14 Channing St NW #2, Washington, DC | $1,099,500
Condo Report A C O M P R E H E N S I V E A N A LY S I S O F T H E R E S I D E N T I A L R E A L E S TAT E M A R K E T I N T H E W A S H I N G T O N M E T R O P O L I TA N A R E A . T H I R D Q U A R T E R , 2 0 1 8
2125 14th St NW #815 U Street Corridor | $1,275,000
CONDO MARKET OVERVIEW The market for condominiums continues to increase or remain steady across most submarkets in the Washington area. The third quarter of 2018 brought a total of 134 new condominium contract sales in the District, and 525 units sold in the 12-month period ending September 2018—an increase of 8% from the previous year. The Capitol Hill/ Riverfront/SW, Central, and NoMa/H Street submarkets once again led the District in sales activity in the last 12 months. In the close-in suburbs of Northern Virginia, there was a 4% decrease in annual sales activity in Arlington. Alexandria had a sales increase of nearly 19% over the year; however, only two of Alexandria’s 44 new condominium sales over the last year took place in the third quarter of 2018. After a more than five-year absence, new condo sales activity returned to Tysons last quarter with 13 contract sales at Verse condos in the third quarter of 2018. In Bethesda, there were 14 contract sales in the third quarter and 61 sales for the year, a 79% increase over the prior year. Average effective same-store prices of new condominiums in the District was $775 per SF in the third quarter of 2018. This is up 1.3% from a year ago. Prices in District submarkets increased most in the Capitol Hill/Riverfront/SW submarket at 17.8% over the year. A decline was recorded in Bethesda while prices in Arlington increased 3.2%. There was once again insufficient data for a same-store comparison in Alexandria and Tysons this quarter. A total of 954 condominium units are currently marketing or under construction in the District, led by the Capitol Hill/ Riverfront/SW and NoMa/H Street submarkets. In the closein suburbs of Northern Virginia, there are 507 units actively marketing or under construction and 49 units in Bethesda.
Over 40% of the 1,832 units in the District’s 36-month development pipeline are located in the NoMa/H Street and Columbia Heights/Shaw submarkets. Northern Virginia has 465 units planned over the next 36 months while Bethesda has 180 units planned. The inventory-to-sales ratio (months of supply at current rates of sale) in the District is currently 10.1 months but varies greatly by submarket. Months of supply ranges from zero months in the Northeast submarket to 19.2 months in the Upper Northwest submarket. The close-in suburban submarkets range from 4.9 months in Alexandria to 22.3 months in Tysons. All Washington area submarkets are currently considered to be supply-constrained. We have found over the years that a healthy ratio is between 24 and 30 months of supply—in that range, prices tend to move up gradually. Resale activity for condominiums increased slightly over the past year in most of the Washington area submarkets with the exception of Bethesda, Tysons, Northeast, and Upper Northwest. The average number of days on the market for District condos was 31 days during the third quarter, an increase from last quarter’s average of 25 days, which was expected due to the typically slow selling season towards the end of the summer. Market conditions were tightest in Upper Georgia Avenue at an average of 20 days while the average condo took 63 days to sell in River East. Average days on the market ranged in the close-in suburbs from 27 days in Arlington to 54 days in Bethesda.
NEW CONDO UNITS Average Sale Price (per unit), Third Quarter 2018
Upper Northwest
$4,160,000
Upper Georgia Avenue
$583,675
Columbia Heights/ Shaw
$502,537
Central
$1,290,882
Capitol Hill/ Riverfront/ SW
$643,090
NoMa/ H Street
$584,288
River East
$405,000
Arlington
$557,330
Alexandria
$2,240,021
Tysons
$844,000
Bethesda
$1,358,776
1155 23rd Street NW #PH3J West End | $ 2,250,000
5521 3rd Street NW, #1 Petworth | $674,999
THE PIPELINE New Condo Units Currently Under Construction or Being Actively Marketed
Planned Condo Units, Over The Next 36 Months
467
419 358 292
270
232
86
Bethesda
River East
NoMa/ H Street
Capitol Hill/ Riverfront/ SW
Central
Columbia Heights/ Shaw
Upper Georgia Avenue
Upper Northwest
Bethesda
Tysons
Alexandria
Arlington
72
40
4 River East
Northeast
NoMa/ H Street
Capitol Hill/ Riverfront/ SW
Central
Columbia Heights/ Shaw
0 Upper Georgia Avenue
Upper Northwest
16
49
Northeast
79 32
180
161
Tysons
172
120 110
195
Alexandria
191
Arlington
237
205
Georgetown Brokerage 1206 30th Street NW Washington, DC 20007 Downtown Brokerage 1515 14th Street NW Washington, DC 20005
1506 14th Street NW Washington, DC 20005 ttrsir.com | +1 202 234 3344
McLean Brokerage 6723 Whittier Avenue McLean, VA 22101 Alexandria Brokerage 400 S Washington Street Alexandria, VA 22314 Arlington Brokerage 2300 Clarendon Blvd Arlington, VA 22201 Chevy Chase Brokerage 5454 Wisconsin Avenue Chevy Chase, MD 20815 Annapolis Brokerage 209 Main Street Annapolis, MD 21401
Spotlight: Arlington
1811 14th St N #C304 Arlington | $718,000
Arlington is one of Northern Virginia’s primary submarkets for new development. Due to its close proximity to the District, Arlington offers various transportation amenities including several Metro stations as well as Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport. The recent announcement that Amazon will locate a portion of its HQ2 in Crystal City further reinforces the appeal of the region. Arlington’s central location, access to transit, and growing retail sector continue to attract an influx of new residents and businesses, and we predict that momentum will only strengthen in the years ahead. Well positioned to benefit from this momentum is NVR Inc.’s new mid-rise condominium building under construction in Ballston that will consist of 72 market rate units and four affordable units. The project will replace the former First Baptist Church of Ballston. The site is about just blocks from the Ballston Metro station. There are also 237 units actively marketing or under construction in Arlington, which is about half of the close-in Northern Virginia total and much higher than the five-year annual average of 129. The new condominium unit contract volume over the past year for Arlington was 72 units and prices rose 3.2% over the year. Arlington
had an average monthly sales pace of 2.4 units, slightly below the Northern Virginia average of 2.6 units per month. The 18.5 months of new condominium supply is below the five-year average of 22.8 months, but well above what was seen at this time last year. Resale volume has experienced growth as well with over 1,700 condominium resales occurring over the past 12 months. The average days on the market for resales this quarter was 27 days, down 10 days from the fiveyear annual average. As of the end of the third quarter of 2018, the Washington metro area’s new condo market continues along its measured growth cycle with no signs of a slowdown (or runaway growth) on the immediate horizon. The recent announcement by Amazon as well as continued overall interest in locations with strong transportation and amenities indicates Arlington is ideally positioned to experience further strengthening and commensurate pressure on pricing well into the year ahead. With our newly expanded office located at 2300 Clarendon Boulevard in the heart of Arlington, TTR Sotheby’s International Realty is ideally positioned to assist you, regardless of whether you are buying, selling or simply exploring the market.
Source: Delta associates. Data deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.