Figure 1.28: Fiscal Balance in Sub-Saharan Africa

percent y-o-y in July to 9.7 percent in August, slightly closer to the upper bound of the official target band of 6 to 10 percent. It is estimated to remain close to the upper bound at 9.8 percent in 2021 and gradually decrease to 6.8 percent in 2023.

Fiscal deficits are expected to remain invariant in 2021, although they will narrow significantly in resource-rich countries.

The fiscal deficit of Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain invariant at 5.4 percent of GDP in 2021, although it is expected to narrow to 4.5 percent of GDP in 2022 and 3 percent of GDP in 2023 (figure 1.28). Across country groups in the region, the fiscal deficit is expected to decrease among resource-rich countries (both oil and metal and mineral exporting countries) while it remains unchanged among non-resource-rich countries. Fiscal deficits in oil-rich countries are expected to narrow from 2.1 percent of GDP in 2020 to 1.2 percent of GDP in FIGURE 1.28: Fiscal Balance in Sub-Saharan Africa (% of GDP) 2021 on the back of rising revenues from the oil sector. In the case of metal and mineral exporters, the 0 deficit decreased from 5.2 percent of GDP in 2020 to 3.3 percent of GDP in 2021. In some resource-rich countries, such as Angola and Zambia, the improved fiscal balance reflects not only higher international prices for their commodities, but also government efforts to consolidate fiscally. Finally, the fiscal deficit of Source: World Bank staff projections. non-resource-rich countries remained at 5.6 percent of GDP in 2021. In 2022–23, the fiscal balance will continue improving across countries in the region. Although coming from higher budget deficits, the pace of reduction is expected to be faster in non-resource-rich countries than in resource-rich ones for the next two years. Specifically, the fiscal deficit in non-resource-rich countries is expected to ease to 3.7 percent of GDP in 2023.

2 1 Percent of GDP (median) -4 -3 -2 -1 -5 -6 -7 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021f 2022f 2023f Sub-Saharan Africa Oil exporting countries in SSA Mineral and metal exporters in SSA Non-resource-rich countries in SSA

The fiscal balance is expected to remain stable, reflecting fiscal consolidation as concerns over fiscal sustainability mount.