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www.usedcarnews.com
Incentives, Off-Lease Press on Used Car Prices $25,000
2011
2012
$3,200
$3,100
$2,791
2010
$2,500
$2,575
2009
$2,482
$2,722
2008
$2,525
$2,776
$3,000
$2,792
$3,500 $2,640
$34,200
$33,900
$33,390
$32,804
$32,104
$31,208
$31,052
$30,636
$29,572
$28,867
$30,000
$29,664
$35,000
$2,950
Incentives Rising Steadily
ATPs Continue to Rise
$2,000 $1,500
$20,000
$1,000 $15,000
$10,000
$500 $0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2007
2013
2014
Source: Cox Automotive
2015
2016
2017
Source: Cox Automotive
Auction Volume Has Picked Up Since 2013
Retained Value on the Decline
1,900,000
68%
2015
66%
1,800,000
62%
Total Volume At Auction By Quarter
Retained Percentage of MSRP
64%
60%
58% 56% 54% 52%
2014
2013 1,600,000
1,500,000
1,400,000
50%
48%
1,700,000
CY 2013
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
CY 2014
Jun
CY 2015
Jul
Aug
(1 to 3 year old models) Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1,300,000
Q1
Q2
Source: Cox Automotive
Q3
Q4
(2015 estimated)
Source: Cox Automotive
READING THE SIGNS: A series of charts presented by Cox Automotive show, clockwise from top left, that average transaction prices for used cars continue to rise, reaching $33,390 in 2015, but incentives are also rising steadily and so is the volume at auction, causing the forecast for retained value to decline at a steeper rate for 2015 models than for cars sold in the previous two years.
national Auto Show. Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst of automotive insights for Kelley Blue Book, said new-car incentives have been rising steadily and now average $3,000. That is a level last seen before the recession. Guiterrez said the average trans-
action prices of new vehicles are greater today, so the incentives are lower as a percentage of the sales price. “We are not seeing unhealthy behavior from the manufacturers, but the risk is there,” Guiterrez said. The residuals are greater for
some segments than others and so is the effect of increasing off-lease volumes, said Eric Ibara, Kelley’s director of residual consulting. Ibara said the projected residual values for trucks are 10 percentage points higher than cars because of higher retail demand.
Rush - Dated Material
DETROIT – Rising incentives and off-lease volumes are starting to place more and more pressure on residual values. Several experts from Cox Automotive detailed the current environment during a media event before the North American Inter-
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