Used Car News 1/18/16

Page 1

1-800-554-1026 January 18, 2016

www.usedcarnews.com

Incentives, Off-Lease Press on Used Car Prices $25,000

2011

2012

$3,200

$3,100

$2,791

2010

$2,500

$2,575

2009

$2,482

$2,722

2008

$2,525

$2,776

$3,000

$2,792

$3,500 $2,640

$34,200

$33,900

$33,390

$32,804

$32,104

$31,208

$31,052

$30,636

$29,572

$28,867

$30,000

$29,664

$35,000

$2,950

Incentives Rising Steadily

ATPs Continue to Rise

$2,000 $1,500

$20,000

$1,000 $15,000

$10,000

$500 $0 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2007

2013

2014

Source: Cox Automotive

2015

2016

2017

Source: Cox Automotive

Auction Volume Has Picked Up Since 2013

Retained Value on the Decline

1,900,000

68%

2015

66%

1,800,000

62%

Total Volume At Auction By Quarter

Retained Percentage of MSRP

64%

60%

58% 56% 54% 52%

2014

2013 1,600,000

1,500,000

1,400,000

50%

48%

1,700,000

CY 2013

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

CY 2014

Jun

CY 2015

Jul

Aug

(1 to 3 year old models) Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

1,300,000

Q1

Q2

Source: Cox Automotive

Q3

Q4

(2015 estimated)

Source: Cox Automotive

READING THE SIGNS: A series of charts presented by Cox Automotive show, clockwise from top left, that average transaction prices for used cars continue to rise, reaching $33,390 in 2015, but incentives are also rising steadily and so is the volume at auction, causing the forecast for retained value to decline at a steeper rate for 2015 models than for cars sold in the previous two years.

national Auto Show. Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst of automotive insights for Kelley Blue Book, said new-car incentives have been rising steadily and now average $3,000. That is a level last seen before the recession. Guiterrez said the average trans-

action prices of new vehicles are greater today, so the incentives are lower as a percentage of the sales price. “We are not seeing unhealthy behavior from the manufacturers, but the risk is there,” Guiterrez said. The residuals are greater for

some segments than others and so is the effect of increasing off-lease volumes, said Eric Ibara, Kelley’s director of residual consulting. Ibara said the projected residual values for trucks are 10 percentage points higher than cars because of higher retail demand.

Rush - Dated Material

DETROIT – Rising incentives and off-lease volumes are starting to place more and more pressure on residual values. Several experts from Cox Automotive detailed the current environment during a media event before the North American Inter-

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