Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018 - web sample

Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

Zenith Global

2 4 / 0 9 / 2 0 1 8

September 2018

Global aseptic packaging report 2018 An in-depth analysis of the global aseptic packaging market

Š Zenith Global Ltd 2018

Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

Introduction

2 4 / 0 9 / 2 0 1 8

The Global Aseptic Packaging report is a joint report by industry experts Warrick Research and Zenith Global.

This report gives the results of a survey of world markets for aseptic packaging and packaging systems and for aseptically packed beverages and food products. The survey was carried out from April to August 2018.

The report is divided into various sections: 

World Markets for Aseptic Packaging



Regional and Country Markets for Aseptic Packaging



Technical Developments and Supplier Profiles

The report gives detailed market figures and five year forecasts for milk, beverages and food products using aseptic filling technology. It also provides a detailed analysis of the competitive position of aseptic systems in comparison to alternative processing and filling methods.

Definition of aseptic packaging Aseptic Packaging is generally defined as the brining of pre-sterilised products with packaging rendered sterile, and filling the product into the pack in a sterile environment designed to prevent recontamination. Sterilisation involves the elimination of micro-organisms, which might later cause the product to deteriorate.

Like most definitions, this can be subject to differing interpretations, and does not provide an automatic classification of which systems can be considered ‘aseptic’.

In this survey, we have covered the systems and applications which are generally considered ‘aseptic’ in the dairy, beverage and food processing industry. We also look at those systems generally defined as ‘ultra-clean’, which may use the same sterilising principles as aseptic systems, but do not achieve the same level of sterility.

Report coverage The report covers retail and catering applications for aseptic packaging in the beverage and food industry (pack sizes up to 25 litres/kg). The report does not cover alcoholic beverages, and does not cover medical or pharmaceutical applications.

Survey method The survey involved over 500 interviews with dairy, beverage and food processors, processing and packaging machinery suppliers, material suppliers, trade associations and others.

A comprehensive study was made of published articles and data, and sources of information on the Internet.

The report also draws on our large database of information from previous surveys in these markets.

Market estimates and forecasts Market estimates and forecasts utilise information from a range of sources - dairy, beverage and food processors, equipment suppliers, trade associations and research organisations. The figures in the report are our own estimates unless otherwise stated in the text. Market size figures normally include estimates of both retail and food service applications.

Market forecasts take into account both likely market developments and technical developments. For maximum clarity forecasts are normally presented as single figure estimates rather than ranges, and for a single future year.

© Zenith Global Ltd 2018

Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

2 4 / 0 9 World and regional market estimates and forecasts / 2 The report covers 38 countries, representing the major global markets. Please note, that within 38 countries, 0 there is a partial coverage of ‘Other dairy products’ and of ‘Other products’ due to their negligible volumes 1 in some markets. ‘Other dairy products’ represent flavoured milk, milk drinks, cream, creamer, soft ice mix8and

thick shake base, yogurt and desserts, and ‘Other products’ include soups and sauces, tomato products and baby foods.

The regional overviews have been carefully grossed up to represent the total volume for the region by taking into account those markets not covered directly in the report.

Note Figures have been rounded to the nearest million therefore slight discrepancies in totals may occur due to rounding issues.

Liability Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that the information presented in this document is accurate and that the opinions expressed are sound, Zenith Global and Warrick Research cannot be made liable for any errors or omissions or for any losses or consequential losses resulting from decisions based on its contents.

Copyright All copyright in this document is reserved.

We hope that you find Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018 a useful tool in your business planning. We update our research and databases on a regular basis and always welcome any comments or suggestions about possible improvements.

Arunkumar Anbalagan Senior Insight Analyst Zenith Global Limited

© Zenith Global Ltd 2018

Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

definitions

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Dairy 

White milk - white drinking milk - including both preserved and fresh drinking milks, does not include powdered, condensed or evaporated milks; long life / preserved milk - UHT and sterilised; fresh milk pasteurised and untreated; other dairy milk including functional milks, calcium-enriched and lactose reduced.



ESL milk - Extended shelf life milk.



UHT milk - Ultra high temperature milk.

Other dairy products (including dairy alternatives) include: 

Flavoured milk - traditional flavoured milks - white milk to which some type of flavour and often colour and stabilisers have been added; this segment also includes lactose-reduced flavoured milk; other flavoured milk drinks including carbonated milk drinks.



Baby milk - ready-to-drink milk produced for babies. Excluding baby milk powders and foods.



Condensed milk - milk that has been thickened by evaporation and sweetened.



Cream - composed of the higher-butterfat layer skimmed from the top of milk before homogenisation.



Soya and other dairy free alternatives - all dairy milk alternatives, such as soya, almond, oat, etc., as well as dairy-free creams and deserts. Everything that is a dairy-free alternative of traditional dairy products.



Creamers - a cream or milk substitute for adding to coffee or tea.



Soft ice mix and thick shake base - milk base (fresh or preserved) flavoured with syrup, then frozen and whipped.



Yogurts and desserts - traditional and flavoured yogurts, yogurt and other dairy-based desserts as well as custards and rice puddings.



Drinking yogurt - a typical drinkable yogurt is simply a thinner sort of yogurt, easy to drink. Kefir is a typical example, including other regional alternatives e.g. Rayeb (Egypt), Lassi (India, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh), etc.

Beverages 

Fruit juice - 100% fruit juice and pure juice.



Nectars - fruit-based still drinks with 25-99% fruit content.



Juice drinks - fruit-based drinks with fruit content of 5% to 24%. Generally these will be still drinks that have a fruit positioning but are not iced teas or another specific category.



Sports drinks - beverages using scientific claims about the improvement of physical performance during sport and aiding recovery.



Energy drinks - functional energy drinks or body and mind stimulation drinks.



RTD tea and coffee - tea/coffee-based or tea/coffee-flavoured beverages in a ready-to-drink format, still or sparkling. Drinks that portray themselves as tea/coffee based.

© Zenith Global Ltd 2018

Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

Food products

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8



Soups - a liquid dish, typically savoury and made by boiling meat, fish, or vegetables in stock or



Sauces - all kind of sauces, ranging from mustard, mayonnaise, salad dressing, chocolate, vanilla sauce, ready custard, etc. excluding ketchup.



Tomato products - all tomato based products, including ketchup, tomato purée, crushed, passata, chopped and sun-dried tomatoes.



Baby food - all ready to eat baby food.

Types of packaging Packaging types include: 

Cartons*



PET bottles



HDPE bottles



Plastic pots



Bag-in-box



Pouches*



Others - cans, glass, stick packs plus other variants.

*Please note Tetra Fino pouch is classified as a carton due to the material used in Russia, Ukraine, Pakistan and Egypt. In Colombia and China it is quantified as a pouch.

© Zenith Global Ltd 2018

Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

WORLD MARKET OVERVIEW

X

A.

KEY RESULTS …………………………………………………………………………………… X

B.

WORLD MARKET FOR ASEPTIC PACKAGING BY REGION ……………………………… X

C.

WORLD MARKET FOR ASEPTIC PACKAGING BY PRODUCT …………………………… X

D.

E.

C.1

White Milk

X

C.2

Other Dairy Products (including dairy alternatives)

X

C.3

Beverages

X

C.4

Food Products

X

WORLD MARKET FOR ASEPTIC PACKAGING BY PACK TYPE ......................................X D.1

Overview

X

D.2

White Milk

X

D.3

Other Dairy Products (including dairy alternatives)

X

D.4

Beverages

X

D.5

Food Products

X

ASEPTIC PACKAGING INSTALLATIONS………………………………………………………X E.1

Aseptic Packaging Installations

X

E.2

New Installations

X

F.

THE MARKET FOR ASEPTIC PACKAGING - TONNAGE AND VALUE…………………….X

G.

OPPORTUNITIES FOR PACKAGING MATERIAL SUPPLIERS……………………………..X

H.

I.

G.1

Carton Board

X

G.2

Polymers

X

G.3

Foil

X

OPPORTUNITIES FOR PACKAGING AND SYSTEM SUPPLIERS………………………… X H.1

Carton Systems

X

H.2

Plastic Bottle Filling Systems

X

H.3

Plastic Pot Fillers

X

H.4

Pouch Fillers

X

OPPORTUNITIES FOR DAIRIES, BEVERAGE COMPANIES, FOOD PROCESSORS….. X I.1

Opportunities for Dairies, Beverage Companies, Food Processors

X

I.2

Co-Packing Opportunities

X

I.3

Short Life and Aseptic Products

X

REGION: REGIONAL OVERVIEW

X

A.

COVERAGE…………………………………………………………………………………………X

B.

OVERVIEW………………………………………………………………………………………….X

C.

B.1

The Use of Aseptic Packaging - By Product

X

B.2

The Use of Aseptic Packaging - By Pack type

X

WHITE MILK………………………………………………………………………………………...X C.1

Market Size and Trends

X

C.2

UHT Milk and Use of Aseptic Packaging

X

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Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

D.

E.

F.

OTHER DAIRY PRODUCTS (INCLUDING DAIRY ALTERNATIVES)……………………… X D.1

Market Size and Trends

X

D.2

Use of Aseptic Packaging

X

BEVERAGES……………………………………………………………………………………… X E.1

Market Size and Trends

X

E.2

Processing and Packaging of Ambient Products

X

E.3

Use of Aseptic Packaging

X

FOOD PRODUCTS………………………………………………………………………………. X F.1

Use of Aseptic Packaging

COUNTRY A.

B.

C.

D.

E.

X

X

OVERVIEW……………………………………………………………………………………….. X A.1

The Use of Aseptic Packaging - By Product

X

A.2

The Use of Aseptic Packaging - By Pack Type

X

WHITE MILK………………………………………………………………………………………. X B.1

Market Size and Trends

X

B.2

Suppliers

X

B.3

UHT Milk and Use of Aseptic Packaging

X

B.4

Future Trends

X

OTHER DAIRY PRODUCTS (INCLUDING DAIRY ALTERNATIVES)……………………… X C.1

Market Size and Trends

X

C.2

Use of Aseptic Packaging

X

C.3

Flavoured Milk

X

C.4

Baby Milk

X

C.5

Condensed Milk

X

C.6

Cream

X

C.7

Soya (Dairy Free Alternatives)

X

C.8

Creamer

X

C.9

Soft Ice Mix and Thick Shake Base

X

C.10

Yogurts and Desserts

X

C.11

Drinking Yogurt

X

BEVERAGES………………………………………………………………………………………. X D.1

Market Size and Trends

X

D.2

Suppliers

X

D.3

Processing and Packaging of Ambient Products

X

D.4

Use of Aseptic Packaging

X

D.5

Future Trends

X

FOOD PRODUCTS……………………………………………………………………………….. X E.1

Market Size and Trends

X

E.2

Soups and Sauces

X

© Zenith Global Ltd 2018

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Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

E.3

Tomato Products

X

E.4

Baby Foods

X

ASEPTIC PROCESSING AND PACKAGING

X

A.

OVERVIEW………………………………………………………………………………………… X

B.

LONG LIFE FOOD AND DRINK PRODUCTS…………………………………………………. X

C.

ASEPTIC PROCESSING AND PACKAGING…………………………………………………. X

D.

BENEFITS AND DRAWBACKS OF ASEPTIC PROCESSING AND PACKAGING……….. X

E.

THE HEAT TREATMENT PROCESS…………………………………………………………… X

F.

PROCESSING OF PARTICULATES…………………………………………………………… X F.1

G.

Alternative Heat Treatment Methods for Particulates

X

THE PACKAGING STERILISATION PROCESS……………………………………………… X G.1

Hydrogen Peroxide

X

G.2

Hydrogen Peroxide and Peracetic Acid

X

G.3

Sterilisation by Heat

X

G.4

Electron Beam Sterilisation

X

G.5

Other Methods

X

H.

EFFECTIVENESS OF PACKAGING STERILISATION SYSTEMS…………………………. X

I.

SHELF LIFE REQUIREMENTS………………………………………………………………… X I.1

Ambient and Chilled Distribution

X

I.2

Processing Systems for Extended Shelf Life Products

X

I.3

Cool Chain Temperatures

X

I.4

Aseptic and Ultra Clean Filling Systems

X

I.5

Use of Aseptic Fillers for ESL Products

X

ASEPTIC FILLING - COMPETITIVE POSITION AND TECHNICAL DEVELOPMENTS A.

B.

X

OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY OF ASEPTIC FILLING LINES……………………………….. X A.1

Overview

X

A.2

Key Factors Influencing Line Efficiency

X

A.3

Product and Pack Change

X

A.4

Maintenance and Cleaning

X

A.5

Unscheduled Stoppages

X

A.6

Product and Pack Loss

X

A.7

Capacity Utilisation and Operating Hours

X

A.8

Line Efficiency - Reasons for Loss of Output

X

COMPETITIVE POSITION OF ASEPTIC FILLING LINES…………………………………… X B.1

Hot Fill v. Aseptic - Overview

X

B.2

Choice of Hot Filling and Aseptic Filling

X

B.3

Capital Cost

X

B.4

Diligence/Tolerance

X

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Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

C.

B.5

Running Costs

X

B.6

Ease of Operation

X

B.7

Product Quality

X

B.8

Pack Design

X

B.9

Pack Cost

X

B.10

Oxygen Barrier

X

B.11

Energy Use and Costs

X

B.12

Water and Chemical Costs

X

ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS ………………………………………………………. X C.1

Overview

X

C.2

Life Cycle Analysis and Environmental Impact

X

C.3

Renewable Packaging

X

C.4

Recycling and Re-use of Packaging

X

C.5

Recycling Rates

X

C.6

Packaging Material Use - Weight of Packaging

X

C.7

Energy Use

X

C.8

Water Use

X

C.9

Chemical Use

X

ASEPTIC PACKAGING SYSTEMS - DEVELOPMENTS AND SUPPLIERS A.

B.

C.

D.

X

ASEPTIC CARTON SYSTEMS………………………………………………………………….. X A.1

Overview

X

A.2

Developments

X

THERMOFORMED PLASTIC CONTAINERS…………………………………………………. X B.1

Overview

X

B.2

Developments

X

PLASTIC BOTTLES………………………………………………………………………………. X C.1

Overview

X

C.2

Developments

X

POUCHES AND SACHETS……………………………………………………………………… X D.1

Overview

X

D.2

Developments

X

E.

BAG-IN-BOX………………………………………………………………………………………. X

F.

GLASS CONTAINERS…………………………………………………………………………… X

G.

METAL CANS……………………………………………………………………………………... X

H.

AEROSOLS………………………………………………………………………………………... X

I.

PLASTIC TRAYS………………………………………………………………………………….. X

J.

STICK PACKS…………………………………………………………………………………….. X

K.

PACKAGING SPECIFICATIONS, MATERIALS AND WEIGHTS…………………………… X K.1

Cartons

© Zenith Global Ltd 2018

X

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Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

K.2

Plastic Bottles

X

K.3

Plastic Pouches

X

K.4

Plastic Pots

X

K.5

Total Material Use

X

K.6

Material Use - Tonnes and Value

X

SUPPLIERS OF ASEPTIC FILLING EQUIPMENT AND PACKAGING

X

A.

INDUSTRY STRUCTURE……………………………………………………………………….. X

B.

SALES OF ASEPTIC PACKAGING EQUIPMENT AND MATERIALS……………………… X

C.

SUPPLIER PROFILES…………………………………………………………………………… X C.1

Alfa Laval Parma (Astepo) - Italy

X

C.2

Benco SpA - Italy

X

C.3

Dai Nippon Printing - Japan

X

C.4

Ecolean - Sweden

X

C.5

Elecster Oyj - Finland

X

C.6

Elopak AS - Norway

X

C.7

FBR-Elpo

X

C.8

GEA Group (Germany) - Procomac Spa - Italy

X

C.9

Goglio SpA - Italy

X

C.10

Greatview Aseptic Packaging Company - China

X

C.11

Guangdong Yuandong Food Packaging Machinery Co. Ltd - China

X

C.12

IMA Group - Italy

X

C.13

IPI - Italy

X

C.14

L Jiangsu Packaging Machinery - China

X

C.15

KHS Maschinen AG - Germany

X

C.16

Krones AG - Germany

X

C.17

Lamican - Finland

X

C.18

Liquibox - USA

X

C.19

NSM-Packtec GmbH - Germany

X

C.20

Rapak Ltd (DS Smith plc) - United Kingdom

X

C.21

Robert Bosch Packaging (inc Ampack) - Germany

X

C.22

Sealed Air Corporation - USA

X

C.23

Serac - France

X

C.24

Shanghai Skylong Aseptic Packaging Material Co. - China

X

C.25

Shibuya Corporation - Japan (Shibuya Hoppmann -USA)

X

C.26

Shikoku Kakoki Co. Ltd - Japan

X

C.27

Sidel - France

X

C.28

SIG Combibloc GmbH - Germany

X

C.29

Stork Food and Dairy Systems - Netherlands (JBT Foodtech)

X

C.30

Tetra Pak - Sweden

X

© Zenith Global Ltd 2018

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Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

D.

C.31

Thimonnier SA - France

X

C.32

Xenos - New Zealand

X

C.33

Yantai Calf (KaiFu) food packaging system machinery Co. - China

X

C.34

Zhenjiang Senmao Package Material Co. - China

X

C.35

XINJUFENG Technology Packaging Co. Ltd - China

X

OTHER SUPPLIERS……………………………………………………………………………… X

© Zenith Global Ltd 2018

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Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

Sample Country

© Zenith Global Ltd 2018

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Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

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Country A. overview 

Some X billion litres of products were aseptically filled in Country in 2017. Usage of aseptic filling has increased annually by X% over the past five years driven by an increase in demand for X products, however, chilled distribution of fresh products is still favoured in Y and Z sectors.



Most white milk products available in Country are chilled products, with only X% available in long life ambient formats. In 2017, the total white milk market reached X billion litres, of which X million were UHT. Usually, aseptic filling is more common for A, B and C.



In 2017 in the total beverage category, PET bottles were the leading format for aseptic filling representing X% of aseptic volumes. Cartons are the second most commonly used format for aseptic beverages with a volume share of X%.

A.1 the use of aseptic packaging - by product 

In 2017, the total aseptic market accounted for X billion litres representing X billion units. While the aseptic market in volume is set to increase at a CAGR of X% from 2017 to 2022, the aseptic market in units is expected to decline at an X% CAGR over the same period primarily because of an anticipated decline in X category.



In volume terms, the X category dominated the market with a share of X%. It is followed by Y category and Z category. All categories are forecast to grow until 2022 apart from X category which is driven by a decline in Y products. This is partly as a result of a shift from ambient to fresh products which are perceived as healthier.



In unit terms, X category holds the lion’s share of the market with X billion units thanks to the dominance of small packaging formats compared to other categories and a much lower reliance on bulk or large pack aseptic products intended for foodservice distribution.



X category is set to see the strongest growth over the forecast period in aseptic packages, whilst Y category was the top performer over the review period. aseptic packaging use by product (million litres), 2012-2022f

White Milk

%16-17 CAGR%12-17 CAGR%17-22f

2012

2016

2017

2022f

405

420

427

450

+1.6

+1.1

+1.1

+2.0

+1.5

Other Dairy Products

2,303

2,495

2,540

2,740

+1.8

Beverages

3,022

3,051

3,136

3,553

+2.8

+0.7

+2.5

Food Products

4,781

4,351

4,298

3,880

-1.2

-2.1

-2.0

10,512

10,317

10,401

10,623

+0.8

-0.2

+0.4

Total so urce: Zenith Glo bal

© Zenith Global Ltd 2018

Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

2 4 / 0 9 aseptic packaging use by product (million units), 2012-2022f / 2 %16-17 CAGR%12-17 CAGR%17-22f 2012 2016 2017 2022f 0 1 8 +0.5 +0.6 +0.7 471 483 486 504

White Milk Other Dairy Products Beverages Food Products

Total

12,402

12,931

12,901

12,750

-0.2

+0.8

-0.2

6,558

6,111

6,151

6,486

+0.7

-1.3

+1.1

-0.5

-2.1

+0.0

-0.2

4,401

4,331

4,296

3,864

-0.8

23,833

23,856

23,833

23,604

-0.1

so urce: Zenith Glo bal

A.2 the use of aseptic packaging - by pack type 

Cartons are the leading aseptic packaging in Country, accounting for X billion litres and representing X billion units. This pack type has experienced a slow performance over the past five years and is expected to pursue its deterioration ongoing, but at a slower rate than in previous years, at X%.



PET bottles is the second largest aseptic category with a total volume of X billion litres, accounting for X billion units. It is the category with the highest CAGR over the review and forecast periods and presents strong opportunities for growth. From 2012 to 2017, single-serve portion size PET bottles experienced the most dynamic growth but is foreseen to slightly slow down over the next five years. On the other hand, family size PET bottles grew at a slower rate than smaller formats are will experience an accelerated growth from 2017 to 2022. Much of this is driven by fast-growing categories including X, Y and Z categories. aseptic packaging use by pack type/size (million litres), 2012-2022f 2012

Cartons - Family (0.5 litre and over)

2,959

2016

2,771

2017

2,754

2022f

%16-17 CAGR%12-17 CAGR%17-22f

2,585

-0.6

-1.4

-1.3

-2.1

-0.9

-5.1

-3.8

2,103

1,904

1,888

1,807

-0.9

HDPE Bottles (0.5 litre and over)

82

67

63

52

-5.3

HDPE Bottles (up to 499 ml)

43

38

36

39

-3.7

-3.4

+1.3

+3.8

+3.9

Cartons - Portion (up to 499ml)

PET Bottles (0.5 litre and over) PET Bottles (up to 499ml) Plastic pouches (0.5 litre and over) Plastic pouches (up to 499ml)

1,469

1,677

1,768

2,146

+5.5

404

483

503

585

+4.0

+4.5

+3.1

+0.1

+0.2

+0.2

1,362

1,372

1,374

1,385

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-0.2

-0.3

+0.3

-1.2

Plastic pots (over 50ml)

335

333

332

327

-0.3

Plastic pots (under 50ml)

83

85

84

79

-1.2

1,647

1,560

1,559

1,519

-0.1

-1.1

-0.5

+10.5

+19.9

-0.2

+0.4

Bag in Box Other - glass, cans, aerosols, stick

Total so urce: Zenith Glo bal

© Zenith Global Ltd 2018

24

28

40

100

+44.0

10,512

10,317

10,401

10,623

+0.8

Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

2 4 / 0 9 aseptic packaging use by pack type/size (million units), 2012-2022f / 2 %16-17 CAGR%12-17 CAGR%17-22f 2012 2016 2017 2022f 0 1 8 -1.0 -1.7 -1.8 Cartons - Family (0.5 litre and over) 2,653 2,459 2,434 2,224

Cartons - Portion (up to 499ml)

7,424

7,034

6,951

6,608

-1.2

-1.3

92

77

74

64

-4.4

-4.2

-2.7

-3.2

+1.4

HDPE Bottles (0.5 litre and over) HDPE Bottles (up to 499 ml) PET Bottles (0.5 litre and over)

113

100

96

103

-3.5

1,527

1,749

1,856

2,278

+6.1

+4.0

+4.2

+5.1

+2.8

+0.3

+0.3

1,239

1,533

1,589

1,823

+3.7

Plastic pouches (0.5 litre and over)

573

579

580

588

+0.2

Plastic pouches (up to 499ml)

-

-

-

-

PET Bottles (up to 499ml)

-1.0

-

-

-

-0.4

-0.4

Plastic pots (over 50ml)

2,921

2,878

2,865

2,806

-0.4

Plastic pots (under 50ml)

6,893

7,083

7,000

6,583

-1.2

+0.3

-1.2

-1.2

-0.6

Bag in Box

256

241

241

234

-0.1

Other - glass, cans, aerosols, stick

141

123

147

293

+19.7

+0.9

+14.8

23,833

23,856

23,833

23,604

-0.1

+0.0

-0.2

Total so urce: Zenith Glo bal

B. white milk B.1 market size and trends 

Production of white milk in Country in 2017 reached some X billion litres. The category volume has been shrinking since 2012 and is expected to pursue its decline at a slightly slower CAGR until 2022. The decline follows several years of little change, when slowly declining per capita consumption was balanced by an increasing population. Ambient long life products accounted for X% of the market, of which X% is UHT.



Consumers in Country are becoming more accustomed to accepting dairy products in ambient distribution. This is likely to lead to marginal growth in the market for aseptically filled products. There is some anticipated growth in the food service market too as some coffee chains use UHT milk which will see an anticipated 2017-2022 CAGR of X%.

production of white milk (million litres), 2012-2022f 2012

2016

2017

2022f

%16-17 CAGR%12-17 CAGR%17-22f

Short life Chilled:

22,756

21,116

20,511

18,767

-2.9

-2.1

-1.8

Pasteurised

2,503

2,086

1,924

1,482

-7.8

-5.1

-5.1

-1.7

-1.4

ESL Long life Ambient:

20,253

19,030

18,588

17,285

-2.3

405

420

427

450

+1.6

+1.1

+1.1

+1.6

+1.1

+1.1

-

-

-

-2.8

-2.0

-1.7

UHT

405

420

427

450

Sterilised

-

-

-

-

23,161

21,536

20,939

19,218

Total so urce: Zenith Glo bal

© Zenith Global Ltd 2018

Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

2 4 / 0 9 / 2 0 1 Other 8

B.2 suppliers 

The leading producers of while milk are X and Y, who have a combined market share of over X%. suppliers include A, B, C and D, with E gaining market share rapidly thanks to its acquisitions in 2017 of F and in 2015 of G.

B.3 UHT milk and use of aseptic packaging 

X% of UHT milk is in packaged in cartons in 2017. Over the past five years, HDPE bottles have slowly declined market share of the UHT milk market, holding just X% in 2017. The national brands tend to package in PET bottles, whilst supermarkets tend to prefer cartons and discount stores favour HDPE which offer a price advantage to consumers.



Portion carton packs have seen the strongest growth over the 2012-2017 period, with lunchbox sized cartons between 200-300ml rising in popularity due to government-sponsored schemes for the consumption of better-for-you beverages in school children aged 6-13.

UHT white milk aseptic packaging use by pack type/size (million litres), 2012-2022f

Cartons - Family (0.5 litre and over)

%16-17 CAGR%12-17 CAGR%17-22f

2012

2016

2017

2022f

308

327

336

361

+2.7

+1.7

+1.5

69

70

70

71

-0.4

+0.3

+0.4

+0.0

-0.3

Cartons - Portion (up to 499ml) HDPE Bottles (0.5 litre and over)

4

4

4

4

-0.2

HDPE Bottles (up to 499 ml)

4

3

3

2

-13.5

-8.3

-3.6

-

-

-

-

-

-

PET Bottles (0.5 litre and over)

-

-

-

PET Bottles (up to 499ml)

-

-

-

-

-

Plastic pouches (0.5 litre and over)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Plastic pouches (up to 499ml)

-

-

-

-

-

Plastic pots (over 50ml)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-8.4

-6.0

-4.9

-

-

-

+1.6

+1.1

+1.1

Plastic pots (under 50ml)

-

Bag in Box

20

16

15

12

Other - glass, cans, aerosols, stick

-

-

-

-

Total

405

420

427

450

so urce: Zenith Glo bal

© Zenith Global Ltd 2018

Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

2 4 / 0 9 UHT white milk - aseptic packaging use by pack type/size (million units), 2012-2022f / 2 %16-17 CAGR%12-17 CAGR%17-22f 2012 2016 2017 2022f 0 1 8 +2.7 +1.7 +1.5 Cartons - Family (0.5 litre and over) 163 173 177 191

Cartons - Portion (up to 499ml)

-0.4

+0.3

+0.4

4

-0.2

+0.0

-0.3

5

-13.5

-8.3

-3.6

-

-

-

-

-

-

292

297

296

302

4

4

4

HDPE Bottles (0.5 litre and over) HDPE Bottles (up to 499 ml)

9

PET Bottles (0.5 litre and over)

-

7 -

6 -

PET Bottles (up to 499ml)

-

-

-

-

-

Plastic pouches (0.5 litre and over)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Plastic pouches (up to 499ml)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Plastic pots (over 50ml)

-

-

-

-

Plastic pots (under 50ml)

-

-

-

-

Bag in Box

3

3

2

2

Other - glass, cans, aerosols, stick

-

-

-

-

Total

471

483

486

504

-

-

-

-8.4

-6.0

-4.9

-

-

-

+0.5

+0.6

+0.7

so urce: Zenith Glo bal

B.4 future trends 

Ambient distribution of dairy products will continue previous trends to grow over the forecast period, gently challenging cold-chain. Growth in ambient white milk is likely to be attributed to the acceleration of aseptically packaged higher value-added dairy products, as well as changing demographics. The market for UHT white milk is anticipated to grow steadily at an estimated CAGR of X% to 2022.



Most UHT milk will continue to be in cartons, with little reliance on bottles and even less demand for plastic pouch formats.

C. other dairy products (including dairy alternatives) C.1 market size and trends 

In 2017, the market for long life aseptically filled ambient products in Country was more than X million litres. There is substantial use of aseptic filling for dairy alternative products, flavoured milk and desserts.

In the period to 2022, aseptic filling for other dairy is forecast to grow at a CAGR of X%. production of other dairy products (million litres), 2012-2022f 2012

2016

2017

2022f

%16-17 CAGR%12-17 CAGR%17-22f

Short life Chilled:

4,968

5,262

5,277

5,386

+0.3

+1.2

+0.4

Pasteurised

2,858

3,039

3,045

3,141

+0.2

+1.3

+0.6

+1.1

+0.1

ESL Long life Ambient: UHT Sterilised

Total so urce: Zenith Glo bal

© Zenith Global Ltd 2018

2,110

2,223

2,232

2,245

+0.4

3,210

3,424

3,486

3,744

+1.8

+1.7

+1.4

2,303

2,495

2,540

2,740

+1.8

+2.0

+1.5

+0.8

+1.2

+1.4

+0.8

907

929

946

1,004

+1.8

8,178

8,686

8,763

9,130

+0.9

Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

2 4 / 0 9 / 2 0 1 plastic 8

C.2 use of aseptic packaging 

Almost X% of aseptically filled product volumes are in cartons, but there is also noteworthy use of bottles and plastic pots. In the period to 2022, the fastest growth will be seen in PET bottles, accelerating at a rate of X% for larger pack sizes and X% annually for under 500ml sizes.



Growth in PET is being driven by a growing demand for flavoured milk, more suitable for on-the-go consumption than large carton formats.

ODP - aseptic packaging use by pack type/size (million litres), 2012-2022f 2012

Cartons - Family (0.5 litre and over)

1,039

2016

1,134

2017

1,162

2022f

%16-17 CAGR%12-17 CAGR%17-22f

1,280

+2.5

+2.3

+1.9

+1.4

+1.7

403

423

431

470

+1.9

HDPE Bottles (0.5 litre and over)

71

52

48

33

-7.7

-7.5

-7.0

HDPE Bottles (up to 499 ml)

32

25

24

25

-4.0

-5.4

+1.0

PET Bottles (0.5 litre and over)

116

182

194

241

+6.2

+10.8

+4.5

PET Bottles (up to 499ml)

129

194

201

232

+3.8

+9.3

+2.9

2

2

2

2

0.0

-3.2

0.0

-

-

-

Cartons - Portion (up to 499ml)

Plastic pouches (0.5 litre and over) Plastic pouches (up to 499ml)

-

Plastic pots (over 50ml)

260

254

252

241

-0.8

-0.6

-0.9

Plastic pots (under 50ml)

83

85

84

79

-1.2

+0.3

-1.2

-3.0

-0.9

Bag in Box

-

-

157

136

135

129

-0.9

12

8

7

7

-12.5

-10.3

-0.9

2,303

2,495

2,540

2,740

+1.8

+2.0

+1.5

Other - glass, cans, aerosols, stick

Total

-

so urce: Zenith Glo bal

ODP - aseptic packaging use by pack type/size (million units), 2012-2022f 2012

Cartons - Family (0.5 litre and over) Cartons - Portion (up to 499ml)

2016

2017

2022f

%16-17 CAGR%12-17 CAGR%17-22f

986

1,086

1,115

1,232

+2.7

+2.5

+2.0

1,191

1,253

1,278

1,394

+2.0

+1.4

+1.8

-7.7

-7.5

-7.0

HDPE Bottles (0.5 litre and over)

75

55

51

35

HDPE Bottles (up to 499 ml)

86

69

66

70

-3.8

-5.1

+1.2

+10.2

+4.0

PET Bottles (0.5 litre and over)

122

186

198

241

+6.0

PET Bottles (up to 499ml)

531

793

819

926

+3.3

+9.0

+2.5

1

1

1

1

0.0

-3.2

0.0

-

-

-

Plastic pouches (0.5 litre and over) Plastic pouches (up to 499ml) Plastic pots (over 50ml) Plastic pots (under 50ml) Bag in Box Other - glass, cans, aerosols, stick

Total so urce: Zenith Glo bal

© Zenith Global Ltd 2018

-

-

-

-

2,361

2,291

2,270

2,168

-0.9

-0.8

-0.9

-1.2

+0.3

-1.2

6,893

7,083

7,000

6,583

47

41

41

38

-1.0

-2.9

-1.2

-10.3

-0.9

+0.8

-0.2

110

73

64

61

-12.5

12,402

12,931

12,901

12,750

-0.2

Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

C.3 flavoured milk 

Commentary

2 4 / 0 9 / 2 0 1 8

C.4 baby milk 

Commentary

C.5 condensed milk 

Commentary

C.6 cream 

Commentary

C.7 soya (dairy free alternatives) 

Commentary

C.8 creamers 

Commentary

C.9 soft ice mix and thick shake base 

Commentary

C.10 yogurts and desserts 

Commentary

C.11 drinking yogurt 

Commentary

D. beverages D.1 market size and trends 

In 2017, the market for ambient beverages had reached nearly X billion litres. The market has grown by X% per annum since 2012, with accelerated growth of X% forecasted each year to 2022 driven by the strong anticipated performance of X, Y and Z categories.



Aseptically packaged beverages accounted for X% of ambient volumes, down from 2012 levels which were at X%. Aseptic beverages in the non-dairy segment are further forecasted to decline as an overall percentage of ambient products to just X% of the market by 2022.



Short life products hold X% of the pure juice and nectar markets, and about X% of the juice drinks market thanks to fairly strong chilled distribution in Country compared to the rest of Region. The total market for juices and nectars stood at X billion litres in 2017 having fallen by X% over the last five years. Production has continued to fall steadily as the sector suffers from negative consumer perceptions of high calorie content and high sugar content.

© Zenith Global Ltd 2018

Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018





2 4 / 0 9 Production of RTD tea and coffee has grown strongly as the product is well positioned to meet consumer / demands for convenient caffeination on-the-go. With healthy innovation in these two sectors,2 the production of long life RTD tea and coffee reached nearly X million litres in 2017 with further growth0 set 1 at X% per annum forecast to 2022. Ambient shelf stable products account for X% of total production.8

Production of sports and energy drinks have also continued to grow thanks to the driving force of dominant market leading brands as well as category innovators. The total production in the sector increased by X% from 2012-2017 to pass X million litres of long life products. beverage production (million litres), 2012-2022f 2012

2016

2017

2022f

%16-17 CAGR%12-17 CAGR%17-22f

RTD Tea & Coffee

6,898

8,574

9,300

12,215

+8.5

+6.2

+5.6

Juice and Nectars

7,660

6,856

6,562

6,584

-4.3

-3.0

+0.1

-2.2

-1.4

Juice Drinks

4,677

4,253

4,179

3,902

-1.8

Sports & Energy

7,950

9,700

10,163

12,473

+4.8

+5.0

+4.2

+2.1

+3.1

27,185

29,384

30,204

35,175

+2.8

Short Life

7,313

7,253

7,264

7,845

+0.1

-0.1

+1.6

Long Life

19,872

22,130

22,940

27,330

+3.7

+2.9

+3.6

Total

so urce: Zenith Glo bal

D.2 suppliers 

In the juice and juice drinks market, the major brands are X, Y and Z. The leading producers of own label juices are A, B and C.



The main suppliers of RTD tea are X, Y and Z, with leading brands including A, B, C and D. There is also a good presence of own label in RTD tea.

D.3 processing and packaging of ambient products 

In general, packaging types have remained more or less stable over the review period, with minor shifts in the packaging of ambient beverages towards the use of PET bottles, while the market share of cartons - particularly under 500ml sizes - has marginally declined.



In the long life juices and nectars market, X% of products are in cartons, X% in bottles and most of the remainder in glass. Bottles are gaining market share. The cartons are about predominantly packaged in I litre size, with growing use of 1.5 litre and 2 litre sizes.



Juice drinks use mainly PET bottles (many 2 litre). Portion packs are cans and cartons. RTD tea is mainly in PET bottles, as are sports drinks.

D.3.1 juices and nectars 

Commentary

D.3.2 juice drinks 

Commentary

D.3.3 sports and energy drinks 

Commentary

D.3.4 RTD tea and coffee 

Commentary

© Zenith Global Ltd 2018

Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

2 4 / 0 9 beverages - ambient packaging use by pack type/size (million litres), 2012-2022f / 2 %16-17 CAGR%12-17 CAGR%17-22f 2012 2016 2017 2022f 0 1 8 +3.7 +2.9 +3.6 Long Life Products 19,872 22,130 22,940 27,330

Aseptic

3,022

3,051

3,136

3,553

+2.8

+0.7

+2.5

Hot Filled

10,681

13,091

13,749

16,524

+5.0

+5.2

+3.7

-0.4

+3.7

Preservatives Am bient Packaging use Total Cartons - Family (0.5 litre and over)

6,169

5,988

6,056

7,253

+1.1

19,872

22,130

22,940

27,330

+3.7

+2.9

+3.6

366

381

395

468

+3.4

+1.5

+3.5

-3.8

-1.1

Cartons - Portion (up to 499ml)

951

801

782

740

-2.4

HDPE Bottles (0.5 litre and over)

284

312

323

397

+3.6

+2.6

+4.2

-0.3

-3.0

HDPE Bottles (up to 499ml) PET Bottles (0.5 litre and over) PET Bottles (up to 499ml) Plastic pouches (0.5 litre and over) Plastic pouches (up to 499ml)

168

176

166

143

-5.6

8,787

10,204

10,775

13,014

+5.6

+4.2

+3.8

+1.9

+3.7

1,687

1,775

1,851

2,215

+4.3

892

1,017

1,023

1,036

+0.6

+2.8

+0.2

1,466

1,616

1,653

1,757

+2.3

+2.4

+1.2

-

-

-

Plastic pots (over 50ml)

-

-

-

-

Plastic pots (under 50ml)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-1.6

+0.9

+2.6

+4.9

92

86

85

89

5,180

5,763

5,888

7,472

+2.2

Bag in Box Others - glass, cans, aerosols, stick

-1.1

so urce: Zenith Glo bal

D.4 use of aseptic packaging 

As the market stands in 2017, PET is the dominant packaging choice for aseptic beverages, holding an X% share of the market. This packaging type has been growing at the fastest rate over the review period, and is forecast to see the most significant gains to 2022 as well. Cartons account for X% of the aseptic beverage market, but with the shifting dynamic away from small pack (under 500ml) sizes, the market share is set to decline in the future overall. Whilst family pack cartons will grow market share, this will not be enough to offset small packs over the forecast period. beverages - aseptic packaging use by pack type/size (million litres), 2012-2022f

Cartons - Family (0.5 litre and over)

2016

2017

2022f

366

381

395

468

+3.4

+1.5

+3.5

-2.4

-3.6

-1.1

-

-

-

Cartons - Portion (up to 499ml)

941

801

782

740

HDPE Bottles (0.5 litre and over)

-

-

-

-

HDPE Bottles (up to 499 ml) PET Bottles (0.5 litre and over) PET Bottles (up to 499ml)

%16-17 CAGR%12-17 CAGR%17-22f

2012

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

1,349

1,493

1,573

1,904

+5.4

+3.1

+3.9

275

289

301

353

+4.2

+1.9

+3.2

-

-

Plastic pouches (0.5 litre and over)

-

-

-

-

-

Plastic pouches (up to 499ml)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Plastic pots (over 50ml)

-

-

-

-

-

Plastic pots (under 50ml)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-1.1

-1.6

+0.9

-

-

-

+2.8

+0.7

+2.5

Bag in Box Other - glass, cans, aerosols, stick

Total so urce: Zenith Glo bal

Š Zenith Global Ltd 2018

92

86

85

89

-

-

-

-

3,022

3,051

3,136

3,553

Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

2 4 / 0 9 beverages - aseptic packaging use by pack type/size (million units), 2012-2022f / 2 %16-17 CAGR%12-17 CAGR%17-22f 2012 2016 2017 2022f 0 1 8 +3.8 +1.8 +3.7 Cartons - Family (0.5 litre and over) 226 238 247 295

Cartons - Portion (up to 499ml)

-3.8

-1.3

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

3,565

3,471

3,252

-

-

-

HDPE Bottles (0.5 litre and over) HDPE Bottles (up to 499 ml) PET Bottles (0.5 litre and over)

-2.6

4,216

-

-

-

-

1,401

1,561

1,657

2,036

+6.1

+3.4

+4.2

+4.0

+1.7

+3.1

PET Bottles (up to 499ml)

708

741

770

896

Plastic pouches (0.5 litre and over)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Plastic pouches (up to 499ml)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Plastic pots (over 50ml)

-

-

-

-

Plastic pots (under 50ml)

-

-

-

-

Bag in Box

6

Other - glass, cans, aerosols, stick

Total

6

6

6

-

-

-

-

6,558

6,111

6,151

6,486

-

-

-

-1.1

-1.6

+0.9

-

-

-

+0.7

-1.3

+1.1

so urce: Zenith Glo bal

D.5 future trends 

The use of aseptically filled cartons is forecast to decline in the period to 2022 due to falling markets for juices and juice drinks. This packaging type will have dropped by X% between 2012 and 2022 to just over X million litres aseptically packaged in cartons.



PET will benefit from growing strength in the sports drinks and RTD tea and coffee sectors, gaining both market share and volume over the forecast period.

E. food products E.1 market size and trends 

In 2017, X million litres of food products were aseptically filled in Country, using almost X million packs.

The main use was for tomato products which accounted for X% of all aseptically packaged food products, followed by soups and sauces at X%. With steady decline seen in the tomato sector, the overall volumes of food products fell by X% annually between 2012 and 2017 and are set to fall further by a CAGR of X% to 2022.



Bag-in-box for foodservice distribution accounted for X% of the aseptic market in 2017, at X million litres and X million units, whilst plastic pouches and cartons took portion share of X% and X% respectively in 2017.

© Zenith Global Ltd 2018

Zenith Global Aseptic Packaging Report 2018

2 4 / 0 9 food products - aseptic packaging use by pack type/size (million litres), 2012-2022f / 2 %16-17 CAGR%12-17 CAGR%17-22f 2012 2016 2017 2022f 0 1 8 -7.2 -7.1 -11.2 Cartons - Family (0.5 litre and over) 1,247 928 862 477

690

610

605

526

-0.8

-2.6

-2.8

HDPE Bottles (0.5 litre and over)

7

11

11

15

+4.6

+8.5

+5.7

HDPE Bottles (up to 499 ml)

7

10

10

11

0.0

+5.5

+3.1

PET Bottles (0.5 litre and over)

4

2

2

1

+13.1

-14.3

-17.0

-

-

-

+0.1

+0.2

+0.2

Cartons - Portion (up to 499ml)

PET Bottles (up to 499ml) Plastic pouches (0.5 litre and over) Plastic pouches (up to 499ml)

-

-

-

-

1,360

1,370

1,372

1,383

-

-

-

-

Plastic pots (over 50ml) Plastic pots (under 50ml) Bag in Box

75

80

86

-

-

+1.3

+1.4

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

1,378

1,322

1,324

1,289

+0.2

-0.8

-0.5

12

20

33

93

+66.7

+22.0

+22.8

4,781

4,351

4,298

3,880

-1.2

-2.1

-2.0

Other - glass, cans, aerosols, stick

Total

79

+1.5

so urce: Zenith Glo bal

food products - aseptic packaging use by pack type/size (million units), 2012-2022f 2012

%16-17 CAGR%12-17 CAGR%17-22f

-7.0

-6.9

1,659

-0.7

+2.0

-2.7

+4.6

+8.5

+5.7

963

895

506

Cartons - Portion (up to 499ml)

1,726

1,919

1,906

-10.8

HDPE Bottles (0.5 litre and over)

12

18

19

25

HDPE Bottles (up to 499 ml)

19

24

24

28

0.0

+5.5

+3.1

1

+13.1

-14.3

-17.0

-

-

-

+0.2

+0.3

+0.3

-

-

-

+1.5

+1.2

+1.4

-

-

-

4 -

2 -

2 -

-

Plastic pouches (0.5 litre and over)

572

578

579

587

Plastic pouches (up to 499ml)

-

-

-

-

Plastic pots (over 50ml)

560

586

595

638

Plastic pots (under 50ml)

-

-

-

-

Bag in Box

199

191

192

187

+0.2

-0.7

-0.5

+22.0

+22.8

-0.5

-2.1

Other - glass, cans, aerosols, stick

Total so urce: Zenith Glo bal

E.2 soups and sauces Commentary

E.3 tomato products Commentary

E.4 baby food 

2022f

1,279

PET Bottles (up to 499ml)



2017

Cartons - Family (0.5 litre and over)

PET Bottles (0.5 litre and over)



2016

Commentary

© Zenith Global Ltd 2018

31

50

83

232

+66.7

4,401

4,331

4,296

3,864

-0.8