96 SOCIAL CONTRACTS FOR DEVELOPMENT
This study does not provide all the answers but provides a framework as a starting point for developing a deeper understanding of citizen-state dynamics and situate World Bank engagement. In particular, the framework can be applied to gain a better understanding of sector reform in the following ways:
• This study puts forward a preliminary indicator framework, recognizing that
it will need to be supplemented by additional investment in multidisciplinary use of nontraditional data sources, including barometer surveys, perceptionbased data, and political economy analysis. The study highlights the key elements of social contract bargaining that need to be understood: identification of the actors (state, nonstate, transnational) involved in the bargain, the power imbalances that shape bargaining dynamics, and key contextual factors that explain persistence or change opportunities. • Although social contract analysis can help explain the “big picture” narrative and long-term trajectories, there is a rich complexity and variability within any given country at the level of specific development or sectoral challenges. More granular analysis of social contract bargaining around, for example, service delivery, social protection, security, business environment, political participation, and so on will help identify potential levers of change and programmatic implications, as well as potential trade-offs. Similarly, analysis of social contract dynamics at different spatial levels (for example, urban areas, lagging regions, or conflict-affected areas) will reveal asymmetrical possibilities for change.
How Can the World Bank and Other Partners Engage with Social Contracts? On the one hand, it is overreaching to suggest that the World Bank can seek to shape social contracts in client countries, both as a matter of mandate and of ambition. On the other hand, by injecting resources, expert advice, and support into contested spaces, Bank interventions will inevitably have an impact on internal bargaining dynamics—by reinforcing the status quo, shifting relative power, or in some cases undercutting potentially positive bargaining dynamics. A social contract lens and theory of change regarding potential social contract impacts can be applied to World Bank programming as a do no harm principle at a minimum, and as a means of making informed choices. Some operational considerations include the following: • Can the World Bank play a constructive role in renegotiation of the social contract? Regime transition, postconflict state-building, or constitutional junctures may be important opportunities for the Bank to provide technical expertise, convening power, and credible signals of change on policy options
