Executive Summary
rainfall variability may find themselves in cities that offer fewer economic opportunities and critical services than expected. Evidence from the report finds that cities in more arid areas may be better equipped to handle these water shortages and do not face as much of an impact on growth as areas in more humid regions. Similar heterogeneities also exist between small and large cities, with larger cities being more resilient against water shocks.
Going with the Flow: The Policy Challenge The results presented in this report demonstrate that the popular image of droughts or floods driving waves of destitute migrants is a misleading caricature. While water shocks certainly amplify existing movements and migrations, the idea of a “water migrant” as a singular concept is an unhelpful and overly broad generalization. Indeed, the report finds that it is the poorest individuals who often lack the means to migrate, even when doing so might improve their livelihoods and prospects. They remain stuck in areas blighted by drought with few opportunities for advancement. Those people who are able to migrate often arrive in cities that are ill prepared to receive them, supply them with basic services, or take advantage of their skills. And many of these cities, far from being bastions of resilience themselves, are increasingly suffering from water shortages and economic slowdowns. There is no single silver bullet solution to addressing climate-induced migration, and an arsenal of overlapping and complementary policies will be needed to improve livelihoods and turn crises into opportunities for growth. The way in which governments respond will either implicitly or explicitly influence decisions to migrate, thereby changing the destinies of people and the development trajectories of regions. Policies that focus on eliminating risks at the source may tacitly discourage migration by promoting rural livelihoods and thus slowing urban demographic growth. On the other hand, policies that promote the integration of migrants at their destinations would make migration more attractive, thus accelerating movement and promoting growth in cities. The appropriate policy response will likely vary over time and across locations. In situ policies that aim at reducing risks at the source can be classified into three broad categories: physical infrastructure, natural capital, and safety nets. • Water storage and supplemental irrigation can be effective at buffering vulnerable rural communities against water variability and scarcity and lessening the impact of rainfall deficits on migration, but there are caveats. Providing irrigation water supplies at little or no charge sends a signal that water is abundant, even when it is scarce. This often results in water-intensive cropping systems that deplete water resources faster than they can be replenished. The result is often a less
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