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August 1, 2016
www.usedcarnews.com
NAAA Expects Auction Volumes to Set Record
Photo courtesy of DAA Northwest ROCK AND ROLL: Vehicles line up before the annual Rock & Roll sales at DAA Northwest. While events draw extra large consignments, all sales are seeing larger runs this year as off-lease inventory boosts volumes. By Ted Craig
Rush - Dated Material
Auction volumes are on pace to set a new record this year, although a second quarter slowdown creates some concerns. National Auto Auction Association chief economist Ira Silver said the auctions are set to run 9.7 million units in 2016. That tops the old record of 9.6 million units set in 2004. The record won’t stand for long, however. Silver projects volumes of 10 million units next year. The increase in consignment comes from higher volumes from commercial consignors.
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Dealer consignment is growing more slowly because retail new-car sales have slowed. This has the industry wary about increased incentives from the manufacturers. “That’s always the concern when sales weaken,� Silver said. Being on pace for a new record is different than setting a new record, however, and recent data from Kelley Blue Book does raise some doubts about the industry reaching that mark. Kelley reports that auction volume has declined slightly, despite peaking in the first quarter of 2016 from off-lease vehicle returns. Year-over-year auction volume
is up 11 percent, but there was a 2 percent decrease in the number of vehicles running through the lanes in the second quarter. “Despite what we know about the increase in lease returns for the foreseeable future, it’s interesting to note that Kelley Blue Book field analysts are seeing a decrease in auction inventory from last quarter,� said Kelley analyst Sean Foyil. “With auction volume at an alltime high for 2016, it is unusual that the overall average decline in auction values matched last year’s pace.� Overall, auction values for used 1- to 3-year-old vehicles declined
3.6 percent, or roughly $671, in the second quarter of 2016. While the first quarter was unusual, the second quarter decline was less drastic than Kelley Blue Book analysts expected. One segment that is doing especially well this year is sports cars, Kelley reports. Low fuel prices and seasonal trends caused the sports car segment to outperform every other segment in the used-car market in the second quarter. In fact, nearly every vehicle within the segment outperformed the overall market average, with a yearto-date increase of 1.5 percent.
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