4.1 The key consequences of a business-as-usual scenario in urban mobility

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A Call for Action

BOX 4.1

The key consequences of a business-as-usual scenario in urban mobility

• Ghanaian cities are at a critical point that will determine whether they become an engine of or a burden on the country’s development. If nothing is done to change the trajectories of urban sprawl, motorization, emissions, and accidents, it will be too costly for these cities to become competitive, inclusive, and sustainable. • The current car-driven development will lock cities in an unsustainable pattern. This would entail (i) exponential growth in local and global emissions and (ii) greater demand for urban space

for private vehicles and the resulting worsening of congestion. In this scenario, the cost of externalities would cancel out any productivity benefits that cities can deliver. • If nothing is done, spatial exclusion will be exacerbated for the most vulnerable. If urbanization continues without the needed investment in nonmotorized and public transport and without the proper land use planning, large portions of the population will be excluded from accessing jobs and services.

Major Ghanaian cities are at a critical point that will determine whether they become an engine of or a burden on the country’s development. If nothing is done to change the trajectories of urban sprawl, motorization, emissions, and accidents, it will be too costly for these cities to become competitive, inclusive, and sustainable.

If Ghanaian cities continue the ongoing car-driven development, they will get locked in an unsustainable development pattern. Without a modal shift toward nonmotorized and public transport, local and global emissions will continue to grow exponentially, congestion will worsen, and accessibility will fall drastically for the poorest members of society. First, the continuation of the ongoing modal-shift trends and car-driven development will entail an unsustainable increase in global emissions, which would clash with the decarbonization of the sector and the race against climate change. Meanwhile, local emissions will increase, with significant social and economic costs. Second, congestion will only get worse. If nothing is done, individuals and firms in