Migration?

BOX 2.2: Choosing Not to Migrate continued

Various “pull” factors in potential destination regions, such as the paucity of available work and lack of a manufacturing base, can also reduce the aspiration to move (Henderson, Storeygard, and Deichmann 2017; Mueller, Gray, and Hopping 2020; Mueller et al. 2020). Moreover, the nonmonetary costs of harsh living and working conditions in the destination and the nonmonetary value of rural life may also serve as significant migration barriers for people of lower income (Imbert and Papp 2020; Lagakos 2020). Take for example the amenities that are found in large cities. These can be quite different from those in rural areas and people could have strong and varied preferences for them. In such cases, migrants could experience large welfare reductions even as their relative wages in cities rise.

DOES BUFFERING RURAL INCOME FROM RAINFALL SHOCKS INFLUENCE MIGRATION?

The previous section emphasized a rural channel in driving water-induced migration and highlighted the vital role that income plays in influencing water-induced migration. This raises a complementary question: Can rural adaptation strategies that moderate the impact of water shocks on income also influence migration? Evidence for such effects is seldom known but is essential to understand, especially in light of adaptation taking center stage in policy discussions. The Global Commission on Adaptation points to adaptation as a central factor underpinning effective responses to the impacts of climate change (Global Commission on Adaptation 2019). The analysis in this section sheds new light on these issues by examining the effect of two types of water-related adaptation mechanisms: gray hydraulic infrastructure via irrigation systems and natural green infrastructure via forest cover (figure 2.1). In doing so, this section also demonstrates how migration, as a form of adaptation, interacts with other adaptive responses to water shocks.

Liquid Assets: The Role of Hydraulic Infrastructure

From the use of aqueducts in Roman times to the modern dams and pumps of today, the control of water through irrigation systems has shaped the course of agrarian change and development of societies around the world. These supply-side measures insulate agriculture from the adverse effects of rainfall variability, shielding farmers from some of the hardships and uncertainties arising from the natural system.8