Asian Military Review - April/May 2020 by Armada International & Asian Military Review

Volume 28/issue 3

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Contents april/may 2020 VOLUME 28 / ISSUE 3

UAVS OVER THE MARITIME HORIZON

JR Ng examines the variety of UAVs now operating in the maritime, including an update on Chinese platforms.

AV8 Gempita AFV 30 variant equipped with the Denel LCT 30 turret and carrying a 30mm cannon during a National Day Parade rehearsal. (Dzirhan Mahadzir)

5TH GENERATION FIGHTERS; BEYOND LOCKHEED MARTIN

BIGGER AND BADDER

The F-22 and F-35 are widely know as 5th Generation combat aircraft, but international competitors are rising to the challenge, as Jon Lake reports.

Christopher Foss details the increase in weapon calibre now being installed on a range of wheeled and tracked armoured vehicles.

AI CUTS THE CLUTTER

Thomas Withington investigates how artificial intelligence will help sort the ‘wheat from the chaff’ in a crowded electromagnetic environment.

ANALYSTS COLUMN

Having just announced their purchase of four F-35B fighters, Ben Ho argues that the F-35A might ultimately be the best aircraft for Singapore’s Air Force.

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THE TIMES THEY ARE A-CHANGIN’

ince my last column - China’s Influence(za) freezes business at the Singapore Airshow - the coronavirus (COVID-19) has become a pandemic and has spread across the globe. At time of writing there are almost 230,000 cases globally, there have been nearly 10,000 deaths, and most of the major cities in Europe and the United States are shutting down for an, as yet, undetermined period of time. Schools are closed and people are working from home where they can.

This is an unprecedented time in modern history, where normal life is being transformed, stock markets have been in free-fall and the world economy is in uncharted territory. This has come at a very bad time for some organisations, such as Boeing, who have experienced the double whammy of the 737 Max debacle and now the civil airline business at a virtual standstill. But defence acquisition is a long term business, carried out over years if not decades in the case of major platforms. Defence manufacturers will largely have the in-built resilience to endure through the current crisis, although defence budgets are likely to be cut after the crisis to make up for the huge spending that each government is incurring as it pumps money into its respective national economy. However, in the business of defence marketing, the seemingly inexorable round of defence shows, airshows, conferences and lectures has been brought to a juddering halt. International travel bans and the closing of borders has meant that that the continual marketing ‘road trip’ is on hold for an indefinite time. So new business generation has taken a hit. No doubt this will restart at some point when the ‘all clear’ is sounded, although getting back to the same frenetic pace will take some time as not all countries will recover at the same point. Indeed, at the moment it is difficult to see how the virus can be overcome until immunity becomes widespread and the contagious element virtually eliminated. Many of those in the business of selling defence have complained about the number of events being staged worldwide and the financial cost of ‘keeping up with the Jones’; the fear of being the organisation not to attend and incurring the displeasure of the local customer who might buy System X or Vehicle Y. Now is their opportunity to completely re-evaluate how they market their wares to their international customer base. In the meantime the internet and social networking ensure that global communications keep flowing across the world’s closed borders, and of course traditional magazines such as Asian Military Review and Armada International, together with their associated websites and Electronic Warfare newsletter, will continue to keep readers informed and updated through our network of senior defence correspondents who continually provide updates on defence news as it happens, the progress of research and development programmes and of course strategic analysis as it unfolds across the world. Keep safe. Keep well….and keep reading. Andrew Drwiega, Editor-in-Chief

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sea

Japanese MoD

power

In 2013, Japan’s Ministry of Defense released imagery and tracking data of the Chinese BZK-005 long-range surveillance UAV approaching the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.

UAVS OVER THE MARITIME HORIZON

Maritime patrolling with UAVs has becoming the norm, allowing manned missions to be dedicated to more labour intensive tasks.

irborne maritime domain operations such as antisubmarine warfare (ASW), intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) and patrol missions have typically been the province of multi-engine aircraft specifically designed for extended overwater operations or commercial platforms modified for such operations. However, the means of acquiring and maintaining adequate fleets of such manned platforms remain beyond what some Asia Pacific countries – including maritime states with large economic exclusive zones (EEZs) and contiguous waters to secure – can field by their respective air and naval forces and maritime security agencies. As a result, there is a growing requirement for affordable alternatives to conventional ISR and maritime patrol aircraft (MPA) which the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) industry hopes to

by JR Ng address with medium- and high-altitude, long endurance (MALE and HALE) platforms with their long range and loiter capabilities as well as their inherent to carry multiple sensor payloads simultaneously. At the other end of the spectrum are smaller fixed-wing and vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) UAVs, which are also gaining favour as shipborne ISR assets that can be readily deployed to extend a surface vessel’s detection range.

MALE UAVs Israel’s Elbit Systems has developed a maritime patrol mission suite for its Hermes 900 UAV, which can comprise a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) such as Leonardo’s Gabianno T200 X-band radar, a stabilised electro-optical/infrared (EO/ IR) turret and electronic surveillance systems. According to Elbit’s specifications, the Hermes 900 has a maximum take-off

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weight (MTOW) of up to 2,600lb (1,180kg) and can carry 660lb (300kg) of mission equipment. This includes up to 550lb (250kg) of internal stores in its 2.5m-long payload bay, which the company believes to be among the largest available for its class. Elbit Systems has also stated that its Universal Ground Control Station (UGCS) can simultaneously control two Hermes 900 UAVs to maximise asset utilisation and manpower, while reducing overall operating costs. The Hermes 900 has met with a recent string of successes in Europe. For instance, the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) has been used to provide maritime patrol services to on a daily rotation since April 2019, with Iceland being the first country to take advantage of this service. According to Elbit Systems, the Icelandic maritime authorities are using the eastern Egilsstaðir airport from which the UAV – modified to withstand

sea power

pave the way for Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) permission to operate these systems in unrestricted airspace.

HERON FISHES FOR SUBS Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) has introduced a new ASW capability to its Heron MALE UAV family. The company said it has developed a new sonobuoy dispensing system (SDS) and a magnetic anomaly detector (MAD) which enable air vehicle to detect and track submarines in both shallow and deep waters. These new payloads complement the Heron’s primary surveillance sensor, the IAI ELTA E/LM-2022U maritime radar which is lighter and more compact version of the E/LM-2022 system already deployed aboard MPAs around the world. According to IAI, the E/LM-2022U can cover up to 150 nautical miles (nm) of water from a cruising altitude of 20,000 feet (6,100m) “The use of UAV-mounted ASW capabilities offers significant advantages over conventional manned aircraft, including longer mission time, persistent monitoring of sonobuoys, and centralised operation of surveillance over very large areas,” the company stated. According to IAI, the radar – which it claims can detect and classify “all types” of surface targets from large

vessels to low radar cross section (RCS) boats using inverse-SAR mode – can be complemented by electronic support measures (ESM) and communications intelligence (COMINT) systems to monitor electromagnetic signatures and cue the radar to the presence of vessels and human activity. “The ELM-2022U can spot submarine periscopes and snorkels from a great distance,” the company added, noting that the UAV would engage its SDS and loiter over an area to receive and process acoustic signals generated by deployed sonobuoys, cross referenced with data from its MAD probe, radar, and EO/IR sights. The intelligence is then transmitted to a shore-based control centre or a ship’s combat information centre (CIC) using satellite communication (SATCOM) or direct line-of-sight (LOS) datalinks. IAI is also highlighting how Heron UAV mission control modules, including stabilised directional antennas and SATCOM terminals, can enable naval vessels to take over control of in-theatre UAVs to as part of their organic sensor net to boost situational awareness. Elbit Systems has found some traction in the airborne maritime patrol and surveillance market with its Hermes 900 UAV.

Elbit Systems

the North Atlantic Ocean’s strong winds and icy conditions – can cover over half of the country’s EEZ. The Hermes 900 has also found regional traction with at least two of the nine air vehicles – ordered under a $153 million package that includes other UAVs such as the Hermes 450 and Skylark – already delivered and undergoing local testing and integration by the Philippine Air Force (PAF). Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana told media that the Hermes 450 and Hermes 900 UAVs are expected to be operated from airbases in Palawan province facing the South China Sea as well as in the southern province of Mindanao. More recently, Elbit Systems announced in February that it has been contracted by the UK’s Maritime and Coastguard Agency (MCA) to supply several UAV’s including the Hermes 900 to explore the feasibility of supporting search and rescue (SAR) operations. The MCA will commence evaluations from West Wales airport within 2020, while the maritime missions will be conducted within the Aberporth military training area. One of the main objectives, according to MCA officials, will be to validate the effectiveness and safety of UAVs and

| april/may 2020 |

sea

JR Ng

power

China’s CASC is developing a heavy fuel engine version of its popular CH-4 UAV and eyeing regional requirements for affordable maritime patrol. It has also integrated a belly mounted synthetic aperture radar seen here.

airframe of the BZK-005 comprises a main fuselage that incorporates a top-mounted satellite communications antenna fairing, with swept back mid-mounted wings that support twin tailbooms. The company claims that this configuration Company specifications, the BZK-005 has maximum take-off weight (MTOW) of 2,755lb (1,250kg) and offers a payload

Schiebel

The Chinese perspective The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is widely seen to be one of the leading regional developers of maritime-specific UAVs, having deployed such platforms operationally for at least a decade. For instance, the interception of a Chinese air vehicle – since identified to be the MALEclass Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (BUAA) BZK-005 – by Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) combat aircraft over the East China Sea on 9 September 2013 provided the first glimpse of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF’s) emerging longrange unmanned maritime surveillance capabilities. According to the Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD), the JASDF aircraft tracked the UAV heading towards the Miyako strait between Okinawa and Miyakojima islands before the air vehicle performed a short circular patrol about 92nm (170km) shy of the waterway before returning to China. The indigenously developed BZK005 UAV – also known as the Changying (Long Eagle) – is understood to be the standard long-range reconnaissance and electronic intelligence (ELINT) platform for the PLAAF as well as the PLA Ground Force (PLAGF) and PLA Navy (PLAN). According to Beihang UAS, the commercial arm of BUAA, the distinctive

carrying capacity of 330lb (150kg). The UAV is powered by a rear-mounted piston engine that drives a two-bladed pusher-propeller that enables it to attain a claimed maximum level flight speed of 107kts (200km/h) although it typically cruises at speeds between 64-97kts (120180 km/h) up to its ceiling of 24,000ft (7,300m). Operational radius is believed to exceed 1,000 nautical miles (1,850km) when equipped with SATCOM datalinks. Beihang UAS is quoting a flight endurance of 40 hours when the BZK-005 is configured as a maritime ISR platform with a chin-mounted EO/IR sensor turret, although it has also been sighted over the years with a chin-mounted SAR system along with a belly mounted EO/IR turret, or studded with COMINT/ELINT antennas. The company launched an export variant called the BZK-005E in late 2018, which features a higher MTOW of 3,300lb (1,500kg) and improved payload capacity of 815lb (370kg) and is understood to feature a more powerful, three-bladed propulsion system. It has also developed the TYW-1, a strike-capable version of the BZK-005 with four underwing hardpoints that can be used to mount weapons. The state-owned China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) is likewise developing a new heavy fuel engine (HFE)-equipped variant of its Cai Hong 4 (Rainbow 4, or CH-4) MALE UAV for potential maritime operations, noting that such propulsion

Schiebel is offering its S-100 vertical take-off and landing UAV with a new heavy fuel engine and wide area sensors such as the PT-8 Oceanwatch.

| Asian Military Review |

sea

JR Ng

power

Beihang UAS is offering an improved version of the shadowy in-service BZK-005 medium altitude long endurance reconnaissance UAV for export.

configurations can offer extended onstation loiter while reducing maintenance workloads. The CH-4 has been acquired by military forces in the Middle East and even Southeast Asia, with the Indonesian Air Force (TNI-AU) set to receive as many as six conventionally powered air vehicles along with associated ground control equipment and mission systems. At least two examples have already been delivered as of October 2019.

VTOL UAVs Regional interest in VTOL UAVs has also taken off largely due to a growing requirement to equip new naval and even maritime security vessels with an organic and readily deployable offboard sensor platform to aid situational awareness and/or targeting. Unlike shipborne fixed-wing UAVs such as the Boeing-Insitu ScanEagle system that must be launched by a catapult and recovered via an arresting cable or net (which potentially limits their recovery envelope), VTOL UAVs typically require much less deck space and are therefore easier to operate from smaller vessels. Austria’s Schiebel has gained a foothold in the region with its S-100 Camcopter platform, which has been acquired under the Australian Department of Defence’s (DoD’s) Navy

Minor Project (NMP) 1942 programme aimed addressing a shipborne UAV requirement by the Royal Australian Navy (RAN). The S-100 has a MTOW of 440lb (200kg) and features a two-blade main rotor with a diameter of 3.4m and streamlined carbon fibre monocoque pod and boom fuselage. According to company specifications, the UAV can carry up to 110lb (50kg) in stores along with 110lb (50kg) of fuel and is understood to offer a six-hour endurance when carrying a 74lb (34kg) payload, although this can be extended to 10 hours with an external fuel tank. This effort is expected to lead on to Project Sea 129 Phase 5 Stage 1, which will field a suitable UAV aboard the RAN’s 12 Arafura-class offshore patrol vessels (OPVs), the first two of which are being built by ASC under the direction of prime contractor Lürssen. Phase 2 will select another UAV type to equip the nine future BAE Systems Hunter-class frigates. The RAN’s S-100 UAVs are believed to be equipped with L3Harris Wescam’s MX-10 EO/IR payload, which can support up to six sensors simultaneously including high-definition daylight and thermal cameras. It can also be equipped with an eye-safe laser rangefinder to aid targeting. To boost the S-100’s maritime surveillance capabilities, Schiebel has integrated Overwatch Imaging’s

| Asian Military Review |

PT-8 Oceanwatch wide-area maritime surveillance payload which is designed to detect small or distant objects. According to the latter, the PT-8 system employs a purpose-built multi-camera gimbal with onboard artificial intelligence (AI) software that automatically detects and tracks objects of interest. Schiebel announced in November 2019 that it has secured a deal to supply an undisclosed number of S-100 UAVs to the Royal Thai Navy (RTN). “Following an extensive competitive tender process, Schiebel was awarded its first contract with [Thailand], which was signed by Schiebel’s CEO Hannes Hecher and Admiral Prachachart Sirisawat, director general Naval Acquisition Management Office, and authorised by [the] Commander-in-Chief of Royal Thai Navy Headquarters in Bangkok,” the company said, noting that the S-100 will be the service’s first VTOL UAV. According to Schiebel, the UAVs will be deployed in 2020 to the Pak Phanang district in the southern Nakhon Si Thammarat province, as well aboard RTN frigates to support land- and sea-based ISR operations. The company said it will supply the UAVs and effect technology transfer via its local partner, the Bangkokbased MoraThai Defence Company. Switzerland’s UMS Skeldar is also looking to leverage on its recent successes with the Canadian Armed Forces and the German Navy with its V-200B VTOL UAV to secure its first customer in the Asia Pacific. The latest V-200B platform has a MTOW of 518lb (235kg) and features a 4m long pod and boom fuselage with a two-bladed main rotor measuring 4.6m in diameter, a belly mounted payload bay and fixed twin-skid undercarriage. The V-200B features a lighter propulsion system that provides up to 22lb (10kg) in weight savings, which can be applied to either increase its endurance or payload capacity. For the maritime mission, UMS Skeldar has integrated Sentient Systems’ visual detection and ranging (ViDAR) payload, which is a persistent widearea maritime sensor that automatically detects objects on the ocean surface and provides the operator with detailed imagery and location coordinates of surface objects. According to Sentient Systems, the ViDAR offers a 20nm (37km) wide search swath, equating to over 13,360 square nautical miles of cover in 12 hours at a speed of 60kts (111km/h). AMR

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Russian Sukhoi Su-57 ‘Felon’

5TH GENERATION FIGHTERS; BEYOND LOCKHEED MARTIN International competition is 'hotting up' to design alternatives to

Lockheed Martin’s 5th Generation F-22 and F-35 combat aircraft. And 6th Generation is just over the horizon.

redictions about the future of air to air combat aircraft and of tactical fast jet aircraft have changed rapidly. About a decade ago, many expert observers, analysts, and industry insiders confidently predicted that the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II would be the

by Jon Lake last manned fighter programme, and that manned fighters would give way to advanced and autonomous stealthy drones. But since then, a succession of asymmetric and counter insurgency campaigns have underlined the vital importance of having a human ‘in the

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loop’, and ‘on the scene.’ Situational awareness is hard to achieve when an operator’s view of the scene is provided by a narrow field-of-view video sensor and via a relatively low-resolution TV screen. There is little ability to detect movement using peripheral vision, nor to pick up a thin wisp of smoke or a momentary

AIR

Chinese Internet

power

First public flight of the Chengdu J-20 prototype, 11th January, 2011

(Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG) used the tag for its MiG-35. There have been some attempts to catch up (or at least narrow the gap) with the F-22 and F-35, and both Russia and China have attempted to develop their own stealth fighters in the shape of the Russian Sukhoi Su-57 ‘Felon’ and China’s Chengdu J-20. But while both of these fighters do incorporate some of the characteristics that are supposed to mark out the5th Generation, both fail to fully meet Lockheed’s definition. The Su-57 is optimised for reduced frontal RCS, and does feature very high performance and supermanoeuvrability, and has a degree of information fusion though it very clearly does not have allaspect RCS, and has large, conventional jet pipes. The Su-57 can engage enemy aircraft at very long range, but is intended to get close to US stealth fighters, forcing them into a WVR engagement, where

Chengdu J-20 China’s first new generation fighter, the Chengdu J-20 is now in frontline service with the 9th Air Brigade at Wuhu Air Base, having made its maiden flight on 11 January 2011. A large fighter, similar in size to the F-22, the J-20 has a configuration reminiscent of the MiG 1.42/1.44, with a Delta wing, twin tailfins and canard foreplanes. The J-20 does appear to incorporate some LO characteristics, though it appears to be optimised for reduced frontal RCS, and not for all-aspect stealth. The aircraft is believed to offer a combination of high speed, a large missile load and long range, rather than great agility or very low RCS. China’s second ‘stealth fighter’ is the Shenyang J-31 (designated FC-31 for export), which is claimed to be cheaper, lighter and more maneouverable than the J-20. The J-31 bears some resemblance to the original YF-22, though it has conventional circular section convergent/

Shenyang

glint. A video camera could fail to register visual phenomena like these. Competing demands for bandwidth and enemy GPS jamming can also be limiting factors for unmanned platforms, while latency can make the air-to-air role particularly difficult for an unmanned platform. As a consequence of these limitations, there has been a distinct shift in attitudes, and Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs) are today seen as a complement to manned combat aircraft, as well as an attritable adjunct. The manned fighter’s future again seems secure, and a number of new types are under development. For some years, it has been assigned that only Low Observable (‘stealthy’) fighters could survive in contested airspace, and that older fighters that lacked radar stealth were, by definition, verging on obsolescence. The 5th Generation label was adopted by Lockheed Martin as a marketing term, aimed at differentiating its new stealthy F-22 and F-35 fighters from their competitors. Lockheed originally defined the 5th Generation as enjoying all-aspect radar stealth, supermaneouvrability (the capability of fighter aircraft to execute tactical maneouvers that are not possible with purely aerodynamic mechanisms) and super-cruise performance. When it became clear that the F-35’s super-cruise performance was marginal, different characteristics were brought into the definition, including sustained supersonic operations, high altitude capability (>50,000 feet), highly integrated avionics and sensor fusion and net enabled capabilities, but VLO stealth remained the cornerstone of Lockheed’s fifth generation definition. Others defined 5th Generation using different attributes: Boeing would claim the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet was 5th Generation, while Russia’s RSK-MiG

the Su-57’s supermaneuvrability and 3-D thrust vectoring are intended and expected to give it a decisive advantage. The Su-57 prototype flew for the first time on 29 January 2010, and series production began in July 2019. Currently 76 Su-57s are scheduled for delivery to the Air Force by 2028, though just 15 have been ordered to date. Plans for the production of 144 aircraft as the FGFA to meet Indian requirements have been abandoned. Su-57s have undertaken brief deployments to Khmeimim air base in Syria for combat evaluation.

The Shenyang J-31 (designated FC-31 for export), is claimed to be cheaper, lighter and more maneouverable than the J-20

| april/may 2020 |

AIR power

divergent afterburner nozzles, with no thrust vectoring. The aircraft was developed independently as a ‘private venture’ by the state-owned Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, perhaps benefiting from the work of Chinese cyber attackers, who reportedly acquired terabytes of secret information from the database of the Joint Strike Fighter programme. The prototype first flew on 31 October 2012, but it was not until 2018, that reports emerged suggesting that the FC-31 program has received State funding and was likely to be procured for the People’s Liberation Army Air Force and for the PLANAF. A number of new advanced fighter programmes are now in development. Interestingly, most of these echo the twin-tailed LO configuration of the F-22 and F-35. Korea’s KAI KF-X is not a true stealth fighter, and features an external IRST and in its initial form at least, will rely on the external carriage of targeting pods, weapons and fuel, though internal weapons carriage will be introduced after the initial Block I aircraft. KAI plans to roll out a prototype in the first half of 2021, with a first flight in early 2022, and service entry in 2026. Like the KF-X, Turkey’s TF-X, also known as the National Combat Aircraft (Turkish abbreviation MMU), was unveiled in mock-up form in 2019. A prototype is due to be rolled out in 2023 with a first flight in 2025, leading

Turkish Aerospace

The TF-X programme being conducted by Turkish Aerospace aims to provide the Turkish Air Force (TurAF) with a 5th Generation aircraft to meet its requirements beyond 2030s.

to service entry in 2028. The TF-X is intended to replace the Turkish air force’s fleet of Lockheed Martin F-16C/Ds and was originally expected to augment the F-35, with the TF-X planned to provide better air-to-air combat capabilities than the Joint Strike Fighter, with high manoeuvrability, all-aspect LO, and sensor fusion. Although Japan has now ordered 105 F-35As (the first 38 being built by Mitsubishi) and 42 F-35Bs, it has an aspiration to maintain indigenous aircraft design and production capabilities and has a requirement for more advanced fighter aircraft. In February 2019, Japan announced that a new indigenous stealth fighter, the F-3, would be developed as part of the next ten-year Mid-Term Defense Programme (MTDP). This followed speculation that plans for a new indigenous fighter based on the X-2 (previously ATD-X) Shinshin technology demonstrator had been cancelled. The new fighter will reportedly incorporate a number of technologies tested on the X-2, including EMP-resistant fibreoptic fly-by-light controls, and flight control systems that can automatically compensate for damage, as well as an innovative composite ceramic/silicon carbide skin. In India, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) programme was launched In October 2008. AMCA is intended to be an indigenous multi-role

| Asian Military Review |

fighter with high levels of agility, super cruise, heavy payload, and a low radar cross-section. The general configuration was frozen in 2015, and detailed design is now underway. A prototype is now expected to make its first flight in 2032. These Korean, Turkish and Japanese aircraft could perhaps be described as 5th Generation fighters, but an even more advanced group of combat aircraft is now under development, perhaps inevitably prompting use of the term 6th Generation. Each of these programmes aim to produce a manned combat aircraft at the heart of a ‘system of systems’, which will also incorporate unmanned ‘loyal wingmen’ (also known as remote carriers), swarming drones and a host of other connected air power assets. The future manned fighter may not have a full range of capabilities by itself but will operate as highly-connected network nodes, passing and receiving fused sensor data and other information to multiple other platforms and participants (including ships, ground forces and satellites), contributing to a complex and highly accurate picture of the battlespace. This promises to ensure unmatched situational awareness for the pilot. The manned fighters at the heart of these programmes are still in the study stage, with different concepts and aircraft configurations still being assessed. Some expect there to be less emphasis on radar stealth but rather a more balanced effort

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UTC Aerospace Systems and Rockwell Collins are now Collins Aerospace.

AIR

BAE Systems

power

BAE Systems and its partners are developing the Tempest design to be a 6th Generation combat fighter.

to reduce radar, IR, electronic, acoustic and even visual signature. There may be a greater emphasis on increased speed and range. Europe took an early lead in drawing up plans for these new Future Combat Air Systems. The Airbus consortium first revealed its FCAS proposal in July 2016, designing the aircraft and its supporting assets in response to a joint GermanSpanish Next Generation Weapon System (NGWS) requirement. France and Germany signed a High Level Common Operational Requirements Document for an FCAS (also known as SCAF or Système de Combat Aérien Futur) in April 2018, with Dassault taking design leadership for the Next Generation Fighter (NGF) element of the NGWS. Spain formally joined the European Future Combat Air System/Système de Combat Aérien Futur (FCAS/SCAF) programme on 14 February 2019. The British government and the Royal Air Force’s Rapid Capability Office have joined with BAE Systems, Leonardo, MBDA and Rolls Royce to form Team Tempest in 2018. The group was charged with conducting a wide-ranging Future Combat Air System Technology Initiative (FCAS TI), which was to include a host of technology demonstration programmes. A new, next-generation fighter concept (dubbed Tempest) was unveiled on 16 July 2018 at the Farnborough Airshow, but this represented just one in a range of concepts explored by Team Tempest. It was indicative only of a possible direction

of travel – a glimpse into what the future could look like, though it did indicate that the UK was pushing to develop a new manned combat aircraft within its FCAS system or systems. On 19 July 2019 Sweden and the United Kingdom signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to explore ways of jointly developing sixth-generation air combat technologies, while Italy announced its involvement in Team Tempest on 10 September 2019. The United States Air Force is looking at a similar ‘System of Systems’ approach to meet its - Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) requirement. This was intended to include a Next Generation Tactical Aircraft (the so-called Penetrating Counter Air (PCA) aircraft) to replace the Boeing F-15 Eagle and the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor in the air superiority and air dominance roles. The United States Navy is examining its own Next Generation Air Dominance analysis of alternatives, seeking a replacement for the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and E/A-18G Growler for service entry in the 2030s. The Navy places less emphasis on Stealth, but instead focused on increased range, since range was perceived to be a significant limitation for the carrier air wing. But 5th and 6th Generation fighters are far from being the ‘only game in town.’ 2019 saw a growing recognition that nonstealthy fighters are not somehow fatally flawed and catastrophically vulnerable and that they still have a vital role to

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play. The USAF long ago abandoned its ambitious plans for an ‘all-Stealthy’ frontline aircraft fleet, developing a doctrine and tactics that saw older, non-stealthy fighters operating in coordination with fifth generation assets. Most of the world’s leading air forces are developing (or have developed) similar concepts of operations that will see them co-ordinating the operational use of F-35s with operations by their older fighter types. These may offer some different sensor capabilities, some useful performance characteristics, and a much larger arsenal of weapons. 4th and 5th Generation fighters can operate synergistically, with each bringing different strengths and advantages to the fight. There is even a growing realisation that radar stealth may soon not be the best or most effective means of achieving survivability in a contested environment – counter stealth technologies are being developed and are already starting to proliferate, while the greater use of networked sensors (including IRST systems and EO/IR devices) may make it harder for fifth generation aircraft to successfully ‘hide’. If bistatic radar, or metre-wave radar, or some other technological advance deprives LO aircraft of their ability to delay or reduce the chances of detection, stealth might start to look as anachronistic and irrelevant as some of the clever camouflage schemes and paints that were once used to hide nocturnal bombers from prowling night fighters, or to reduce their conspicuity if illuminated by searchlights. Some believe that reprogrammable electronic warfare systems can provide ‘digital stealth’, and represent a more effective means of countering evolving threats. Mark Hewer, Leonardo’s Vice President for the Integrated Mission Solutions Business Area, points out that: “You cannot easily modify a stealth platform to counter new high-end threats, because you can’t redesign the skin of your aircraft, or its internal structure, or its configuration. You have got what you have got.” This means that when new counterstealth radars are introduced, there will be little that can be done to counter that, or to restore the combat advantage enjoyed by stealth aircraft. By contrast, EW systems can be upgraded and updated, incorporating new hardware and software and are thereby able to evolve to take account of a changing and

AIR

Dassault/Airbus

power

Dassault Aviation and Airbus showed for the first time a life sized model of their Next Generation Fighter (NGF) at Paris Air Show, 17 June, 2019.

dynamic threat, in a way that stealth aircraft cannot. Others believe that a renewed emphasis on defence suppression and electronic attack offers a better way of ensuring survivability in the modern battlespace. This may have given a renewed ‘window of opportunity’ for further sales of late ‘fourth generation’, nonstealthy fighters, like the Boeing F-15K/ SA/SG/QA Advanced Eagle, the Boeing F/A-8E/F Super Hornet, the Dassault Rafale, the Eurofighter Typhoon and the Saab Gripen, which may continue to compete with later fighter types, perhaps particularly in the Asia Pacific region. Remarkably, even in the second decade of the 21st Century, the USAF is still placing orders for advanced derivatives of the Boeing F-15 Eagle, a decidedly last-generation fighter which first entered service in 1974, while the Lockheed Martin F-16 (which is of similar vintage) is also continuing to find new customers. AMR

land

Christopher F Foss

warfare

The German PSM Puma Armoured Infantry Fighting Vehicle is fitted with a remote controlled turret armed with a Mauser 30mm MK 30-2 dual feed cannon and a co-axial MG

BIGGER AND BADDER Infantry Fighting Vehicle operators want more punch from their medium calibre cannons - and onboard missiles will increase the number of blows they can deliver.

he latest generation of Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV) are being armed with larger calibre weapons which have increased range and fire more effective ammunition. The main drawback of moving to a larger calibre is that less ammunition is carried but this is offset by the greater effectiveness of the ammunition. Some of these larger calibre weapons are installed in one or two person turrets while others operate in remote controlled turrets (RCT). A computerised fire control system (FCS) is usually fitted enabling the main armament to engage threat targets when

by Christopher F Foss the platform is stationary or moving. The weapon, which is stabilised, is laid onto the target by the gunner and/or the commander who are normally provided with an integrated stabilised day/ thermal sighting systems incorporating a laser rangefinder. While there is some standardisation in members of NATO on larger calibre tank (120mm smooth bore) and artillery (155mm) ammunition there is a complete lack of standardisation in medium calibre weapons in NATO with calibres of 20mm, 25mm, 30mm, 35mm and 40mm currently being deployed. The opposite is the case for the Russian Army and former members of the Warsaw

| Asian Military Review |

Pact who use the 30mm 2A42 dual feed cannon. Typical installations including the BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle (IFV), BMD-2 and BMD-3 airborne assault vehicles (AAV) and many others.

Ammunition While the main thrust of this article is on the actual weapon, development of ammunition is always on going with medium calibre weapons now firing armour piercing fin stabilised discarding sabot (APFSDS) and air-burst munitions (ABM). The latter are more expensive but are highly effective against dug in infantry. The British and French armies

Christopher F Foss French Nexter VBCI (8x8) has a one person turret armed with a Nexter 25mm M811 dual feed cannon and 7.62mm co-axial MG

for almost 50 years and is armed with a Rheinmetall 20mm MK 20 Rh 202 dual feed cannon and 7.62mm MG3 co-axial MG. Surplus Marder 1 IFV have been supplied to Chile, Indonesia and Jordan. Marder 1 is slowly being replaced by the Puma IFV which is fitted with an RCT turret armed with the Mauser 30mm MK 30-2 ABM dual feed cannon with a 5.56mm co-axial MG which will be replaced by a 7.62mm MG. A pod of two MELLS anti-tank missiles (ATM) are to be installed on the left side of the turret. Australia has ordered the Boxer (8x8) to replace its LAV-25 (8x8) reconnaissance vehicles and one version will be armed with the latest Rheinmetall Lance two person turret armed with Mauser MK 30-2 and7.62 mm co-axial MG. The original Mauser 30mm MK 30 dual feed cannon is installed in the General Dynamics European Land Systems Ulan (Austria) and Pizarro (Spain) IFV and the Rheinmetall Lance turret installed on four Piranha III (8x8) for the Spanish Marines. While the Mauser 30mm MK 30 dual feed cannon is gas operated, Mauser has also been working on the Wotan 30mm

cannon which is electrically powered. The BAE Systems Hagglunds CV9040 is the standard IFV of the Swedish Army and is fitted with a two person turret armed with a Bofors 40mm L/70 cannon which is fed from a magazine below holding 24 rounds of ready use ammunition and with the empty cartridge cases ejected through the turret roof. Export customers for the CV90 IFV have always opted for a different weapon including Denmark (35mm), Finland (30mm), Estonia (35mm), Norway (30mm), Netherlands (35mm) and Switzerland (30mm) with these supplied by the now Northrop Grumman, Armament systems. While the ideal solution is to have a common medium calibre weapon across the whole AFV fleet, this is not always achieved. Malaysia, for example, is taking delivery of a complete fleet of Turkish FNSS Savunma Sistemleri Pars (8x8) family of vehicles with production now undertaken in Malaysia by DefTech under the local name of the AV8 Gemita. The IFV version is fitted with an FNSS Savunma Sistemleri Sharpshooter one person turret armed with a Northrop Grumman, Armament Systems stabilised 25mm M242 dual feed cannon and a 7.62mm coaxial MG while the Armoured Infantry Fighting Vehicle has South African Denel Land Systems LCT 30 two person turret armed with a stabilised 30mm GI-30 dual feed cannon and 7.62mm coaxial MG.

Chain guns The now Northrop Grumman, Armament Systems ‘Chain Gun’ family of weapons are by far the most widely deployed of any medium calibre cannon in the West Dzirhan Mahadzir

are standardising on the CTAI 40mm Cased Telescoped Armament System (CTAT). CTAI is a joint venture company between Nexter Systems of France and BAE Systems of the UK with the main weapon production facility at Bourges in France, but ammunition production is undertaken in both countries. Two British Army platforms are being armed with the 40mm CTAS which are the General Dynamics Land Systems UK Ajax reconnaissance vehicle and the Lockheed Martin UK Warrior Capability Sustainment Programme (WCSP). In both cases the weapon is installed in a two person turret which is also armed with a 7.62mm co-axial machine gun (MG) and in both cases the 40mm CTAS and 7.62mm MG is provided as Government Furnished Equipment (GFE) as it the refurbished 7.62mm MG. The one French Army platform fitted with 40mm CTAS is the Nexter/Arquus Jaguar (6x6) reconnaissance vehicle which is the replacement for the currently deployed AMX-10RCR (105mm) and Sagaie (90mm) 6x6 armoured cars. The 40mm CTAS can fire a complete family of ammunition including APFSDS-T, Kinetic Energy Airburst (KEAB), General Purpose Round – AirburstTracer (GPR-AB-T), General Purpose Round – Point Detonating – Tracer (GPRPD-T), General Purpose Round Kinetic Energy – Tracer (GPR-KE-T) and associated training rounds. The Nexter 25mm Model 811 dual feed cannon is still being marketed by the company and this is already installed in 520 VBCI (8x8) deployed by the French Army. Export sales of the 25mm M811 have been made to Singapore for the AMX-10P Marines amphibious vehicle and Turkey for some of the FNSS Savunma Sistemleri Turkish Infantry Fighting Vehicle (TIFV). The Rheinmetall Marder 1 IFV has been in service with the German Army

l and warfare

AV8 IFV 25 variant (front) with Sharpshooter turret with 25mm cannon and AFV 30 variant (back) with Denel LCT 30 turret with 30mm cannon during a firepower demonstration at Gemas camp.

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land

For the US Army’s Next Generation Combat Vehicle (NGCV) the company is developing, in co-operation with the US Army the 50mm XM913 which is based on their proven Bushmaster III 35/50 mm weapon. For this weapon the company is developing a family of 50mm ammunition which will include armour penetrating, high explosive and a programmable ABM. As previously mentioned the 30mm 2A42 and to a lesser extent the 30mm 2A72 are the standard Russian medium calibre weapon, but Russi has developed a 57mm calibre weapon which is expected to be deployed in the future. This has been shown in a number of applications including the AU-220M for trials purposes this has been fitted to a BMP-3 IFV and T-15 heavy IFV platform.

Anti-tank missiles To enable targets to be engaged beyond range of the main armament of IFV, some platforms are also armed with ATM. The US Army BAE Systems M2 Bradley, IFV for example, has a pod of two Raytheon TOW ATM installed on the left side enabling targets to be engaged out to a range of 3,750m, with more recent TOW versions having a longer range. The German Marder 1 series IFV had a pintle mounted MBDA MILAN ATM with a maximum range of 2,000m but this is now being replaced by the Eurospike LR ATM which is called the MELLS by the German Army.

Northrop Grumman, Armament Systems

and many other parts of the world. By March 2020 total ‘Chain Gun’ production was rapidly approaching 20,000 weapons, in all calibres, for the home and export markets for air, land and sea applications. These include the 25mm M242, 30mm M230 (for Apache attack helicopter), 30mm MK44, 35mm Bushmaster III, 50 XM913 and 7.62mm MK52. The most widely used is the 25mm M242 dual feed cannon which is installed in the US Army Bradley IFV, US Marine Corps LAV (8x8), Canadian Light Armour Vehicle (8x8) as well as many export customers. Export customers have moved to the 30mm MK44 dual feed cannon and so far well over 20 countries have adopted this for a variety of applications with typical examples being the Bionix II deployed by Singapore and CV9030 deployed by Finland, Norway and Switzerland and Poland for their locally built Patria Armoured Modular Vehicle (AMV) called the Rosomak (Wolverine). To meet a US Army Urgent Needs Requirement a batch of 83 production General Dynamics Land Systems Stryker LAV (8x8) have been fitted with a Norwegian Kongsberg MCT RCT armed with an 30mm XM813 dual feed cannon that in addition to firing conventional natures of ammunition can also fire the 30mm MK310 Programmable ABM round. This version is called the Dragoon and is only deployed in Europe.

The Northrop Grumman, Armament Systems, family of Chain Guns includes, from top to bottom M242 25 x 137mm, M230 30 x 113mm, MK44 can be chambered to fire 30 x 173mm or 40 x 180mm with the latest weapon being the XM913 50 x 228mm

| Asian Military Review |

Patria

warfare

Patria AMV XP (8x8) fitted with Kongsberg Remote Controlled Turret armed with 30mm cannon and 7.62mm co-axial MG. Mounted on the roof is a Kongsberg Protector RWS armed wth 12.7mm MG and a Javelin ATM

The latest French Jaguar (6x6) has a pod of two MBDA MMP ATGM in the right side of the turret which are raised prior to being launched and enable targets to be engaged at a range of some 4,000m. The standard infantry version of the MMP has been already been deployed by the French Army as the replacement for the MILAN ATM. The Russian Army fitted pintle mounted ATM to its BMP-2 IFV while the BMP-3 IFV has a two person turret armed with a 100mm 2A70 gun which can also fire a laser guided projectile (LGP) and this also has a 30mm 2A72 co-axial dual feed cannon and a 7.62mm co-axial MG. The United Arab Emirates deploy a large number of BMP-3 IFV and some of these turrets have been installed on a batch of Patria Armoured Modular Vehicle 8x8L which still retains its amphibious capabilities. The latest Russian T-15 heavy IFV has the same turret as that fitted to new Bumerang (8x8) IFV which in addition to being armed with 30mm 2A42 dual feed cannon and 7.62mm co-axial MG also has a pod of two Kornet laser guided ATM ether side. Early ATM had a single highexplosive anti-tank (HEAT) warhead but latest models have a tandem HEAT warhead to neutralise threat targets fitted with explosive reactive armour (ERA) but for some ATGW alternative warheads are available including high-explosive fragmentation and thermobaric. AMR

1 - 3 SEPTEMBER 2020

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Network and connect with Army, the Australian Defence Force, industry and government at the premier land forces exposition for Australia and the Indo-Asia-Pacic region. LAND FORCES 2020 will highlight defence capability and strategy and showcase platforms, equipment, support and technologies. l Key Australian Army, Australian Defence Force, government and industry conferences and briengs l International defence, government, industry and academic delegations l Comprehensive industry exhibition Don’t miss this opportunity to network and connect with key thought leaders through this established, world-class biennial exposition.

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technology s p o t l i g h t

AI CUTS THE CLUTTER Artificial Intelligence is helping to assist the collection and analysis of SIGINT on and off the battlefield in an increasingly crowded electromagnetic spectrum.

Thomas Withington

by Thomas Withington

he term Artificial Intelligence, AI for short, gets thrown around with merry abandon. Scarcely a day goes by sans blood-curdling warnings on how AI risks making humans superfluous or conversely how we should welcome the benefits it may bring. Polemics aside AI is changing the way that humans process data, and in the Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) domain it could be exactly the right technology at exactly the right moment. This topic was under lively discussion at this year’s Embedded Tech Trends conference held in late January in Atlanta, Georgia, and organised by the VITA open systems architecture advocacy organisation. To understand AI’s applicability to SIGINT we need to understand AI. The Oxford English Dictionary defines artificial intelligence as “the theory and development of computer systems able to perform tasks normally requiring human intelligence.” James Kilgallen, president and founder of COMINT Consulting, says that the central tenet of AI is to “lighten human workload and improve task accuracy.”

Spectrum Growth Lightening the load and improving task accuracy are two vital contributions AI could make to SIGINT. The sheer weight of SIGINT data is increasing exponentially. This has been witnessed in the Asia-Pacific region since the start of this century and shows no signs of abating. The electromagnetic spectrum is increasingly inundated by the cellular and wireless networks needed to keep people and businesses connected. Speaking during the Association of Old Crows’ 2019 Electronic Warfare Asia conference and exhibition in Singapore Dr. Hubert Piontek, Hensoldt’s head of sales for spectrum dominance and airborne systems, warned delegates that regional demands for commercial and consumer connectivity could see requirements

The advent of 5G communications poses challenges for SIGINT professionals given the expected saturation of the electromagnetic spectrum, potentially in wavebands used by radars and tactical radios.

| Asian Military Review |

Thomas Withington

technology

s p o t l i g h t

Military radar engineers design their systems to emitter the lowest levels of power possible for them to perform their tasks so as to hide radar transmissions as deeply in the ether as possible.

for at least 19 gigahertz/GHz worth of bandwidth to satisfy these in the short term, with the risk that these demands could rise to 70GHz of bandwidth. Military use of the electromagnetic spectrum will grow in the Asia-Pacific hand-in-hand with the uptake expected in the civilian sphere: The demand for armoured vehicles in the region could see over 13,500 platforms being acquired between 2020 and 2030 according to publicly available figures. Likewise the regional demand for new naval vessels could see a total of 251 warships being acquired over the same timeframe with a similarly strong demand for over 280 new combat aircraft. All of these platforms will need radios, and the warships and combat aircraft will need

radars. Radars and radios emit with their transmissions forming the Electronic and Communications Intelligence (ELINT/ COMINT) which is grist to the mill for SIGINT practitioners.

SIGINT Collecting ELINT and COMINT allows SIGINT experts to identify and localise hostile and friendly platforms, troops and military installations using their RF (Radio Frequency) transmissions. Like a tabloid journalist ferreting through the detritus of a B-list celebrityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s trash can, radar and radio emissions yield a trove of information. Ships or aircraft can be identified based upon their radar emissions with the characteristics of these transmissions used to identify the type

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of radar and hence the platform it may equip. Analysing the radar transmissions will also identify the mode the radar is using: Is it performing a general search of its environment, or is it illuminating a specific target, the latter of which could be construed as a belligerent act? ELINT will also reveal the location of the platform providing information on whether a ship or aircraft is heading towards national airspace, something that could also be construed as a hostile act. Analysing COMINT pays similar dividends. On the battlefield, collecting COMINT on opposing forces can reveal their location. It maybe possible to break the encryption used by hostile communications to collect valuable intelligence. Conversely, a sudden upsurge in communications may reveal that the enemy is repositioning to attack. It is thus clear that collecting COMINT and ELINT becomes paramount to understanding an enemyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s intentions. The problem for SIGINT professionals not only in the Asia-Pacific, but globally, is that they will have to collect signals of interest in an increasingly deluged spectrum which risks drowning out the military emitters from their civilian counterparts. This is further complicated by two additional factors, namely the advent of so-called fifth-generation (5G) wireless communications, and the efforts of military radar and tactical radio engineers to ensure that the transmissions of their products become ever more difficult to detect. 5G is a series of wireless communications protocols being implemented globally. These protocols will greatly increase the amount of data carried by wireless networks. As a comparison an existing fourth-generation smartphone can handle between 15 megabits-per-second (mbps) and 45mbps of data. This could increase to between 150mbps and 200mbps for 5G systems. To allow such wideband communications 5G will need to migrate to wavebands not traditionally associated with wireless communications. This risks encroaching on frequencies traditionally used by the military. An array of wavebands is mooted for 5G including 2.4GHz to 4.2GHz, although frequencies of 24GHz upwards have been proposed. The 2.4GHz to 4.2GHz waveband captures frequencies routinely used by some S-band (2.3GHz to 2.5GHz/2.7GHz to 3.7GHz) naval surveillance and groundbased air surveillance radars. While 5G

technology

Harris

s p o t l i g h t

Military communications engineers take strenuous efforts to shield their wares from discovery. Frequency hopping is a standard technique, which is also used by radars, applied to this end.

a Reptile at full volume. The listener can no longer hear Ms. Jones as her song is now being drowned out by the band. The sound of Ms. Jones’ performance is still there as the strings on her guitar are being plucked causing them to vibrate, disturb the air and produce sound. Yet the sound

US DOD

communications will not necessarily encroach upon S-band in all cases, it could flood the ether with more signals which have to be analysed and eliminated as irrelevant by SIGINT operatives. Using wavebands of 24GHz and above could place some 5G protocols squarely in K-band (24.05GHz to 24.25GHz) which is routinely used for fire control radars, and missile guidance radars on account of the high precision provided by its very short wavelengths.

being produced by Motorhead is more powerful and crowds out the former. In SIGINT, the morass of signals in the ether can be thought of as Motorhead, with the signal of interest produced by the radar being Norah Jones. The task of the SIGINT professional is to detect and isolate the weak radar signal from the prevailing electromagnetic noise. Frequency hopping is another tool used to mask radar and radio signals. Transmissions skip in a pseudo-random sequence across a particular waveband thousands of times a second to prevent SIGINT collectors from detecting a stream of transmissions which can then be used to identify and locate a specific emitter. Like a newspaper article torn into a thousand pieces, the vexing task is to gather all of the tiny bits of paper, and reassemble the words into a coherent order to reconstruct the article: “AI can interpret these RF signal changes much more speedily augmenting the abilities of human operators,” says Nigel Forrester, director of business development at Concurrent Technologies. It is sifting through this deluge of electromagnetic noise where AI could pay dividends. As a written statement supplied to AMR by CRFS notes: “The collection phase is the most straightforward operation that can be automated … by automating the

RADAR DESIGN Meanwhile, radar designers continue to take steps to lessen the chances of signal detection by reducing the transmission power of their equipment as much as possible. This helps ensure that the radar’s transmissions still hit targets but will be difficult to detect against the background electromagnetic noise. This can be explained with the following analogy: Imagine a person blindfolded standing at the back of a concert hall. In front of them jazz chanteuse and queen of dinner party background music Norah Jones takes to the stage. She begins performing her soft ballad Don’t Know Why. The person in the concert hall can clearly hear, but not see, Ms. Jones. A few minutes later, heavy metal legends Motorhead, acknowledged to have been one of the loudest bands in the world and unsuitable for dinner parties, also take to the stage and begin playing their rock anthem Love Me Like

There are expectations within the EW domain that SIGINT and electronic attack specialisations may merge in the future, increasingly enshrining both jobs within one profession. AI could help with the increase in workload that this may herald.

| Asian Military Review |

technology

US DOD

s p o t l i g h t

AI is already assisting some SIGINT collection efforts, particularly in the COMINT domain. Its involvement in AI is likely to only increase in the coming years.

signals collection process, the SIGINT operator spends less time looking for signals and more time acting against them.” Dr. Karen Haigh, Mercury System’ chief fellow technologist says that “AI can provide the initial recognition up front for the SIGINT operator, it can help identify a signal at speeds which are beyond humans.”

PROGRESSIVE LEARNING AI-based SIGINT systems may be able to ‘learn’ the prevailing electromagnetic environment by observing it over a prolonged period: An Electronic Support Measures (ESMs) fitted to a maritime patrol aircraft which flies across the same coastline at roughly the same time each week will be able to develop a picture of the usual day-to-day electromagnetic activity in that part of the world. It will note the usual marine radio and coastal cellphone traffic, along with the usual emissions from civilian marine navigation radars on ferries, fishing boats and cargo vessels. The destroyer which one day sails through international waters close to this coastline will suddenly stick out like the proverbial sore thumb as its radar and radio emissions will be distinct from the prevailing electromagnetic pattern of life. AI algorithms embedded in ESMs could be used to learn the environment, filter out extraneous clutter and isolate the signal of interest all with little or no intervention from the operative. Using

“AI in processes that lend themselves to automation and more environmental selfawareness offer the highest rewards with the least risk while AI as a tool for SIGINT matures,” argues Kilgallen. AI is already employed in some electronic warfare applications. Kilgallen says that his company uses “AI techniques for the precision classification and identification of transmitting equipment” in their COMINT systems: “These feed a more detailed intelligence or situational picture, which in turn leads to more accurate threat assessment.” Yet there are risks: “AI-based inference does not generate 100 percent perfect results” warns Forrester, “accuracy depends on the quality of the original data” used to train the AI element of the SIGINT system. Starting off with biased data and a lack of data diversity if all data is drawn from a single source can mean “that your results become warped,” Dr. Haigh advises. The data that the AI will learn from needs to be “diverse enough to cover all of the conditions you might be experiencing.” A trade-off may also be necessary between the desired accuracy and the desired speed of the AI-enabled SIGINT processing. As CRFS cautions: “Humans are equally capable of producing bad intelligence just as much as machines, but because the process can be automated and executed rapidly, the rate at which these errors are produced increases.” Taking the human completely out

| april/may 2020 |

of the SIGINT collection and analysis loop is not an option, even with the advances AI promises: “As with all AI that is completely autonomous, errors and blind dependency without human judgement where warranted can be especially dangerous,” Kilgallen warns. This is important as some members of the electronic warfare community argue that the distinct skills set hallmarking SIGINT collection and analysis professionals and electronic attack experts will increasingly merge and “in the very near future will very likely be vested in one person,” he continues. The trend to merge these disciplines risks leading to an escalation in workload for the single individual tasked with collecting SIGINT and performing electronic attack. Concerns about data accuracy aside, AI offers potential benefits as “computer-based inference isn’t susceptible to tiredness or other human traits,” remarks Forrester. As CRFS’ statement notes AI “can lighten cognitive loads in operators by tackling repetitive tasks, searching through large datasets, and drawing complex relationships between seemingly disparate data that a human operator would never be able to see.” While AI is assuming growing importance in SIGINT it is still very much at the start of this journey. Given that AI is only as good as the data it receives this presents challenges given the speed with which communications technology, particularly in the civilian wireless domain, evolves. Forrester says that this presents challenges as “to infer the signal classification of a 5G transmitter, the (SIGINT system) must have already been trained using data from existing 5G networks.” Given that 5G is only at the start of its global rollout, as matters stand at present AI-enabled SIGINT systems risk having a paucity of 5G data to work with for the time being. Furthermore AI is moving into opposing domains which could exploit this technology to better hide signals of interest: “AI will also be used by radar and radio engineers which could make for some interesting interactions,” observes Dr. Haigh. We may well be on the dawn of a minor revolution regarding the widespread and routine adoption of AI in SIGINT, but as discussed above, there are challenges ahead: “We expect it will take at least another three and possibly up to five years before AI is common in the majority of SIGINT deployments,” Forrester concludes. AMR

Analyst C o l u m n

MORE THOUGHTS ON SINGAPORE’S F-35B By Ben Ho

here have been more developments in Singapore’s F-35B Lightning II acquisition. Singapore Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen recently said that the city-state was in the “final stages” of buying the Lockheed Martin 5th Generation fighter. When delivered around 2026, the aircraft will be based in the United States for in-depth evaluation and training. Singapore’s defence commentariat has been understandably abuzz over the F-35B decision since news of its procurement broke in January. A commonly raised issue concerns the jet’s short take-off and vertical landing (STOVL) capability. Although I covered this in February’s column, a few additional points are in order. The F-35B’s STOVL capability means that the potential for dispersing fighters from regular airstrips and deploying them from austere ones is greatly multiplied. It is worth noting that during Exercise Torrent in 2016, the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) deployed its F-15s and F-16s from Lim Chu Kang Road, which is a long stretch of road outside the main city near Tengah Air Base. During this exercise, road fixtures like bus stops and traffic lights were removed, and in their place, temporary airfield lights and other installations for runway operations were set up. All these occurred within 48 hours, and a 2.5 kilometre-long temporary airstrip was birthed. The F-35B’s STOVL capability means that it will be able to utilise even shorter roads as makeshift runways, being able to take-off from distances as short as 170

metres. A true vertical take-off is however something rarely carried out except during in-extremis conditions because it severely reduces the amount of fuel and/ or ordnance the aircraft can carry. Also, the typical weapons load of an F-35B is only 83 percent (or about 1,400 kilograms less) of a conventional take-off/landing ‘A’ variant. Moreover, the technical complexity of the F-35B means that there will be a premium placed on maintenance, which is a major consideration for RSAF planners to ponder when drawing up the austere-base concept of operations for the aircraft. Another salient point about Singapore’s small F-35 purchase (an initial order of only four planes with an option for another eight) is that it clearly manifests the city-state’s gradualist and evolutionary approach towards defence acquisition. Singapore’s modus operandi in this regard has usually been this: make a limited purchase, slowly ease in the capability while fastidiously assessing its effectiveness and level of integration. Only when the F-35B has been truly bedded into the RSAF/Singapore Armed Forces edifice would another purchase be considered. In contrast, Singapore’s first buy of the F-15 in 2005 was much larger (12 planes with an option for eight more), but the Eagle had an enviable decadeslong operational record by then. The same cannot be said of the F-35 at this stage, given that the first F-35B Squadron to achieve Initial Operational Capability (IOC) was achieved in 2015 with the first F-35A deployment into Europe in

| Asian Military Review |

2017. The F-35’s teething problems are finally being sorted out but this lack of a track record may be key in explaining Singapore’s cautious F-35 purchase. Going forward, the RSAF is likely to remain with the ‘B’ variant of the Lightning II although there would be milage in considering the cheaper, more capable, and technically less complex ‘A’ variant in future procurement plans. After all, the current price tag of an F-35A is some $90 million and this compares favourably to the $115 million of its STOVL brethren. Besides a larger payload as mentioned earlier, with a combat radius of 590 nautical miles, the F-35A can also strike targets further out compared to the ‘B’ variant (450nm). It is therefore conceivable that the F-35A could be in RSAF service one day, although arguably well into the 2030s and beyond. By then, the cost of the F-35 should have gone down significantly and its problems rectified. That said, replacing the entire RSAF F-16 fleet (three squadrons of 60 planes) with an equal number of F-35s would amount to a prodigious amount of defence dollars. One way around this would be to accept having a smaller F-35 force supplemented with unmanned combat air vehicles (UCAV) following Australia’s ‘loyal wingman’ concept. While the concept is still in its infancy, RSAF chieftains might do well to look into it for their long-term planning. And no, UCAVs will not entirely replace manned aircraft in the future but their importance as supporting actors should not be undervalued. AMR

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