Brian vander naald setc

SETC Social Science Update Brian Vander Naald

23 October

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

Things are changing

1. Cryosphere 2. Temperature and precipitation patterns 3. Estuarine food web productivity 4. Salmon run timing

Vander Naald

2/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

Natural Scientists

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Vander Naald

Understand how climate dynamics influence the spatial-temporal variability of key ecosystem indicators: ice, freshwater hydroecology, estuarine productivity, and floodplain forest

3/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

Social Scientists

1. Understand the values of, and consequences for, the ecosystem services associated with these indicators 2. Evaluate the capacities of resource-managers and nature-based tourism operators to perceive, project and respond to changes in these services.

Vander Naald

4/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

Experiment

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See how individuals collectively make decisions in the presence of uncertainty.

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Use game previously developed to measure collective behavior in forestry.

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Adapt to measure collect behavior in a fishery.

Vander Naald

5/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

Evening @ Egan on Friday

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Begin with a “fishery� and a group of participants.

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Collect sociodemographic information (income, education level, ethnicity, etc.)

Vander Naald

6/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

Evening @ Egan on Friday

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Begin with a “fishery� and a group of participants.

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Collect sociodemographic information (income, education level, ethnicity, etc.)

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Allow the group to harvest a certain number of fish each period with uncertain regeneration (randomized with toss of a 10-sided die).

Vander Naald

6/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

Information and Shocks

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After a few rounds, introduce information about “normal� variation in regeneration rates.

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Only give information to test groups. Control groups are those who do not receive information.

Vander Naald

7/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

Information and Shocks

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After a few rounds, introduce information about “normal” variation in regeneration rates.

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Only give information to test groups. Control groups are those who do not receive information.

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After a few more rounds, hit the fishery with an exogenous shock – such as regulation or bad fishery year – and see how groups react – especially interesting to see if those with information about normal variation react differently than those who don’t have that information.

Vander Naald

7/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

Outcomes

1. Control and treatment groups: allow us to test for how individuals use (or don’t use) information.

2. Normal bounds of variation: shows difference between perceived reality and actual reality.

3. Exogenous shock: how groups react to unforeseen events.

4. Information about how to tweak experiment in future.

Vander Naald

8/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

Value of Changes in ES

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Objective: Value welfare changes resulting from changes in ES.

9/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

Ecosystem Services

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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005: “the benefits people obtain from ecosystems�

10/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

System providing ES

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Vander Naald

Glacially-fed estuary

11/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

ES provided by the system

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ice

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salmon

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primary productivity

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ecosystem abundance

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alluvial forests

Vander Naald

12/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

Definitions

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Ecosystem Services (ES): “the benefits people obtain from ecosystems” (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005)

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Benefits from Environmental goods: “the economic benefit provided by an environmental good or service is the sum of what all member of society would be willing to pay for it.”

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Value (WTP): the contribution to an individual’s well-being from consumption of a good or service.

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⇒ Value of a change ES is the change in well-being of society associated with a change in ES.

Vander Naald

13/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

ES - definitional differences

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Boyd & Banzhaf 2007: “end-products of nature�

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Polasky & Segerson 2009: broad definition including both intermediate and final services.

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ES 6= Benefits because other human-made goods must be used to extract benefit from ES. Under this definition, recreation is not an ES.

ES = Benefits because supporting services are like infrastructure used to combine inputs into intermediate and final goods.

Under this definition, recreation is an ES.

14/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

Measuring Value

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Vander Naald

Question: How does one measure the value of an ES when no direct market exists?

15/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

Measuring Value

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Question: How does one measure the value of an ES when no direct market exists?

Answer: 1. Survey 2. Related good for which a market exists

Vander Naald

15/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

Measuring Value

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Question: How does one measure the value of an ES when no direct market exists?

Answer: 1. Survey 2. Related good for which a market exists

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Vander Naald

ES: Ice field recreation

15/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

Measuring Value

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Question: How does one measure the value of an ES when no direct market exists?

Answer: 1. Survey 2. Related good for which a market exists

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ES: Ice field recreation

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Market: helicopter transportation to ice field

Vander Naald

15/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

Helicopter transportation

Vander Naald

16/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

Helicopter transportation Possible sources of data: I

Cryosphere: I I I

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USFS I I

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locations and spatial boundaries of landing zones # permits

Helicopter operators: I I

Vander Naald

annual mass/balance of glaciers regional estimates over longer time periods Satellite imagery (% of land mass covered in glacier)

Operator logs Revenue data

17/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

Helicopter operators

Outfits & Activities: I

Coastal - dog sled tours

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Era - dog sled tours

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North Star - hiking

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Tempsco - hiking

Major determinants of where they land: I

Snow cover on ice field

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Ice melt caused by warm summers

Vander Naald

18/19

Introduction

Adaptive Capacity

ES & Value

Next...

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Run experiments

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Obtain data

Vander Naald

19/19