has gathered momentum from stronger recovery in advanced economies and some EMDEs, which is expected to support growth in mining and export-oriented sectors. Fiscal sustainability will remain a challenge in the medium term. Increased spending plans include an expansion of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign and providing support to vulnerable households and firms. Public debt is forecast to reach 79.1 percent of GDP in 2021 and 81.3 percent in 2022. Economic activity in Kenya is projected to rebound from -0.3 percent growth in 2020 to 5.0 percent in 2021, and it is expected to grow at an average of 4.8 percent in 2022–23. This positive outlook reflects improvements in the construction, education, information and communication, and real estate sectors. Inflation remains contained near the central bank objective, and monetary policy continues to support growth. Government debt is projected to rise from 65.8 percent of GDP in 2020 to 69.2 percent in 2021. In Sudan, GDP growth is expected to pick up from a contraction of 3.6 percent in 2020 to an expansion of 0.9 percent in 2021. Improved conditions in agriculture and higher economic activity after lifting the pandemic-related restrictions were the drivers of this performance. Economic activity is expected to grow further in 2022 and 2023, as greater macroeconomic stability would incentivize higher inflows of foreign private capital and development financing.
West and Central Africa
36
>
Percent
The recovery varies across the region and across countries, depending on characteristics and policy constraints.
The West and Central Africa subregion is projected to experience a growth rate of 3.2 percent in 2021, up from -0.8 percent in 2020 (figure 1.32). The subregion is estimated to grow further by 3.6 percent in 2022. Nigeria is projected to grow from -1.8 percent in 2020 to 2.4 percent in 2021, thanks to better performance of both oil and non-oil sectors. Reducing heavy reliance on the oil sector through diversification of exports and assets will benefit the economy going forward, especially in the transition to a low-carbon economy in the medium term. Excluding Nigeria, the subregion is expected to pick up FIGURE 1.32: GDP Growth Forecasts for West and Central Africa momentum from last year’s 8 weak performance (0.7 6 percent) to 4.5 percent in 2021 and 5.3 percent 4 in 2022. The growth 2 rate for the West African 0 Economic and Monetary -2 Union is projected at 5.6 percent in 2021 and 6.1 -4 percent in 2022, reflecting -6 favorable terms of trade. 2020e 2021f 2022f Côte d’Ivoire is projected West and Central Africa Oil resource-rich excl. Nigeria Mineral and metal exporters in AFW Non-resource-rich countries in AFW to grow at rates of 6.2 Oil resource-rich countries in AFW CEMAC and 6.5 percent in 2021 WAEMU and 2022, respectively. Source: World Bank staff projections The forecast reflects an Note: AFW = West and Central Africa; CEMAC = Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa; WAEMU = West African Economic and Monetary Union.. increase in (public and
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