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Azerbaijan: Risks, Impacts, and Adaptation Menu
Table 4.1 Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yields in the 2040s under the Medium Impact Scenario, No Adaptation and No Irrigation Water Constraints Change in yield (%) Irrigated/rainfed Irrigated
Rainfed
Crop
High rainfall
Irrigated
Low rainfall
Subtropical
Alfalfa Corn Cotton Grape Potato Wheat Alfalfa Corn Cotton Grape Pasture Potato Wheat
–7 –6 –1 –5 –7 –5 –6 2 –13 –7 11 –12 –5
–7 –7 –3 –5 –9 –5 –8 –7 –13 –16 5 –13 –6
–6 –6 –4 –5 –5 –5 –6 –7 –13 –5 6 –14 –5
–2 –6 –5 –5 –6 –5 –8 –6 –10 –6 11 –11 –5
Source: World Bank data. Note: Results are average changes in crop yield, assuming no effect of carbon dioxide fertilization. Declines in yield are shown in shades of orange, with darkest representing biggest declines; increases are shaded green, with darkest representing the biggest increases.
Climate and Runoff Hydrologic Model (CLIRUN) model. Next, water supply estimates were matched with forecasts of water demand for all sectors, including agriculture, to determine water availability. Agricultural water demand was estimated using the AquaCrop model (see chapter 2, box 2.2 for more information).
Water Supply Declines, Demand Increases Figure 4.4 presents the estimate effect of climate change on mean monthly runoff in Azerbaijan in the 2040s. The runoff indicator is directly relevant to agricultural systems and provides insight into the risk of climate change for agricultural water availability, as well as the implications of climate change for water resource management. As shown in figure 4.4, relative to current estimates, runoff is predicted to decline under the High and Medium Impact Scenarios after 2030, but it is expected to increase under the Low Impact Scenario. Variability across the scenarios increases significantly after 2020. In terms of monthly effects, though annual runoff under the Low Impact Scenario is forecasted to increase, runoff during the late spring and late summer months declines under all three scenarios relative to baseline conditions. Agricultural demand for water is already at its highest during these months, and furthermore, AquaCrop forecasts an increase in demand for water under climate change during this time of the year as well. The results indicated that irrigation water shortages already occur under the baseline and rise significantly under climate change. In all scenarios, over 67 percent of irrigation demands were unmet in the Lenkeran/Southern Caspian and Eastern Lower Kur basins by the 2040s. The FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) crop sensitivity factors were used to estimate Building Resilience to Climate Change in South Caucasus Agriculture http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0214-0