HUMAN FUTURES
Insight for the Futurati
DECEMBER 2021
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Erik F. Øverland President
LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT
Dear Members, Colleagues and Friends,
I
N the middle of the 4th wave of the Covid-19 pandemic we all need some positive and intelligent input in our lives. This new issue of the Human Futures Magazine meets this expectation. One of our most dominant experiences from the pandemic is the substantial increase in post-truth perspectives, or alternative truths, as a speaker of the former US-President liked to call it. The flow of “alternative truths” and conspiracy theories has definitely increased the last two years and we all are struggling with the big “How” to meet this challenge. In this context the contribution of Kevin Jae is intriguing as he presents an alternative mode of thinking about the growth of fake news and conspiracy theories. From his alternative lens, we can see fake news and conspiracy theories as a signal of the decline of dominant narratives, which open up gaps for alternative narratives to emerge. Not only in the realm of ideas and theory, but also in our daily lives, dominant narratives that earlier used to structure the lives of individuals are declining. As I read him, there is now a need for creating new dominant “Grand” narratives to be able to encounter this development. I think this is both intriguing and exciting and in particular as Futurists this could be an interesting journey to follow. Further in this issue Thomas Lombardo follows up his earlier contributions and elaborate on an original and interesting way what is underlying his concept of “evolution of consciousness”. In particular through analyzing Science Fiction movies and literature Lombardo gives us a stimulating and very interesting look into his universe. William (Bill) Halal is a long standing figure in the Futures community. His article “Beyond Knowledge:…” represents another attempt to deal with some of the challenges listed above. This time diving into the question on how technology is driving an age of consciousness. With the following observation as the point of departure “…the digital revolution is driving the world beyond knowledge into a new frontier governed by emotions, values, beliefs, and higher-order thought. An
“Age of Consciousness” is here, though one may not like its current form”, he advocates an evolutionary perspective. This “Age of Consciousness” is the latest level in an evolutionary development and we should be engaged in shaping “a workable global consciousness out of this morass of differences to support almost eight billion people coexisting on this single planet”. All these three contributions point both at the need for human beings to create “universal narratives”, or what I in different settings have titled “Universal Perspectives”. Deconstruction and critique is not enough, you have to construct new meanings, not only for yourself but for the whole Humankind… In the Review Room we will find both Book Announcements and Reviews. Here we find reviews of in total six books written by such different author as Richard Slaughter, William Halal, Theo Priestley/Bronwyn Williams, Claire A. Nelson, Rohit Talwar/ Steve Wells/Alexandra Whittington, and Thomas Mengele. All very worth while reading. In addition, David Lindsay-Wright reviews the film “My Octopus Teacher” and presents “The eleven tomorrows & F3” and a Futures Film Festival for us. This time we also have a section on Games. This issue is rounded off with valuable contributions by Claire A. Nelson, Jerome Glenn, Thomas Cramer, Marguerite Coetzee, Ralph Mercer and some most important announcements in the WFSF Happening section. Here I want everybody to take notice of Luke van der Laan’s presentation of the WFSF ACCREDITATION SERVICES. I wish you all a happy READING, a merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year!
Sincerely Yours, Erik
Erik F. Øverland President
World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) wfsf.org HUMAN FUTURES
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EDITORIAL COMMITEE Erik Overland Editor-In-Chief
Claire Nelson Editor-At-Large
“Until we see the value of sharing the future, we will not achieve the future we most value”
Tyler Mongan Managing Editor
Amy Fletcher Features Editor
Hank Kune Features Editor
The future is not what it used to be
Elissa Farrow Features Editor The future requires us to be comfortable with uncomfortableness. Love, listen and respect each other on our way to the future.
Leopold Mureithi Review Room Editor
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Mohsen Taheri News & Events Editor
Livia Ivanovici Art Director
Cristophe Bisson Copy Editor “Future that is sustainable requires to hybridize Human and Machine”s
Barbara Bok Copy Editor
“If the future is measurable, achievable and safe, we failed miserably. The future we need is risky, messy, amazing and post-humanist.”
Ralph Mercer Digital Editor
Rosa Alegria PR & Marketing
“Hope is the fuel that drives the engine of the desired future”
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TABLE OF CONTENTS LETTER FROM THE PRESIDENT
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Erik Overland
FOREMOST FUTURE MATTERS
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Claire A. Nelson
FUTURE BAROMETER Claire A. Nelson
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FEATURES Kevin Jae
THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF CONSCIOUSNESS
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Tom Lombardo
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BEYOND KNOWLEDGE: HOW TECHNOLOGY IS DRIVING AN AGE OF CONSCIOUSNESS William Halal
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REVIEW ROOM FROM DYSTOPIAN TO HUMAN FUTURES: A THREAD TRUNCATED Leopold P. Mureithi 32 DELETING DYSTOPIA: RE-ASSERTING HUMAN PRIORITIES IN THE AGE OF SURVEILLANCE CAPITALISM 34 Richard Slaughtern
REVIEW OF MY OCTOPUS TEACHER David Lindsay-Wright
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THE ELEVEN TOMORROWS & F3 David Lindsay-Wright
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GAMES PEOPLE PLAY: FARM SIMS FOR THE FUTURE Katryna Starks Ph.D. 38
PROGNOSIS CONVERSATIONS ON THE FUTURE WE WANT…UN AGENDA 2030
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With Pamela Coke Hamilton & Kate Brown
UNITED NATIONS IS INCREASING ITS FORESIGHT CAPACITY
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Jerome Clayton Glenn
TECHNICAL NOTES THE STRENGTH OF CO-CREATION
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Thomas Kramer
MUSICAL FUTURES: SINGING FUTURES INTO BEING 58
Marguerite Coetzeen
WFSF Happenings WFSF ACCREDITATION SERVICES LAUNCHED! Dr Luke van der Laane
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WHY FUTURES ALWAYS ALREADY HAS TO BE OPEN. SOME REFLECTIONS ABOUT THE WFSF BERLIN CONFERENCE, OCT 26TH-29TH 2021 Erik F. Øverland 64
AFTERMOST THE NEED FOR A NEW RELATIONSHIP WITH THE POSSIBLE ‘FUTURES.’ Ralph Mercer 68 HUMAN FUTURES
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FUTURE MATTERS
CULTIVATING TRUST FOR PEACE ON EARTH By Claire A. Nelson
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021 has blown by like a hurricane. Space Tourism. The Omnicron Variant of the COVID 19 and the deflated expectations from COP-26. A lot has happened to change the trajectory of the future for the better in some ways it seems. And yet when we consider the statistics on crime, corruption, violence and wars, we seem to be worse off now that when we started. As I contemplate the Christmas season with its message of ‘Peace on Earth’ and ‘Goodwill to All’, I wonder why is it so hard for our species to be at peace, to cultivate peace, to envision peace. How and why is it, that despite all the technological marvels we have, we still are not happier? How is it that despite all ability to splice the genome and 3-D print body parts and send probes to Mars, we still don’t seem to have the tools to engineer our way out of the never-ending wars? How might we get to more peaceable futures? I wonder if the metrics we have in our rule books are not contributing to the problem. Perhaps we might get to peace faster if our economy measured and valued Gross National Happiness over Gross National Product. Perhaps we would be better off defining and deploying metrics about well-being or some other human-centric data, that address what people really want and need to help them thrive. But how does one really capture ‘how you are feeling about life?’ in a score? Or do you take account of subjective realities embedded in the question ‘how you are feeling about your opportunities for advancement in your city?’ This is a real question to be addressed so that the architects and engineers of the SMART Cities of
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the future fabricate the metrics that matter for improving on human wellbeing. This is needed if we are to achieve more peaceable futures, f rom the cloth of the society we have today. We might begin by bringing in all the actors in the system at hand. Too often participatory planning begins and ends with the political leaders and captains of industry. Too often the ones who are assumed to be on the margins are excluded from the planning pool. The pool of leaders may sometimes extend to the leaders of the Main Street Chamber of Commerce, for example, but how are the leaders of churches, temples and mosques, Girl Scouts, homeless shelters, pre-kindergarten schools, sanitation workers, and juvenile detention centers included in the conversation about smart cities. When we talk about designing SMART City X 2050 (Mexico, Boston, London or New York) who decides who gets a seat at the table? If we’re to move towards peaceable futures that are conducive to human thriving, as opposed to the dystopian futures of the movies we love to fear, we need find the seeds to the soul of society. There’s this idea that technology is going to solve all our problems. But we live in a world of duality. It’s Yin and Yang. So quite often we set out to solve one problem, and we succeed in creating new problems. We invent self-driving autonomous SMART cars. But now we wait for the solution of how we are going to ensure that if the GPS network system winks out, we have a way to address in real time the cascading effect of thousands of suddenly offline self-driving cars in the hands of unskilled drivers. In addressing the design for SMART cities how will we take account
of the second and third order impacts? Is there an APP for that? I do believe that if we look at some of the fault lines of our society, around poverty and exclusion, there are ways in which we can use technology to support people’s empowerment and advance equity as envisaged by SDG 10, but this assumes that the people in question have the agency of confidence in themselves to first of all create a clear and compelling vision of the future they want. (And I might add feasible and accomplishable vision of the future.) For vision exists long before the creation of the path of purpose and missions to journey towards that future. And that future of the imagination is the birthplace of the material future being co-created. If the vision is so far from reality and seems like a fantasy e.g. a move from one murder a day to one murder a year, nobody will believe it to be possible and so there will be not enough social capital invested around that shared vision of the future. Here is where the power of foresight as narrative, as story, can begin to bring reality to life. Communities can be equipped with the tools to bring them together to have the conversations that immerse them in the construction of their future -- consciously. Something happens if you’ve crafted the story in the right way. The first move gives rise to the next trigger for change. The story becomes the driver. The positive futures narrative they have created helps to dissipate the charged fear factor that blocks our ability to problem solve and
innovate as needed. The narrative they co-create help us rehearse the future. The futures narrative then serves to seed the self-confidence needed to step out in faith. It also supports the community empowerment process that is necessary to seed hope. Hope-- the currency on which you’re going to build the SMART Cities of the future. It goes without saying that the leaders must be futures literate. The institutions also must be responsible for policy and planning and demonstrate organizational ambidexterity. ‘Organizational ambidexterity’, can be defined as an organization’s ability to be aligned and efficient in its management of today’s demands as well as being agile and adaptive to changes in the environment taking place all around, all the time. The strategic conversations on peaceable futures will need to benefit from, as well as build up, social capital and social cohesion -- which are two sides of the same coin. The third side is trust. Social capital and social cohesion are critical elements for growing peaceable futures and human-smart cities. A critical ingredient in the petri-dish for growing social capital and social cohesion is trust. Public trust in government is low. Yet we need trust for a civilized and civil society. We need to trust that the system will function and that the rule of law is going to work in your favor in order to prevent a return to the wild, wild west and the need to bear arms. Trust is vital to the construction of a robust and resilient social infrastructure. Unfortunately, these days in part because of the unforeseen consequences of AI and the way we use data, trust is breaking down even in the news. We now live with the construct of fake news. Media literacy is a skill responsible citizens must acquire. Who is telling me this news and why? The news no longer comes f rom the two or three trusted sources, who are arbitrators of social order and heirs and guardians of the fourth estate. Media now is in the hands of everybody who has a smartphone; and clickbait is driving the news cycle. The more salacious the headline, the more the clicks, and the more money they make, ‘KaChing!’ Therefore, twisting and turning the truth has cash value. And our trust is being chipped away. What does that mean for the social capital and cohesion, so important for the good of the whole. What then is the future of trust? The social
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contract seems to be breaking if not already broken here, there and everywhere. Many if not most of the working poor and the marginalized around the world, do not believe the system works for their good. No doubt because of the failures of promises to create the rising tide that can lift all boats. Trust for many people is like the blinking Christmas light. Now you see it. Now we don’t. How can we cultivate or seed or design and build trust? Can we actually do ‘this A’ over here and achieve the impact we want on ‘that B’, over there. Or is trust something that arises as a second or third order consequence of something else? This is truly an instance where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. The reality is that social cohesion is not an endpoint. It’s an ongoing process. We are always constructing it one action and reaction at a time, in each and all of our relationships. Trust does not live in the four walls of a building or in the pages of the many rule books. Trust lives in the relationships between people and organizations. Trust comes before the rule of law. A high trust society contributes to social cohesion and social capital and vice versa that make the rule of law possible. If we were to try to def ine the soul of society according to the SMART f ramework – it would rest in f ive principles – Solidarity, Mutuality, Altruism, Reciprocity and Trust -- all of which are inextricably linked one to the
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other. These notions come f rom us having the consciousness of ourselves as an interdependent species. From South Af rica we have brought the concept of ‘ubuntu’ into more visibility. I am because you are. Increasing social cohesion means we must get better at giving, not just taking, and receiving. This is about us caring for the soul of our communities or cities. I am not sure we have the metrics that can readily measure that. How can we measure the values systems f rom where we def ine the laws and regulations that will determine how we live in the material world? Our soul qualities inform the way we design and engineer our physical world. I believe there is power in the stories we tell ourselves and as such, we should craft stories that allow us to rehearse the futures we want. If we put ourselves – our hopes out there maybe we can learn to trust ourselves. To trust each other as peers. To trust in our leaders and especially increase inter-generational trust. Trust in the systems of government and governance. Maybe we can increase the social capital and cohesion we need to cultivate more peaceable futures. And maybe, just maybe we can move humanity up a notch on the evolutionary curve and we can say and mean ‘Peace on Earth’ and ‘Goodwill to All Humanity’. Our futures are ours to co-create. Can we trust ourselves to co-create our common good?
FUTURES BAROMETER
HUMAN FUTURES
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GIFTS FOR THE TWELVE DAYS OF CHRISTMAS FUTURES By Claire A. Nelson
A
S I think about the future of the tradition of Christmas gift-giving I think surely, this will come to an ed as the landf ills cry out for relief and the asteroid run remains out of the reach of all but the wealthiest of communities. But then maybe the need to give and get is so addictive we can’t get over it. So, what is a well-meaning next generation futurist with credits for most sustainable student at their high school kings, queens and in-betweens competition supposed to get to give. Here are the Gifts for the TWELVE DAYS of the Christmas’ Futures, more politically known as the global end-of-year Giving Thanks Holiday.
TWELVE UV Face Masks You can never have too many face masks. Especially f rom this amazing selection of eco-f riendly LED face masks with fun designs with sizes for the entire family. The UV mask is able to sense the type of vectors and adjust the wavelength of light emitted in response. It also supports the treatment of skin by including LED lights that emit light f rom a different wavelength. Red light stimulates the production of collagen and elastin. Blue light treats acne. Violet light deals with age-related skin changes and removes pigment spots. This is a little pricey, but well worth it for the laugh-line reversal alone.
ELEVEN Self-Cleaning Bottles Water the elixir of life, and we now have a way to drink it clean all the time. These self-cleaning water bottles have a portable water purification device. The patented UV-C LED technology to kill up to 99 percent of bacteria, odors and viruses in your water — and in your water bottle. And you don’t need any filters! Double-walled to keep drinks chilled for up to 24 hours, and made from a safe, non-toxic material that is BPA and plastic-free. More water please.
TEN Endless Batteries These rechargeable batteries are the gold standard for saving the planet. They can morph in size and power
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to mimic the performance of eight AA batteries, two AAA batteries, two C battery adapters, two D battery adapters, and a four-battery charger. You can recharge these batteries up to 3,660 days and they’ll retain up to 70% of their maximum charge over 10 years. That’s sustainability on steroids. Just say Yes!
NINE V-translators Whether traveling virtually or really, you won’t have to play charades to ask questions to someone who does not speak your language… whether Armenian to Xhosa, and wherever on or off the planet you are. This bracelet-sized device doesn’t need Wi-Fi to work either, so breaking the ice is always a charm.
EIGHT Mood Sunglasses This cool pair of shades made from grass and recycled plastic bottles gives you crisper, clearer vision and higherquality colors. When tested it was found the lenses eliminate 99.9% of glare and block 100% of harmful UVA/B/C rays. Did we mention it changes color with your mood?
SEVEN life-saving bracelets Each bracelet has a button that, when pushed two times, immediately sends an SOS text and their location to five loved ones. The bracelets are made from bioengineered plastic that is programmed to measure the stress cortisol present and specify the level of threat. Such rescue me from this bad date, rescue me I am being carjacked. The ‘Sweat Shop’ customizes contacts and settings and tracks system for a $1 month. This adds-up to a hefty revenue when you have over 1 billion users.
necessary. Designed to fit different finger sizes, so anyone can use it, it comes with sensors that also enable the testing of your sweat for toxins.
FOUR E-Green House Plants When you give someone a Greenish house plant, you’re giving them a life-giving gift. Green Houseplants bring life and color into a living space as well as other benefits. Some E-Greene houseplants remove pollutants from the air. Bio-Energized Bamboo Palm plants, for example, remove harmful elements like formaldehyde and benzene. Plus, because we know how challenging it is for you to keeping them alive, each plant comes with its own Plant Nanny-- an AI enabled Plant whisperer.
THREE Life Packs A Life Pack for everyday care allows you to off-set your carbon footprint when traveling given its start as fiber from upcycled, ocean-bound plastic, come outfitted with solar charger, an air and water Purifieer, and is sized to carry enough for a long weekend that needs only your smart silk travelers six-piece clothing system with fibers that can adapt to the temperature of your body and the ambient environment.
TWO Hemp-Hearty Socks Hemp has maintained its value despite the die-off the hype over hemp. And these hemp hardy socks are the ultimate cool owing to the sensible fibers woven into the fiber that reduce the need for sweat gland upgrading surgery by wicking away all smelly foot odors. Hemp remains a sustainable and reliable— material for socks and everything else fibers.
SIX Holo-Readers No more trailer load of books creating havoc in your tiny home. No more books in the house - stacking on top of each other and taking up space. Add in Augmented Reality (AR) which is becoming more and more widespread, and you can see why this holo-reader with a pull-out virtual keyboard that only you can see, builds in the AR used for the entertainment in the book. For example, if the characters can play games like pool and see the trajectory of the balls on the table, so can you. The holo-reader is a great alternative to purchasing a book. Even the most basic device can transport you to the world of your story.
AND A Portable Personal Air Purifieer Everyone deserves to have clean, germ-free air in their personal environment whether seasonal allergies or Covid-30. This portable air purif ieer looks like the Jetsons but is better. Easy to use and weighing just 14 ounces, the eco-f riendly Air Purif ieer has e a 3-stage f iltration process that captures 99.7% of airborne pollutants. At the same time, it is highly eff icient using just enough energy to power a single light bulb. The 360 degree air intake means you can place it anywhere in a room, because it performs no louder than a whisper on the lowest setting. Social distancing no longer required.
FIVE Cellphone rings This hands-free and ears-free device allows you to get rid of all the Bluetooth radiation around your ears and accept calls by placing your finger on your ear only when
Please rank these gifts in the order of most (12) desired to least (1) . “Now SING along friends!!”
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FEATURES
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FAKE NEWS AND CONSPIRACY THEORIES: A SIGNAL OF DECAYING DOMINANT NARRATIVES By Kevin Jae
I
N 2016, the Oxford English Dictionary declared post-
of society as being designated as such by the old
truth the word of the year, describing the adjective
establishment—the “old religion”—when confronted by
as “relating to or denoting circumstances in which
new, alternative narratives. These alternative narratives are
objective facts are less influential in shaping public
designated by the established elite class as “superstition,”
opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief.” The
or in our contemporary equivalents, fake news and
choice of the word reflected the emergence of fake news
conspiracy theories. Nietzsche contributes two things
and conspiracy theories in the public discourse. This essay
to our discussion. Firstly, there is a power dynamic
will attempt to analyze the topic and to examine it with a
at play: the established elite class (whether cultural,
different frame: fake news and conspiracy theories are a
economic, political, or otherwise) can designate some
signal of decaying dominant narratives.
narratives as “true” and designate other narratives as “fake
I propose that we begin by considering this passage by Nietzsche: “The signs of corruption.— Consider the following signs
news” or “conspiracy theories.” Secondly, we can read “superstition,” (or “fake news” and “conspiracy theories”) as the liberation of alternative narratives, perspectives, and
of those states of society which are necessary from time to
ideologies, which the established elite class experiences as
time and which are designated with the word ‘corruption.’
“corruption”—or the decline of their own ideological control
As soon as corruption sets in anywhere superstition
over dominant narratives. This is not to deny that certain
becomes rank, and the previous common faith of a people
narratives or perspectives are factually untrue. However, if we
becomes pale and powerless against it. For superstition is
pause the element of facticity for now, we come up with an
second-order free spirit: those who surrender to it choose
interesting new frame of analysis: fake news and conspiracy
certain forms and formulas that they find congenial and
theories are the signal of a declining dominant narrative. As
permit themselves some freedom of choice… Those who
previously dominant narratives decay, there is space for new
then complain of corruption are the adherents of the old
narratives to appear and fill in the gaps.
religion and religiosity, and they have also determined
Numerous signals point to the deterioration of
linguistic usage hitherto... [emphasis added with bolded
dominant narratives in our contemporary society. I
text]” (p. 96).
demonstrate this with a brief overview of some leading
A brief explanation is in order to translate the passage for our discussion. Nietzsche speaks of the “corruption”
intellectual movements. According to postmodern theorist Jean-Francois Lyotard, the post-modern
HUMAN FUTURES
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philosophical movement emerged in
With climate change, human society is
problems (some of which are discussed
the wake of the death of metanarratives
potentially faced with an End of Human
above) that humanity confronts.
that characterize modernity, like the
History if there is no change to the
According to Postnormal Times scholars,
Enlightenment or “the progressive
current (political) status quo.
the current, post-normal historical
emancipation of reason and f reedom,”
In economics, neoliberalism emerged
moment is a transitional period f rom
communism or “the progressive or
as the dominant ideology in the 1970s
normalcy; we live in a world beset by
catastrophic emancipation of labour”
and extolled the values of the f ree
uncertainties. The Postnormal Times is
and technological development or “the
market, arguing for the greater role
marked by the death of the dominant
enrichment of all humanity through the
of the private sector in economy
paradigms and orthodoxies of the past:
progress of capitalist technoscience” (p.
and society through deregulation,
without a dominant narrative of the
17). These metanarratives are not divorced
privatization, f ree trade, and cuts to
present, new narratives brew beneath
from material conditions, as they had
the public sector. The growing political
the surface.
once legitimated “social and political
challenges to neoliberal dogma
institutions and practices, laws, ethics,
throughout the decade were capped
movements mean for ordinary people?
ways of thinking” (p. 18).
off with the COVID-19 pandemic,
All of these movements have massive
when governments all over the world
potential ramifications for individuals and
Fukuyama declared the End of History
demonstrated their necessity for the
it is important to connect these ideas to
after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the
good welfare of their citizens. Alongside
the terrain of everyday lives. There has
end of the Cold War, declaring “the end-
government support for citizens during
been similar decay of dominant narratives
point of mankind’s ideological evolution
the pandemic, the post-COVID era
that structure individual experiences. The
and the universalization of Western liberal
has been marked by regulation of
next section will focus more specifically
democracy as the final form of human
technology (e.g. Big Tech), repatriation
on examples in the U.S. context, although
government.” There are challenges to the
of supply chains, increased support
some of these trends apply more globally.
universal dominance of liberal democracy
for domestic industries, and other
by external factors like China and by
assertions by the government. This has
Donald Trump touched an important,
internal factors, such as the inability
led many to identify the death of the
unaddressed sentiment when he claimed
of the current system to adequately
neoliberal experiment.
that “the system is rigged.” The diagnosis
In the field of political science, Francis
address urgent existential problems,
In futures studies, polymath futurist
What do these intellectual
During his election campaign,
was felt to be accurate for many, although
some of which include wealth inequality,
Ziauddin Sardar’s elaboration of the
remediatory actions failed to follow
environmental devastation, climate
Postnormal Times attempts to provide
f rom a policy standpoint. Economic
change, and risks from biotechnology.
terms of analysis for the current global
conditions for the average citizen have
NOTES: Oxford Languages (n.d.). Word of the Year 2016. https://languages.oup.com/word-ofthe-year/2016/ Nietzsche, F. (1974). The Gay Science (W. Kauf mann, Trans.). Random House. (Original work published 1887) 3 A perfect translation between a) Nietzsche’s discussion on superstition and b) our contemporary usage of the terms fake news and conspiracy theories is not possible; however, the comparison suffices to advance our discussion 1
2
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Lyotard, J.-F. (1997). The Post-Modern Explained (D. Barry, B. Maher, J. Pefanis, V. Spate, & M. Thomas). University of Minnesota Press (1988) 5 Francis, F. (1989). The End of History? The National Interest, 16, 3-18. http://www.jstor. 4
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org/stable/24027184
Meadway, J. (2021, Sept 3). Neoliberalism is dying – now we must replace it. Open Democracy. https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/neoliberalism-is-dying-now-wemust-replace-it/; Tooze, A. (2021, Sept 2). Has Covid ended the neoliberal era? The Guardian. 6
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/sep/02/covid-and-the-crisis-of-neoliberalism; Eaton,
G. (2021, June 16). Is the neoliberal era f inally over? The New Statesman. https://
failed to improve; real wages have been
taxes legally and that they have made
other online, and eventually develop an
stagnant since the 1970s. Workers are
trillions during the pandemic, while
interpretative lens through which they
increasingly transformed into precariats.
ordinary people have suffered? To
comprehend the world. Online tribes often
They work as contractors, Uber drivers,
explain phenomena like thes, “conspiracy
descend into echo chambers, and can
and f reelancers and are stripped of
theories” like the Great Reset emerge
become small islands of interpretation. In
stability to conform to labour market
to make sense of reality, where global
these circumstances, a unified, singular
signals. Meanwhile, the cost of housing,
political and economic elites have
narrative to unite numerous interpretative
the single most important indicator of
conspired to control the world economy
perspectives is difficult.
middle-class stability and success, have
through the COVID-19 pandemic.
increased exponentially. Both rent and
It is necessary to address a f inal
It is easy to dismiss fake news and conspiracy theories as a signal of the
ownership is unaffordable for many,
point, and this is how ideas are
irrationality of the masses, fuelled by
leading to a housing crisis. The COVID-19
mediated in contemporary society,
social media. However, through the
pandemic has negatively impacted the
which adds to the f ragmentation of
article, I have endeavoured to present
livelihoods of many, but as of October 18,
public discourse. Media production
an alterative mode of thinking about
2021, billionaires in the U.S. have made
and distribution in the internet age is
the growth of fake news and conspiracy
$2.1 trillion during the pandemic while
radically different f rom the production
theories. From this alternative lens,
evading taxes.
and distribution of media in the
we can see fake news and conspiracy
The previous dominant myth of
past. In the past, the production and
theories as a signal of the decline of
the American Dream, or the belief in
distribution of media required large
dominant narratives, which open up gaps
correlation between hard work and
capital expenditures. With the internet,
for alternative narratives to emerge. A
personal success, is turning to be just
the everyperson operating alone is
review of various intellectual movements
that: a myth. As previously dominant
able to write, produce, and distribute
show that dominant narratives are
narratives become nonsensical,
media online; through the internet,
declining in the realm of ideas and theory.
new narratives emerge to explain
the amateur content creator has the
In the realm of everyday lives, dominant
contemporary phenomena; these
same potential reach as large media
narratives that have structured the lives
narratives theorize a different set of
corporations. The internet has also
of individuals are also declining, and new
cause and effects. Why is it that despite
changed media consumption with online
narratives are filling in the gaps. Finally,
the existential crisis of climate change,
tribes, who are groupings of individuals
media production and distribution on the
politicians fail to legislate and to create
that have overcome spatial boundaries
internet exacerbates the fragmentation
policies to meet the urgent need? How
to form groups of voluntary association.
and makes it difficult for a dominant
is it that billionaires manage to evade
These groups communicate with each
narrative to emerge.
www.newstatesman.com/business/economics/2021/06/neoliberal-era-finally-over
Sardar, Z. (Ed.). (2017). The Postnormal Times Reader. United Kingdom: Centre for Postnormal Policy & Futures Studies. 8 Desilver, D. (2018, Aug 7). For most U.S. workers, real wages have barely budged in decades. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most7
us-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/
This may be the source of another potential f ragmentation. In previous times, workplaces and unions may have led to the congelation of certain narratives; now, workers are increasingly individual economic agents. 9
10 United States Census Bureau. (Revised 2021, Oct 8). Historical Census of Housing Tables: Home Values. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/coh-values.html 11 Collins, C. (2021, Oct 18). Updates: Billionaire Wealth, U.S. Job Losses and Pandemic Profiteers. Inequality.org. https://inequality.org/great-divide/updates-billionaire-pandemic/ 12 Nietzsche’s point must be restated again, here; there is a power dynamic that govern the definition of conspiracy theories and fake news 13 Goodman, J., & Carmichael, F. (2020, Nov 22). The coronavirus pandemic ‘Great Reset’ theory and a false vaccine claim debunked. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/
news/55017002
HUMAN FUTURES
19
THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF CONSCIOUSNESS The Center for Future Consciousness
By Tom Lombardo
20
HUMAN FUTURES
W
E need to evolve our consciousness. Watching the news, listening to the
media, reading essays, books, and reports on current world affairs, contemplating projections of looming existential threats and dire predictions about our future, and observing and puzzling over the beliefs and behavior of people across the globe, the most striking and pervasive problem I see, greatly contributing to all of our major difficulties, is weaknesses and deficiencies in contemporary human consciousness. Both individually and collectively, our conscious minds seem too self-centered; narrow in perspective; irrational; defensive; entrenched and tradition-bound; anxious, pessimistic, and depressive; deceitful and dishonest; anti-intellectual and even thoughtless; opinionated and delusional; fragmented, shallow, and muddle-headed; and irresponsible. We embrace new technologies, gadgets, pills, and assorted consumer goods and products and we worship wealth and economic solutions as pathways to a good future, but in so doing miss the key point that it is our beliefs, values, desires, emotions, and modes
phenomenon. To be conscious is to be
consciousness—seeing, hearing, and
of thinking and understanding within
aware and to experience. We awaken
touching—we know the world. Our unique
our conscious minds that have created
to existence through consciousness.
selves—the “I” we experience at the
our present human world and generated
Consciousness is the medium in which
center of our awareness and our lives—is
our problems. We are the cause of our
everything that is meaningful to humans
a reality of consciousness. It is through
troubles and the solutions lie within us.
is manifested and understood. Although
conscious intention that we make and
We need to evolve our consciousness.
humans possess physical bodies and live
remake our human world.
in a physical world, our understanding It is no surprise that consciousness and
At the core, humans are conscious
of the physical world, including our
beings with conscious selves that perceive,
its further evolution is critically important
own physical bodies, comes through
think, feel, desire, remember, anticipate,
to our future. Consciousness is an amazing
consciousness. Through perceptual
imagine, and purposefully initiate actions
NOTES: 1 2
Center for Future Consciousness: https://www.centerforfutureconsciousness.com/ Future Consciousness Insights: https://www.centerforfutureconsciousness.com/archived_
newsletters.htm.
3 See my book Future Consciousness: The Path to Purposeful Evolution (https://www. centerforfutureconsciousness.com/book_future_consciousness.htm) for an extensive in-depth
examination of “future consciousness” and “purposeful evolution.” 4 See my book The Pursuit of Virtue (https://www.centerforfutureconsciousness.com/book_ pursuit_virtue.htm) for a more in-depth analysis of the weaknesses of contemporary consciousness and how such failings contribute to our most basic global problems.5 Francis, F. (1989). The End of History? The National Interest, 16, 3-18. http://www.jstor.org/ stable/24027184
See my three volume book series: Science Fiction: The Evolutionary Mythology of the Future (https://www.centerforfutureconsciousness.com/book_info.htm).
5
HUMAN FUTURES
21
with their conscious minds. Indeed,
previous publications listed at the end
developed a powerful and unique mode
all our interpretations of the present
of this essay. Recently I began a series
of evolution, which involves consciously
and its problems, and all our proposed
of new essays in my online publication
and intentionally guiding the process of
solutions for a better world are creations
Future Consciousness Insights on “The
change both within us and around us.
of human consciousness. The accuracy
Purposeful Evolution of Consciousness.”
Everything in nature evolves, but humans
and depth of our understanding of the
My goal is that these essays will grow into
engage in purposefully guiding the
world and the efficacy of our actions
a book. What follows are highlights of
process of evolution, and since the control
depend upon the wisdom and acumen
some key ideas in this emerging book:
of fire and the invention of tools we have
of our consciousness. All in all, through
n We live in an evolutionary universe
been doing so for hundreds of thousands of years.
consciousness we experience and know
and on an evolutionary earth—the
the world and ourselves, and through
cosmos and the earth have evolved
consciousness we evaluate our present
and continue to evolve; humans, as
possible through our capacity of future
conditions and purposefully interact
well as all other life forms on the earth,
consciousness: We can consciously
with reality, attempting to change it
are evolutionary beings embedded in
anticipate and imagine possible futures,
through consciously directed behavior.
this evolutionary universe, and hence
identify values and set goals for the future,
Consciousness is the arena in which the
humans psychologically and physically
and purposefully implement plans and
future will be envisioned, understood, and
have transformed and evolved through
actions for realizing our values and goals.
created; it is critically important that we
time. Human nature is not static, but
Because we can be conscious of the
further evolve it.
transformative and evolutionary. Human
future and its myriad possibilities we can
consciousness has evolved across time.
intentionally with thought and motivation
I have had a long fascination with the nature of consciousness and the
n As a distinctive expression of
reader is referred to a number of my
evolution in the cosmos, humans have
22
HUMAN FUTURES
n Purposeful evolution is made
make choices and direct the ongoing flow of events toward envisioned and desirable
futures. With a conscious “eye on the
essence, we apply future consciousness to
future” we guide evolution and change.
guiding the flow and direction of our own
n Purposeful efforts by us to intentionally evolve our
conscious minds. n Knowledge is power and an
consciousness stretch back at least
important first step in enhancing
thousands of years. As conscious beings
our capacity to further evolve our
that engage in purposeful evolution,
consciousness is to better understand
we have been attempting, at least since
the nature of consciousness. As some
the beginnings of recorded history, to
fundamental facts about consciousness: In
purposefully evolve ourselves. Diverse
normal human consciousness we appear
practices and disciplines of study, from
to ourselves as embodied (possessing
spirituality and religion to psychology and
physical bodies) and personalized
philosophy, have aspired toward this goal
conscious beings (possessing unique
in many different forms. As evidenced in
personal selves); we are conscious of
historical records, for a long time humans
ourselves (we have the capacity for self-
have demonstrated the capacities to:
consciousness) as localized and situated
Engage in self-assessment and self-
in a surrounding environment; in a
consciously and introspectively observe
multitude of ways we are conscious of
and evaluate the content and flow of their
our relationships with the surrounding
consciousness; based on self-improvement
environment (we require this capacity
goals, values, and desires and techniques
in order to survive); consciousness is
of thought and imagination modify
always from a point of view (a personal
and enhance their consciousness; and
perspective) and mentally framed within
communicate and teach ideas on such
our unique concepts and theories;
aspirations and practices to others. Sages,
human consciousness though has the
spiritualists, and philosophers have
capacity to transcend the perceptual
attempted to model such practices of
here and now through abstract and
self-evolution for others to observe and
hypothetical thinking, memory and
learn from.
future consciousness, and imagination;
n Moreover, for both the past and
moreover, human consciousness has
present, the purposeful evolution of our
the capacity to strive toward increasing
consciousness has been a normal and
objectivity through standards and
pervasive activity within human life.
practices of good thinking and knowledge
Evolution, in fact purposeful evolution,
acquisition; consciousness is multi-faceted,
reveals itself in the individual streams
involving perception, emotion, desire,
of human consciousness. All of us, to
thought, imagination, memory, and
various degrees, engage in purposeful
conscious resonance with other conscious
efforts to evolve our own consciousness,
beings; the rich and diverse tapestry
and in many ways attempt to direct the
of consciousness also possesses an
evolution of consciousness in others. The
integrative quality—all the elements come
stream of individual consciousness is an
together as a whole with an ongoing
ongoing flow of personal efforts to guide
sense of one person, or self, experiencing
our own thoughts, feelings, and states of
this whole; but consciousness is also
mind in the direction of the goals, ideals,
dynamic, flowing with new thoughts,
and values we embrace for ourselves. In
perceptions, emotions, and images that
HUMAN FUTURES
23
appear and replace old ones from moment to moment—there is perpetual “becoming and passing away” within consciousness; the dynamic flow of consciousness is directional from the present into the (becoming of the) future—the flow of consciousness is future-directional; and the directional flow of personal consciousness is evolutionary—as conscious selves we attempt to guide our thoughts and emotions, and attempt to cultivate and develop a sense of who we are, of increasing maturity and growth, and a sense of where we are heading. n Although we all engage in the purposeful evolution of our consciousness, we often do so haphazardly, halfheartedly, incompetently, and resistantly. It is difficult to initiate and generate personal change; personal growth and evolution require effort. We may focus more on surviving, or protecting our present self-identity and the status quo, rather than attempting to grow as a conscious being. Humans show the dual motivational dispositions toward stability and change, and in multiple ways people attempt to preserve and maintain what is familiar and constant, finding change aversive. Change requires imagination and frequently we only grow and change if forced to. Frequently we try to change others rather than evolve ourselves. Often we slight our own self-evolution in favor of attempting to change the physical world through inventing new machines, devices, contraptions, and technologies. Still across our lives and across the great panorama of human history, human consciousness does change and evolve, and our theories and practices regarding how to evolve our consciousness keep developing. The evolution of consciousness is both possible and highly desirable. n As noted above, consciousness is multi-faceted and there are many dimensions and capacities of consciousness that we can either personally or collectively
24
HUMAN FUTURES
further evolve; the future evolution of
egocentricity; anti-intellectualism and
consciousness is not simply intellectual.
anti-rationality; relativism and subjectivism;
We can evolve our bodily and perceptual
authoritarianism, dogmatism, and
consciousness; we can evolve our conscious
closed-mindedness; irresponsibility; fear
behavioral skills. Also, we can evolve: our
and depression; apathy, nihilism, and
motivational and emotional consciousness;
a floundering state of being; paranoia,
our memory abilities and historical and
defensiveness, and violence; lack of
future consciousness; our thinking, reasoning,
empathy and concern for justice and
and intuitive abilities; our aesthetic and
equality; consumerism and passive
ethical consciousness; our creativity and
consumption; excessive media immersion
imagination; and our personal self-identity
and addiction; and flighty short-term
and interpersonal consciousness.
attention and mental fragmentation. These
n In evolving our consciousness, we
problems in human consciousness are root
can identify a set of pervasive problems
causes of our current social, environmental,
and weaknesses in contemporary human
political, economic, technological, and inter-
consciousness that we can focus on
cultural contemporary challenges.
minimizing or even eradicating. Among key failings are excessive presentism and
n We can also take a positive approach and focus on the enhancement of key
ideals to pursue in the future evolution of
planetary and cosmic consciousness,
with alien forms of intelligence and
consciousness. One central and holistic
understanding ourselves in the big
consciousness could teach us a great deal
ideal is to more enthusiastically and
ecological picture of the evolution of the
about the possibilities of consciousness;
diligently embrace personal growth, and
earth and the universe.
we could develop multiple selves (many
increasing our desire and capacity to
n A thought-provoking, stimulating
conscious selves in one body) and distributed
evolve our consciousness. (We won’t evolve
approach to envisioning the future
consciousness or Gestalt minds (one
unless we believe it is possible and highly
evolution of consciousness is to examine
conscious self supported by many bodies);
desirable.) Other ideals of consciousness
science fiction; science fiction is not just
we may vastly extend human longevity and
include: Greater perceptual attentiveness
about the future possibilities of science and
live multiple conscious lives; we may find
to the world and others; increased self-
technology. Science fiction offers a huge
ways to travel with our conscious minds
awareness and the evolution of more
array of cosmic and far future possibilities
through time and become trans-temporal
distinctive and empowered selves;
regarding the evolution of consciousness.
forms of consciousness; and finally, we
greater self-responsibility, especially
The renowned futurist and science fiction
could develop “space minds,” transcending
regarding our future; enhanced realistic
writer H.G. Wells strongly advocated in
planetary-based consciousness and create
hope and optimism; more positive
a number of his fictional novels that the
distributed group consciousness that
emotionality (including love, gratitude,
key to a better world in the future was
spans the universe, becoming cosmic
joy, and life enthusiasm); expanded
the collective psychological evolution of
minds in the far distant future.
temporal consciousness (of the past and
humanity. Although imagining galactic-level
future); enhanced ecological and global
scientific and technological advances in the
numerous grave challenges today,
consciousness; the heightening of the
far future, the great science fiction writer
the purposeful future evolution of our
love and skills of learning and thinking;
Olaf Stapledon focused on the wondrous
consciousness will provide pathways for
improved participation in the creation and
potential evolutionary developments in
transcending our current disturbing state of
appreciation of beauty; the development
conscious minds, ethics, and wisdom in
reality and disquieting state of perception.
of character virtues and authentic ethics;
the coming epochal saga of humanity and
Evolving heightened awareness, experience,
strengthening deep purpose and meaning
intelligence in the universe.
and understanding can take us on a journey
in life; and greater interpersonal resonance
n As some possibilities explored in
n Although it appears that we face
that will be immensely inspiring and
science fiction: We may transcend both
enlightening. It is not enough to cure our
biologically and psychologically our
present problems; the elimination of illness
the future evolution of consciousness,
current species (Homo sapiens), and
is not the same as health and vitality. We
certain holistic and general ideals can be
humanity may diversify into multiple
need to pursue a guiding light that uplifts
identified: We should heighten our future
descendent species; we may redesign
our spirits. Consciousness is the light of the
consciousness, since future consciousness
our bodies, brains, and minds; we
world and we need to purposefully evolve
is the overarching guidance capacity
may greatly enhance our symbiotic
our consciousness.
for the evolution of consciousness; as an
relationships with machines, the latter
integrative character virtue we should
perhaps achieving consciousness in the
pursue and develop wisdom and attempt
future; we may evolve into virtual minds
to live a personal wisdom narrative for our
living in highly complex virtual realities;
future; since we are evolving cyborgs, as
through technology and redesigned
functional syntheses of the technological
biology we may develop the capacity for
and biological, we should aspire toward
mind-to-mind communication (telepathy)
being wise cyborgs, in which we create
and networked communal consciousness;
and use technologies to serve the pursuit
we may realize (through technological
and exercise of wisdom; collectively we
augmentation) the power to manipulate
should aspire toward a wise society,
and directly create physical objects through
consciously identifying with a grand
thought (telekinesis); increasingly we may
wisdom narrative for humanity as a whole;
communicate and collaborate with other
and as a fundamental expansion of our
types of consciousness, including plants,
consciousness, we should strive for both
animals, and alien intellects—contact
with others. n Based on such specific ideals for
ADDITIONAL PUBLICATIONS ON CONSCIOUSNESS: n “The Future Evolution of Consciousness” World Future Review, Vol. 6, No. 3, Fall, 2014. n Consciousness, Cosmic Evolution, and the Technological Singularity” Journal of Futures Studies, Vol. 17, No. 2, December, 2012. n “The Ecological Cosmology of Consciousness” Journal of Cosmology, Special Issue: “Consciousness and the Universe”, Vol. 14, April-May, 2011. n “The Future Evolution of the Ecology of Mind” World Future Review, Vol. 1, No. 1, Feb., 2009.
HUMAN FUTURES
25
BEYOND KNOWLEDGE: HOW TECHNOLOGY IS DRIVING AN AGE OF CONSCIOUSNESS By William Halal
26
HUMAN FUTURES
HUMAN FUTURES
27
T
HE great Jesuit anthropologist, Pierre Teilhard de Chardin, has long fascinated us with his vision that the
world would evolve into a “noosphere,” 1a great web of consciousness enveloping the Earth. It seemed a lovely but distant ideal, yet the Digital Revolution has now made that dream a reality. The noosphere is here today, and it promises to transform our lives, our work, social institutions, the global order, and our very minds and souls. Not too long ago, we relied on telephones and newspapers to communicate. We now use two billion personal computers (PCs), 14 billion cell phones and laptops, and two billion TVs. The information flows through 30 million Internet servers, 3,500 space satellites and almost one million miles of undersea cables. This planetary layer of digital connections knits eight billion people into a living overlay of thought – the noosphere. Although the world has an abundance of communication, it is not a very happy place. Just as the Gutenberg printing press unleashed a flood of information that led to wars and the Protestant Reformation, today’s deluge of knowledge
28
HUMAN FUTURES
“
Consciousness is not the same as “goodness,” as is often thought by New Age enthusiasts. Like knowledge, consciousness encompasses all in its domain – including hate, conflict and delusion.
”
has erupted into a post-factual mess dominated by disinformation, conspiracy theories, climate deniers, political gridlock and other sources of confusion that pose an existential crisis. Beyond Knowledge You would think we should have been enlightened by the past two decades of the Knowledge Age, so why do people seem badly misinformed, emotional, and unreasonable? Despite the great evidence readily available, many do not believe in evolution, climate change, vaccination, and other aspects of established science. The Knowledge Age is passing as smartphones, social media, and artif icial intelligence automate knowledge. Knowledge is still crucial, but the digital revolution is driving the world beyond knowledge into a new f rontier governed by emotions, values, beliefs, and higher-order thought. An “Age of Consciousness” is here, though
doing, or what is right morally and what
recognizable; the trend would run flat and
one may not like its current form.
is wrong. Rational logic does not explain
make a sharp 90 degree turn straight up.
Whatever one thinks of former president
why people are altruistic or self ish,
Trump, all would concede that he is
kind or cruel, enlightened or ignorant.
brilliant at creating an alternative reality.
Knowledge can never replace love,
this accelerating evolutionary process,
He is a master at shaping consciousness.
wisdom, or a guiding vision.
and the logical next step is consciousness.
The smartphone, for instance,
Above the fray, there is a direction to
Roughly four million years were needed
has made the world’s entire store of
The Life Cycle of Evolution
to found Agrarian Civilizations. Nine
knowledge available to anyone at the
I have struggled with this problem
thousand years to invent Industrial
touch of a f inger. There’s no shortage
for years, and the result is Figure 1
Society. One hundred years for the
of knowledge, and so people have
showing what I call the “Life Cycle of
Post-Industrial Era. Five decades to a
moved up a notch to pursue various
Evolution (LCE).” Similar graphs have
Knowledge Age. And the past 20 years to
beliefs, while social media spreads
been sketched in general terms,
an Age of Consciousness.
disinformation. Artif icial intelligence is
this is the f irst to plot the long-term
automating knowledge work, forcing us
evolutionary trend using real scales
throughout history, of course, so
to wonder what lies beyond knowledge?
and real data.
what is new really? This transition
By def inition, everything beyond
graphs show scattering of data points.
can be understood through a similar
knowledge is consciousness.
Whereas plotting the LCE data is
evolutionary shift to the Knowledge
This dilemma poses one of the
3
2
but
Most plots of such
Consciousness has been around
remarkable because the data points f it
Age. Information has also been used
great ironies of our time. The Digital
an S-curve precisely. The logarithmic
throughout civilization, of course. But
Revolution has created a wealth of
time scale is needed to encompass the
the Knowledge Age began when digital
knowledge that is almost inf inite, but
billions of years at the start of life, as
technology matured about two decades
the power of facts is badly limited.
well as decades today. Without a log
ago into the most powerful force on
Knowledge cannot tell us what is worth
scale, the shape of the LCE would not be
Earth, occupying the bulk of the labor
NOTES: Pierre Teilhard de Chardin, The Phenomenon of Man (New York: Harper, 1955) For instance, the field of “big history” has studied similar time scales. See ibha. wildapricot.org (June 2, 2017) 3 Halal, “The Life Cycle of Evolution: A Meta-Technological Analysis of Civilization’s 1
2
Progress” (Journal of Future Studies, 2004) Vol. 9, No. 1 “Quote of the Day” (New York Times, Sep 13, 2019) 5 New York Times, Aug 20, 2019 6 William Halal and Michael Marien, “Global MegaCrisis” (The Futurist, May-Jun 2011) 7 Stephen Hawking, “This Is the Most Dangerous Time for Our Planet” (The Guardian, Dec 1, 2016) 4
HUMAN FUTURES
29
force, and our very minds. In a similar way, shaping consciousness is now a powerful technology, although barely understood, and it is changing the world. Think of the explosion of opinion, disinformation and emotion blasting out of loudspeakers like Facebook and Twitter. Anybody can use social media to shape public opinion, for better or worse. Politicians around the globe struggle to infiltrate the information systems of their adversaries,
“
The late Stephen Hawking worried about “widening inequality, climate change, food, decimation of species, epidemic disease, acidification of the oceans. This is the most dangerous moment in the development of humanity, and our species must work together.” 7
”
and they casually dismiss criticism as fake news. One analyst framed the problem this way: “In the past, wars were conducted with weapons. Now it’s through social media.”4 The great challenge now is, how to
company and stakeholders. These ideas may be reasonable, but
and, most recently, the Information Revolution. As the LCE shows, we
many doubt such dramatic change
are now in the beginning throes of a
is possible. In 2020, the “Black Lives
“Mental/Spiritual Revolution” to kick-
shape a workable global consciousness
Matter” movement began shifting
start the Age of Consciousness. In
out of this morass of differences to
attitudes around the world, illustrating
short, it appears the world is heading
support almost eight billion people
that consciousness is changing even
toward some type of historic shift in
coexisting on this single planet?
now. This push for racial justice is led by
consciousness, a collective epiphany, a
Consciousness is the inner terrain
young people across the political and
new mindset, code of global ethics or a
in which we live our lives, and it is
racial spectra, the cohort that favors
spiritual revolution.
changing rapidly to cope with the
global consciousness. It is reminiscent
slightly crazed demands of high-tech
of the “Me Too” movement that ousted
the universal lifecycle that all living
global order. People are embracing
sexual predators, and the passing of
systems pass through -- birth (start of
mindfulness, living with nature and
gay marriage laws a few years ago. Big
the S-curve), growth (upward phase),
using psychedelics to relieve stress,
change arrives when the time has come.
and maturity (leveling off). The global
provide insight and improve health.
The Life Cycle of Evolution follows
crisis is an inf initely larger version of the
The evidence shows that these
Passing the Crisis
same crisis of maturity that transforms
techniques can instill respect for the
of Global Maturity
teenagers into adults. But the typical
planet, cooperation, understanding
This historic transition also poses
teenager has not learned to control their
and compassion that are essential to a
enormous threats that seem almost
impulses, struggles with inner doubts,
unif ied world – a global consciousness.
impossible. Climate change and the
and can’t cope with a confusing world.
Even now, shifts in public
entire constellation of end-of-the-world
At some point, the stress becomes so
consciousness are transforming the
challenges comprise what I call the
severe that most teens eventually f ind
major organs of society – government,
“Global MegaCrisis,” or the “Crisis of
the courage to grow up and become
business, universities, religion, and
Global Maturity.” My studies f ind that
responsible adults. In a roughly similar
other institutions. For instance, the
roughly 70 percent of the public thinks
way, the crisis of maturity is humanity’s
Business Roundtable announcement
the present world trajectory will lead
challenge to become a mature
that f irms should serve all stakeholders
to disaster. Ask anyone off the street
civilization. The world is being forced to
is truly historic. The New York Times
and you will probably get the same
grow up and to develop a sustainable
called it a “watershed moment ... that
answer. People have deep fears about
global order – or perish. With foresight,
raises questions about the very nature
today’s failures in governance, and they
hard work, and a little luck, we could see
of capitalism.” 5 Leading corporations
attribute it to a lack of leadership, vision,
the triumph of human spirit, once again.
like Johnson & Johnson, IKEA, Nucor
and cooperation.
Steel, Nortel, and Unilever collaborate
6
Each stage in social evolution has
For a fuller explanation, see a synopsis of my latest book: Beyond
with employees, customers, suppliers,
been propelled by revolutions – the
Knowledge: How Technology Is
and governments to solve tough
Agrarian Revolution, the Industrial
Driving Consciousness, at www.
problems and create value for the
Revolution, Post-Industrial Revolution
BeyondKnowledge.org
30
HUMAN FUTURES
R E V I E W ROOM HUMAN FUTURES
31
FROM DYSTOPIAN TO HUMAN FUTURES: A THREAD TRUNCATED By Leopold P. Mureithi Co-Chair, The Millennium Project Kenya Node
C
ONTENT analysis of six books
dystopia. In Beyond Knowledge:
Technology and Society reflects
recently received in the Review
How Technology is Driving an Age
aspects of applications compatible with
Room reveals a core message of
of Consciousness, Halal looks at
avoidance of dystopia and the reification
moving f rom dystopia to a more human
macrohistory and sees a life cycle
of human-agency consciousness.
future. A long outstanding futurist,
of evolution (LCE). Though he does
Richard Slaughter, notes in his book
not explain why this is a “cycle”, he
corner” (Jarod Kintz), the Issue of the
Deleting Dystopia: Reasserting Human
notices an acceleration: “Roughly four
time scale to consider remains. To Priestly
Priorities in the Age of Surveillance
million years were needed to found
and Williams, it is simply the question of
Capitalism that “innovations initially
Agrarian Civilizations. Nine thousand
the relevant planning horizon: “whatever
regarded…as liberating and helpful have
years to invent Industrial Society. One
time horizon we are looking towards” (p.
become absorbed into an oppressive global
hundred years for the Post-Industrial
161). In addition to this freedom of choice
system….more dangerous and invasive with
Era. Five decades to a Knowledge Age.
of time f rame, critical to delineating the
each passing year….the tendency toward
And the past 20 years to an Age of
time perspective is the interplay between
unliveable dystopian futures is becoming
Consciousness….the inner terrain in which
uncertainly and plausibility – being
unavoidable” (pp 1-2). Surveillance
we live our lives….awareness, mood and
“long enough;” not strictly calendar
capitalism (SC) is a “mutant form of
understanding” (p. 30). This consciousness
dependent, and never ignoring the
capitalism that unilaterally claims human
revolution is likely to lead to “a tangible,
near-term because sometimes “the
experience as f ree raw material.” (p. 200).
productive and more meaningful way of
advanced civilization that we should really
To counter this technological dystopia,
life” (p. 34). This future is already evolving
worry about is one that is just 15 minutes
he prescribes deleting dystopia by
at present. Like William Ford Gibson
ahead….[not light years in the future]”
which he means “not about working to
wrote in The Economist of 4 December
(Woody Allen). According to Jim Dator’s
eliminate a powerful idea but, rather,
2003, “the future is already here -- it’s just
First Law, “one of the main tasks of futures
getting behind those human and social
not evenly distributed.”
studies is to identify and examine the
While “The future is right around the
The simplest definition of the future
major alternative futures that exist at any
its realisation as a radically diminished
is “any time f rom now;” and the past is
given time and place” (emphasis added).
condition of human life” (p. 192); this
“time gone.” Since this means that the
by promoting “human and cultural
“present” is a fleeting moment, one
great challenge now is, how to shape
development” (p. 198).
must agree with Theo Priestley and
a workable global Consciousness….to
forces that collectively move us away f rom
Recall Halal’s Beyond Knowledge: “the
Bronwyn Williams that they captured
become a mature civilization” (pp. 32-33,
a megatrend towards human
the reality in titling their book The
emphasis added). That “how” is dealt with
consciousness that could drive humanity
Future Starts Now. The sub-title Expert
by Claire Nelson’s SMART Futures for a
away from possible technological
Insights into the Future of Business,
Flourishing World: A Paradigm Shift
Fortunately, William Halal records
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HUMAN FUTURES
for Achieving Global Sustainability. She
be solved by the same ideas that created
creates the term “SMART as a mnemonic
it.” Thus, new ideas are necessary. Claire
for the principles:
Nelson’s treatise contains plenty of those.
Colorado, Jim Dator’s email of August
n S = sustainable systems
So does Aftershocks and Opportunities 2:
2021 to WFSF members noted that “he
n M = moral metrics
Navigating the Next Horizon. Edited by
and I talked about the futures, and…I was
n A = anticipatory agency
Rohit Talwar, Steve Wells, and Alexandra
quite impressed. And depressed that
n R = robust resilience
Whittington, the book contains 40
there were so few like him then, and, it
n T = transformational technology”
chapters by 37 authors f rom 16 countries
seems, even fewer now.” To this Reuben
on five 5 continents. The perspectives,
Nelson added that “he was outstanding….
ideas and creative solutions offered are a
for public service, not personal gain.”
treasure trove.
William Halal agreed that “Richard was
(p. 90). Applied properly, “The SMART Futures f ramework is a process that can help shape that mindset….reinforcing
Come to think of it, ideas and possible
the laws they make. In eulogizing Richard Lamm of
an unusual politician who fearlessly
approaches to ‘complex systems
solutions to human problems are not
proposed progressive policies….and…
solutioneering’….the basic construct for
the major constraints. This sobriquet
said what other politicians were afraid to
the global future of flourishing we want
is earned by def icient implementation
touch. He is the kind of man who is badly
to co-create….Everywhere. Every time.
which is underpinned by poor
needed today.”
Everyone”(pp. 95-96). This is well put.
leadership. The role of leadership is the
The dearth of such leaders should be
focus of be volume edited by Thomas
“no reason to quit the struggle” (Reuben
crisis – actual or perceived – produces
Mengel and titled Leadership for the
Nelson). On the contrary, the futurist
real change. When that crisis occurs, the
Future: Lessons f rom the Past, Current
community should “help create the
actions that are taken depend on the
Approaches, and Insights f rom Futures
societal contexts in which persons such
ideas that are lying around” Yet, Robert
Studies and Foresight. Many leaders do
as Richard would offer themselves up for
Einstein warned that a problem cannot
not walk their talk, even in enforcing
public service.” Point to ponder.
Milton Freedman stated that “only a
HUMAN FUTURES
33
DELETING DYSTOPIA: RE-ASSERTING HUMAN PRIORITIES IN THE AGE OF SURVEILLANCE CAPITALISM By Richard A Slaughter Foresight International, Brisbane, 2021
By embedding its values and goals into concrete technologies, capital seeks to assert dominion over the future - constraining what type of social change is viable. This makes techno-politics a natural battleground for staging struggles over what utopias are imagined and whose utopia is materialised. - Jathan Sadowski, Real Life, 2021
General Introduction
T
no ‘ordinary’ hazards since, even in the present, relatively early stages, the
HIS book presents a critical analysis
tendency toward unliveable dystopian
of the IT revolution in the early 21st
futures is becoming unavoidable. Thus,
Century and, in so doing, seeks to
to conf ront and ‘delete’ dystopia is
account for the way that innovations
not merely a question of prudence. It
initially regarded by early pioneers as
constitutes a vital series of time-critical
liberating and helpful have become
investments in the futures of our
absorbed into an oppressive global
grandchildren and of future generations. There’s something distinctly odd,
system that appears more dangerous and invasive with each passing year. It’s not a
or ambiguous, about this story. The
particularly easy call since this is a huge
systems and devices that we’ve become
subject. Moreover, many of the services
so dependent upon only reveal very
that the system provides appear, on the
limited aspects of themselves to human
surface, to meet authentic human needs.
senses in the context of our everyday
We tend to forget that in order to make
lives. It can be a shock to realise that a
each and every device appear desirable,
vast slice of reality, known only to a few,
every item of consumer hardware (smart
controlled by fewer still, holds us in an
phones, tablets, screens and related
the rationales and practices that create
invisible grasp, directs our actions and,
devices) has been subjected to purposeful
such radically diminished and reductive
in the process, by-passes our conscious
design and testing. The whole effort is
views of human life. The point here is
senses and undermines our critical
backed by pervasive high-end marketing
not that the products of this revolution
judgement. To deal with this ‘other world’
that has, over several decades, sought
are not useful. Clearly, they are and may
of hidden codes, distant servers, cloud
to construct entire populations as
well continue to be. But the current
repositories, hidden power structures,
passive consumers. Not, it should
‘terms of engagement’ are unacceptable
obscure algorithms and the like, we need
be noted, as autonomous beings,
both in principle and in practice. What
to become conscious of them and how
meaning-makers, who deserve be seen
is clearly at stake are the growing costs,
they operate. That is a primary purpose
and respected as such.
dependencies and long-term hazards
of this book. In this connection, some
that have crept up on entire populations
readers may recall the Matrix film trilogy.
almost unawares. These are, however,
It drew on similar concerns by depicting
It follows that, in order to understand what is at stake, we need to conf ront
34
HUMAN FUTURES
stark, and at times shocking, contrasts
into her master work (considered in
real-world situation. The aim is to clarify
between the awesome power of these
Chapter Four). Since language is part
some of the ways in which the current
hidden entities and the diminished
of her gift and one of the keys to depth
system exerts its power and influence
status of humanity. In effect it provided
understanding, a glossary of key terms is
over whole societies, to their present and
a kind of f ictional ‘master class’ that
included in the Appendices.
long-term detriment. Four ‘witnesses
showed why these hidden structures
With Chapter Three the focus shifts
to the revolution’ are then introduced.
and processes needed to be revealed.
toward several broadly def ined areas
These are people who, in one way or
Without that knowledge, that clarity of
that serve to f rame possible solutions.
another have had relevant experience
understanding, we remain beholden
Since the notion of ‘compulsive
of some of the core issues. They have,
to forces we can neither see nor hope
innovation’ is relevant to the whole
so to speak, ‘done their homework,’
to understand. With it we take the f irst
project the f irst section takes a critical
so their accounts are both recent and
steps toward reclaiming our dignity, re-
look at some of the existing and possible
reliable. It’s all-but certain that they’ve
asserting human needs and replacing
future expressions of this impulse. The
worked independently. Taken together,
redundant values with consciously
following sections consider the grounds
they provide a coherent overview of the
adopted ones that make greater sense
of various possible solutions under
current state of play. They are telling us
in our f ragmented and imperilled world.
a variety of headings and conclude
that while the age of traditional utopias
A secondary purpose of the book is to
with a brief review of values and moral
may be over, the outlines of technological
foreground the work of others who have
development. Far f rom being obscure
dystopia are already taking shape
also considered these issues in some
esoteric matters, these topics reflect a
around us. The final section of Chapter
depth. Chapter One picks up the story
further theme of the book. Namely that
Four draws a number of conclusions. It
f rom the viewpoint of various qualif ied
while science and technology are often
recognises useful work already being
observers during the early 2010s. It is a
assumed to be neutral, this is merely a
carried out and suggests a broadly
useful place to begin since this is when
convenient – and problematic - fiction.
two-pronged response to the present
serious concerns about ‘where the IT
Both reflect aspects of the society (values,
over-dominance of ‘Big Tech.’ On the one
revolution was going’ began to arise
institutions, regulatory regimes, culture
hand, a firm and steady continuation by
and underlying issues were beginning
etc.) in which they occur. It follows that
governments of their efforts to enforce
to emerge. Many ideas were generated
current usages tend to be misleading
various forms of regulation (privacy, tax
that served to prime and inform
and diversionary. The term ‘technology’
reform and anti-trust measures). On the
subsequent debates. Chapter Two
cannot merely be applied to a limited set
other, significantly increased support for
considers three distinct issues that have
of physical objects but need to include
civil society, ‘sharing cities,’ community
attracted signif icant critical attention:
the networks and wider human / social /
start-ups and the like. Both multi-initiatives
the ‘internet of things;’ the prospect of
cultural / environmental contexts in which
are required to take market share away
‘driverless’ cars; and growing concerns
they are embedded. For these and many
from the oligarchs by creating equivalent
about what exactly was going on inside
other reasons, new technologies cannot
or improved services based not on the
the slick but isolated world of Silicon
but exhibit a range of unforeseen and
familiar capitalist imperatives of profit
Valley. It’s in the latter connection that
unintended side effects. As such they
and exploitation but on defensible, clearly
we f irst encounter Shoshana Zuboff
need to be considered ambiguous f rom
articulated human and community values.
who has probably done more than
the outset and subjected to intense
This is urgent work in its own right. But
anyone else to reveal what surveillance
broad-spectrum evaluation. While the
even more so in light of other existential
capitalism is and how it operates. Her
‘tunnel vision’ of powerful actors allow
threats facing humankind.
early critique of what she called ‘the
them to ignore such inconvenient facts,
big other’ pre-dates her impressive
the wider consequences of ‘rushing’
of the oligarchs, if not to be removed
book on this subject by several years.
such innovations to market can be, and
entirely f rom history, then to be
Yet even at that stage, it helped to
are, severe.
signif icantly diminished and replaced
register a new stream of informed insight and enhanced clarity that fed
Chapter Four draws on the foregoing to propose a way of understanding our
It’s time for the power and influence
by carefully designed and implemented democratic alternatives.
HUMAN FUTURES
35
REVIEW OF MY OCTOPUS TEACHER Directors: Pippa Ehrlich & James Reed Starring: Craig Foster as himself
C
RAIG FOSTER, South African filmmaker and founder of the Sea Change Project finds himself at a life crossroads physically and emotionally
burnt out from overwork. Thereupon, an unassuming and unpretentious hero’s journey unfolds as the free diver Foster encounters by chance an octopus and over a year of daily visitations to the same opulent kelp forest just off shore of South Africa’s wild west coast, Foster and the octopus develop an unlikely and tender relationship, a bond, as it were, between species. At first or even second viewing, Foster’s lovely and touching film My Octopus Teacher is hardly a ‘futures’ film. But apart from its obvious technical qualities - exquisite camera operation and editing, or its aesthetic qualities of luscious underwater-vistas of kelp forests, exuberant otherworldly colour schemes of coral formations and sea-life, and breathtaking scenery of the rugged Simonstown coastline, there is much for futurists to take home and apply to Futures Studies. My Octopus Teacher throws up various provocations and ideas in the viewer: Firstly, the viewer finds him/ herself asking who is teaching who, how is that things are learnt, and what are the outcomes of this kind of vicarious in-nature learning. Secondly, the Futurist may question the current nature and future possibilities of humankind’s relationships with other species and to what extent should we interfere with the instinctual behaviours of other species as witnessed by Foster who stands by as the pyjama shark attacks the octopus of his affections? We also find ourselves questioning the future roles of humans ‘inside of nature’ – to use Foster’s insightful phrase, in an increasingly compromised global environment, a wicked problem of such enormity that many young retreat from, in the ignorant solace of an ultra-digitized world.
36
HUMAN FUTURES
Film Review By David Lindsay-Wright
THE ELEVEN TOMORROWS & F3 - Futures Film Festival conceived by David Lindsay-Wright (PhD)
Film Review By David Lindsay-Wright TITLE: The Eleven Tomorrows FORMAT: Collaborative portmanteau flash
on the futures of this emerging world city. The film will explore how different
soothsaying in contrast to the emerging tech of big data, social media, virtual
fictions feature film (90 minutes)
locations and the peoples who live there,
worlds, AI, surveillance, robots, drones
GENRE: a place-based futures film
approach, understand and engage in the
and the other usual techno-utopia/
PRODUCTION: Brisbane Movie Makers +
future in different ways. Take Brisbane,
dystopia suspects; futures indifference;
TExT-TUBE FUTURES STUDIOS
with its convict history and its in-the-
conflicting perspectives on time and
EXECUTIVE PRODUCERS: David
shadow inferiority complex vis-à-vis
futures; sexuality and bodies; futures-
Lindsay-Wright & Peter Waterman
the grander iconic cities of Sydney and
oriented jobs – from professional
(President, BMM)
Melbourne, Brisbanites tend to think of
Futurists to micro-weather forecasters;
SCREENPLAY: 11 stories, 11 writers/directors
the future as something that happens
futures neuroses – fear, phobias; humour
elsewhere. But my sense as an outsider
in the future; transhumanism and
LAUNCH: March 1, 2022 – World Future Day
to this exceptionally multi-cultural city,
posthumanism; and potentially any other
TITLE: f3 - futures film festival at the
is that there are futures begging to
futures issue the writers-directors have a
Elizabeth Street Five-Star Cinema.
be released f rom the local story-pool
passion for storifying.
LAUNCH: March 1, 2023 – World Future Day
with The Eleven Tomorrows the vehicle
T
to facilitate the liberation of those
either stylistically or thematically include
suppressed stories of other futures.
MANIFESTO with its 13 personas all
HE Eleven Tomorrows, which will official launch on World Future
Originally, the concept for The Eleven
Films that inform The Eleven Tomorrows
played by Kate Blanchett, David Byrne’s
Tomorrows came from Jim Jarmusch’s
TRUE STORIES, Jim Jarmusch’s COFFEE
my personal frustration while writing
Coffee & Cigarettes with its conversation-
& CIGARETTES - featuring multiple
the scripts for multiple futures flash
driven vignettes, chiefly around music-
conversation-based stories predominantly
fictions and finding myself not being
related themes. The Eleven Tomorrows
with well-known American musicians,
able to travel to shoot the multi-location
flash fictions will comprise fiction, some
Jane Campion’s PASSIONLESS MOMENTS;
screenplays. This eventually led me to
nonfiction, experimental, and blurred
Fellini’s surrealist masterpiece ROMA;
the decision to shoot f rom where I was,
pieces. Uniquely, the 11 writer-directors
Robert Altman’s 1993 American comedy-
Brisbane Australia. I filtered out what I
will not know what the other stories are
drama SHORT CUTS, and Japanese director
considered the best of my 100+ futures
and will only get to see all 11 films once at
Akira Kurosawa’s magic-realist DREAMS
fictions and decided to adapt them to my
the premiere screening on March 1, 2023 -
(1990), to name but a few.
Brisbane base, making this city the story-
World Future Day.
Day, March 1, 2022, emerged from
The 11 flash fiction futures films that
Futures themes suggested to the
synergistically emerge from The Eleven
was at this point that I became a member
BMM writers and directors include the
Tomorrows project, will be premiered at
of an intriguing group of filmmakers –
futures of our universe and humanity’s
f3, a futures film festival, slated for March
Brisbane Movie Makers – and made a
role therein; global and localized
1, 2023. It is hoped that f3 will welcome
further decision suggesting to make The
environments; indigenous and multi-
an international audience that includes
Eleven Tomorrows a collaboration with 11
cultural futures; end of life and end
members of the World Futures Studies
members of the BMM as a portmanteau
of world stories; ancient versus 21st
Federation as well as other futures and
film featuring 11 writers-directors, 11 ‘takes’
century futures such as divination and
filmmaking communities around the world.
world for the 11 selected futures stories. It
HUMAN FUTURES
37
GAMES PEOPLE PLAY:
FARM SIMS FOR THE FUTURE By Katryna Starks Ph.D.
A
38
HUMAN FUTURES
S we look around our world, it’s
complex, multi-pronged solutions that
easy to see that there is much
can be enacted quickly on a worldwide
that needs to be done in order
scale. While policy makers can, and do,
to move into a healthy, sustainable
meet in world summits to explore the
future – or even a future at all. Our air
best solutions, there is a rogue factor
and water is polluted, our crops have
that is diff icult to control. That rogue
lost nutrients due to corporate farming
factor is us. Social ills require social
practices, our energy sources are taxed
solutions – which requires re-training
and in danger of depletion, and our
thoughts, attitudes and behaviors on an
inhumane treatment of animals and
international scale, using method that
people in the name of food and prof it
people will wholeheartedly participate in.
are producing results that threaten our
Video games offer unique opportunities
very existence. These issues require
to help people not only imagine and
navigate through these proposed solutions, but to gain enactive experience
more than just trash – it gets recycled. Recycling is a major theme in Women
game where picking up trach and recycling are a side activity, in No Place
in Science. Buildings in the game have
Like Home, cleaning up trash and
recycle bins outside, and the player can
recycling it is the main activity in the
that creates a medium for teaching
gain materials by searching through them.
game. The player wears an enormous
sustainability practices is the Farm
These materials can be used to create
vacuum cleaner that she uses to tackle
Simulator (called Farm Sim). The staples
helpful technology, such as hydroponic and
a world filled with trash. The trash heaps
of the Farm Sim genre are planting
aquaponic setups to make farming more
include recyclable material used for
and tending crops, raising poultry and
efficient, and even a drone that will water
crafting helpful machines and buildings
livestock, crafting tools and farm-related
the players fields of crops.
for cooking and storing, as well as seed
by virtually building them. One popular video game genre
Then, there is the game title and how
packets to grow a wide variety of crops.
collectibles. The social component in
it is implemented. The townspeople are
All major quests in the game involve
Farm Sims generally involves giving
not random characters. They represent
cleaning or healing the land. One quest
gifts and performing simple favors
notable science and education f igures
involves dismantling fox traps and
for the townspeople in order to grow
in the real world – many of whom are
repairing a fox den so the foxes can
f riendships, and possibly romance.
women. The game includes Heddy
live f reely. Another involves chopping
Lamarr, Temple Grandin, Maria
contaminated trees and growing new
promote ideas about sustainable
Montessori, and Wangari Maathai as
ones. Others include cleaning mounds
practices, two games directly address it:
well as Jonas Salk and Albert Einstein.
of pollution and recovering a water filter
The player is tasked with helping
to clean the river. The final quest involves
Women in Science
these characters, but the quests
finding the source of all of the pollution
(Luana Games, 2020)
involve helping them with concepts
and repairing it for good.
Women in Science starts the player
they became famous for. For instance,
architecture, and mining for gems and
While all of these activities can
These games provide an enjoyable
on a piece of land that they can farm,
delivering eggs to Jonas Salk so he
activity that provokes thought – and
but there is a catch. The land is f illed
can work on his vaccine. In Women
hopefully discussion and action – about
with trash and has to be cleaned up.
in Science, players can work with the
how we get our food, what we do with our
The player picks up errant chip bags,
brightest minds in history to help build a
trash, and how we can take responsibility
old newspapers, and discarded water
better world.
for maintaining the world we live in.
bottles that have been thrown around the property. In return, the player
No Place Like Home (Chicken
gets clean land to farm as well as raw
Launcher / Realm Distribution, 2020)
materials to craft with. The trash was
While Women in Science is a farming
Katryna Sparks is an Instructional Designer and Research Fellow at The Futures Forum, USA
HUMAN FUTURES
39
40
HUMAN FUTURES
PROGNOSIS
HUMAN FUTURES
41
CONVERSATIONS ON THE FUTURE WE WANT… UN AGENDA 2030 With Pamela Coke Hamilton & Kate Brown
By Claire A. Nelson
A
S we close out 2021, we find a lot of talk about whether or not the SDGs are still relevant. Whether or not COVID has delayed the possibilities or amplified the needs, we argue that both realities are true, and that we should persist as if on the road to the successful accomplishment of these goals is smooth and direct because our ‘thrival’ if not our ‘survival’ depends on us making the journey by any means possible. The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted in 2015 as the universal call to action to end poverty and hunger, protect the planet and ensure inclusion, peace and prosperity for all by 2030. However, without active individual involvement, Agenda 2030 cannot deliver wide scale impact. Understanding of the SDGs and actions towards achieving them should be integrated in the everyday lives of ordinary people. We need ways to reach people in ways that speak to them and offer content in a form that allows them to engage. We are talking about 17 Sustainable Development Goals, 169 targets, and assuring human thriving, not just survival in a shared future by 2030. These goals range f rom ending poverty, ending hunger, to gender, inclusion, climate action, justice – really an overarching complex of all the things that we as humanity need to do. And we know that these are really not seventeen separate goals. They are all cross cutting. There are no hard boundaries or borders. Of the many challenges that have made the airwaves in the latter half of the year, two issues that are top of mind for me are: the challenge facing the global supply chain; and the challenge of climate change, as evidenced by the angst of COP-26. In this issue, I hold conversations with two women leaders working on these matters at the global level. Pamela Coke Hamilton is a leader in the UN system, and Kate Brown is a leader in the NGO sector developing public-private partnerships in and by islands.
… with PAMELA COKE HAMILTON In this first conversation, we hear from Pamela
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HUMAN FUTURES
Coke-Hamilton, Executive Director of the International Trade Center, in Geneva. We will focus on the relevance of trade rules and regulations and the trade ecosystem to achieving global sustainability. NELSON: At present, there are a lot of disruptions in that sector in the face of COVID-19. Do you think the face of the shock of the COVID pandemic globally, that the current goals are still relevant, or when we have to tweak them in some way? COKE HAMILTON: The SDGs have never been as relevant as they are today. When they were launched in 2015, they were seen as ambitious signposts to lead us along the path of sustainable development. Today, they are no longer just ambitious or aspirational; they are essential. Let’s not forget that this compact for development is a shared one: developed countries, developing economies, the private sector and civil society have all adopted the SDGs as indicators to measure progress. Countries and companies have incorporated them into their balance sheets and strategic planning as tools to prioritize and to deliver. But the COVID pandemic presented us with some home truths. That as a global community we are truly interrelated and what affects one affects all; that we are interdependent and the only way to face a global threat is together; and that we must therefore now be even more intentional in how we use the spirit, advocacy and guidance of the SDGs to rebuild and repurpose. The SDGs are not perfect. There is a discretionary gap between aspiration and implementation that may be too wide, and the accountability f rameworks still require some tightening, but when you see what is happening today as a result of the pandemic – the widening gender parity gap; the increase in levels of childhood hunger and malnutrition; and loss of decent jobs – there remains no better globally agreed lodestar than the SDGs to point us in the right direction.
NELSON: As an engineer, I have always believed that engineers should be considered as part of the vanguard of the construction of the future, given our role in creating the built environment. Yet, that voice is often not present as leaders in the policy spaces that are driving the conversations about the SDGs. How does the voice of trade policy experts show up in the conversation about global sustainability? COKE HAMILTON: Well, you would be surprised how many development and policy experts started life as engineers! But I imagine what you are asking is why should trade policy be part of the global sustainability debate? It should be and it must be given that smart trade policy does hold the key to addressing some of the environmental issues on the table today. How we produce, how we consume and how we trade will impact levels of greenhouse gas emissions and hence climate change. There is no need to deny that. Physical goods have to be transported from point A to point B; even in the virtual world there is a growing carbon footprint in areas such as bitcoin. That is why trade policymakers need to be at the table to be part of the solution to ensure that trade and trade regulations facilitate the sharing of innovative green technology; support sustainable agriculture; call for the development and use of more energy eff icient fuels; and support the removal of regional barriers to trade to allow countries in Af rica, South-East Asia
and Latin America and the Caribbean to be able to trade more eff iciently with each other. One recent example is the ongoing discussions at the WTO – traditionally focused on trade negotiations – on plastics pollution; or on the impact of natural disasters on small islands; or on trade and climate change. By bringing these two worlds together you increase the chances of the trade community working for sustainability: I see it as a win-win. NELSON: The business of trade is integral to all life and livelihoods given that much of what most humans on the planet use, is made somewhere else and exported or imported from one place to another. From the pipes that carry our water to the wires that transmit power to the medicines and masks that keep us healthy. Thus trade is critical to our lives. How do we ensure that those working at the nexus of the policy and political spaces in the service of creating sustainable trade systems and futures have the capacity to use foresight as a design tool in planning for the future? COKE-HAMILTON: Foresight is often only as effective as the data being used to support that foresight. It may not be the most exciting response to this quite philosophical question but it’s a practical truth. Modelling, predicting and strategic recommendations must be based on the data and the evidence. At ITC, this is why we invest so much in global public goods and in various tools like SheTrades, Outlook, which can help trade
and environmental policymakers lead with evidence-based data and analysis. Foresight without data is guesswork. We must invest in data and data collection. We must help developing countries and committees better understand the paths to success. But another important component of building the collective intelligence central to strategic foresight is supporting interdisciplinary brainstorming. By bringing not just trade and environmental policy experts together but by also harnessing the knowledge of civil society, women’s business organisations, indigenous people, youth, at risk and marginalized communities, you provide space for inclusive and representational strategic foresight. This is what ITC does through its public-private partnership discussions, and I believe that the WFSF itself has an important role to play here in placing a spotlight on those who have a stake but don’t always have a voice on issues to do with trade policy, sustainability and the future of our planet. NELSON: Transportation systems necessary for trade are big polluters; how do you see your institution supporting the SDG 13 Climate Change? COKE-HAMILTON: Indeed, from an environmental footprint perspective, trade has been seen as part of the problem. Global trade contributes to natural resource use, pollution, and biodiversity loss. In fact, the emissions associated with the production and distribution of traded goods amount
HUMAN FUTURES
43
to 25% of total global emissions. At the same time, trade also builds a key part of to the solution to climate and environmental challenges. It enables access to environmental goods and technologies, such as solar panels, it drives green business practices by enabling companies to access sustainable markets, and it stimulates and spreads innovation. My participation in COP COP26 this year has a profound effect on me, because trade and small businesses were largely on the margins of the discourse. But small producers in developing countries are central to solving climate related challenges. They play a vital role in production of goods and services, but even more so because they offer 50% of jobs worldwide, constituting the social and economic fabric of the world’s economies. Putting MSMEs at the heart of the trade and environment agendas can contribute to better managing and reducing the effects of climate change and sprouting the new ideas and innovations that are necessary to meet the planetary crises. ITC supports small producers by helping them gain a competitive advantage by going green. We are working with them to adapt to the changing climate, adopt more circular and sustainable production processes and pursue nature positive models. Examples range f rom modern irrigation systems, to certif ied agricultural goods, to environmental advisory services. The changes they are making are leading to annual savings of water, energy, resources and lowering of carbon emissions. ITC is also working with the stakeholders around them: with policy makers and actors in the business ecosystem to ensure that the needs and priorities of developing countries are reflected in the evolution of the trade and environmental agendas. We work with international buyers to ensure that small producers can comply with emerging requirements in their supply
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HUMAN FUTURES
chains all of this to deliver the action needed to tackle one of the biggest crises of our time. NELSON: When you think about success in the year 2030, what do you see for then? What is your headline of choice, and how do you see us getting to that headline? COKE-HAMILTON: I know what I would love to see. That no child goes to sleep hungry. That access to food is a human right. That access to safety – including environmental safety – is a human right. Progress in bridging the equality gap, both in economic terms and from a rights-based perspective, has been rolled back as a result of the pandemic. We know this. We also know what needs to be done. Will we achieve all the SDG targets by 2030? Realistically I am not certain that we will. But will we be on the right track? I believe so. Again, it is about bridging that gap between aspiration and implementation. As for a headline: how about I borrow from my country man the late great Bob Marley: “Lively up Yourself”. Which in real speak essentially means equip yourself and commit yourself to action.
NELSON: What and where next does the ITC take the journey to Agenda 2030? COKE-HAMILTON: As part of the United Nations, Agenda 2030 remains our compass. Our recently completed Strategic Plan 2022-25 reaff irms that we will strive to support countries meet and exceed these goals in 2030 and beyond. And where success may not have been achieved by then, we recommit to doubling down to ensure we reach that finish line. We commit to ‘lively up’ ourselves. NELSON: That adage from Bob Marley is a good place for us to leave off. Thank you Pamela Coke-Hamilton for taking the time to share your thoughts.
… with KATE BROWN In this second conversation, we hear from Kate Brown, Executive Director of Global Islands Partnership (GLISPA) an NGO based in New Zealand. We will focus on the issue of climate change. NELSON: I want to begin by explaining exactly what is the Global Island Partnership? Which islands make up your group?
BROWN: GLISPA was founded in 20052006 by two Island leaders, the Presidents of Seychelles and Palau. They wanted a partnership that was focused not just on small island developing states, but something that was working with all islands regardless of political status. That includes American islands, European islands, etc. as places that face similar challenges. There are a lot of cultural differences. There are economic differences between islands. Even in the grouping of small island developing states (SIDS) there’s huge diversity. Yet these days we see a huge proliferation of efforts that are kind of threading the needle between a wide diversity of island entities. We at GLISPA work with a range of island jurisdictions including Hawaii, the British Virgin Islands, independent countries that are islands - it’s very diverse. NELSON: That’s really wise because, we’ve tended to divide our planet into different segments, politically, language, geographically, but as islands are at the foref ront of the climate change challenges, it is imperative that we have a global exchange among islands of the world. So let’ ask the question topmost in my mind. The future of the SDGs as you see it in the aftershock of the COVID pandemic. I read somewhere somebody said, that the global goals could not be achieved around the 2080’s. Given all that has happened since COVID, do you think that the SDGs as written are still relevant?
Or do we think we should be thinking about tweaking them in some way? BROWN: I think the SDGs are absolutely still relevant. We still need to end poverty. We still need to reduce inequality. We still need to address climate change. All of those seventeen goals. I think we may have to and can tweak the goals. However, the real key now is how we localize them. How is local action actually going to happen? The targets were set by the UN New York with all member states of the United Nations, but the implementation is happening locally. If we’re looking at islands, implementation is happening in each individual island. and they have to figure out for themselves what are the goals that they will focus most on within the broader context of the 17 SDGs? And what are the measures that they are going to hold themselves accountable for that are relevant to their local communities? You can have the most perfect global policy document in the world. But the real challenge is how you move to implementation. It’s not just about finances, although for many islands and small island developing states in particular, the finance question is a challenge. It is also about capacity. It’s about leadership. Political leadership is critical to making these things happen. There are some islands that are leading on how you address some of these issues. And then, there are some islands that are being left behind, and COVID has really exacerbated that problem. It’s made it worse. We see the impacts of the massive drop in tourism and exports especially fisheries
HUMAN FUTURES
45
resources coming into islands at the same time, which is creating all sorts of issues. Yet, we also see some examples of amazing self-resilience and reliance that we need to build on. We know this pandemic is going to go on for another couple of years. We’re not out of it yet – and we have been told that we’re in line to have one of these at least every 10 years. So I’m not really confident that we’re going to address this quickly. But there’s so much misinformation and just a clear lack of understanding not just of the global goals, but also of COVID. And we have to use this as a learning opportunity to get the wheels of our vehicles moving in the same direction. At the moment they’re all over the place think we’ve got like four wheels going in different directions. Speaking specifically about New Zealand, there’s a lot of fear about agenda 2030 as if the UN is coming to take something away f rom people, coming to control the dairy farms of New Zealand. There is a lot of misinformation. So, we need to do a better job of ensuring things are owned in communities, that there is a bottomup approach for local goal setting that interacts intersects and comes to the SDGs, not the other way around.
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HUMAN FUTURES
NELSON: As an engineer I’ve always been very concerned about islands and island policymaking about the lack of a voice for engineers in this process given their role in transportation, energy, water and wastewater, or solid waste management e,g. Are you seeing the engineering community in the islands coalesce around the SDG agenda? Or is this something that we could see some improvement around? BROWN: I think it’s happening to some extent. It is important that all sectors are given a voice to share their concerns or their input. About two years ago we launched a new initiative with Hawaii Green Growth local 2030 hub called the Local 2030 islands network. Everyone that wanted to be part of the discussion around developing, Hawaii’s goals, e.g.for water, food, energy, transportation, were at the table, and that included the engineers. This is an ongoing process and facility that’s decided, not by the government but by a public-private partnership that connects the government, the community stakeholders, and the private sector because it’s not just engineers that are often out of the loop, quite often the private sector is also
out of these SDG discussions. Hawaii has been having these conversations for 10 years -- bringing together all of the stakeholders, developing goals from the bottom up which include the views of engineers, the local farmers, the local communities that are impacted, everyone- to agree on what some of those goals might be and how they’ll be measured. This gives us the ability to track what progress is being made and to post corrections as we go. Hawaii has a very powerful model which is now being done in Guam. And in the GLISPA Local 2030 islands network what we’re really trying to do is help all islands go through this process. It is a process that makes sure that everyone’s engaged in the solutions and in the goal setting that happens. We believe that unless you do that, we’re not going to implement any of Agenda 2030 projects well. It will take the engineers and communications people and having all sorts of people around the table to enable us to see solutions that we might otherwise not see and to get to the innovations we need to move to implementation. In the case of Hawaii, the food security goals took four years of process facilitation to get to agreement because we needed agreement from the
agriculture community, the conservation community, the people in tourism, and all the different people coming together and agreeing on what the goals were together. But now we have an agreed-on approach of one strategy, rather than having a strategy on conservation, one on agriculture, another strategy on water, and so on, all competing with each other with different goals and markers and thus not being able to be efficiently and effectively implemented. NELSON: I want to believe that Hawaii’s expertise in future studies lay the groundwork for this success. The Future Studies program in Hawaii was run by someone that people in the futures community consider as a father of the movement -- Jim Dator. And as we think about this, before I turn to the issue of climate I want to address a question about the future. When I talk about smart futures? The M in SMART in the SMART Futures Framework is about meaningful metrics. I’ve been thinking about the need for a new metric that’s more beneficial to islands than the GDP or GNP which are tired, long-dead metrics. Are you seeing any movement towards new ideas about measuring the future we want? Meaning measures like gross national happiness or well-being? How is that conversation emerging across the islands GLISPA is working with? BROWN: We have seen some progress here in New Zealand which has a wellbeing metric. In fact, the underpinning of the budget discussion is about wellbeing. Vanuatu has also tried to develop a different national measure. When we started working with Hawaii about eight or nine years ago when they were trying to develop their green growth initiative and when the idea of islands sustainability came up they asked us, ‘What is the measure of islands sustainability?’ And we said to them ‘What do you think it is?’ Local 2030 is very focused on the creation of measures that are connected the SDGs, but it’s a bottom-up approach. So Hawaii Green Growth has all sorts of things in their goals -- including the type of Hawaii that people want to live in; the types of jobs that people need; the education
HUMAN FUTURES
47
that needs to happen to get the types of jobs to enable this kind of green Hawaii. There’s no point coming up with goals if you don’t measure them and you’re not accountable both to the people that you work with, but also to the people on the island for achieving them. I think what’s happened in Hawaii, and also what’s happening in Guam which also has advanced in designing a dashboard. The Marshall Islands and FSM or the Federated States of Micronesia are also going through this process. And for them, it’s a little bit more complicated because they have a lot of international agreements that they’re part of, especially with reference to climate. So, goal setting is partly a coherence building harmonization process. We have just been lucky enough to get support from the US government to tap into the technical support of US agencies in an island to island peer approach -learning from the way that GLISPA and Local 2030 works – where islands are seen as leaders on many of these things, and
48
HUMAN FUTURES
not as incapable. We want to see how we can enable Island peers to encourage each other and to share with each other how to do some of these things. And we actually have examples of islands doing it. NELSON: A side question. Lets say, a community wanted to do something but politically they couldn’t get the whole island to move. Have you had experiences where you use a sub-national approach to pilot a dashboard just to get them exposed to this idea of thinking about what’s the future they want to live in? Has that happened at all? BROWN: Well, we operate with the idea of island economies, not of island states or island territories. So its islands as economies and that can be at all different scales. Probably the furthest along with this is actually an island in Hawaii because you know, Hawaii is actually five main islands. There’s an island called the Big Island which is the island of Hawaii that is trying to do that
at its own island level, not at the whole of the state of Hawaii level. The first thing the new mayor did when he came in was run a two or three-day Hawaii Island sustainability conference. This effort enabled them to address the questions ‘How do I own this?’ ‘What does this look like on my local Island?’ Not from the level of the Governor but at the sub-national at the sub-state Mayor level because that’s where lots of this stuff needs to happen. So we are seeing the effort to develop their local goals that are more locally relevant. NELSON: Some have said COP-26 was just a PR gimmick. But GLISPA is among the NGOs working to ensure these global confabs advance the change agenda. Has GLISPS been able to strengthen the voices of islands because you’re working with islands globally – from SIDS to islands in Europe and the USA and Canada? Do you see us being able to forge new kinds of partnership that can accelerate past the hesitation that
is stymieing investment in research and development of innovations that can address the zero carbon agenda and get us off our fatty oil diet.
wondering if we’re doing a good enough job of asking questions about what will happen in the future. e.g. When 500,000 people have to migrate, who is going to take these people? Are we doing a good enough job of painting the worst-case scenarios?
BROWN: To be honest I also am frustrated at the lack of speed of things. But to the question ‘Do the UN Member States coming together achieve anything?’ My answer is ‘Yes, it does’. Because if we didn’t have these places of dialogue, and in some senses, the political accountability to each other, I think we’d be in a much worse place than we are now. The dialogue is really critical. Yes, I would like to accelerate action. There are so many things I’m frustrated about. But the playing field is very uneven. In our (Maori) culture, we are focused on being good ancestors. So as that person, I am deeply worried about the future and try very hard to be part of the solution. So looking at the issue of partnerships, I think that via local 2030 where we’re looking at Island economies and subnational islands who can influence their whole nation to change. That’s what we’re seeing very much with Hawaii with Guam with the US islands at the moment or even Ireland which is not a subnational island but as part of this network is trying also to look for the solutions we start bringing all of these people together I think that we can actually be quite transformative in the way that convening things like the Climate and Clean Air Coalition has done. So we start to move not just be focused on the climate space, but on the whole island space and in a way that can transform the way that others think about these things. Another network that we support which is the climate strong islands network has just developed. This network of US Islands includes various sub-national islands, for example, islands off Maine, or islands off Alaska, Hawaii or Puerto Rico, that have come together around the idea that the island’s situation is different than the mainland, that they need different solutions. Global transformation is needed, and people aren’t helpless nor hopeless. The funding that we have from the US government is very much in the climate resilience space because it’s that idea of building this type of resilience and its connection to sustainable development. My question
BROWN: I feel like the military is very onto that issue. But I don’t think stopping large refugee populations has ever been a motivating factor. I mean, there are large refugee populations now without climate challenges, living in areas all over the world, and particularly in some very unstable places, there’s famine. There are all sorts of things going on. We don’t seem to take that all that seriously. I’m really not convinced that will be for enough to motivate most countries to change what they’re doing. NELSON: So basically, it is better to use the carrot approach as there’s no stick to paint a goodwill Agenda for the Future. So let us say we are creating an island futures movement for Agenda 2030. As we close out, I like to leave an optimistic note. So, when you think about success for Agenda 2030 – imagine we are at the UN SDG review 2030 in New York, What is your headline of choice? We’re here at the GLISPA Futures Summit. What successes are we talking about?
always with these things is about the sum of the parts adding up to a whole. advance goals. One of our biggest challenges is how we enable people to work together in a way that actually advances things. That’s a challenge for the climate Change community as well. But we can look to the future and look at what techniques are available now to do some kind of decisions and network analysis or a bit of data crunching on who is doing what. I do think we have enough software and universities that can create partnerships to keep track of these kinds of challenges. NELSON: We have creative decision support and mapping exercises that can help us to rationalize our resources. What is the risk of not acting? Because I’m
BROWN: In 2030, we see 40 Island economies, and I don’t mean islands, but Island economies, that have been able to report on improvements on addressing the goals that they set for themselves on the SDGs. I know that’s a difficult headline. So, we’d need to restate it more clearly but what I am saying is that we would have gotten to the point where you’re starting to tip the normalization, because it is at the point where it’s interesting and people think it is really cool. We need a network analysis for what we’re doing as a network of networks is starting a community attractor on networks and partnerships, and how you track progress, and how we do better at working together. That is why I believe in the possibility of our success. NELSON: Thank you Kate Brown for signalling positive changes for and from the islands we love.
HUMAN FUTURES
49
UNITED NATIONS IS INCREASING ITS FORESIGHT CAPACITY By Jerome C. Glenn CEO, The Millennium Project
T
HE United Nations Secretary-
of the Chilean Node of The Millennium
and academic leaders around the world
General Antonio Guterres’s
Project proposed that an open letter
endorsed the letter, calling for a new UN
report Our Common Agenda
be sent to the UN Secretary General
Office of Strategic Threats to coordinate
https://www.un.org/en/content/
suggesting a feasibility study to be
global research on long-range strategic
common-agenda-report/ is the
conducted by the UN Secretariat on the
or existential threats to humanity, and to
most important UN document for
establishment of such a UN Off ice. The
their prevention.
implementing global futures research
letter was circulated among colleagues
and foresight as a function of the UN
of The Millennium Project, the World
f rom The Millennium Project with the
ever produced.
Futures Studies Federation, and the
World Futures Studies Federation and
September 2, 2021 the open letter
Association of Professional Futurists.
the Association of Professional Futurists
Project along with the World Futures
Press releases were issued2, listservs
including 200+ signatories and a
Studies Federation, the Association of
discussed the idea, and many futurists
background memo was delivered to UN
Professional Futurists, and Humanity+
referred to the letter in speeches and
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
conduced World Future Day: the 24-
correspondence.
March 1, 2021 The Millennium
hour around-the-world no agenda
By August 14, 2021 more than 200
Subsequently, when Our Common Agenda report was presented by the
conversation on the future. Among the
leaders in government, business,
Secretary-General to the UN General
many suggestions and insights shared
academia, and futurists including internet
Assembly, we sent an addendum to the
that day was the idea of creating a UN
pioneer Vint Cerf, and Nobel Prize
open letter explaining how the proposed
Office on Strategic or Existential Threats 1.
Laureate Oscar Arias and other business,
UN Office on Strategic or Existential
Ambassador Héctor Casanueva, Chair
political, technological, environmental,
Threats fits into and supports the report:
50
HUMAN FUTURES
STATEMENT OF SUPPORT FOR “OUR COMMON AGENDA” From The Millennium Project, World Futures Studies Federation, and the Association of Professional Futures, as addendum to our open letter to the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres electronically delivered September 2, 2021 and endorsed by 202 leaders around the world. 1. We celebrate the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres report on “Our Common Agenda”, delivered this month to the 76º General Assembly. This UN grand strategy calls for many excellent improvements including a Futures Lab, Summit on the Future, and better preparation to prevent and respond to major global risks. 2. This new emphases on global strategic foresight for humanity is unique in the history of the United Nations and world. 3. We fully agree with the proposal of the Secretary-General that It will be important for the United Nations to issue a Strategic Foresight and Global Risk Report on a regular basis, and propose an Emergency Platform, to be convened in response to complex global crises. 4. We consider that the proposal of 202 leaders f rom around the world that we presented a few days ago to the Secretary General, calling for a new UN Office to coordinate global research to prevent human extinction, corresponds precisely to the spirit and context of the Report “Our Common Agenda.” 5. Although the proposed UN Office is to identify threats to the extinction of humanity and how to prevent them, The Millennium Project keeps track of where we are winning (education, longevity, poverty reduction, etc.) and losing (environment, organized crime, concentration of wealth, social unrest and terrorism, etc.). Our trend analysis shows humanity is winning more that losing, but where are losing is very serious, and one area needing improved research are the threats to long-range human survival. 6. We declare ourselves willing to collaborate in its implementation, making available our entire collection of studies and research over the past 26 years, and the capacity of The Millennium Project, a transdisciplinary foresight think tank that has developed a global network of 68 Nodes (groups of future-oriented individuals and institutions) around the world that have involved over 4,500 experts in its research and follow-up actions, who collaborate daily in future studies for the anticipation and prevention of strategic threats to humanity. It mobilizes its decentralized resources to promote foresight concepts and methods around the world. 7. Specifically, The Millennium Project can contribute to these initiatives and strategic foresight (point 6) in Commitment 8 of the Common Agenda. 8. We propose that the UN Secretariat conducts a feasibility study of the idea of a small office to collect, coordinate, and support research on the threats to human extinction and prevention strategies, and address questions of where in the potential changes in the UN system this might fit. 9. We intend to submit a brief on these threats to your office in the next few days:
n
Weakening of the Earth’s magnetic shield that protects us f rom deadly solar radiation
n
Massive discharges of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) f rom de-oxygenated oceans, caused by advanced global warming
n
Malicious nanotechnology (including the “gray goo” problem)
n
Loss of control over future forms of artificial intelligence
n
A single individual acting alone, who could one day create and deploy a weapon of mass destruction (most likely f rom synthetic biology)
n
Nuclear war escalation
n
Uncontrollable, more-severe pandemics
n
A particle accelerator accident
n
Solar gamma-ray bursts
n
An asteroid collision
10. International cooperation on such research is crucial, especially on how to address these threats. We plan to discuss the proposed UN Office of Strategic Threats around the world through our next State of the Future report (20th edition) that is translated into several languages and used as a basis for many conferences, workshops, university courses, training programs, and make their results available to the General Secretariat, to contribute to the objectives of “Our Common Agenda.”
Sincerely,
HUMAN FUTURES
51
A brief on ten examples of strategic or existential threats was also delivered to
in our future could be desperate attempts
will continue to become more powerful,
at geoengineering that go astray.
decentralized, and easier to use11, so
the UN Secretary-General:
strategies to prevent misuses should Weakening of the Earth’s
Loss of control over future forms of artif icial intelligence
f rom deadly solar radiation
If the initial conditions of Artificial
increase—globally—as well.
magnetic shield that protects us The Earth’s magnetic fields weaken
Nuclear war escalation Although nuclear war was prevented
General Intelligence (AGI) are not “right,”
as the magnetic poles reverse. The last
between the USSR and the USA, the
it could evolve into the kind of Artificial
reversal was 42 million years ago8, and
number of countries with nuclear
Super Intelligence (ASI) that Stephen
scientists predict the Earth is due for
weapons has grown to nine: United
another one. The process of reversal can
States, Russia, France, China, the
have warned could threaten the
take hundreds of years, during which time
United Kingdom, Pakistan, India,
future of humanity. Artif icial Narrow
humanity and all life will be vulnerable to
Israel, and North Korea. Since there
Intelligence (ANI) is the kind of AI we
deadly radiation . worldwide.
are political tensions among several of
Hawking , Elon Musk , and Bill Gates 3
4
5
9
these the possibility of war is not zero.
have today: each software application has a single specif ic purpose. AGI is
Malicious nanotechnology (including the “gray goo” problem)
similar to human capacity in novel problem-solving whose goals are set by
There are two approaches to
In addition to deadly radiation, Carl Sagan 12 and other scientists explained that f irestorms created by the nuclear
humans. ASI would be like AGI, except
nanotechnology: big machines, making
explosions would f ill the atmosphere
that it may emerge f rom AGI and sets
nanotech that we have today, and
with suff icient smoke, soot, and dust
its own goals, independent of human
atomically precise manufacturing and
circling the globe interrupt plant
awareness or understanding. It may
self-assembly that we do not have yet.
photosynthesis stopping food supply.
take ten to twenty years to create AGI.
Theoretically, the second version could
Since it may take that much time to
take CO2 f rom the air, strip out the
create a global governance system to
oxygen, and make massive carbon nano-
make sure the initial conditions are
tech structures, with nothing to stop it.
right, then we should begin working
This uncontrolled self-assembly is referred
advances and proliferates, the ability to
to create such global governance now.
to as the gray goo problem .
create (by accident or design) immune
6
10
pandemics As synthetic biological research
pathogens that continually mutate
Intense pressures of competition among corporations and states for advanced AI
New Uncontrollable, more-severe
A single individual acting alone,
increases the possibility, although remote,
could lead to inadequate initial conditions
could one day create and deploy a
of human extinction13. Human-caused
without such global governance.
weapon of mass destruction (most
environmental changes could also lead
likely f rom synthetic biology)
to pathogens that could also lead to our
Massive discharges of hydrogen sulf ide (H 2 S) f rom de-oxygenated
Synthetic biology that mixes genetic
extinction. While no single pandemic
material f rom different species could
is likely to extinguish humanity, they
oceans, caused by advanced
make a new kind of virus living outside
may do so in combination with other
global warming
the body for deployment around the
catastrophic threats.
world, with a long incubation period.
Global warming is beginning to change ocean currents. If this trend
National technical means can identify
Particle accelerator accident
continues, water conveyors that bring
and disrupt such actions, but probably
Some scientists consider it possible
oxygen to the bottom of the ocean will
not all. Improving applications of
that future participle accelerator
stop. Micro-organisms that proliferate
cognitive science and child development
experiments could possibly 14 destroy the
without oxygen emit hydrogen sulfide
psychology could reduce such insane
Earth and even open a blackhole15 or
(H2S – a deadly gas) when they die. This,
people, but not all. Families and
create a phase transition which could tear
plus ozone depletion, may have killed 97%
communities can also help reduce the
the fabric of space. Cold Spring Harbor
of life during the Permian extinction . Also
number of such mass killers. Technologies
Laboratory altered is research program
7
NOTES: https://www.millennium-project.org/proposed-un-office-of-strategic-threats/ https://www.newswire.com/news/200-leaders-call-for-new-un-office-tocoordinate-global-research-to-21488637?_ga=2.111417604.1077599181.1638127617862998955.1638127617 3 https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/06/stephen-hawking-ai-could-be-worst-event-in1
2
52
civilization.html https://techcrunch.com/2020/02/18/elon-musk-says-all-advanced-ai-developmentshould-be-regulated-including-at-tesla/ 5 https://www.bbc.com/news/31047780 6 https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/10/15/1010461/artificial-generalintelligence-robots-ai-agi-deepmind-google-openai/ 7 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921818112001452 4
HUMAN FUTURES
when they found an extremely unlikely
the foresight. The dominant species that
there is an ethical imperative to act in a
chance of opening a blackhole, but they
replaces us in post-apocalyptic Earth
manner compatible with the dignity of
determined the possibility was not zero.
just might wonder, as they gaze upon
human life, which our global governance
our mounted skeletons in their natural
systems must follow, echoing the
Gamma-ray bursts
history museums, why large headed
precautionary principle in international
When two stars collide16, a gamma-
Homo sapiens fared no better than the
environmental law and other areas. The
proverbially pea-brained dinosaurs.”
cost of being prepared for serious risks
ray burst originating thousands of light years away, could sufficiently damage the protective ozone layer to kill life on Earth.
-- Neil deGrasse Tyson (f rom Lifeboat
Hence, the thrust of the proposed UN
According to Dr. Adrian Melott of the Department of Physics and Astronomy at
pales in comparison with the human and f inancial costs if we fail.”
Foundation) SG Antonio Guterres responded by
Off ice of Strategic Treats is in the UN
the University of Kansas, “We don’t know
asking that I meet with Ayaka Suzuki,
report. The question is how it and other
exactly when one came, but we’re rather
Director of the Strategic Planning and
foresight elements can be implemented.
sure it did17 come—and left its mark.” The
Monitoring Unit in the Executive Office of
Asking our Minister of Foreign Affairs
WR 104 star system could cause such
the Secretary-General (EOSG) and the staff
to have their Permanent Representative
a gamma-ray burst in the future. The
responsible for implementing the Common
to the UN endorse the report in the UN
Sun could also emit high-energy flares,
Agenda. A series of meetings have
General Assembly could help prevent
damaging our ozone layer.
occurred to date focusing on how to the
this report f rom being one more left
help implementation of the six foresight
on the shelf to gather dust. We have
elements of the Common Agenda:
never had a UNSG so aware of the role of
An asteroid collision
1. UN Summit on the Future
foresight and willing to put it out f ront
humanity missed the Earth by six hours
2. Futures Lab
in UN reform.
on March 23, 1989. If it would have hit
3. High-level Advisory Board led by
An asteroid large enough to end
the Earth, the impact would have been the equivalent of a thousand of our most powerful nuclear bombs. NASA is identifying and tracking such threats now. Although some have proposed attacking an asteroid with an explosive device, that could result in multiple hits on the Earth.
former Heads of State and/or Government
Futurists should make a major effort to support this so that it is not one
4. Special Envoy for Future Generations
more opportunity that slips through
5. Trusteeship Council as a multi-
our f ingers. The Millennium Project
stakeholder foresight body 6. Strategic Foresight and Global Risk Report every five years Section B of the report, addressing
will include the proposed UN Off ice on Strategic and Our Common Agenda in its next State of the Future (20th edition) report. This is translated into
Instead, research to find effective ways to
Major Risks of Our Common Agenda item
several languages and used as a basis
change its course may prove safer.
98 says:
for many conferences, workshops,
“An effort is warranted to better define
university courses, training programs
and identify the extreme, catastrophic
around the world. In the meantime,
from a catastrophic collision…Not
and existential risks that we face. We
please read UN’s Our Common Agenda
because we lacked the brain power to
cannot, however, wait for an agreement
and share your views with your Ministry of
protect ourselves but because we lacked
on definitions before we act. Indeed,
Foreign Affairs.
“If humans one day become extinct
8 https://www.sciencenews.org/article/earth-magnetic-field-reversal-massextinctions-environment-crisis 9 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1342937X16000319 10 https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0957-4484/15/8/001 11 https://books.google.com/ 12 https://www.atomicarchive.com/science/effects/nuclear-winter. 13 https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210419/Humans-versus-viruses-Can-we-
avoid-extinction-in-near-future. https://www.sciencealert.com/earth-could-be-crushed-to-the-size-of-a-soccerfield-by-particle-accelerator-experiments-says-astronomer 15 https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691180441/on-the-future 16 https://www.space.com/13221-space-collisions-earth-extinctions-gamma-ray-bursts. html 17 https://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/starsgalaxies/gammaray_extinction.html 14
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Appendix: Open letter proposal the UN Secretary-General to create a United Nations Office on Strategic Threats September, 2021 Secretary-General Antonio Guterres United Nations Dear Mr. Secretary-General: Long-range strategic threats to the survival of humanity are well-documented, ranging f rom the potential of advanced artificial intelligence growing beyond human control to weakening magnetic fields that protect life on Earth. Although the United Nations includes agencies that are addressing many of the problems facing humanity today, there is no central office to identify, monitor, anticipate, and coordinate research on long-term strategic threats to humanity. A UN Office on Strategic Threats, which would centralize and coordinate information and prospective studies on a global scale, could serve international agencies, multilateral organizations, nation-states, the private sector, academia, and humanity in general. We think that the Office could be created without putting pressure on the budget of the organization, reallocating resources and coordinating its work with universities and research centers around the world. This idea was raised and discussed in detail during World Future Day, March 1, 2021, a 24-hour conversation of nearly a thousand experts from 65 countries, organized by several international associations of futurists and think tanks to discuss strategies for improving the global future. The signatories of this open letter – academics, diplomats, scientists, and experts in foresight and strategy from different countries and sectors – ask Your Excellency to welcome and facilitate the adoption of a UN General Assembly Resolution at this September’s General Assembly that would give the General Secretariat the mandate to conduct a feasibility study on establishing a UN Office on Strategic Threats. Sincerely, The Millennium Project, World Futures Studies Federation, and Association of Professional Futurists List of Signatories endorsing this recommendation is available at: https://www.millennium-project.org/5672-2/
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TECHNICAL NOTES
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THE STRENGTH OF CO-CREATION By Thomas Kramer
Hooked on Futures
to follow two Futures School programs
Co-creating on the theme of human
I think it was 2015 in Berlin when
and get certif ied as a strategic foresight
potential, opening your mind up to
Futurism struck me f irst. I was in a
practitioner. From being mainly active
new possibilities and actually creating
workshop hosted by Tanja Schindler and
in the Netherlands in my former job as
scenarios on how the Future can
Nicola Baker Rosa. Trend cards, futures
an educational developer and advisor
possibly look like.
wheels and some other methodologies
I suddenly met all those new people
with which you could peek into the
f rom all over the globe. Expanding
Learning rebellion
future, not waiting for it to happen but
my network and view on things. The
The Future school network wasn’t
co-creating it together. Futurism had
main element of the programs which
the only ‘community in which I got
me in its grip and last year I decided
I enjoyed very much was co-creation.
involved in. There was also the learning
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“
“Co-creation is about engaging people to create more value together. It involves redesigning interactions through the experiences of individuals. Through co-creation, organizations can unleash the creative energy of people — especially employees and internal stakeholders, but also customers, suppliers, and related external stakeholders and communities — to create mutual value. Ramaswamy and Gouillart, 2010”
”
rebellion. A LinkedIn community set up by
Futures of Talent
Mari-Luz Gracia a dutch learning experience
Being in these different co-creation
designer with Spanish roots. Learning
processes as an active participant made me
Rebellion is made up of round peg learning
enthusiastic. Why not lead a project myself?
rebels who are activating with compassion
Tanja Schindler who’s name you heard
learning innovation while facing the square
before had in the meantime set up Futures
traditional learning holes. COVID had hit
Space together with Graciela Guadarama
and the traditional learning structures
Baena. Futures Space is an international
collapsed. Overnight the entire school
community made of professionals, some
system moved f rom physical to online
experienced, others curious, all passionate
education. This among other things made
about Futures and Foresight. They host
clear that the educational system had to
events, bring people together and co-create
change. Mari-Luz Garcia together with Jose-
futures. I have been given the opportunity
Angel Dominguez came up with the idea
to set up an open space.
of writing a book in co-creation with the
My passion is creating space for human
Learning Rebellion community. A playbook
growth. Building circumstances in which
in which learning rebels could give their
people can grow as individuals, develop
view, tips and hints on how to change
themselves and make use of their talents.
education for the better. To let talent
Learning and developing go past the
not go to waste and create new ways of
educational system. We are constantly
navigating the futures of society and work. I
learning in every situation. The world is
got involved in the whole co-creation process,
changing at an ever-faster pace. Old systems
writing, reviewing, and leading teams. In a
have to be broken down and new systems
few months the book ‘Learning Rebellion in
emerge. So, I will be launching the Futures of
Times of Stillness’ was written and published
Talent Open Space! A Space where we co-
with 40+ people f rom all over the world.
create the Futures of Talent.
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MUSICAL FUTURES: SINGING FUTURES INTO BEING By Marguerite Coetzee
I
F the future were a song, what song would it be? Or rather,
Below is an excerpt from those findings:
if the future were like a song, what would it sound like? Consider, for a moment, how different the future would seem if we were to think of the future as something that is
The Johnny and Sipho duo of the 1970s was born in a time of police control, border wars, and a racially divided nation. They
creatively composed and collectively heard, but individually
sang in small, private venues; their collaboration against the
decoded and intelligently entangled with meaning; adaptable
law. They then formed the multi-racial band, Juluka, in the 1980s
and enigmatic, imaginative and improvisational, harmonious
with their music preserving the traditional Maskandi genre
and enduring. Music - like the future - can be personal,
and giving a voice to a largely silenced population, and their
practical, and even political. To illustrate this, I experimented
shows being raided by police. Sipho then left the band to return
(Coetzee, 2019) at the intersection of creativity and Futures
to a life of farming, and Johnny went on to create the cross-
Studies to see what could emerge. Focusing on South Af rican
over band, Savuka, in the 1990s, which seemed to mirror the
musician and anthropologist, Johnny Clegg, I explored the
transition in South Africa; the country crossing over into a new
nodes and networks of his musical career; his lyrical stories,
era and starting to see more interaction between its previously
ethnographic performances, and prophetic songs.
segregated parts. After the death of a band member in political
Familiar to many futurists is the Sigmoid Curve (or the
violence – during this time of transition – Savuka disbanded.
S-Curve); a ‘curve of life’. By mapping Clegg’s musical
Johnny Clegg then took on a solo career in the 2000s, his music
career onto this curve, it exposed the contextual conditions
becoming more multifaceted as if to incorporate the growing
that potentially contributed to his sustained success and
trend of globalisation. He incorporated styles from around the
continuous transformation as an artist; changing with
world – Hindi, French, Celtic, and others. He sang of the influence
and adapting to the times to meet new needs, expressing
of technology, of uncertain futures, of loss of tradition, and other
new experiences and ideas, and dreaming new futures and
topics that were relevant during this time of national growth,
possibilities (Coetzee, 2019, p. 4-5).
followed by gradual decline (Coetze, 2019, p. 5).
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presented in the media. The language we use to describe the future tends to be mechanical, technical or digital. In this sense, the future becomes an almost contained entity that we think we can predict, control, replace, replicate, and define. The second layer - the systems - contextualises the problem and explores the driving forces that contribute to its existence. The way we behave in the present moment is largely influenced by our relationship with the future. While the future does not exist, it can be anticipated and imagined in the present (Miller, 2018, p. 58-59). The third layer - the worldviews - analyses why we think about a problem in a particular way or view it from a certain perspective. We often think of the future as a time and place beyond the here and now. Many of us assume that we inherit a past and that the future does not belong to us, or at least it is not our responsibility. The fourth layer - the archetypes - grounds what we believe, how we come to believe, and why we believe in deep-rooted myths and metaphors. Our inherent, instinctive or intuitive beliefs about the future can be embedded in philosophical interpretations of who we are as human beings. Now let us ref rame our view of the future by using music as a method for talking about, thinking through, engaging with, and believing in the future. The future is a song, composed of individual interacting sounds that produce a collective, harmonious whole. Music exists in the semiosphere; a language with which we can code, decode, and re-encode meaning into messages. It allows us to communicate or express futures that do not exist in words, but in ideas and intuition. Participants collaborate as facilitators and creative agents of change Following Clegg’s death in the late 2010s, his original music partner, Sipho Mchunu, has since returned to a musical career with the release of a solo album, and Clegg’s incomplete
who contribute to musical futures, as well as audiences who interpret, absorb, and express these futures in their own ways. It is through storytelling that we are able to invent and
memoirs have been published as an autobiography of his early
reinvent dialogues, social constructs, and identities. Musicians,
years. Clegg’s sons are both in creative fields and numerous
as enablers of emergence, are storytellers that craft memories,
local artists uphold Clegg’s lyrical legacy. The S-curve continues.
narratives, and scenarios for us to make sense of ourselves, our
Another approach popular amongst futurists is Causal
world, and our place in it. Music plays a role in the “imagination
Layered Analysis. It is usually used when unpacking the
and achievement of f reedom” (Coplan, 1985, p.2); of initiating,
interacting forces that generate a particular future, followed by
guiding, and embodying a process of change, reflection, and
creatively, actively and systematically transforming that future.
transformation.
The very first layer at the top - the litany - identifies the obvious problem as discussed in everyday conversation and
What does your future sound like?
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WFSF HAPPENINGS
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WFSF ACCREDITATION SERVICES LAUNCHED! By Luke van der Laan
F
UTURES Studies is pragmatic. It only makes when
Federation seeks to embrace humanity’s diverse perspectives
seen in relation to informing the exercising of human
and ways of expressing Futures Studies. The Accreditation
agency. Futures Studies explores possibilities and
Services’ primary focus is to promote the legitimacy and quality
opens up pathways to achieve better futures. It finds
of Futures Studies in having wide reaching impact both in its
its pragmatic expression in research (futures research) and the
academic endeavour and ultimately, the practice of foresight
practice of foresight. It knows no boundaries in its aspirations
and through developing systemic anticipation.
of shaping individual lives, communities, the environments within which communities exist and ultimately the world, for the better of humanity.
Accreditation – how? The dual purpose of the WFSF Accreditation Services is
Futures Studies does not make sense if it does not embrace
to function as an accessible service to the members of the
diversity of opinion of all individuals, communities, cultures and
Federation in a) supporting foresight programs in aspiring
the interests that they represent. It is through this diversity of
to achieve high levels of quality education and b) assuring,
opinion that Futures Studies realises its purpose of creating visions
promoting, and advocating toward enhancing the legitimacy
of the mind in becoming the object of expressing human will (de
of the f ield. This will be achieved by providing global stage
Jouvenal). As such, it exerts itself as a necessary pre-condition for
and recognition of foresight programmes.
informed and wise decision making in policy, design, strategy and
The Federation is building a system of support and a
the many other forms of decision making that exist. It is through
learning community that is participatory, empathetic and
this open and participatory expression of human values and
creative. Regional communities of practice, multilingual points
aspirations that Futures Studies makes sense.
of contact, sharing good practice, debating current concerns, providing training opportunities, providing support pathways for
Accreditation – why?
aspiring foresight programs, are just some of the ways the WFSF
As an intellectual domain of endeavour, Futures Studies
Accreditation Services will seek to help its members in achieving
must be seen as a legitimate and orderly field of enquiry – yet
the aspirations for our field.
unrestrained in its freedom to re-imagine the human condition. If Futures Studies fails to be recognised as a legitimate and valuable
In particular the Accreditation Services prioritises:
source of enquiry, it loses ground and gets consigned to being a
n Emphasising the intellectual and professional value of
fringe activity with limited meaning. It loses its power to influence. With the establishment of the WFSF Accreditation Services, the
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foresight programmes. n Encouraging innovation and experimentation, growth and
quality in foresight education. n Assuring the quality of foresight programme(s). n Being flexible and useful to a broad range of
missions in departments, schools, colleges and universities, which operate under diverse legislative frameworks. n Providing opportunities for self-reflection
and sharing in multilingual and diverse learning communities. n Being a transparent and evidence-based
programme improvement service.
Accreditation – process? In addition to establishing numerous learning communities, forums for sharing and training, the WFSF Accreditation Services under the guidance of the Programme Accreditation Council (PAC) will offer formal accreditation of foresight education. This will follow a three-step process and include internationally benchmarked set of standards but be primarily interactive in nature. The WFSF PAC is at your service! If you are considering being a part of this exciting new initiative or thinking about applying for accreditation, please do not hesitate to contact us at accreditation@wfsf.org Dr Luke van der Laan (Chair, Programme Accreditation Council)
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WHY FUTURES ALWAYS ALREADY HAS TO BE OPEN.
SOME REFLECTIONS ABOUT THE WFSF BERLIN CONFERENCE, OCT 26TH-29TH 2021
T
HE 24th WFSF World Conference was a tremendous success. In the middle of a pandemic, facing severe uncertainties regarding travel restrictions, limited financial situations for
a lot of our members and professional reorientations by many, we aimed at a physical event with an additional online section. High risk? Yes! But, due to a great team preparing the event, we succeeded in gathering more than 180 people in person and a considerable number of attendees for the online program. In addition the WFSF was made known by a long range of possible futures partners and futures interested actor, not only within Germany, but World Wide. Of course, the participation was limited due to the pandemic situation, which above all but this as a background we should be satisfied with the in-person attendance. Personally, I participated in several sessions and had a long range of bilateral meeting with people during the event. And I was definitely not the only one. The Conference fulfilled its mission as being a meeting place for futurists and futures interested people, both members and non-members. As I started in this field for more than 25 years ago – and I know that many of you can point at more than 50 years involvement in the professional futures field – one of the strongest impressions was the outstanding sympathetic, creative and intelligent habitus all people I met represented. As a former boss of mine said – “the people in this field, Erik, are all that sympathetic and inviting”. And I agree – they (you) definitely are. This field is a free arena with people that not only want change, but also to a high degree open up things, angle things differently than usual and invite you into
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journeys that you did not know about and definitely did not
of Prince Mohammad Bin Fahd University, Dr. Jin Canrong,
understand. Here we can move beyond current conflict lines
and President of the Chinese Society for Future Studies (CSFS).
– independently whether they are geopolitical ones, conflicts
We had presentations f rom the President of Nauru, President
between states, between world regions, between value systems
Lionel Rouwen Aingimea, and the ex-President of Seychelles,
or even between professional approaches. In this field we are
James Michel, as well as author Bayo Amokolafe and the world
free to express difficult topics without “being arrested for it”, we
renowned digital artist, Stanza. In addition we also had several
may be political incorrect in a the best meaning of the term, and
interactive sessions with a long range of topics.
we just experiment with ideas, images and perspectives to see
The conference theme - The Openness of futures - reflected
what the futures may or could bring, not what it will be or what
the broad dimensions and dynamics of futures studies7-
we want it to be. All these kind of undertakings do something to
research and described an arena in which we explore the
you – obviously – something wonderful and important.
expansiveness of our imagination – an open universe prepared
That’s some of the reasons why we titled the conference
to deal with the grand challenges of our time, beautifully
“The Openness of Futures”. The Openness of futures reflects the
articulated as desirable visions of sustainable progress and
broad dimensions and dynamics of futures studies/-research
hope. Topics ranged f rom the future of democracy and trends
and describes an arena in which we explore the expansiveness
in defence and security to the future of work, education,
of our imagination – an open universe prepared to deal with the
health, living environments and sustainability. The latest
grand challenges of our time, beautifully articulated as desirable
in transdisciplinary technologies and their potential future
visions of sustainable progress and hope.
applications were a prominent feature as were emerging
When you look at the program you will find a long variety of themes and approaches to the Futures field. It combined plenary sessions, guest speakers, panels, workshops and
foresight tools and methods and developments at the intersection of art, science, sci-fi and futures studies. All in all – we can be proud of this year’s event and it
experiential happenings, scientific papers, as well as sponsor
definitely set the standard of our next World Conference, which
and exhibitor displays f rom across the globe. The combined
will be in 2023 and which at the same time will be our 50th
3-day conference program involved around 120 speakers and
years anniversary!
panelists from 46 countries in over 80 sessions. The conference was opened by Dr. Helge Braun, Head of the
We are now working with the proceedings. Papers submitted to the scientific committee of the conference should be
German Chancellery and Federal Minister for Special Affairs in
submitted to selected journals by the authors. In addition we
the fourth coalition government of Chancellor Angela Merkel.
are thinking about a way to present a document that also
Personally, I am proud that Helge Braun took his time to wish
visualise the broad scoped thematic content of the conference.
us welcome on behalf of the German Government, which
The videorecorded material will be – as soon as we got that far –
definitely not was a given option. Other Keynote speakers
presented on the conference website. You then just have to click
included Gabriela Ramos, Assistant Director-General for Social
on the contribution in the program that you are interested, to
and Human Sciences, UNESCO, Dr. Issa H. Al Ansari, President
view presentations and discussions.
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AFTERMOST
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THE NEED FOR A NEW RELATIONSHIP WITH THE POSSIBLE ‘FUTURES.’ By Ralph Mercer
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“
The essence of humanity is diffracted through technology; we are entangled with our technology, and that relationship provides the map to the possible futures. - Decentered Futures, Ralph Mercer
R
EFLECTING on all the issues of Human Futures for 2021, the issues echo, not surprisingly, the tensions
”
of the messy and rebellious approaches. For some onlookers, the field of futures is about creating a
infused in our Covid mediated everyday lives.
plausible image of the future, something that is achievable and
Collectively the Features articles reverberate the
comfortably nestled into their version of “common sense.” Our
practices, technological experiences and social dispositions
comfortable, measurable, “well-laid plans” cannot shape the
inscribed in our everyday lives, creating the ‘vocabulary’
future; the inhabitants of the present are under no obligation
available to futurists to describe, and cope with the realities
to cooperate. The humanistic tendency of common sense is to
of the present and personal expectations of the future.
stifle and resist change. “Technology is a very human trait and
The tensions play out in the struggle between dominant
the essential ingredient to envision and achieve any possible
narratives and counter-narratives, perceptions of truth, and
future. The future evolves from our relationship with the planet,
knowledge across the backdrop of technology that mediates
technology and develops society’s concept of what is the
the possible outcomes.
acceptable image of the human.
All societies, to varying degrees, are transitioning through a
The articles of this last edition for 2021 suggest that the
critical moment in time; we are witnessing the death of many
comfortable and acceptable futures need to be challenged;
of the orthodoxies that held the fabric of societies together.
the articles in the ‘Technical notes’ suggest the ‘opening’ of
The articles highlight that the gates are crumbling in the
approaches to our relationship with technology and the future.
old institutions, truth, science, democracies, universities, and
This notion of “opening” the horizon through one’s gaze offers
inclusiveness are under attack f rom two warring factions; those
a post-disciplinary vantage point to the field of ‘futures studies.’
who would gain power by rolling back time under the illusion
Technology and futures are eminently political and politicizing
of stability and those hungry to rip that power f rom their hands
in this’ transformational’ sense.
and institute radical changes. The victims of the struggle may be truth and knowledge.
The voices and songs of our 2021 Human Futures magazine contributors speak to the complexity of the ‘Futures Studies’ and
Still, it also brings with it a temptation to make the ‘futures
serve as a map through the difficulties of the rebellion needed
f ield’ more accessible, more understood, often at the expense
to evolve our relationship with the future.
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Visit us at WFSF.org twitter: @worldfutures www.linkeadin.com/company/world-futures-studies-federation/
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