Risks of Oil Spills in the Baltic Sea Region

Mullai & Donner

Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea

Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea Arben Mullai&&Proprietary Patrick Donner Confidential to GfK Healthcare, 2010

2011

Mullai & Donner

Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea

2011

Contents 2

1 Introduction 2 Risk Ri k Analysis A l i 3 Final Remarks

Mullai & Donner

Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea

2011

Introduction

Background g − Baltic Sea Region: semi-enclosed, brackish, shallow, low

degradation, PSSA (62 areas), 85 m people, inter-modal link

− Oil transport: >2000 2000 large l ships, hi estimated i d 140 million illi tons, 2007 − Risks: Literature review - oil spills detection and identification, studies confined to individual countries or areas and a few case studies

− Purpose: enhance understanding of the oil spill risks Methods and Material − The concept of risk: ΣR = Σf(C, F, E) − Helcom H l d b database (1988-2009) (1988 2009) − SOS database (6329 cases, 90 variables, 1985-2010) − Other, Other e.g. e g 1971 and 1992 Funds incidents Risk analysis process

3

Mullai & Donner

Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea

2011

Ship movements, excluding ferry traffic, in the Baltic Sea f forecasted t d ffor 2015 4

(Source: Rytkรถnen et al. 2002)

Mullai & Donner

Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea

2011

Flights and confirmed oil spills by country (1988-2009) (1988 2009) 5

6000

700

5000

600 4000

500 400

3000

300

2000

Number of flights N

200 1000

100 0

0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Num mber of co onfirmed o oil spills

800

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Germany

Lithuania

Latvia

Poland

Russia

Sweden

Number of flights

Mullai & Donner

Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea

2011

Confirmed oil spills by country (1988-2009) (1988 2009) 6

Germany 13%

Poland 10%

Denmark 13%

Finland 8%

Estonia 4%

Russia 3%

Other 7% Sweden 45%

Latvia 3%

Lithuania 1%

Mullai & Donner

Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea

2011

Oil Spills and Causes Major oil spills in the Baltic Sea by location Other 28%

Immediate causes of major oil spills Other 13%

Sweden 48%

Grounding 56%

Denmark 24%

Other 6.6%

Unknown Environ 5.6% ment 5.9% Technical Human 21.0% 60.9%

The main categories of causes

Collision 31%

Own ship 73.9%

Other 5.8% Unknown 5.6% Outside own ship 14.7%

Internal and external causes

Environ o ment 5.9% Other ship 7.3% Condition outside ship 1.5%

7

Mullai & Donner

Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea

2011

1 600

900

1 400

800 700

1 200

600

1 000

500

800

400

600

300

400

200

200

100 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 4 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0

8

Numb ber of co onfirmed d oil spills

Amo ount of confirme ed spillss (tons)

Amounts and numbers of oil spills in BSR by year (1988-2009) (1988 2009)

Mullai & Donner

Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea

2011

Amounts of oil spills (2005 (2005-2009) 2009) 9

Amounts of oil spills p in m3 <1m3

1-10 m3 10-100 m3

>100 m3

Unknown

Total

2005

177

16

4

2

25

224

2006

204

18

2

1

11

236

2007

199

9

4

0

26

238

2008

182

10

0

0

18

210

2009

168

7

1

0

2

178

T t l Total

930

60

11

3

82

1086

Mean

186

12

2.2

0.6

16.4

217.2

0.926

0.060

0.011

0.003

Probability

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Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea

2011

Claims of major oil spills paid by 1971 &1992 Funds 10

Environmental damage 5% Clean-up 85%

Fishery 4% Indemnification 4% Economic/ Property loss 2%

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Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea

2011

Relation between amounts of major oil spills and claims 11

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Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea

2011

F-N F N curve of oil spill risks (in tons) (1979-2003) (1979 2003) 12

Accu umulativve freque ency perr year

1 000,00 100,00 , 10,00 1,00 0,10 0,01 1

10

100

1 000

Amount of oil spills (tons)

10 000

100 000

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Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea

2011

F-N F N curves of oil spill (1-100 (1 100 m3) risks by year (1988-2009) (1988 2009) 13

Accumu ulative fre equency per yearr

1000

100

10

1 1 1988

10 2009

Amount of oil spills (tons)

100

Mullai & Donner

Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea

2011

F-N F N curve of major oil spill risks (1988-2009) (1988 2009) 14

Accu umulativve frequency pe er year

10

1

01 0,1

0,01 100

1 000

10 000

Amount in US $ (x1000)

100 000

Mullai & Donner

Risks of Oil Spills in Baltic Sea

2011

15 SM

GfK Healthcare Sweden Arben Mullai Tel. +46 (0) 46 35 07 83 arben.mullai@gfk.com