A Method To Create A Local LCS Scenario The method is based on the idea of “back casting” to create a local low carbon society scenario.
(1) Setting the framework Aspects included in a LCS scenario framework are: the target area, base year, environmental targets and a number of scenarios. The base year is compared with the target year. In Iskandar Malaysia, the target year of GHG emission reduction is 2025. (2) Description of socio-economic assumptions Qualitative future image of lifestyle, economy, industry, land use, transportation and other key aspects is described based on synthesis of official planning documents. (3) Quantification of socio-economic assumptions Values of exogenous variables and parameters are set in order to estimate the future image of (2) above. Based on these values, the ExSS tool computes various socioeconomic indices of the target year. (4) Collection of low-carbon measures Countermeasures for reducing GHG emissions which are envisioned to be available in the target year are identified. Technical data for estimating the countermeasures’ effects on GHG emission reduction are collected. (5) Setting introduction of measures in target year Technological parameters related to energy efficiency are defined. Appropriate criteria for the introduction of countermeasures are outlined. (6) Estimation of GHG emissions in the target year GHG emissions are computed based on the socio-economic indices and assumptions that underline the introduction of countermeasures.
Figure 2. Procedure to create a local LCS scenario Source: Low-carbon Sustainable Iskandar Malaysia brochure October 2010
(7) Confirming measures set and suggestion of policy recommendations. Policy set to introduce the measures defined is recommended. Suitability of the policy should be in accordance with the context of the target area towards achieving the highest reduction potential of countermeasures.
Quantitative Estimation Tool: Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) The next step is to quantify the socio -economic assumptions (3) in the district by using a quantitative estimation tool. Figure 3 shows an overview of the Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) that is used to compute and estimate CO2 emission from energy consumption. It consists of seven input parameters (modules), a set of exogenous variables and variables between modules. Fixed population data are used in this tool but when it is applied to a smaller region (district, city, etc.), it is concerned that people migrate more easily and population will be determined by demand external to the region (export), labour participation ratio, demographic composition and relationship of commuting with areas outside the region. An “export-based” input-output approach is used to determine the output of industries. Basic industries are industries that produce export goods and these industries will generate non-basic industries (services, etc.) through demands on intermediate input and worker’s consumption in the industrial sector. Labour demand of production processes and
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The project of Development of Low Carbon Society Scenarios for Asian Regions (2011-2016) under the Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS) framework aims to develop a methodology for creating Low Carbon Society (LCS) scenarios that will lead to implementable LCS policies that are appropriate for Malaysia, and subsequently transmittable to other Asian countries. A key outcome of the project has been the Iskandar Malaysia Low Carbon Society Blueprint (IMLCSBP) 2025 that was launched at UNFCCC’s COP 18, Doha, in November 2012. The IMLCSBP 2025 outlines a total of 281 programs for implementation in IM that are projected to result in a 58% reduction in GHG emission intensity in terms of GDP by 2025 compared to 2005 levels and a 41% reduction in absolute emission compared with the business as usual (BaU) scenario in 2025. Figure 3. Quantitative Estimation Tool: Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) Source: Low-carbon Sustainable Iskandar Malaysia brochure October 2010
population living in the target area is computed through a labour participation ratio. Passenger transport demand is estimated from population and freight transport demand from industrial output. Energy demand by fuels in each sector is determined by three parameters which are energy service demand per driving force, energy efficiency and fuel share. The process of distributing measures will eventually reduce these parameters, and so GHG emissions.
We welcome feedback and suggestions. Please do contact us: UTM-Low Carbon Asia Research Centre Room 02-04-01, Block B-12, Faculty of Built Environment, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Johor Bahru, Malaysia. T +607-555 7539 F +607-553 8003 E lowcarbonsociety2011@yahoo.com W www.utm.my/satreps-lcs @2014 UTM-Low Carbon Asia Research Centre Graphic Design © Akmal Hakim
Towards effective implementation of the LCS programs in IM, which covers four local authority (LA) jurisdictions and part of a fifth LA jurisdiction, a set of five LA-specific LCS blueprints are currently being prepared. This brochure presents a preliminary summary of the LCS Blueprint for the Johor Bahru City Council (Majlis Bandaraya Johor Bahru, MBJB).