TOTAL LICENSING By Martin Brochstein SVP Industry Relations and Information Licensing International www.licensinginternational. org
Questions for 2021 What will 2021 bring? As this is written, as the pandemic ebbs and flows depending on where in the world you are, the introduction of vaccines puts the light at the end of the proverbial tunnel within sight.
Is there an impending experience explosion?
Either way, the 2021 Model (as we’re calling it, temporarily at least) will have a huge impact on licensees in particular. Especially since it’s unclear whether the amount and cadence of promotional activity around streaming releases will match that which has traditionally accompanied theatrical debuts.
Might history be a guide?
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For Licensing International, 2021 is a year of continuing to provide up-to-date information, tools and perspectives to help you build your business.
The shape of the licensing industry will depend in large part (the course of the pandemic aside) on answers to these questions: What role will ecommerce play?
2020 was a banner year for e-commerce, with major retailers reporting huge bumps in their online businesses, and many online specialists thriving.
A lot of this was based on the shutdown on physical retail. What shoppers will do once they have a choice again? To put things in context, ecommerce’s share of the retail sales pie averaged around 17.3% in 2020.
One indicator: Brand owners, manufacturers, agents and others from around the world who responded to Licensing International’s annual endof-year flash survey say they expect the percentage of business they do via eCommerce will increase this year to an average of 36.9% of their sales from 30.5% in 2020. What will film and entertainment distribution look like once cinemas reopen?
In December, Warner Bros. and Disney both announced that they would release large chunks of their content slate for streaming and in theater simultaneously.
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It’s unclear whether this is simply a stop-gap measure to get through the pandemic or a fundamental, permanent shift in the distribution model.
The end of WWI and the Spanish flu pandemic ushered in the Roaring Twenties…
What’s the “holiday season”?
Has the holiday retail calendar been permanently changed?
Last year, Amazon once again shifted the retail landscape, this time with its decision to push Prime Day to October. As dozens of other retailers jumped on the bandwagon to host their own competing sales, the result was an expanded holiday shopping window, kicking off more than a month before the traditional start – Black Friday.There are broad implications for supply chain, promotional calendars, and other aspects of getting goods to market. Is there an impending experience explosion?
After nearly a year mostly without masses of people gathering for sporting events, concerts, live shows, cinemas and theme parks, they’re chomping at the bit to get back out in the world. Whether and when they’ll feel safe enough to do so is another question. And those events drive product sales. Might history be a guide? The end of WWI and the Spanish flu pandemic ushered in the Roaring Twenties… How important will the mask category continue to be?
When face masks burst on the scene last spring, it wasn’t clear whether they would be a short-term sales opportunity or a permanent part of fashion wardrobes. Yet since July, with the promise of a vaccine on the horizon and consumers having already purchased baskets full of masks, sales have been declining. So will they be a staple, or were they just a temporary supernova? How will licensing agreements shift as business “normalizes”? After a year like no other, with businesses shutting down, shipping delays and retail malaise, newly revised licensing contracts will come into play this year. In 2020, some contracts were rewritten to reduce minimum guarantees and extend terms to allow licensees to recoup their losses. And while several licensors initially resisted changing contract terms at the start of the pandemic, those once ironclad agreements proved malleable as companies were forced to adapt to the new normal. Whether that spirit of cooperation and collegiality will continue, will be something to watch as the year advances.
