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May 16, 2016
www.usedcarnews.com
Even Trucks Feel Pressure from Supply Surge
KEEP ON TRUCKING: Full-size pickups, like this Toyota Tundra, are the lone strong performers in the wholesale market these days. The overall truck segment remains strong compared to cars, but is starting to come down to more normal levels.
By Ted Craig
Rush - Dated Material
In today’s wholesale markets, the good news isn’t great and the strongest segments are growing weaker. Manheim announced that auction prices as it measures them rose in April, causing the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to move up for the first time this year. The index now stands at 122.8. Manheim chief economist Tom Webb said the upward movement was “temporary.� The influx of off-lease vehicles and new-car trades continues to place pressure on wholesale prices. Webb does not expect “a near-
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term collapse in pricing.� Part of the reason for April’s higher prices was a large quantity of nearly new units. The average mileage on all auction sales in April was the lowest since January 2011. In the rental car segment, the average mileage at 41,137 miles was the lowest since September 2014. Strong truck demand has helped keep wholesale prices from declining at an even faster rate. But even this segment is starting to show some strain. Anil Goyal, senior vice president of operations at Black Book, reports that trucks depreciated
by 13 percent year-over-year in the first quarter, compared with 20 percent for cars. In 2015, trucks depreciated by 9 percent for the entire year, while cars depreciated by 18 percent. “There’s still a pretty healthy spread,� Goyal said. “But there’s more truck depreciation.� There are a number of factors in play here, he said. One is a return to the mean. Truck prices were so high they drove away bidders, lowering the price. Gas prices are still very low, but are higher than at the start of
the year. Finally, there is a substation effect. Goyal said consumers shop a much wider range of vehicles than many assume. They will often opt for a compact car if a compact crossover proves too expensive. While consignors might worry about getting less at auction, dealers welcome the decline. This is especially true of in-demand inventory like trucks. “A modest easing in wholesale pricing would be welcomed by dealers, and it would not be overly painful for commercial consignors,� Webb said.
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