Month in Review ~ October 2024

New study finds anomalous Arctic warming linked with severe winter weather / 02 How climate change is allowing fire to devastate the Amazon Rainforest / 03 Climate Justice Committee sows the seeds for institutional change / 05 In the news: highlights / 07

Notes from the Field Month in Review ● October 2024 woodwellclimate.org

02

Monthly Newsletter

New study finds anomalous Arctic warming linked with severe winter weather Researchers warn rising Arctic temperatures will continue to exacerbate debilitating extreme winter weather.

Jennifer Francis Senior Scientist Maddie Rocklin

Associate Vice President, 90 West

A new study, published in Nature Communications Earth and Environment and co-authored by researchers at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. (AER) and Woodwell Climate Research Center, finds that abnormally warm temperatures in the Arctic are associated with a higher likelihood of severe winter weather including cold-air outbreaks and heavy snowfall in Northern Hemisphere continents.

“When the Arctic atmosphere is warmer than normal, we see a much higher likelihood of extreme winter weather across much of Canada, the northern U.S. and northern Eurasia,” remarked lead author, Dr. Judah Cohen at AER. “The relationship is especially strong in the northeastern sections of the continents.”

“Even though we’re seeing cold records being broken less often as the globe warms, we’ll still see debilitating spells of severe winter weather,” added co-author Dr. Jennifer Francis at Woodwell Climate. “There will be plenty of ice, snow, and frigid air in the Arctic winter for decades to come, and that cold can be displaced southward into heavily populated regions during Arctic heat waves.”

Recent disruptive extreme winter weather events—such as the deadly Texas cold spell of February 2021—have occurred and will continue to occur in the future, wreaking havoc on

infrastructure, human wellbeing, and ecosystems, especially in areas unaccustomed to and ill-equipped for dealing with winter extremes.

“The Arctic may seem irrelevant and far away to most folks, but our findings say the profound changes there are affecting billions of people around the Northern Hemisphere,” added Francis. To reverse these trends, “it will take bold and rapid actions to reduce our burning of fossil fuels and the build-up of heat-trapping gasses in the atmosphere, but the tools exist if we can muster the will.”

According to Francis, recent studies have theorized that rapid Arctic warming, a pace three-to-four times faster than the globe as a whole, may increase the likelihood of extreme weather events owing to a reduced north/south temperature difference.

In addition, slower westerly winds of the jet stream lead to more frequent convoluted jet-stream configurations, which lead to unusual weather.

“Disruptions in the typically stable stratospheric polar vortex may also occur more often in a warming climate,” noted Cohen, “and we know hazardous winter weather is more likely during these disruptions.”

above: Arctic field site in Alaska National Wildlife Refuge. / photo by Misha Kanevskiy

October 2024

03

How climate change is allowing fire to devastate the Amazon Rainforest Humans create the conditions for runaway fires Sarah Ruiz

Science Writer & Editor

In the Amazon Rainforest, there is no such thing as a natural fire. Yet every year we see headlines of rainforest vegetation aflame, smoke drifting across populated areas, and stored carbon spilling into the atmosphere. So how does a rainforest— one of the wettest ecosystems on Earth—catch fire?

Climate impacts on Amazon fire Whether directly or indirectly, human activities are the root cause of fire in the Amazon. In order for a fire to start anywhere, you need three things—favorable climatic conditions, a fuel source, and an ignition source. In the Amazon, each side of this “triangle of fire” has been exacerbated by warming temperatures and deforestation, creating flammable conditions that can allow fires to spread out of control deep into the forest once they are ignited.

Climate conditions High temperature and dryness combine to create the right conditions for fires to spread through the Amazon. As global temperatures have risen, the Amazon region has become hotter and drier, more vulnerable to prolonged droughts and extreme climatic events. Most recently, a climate-driven drought spanning 2023 and 2024 has deeply impacted water levels in the forest— to the point of isolating riverside communities.

Wildfire danger days, or days considered hot and dry enough to increase the likelihood of fire, have become a much more common occurrence deeper in the Amazon, where previously it was just too wet to burn.

Fuel Felled trees and dry vegetation form the fuel for more fires in the Amazon. How do the trees fall? Some are killed in extreme drought and previous fire, but many are intentionally cut, pushed over by bulldozers for conversion of forest to pasture land. Large-scale deforestation has been advancing into the Amazon for decades, fragmenting thick blocks of forest and replacing them with ranch or farm land. Scientists and activists have been pushing for an urgent stop in deforestation to achieve, among other benefits, a drop in fire numbers. However, despite slowly declining deforestation rates, fires are still increasing, pointing to another important piece of the puzzle–degradation.

When a forest is fragmented by deforestation, it degrades the vegetation that remains standing. Forests along the edges of clearings dry out and weaken, making them more susceptible to future burning. And burning weakens nearby forests yet again, creating more available fuel, setting off a chain of degradation.

top: Fire burns among Amazon vegetation. / photo by Illuminati Filmes bottom: Triangle of fire. / graphic by Tommy Hillmer

04

Monthly Newsletter

Ignition Ignition in the Amazon is almost entirely human caused— whether accidentally or intentionally. Ranch and farm operations both legally and illegally clearing Amazon rainforest use fire to burn away cut vegetation or prepare existing pasture land for other uses. With climate change creating hotter and drier conditions, and lengthening the dangerous dry season, any ignition becomes potentially risky, whether or not its use is legalized. Especially where forest edges have already been weakened.

However, a study led by Woodwell Climate Postdoctoral Researcher and fire ecologist Dr. Manoela Machado, found that long-term solutions to the Amazon’s fire crisis will require distinguishing between the complex uses of fire. One-size-fitsall fire bans, usually employed as emergency measures and not always strictly enforced, may reduce fire in the short term, but don’t adequately address the underlying reasons people have decided to burn the land.

Ending deforestation and supporting firefighters Fire in the Amazon follows deforestation and degradation, namely from logging, fires, droughts and fragmentation. Climate change and human encroachment have worked in concert to foster a devastating annual burning regime in the Amazon rainforest that threatens one of the Earth’s most valuable mechanisms for keeping the planet cool.

Eliminating fire from the Amazon will require the elimination of deforestation and degradation sources, as well as the enforcement of strategic fire bans and support of firefighting brigades. Machado, has led several successful workshops with Indigenous fire brigades in Brazil, bringing together groups from across the country to learn about Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology they can use to monitor and manage their own forests.

According to Machado, a big part of fire prevention happens in the off-season. Support for activities like community outreach, building fire breaks in collaboration with farmers, and technical assistance to replace legal use of fire, can all help reduce the prevalence of catastrophic fires when the dry-season comes around.

The Amazon is a massive place, and firefighting can be a dangerous job. Especially on the frontiers of deforestation, where land grabbing and illegal deforestation are common and fire fighters are often threatened to stay out of an area.

Ultimately, government support, bolstered enforcement of deforestation laws, and viable alternative livelihoods have a major role to play in bringing down fires, alongside continued global efforts to curb climate change.

top: A bulldozer is used to widen a farm road in the Amazon. / photo by Mitch Korolev bottom: Machado helps a workshop participant during a field exercise. / photo by Sara Raira Leal Pereira

October 2024

05

Climate Justice Committee sows the seeds for institutional change For Climate Justice Specialist Dr. Nigel Golden, making climate science just and equitable is akin to watching an ecosystem evolve over time Nigel Golden

In February, Woodwell Climate Research Center’s new Climate Justice committee gathered for the very first time. Even through the computer screen, you could feel it—a buzz of anticipation, the spark of hope, as folks from across the organization came together to dream about the vision and goals ahead.

This was no ordinary meeting—it was the first step in what many hope will be a transformative journey for Woodwell Climate, guiding us toward a more just and equitable climate future. Like a handful of seeds taking root, this meeting was full of potential.

Participants shared ideas and intentions that, with care and nurture, could grow into something powerful that reshapes the landscape of Woodwell Climate’s global impact.

Climate justice is indispensable to Woodwell’s work Climate change is being felt around the world, but as its effects become more frequent and intense, the unequal impacts on different communities become more obvious. Some communities are disproportionately affected, while others benefit more from societal responses to climate change.

A salient example of this can be found in the aftermath of climate-related disasters like hurricanes or wildfires. Affluence of a community or country plays a role in shielding citizens from the worst effects of the disaster, and efforts to rebuild are often much swifter. Meanwhile, low-income communities must often face forced displacement, material destruction, and cultural degradation.

This growing disparity underscores the need for research and solutions that acknowledge and work to rectify these inequities.

Because climate change creates and exacerbates inequitable situations, addressing disparity must be a central consideration

Research Scientist, Climate Justice Specialist

in both current climate research and long-term climate adaptation strategies.

Climate justice is an approach to addressing climate change that not only considers, but centers, disproportionate impacts. It integrates principles of social justice, human rights, and equity, emphasizing the interconnectedness of environmental issues with systems of oppression. By centering those most affected by climate injustice—who are also the least responsible for causing it—climate justice reframes the issue as not only scientific, technical, or financial, but as a moral and justice concern. It requires us to consider not just where and how climate change is happening but also who is excluded or marginalized by the physical and social mechanisms of climate change and by any adaptation or mitigation efforts we pursue.

As an institution dedicated to using science to inform climate change policy, integrating climate justice enriches our work in five significant ways.

1

First, by identifying who is disproportionately affected, our research and policy recommendations can be more targeted and effective in addressing vulnerabilities that might otherwise be overlooked.

2

Second, demonstrating a commitment to equity in our work increases our credibility and broadens our support among diverse stakeholders, including members of historically marginalized communities.

3

Third, understanding the social, cultural, and economic contexts in which climate impacts occur allows us to develop strategies that are not only scientifically sound but also socially relevant and adaptable.

above: The view up into the pine canopy of Tongass National Forest, Alaska. / photo by Nigel Golden

06

Monthly Newsletter

4

Fourth, policies shaped with an awareness of who is excluded or marginalized are more likely to succeed because they are grounded in the realities of those most affected.

5

Lastly, by considering who is excluded or marginalized, we can address not only the symptoms but also the root causes of climate injustice, leading to more comprehensive and lasting solutions.

audacious plants take root first, thanks to the quiet, persistent work of the mosses and lichens. The rest need a little more nurturing, a bit more care. Diversity begins to blossom—shrubs, small trees, and layers of life start to interweave, creating habitats for fungi, microbes, and animals. The community is expanding, deepening, finding its rhythm. Together as a committee we will expand our capacity to interweave more complex ideas and projects, allowing our work to deepen and evolve like a thriving ecosystem.

And then, like the forest maturing into its climax stage, we envision a time when the ecosystem is stable, resilient, and thriving—a rich blend of old, wise trees and vibrant new growth.

A place where deep-rooted interconnectedness allows life to sustain itself, weathering disturbances with grace. As a Climate Justice Committee, we aim to create a space where renewal is constant, change is embraced, and growth is continuous—ever adaptive, ever committed to justice, and ever alive to the needs of all, as Woodwell Climate continues to work towards an equitable, healthy and sustainable world.

Pioneering climate justice work at Woodwell Nurturing a growing climate justice ecosystem It’s essential to remember that this kind of transformative work is often slow, challenging, and asks for a commitment that stretches beyond the urgency of the moment. There’s no magic wand, no quick-fix—something we know deeply, sometimes frustratingly, from our scientific work. Real climate justice isn’t something you can cook up in isolation or rush through with a checklist. It’s born from the steady, patient work of weaving relationships, dismantling entrenched inequalities, and watering the seeds of small, consistent actions—nurtured across many hands and hearts over time, even when the growth feels almost imperceptible.

Think of it like the slow growth of trees that eventually give rise to forests—subtle, persistent, inevitable. The key is to stay rooted in purpose, grounded in the values that guide us, trusting that even the smallest efforts will accumulate into something deep, something strong, something lasting—like a mature oldgrowth forest, resilient through the cycles of time.

The work we’re doing as a committee is very much in its early, tender stages. It is dynamic and evolving, like the “pioneer stage” of a forest’s life. Here, the groundwork is being lovingly (and with considerable effort) laid for what’s to come, like the lichens and mosses breaking down rock, slowly transforming barren ground into rich, life-giving soil. In these first steps, we are creating the conditions for future growth, for future flourishing.

As we move forward, the process becomes more complex—a kind of intermediate stage. Dandelions, grasses, the boldest and most

Our first offering as a committee of mosses and lichens is to craft a set of actionable recommendations to help guide Woodwell Climate toward a future where our work is deeply rooted in the principles of climate justice, rich in diverse perspectives, and resilient in the face of challenges. This is our way of fostering the right environment for the seeds of future work to grow into a thriving, enduring ecosystem of ideas and actions. Our pioneer stage isn’t growing from a completely “barren substrate” however. We’re rich in resources—our science, staff, partners and you, our supporters reading this!

While developing these recommendations will be inherently challenging, it’s critical that we get it right together. How we reach our goals is just as important as the goals themselves, and our collaborative process should reflect principles of justice, equity and mutual support. In other words, the process itself should be a model of the world we are trying to create.

Drawing inspiration from Team Science—a collaborative approach to scientific challenges—Adrienne Maree Brown’s Emergent Strategy, which highlights the importance of cultivating relationships, trust, and community-building in collaborative work, and Dean Spade’s Mutual Aid, which emphasizes equitable distribution of roles, responsibilities, and credit in a supportive environment, we have created a team charter, establishing the principles guiding how we will work together.

The team charter aligns members on the goals we are working toward and how members will approach the work together, providing clarity and focus. It creates a shared understanding of the team’s purpose and mission and fosters a sense of ownership and commitment that makes it easier to stay focused on long-

above left: Moss and lichen covering the Arctic tundra. / photo by Chris Linder above right: Golden helps student researcher Esmeralda Torres Martínez collect samples. / photo by Sue Natali

October 2024

term goals. By clearly defining roles and responsibilities, the charter reduces confusion and prevents overlap, ensuring that everyone’s contributions are recognized and understood. The guidelines for equitable participation, decision-making, and conflict resolution, set forth in the charter, help build a culture where all voices are heard and respected. Principles of flexibility and continued improvement are embedded into the charter as well, allowing the team to adapt as needed.

07

fresh growth and kickstarting another round of succession. We find ourselves asking: How might we spark deep and lasting change for a just climate future? The forest teaches us that the answers lie in cycles of renewal, in allowing space for the new while honoring the stability of what’s been built.

Our hope is that this foundational work, like the pioneer stages of a forest, sets the stage for a process of ongoing growth, adaptation, and transformation that will carry Woodwell’s climate justice work into the future. As our work progresses (starting now with developing those recommendations), we’ll move through the intermediate stages of ecological succession— where new members are integrated and experimentation thrives.

We’ll learn from both successes and setbacks, like our scientists testing their ideas in the field. Ultimately, we’ll cultivate a mature, stable ecosystem, where deep-rooted relationships hold the committee together.

Yet even in this stage, just as in a primary forest, dynamic change continues. A gap in the canopy lets in light, sparking

In the news: highlights Dr. Jen Francis has been featured in hurricane-related coverage by multiple outlets recently. ABC News interviewed her for a story on what to expect for the rest of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. She was also quoted in a story from The Atlantic about the impossibility of hurricane modification, and in one from The Los Angeles Times, where she spoke about the importance of climate action in the face of increasing extreme weather. Al Jazeera interviewed her about Hurricane Milton and how climate change is impacting hurricanes.

A story from KYUK quoted Dr. Sue Natali on Permafrost Pathways’ work with communities in Alaska’s Y-K Delta, including audio from her participation in a panel discussion during the annual Arctic Encounter Symposium.

TV Gazeta interviewed graduate students of Dr. Foster Brown’s first class on Communication of Scientific Research at the Federal University of Acre. He was also interviewed on Faixa Livre about drought in Acre, Brazil, and the importance of values and education in the context of living on a finite small planet.

Dr. Zach Zobel spoke to The Boston Globe about Boston’s vulnerabilities to flood damage from hurricanes.

Folha de Sao Paolo interviewed collaborator Dr. Leandro Maracahipes about long-term research on fire and forests at Tanguro Field Station.

An article from the Cary Institute announced funding to support firefighting efforts protecting carbon stored in Alaska’s Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge, and quoted Dr. Brendan Rogers, who is one of the project leads.

Dr. Rich Birdsey was quoted in a story by Columbia Insight that digs into the jargon around forest conservation.

A widely-syndicated article from USA Today quoted Dr. Jen Francis on a recent study she co-authored, which found that Arctic warming is associated with extreme winter weather in North America.

A Bloomberg article about the thousands of fires burning in the Amazon quoted Drs. Mike Coe and Manoela Machado; the story was also published in the Boston Globe.

A story on Esri’s blog about nature-based solutions for erosion in Point Hope, AK cited science by Permafrost Pathways.

Rafe Pomerance participated in a coastal resilience and sea level rise workshop hosted by WHOI, and was quoted in their story covering a subsequent report.

The Ford Foundation listed Woodwell Climate among grantees aligned with their COP26 pledge to support the tenure rights and forest guardianship of Indigenous Peoples and local communities.

cover: A team, including Dr. Jonathan Sanderman, conducted soil sampling field work in the Elders Grove, Mohawk Trail State Forest, MA. / photo by Colleen Partida

Donations play an important role in securing the future of Woodwell Climate Research Center’s work—and help safeguard the health of our planet for generations to come. woodwellclimate.org/give @woodwellclimate #sciencefortheworld

149 Woods Hole Road Falmouth, MA, 02540-1644

CLIMATE SCIENCE FOR CHANGE.

Please help us to conserve paper. To receive this newsletter electronically, please send your email address to info@woodwellclimate.org