Month in Review ~ January 2024

Permafrost Pathways hosts Arctic youth, commemorates partnership with International Centre for Reindeer Husbandry / 02 2024 John Schade Memorial Scholars awarded / 04 Most Earth system models are missing key piece of future climate puzzle / 05 Scanning the soil to unlock its secrets / 07 In the news: highlights / 09

Notes from the Field Month in Review ● Jnauary 2024 woodwellclimate.org

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Monthly Newsletter

Permafrost Pathways hosts Arctic youth, commemorates partnership with International Centre for Reindeer Husbandry Partners celebrated new collaboration with special day of Arctic programming Jessica Howard

Arctic Communications Specialist

As part of a new partnership between Permafrost Pathways and the International Centre for Reindeer Husbandry (ICR), the Arctic Initiative at Harvard Kennedy School (Arctic Initiative) and Woodwell Climate Research Center (Woodwell Climate) hosted 18 Indigenous youth from across the circumpolar North for a day of science, mapping, storytelling, and policy programming.

Woodwell Climate Senior Scientist and Permafrost Pathways Lead Dr. Sue Natali signed a formal Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with ICR Executive Director Anders Oskal and Woodwell Climate President Dr. Max Holmes establishing a new relationship focused on climate change and Arctic resilience.

The event was part of the Arctic Innovation Lab—a program that builds capacity among younger generations, uplifts youth voices, and facilitates discussions focused on developing solutions to climate change in the Arctic. In partnership with the Arctic Initiative, the lab is a facet of the global GEF-UNEP Reindeer Herding and Resilience project led by ICR’s Dr. Prof. Svein D. Mathiesen and Project Coordinator Marina Tonkopeeva, and the UArctic EÁLAT Institute. Oskal, Tonkopeeva, and the Arctic Innovation Lab’s third youth cohort visited the Woodwell Climate campus to participate in a variety of thematic sessions, beginning with an overview of how Arctic change caused by permafrost thaw and boreal fires is impacting communities, infrastructure, and natural ecosystems.

Other programming included presentations about the global importance of Arctic warming and how to leverage tools like mapping to both illustrate change in the Arctic and to effectively communicate the urgent need for solutions to policymakers.

Indigenous youth leaders from Mongolia, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Russia, Canada, and Alaska shared unique stories about life in the north and described the changes they’re experiencing

caused by climate change, development, and government policies that are collectively threatening their traditional ways of living.

Today, about 100,000 people across nine countries participate in reindeer herding with about 2.5 million semi-domesticated reindeer. Reindeer herding peoples, such as the Sámi, have practiced subsistence ways of living across the Arctic region since time immemorial. The intimate relationship between reindeer and Sámi people is one of ancient origin that transcends practicality—their health, wellbeing, and futures are mutually dependent on one another.

But reindeer and reindeer herders face profound challenges as they grapple with pasture loss, the intrusion of extractive industries, and the impacts of Arctic climate change such as permafrost thaw and land degradation. Reindeer husbandry is forced to adapt to these threats while trying to maintain their traditional lifeways. Stewarding the preservation of this centuries-old knowledge and culture is one of the many responsibilities of ICR.

Arctic Indigenous youth leaders gather with Arctic Initiative, Woodwell Climate, and ICR staff as the MOU is signed. / photo by Dee Sullivan/MinFin Photography

January 2024

Founded in 2004, ICR is the organizing body responsible for enhancing global understanding of reindeer husbandry and reindeer herding peoples, their traditional knowledge, and how their cultural practices will be sustained in an increasingly warming climate. By establishing interdisciplinary cooperation amongst reindeer herders, research and academic institutions, industry, and international governments, ICR continues to work toward a sustainable and resilient future for circumpolar reindeer husbandry.

Permafrost Pathways first began working with ICR in August 2023 during a workshop at the Arendalsuka Political Gathering in Norway. The week-long workshop organized by ICR focused on enhancing Arctic resilience and addressing land degradation and permafrost thaw through Indigenous youth empowerment, creating a dedicated space for youth to be heard and build the necessary leadership and policy skills to actively influence legislation.

Permafrost Pathways partners and ICR will be co-producing maps of land use and landscape change while co-designing GIS training courses for Indigenous youth in Norway and Mongolia with the common goal of supporting community-led solutions to land degradation in the Arctic. The Permafrost Pathways policy and communications teams are also working closely with ICR to expand collaborative programming at upcoming events and workshops to support youth empowerment and advance adaptation, resilience, and intergenerational justice in the Arctic.

top & middle: Arendalsuka Political Gathering in Norway / photos courtesy of Arctic Initiative at Harvard Kennedy School bottom: Reindeer husbandry lands (hatched area) span much of the permafrost region (blue shading) across Eurasia. / map by Greg Fiske

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Monthly Newsletter

2024 John Schade Memorial Scholars awarded Fund supports Polaris students’ graduate careers Sarah Ruiz

Science Writer/Editor

Two new Polaris Project Alumni have been named John Schade Memorial Scholarship recipients.

The fund, established in the memory of Dr. John Schade, who founded Polaris and was integral to its success, is dedicated to supporting the higher education goals of students that reflect Dr. Schade’s values of mentorship, education, leadership, equity, and the advancement of Arctic science.

Both recipients will receive funding to continue their education and pursuit of science, mentorship, and equity, encouraging a new generation of Arctic scientists working to change the world.

Mandala Pham

Aaron MacDonald

Mandala Pham studies geophysics and history at the University of Texas at Austin. As an undergraduate researcher, she has explored the caves of central Texas, studied marine geophysics in Corpus Christi Bay, and peered back in time to past climates through geology.

Her experience in different lab groups spurred her interest in field work, driving her to pursue graduate opportunities to continue getting up close with geology.

Aaron MacDonald’s passion for ecology began during his childhood spent on long family camping trips. Through his studies at University of Toronto, MacDonald has gained experience in oceanography and fisheries science through the Woods Hole Partnership Education Program (PEP) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Inclusive Fisheries Internship. His field experience bolstered his confidence to pursue a scientific career.

During her Polaris experience, however, Pham’s research focused less on geology and more on ecology. Inspired by her father’s affinity for beautiful, rare, and sometimes poisonous mushrooms, Pham studied the response of Arctic mushroom species to wildfire, comparing biodiversity between burned and unburned areas of land.

As part of Polaris, Pham saw a glacier in person for the first time, which reinforced her commitment to dedicate her career to studying and fighting climate change.

“From childhood anxieties to professional aspirations, I’ve taken tackling climate change as my personal direction in life,” says Pham. “I want to be part of the solution rather than spending my time ruminating on the worst-case scenarios.”

She hopes to get her Ph.D. in geophysics, studying glaciology. After that she has aspirations for either full time research or a career in the National Parks Services.

Pham is also interested in screenwriting, pig farming, and perhaps one day, becoming a lighthouse keeper.

With Polaris, MacDonald studied the role of willow ptarmigan, a common Arctic ground bird, as drivers of ecosystem dynamics on the tundra. For his career, he hopes to pursue a graduate degree and get involved with mentorship programs like Polaris. MacDonald firmly believes everyone should have the opportunity to study science, and is grateful for the support he received that has allowed him to pursue this career.

“Everyone who wants to is capable of scientific research and everyone has a place in STEM,” says MacDonald. “I have questioned many times if there is a place for me in STEM, but with the support of those around me I am determined to make it.”

In his spare time, MacDonald enjoys running and video games with friends.

January 2024

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Most Earth System Models are missing key piece of future climate puzzle Permafrost Pathways experts weigh in on the challenges of permafrost modeling Kate Petersen

Arctic Communications Strategist

The way science is funded is hampering Earth System Models and may be skewing important climate predictions, according to a comment published in Nature Climate Change by Permafrost Pathways scientists at Woodwell Climate Research Center and an international team of modeling experts.

Emissions from thawing permafrost, frozen ground in the North that contains twice as much carbon as the atmosphere does and is thawing due to humancaused climate warming, are one of the largest uncertainties in future climate

projections. But accurate representation of permafrost dynamics are missing from the major models that project future carbon emissions.

Only two of the eleven Earth System Models (ESMs) used in the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report include permafrost carbon cycling at all, and those that do currently use oversimplified approximations that don’t capture the fully dynamic ways that permafrost carbon can be released into the atmosphere as the climate warms.

Permafrost thaw in and around the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge. / photo by Torre Jorgenson

Processes that researchers have observed in the field, such as the way abrupt permafrost thaw can create ponds and lakes and change surface hydrology, run counter to these approximations but have large implications for permafrost carbon and its potential impact on the global climate.

“What happens to the carbon in permafrost is one of the biggest unknowns about our future climate,” said Christina Schaedel, senior research scientist at Woodwell Climate Research Center and Permafrost Pathways and

January 2024

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with are making advances in depicting complex permafrost processes, limited funding means that “the pace at which improvements get ingested back into the core CTSM codebase is relatively slow.”

“Substantial funding, on the order of multiple millions of dollars per ESM, is needed to provide the necessary infrastructure and support needed for model development,” the authors write.

Such targeted funding and highly skilled software developers and programmers, they contend, can help speed the model improvement that’s underway.

“In recent years, Arctic research has become very collaborative and complex— scientists are not just studying one plant in one location anymore,” said Schaedel.

“And while the need for long-term data and complex model development has become ever more apparent, the funding availability has not kept up. We’d like to see funding opportunities match the climate challenges that we’re facing.”

lead author of the report. “Earth System Models are critical to predicting where, how and when this carbon will be released, but modeling teams currently don’t have the resources they need to depict permafrost accurately. If we want more accurate climate predictions, that needs to change.”

Earth System Models, the supercomputerdriven programs that can forecast future carbon emissions and climate dynamics, can predict only the processes that they represent. And as scientists learn more about the complex physical and biogeochemical interactions that make up the Earth system, ESMs have grown in complexity, encompassing more and more processes. In practice, that means years of highly technical code development, integrating observational data, and parameterizing and testing the model.

But most science research funding operates on a three-year funding cycle

and is structured around projects that tackle novel science questions. This relatively short cycle is too brief a time to train up model developers or to complete key and complex model development steps before teams turn over, the authors say.

“As these modeling systems are becoming increasingly complex, it is hard—and getting harder—for a graduate student or postdoc to ‘come up to speed’ quickly enough to really understand the full scope of the model development needs and wrap up a development project on the typical three-year timeline of a proposal,” said David Lawrence, who co-leads the Community Terrestrial Systems Model at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

“Unfortunately, that leaves many projects unfinished.” Lawrence, who coauthored the report, said that while the collaborative modeling teams he works

“Our understanding of how permafrost is thawing and emitting carbon has drastically improved over the last 15 years,” said Brendan Rogers, associate scientist at Woodwell Climate Research Center and co-lead of the Permafrost Pathways project. “Funding Earth System Models to represent permafrost thaw would ensure those gains are realized in the models, and that critical climate targets and carbon budgets are being based on the best science we have.”

This comment was authored by scientists from Woodwell Climate Research Center, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratories, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, The Met Office Hadley Centre, University of Alaska Fairbanks, and Northern Arizona University. Authors received funding from the U.S. Dept. of Energy and Permafrost Pathways through the TED Audacious Project.

Map depicting current extent of permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere (light blue) and projected extent of permafrost in 2070 (dark blue) under an RCP 4.5 warming scenario. / map by Greg Fiske

January 2024

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Scanning the soil to unlock its secrets Woodwell Climate research builds community resources to advance soil science for climate solutions Sarah Ruiz

Science Writer/Editor

Research Assistant Colleen Smith crouches low to the ground over a tray of crumbled soil. Using a boxy grey device that looks like a heavy-duty flashlight, she presses the flat glass end against the soil and fires a beam of infrared energy that bounces off the soil and back into the device’s sensor.

In moments, a readout pops up on a tablet screen, showing a spectrum of reflected light. With some analysis, Smith will have data on the chemical makeup of this patch of ground. With enough data points, she could estimate the soil properties of an entire field, pasture, ranch or farm, and how it might be changing over time.

Soil spectroscopy is a newer but fast-growing technique employed by scientists studying soil composition. At Woodwell Climate Research Center, a group led by Carbon Program Director Dr. Jonathan Sanderman has been spearheading its use to help improve the availability and affordability of reliable soil quality information, which is essential if we want to get serious about soil carbon sequestration as a natural climate solution.

wavelengths give scientists clues to which minerals and elements are present and in what quantities.

That information can then be related to certain soil properties, like whether it’s suitable for certain crops, or whether it’s effectively sequestering carbon.

The former is valuable information for producers like ranchers or farmers who need to make land management decisions. The latter is what climate researchers are most interested in. Soil spectroscopy represents an opportunity to marry the interests of both.

In a single scan, soil spectroscopy can estimate carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, moisture, pH levels, and more.

Traditional methods rely on multi-step

chemical analyses to get you the same information—a time consuming and expensive process that could involve grinding, drying, weighing, mixing with reagents, and other steps to extract information on just one or two indicators of soil quality.

“With soil spectroscopy, you can get a pretty large suite of properties from one sixty second scan. A lab needs easily $2 million worth of instruments to be able to make all the same measurements using traditional methods,” says Dr. Sanderman. The most precise soil spectrometers can cost $100,000, but lower resolution and portable ones are substantially cheaper. “The speed and cost of spectroscopy are unmatched.”

Why soil spectroscopy?

“The heart of the technology is essentially getting the fingerprint of the soil, which tells us something about the overall chemical makeup of that sample,” says Dr. Sanderman.

The principles of soil spectroscopy are based in nuclear physics. Elements in the soil react in unique ways to the energy from the electromagnetic spectrum, reflecting some wavelengths and absorbing others. The reflected Colleen Smith uses a handheld soil spectrometer to scan soils from a ranch in Colorado. / photo by Sarah Ruiz

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Monthly Newsletter

“As we built momentum, more groups began to contribute,” says Dr. Sanderman.

“It’s been great to see people realizing the value of collaborative, open science.

People are now taking advantage of the foundation we’ve built.”

The soil spectroscopy community convened this past year for several webinars and presentations, including the Agronomy, Crop, and Soil Science Society meeting, where Drs. Sanderman and Safanelli hosted a training workshop and symposium on spectroscopy, as well as a two-day immersive workshop on the future of the field.

“We all benefit when this technology is more widely used,” says Smith.

Soil Spectroscopy for Global Good These benefits make soil spectroscopy a method with big potential, but according to Dr. Sanderman there is still work to be done in refining the methodology to get universally accurate data. Alongside collaborators from the University of Florida and OpenGeoHub, he started the Soil Spectroscopy for the Global Good project (SS4GG) to jumpstart that work.

The project focused on two main efforts. The first was an extensive interlaboratory comparison to understand how much the accuracy of scans varies between different instruments. Twenty laboratories across the globe participated, scanning identical samples which were then compared to the output from a lab widely regarded as the gold-standard in accuracy. The results were published in Geoderma late last year.

“We demonstrated that there is labto-lab variability, but also that there are procedures we can use to correct for differences between laboratories and get better integration of data,” says Postdoctoral Researcher, Dr. José Safanelli, who coordinated the study.

The second goal was to pool data from different labs into one accessible and open-source resource that also provides

tools to analyze the data. The Open Soil Spectral Library (OSSL) now hosts over 100,000 soil spectra from across the globe that scientists can incorporate into their research and offers an engine for analysis.

The idea is that with more people using and contributing soil spectral data, the faster the technology and the information gained from it will advance.

“We hope that the OSSL will be a driver of the soil spectroscopy community, advancing the pace of scientific discovery, and promoting innovation,” says Dr. Safanelli.

Building a community of soil scientists Throughout the project, SS4GG efforts remained dedicated to transparency.

“We were always available to answer questions. We shared best practices and gave advice on which instruments are better, which manufacturers are the best in the market, and which procedures to use to collect spectra,” says Dr. Safanelli.

According to Dr. Sanderman, that openness fostered trust and collaboration—in both contributing data to the OSSL and participating in the inter-laboratory study—strengthening the community of scientists using soil spectroscopy.

Soil carbon as a climate solution Speeding up the pace of soil science is key for developing climate solutions.

Agricultural soils represent a large potential carbon sink; changes in farming and ranching practices can encourage sequestration of carbon in the soils. Soil carbon markets, and other payment for ecosystem services schemes could incentivize producers to make sustainable management decisions and soil spectroscopy could be a useful tool to track their contributions.

“The ultimate goal is to better monitor soils across landscapes to make food production more sustainable,” says Dr. Safanelli.

The handheld device that Smith was using is a test case for the speed and convenience of soil spectroscopy for analyzing soil carbon. If testing the quality of your soils can be as simple as a 60 second measurement with a low-cost piece of portable equipment, and the scan can get you additional information about soil fertility, then why not participate?

“We are trying to verify that we actually are sequestering carbon, and that requires lots and lots of measurements.

So this is where we start moving into field-based spectroscopy,” says Dr.

top: (left) Example of a soil spectra output. (right) Sections of a soil core. / photos by Sarah Ruiz

January 2024

Sanderman. “If we can eliminate bringing the sample back to the lab altogether, we’re cutting our costs by another order of magnitude and could potentially scan several hundred points in a field in a day.”

Smith theorizes that cost could be further diffused through farming cooperatives or extension offices offering soil testing using inexpensive spectrometers. “Soil spectroscopy could be an easier way to get answers to big questions,” says Smith.

“And that’s exciting.”

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With the OSSL now up and running, the team is now focusing efforts on maintaining the growing network of interested soil researchers, pursuing new opportunities for collaboration as they arise.

“The network is getting stronger,” says Dr. Safanelli. “More people are coming and reaching out to us. That’s our biggest contribution: creating a network and sharing information across the community.”

In the news: highlights Dr. Max Holmes was quoted in a Politico article covering 2023’s record-breaking temperatures and looking ahead to 2024.

Dr. Jen Francis was quoted in three widely-syndicated articles—two from AP News on the cold temperatures in the U.S. and why scientists are concerned about 2023 heat records, and another from CNN explaining why we still have cold snaps while the planet is warming. Vox also quoted Jen in an article about why our winters have gotten so weird.

Undark magazine published a story on the importance of valuing Indigenous knowledge in permafrost research, quoting Patrick Murphy and Dr. Kyle Arndt on Permafrost Pathways’ work.

The Vineyard Gazette quoted Dr. Zach Zobel in a story about Martha’s Vineyard’s recent barrage of winter storms, causing problems with flooding and erosion.

A Gazeta do Acre and Juruá Online both published stories reporting on Dr. Foster Brown’s research showing an increase in extreme weather events in Acre, Brazil (Portuguese).

The World Economic Forum quoted Dr. Sue Natali in an article, where she highlighted why staying below 1.5 deg C of average warming is critical for the Arctic.

Dr. Rich Birdsey was a contributor to an article published in The Conversation, co-authored by Drs. Beverly Law and William Moomaw, which argues that old forests are critically important for slowing climate change and merit immediate protection from logging.

An article in Futura highlighted the funding constraints limiting permafrost research, quoting Dr. Christina Schädel (French).

Dr. Sue Natali, Permafrost Pathways Tribal Liaison Morris Alexie, and partner Robin Bronen were quoted in a story by KYUK about Nunapitchuk’s progress in relocating due to thawing permafrost. The story is the last in a 4-part series by KYUK on Nunapitchuk; the third story also quoted Morris in covering impacts to outdoor life in the community.

Planeta Campo covered recent panels highlighting CONSERV, including one at COP28.

Dr. Jen Francis was invited back to the ClimateGenn podcast to discuss the climate outlook for 2024.

Dr. Heather Goldstone was quoted in a Wired article, offering her perspective on how we talk about climate change as extremes become more frequent.

Anthem Award Winner

Permafrost Pathways is a three-time winner of the 2024 Anthem Awards!

Permafrost thaw is a human rights issue putting Arctic communities and our global climate at risk. We’re grateful to all of our partners, collaborators, and supporters for helping us advance this important work.

cover: Juhán Nikolaus Wuolab Wollberg shares stories of traditional Sámi reindeer herding in Norway. / photo by Dee Sullivan / MinFin Photography

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