World Business Times INSIGHT: The State of Qatar
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The State of Qatar WORLD BUSINESS TIMES INSIGHT REPORT DISTRIBUTED BY THE DAILY TELEGRAPH
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n a few short decades, hydrocarbon wealth has transformed Qatar from a tiny Gulf state heavily reliant on pearl diving into the richest per capita population on the planet. Now, that same liquid gold is causing the country to reassess its fiscal health, but thanks to years of prudent planning analysts predict minimal impact. The country remains one of the fastest growing in the region and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Qatar’s near-term macroeconomic outlook remains strong. The opening of a new natural gas field and continuation of its public infrastructure program – worth up to $200 billion – may even see gross domestic product (GDP) growth rise from 4 per cent last year to 4.5 per cent in 2015, according to the IMF. Qatar National Bank (QNB) said in its December 9 report that it expects real GDP growth to average 4.7 per cent in 2015. Importantly, the growth is being fuelled by the non-hydrocarbon sector (10.4 per cent) – principally investment spending and population growth. The hydrocarbon sector is expected to slightly contract (-0.5 per cent). The saviour here is Qatar’s tremendous fiscal power. Qatar has amassed more than $45 billion in fiscal reserves, according to QNB. Those reserves, however, have been shrinking amid lower oil and gas prices. The current account surplus narrowed to $4.7bn (11.1 per cent of GDP) in Q2 2015, according to QNB, which expects it to shrink further to 6.2 per cent of GDP in 2015, before stabilising in 2016/17. The sobering forecast is particularly impacting the country’s banking sector, with liquidity drying up, Moody’s analyst Khalid Howlader warned. “The Qatari economy still has a relatively high growth trajectory but with a high dependence on declining government deposits, coupled with new regulations requiring banks to limit their LDRs (loanto-debt ratios) to 100 per cent, liquidity is definitely tighter and commensurately more expensive,” he said. The banking sector is expected to further heat up as the Central Bank approves licences for 10 GCC banks to operate in the country, potentially forcing the least cost-efficient out of the market. At least four Qatari banks are reportedly rearranging new financing to compensate. But Qatar Central Bank governor Sheikh Abdulla Bin Saoud Al Thani insisted strong macroeconomic fundamentals would support healthy growth in the banking sector.
Fiscal finesse
Qatar’s financial institutions are facing difficult decisions amid prolonged low oil and gas prices but the country’s strong reserves are helping to buffer the damage. Sarah Livingstone reports.
Qatar remains one of the fastest growing country’s in the region with a strong near-term macroeconomic outlook
Banks’ balance sheets have grown accumulatively more than 10 per cent in the past two years and remained “highly profitable”, with a return on assets of 2 per cent, Sheikh Abdulla said. They had a non-performing loan ratio of less than 2 per cent and sufficient capital buffers to cover potential adverse developments. In any case, the Central Bank has been strengthening market infrastructure, implementing Basel III provisions, a more sophisticated and secure bank transfer system, developing the government and corporate debt market, broadening the investor base in the primary and secondary markets and introducing a deposit protection regime. “Hence, we expect the banks to continue to grow at a healthy pace, with stronger fundamentals in terms of profitability, quality of assets, capital buffers and risk management,” Sheikh Abdulla added. Qatar’s enhanced financial system was recognised last year with the country’s upgrade to emerging market status by
leading rating agencies, providing access to $1.5 trillion of funds that are benchmarked against the MSCI emerging markets index. “We expect all these measures would enhance the confidence of the potential investors,” Sheikh Abdulla said. Private sector investment and diversification from hydrocarbons are being vehemently pursued to sustain growth momentum amid the current global economic environment. The awarding of the right to host the FIFA World Cup in 2022 had already spurred significant expansion of infrastructure, while a 40 per cent growth in population since 2010 has seen more schools, residences, hospitals, retail outlets and hotels, all of which are stimulating the non-hydrocarbon economy. The new Hamad International Airport and a 26.5km2 port, expected to open next year, will also have a significant impact. Moody’s Howlader said Qatar had already made “some reasonable diversification progress”, with the hydrocarbon sector’s contribution to government revenues declining from about
Buoyancy in a tough
historically low oil prices, intensified militant activity and the re-emergence of Iran, writes Senior Advisor for
the country into overdrive towards the 2022 FIFA World Cup and its related infrastructure, plus the development of the Doha metro system and the emerging industrial hubs in South Doha, which will provide greater opportunities in sectors as broad as food, construction, manufacturing, fashion and electronics. According to the Qatari Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics, despite the decline in international oil prices, Qatar’s economic growth will remain robust at 7.3 per cent by the end
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December 20, 2015 locally listed firms, while the regulatory system discriminates in favour of Qatari and GCC-owned businesses. Opening up foreign investment will be crucial to foster a vibrant SME sector, which currently accounts for barely 10 per cent of GDP. Sheikh Abdulla said Qatar was gradually conforming to international standards; QCB has been moving to risk-based regulation, expanding macro-prudential oversight, enhancing transparency, strengthening market infrastructure, and improving consumer and investor protection. The establishment of Qatar as the first regional Renminbi clearing centre also augured well for further development of the financial sector and trade with Asia, particularly China. “This, along with benign inflation, a strong credit rating and a favourable tax regime, will continue to make Qatar a preferred investment destination,” Sheikh Abdulla argued. “Qatar Central Bank has been undertaking prudent liquidity management operations to ensure that overall liquidity in the system remains consistent with the growth and inflation objectives and will continue doing so going forward.” As well as attracting greater FDI, IHS Middle East senior economist Ana Melica argued subsidy reform, containing wage growth and promoting private sector employment must be short-term priorities. The IMF estimates that eliminating energy and water subsidies could save about 1 per cent of non-hydrocarbon GDP. “Eliminating those subsidies alone could potentially close the expected fiscal deficit,” Melica said. CEO of Qatar-based asset management firm Amwal, Fahmi Aghussein, said the government also needed to carefully balance public spending cuts amid lower hydrocarbon revenues. “The main priority will continue to be how to keep providing social services – healthcare, education, the meaningful things to the average Qatari citizen. That also includes creating jobs, wealth and opportunities so that they can benefit for the next 50 years,” he said. While change is inevitable, Qatar’s strong financial starting point allows for gradual implementation, minimising adverse ramifications for both the population and businesses. Just as Qatar has reinvented itself over the past halfcentury, it will undoubtedly do so again. And, as the discoveries of pearls and then hydrocarbons transformed the nation, what lies around the corner under Qatar’s new strategy may well be another gem.
The world is opening up to Islamic finance as even the West gradually recognises its benefits, as Sarah Livingstone explains.
Strong leadership is helping Qatar stay afloat amid
QATAR continues to amaze outside observers with Doha’s ability to weather a number of different storms: the gloomier economic environment brought about by lower oil and gas prices; wars being waged in the Levant, Libya, Egypt and Yemen, as well as terrorist attacks in neighbouring Saudi Arabia and Kuwait; and the unfolding role of Iran in the global economy when sanctions are lifted in 2016. The Gulf state’s economy is an important driver. The Qatari Development Plans for 2022 and 2030 are pushing
85 per cent to 65 per cent since 2000. “A lot of the diversification has been in construction and real estate and the FIFA World Cup 2022 will provide a nondiscretionary anchor for infrastructure investment and hence supports non-oil related growth,” he said. However, IHS warns diversification in the Gulf state will be a “slow process”.
The Gulf state pours billions into an urban makeover
Unconventional money maker
neighbourhood Gulf State Analytics, Dr Theodore Karasik.
Qatar Central Bank Governor Sheikh Abdulla Bin Saoud Al Thani
It does not expect a structural shift away from energy dependence for at least five to seven years. There also remains plenty of scope for improvement to Qatar’s business environment, for both international investors and small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The IMF has suggested more needs to be done to simplify business registration, improve enforcement of contracts, enhance the quality of education, privatise some public assets to stimulate the private sector and labour market reforms. While Qatar has low taxes and one of the easiest tax compliance regulations in the world, excessive bureaucracy, nepotism, tight turnaround times and changes to project specifications commonly cause delays to projects and raise the risk of contractual disputes and cancellations, according to IHS. Unlike in the UAE, which has about a dozen free trade zones, foreign investors have little opportunity for full ownership in Qatar and are limited to 49 per cent of
Billion-dollar building ground
Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
of 2015. By comparison, the UAE has downgraded its GDP growth for 2015 to 3 per cent from 3.5 per cent. But as the pace of investment activity in non-hydrocarbon sectors begins to taper, and population growth recedes, GDP growth will moderate to 6.6 per cent in 2016 and 6 per cent in 2017. On the fiscal side, the overall balance is expected to narrow in 2015, given lower oil and gas revenues
ONCE steeped in mystery for the majority of the world, Islamic banking is becoming increasingly popular among governments, companies and investors worldwide. Its growth far outpaces that of conventional banking, at about 10 to 12 per cent annually, according to the World Bank. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has even suggested Islamic banking products could prove safer than conventional instruments, due to their no-interest rules that instead typically mean the lender holds full or partial ownership of the asset against which the loan has been taken out. Globally, there are about $2 billion worth of Shariah-compliant financial assets, according to the World Bank, while the UK-based Islamic Finance
and Sukuk Company estimates the entire market (including banking) is worth between $1.66 to $2.1 trillion, rising to $3.4 trillion by the end of 2018. Islamic finance is also gaining traction amongst conventional institutions, many of whom have created dedicated divisions, as well as in nonIslamic countries. The UK became the first Western country to issue a sovereign Sukuk in June 2014. It was ten-times oversubscribed. Tamim Hamad Al-Kawari, Chief Executive Officer at Qatar-based QInvest, said Islamic bonds (also known as Sukuk), were increasingly popular because they allowed companies and governments access to a different class of investors.
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They also provided issuers with access to Islamic investors – many of whom have accumulated vast amounts of wealth in the oil and gas bonanza of the past half-century – and gave Islamic banks an opportunity to generate returns on their excess liquidity. “Sukuk can match the same returns as conventional bonds and recent issuances have proven this,” Al-Kawari said. “For example, the Luxembourg sovereign Sukuk, which QInvest advised on, issued at a similar price to the equivalent bond. Similarly for the UK sovereign Sukuk and a number of corporate Sukuk, including Goldman Sachs [which raised $500m in its first Sukuk issuance last year].” Continued on page 2