Monterey County Travel Impacts 2017-2021

MONTEREY COUNTY TRAVEL IMPACTS 2017-2021P

Prepared for Monterey County Convention and Visitors Bureau

Prepared by Dean Runyan Associates 833 S.W. Eleventh Avenue, Suite 920 Portland, Oregon 97205 (503) 226-2973 www.deanrunyan.com

May 2022

OVERVIEW Monterey County is a diverse visitor destination offering travelers a variety of offerings and experiences. This study, prepared for the Monterey County Convention and Visitors Bureau, documents the economic significance of travel in six prominent cities as well as the county between 2017 and 2021. The report provides preliminary 2021 estimates for travel-related spending, earnings, employment, and tax revenue for each of these geographies as well as a countywide estimate of overnight visitor volume and average spending. Impacts data for 2017-2020 are reported as final, though are subject to potential revisions in the future if new information becomes available.

The impact estimates associated with traveler spending in Monterey County were measured using the Regional Travel Impact Model (RTIM) developed by Dean Runyan Associates (described in Appendix A) and are comparable to those found in the 2021p California State, Regional & County Impacts report prepared for Visit California. The estimates for 2021 are designated as preliminary due to some incomplete source data for the calendar year.

MONTEREY COUNTY TRAVEL IMPACT TRENDS Travel in Monterey County in 2021 remained impacted by the COVID pandemic but saw significant recovery from 2020’s lows. Travel-related spending rebounded 66% from 2020 and generated 44% more local and state tax dollars. Employment, which saw a relatively shallow dive in 2020 due to the CARES Act and other interventions, rose 11%.

Monterey County Direct Travel Impacts, 2017-2021p

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021p

Spending

Earnings

Employment

($Million)

($Million)

2,820 3,136 3,241 1,555 2,541

1,199 1,354 1,424 1,056 1,169

24,500 26,630 27,120 20,340 21,550

10.7% -0.6%

5.9% -3.2%

Tax Receipts ($Million) Local State Total 125 126 251 146 139 285 153 144 296 97 86 183 146 118 264

Annual Percentage Change 20-21p 17-21p

63.5% -2.6%

50.5% 4.0%

36.9% -1.6%

44.1% 1.3%

These estimates supersede all previous report; estimates for 2021 are preliminary.

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TRAVEL IMPACTS WITHIN MONTEREY COUNTY Summary breakouts for seven areas within Monterey County are reported below. The detailed breakouts of travel impacts for areas within Monterey County are based upon room tax receipts reported by the individual jurisdictions and taxable sales reported by the California Department of Tax and Fee Administration. These data allow for a reasonable estimate of the distribution of travel impacts within Monterey County, however such small area estimates are necessarily less reliable than countywide estimates. It is for this reason that only total impacts (e.g., total travel spending, employment) are provided at the sub-county level for the most recent year.

Travel Impacts Within Monterey County, 2021p Spending Carmel Marina Monterey Pacific Grove Salinas Seaside Balance of County Monterey County Total

Earnings

($Million)

($Million)

213 112 592 130 352 150 991 2,541

98 52 272 60 162 69 456 1,169

Employment 1,808 951 5,020 1,106 2,987 1,273 8,405 21,550

Tax Receipts ($Million)

Local State Total 12.2 9.9 22.1 6.4 5.2 11.7 34.0 27.5 61.5 7.5 6.1 13.5 20.2 16.4 36.6 8.6 7.0 15.6 56.9 46.1 103.0 145.9 118.1 264.0

Distribution of Visitor Spending within Monterey County, 2021p

Sources: Dean Runyan Associates, California Department of Tax and Fee Administration, and individual taxing jurisdictions.

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VISITOR VOLUME AND AVERAGE SPENDING IN MONTEREY COUNTY Overnight visitor volumes derived from visitor spending estimates, visitor surveys, and lodging data are shown below. The 3.9 million overnight visitors (person-trips) in 2021 was an increase of 42% from 2020, with total visitor days up an equivalent amount. From a recovery perspective, total person-trips in 2021 reached 91% of pre-pandemic levels.

Hotel, Motel, and STVR person-trips rose to 86% of 2019 levels after falling 62% in 2020.

Monterey County Overnight Visitor Volume, 2019-2021p

Hotel, Motel, STVR Private Home Other Overnight All Overnight

Person-Days (000) 2019 2020 2021p 6,058 3,749 5,187 3,025 1,151 3,015 3,386 3,137 3,310 12,470 8,037 11,512

Hotel, Motel, STVR Private Home Other Overnight All Overnight

Person-Trip (000) 2019 2020 2021p 2,313 1,429 1,977 942 328 861 1,080 1,026 1,106 4,335 2,783 3,943

Party-Days (000) 2019 2020 2,252 1,131 1,412 546 1,161 1,183 4,825 2,860

2021p 1,564 1,431 1,234 4,229

Party-Trips (000) 2019 2020 2021p 859 431 596 435 156 408 369 383 408 1,664 970 1,413

The following table provides total and average spending estimates for overnight travelers to Monterey County in 2021. Total overnight visitor spending has shown a similar recovery, reaching 86% of pre-pandemic levels.

Average Travel Spending by Overnight Visitors in Monterey County*, 2021p Visitor Spending Hotel, Motel, STVR Private Home Other Overnight All Overnight

Travel Party per day per trip

Person Length of per day per trip Stay

Party Size

($Million)

($)

($)

($)

($)

(nights)

(persons)

1,890 194 159 2,244

1,208 136 129 531

3,171 475 391 1,588

364 64 48 195

956 225 144 569

2.6 3.5 3.0 3.0

3.3 2.1 2.7 2.7

*The spending figures shown represent expenditures on all travel related commodities in the destination for each category of overnight visitor.

Travel impacts tables for Monterey County for 2017 through 2021p are shown on the following page and provide detailed spending, earnings, and employment breakouts by type of accommodation, commodity, and industry.

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Monterey County Travel Impacts, 2017-2021p 2017 2018 Total Direct Travel Spending ($Million) Destination Spending 2,726 3,030 Other Travel* 95 105 Total Direct Spending 2,820 3,136 Visitor Spending by Type of Traveler Accommodation ($Million) Hotel, Motel, STVR 1,964 2,214 Private Home 173 191 Campground 44 46 Vacation Home 63 72 Day Travel 482 508 Destination Spending 2,726 3,030 Visitor Spending by Type of Commodity Purchased ($Million) Accommodations 716 835 Food Service 859 939 Food Stores 73 76 Local Tran. & Gas 224 261 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 368 393 Retail Sales 469 509 Visitor Air Tran.

17 18 Destination Spending 2,726 3,030 Industry Earnings Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Accom. & Food Serv.

656 744 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 397 439 Retail** 76 85 Ground Tran.

32 46 Visitor Air Tran.

16 18 Other Travel* 21 22 Total Direct Earnings 1,199 1,354 Industry Employment Generated by Travel Spending (Thousand Jobs) Accom. & Food Serv.

16.6 17.9 Arts, Ent. & Rec. 4.7 5.1 Retail** 2.1 2.3 Ground Tran.

0.7 0.9 Visitor Air Tran.

0.1 0.1 Other Travel* 0.3 0.3 Total Direct Employment 24.5 26.6 Government Revenue Generated by Travel Spending ($Million) Local Tax Receipts 125 146 Visitor 88 104 Business or Employee 37 42 State Tax Receipts 126 139 Visitor 92 103 Business or Employee 34 36 Total Local & State 251 285

2019

2020

2021p

3,128 113 3,241

1,512 43 1,555

2,477 64 2,541

2,281 205 50 73 519 3,128

1,145 71 41 101 153 1,512

1,890 194 52 108 234 2,477

879 967 78 267 394 520 24 3,128

449 485 43 103 184 241 7 1,512

866 727 62 171 274 368 10 2,477

788 453 85 54 20 24 1,424

561 349 87 18 19 22 1,056

660 359 95 18 17 20 1,169

18.2 5.4 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.3 27.1

13.3 3.7 2.1 0.8 0.1 0.3 20.3

14.2 4.1 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.3 21.6

153 109 43 144 106 37 296

97 54 43 86 51 35 183

146 100 45 118 79 40 264

Details may not add to totals due to rounding. *Other Travel includes resident air travel and ground transportation impacts for travel to other California destinations, travel arrangement & reservation services, and convention & trade show organizers. **Retail includes gasoline.

Local tax receipts include transient occupancy tax, sales tax and passenger facility charges paid by visitors, and property tax payments and sales tax payments attributable to the travel industry income of employees and businesses.

State tax receipts include, sales tax and motor fuel tax payments paid by visitors, and income tax payments and sales tax payments attributable to the travel industry income of employees and businesses.

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Appendices

APPENDIX A: REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACT MODEL (RTIM) METHODOLOGY APPENDIX B: TRAVEL IMPACT INDUSTRIES MATCHED TO 2017 NAICS

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APPENDIX A REGIONAL TRAVEL IMPACT MODEL (RTIM) TRAVEL IMPACT ESTIMATION PROCEDURES Travel Impacts Methodology Dean Runyan Associates uses our proprietary Regional Travel Impact Model (RTIM). This input-output model uses a fiscal based approach to accurately quantify travel and reduce reliance and variability of survey data. Each accommodation type (Hotel/Motel/STVR, Private Home, Vacation Home, Camping, and Day) is modeled uniquely to capture the different types of economic contributions from these visitors. Earnings and employment data are derived from the relationship between business income and employee expenses.

Tax receipts are generated based on each unique tax rate that applies to the underlying economic activity.

Our approach starts at local levels of geography building up to state findings. The RTIM is in use in 12 states covering over 400 counties and local jurisdictions. Findings from this study are directly comparable to any of our research publications.

Travel Impacts Assumptions The distribution of commodity expenditures by city level visitors tracks closely with the larger geographic region of Monterey County.

- Overnight visitors are defined as any traveler utilizing accommodations that are Hotels/Motels, Vacation Home Rentals (VHR), Camping, Private Home (VFR), and 2nd home ownership.

-Day visitors include anyone that has traveled 50 miles one way, and is not on routine travel (commuting or periodic retail trips).

- Travel contains tourism activity, business activity, and other transient activity.

- Source data is accurate and complete. (Sources include: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, STR LLC., U.S. Department of Transportation, Omnitrak Group) DEFINITIONS TRAVEL SPENDING Hotel, Motel, STVR. Spending on commercial accommodations by hotel and motel guests is estimated from transient lodging tax collections at the city/county jurisdictional level.

Campgrounds. Spending by campers using commercial campgrounds is estimated from the number of commercial campsites, the average occupancy of these campsites.

Spending by campers using public campgrounds is estimated from visitor counts at federal, state, and locally managed campsites and recreation areas, and the average daily expenditures of visitor camp parties reported in survey data.

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Private Home. Spending by private home guests is determined from census data and visitor survey data. The average number of days per year visitors hosted by residents and the average daily spending of these visitors are estimated from visitor survey data.

Vacation Home. The estimated spending by vacation home renters and owners is also based on census data and visitor survey data.

Day Travel. The share of day visits as a percentage of total travel is estimated from visitor survey data and applied to average daily spending estimates to produce day visitor spending.

Spending by visitors in other business categories, such as food and transportation, is estimated using spending distributions reported in the visitor survey data.

RELATED TRAVEL IMPACTS Spending by travelers generates jobs, payroll, and state and local tax revenue.

Earnings generated directly from traveler expenditures are estimated from a payroll-toreceipts ratio obtained from the 2017 Economic Census and earnings estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Employment in each business category is calculated from wage data supplied by the U.S. Department of Labor and earnings estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Local Taxes consist of local room taxes and sales taxes attributable to visitor spending and property and sales taxes attributable to travel industry employees and businesses.

State Taxes consist of sales taxes and motor fuel taxes attributable to visitors and income and sales taxes attributable to travel industry employees.

INTERPRETATION OF IMPACT ESTIMATES Users of this report should be aware of other issues regarding the interpretation of reported impact estimates.

•

All estimates contained in this report supersede those previously published.

•

The estimates in this report are expressed in current dollars. There is no adjustment for inflation.

•

Economic impact measurements reported herein represent only direct economic impacts. Direct economic impacts include only the spending by travelers and the employment generated by that spending. Secondary effects related to the additional spending of businesses and employees are not included.

•

The employment estimates in this report are estimates of the total number of full and part-time jobs directly generated by travel spending, rather than the number of individuals employed. Both payroll and self-employment are included in these

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estimates. Caution should therefore be used in comparing these estimates with other employment data series.

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APPENDIX B TRAVEL IMPACT INDUSTRIES MATCHED TO 2017 NAICS TRAVEL IMPACT INDUSTRY

NAICS INDUSTRIES* (code)

Accommodations & Food Services Accommodations (721) Food Services and Drinking Places (722) Residential Property Managers (531311) Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Performing Arts, Spectator Sports (711) Museums (712) Amusement, Gambling (713) Scenic and Sightseeing Transportation (487) Miscellaneous Industries (see note**) Retail Food & Beverage Stores (445) Gasoline Stations (447) Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (448) Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores (451) General Merchandise Stores (452) Miscellaneous Store Retailers (453) Ground Transportation Interurban and Rural Bus Transportation (4852) Taxi and Limousine Service (4853) Charter Bus Industry (4855) Passenger Car Rental (532111) Parking Lots and Garages (812930) Notes: *Government enterprises (e.g., park systems) are included in this classification **Includes parts of industries in other sectors (e.g., accommodation, charter bus).

A more detailed description of these industries can be found at http://www.ntis.gov/naics

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