Zenith Global European Kefir Report 2019

Zenith Global Report

European Kefir Report An overview of the European kefir market

2019

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Contents Section 1.Introduction and scope Executive Summary European kefir market overview European kefir opportunities Kefir market analysis: Russia Ukraine

Poland Germany UK

Brand profiles

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Introduction and scope

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1. Introduction and scope Overview Commentary

Scope European coverage of the kefir market, including historic data and future outlook of the market such as the category size and growth, kefir variants and packaging, price per litre and its comparison with other dairy fermented beverages, consumer profile, top players, kefir SWOT analysis and new product launches.

The data presented in this report covers the following countries

•

East Europe: Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine

•

West Europe: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK

Katarzyna Witek Insight Manager

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1. Introduction and scope Definition Kefir •

Kefir is a fermented milk drink made by adding a live culture of yeast and bacteria (the so-called ‘kefir grains’) to milk and leaving it to ferment at room temperature for around 24 hours. The microorganisms in the kefir grains multiply and ferment the sugars in the milk, turning it into kefir. The grains are then strained and transferred to a fresh jar of milk to be used again for a new batch, while the strained kefir is ready to drink.

•

Traditional kefir is made from cow’s milk or goat’s milk.

•

Dairy-free versions of kefir can be made with plant milk, such as coconut, rice and soy.

•

Kefir is sour in taste and slightly fizzy due to carbon dioxide, which is the end product of the fermentation process.

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Executive summary

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2. Executive summary Key findings Commentary

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European kefir market overview

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3. European kefir market overview Sub-regions’ kefir volume and value share Kefir volume share by sub-region, 2018

50.0% 50.0% East Europe West Europe

Kefir value share by sub-region, 2018

40.0% East Europe West Europe 60.0%

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Commentary

3. European kefir market overview Kefir market volume and value Commentary

Kefir market volume and % growth 700

6.0%

600

5.0%

500

4.0%

400 3.0% 300 2.0%

200

1.0%

100 0

0.0% 2013

2014

2015

2016

Volume in million litres

2017

2018

% change

Kefir market value and % growth 720 700 680 660 640 620 600 580 560 540

10.0%

10.0%

12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

5.0%

2.0% 0.0% 2013

2014

2015

2016

Value in million Euros

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10.0%

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2017 % change

2018

3. European kefir market overview Top 4 kefir consumption countries Commentary

Top 4 countries by volume, 2013 20.0% 20.0%

Country a

Country b Country c Country d

20.0% 20.0%

20.0%

Others

Top 4 countries by volume, 2018

20.0% Country a Country b Country c

20.0%

40.0%

Country d Others

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10.0%

3. European kefir market overview Kefir variants and packaging Kefir variants

Kefir types - % volume share, 2018

Commentary

50.0%

50.0%

Plain kefir

Flavoured kefir Kefir packaging

Packaging volume % share, 2018

Commentary

20.0% 25.0% 10.0%

20.0% 25.0% Plastic bottles

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Plastic pouches

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Cartons

Plastic cups

Others

3. European kefir market overview Kefir price evolution and comparison with other categories Commentary

Kefir price evolution

Euro 4.00 3.00 2.00

1.00 0.00

2013 2014 2015 Average price per litre (ppl) Ukraine ppl Germany ppl

2018 price per litre Euro

Country

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Kefir

Drinking yoghurt

2016

2017 2018 Russia ppl Poland ppl UK ppl

Buttermilk

Ryazhenka

2019f

Sour milk

3. European kefir market overview Consumer profile Commentary

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3. European kefir market overview Kefir market forecast Commentary

Kefir volume share by sub-region, 2023

25.0% East Europe West Europe

75.0%

Top 4 countries by volume, 2023

Country a

30.0%

40.0%

Country b Country c Country d Others

10.0% 10.0% 16

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10.0%

3. European kefir market overview Kefir market forecast Commentary

Kefir market volume and % growth 1,200

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

6.0%

5.0%

1,000

5.0%

800

4.0%

600

3.0%

400

2.0%

200

1.0%

0

0.0% 2018

2019f

2020f

2021f

2022f

Volume in million litres

2023f % change

Kefir market value and % growth 1,620 1,600 1,580 1,560 1,540 1,520 1,500 1,480 1,460 1,440

25.0%

20.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0%

10.0%

10.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0%

2018

2019f

2020f

2021f

Value in million Euros

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10.0%

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2022f % change

2023f

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European kefir opportunities

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4. European kefir opportunities Highest growth countries Countries with the highest volume CAGR % 2018-23 country d

20.0%

country c

20.0%

country b

30.0%

country a

30.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

Kefir market size in the highest growth countries Million litres 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

country a country b country c country d

2018

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2023

Commentary

4. European kefir opportunities Countries with the highest opportunities Volume CAGR % 2018-23 45%

Countries with the biggest volume gains between 2018 and 2023

Kefir dynamics by country - forecast

country g

30.0

country f

15.0

Bubble size shows 2023 volume country e

40%

10.0

country d 35%

country c

country, 30.0%

30% 25%

country, 15.0%

15% country, 5.0%

country, 10.0% country, 5.0%

0% 0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

-5%

Per capita consumption in 2023f (litres)

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country b

5.0

country a

5.0

Commentary country, 15.0%

5%

15.0

0.0 country, 20.0%

20%

10%

20.0

3.00

3.50

Additional volume in million litres

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

4. European kefir opportunities Kefir SWOT analysis

S

Strengths

Commentary

O

Opportunities

Commentary

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W

Weaknesses

Commentary

T

Threats

Commentary

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Country

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5. Country kefir market overview Kefir market volume and value Commentary

Kefir market volume and % growth 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

5.0%

5.0%

6.0% 4.0%

4.0% 4.0%

5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%

2013

2014

2015

2016

Volume in million litres

2017

2018

% change

Kefir market value and % growth 720 700 680 660 640 620 600 580 560 540

0.0% -2.0% -5.0%

-4.0% -6.0%

-10.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-10.0%

-10.0% -12.0% 2013

2014

2015

2016

Value in million Euros

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-5.0%

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2017 % change

2018

5. Country kefir market overview Kefir variants and packaging Kefir variants

Kefir types - % volume share, 2018

Commentary

20.0%

80.0%

Plain kefir

Flavoured kefir

Packaging volume % share, 2018

Kefir packaging 25.0%

Commentary 25.0%

25.0%

25.0% Plastic pouches

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Plastic bottles

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Cartons

Others

5. Country kefir market overview Kefir price evolution and comparison with other categories Commentary

Kefir price evolution

Local currency

Euro

65.00

1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00

60.00 55.00 50.00 45.00 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Price per litre in the local currency Price per litre in Euros

2018 price per litre

Local currency Euro

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Kefir

Drinking yoghurt

Ryazhenka

Prostokvasha

Regional fermented products

5. Country kefir market overview Consumer profile Commentary

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5. Country kefir market overview Top players and innovations Top players

Top 5 kefir producers by volume, 2018

Commentary

10.0% 10.0% 50.0%

10.0%

10.0%

producer

Innovations Commentary

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10.0% producer producer

producer

producer

producer

5. Country kefir market overview Kefir market forecast Commentary

Kefir market volume and % growth 700

0.0%

600

-0.5%

500

-1.0%

400

-1.5%

300

-2.0%

200

-2.5%

100 0

-3.0% -3.0%

-3.0%

-3.0%

-3.0%

-3.0%

-3.0%

2018

2019f

2020f

2021f

2022f

2023f

Volume in million litres

-3.5%

% change

Kefir market value and % growth 700

16.0%

600

15.0%

15.0%

15.0%

12.0%

500 400

14.0% 10.0%

10.0%

10.0%

10.0%

8.0%

300

6.0%

200

4.0%

100

2.0%

0

0.0% 2018

2019

2020

2021

Value in million Euros

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2022 % change

2023

5. Country kefir market overview Kefir SWOT analysis

S

Strengths

Commentary

O

Opportunities

Commentary

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W

Weaknesses

Commentary

T

Threats

Commentary

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Conclusion

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6 Conclusion Key summary points Commentary

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Brand profiles

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7. Brand profiles Flavoured kefir

Product origin

Website: Commentary

Product information:

Launch date: Positioning and channels:

Pack size and type:

Price:

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