Dr. Raj Chetty Keynote Data 2025

Creating Opportunity in Winston-Salem New Insights from Big Data Raj Chetty Harvard University Winston-Salem Foundation | May 2025

The Geography of Upward Mobility in the United States Average Household Income at Age 35 for Children Born in 1978 whose Parents Earned $27K (25th percentile) Dubuque $45.5K

Portland $33K

Columbus $28K

Pittsburgh $36K

Bridgeport $33K Philadelphia $31K

Las Vegas $30K

Baltimore $28K Winston-Salem $27K Charlotte $26K Baton Rouge $30K Austin $31K Source: Chetty, Hendren, Kline, Saez (QJE 2014)

<$20k

$33k

>$55k

Blue = More Upward Mobility Red = Less Upward Mobility

Changes in Opportunity for White Americans White Children with Low-Income Parents Born in 1978

Born in 1992

Household Income Percentile at Age 27 for Children with Parents at 25th Percentile $30.8k $33.7k $40.9k

Changes in Opportunity for Black Americans Black Children with Low-Income Parents Born in 1978

Born in 1992

Household Income Percentile at Age 27 for Children with Parents at 25th Percentile $18.8k $21.2k $25.6k

The Geography of Upward Mobility in the United States Average Household Income at Age 27 for Children born in 1992 whose Parents Earned $27K Black Children Born in 1992

$18.8k

White Children Born in 1992

Household Income Percentile at Age 27 for Children with Parents at 25th Percentile $30.8k $21.2k $25.6k $33.7k

$40.9k

Change in Avg. Household Income for Black Children from Low-Income Families

Changes in Mobility for Black vs. White Children with Low-Income Parents $6k

$4k

Forsyth County

$2k

0

-$2k

-$6k

-$4k

-$2k

Change in Avg. Household Income for White Children from Low-Income Families

0

Trends in Economic Mobility by Group in Forsyth County Change in Children’s Income in Adulthood born to Low-Income Parents, 1978 vs. 1992 Birth Cohorts Born in 1978

Born in 1992 $29.8K

White $24.7K

Hispanic $18.9K

Black

$31.0K

$22.1K

$31.3K

Asian

American Indian

All

$31.4K

$12.1K

$25.1K

$25.7K

$26.3K

Source: Opportunity Atlas, Opportunity Insights and the US Census Bureau

$35.0K

Determinants of Economic Mobility

The Geography of Upward Mobility in Winston-Salem Average Income at Age 35 for Children Born in 1978 whose Parents Earned $27,000 (25th percentile)

See estimates for other cities at The Opportunity Atlas www.opportunityatlas.org <$10k

$34k

>$60k

Blue = More Upward Mobility Red = Less Upward Mobility Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Jones, Porter (NBER wp 2018)

Characteristics of High-Mobility Neighborhoods

Lower Poverty Rates

More Stable Family Structure

Better School Quality

Greater Social Capital

Economic Opportunity and Social Capital Upward Mobility Based on Tax Records

Average Household Income at Age 35 for Children whose Parents Earned $27k

Economic Connectedness Based on Facebook Data

>$44k

> 52.5%

$33k

38% - 40%

<$27k

< 29%

Share of Above-Median-Income Friends among Below-Median-Income People

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Jones, Porter (2018); Chetty, Jackson, Kuchler, Stroebel et al. (Nature 2022)

Economic Opportunity and Social Capital Winston-Salem Upward Mobility Based on Tax Records

Economic Connectedness Based on Facebook Data

Average Household Income at Age 35 for Children whose Parents Earned $27k

Share of Above-Median-Income Friends among Below-Median-Income People

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Jones, Porter (2018); Chetty, Jackson, Kuchler, Stroebel et al. (Nature 2022)

Policy Interventions to Increase Economic Mobility

Three Policy Approaches to Increasing Upward Mobility

Reducing Segregation

Place-Based Investments

Higher Education & Workforce Training

Help Low-Income Families Move to High-Opportunity Areas

Increase Upward Mobility in LowOpportunity Areas

Amplify Impacts of Colleges and Training Programs on Mobility

Three Policy Approaches to Increasing Upward Mobility

Reducing Segregation

Place-Based Investments

Higher Education & Workforce Training

Help Low-Income Families Move to High-Opportunity Areas

Increase Upward Mobility in LowOpportunity Areas

Amplify Impacts of Colleges and Training Programs on Mobility

Where Housing Voucher Holders Live in Winston-Salem

25 most common tracts where voucher holders lived in 2015-19 <$10k

$34k

>$60k

Blue = More Upward Mobility Red = Less Upward Mobility

Where Housing Choice Voucher Holders Live in Seattle 25 most common tracts where voucher holders lived in 2015-17 Percentile Rank in Adulthood > 60 ($55k)

48 ($39k)

< 30 ($20k) Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Jones, Porter (2018)

Creating Moves to Opportunity Experiment Seattle and King County, WA

Randomized trial to test strategies to reduce barriers that voucher recipients face in moving to highopportunity areas: • Customized counseling • Connections to landlords • Short-term financial assistance

Fraction of Families Who Leased Units in High-Opportunity Areas Phase I Results

% of households moving to high opportunity neighborhoods

60%

54%

50% 40% 30% 20%

14%

10% 0% Control

Source: Bergman, Chetty, DeLuca, Hendren, Katz, Palmer (AER 2023)

Treatment

Three Policy Approaches to Increasing Upward Mobility

Reducing Segregation

Place-Based Investments

Higher Education & Workforce Training

Help Low-Income Families Move to High-Opportunity Areas

Increase Upward Mobility in LowOpportunity Areas

Amplify Impacts of Colleges and Training Programs on Mobility

HOPE VI Neighborhood Revitalization Program Housing Opportunities for People Everywhere: $16.7 bn spent to Revitalize 261 Public Housing Sites (1993-2010)

Before Revitalization Happy Hill Gardens, Winston-Salem Source: Chetty, Diamond, Foster, Katz, Porter, Staiger, Tach 2025

After Revitalization Alders Point, Winston-Salem

Three Policy Approaches to Increasing Upward Mobility

Reducing Segregation

Place-Based Investments

Higher Education & Workforce Training

Help Low-Income Families Move to High-Opportunity Areas

Increase Upward Mobility in LowOpportunity Areas

Amplify Impacts of Colleges and Training Programs on Mobility

The Contribution of Colleges to Economic Mobility in North Carolina Upward Mobility vs. Low-Income Access 80

Upward Mobility Rate % of students from bottom 20% who reach top 20%

70 60 50 40 30

MIT Stanford Harvard Duke Wake Forest

UNC Chapel Hill Queens U. of Charlotte

NC State UNC Pembroke Davidson UNC Charlotte

North Carolina A&T Winston-Salem State U.

NC Central U. Guilford College 20 UNC Greensboro Miami Dade CC Salem College CC Of Philadelphia 10 UNC Wilmington Stanly CC Bunker Hill CC Central Piedmont CC Edgecombe CC Forsyth Tech CC Rowan-Cabarrus CC 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Low-Income Access % of students from families in bottom 20%

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Saez, Turner, Yagan (2020)

45

50

The Contribution of Colleges to Economic Mobility in North Carolina Upward Mobility vs. Low-Income Access 80

Upward Mobility Rate % of students from bottom 20% who reach top 20%

70 60 50 40 30

MIT Stanford Harvard Duke Wake Forest

UNC Chapel Hill Queens U. of Charlotte

NC State UNC Pembroke Davidson UNC Charlotte

Vaughn College Of Aeronautics And Technology North Carolina A&T Winston-Salem State U.

NC Central U. Guilford College 20 UNC Greensboro Miami Dade CC Salem College CC Of Philadelphia 10 UNC Wilmington Stanly CC Bunker Hill CC Central Piedmont CC Edgecombe CC Forsyth Tech CC Rowan-Cabarrus CC 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Low-Income Access % of students from families in bottom 20%

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Saez, Turner, Yagan (2020)

45

50

Improving Economic Opportunity in Charlotte

Land of Opportunity? Not by a long shot.

“When the headline broke about the Harvard University/UC Berkeley study that ranked CharlotteMecklenburg 50th out of 50 in upward mobility for children born into our lowest income quintile, many in our community responded with disbelief. How, on the one hand, can we be such a vital and opportunity-rich community, and on the other, be ranked dead last in the odds that our lowest income children and youth will be able to move up the economic ladder as they become adults?”

$160M corporate investment in local workforce development

Mayor’s initiative raises $250M to boost opportunity in Charlotte

A local data tool developed to monitor opportunity indicators for >100 area nonprofits

Source: The Charlotte Observer (2018); YearUp & Bank of America | The Mayor’s Initiative | Leading on Opportunity

Changes in Economic Mobility Across Areas 1978-92 Birth Cohorts, 50 Largest Metro Areas (Commuting Zones)

Top 5: Most Improved

Bottom 5: Least Improved

Explore your community’s data Opportunity Atlas: www.opportunityatlas.org

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