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Gender and Development in the Middle East and North Africa
International variations in this ratio—referred to as the economic dependency ratio3—are largely determined by three factors: the unemployment rates, the age profile of the population, and the amount of female participation in the labor force.4 Unemployment is a major concern in MENA and contributes substantially to the economic dependency ratio.5 The portion of the economic dependency ratio caused by unemployment (figure 3.5) has been determined by calculating what the ratio would be if all those who are unemployed were to find jobs. The results show that bringing the economic dependency ratio into a sustainable range requires a reduction in unemployment, but that even if MENA were to resolve the unemployment problem, the region would still have nearly two nonworking dependents per worker (see figure 3.5). The age profile of the population provides another part of the reason that MENA has the highest economic dependency ratio in the world. In 1950, MENA had the highest fertility rate in the world at 7.0 children per woman, a position that the region maintained through 1970. Fertility has since declined, slowly at first but more rapidly since 1985, and the gap between MENA and other developing regions has narrowed. The portion of the economic dependency ratio resulting from the age profile of the region’s population is large. However, it is shrinking as the bulge in the child population attains working age. It will continue to shrink until 2020 as the region moves into the stage of “demographic gift”— when the growth of the working-age population will exceed the growth of the population under age 15 by a much bigger margin than in any other region in the world. So, although MENA’s age structure is still relevant to its high economic dependency ratio, that effect will become smaller over time. By 2025, the proportions of the populations of working age in MENA, East Asia, and Latin America will be nearly equal.6 The third main factor determining the economic dependency ratio is the rate of women’s participation in the labor force. Even if MENA were able to eliminate unemployment completely, and even controlling for differences in age distribution, each income would need to support 0.75 individual in MENA—three times as high as the comparable number in East Asia and the Pacific. Because men’s participation rates vary little from one region to another, this remaining share of the economic dependency ratio is due almost entirely to differences in the women’s participation rates. As is clear from figure 3.5, all three factors—unemployment, the age profile of the population, and the rate of women’s participation—play important roles in making MENA’s economic dependency ratio the highest in the world. Although the momentum of past fertility and mortality changes implies that the age profile of the population will decline