HurricanePrepGuide
(LUISSANTANA|Times,2024)
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HurricaneHelene HurricaneHelene HurricaneMilton
HurricaneMilton
2025 HurricanePrepGuide
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BYMEAGHANHABUDA TimesStaffWriter
Afterahistorichurricaneseasoninwhichthe TampaBay areafaceditsworst storms inacentury, this year could bringanotherbusysixmonthsoftropicalweather. Now’sthetimetomakesure you’rereceivingthelatest information fromthe TampaBayTimes onall your mobileanddesktopdevices.
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Residents walkontheOldsmarPierahead of thearrival of HurricaneHelene. (JEFFEREEWOO|Times,2024)
2025 HurricanePrepGuide
BYMICHAELAMULLIGAN TimesStaffWriter
Timehasmarchedonsincethelast hurricaneseason,andresidents across TampaBayare stillreckoning withthedestructionfromlastyear’smajor storms.
Butanewhurricaneseasonhasarrived, andacrosstheboard, experts expectittobe abovenormal.
Acoupleof keyingredientsaredrivingthe outlooks—namely warmsea-surface temperaturesinareaswherehurricanesform, andweatherconditionsthatlikelywon’t be strongenoughtotampdown storms.
“Everythingisinplaceforanabove-averageseason,”said KenGraham,thedirector ofthe National WeatherService,duringthe unveilingofthe NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration’s hurricaneoutlook
“Whatdowealwayssay? It onlytakes one.”
Here’s alook at theforecastsso far, and theingredientsbehindthem.
Theoutlooks,brokendown
In late May, the NationalOceanicand AtmosphericAdministrationreleasedits annualpreseasonforecast,whichislargely
Here’salookatthe 2025hurricaneseason forecastssofar
Hurricaneexpertsagree:Thisyear is likely tobeanabove-normalseason.
considered the gold standard. Federalforecasterssaidthey expecta60%chanceof above-normalactivity.
Theagencysaiditisanticipatingupto13 to19named storms,ofwhichsixto10could becomehurricanesandthreeto fivecould rampupintomajorhurricanesofCategory 3orhigher.
A typical hurricaneseasonconsists of 14 named storms,sevenhurricanesandthree majorhurricanes,accordingtotheagency.
The2025federaloutlookalignswithother early-seasonforecastsreleasedthisspring.
ColoradoState University, aschool renownedforitshurricaneresearch,said inAprilitalso expects“above-normal”trop-
icalactivitythisyear. Thesameweek,the Sarasota-based ClimateAdaptationCenter releasedasimilaroutlook.
Universityresearcherssaidthey expect 17 named storms,ofwhichninewill becomehurricanesandfourwillbecome majorhurricanes.
ColoradoStatewillupdateitsoutlook againlaterin June. Hurricane seasonruns from June1to Nov. 30.
“Forecastingthefutureishard,whether you’reforecastingweather,whetheryou’re forecastingsporting events,political races, allthat stuff,”Philip Klotzbach,ameteorologist at theuniversity, saidinApril.
“Butwealso findthatyoucanseealot
bylooking,basicallyby goingbackinto thepast,”hesaid. “Therearecluesinthe atmosphereandoceansystemthatcan tipusoffastowhetherthe currenthurricaneseasonis goingtohaveabove-or below-normalactivity.”
What’sbehindtheforecasts?
The NationalOceanicandAtmospheric Administrationsaiditsforecastwasinfluenced by several factors, includingthe globe’sneutralconditions—whichmeans theplanetis experiencingneithera La Niña noranElNiño—andwarmer-than-average oceantemperatures.
Accordingtoa May outlook,the Climate PredictionCenteranticipatestheglobewill remaininaneutralphaseduringthesummer,withagreaterthan50%chanceofit persisting throughAugust,Septemberand October—peakhurricaneseason.
Duringthesametimeframe, La Niña, which typicallyleadsthewayformorehurricanes,hasalittlemorethana30%chance oftakingover.
“Wedoknowthatduringneutral events, wehaveabout2½tothreemorenamed stormsthanyouwouldduringElNiño
See FORECAST,6X
FORECAST continuedfrom4X
events,sowe’reallowingforthat,” Matthew Rosencrans,aresearcherwhohelpeddevelop the NationalOceanicandAtmospheric Administration’s forecast,saidin May.
Rosencranssaidneutralconditionsare adrivingfactorbehindtheabove-normal forecast. Theneutralphasewon‘tbeenough toimpedethefavorable stormconditionsin thewarmAtlantic.
In mid-May,seasurfacetemperatures andoceanheat contentwereslightlyabove average in areaswhere hurricanes form, accordingtoBrian McNoldy,a Universityof Miamiresearcher.
Warmwatersprovidefuelfor storms. Theoceanheatcontent“tellsusmore aboutthe availableenergyintheupperlayers oftheocean,notjustthesurface,” McNoldy saidinanemailtothe TampaBayTimes.
In apostonX in May, Ben Noll, a meteorologistwhowritesfor The Washington Post,saidthatwhiletemperaturesinparts oftheAtlanticarecoolerthantheywere aroundthesametimelastyear,areaslike theCaribbeanSeaandtheGulfof Mexico werejustashot,ifnothotter.
Therecordtemperaturesin2024 ledto themost aggressiveearly-seasonprediction inthe NationalOceanicandAtmospheric Administration’sforecasthistory.
Wherecouldthestormsgo?
Members of the Hillsborough CountySheriff’s Officeassist a residentin a communitythat wasinundated bythehistoric flooding of the AlafiaRiver afterHurricane Milton.Experts expect2025 tobeanother above-average hurricane season.
wasa34%chance.
University researchersusedfederal data frompasthurricanetrackstocalculatethe possibility of stormsfallingwithin50 miles of statesalongtheEastandGulfcoaststhis season.
In allinstances,Floridahadthehighest probabilityofany state.
Thereisa92%chanceofanamed storm fallingwithin 50 milesofFlorida, a 65% chanceof ahurricane doingso,anda 35% chanceofamajorhurricanelandingwithin thatdistance.
Forecastreliability
Last yearwasthe National Hurricane Center’s mostaccurateforecastingseason ever,whichincluded Heleneand Milton, twoof TampaBay’smostdevastating storms inrecenthistory.
Overthelast twodecades,forecasterrors haveshrunkbyupto75%,accordingto a hurricanecenterreportgradingits2024 performance.
Mass firingsandearlyretirementshave chipped away at federalweatheragencies sincethe startof2025. They havecaused weather expertstoquestionifthesame high standardofhurricaneforecastingwill remainthisyear.
Someweatherservice stationsacross thecountrywerewithoutfullyoperational staffin May. In TampaBay, thelocal weatherservicewasdownby twometeorologists,faringbetterthanother stations acrossthecountry.
In April,universityresearcherssaidthere wasa51%chance— nearlya coin toss thatamajorhurricanewouldmakelandfall somewherealongthe U.S.coastthisseason. Forcomparison,that number was62% last season.
Zoomingin closer, Colorado State said the U.S.EastCoast,includingtheFlorida peninsula,hasa26%chanceof experiencingamajorhurricane,up from the typical 21%chance. Last year, forecasterssaidthere
Graham,theweatherservicedirector, saidhedidnotanticipatethat cutstothe agencieswouldimpacthurricaneforecastingthisyearcomparedtopreviousyears.
“I’m going to end this with,we’reready, we’rereadyforthis,”Grahamsaid.“Ineed everyoneinthecountrytobereadyaswell.”
ContactMichaela Mulliganat mmulligan@tampabay.com Follow@Michaela_Mull.
(LUISSANTANA|Times(2024)
2025 HurricanePrepGuide
Localresourcedirectory
HillsboroughCounty
HillsboroughCountyemergencyinformation: HCFLGov.net/StaySafe Phone:813-272-5900
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PinellasCountyemergencyinformation,including lookingup yourevacuation zone,signingup forAlert Pinellas,downloadingthe ReadyPinellasapp,finding shelteroptionsandunderstanding stormsurge: disaster.pinellas.gov
To register foraspecial needsshelter: pinellas.gov/specialneeds. Orcall727-464-3800to updateorrequestaform. To preparepets: pinellas.gov/petprep
To lookup yourfloodrisk: floodmaps.pinellas.gov
PinellasCountyinformationline:727-464-3000, TDD727-464-4062
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DukeEnergy:outagemap. duke-energy.com
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WithlacoocheeRiver
ElectricCooperative: withlacoochee.outagemap.coop
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FederalAlliance forSafe Homes:flash.org
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FloridaDivision of EmergencyManagement: floridadisaster.org
FloridaSpecialNeeds Registry:bit.ly/3N8DHnY InsuranceInstitute for Business&HomeSafety: disastersafety.org
MySafeFlorida.org: mysafeflorida.org
NationalHurricaneCenter storm tracker:nhc.noaa.gov
TampaBayRegionalPlanning Council:tampabayprepares.org
Floodlinks
FederalEmergencyManagementAgencyflood maps:bit.ly/3w2TYVN
FirstStreet Foundation’s Flood Factor: floodfactor.com
FloridaDivision of EmergencyManagement: floridadisaster.org/ knowyourzone
PinellasCountyhomebuyer specialfloodhazardareas information:bit.ly/3EZxZBU NationalFloodInsurance Program:floodsmart.gov
Publicsafetyupdates HillsboroughCounty Sheriff’sOffice: facebook.com/HCSOSheriff, x.com/HCSOSheriff Tampa PoliceDepartment: facebook.com/TampaPD, x.com/TampaPD PinellasCountySheriff’s Office:facebook.com/ pinellassheriff, x.com/SheriffPinellas St. Petersburg Police Department: facebook.com/StPetePD, x.com/StPetePD
PascoCountySheriff’s Office: facebook.com/pascosheriff, x.com/PascoSheriff HernandoCountySheriff’s Office:facebook.com/ HernandoSheriff, x.com/HernandoSheriff FloridaDepartment of Transportation:facebook. com/MyFDOTTampa, x.com/MyFDOT_Tampa Liveroadconditions:fl511.com
Live trafficcameras: tinyurl.com/FDOTCameras
2025 HurricanePrepGuide
BYSHREYAVUTTALURUANDJACKPRATOR
TimesStaffWriters
Sincethe turnofthe century, major hurricaneshittingthe U.S.havehad one keyfeatureincommon.
Location.
TheGulfof Mexicocoastlinetransformed intoabullseyeformajor storms,whichhave takenaimfromCorpus Christi, Texas,to Marco Islandanddestroyedcommunities intheirwake.Eighteenhurricanesreaching Category3 strengthorhigherhavemade landfallalongthecontinental U.S.since 1999.
AllbutoneslammedintotheGulfCoast.
Thepatternis evenmore starksince2017: All10majorhurricanesthathavemade landfallinthe U.S. struckcommunities alongtheGulf—includingsixinFlorida.
Miltonand Helene,occurringnot even twoweeksapart,werethelatestinthe streakthat’sleft Floridianscollectivelywonderingwhy.
Hurricane expertssay stormsaregrowing moreintense—andmorequickly—largely becauseofwarmingseas. Tropical cyclones transformheatfromtheoceansurfaceinto themovementofwinds,sowarmerwaters allow stormstospinfaster.
MorehurricanesareslammingtheGulfCoast.
Is thisthe newnormal?
MiltonandHelenearethe latestinaneight-yearstreak. Record-hotwaterscouldbeplayingapart.
The TampaBayTimesreviewednearly 600 stormtracksandcorrespondingsea surfacetemperaturesintheAtlanticOcean basinoverthelast fourdecades.Reportersreliedonmethods used by hurricane researcherstocompare stormsthatunderwent rapidintensification—whichoccurs whenmaximumwindspeedsincreaseby35 mphinaday—toonesthatdidn’t.
The analysis showed that warmer ocean temperaturesincreasethechancesof stronger stormsdevelopingby50%. Most tropical cyclonesthat have rapidlyintensified overthepast40yearshaveencountered abnormallywarmwater,theTimesfound.
In theGulf,thatphenomenon meanshurricanescaneasilybecomesupercharged.
“Anythingthat getslooseintheGulfis goingtobasicallyhavedoublethedamage potentialitusedto,comparedto100years ago,”said Jeff Masters,ahurricanescientistformerlywiththe NationalOceanicand AtmosphericAdministration.
About3outof every4majorhurricanes toformintheAtlanticortheGulfof Mexico havetraveledoverrecord-hotwaters. Half ofallhurricanestohittheGulfCoastover thepast25yearswereclassifiedasmajor storms at landfall.
Weatherpatternshavealso steered storms
towardtheGulfinrecentyears,butscientists areunsurewhetherthoseforcesarenatural, fueledbyclimatechangeoramixofboth. Future stormscould wreak evenmore havoc.
Sea-levelriseis expectedtocompound stormsurge,inundatingcommunitiesfurtherinland. Increasing rainfall—bothfrom routine thunderstorms andtropicalsystems—willsaturatetheground,creatingan environmentripeforflashflooding.
Already,Gulf stormshavebeendevastating, rackinguphundredsofbillionsofdollarsindamageandhundredsofliveslost.
In Floridaalone, from Fort Myers Beach toSteinhatchee,floodedhomesremain unlivableafter Miltonand Helenebore theirone-twopunch. The stormsfollowed Hurricane Idalia,which ravagedtheBig Bendin2023witha10-foot stormsurge. In the five-yearspanbeforethat, Ian, Michael and Irmaforevertransformed stretchesof theGulf’s coastlineandleft dozensdead.
Thevery geographyoftheGulfputscommunitiesalongitsshore at increased risk from strengthening storms.
A hurricane formingin the Atlantic or Caribbeanhasmore openwater to
SeeNORMAL,12X
treadand fizzleoutover. Butonce storms entertheGulf’s narrowmouth,theyhave nowhereto go butland.
Theonlyhopeisthatsomehowthey’ll weaken.
Whyarestormsrapidlyintensifying?
The Gulfiswarming at twicethe rateof allotherglobalseasandfueling stormslike neverbefore.
Anoceanheatwavethathasdecimated SouthFlorida’scoralreefsandpowered hyperactivehurricaneseasonsfor at least twosummersbearsmuchoftheblamefor rapidintensification.
“We’reinunchartedterritorywithocean temperatures,” saidSam Lillo,a hurricane expertandformerresearchassociatewith the NationalOceanicandAtmospheric Administration.
Theheatwavesarecharacterizedbyan oceanareahavingabnormallyhighsea-surfacetemperatures,hotterthan90%ofhistoricalreadingstaken at thesameplace. In the GulfandtheAtlantic,they’rearelativelynew phenomenon.Widespreadheatwavesspanninghundredsofmilesweren’t recordeduntil the’90s buthavebecomemorecommon.
Sincescientistsbeganmeasuringocean
heatwaves,2outof every3 rapidlyintensifying stormswentthroughoneofthe hotspots,accordingtotheTimesanalysisof stormpathsandwatertemperature mapsfromthe NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration.
The numbers over thelastdecade are evenmoredramatic:Allbut two storms that rapidlyintensifiedtraveledoverthe unusuallywarmwaters.
In 2017, Hurricane Harvey strengthened fromatropicaldepressionintoaCategory 4 hurricanejust twodaysbeforeit struckthe Texascoast. Themonster stormleft thousandsneedingrescuefromtherisingfloodwatersin Houston.
In 2022, Hurricane Ian’swindspeedsnearly doubled withinroughly 22 hours before the stormtransformedintoapowerfulhurricaneandmadelandfalldayslaterinSouthwestFlorida. TheCategory4 stormbecame thecostliesthurricanein statehistory.
Last year, Hurricane Milton’s winds increasedbya staggering90mphasit crossedtheGulf’s blisteringwatersjust northwestofthe Yucatan Peninsula. It leapedfromatropical stormtoaCategory 5 hurricaneinjust 24 hours.
Acrossallthetropicalsystemsthatthe Timesanalyzed,the averageoceantemperaturewasapproximately2degrees Fahrenheit higherinplaceswhere stormsunderwent
Overthelastquarter-century,rapidintensification
More storms have rapidly intensified in the Gulf of Mexico’s waters, whichhave undergone significant warming. The mapbelow shows the number of storms that rapidly intensifiedata given locationacross the Atlantic basin. SeeNORMAL,13X
MapgeneratedusingtheTropycalPythonpackage.StormtracksfromNOAA’sInternationalBest TrackArchiveforClimateStewardship,from1982to2024.
rapidintensificationthaninareaswhere theydidn’t.Scientistshavefoundthat waters even1degreeabove averagecoulddo significantharmtomarinelife—likecoral bleaching.
NearlyhalfofallAtlanticCategory 5 stormsrecordedoverthelast40years spawnedinthelastdecade. Most weakened beforemakinglandfall,but everyoneof themunderwenta rapidintensification cycle.
Fouroutof every5 stormsthatreached Category5intensityencounteredrecordhotwaters.
“It’squitepossiblewe’veenteredanew eraofincreasedhurricaneactivityinthe Gulfof Mexico,”said Masters,thehurricane scientist. “Andcertainly,wehavereached a neweraofactivityformoreintense storms.”
Expertssaythatthis typeof strengtheningisn’t anewphenomenon.Butifwaters continueto getwarmer, thechanceof a stormcrossingaheatwaveduringitslifetimeincreases.
“It’samatterofshiftingthewindowsof opportunityandwideningthem,”Lillosaid.
Whileoceantemperaturesareaprimary sourceofhurricanefuel,it’s notclearwhethertheycausemorehurricanes—onlythat theymakepowerful stormsmorelikely.
Whyare storms targetingthe GulfCoast?
Aflurryofdeadly anddamaginghurricanesduring themid-2000smadeGulf stormslike Katrinaand Charleyhouseholdnames.
Duringthosesummers,watertemperatureswereclosetonormal,andthe string of stormsdidn’t lastaslong.
Angrytropicscalmedforaboutadecade, until2017,when Harvey and Irmahitthe GulfCoastwithferociousintensity. That kickedoffaneight-year streakofmajorGulf landfalls—anunprecedentedfrequency.
Thelastsimilarperiodwasbetween1945 and1950,when fivemajorhurricaneshit SouthFlorida.
“That’stheonlycomparablebeatingthat we’vetakeninhistory,” Masterssaid. “And thatwasn’t nearlyassevereaswhatwe enduredthelasteightyears.”
Hurricane expertshavetheoriesabout whyrecentlandfallshave clusteredalong theGulf.
Researchhaslinkedmajorweatherpatternstotropicalactivity, which explains why hurricanes make landfall more often
Category3 Category4 Category5
GulfCoasthurricanes
Overthelast25years,18hurricanesmadelandfallinthecontinental UnitedStatesasmajorstormsafterformingintheGulfofMexicoor AtlanticOcean.OnlyHurricaneJeanne—aCategory3storm—hit theeastcoastofFlorida.
Trackdata for2024ispreliminary.OnlyhurricanesthatmadelandfallasaCategory 3 orstrongerontheSaffir-SimpsonHurricaneWindScalewereincluded.
Source:InternationalBest TrackArchive forClimateStewardship Version4r01
duringsomeseasons,climatologistssay.
For example,theElNiño-SouthernOscillationisanaturalclimatepatternthatinfluenceswatertemperatureandairpressure overthe tropical Pacific Ocean. It has three phasesthatshiftirregularly every twoto sevenyears—ElNiño, La Niñaandaneutralphasetransitioningbetweenthe two.
ElNiño cycles typicallybringwarmer watersbutdamper stormformationand intensification.A La Niñahastheopposite effectandisassociatedwithlessdry
airandlesswindsheartoteardownhurricane strength.
ElNiñoand La Niñapatternsalsoinfluencewindflowsthatcontrolhurricanepaths acrosstheAtlantic. Thejet stream,onesuch windpattern,shiftsnorthduringa La Niña and steershurricanestoward U.S.landfall. To thesurpriseofseveralscientists,the Atlanticbasinhassufferedunderfrequent andlengthy La Niña cyclesinrecentyears —allbut twoofthelastsevenseasons.
Katrina
Helene Milton Jeanne Gulf of Mexico
Ocean SeeNORMAL,14X
NORMAL continuedfrom13X
That’s createdmorefavorablehurricaneconditionsand windsthatpushmore stormstowardtheGulf.
AdamSobel,aclimatologistwithColumbia University, predictedeightyearsago thatElNiñophases,whicharecorrelated withmilderhurricaneseasons,woulddominatethenextdecade.
Whentheoppositehappened,Sobeland otherresearcherscouldn’t explainwhy.
“We’reinaperiodnowofdeepuncertainty,”hesaid.
It’s toosoontopintheunexpectedshift onawarmingworld.Eightyearsisnot enoughtimetodraw definitiveconclusions, accordingtoscientists.Butclimatechange willmimicthe effectsof strong La Niña phasesandcouldmakeGulflandfallsmore likely,saidLillo,theformerresearchassociatewiththe NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration.
“Wedon’t knowhowhurricanetracksare goingtochangewithachangingclimate,” Masterssaid. “Justthattheywill.”
Predictingwherea stormwillhit even daysbeforelandfallishardenoughforforecasters,soanticipatinglandfallpatterns overaseasonordecadeisnearlyimpossible, expertssaid.
It’s unclearhowlongtheGulf streak couldcontinue,but Masterssaidheisn’t convinced it signals a “new normal.” It wasn’t too long ago that Florida went a decadewithoutasinglehurricane strike, from2006to2015,hesaid.
TheGulfmaynotremainamagnet.But another La Niña cyclecouldbeginduring thisyear’s hurricaneseason.
Howwillawarmingclimateaffectthe intensityofhurricanes?
Hurricanesare largelyconsidered random events,but expertsareconfidentthat tropical cycloneswillbecomemoreintense andwetterinawarmerworld.
Climatechangeisalreadymakingwater —thebiggest killerduringtropicalsystems —moredeadly,saidDavid Keelings,a UniversityofFloridaprofessorwhoresearches climate extremes.
Stormsurgeiscompoundedbyrising seasandhurricanewindspeeds.Florida’s westcoastisprojectedtoseemorethan1 footofsea-levelriseby2050.
That’s abest-casescenario.Anditcould stillputthousandsmore at riskofsurge, includingpeoplewhodon’t livein evacuationzones.
During Hurricane Helene,nearly1in10 propertiesinPinellasCounty weresetfor seriousflooding,theTimesfound.Afuture
SeeNORMAL,15X
stormwithsimilarsurgepotential—coupledwithhigherseas—wouldbe even moredevastating.
Anincreasinglywarmer atmospheretraps moremoisture,makinghurricanes rainier.
That canleadto extensiveinlandflooding.
Keelingshasdocumentedanalarming trendoverthelast50years:Rainfallfloodingfromtropical cyclonesiskillingmore peoplethanwindand stormsurge. In the pastdecade, rainfallfloodingcausednearly 60%ofall U.S.hurricanedeaths,scientists withthe National HurricaneCentersimilarly found.
Predictedsurgelevelsserveasthebasisfor evacuationorders.Butinlandflashflooding cancatchpeopleoffguard,inundatingareas that don’t normallyflood.
Recent stormsprovidetragic examples.
Hurricane Helenekilled at least198peopleacrosstheCarolinasand Georgia,largely from rainfallflooding.Atleast20peopledied inFlorida,wheresurgecrashedupanddown theGulfCoastasthe stormmadelandfallin theBigBend.
Awetter atmospherealsomeans rainfall is expectedtocontinuetoincreaseoverallin Florida,notjustduringhurricanes, Keelings said. He looked at thefrequencyof extreme
Aboutthedata
rain eventsfrom1950through2016and foundthatFlorida experiencedanincreaseof about25moreeachyear.
Soilsthatbecomemoresaturatedbythe endofthese extreme rainyseasonscould ripenconditionsfordangerousflooding.
Milton’shurricane-forcewindsripped treesfromalreadysoggy soils,butitshistoric rainalsofloodedneighborhoodsthathad never experiencedwaterssohigh.
About 17 inchesof raindrenchedpartsof Pinellasand Hillsboroughcountiesinjust five hours,submerginginlandneighborhoods.
In Clearwater,residentswerepulledfrom anapartmentcomplexunder6feetofwater.
Milton’s heavy rainscaused stormwater pumpstofailinsome North Tampaneighborhoods,wherelakesoverflowedandcrept insidehomes.
The rainreached 1-in-1,000-yearlevels.
Masters,theformer NationalOceanicand AtmosphericAdministrationscientist,said expectationsabouthowclimatechangewill shapefuturehurricaneseasonscanbeboiled downtoasimpleconcept: “The extremeswill getmore extreme.”
Watersare gettinghotter.Stormsare gettingwetter. Combined, experts say, that meanshurricanescouldcontinuetofeel moreroutine—andalsomoreformidable.
Aversionofthisstorywaspreviouslypublished inthe TampaBayTimes.
TheTimesanalyzedstormpathsfromtheInternationalBestTrackArchiveforClimateStewardship, aNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministrationdatabase.Onlystormsthatreachedatleast tropicalstormstatusbetween1982andNovember2024wereincluded.
Coordinatesreportedinthetracksdatabasewereusedtoidentifytheseasurfacetemperatureandoceanheatwavestatusforeverystorm.Foreverymeasuredpointinastorm’strack, theTimesextractedthecorrespondingtemperatureandheatwavemeasurements.
Heatwavedatawasonlyavailablefrom1985toNovember2024.Ifastormcrossedpathswith anareaexperiencingatleasta“moderate”heatwaveatanypointduringitslifetime,itwas consideredtohaveencounteredamarineheatwave.
Rapidlyintensifyingstormswereidentifiedbycalculatingwindspeedchangeovera24-hourperiod.
Personalhurricanekit
Buildabagwitheverythingyou’ll needinabackpackortwoincase youhavetoevacuate.
•Airhornsorwhistles,tocall forhelp
•Assortedbatteries,including for hearingaids
•Backpacks,sturdyandwaterproof
•Canopener(manual,never electric)
•Cash(nopowerorcellservice meansnocreditcardsormobile payments)
•Disinfectingwipes
•Extraclothingandsocks, includingsomethingwarmincase itgetscold
•First-aidkit
•Handsanitizer
•Handheldlanterns
•Headlampandbatteries
•Identification,insurancecards,etc.
•Insectrepellent
•NOAA WeatherRadio,battery orhand-crank
•Nonprescriptionmedication (anti-diarrheal,painrelievers,etc.)
• Pensandpaper(don’trundown yourphonebatterybywritingstuff down)
• Personalwipes(antibacterial)
•Phonechargingcables, wallchargers
• Portablepowerbanks for smartphonesandtablets
•Rainjacketandpants/poncho
•Rubberboots
•Safetyworkgloves
•Sparecontactsandeyeglasses (alsoeyedrops)
•Sparekeystohomes,businesses andvehicles
•Sturdybootsorshoes (andabackuppair)
•Sunscreen,lipbalm
•Sleepingbags
• Toothbrushes,toothpaste,floss
• Waterpurificationtablets
• Waterproof folders, fordocumentsandphotos
• Waterproofmatches,lighter
IHomehurricanekit
Ifyoulosepowerafterastorm,ifyourhome orneighborhoodgetshithardorifhelpis unabletoreachyou forawhile,thisgearwill makeyourwaitathomemoretolerable.
•Bleach(tocleanupmold)
•Carbonmonoxidedetector,battery-powered(forgas-poweredgenerators)
•Canopener(manual,neverelectric)
•Disinfectingwipes
•Ducttape
•Extrawater(fillbathtubs forflushing)
•Handsoap
•Fan,battery-operated
•Fireextinguisher
•First-aidkit
•Garbagebags,plasticsheeting(for garbageandcoveringbrokenwindows)
•Insectrepellent
•Long-handlesqueegees forscraping mudoutofafloodedhome
• Laserpointer,toattracthelpinthedark
(Aimingoneatanaircraftis a crime.)
•Laundrydetergent,bucket forwashing clothes
•NOAA WeatherRadio,batteryor hand-crank
• Papercups,plates,plasticutensils
• Papertowels(betterthanspongesif
(Shutterstockphotos)
Checklistsforbuildingallkindsofstormkits
BYCHRISTISCH TimesStaffWriter
fyouprepareforhurricaneseasonbyassembling akitofsupplies,chancesareitwasprettypicked apartafterlastyear’s back-to-backhurricanes.
Soit’s timeto getitbackinshape.Or,ifyou haven’t puttogetherakitbefore,lastyearmighthaveprovided ahardlessononhowdifficultlifecanbewithoutone.
The keyisto getyourkitputtogetherearly. Don’t letit beyouwhohastodashinapanictothegrocery storeto fightoverthelastfewgallonsofwater,granolabarsorbatteriesleft ontheshelvesasahurricaneloomsoffourcoast.
Norshouldthatbeyouwaitinginasnaking,threehourline at thepumpasthe stormcreepsclosersoyou can fillyourgascans.
A goodhurricanekithasessentialsthatmay keep youaliveaftera storm suchasmedications,foodand water—butalsohasitemsthatwilljustmakeyourlife alittleeasierormorecomfortableafterahurricane hits,suchasaheadlamporabattery-operatedfan.
Emergencyofficialssayyoushouldhavesevendays’ worthofnonperishablefoodandwaterperfamilymember,includingpets. That’s thelengthoftimeitcouldtake forsuppliestoreachyouafterabadhurricane. The stan-
dardruleisthateach personwillneed at least1gallon ofwaterperday.Youalsoshould keep at least30days’ worthofprescriptionmedicationonhand.
Youdon’thaveto go outtodayandbuyitall at once. Assembleitovertime,purchasingitemslikecanned goods,waterortrailmixthat’sonsaleandbuilditup. Alsoplanto stowitemsthatwillmakelifeeasieror morecomfortable.
Ifyourpowerisoutandyoudon’t havea generator, itwillbepitchblack at night.Sure,a flashlightwilldo for findingyourway around.Butifyouwanttobeable todocomplextasksafterdark,havingaheadlampwill
giveyou
twofreehandsinsteadofonehandhavingto holdtheflashlight.
Andabattery-poweredfanwillgiveyoujus tle bitofcomfort scorchesallofussuddenlylivingwithoutai ing.Also,besureyouhavealotofbackupba keepthatthing go
Beyondthat,herearesomecheckliststohelpyou prepare,nomatterthesituation.
TheFloridaDivisionofEmergency (floridadisaster.org)andthe agementAgency(ready.gov/kit)alsoofferchecklists.
sheeting(for windows)
rscraping
helpinthedark ime.)
rwashing
yor
utensils
pertowels(betterthanspongesif
there’snowater)
• Personalwipes(antibacterial)
• Portableairconditionerthatcan runoff agenerator
• Portablecampingstove
• Portablegenerator(Neveroperateone indoorsornearadoororwindow; bewareofcarbonmonoxidepoisoning.)
• Portablepowerbanks for smartphones andtablets
• Powerfulflashlight
•Rags,spongesandmops forcleanup
•Safetyworkgloves
•Spraypaint(topaintaddress,insurance
ormkits
ofreehandsinsteadofonehandhavingto holdtheflashlight.
ery-poweredfanwillgiveyoujusta litasFlorida’s humidsummerweather scorchesallofussuddenlylivingwithoutair conditioning.Also,besureyouhavealotofbackupbatteriesto going.
Beyondthat,herearesomecheckliststohelpyou erthesituation.
eFloridaDivisionofEmergency Management (floridadisaster.org)andthe FederalEmergency ManagementAgency(ready.gov/kit)alsoofferchecklists.
carrieronhouse)
•Surgeprotectorsorpowerstrips
• Tarps(fordamagedroofs,wallsand windows)
• Termitebaitandantpoison
• Toiletpaper
• Toolkit
• Toothbrushingpads (whenwaterisinshort supply)
•Wrenchorpliers, toturnutilitieson andoff
Children’shurricanekit
Childrenneedahurricanekit,too. Ifyou’rebreastfeeding,experts saytokeep a week’sworthof powdered formulaonhand,just incase.
•Baby food
•Babywipes
•Blankets,pillows
•Books,games,playingcards, puzzles(Donotrelyonelectronic devicestoentertainchildren.)
•Child’sinsuranceID
•Cleanbottles
•Diapers
•Drawingpaper,crayons, markers,pens
•Dry,extraclothingand underwear
•Formula
•Kid-friendlycannedgoods
Vehiclehurricanekit
Inanemergency,yourvehiclemaybethe safestplaceyoucanstayafterastorm.
•Carshovel/pick
•Cash(towtrucksandrepairshopsmay nottakeelectronicpayment)
•Disinfectingwipes
•Ducttape
•Emergencyblankets
•Fireextinguisher
•First-aidkit
•Fusekit
•Garbagebags,plasticsheeting(for garbageandcoveringbrokenwindows)
•Jumpercables
•Medicalalertbracelet(ifneeded)
•Nonprescriptionmedication (anti-diarrheal,painrelievers,etc.)
• Personalwipes(antibacterial)
•Sturdyshoes,rubberboots
• Toothbrushes,toothpaste,floss
• Toys(thatcanbedamaged orlost)
Pethurricanekit
•Maps,mapbooks,gazetteer(physical, notdigital;mustbeuptodate)
•Multitool
• Personalwipes(antibacterial)
•Phonecables
• Pocketknife
• Portableaircompressor
• Portablejumpstarter
• Powerinverter, forchargingdevices
•Safetyworkgloves
•Sparetire(thatactuallyworks)
•Tirejack
•Tiresealant,puncturerepairkit
• Vehicleregistration,proofofinsurance
• Waterrepellant
Gettingyourpetmicrochippedwillhelpensureyou’llbereunitedwithFidoor Kittyifyou’reseparated.Keepyourmicrochipcontactinformationuptodate. Makesureyourpetisalsowearingatagwithyourcurrentcontactinformation.Somesheltersacceptpets,butyou’llstillneedtopacktheirgear.The CDChasapetemergencykitchecklistatbit.ly/3GXFQVw.
•Blanket
•Catlitter,newspaper,evenpaper towels
•Crateorsturdycarrier
•Disposablelittertrays forcats
•Disposablebags forpetcleanup
•Extracollarwithupdatedpettag, contactinformation
•Extraleashes
•Medications(30-daysupply)
•Medicalrecords
•Muzzle
• Petfirst-aidkit
• Pet food(seven-daysupply)
• Petmicrochip(keepupdated)
• Pettoys
• Petwipes
• Portable foodandwaterbowls
•Puppypads
•Recentphotosofpets(incase you’reseparated)
•Serviceanimalsupplies
• Treats
SeeCHECKLIST, 18X
(Shutterstockphotos)
CHECKLIST
First-aidkit
Youcanbuyafirst-aidkitor
buildoneyourself.
•Allergymedication
•Aloe
•Antacid
•Anti-diarrhealmedication
•Antihistaminecream
•Antisepticagent
•Antisepticwipes
•Aspirin,pain-relievers
•Burnreliefspray
•Cottonballs/swabs
•Eyewash
•First-aidmanual
•Handsanitizer
•Hypoallergenicadhesive
tape
•Instantcoldcompress
•Latexgloves
•Laxative
•Moistenedtowelettes
•Mosquitorepellent
•Petroleumjelly
•Safetypins
•Sewingneedle
•Scissors
•Soap
•Splint
•Sterileadhesivebandages (allsizes)
•Sterilegauzepads
•Sunscreen
•Triangularbandages
•Thermometer
•Tweezers
Aversionofthis storywas previously publishedin the Tampa BayTimes.
(Shutterstockphotos)
BYMAXCHESNES
TimesStaffWriter
Thirteendaysbroughtus two storms andcountlesslessons.
Whetheritwasaclearerunderstandingofyourhome’s floodrisk,apreferredhurricanesnackortheimportanceof friendsandfamily, TampaBay’s experience with Heleneand Miltontaughteachofus somethingnew.
Aheadofthe startofthenewhurricane season June1,weasked TampaBayTimes readerstosharethemostimportantlessons theylearnedlastyear. Theresponses,taken together,underscoreacommunitythathas emergedfromtheothersideofrepeatednaturaldisasterswiser, strongerandmoregracioustothosearoundthem.Whatlessonsdid youlearn? Here’s whatyouhadtosay.
Fendingofffloods
Payattentiontosurgesandtides,don’t assumeyouarenotgoingtofloodifyouare notdirectlyonthewater. — PatsyStills, Clearwater
Prepareforwaterinhousebyraising expensivefurnitureaminimumof12"above floor.Sealtoiletsandshowerdrainsto
Herearethelessonsyoulearned from TampaBay’shistoric 2024hurricaneseason
We askedreadersfortheirmostimportantlessonslearnedfrom hurricanesHeleneandMilton.Here’swhattheyhadtosay.
preventsepticbackupintohouse. Paul Hauck,HillsboroughCounty
Keepyourlithiumbatteriesawayfrom potentialfloodareas.Oure-bikescaughton fireandburneddownourhouse. —Amber Valente,TreasureIsland
ThebigLowe’sbucketsthatare$5/ pieceareacheapwaytoraisefurniture.The bigvacuumsealbagsaregreatforstoring clothesandkeepingthemdry. Ifwatergotinandthewallsarewet,start takingtheSheetrockoutimmediatelytwo feetabovethewaterlineinordertoprevent mold.—KellyKenson,Dunedin
IelevatedmyA/Ccondenserafterlast year’shurricaneseason.WeliveinaDevac-
uationzoneandhaveneverhadtoevacuate in35years.Wehadsomuchrainlastyearin threestormsandsomuchstandingwater intheyard,thecondenserwasdangerously closetobeingflooded. —MindyBacon, PalmHarbor
Vulnerabilitytostorms
Welearnedhowincrediblyeasyitcanbeto bewipedoffthegrid,physicallyanddigitally. BetweenHeleneandMiltontherewasno power,nowater,noservice,nogas,noplaces takingcards/cashonly,foodwasscarce. KristenDeTroia,RivieraBay,St.Petersburg
I‘velivedinPinellasCounty41years,and the2024seasonreinforcedthatthestorms aregettingbiggerandstrongerthanever
before.Climatechangeisreal! —LindaJ. Smith,PinellasCounty
Wehadbeenfloodedtwicebefore,butnever expectedanythingthisserious—31inches ofbaywaterinourhome.Everythingruined.I knewclimatechangewasencroaching,but neverexpectedittobesodramaticsofast. WeareapplyingtoElevateFlorida.Wewill alsotrytosell,butthemarketisbad.Weare restoring,butourhousewouldhavesoldfor $800k(historicartsdistrict,closetowater andhasapool)beforethehurricane.Now maybe$350k? —ElizabethRiggs,Gulfport Eventhoughourhouseisoutsideofany floodzones,westillgottwofeetofwaterin thefrontyardandwateralmostgotinthe house.We’llneedtosandbagthedoorsin additiontoputtingtheshuttersup. —Nick Underwood,CentralOak Park,St. Pete Iwillnotbuyorrentfirstflooranymore. — LaynaraDeOliveora,SouthTampa Peopleactlike10ftelevationisamagical numbereventhoughitisn’t.I‘velearnedto livewhereIamIhavetofullyacceptthisas apartoflifeormovetohigherground. — AmandaWhite,St. Petersburg
SeeLESSONS,20X
Thementaltoll
Thetraumaanduncertaintyofridingoutthestormwas somethingIneverwanttoexperienceagain. —Sharon Henry, Wellswood
MybiggestlessonwasthatItriedtokeepworkingthroughout.Afterwards,Irealizedthatthestressofthestormshad reallyimpactedme.IrealizedlaterthatIshouldhavetakenoff sometimetorecover,butItriedtokeepworkingandmywork sufferedbecauseofthestress.
ThestormstooktheirtollandnexttimeIwilltrytotaketime offtorecovermentally.—AlexandraFurnari,WesleyChapel
Ididn’tknowthatyoucanloseeverythingwithinafew hoursandyoucan’tdoanythingaboutit.That’swhatIlearned fromHeleneandMilton. —Phil,St. Petersburg
Generators
TheonethingthatIthinkweneedistopurchaseagenerator.SinceweareinthehighestareainPinellasCounty,we didn’tflood.Butwedidlosepowerforafewdays. —Gary Sirmons,St. Petersburg
Ifyouareoutlookingforanewgenerator,considerageneratorthattakespropaneinsteadofgasoline.Propanetanks areeasiertostorethanliquidgasoline,makingthefiredanger less.—LuisSantana,TampaBayTimesphotojournalist Iwillhaveageneratorandwillkeepseveralextracansof gas.—BriMargolis,SoutheastSeminoleHeights
Alow-lyingcommunityinClearwater,2690Apartments, wasinundatedbymore than6 feet of floodingfromHurricaneMilton. (MAXCHESNES|Times)
Moregasreserves.Wekeep15gallonsofgasbackupfor ourgenerator.We’renotinafloodzoneandstayinplace.15 gallonsgivesus3daysandafterthatweneedtoreplenish. Thisyearwehavefive5-galloncontainersandwillhavemore inreserves. — Vaun Perez,KennethCity
Haveadualortri-fuelgeneratorforwhenthegasolineruns out.AndXanax. —BonnieAgan,St. Petersburg
Tipsandtricks
Nextyear,allofthemeatin thefridgeandfreezerwillbe removedpriortoevacuation Welostpowerandallofthe meatrotted,hadtogeta newfridge.Thatwasthe... WORST.Thesmell,ohmy God.Neveragain. —Anonymous,Bartlett Park
Ensuringmy3weeks+ ofmydog‘srefillsaretaken careof!...Itwasveryhard tofillitbecauseclinicswere understandablyinundated withbig-timeemergencies ...It’soneofthosethingsyou reallydon’tthinkaboutwhen you’reevacuatingdespite yourbestefforts. —Lauren Fielder,SeminoleHeights Documentwhatisineach roomwithavideo.Sendcopiesofallyourinsuranceinfo, driver’slicense,etc.toanoutof-statecontactorputinthecloud. —LauriIngham,Largo
Donottruststorewebsitestwodaysoutfromthe stormmakinglandfall.Theyarelyingtoyouabouthaving battery-poweredlampsandflashlights.Therearenobattery-poweredlampsorflashlightsanywhere. —Shauna Muckle,TampaBayTimesreporter
WehadcellservicefromConsumerCellular,whichuse theAT&Tnetwork,whichfailedduringthe4days.Mysister wasvisitingduringtheoutageandhasVerizonservice,which neverwentdown. —LarryBinder,Ruskin
Wechosetoinvestintree-trimmingandremovalinstead ofstormshuttersafterwhatwesawlastyear.Forhomesthat didn’tflood,itseemsliketreesweretheoverwhelmingcause ofdamage.— JayPreble,SafetyHarbor
1.TakeaweekendattheendofJunetorestock/purchase whatyouneedforahurricanesoyou’renotscramblingatthe sametimeaseveryoneelse.
2.Don’tletyourselfeatallthenon-perishablesfromNo.1 asasnackbeforeanyactualstormhits. —AnaUnderwood, CentralOak Park,St. Petersburg
Stickingtogether
IlearnedthatmyhusbandandIhaveanextremelysolid relationship(thatwasneverindoubtbutthosefewweeks/ monthsjustprovedwecouldsurviveazombieapocalypse!). Friendsandfamilywereourtrueheroes— JenniferLumm, Dunedin
Ilearnedthevalueofpeopleoverthings:thatfriends,family,andtotalstrangerswillhelpyoumovewhenyouputacall forhelponFacebook.Peoplewillchoosetobekind,tohelp, tomakeahorrificsituationthatnooneshouldhavetogo throughlesstraumatic. —DeborahKelley,Town‘NCountry Thebestwaytosurviveahurricaneistobandtogether —Rufusdel Valle,Terrace Park
Contact MaxChesnesatmchesnes@tampabay.com. Follow@MaxChesnes.
2025 HurricanePrepGuide
BYMICHAELAMULLIGAN TimesStaffWriter
Theprospect ofwater pushinginto homesandbusinessesisaheavy weightonthemindsof TampaBay residentsaheadof storms.
Despitelastyear’s devastatinghurricane season, TampaBayhas stillnothadadirect hitfromahurricaneinoveracentury. Yet, 14 peopledrownedinthe TampaBayarea during Hurricane Helenefromdangerous stormsurge,andthousandsofhomeswere damagedfromcoastalwaterorflooding rains.
Whileguidancefromthe National HurricaneCenterandemergencymanagersis kingaheadof storms,it’s helpfultohave a few extratoolsinthebelt.Oneofthoseis watchingreal-timeandfuturewaterlevels.
Awebsitefromthe NationalOceanicand AtmosphericAdministrationprovidesdata ontidegaugesacrossportionsofcoastal TampaBay. Andanotherresourcefromthe National Water PredictionServiceshows whereriverfloodingispossible.
Theinformation,whilefarfromtheonly pieceinthelargerpuzzlethatishurricane preparation,givesresidentsanotherwayto evaluatetherisktotheirhomesandlives.
Wanttoknowwhatareas areflooding? Here’swheretolook
To beclear: Thesetoolsareasupplement topersonaldecision-making(likeplanning tomoveyourcartohigherground,orifyou should startpackingyourcaraheadof evacuations),butifofficialstellyouto evacuate, youneedtoleave.
We’vegatheredwhattoknowaboutrising water and how toaccess asampling of thedatasurroundingit.
Whattoknowabouttides
Let’sbreakdownthebasics.
Tidesareinfluencedbythesunandmoon. Whenthetallestpartofawavereachesan area,that’shightide. Theopposite,thelowest,islowtide.
Thedifferenceintheseheightsiscalled a tidal range.
Weatherpatternscanalsoinfluencetides. Strongwindand raincanleadtohigher-than-expectedtides, Virginia Dentler,an oceanographerforthe NationalOceanicand AtmosphericAdministration,previouslytold the TampaBayTimes.
TampaBaytendstoseeitshighesttides oftheyeararoundlatesummerandearly fall—coincidentallyaroundpeakhurricane season.Aroundthistime,waterlevelsgrow byabout8or9inchesfromwhatis typically recordedinwinterandspring.
“Whenyouhavewarmerwaters,ocean water expands,andsoitincreasesinelevationalongthecoast,”GregoryDusek, a seniorscientist at the NationalOceanic andAtmosphericAdministration,previouslytoldtheTimes.
Thisisalsoaroundwhen“kingtides,”acolloquialtermthatreferstohigher-than-normaltides,canoccur.
Thefloodingthesehightidescancausehas afewothernames,like nuisancefloodingor sunny-dayflooding.
Akingtideoccurswhen twoingredients cometogether—whenthemoonisclosestto theEarth,combinedwithaneworfullmoon. In TampaBay, therearejustafewfeetof differencebetweenlowandhightides,which islessthaninothercoastalpartsofthecountry. That meanswhateverweatheroccursthat daywillplayamoreimportantroleindeterminingifahightidewillcausefloodinghere. Floodingcanalsooccurwithoutaweather system,thoughit’s lesscommon.
Akingtideoccurredwhile Hurricane Idaliawasskirtingthecoastof TampaBayin 2023. Idaliascrapedneartheareajusthours beforeakingtide. Haditarrivedaboutsix hourslater, Idalia’s stormsurgelikelywould havebeenabout2feethigher.
Wheretofindtidedata
The NationalOceanicandAtmospheric Administrationhasaplethoraoftidal stationsacrossthecountry. In TampaBay,a
FLOODING
numberofthosesitesareconcentrated alongthecoastalwatersofPinellasand Hillsboroughcounties.
Because TampaBayhasaportsystem, therearemoretidalgaugesinthesurroundingwaters,Dentlersaid. However, more-northernareasof TampaBay, like PascoCountyandbeyond,arewithout thesegauges.
Dentlersaidtide stationsare typically addedontopreexisting structures,likePier 60on ClearwaterBeach.
Theadministration’s Tides&Currents websitelinkstoitstide stations,which includeinformationlike waterlevels,wind speedsandobservedbarometricpressure.
Whena stormisincoming,Dentler suggestslookingtotheadministration’s Coastal InundationDashboard.
“It’sourreal-timeproduct,”Dentlersaid.
HousesareseenneartheAlafiaRiveras watercreepsontoproperty. Waterlevelsalongriversandlakes oftenlag weeksormonthsbehind coastalareasafter stormsduetonaturalhydrologicalprocesses. (LUISSANTANA|Times,2019)
Pinpointsonamapshowwheretide stationsarelocated.Onceauserclicks on theirdesiredlocation,that station’sobservedwaterlevelspopup.
Accordingtothe U.S. GeologicalSurvey, riverforecasts aremadebythe National Water PredictionService,whichis underthe National WeatherService.
Stationsgive real-time water level dataand willshow whenminorflooding(inyellow),moderateflooding(inred) andmajorflooding(inpink)arepossible.
Thelinesonthegraphdepictthreepossiblewaterlevels: Predictedwaterlevels,observedwaterlevelsandforecasted waterlevels.
Thedarkbluelineshowswaterlevelpredictionsthat oceanographersmadeayearinadvance. Theredlineshows wherewaterlevels currentlyare. Thelightbluelineshows theforecastguidance,whichinputs externalweatherforces suchashighwinds.
Thetoolfound at water.noaa.govcanshowgaugesfor thesesites.IfyouzoominonFlorida,you’ll findlittledots lightinguptheentire state.
Acaveat: Therearelotsofbuttonsanddrop-downsto playwithonthissite;waterlevelsareoneaspect.
Ononeofitsmostbasiclevels,clickingonthedotsdisplayedonthesitewillshowawaterbody’s currentinformationandaforecast,if available.
Adotcorrespondswithanobservation,whileasquare correspondswithaforecast.
Theforecastguidancelineisthebestbetinknowinghow highwaterlevelsmayreachduringa storm,Dentlersaid.
All stationshavedifferentheights at whichfloodingcan occur. In St. Petersburg, for example, minor flooding can happen at alittlelessthan3feet.
Eachcoloreddotorsquarecorrespondswithawater gauge. For example:green(noflooding),yellow (action), orange(minorflooding),red(moderateflooding)andpurple(majorflooding).
Most ofthehighestwaterlevelsrecordedinthe station’s historyoccurredduringhurricanes.
Ofthetop fivehighestwaterlevels,threehaveoccurred since2020.
Helenetookthecrownlastyear,dethroningarecord set39yearsbefore.During Helene,observedwaterlevels reachedmorethan2feethigherthantherecordsetduring HurricaneElenain1985.
Wheretofindriverwaterlevels
Just likecoastalareas,inlandresidentsofFloridaareno strangerstoflooding.
Anewerversionofthemapwasreleasedlast yearthat hasmorebellsandwhistles,likea“floodinundation”section.Ausercanalsodisplaythissectionundertheoriginal map,butitwillwarnthattheinformationis experimental In April2024,agraphicfoundonthe National Water PredictionServiceproductshowedtheSuwaneeRiver at ManateeSpringswasinaminorflooding stage,anditwas expectedtofalltoanactionlevelinthefollowingdays.
Thebluelineshowedobservedwaterlevels,whilethe dottedpurplelineshowedthewaterlevelforecast.
Shouldthe National WeatherServiceplaceanareaunder afloodwarning,thelocationwillbehighlightedingreen. Clickingontheareawilldisplaythefulladvisory.
Arecapofwebsites
• Forinformationontides:Tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov
When Hurricane MiltonmadelandfallonFlorida’s westcoastlastyear,itwasthethird stormtodosoinafew months. Thewaterlogged ground and TampaBay’s infrastructurewereunabletohandletherecord rainfall.
Riversareaparticularkindofbeast. Waterlevelsalong rivers andlakes often lagweeksor months behind coastal areasafter stormsduetonatural hydrologicalprocesses.
Miltonsetrecordsacross TampaBay. The Hillsborough Riverroseabove38feet,shatteringa2017 record. The WithlacoocheeRivercrested at nearly20feet,thehighestin nearlyacentury, ninedaysafterthe stormpassed.
• To findtheCoastal InundationDashboard: Tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb.
• Forinformationonrivers: Water.noaa.gov.
Aversionofthisstorywaspreviouslypublishedinthe TampaBay Times.
ContactMichaela Mulliganatmmulligan@tampabay.com. Follow@Michaela_Mull.
BYMICHAELAMULLIGAN TimesStaffWriter
It’sonceagainhurricaneseason,when TV screenslightupwithcolorfulgraphicsof conesandswirly storms.
Fromyeartoyear,the National Hurricane Centermakessmall tweakstoofficialforecastsandgraphics. Thisyear, forinstance, thesizeoftheconewillshrinkbyabout3% to5%
Butlastyear,forecastersunveiledabig change:an experimentalcone,whichwill stickaroundthisseason.
“Itbetterhighlightedtheriskofcoastal andinlandimpacts—sonotjustfocusedon watchesandwarningsalongthecoast but also what couldoccurinland,” said Robbie Berg,thewarningcoordinationmeteorologistforthehurricanecenter,duringawebinarinApril.
The experimentalcone actsas a supplement,notareplacement,totheforecast conewe’reusedtoseeing,andisintendedto helpresidentsunderstandtheirriskofdangerouswindsduring storms.
We’vegatheredtogetherchangescoming tohurricanegraphicsthisyearandsome friendlyreminders ahead of what maybe anotherbusyseasonoftropicalactivity.
2025 HurricanePrepGuide
Hurricaneforecastspoppingupagain? Here’show toreadthem
Arefresheronwatchesandwarnings
Aheadofa storm,thehurricanecenter issueswatchesandwarningstoareasthat couldfeelitsforce. Theseadvisoriesactas a guidetoallowresidentstounderstandtheir risk.
But keeping themall straight,especially intimesofemergency, isdaunting.
Forecastersbreakdownwatchesand warningsintothreecategories:Riskof stormsurge,tropical storm-forcewindsand hurricane-forcewinds.
Stormsurgeisthebiggest threattopeopleandpropertyalongcoasts. In Pinellas County, 12peopledrownedin Hurricane Helene‘s stormsurgelastyear.
Thehurricanecenterplacesanarea undera stormsurgewatchwhendangerous,life-threateningwaterinundationis possible They areissued generally twodays beforerisingwaterscouldarrive.
A stormsurgewarningisissuedabout36 hoursbeforeforecasters expect alife-threateningsurgewilloccur.
Stormsurge watches andwarnings are notshownonatrackforecast. Instead,they receivetheirowngraphic.
Whilesurgewarningsshowcasethe threatofwater, tropical stormandhurricanewarningsdisplaywindthreats.
Forecastersissueahurricanewatchwhen hurricaneconditions—windspeedsof 74
mphorhigher—are possible withinaspecific area. They areissued generallywithin twodays beforetropical-storm-forcewindscouldarrive. Whenyourhomeisunderawatch, that’swhenofficialssayyoushouldbegin stormpreparationsandreview evacuationplans.
Ahurricanewarningisissuedwhenhurricaneconditionsare expected within36 hoursorless, andit means it’s time to finishpreparationsandhunkerdown—or be readyto evacuate shouldlocalofficials adviseyoutodoso.
Atropical stormwatchisissuedwhen windsof39to73mphare possible inan area.Awarningisissuedwhentropical-storm-forcewindsare expected These watchesandwarningsfollowthesametimelinesashurricanewatchesandwarnings.
Last year,thehurricanecentergained moreflexibilityforissuingwatchesand warnings,andnowforecasterscanissuethe warningsduringanyadvisory—something thatwillcontinuethisyear.
Additionally,forecasterscanissue “potentialtropical cyclone”advisories uptothreedaysinadvancethisseason, insteadoftheprevious twodaysinadvance.
ANationalHurricaneCentergraphicshowspeak stormsurgelevels forFlorida during TropicalStormHeleneas of 5a.m.onSept.25. (NationalHurricaneCenter)
Theexperimentalcone isstickingaround
Apotentialtropical cycloneisadisturbancethathasn’t becomeatropical storm orhurricaneyet,butcouldbringthoseconditionstoland.
Last season,forecastersissuedtheseadvisoriesforninesystems.
“Thekeythingheretonoteisthatit’snottied solelytowatchesandwarnings,”Bergsaid.
Therecouldbeacasewhenforecasters expect stormconditionswithin 72 hours andtheyissueapotentialtropical cyclone advisory. However,watchesandwarnings won’t beissueduntilthe36-to-48-hour timeframe,Bergsaid.
Themainpurposeoftheconeistohave watchesandwarningstakeprecedenceover thesizeandlocationofthe stormcone.
Underthe experimentalcone,areasin ahurricanewatcharedenotedinpink, whileatropical stormwatchareaisinyellow.Communitiesswathedinredareunder ahurricanewarning,andatropical storm warningareaisinblue.
Basedonfeedbackfromlastyear,the hurricanecenterwilladdasymbolto itslegendshowcasingareaswherehurricanewatchesandtropical stormwarnings overlap. It willberepresentedbyapink areawithblueslashes.
Debrisleft overfromHurricaneHeleneispicturedontheside of aroadnearBahia Beachintheaftermath of HurricaneMiltononOct.10inRuskin. (LUISSANTANA|Times,2024)
Thehurricanecenterhasshowcasedwhat thegraphiclookslikebyusingthe exampleof Hurricane HelenefromSept.25,2024. Much ofthe TampaBayareaisinpinkwithblue slashes,indicatingtheareawasunderahurricanewatchandtropical stormwarning.
Whythe‘coneofuncertainty’ isn’tperfect
Thehurricanecenteriscontinuingto releaseits currenthurricaneconegraphic alongsidethe experimentalone.
Thecenter’s trackforecastconeisvitalin understandingthedirectiona stormismoving.Butwhat’simportanttorememberis whattheconeis not showingyou.
Theconeitselfdoesnotdepictthesizeor
strengthofa storm. Instead,itshowswhere the storm’s centerislikelytobe. Eventhat comeswithcaveats.
Theconeisbasedonan averageofthe product’slast fiveyearsoferrors. Forecasters expecta stormwillremainwithinthe cone roughly60%to70%ofthetime. That meanstheconeisfarfromfoolproof.
“Aswe’vepreachedtimeandtimeagain, theconeisnotariskproduct,” Bergsaid.“It tellsyounothingaboutthewindassociated withthe storm.
“Youreallyhavetofocusonthose watchesandwarnings.”
ContactMichaela Mulliganat mmulligan@tampabay.com Follow@Michaela_Mull.
BYJACKPRATOR
TimesStaffWriter
Muchof Mark Fulkerson’s work starts afteracatastrophic stormhas passedandits rainhasceased.
As achiefengineerfortheSouthwest Florida Water ManagementDistrict,he spendstheweeksfollowingahurricane documentinghigh-watermarksandmeasuringhowcloselytheagency’sfloodmaps matchupagainstrealflooding.
When MiltonmadelandfallasaCategory 3hurricanelastOctober,itdroppednear-record rainfallonthe TampaBay area and swampedhomesalongtheregion’s many riversandlakes.
Fulkersonfoundthatmanyofthesquigglesdartingacrossfloodmapshisagency hasspentdecadesdevelopinglinedup quiteaccuratelywithfloodwatersreportedduringandafter Milton’s deluge. Still,the stormseasonofthecenturytook many TampaBayresidentsbysurprise.
“Ihopeit’s theflood eventof my career,” Fulkersonsaid.“Ihopewedon’t have anotheronelikeit.”
He saidtheagency’sjobistomanagewater, butSwiftmudcan’t entirelycontrolflooding.
Whattoknowabout
riverflooding
HurricaneMiltonpushedtheregion’sriverstotheirlimits. Here’showyoucankeeptabsonwaterlevelsthisseason.
“Wecan’t stopitfromhappening.But therearethingswecandotohelpmanage floodrisk—bydoingthemodelingwedo toalertpeople,bytryingtoworkwiththe citiesandcountiesonprojectswherethey makesense,” Fulkersonsaid. “You get rain like Milton,there’s nowayyou’re goingto stopthatwater.”
Theonusisonhomeownersandother residentstoknowtheboundariesofnearby floodzonesand stay uptodateonlocal warnings,headded.
Herearesometipsthatwatermanagers,researchersandforecasterssaycould help everyoneprepareforfutureriver floods:
WhywasMilton’s rain socatastrophic?
Evendaysafter Miltonmadelandfall, many riversandcreeksaroundtheregion stillhadn’t crested. Thedelayedflooding surprisedresidentswhothoughtthey had beensparedfromdevastatingfloodwaters, onlytohavethe raincatchuptothemlater.
Waterlevelsalongriversandlakesoften lagweeksormonthsbehindothercoastal andinlandareasafterpowerful stormsdue tonatural hydrologicalprocesses. Geography, liketheelevationaroundahomeand thedepthandshapeofariver,dictateshow andwhenawaterbodywillfloodfollowing extreme rain.
Miltonsetrecordsforriverheightsinthe TampaBayarea.Atitspeak,the HillsboroughRiverroseabove38feetandshattered a2017 recordbynearly4feet,accordingto a watergauge at MorrisBridge.
TheWithlacoocheeRivercrested at 19.7 feetninedaysafter Miltonmadelandfall, accordingtoawatergaugenearitsheadwaters. It wasthehighestwaterlevelrecorded therein90years.
Theheaviestof Milton’s rainfellinthe GreenSwamp— vast wetlands stretching across Polk, Lake,Sumter, Hernandoand Pascocountiesthatserveastheheadwatersforfourmajorwaterways:theWithlacoochee, Hillsborough,Ocklawahaand Peacerivers.
Theupstreamdelugecarriedfloodwaters downtheriversandfloodedcommunities.
CypressCreek,amajortributaryofthe HillsboroughRiver,crested at arecordhigh of15feetfourdaysafterlandfall. Waterlevels stayedhighforweeks,shockinglongtime Pascoresidents.
TheCypressCreekwetlandbasin,which servesasthedrain-offforthesurroundingdevelopments,wasoverwhelmed
SeeRIVERS,28X
by excessive rainwaterfrom Milton, Fulkersonsaid.SaturatedwetlandsinBigCypress Swampcausedfloodingin LandO’ Lakes and Wesley Chapel.
About25%ofthewatermanagementdistrict’sjurisdictionismadeupofwetlands, Fulkersonsaid. They absorband store rainwater. LevelsoftenfluctuateduringFlorida‘s wetand dryseasons. When thosewetlands fillup,run-off hasto findanalternate path.
Waterhasthreeplacesto go It cansoak intotheground, fillingtheaquifer—which servesasFlorida‘smaindrinkingwater supply—and raisingthewatertable. Runoffmightdraintoriversthatriseandcause floodingalongitsbanks. Or waterflows acrossthelandandcollectsintoalow-lying areacalledaclosedbasin.
“It’s gotnowheretodrainafterthat,” Fulkersonsaid.
Afterthree monthsof above-average rain lastsummer,theregion’s groundwassaturatedwithwater. Milton’s delugepushed watershedstotheirbrink.
Wheretocheckriverlevels
The National Water PredictionService providesatoolthatidentifieswaterlevelsin riversacrossthecountry. Ifyouzoominon Florida,you’ll findlittledotslightingupthe entire state.
Eachdotcolorrepresentstheriver’s flood stage:Green(noflooding),yellow(action), orange(minorflooding),red(moderate flooding)andpurple(majorflooding).
Liketidalgaugesthatmeasurecoastal waterlevels,eachriverhasdifferentheights at whichfloodingcanoccur.
Thetoolalsoprovidesaforecastfor future river heights: A blue line shows observedwaterlevels,whileadottedpurple lineshowsthewaterlevelforecast.
Butriverfloodingisdifficulttopredict, accordingtoresearchers.
“Tryingtopredicthowhighariverwill get,therearedifferentaspectsthatkind ofcancomplicatesomeofthosepredictions,”saidKatherineSerafin,acoastal geographerandassistantprofessor at the UniversityofFlorida.
Where exactlythe rainwillfall,itstiming, howmanybandsof rainatropicalsystem willbringandhowfastthe rainwillmove overlandareestimatedinordertoforecast floodrisks.
Theriver’s depthisoftenanoverlooked factor,Serafinsaid.Submergeddebrisfrom past stormsmay fillupariverbed,causingit torisequickerthan expected.
Therivergaugesitealsodisplays current floodwarningsimposedbythe National WeatherService—shownonatabunder
thespecificrivergauge —layingouthazardsandfurtherfloodingdetails.
Howtoknowyourfloodrisk
Originalfloodplainmapsusedbythe FederalEmergency ManagementAgencyto setfloodinsurance rateswere firstdeveloped inthe1980s, Fulkerson said. DevelopmentinFloridahasboomedinthedecades since,makingmany ofthosecalculations outdated.
OneofSwiftmud’s longest-runningprojectshasbeentoupdatethem:Overthepast 25years,theagencyhasmadenewrenderingsoffloodmapsformorethan130watersheds,makingup75%ofthedistrict.
“Thehopeisthatresidentsare aware whentheybuyproperty,theyknowwhat they’re getting,” Fulkersonsaid.
Thefloodmapstakeintoaccountfactors likeelevation,soil typeandlanduse.
Drivenbygravity, waterdrainstothelowestpointitcanreachandpoolsthere.Sandy soilsdrain morequicklythandenseclay. Knowingwhatthegroundbeneathandthe topographyaroundyourhomearelike can help evaluatefloodrisk.
Fulkersonsaid previousfloodingis anotherbigindicatorofrisk.
“A lotofareasthatwesawfloodedthis pastyear,theyfloodedinthepast,”he said. “Whetherwelivedhereornot,it’s happened.”
AninfluxofnewFloridiansmovingtothe areahasalsocontributedtoalackofflood awareness.
“OnethingthatIheardfromalotofthe residentsisjustnothavinganyclueitcould happen,”hesaid. “Youlosealotofthat historicalknowledge,too,whenpeoplesellor peoplepasson.”
Howhigharelakesandriversnow?
Drivingaroundtheregion, evensix monthsafter Milton, Fulkerson still sees pocketsof standingwaterinplaceswhereit normallywouldn’t pool.
“Anytimeyou havea bigfloodoneyear, dependingonhowmuch rainyou get betweenthenandthenext rainyseason,we couldbe startingalothigherandhaveless roomtobreathebeforethenexthurricane season,”hesaid.
Butbelow-average rainfall at the start oftheyearhasbalancedouttheregion’s saturation.
TampaBay’srivershavelongflushed out Milton’s raintoopenseas.Somelakes remainslightlyelevated.Aquiferlevelsare high,but steadilydroppingbacktonormal.
And Fulkersonsaidthere’s still time for water storestodepletebeforehurricane seasonagainbringsthethreatofflooding.
“Forthemostpart,weseemtoberecovering,” Fulkersonsaid.
2025 HurricanePrepGuide
Resourcesforseniors,othersneeding hurricane evacuationhelp
BYEMILYL.MAHONEY
TimesStaffWriter
Amongthe TampaBaylocalswho werekilledduringlastyear’s historichurricaneseason,manyshared atragictraitincommon: They wereover60 yearsold. Most livedinmandatory evacuationzonesbutdidn’t leave.Somealsohad mobilityissues,suchasneedingwalkersto getaround.
Jeff Johnson, the state director for AARPFlorida,whichadvocatesforpeople overtheageof50,saidthatinaddition tophysicalhurdles,olderadultsalsomay haveahardertime,emotionally,leaving theirhomesandnotknowingwhatit’ll looklikewhentheycomeback.Afterlivingsomewherefordecades,possibly filled withitemsthatrepresentfriendsand familywhohavepassed away,theprocess canbedifficult.
PinellasCounty
Butit’s importanttoheedmandatory evacuationcalls.
Johnsonnotedthat evenifresidentsthink they’resafefrom stormsurgeonanupper floorofacondohigh-rise,theyneedtoconsiderwhatitwouldbeliketolivetherewithoutanypowerorwaterfordays,includingif theelevators go outintallbuildings.Some peopleofallagesmightneedhelp evacuating,too,becausetheylacktransportationor the financialmeanstobookahotelroom.
Forpeoplewhoneedhelp evacuating aheadofahurricane,thereareresources available.
Residentswhorelyonmedication, oxygenorpowercanaddtheirnames to the state’sspecialneedsregistrybeforeahurricanelooms. That registry, runbythe FloridaDepartmentof Healthincoordinationwithcounty governments,is at snr.flhealthresponse.com.
Countyofficialsencourageresidentswithmedicalneeds,wholacktransportation,orneed helpwalkingorgettingoutofbedtoregisterforthecounty’sspecialneedsprogram.Residentscanasktheirhomehealthcareprovideraboutregisteringormaydosoonlineatpinellas. gov/special-needs.YoucanalsorequestaformbycallingPinellasCountyEmergencyManagementat727-464-3800.
HillsboroughCounty
Specialneedsresidentsshouldregisteratthestatehealthdepartmentwebsiteabove,accordingtocountyofficials.TheHillsboroughCountyHurricaneEvacuationAssessmentToolathcfl. gov/residents/stay-safeincludesreal-timeshelterlocations,evacuationzonesandHARTbus evacuationroutes.Forassistance,thecounty’smaininformationlineis813-272-5900.Residentscanalsocallthestorminformationlinewhenemergencystaffareactivated: 833-427-8676.
PascoCounty
Residentswithspecialneedscanfindinformationonregistering,plusashortvideoonhowto register,atpascocountyfl.net/services/emergency_management/special_needs.php KevinGuthrie,thedirectorofFlorida’sDivisionofEmergencyManagement,saidresidentscan alsocall800-729-3413withquestionsonevacuationordersorforassistancegettingout.
TimesstaffwriterJustinGarciaandTimes/Heraldstaff writer RomyEllenbogencontributedtothis report.
ContactEmilyL. Mahoneyatemahoney@tampabay.com. Follow@mahoneysthename.
2025 HurricanePrepGuide
Howtohandle fires,treelimbs andotherhazards afterahurricane
ByTimesStaffWriters
Someofthemostdangeroushurricanehazardsoccuraftera stormhas passed.
Standingwater, firesand downed power linesarejustafewoftheperils Tampa Bayresidentsneedtobe awareofasthey emergefromorreturntotheirhomes.
Herearesometipstoprotectyourself.
Avoidingfires/electricalissues
Waterandelectricitydonotmix, Tampa Electricspokesperson Mary LouCarnpreviouslytoldthe TampaBayTimes. Hereare a fewtipsto avoidelectrical fires.
VEHICLEFIRES: Overathree-dayperiodas HelenepassedFloridainSeptember, at least 93vehiclescaught fireinPinellasCounty In Tampa,a firebrokeout at the TesladealershiponFlorida Avenue,accordingtoa HillsboroughCountyspokesperson. The fire occurredinabatterypackremovedfrom thevehicle,andthevehiclehadbeensubjectedtofloodwaters.
“Lithium-ionbatteries,suchasthosein electricvehicles,including golfcartsand electricbikes,posea fireriskafterbeing exposedtosaltwater,” Pinellasspokesperson KelseyGrentzerwroteina statement lastyear.
Residentswithelectricvehicles,e-bikes or golfcartsareaskedtoparktheminareas wheretheywillnotbe exposedtosaltwater, andpeopleshould avoiddrivingthrough standingwater.
Anylithium-ionbatterythathasbeen exposedtowatershouldnotbethrown away innormaltrash.Batterymanufacturershavespecificdisposalinstructions.
Electricvehicles exposedtosaltwater shouldbemoved at least50feet away from homes, asthey runtherisk of causing fires inthedaysfollowingtheinitial exposure. Thevehiclesmayneedtobetowedtoadealershipafterthe storm.
DOWNEDPOWERLINES: Downedpower linescancarryelectric currents strong enoughtocausedeath.Drivingoveror touchingadownedpower line—orthings thattouchadownedpowerline—could leadtoseriousinjuryordeath.
Youshouldassumethatalldownedlines arelive.
BREAKERS/ELECTROCUTION: Carntoldthe Timeslastyearthatresidents evacuating particularlythoseinfloodzones—should turnofftheirmainbreaker.Carnalsosaid it’s essentialtomakesurehandsaredry andnottobe standinginanywaterwhen touchinganyelectricalitem.Florida Power
A
Teslathatcaughtfireisshownon Pass-a-Grille Way at 23rdAvenueinSt. PeteBeachafterHurricaneHelene.
(DIRKSHADD|Times,2024)
and Light Company recommendsturning offbreakerswitchesonebyoneandturningthembackononebyoneafterpoweris restored.FPLalsowarnsagainsttouching theelectricmeter.
Dealingwithhomedamage
TREELIMBS: Iftreelimbslandonyour houseorvehicleduringa storm,certified arborist Jacob HerediaofLumber Jake’s TreeServiceadvisesagainsttheurgetotry toremovethemyourself.
Instead,hetoldtheTimeslastyear,peopleshouldtakepicturesofthedestruction fromthegroundandthencallsomeone whoregularlydealswithtreeremovals. It could prevent both injuries and additionaldamages.
“Brancheswilloftencrack,andthere’s lotsandlotsofpressurewecan’t see,” Herediasaid.“Ifyoudisruptthepressure...you canhavethatpiecerollordisconnectfrom thetree.”
Theendresultcouldbe dislodgingnotonlythe branch,causingittofall,but alsocreatinganewsetof problemsforthe structureit landedon.
“Youcanfurtherdamagesomethingthatmight havebeen superficial,but nowthere’s ahole,” Herediasaid. “There’s absolutely waystorealizefurther damagebytryingtocleansomethingup.”
Gasleaksand generators
GASLEAKS: TampaElectric’s Carnsaidifyousmellrotteneggsor asulfur-likesmell,itcansignalagasleak. Carnurgesresidentstocallboth911andthe electriccompany.
TheFloridaDivisionofEmergency Managementrecommendsthatifonesmells somethinglikeagasleak, avoidusing“any sourcesofignition,suchascellphones,cigarettes,matches,flashlights,electronic devices,motorizedvehicles,lightswitches orlandlines.”
GENERATORS: Generatorsshouldbeoperated inwell-ventilatedareas,notinsidehomesor garages. Carnsaidportable generatorsshould bekeptawayfromdoors,windowsandairconditioningintakes. Generatorsshouldalso stay dry. Florida’s PoisonControlCenterrecommends keeping generators at least20feet away andinstallingbattery-operatedcarbonmonoxidedetectorsnearallsleepingareas.
Aversionofthisstorywaspreviouslypublished inthe TampaBayTimes.
