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Focus Area: Berners Bay Issues / Drivers of Change  Temperature and precipitation changes

 Cryosphere decay  Shifting freshwater hydroecology

 Shifting estuarine food webs productivity

 Successional changes & carbon re-allocation

 Dispersed human footprint


Five-Year Objectives •

Environmental Change. Understand how climate dynamics influence the spatial-temporal variability of key ecosystem indicators: ice, freshwater hydroecology, estuarine productivity, and floodplain forest

Societal Consequences. Understand the values of, and consequences for, the ecosystem-services associated with these indicators

Adaptive Capacity. Evaluate the capacities of resource-managers and nature-based tourism operators to perceive, project and respond to changes in these services.


Strategic Plan Activities: Personnel Strategic Goal Build research team 2 grads and 6 undergrads Deploy sensor array & collect sensor data Compile extant biophysical data and analyze change Compile, collect and measure social data Downscale models and build and model future change Liaise with communities and share findings

Anticipated progress

Actual progress

2 new hires, 2 faculty startups, All faculty support complete; postdoc deferred to year 2. 1 seed award, 1 postdoc 5 grads, 4 undergrad interns 2 grads and 6 undergrads Sensor array implemented and Implement sensor array expanded 50% Establish data portal; create Created portals & archive, hydro-climate and imagery compilation ongoing archive Derive economic valuation data sources and protocols

Identified valuation sources, conducted focus group surveys

Preliminary work

Deployed sensors, initiated hydro-downscaling

Identify community nodes and Complete partnerships


Team Organization & Capacity Building Icefield-to-Estuary Coupling 5 faculty 3 students Seed Grant: Estuarine Food Web Diversity New Hire: Ecosystem Ecologist

Ecosystem Processes 6 faculty 2 students

New Hire: Water Resources Env. Engineer

Integrative Modeling & Analysis 3 faculty 2 students Post Doc: Integrative Modeler Startup: Nat Resource Economist

Ecosystem Services 7 faculty 2 students Startup: Environmental Sociologist


Research Partnerships Research Partner

Funding

Vermont EPSCoR Alaska Climate Science Center

Analytical

NASA

Alaska Dept. of Fish and Game

City and Borough of Juneau

 

The Nature Conservancy

Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning

Marine Exchange of Alaska

Instrument Leveraging

USGS Alaska Science Center US Forest Service

Data Acquisition


Community Nodes Connection to Industry

• Explore creation of joint database of nature-based tourism statistics • Engagement through graduate student project in ecosystem service valuation • Integrating ecosystem service symposium into 2014 JEDC Innovation Summit

Connection to Resource Management

• Established joint Outreach Coordinator position with EPSCoR • Hosting EPSCoR undergraduate research fellowship program • Co-led Glacier Consequences Workshop, March ’13


Icefield-to-Estuary Instrumentation Array


Data Portals


Synthesizing Knowledge to Date 2. Climate-downscaling and hydroecological conditions (Hydrological Processes & EcoHydrology) Observed Stream Temperature

1. Climate projections & ecosystem consequences (to Climatic Change)

Air Temperature – Generalized Climate Model 25 Auke Cr. (0%) Peterson Cr. (0%) Fish Cr. (0%) Montana Cr. (2%) Cowee Cr. (13%) Lemon Cr. (29%) Eagle R. (48%) Herbert R. (49%) Mendenhall R. (63%)

Stream temperature (°C)

20

15

10

5

0

Pyare, Brinkman, Hood, Tallmon, Wipfli & 3 external EPSCoR collaborators

0

20

40

60

80

100

% Time exceeded

Hood, Pyare, Nagorski


Synthesizing Knowledge to Date + Novel Data Acquisition 3. Spatio-temporal shifts in salmon runtiming (to Biology Letters)

Tallmon, Pyare

4. Community Composition of Nearshore Fishes Estuaries with Variable Glacial Input

Beaudreau, Whitney& Bergstom


Novel Data Acquisition 5. Glacial meltwater influence on estuarine groundfish communities

6. Marine Mammal Abundance & Distribution in Berner's Bay


Other Data Streams/Initiatives:  Material transport (inverts, detritus) in glacial & non glacial watersheds        

(Wipfli) Biogeochemistry of glacial and non-glacial streams & links to estuarine phytoplankton productivity (Nagorski/ Schroth) Contribution of glacier runoff to freshwater fluxes at the basin-scale (Arendt/Young) Temperature-elevation gradients for climate downscaling (Fredrick) Post-glacial disturbance dynamics in terrestrial systems (Buma) Nature-Based Tourism Perceptions of Climate Change (Timm) Adaptive Capacity of Natural Resource Management (Wright) Marginal Changes in the Ecosystem Service of Glaciers (Vander Naald) Climate Change Perception of Institutional Representatives (Powell)


Socio-Economic Data Sources (Empirical) Icefield Heli-Tourism  Landing statistics from US Forest Service special use permits  Operator logs  Revenue data Marine Wildlife Tours  Marine exchange vessel tracking data  Operator logs  Revenue data Freshwater Sport and Personal Use Fisheries  Alaska Department of Fish and Game regional sportfish surveys (1977 - on)  Harvest statistics  Market pricing


Socio-Economic Data Sources (In Depth Surveys/Experimental) 



Initiated with climate-change perception survey to Juneau community Sub-focus on natural resource managers & nature-tourism operators



Sanjay pyare setc