50
ANNEX TABLE 2.1
General Climate Trends in the Eastern Europe and Central Asia Subregions Current trends and weather-related events
Projected temperature rise by 2050
Mean annual precipitation
Interval between wet days
Heat waves
Baltics
Warming trend over the past century; flood damage significant
1.6°C, warmer winters, decrease in frost days
Unclear
South: decrease; north: increase
Increased intensity
Unclear
Increase
Central Asia
Warming trend over the past century; droughts and landslides in some parts
2.0°C, decrease in frost days
Unclear
Decrease
Increased intensity
Unclear
Increase
South Caucasus
Warming trend accelerating in past 20 years; droughts and landslides in parts
1.7°C, warmer summers, decrease in frost days
Unclear
Decrease
Increased intensity and more variability
Increase
Increase
Central Europe
Warming in the past 20 years, but no trends in precipitation
1.7°C, decrease in frost days
Unclear
Decrease (median 13%)
Increased intensity and more variability
Increase
Increase
Kazakhstan
Warming over past century
2.0°C, decrease in frost days
Increase (4–9%)
Slight increase
Increased intensity
Unclear
Increase
Southeastern Europe
No trends, but vulnerable to floods and drought
1.8–2.1°C, decrease in frost days
Decrease (–6%) except unclear in summer
Decrease (25%)
Increased intensity
Increase
Increase
Runoff
Russian Federation regions Baltic Russia
Significant flood and landslide damage in some parts
1.9°C, decrease in frost days
Increase (6%); more in winter and spring
Increase (13%)
Increased intensity
Unclear
Increase
Central and Volga
No trends; flooding significant
1.9°C, warmer winters, decrease in frost days
More in winter and spring
Increase (7%)
Increased intensity
Unclear
Increase
North Caucasus
Increasingly wet over the past century
1.6°C, decrease in frost days
Unclear
Decrease (12%)
Increased intensity and more variability
Decrease
Increase
Siberia and Far East
Significant warming and wetting in the past century
2.4°C, decrease in frost days
Increase (11%), particularly in winter (17%)
Increase (22%)
Increased intensity
Decrease
Increase
South Siberia
Warming and wetting trend over the past century; floods and landslides
2.1°C, decrease in frost days
Increase (8%)
Increase
Increased intensity
Decrease
Unclear
Urals and West Siberia
Significant wetting in past century; floods and landslides
2.2°C, decrease in frost days
Increase (9%), particularly in winter (15%)
Increase (10%)
Increased intensity
Unclear
Increase
Western Arctic
Significant warming and wetting in the past century
2.6°C, even more in winter, decrease in frost days
Increase (10%), particularly in winter (16%)
Increase (17%)
Increased intensity
Decrease
Increase
Source: Derived from Westphal 2008.
Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Rainfall intensity and variability
Subregion