Verktækni - Tímarit Verkfræðingafélags Íslands 1.tbl. 25.árg. 2019. by Verkfræðingafélag Íslands

VERKTÆKNI

ICELANDIC JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING

TÍMARIT VFÍ 1. TBL. 25. ÁRG. 2019

Verkfræðingafélag Íslands

01/2019

Verktækni - Tímarit Verkfræðingafélags Íslands Icelandic Journal of Engineering Efnisyfirlit 5

Áhrif loftslagsbreytinga á vatnsveitur og vatnsgæði á Íslandi. - Áhættuþættir og aðgerðir. María J. Gunnarsdóttir, Sigurður Magnús Garðarsson, Hrund Ó. Andradóttir, Alfreð Schiöth.

Vendikennsla bætir árangur nemenda á lokaprófi í fyrsta árs verkfræðinámskeiði. Guðmundur V. Oddsson, Rúnar Unnþórsson.

Fýsileiki virkjunar sólarorku á norðurslóðum: Reynsla af sólarpanelum IKEA á Íslandi. Sindri Þrastarson, Björn Marteinsson, Hrund Ólöf Andradóttir.

The Evolution of Project Management in Iceland: The Path to a Profession. (Paper 1 of 3 in a series on the history, status and future of project management in Iceland). Helgi Þór Ingason, Þórður Víkingur Friðgeirsson, Haukur Ingi Jónasson.

Project Management in Iceland: Current and Future Importance of Project Management within the Icelandic Economy. (Paper 2 of 3 in a series on the history, status and future of project management in Iceland. Þórður Víkingur Friðgeirsson, Helgi Þór Ingason, Haukur Ingi Jónasson.

Project Management in Iceland and Beyond: Expected Future Trends for Project Management and the Project Management Profession. (Paper 3 of 3 in a series on the history, status and future of project management in Iceland). Helgi Þór Ingason, Þórður Víkingur Friðgeirsson, Haukur Ingi Jónasson.

Ritnefnd V E R K TÆ K N I

Dr. Bjarni Bessason, ritstjóri, Háskóli Íslands. Dr. Kristinn Andersen, Háskóli Íslands. Dr. Helgi Þór Ingason, Háskólinn í Reykjavík. Dr. Marís S. Guðjónsdóttir, Háskólinn í Reykjavík. Ritstjórnarfulltrúi: Sigrún S. Hafstein, sigrun@verktaekni.is

Útgefandi: Verkfræðingafélags Íslands – Engjateigi 9 – 105 Reykjavík. Útgefandi áskilur sér rétt til að birta og geyma efni blaðsins á rafrænu formi, svo sem á netinu. Leyfilegt er að birta efni úr Verktækni ef heimildar er getið.

Áhrif loftlagsbreytinga á vatnsveitur og vatnsgæði á Íslandi – áhættuþættir og aðgerðir María J. Gunnarsdóttira, Sigurður Magnús Garðarssona, Hrund Ó. Andradóttira og Alfreð Schiöthb aVatnaverkfræðistofa,

Umhverfis- og byggingarverkfræði, Háskóli Íslands, Hjarðarhaga 6, 107

Reykjavík. bHeilbrigðiseftirlit Norðurlands eystra. Fyrirspurnir: María J. Gunnarsdóttir mariag@hi.is Greinin barst 12. september 2019. Samþykkt til birtingar 18. desember 2019.

Ágrip Loftlagsbreytingar munu hafa áhrif á vatnsveitur og vatnsgæði með ýmsum hætti. Það eru fyrst og fremst þrír veðurtengdir þættir sem hafa áhrif: hærri lofthiti; hækkun á sjávarstöðu; og svæðisbundnar árstíðarbundnar breytingar á úrkomu í bæði magni og ákafa. Í þessari rannsókn voru rýndar erlendar og íslenskar greinar og skýrslur um áhrif loftslagsbreytinga á vatnsauðlindina með áherslu á norðurslóðir. Gerð var greining á ýmsum áhættuþáttum er varðar gæði neysluvatns með greiningu á gögnum úr reglulegu eftirliti heilbrigðiseftirlita landsins með vatnsveitum og vatnsgæðum. Einnig var gert gróft hættumat á að skriðuföll eða flóð eyðilegðu vatnsból á eftirlitssvæði Heilbrigðiseftirlits Norðurlands eystra. Helstu niðurstöðurnar eru þær að loftlagsbreytingar auka hættu á truflun á rekstri vatnsveitna og á mengun neysluvatns. Á eftirlitssvæði Norðurlands eystra eru meira en helmingur vatnsbóla í hættu á skemmdum vegna skriðufalla og á 5% vatnsbóla er skriðuhættan mikil, en flóðahætta er lítil á öllu svæðinu. Hættan er mjög mismunandi eftir landssvæðum og er almennt séð meiri hjá minni vatnsveitum. Í lokin eru settar fram tillögur byggðar á greiningunni um nauðsynlegar aðgerðir til að bregðast við áhættuþáttunum. Lykilorð: Loftlagsbreytingar, vatnsveitur, neysluvatngæði, skriðuhætta, áhættugreining.

Abstract Climate change is expected to have impact on water supply and drinking water quality in Iceland. Foremost there are three influential weather-related factors; increase in temperature; rise in sea level; and seasonal and regional change in precipitation in both quantity and intensity. In this study international and local reports and articles were analyzed for expected impact on the water resource with emphasis on the northern and the arctic region. Water quality risk factors were analyzed based on surveillance data of the water supplies from the Local Competent Authorities. Preliminary risk assessment of landslides and flooding was performed in one surveillance area in northern Iceland. The results show that climate change has impact on water supply and drinking water quality and in one surveillance area more than half of water intakes are in risk of landslides and thereof 5% sever risk, but few had a risk of flooding. The risk is different between areas in Iceland and the risk is also generally higher at small water supplies. Finally, some preventive actions based on the analysis are set forth. Keywords: Climate change, water supply, drinking water quality, landslides, risk assessment. 5

Inngangur Hitastig á jörðinni hefur hækkað um 1°C síðan fyrir iðnbyltinguna og mun líklega ná 1.5°C hækkun 2030 til 2052 ef loftslagsbreytingar halda áfram á sama hraða samkvæmt niðurstöðum Milliríkjanefndar Sameinuðu þjóðanna um loftslagsmál (IPCC, 2018). Loftslagsbreytingar geta haft áhrif á lýðheilsu með ýmsum hætti, m.a. valdið aukingu á vatnsbornum hópsýkingum (IPCC 2014, IPCC 2018, Roffey o.fl., 2014). Hreint neysluvatn er undirstaða góðrar lýðheilsu. Sameinuðu þjóðirnar samþykktu árið 2010 að rétturinn til aðgengis að heilnæmu og nægu vatni væru mannréttindi og hreint vatn væri forsenda þess að geta lifað mannsæmandi lífi (Resolution/64/292). Eitt af af sautján heimsmarkmiðum Sameinuðu þjóðanna frá 2015, markmið nr. 6, segir að tryggja eigi aðgengi allra að hreinu vatni fyrir árið 2030 (Resolution/71/313). Mörg önnur markmið varða heilnæmi vatns eins og nr. 3 um heilsu og vellíðan þar sem fækka á veikindum m.a. vegna mengaðs vatns. Tilskipun Evrópusambandsins um neysluvatn frá 1998 er nú til endurskoðunar m.a. til að uppfylla heimsmarkmiðin. Til að minnka kolefnisfótspor neysluvatns, og sporna við loftslagsbreytingum, er m.a. stefnt að því að minnka notkun flöskuvatns og bæta orðspor og aðgengi að kranavatni. Þrír veðurtengdir þættir hafa áhrif á forða og gæði vatnsauðlindarinnar: Hærri lofthiti, hækkun á sjávarstöðu og svæðisbundnar breytingar á úrkomu bæði í magni og ákafa (IPCC, 2014; Jiménez Cisneros o.fl., 2014). Hækkun hitastigs mun leiða til þess að óvenjulegt veðurfar verður algengara, svo sem meiri úrkoma á sumum svæðum sem eykur vatnsforða á meðan á öðrum verða meiri þurrkar og þar með vatnsskortur (IPCCA, 2018; Taylor o.fl., 2012). Veðuröfgar hafa aukist síðan 1950 og það eykur hættu á flóðum og hækkandi hiti minnkar sífrera sem eykur líkur á skriðuföllum í fjalllendi, sem geta m.a. valdið skemmdum á vatnsbólum og mannvirkjum vatnsveitna (Seneviatne o.fl., 2012; Kellerer-Pirklbauer o.fl., 2012). Á norðlægum slóðum er spáð aukinni úrkomu á ársgrundvelli (IPCC, 2018). Í Noregi hefur meðalúrkoma t.a.m. aukist um 20% á síðustu hundrað árum, og ákafir rigningaskúrir og skriðuföll hafa aukist umtalsvert (Hanssen-Bauer o.fl., 2009). Loftslagsbreytingar í norður Finnlandi eru taldar valda minni snjóalögum, bráðnun á sífrera og aukingu í flóðum á vetrum sem er talið geta rýrt vatnsgæði í viðkvæmum vatnshlotum (Okkonen o.fl. 2010). Íslenska reglugerðin um neysluvatns, sem var sett árið 2001 (nr. 536/2001) í samræmi við núgildandi EB tilskipun, er nú til endurskoðunar á vegum Atvinnuvega– og nýsköpunarráðuneytisins. Í dag er lítil þekking innanlands á áhrifum loftlagsbreytinga á vatnsból og veitur. Markmið þessarar rannsóknar var að greina helstu áhættuþætti íslenskra vatnsveitna vegna hnattrænna loftslagsbreytinga og gera tillögur um aðgerðir til að stuðla að áframhaldandi afhendingu heilnæms neysluvatns.

Aðferðarfræði Þessi grein byggir á rýni á skýrslum og greinum um áhrif loftslagsbreytinga. Rýndar voru erlendar greinar um áhrif loftlagsbreytinga á vatnsauðlindina, með áherslu á norðurslóðir þar sem loftslag, aðstæður, tækni og lagaumhverfi er svipað og hér á landi m.a. norrænar skýrslur um áhrif loftslagsbreytinga á vatnsveitur, gæði neysluvatns og aukna hættu á hópsýkingum vegna þeirra. Jafnframt eru rýndar íslenskar skýrslur og greinar. Þær upplýsingar eru heimfærðar upp á rekstur og nýtingu neysluvatns hér á landi. Gögn frá heilbrigðiseftirlitunum tíu, sem framkvæma reglubundna úttektir og taka sýni í samræmi við kröfur neysluvatnsreglugerðarinnar (nr. 536/2001), voru greind. Þar er skráð hvort vatnið er tekið úr borholu, uppsprettu/lind, gröfnum brunni eða er yfirborðsvatn. Einnig er skráð hvort vatnið sé geislað og ástand vatnsbóls er metið sem gott, sæmilegt eða lélegt. Heilbrigðiseftirlitin hafa ekki samræmdar leiðbeiningar um það mat sem gerir niðurstöður ónákvæmar. Örverugreiningar á sýnum eru gerðar hjá rannsóknastofunum Matís ohf, ProMat Akureyri ehf og Sýni ehf. Í samræmi við kröfur reglugerðarinnar er 6

mældur heildargerlafjöldi við 22°C og eru leyfð mörk 100 í ml, kólígerlar og E.coli og þar eru mörkin 0 í 100 ml. Greinist E.coli í sýni er það öruggt merki um saurmengun. Til að fá gróft mat á umfang áhrifanna var gagna aflað frá Heilbrigðiseftirliti Norðurlands eystra (HNE) þar sem vatnsból eru mörg hver í fjallshlíð og sérstaklega í skriðuhættu vegna hárra fjalla á Tröllaskaga, í Dalsmynni, Fnjóskadal, Ljósavatnsskarði og Köldukinn. Skriðuhætta og flóðahætta var metin gróflega sem lítil, meðal eða mikil eftir aðstæðum; hæð og halla fjalla, jarðvegsþekju, nálægðar við straumvötn og sögu. Tafla 1 sýnir fjölda vatnsveitna, vatnsbóla og fjölda sýna. Tafla 1 Fjöldi vatnsveitna, vatnsbóla og sýna í úrtaki Stærð Úrtak fyrir áhættuþætti Úrtak HNE fyrir áhættuþætti

Fjöldi vatnsveitna

Fjöldi vatnsbóla*

Fjöldi sýna

Fleiri en 500 íbúar

2396

Færri en 500 íbúar

748

770

2091

Samtals

796

838

7787

Fleiri en 500 íbúar

152

Færri en 500 íbúar

169

173

454

Samtals

172

179

606

*Eitt vatnsból er öll vatnstaka sömu gerðar á vatnstökusvæðinu. Út frá þessum gögnum eru dregnir fram helstu áhættuþættir vatnsveitna sem geta orðið fyrir áhrifum frá loftslagsbreytingum og mögulegar afleiðingar greindar. Að lokum voru gerðar tillögur um hvernig stjórnvöld og vatnsveitur geta brugðist við þessum áskorunum til að tryggja vatnsafhendingu og vatnsgæði.

Niðurstöður og umræður Vatnsveitur á Íslandi Hér á landi eru um 800 eftirlitsskyldar1 vatnsveitur á skrá 2012, 48 þjóna fleirum en 500 manns en hinar eru minni og litlar vatnsveitar sem þjóna fáum með fasta búsetu en oft þjóna þær mörgum ferðamönnum og/eða stórum sumarhúsasvæðum (Gunnarsdóttir o.fl., 2015a; 2015b). Vatnsveitur sem þjóna fleirum en 500 eru flestar í eigu sveitarfélaga meðan þær minni eru í einkaeigu. Að lokum eru ótaldar litlar einkavatnsveitur sem ekki eru eftirlitsskyldar og þjóna fáum húsum eða sumarhúsum, en vatnsgæði og fjöldi þeirra er óþekktur. Neysluvatn er skilgreint sem matvæli í íslenskum lögum og vatnsveitur því sem matvælafyrirtæki (lög um matvæli nr. 93/1995). Það þarf hreint vatn í flesta starfsemi, þar með talið matvælaframleiðslu, og því eru vatnsveitur mikilvægustu matvælafyrirtæki á hverjum stað. Neysluvatn á Íslandi er að stærstum hluta grunnvatn, eða um 95%, en fátítt er að hafa svo góðan aðgang að grunnvatni. Á Norðurlöndum eru það aðeins Danir og Íslendingar sem geta nýtt sér nær eingöngu grunnvatn sem neysluvatn (Klöve o.fl., 2017). 1

Eftirlitsskyld vatnsveita skv. neysluvatnsreglugerð er vatnsveita sem þjónar 50 manns eða fleirum, eða 20 heimilum/sumarbústöðum, eða þjónar matvælafyrirtækjum.

Talið er að meðalafrennsli á láglendi á Íslandi sé um 400 m3/s og vatnsveitur nýta einungis örfá prósent af þeim forða (Sigurðsson ofl., 1998; Egilsson og Stefánsdóttir, 2014) og eru Íslendingar með vatnsríkustu þjóðum í heimi miðað við höfðatölu skv. samantekt UNESCO (UNESCO-WWAP, 2003). Á nokkrum svæðum á Íslandi þarf að nota yfirborðsvatn, eða áhrifa frá yfirborðsvatni gætir í leysingum eða við mikla úrkomu þar sem jarðlög eru gropin og jarðvegslög þunn. Hið fyrra er aðallega á tertíer svæðunum á Austurlandi og Vestfjörðum og hið síðara er á virku svæðunum frá nútíma (hólósen), þar sem stærstu grunnvatnsgeymar landsins eru. Yfirborðsvatn er meðhöndlað, oftast síað og geislað, en grunnvatn er sjaldan meðhöndlað nema þegar hætta er á áhrifum frá yfirborðsvatni.

Loftslagsbreytingar á Íslandi Vísindanefnd um loftslagsbreytingar hefur gefið út skýrslur um áhrif loftslagsbreytinga á Íslandi (Björnsson o.fl., 2008; Björnsson o.fl., 2018) auk þess sem Egilsson og Stefánsdóttir (2014) skoðuðu álagsþætti á grunnvatn. Talið er líklegt að hér hlýni um 1.3-2.3°C fram að miðbiki aldarinnar og að hlýnunin verði meiri að vetri en að sumri (Björnsson o.fl., 2018). Vísbendingar eru um að hlýnunin verði meiri norðanlands en sunnan og vetrarúrkoma oftar í formi regnskúra en snjókomu sem eykur snjóaleysingar. Með bráðnun jökla eykst afrennsli og sjávarstaða hækkar. Landris vegna breytinga á þyngdarsviði næst jöklum dregur úr hækkun sjávar. Langtímahækkun á sjávarstöðu hér á landi er talin verða um 30-40% af hnattrænni meðalhækkun, minnst á Suðausturlandi þar sem landris er mest. Hækkandi sjávarborð eykur hættuna á sjávarflóðum, en þar sem mælingum á sjávarstöðu er ábótavant á Íslandi liggur ekki fyrir hversu mikil slík flóð geta orðið (Björnsson o.fl., 2018). Einnig eru vísbendingar hér á landi um að úrkomuákefð aukist og þrátt fyrir það geti þurrkadögum einnig fjölgað. Nú þegar hefur dregið úr vorflóðum þar sem árstíðarsveiflan er breytt. Á Íslandi má gera ráð fyrir að grunnvatnsgeymar, sérstaklega á gropnum og lekum svæðum, muni stækka vegna aukinnar úrkomu og leysinga jökla. Sífreri er víða í fjalllendi á Íslandi ofan 800 til 900 m.y.s. og slík fjallasvæði eru um 8% af landinu (Etzelmüller o.fl, 2007). Helstu svæðin nálægt byggð eru norðanlands og austan, á t.d. Tröllaskaga, Flateyjarskaga og Smjörfjöllum og víða eru vatnsból í hlíðum fjalla á þessum svæðum. Einnig eru vatnsból víða í fjallshlíðum í öðrum landshlutum s.s. Vestfjörðum og Austfjörðum. Rekja má skriðuföll til bráðnunar á sífrera í íslensku fjalllendi (Sæmundsson o.fl., 2018; Morina o.fl., 2019).

Greining á áhættuþáttum Veðurfarsbreytingar hafa áhrif á vatnsgæði, áreiðanleika vatnsafhendingar og rekstrarkostnað vatnsveitna. Þær valda breytingu á úrkomumynstri og úrkomuákafa en ákafari rigningaskúrir auka þörf fyrir hreinsun og eftirlit með vatnsgæðum og auka álag á vatnstökumannvirki og tæknibúnað. Miklir rigningaskúrir samfara snjóbráðnun geta valdið flóðum og skriðuföllum í fjalllendi, sem getur leitt til þess að yfirborðsvatn kemst í vatnsból og valdi mengun, sérstaklega ef frágangi vatnsbóla er ábótavant. Og þó vatnsból séu langt frá mannabyggð er alltaf hætta á að fuglar og önnur dýr séu á svæðinu og að saur frá þeim berist í vatnsból, sérstaklega þar sem jarðvegur er gropinn og ef stutt er niður á grunnvatnsborð eins og er víða hér á landi. Sumstaðar eru vatnsbólin í farvegum skriða sem geta þá eyðilagt vatnsbólið. Hér að neðan eru helstu áhættuþættir loftslagsbreytinga á vatnsveitur greindir og fjallað stuttlega um einkenni þeirra: Flóð og hærri sjávarstaða. Aukin tíðni flóða, sérstaklega á láglendi, mun valda því að vatnsból fara oftar á kaf vegna flóða. Hækkandi sjávarstaða mun að sama skapi ógna vatnsgæðum í vatnsbólum sem eru nálægt sjó. Þetta á við t.d. á Reykjanesi þar sem grunnvatnslinsa flýtur ofan á sjó (Egilsson og Stefánsdóttir, 2014).

Í Svíþjóð er gert ráð fyrir að um 6% vatnsbóla séu í hættu að fara undir vatn (Ojala o.fl., 2007). Mikil flóð geta einnig skolað burt brúm sem vatnsleiðslur eru hengdar í og þá hefur það áhrif á vatnsafhendingu. Skriðuföll. Aukin úrkoma og þiðnun sífrera leiðir til meiri hættu á skriðuföllum. Skriðuföll geta eyðilagt vatnsból en slíkir atburðir hafa nú þegar átt sér stað á Íslandi. Sem dæmi má nefna vatnsból Vatnsveitu Djúpavogs í Búlandsdal og vatnsból Vatnsveitu Árskógssands og Hauganes. Í byrjun júlí 2010 urðu mikil skriðuföll í Búlandsdal sem eyðulögðu inntaksmannvirki Vatnsveitu Djúpavogs. Í kjölfarið greindust saurgerlar og kampýlóbakter í neysluvatni. Í lok júní 2014 féll skriða á tvö vatnsból Vatnsveitu Árskógssandi og Hauganesi og yfirborðsvatn blandaðist neysluvatninu. Í kjölfarið greindust saurkólígerlar í öðru vatnsbólinu. Íbúar þurftu sumir að sjóða vatnið í nokkrar vikur. Í sama óveðri féllu aurskriður með miklum aurburði úr fjalli ofan við bæinn að Völlum í Svarfaðardal og eyðilagði vatnsból bæjarins. Leirinn fyllti einnig eldistjörn á bænum og drap allan silunginn sem í henni var (Norðurslóð 38. árgangur 7. tölublað. 2 júlí 2014). Þá skall hurð nær hælum hjá Vatnsveitu Siglufjarðar um svipað leyti og á Árskógssandi þegar stór aurskriða féll um 100 metra frá vatnsbólinu í Hólsdal (RUV 9.7.2014). Yfirfullar skólplagnir. Aukning ákafra rigningaskúra og flóða valda því að frárennslislagnir fyllast. Það skapar mengunarhættu, sérstaklega í einföldum frárennsliskerfum, þ.e. þegar skólp og regnvatn er í sömu lögnum. Minni hætta er þar sem er tvöfalt frárennsliskerfi þar sem skólp og regnvatn er í sitt hvorri pípunni. Alvanalegt er að lagnir leki og sérstaklega á það við þegar vatnslagnir eru orðnar gamlar og lélegar. Hætta skapast þegar þrýstingur fellur í lekum lögnum þá getur mengað vatn úr skólpi komist inn í neysluvatnslagnirnar, og er þetta sérstaklega hættulegt þar sem neysluvatnslagnir og fráveitulagnir eru í sama skurði. Norðmenn hafa metið þessa áhættu í hæsta flokk í áhættumati á áhrifum loftslagsbreytinga á heilnæmi neysluvatns (Helsedirektorated, 2010). Áhættan þar er metin út frá þremur þáttum, aukningu á atburðum eða aðstæðum sem valda hættu, áhrif á heilsu og hversu auðvelt er að fyrirbyggja mengun. Í Noregi eru stærstur hluti dreifikerfis neysluvatns og skólplagna í sama skurði, eins og hér á landi, sem eykur mjög áhættuna. Svipaðar aðstæður eru einnig í Svíþjóð þar sem yfir 80% af slíkum lögnum eru í sama skurði (Roffley o.fl., 2014). Í Noregi er auk þess talin töluverð hætta á að gæði vatnsauðlindarinnar versni en þar vegur upp á móti að talið er auðvelt að fyrirbyggja það með hreinsun á vatni. Í Noregi fær um 90% íbúa neysluvatn úr yfirborðsvatni sem er í meiri hættu að mengast við breytt veðurfar en grunnvatn. Örverur í neysluvatni. Efnamengun er sjaldgæf í íslenskum vatnsveitum (Gunnarsdóttir o.fl., 2016a; 2016b) en örverumengun er algengari, en fyrst og fremst í minni vatnsveitum (mynd 1). Saurmengun mælist í um 5 til 8% sýna frá minni vatnsveitunum í reglubundnu eftirliti. Hærra hlutfall af saurmengun í sýnum hjá minni vatnsveitum skýrist að einhverju leyti af því að minni vatnsveitur fá sjaldnar vatn úr borholum en þær stærri og einnig er viðhaldi frekar ábótavant hjá þeim minni. Almennt er talið að grunnvatn úr borholum sé betur varið fyrir yfirborðsmengun en þar sem vatnið er tekið úr uppsprettum eða gröfnum brunnum. Að öðru óbreyttu þá má búast við að örverur muni aukast í neysluvatni vegna áhrifa loftslagsbreytinga.

14,0%

Heildargerlafjöldi 22°C

12,0%

11,9%

Kólígerlar

10,0%

10,2%

E.coli 7,8%

8,0% 6,0% 4,0%

3,0% 1,2%

2,0%

0,6%

0,0%

4,7%

3,8%

5,2% 5,1%

2,1%

0,1%

>5000

501-5000

50-500

<50

Íbúar á vatnsveitusvæði

Mynd 1 Hlutfall vatnssýna sem uppfylla ekki neysluvatnsreglugerð í fjölda örvera í reglubundnu eftirliti hjá eftirlitsskyldum vatnsveitum á Íslandi 2010-2014 (Gunnarsdóttir o.fl., 2017). Tegund og ástand vatnsbóla. Áhætta vegna loftslagsbreytinga er mismunandi eftir tegund og ástandi vatnsbóla. Búast má við því að vatnsból sem reiða sig á yfirborðsvatn, lindarvatn eða brunnvatn séu viðkvæmari fyrir áhrifum vegna loftslagsbreytinga en borholur. Meiri hluti vatnsbóla á Íslandi reiða sig á vatn sem er viðkvæmt fyrir loftslagsbreytingum, nánar tiltekið 60% vatnsbóla hjá stærri vatnsveitum og 82% hjá minni vatnsveitum (mynd 2). Flest vatnsból hjá minni vatnsveitum eru virkjaðar lindir (58%) og eru um 450 eftirlitsskyldar minni vatnsveitur með slík vatnsból á landinu öllu á meðan lindarsvæði hjá stærri veitum eru 27 talsins.

13%

1% 23%

40%

58%

38% Borholur

18%

Lindir

Brunnar

Yfirborðsvatn

Borholur

Lindir

Brunnar

Yfirborðsvatn

Mynd 2 Tegund vatnsbóla hjá a) 48 stórum vatnsveitum (>500 íbúar) og b) 748 minni vatnsveitum (<500 íbúar). Ástand vatnsbóla er einnig mikilvægur áhættuþáttur þar sem léleg vatnsból mega við minna álagi. Í mati heilbrigðiseftirlita á ástandi 199 vatnsbóla árið 2012 kemur fram að í 11% tilfella eru vatnsból minni vatnsveitna metin léleg á meðan vatnsból stærri vatnsveitna er aldrei metið sem slíkt (mynd 3). Þó er vert að benda á að samræmdar leiðbeiningar eru ekki til fyrir heilbrigðiseftirlitin til að gera slíkt mat og því eru þetta aðeins vísbendingar.

b) 11% 15% 74%

97%

Gott

Sæmilegt

Lélegt

Gott

Sæmilegt

Lélegt

Mynd 3 Ástand vatnsbóla árið 2012 hjá a) 33 stórum vatnsveitum (>500 íbúar), og b) 166 minni vatnsveitum (<500 íbúar). Reglubundnu eftirliti og viðhaldi á geislatækjum Loftslagsbreytingar munu setja meira álag bæði á inntaks og hreinsunarinnviði eins og fram hefur komið. Í lok árs 2017 voru a.m.k. 60 vatnsveitur sem geisla hluta eða allt neysluvatn sem frá þeim fer skv. skráningu heilbrigðiseftirlita. Líklega eru fleiri vatnsveitur með geislun þó það sé ekki skráð hjá viðkomandi heilbrigðiseftirliti. Flestar eftirlitsskyldar vatnsveitur með geislun eru á Vestfjörðum (27), Austurlandi (11), Vesturlandi (8), Norðurlandi vestra (7) og Norðurland eystra (6). Löng reynsla hér á landi af slíkum tækjum er sú að frávik hafi verið algeng þrátt fyrir geislun. Saurmenguð sýni hafa fundist í fjórðungi vatnsveitna sem geisla neysluvatn (þ.e. 15 af 60) á fimm ára tímabili (2010-2014). Þetta gefur til kynna að viðhald og umhirða tækjanna hefur ekki verið sem skyldi. Mikilvægt er að sía vatnið áður en það er geislað þar sem geislun virkar ekki ef vatnið er ekki alveg tært og til að fylgjast með því þarf að mæla grugg. Einnig þurfa tækin reglulegt viðhald og skipta þarf um perur a.m.k. einu sinni á ári. Reglulegt viðhald og eftirlit tækjanna á að vera hluti af innra eftirliti vatnsveitna. Því er enn mikilvægara en áður að vatnsveitur séu með innra eftirlit til að tryggja rétt viðhald kerfanna og fyrirbyggja mengun í öllu kerfinu. Hópsýkingar. Í tengslum við mikla úrkomu og flóð eykst hættan á vatnsbornum hópsýkingum. Sýnt hefur verið fram á aukna hættu á saurmengun með aukningu á úrkomu og einnig er fylgni á milli aukinnar úrkomu og vatnsborinna hópsýkinga (Curriero o.fl., 2001, Jean o.fl., 2006; Taylor o.fl., 2009; Tetzlaff o.fl., 2010). Jafnframt hefur verið sýnt fram á aukna tíðni niðurgangstilfella við hækkandi hitastig en meiri rannsókna er þörf til að greina smitleiðir (Mellor o.fl., 2016). Í rannsókn á 87 vatnsbornum hópsýkingum víða um heim voru 55% í kjölfar mikillar úrkomu (Cann o.fl., 2013). Sænska varnamálastofnunin (Swedish Defence Research Agency) gaf út skýrslu um hættu á örverumengun í neysluvatni vegna loftslagsbreytinga (Roffey o.fl. 2014). Þar segir að búast megi við aukinni úrkomu sem hafi neikvæð áhrif á gæði neysluvatns. Búist er við að aukning verði í vatnsbornum hópsýkingum fyrst og fremst af völdum vírusa og cryptosporidium. Slíkir atburðir hafa t.d. átt sér stað í Svíþjóð eins og árið 2008 yfirfylltist frárennsliskerfið í kjölfar mikilla rigninga og rann út í á þar sem vatnið er tekið fyrir bæinn Lilla Edets. Um 19% af 13 þúsund íbúum bæjarins veiktust, m.a. af nóróveiru (Roffey o.fl., 2014; Ekvall, 2010). Næringar- og varnarefnamengun í neysluvatni. Hitastigshækkun hefur áhrif á örverugróður og eykur hættu á ofauðgun og þörungagróðri. Sýnt hefur verið fram á í Danmörku að miklir regnskúrir auka magn varnarefna í grunnvatni, aðallega Glyphosat (Rosenbom o.fl., 2010). Hækkandi hitastig lengir ræktunartímabil og breytir landbúnaði sem eykur áburðarnotkun og því verður meiri hætta á að 11

næringaefni og varnarefni leki niður í grunnvatnsgeyminn (Staben o.fl., 2015). Þetta á þá helst við hér á landi á landbúnaðarsvæðunum t.d. á Suðurlandi. Styrkur þessara efna í grunnvatni er ekki vel þekktur á þessum svæðum og fáar mælingar á varnarefnum í grunnvatni hafa verið gerðar hér á landi jafnvel þó að mæling á varnarefnum séu ein af þeim mælingum sem á að gera skv. neysluvatnsreglugerð (Gunnarsdóttir o.fl., 2016a; Egilsson og Stefánsdóttir, 2014). Í skýrslu Umhverfis-og auðlindaráðuneytisins (2016) kemur fram að ekki sé notað mikið af varnarefnum í landbúnaði á Íslandi sem er væntanlega skýringin á því að þau eru ekki mæld.

Greining á umfangi áhrifa á Norðurlandi eystra Til að meta mögulegt umfang áhrifa loftslagsbreytinga þá voru gögn frá Heilbrigðiseftirlitssvæði Norðurlands eystra (HNE) greind. Á svæði HNE eru 172 eftirlitsskyldar vatnsveitur með 179 vatnsbólasvæði sem þjóna nær 28 þúsund íbúum svæðisins og á því svæði eru a.m.k. 411 eftirlitsskyld matvælafyrirtæki þ.e. framleiðslufyrirtæki, veitingahús, mötuneyti, mjólkurbú og gistiþjónusta. Vatnsbólin eru fyrst og fremst lindarsvæði (85%). Á eftirlitssvæði HNE voru tekin 606 sýni í reglubundnu eftirlit með vatnsveitum á tímabilinu 2010 til 2014. Frávik í örverum voru 65 talsins og voru hjá 46 vatnsveitum. Flest frávikin (7%) voru í heildargerlafjölda 22°C sem er vísbending um að yfirborðsvatn hafi komist í vatnsból eða óhreinindi í kerfinu (mynd 4a). Hlutfallið er svipað og á landinu öllu eins og kemur fram á mynd 1. Kólígerlar og E. Coli mældust í 31 og 25 sýnum á þessu tímabili. Þeir eru vísbending á saurmengun og þá fyrst og fremst E.coli. Saurmengun mældist hjá 16 vatnsveitum á þessum fimm árum. Þegar orsök frávika eru skoðuð kemur í ljós að stærstur hluti þeirra er mengun í vatnsbóli (75%) en mun færri í dreifkerfi (22%), sjá mynd 4b. Af þessum 49 frávikum vegna mengunar í vatnsbólum urðu 16 vegna þess að yfirborðsvatn barst í vatnsból í kjölfar mikilla rigninga. Auk þess féllu þrjú sýni í öllum þremur eftirlitsþáttum tekin í dreifikerfi hjá Vatnsveitu Árskógssands eftir að skriða eyðilagði vatnsbólið. Í helming tilfella valda þessir veðuratburðir saurmengun í sýnum. Það má leiða að því líkum að þeir staðir sem hafa þessi frávik hafi nú þegar orðið fyrir áhrifum vegna loftslagsbreytinga eða að minnsta kosti muni áhætta í rekstri þessara vatnsveitna aukast að óbreyttu í náinni framtíð.

4% Mengun í vatnsbóli

22%

Mengun í dreifikerfi

Heildargerlafjöldi 22°C

75%

Kólígerlar

Mistök í sýnatöku

E.coli

Mynd 4 a) Frávik í örverum hjá vatnsveitum á svæði Heilbrigðiseftirlits Norðurlands eystra 2010-2014, og b) og orsök frávika (b).

Hætta á að skriða eða flóð skemmi vatnsból var metin sérstaklega á svæði HNE fyrir einstök vatnsból til að fá gróft mat á umfangi áhættunnar. Á sumum svæðum eru vatnsból hátt í fjallshlíðum til að fá sjálfrennsli á bæina og spara þannig rafmagn. Aðgengi að slíkum vatnsbólum er oft erfitt sem gerir viðhald einnig erfitt. Stundum er illmögulegt að koma fyrir girðingum í kringum þau og ef það gert þá eru þær fljótar að falla undan snjóalögum. Vatnsból í fjallshlíðum eru sjaldan skoðuð af heilbrigðiseftirliti og sýni oftast tekin í dreifikerfi. Greining á skriðu- og flóðahættu á svæði HNE leiðir í ljós að skriðuhætta (mikil, meðal eða lítil) er við 53% vatnsbóla eða ríflega helming vatnsbóla og á 5% vatnsbóla er skriðuhættan mikil, en flóðahætta er óveruleg ógn á öllu svæðinu. 96%

100%

80%

60% 46% 40%

31% 17%

20%

1% 0%

0% Engin hætta

Lítil hætta

Meðal hætta Skriðuföll

Mikil hætta

Ekki vitað

Flóð

Mynd 5 Áhættugreining á að skriðuföll og flóð spilli vatnsbólum á eftirlitssvæði Heilbrigðiseftirlits Norðurlands eystra.

Nauðsynlegar aðgerðir til að tryggja gæði neysluvatns Greiningin hér að ofan sýnir að nauðsynlegt er að grípa til aðgerða til að halda neikvæðum áhrifum vegna loftslagsbreytinga á gæði neysluvatns í lágmarki. Flokka má aðgerðirnar annarsvegar á ábyrgð ríkis eða sveitarfélaga og hinsvegar á verksviði vatnsveitna. Það er á ábyrgð vatnsveitna að afhenda heilnæmt neysluvatn en ríkið og sveitarfélög hafa skyldur til að innleiða í lög og reglur og hafa stefnu sem hefur það að markmiði að vernda vatnið og heilnæmi þess, jafnframt því að sjá til að ytra eftirlit sé til staðar. Ríki og sveitarfélög Aðlögun að loftslagsbreytingum. Stjórnvöld þurfa að marka stefnuna og gera aðlögunaráætlun um hvernig eigi að bregðast við breyttum aðstæðum á öllum sviðum, m.a. því sem snýr að neysluvatni og vatnsveitum og taka þá stefnumörkun inn í ákvarðanatöku. Til að styrkja stefnumörkun er nauðsynlegt að auka ýmsar rannsóknir t.d. á flóðahættu, hættu á skriðuföllum, sjávarstöðu og öðrum áhrifum loftlagsbreytinga á vatnsauðlindina, á neysluvatn og gæði þess. Viðbragðsáætlun. Sveitarfélögin, sem bera ábyrgð á eftirliti með neysluvatnsgæðum og vatnsvernd, þurfa að gera áætlun um hvernig vatnsafhendingu skuli háttað á sínu svæði við breyttar aðstæður og gera áhættugreiningu vegna loftslagsbreytinga. Í þeirri áhættugreiningu þarf að meta hættu á saurmengun, 13

skriðuföllum, flóðum og mengun vegna nálægðar við sjó. Almannavarnir sveitarfélaga gera síðan viðbragðsáætlun um hvernig skuli bregðast við slíkum atburðum ásamt því að tryggja aðgengi að varavatnsbólum. Heilbrigðiseftirlit sveitarfélaga á að tryggja að búið sé að skilgreina vatnsverndarsvæði fyrir vatnsból og þar sem það hefur verið gert þarf að endurskoða þau m.t.t. loftslagsbreytinga.

Vatnsveitur Fyrirbyggjandi innra eftirlit. Veiturnar þurfa að meta hættur af völdum loftlagsbreytinga og skipuleggja mótvægisaðgerðir til að vera í stakk búnar til að takast á við slíka atburði. Þetta mat á að vera hluti af kerfisbundnu fyrirbyggjandi innra eftirliti vatnsveitna. Innra eftirlit gerir ráð fyrir áhættugreiningu, sem byggir á líkindum og alvarleika atburða, og síðan úrbótaáætlun til að fyrirbyggja mengun. Í nýrri EB tilskipun um neysluvatn verður að öllum líkindum gerð krafa um, í fyrsta lagi áhættuúttektir á vatnsbólum hjá öllum eftirlitsskyldum vatnsveitum, og í öðru lagi á innra eftirliti hjá þeim vatnsveitum sem þjóna fleirum en 500 íbúum. Slíkt fyrirbyggjandi eftirlit hefur sýnt sig að bæta gæði neysluvatns og rekstur vatnsveitna (Gunnarsdóttir ofl., 2012a, 2012b). Sem fyrirbyggjandi aðgerðir er rétt að skoða hættur á vatnstökusvæðum og bæta þar frágang og hækka inntök ef hætta er á flóði. Skoða staðsetningu dælustöðva og annarra mannvirkja m.t.t. til flóðahættu. Ef grunnvatnsgeymir er illa varinn fyrir ákafri úrkomu þá er nauðsynlegt að auka mælingar á gruggi og örverum. Í áðurnefndri tillögu að nýrri EB tilskipun er gert ráð fyrir reglubundnum mælingum á gruggi hjá öllum eftirlitsskyldum vatnsveitum. Endurskoða þarf innra eftirlit þar sem það er til staðar m.t.t. áhrifa veðurfarsbreytinga og jafnframt gera átak í að koma því á þar sem það hefur ekki verið gert. Nú þegar hafa nær 40% vatnsveitna á Íslandi sem þjóna fleirum en 500 manns sett upp innra eftirlit og þær þjóna um 80% af landsmönnum. En ennþá eru um 770 minni eftirlitsskyldar vatnsveitur þar sem áhættamat á mengun hefur ekki verið framkvæmt og áhættan á vatnsbólinu er eingöngu metin sem gott, sæmilegt eða lélegt ástand vatnsbóls. Áhættuúttekir fyrir minni vatnsból. Vatnaverkfræðistofa Háskóla Íslands í samvinnu við Háskólann í Surrey á Englandi og þrjú heilbrigðiseftirlit, Heilbrigðiseftirlit Kjósasvæðis, Heilbrigðiseftirlit Norðurlands vestra og Heilbrigðiseftirlit Suðurlands, er að vinna að áhættumatsformi fyrir minni vatnsveitur. Það byggir á formi sem hefur verið þróað af Alþjóða heilbrigðismálastofnuninni en er aðlagað að íslenskum aðstæðum. Áhættuúttektir eiga að meta ástand vatnsbóls og hættur á mengun á vatninu. Það byggir á að meta hönnun, viðhald vatnstökumannvirkja og mengunarhættu í nágrenni vatnsbóls. Mælingar á vatnsgæðum. Mikilvægt er að fylgjast vel með gæðum neysluvatns, sérstaklega þar sem hætta er á yfirborðsmengun og þá helst með raunmælingum. Veitur ohf hafa komið upp raunmælingu á örverum á vatni frá nokkrum borholum á Heiðmerkursvæðinu (Guðmundsson, 2019). Það er svonefndur Flow cytometry mælir sem greinir allar örverur í vatni og gefur niðurstöður á 30 mínútna fresti. Aðferðin greinir ekki hverskonar örverur, þ.e. sjúkdómsvaldandi eða skaðlausar er um að ræða en segir til hvort gerlamagn er að aukast í vatninu. Bætt tækni og fljótvirkari mælingar á vatnsgæðum er ein af leiðunum sem stefnt er að í nýrri EB tilskipun. Þörf er á fljótvirkari og nákvæmari greiningu á sjúkdómsvaldandi örverum til að auka öryggi og fyrirbyggja hópsýkingar. DNA tækni hefur verið að fleygja fram og möguleikar á að mæla samtímis margar tegundir af sjúkdómsvaldandi örverum eru að koma fram á sjónarsviðið (Gunnarsdottir et. al, 2019). Mikilvægt er fyrir vatnsveitur að fylgjast vel með á þessu sviði. Viðhald og vatnshreinsun. Nauðsynlegt er því að huga vel að öllum frágangi og viðhaldi vatnstökumannvirkja. Þar sem hætta er á blöndun frá yfirborðsvatni getur verið nauðsynlegt að koma fyrir búnaði 14

til hreinsunar og þegar neysluvatn er síað og geislað þarf að tryggja kerfisbundið viðhald. Nú þegar er löng reynsla hér á landi af slíkum tækjum og eins og áður sagði hafa a.m.k. nær 60 vatnsveitur sett upp geislatæki. En þrátt fyrir það hafa frávik verið algeng þar sem slík tæki eru til staðar. Það þýðir væntanlega að viðhald og umhirða þeirra hefur ekki verið sem skyldi. Það er heldur ekki nægjanlegt að koma sér upp geislun án þess að ráðast að rótum vandans og lagfæra vatnsbólið eða það sem hefur valdið mengun. Varavatnsból. Þar sem vatnsból eru í hættu vegna flóða eða skriðufalla þarf að tryggja aðgengi að varavatnsbóli sem ekki er í slíkri hættu ásamt því að hafa viðbragðsáætlun hvernig megi dreifa vatni í flöskum til að brúa tímabundna stöðvun á öruggri afhendingu. Jafnframt þarf að kortleggja hvar eru viðkvæmir notendur á svæði vatnsveitunnar, t.d. sjúkrastofnanir, skólar og barnaheimili. Endurbætur í dreifikerfi. Í dreifikerfinu getur skapast töluverð hætta við mikið úrhelli þegar frárennslislagnir og vatnslagnir eru í sama skurði, eins og algengt er hér á landi. Vatnsveitur þurfa að þekkja hvar þessi hætta er mest og endurnýja gamlar og lekar lagnir og aðskilja frá skolplögnum á skipulagðan hátt. Samhliða þessu eru fráveitur að vinna að blágrænum ofanvatnslausnum þar sem ofanvatni í þéttbýli er veitt í viðtaka sem veitir vatninu niður í jarðveginn á náttúrlega hátt í stað þess að flóðavatnið fari allt í fráveitulagnir (Ráðgjafastofan Alta, 2016). Sú lausn eykur öryggi neysluvatns og styrkir sjálfbæran vatnabúskap.

Samantekt Greining á áhættuþáttum í rekstri vatnsveitna sýna að loftslagsbreytingar munu auka hættu í rekstri þeirra og geta leitt til neikvæðra áhrifa á gæði neysluvatns. Heilbrigðiseftirlitin, sem hafa eftirlit með vatnsveitum og neysluvatnsgæðum, hafa metið að ástand 11% vatnsbóla sé lélegt. Algengast er að minni vatnsveitur virki lindir við öflun neysluvatns og eru a.m.k. um 480 lindarsvæði í notkun hjá eftirlitsskyldum vatnsveitum. Á sumum svæðum, þar sem aðstæður leyfa, er algengt að virkja lindir upp í fjallshlíð til að fá sjálfrennsli og spara þannig rafmagn. Það skapar ákveðna hættu á að vatnsbólin eyðileggist af völdum skriðufalla. Líklegt er talið að skriðuföll muni aukast hér á landi vegna loftslagsbreytinga og má eiga von á aukningu á slíkum atburðum í kjölfar mikillar úrkomu. Við gróft mat á einu heilbrigðiseftirlitssvæði, Heilbrigðiseftirlit Norðurlands eystra, þar sem háir fjallgarðar og djúpir dalir einkenna vatnstökusvæðin, kom í ljós að yfir helmingur vatnsbóla voru lindir í fjallshlíð þar sem hætta á skriðuföllum var metin lítil til mikil. Hinsvegar voru fá vatnsból á því svæði þar sem talin er hætta á að flóð spilli vatnsbólinu. Þessi hætta er hins vegar mjög mismunandi eftir landsvæðum. Draga má saman nauðsynlegar aðgerðir ríkis, sveitarfélaga og vatnsveitna vegna nýrra og aukinna ógna vegna loftslagsbreytinga í eftirfarandi atriði: Ríki og sveitarfélög • Marka stefnu um hvernig eigi að tryggja neysluvatn og vatnsgæði m.t.t. nýrra áskoranna vegna loftslagsbreytinga. • Auka vöktun og rannsóknir á vatnsauðlindinni. • Hvert sveitarfélag metur áhrif loftlagsbreytinga á vatnsafhendingu í sínu sveitarfélagi. • Almannavarnir sveitarfélaga taki möguleg áhrif af loftslagsbreytingum á neysluvatnsafhendingu inn í sína viðbragðsáætlun. • Heilbrigðiseftirlitin fylgi því eftir að stærri vatnsveitur setji upp innra eftirlit þar sem það hefur ekki verið gert og jafnframt verði gerðar reglulega ytri úttektir. • Heilbrigðiseftirlitin sjái til þess að gerð verði áhættuúttekt á öllum vatnsbólum og taki þar sérstaklega tillit til hættu á skriðuföllum og flóðum.

Vatnsveitur • Endurskoða innra eftirlit m.t.t. loftslagsbreytinga og ef það er ekki til staðar þá koma því á. • Gera áhættuúttektir á öllum vatnsbólum í samvinnu við viðkomandi heilbrigðiseftirlit með tilliti til mengunarhættu og taka þar með í mat á áhrifum frá loftslagsbreytingum s.s. flóðum og skriðuföllum. • Gera endurbætur á vatnsbólum í samræmi við niðurstöður áhættumats. • Hafa reglulegt eftirlit og viðhald á öllum mannvirkjum vatnsveitunnar, s.s. geislunartækjum. • Bæta mælingar og auka rauntímamælingar á vatnsgæðum, sérstaklega þar sem hætta er á yfirborðsmengun. • Mæla notkun á vatni, fylgjast með lekum og endurnýja gamlar lagnir. • Vinna að endurbótum á dreifikerfi og þekkja hvar er brýnust þörf á að endurnýja lagnir, t.d. þar sem lagnir eru í sama skurði og fráveitulagnir. • Huga að sameiningu minni vatnsveitna eins og hagkvæmt þykir og aðstæður leyfa. Það gefur möguleika á að bora eftir neysluvatni sem eykur öryggi.

Þakkir Þessi rannsókn var styrkt af Rannsóknasjóði Háskóla Íslands. Höfundar vilja þakka þeim sem veittu aðstoð við að afla upplýsinga og sérstaklega Steini Oddgeiri Sigurjónssyni heilbrigðisfulltrúa á matvælasviði hjá Heilbrigðiseftirliti Norðurlands eystra. Einnig þakka höfundar ritrýnum fyrir góðar ábendingar.

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Vendikennsla bætir árangur nemenda á lokaprófi í fyrsta árs verkfræðinámskeiði Guðmundur V. Oddssona, Rúnar Unnþórssona. aIðnaðarverkfræði-,

vélaverkfræði- og tölvunarfræðideild, Háskóla Íslands, Hjarðarhaga 2-6, 107

Reykjavík. Fyrirspurnir: Guðmundur V. Oddsson gvo@hi.is Greinin barst 6. ágúst 2019 Samþykkt til birtingar 20. desember 2019

Ágrip Markmið þessarar rannsóknar var að meta hvað þarf til að bæta skilning nemenda á námsefni sem kennt er í fyrsta árs verkfræðinámskeiði. Tvær vendikennsluaðferðir voru bornar saman við hefðbundna kennslu – byggða á fyrirlestrum. Samanburðurinn var byggður á árangri nemenda í skriflegu lokaprófi og ánægju nemenda með námskeiðið út frá árlegu kennslumati námskeiðsins. Vendikennslan fór fram árin 2015 og 2016 og voru niðurstöðurnar bornar saman við viðmið fyrir 10 ára hefðbundna kennslu sem sett voru í annarri rannsókn. Fyrirkomulag vendikennslunnar var þannig að fyrirlestrar voru teknir upp með skjáupptökuhugbúnaði sem tók upp bæði rödd kennara og aðgerðir hans á skjánum. Með tilkomu upptakanna gátu nemendur horft á fyrirlestra eftir hentugleika. Fyrirlestrarnir voru haldnir af sama kennara, námsefnið var það sama og einnig kennslubókin. Vendikennslan árið 2015 fór fram þannig að fyrirlestratímar voru nýttir í að svara spurningum nemenda úr fyrirlestrum vikunnar. Árið 2016 var fyrirkomulaginu breytt þannig að fyrirlestratímarnir voru nýttir til að fara yfir valin hugtök og aðferðir auk þess að æfa nemendur í að beita námsefninu. Niðurstöður sýna að það er jákvæð fylgni milli vendikennslu og meðalárangurs á lokaprófi og sterk vísbending um að nemendum sem æfa sig í að beita námsefninu í fyrirlestratíma gangi betur á lokaprófi. Lykilorð: einkunnir; nemendamat; vendikennsla; spegluð kennsla.

Abstract The aim of this study was to evaluate what is needed to improve students' understanding of the material taught in a first-year engineering course. Two flipped classroom methods were compared to traditional teaching method – based on lectures. The comparison was based on the students' achievements in the written final exam and student satisfaction with the course based on the annual teaching evaluation. The flipped classroom took place in 2015 and 2016, and the results were compared with a baseline for 10-year traditional teaching set in another study. The course teaching arrangement was such that lectures were recorded using screen capture software that recorded both the voice of the teacher and his actions on the screen. The recordings enabled the students to watch the lectures at a time convenient to them. The lectures were given by the same teacher, the study material was the same and also the textbook. The flipped classroom in 2015 was arranged so that normal lecture hours were used to answer students' questions from the week‘s recorded lectures. In 2016, the arrangement was changed so that lecture hours were used to review selected concepts and methods as well as train students to apply the study material. The results show that there is a positive correlation between

flipped classroom and the average performance of a final exam, and a strong indication that students who practice the course material during lecture hours will have improved exam grades. Keywords: grades, student ratings, flipped classroom, reversed teaching.

Inngangur Rannsóknin sem kynnt er í þessari grein er framhald rannsóknar höfunda þar sem samhengi milli verkefnaálags og prófseinkunna í fyrsta árs verkfræðinámskeiði var kannað (Unnthorsson & Oddsson, 2015). Sú rannsókn náði yfir 10 ára sögu kennslu námskeiðs í verkfræði, frá 2004 til 2014, og samanlagt úrtak var 827 nemendur. Niðurstöðurnar sýndu að það var ekki marktækt samhengi milli breytanna þriggja: Verkefnaálags, ánægju nemenda og prófseinkunnar. Út frá niðurstöðunum ákváðu höfundar að rannsaka frekar hvernig breyta megi högun kennslu þannig að árangur nemenda á lokaprófi yrði betri. Yfir 12 ára reynsla kennara af því að kenna þetta námskeið er að þó nemendur telji sig skilja námsefni vikunnar í fyrirlestratímum þá gera þeir það ekki í tölvuverstímum daginn eftir. Þetta verður til þess að aðstoðakennarar verða að nýta mikilvægan tíma sinn í að fara aftur yfir námsefnið sem kennarinn fór yfir daginn áður. Höfundar hafa ekki einfalt svar við þessu en mögulega er þetta blanda af eftirfarandi: Nemendur mæta ekki undirbúnir í fyrirlestra, nemendur fylgjast ekki með í fyrirlestrum og spyrja því ekki spurninga, nemendur eru vanir því að vera óvirkir í tímum og sjá ekki gildi þess að geta spurt kennara spurninga og einnig að efnið kann hljóma einfalt þegar kennari útskýrir það en þegar nemendur byrja að beita aðferðunum þá vakna spurningar. Höfundar ákváðu að breyta kennsluaðferðum til að takast á við þetta vandamál og höfðu að leiðarljósi að auðvelda nemendum að læra námsefnið, að nemendur myndu hafa gaman af námskeiðinu og að þeim myndi ganga betur á lokaprófi. Ákveðið var að skipta yfir í vendikennslu (e. Flipped teaching) og taka upp fyrirlestra með skjáupptökuhugbúnaði. Meginástæðan fyrir þeirri ákvörðun var að gera nemendum kleift að stjórna því hvenær og hvernig þeir horfa á fyrirlestrana. Að auki þá geta nemendur spilað aftur hluta fyrirlesturs ef þeir þurfa þess og gert hlé og haldið áfram síðar. Með þessari nýbreytni var nemendum gert mögulegt að nýta fyrirlestrana þegar þeir unnu að heimaverkefnum og einnig í tölvuverstímum – þ.a. aðstoðarkennarar gátu bent nemendum á fyrirlestraupptökur og náð þá betur að sinna nemendum sem höfðu spurningar sem ekki var svarað í fyrirlestraupptökunum. Að auki þá var með þessu fyrirkomulagi komið á móts við nemendur sem ekki hefðu getað – vegna mismunandi ástæðna – mætt í hefðbundnu fyrirlestratímana. Tvær útfærslur af vendikennslu voru prófaðar á tveimur árum. Vendikennslan fyrra árið fór fram þannig að fyrirlestratímar voru nýttir í að svara spurningum nemenda úr fyrirlestrum vikunnar. Árið eftir var fyrirkomulaginu breytt þannig að fyrirlestratímarnir voru nýttir til að fara yfir valin hugtök og aðferðir auk þess að æfa nemendur í að beita námsefninu.

Rannsóknaspurning Markmið rannsóknarinnar var að ákvarða hvort nemendum gangi betur á lokaprófi ef stuðst er við vendikennsluaðferðir en þegar stuðst er við hefðbundna fyrirlestra; þ.e., að ákvarða hvort það sé samhengi milli kennsluaðferðar og einkunna á lokaprófi. Markmiðið var einnig að kanna áhrif verkefna í lok fyrirlestratíma á einkunnir á lokaprófi. Við prófuðum eftirfarandi tvær tilgátur: H1: Það er samhengi á milli kennsluaðferðar og meðaleinkunnar á lokaprófi. H2: Í vendikennslu þá er samhengi milli verkefna í fyrirlestratímum og meðaleinkunnar á lokaprófi.

Aðferðafræði Þessi rannsókn var framkvæmd annars vegar með greiningu á ritrýndum greinum til að finna fyrri rannsóknir á þessu sviði og hins vegar með greiningu á gögnum sem safnað var á þeim 12 árum sem fyrsta árs námskeiðið „Tölvuteikning og framsetning“ var kennt í véla- og iðnaðarverkfræði við Háskóla Íslands.

Staða þekkingar Stuðst var við Web of Science gagnagrunninn, sem hefur sérstaka stöðu í vísindasamfélaginu og er viðhaldið af Clarivate Analytics, þegar leitað var að fyrri rannsóknum á tengslum vendikennslu og árangurs nemenda. Leitað var að greinum með tveimur leitarskilyrðum. Skilyrðin sem notuð voru við fyrri leitina voru: TS = (Student* NEAR (perc* OR asses* OR measur* OR eval*) AND ((revers* OR flip* OR invert*) NEAR/2 (classroom* OR teach*) )) AND SU=("EDUCATION SCIENTIFIC DISCIPLINES" OR "EDUCATION EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH"). Leitin skilaði 83 niðurstöðum (6. júní 2016). Leitarskilyrðin sem notuð voru fyrir seinni leitina voru: TS = (((revers* OR flip* OR invert*) NEAR/2 (classroom* OR teach*)) AND engineering* ) AND SU=("EDUCATION SCIENTIFIC DISCIPLINES" OR "EDUCATION EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH") Leitin skilaði 16 niðurstöðum (6. júní 2016). Samanlagt fengust því 91 leitarniðstöður. Útdrættir þessara greina voru lesnir með það að markmiði að finna greinar sem tengdust efni þessarar rannsóknar. Eftir lesturinn fækkaði greinunum niður í 53 og stuðst var við þær við skrif þessarar greinar.

Gagnasöfnun Til að sannreyna tilgáturnar þá voru notuð þrjú sett af gögnum. Gögnin komu frá 12 ára sögu fyrsta árs verkfræðinámskeiðs í tækniteikningu. Á árunum 2004-2016, þá var fjöldi nemenda í lokaprófi á bilinu 70 og 90, samtals 945 nemendur öll árin. Flöktið í fjölda nemenda sem þreyttu lokaprófið á hverju ári má rekja til margra þátta; t.d. fjölda nemenda sem hefja nám í verkfræði á hverju ári og fjölda nemenda sem hætta námi á fyrsta ári. Það má benda hér á að þar sem engin skólagjöld eru innheimt í Háskóla Íslands – einungis skráningargjöld – þá er mögulegt að skuldbinding nemenda sé ekki eins mikil og ef þeir greiddu skólagjöld. Öll 12 árin sá sami fyrirlesari um fyrirlestrana, skipulagi námskeiðsins var haldið óbreyttu, markmiðum námskeiðsins haldið óbreyttum og kennslubókin (á ensku) var einnig sú sama. Skipt var þrisvar um aðstoðarkennara á tímabilinu og komu þeir úr röðum fyrrverandi nemenda. Hluti af mati nemenda var 3 klukkutíma lokapróf þar sem nemendur voru prófaðir í teikniaðferðum. Á hverju ári höfðu nemendur aðgang að lokaprófum síðustu ára og vikuverkefni hvers árs byggðu á lokaprófum síðasta árs. Námskeiðið sitja nemendur í iðnaðar- og vélaverkfræði á öðru misseri (1. ár) í BS námi. Námskeiðið er 6 ECTS (150-180 klst.) og er haldið hvert vor og kennt á íslensku. Námskeiðið kynnir grunnhugtök og aðferðir við gerð verkfræðilegra teikninga og framsetningu á tæknilegum upplýsingum. Í hverri viku voru haldnir tveir fyrirlestrar (80 mín.) og tveir tölvuverstímar (80 mín.). Í 10 vikur unnu nemendur vikuleg heimaverkefni sem skilað var útprentuðum. Nemendur gátu valið um að vinna verkefnin sem einstaklingsverkefni eða hópverkefni í litlum hópi (2 til 3 nemendur). Verkefni voru metin til einkunnar af aðstoðakennurum og skilað aftur í tölvuverstíma þegar unnið var að næstu verkefnaskilum. Vikuverkefnin og lokaprófið voru á íslensku. Árið 2015 var skipt yfir í vendikennslu. Hefðbundnu fyrirlestrunum var skipt út fyrir tveggja tíma upptökur sem gerðar voru aðgengilegar á vefsíðu námskeiðsins. Upptökurnar samanstóðu af rödd 23

kennara og aĂ°gerĂ°um hans ĂĄ skjĂĄnum. Kennarinn ĂştskĂ˝rĂ°i fyrir nemendum meĂ° ĂžvĂ aĂ° teikna ĂĄ skjĂĄinn â&#x20AC;&#x201C; bĂŚĂ°i ĂştskĂ˝ringamyndir og dĂŚmi um hvernig beita ĂĄ aĂ°ferĂ°unum (stuĂ°st var viĂ° Wacom skrifskjĂĄ). TĂminn sem hefĂ°i annars fariĂ° Ă hefĂ°bundna fyrirlestra var nĂ˝ttur til Ăžess aĂ° svara spurningum nemenda sem hĂśfĂ°u horft ĂĄ upptĂśkurnar og hĂśfĂ°u spurningar sem ekki var svaraĂ° Ă fyrirlestraupptĂśkunum. Einungis 3-4 nemendur nĂ˝ttu sĂŠr fyrirlestratĂmana Ă hverri viku. Breytingar voru gerĂ°ar ĂĄ fyrirkomulagi vendikennslunnar voriĂ° 2016. TĂminn sem hefĂ°i annars fariĂ° Ă hefĂ°bundna fyrirlestra var nĂ˝ttur til Ăžess aĂ° ĂştskĂ˝ra valin hugtĂśk og aĂ°ferĂ°ir sem voru tekin fyrir Ă upptĂśkum fyrir hverja viku. Efni fyrirlestranna var valiĂ° af nemendum sem mĂŚttu eĂ°a af kennara ef nemendur hĂśfĂ°u engar Ăłskir. Ă&#x201C;skir nemenda fengu hĂŚrri forgang. Ă? lok annars hvers fyrirlesturs lagĂ°i kennari fyrir verkefni Ăşr efni vikunnar sem nemendur leystu meĂ° ĂžvĂ aĂ° teikna ĂĄ blĂśĂ°. Ă? lok tĂmans skiluĂ°u nemendur inn lausnum sĂnum og fengu Ăžeir full skil fyrir aĂ° hafa reynt viĂ° verkefnin â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ăşrlausnir Ăžeirra voru ekki metnar. Nemendur voru hvattir til ĂžĂĄtttĂśku Ă tĂmaverkefnunum meĂ° ĂžvĂ aĂ° lĂĄta Ăžau gilda 5% af lokaeinkunn fyrir nĂĄmskeiĂ°iĂ°. Gagnasett 1 inniheldur lokaeinkunnir allra 12 ĂĄranna. Gagnasett tvĂś inniheldur upplĂ˝singar um verkefnin sem nemendur skiluĂ°u inn Ă lok fyrirlestratĂmanna. Gagnasett ĂžrjĂş inniheldur niĂ°urstĂśĂ°ur ĂĄrlegu kennslukannana sem nemendur taka ĂžĂĄtt Ă.

Greining gagna TĂślfrĂŚĂ°ileg prĂłf eru notuĂ° Ă greininni til Ăžess aĂ° athuga tvĂŚr tegundir tilgĂĄta. Annars vegar hvort tvĂś meĂ°algildi sĂŠu tĂślfrĂŚĂ°ilega frĂĄbrugĂ°in og hins vegar hvort hallatala bestu lĂnu Ă gegnum ĂĄkveĂ°in gildi sĂŠ tĂślfrĂŚĂ°ilega frĂĄbrugĂ°in nĂşlli (lĂnan sĂŠ lĂĄrĂŠtt). Ă&#x17E;egar meĂ°altĂśl eru borin saman er Tukeyâ&#x20AC;&#x2DC;s HSD (honestly significant difference ) prĂłfiĂ° notaĂ°. Tukey HSD prĂłfiĂ° prĂłfar tvĂhliĂ°a tilgĂĄtuprĂłf (e. two-tailed): H0 : Îź1 = Îź2 = Îź3 = â&#x20AC;Ś = Îźm ,

(1)

Ă&#x17E;ar sem m er fjĂśldi meĂ°altala sem eru borin saman. PrĂłfiĂ° gerir rĂĄĂ° fyrir ĂžvĂ aĂ° gildin Ă hverjum hĂłpi fylgi normal dreifingu og hafi hafi sĂśmu dreifni. Tukey HSD prĂłfiĂ° er t-prĂłf meĂ° aĂ°lĂśguĂ°um p-gildum. AĂ°lĂśgunin er vegna type I villa sem eru lĂklegri Ă pĂśruĂ°um prĂłfum. Ă? Ăžessari grein er 95% Ăśryggisbil notaĂ° sem ĂžĂ˝Ă°ir aĂ° nĂşll tilgĂĄtunni er hafnaĂ° ef aĂ°lĂśguĂ°u p-gildin eru undir 0,05. Ă&#x17E;egar prĂłfaĂ° er hvort hallatala bestu lĂnu, gefin meĂ° đ?&#x2018;&#x152; = Î˛0 + Î˛1 đ?&#x2018;&#x2039;, sĂŠ tĂślfrĂŚĂ°ilega frĂĄbrugĂ°in nĂşlli ĂžĂĄ er nĂşll tilgĂĄtan: H0 : Î˛1 = 0,

(2)

Ăžar sem Î˛1 er hallatala lĂnunnar og Î˛0 er skurĂ°punktur lĂnunnar viĂ° Y ĂĄs. Meta Ăžarf hallatĂślu lĂnunnar, metillinn kallast đ?&#x203A;˝Ě&#x201A;1 . PrĂłfunarstiki fyrir metnu hallatĂśluna fylgir t-dreifingu ef nĂşll tilgĂĄtan gildir og hefur đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; â&#x2C6;&#x2019; 2 frelsisgrĂĄĂ°ur Ăžar sem n er fjĂśldi gilda sem notuĂ° eru til aĂ° meta hallatĂśluna. Ă&#x17E;egar prĂłfunarstiki hefur veriĂ° reiknaĂ°ur ĂžĂĄ er hann borinn saman viĂ° gildi Ăşr Student t-dreifingunni sem er hĂĄĂ° Ăśryggisbilinu sem valiĂ° er og gefiĂ° er upp skv. APA sniĂ°i; t.d. t(đ?&#x153;&#x2C6;)=X, Ăžar sem đ?&#x153;&#x2C6; er fjĂśldi frelsisgrĂĄĂ°a og X er gildi Ăşr Student t dreifingunni. Ă? greininni er 95% Ăśryggisbil notaĂ°; Ăž.a., nĂşlltilgĂĄtunni er hafnaĂ° ef p er minna en 0,05 og/eĂ°a |t(đ?&#x153;&#x2C6;)| > 2. Til einfĂśldunar ĂžĂĄ er t(đ?&#x153;&#x2C6;) boriĂ° saman viĂ° tĂśluna 2. Talan ĂŚtti aĂ° liggja ĂĄ bilinu 2-3 Ăžegar frelsisgrĂĄĂ°urnar eru fleiri. Ă? Ăžessari grein er notuĂ° talan 2 sem ĂžĂ˝Ă°ir krĂśfurnar eru ĂśrlĂtiĂ° strangari.

Breytur og mælingar Breyturnar sem notaðar eru í þessari rannsókn eru einkunnir á lokaprófi, einkunnir þeirra sem ná ekki lágmarkseinkunn og niðurstöður árlegs námskeiðsmats sem nemendur tóku þátt í. Lokaprófið var þriggja tíma skriflegt próf sem gildir 40% af lokaeinkunn og nemendur verða að ná prófinu til að standast námskeiðið. Uppbygging lokaprófsins var eins í 16 ár þar sem lykilhugtök og aðferðir voru prófaðar með sjálfstæðum viðfangsefnum sem hvert var um 20% af prófinu. Heimaverkefni annarinnar voru samansett af eldri prófdæmum og lágmarkseinkunn til að ná námskeiðinu var 5.0. Samanburðurinn sem framkvæmdur er í þessari rannsókn styðst einungis við einkunn á lokaprófi og er reiknað meðaltal fyrir hvert ár. Í gegnum árin var aldrei átt við prófeinkunnir; þ.e., þær voru aldrei skalaðar né hliðrað til að uppfylla ákv. „dreifnihugleiðingar“. Færni og þekking nemenda á teiknihugbúnaðinum sem notaður var í námskeiðinu var ekki metin á lokaprófinu. Vikuleg heimaverkefni og lokaverkefni námskeiðsins voru notuð til að meta þá færni og þekkingu. Ánægja nemenda var metinn út frá árlegu mati nemenda á námskeiðinu. Spurningarnar í námskeiðsmatinu breyttust á tímabilinu þannig að til að fá sambærilegar mælingar fyrir öll 12 árin voru fjórir þættir úr matinu notaðir og vigtaðir saman. Þeir fjórir þættir sem voru til staðar í námskeiðsmati allra áranna voru: kennsla, skipulag námskeiðs, gagnsemi námskeiðs og fræðileg hvatning. Þættirnir eru gerðir úr nokkrum spurningum sem hver var metin á Likert kvarða (frá 1 til 5). Gögnin sem rannsóknin byggir á eru meðaltöl hverrar spurningar fyrir hvert ár.

Forsendur Niðurstöður þessarar rannsóknar byggja á nokkrum forsendum. Gert er ráð fyrir að lokapróf mæli kunnáttu nemenda á viðeigandi hátt og gert ráð fyrir að niðurstöður kennslukannanna sé hægt að nota sem stika á gæði námskeiða. Í Háskólanum er það valkvætt að svara kennslukönnunum. Þannig aðferðafræði við söfnun gagna getur vart talist viðunandi þegar spurningar eru lagðar fyrir hóp sem á að standa fyrir heildina. Hins vegar sýndu Felder og Brent (2008) að þrátt fyrir gallana sé vel hægt að nota kennslukannanir sem mat á gæði námskeiða. Þessu til viðbótar er gert ráð fyrir að þeir fjórir þættir úr námskeiðsmatinu sem vigtaðir voru saman gefi rétta mynd af ánægju nemenda.

Staða þekkingar Leitarniðurstöður í Web of Science gáfu 53 ritrýndar greinar sem taka á vendikennslu. Greinarnar voru frá mismunandi sviðum og fjölluðu um mismunandi efni. Greinarnar komu frá heilbrigðisþjónustu (H 26), verkfræði (Verk - 9), vísindum (Vís - 11), menntun (M – 2), viðskiptum (Við – 3), félagsvísindum (F – 1) og óþekkt (1). Flestar greinanna fjölluðu um ánægju nemenda (e. satisfaction) eða frammistöðu þeirra (Tafla 2).

Tafla 2 Greinar um vendikennslu sem rýndar voru í verkefninu.

(Hotle & Garrow, 2016) (Gilboy, Heinerichs, & Pazzaglia, 2015) (Betihavas, Bridgman, Kornhaber, & Cross, 2016) (Er, Kopcha, Orey, & Dustman, 2015) (Wilson, 2013) (Tanner & Scott, 2015) (Wakabayashi, 2015) (Fautch, 2015) (Peterson, 2016) (Tune, Sturek, & Basile, 2013) (Schlairet, Green, & Benton, 2014) (McLaughlin et al., 2014) (McLean, Attardi, Faden, & Goldszmidt, 2016) (Yelamarthi & Drake, 2015) (Munson & Pierce, 2015) (Moraros, Islam, Yu, Banow, & Schindelka, 2015) (Swart & Wuensch, 2016) (Missildine, Fountain, Summers, & Gosselin, 2013) (Simpson & Richards, 2015) (Della Ratta, 2015) (Hoole, Sivasuthan, Karthik, & Hoole, 2015) (Al-Zahrani, 2015) (Battaglia & Kaya, 2015) (Koo et al., 2016) (Ryan & Reid, 2016)

Árangur nemenda Val nemenda Kerfisbundin skoðun

+ +

Verk H

Árangur nemenda Árangur nemenda

Einstaklingsaðlögn að nemendum

Svið

Árangur

Markvirkni Hönnun námskrár

Fallhlutfall

(Mason, Shuman, & Cook, 2013) (Porcaro, Jackson, McLaughlin, & O'Malley, 2016) (Weaver & Sturtevant, 2015) (Kiviniemi, 2014) (Chiang & Wang, 2015)

Ánægja

Niðurstöður

Innihald

Viðfangsefni + = jákvæð áhrif - = neikvæð áhrif 0 = engin áhrif

Grein

+ +

Vís H Verk

Verk H H

+ + /-

0/+

Netaðstoð Viðhorf Viðhorf Nám Árangur nemenda Markvirkni Þróun námskeiðs Þróun námskeiðs

Námsaðferðir

+ +

Þróun námskeiðs Markvirkni

+ -

Áhugi nemenda

+ 0 + + + +

Námsaðferðir Hönnun námskrár Sköpun nemenda Markvirkni Árangur nemenda Árangur nemenda

+ + 0

Verk H H

Við H

+ +

Námsaðferðir

Áhugi nemenda Árangur nemenda Markvirkni

+ + + +

Vís Vís Verk H Vís Vís H H H Vís

+ +

H H Verk M Verk H Vís

(Park & Howell, 2015) (Ho, Bidwal, Lopes, Shah, & Ip, 2014) (Gross, Pietri, Anderson, Moyano-Camihort, & Graham, 2015) (Li, Zhang, Bonk, & Guo, 2015) (Baepler, Walker, & Driessen, 2014) (Galway, Corbett, Takaro, Tairyan, & Frank, 2014) (Petrillo, 2016) (Gonzalez-Gomez, Su Jeong, Airado Rodriguez, & Canada-Canada, 2016) (Wanner & Palmer, 2015) (Kim, Patrick, Srivastava, & Law, 2014) (McLaughlin et al., 2013) (Wong, Ip, Lopes, & Rajagopalan, 2014) (Gorres-Martens, Segovia, & Pfefer, 2016) (Morgan et al., 2014) (Balan, Clark, & Restall, 2015) (Nguyen, Yu, Japutra, & Chen, 2016) (Khanova, McLaughlin, Rhoney, Roth, & Harris, 2015) (Bossaer, Panus, Stewart, Hagemeier, & George, 2016) (Boesner, Pickert, & Stibane, 2015) (Gandhi, 2016) (Oh, 2015) (Critz & Knight, 2013) (Pierce & Fox, 2012)

Áhugi nemenda Nám Árangur nemenda Stuðningtól Minni setutími Stuðningtól Þróun námskeiðs Árangur nemenda Nám Árangur nemenda Árangur nemenda Árangur nemenda Nám Árangur nemenda Námsaðgerðir Leiðbeiningar um framkvæmd Skynjun nemenda

H H Vís

0 0/+

M Vís H

+ +

Vís Vís

+ 0 0/+ 0/+ +

+ + +

F Verk H H H H Við Við H

Árangur nemenda Skynjun nemenda Nám með líkönum Skynjun nemenda Þróun námskeiðs Þróun námskeiðs

+ +

H Verk ? H H

Flestar rannsóknirnar komust að þeirri niðurstöðu að vendikennsla hefur jákvæð áhrif á upplifun nemenda. Það er þó einungis að hluta til rétt. Við greiningu á greinunum 53 þá kom í ljós að þær sem fjalla um ánægju nemenda greina all flestar frá jákvæðum niðurstöðum en yfir helmingur þeirra meta ekki ánægjuna (Tafla 3).

Tafla 3 Ánægja nemenda með vendikennslu. Ánægja

Fjöldi

Greinar

Jákvæð

Jákvæð & neikvæð

(Al-Zahrani, 2015; Battaglia & Kaya, 2015; Boesner et al., 2015; Chiang & Wang, 2015; Fautch, 2015; Gilboy et al., 2015; Gonzalez-Gomez et al., 2016; Hoole et al., 2015; Koo et al., 2016; Li et al., 2015; Mason et al., 2013; McLaughlin et al., 2013; McLean et al., 2016; Moraros et al., 2015; Morgan et al., 2014; Park & Howell, 2015; Porcaro et al., 2016; Simpson & Richards, 2015; Swart & Wuensch, 2016; Tanner & Scott, 2015; Wanner & Palmer, 2015; Wilson, 2013; Yelamarthi & Drake, 2015) (Betihavas et al., 2016)

Hlutlaus

(Della Ratta, 2015)

Neikvæð

(Missildine et al., 2013)

Ekki metin

Samtals

Greinarnar sem ekki taka fyrir ánægju nemenda (Tafla 3) fjalla um árangur nemenda. Þær segja all flestar frá jákvæðum (eða hlutlausum) áhrifum vendikennslu á árangur nemenda – en þær eru tæpur helmingur allra greinanna sem rýndar voru. Tafla 4 Áhrif vendikennslu á frammistöðu nemenda. Árangur Jákvæð

Jákvæð eða neikvætt

Hlutlaus

Neikvæð

Ekki metin

Samtals

Rannsakendur nefndu ýmis atriði sem hafa haft áhrif á frammistöðu nemenda: Nemendur geta ekki beðið um hjálp á meðan þeir fylgjast með fyrirlestraupptöku (Hotle & Garrow, 2016), frammistaðan er háð góðum heimaverkefnum og fyrirlestraspurningum (e. in-class quizzes) (Tune et al., 2013), fyrirlestratíminn þarf að vera nýttur til að virkja nemendur í að beita námsefninu (McLaughlin et al., 2014) og nemendur koma ekki nægjanlega undirbúnir í tíma (Al-Zahrani, 2015). Rannsakendurnir nálguðust einnig frammistöðu nemenda á mismunandi máta. Sumir rannsakendur lögðu áherslu á nemendur sem höfðu einkunnir í lægsta þriðjungnum. Í grein Ryan and Reid (2016) var frammistaða nemenda í lægsta þriðjungnum einungis tölfræðilega marktæk og niðurstöður þeirra sýndu einnig að með því að skipta frá hefðbundnum fyrirlestrum yfir í vendikennslu þá varð umtalsverð fækkun (56%) í hópi nemenda sem sögðu sig úr námskeiðinu eða fengu einkunnirnar D og F. Þessar niðurstöður eru samhljóma niðurstöðum Gross et al. (2015) sem sýndu að jákvæð áhrif vendikennslu var helst að greina hjá nemendum sem höfðu lága meðaleinkunn og einnig kvenkyns nemendum. 28

Fimm greinar fjalla um námsárangur (Kim et al., 2014; Petrillo, 2016; Porcaro et al., 2016; Ryan & Reid, 2016; Swart & Wuensch, 2016). Nokkrir rannsakendur komast að því að aukin ánægja verði til þess að nemendur muni námsefnið betur (Swart & Wuensch, 2016), á meðan Porcaro et al. (2016) sjá aukningu í fjölda nemenda sem ná prófi (frá 47% með hefðbundnum fyrirlestrum yfir í um 56–65% þegar skipt var yfir í vendikennslu). Ryan and Reid (2016) sáu 56% fækkun í fjölda nemenda sem sögðu sig úr námskeiðinu eða fengu einkunnirnar F og D. Kim et al. (2014) komust að sambærilegum niðurstöðum þar sem fjöldi nemenda sem fékk einkunnina C eða lægra minnkaði úr 44% niður í 17%. Greinar um vendikennslu eru almennt sammála um að áhrif vendikennslu eru í flestum tilvikum jákvæð eða hlutlaus. Einnig hefur verið greint frá öðrum ávinningi eins og að það verður minna um að nemendur séu að sinna mörgum verkefnum á sama tíma en þegar stuðst er við hefðbundna fyrirlestraformið (McLean et al., 2016). Greinum um vendikennslu, sem tengjast þessari rannsókn, má skipta í tvennt. Annars vegar er vendikennsla þar sem fyrirlestrar eru teknir upp og fyrirlestratímarnir eru nýttir til að beita námsefninu á verkefni en nemendur skila ekki niðurstöðum sínum í lok tímans. Hins vegar er sambærileg vendikennsla þar sem nemendur skila niðurstöðum sínum í lok tímans. Báðar aðferðirnar geta haft skilaverkefni sem unnin eru fyrir utan fyrirlestratímans. Battaglia and Kaya (2015) og Hotle and Garrow (2016) tilheyra fyrri hópnum en sjá engan ávinning með vendikennslu. Hoole et al. (2015) tilheyra einnig fyrri hópnum og nýttu fyrirlestrana til að ræða erfið hugtök en mældu ekki frammistöðu nemendanna. Allir þessir höfundar lögðu fyrir heima- og skilaverkefni en þau voru ekki unnin í fyrirlestratímum. Kim et al. (2014) tilheyra seinni hópnum. Þeir bera vendikennslu saman við hefðbundna fyrirlestra og greina frá því að mun fleiri nemendur nái prófinu en meðal frammistaðan jókst ekki. Mason et al. (2013) lögðu fyrir verkefni í fyrirlestratímum og greina frá því að frammistaða nemenda var annað hvort betri eða sú sama og þegar stuðst var við hefðbundna fyrirlestra. Tanner and Scott (2015) lögðu einnig fyrir verkefni í fyrirlestratímum sem skilað var inn í lok tímans en þeir greina ekki frá áhrifum á frammistöðu einungis frá aukinni ánægju nemenda. Út frá greinunum þá virðast vera jákvæð fylgni milli þess að nemendur vinni verkefni í tímum og betri frammistöðu þeirra.

Niðurstöður Rannsóknin er framhald rannsóknar þar sem höfundar könnuðu samhengið milli verkefnaálags og prófseinkunna (Unnthorsson & Oddsson, 2015). Niðurstöðurnar væri hægt að setja fram á tvo vegu. Annars vegar með því að bera niðurstöðurnar saman við fyrri rannsóknina og hins vegar með því að skoða áhrif vendikennslunnar. Samanburður við eldri rannsóknina er ekki gerður hér því það myndi draga athygli frá markmiði rannsóknarinnar. Markmiðið er að sjá hvort það sé ávinningur fyrir nemendur að nota vendikennslu í stað hefðbundinna fyrirlestra – mælt með frammistöðu á prófi og ánægju nemenda með námskeiðið. Til þess að greina þetta eru notuð gögn frá 12 ára kennslu fyrsta árs verkfræðinámskeiðs í tækniteikningu og einkunnir og endurgjöf 945 nemenda. Tafla 5 inniheldur samantekt á breytunum.

Tafla 5 Samantekt á öllum breytum fyrir hvert ár. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Fj. nemenda

Meðal prófseinkunn [af 100]

Meðal mat nemenda á námskeiðinu [af 100]

Einkunnir og ánægja nemenda síðustu tvö árin (2015 og 2016) eru borin saman við 10 ár þar á undan (2004 til 2014).

Vendikennsla Vendikennsla var innleidd árið 2015 með því að skipta út hefðbundnum fyrirlestrum fyrir skjáupptökur af fyrirlestrum og nýta tímann sem annars hefði farið í fyrirlestra í að svara spurningum nemenda, sem höfðu horft á fyrirlestrana, varðandi námsefnið. Til að auðvelda vísindalega framsetningu, var ákveðið að líta á kennsluaðferðirnar þrjár sem mismunandi meðferðir (e. treatment) sem spegla kennsluaðferðir; þ.e. hefðbundinn fyrirlestur, vendikennslu og vendikennslu með tímaæfingum (Tafla 6). Tafla 6 Meðferðir og lýsing þeirra Meðferð

Lýsing

Hefðbundnir fyrirlestrar

Fyrirlestraupptökur aðgengilegar á vef námskeiðs. T2 með mætingu og verkefnavinnu

Fjöldi nemenda 827

Gögn

Árin 2015 - 2016 (nemendur sem mættu ekki) Árið 2016 (nemendur sem mættu 1 to 6 sinnum)

Árin 2004 til 2014

Meðal lokaeinkunn 55 61 61

Fyrstu 10 árin voru haldnir hefðbundir fyrirlestrar sem við nefnum fyrstu meðferðina (T1 – meðalprófseinkunn 54,68). Tölfræðileg próf í fyrri rannsókn höfunda (Unnthorsson & Oddsson, 2015) leiddu í ljós að ekki var hægt að hafna því að meðaltals prófseinkunnir þessara ára voru þær sömu (95% öryggisbil). Við notum þær niðurstöður til að réttlæta það að taka þessi 10 ár saman í eina meðferð. Meðferð tvö (T2 – meðalprófseinkunn 60,58) er nemendahópurinn sem fékk vendikennslu árið 2015 og þriðja meðferðin (T3 – meðalprófseinkunn 60,90) er nemendahópurinn sem fékk árið 2016 vendikennslu og til viðbótar æfingar í fyrirlestratímum. Tölfræðilegar upplýsingar um einkunnir þessara meðferða eru sýndar á Mynd 6.

Mynd 6 Kassamynd af einkunnum með mismunandi meðferðum Með sjónskoðun á Mynd 6 má sjá að miðgildi einkunna hækkaði eftir að skipt var yfir í vendikennslu og að síðasta útfærslan hefur hæsta miðgildið. Tukey HSD próf var notað til að prófa hvort meðalprófseinkunn meðferðanna þriggja séu tölfræðilega frábrugðnar, Tafla 7 sýnir niðurstöðurnar. Tafla 7 Tukey HSD (95% öryggisbil) Meðferð

p leiðr.

p leiðr. T2

T1 0,01

0,01

0,99

Nákvæmari gildi á p-gildunum voru p = 0,0064 þegar T2 var borið saman við T1 og p = 0,0128 þegar T3 var borið saman við T1. Samkvæmt þessum niðurstöðum þá er ekki hægt að hafna núll tilgátunni fyrir tilgátu H1, það er að vendikennsla leiðir af sér betri prófseinkunnir. Munur á T2 og T3 er ekki tölfræðilega marktækur (p = 0.99) sem þýðir að við höfnum núll tilgátu fyrir tilgátu H2, þ.e., að það sé samhengi milli verkefna í fyrirlestratímum og meðaleinkunnar á lokaprófi. Höfnun tilgátu H2 kom á óvart þar sem tilgáta H2 var í samræmi við tilfinningu höfunda. Höfundar ákváðu því að kanna þetta frekar því þeir töldu að ná mætti betri árangri en í T2, með viðbótarfyrirlestrum og fyrirlestraæfingum, sem varð aðferð T3.

Vendikennsla með æfingum Árið 2016 var gerð breyting á vendikennslufyrirkomulaginu þannig að í stað þess að vera einungis með fyrirspurnatíma þá var tíminn nýttur til að fara yfir valin hugtök og aðferðir (oft eftir óskum nemenda) ásamt því að í annarri hverri viku voru lögð verkefni fyrir nemendur í lok tímans til að æfa þá í að beita 31

námsefninu. Nemendurnir merktu lausnir sínar og skiluðu inn. Þetta köllum við þriðju meðferðina (T3). Nemendur fengu full skil fyrir að skila inn lausnum en ekki var farið yfir úrlausnirnar. Við notum úrlausnirnar sem mælikvarða á mætingu, en mætinganiðurstöður (Tafla 8). Tafla 8 Áhrif þátttöku í fyrirlestraæfingum í lok fyrirlestratíma á prófseinkunn (2016). Fj. mætinga

Fj. nemenda

Meðal prófseinkunn 58

Mynd 7 sýnir einkunnir sem fall af mætingu og aðhvarfslína er teiknuð í gegnum gögnin. Nemendur sem mættu aldrei tilheyra T2 en nemendur sem mættu í fyrirlestratíma og leystu fyrirlestraverkefni oftar en einu sinni tilheyra T3.

Mynd 7 Einkunnir á lokaprófi sem fall af mætingu í fyrirlestratíma og þátttöku í fyrirlestraæfingum. Aðhvarfslína er teiknuð inn á myndina. 32

SjĂłnskoĂ°un bendir til Ăžess aĂ° ĂžvĂ oftar sem nemendur mĂŚttu (leystu fyrirlestraverkefni) ĂžvĂ hĂŚrri einkunn Ăžeir fengu ĂĄ lokaprĂłfi. T-prĂłf var notaĂ° til aĂ° prĂłfa hvort hallatala aĂ°hvarfslĂnunnar vĂŚri frĂĄbrugĂ°in nĂşlli. PrĂłfstikinn var ĂĄkvarĂ°aĂ°ur sem |đ?&#x2018;Ą(65)| = 1.74 og p-gildiĂ° p = 0.087. SamkvĂŚmt Ăžessu ĂžĂĄ getum viĂ° ekki hafnaĂ° nĂşll tilgĂĄtunni â&#x20AC;&#x201C; aĂ° hallatalan sĂŠ nĂşll â&#x20AC;&#x201C; ĂžvĂ prĂłfstikinn sem |đ?&#x2018;Ą(65)| = 1.74 er ekki hĂŚrri en 2. Ennfremur, Ăžar sem p-gildiĂ° er hĂŚrra en 0.05 ĂžĂĄ getum viĂ° ekki hafnaĂ° tilgĂĄtunni ef stuĂ°st er viĂ° 95% Ăśryggisbil. Hinsvegar, ef stuĂ°st er viĂ° 90% Ăśryggisbil ĂžĂĄ er hĂŚgt aĂ° hafna tilgĂĄtunni. Ă&#x17E;essi niĂ°urstaĂ°a er hvetjandi og kallar ĂĄ frekari rannsĂłkn.

UmrĂŚĂ°a NiĂ°urstĂśĂ°urnar sĂ˝na aĂ° meĂ° vendkennsluaĂ°ferĂ°unum tveimur fĂŠkkst fram betri frammistaĂ°a hjĂĄ nemendum ĂĄ lokaprĂłfi en meĂ° hefĂ°bundnum fyrirlestrum (T1). HĂśfundar hafa birt greiningu ĂĄ 10 ĂĄra sĂśgu nĂĄmskeiĂ°sins Ăžar sem var stuĂ°st viĂ° hefĂ°bundna fyrirlestra. NiĂ°urstĂśĂ°urnar bentu til Ăžess aĂ° verkefnaĂĄlagiĂ° vĂŚri ekki rĂŠtta breytan â&#x20AC;&#x201C; eĂ°a meĂ°ferĂ°in â&#x20AC;&#x201C; til aĂ° bĂŚta frammistĂśĂ°u nemenda ĂĄ lokaprĂłfinu. Hinar meĂ°ferĂ°irnar tvĂŚr (T2 og T3), sem voru rannsakaĂ°ar Ă Ăžessari rannsĂłkn bĂŚttu hins vegar frammistĂśĂ°u nemenda. MeĂ°ferĂ° tvĂś (T2) gekk Ăşt ĂĄ aĂ° skipta hefĂ°bundnum fyrirlestrum Ăşt fyrir upptĂśkur af fyrirlestrum sem voru gerĂ°ar aĂ°gengilegar ĂĄ vef nĂĄmskeiĂ°sins. TĂminn sem annars hefĂ°i fariĂ° Ă hefĂ°bundna fyrirlestra var nĂ˝ttur til Ăžess aĂ° svara spurningum nemenda um nĂĄmsefniĂ° â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ăžessir tĂmar voru kallaĂ°ir fyrirspurnatĂmar. Athyglivert er aĂ° Ăžessi meĂ°ferĂ°, Ăž.e. aĂ° nota vendikennslu, gefur tĂślfrĂŚĂ°ilega marktĂŚkar niĂ°urstĂśĂ°ur Ă fyrsta skipti sem henni var beitt. En allar breytingarnar sem gerĂ°ar voru ĂĄ vinnuĂĄlagi nemenda Ă 10 ĂĄr (Unnthorsson & Oddsson, 2015) gĂĄfu ekki marktĂŚkar niĂ°urstĂśĂ°ur. MeĂ° ĂžvĂ aĂ° skipta yfir Ă vendikennslu var einungis breytt hvernig nĂĄmsefninu var miĂ°laĂ° til nemenda af kennara â&#x20AC;&#x201C; nĂĄmsefninu og innihaldi fyrirlestranna var haldiĂ° Ăłbreyttu og kennarinn var sĂĄ sami og ĂĄĂ°ur. Ă&#x17E;etta bendir til Ăžess aĂ° ĂĄstĂŚĂ°an fyrir ĂžvĂ aĂ° frammistaĂ°a nemenda batnar meĂ° T2 felist Ă fyrirlestrunum og aĂ° hefĂ°bundnir fyrirlestrar henti ekki nĂĄmsvenjum nemenda. Reynsla hĂśfunda er aĂ° ĂžaĂ° er algengt aĂ° nemendur mĂŚti ekki undirbĂşnir Ă fyrirlestra sem verĂ°ur til Ăžess aĂ° Ăžeir eiga erfitt meĂ° aĂ° fylgja kennara eftir og hĂŚtta ĂžĂĄ aĂ° hlusta og snĂşa sĂŠr aĂ° ĂśĂ°ru â&#x20AC;&#x201C; t.a.m. hverfi Ă heim samfĂŠlagsmiĂ°la. Ă&#x17E;aĂ° eru einnig dĂŚmi um aĂ° nemendur missi ĂžrĂĄĂ°inn en vilji ekki trufla og snĂşi sĂŠr aĂ° ĂśĂ°ru. NiĂ°urstĂśĂ°ur M2 sĂ˝na aĂ° meĂ° ĂžvĂ aĂ° skipta einungis Ăşt hefĂ°bundnum fyrirlestrum fyrir upptĂśkur af fyrirlestrum ĂžĂĄ nĂĄ nemendur betur aĂ° tileinka sĂŠr nĂĄmsefniĂ° â&#x20AC;&#x201C; sem er ĂžĂł vel framsett Ă kennslubĂłkinni (ĂĄ ensku). Yfir Ăśnnina fengu hĂśfundar einnig jĂĄkvĂŚĂ°a endurgjĂśf frĂĄ nemendum varĂ°andi aĂ° bjĂłĂ°a upp ĂĄ upptĂśkur af fyrirlestrum. En meĂ°ferĂ°in fĂŠkk einnig neikvĂŚĂ°a endurgjĂśf frĂĄ nokkrum nemendum Ă kennslukĂśnnun. Nokkrir nemendur kvĂśrtuĂ°u yfir ĂžvĂ aĂ° hitta ekki kennarann ĂĄ meĂ°an Ăžeir vĂŚru aĂ° horfa ĂĄ fyrirlesturinn ĂžvĂ Ăžeir Ăžyrftu aĂ° spyrja strax til aĂ° geta haldiĂ° ĂĄfram. AĂ°rir sĂśgĂ°u aĂ° kennarinn hefĂ°i engan ĂĄhuga ĂĄ nĂĄmskeiĂ°inu â&#x20AC;&#x201C; aĂ° kennarinn nennti ekki aĂ° kenna og gerĂ°i bara upptĂśkur. LeiĂ°a mĂĄ lĂkur aĂ° ĂžvĂ aĂ° Ăžessir nemendur hafi ekki mĂŚtt Ă fyrirspurnatĂmana. Nemendur sem nĂ˝ttu sĂŠr fyrirspurnatĂmana Ă hverri viku voru um 5 (10% af nemendunum). Einn nemandi fann ĂžĂśrf ĂĄ ĂžvĂ aĂ° kvarta yfir reglulegum 1-2 sekĂşndu ĂžĂśgnum milli setninga Ă upptĂśkunum ĂžvĂ samanlagt yrĂ°u Ăžessar sekĂşndur aĂ° dĂ˝rmĂŚtum mĂnĂştum. Ă&#x17E;riĂ°ja meĂ°ferĂ°in (T3) var hĂśnnuĂ° meĂ° ĂžaĂ° aĂ° markmiĂ°i aĂ° gera nemendur virkari Ă nĂĄminu. Til aĂ° auka virkni nemendanna var annarri meĂ°ferĂ°inni (T2) breytt ĂśrlĂtiĂ°. Ă kveĂ°iĂ° var aĂ° nota fyrirspurnatĂmana (sem Ă T1 voru nĂ˝ttir Ă hefĂ°bundna fyrirlestra) til aĂ° fara yfir valin hugtĂśk og aĂ°ferĂ°ir auk Ăžess aĂ° ĂžjĂĄlfa nemendur Ă aĂ° leysa teikniverkefni Ă hĂśndunum. EfniĂ° sem var fariĂ° yfir var valiĂ° af Ăžeim nemendum sem mĂŚttu Ă tĂmana en ef engar sĂŠrstakar Ăłskir voru bornar upp ĂžĂĄ fĂłr kennarinn yfir efni sem hann valdi sjĂĄlfur. Ă? lok annars hvers tĂma voru lĂśgĂ° verkefni fyrir nemendur sem Ăžeir voru beĂ°nir um aĂ° leysa og skila inn Ă lok tĂmans. Nemendur mĂĄttu hjĂĄlpast aĂ° og biĂ°ja kennara um hjĂĄlp. NiĂ°urstĂśĂ°urnar sĂ˝na aĂ° ekki er hĂŚgt aĂ° hafna ĂžvĂ aĂ° frammistaĂ°a nemenda var betri meĂ° ĂžriĂ°ju meĂ°ferĂ°inni (T3) en meĂ° annarri meĂ°ferĂ°inni (T2). Munurinn er tĂślfrĂŚĂ°ilega marktĂŚkur meĂ° 90% Ăśryggisbili. NiĂ°urstĂśĂ°urnar sĂ˝na einnig aĂ° ĂĄnĂŚgja 33

nemenda með námskeiðið var mun meiri en með T2 – í raun var það mesta ánægja sem hafði mælst fyrir námskeiðið öll árin. Þær niðurstöður okkar sem hér eru kynntar eru í takt við fyrri rannsóknir (Battaglia & Kaya, 2015; Hoole et al., 2015; Hotle & Garrow, 2016; Kim et al., 2014; Mason et al., 2013; Tanner & Scott, 2015) þrátt fyrir að þær séu fengnar með öðrum hætti en hér var gert. Þessum rannsóknum ber saman um að æfingar eru nauðsynlegur hluti vendikennslunnar en að þær leiði ekki endilega til betri frammistöðu nemenda. Niðurstöður þessarar rannsóknar benda til þess að vendikennsla með tímaverkefnum auki ánægju nemenda og tímaverkefnin virðast bæta frammistöðu nemenda. Við heimildaleit fannst engin rannsókn sem gerði mælingar á áhrifum tímaverkefna eins og hér var gert. Prófanir á þessum áhrifum bíða frekari rannsókna. Kennarinn var einnig ánægðari með fyrirlestratímana vegna þess að ekki þurfti að fara yfir allt námsefnið, nemendur voru virkari í að spyrja og betra andrúmsloft myndaðist í tímanum. Það var meðal annars vegna þess að hann upplifði minni pressu á að komast yfir allt námsefni vikunnar í fyrirlestratímunum – upptökur af fyrirlestrum sem tóku á öllu námsefninu voru aðgengilegar nemendum á vef námskeiðsins. Kennarinn gat því nýtt tímana til að taka ítarlegra fyrir erfið hugtök og aðferðir en áður sem varð örugglega til þess að kennarinn virkaði vingjarnlegri gagnvart nemendunum.

Samantekt Megintilgátan hér er að að kennsluaðferð hafi áhrif á frammistöðu nemenda. Höfundar breyttu kennsluaðferð frá hefðbundnum fyrirlestrum yfir í vendikennslu; þ.e. upptökur af fyrirlestrum voru gerðar aðgengilegar nemendum á vef námskeiðsins. Tölfræðilega marktækar niðurstöður sýna að vendikennsla hefur jákvæð áhrif á frammistöðu nemenda á lokaprófi. Hins vegar fékkst ekki tölfræðilega marktækur munur á vendikennsluaðferðunum tveimur en frekari greining leiddi í ljós að það eru sterk tengsl á milli góðrar einkunnar á lokaprófi og að taka þátt í fyrirlestraæfingum. Álykta má út frá niðurstöðum þessarar rannsóknar að vendikennsla með fyrirlestraupptökum og æfingum í lok fyrirlestratíma er betri nálgun en aukin heimaverkefni þegar markmiðið er að bæta frammistöðu nemenda í lokaprófi. Þessi kennsluaðferð bætir einnig upplifun nemenda; þ.e. ánægja nemenda jókst þó svo að heimaverkefnaálaginu væri haldið óbreyttu. Út frá niðurstöðum þessarar rannsóknar þá hafa höfundar gert smávægilegar breytingar á meðferð M3. Meginbreytingarnar eru að æfingar verða í lok hvers fyrirlestratíma – í stað þess að hafa þær í helmingi þeirra – og einungis raunverulegar tilraunir til úrlausnar verða samþykktar sem skil. Höfundar ætla sér að prófa þessar breytingar og birta niðurstöðurnar síðar.

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Fýsileiki virkjunar sólarorku á norðurslóðum: Reynsla af sólarpanelum IKEA á Íslandi Feasibility of a small-scale photovoltaic systems in cold climate: IKEA solar array case study Sindri Þrastarsona, Björn Marteinssona, Hrund Ó. Andradóttira. aUmhverfis- og byggingarverkfræðideild Háskóla Íslands, Hjarðarhaga 2-6, 107 Reykjavík. Fyrirspurnir: Sindri Þrastarson sth227@hi.is Greinin barst 7. október 2019 Samþykkt til birtingar 7. desember 2019

Ágrip Á síðustu áratugum hefur verið gríðarleg þróun í nýtni á sólarsellum í heiminum og framleiðslukostnaður þeirra hefur lækkað mikið. Norðurlöndin hafa tekið markviss skref í að innleiða sólarsafnkerfi þrátt fyrir takmarkaða inngeislun á veturna. Þáttaskil urðu á Íslandi þegar IKEA setti upp safnkerfi 65 sólarpanela með 17,55 kW framleiðslugetu í Garðabæ sumarið 2018. Markmið þessa verkefnis var að meta fýsileika sólarsella í Reykjavík á grundvelli mældrar heildargeislunar í Reykjavík, framleiddri orku safnkerfis IKEA og fræðum. Niðurstöður rannsóknarinnar gefa til kynna að heildargeislun í Reykjavík (64°N, 21° V) var að meðaltali um 780 kWh/m2 á ári (árin 2008-2018), þar af mest 140 kWh/m2 í júlí og minnst 1,8 kWh/m2 í desember. Orkuframleiðsla á ársgrundvelli er hámörkuð ef sólarsellur snúa í suður í 40° halla, en lægri halli skilar sambærilegum árangri á sumrin. Hægt er að auka framleiðslu með því að auka halla panela á veturna yfir 60°. Safnkerfi IKEA framleiddi rúmlega 12 MWh á 12 mánaða tímabili, og var sköluð árleg orka (árs orku framleiðsla deilt með hámarksafli kerfis) 712 kWh/kW. Nýtingarhlutfall kerfis, þ.e. hlutfall af mestu hámarksnýtingu, reyndist vera 69% , sem er um 10% lægra en mælst hefur í tveimur viðmiðunarrannsóknum á norðurslóðum. Rekja má þennan mun til snjó og skuggamyndunar á panela IKEA auk þess að ekki reyndist unnt að setja panela í kjörhalla vegna tæknilegra takmarkana. Endurgreiðslutími fjárfestingar IKEA reiknast sem 24 ár, sem tekur mið af lágu raforkuverði á dreifikerfi í Reykjavík og ófyrirsjáanlegs hás uppsetningarkostnaðar. Sólarorka getur verið ákjósanlegur valkostur í orkuframleiðslu á Íslandi þegar horft er til framtíðar, meiri reynsla hefur náðst í nýtingu og ef hægt er að selja raforkuna inn á dreifikerfið. Lykilorð: Sólarpanelar, orkuframleiðsla, kostnaður, norðurslóðir.

Abstract The efficiency and production costs of solar panels have improved dramatically in the past decades. The Nordic countries have taken steps in instigating photovoltaic (PV) systems into energy production despite limited incoming solar radiation in winter. IKEA installed the first major PV system in Iceland with 65 solar panels with 17.55 kW of production capacity in the summer of 2018. The purpose of this research was to assess the feasibility of PV systems in Reykjavík based on solar irradiation measurements, energy production of a PV array located at IKEA and theory. Results suggests that net irradiation in Reykjavík (64°N, 21° V) was on average about 780 kWh/m2 per year (based on years 20082018), highest 140 kWh/m2 in July and lowest 1,8 kWh/m2 in December. Maximum annual solar power is generated by solar panels installed at a 40° fixed angle. PV panels at a lower angle produce more energy during summer. Conversely, higher angles maximize production in the winter. The PV system produced over 12 MWh over a one-year period and annual specific yield was 712 kWh/kW and performance ratio 69% which is about 10% lower than in similar studies in cold climates. That difference can be explained by snow cover, shadow falling on the panels and panels not being fixed at optimal slope. Payback time for the IKEA PV system was calculated 24 years which considers low electricity prices in Reykjavik and unforeseen high installation costs. Solar energy could be a feasible option in the future if productionand installation costs were to decrease and if the solar PV output could be sold to the electric grid in Iceland. Keywords: solar panels, energy production, cost aspects, northern hemisphere.

Inngangur Hlýnun loftslagsins af völdum losunar gróðurhúsaloftegunda af mannavöldum er ótvíræð. Frá árinu 1950 hefur hitastigið í lofthjúpnum og sjónum hækkað, jöklar bráðnað hraðar en nokkru sinni fyrr og sjávarstaða hækkað (IPCC, 2014). Árið 2016 var aðeins um 24,3% af raforku framleidd með endurnýjanlegum orkugjöfum á heimsvísu (IEA, 2018). Sólarsellur nýta orku sólarinnar með því að breyta geislun sólar beint í raforku með ljósspennuaðferð og framleiða jafnstraum (Boyle, 2004). Nýting sólarorku hefur vaxið um 30% á ársvísu síðan 2006 upp í 2,1 % hlutdeild raforkuframleiðslu á heimsvísu árið 2018 (IEA PVPS, 2018a). Með örri þróun sólarsella síðustu áratugi hefur kostnaður við þær lækkað, nýtni aukist ásamt því að uppsetning á sólarrafhlöðum er orðin vænlegri kostur en áður var. Frá árinu 1980 hefur kostnaður við hverja sólarsellu lækkað um 10% árlega og áætlað er að kostnaðurinn muni halda áfram að lækka um 10% á ári fram til ársins 2030 (Farmer & Lafonda, 2015). Á Íslandi er 99,99% af raforku framleidd með endurnýjanlegum orkugjöfum, og þar af er vatnsorka 71% og jarðvarmaorka 29% (Orkustofnun, 2015). Áherslubreytingar í stefnu stjórnvalda til virkjanakosta landsins og álit almennings á umhverfisáhrifum vatnsafls- og jarðvarmavirkjana gætu haft töluverð áhrif á íslenska orkuframleiðslu. Sífellt reynist erfiðara að fá leyfi stjórnvalda til þess að virkja fallvötn og jarðvarma og gæti frekari virkjun vind- og sólarorku komið í auknum mæli inn í orkunýtingu Íslands í náinni framtíð. Áhugavert er að skoða þann möguleika að framleiða raforku með staðbundnum hætti til beinnar notkunar á heimilum eða fyrirtækjum með sólarsellum. Nýting sólarorku á norðurslóðum til raforkuframleiðslu er takmörkuð af lítilli inngeislun sólar yfir veturinn en einnig mikils orkukostnaðar sólarorku. Framleiðslukostnaður sólarpanela fer hratt lækkandi og norðurlönd hafa því stigið markviss skref í að nýta sólarorku (Adaramola & Vågnes, 2014). Á Íslandi hefur nýting sólarorku til raforkuframleiðslu verið takmörkuð við svæði þar sem dreifikerfi raforku er ekki til staðar t.d. á hálendinu, í sumarbústöðum, hjólhýsum, á ýmsum athugunarstöðvum og 40

rafmagnsgirðingum bænda (Kristján Kristjánsson, 2007). Lengi vel hefur mesta framleiðslan á raforku með sólarrafhlöðum á Íslandi verið í Sesseljuhúsi í Grímsnesi en þar eru 16 stykki af 140 W sólarpanelum, samtals um 3 kW (Sólheimar, 2019). Sumarið 2018 urðu þáttaskil þegar IKEA á Íslandi setti upp sólarsafnkerfi 65 panela, 270 W hver, sem skilar 17,55 kW hámarksafli árlega á höfuðborgarsvæðinu. Markmið þessa verkefnis var því að meta rafmagnsframleiðslugetu og fjárhagslegan ávinning sólarsella í Reykjavík, sem liður í að bæta þekkingu á nýtingu sólarorku á norðurslóðum. Lögð var áhersla á að skilja betur fræðilega inngeislun sólar, áætla kjörstefnu og halla yfirborðs sólarsellu til þess að hámarka raforkuframleiðslu með sólarsellum. Leitað var til IKEA á Íslandi varðandi að fá aðgang að framleiðslu- og efnahagslegum gögnum frá fyrsta rekstrarári sólarorkukerfis þeirra til að leggja mat á rekstrargrundvöll raunverulegra kerfa. Þá var leitast við að leggja mat á umhverfis- og uppsetningarþætti sem hafa áhrif á framleiðslugetu sólarsella, eða geta leitt til tapa í kerfinu. Niðurstöður þessa verkefnis eiga að geta nýst áhugasömum einstaklingum, fyrirtækjum og stofnunum um frammistöðu sólarsellu kerfis hér á landi og hagkvæmni þess að setja upp slíkt kerfi. Þessi grein er byggð á meistaraverkefni Sindra Þrastarsonar (2019) í byggingarverkfræði við Háskóla Íslands. Hafa skal í huga að framsetning einstakra niðurstaða getur verið frábrugðin þeirri í ritgerðinni.

Staðarlýsing: Safnkerfi IKEA Safnkerfi 65 sólarpanela af gerð BISOL BMU270-35 var gangsett þann 15. júní 2018 á tæknihúsi við aðalbyggingu IKEA á Íslandi, staðsett í Garðabæ, 64° 04' 26.4"; N 21° 55' 12.0" W og um 38 metra yfir sjávarmáli. Yfir sólarsellunum er 3.2 mm þykkt hert gler með glampavörn, hannað til að hleypa ljósi vel í gegnum sig (BISOL, 2018). Hver sólarpanell er uppgefinn með 270 vött hámarksaflgetu (sjá tæknilegar upplýsingar í töflu 1). Allir panelarnir snúa í hásuður. Samanlagt er uppsett hámarksafl 17,55 kW á 106 fermetra fleti. Ekki reyndist unnt að setja allar 65 sólarsellurnar á þak hússins með 45° halla frá láréttu vegna tæknilegra örðugleika við þakfestingar. Því voru 50 panelar settir á 82 fermetra þakflöt með 20° halla frá láréttu (alls 13,5 kW) og 15 panelar á 24 fermetra suður gaflinn á húsinu, þ.e. í lóðréttri stöðu (alls 4,05 kW). Samkvæmt tæknilegum upplýsingum framleiðanda er nýtni sólarpanels 16,5% og nýtni sólarsellu 18,5%. Lægri nýtni sólarpanels er eðlileg því milli einstakra sella er bil og því er ákveðinn hluti af orkunni sem ekki nýtist.

Mynd 8: Sólarpanelar IKEA í Garðabæ. (Tv.) uppsetning 28. maí 2018. (Th.) rekstrar aðstæður 31. janúar 2019. Sellurnar sjálfar framleiða jafnspennu og fer spennan eftir því hversu margar eru á hverri rás. Panelarnir á þakinu eru tengdar í fjórar slaufur. Það er 12 og 13 panelar raðtengdir í hring. Rofabúnaður er á þakinu fyrir hverja slaufu fyrir sig. Þaðan liggur strengurinn niður í varbúnað í töflu og hverjar tvær slaufur sameinast og tengjast við spennubreytir að gerðinni Kaco 20.0 TL3. Veggpanelarnir eru raðtengdir í tvær slaufur, 7 panelar og 8 panelar saman. Tengjast þeir eins og panelarnir á þakinu í rofabúnað og inn á varbúnað í töflu áður en þeir tengjast inn á annan spennubreytir af gerðini Kaco 4.6 TL1. Spennubreytarnir breyta spennunni frá panelum í 400 volta riðspennu og tengjast inn á aðaltöflu IKEA þar sem framleitt afl er nýtt jafnóðum.

Tafla 9: TĂŚknilegar upplĂ˝singar um sĂłlarsellur IKEA. BISOL BMU270-35 Tegund NĂ˝tni sĂłlarsellu (e. cell efficiency) NĂ˝tni sĂłlarpanels (e. module efficiency) HĂĄmarks afl (e. maximum power (Pmax)) HĂĄmarks spenna (e. Maximum power voltage (Vpm)) Mesti rafstraumur (Ipm) Mesta spenna kerfis (Vdc) HitastuĂ°ull fyrir Pmax HeilarflatarmĂĄl panela NOCT (e. Normal operating cell temperature)

Eiginleiki FjĂślkristalla silikon 18,5 % 16,5 % 270 W 30,5 V 8,85 A 1.000 V +0,049%/K 106,2 m2 44 Â°C

SĂłlarpanelarnir koma meĂ° 15 ĂĄra framleiĂ°sluĂĄbyrgĂ° ĂĄsamt 25 ĂĄra ĂĄbyrgĂ° ĂĄ ĂžvĂ aĂ° ekki minna en 85% af uppgefnum afkĂśstum sellunnar sĂŠ nĂĄĂ°. Ă&#x17E;vĂ mĂĄ gera rĂĄĂ° fyrir aĂ° afkastageta sĂłlarsellunnar minnki um 0,6% ĂĄ hverju ĂĄri (BISOL, 2018).

AĂ°ferĂ°ir GĂśgn VeĂ°urstofa Ă?slands mĂŚlir ĂĄ veĂ°urstofuhĂŚĂ° Ă ReykjavĂk heildargeislun ĂĄ lĂĄrĂŠttan flĂśt (Ăłvissa Âą5 đ?&#x2018;&#x160;/đ?&#x2018;&#x161;2) ĂĄ klukkustundar fresti meĂ° sjĂĄlfvirkum CM22 mĂŚli af gerĂ° Kipp & Zonen. Ă&#x17E;essi mĂŚligildi fengust fyrir ĂĄrin 2008-2019. MĂŚlingar ĂĄ alls framleiddri raforku IKEA (bĂŚĂ°i jafnstraum og riĂ°straum) Ă vatt-stundir fengust fyrir panela ĂĄ Ăžaki og hins vegar panela ĂĄ vegg. VandamĂĄl voru Ă upphafi mĂŚlinga ĂĄ tĂmabilinu 15. jĂşnĂ 2018 fram til 22. ĂĄgĂşst 2018. Ă&#x17E;ess vegna verĂ°ur viĂ°miĂ°unarĂĄriĂ° Ă Ăžessu verkefni 1. september 2018 og nĂŚr fram til 30. ĂĄgĂşst 2019.

AĂ°skilnaĂ°ur beinnar og dreifĂ°ar geislunar ĂĄ lĂĄrĂŠttan flĂśt GĂśgnin frĂĄ VeĂ°urstofu Ă?slands eru heildargeislun ĂĄ lĂĄrĂŠttan flĂśt (đ??źđ?&#x2018;Ą ), sem innifelur bĂŚĂ°i beina sĂłlgeislun ( đ??źđ?&#x2018;? ) og Ăłbeina geislun frĂĄ himinhvolfi ( đ??źđ?&#x2018;&#x2018; ), Ăž.e. đ??źđ?&#x2018;Ą = đ??źđ?&#x2018;? + đ??źđ?&#x2018;&#x2018;

(1)

Bein geislun er sĂş geislun sem lendir beint ĂĄ yfirborĂ° jarĂ°ar frĂĄ sĂłlinni. Ă&#x201C;bein geislun er dreifĂ° geislun sem kemur frĂĄ Ăśllu himinhvolfinu. Ă&#x201C;bein geislun veldur ekki skugga eins og bein sĂłlargeislun, sem er mjĂśg stefnuhĂĄĂ°. Ă skĂ˝juĂ°um degi kemur nĂŚstum Ăśll orka sĂłlarsellu frĂĄ Ăłbeinni geislun meĂ°an ĂĄ heiĂ°skĂrum degi er aĂ°eins um 15-20% heildargeislunar Ăłbein (Axaopoulos, 2015). Ă&#x201C;bein geislun var metin sem đ??źđ?&#x2018;&#x2018; = đ??źđ?&#x2018;Ą â&#x2C6;&#x2014; đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;

(2)

StuĂ°ull Ăłbeinnar geislunar af heild, đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; , var fenginn frĂĄ reynsluvensli Lam og Li (1996) sem 0,974 đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; = {1,192 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; 1,349đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;Ą 0,259

đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;Ą â&#x2030;¤ 0,15 0,15 < đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;Ą â&#x2030;¤ 0,7 đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;Ą > 0,7

(3)

og stuĂ°ull skerĂ°ingar himingeislunar (e. clearness index), đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;Ą , var metinn sem đ??ź

đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;Ą = đ??źđ?&#x2018;Ą

(4)

Mynd 9: Inngeislun sĂłlar ĂĄ hallandi flĂśt rĂŚĂ°st af breiddargrĂĄĂ°u (ď &#x2020;), hvernig jĂśrĂ°in snĂ˝r gagnvart sĂłlu (rĂŚĂ°st af tĂma dags og ĂĄrstĂĂ°) og halla flatar (ď ˘) frĂĄ lĂĄrĂŠttu.

đ?&#x2018;&#x160;

FrĂŚĂ°ileg himingeislun sĂłlar ĂĄ lĂĄrĂŠttan flĂśt đ??ź0 er reiknuĂ° frĂĄ sĂłlar fastanum đ??źđ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ??ś = 1367 2, nĂşmeri dags đ?&#x2018;&#x161; innan ĂĄrs N, og inngeislunarhorni (e. angle of incident) sĂłlar ĂĄ lĂĄrĂŠtt yfirborĂ° đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x153;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;§ sem (Axaopoulos, 2015): 360đ?&#x2018;

đ??ź0 = đ??źđ?&#x2018;&#x2020;đ??ś â&#x2C6;&#x2014; [1 + 0,033 â&#x2C6;&#x2014; cos ( 365 )] â&#x2C6;&#x2014; đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x153;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;§

(5)

Inngeislunarhorn sĂłlar ĂĄ lĂĄrĂŠttan flĂśt fer eftir breiddargrĂĄĂ°u ÎŚ, stjĂśrnubreidd og tĂmahorni sĂłlar đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x153;&#x192;đ?&#x2018;? = đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018; ÎŚđ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x203A;żđ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x153;&#x201D; + đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;ÎŚđ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A;đ?&#x203A;ż

(6)

StjĂśrnubreidd sĂłlar (Î´) er horniĂ° milli geisla sĂłlar og plans miĂ°baugs jarĂ°ar og breytist ĂĄ bilinu Âą23,45 Â° ĂĄ hverju ĂĄri og er Ă hĂĄ- og lĂĄgpunkti ĂĄ sumar- og vetrarsĂłlstĂśĂ°um. HorniĂ° var reiknaĂ° fyrir hvern dag ĂĄrsins sem 360

đ?&#x203A;ż = 23,45Â°đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x2018;&#x2013;đ?&#x2018;&#x203A; [365 (284 + đ?&#x2018; )]

(7)

Ă&#x17E;ar sem N er nĂşmer dags innan ĂĄrs, t.d. 1. janĂşar: N = 1. TĂmahorn sĂłlar (Ď&#x2030;) er horniĂ° milli stĂśĂ°u sĂłlar Ă sĂłlargangi og stefnu sĂłlar frĂĄ suĂ°ri. HorniĂ° fer hĂŚkkandi Ă vestur og minnkandi Ă austur. Ă&#x161;treikningar miĂ°ast viĂ° sannan sĂłlartĂma sem er sĂĄ tĂmi sem fylgir sĂłl Ăžannig aĂ° sĂłl er Ă hĂĄsuĂ°ri kl. 12:00. Bein geislun reiknast sem mismunur heildar- og Ăłbeinnar geislunar đ??źđ?&#x2018;? = đ??źđ?&#x2018;Ą â&#x2C6;&#x2014; (1 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;&#x2DC;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; )

(8)

Ă&#x17E;egar bĂşiĂ° var aĂ° skipta mĂŚldri heildargeislun upp Ă beina- og Ăłbeina geislun var Ăştreikningur inngeislunar mĂśgulegur ĂĄ flĂśt meĂ° valfrjĂĄlsa stefnu og halla frĂĄ lĂĄrĂŠttu.

Geislun ĂĄ hallandi flĂśt

FlĂśtur meĂ° halla ď ˘ fĂŚr mismikla geislun, eftir ĂžvĂ hvort geislunin er bein, eĂ°a dreifĂ°. MeĂ° notkun breytistuĂ°la, đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;? og đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018; , mĂĄ skrifa heildargeislun ĂĄ hallandi flĂśt sem đ??źđ?&#x2018;&#x2021; = đ??źđ?&#x2018;? đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;? đ??źđ??´đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC; + đ??źđ?&#x2018;&#x2018; đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;&#x2018;

(9)

BreytistuĂ°ull fyrir beina geislun đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;? rĂŚĂ°st af hvernig flĂśtur snĂ˝r m.t.t. stefnu geisla sĂłlar (Axaopoulos, 2015): cos đ?&#x153;&#x192;

đ?&#x2018;&#x2026;đ?&#x2018;? = đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x153;&#x192;

( 10 )

đ?&#x2018;?

Inngeislunarhorn fyrir hallandi flĂśt rĂŚĂ°st af breiddargrĂĄĂ°u staĂ°ar ÎŚ , stjĂśrnubreidd đ?&#x203A;ż , tĂmahorni sĂłlar Ď&#x2030; , halla panels frĂĄ lĂĄrettu đ?&#x203A;˝ og stefnuhorni panels đ?&#x203A;žđ?&#x2018; (mĂŚlt eins og tĂmahorn sĂłlar), Ăž.e. stefna hans 0Â° Ă suĂ°ur, + Ă vestur og - Ă austur. Inngeislunarhorn beinnar geislunar, horniĂ° milli sĂłlargeislunar og normals ĂĄ flĂśt, var metiĂ° sem đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x153;&#x192; = sin đ?&#x203A;ż sin ÎŚ cos đ?&#x203A;˝ â&#x2C6;&#x2019; cos ÎŚ sinď ¤ sin đ?&#x203A;˝ cos đ?&#x203A;žđ?&#x2018; + cos đ?&#x203A;ż cos đ?&#x153;&#x201D; cos ÎŚ cos đ?&#x2018; + sin ÎŚ cosď ¤ cosď ˇ sin đ?&#x203A;˝ cos đ?&#x203A;žđ?&#x2018; + cos đ?&#x203A;ż sin đ?&#x203A;˝ sin đ?&#x203A;žđ?&#x2018; sin đ?&#x153;&#x201D; ( 11 ) ASHRAE breytistuĂ°ullinn (đ??źđ??´đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC; ) gefur til kynna, hĂĄĂ° innfallshorni, hversu stĂłr hluti geislunar nĂ˝tist fletinum (afgangurinn endurkastast), Ăž.e. 1 đ?&#x2018;?đ?&#x2018;&#x153;đ?&#x2018; đ?&#x153;&#x192;

đ??źđ??´đ?&#x2018;&#x20AC; = 1 â&#x2C6;&#x2019; đ?&#x2018;?0 (

â&#x2C6;&#x2019; 1)

( 12 )

Ăžar sem stuĂ°ullinn đ?&#x2018;?0 er gefinn sem 0,05 fyrir yfirborĂ° kĂsilsella (PVsyst, 2019). Gerandi rĂĄĂ° fyrir aĂ° Ăłbein geislun sĂŠ jafndreifĂ° og inngeislun ĂĄ hallandi flĂśt rĂŚĂ°st af Ăžeim hluta himinhvolfs sem flĂśturinn â&#x20AC;&#x17E;sĂŠrâ&#x20AC;&#x153; ĂžĂĄ var breytistuĂ°ull fyrir Ăłbeina geislun metinn (Axaopoulos, 2015) sem:

đ?&#x2018;šđ?&#x2019;&#x2026; =

đ?&#x;?+đ?&#x2019;&#x201E;đ?&#x2019;?đ?&#x2019;&#x201D;đ?&#x153;ˇ

( 13 )

đ?&#x;?

SamanburĂ°ur ĂĄ mĂŚldri og metinni heildarframleiĂ°slu sĂłlarpanela ĂĄ Ăžremur dĂśgum er sĂ˝ndur ĂĄ mynd 3. Fyrir 1. febrĂşar 2019 var ĂĄĂŚtluĂ° framleiĂ°sla 33,6 kWh en mĂŚld dĂŚgurframleiĂ°sla var 8,4 kWh, Ăžennan dag var 25 sm snjĂłhula. Ă&#x17E;etta gefur til kynna aĂ° aĂ°eins brot af sĂłlarorkunni komst Ă gegnum snjĂłinn ĂĄ Ăžessum annars sĂłlrĂka degi, og mestur munur Ă reiknaĂ°ri og mĂŚldri geislun er fyrir hallalitlu panelana. Ă hinum dĂśgunum var snjĂłlaust, ĂžungskĂ˝jaĂ° og lĂtilshĂĄttar rigning. ViĂ° Ăžessar kringumstĂŚĂ°ur fylgdust mĂŚlingar og reiknuĂ° gildi vel aĂ°, nema hvaĂ° framleiĂ°sla byrjaĂ°i hĂŚgar en gert er rĂĄĂ° fyrir Ă Ăştreikningum 1. mars sem gĂŚti skĂ˝rst af skuggamyndun meĂ°an sĂłl var lĂĄg. ReiknuĂ° framleiĂ°sla yfir 1. mars gefur 4,8 kWh og mĂŚld framleiĂ°sla var 3,2 kWh. Ă ĂŚtluĂ° framleiĂ°sla yfir 1. september var mun meiri og nĂŚr mĂŚlingum, Ăž.e. 55,5 kWh Ă samanburĂ°i viĂ° 51,3 kWh.

1. febrúar 2019 6000

W/m2

5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 10

1. mars 2019 1000

W/m2

800 600 400 200 0 8

1. september 2018 10000

W/m2

8000 6000 4000 2000 0 5

Klst. 20° Reiknað

20° Mælt

90° Reiknað

90° Mælt

Mynd 10: Samanburður á mældri (heil lína) og reiknaðri (brotalína) sólarinngeislun á þremur dögum.

Orkuframmistaða og arðsemi Tæknileg frammistaða sólarorkukerfis IKEA var metin út frá stuðlum frá Ayompe o.fl. (2011) og Adaramola og Vagnes (2014), sjá töflu 2. Fjárhagsleg gögn voru greind skv. stöðluðum aðferðum. Nánari upplýsingar um greiningarnar má finna í MS ritgerð Sindra Þrastarsonar (2019).

Tafla 10: Meðalframmistaða sólarsafnkerfis IKEA Mælikvarði Viðmiðunarstuðull

Enska Reference yield

Lýsing Hlutfall mældrar inngeislunar (kWh/m2/dag) og viðmiðunargeislunar (1 kW/m2)

Meðaltal 2,7 klst/dag

Safnkerfisstuðull

Array yield

1,94 klst/dag

Lokastuðull

Final yield

Hlutfall mælds jafnstraum (DC, kWh/dag) við uppgefið afl safnkerfis (IKEA: 17,55 kW) Hlutfall mælds riðstraums (AC) við uppgefið afl safnkerfis

Nýtingarhlutfall

Performance ratio

Hlutfall framleiddrar orku og hámarksframleiðslugetu

69%

Framleiðslugeta

Capacity factor

Hlutfall af framleiddri orku kerfis og þeirri orku sem kerfið hefði geta framleitt væri það með full afköst allan tímann (IKEA: 12,5 MWh / 153 MWh)

8,1%

Nýtni sólarsellu

PV module efficiency

9,8%

Skilvirkni safnkerfis

System efficiency

Skilvirkni spennubreytis

Inverter efficiency

Hlutfall mældrar jafnstraumsorku og heildargeislunar orku á láréttan flöt Hlutfall mældrar riðstraums orku og heildargeislunar orku á láréttan flöt Hlutfall mælds riðstraums og jafnstraums

1,89 klst/dag

9,4%

95,2%

Niðurstöður Sólarorka í Reykjavík Ísland er staðsett norðarlega í Evrópu og fjöldi sólartíma hér á landi því minni heldur en í löndum nær miðbaugi. Árleg heildargeislun sólar á láréttan flöt hefur verið mæld á klukkustundar fresti síðan 2008 í Reykjavík af Veðurstofu Íslands. Mánaðarleg geislun á tímabilinu 2008-2018 var að meðaltali minnst 1,8 kWh/m2 í desember og mest 140 kWh/m2 í júlí (mynd 4). Mánaðarlegt meðaltal er 64,8 kWh/m2 og heildargeislun yfir árið 780 kWh/m2. Bein geislun var metin sem ráðandi á ársgrundvelli, eða 55% af heildargeislun (sjá jöfnur 2-8), sem samræmist niðurstöðum á suðlægari breiddargráðum í mið-Evrópu (Axaopoulos, 2015). Óbein geislun frá himinhvolfi var hins vegar ráðandi á veturna. Mæld heildargeislun yfir athugunarárið var aðeins yfir meðaltali, eða 844 Wh/m2.

200 183

180 145

160

133

124

kWh/m2

140 120 77

100

80 49

60 40

28 19

20 -

Óbein geislun 2008-2018

Bein geislun 2008-2018

Óbein geislun, viðmiðunarár

Heildargeislun, viðmiðunarár

Mynd 4: Mánaðarleg meðalgeislun á láréttan flöt í Reykjavík á árunum 2008-2018 ásamt viðmiðunarári skipt í beina og óbeina geislun. Gögn: Veðurstofa Íslands (2019) Mælingar Veðurstofunnar (mynd 4) taka ekki tillit til snjóhulu vegna þess að mælitækið bræðir snjó af sér jafnóðum. Að meðaltali má búast við að snjóhula liggi yfir lítið hallandi sólarpanelum helming allra daga í desember til mars (tafla 3). Hægt er að fá sólarpanela sem bræða af sér snjó með utanaðkomandi orku en ólíklegt er að slíkt borgi sig þar sem inngeislun sem tapast vegna snjóhulu er ekki mikil í samhengi ársgeislunar. Tafla 11: Hlutfall daga með snjóhulu innan hvers mánuðar á tímabilinu 1981-2010 (Jónsson, 2012). Mánuður

Jan Feb

Mar

Apr

Maí

Jún

Júl

Ágú

Sept Okt

Nóv

Des

Meðalsnjóhula [%]

Mat á inngeislun á hallandi flöt Magn beinnar geislunar ræðst af því hvernig flöturinn snýr m.t.t. stefnu geisla sólar. Óbein geislun ræðst hins vegar einungis af halla flatar. Áhrif mismunandi halla frá láréttu  og stefnu sólarpanela voru metin með hjálp jafna 9-13. Kjörhalli sólarpanela yfir vetur (okt-mars) var 67,5-90° en 0-45° á sumrin (mynd 5a). Ljóst er að 22,5° halli skilar mjög góðum niðurstöðum yfir sumarið og 67,5° halli yfir veturinn. Uppsetning í suður skilar mestri inngeislun þar sem geislar sólar vara lengst í þá stefnu yfir árið (mynd 5b). Að snúa lóðréttum panel um 10°-20° í austur eða vestur hefur ekki ýkja mikil áhrif á heildargeislun. Uppsetning í vesturátt gefur meiri inngeislun heldur en suðurátt yfir hásumarið. Austurátt sem nær morgunsólinni gefur heldur minna en suður og vestur. Uppsetning í norður gefur minnsta orku og stafar það af mjög takmarkaðri beinni sólarorku. Til að mynda er nær engin bein geislun á tímabilinu októbermars þar sem sólin rís og sest áður en geislar hennar ná að lenda á yfirborðinu er snýr í norður. Mesta beina geislunin fæst þegar yfirborðinu er hallað um 51° frá láréttu og mesta óbeina geislun þegar flötur 48

er láréttur (0°) til að fanga alla geislun frá himinhvolfinu. Heildargeislun var mest á flötinn, það er samtala beinnar og óbeinnar geislunar, þegar yfirborðinu var hallað um 40° frá láréttu. Ef á að sækjast eftir sem mestri ársgeislun skiptir hallinn yfir sumarmánuðina mestu máli. a)

Mánaðarleg inngeislun (kW/m2)

200

Halli flatar (°): 0 22,5

150

45 67,5 100

Mánaðarleg inngeislun (kW/m2)

b) 140 120

Suður

100

Vestur

Norður

Austur

40 20 -

Mynd 11: Reiknuð framleiðsla mánaða m.v. 1 kW uppsett afl; áhrif a) halla á panel snúandi í suður og b) stefnu sólarpanels með 90° halla við 64°N fyrir viðmiðunarárið september 2018 til ágúst 2019.

Framleidd orka IKEA 3000 2619 2500

2128 1825

kWh

2000 1500

1247

1175

1000

1949

725 430

500 53

215

107

Mynd 12: Framleidd orka frá safnkerfinu hjá IKEA Yfir viðmiðunarárið framleiddu sólarpanelar á þaki IKEA 10.105 kWh og á gaflinum 2394 kWh eða samtals 12.499 kWh (DC). Framleidd mánaðarleg orka var á bilinu 25 kWh í desember og 2,6 MWh í júní sem er rúmlega 100 faldur munur (mynd 5). Meðaltal mánaðarlegrar framleiðslu var því um 1042 kWh. Mánaðarlegt meðaltal frá sólarsellunum var milli 1,4 kWh/kW í desember og 149 kWh/kW í júní. Sköluð árleg orka frá kerfinu yfir viðmiðunarárið, heildarframleiðsla deilt með hámarksafli, var 749 kWh/kW fyrir panela með 20° halla og 591 kWh/kW á gaflinum við 90°. Mest framleiðsla mældist þegar sólin var lengst á lofti, nálægt sumarsólstöðum 21. júní og minnsta framleiðslan þegar sólin var styst á lofti, nærri vetrarsólstöðum 21. desember. Framleiðslan yfir vetrarmánuðina (nóvember til febrúar) var mjög lág í samanburði við aðra mánuði ársins. Þetta má rekja til lægri inngeislunar og snjóhulu yfir safnkerfið. Einnig kom í ljós að aðalbygging IKEA varpaði skugga á panelana þegar sólin var lágt á lofti (yfir vetrarmánuðina) snemma morguns. Eins varð ljóst að sólarpanelarnir voru of þétt lagðir á þakinu og vörpuðu skugga hver á annan þegar sólin var lágt á lofti þrátt fyrir lítinn halla á panelum. Inngeislun sem tapaðist vegna skugga er ekki talin vera mikil þar sem hún átti sér stað þegar sólin er lágt á lofti og stór hluti inngeislunar hefði tapast vegna endurkasts frá panelunum. Skuggamyndun og snjóhula er líkleg til þess að hafa áhrif á samanburð reiknaðra og mældra gilda. Það er því ljóst að snjóhula hafði áhrif á panelana sem voru á þakinu við 20° og framleiðslan í þeim datt alveg niður þar til snjóa leysti. Snjóhulan hafði hins vegar ekki mikil áhrif á panelana á gaflinum við 90°.

Orkuframmistaða Mánaðarleg frammistaða sólarsellukerfis IKEA er sýnd á mynd 6 og meðaltöl yfir viðmiðunar árið eru gefin í töflu 2. Hæst gildi viðmiðunar-, safnkerfis- og lokastuðuls mældust í júní, 4,8- 5,9 kWh/(kW-dag), og lægst í desember, <0,10 kWh/(kW-dag). Nýtingarhlutfallið, þ.e. hlutfall framleiddrar orku af framleiðslugetu kerfisins, var á bilinu 36% í janúar til 87% í september en meðaltal ársins var 69%. Framleiðslugetan (tafla 2) var að meðaltali 8,1% yfir allt árið, lægst 0,2% í desember og hæst 20,7% í júní. Skilvirkni sólarsellu var 9,8% og safnkerfis 9,4%. Skilvirkni spennubreytis var mjög stöðug í kringum 97% en í desember og janúar féll nýtingin niður í 86% þegar heildarframleiðsla kerfisins er mjög lítil og spennubreytirinn afkastar minna.

6,0

kWh/kW

5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 Viรฐmiรฐunarsstuรฐull

Safnkerfisstuรฐull

Lokastuรฐull

Nรฝtingarhlutfall

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 16%

100%

14% 95%

12%

Skilvirkni [%]

10%

90%

8% 6%

Skilvirkni sรณlarsellu

Skilvirkni safnkerfis

Skilvikni spennubreytis

80% 75%

25%

Framleiรฐslugeta

85%

20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

Mynd 13: Frammistaรฐa sรณlarorkukerfis IKEA รก fyrstu 12 rekstrarmรกnuรฐum. 51

Skilvirkni spennubreytis [%]

70% 60%

Heildartap

Snjóhula

25 20

50% 40%

30%

20% 5

10% 0%

Snjóhula (dagar í mánuði)

Heildartap kerfis sem hlutfall af viðmiðunarstuðli (%)

Eins og rætt var að framan var mæld framleiðsla alltaf lægri en reiknuð framleiðsla (mynd 3). Skýrist það að mestu leyti af óvissuþáttum í útreikningi tengdum umhverfis- og kerfislægum þáttum sem erfitt er að taka tillit til í fræðilegum útreikningi framleiðslunnar. Þá sér í lagi skuggamyndun og snjóhulu. Á mynd 7 má sjá heildartap kerfis sem hlutfall af viðmiðunarstuðli hvers mánaðar.

Mynd 14: Heildartap kerfis sem hlutfall af viðmiðunarstuðli. Dagar snjóhulu úr gögnum frá Veðurstofunni (2019).

Arðsemi Stofnkostnaðurinn á sólarsafnkerfi IKEA var um 8 milljónir (allar tölur er íslenskar krónur með VSK). Efniskostnaðurinn var 4 milljónir sem innifelur bæði sólarsellur og uppsetningarbúnað. Valdir voru standar sem lyftu sólarsellunum upp um 20° án þess að skemma vatnsverndarlagið á þaki IKEA. Uppsetningarkostnaður fór fram úr áætlun og endaði sem 4 milljónir. Smíða þurfti stálfestingar fyrir sellurnar á gaflinn svo hægt væri að festa þær upp. Í þetta fór mikil vinna og sækja þurfti ráðgjöf sérfræðinga. Einnig var kostnaður við tengingar inn á töflu umtalsverður. Útskýrist því hár vinnuliður við uppsetningu með þeim hætti. Kostnaður við hvert uppsett kW var því 456 þúsund krónur. Árlegur rekstrarkostnaður á safnkerfinu var áætlaður 1% af stofnkostnaði eða um 80 þúsund kr. Sá kostnaðarliður er aðallega vegna þess að skipta þarf um spennubreyti á kerfinu á u.þ.b. 10 ára fresti og einnig má gera ráð fyrir minniháttar viðhaldi og endurnýjun á kerfinu. Yfir athugunarárið var framleidd raforka inn á kerfið hjá IKEA 12.1 MWh (AC) sem sparaði IKEA 182 þúsund kr. yfir tímabilið í innkaupum á raforku frá dreifikerfinu. Miðað við raforkuverð í þéttbýli 15 kr./kWh og hækkun á raforkuverði í takt við vísitölu neysluverðs er endurgreiðslutíminn á stofnkostnaði við verkefnið hjá IKEA 24 ár. Ef sama uppsetning á safnkerfi væri staðsett í dreifbýli þar sem raforkuverðið er 19,5 kr./kWh væri verkefnið 21 ár að borga sig upp án tillits til ávöxtunarkröfu. Ef miðað er við 2,5% ávöxtunarkröfu í verkefninu á ábyrgðartíma kerfisins sem er 15 ár, er kerfið enn langt frá því að borga sig upp í dreif- og þéttbýli. Það tekur kerfið 25 ár að borga sig upp í dreifbýli en 30 ár í þéttbýli miðað við þessar forsendur. Hins vegar er líftíminn á sellunum sagður a.m.k. 40 ár og er allt umfram 25 og 30 ár að koma vel út (tafla 4). Ávöxtunarkrafan fyrir verkefnið var sett í 2,5% svo hún væri

jöfn verðbólgumarkmiði Seðlabanka Íslands. Eðlilegt þótti að ávöxtunarkrafan á verkefnið væri lág þar sem um tilraunarverkefni er að ræða. Tafla 12: Núvirði safnkerfis hjá IKEA. Tími (ár) 15 25 40

Dreifbýli - 4.258.242 260.962 11.703.884

Þéttbýli - 5.350.304 - 1.985.556 6.693.398

Umræður Tæknileg frammistaða sólarsellukerfa á norðurslóðum Halli og bil milli sólarsella er venjulega hagað með því móti að mestri mögulegri framleiðslu sé náð. Í þeim tilgangi má auka halla panela yfir vetrartímann og minnka yfir sumarið þegar sólin er hátt á lofti. Vinsæl nálgun er að setja halla panels jafnt breiddargráðu til þess hámarka geislun yfir árið. Þá má auka hallann um 15° til að ná hámarks geislun yfir veturinn og minnka hallann um 15° til að ná hámarks geislun yfir sumarið (Stanciu & Stanciu, 2014). Slík nálgun útheimtir greiðan aðgang að þaki, og að festingar við þak séu stillanlegar. Eins og áður hefur komið var safnkerfi IKEA ekki með möguleikann á að breyta halla á panelum, en á móti kom að tveir mismunandi hallar voru á þeim (þak og veggur). Í samanburði við aðrar rannsóknir á norðurslóðum, var nýtni safnkerfisins IKEA á Íslandi meira en 15% lægri (sjá töflu 5). Þessi lága nýtni skýrist að hluta af umhverfis þáttum eins og snjóhulu, skugga frá nærliggjandi byggingu, og skugga frá panelum hvorn á annan. Tafla 13: Samanburður þriggja sólarsellu verkefna á norðurslóðum. Staðog GPS Halli, Gerð Sköluð Lokagangsetning (landhæð) Stefna sólarsellu orka stuðull [kWh/kW] [kWh/kWdag] Ås, Noregi, 60°N, 11°A 37°, S Ein- og 931 2,5 1 2013 (105 m.y.s) fjölkr. Dublin, Írlandi, 53°N, 6°A -- 53°, S Einkr. 885 2,4 2 2008 IKEA, Íslandi 64°N, 22°A 20° Fjölkr. 712 1,89 2018 (38 m.y.s) 90°, S 1 (Adaramola & Vågnes, 2014) 2 (Ayompe, Duffy, McCormack, & Conlon, 2011)

Uppgefin nýtni sellu [%]

Nýtingarhlutfall [%]

13,3 - 14,5

17,2

81,5

16,5

Hindranir Þessi rannsókn beinir athygli að því að stofnkostnaður getur verið mjög hár ef ekki er hugað að frágangi og fyrirkomulagi panela strax í upphafi hönnunar byggingar. Huga þarf að festingum panela strax í upphafi, því sumar festingar geta skemmt vatnsvörn þaks. Ef fergja þarf festingarnar þá setur það skorður á halla panela. Til að mynda var talið óráðlegt að setja panela á þaki IKEA í kjörhalla (45°) vegna vinda. Að sama skapi getur 45° halli valdið skuggamyndun sem rýrir framleiðslugetuna eða setur hömlur á hversu marga panela megi setja á láréttan flöt. Þá rýrir tíð snjókoma og skafrenningur, framleiðslugetu lítið hallandi panela, og mögulega líka lóðréttra panela (sjá mynd 2).

Endurgreiðslutími fyrstu verkefna í núverandi umhverfi er líklegur til að vera langur á svæðum sem hafa aðgang að ódýrri raforku frá vatnsafls- og jarðvarmavirkjunum. Til þess að hámarka nýtnina er best að selja umframorku inn á sameiginlegt rafmagnskerfi. . Það er ekki aðlaðandi fyrir örvirkjanir að tengjast netinu vegna kostnaðar og ekki sjálfsagt að netið vilji fá mikið inn af litlum, „óstöðugum“, orkugjöfum og rekstrarumhverfi örvirkjanna takmarkað.

Tækifæri fyrir húseigendur og atvinnurekendur Fyrir venjulegt heimili sem notar um 10-12 kWh á dag þyrftu alltaf að koma til rafgeymar eða tenging við dreifikerfið svo heimilið yrði ekki rafmagnslaust yfir vetrartímann. Yfir sumarmánuðina gæti 3 kW kerfi þjónustað heimili yfir daginn. Þau svæði sem eru sérstaklega áhugaverð til uppsetningar á sólarsellum eru köld svæði (þar sem jarðvarma nýtur ekki við) og einangruð svæði (sem ekki eru tengd við dreifikerfi raforkunnar). Á köldum svæðum fer upphitun húsa fram með raforku og á einangruðum svæðum er orkugjafinn jarðefnaeldsneyti sem ekki telst æskilegt. Til þess að þetta gangi eru rafgeymar eða tenging við dreifikerfið nauðsynleg til að anna rafmagnseftirspurn á nóttunni, þegar safnkerfi framleiða ekki orku. Þó svo að sólarsellur nái líklegast ekki að uppfylla alla orkuþörf heimilis yfir veturinn er vel hægt að hugsa sér að sólarsellur sjái um hluta orkuöflunar og geti reynst vel í að minnka álag á dreifikerfi raforkunnar. Áhugavert væri að skoða möguleikann á því að tengja sólarsellukerfi við dreifikerfi raforkunnar, þá væri framleiðsla umfram notkun seld út á dreifikerfið og ef þörf væri á orku yrði hún aðkeypt. Áhugavert væri einnig að skoða möguleikann á því að setja upp sólarsellukerfi sem myndi hlaða beint inn á rafmagnsbíla á meðan þeir standa utan við vinnustað fólks á vinnutíma.

Tækifæri fyrir stjórnvöld Erlendis eru víða í boði styrkir eða aðrir hvatar fyrir aðila sem vilja framleiða orku sem einkum er til staðbundinnar notkunar. Í Svíþjóð er styrkja- eða niðurgreiðslukerfi til að styðja við endurnýjanlega orku en í öðrum löndum (t.d. Danmörku og Finnlandi) er notað kerfi sem byggir á kaupum endurnýjanlegrar orku inn á dreifikerfið sem byggir á hagkvæmasta vali hverju sinni (sjá samantektir á reglugerðum á http://www.res-legal.eu). Umhverfislega (og kostnaðarlega) er ekki heppilegt að þurfa að nota rafgeyma til að geyma orku og því áhugaverðari lausn að smáframleiðandinn noti eigin orku þegar hún er í boði en kaupi öðrum kosti orku af dreifineti. Erlendis er þá boðið upp á að umframorka sé seld út á netið til jöfnunar við orku sem þarf að kaupa þaðan. Þessu fylgja vissulega vandkvæði s.s. að staðbundna orkan verður ekki endilega til þegar orkuþurrð er á dreifinetinu og tryggja þarf að orkan sé rétt riðluð fyrir tenginetið. Þrátt fyrir þetta er áhugi á þessum aðferðum þar sem dreifð orkuframleiðsla muni gagnast dreifinetinu og umræðan snýst m.a. um hvernig þetta geti gagnast til að draga úr þörf á að styrkja dreifinet í borgum. Þrátt fyrir góðan aðgang hérlendis að öðrum valkostum í orkuframleiðslu, þá er áhugavert að skoða hvaða tækifæri felast í dreifðri orkuframleiðslu, hvort sem um er að ræða vind- eða sólarorku.

Ályktanir Megin tilgangur þessa verkefnis var að meta hvort sólarpanelar væru ákjósanlegur kostur á Íslandi. Horft var á framleiðslugetu, nýtni og arðsemi. Niðurstaðan er sú að töluverðar hindranir standa í vegi fyrir því að sólarorka beri sig í þéttbýli sem hefur aðgang að ódýrri endurnýjanlegri raforku s.s. jarðvarma eða vatnsafli. Sér í lagi er uppsetningarkostnaður hár meðal frumherja, og rekstrarábati takmarkaður. Þá eru engar ívilnanir frá stjórnvöldum, og kostnaðarsamt fyrir húseigendur að selja raforkuna á kerfið þegar hún er ekki nýtt á staðnum. Þá getur tíð snjóhula og skuggi dregið úr nýtni sólarsella, og getur takmarkað þéttleika þeirra á þökum. Uppsetning IKEA á 65 sólarpanelum er stærsta sólarorkuverkefni sem ráðist hefur verið í á Íslandi. Mikilvægt er að halda áfram að draga lærdóm af slíkri frumherja reynslu með frekari rannsóknum. Með lækkandi stofnkostnaði og hækkandi nýtni í sólarsellum er líklegt að rekstrarumhverfi þeirra verði hagstæðari. Sólarsellur hafa alla burði til þess að nýtast vel hér á landi, eins og þær hafa gert í nágrannalöndum s.s. Noregi og Svíþjóð. Mikilvægt er að greiða fyrir rekstrargrundvelli sólarpanela með regluverki, og ívilnunum, til þess að gera raforkuframleiðslu á Íslandi fjölbreyttari.

Þakkir Veðurstofu Íslands og IKEA á Íslandi er þakkað fyrir aðgang að gögnum sem lögðu grunn að verkefninu. Þórarni Ævarssyni, fyrrum framkvæmdastjóra IKEA og Ólafi Davíð Guðmundssyni hjá Hlaða ehf. er þakkað fyrir góðar ráðleggingar.

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Kristján Kristjánsson. (2007). Sól & vindur. Íslensk orka, 19. Kymakis, E., Kalykakis, S., & Papazoglou, T. M. (2009). Performance analysis of a grid connected photovoltaic park on the island of Crete. Energy Conversion and Management, 50(3), 433-438. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2008.12.009 Lam, J. C., & Li, D. H. (1996). Correlation between Global Solar Radiation and its Direct and Diffuse Components. Elsevier - Building and environment, 31(6), 527-535. Mondol, J. D., Yohanis, Y., Smyth, M., & Norton, B. (2006). Long term performance analysis of a grid connected photovoltaic system in Northern Ireland. Energy Conversion and Management, 47(18-19), 2925-2947. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2006.03.026 Orkustofnun. (9. Mars 2015). Raforkuframleiðsla ársins 2014. Sótt frá Orkustofnun: https://orkustofnun.is/orkustofnun/frettir/nr/1645 PVGIS. (2012). Photovoltaic solar electricity potential in european countries. PVGIS. PVsyst. (13. 06 2019). PVsyst. Sótt frá Array incidence loss (IAM): http://files.pvsyst.com/help/iam_loss.htm Sólheimar. (10. 01 2019). Orkugarður Sólheima. Sótt frá Sólheimar: http://www.solheimar.is/sesseljuhus/orkugardur-solheima/ Stanciu, C., & Stanciu, D. (2014). Optimum tilt angle for flat plate collectors all over the World – A declination dependence formula and comparisons of three solar radiation models. Energy Conversion and Management, 81, 133-143. Veðurstofa Íslands. (01. 05 2019). Daglegt yfirlit veðurs í Reykjavík. Sótt frá https://www.vedur.is/vedur/vedurfar/daglegt/reykjavik/

The Evolution of Project Management in Iceland: The Path to a Profession - Paper 1 of 3 in a series on the history, status and future of project management in Iceland Helgi Þór Ingasona, Þórður Víkingur Friðgeirssona, Haukur Ingi Jónassona a School of Technology, Reykjavik University, Menntavegi 1, 101 Reykjavík Fyrirspurnir: Helgi Þór Ingason helgithor@ru.is Greinin barst 23. janúar 2019 Samþykkt til birtingar 16. desember 2019

Ágrip Upphaf verkefnastjórnunar um miðja 20. öld fólst í þróun aðferða innan fræðasviðs aðgerðarannsókna, til að gera áætlanir fyrir tímabundin og afmörkuð viðfangsefni. Síðan þá hefur verkefnastjórnun þróast ört og í dag er hún viðurkennd sem mikilvæg alþjóðleg atvinnugrein með fræðilegar grunnstoðir, skilgreind hæfniviðmið, alþjóðlega staðla og tilvísanir í bestu starfshætti. Ísland er athyglisvert dæmi um það hvernig ný atvinnugrein verður til í þróuðu vestrænu samfélagi. Á Íslandi hefur orðið til blómlegur vettvangur fyrir verkefnastjórnun. Þessa þróun má meðal annars merkja með framboði vandaðra námslína á grunnstigi og framhaldsstigi háskóla, en einnig í vaxandi eftirspurn eftir faglegum verkefnastjórum á flestum sviðum atvinnulífsins, bæði opinberrar starfsemi og einkageirans. Hins vegar er einnig athyglisvert að þegar kemur að svokallaðri verkefnastjórnsýslu er Ísland skemmra á veg komið en hefðbundin viðmiðunarlönd eins og Noregur, Bretland og Svíþjóð. Hér er meðal annars vísað til þess að í þessum viðmiðunarlöndunum má finna skýr og samræmd viðmið við gerð áætlana og undirbúning ákvarðana um að ráðast í stór opinber innviðaverkefni. Verkefnastjórnunarfélag Íslands gæti tekið enn sterkara leiðandi hlutverk í að fara fyrir þróun fagsviðs verkefnastjórnunar á Íslandi. Lykilorð: Alþjóðleg þróun, verkefnastjórnun, faggrein, þróunin á Íslandi.

Abstract The birth of project management as discipline during the mid 20th century was not the birth of a profession, but rather an important enhancement of planning techniques to tackle temporary and timelimited endeavors. Project management has since evolved and matured to be currently recognized as an important international profession with unique accredited procedures, international standards, best practice references and theoretical platforms. Iceland is an interesting example of how the path to a profession is paved in a developed Western society. Entrepreneurs channeled international development into business-driven projects, and the academia followed the suit. Iceland currently has a thriving forum for project management as a professional discipline. This development is arguably best displayed by some impressive educational programs that were developed by path-finding consultants, within universities and post-graduate study lines, and in the increasing demand for professional project managers in most areas of public and private sectors. However, it is also noteworthy that in one specific 57

domain Iceland is atypical among countries often seen as international benchmarks, e.g. Norway, the UK and Sweden, and that is the fractional public project governance framework, which might also explain why the Icelandic Project Management Association has not yet fully actualized its full potential as a professional leader for project management in Iceland. Keywords: International development, project management, profession, Icelandic development.

Introduction Project management is sometimes said to have emerged in the 1950s when techniques like PERT and CPM were developed. This development was driven by the demands of the militaries, and various industries, where there was a need to reduce development time, increase efficiency in management, and build up more capability in establishing, planning, executing and controlling increasingly complex projects. Projects have, of course, been planned and executed throughout history, but in the first half of the 20th century management science emerged with the time and motion studiesâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;attributed to people like Fredrick W. Taylorâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;as a major feature of scientific management. The Gantt chart was an example of this new way of thinking, and it became well known as a production planning tool in the 1920s, and then became a popular way of representing project schedules graphically. The period of 1950 to 1979 began with the emergence of systems project management, with emphasis on holism, hierarchy, boundaries and interfaces. This was initiated through network planning and the introduction of CPM by DuPont as an activity-oriented tool for the planning and controlling of construction projects and PERT, an eventoriented network scheduling system, applying statistical calculations as a part of the Polaris missile program in the USA (Morris, 2013). There was also an increased concern for people at work, and project management started to gain recognition as a specific profession. Peter Morris (2013) defined Brigadier Bernard Schriever as the father of modern project management. Schriever led the Atlas program, during which the first intercontinental ballistic missile was developed and tested in 1956. Schriever applied concurrent engineering and defined the role of the project manager as a person with both technical and budget authority for the project. Gaddis (1959) wrote a paper in the Harvard Business Review entitled, "The project manager", where he shared his thoughts on this new, important role.

An important milestone on the pathway to becoming a profession was the establishment of the first professional project management associations. The International Association for Project Management (IPMA) was founded in 1965 (under the name "Internet"), the Project Management Institute (USA) in 1969, and the Association for Project Management (APM) in 1972. Emphasis on the project managerÂ´s interpersonal skills became much stronger in the 1980s, including emphasis on the need to define more accurately the competences of project managers. The knowledge bases of the professional project management associations emerged in the 1980s with the introduction of PMBoK by PMI in 1980, and the APM body of knowledge in 1991. The project management associations introduced certification programs, based on their competence baselines. PMI started with its PMP certification in 1984, APM introduced its program in 1986, and IPMA started with its certification program in 1998.

Between 1980 and 2000, due to technological advancement worldwide communication became easier and cheaper, and this influenced the project management discipline. Graduate level educational programs, specializing in project management, had already been introduced by the 1980s, and in the mid 1990s, dozens of university degrees in project management were available (Morris, 2013). Their 58

number grew the following years and Carbone & Gholston (2004) report that many colleges and universities offer project management educational programs. Ingason & Jonasson (2008) reported that in 2008 there were 5 graduate level project management programs in 12 Universities in Europe (some were taught in cooperation between few universities), 7 graduate level programs in 7 Universities in the USA and 5 graduate level programs in 5 universities in Australia. Gradually, project management gained recognition, with fast-growing professional associations and their doctrines of best practices. Interest in project management grew stronger and this interest extended to the notion of seeing project management as an approach to enterprise management. Program management was introduced in the 1990s, as well as maturity models, and portfolio management emerged in the 2010s (Neal and Harpham, 2012 and Lock D., 2013).

A certain time shift can be defined in 2006, when IPMA published the 3rd version of its competence baseline and expressed the behavioral and contextual competences for project management as specific competence dimensions, side by side with the traditional technical competence dimension. Another important milestone was the publication of international standards, ISO10006 in 2003 on Quality management systems—guidelines on quality management in projects, and more importantly, the ISO21500 in 2012—guidance on project management. It is also worth mentioning the Agile movement with its roots in IT projects, and the view that projects should be deployed in incremental iterations rather than by a linear process. The critical milestone in the development of Agile project management as a discipline, was arguably the publication of the Manifesto for Agile Software Development in 2001 (www.agilemanifesto.org, March 8th, 2017). The iterative and autonomous approach of Agile project management is in some principles different from the roles and techniques of traditional linear or compressed project management, but, in spite of this, it is now being included in the practical doctrines of PMI, APM and IPMA.

The development of project management as a profession in Iceland followed a similar pattern even though this evolution took place a little later in time compared to the timeline in figure 1. Icelandic engineers participated in the first IPMA world congress in Vienna in 1967, to learn about the CPM method. This method was then applied in the Icelandic construction industry by a limited group of practitioners. Another milestone in the progress of project management in Iceland was the foundation of the Icelandic Project Management Association in 1984. From the beginning, this association has actively participated in IPMA, and Nordnet—the collaboration platform of the Nordic project management associations—and the development of project management in Iceland has thus been influenced greatly by the development of IPMA and Nordnet.

Figure 1. The timeline of Project Management (loosely based on Neal and Harpham (2012) but extended by the authors).

In this paper, we will look at the development of the project management discipline in Iceland. We will mirror it in the development of project management worldwide, but more importantly we will relate it to ideas about how a profession emerges and gains strength through certain steps. We will thus try to shed light on the present status of project management in Iceland and lay the foundations for further work in this area with the intention of assessing the importance of project management within the Icelandic economy.

The research questions we intend to answer in this paper are: 1. How did the project management profession emerge and evolve in Iceland? 2. What are the historical milestones and influencing factors in the development of the project management profession in Iceland? 3. What is the present status of project management as a profession in Iceland? To answer these questions, our theoretical overview will focus on the building blocks of professions and how they evolve, and how project management reflects these ideas. Our research method will be to accumulate written and verbal references about the progress of project management in Iceland and compare these with the general ideas about how professions evolve, project management in particular. Examples of specific projects will be given; they have been selected by us as they are considered, in one way or another, to represent important milestones in the evolution of project management in Iceland.

We will discuss our findings and speculate on how project management in Iceland might evolve in the near future.

Theory The basic attributes of a profession were described by Abraham Flexner almost 100 years ago, as explained by Bowie in 1991. A profession possesses and draws upon a store of knowledge. It secures a theoretical perception of the phenomena with which it deals. It applies its knowledge to the practical solution of problems. It strives to add to and improve its knowledge. It passes on what it knows to novice generations, not randomly but deliberately and formally. It establishes criteria of admission, good practice and conduct. And finally, it has an unselfish spirit. Wilson (1932) discussed the question "what is a profession", and wondered if business could be called a profession, according to the definitions of Flexner. According to Wilson, this was not the case. Wilson, a Harvard professor, suggested that to fulfill the definitions of Flexner, theory and practice should be harnessed together and driven side by side, rather than one following the other. He suggested that in time, business would develop and become rather more of a science than it was in his day.

In 1964, Harold L. Wilensky published his paper "The professionalization of everyone." He pointed out some limitations to professionalizationâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;knowledge or doctrine too general, vague, narrow or specificâ&#x20AC;&#x201D; for an exclusive knowledge base. He described the process towards professionalization through a set of stepsâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;training school, university school, local association, national association, state licensing law and code of ethics. The question, whether management is a profession, was asked by Edgar Schein, professor at Sloan School of Management at MIT in 1968, in his article entitled "Organizational Socialization and the Profession of Management." To answer this question, he defined some of the basic characteristics of professionalism. Professional decisions are made by means of general principles. They imply knowledge in a specific area in which a person is an expert, not a generalized body of wisdom. The professional's relations with his clients are objective. A professional achieves his status by accomplishment. The decisions of a professional are assumed to be on behalf of his client and independent of self-interest. A professional typically relates to a voluntary association of fellow professionals and accepts only their authority as a sanction of his own behavior. And finally, a professional can be said to be an advising agent who is supposed to know better than his/her client what might be good for him. This can put the client in a vulnerable an exposed position, which has led to the development of codes of ethics and professional conduct, to protect the client. Edgar Schein reflects on these different characteristics and concludes that, on several bases, management is a profession, but, on other bases, it has not yet progressed to become a full profession. Abbott (1988) wrote about the theory of professions. He defined professions in a general way, as exclusive occupational groups applying abstract knowledge to particular cases. But Abbott claimed that the most important aspect of professions are the control of knowledge, skills and work tasks. An important contribution here was to shed light on how occupations define their right to control the provision of particular services and activities, hence inter-professional competition. Abbott analyzed the nature of relationships between professional occupations and how they are shaped over time.

In view of Abbott's findings, one might wonder about the status of project management within general management theory, and the role of professional associations in shaping project management as a profession. In recent years, the role of professional associations in defining project management as a 61

profession has in fact been given much attention. Crawford (2004) explains how the project management professional associations originated as communities of practice - informal gatherings and forums for networking, exchange of ideas and information. Communities of practice (Wenger and Snyder, HBR 2000) are formed when people doing similar things realize they have shared interests. They understand that there are opportunities to improve their practices and their performance by sharing knowledge and experience. The members are informally connected by this shared expertise and passion, some meet regularly, but others communicate through digital networks. Wenger and Snyder (2000) conclude that what characterizes a community of practice is that itÂ´s purpose is to develop the members' knowledge capabilities and that it is held together by passion, commitment and identification with the groupâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s expertise. The project management professional associations as we know them today began as communities of practice, according to these definitions. All of this has led to the development of project management as an independent discipline and an ongoing discussion on if project management could, or should, be regarded as a profession.

Definitions of a distinct body of knowledge and of standards based on that body of knowledge are ways of marking professional territory (Morris et al., 2000). Assessment and awarding of qualifications provide a process whereby professionals are recognized as meeting the standards and references of a profession by demonstrating mastery of the body of knowledge and either minimum or graduated levels of proficiency or competence (Dean, 1997). A body of knowledge, standards, and related assessment and qualification processes can therefore be seen as essential building blocks in the formation and recognition of a profession. Furthermore, it is assumed that a profession provides an important service in society (Dean, 1997).

Crawford (2004) defined building blocks of a profession as a five-level system. The foundation of this system is research, on which a body of knowledge and standards are based and demonstrate the plan and structure of the profession on which the professional standards are based. Education and training support the standards and at the top of the system are qualifications, based on the standards. The difference between a body of knowledge and a standard is not always easy to define. Crawford (2004) pointed out that in the field of project management, there is a strong link between the definition of a body of knowledge and the development of standards. Jonasson and Ingason (2013) wrote about professionalism in their book Project Ethics stating that being a professional is not just a career path, but a combination of education and training that promotes a sense of motivation and a moral sense. They assume that a professional is very loyal towards clients and has a positive attitude towards the profession. Representatives of traditional professions are expected to be competent and live lives that do not undermine their work and professional abilities in any way. They are expected to make their decisions on morally justifiable grounds, to protect the interests of the relevant shareholders, and to be aware of the interests of different stakeholders. Last but not least, a professional is expected to provide high level service to society.

Based on these different inputs, we can present a summarized view of the building blocks of a profession. This gives an overview of the common characteristics of a profession, and defines the path towards professionalism, where the profession grows and matures through the addition of new building blocks, and gains political, social and legal recognition in the process.

Figure 2. The building blocks of a profession.

The traditional view of what constitutes a profession has somewhat been modified in recent years. Muzio et al (2011) pointed out that there are new patterns of professionalization in project management and related occupations. Such “corporate" professionalization departs in many ways from the traditional paths. Examples of new features of this corporate professionalization are organizational membership, client engagement, competence-based closure and internationalization. Konstantinou (2015) discusses the redefined role of the project practitioner and concludes that due to the situated nature of project knowledge, the project practitioner can have an important role in defining and legalizing the knowledge that is important both for the practice and the profession. He points out that newer professions often operate within large organizations, where work does not strictly involve the application of predetermined bodies of knowledge, but is rather based on human interaction.

But is project management a profession? Peter Morris and his colleagues discussed what distinguishes professions from non-professions (Morris, 2006). Based on the assumption that an occupation has particular ‘traits’ that distinguish it from other occupations, they identified the fundamental characteristics of professions as having to meet formal educational and entry requirements, as having autonomy over the terms and conditions of practice, as having a code of ethics, and as having a commitment to service ideals and a monopoly over a discrete body of knowledge and related skills. It is their conclusion that project management is a ‘semi-profession’ or ‘emerging profession’ at the moment, as it draws very little of its legitimacy by reference to/by virtue of its contribution to the public good, or by adherence to an overarching ethical code (Morris et al, 2006). Although there is a strong sense of aspiration amongst project management practitioners and their representative associations towards professional status, this remains a matter of debate, and has been questioned by Zwerman and Thomas (2001). They maintain that although project management has been moving towards satisfying various criteria indicative of professional status, it is still some distance away, and achievement will require significant effort on the part of the professional associations and members. Two key organizations have attempted to achieve a more unified and global approach—the International Project Management Association (IPMA) and the Project Management Institute (PMI). A common dilemma for the project management associations is the fact that recognition of project management as an 63

occupation is problematic, as it is seen by many as an aspect of general management. Zwerman & Thomas (2001) concluded that for project management to become a â&#x20AC;&#x153;professionâ&#x20AC;?, it requires a concerted effort by its practitioners and professional associations in pursuing this objective. An action list is given in order to reach this status, e.g. to elaborate significant, independent, academic educational programs with an associated set of research programs, and to create and enforce a code of ethics for all practitioners using the title Project Manager, and last but not least, to win political, social, and legal recognition of the value of regulating project management for the good of society.

The development of public governance in the context of projects is important. A political and economic dogma called New Public Management (NPM) surfaced in the late eighties which assumed that politicians are inherently venal and likely to abuse their authority to enrich themselves and their friends, leading to high-cost, low-quality products (Hood, 1995).

One of the doctrines for ensuring public interest via NPM is the use of an elaborate structure of procedural rules designed to guarantee integrity, transparency and professional service to the public. This makes sense, as it is impossible to manage without reference to a conceptual set of rules for forming a governance framework. Only what we know can be managed and controlled. Over the last two decades, a change can be seen in the received principles of public accountability and administration (Winch, 2010). The rise of governance and NPM has also influenced project management as a discipline. Some notable signs of this advancement are the dramatic, manifold increase in the number of accredited project managers, the establishment of international institutions serving project management, and the creation of bodies of knowledge describing in detail the project management theoretical framework (Hodgson and Muzion, 2012:113).

A different and somewhat provocative perspective regarding the professional associations and their bodies of knowledge is put forward by Whitty and Schulz (2007), who wrote about the impact of puritan ideology on aspects of project management. They argue that project management behaviors are driven by significant memes that originate from various project management bodies of knowledge, especially the PMBok by PMI. They conclude by stating that scholars and practitioners should break free from the tyranny of these puritan memes that hinder them from evolving in the discipline in a free and unconstrained manner. A similar warning was in fact offered by Morris et al (2006), who concluded that there may be a danger of getting into self-fulfilling prophecies if the field relies on the project management associations to tell the academics what to think and teach.

Gaining recognition and acceptance of the changes required of both professional associations and practitioners seems to be a crucial challenge facing the professionalization effort for project management. Research has a significant role in this context, and the general perception is that there is a considerable gap between theory and practice in project management. Peter Morris (2014) wrote about project management as "a profession with a hole in its head." According to him, as project management is practice-oriented discipline, academics do have difficulties in presenting it as a whole, and therefore he proposes that the academics become more involved in the actual practice. The International Project Management Association IPMA has shown initiative here with its annual research conferences, where the objective from the beginning has been to encourage a discussion between practitioners and 64

academics. This already started with the first IPMA research conference in Berlin in 2013 on "Project management, theory meets practice." The aspirations of the project management community to progress further on the path towards being a fully accepted profession are best seen in the UK, where the Association for Project Management, the largest national member association of IPMA, has since 2007 aimed at achieving a chartered status for the project management profession and reached an important milestone in that quest in April 2017, when it became the chartered body for the project profession ("Royal Charter | APM", 2017). APM claims that all stakeholders will benefit from this. A chartered status is an internationally recognized mark of quality and provides the profession with a platform to raise awareness of project management skills, improve standards and develop practice. It offers assurance to users of project management services, provides a framework for improved performance in projects, and raises the profile and value of project management.

Evolution of project management in Iceland The history of projects in Iceland is, of course, much longer/older than the history of project management as a dicipline. We will divide our review of the evolution of project management in Iceland into three categories: Practical application, Educational progress, and Organizational support.

The Development of Practical Application of Project Management in Iceland To give a some further examples of important projects in Iceland in the 20th century, we will build on an assessment by a the Association of Chartered Engineers in Iceland (ACEA) in 2002 of the three greatest engineering achievements in each decade in Iceland in the 20th century (Mbl, 2002). We have also added some more recent projects, based on the same criteria, based on suggestions from an group of engineers who have served in leadership roles within the ACEA). It was tempting to add more projects that we ourselves deemed as important in the context of the development of project management in Iceland. This temptation was, however, resisted for the sake of a methodalogical clarity. Table 1 shows examples of important projects in Iceland during the first half of the 20th century.

Table 1. Examples of important projects in Iceland in the period 1900-1960. Project /Programme Telephone line Reykjavik Seyðisfjordur

Year of delivery 1906

Vifilstadahospital

1910

Cold water distribution system in Reykjavik

1909

Brief description A telephone line between Reykjavik (the capital) and Seydisfjordur on the east coast (Fréttablaðið, 2006). 14.000 telephone masts were installed with a total distance end to end of 614 km and the project was concluded in only 4 months in the summer of 1906. This was a large project in a society that was rather underdeveloped in comparison with its neighboring countries at that time. A hospital for tuberculosis patients that was buikd in Vífilsstadir. It was designed by by Rögnvaldur Ólafsson. After the decline in tuberculosis patients in 1973, all respiratory patients began to receive treatment at the hospital. The cold water distribution system in Reykjavik started operation in 1909. ("Vatnsveitan 100 ára", 2009). Providing water to the city from Gvendarbrunnur water reserves. The design and planning took two years and the construction took place from the beginning of summer 1908 until October 1909. This was the largest construction project in Iceland at that time.

Reykjavik harbour project

1917

Reykjavik Sewage System Loftskeytastöðin / The Reykjavik Radio Transmisson Station

Between 1911-20

Síldarverksmiðja ríkisins in Siglufjörd

19301945

The National Radio (RÚV)

1930

Telephone line connection to Europe

19061935

Swimming Palace (Sundhöllin) in Reykjavik Ljosafoss Power Plant

1937

Sundhöllin on Baronsstigur, Reykjavik was the largest indoor public bath in Iceland. Designed by architect Guðjón Samúelsson and opened in 1937.

1937

District heating in Reykjavik

1943

Installation of a electrical distribution

19401949

Operation of the Ljósafoss station began in 1937. Two turbine units were installed with a combined capacity of 8.8 MW. The third turbine was installed in 1944 with 6.5 MW capacity. In 1939-1943, most of the houses in Reykjavik were connected to a district heating system, and serviced by geothermal water from a borehole in Reykir in Mosfellssveit, some 12 km from the city center (Mbl, 2002). This project lead to enormous financial savings and positive invironmental impact when oil and coal were replaced by geothermal water for district heating. The project aimed at providing the whole population of Iceland with electricity.

19161918

The project to build a new harbour in Reykjavik was put out to tender in 1912 and a major milestone was reached in 1917. ("Saga Reykjavíkurhafnar - Faxaflóahafnir", 2013) This was a large project, a technical challenge and crucial in the development of Reykjavik as a capital. The building of a Sewage system for Reykjavik City.

The construction of an Reykjavík Radio Transmission Station began in 1916 with the support of the Marconi Society in London. Land was obtained from the town of Reykjavik at Melar, which was then considerably outside the town. In the spring of 1918 construction and finishing of the equipment was completed and on May 8 they took over the station on behalf of the government. It was then opened for public use on June 17. The station was equipped with the best equipment available, a 5 kw spark transmitter that received power from the oil engine and a spare transmitter that went for batteries. Receivers were two, crystal receivers, one with a lamp amplifier. Antenna masts were two, 77 meters high and with the capacity to transmit 750 km during the day and up to twice that during night. The station took care of all communications with ships the external world when telephone lines were not working. All service took place on morse. The Icelandic Govenment builds three Herring Smelters in the town of Silgufjörd SR30, SRN and SR46 which was by far the biggest one. However, during the period of 1911-1926 there had been seven privately build herring smetlers in the village. RÚV began radio broadcasting in 1930 and its first television transmissions were made in 1966. Coverage reached almost nearly every household in Iceland. RÚV has been a member of the European Broadcasting Union since 1956. One short wave submarine channel connection from Scotland via Faeroy islands (opened in 1961). In 1935 the connectetion opened to London and Copenhagen. This involved building two telephone centers, a receiving station and a transmitting station (Morgunblaðið, 1935). Crucial project for connecting Icelandic society with the external world.

system in rural areas The Miklabraut â&#x20AC;&#x17E;avenueâ&#x20AC;&#x153; in Reykjavik Fertilizer plant in Gufunes

Miklabraut is still one of the main transportation routes within Reykjavik city. It links the East part of the city with the West part. 1954

A law on the fertilizer plant was ratified in the parliament in 1949 and the US funded post WW2 Marshall Plan provided the necessary economical means to finance the construction. The plant equipment and layout was designed by US engineers, but all civil work and engineering was designed and constructed by Icelandic engineers and contractors (Mbl, 2002). The electrical power was producedby the Irafoss power station, specifically built for this purpose. This can be seen as the first example of power intensive industry in Iceland.

In the first decades of 20th century Icelandic society underwent fast development, and was transformed from a being an undeveloped agriculture and fishing community - and one of the poorest country in Europe - to a developed society. Industrialisation of the fisheries and the Marshall Plan aid following World War II brought about great changes for Iceland and the Icelanders has now became one of the richest nations in the world. The examples of project and programmes above shows some of the milestones on this path and give an idea of the development in Iceland in the first half of the 20th century.

In the period of 1961-2000 some large steps were taken in the harnessing of hydro and geothermal power, mainly in order to provide power from local resources to the public and to facilitate the build-up of power intensive industry in Iceland. The National Power Company was founded in 1965, and from the beginning, the company has played a crucial role in the development of project management in Iceland. A contract was made with Alusuisse in 1966 for power from the Burfell power station. Burfell hydro power station was a project of a magnitude previously unknown in Iceland. It was the first time a power station had been built in a glacier river, and this was a major step in the harnessing of hydro power in Iceland. Previous power plants had been smaller, and they had been financed with ownersÂ´ capital, or by borrowing from local banks. Burfell hydro plant was financed through a loan from the World Bank. The World Bank had strict conditions regarding consultants and contractors. To begin with, Icelandic consultants and contractors were too small and inadequate to fulfill these conditions, but the demands by the World Bank put pressure on the Icelandic organisations to make necessary improvements in order to fulfill these demands. As a consequence, Icelandic contractors and consultants who wanted to be eligible to participate in these projects made some major improvements regarding their technical and project management ability, and they were direct participants in later hydro power projects, such as Hrauneyjafoss and Sigalda. Burfell power station was, for example, the first project where project planning software was applied in Iceland, and the application of CPM was a key to delivering the first phase - installing the first turbine - on time and on budget (E.S. Ingibergsson, personal communication, February 3, 2017).

Table 2. Examples of important projects in Iceland in the period 1961-2000. Project / Programme Burfell power station

Year of delivery 1969

Reykjanesbraut „highway“ (Route 41) to Keflavik International Airport Laugardalshöll sports hall.

1965

Sundahofn Harbor Reykjavik Bridges on the Skeiðarár-sand

1968

Svartsengi geothermal power station

1976

Krafla geothermal power station

1978

Skyggnir Earth Station

1980

New terminal at Keflavik International Airport

1987

Nesjavellir geothermal power station

1990

1965

1974

Brief description In 1969 the hydro power plant in Burfell was commissioned. This was the first time a glacier river was harnessed in Iceland and innovation and development was needed to solve some important technical challenges, e.g. to protect the power station from ice in the river. The demands by the World Bank led to increased focus on professioal project management (E.S. Ingibergsson, personal communication, February 3, 2017). The road was orginally build in 1912 but was finally paved in 1965, becoming the first paved raod in Iceland. The road was a two lane single carriageway with a concrete (not-asfalt) surface. The road links Reykjavik capital with the KEF international airport.

Laugardalshöll is an indoor sporting arena located in Reykjavík, Iceland. The capacity of the arena is 5,500 people. Hosted for instance the 1995 World Men's Handball Championship Since 1968 this has been the most important import-export facilities in Iceland. The port handles some 230,000 TEU. The Skeiðará river was the toughest obstacle in the construction of Iceland's Circle Route #1. The circle was closed in 1974 by a 904 m long bridge which is still he longest bridge in Iceland. In the first phase of the Svartsengi geothermal power station, superheated geotremal steam was used to heat fresh water, which was pumped to the villages of Grindavik and Njardvik for district heating. This was the first geothermal power station of its type in Iceland. The world famous "Blue Lagoon" was created as a by-product of this power station. In 1978, the first large scale geothermal power plant (60 MW) in Iceland was commissoned in north-east Iceland. This was Krafla power station. It was built on top of an active volcano which did in fact erupt a number of times during construction and the first years of operation. (A decade eariler a small power plant of 3 MW had been build in the Bjarnarflag area). The first time in Iceland that electricity was produced (large scale) from geotheral power, a milestone in the harnessing of geothermal energy in Iceland. The Skyggnir Earth Station came online which enabled telephone calls to other countries via satellite. Direct dialling to other countries became possible for the first time. In 1987, a new terminal at Keflavik International Airport (Leif Eiriksson Terminal) was commissioned, the. It was the largest construction project in Iceland at that time and was criticized because of extensive cost overruns in its final stages. (Gestsson, 2014). The terminal has been under construction and development ever since. In 1990, the Nesjavellir geothermal power station was commissioned (Morgunblaðið, 1990). It was a project that had been in the research and planning phase for a very long time. It was considered very successful and for the most part delivered on time and on schedule. Nesjavellir power station is an efficient combined cycle power station.

Hvalfjordur sub-sea tunnel

1998

Perlan (the Pearl)

1991

Installation of a digital cellular telecommunica tion systems

19942000

In 1998, a tunnel under Hvalfjord was commissioned. This was the first and only sub marine tunnel in Iceland. The project that was privately financed was considered to be a great success, having been delivered on budget and well ahead of schedule. Perlan is a prominent landmark in Reykjavík and situated on the top of Öskjuhlíð hill. What was originally a cluster of six hot water tanks was in 1991 converted to a public venue and a restaurant. The system enables the use if GSM applications.

The years 2001-2017 have been characterized by great fluctuations in the Icelandic economy and a major financial collapse in 2008, followed by steady growth, with tremendous expansion of the tourist industry.

Table 3. Examples of important projects in Iceland in the period 2001-2019 Project / Programme Karahnjukar Hydro Power Plant

Year of delivery 20072009

The Kárahnjúkar Dam

Alcan Aluminium Smelter in Reydarfjordur

2007

Harpa music and conference center

2009

CarbFix

2007

Brief description Kárahnjúkavirkjun, officially called Fljótsdalur Power Station, is designed to produce 4,600 gigawatt-hours (17,000 TJ) annually for Alcoa's Fjarðaál aluminum smelter located 75 km away to the east in Reyðarfjörður. With the installed capacity of 690 megawatts (930,000 hp), the plant is the largest power plant in Iceland. The project involved damming the rivers Jökulsá á Dal and Jökulsá í Fljótsdal with five dams, creating three reservoirs. Water from the reservoirs is diverted through 73 km (45 mi) of underground water tunnels and down a 420-metre (1,380 ft) vertical penstock towards a single underground power station. The smelter became fully operational in 2008 and the hydropower project was completed in 2009. Kárahnjúkastífla enables five dams and is the largest of its type in Europe, standing 193 metres (633 ft) tall with a length of 730 metres (2,400 ft) and comprising 8.5 million cubic metres (300×106 cu ft) of material. The project was been heavily criticised for its environmental impact and its use of foreign workers. The Alcan aluminium smelter in Reyðarfjordur is the largest of three aluminium smelters in Iceland. Following an international tender process the Bechtel Corporation and Mannvit’s subsidiary HRV Engineering as Bechtel‐HRV were chosen to design and build a 346,000 tpy aluminium smelter in Reydarfjordur, Iceland on an EPC basis. In 2009, the Harpa music and conference center in the center of Reykjavik was commissioned. It was planned and designed before the financial collapse of 2008. After the collapse it was decided not to stop but to finish the house. Harpa won the Mies van der Rohe Award for Best Arcitecture in 2013. CarbFix is a research project led by Reykjavik Energy, that aims at developing methods and technology for permanent CO2 mineral storage in basalts. It was founded in 2007 by Reykjavík

Hellisheidi Power Plant

2009

Vadlaheidatunnel

2018

Energy, CNRS, the University of Iceland, and Columbia University. The Hellisheidi Power Station is the largest geothermal powerstation in Iceland and the second largest in the world. It is located in the Mt. Hengill area n Southwest Iceland. It gets its energy from 30 drill holes each approx. 2000 m deep. It has now a capacity of 303 MW of electricity and 133 MW of hot water, aiming at 400 MW which would make it the most powerful power station of its kind in the world. Vadlaheidargong is a toll tunnel in the north of Iceland along Route 1, just east of Akureyri. It passes between Eyjafjordur and Fnjoskadalur. It is 7.4 km (4.6 mi) long. The tunnel was planned to open at the end of 2016 but due to massive leaks of both hot and cold waters it had to be postponed.

The Development of Project Management Educational in Iceland The first documented indication in Iceland of the evolution of project management as a formal professional discipline can be traced back to 1967, when Egill Skuli Ingibergsson, an electrical engineer and later the Mayor of Reykjavik City, participated in the first International European Internet Congress in Vienna (E.S. Ingibergsson, personal communication, February 3, 2017). The topic of the conference was the CPM method, and Mr Ingibergsson returned back to Iceland with the new ideas and started to offer courses in CPM planning. In 1974, Petur K. Maack returned from Denmark with a PhD degree in operational engineering. He became a faculty member at the newly founded faculty of engineering in the University of Iceland where he designed a course on operational management, and where project management was briefly addressed. In 1975, an official course on project management was hosted by Stjornunarfelagid (“The Management Society” Alþýðublaðið, 1975). This is the first documented course on formal project management offered in Iceland.

In 1981, Daniel Gestsson went to Pittsburg, USA to study public administration and project management at a university level. At that time the situation in Iceland was, according to Mr Gestsson, such that the politicians “had all the power“ and they were “not too keen on giving too much power to professionals“ ("Viðtal við Daníel Gestsson", 2014). In 1982, Mr Gestsson participated in a project management conference in Stockholm, organised by the Nordic project management associations ("Nordnet“). There he met Dr Morten Fangel, who agreed to come to Iceland and give courses on project management ("Viðtal við Daníel Gestsson", 2014). In 1984, Dr Fangel gave his first course on project management in collaboration with the Center for Continuing Education at the University of Iceland, and after that he has offered project management training in Iceland on a regular basis.

In 1998, the first university course in Iceland specifically focusing on project management was offered at undergraduate level by Tryggvi Sigurbjarnarson, a faculty member of Industrial and Mechanical Engineering at the University of Iceland. In the year 2000, a full academic position in project management was created at the University and Dr. Helgi Thor Ingason took on the position. In the same year, project management was taught for the first time as a special course at Reykjavik University by Thordur Vikingur. In 2003, a 24 ECTS diploma course on project management called “Project 70

Management and Leadership” was offered for the first time in Iceland ("Saga námsins | Verkefnastjórnun og Leiðtogafærni", 2016). This program focused equally on the intra- and interpersonal aspects of project leadership and on the more technical aspects of project management. The program has been one of the most popular continuing education programs in Iceland ever since.

In 2005, a Master of Project Management (MPM) program was offered for the first time in Iceland as a graduate level executive management program. The courses focusing on the management of projects with a very strong focus on the psychological aspects of project leadership. The MPM program has been offered ever since and is now hosted at Reykjavik University. The establishing of the MPM program was arguably an important milestone in the development of project management as an academic field in Iceland. It has always focused on up-to-date aspects of PPP (project, program and portfolio) management and put heavy emphasis on behavioral, organizational, and cultural aspects of responsible management. MPM graduates are more than 300, and many of these have leading roles in organizations in various business sectors in Iceland. In 2007, the MPM program organized its first annual graduation conference, where 30 students presented their final theses on project management and related fields. The MPM program has also had a strong focus on research and graduates are write a thesis in the fourth and final semester and present their work at the annual conference on what is now called “The Project Management Day” held in cooperation with the VSF. In 2008, the first international publication by an MPM graduate was published when Hildur Helgadottir, published her MPM thesis in the International Journal of Project Management (Helgadottir, 2008) on the ethical dimension of project management. Since then many other MPM graduated have been published either in the proceedings in project management conferences or in international peer-review journals. Project management programs on graduate level are now offered in three Universities in Iceland.

In 2003 Thordur Vikingur Fridgeirsson published his first textbook on project management titled Verkefnastjórnun á tímum breytinga ("Management in Times of Changes and Agility" (Fridgeirsson, 2003). This was the first book on project management published in Icelandic and in 2008, the same author published his second book on project management Áhætta, ákvarðanir og Óvissa ("Risk, Decisions and Uncertainty" (Fridgeirsson, 2008). In 2011 and 2012, a new series of project management textbooks in Icelandic was published. The four books were titled Stefnumótunarfærni (Strategic Competences) (Ingason H. & Jonasson H., 2011), Leiðtogafærni (Leadership Competences) (Jonasson H. & Ingason H., 2012), Skipulagsfærni (Project Management Competences) (Ingason H. & Jonasson H., 2011) and Samskiptafærni (Communication Skills) (Jonasson H. & Ingason H., 2012). These books were later translated and rewritten in English and in 2019 the international publisher Rutledge/Taylor and Francis the series for the global market. The books are Project: Leadership (Ingason & Jonasson, 2019), Project: Communication (Ingason & Jonasson, 2019), Project: Strategy (Ingason & Jonasson, 2019), and Project: Execution (Ingason & Jonasson, 2019). In 2011, the diploma program “Transparent leadership and sustainable project management” was registered by the Danish project management association on behalf of IPMA. The registration, that is only granted after a thorough scrutiny of the program, further strengthened project management education in Iceland.

In 2015, the MPM program was accredited by APM, the British project management association, and in the same year the first PhD thesis on project management was defended at an Icelandic university (Fridgeirsson, 2015). This research project revealed that cost overruns are the rule rather than the 71

exception in publicly funded construction projects and that there is room for extensive improvement in terms of project selection and planning. In 2016, the macro-economical value of project management in Iceland was assessed, based on a method that had been applied in Germany one year earlier.

The Development of Project Management Organisational Support in Iceland The Icelandic Project Management Association (VSF) was founded in 1984 and Daniel Gestsson became the first chairman (Gestsson, 2014). One of the first assignments of this new association was to participate in a Nordic project by Nordnet, to develop a list of project management concepts in the Nordic languages. In 1987, a Nordnet conference was held in Reykjavik on "The spectrum of project management." It was an interesting event, because it was held as a collaboration between IPMA and PMI, the Project Management Institute of the USA (Gestsson, 2014). In 1991, a handbook on publicly funded construction projects was issued by the Ministry of Finance. It was written as guidelines for all the ministries to follow in all construction projects undertaken under their providence. Later, regulations on official construction projects were written and formally approved by the parliament. In 1997, the first IPMA certification took place in Iceland, with help from the German project management association (Gestsson, 2014), and in 1997, the first project management office was established in an Icelandic organization, in this case one of the three largest banks in Iceland, Islandsbanki (Bjornsdottir, 2007).

In 1994, the IPMA launched an effort to coordinate the education of project managers and introduced its willingness to develop a certification program for professional project managers. The Icelandic Project Management Association (VSF) participated actively in this effort and Iceland became one of the pioneer countries (Gestsson, 2014). In Iceland, currently, only one person, Sigurdur Ragnarsson for Harpa Music and Conference Hall, holds a IPMA-A certification, 82 people hold IPMA-B certification, 184 people hold a IPMA-C certification and 1755 hold a IPMA-D certification (VSF, 2019).

In 2001, the first publication of an Icelandic Body of Knowledge on project management was written and published with support from the Icelandic state, on the condition that it would be accessible to the public (Gestsson, 2014). In 2002 the first woman was elected as chairman of VSF (Gestsson, 2014). A research project in 2003 revealed that project managers in Iceland had quite diverse backgrounds (Einarsdottir, 2003). A survey was done amongst members in VSF, and 52% of the respondents were engineers, a lower ratio than was anticipated. In 2010, MPM students did an assessment of the project management maturity in the Icelandic ministries. The conclusion was that there the project maturity was very low â&#x20AC;&#x201D; most scored 1 out of 5 with regards to most evaluation criteria â&#x20AC;&#x201D; in all of the ministries and much room for improvement (Ingason, 2010).

In 2012, VSF had the IPMA competence baseline ICB3 translated into Icelandic and used as both as the Icelandic competence baseline in project management and as a foundation for the project management certification system. Another milestone for VSF was in 2012, when the association hired its first employee. This was a response to demands for increased professionalism in the operations of the association, which has from the beginning been run mostly on a voluntary basis. In 2013, a handbook on project management was issued by the Icelandic Prime Ministry, intended for use in all ministries when 72

they are planning and executing projects (Stjórnarráð Íslands, 2013). In 2014, a research conducted by MPM students at Reykjavik University demonstrated that the job title "project manager" in Iceland is frequently used for jobs that have little or nothing to do with professional project management (Guðmundsdóttir & Jónsdóttir, 2014). In 2016, IPMA held its 4th research conference in Reykjavik, with the theme "Project management and sustainability." In 2018 the IPMA ICB4 was published in Iceland by VSF.

Since 2000-2006 interest in Agile project management, and Scrum methods in particular, became noticeable within Icelandic companies, especially among IT professional and software developer. Since then Agile and Scrum has become an integrated part of the project management toolbox of many project management professionals in Iceland.

Discussion The figure below shows some critical milestones in the development of project management as a formal professional discipline in Iceland. It is based to the overview given the previous chapter of this paper and put in context with the timeline that was laid out in the introduction section.

Figure 3. The timeline of Project Management in Iceland.

The idea is to represent the extent to which project management has developed in the direction of a profession based on the norms defined in the theoretical section. It is quite clear that some of the 73

building blocks of a project management profession have been laid in Iceland. Research in project management was formalized in 2000, when an academic position in project management was created at the University of Iceland. A body of knowledge in the Icelandic language on project management was published for the first time in 2001, however, as early as 1997 there were project managers who had sought a certification in project management in collaboration with IPMA. The year 2005 was a critical milestone in this development, when a graduate level program – the Master of Project Management (MPM) - was offered for the first time. The program was well received, and more than 350 people have graduated and have brought, and will continue to bring, their knowledge to work within the Icelandic society.

As of today, the application of project management has become widespread in all sectors of the Icelandic society. Today there is a wider choice of educational programs, there is a sound body of knowledge on project management, the qualifications of project managers have been defined, and a certification system is run under the umbrella of IPMA. As a matter of fact, Iceland has the highest number of certifications per capita in all of the IPMA member associations. This indicates a clear trend, and that organizations in Iceland really value the international confirmation of knowledge of project management concepts - represented by the lower level certification - and of real project management experience - represented by the higher-level certifications.

There are, however, some crucial elements missing. Firstly, we can state that project management has gained some political and social recognition in Icelandic society through the years. But in many countries, the project governance frameworks have been catalytic in moving the project management forward as a professional discipline (Samset, et al., 2016). This has not happened in Iceland, as references to project management best practices are less evident in the Icelandic governance legislation than in many other developed countries (Fridgeirsson, 2015).

VSF publishes their Code of Ethics - a code of professional conduct for certified individuals ("Siðareglur | Verkefnastjórnunarfélag Íslands", 2017) on its web page. The application form for certification includes a checkbox where applicants are asked to confirm that they have read the Code. The way this document was developed is not explained. Personal communication with present and past leaders of the association, however, reveals that it is a translation of ethical guidelines from the UK and Scandinavia, which was published on the web page before 2006 and has remained unchanged ever since (Ottosson T, personal communication, March 16, 2017), (Albertsson O., personal communication, March 16, 2017), (Imsland O., personal communication, March 16, 2017). The relevance of the Code of Ethics is thus very limited, and by reference to Morris et al (2006) it can be said that project management in Iceland draws little of its legitimacy by reference by virtue of its contribution to the public good or by adherence to an overarching ethical code.

In order to quantify the status of project management in Iceland, on its path to a profession, we offer a simple benchmark. We use the different attributes for a profession, as defined in the theoretical section, and grade each of them on a scale 1 to 4. The exercise was performed in December 2017 by the authors of this paper, and a group of 35 master students in project management (MPM) at Reykjavik University,

as a part of a sum-up work session in conclusion of their 3rd of four semesters in the program. The results are shown in Table 4 which also explains the simple grading system.

Table 4. Status of project management in Iceland.

For reference, we have assessed the status of project management in UK according to our simple grading system. Our assessment is based on the fact that the Association for Project Management in UK has become the Chartered body for the project profession in UK ("Royal Charter | APM", 2017). The last column of the table shows our assessment of the status of project management in Iceland.

We argue that project management has not yet evolved to become a fully developed profession in Iceland. â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Scope creepsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; in projects are common and research has shown that cost overruns are the rule rather than the exception in public construction projects. There seems to be a lack of standardization, and even though project management has gained weight in society, there is a huge improvement potential in all sectors, not least in the public sector, where project management maturity has been measured and found to be very low, and where the government has not played any role in pushing for the implementation of project management governance, even though this has happened in neighboring countries.

From the beginning, the main drivers advocating professionalism in project management in Iceland were motivated individuals who then gradually formed a community of practice that later became the VSF. VSF has continued this development by offering the ICB3/ICB4 IPMA competence baselines in Icelandic and a certification system based on it. The initiative to move the profession still further has perhaps been transferred to the universities that now offer both diploma programs (VOGL, APME) and graduate programs (MPM, MPM/MSc and MSc) in project management. Further, Icelandic businesses and organizations that operate in an international environment, and have to comply to international standards, such as the National Power Company, have had to meet variety loan conditions defined by the World Bank. In recent years, we have seen an expansion of these drivers, with international businesses that operate in the dynamic competitive world market and have had to apply modern project 75

management to compete and respond quickly to changes in their environment. In a way, this is in line with the "corporate" professionalism defined by Muzio et al (2011). These organizations represent "pools of excellence" within a business environment where there is great room for improvement. Municipalities and governmental initiatives will by means of a more general projectification hopefully lead to better governance that will bring positive results for society in general.

The Icelandic Project Management Association could play a still larger role in pushing the project management profession forward, for instance, by facilitating an open discussion about the profession as such, professionalism, and on the ethical and professional responsibility of holders of IPMA certificates and IPMA members. Such an open forum for discussion about project management can be backed up with efforts to win political, social, and legal recognition of the value of regulating project management for better project management and the common good.

Conclusion In this paper we have looked some historical milestones in the development of the project management profession within the Icelandic society. We have seen how the profession grew through the practical application of project management methodology, project management education, and organizational support in the for of consultancy and trainings.

The Icelandic example of how the project management profession gets born and how it matures within a society is an interesting example for variety of reasons. Starting off as a rather vague idea on how to use some basic concepts from operation management to manage schedules, developed over a few decades and has now become a sought-after professional discipline with educational frameworks and organizations with professional interests. The application of project management was initially sporadic and led by motivated individuals. Today the scene is different, with project management as one of the key drivers of the Icelandic economy. In the paper â&#x20AC;&#x153;Projectification in Iceland measured, comparsion of two methodsâ&#x20AC;? (Fridgeirsson, Ingason & Jonasson, 2019) indicates that monetary value added via projects is little less than one third of the actual economy (Gross Value Added), and that stakeholders from industry and the public domain agree that this evolution will escalate in the near future. All the main universities in Iceland teach project management as an integrated part of engineering and business curriculum, and a thriving post graduate scene exists, with the MPM program at Reykjavik University arguably at its spearhead.

The Icelandic scenario with regards to the development of the project management profession is comparable to that of nations with similar frameworks with regards to what should constitute professionalism. It had been lagging behind by a few years, but in recent years higher project management maturity has been achieved, with the reservation that the public governance framework in Iceland does still not comply with similar charters in Europe (InnanrikisraĂ°uneyti, 2016). However, despite some imperfections, there is clear evidence of the growing significance, importance and impact of project management within the Icelandic society.

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Project Management in Iceland: Current and Future Importance of Project Management within the Icelandic Economy - Paper 2 of 3 in a series on the history, status and future of project management in Iceland. Þórður Víkingur Friðgeirssona, Helgi Þór Ingasona, Haukur Ingi Jónassona a School of Technology, Reykjavik University, Menntavegi 1, 101 Reykjavík Fyrirspurnir: Þórður Víkingur Friðgeirsson thordurv@ru.is Greinin barst 23. janúar 2019 Samþykkt til birtingar 16. desember 2019

Ágrip Verkefni og stjórnun þeirra hefur þróast frá því að vera aðferðafræði við áætlunargerð til viðurkenndrar atvinnugreinar sem skiptir sköpum í samfélagi okkar daga. Þessi grein er önnur í röð þriggja undir heitinni Verkefnastjórnun á Íslandi og fjallar um mikilvægi verkefnastjórnunar innan íslenskra fyrirtækja og hlut verkefna í íslenska hagkerfinu. Þá eru birtar tvær íslenskar atvinnulífskannanir sem styðja við greiningu á hvað ætla má að muni gerast með fagsviðið verkefnastjórnun í næstu framtíð. Greinin sýnir fram á mikilvægi verkefnastjórnunar á Íslandi sem hlutfall af vinnsluvirði atvinnuvega hagkerfisins, þ.e. tekjum að frádregnum aðfangakostnaði. Niðurstöður rannsóknanna gefa til kynna að nálægt þriðjungur af vinnsluvirðinu megi rekja til verkefna. Ennfremur kemur fram að hlutur verkefna mun aukast í næstu framtíð. Niðurstöðurnar eru skilaboð til atvinnulífsins og yfirvalda um þá stefnumótun sem þarf að vinna og útfæra t.d. hvað varðar nauðsynlega fagþekkingu fyrir þarfir samfélagsins á næstu árum. Loks greinir rannsóknin frá tveimur mismunandi aðferðum til að mæla mikilvægi, áhrif og aðra þróun hins “verkefnavædda” samfélags á hverjum tíma. Lykilorð: Fagsvið, vinnsluvirði atvinnuvega, áhrif, hagnýting, framtíðarleitni.

Abstract The project management profession has evolved from being a simple technical approach to planning to becoming a full-fledged profession that plays an essential role within the global economy. This paper, which is the second of three under the general heading Project management in Iceland, looks at the importance of project management within Icelandic organizations and the Icelandic economy. The paper explores the developmental path of the project management profession, looks at the current state of affairs, and identifies possible future trends though two surveys conducted Iceland. This study reveals the importance of project management in Iceland, a developed Nordic country, as a proportion of its economy. The study indicates that close to one third of the Gross Value Added (GVA) in the Icelandic economy is based on project-related work. The study, furthermore, indicates that the 81

importance and application of project management will increase in the near future. This sends a clear message to both industry and the public sector on what kind of strategic and tactical alignments and what kind of professional competences are needed for future economy and society. Furthermore, the study describes - and deploys - two methods that can be used to measure the importance and trends within the project management profession and as indicators of what has been named “projectification” of society. Keywords: Profession, GVA, impact, application, future trends.

Introduction Observing the development of the project management profession from starting off as a rather narrowly defined technical undertaking, to becoming a world-wide profession has been fascinating. The birth of the project management as a formal discipline is traditionally seen as a product of the Cold War (Kerzner, 2009) when the so-called superpowers competed in an arms race to build weapons and other armaments. Large projects were planned and deployed both in the US and the USSR to design bombers, ballistic missiles, submarines and weapon systems. In the US, where the more scientific take on project management is was born, projects were often a complex interplay of a number of stakeholders: the military, government, public institutions, contractors and sub-contractors. The enhancement of the planning procedures led to techniques like the development of the Critical Path Method (CPM) and the Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) and other the recognizable early signifiers of project management. When executives in a search for managerial techniques that could be used to cope with the increasingly volatile business environment, discovered project management, interest in the discipline grew steadily. This interest, further, created the need for references and conceptual clarifications, a process that indicated increased “projectification”, a concept first used in 1995 by Cristophe Midler (Midler, 1995). Originally, the concept referred to a trend that Midler noticed in the Renault car factories and that manifested in the transition from the traditional functional organization in the 1960's to project orientation and coordination in the 1970's. It also referred to the deep impact these changes had on task definitions, hierarchical regulations, carrier management, functions and relationships with suppliers. Since then the term "projectification" has in an organizational context been used to describe the path towards the managerial adaptation, or transformation, of a conventional management to a project-oriented organization. It has also, still further, been used as to descript the growing trend within developed societies to build increasingly on projects and project management for further actualization. Morris (2012) described the evolution of project management as a move towards system engineering and interest in the “project manager” as an attempt to cope with the human and social challenges of the dynamic system that projects inevitably are. Arguably, the focus on the project as a vibrant organization, rather than as a set of methods, established a turning point in the evolving of the profession. Morris et al. (2012) also describes three major paradigms, or “waves”, in the development of project management as a discipline. The first wave was characterized by normative methods, tools and techniques; the second wave by projects as temporary organizations, with methods to work with risk and contingency, planning, and models that were used to rethink project management. The third wave has seven characteristics; (1) interest in the history and distinct theory of projects and project management; (2) increased awareness of the importance of context or how a project is a part of the social and sectoral enterprise; (3) interest in understanding how projects and organizations are linked; (4) interest in how strategy and projects are linked; (5) interest in how projects are used as 82

vehicles to innovate for the future; (6) interest in the role of leadership and the role of human behavior in shaping trust and creating a cooperative atmosphere; and (7) interest in seeing projects as complex, risky and across-the-firm relationships, in an attempt to adopt to uncertainty, manage novel ventures and deal with special challenges through learning and knowledge integration. Publications in the field of project management also indicates how the profession advanced over time. Three significant journals focusing on project management specifically are: (1) The International Journal of Project Management (IJPM published by Elsevier), (2) The Project Management Journal (PMJ published by Wiley) and (3) IEEE Transactions of Engineering Management (IEE-TEM published by The Institute of Electrical and Engineering Management Technology Council) (Turner et al., 2012). In 1987 there were 6 papers in IJPM, in 2007, the number had risen to 366. In 1987, there were 2 papers on project management in PMJ and in 2007, they were 67, and in IEE-TEM there were no publications in 1987 but 29 in 2007. The diversity of topics had also increased. In IJPM, 45 topics were addressed in 1987, but this number had escalated to 168 topics in 2007. A similar trend can be verified with other journals (Turner et al., 2012). In times when academics are constantly being pushed to publish, it can be assumed that this trend has continued. The International Project Management Association (IPMA) that was established in 1965 had, by the end of 2013, certified more than 194,000 individuals worldwide (IPMA, 2014). The Project Management Institute (PMI) was established in 1969 and the British Association for Project Management (APM) in 1972. Also, an essential part of the development of the project management profession, was the issuing of Book of Knowledge (BoK) protocols with guidance of how project portfolios and programs to link strategy and operations. In the UK, the Association for Project Management (APM) has issued the APM Body of Knowledge that is an up-to-date collection of topics that should be known to PPP practitioners, academics and experts. Detailed protocols in regard to projects and programs for coordinating strategy, tactics and operations via projects, programs and portfolios of projects can also be found in the standards issued by the Project Management Institute (PMI). In particular, the PMI has issued standards on project portfolios management (The Project Portfolio Standard®), which denotes that a portfolio is a component collection of programs and projects specifically managed as to achieve strategic objectives (PMI, 2012). PMI also issues standards on project programs (The Program Management Standard®), providing guidance to manage multiple projects where project feasibility is the key to answering and verifying the proposed direction (PMI, 2006:100). Furthermore, PMI issues standards on projects (Project Management Body of Knowledge - PMBOK®) (the latest version being PMI, 2017). Both APM and PMI have grown rapidly on all fronts. In 1992, the number of members of APM was 5,000; in 2010, that number had increased to 17,500. In 2009, the number of members of PMI had risen to more than 300,000 in two decades (Hodgson and Muzio, 2012). There is little doubt that the project management is an important profession that helps project owners and organizations of all kind to actualize themselves through successful projects. “Projectification” of society and the economy is a factuality even though the actual economic impact has hitherto not been overly well defined. In Iceland, a similar development with regard to professionalism in PPP management has been taking place it happened there few years later in time—and there are some interesting anomalies, as discussed by Ingason, Fridgeirsson & Jonasson (2019). The key promoter of the discipline of project management is the Project Management Association of Iceland (VSF). VSF was founded in 1984, with the mission to lead and enhance the development of 83

project management (VSF, 2017a). Arguably, the most notable activity of VSF is the function of certifying professional project managers in collaboration with the IPMA (International Project Management Association). This process has been taken place since 1997 and gone from strength to strength. Currently, 1566 project managers have received certification on all of the four different IPMA levels (A, B, C and D) (VSF, 2017b). The birth of project management as a profession in Iceland was also consolidated by a post graduate study line/ course, Master of Project Management (MPM), established in 2005. More than 300 project managers have graduated through the MPM programme (MPM, 2017). The project management profession has been gaining an international momentum and Iceland has followed along the same path. Ingason, Fridgeirsson & Jonasson (2019) conclude that project management is on the verge of becoming an established profession in Iceland; a profession with a solid theoretical knowledge base, best practice references, strong educational programs, academic research activities and occupational interest groups. However, in spite of this success and the projectification of the private and the public industries, the economic impact is more or less unknown. â&#x20AC;&#x153;Successâ&#x20AC;? is also a relative concept, as projects in Iceland, especially public projects, have frequently come under scathing criticism and are subject to controversy and debate. Fridgeirsson (2015) investigated public projects and project governance in Iceland and concluded that large projects have serious cost overrun problems (9 out of 10 projects had cost overruns). In the study by Fridgeirsson (2015), the Icelandic project governance framework is considered to be lacking behind when compared with in countries like Norway and the UK. It is, therefore, an imperative to document information on projects and their management (or lack thereof) not only in the light of their success, but also with regard to how they have failed to pave the way for improvement. Despite the small population (330.000 inhabitants), Iceland is a prosperous country with a GDP of 50,936 USD per capita in 2015, according to the UN, placing the country in 12th place in the world. In 2013, 78% of Iceland's export value and 59% of imports came from countries within the European Union (Hagstofan, 2016). Economic growth is relatively very strong (7,2% GNP in 2016) and IcelandÂ´s prospects are generally considered favorable (Hagstofan, 2017). As stated earlier, the economic impact of work done in projects is not fully clear. This is unfortunate, as the monetary worth of projects as a percentage of the larger economy is an important metric to the impact of project management for society. If the impact of projects on the economy is significant, it should be instrumental for government and business leaders to master the profession of project management and the importance of the project management profession should be reflected both in governmental and industrial strategies. The first serious attempt to outline the economic impact of projects was arguably carried out by Wald et al (2015) and applied first to the German economy. The initial study of Andreas Wald and colleagues provided a platform for studying the Icelandic projectification and the economic impact of projects. The present study is intended to pursue the following objectives: 1. 2. 3. 4.

Investigate the relevance of projects and project management for Icelandic industries. State the current economic impact of project related work. Project the trend of the profession in the near future. Describe an alternative method for projecting the trend in the future.

Methodology With the aim to investigate the proportion of the Icelandic economy that is project based the authors build partly on a method developed by Wald et al. (2015). In addition, a benchmark study among over 84

than 1300 managers was conducted to explore (1) the current application and impact of project management in Iceland, and (2) how the application and impact of project management is likely to evolve in the near future (next 12 months).

The GVA (Gross Value Added) by Projects in Icelandic organizations/sectors No direct financial figures are available on the economic impact of projects or the degree of projectification within Icelandic industries. Ideally, measuring the share of project work in the larger economy would build on established macroeconomic measures of added value, such as the gross domestic product (GDP), the gross national product (GNP), or the gross value-added (GVA). The GDP is the total monetary value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period and would be difficult to apply as a metric for projects. The same applies for the GNP, which indicates the value of all finished goods and services in a country in one year by its nationals. Both for the GDP and GNP it would be difficult to isolate projects from the interactive stream of transactions within the economy. However, the GVA is suitable for this study. The GVA represents the monetary value of the goods and services that have been produced, after the cost of the inputs (i.e. raw materials) that can be attributed to the production has been subtracted. The GVA is, in short, a productivity metric that measures the contribution of work to society (or the producer, section region, etc.). A measure of the output and the value-added of project work seems, therefore, to be the best approach for measuring the share of project work, as it could be directly compared to the total GVA. However, this approach also has its challenges, such as the variety of projects is inevitably reflected in the variety of project outcomes. For example, the output of a project that delivers a product or service with a dedicated market price has very different properties to that of a new product development project or an organizational change project. In theory, all projects should have a value, direct or indirect, for the organization. However, it might be difficult to define a specific (monetary) value to, for instance, an internal change project. This allocation problem mainly results from an unclear time horizon in which a change project delivers measurable monetary results, and from the questions, whether, to what extent and with what degree of quality the change was achieved. In addition, the revenues directly attributable to the projects must be recorded to obtain an output-oriented measure of project work. This data is only available for projects which lead directly to revenues. Internal projects, such as change projects, would be ignored as well as nearly all projects in the public sector. Therefore, any measurement based on the project output seems to be difficult, especially across project types. For these reasons, Wald et al. (2015) used the proportion of project work as a percentage of total work (measured in working hours) in an organization as the key indicator of the level of projectification. This input-oriented measurement can be applied to all types of projects, e.g. revenue generating external projects, but also internal change projects. It can be applied to all kinds of industries, and it is independent of organizational factors. A project is an undertaking largely characterized by the uniqueness of the conditions in their entirety. More specifically, an undertaking is defined as a project in the present study, if it fulfills the following conditions: • • • •

A specific target has been defined for the project. The project is limited in terms of time (start and end). The project requires specific resources (e. g. financial, staff, etc.). An independent process organization exists, which is defined as different from the standard organization in the company. 85

• • •

The project work is based on non-routine tasks. The project has a minimum duration of four weeks. The project has at least three participants.

Based on this definition of projects, respondents were asked to indicate the proportion of project work, as a percentage of the overall work worked within the organization, in the entire organization. This resulted in figures indicating projectification on the company level. The share of project work of the individual economic sectors (each containing different sub-sectors) was calculated as a mean value. Finally, the share of project work on the level of the entire economy was obtained by adding up the sectors’ shares of project work, weighted by the sector’s share on total GVA (see Wald et al., 2015 for more details).

Benchmark Study: Current and possible future value project work in Iceland The benchmark study conducted was used to measure and compare the metrics against the GVA baseline study and run on a regular basis (quarterly) to evaluate how the perception of participant changes over time. The study was designed to verify the alleged importance of project management within organizations by asking a larger sample of participants that are more homogeneous than the sample of participants in the GVA study, in many cases, managers and leaders who passed on the requests for economic figures to subordinates. As the benchmark study was solely conducted among people in high management positions in their companies these two studies will complement each other and give clear indication of the present and future state of project management in Iceland. The definition above of what constitutes a “project” was introduced to the participants, and the sample of 1,356 participants were asked about (1) the application of project management within their organization in compliance of the definition of projects by Wald et al. (2015), and (2) the what they saw as a likely trend in the application of project management in the near future (12 months) within their organization. The survey was embedded in a management survey that is done quarterly by a survey company named Market and Media Research (MMR). Compared to the GVA the method was simpler, it included more participants, and was less costly. The survey measured, among the participant, the overall perception of project management and the application of it as a discipline. As the management survey is ongoing, and conducted four times a year, valuable information on the development of the PPP profession can be observed over time. The NACE (Nomenclature of Economic Activities) economic sectors classification was used as a basis to ensure international comparability (see figure 1) but it is the European statistical classification of economic activities. Statistics produced on the basis of NACE are comparable at European level and, in general, at world level through the United Nations' International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC). Despite industrial structural differences between Iceland and Germany, the same 10 industrial sectors were used. For the sake of simplifying the study, four sectors - construction, real estate, corporate service providers and agriculture - were excluded from the survey but their impact estimated by experts instead. The same weights were used in Iceland as in Germany.

Figure 4. Process of data aggregation (Source: Wald et al., 2015: 26) A research company was hired to conduct the data collection. A list of questions was sent to participants within targeted organizations, this was followed by emails and then telephone interviews. The population sample included the 1,000 largest organizations in Iceland and the final sample included 142 companies with an average size of 125 employees. All in all, 18 questions were asked on internal and external projects and economic figures on sectors were obtained from the Iceland Statistics (Hagstofan, 2016).

Results The results from the two studies are introduced separately: First the results from the GVA study will pe presented and then the results from the Benchmark (MMR) study.

Results from the GVA study The primary research in the GVA study delivered 142 answers on the value of project categorized by the six sectors included in the survey. For clarification, the total Gross Value Added in Iceland in the year 2014 was 1.530.775 m ISK (figure 2).

Agriculture Information and communication Other service providers + construction + real estate + corporate service providers

Industry

Financial services & insurance Corporate service Real estate Retail / transport / hospitality / tourism Public sector, education, health Construction Manufacturing industry (excluding construction & oil and gas) -

50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0 300,0 350,0 400,0

m ISK

Figure 5. The Gross Value Added (GVA) of Icelandic industries (grey columns = estimated values). The largest sector generally in terms of Gross Value Added economically turned out to be the public sector, followed by the retail/transport/hospitality sector and then industrial manufacturing. Next, the projects were categorized according to whether they were internal or external projects. The internal projects were then classified into types.

Infrastructure projects

Marketing/sales projects

R&D/New product development projects

IT projects

Organizational / HR projects

No. of cases Commissioned projects

External Projects

Internal Projects

Manufacturing industry

14%

20%

21%

14%

17%

Retail/transport/hospitality/tourism

17%

22%

18%

15%

20%

Information and communication

20%

23%

16%

10%

20%

10%

Financial services & insurance

16%

15%

18%

20%

16%

Public sector, education, health

16%

20%

15%

20%

19%

10%

Other service providers

14%

21%

17%

14%

16%

Total

16%

19%

17%

18%

13%

142

39 17 9 41

Table 5. The ratio (%) of projects classified by project types and external/external projects.

The internal project types ratios are, on average, very similar across the sectors. Among all projects from different sectors, IT and infrastructure projects score highest and organizational and human resource (HR) projects scored the lowest, however, the range is only 3%. The external projects are relatively fewer (13%) and the range is also higher, as the cross industrial differences are 6%. The majority of Icelandic projects (â&#x2030;&#x2C6; 85%) are internal projects, with IT projects being the most frequent/numerous. Next is the relative share (%) of work assigned to projects in different industrial sectors at three instances in timeâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;the past (2009), close to present (2014) and in the future (2019). The year 2014 was selected to exhibit the present situation, partly due to reliable information access and partly to be able to compare the results to the German study which was conducted earlier.

Sector

Share of project work 2009

Share of project work 2014

Share of project work 2019 F

Agriculture, forestry and fishing*

4,0%

B-E

Manufacturing industry (excluding construction)

2,6%

3,4%

4,6%

G-I

Retail / transport / hospitality / tourism

13,1%

18,2%

24,4%

Information and communication

39,2%

47,8%

51,2%

Financial services & insurance

34,8%

34,2%

37,5%

O-Q

Public sector, education, health

32,1%

33,3%

40,9%

Real estate

2,0%

Construction*

80,0%

M-N

Corporate service providers*

60,0%

S+F+L+ M-N

Other service providers

37,2%

42,7%

47,2%

Total

25,0 %

27,7 %

31,5 %

NACE Code

Table 6. The share of work (%) assigned to projects in different sectors at three points in time. The average share of projects in according to the GVA in Iceland was 25% in 2009 and is expected to rise to 31,5% in 2019. That is a relative growth of 21%.

Results from the Benchmark study In the benchmark study the population included 1,356 managers and 768 of these answered (56,6%). The responses were linked to turnover, no. of employees, industrial sector, trade and region. Figure 5 includes the results from the question: Do you think that the impact of project management will increase, stay the same, or decrease in the next 12-month period?

Do you think that the impact of project management will increase, stay the same or decrease in the next 12-month period? Huge increase

Considerable increase

The same

Considerable decrease

Huge decrease

6,7%

39,6%

52,4%

0,5%

200-999

8,7%

47,6%

43,0%

0,5%

1000-5000

8,8%

54,4%

35,3%

0,5%

More than 5000

11,3%

62,3%

25,5%

0,5%

Less than 10

5,8%

39,0%

53,1%

1,0%

11-49

10,3%

49,4%

39,7%

0,5%

50-149

4,9%

60,8%

33,3%

0,5%

More than 150

11,8%

63,5%

22,4%

2,0%

0,0%

Manufacturing

9,1%

38,6%

51,5%

1,0%

0,0%

Service

9,1%

56,0%

33,3%

1,0%

0,5%

Retail/wholesale Fisheries/food production

3,2%

43,2%

52,8%

0,5%

5,6%

42,6%

50,0%

2,0%

0,0%

Consumer market

7,7%

47,5%

42,1%

2,0%

1,0%

B2B market

10,6%

46,5%

42,4%

0,0%

Both

5,7%

52,0%

41,3%

0,5%

Capital area

9,3%

47,1%

42,4%

1,0%

0,0%

Rural area

4,1%

51,2%

43,5%

1,0%

0,0%

Turnover (m ISK) Less or equal to 199

# of employees

Occupation

Industry

Area

Table 7. The total results of questions on the development of project management impact. To have a clearer picture, the participants believing that the impact will increase are added together. The results are decisive, as approx. 60% of the managers asked, do expect increase of both of the application and importance of project management. Hardly any of the managers asked think that project management will decrease in importance in the immediate future.

80,0%

Increase of impact

70,0% 60,0% 50,0% 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% Less or equal to 199

200-999

1000-5000

More than 5000

Turnover (m ISK)

Figure 6. Increase of project management impact in the context of capital turnover (m ISK). Figure 6 shows graphically how the impact increases as turnover increases (R2=0,98).

80,0%

Increase of impact

70,0% 60,0% 50,0% 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% Less than 10

11-49

50-149

More than 150

# of employees

Figure 7. Increase of project management impact in the context of number of employees. Figure 7 shows graphically how the impact increases as no. of employees increases (R2=0,98). Table 8 includes the results from the question: How common or uncommon is the application of project management in your company in the context of the description of the discipline?

How common or uncommon is the application of project management in your company in the context of the description of the discipline? Turnover (m ISK)

Very common

Rather common

Rather uncommon

Very uncommon

Less or equal to 199

7,9%

22,8%

34,4%

34,9%

200-999

14,9%

28,1%

31,4%

25,6%

1000-5000

19,7%

33,3%

28,0%

18,9%

More than 5000

30,2%

42,5%

21,7%

5,7%

Less than 10

6,9%

23,6%

34,4%

35,1%

11-49

16,1%

28,9%

35,6%

19,5%

50-149

13,7%

45,1%

24,5%

16,7%

More than 150

37,3%

44,6%

16,9%

1,2%

Manufacturing

19,0%

31,7%

28,6%

20,6%

Service

19,7%

30,7%

24,6%

25,0%

Retail/wholesale Fisheries/food production

4,2%

18,5%

47,9%

29,4%

6,0%

32,0%

34,0%

28,0%

Consumer market

10,7%

25,4%

36,2%

27,7%

B2B market

19,5%

27,2%

26,2%

Both

15,1%

37,4%

28,4%

19,1%

Capital area

14,5%

32,1%

29,6%

23,7%

Rural area

10,8%

24,8%

33,8%

30,6%

# of employees

Occupation

Industry

Area

Table 8. The total results of questions on the development of project management application. The application of professional project management increases with the size of the organization. For instance, only 30,5% of the smallest companies deploy project management, whereas 81,9% of the largest companies do. Professional project management is most widely used within the manufacturing and service sectors, however, least applied within the retail and wholesale sectors. Project management is also significantly more frequently applied in the capital areas than the rural areas; 46,6% and 35,6% respectively. To gain a clearer picture, the participants who are of the opinion that the application of project management will increase are added together. The results are decisive - particularly in the context of the numbers of employees - as approximately 70% of the managers believe there will be an increase in the application of professional project management within their sector. Figure 8 shows the increase of 93

projects as a percentage of monetary turnover. And Figure 9 shows the increase of projects as a percentage of the number of employees.

80,0%

Common application of PM

70,0% 60,0% 50,0% 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% Less or equal to 199

200-999

1000-5000

More than 5000

Turnover (m ISK)

Figure 8. The increase of project commonality in the context of turnover (m ISK).

90,0%

Common application of PM

80,0% 70,0% 60,0% 50,0% 40,0% 30,0% 20,0% 10,0% 0,0% Less than 10

11-49

50-149

More than 150

# employees

Figure 9. The increase of project commonality in relations to number of employees.

Discussion The economic results are interesting, as they indicate that 27,7% of the GVA in the Icelandic economy are contributed via project work. This is somewhat less than in Germany and Norway (Wald et al., 2015, Wald et al, 2016), but nonetheless a significant part of the overall national economy. Moreover, the 94

participants estimate that this will rise to 31,5% in coming years (2019) which means a relative growth of 21% in work assigned to projects from 2009 to 2014. Another interesting result is that there is a significant difference in the view of the managers in the context of the size of the organization. Trust in the growing impact of project management increases in positive correlation with the number of employees and capital turnover of the company. The results are also significant in verifying the importance of project management in the Icelandic economy. Close to 50% of the managers in the different industries agree that the use of project management is common. Again, the same trends are spotted as before. The size of the company shapes the attitude towards the application of project management in compliance with the description of the discipline provided in the survey. To cite an example, 30,7% of managers in companies with a turnover of less than 199 m ISK find project management to be very common or rather common compared to 72,7% among their peers in companies with a turnover exceeding 5000 m ISK. This is a relative difference of 137%. The difference is even more striking when compared to the number of employees. In spite of significant interest in project management in Iceland and a strong response from industry and academia, other studies indicate insufficient governance platform (Fridgeirsson, 2015). When the economic impact is considered, the call for reforms in the public sector is urgent, a claim that is supported, for example, by the reports published by the Icelandic government (INR, 2016). Another interesting contribution is how the high-level managers on Icelandic organizations view the importance of projects and project management. Their interest both in the profession as such and in apply project management clearly shows, and their belief in the significance of project management is positively correlated with the size of the organization they manage. All this indicates a progression towards the increased appreciation for the project management profession. Two very different research approaches were used in the research. The first was a detailed survey of the economic impact of projects through the application of a method that had already been tested in Germany. This method yields a quantitative assessment of the gross added value of project work within the countryÂ´s economy, and a prognosis on how this will evolve in the near future. The second was a general survey of a large sample of managers in Iceland, where they estimated the present and future level of projectification of their organisations. But in context the results yield a very revealing portrait of the projectification of the Icelandic economy, which can be viewed in reference to the size, turnover and type of the organisations, as well as other variables. The two research approaches complement each other and could be applied in a systematic way to give a longitudinal view of the evolution of projectification in society. The first part is more complicated and expensive in execution, and could be done with longer intervals, whereas the second part takes less effort and can be used to monitor the evolution more regularly.

Conclusion This study had four objectives; (i) to investigate the importance of projects and the project management within Icelandic organizations, (ii) to investigate the importance of projects and project management within the Icelandic business community, (iii) to investigate whether the project management profession is becoming stronger or not, and (iv) to describe an alternative method for measuring the impact of projects. All objectives were met, and the research finding clearly demonstrates how instrumental projects and their professional management are for modern societies.

This study reveals that project work contributes greatly in terms of economic value to the Icelandic economy. This correlates with findings in other countries where the economic contribution of project management has been studied. In Germany, 37,7% of the GVA in the economy can be traced to projects, and in Norway this number is 32,6% (Wald et al, 2016). In these countries, forecasts indicate further increased importance of project work in the near future. In Iceland, 27,7% of the GVA can is based on project related work, indicating that the monetary benefits of projects is in 2014 vicinity of 425 billion ISK (0,277 x 1.530.775 m) a year and growing. Forecasted numbers are 31.5 in 2019. Based on these findings it becomes clear that project management knowledge and professional experience, should play a major role as a part of the overall strategies and tactics in all sectors of the economy and society. In light of the large sums of money funneled through the economy via projects, every improvement, be it big or small, results in financial rewards. It is timely to consider how much projects influence industry, the public sector, the economy and society. This study can also be seen as a contribution to further the development of metrics that can inspire future visions and strategies with regards to the development of the project management profession.

References Fridgeirsson Th.V. (2015). Improvement of the Governance and Management of Icelandic Public Projects, PhD. Dissertation January 2015. Reykjavik University. Accessible at http://skemman.is/item/view/1946/23278 Hodgson, D. & Muzion, M. (2012). Prospect for professionalism in project management, The Oxford Handbook of Project Management, Oxford University Press, 105-130, Oxford. Kerzner, H. (2009). Kerzner, H. Project Management, 10ed., John Wiley and sons, Hoboken, New Jersey. INR (2016). Ministry of Transport and Local Government. Project Governance (Markviss notkun fjármuna til samgönguframkvæmda). Retrieved 23.05.2017 from https://www.innanrikisraduneyti.is/media/frettir-2016/Skyrsla-um-opinberar-framkvaemdir--lokautgafa.pdf Hagstofan, (2016). Iceland in figures 2016. Retrieved 24.01.2017 from http://www.statice.is/media/49863/icelandinfigures2016.pdf Ingason, H. Th, Fridgeirsson, Th.V., Jonasson H.I. (2019). Project management in Iceland: The path to a profession. Not yet published. Midler, C. (1995). Projectification of the firm: The Renault case. Scandinavian Journal of Management, 11(4), 363–375. Morris et al. (2012). Morris, P.W.G, Pinto, J. & Söderlund, J., Towards the Third Wave of Project Management, Oxford Handbook of Project Management (p. 1-11), Oxford University Press. Morris (2012). Morris, P.W.G, A Brief History of Project Management, Oxford Handbook of Project Management (p. 15-36), Oxford University Press. MPM (2017). Master of Project Management database, available at Reykjavik University, Iceland.

PMI (2012). Project Management Institute. Retrieved June 10, 2014 from http://www.pminic.org/public/digitallibrary/Assemblea%20Gen%202013%20%203.%20Portfolio%20Management%203rd%20Edition.pdf PMI (2006). Project Management Institute, The Standard for Program Management. Newton Square, PA: Author. PMI (2008). Project Management Institute, A guide to project management body of knowledge (PMBOK 4ed). Newton Square, PA: Author. PMI (2017). Project Management Institute, A guide to project management body of knowledge (PMBOK 6ed). Newton Square, PA: Author. VSF (2017a). Project Management Association of Iceland. Retrieved April 6th, 2017 from http://www.vsf.is/files/Halfnad%20er%20verk_FINAL_web_263760441.pdf VSF (2017b). E-mail to authors from the Project Management Association of Iceland, received January 30th, 2107. Turner et al. (2012). Turner, R., Pinto, J. & Bredillet, C. The Evolution of Project Management Research, The Evidence from the Journals, Oxford Handbook of Project Management (p. 66-106), Oxford University Press. Wald, A., Schneider, C., Spanuth, T., Schoper, Y. (2015) Towards a Measurement of “Projectification”: A Study on the Share of Project-Work in the German Economy. In: Wald, A., Wagner, R., Schneider, C., Gschwendtner, M. (eds.): Advanced Project Management: Flexibility and Innovative Capacity. Volume 4. Nürnberg: GPM, pp. 18-36. Wald, A., Aguilar Velasco, M.M., Torbjørn, B., Grønvold, A., Skeibrok, J., Svensson, F.L. (2016) Projektifizierung auch im Norden: Der Anteil der Projektarbeit in Deutschland und Norwegen im Vergleich. Projektmanagement aktuell, 27 (4), pp. 50-55.

Project Management in Iceland and Beyond: Expected Future Trends for Project Management and the Project Management Profession - Paper 3 of 3 in a series on the history, status and future of project management in Iceland. Helgi Þór Ingasona, Þórður Víkingur Friðgeirssona, Haukur Ingi Jónassona a School of Technology, Reykjavik University, Menntavegi 1, 101 Reykjavík Fyrirspurnir: Helgi Þór Ingason helgithor@ru.is Greinin barst 23. janúar 2019 Samþykkt til birtingar 16. desember 2019

Ágrip Í þessari þriðju grein um sögu, stöðu og þróun verkefnastjórnunar á Íslandi beinum við sjónum okkar að framtíðinni og veltum fyrir okkur hvernig þessi faggrein gæti þróast á komandi árum. Byggt er á nýlegri rannsókn frá Þýskalandi þar sem fjórtan framtíðarstraumar og -stefnur í faginu voru skilgreindar, án þess þó að forgangsraða þeim eða raða eftir mikilvægi. Til að greina mikilvægustu framtíðarstrauma vekrefnastjórnunar á Íslandi var Delphi aðferð beitt og niðurstaðan var sú að fjórir mikilvægustu framtíðarstraumarnir væru (1) Verkefnadrifnar skipulagsheildir; (2) Verkefnastjórnun fær aukið vægi og viðurkenningu á borði fyrirtækjastjórna; (3) Aukið flækjustig og áhrif þessa á verkefnin og (4) Verkefnastjórnun verður viðurkennd faggrein. Rýnihópur sérfræðinga spáði í þessar almennu niðurstöður og dýpkaði þær. Lykilorð: Framtíðarstraumar, verkefnavæðing, Delphi aðferð, skapandi hugsun.

Abstract In this third paper under the heading Project management in Iceland, future trends in the project management and within the project management profession are investigated and benchmarked against recent research in Germany on the same topic. Fourteen interrelated future trends were identified but neither prioritized nor relatively weighted. To detect the most important future trends of project management in Iceland, a two-round Delphi survey was arranged to rank them according to significance. The four most important future trends are: (1) Project-oriented organizations; (2) Project management being acknowledged and discussed in corporate boardrooms; (3) Increased complexity and how this affects projects, and (4) Professionalization of project management. An expert focus group was established to elaborate on these future trends. Keywords: Future trends, projectification, Delphi survey, design thinking.

Introduction The context of this paper This is the third and final paper in a series of articles headlined as “Project management in Iceland” on the evolution of project management and the project management profession in Iceland, which is a fast evolving, developed, Nordic country. The first paper explored the history of project management in Iceland, how project management has evolved as a profession, and the present situation in Iceland in this regard. The second paper discussed the economic significance of projects within the Icelandic economy in the context of present gross value added through project work, and how this has evolved in recent decades. It also compared the situation in Iceland to that in Norway and Germany, where similar research has taken place in recent years. This third and final paper, will explore the future, meaning how the importance of project work might evolve within the Icelandic economy, how the project management discipline might develop, and what major themes and trends might constitute to be the most important ones in this evolution in the coming years. Projectification, introduction of the term and what is known — in general Before we dig deeper into the Icelandic reality, let us start with a short detour by looking at the concept of projectification of society. The concept of projectification was introduced in a paper by Christophe Midler in 1995, in which he discussed research into the evolution of the French car manufacturer Renault between 1960 and 1990. This research showed that the success of the company increased over this period, as it evolved from being a traditional, functional organisation into a more horizontal, matrix organisation. Project managers were given more authority, and the application of project management was introduced as a way of running the business. The organisation took steps in this period towards becoming projectified. Midler et al. were the co-authors of another paper (Lundin, Midler and Wåhlin, 2015) on projectification, and how the projectification of organisations gradually influences societies in such a way that they become projectified. The notion of projectification has thus emerged through the years and projects have become a general form of work in organisations in all sectors of the economy. Maylor et al. (2006) discussed the emerging notion of projectification and argued that the term projectification has extended the definition of a project and emphasised that the establishment of programmes and portfolios has become a mechanism for managing organisations.

An indication of increased projectification of society can be seen in the regular reports on project management published by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC). A report from 2012 is based on interviews with people in management positions in organisations all over the world. An overwhelming majority considers project management to be a key success factor in any operation and a precondition for growth. A comparison is given with a similar survey by PWC from 2004, showing how the project management maturity of participating organisations has evolved in the period between 2004 and 2012. The difference is striking—the maturity has increased considerably, and the organisations have become more projectified through this period. In fact, the participants in the 2012 survey planned to increase their maturity even more.

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Economic importance of projects The first proposal to outline the projectification of societies in financial terms was made in 2015, when Wald et al. designed a method for assessing the economic impact of projects and applied this tool to the German economy. The share of project work in relation to total work in an organization is used as an indicator of projectification. This is an input-oriented measurement and can be applied to all types of projects, both external and internal, and it can be applied to all kinds of industries - independent of organizational factors. In this study, an undertaking is defined as a project if it fulfills a set of specific conditions: there is a specific target for the project, it is limited in terms of time, it requires specific resources, there exists an independent organization for the project, the project consists of non-routine tasks, it has a minimum duration of four weeks and at least three participants. 500 private and public organizations in Germany participated in the study, and the results show that the proportion of project work in total working hours in Germany in 2013 was 34.7% and estimated to rise to 41.3% by 2019. The assessment method and the results of this research are thoroughly described by Wald et al. (2015). Why is it important to understand future development? It is said that we need to know the past to understand the present and to plan for the future. Planning for the future is of utmost importance in modern times, not only for organizations that want to define their policies and create strategic plans, but also for societies who need to ensure that they build up the necessary infrastructure and support to maintain their competitive advantage and ensure the prosperity of their citizens. The economic weight of projects underlines the importance of enhancing professional project management in all layers of society, and this development must be monitored regularly in a systematic and consistent way to prepare for the future.

In the first two papers of this series, we have shed light on the development of project management in Icelandic society and its weight/importance in the economy at the present time. It is now time to look ahead and assess how things will evolve in the near future, and in this paper an attempt will be made to map the most important future trends regarding project management in Iceland. This information is valuable for organisations who wish to build up their infrastructure and resources to compete in a business environment that is characterised by continuous change and increasing demands. An understanding of future development is also valuable at state/national level, for those who define official policy and set laws and create frameworks for the use of public funds. Last but not least, understanding future development is necessary for educational institutions who need to keep up to speed and review and renew their emphases/priorities and offeringsâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;in order to ensure that they can provide future students with the best possible education and training.

Literature â&#x20AC;&#x201C; the future of project management Morris (2013) gave an overview of how the discipline of project management has developed from the middle of the 20th century to the present time. Stages of this development include the planning and control stage with its focus on early planning and control tools, and the focus on engineering complexity and urgency, and this was the major focus of project management until the late 1970s. Organisation theory and the concept of the temporary organisation was introduced in the 1990s, and this was also the time when the project management associations published the first versions of their bodies of knowledge. Enterprise-wide project management was introduced as a concept in the last years of the 20th century, but around the turn of the century, agility gained more and more attention. According to 101

Morris (2013), the major drivers in project management at present have to do with social challenges, funding, the need for increased competency in project management, a more value driven approach and leadership.

The major drivers in project management today—as seen by Morris (2013)—are reflected in the way some academics talk about forthcoming trends and emphases in project management research and practice. Project management has reached a certain level of maturity, and the future focus of project management will be more on the organisational context, program and portfolio management (Grau, 2011). This includes effective governance of projects, programs and portfolios, human resource management and a general change in emphasis from specific technical and industrial issues to a broader organisational context (Turner, Anbari and Bredillet, 2013; Pollack and Adler, 2015; Geraldi and Söderlund, 2017). We will also be seeing a refinement of the understanding of success in projects, renewed definitions of success factors and success criteria, a broader conceptualisation of projects and a need to look at the wider picture - as seen from the organisation—rather than the narrow project picture (Turner, Anbari and Bredillet, 2013; Dalcher, 2016). A related, important issue is organisational strategy and its link to project management, together with macro project studies and strategy of project-oriented organisations (Turner, Anbari and Bredillet, 2013; Pollack and Adler, 2015; Geraldi and Söderlund, 2017).

Increased complexity and how to deal with this will also be a major issue for the future (Sveivik and Andersen, 2015; Dalcher, 2016). Last but not least, an increased focus on environmental issues and the enormous challenges humankind is faced with will be an important variable for future research and practice in project management (Morris, 2013; Pollack, Adler, 2015). This is a key message of Morris in his book from 2013 on reconstructing project management, where he talks about global warming and the overwhelming and increasing importance of all its consequences, and claims that project, program and portfolio management will have a huge role in making sure that implementation perspectives are taken into account in the forming of strategy and creation of policy (Morris, 2013).

Useful information about ongoing trends in project management can also be found in the topics addressed at some of the more important project management research conferences. In June of 2017, the biennial IRNOP (http://irnopboston.org, International Research Network on Organizing by Projects) conference was held in Boston. At the conference a total of 81 presentations were given on a wide range of project management themes, where half of the presentations had to do with the organisational perspectives of projects and projects in the context of the organisation. Examples of such themes are leadership and decision making, megaprojects, programs and portfolios, stakeholder management and sustainability in project management, which has become an import topic. Similar trends could be seen in the annual EURAM (www.euram-online.org, European Academy of Management) management conference in Glasgow in June 2017, in Iceland in June 2018 and in Lisbon in June 2019. This indicates how the field of project management has been broadening and will continue to broaden in the coming years and be even more concerned with the management of project-oriented organisations, rather than with the management of individual projects.

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A German research group presented a hypothesis about the future of project management in 2025 (Gemünden and Schoper, 2014; Schoper, Gemünden and Nguyen, 2015). This was the outcome of the collaboration of an expert panel of practitioners and researchers, organized by the team. A qualitative research approach was used, and the sample used consisted of a diverse group of 338 international experts, divided equally into project management researchers and international project management practitioners. The participants were asked about their expectations concerning future trends in project management. More specifically, the participants reflected on the following statement: “Please describe the five trends in project management which you consider to be the most important, and which you expect will be evident between now and 2025.” Analysis of the data produced the following 12 trends:

1. Projectification of societies: Project management will become more widely dispersed in all sectors of societies. 2. Coping with complexity: Increasing complexity in projects because of, e.g., globalization, urbanization and increasingly complex systems technologies. 3. Trans-nationalization of project management with alignment to world markets with consistent standardized concepts. 4. Virtualization of project management: Managing projects increasingly through Information and communications technology (ICT) support. 5. Women in project management; the growing number of women in all stakeholder functions in projects. 6. Professionalisation of project management: The occupation of project management will transform itself into a true profession, presenting the highest levels of competence. 7. Education in project management: The offerings for learning project management by universities, industry and professional organizations will increase on all levels of skills. 8. Project management research: An increasing volume of research on the existence, antecedents and impacts of project management practices, as well as the contingencies and dynamics of cause-effect relationships in projects and project management. 9. Stakeholder management: A more structured analysis of the frameworks for stakeholder management and the effects on project success. 10. Projects as business: Projects will be increasingly seen as an entrepreneurial undertaking to deliver business results. 11. Project management goes to the boardroom; Top management of organizations will become even more focused on the use of projects in achieving organizational goals. 12. Project-oriented organization: In a project-oriented organization, a major part of the value creation is delivered in projects. Project management is a core competence for such organizations and business functions are aligned to foster project management. The case of Iceland The Icelandic economic system The Republic of Iceland is a sparsely populated country with an area of 103,000 square kilometers and a population of 350,000 people. Iceland used to be a part of Denmark, and the country’s legislation is still largely based on the Danish legal system. Since the country’s gaining full sovereignty in 1944, a close relationship has been developed with the Scandinavian countries. Iceland has been a member of the European Economic Area (EEA) since 1994. Iceland is a prosperous country, with a GDP of almost 51 thousand USD per capita in 2015, according to the UN, the 12th highest GDP in the world. The export 103

economy is largely based on fisheries, aluminum production and tourism. Iceland is rich in resources with healthy fish stocks, hydro- and geothermal energy, huge water reservoirs and unique landscapes which attract many tourists. In 2013, 59% of import value and 78% of export value came from countries within the European Union (Hagstofan, 2016). Iceland scores highly on indexes indicating equality and human rights. Iceland is in 2nd place on the Gini index of income equality and in 16th place on the Human Development Index (Hagstofan, 2016). The total Gross Value Added in Iceland in the year 2014 was 12.000 million USD (1,530,775 millions ISK, using the exchange rate on Dec 31, 2014). Importance of projects in the Icelandic economy The initial study of Andreas Wald and colleagues (2015) provided a platform for studying Icelandic projectification and the economic impact of projects in Iceland. The Icelandic study was carried out in 2016 and is well described in our second paper (Fridgeirsson and Ingason, 2017) in this series.

142 companies from all economic sectors participated in the study, and the share of project work in terms of total working hours in Iceland in 2014 was shown to be 27.7%. The comparable figure for the year 2009 was 25%, and the ratio is estimated to rise to 31.5% by 2019. Another interesting finding from this research is that the share of commissioned external projects is only 13% of the total. In other words, the majority of all projects being executed in Icelandic organizations are internal projects; organizational and HR projects, IT projects, R&D and new product development projects, marketing/sales projects and infrastructure projects.

In addition to applying the original tool by Wald, a simple benchmark study with a much larger sample was also carried out to verify the outcome of the original study. In this benchmark study, a random sample of 768 managers in high management positions in Icelandic organizations assessed the status of project management within their companies. The majority, or 60% of participants believed that the impact of project management will increase, and hardly any of them think that project management will decrease in importance in the immediate future. In addition, it was clear that the size of organisationâ&#x20AC;&#x201D; in terms of the number of employees and/or turnoverâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;was positively correlated with the application of project management.

Method Delphi survey on most important trends in Iceland The aim of the study was to examine how project management practitioners in Iceland foresee the future of project management and the project management profession in Iceland. As a frame of reference, the study of GemĂźnden and Schoper (2014) was applied, where twelve future streams in project management were presented.

A Delphi method was used for data gathering. The Delphi method (or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE)) is a structured communication technique or method, developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method relying on a panel of experts. The method (Hsu and Sanford, 2007) is used as to collect data from individuals with similar knowledge and experience within the same field of expertise as to reach a 104

common conclusion. In most cases, 15 to 20 experts are chosen to participate. Delphi is based on a questionnaire for the specified field and answers cannot be traced to the participants. Typically, Delphi is executed in two rounds. Once the first round is complete, the results are processed and used for preparing the second round. Participants are now asked to rank the outcomes from the first round in order of importance. The main advantages of this method are that each participant responds individually and does not see the input of other participants. This ensures that there is no bias from other participants (Hsu and Sandford, 2007).

A questionnaire was prepared, presenting and outlining the twelve future streams. Participants were asked to arrange them in order of importance. Participants also recorded their gender and occupational classification according to the NACE classification which is The Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (NACE, 2019). This was done to facilitate comparison in case the survey is repeated at a later stage. The questionnaire was prepared using the SurveyMonkey web application for surveys. The survey was sent to recipients by email with detailed definitions of the 12 future trends, and further explanations of the purpose and structure of the survey. Once the results from the first round were reached, the second round was prepared and sent to the recipients in a similar way. In order to see if there was a decisive difference in the ranking of the trends, only the six top trends from the first round were used in the second round.

The panel of experts that participated in the Delphi survey were selected by the authors and consisted of experienced individuals from many industries. All participants have extensive knowledge of project management, due to their education and experience, and many of them have conducted research in the field. The survey was sent to a total of 34 individuals (12 women and 22 men).

Focus group on the output from the Delphi survey Focus group is a research method whose purpose is to collect data from a group interaction of people who have experience or are likely to contribute something meaningful regarding the topic under investigation. The method is very valuable in an initial phase of research as to help prepare for the main data collection phase, e.g., as a precursor to the development of a more structured instrument. Focus groups should preferably consist of 6-8 persons. The researcher defines the topic and participants are encouraged to exchange ideas and opinions, giving a deeper perspective to the topic. When people interact with each other, the result can be more powerful than in a one-on-one interview. Focus groups should feel informal but should still be structured to a degree. The moderator is responsible for leading the discussion and questions should not exceed 10 per hour. The secretary at the meeting should take notes and be responsible for recording the meeting if required (Robson & McCartan, 2011).

The decision was made to conduct a workshop as part of a focus group. The reasoning behind this decision was that interviews would restrict the quality of collected information. The aim of the project was to verify the results of the Delphi survey, based on the study of GemĂźnden and Schoper (2014). Focus groups allow the participants to be creative and to think outside the box. Therefore, the focus group was the ideal method to acquire the required information.

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Stratified, purposeful sampling was applied to ensure that the focus group participants represented a number of disciplinary affiliations and work profiles (Lyons, 2000). Out of the eight participants, five were males and three were females. The age distribution in the group was 25 - 54 years. All participants have university degrees at master´s level— MBA, social science, civil engineering, computer engineering and humanities. Three of the participants had completed an executive master´s program in project management (MPM program). The participants represented companies from different business sectors, consulting firms, a financial institution, a civil contractor, an electric power production company, an IT contractor and an aviation services company. All participants had experience in project management, ranging from moderate to extensive. Three of them had an international IPMA project management certification (C or B level) and two of them were coordinating extensive project management portfolios for their companies. Half of the participants had been active in the Icelandic Project Management Association and served as board members.

The focus group met for a 4-hour discussion on chosen topics, for which the participants had volunteered. The focus group discussion was prepared in such a way that it would be issue-driven and theory-based. The group was first introduced to some of the basic concepts of projectification and to the study on future trends in the project management discipline—as we have explained in this paper. Particular emphasis was put on explaining the four trends that scored highest in the Delphi study.

Design thinking methodology was used as a framework for the work session. All participants were divided into two groups that worked on the same subjects. The objective was to engage all participants in contributing and getting on board, and the focus was on sharing thoughts rather than on detailed discussion.

For each of the four trends, the following procedure was applied:   



The particular trend to be discussed was shown on a slide, with one focus question for that trend. Silent individual brainstorming for 5 minutes, during which each participant wrote his/her ideas on sticky notes. A 25-minute round the table sharing session. The participants shared their sticky notes, one note at a time, and put them on a wall. After all team members had shared their sticky notes, the group started to cluster the data. Common topics or patterns emerged, and the groups defined headlines for the different clusters. A 20-minute session where the two groups presented their findings and discussed them. The whole group agreed on a common understanding regarding the trend, before moving on to the next one.

The facilitation of the work session was mainly based on keeping to the timeline. Also, if participants got stuck in a detailed discussion, or if one participant took too much time to share her/his thoughts, a facilitator intervened in the discussion to keep to the timeline. Sometimes the participants ran into difficulties in clustering the data and in such cases a facilitator assisted the group. All results (sticky notes and headlines) were put on a whiteboard, photographed and documented digitally. All discussions were also recorded digitally.

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The focus group sample was small, yet it represented a fairly broad selection of disciplines, ensuring that a diversity of variations was possible. The common academic background and project management experience facilitated a sharing of common experience in the group. This accords with the maximum variation criteria elaborated by Lyons (2000). The age distribution was wide, the gender distribution was acceptable, and many different business sectors were represented in the focus group.

Results The Delphi survey Table 9 below shows the distribution of participants in the Delphi survey, according to the NACE classification. The *mark is used as to indicate the sectors that were excluded from the survey.

Table 9. Distribution of participants in Delphi survey.

NACE Code

Sector

Participants in 1st round

Participants in 2nd round

Agriculture, forestry and fishing*

B-E

Manufacturing industry (excluding construction)

G-I

Retail / transport / hospitality / tourism

Information and communication

Financial services & insurance

O-Q

Public sector, education, health

Real estate

Construction*

M-N

Corporate service providers*

S+F+L+ M-N

Other service providers

Total (male/female)

17/6

14/2

Table 10 shows the ranking of the twelve future trends (GemĂźnden and Schoper, 2014) after the first round of the Delphi survey. Defined by a panel of experts.

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Table 10. Ranking of the twelve trends in the Delphi survey - 1st round. Trend Coping with complexity Project management goes boardroom Project-oriented organization Professionalisation of project management Virtualization of project management Projectification of societies Trans-nationalization of project management Projects as business Education in project management Stakeholder management Women in project management Project management research

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

The trends ranked 1 to 6 were used in the 2nd round of the Delphi study. The results can be seen in Table 11. Table 11. Ranking of the twelve trends in the Delphi survey—2nd round. Trend Project-oriented organization Project management goes boardroom Coping with complexity Professionalisation of project management Projectification of societies Virtualization of project management

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6

Focus group discussions The focus questions were based on the top four future trends, according to the Delphi survey, and were as follows:

•

• •

Trend 1: Project-oriented organization—How do you see the project-oriented company in the year 2030? Rationale: To explore how the organizational structure of companies might change as a consequence of the foreseen development that a large part of the value creation of companies will be in the form of projects. Trend 2: Project management goes to the boardroom—How do you see the support and understanding of top management of organizations for projects and project management developing between now and the year 2030? Rationale: To explore whether leaders and managers of organizations will be involved in projects in a different way in the future, and if so how? Trend 3: Coping with complexity—What will be the response to the increased complexity of projects and project management between now and 2030? Rationale: To explore how traditional PM methods will have to change as to deal with increased future complexity. Trend 4: Professionalism of project management—How do you see project management developing as a profession between now and the year 2030? Rationale: To explore this development and

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speculate how educational institutions and the professional project management associations might best respond to it. The following are the results from the focus groups—and as explained above—compiled directly from their discussions:

The Project-oriented organization • Organizational structure: There will be changes within companies, whereby the focus will move from departmental structures to more focus on employees and projects. Employees will not be in fixed positions but rather participate in projects as needed for a certain time. More emphasis will be placed on defining employees’ competences and skills. • Knowledge and processes: A new generation will be open for new ways and ideas of how with regard to execute projects. ‘Gates’ and ‘phases’ will be used more, as well as program management, which will become more consolidated. When it comes to employees, the focus will be more on their flourishing and wellbeing. There will be an increased requirement for employees to have comprehensive skills and a more general knowledge of project management. • Strategy: There will be a clearer link between company strategy and project-orientation. Business strategy and budgeting will increasingly take projects into account where projects and project portfolios can be used effectively as to actualise both strategic and budgeting intentions. Project management will be seen as having a high stand in the value chain and project portfolios will link the shaping of strategy to execution for value. This will lead to more effective use of portfolio management, which will in return result in better utilization of resources. • Quality: Projects will increasingly be well-defined, and documentation will be centralized within organizations. Projects will have pre-defined benefits and not defined by only cost, schedule and quality. • Resources: Resources will not necessarily be part of the organization, but rather be pulled in based on the needs of projects. Project managers will be more specialized, and some might have special expertise of portfolio management. • Human factors: With more use of Artificial intelligence (AI) earned value and critical path will become automatic, but the human factor will be the challenge. Project managers will be challenged to combine people’s talents and to effectively get the most out of them. Project management goes to the boardroom • Ownership: There will be more focus on projects where project portfolios will be used effectively, and projects will be ranked according to importance. Managers will have ownership of projects related to the business. • Information sharing: Projects will have a project sponsor, who will own the project and follow it through as visible and measurable results will be seen as being increasingly important. Each project will be well monitored, and reports will be made to managers. • Change management: Change management will increasingly be used in business strategy implementation. • Education: Boards will demand more knowledge on project management and the focus will be on projects and project management. • Portfolio management: Managers will realize the value of project portfolio management and the concept of value added in the context of PPP management. 109

•

Professionalism: There will be a better understanding of what the difference is between a project and what is a day to day job. The importance of projects will grow, and the importance of defining projects with other companies will be increasingly used.

Coping with complexity • • • • • • •

Cooperation: There will be more focus on projects as investment and for long-term gain, rather than as a single contract and such cooperation with other companies will make projects more complex. Employees’ skills: In complex projects, emphasis will be on communications and skills. People will have to learn more languages, be more open minded and be able to work with different cultures. This will also call for increased specialization of employees. Technology: Better software solutions will be available. Flexibility: Project management will entail more flexibility and new methods. Agile and Scrum will be used more effectively to make complex tasks simpler. Increased analysis: Projects will be better defined from the beginning and with it will come more thorough analysis of risk and interests of different groups. Benefits: More emphasis will be placed on benefits and cooperation with those who buy the end product or service. Professionalism: There will be better supervision of projects where processes and documentation will be stricter.

Professionalization of project management • • •

•

Professional title: Ethics and standards will be more apparent and project managers might be awarded a regulated professional title. Certification: There were different views on certification of project managers, but overall the panel agreed that there will be increased demand for certification from the public sector, and this will entail an extra dimension where project managers have more specialised knowledge. Education: Universities will set requirements for a general knowledge of project management and project management will develop in a similar way as the human resource management has developed. Companies are likely to have a team which focuses on complex projects, in similar fashion as does a human resources management department with regards to staff. Research: More research will be done on topics with project management as the focus.

Discussion and conclusion Our findings indicate a noteworthy development, whereby future trends in project management will be characterized by a shift from a focus on conventional, permanent organisations towards a keener focus on the ‘temporary organization’ of projects and programmes. We also expect a stronger focus on individual project managers and their leadership abilities. This shift will call for more emphasis on comprehensive skills and general project management knowledge at a higher level. Our findings further indicate that the use of IT-technologies and artificial intelligence (AI) in project planning, organizing and estimation, will make many project management practices increasingly automated. Instead of invalidating the future role of the project manager, it will enhance this role and demand a higher level of leadership competences, such as an increased ability to deal both with intra110

and interpersonal issues on a higher level—i.e. to deal with self-managerial challenges, communication skills and cultural awareness—and the ability to deal with increased complexity. Similarly, agile approaches will continue to be used as methods to better manage complexity through iterations and dynamic approaches to project management. We predict that project management as a profession will be increasingly valued in future, and that project management standards and ethical codes of conduct will be increasingly important. Project portfolios will link the shaping of strategy to execution, and boards of directors/boardrooms will demand more information on planned and ongoing projects. Managers will serve as project sponsors and have ownership of projects relating to other business areas, and they will be held accountable for project outcomes. There will be more emphasis on projects as investments and for long-term gain. Our findings are in line with some of the key references detailed in the literature review section of the paper. There will be an increased demand for project management competency (Morris, 2013), the discipline will focus more on the organisational context (Turner, Anbari and Bredillet, 2013; Pollack and Adler, 2015; Geraldi and Söderlund, 2017), and higher levels of complexity will demand the professional ability required to deal with them (Sveivik and Andersen, 2015; Dalcher, 2016). The predicted trend of the project manager´s role is that it will require independent people who are able to work in a self-reliant manner. This is to some extent the opposite of being a company employee. The future professional project manager will increasingly assume the role of an internal or external consultant on whom the project owner can rely when it comes to executing strategy and getting things done. This trend should be taken into account when defining the professional standards of the project management profession and shaping future educational and training programs for project managers. As stated at the beginning, this paper is the last of three papers on project management in Iceland. It illustrates how project management and the project management profession has crystalized within the Icelandic society, a small Nordic community known for the independent character of its people, who possess high levels of creativity and strong social capital. It also illustrates how a method from the world of engineering, based on mathematical optimization and operational research has developed into a substantial profession of well-equipped doers/achievers who can work both independently and with others to shape our future. This study—and the other two articles on the evolving on project management in Iceland—indicate that the discipline of project management will play a significant role in defining organization theory in the future, impact the role of line- and functional managers, and advance organizations towards a more behaviourally-based set up. Project management (project, programme and portfolio management) is the contemporary solution to our future need to deal with complexity through agility and versatility.

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