22 | Connecting the Dots
Bus operators running on a contractual basis have also seen their farebox collections plunge. They have higher fixed costs of labor, rent, and debt repayments, and therefore less flexibility than informal operators in the short term to adapt to changes in demand. As a consequence, formal operators with large bus operations, such as the Ayalolo buses, undergo a serious financial crisis. Disruptions from COVID-19 will likely create permanent and structural changes to the transport system in the medium and long term. The medium- and long-term impacts are likely to generate permanent changes in user behaviors, business models, and actors in the sector. Among the changes anticipated: • A permanent modal shift of public transport users from buses to other modes, such as nonmotorized transport, two- or three-wheelers, or private vehicles. • Changes in operators’ stakeholders because formal companies may collapse from the financial strain. Rising unemployment in the informal sector may generate a pool of additional people willing to work as drivers. • Changes in the business model of formal and informal operators.
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