Hurricane Guide 2025

Sunday, June1, 2025 | Section X HurricaneHelene

(LUIS SANTANA | Times, 2024)

HurricaneHelene

(DIRK SHADD | Times, 2024)

2025

HurricaneMilton

(DIRK SHADD | Times, 2024)

HurricaneMilton

(LUIS SANTANA | Times, 2024)

Hurricane Prep Guide

2025 Hurricane Prep Guide

Residents walk on the Oldsmar Pier ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Helene. (JEFFEREE WOO | Times, 2024)

Get Times storm updates on all your devices

BY MEAGHAN HABUDA

A

Times Staff Writer

fter a historic hurricane season in which the Tampa Bay area faced its worst storms in a century, this year could bring another busy six months of tropical weather. Now’s the time to make sure you’re receiving the latest information from the Tampa Bay Times on all your mobile and desktop devices.

We plan to keep you up to date this hurricane season with our many digital platforms and products.

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turn on alerts from our app in your phone’s notification settings.

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Sunday, June 1, 2025 | Tampa Bay Times | 3X

2025 Hurricane Prep Guide

Here’s a look at the

BY MICHAELA MULLIGAN

T

Times Staff Writer

ime has marched on since the last hurricane season, and residents across Tampa Bay are still reckoning with the destruction from last year’s major storms.

But a new hurricane season has arrived, and across the board, experts expect it to be above normal.

A couple of key ingredients are driving the outlooks — namely warm sea-surface temperatures in areas where hurricanes form, and weather conditions that likely won’t be strong enough to tamp down storms.

“Everything is in place for an above-average season,” said Ken Graham, the director of the National Weather Service, during the unveiling of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s hurricane outlook.

“What do we always say? It only takes one.”

Here’s a look at the forecasts so far, and the ingredients behind them.

The outlooks, broken down

In late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its annual preseason forecast, which is largely

2025 hurricane season forecasts so far Hurricane experts agree: This year is likely to be an above-normal season.

considered the gold standard. Federal forecasters said they expect a 60% chance of above-normal activity.

The agency said it is anticipating up to 13 to 19 named storms, of which six to 10 could become hurricanes and three to five could ramp up into major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

A typical hurricane season consists of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to the agency.

The 2025 federal outlook aligns with other early-season forecasts released this spring.

Colorado State University, a school renowned for its hurricane research, said in April it also expects “above-normal” trop-

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ical activity this year. The same week, the Sarasota-based Climate Adaptation Center released a similar outlook.

University researchers said they expect 17 named storms, of which nine will become hurricanes and four will become major hurricanes.

Colorado State will update its outlook again later in June. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

“Forecasting the future is hard, whether you’re forecasting weather, whether you’re forecasting sporting events, political races, all that stuff,” Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at the university, said in April.

“But we also find that you can see a lot

by looking, basically by going back into the past,” he said. “There are clues in the atmosphere and ocean system that can tip us off as to whether the current hurricane season is going to have above- or below-normal activity.”

What’s behind the forecasts?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said its forecast was influenced by several factors, including the globe’s neutral conditions — which means the planet is experiencing neither a La Niña nor an El Niño — and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures.

According to a May outlook, the Climate Prediction Center anticipates the globe will remain in a neutral phase during the summer, with a greater than 50% chance of it persisting through August, September and October — peak hurricane season.

During the same time frame, La Niña, which typically leads the way for more hurricanes, has a little more than a 30% chance of taking over.

“We do know that during neutral events, we have about 2½ to three more named storms than you would during El Niño See FORECAST, 6X

Sunday, June 1, 2025 | Tampa Bay Times | 5X

Members of the Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office assist a resident in a community that was inundated by the historic flooding of the Alafia River after Hurricane Milton. Experts expect 2025 to be another above-average hurricane season.

(LUIS SANTANA | Times (2024)

FORECAST

continued from 4X events, so we’re allowing for that,” Matthew Rosencrans, a researcher who helped develop the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s forecast, said in May. Rosencrans said neutral conditions are a driving factor behind the above-normal forecast. The neutral phase won‘t be enough to impede the favorable storm conditions in the warm Atlantic.

In mid-May, sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content were slightly above average in areas where hurricanes form, according to Brian McNoldy, a University of Miami researcher.

Warm waters provide fuel for storms.

The ocean heat content “tells us more about the available energy in the upper layers of the ocean, not just the surface,” McNoldy said in an email to the Tampa Bay Times.

In a post on X in May, Ben Noll, a meteorologist who writes for The Washington Post, said that while temperatures in parts of the Atlantic are cooler than they were around the same time last year, areas like the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico were just as hot, if not hotter.

The record temperatures in 2024 led to the most aggressive early-season prediction in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s forecast history.

Where could the storms go?

In April, university researchers said there was a 51% chance — nearly a coin toss — that a major hurricane would make landfall somewhere along the U.S. coast this season.

For comparison, that number was 62% last season.

Zooming in closer, Colorado State said the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, has a 26% chance of experiencing a major hurricane, up from the typical 21% chance. Last year, forecasters said there

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was a 34% chance.

University researchers used federal data from past hurricane tracks to calculate the possibility of storms falling within 50 miles of states along the East and Gulf coasts this season.

In all instances, Florida had the highest probability of any state.

There is a 92% chance of a named storm falling within 50 miles of Florida, a 65% chance of a hurricane doing so, and a 35% chance of a major hurricane landing within that distance.

Forecast reliability

Last year was the National Hurricane Center’s most accurate forecasting season ever, which included Helene and Milton, two of Tampa Bay’s most devastating storms in recent history.

Over the last two decades, forecast errors have shrunk by up to 75%, according to a hurricane center report grading its 2024 performance.

Mass firings and early retirements have chipped away at federal weather agencies since the start of 2025. They have caused weather experts to question if the same high standard of hurricane forecasting will remain this year.

Some weather service stations across the country were without fully operational staff in May. In Tampa Bay, the local weather service was down by two meteorologists, faring better than other stations across the country.

Graham, the weather service director, said he did not anticipate that cuts to the agencies would impact hurricane forecasting this year compared to previous years.

“I’m going to end this with, we’re ready, we’re ready for this,” Graham said. “I need everyone in the country to be ready as well.”

Contact Michaela Mulligan at mmulligan@tampabay.com.

Follow @Michaela_Mull.

Sunday, June 1, 2025 | Tampa Bay Times | 7X

2025 Hurricane Prep Guide

Local resource directory HillsboroughCounty Hillsborough County emergency information: HCFLGov.net/StaySafe Phone: 813-272-5900 Hillsborough Storm Hotline: 833-HC-Storm(833-427-8676) Sign up for Hillsborough County Emergency Alerts: HCFLGov.net/HCFLAlert Find your evacuation zone and shelter: bit.ly/3N1c1kA Register for a special needs shelter: bit.ly/3wrhhr5 Disaster guide: tinyurl.com/ HillsGuide City of Tampa hurricane information: tampa.gov/ hurricane Sign up for Alert Tampa: tampa.gov/AlertTampa Hillsborough County Flood Zone viewer: bit.ly/3skY6Oi Facebook: facebook.com/ HillsboroughFL, facebook. com/CityofTampa X, formerly known as Twitter: @HillsboroughFL, @CityofTampa PinellasCounty Pinellas County emergency information, including looking up your evacuation zone, signing up for Alert Pinellas, downloading the Ready Pinellas app, finding shelter options and understanding storm surge: disaster.pinellas.gov To register for a special needs shelter: pinellas.gov/specialneeds.

Or call 727-464-3800 to update or request a form.

To prepare pets: pinellas.gov/petprep To look up your flood risk: floodmaps.pinellas.gov Pinellas County information line: 727-464-3000, TDD 727-464-4062 Pinellas County Emergency Management:727-464-3800 County information center (during emergencies only): 727-464-4333 Pinellas County live chat: bit.ly/PinellasChat Facebook for Pinellas County government: facebook.com/PinellasGov

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X for Pinellas County government: @PinellasGov X for Pinellas County Emergency Management: @PinellasEM YouTube for Pinellas County Government:@PinellasGov PascoCounty PascoCountyEmergency Management,includingevacuationzones:bit.ly/4aryRgu Phone: 727-847-2411 Live chat: MyPasco.net Disaster guide: tinyurl.com/ PasGuide25 Alert Pasco: mypas.co/AlertPasco If the county orders an evacuation, find shelters at: MyPasco.net Facebook: facebook.com/ PascoCounty X: @PascoCountyPIO Instagram: pascocountygov Nextdoor: bit.ly/4ano1Zc HernandoCounty Hernando County Emergency Management: hernandocounty.us/em Phone: 352-754-4083 Disaster guide: tinyurl.com/ HernandoGuide Find your evacuation zone: tbtim.es/hernandoevac Sign up for Alert Hernando: AlertHernando.org Facebook: facebook.com/ HernandoCountyEM X: @HernandoCo_EM Instagram: instagram.com/ hernandoeoc/ Poweroutagemaps Duke Energy: outagemap. duke-energy.com Tampa Electric: tampa electric.com/poweroutages Withlacoochee River Electric Cooperative: withlacoochee.outagemap.coop Getreadyforthestorm Federal Alliance for Safe Homes: flash.org Federal Emergency Management Agency: fema.gov FEMA Hazard Mitigation Assistance Grants: fema.gov/grants/mitigation Florida Division of Emergency Management: floridadisaster.org

Florida Special Needs Registry: bit.ly/3N8DHnY Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety: disastersafety.org MySafeFlorida.org: mysafeflorida.org National Hurricane Center storm tracker: nhc.noaa.gov Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council:tampabayprepares.org Floodlinks Federal Emergency Management Agency flood maps: bit.ly/3w2TYVN First Street Foundation’s Flood Factor: floodfactor.com Florida Division of Emergency Management: floridadisaster.org/ knowyourzone Pinellas County homebuyer special flood hazard areas information: bit.ly/3EZxZBU National Flood Insurance Program: floodsmart.gov Publicsafetyupdates Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office: facebook.com/HCSOSheriff, x.com/HCSOSheriff Tampa Police Department: facebook.com/TampaPD, x.com/TampaPD Pinellas County Sheriff’s Office: facebook.com/ pinellassheriff, x.com/SheriffPinellas St. Petersburg Police Department: facebook.com/StPetePD, x.com/StPetePD Pasco County Sheriff’s Office: facebook.com/pascosheriff, x.com/PascoSheriff Hernando County Sheriff’s Office: facebook.com/ HernandoSheriff, x.com/HernandoSheriff Florida Department of Transportation: facebook. com/MyFDOTTampa, x.com/MyFDOT_Tampa Liveroadconditions:fl511.com Live traffic cameras: tinyurl.com/FDOTCameras

Sunday, June 1, 2025 | Tampa Bay Times | 9X

2025 Hurricane Prep Guide

BY SHREYA VUTTALURU AND JACK PRATOR

S

Times Staff Writers

ince the turn of the century, major hurricanes hitting the U.S. have had one key feature in common.

Location.

The Gulf of Mexico coastline transformed into a bullseye for major storms, which have taken aim from Corpus Christi, Texas, to Marco Island and destroyed communities in their wake. Eighteen hurricanes reaching Category 3 strength or higher have made landfall along the continental U.S. since 1999.

All but one slammed into the Gulf Coast.

The pattern is even more stark since 2017: All 10 major hurricanes that have made landfall in the U.S. struck communities along the Gulf — including six in Florida.

Milton and Helene, occurring not even two weeks apart, were the latest in the streak that’s left Floridians collectively wondering why.

Hurricane experts say storms are growing more intense — and more quickly — largely because of warming seas. Tropical cyclones transform heat from the ocean surface into the movement of winds, so warmer waters allow storms to spin faster.

More hurricanes are slamming the Gulf Coast.

Is this the new normal?

Milton and Helene are the latest in an eight-year streak.

Record-hot waters could be playing a part.

The Tampa Bay Times reviewed nearly 600 storm tracks and corresponding sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean basin over the last four decades. Reporters relied on methods used by hurricane researchers to compare storms that underwent rapid intensification — which occurs when maximum wind speeds increase by 35 mph in a day — to ones that didn’t.

The analysis showed that warmer ocean temperatures increase the chances of stronger storms developing by 50%. Most tropical cyclones that have rapidly intensified over the past 40 years have encountered abnormally warm water, the Times found.

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In the Gulf, that phenomenon means hurricanes can easily become supercharged.

“Anything that gets loose in the Gulf is going to basically have double the damage potential it used to, compared to 100 years ago,” said Jeff Masters, a hurricane scientist formerly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

About 3 out of every 4 major hurricanes to form in the Atlantic or the Gulf of Mexico have traveled over record-hot waters. Half of all hurricanes to hit the Gulf Coast over the past 25 years were classified as major storms at landfall.

Weather patterns have also steered storms

toward the Gulf in recent years, but scientists are unsure whether those forces are natural, fueled by climate change or a mix of both.

Future storms could wreak even more havoc.

Sea-level rise is expected to compound storm surge, inundating communities further inland. Increasing rainfall — both from routine thunderstorms and tropical systems — will saturate the ground, creating an environment ripe for flash flooding.

Already, Gulf storms have been devastating, racking up hundreds of billions of dollars in damage and hundreds of lives lost.

In Florida alone, from Fort Myers Beach to Steinhatchee, flooded homes remain unlivable after Milton and Helene bore their one-two punch. The storms followed Hurricane Idalia, which ravaged the Big Bend in 2023 with a 10-foot storm surge. In the five-year span before that, Ian, Michael and Irma forever transformed stretches of the Gulf’s coastline and left dozens dead.

The very geography of the Gulf puts communities along its shore at increased risk from strengthening storms.

A hurricane forming in the Atlantic or Caribbean has more open water to See NORMAL, 12X

Sunday, June 1, 2025 | Tampa Bay Times | 11X

NORMAL

continued from 10X tread and fizzle out over. But once storms enter the Gulf ’s narrow mouth, they have nowhere to go but land.

The only hope is that somehow they’ll weaken.

Why are storms rapidly intensifying?

The Gulf is warming at twice the rate of all other global seas and fueling storms like never before.

An ocean heat wave that has decimated South Florida’s coral reefs and powered hyperactive hurricane seasons for at least two summers bears much of the blame for rapid intensification.

“We’re in uncharted territory with ocean temperatures,” said Sam Lillo, a hurricane expert and former research associate with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The heat waves are characterized by an ocean area having abnormally high sea-surface temperatures, hotter than 90% of historical readings taken at the same place. In the Gulf and the Atlantic, they’re a relatively new phenomenon. Widespread heat waves spanning hundreds of miles weren’t recorded until the ’90s but have become more common.

Since scientists began measuring ocean

heat waves, 2 out of every 3 rapidly intensifying storms went through one of the hot spots, according to the Times analysis of storm paths and water temperature maps from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The numbers over the last decade are even more dramatic: All but two storms that rapidly intensified traveled over the unusually warm waters.

In 2017, Hurricane Harvey strengthened from a tropical depression into a Category 4 hurricane just two days before it struck the Texas coast. The monster storm left thousands needing rescue from the rising floodwaters in Houston.

In 2022, Hurricane Ian’s wind speeds nearly doubled within roughly 22 hours before the storm transformed into a powerful hurricane and made landfall days later in Southwest Florida. The Category 4 storm became the costliest hurricane in state history.

Last year, Hurricane Milton’s winds increased by a staggering 90 mph as it crossed the Gulf ’s blistering waters just northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. It leaped from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours.

Across all the tropical systems that the Times analyzed, the average ocean temperature was approximately 2 degrees Fahrenheit higher in places where storms underwent

See NORMAL, 13X

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Over the last quarter-century, rapid intensification has clustered in the Gulf

More storms have rapidly intensified in the Gulf of Mexico’s waters, which have undergone significant warming. The map below shows the number of storms that rapidly intensified at a given location across the Atlantic basin.

Map generated using the Tropycal Python package. Storm tracks from NOAA’s International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship, from 1982 to 2024.

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continued from 12X rapid intensification than in areas where they didn’t. Scientists have found that waters even 1 degree above average could do significant harm to marine life — like coral bleaching.

Nearly half of all Atlantic Category 5 storms recorded over the last 40 years spawned in the last decade. Most weakened before making landfall, but every one of them underwent a rapid intensification cycle.

Four out of every 5 storms that reached Category 5 intensity encountered recordhot waters.

“It’s quite possible we’ve entered a new era of increased hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico,” said Masters, the hurricane scientist. “And certainly, we have reached a new era of activity for more intense storms.”

Experts say that this type of strengthening isn’t a new phenomenon. But if waters continue to get warmer, the chance of a storm crossing a heat wave during its lifetime increases.

“It’s a matter of shifting the windows of opportunity and widening them,” Lillo said.

While ocean temperatures are a primary source of hurricane fuel, it’s not clear whether they cause more hurricanes — only that they make powerful storms more likely.

Atlantic Ocean

Helene

Why are storms targeting the Gulf Coast?

A flurry of deadly and damaging hurricanes during the mid-2000s made Gulf storms like Katrina and Charley household names.

During those summers, water temperatures were close to normal, and the string of storms didn’t last as long.

Angry tropics calmed for about a decade, until 2017, when Harvey and Irma hit the Gulf Coast with ferocious intensity. That kicked off an eight-year streak of major Gulf landfalls — an unprecedented frequency.

The last similar period was between 1945 and 1950, when five major hurricanes hit South Florida.

“That’s the only comparable beating that we’ve taken in history,” Masters said. “And that wasn’t nearly as severe as what we endured the last eight years.”

Hurricane experts have theories about why recent landfalls have clustered along the Gulf.

Research has linked major weather patterns to tropical activity, which explains why hurricanes make landfall more often

Katrina Gulf of Mexico Category 3

Category 4

Milton Jeanne

Category 5

Gulf Coast hurricanes

Over the last 25 years,18 hurricanes made landfall in the continental United States as major storms after forming in the Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic Ocean. Only Hurricane Jeanne — a Category 3 storm — hit the east coast of Florida.

Track data for 2024 is preliminary. Only hurricanes that made landfall as a Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale were included.

Source: International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship Version 4r01

during some seasons, climatologists say.

For example, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is a natural climate pattern that influences water temperature and air pressure over the tropical Pacific Ocean. It has three phases that shift irregularly every two to seven years — El Niño, La Niña and a neutral phase transitioning between the two.

El Niño cycles typically bring warmer waters but damper storm formation and intensification. A La Niña has the opposite effect and is associated with less dry

air and less wind shear to tear down hurricane strength.

El Niño and La Niña patterns also influence wind flows that control hurricane paths across the Atlantic. The jet stream, one such wind pattern, shifts north during a La Niña and steers hurricanes toward U.S. landfall.

To the surprise of several scientists, the Atlantic basin has suffered under frequent and lengthy La Niña cycles in recent years — all but two of the last seven seasons.

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continued from 13X That’s created more favorable hurricane conditions and winds that push more storms toward the Gulf.

Adam Sobel, a climatologist with Columbia University, predicted eight years ago that El Niño phases, which are correlated with milder hurricane seasons, would dominate the next decade.

When the opposite happened, Sobel and other researchers couldn’t explain why.

“We’re in a period now of deep uncertainty,” he said.

It’s too soon to pin the unexpected shift on a warming world. Eight years is not enough time to draw definitive conclusions, according to scientists. But climate change will mimic the effects of strong La Niña phases and could make Gulf landfalls more likely, said Lillo, the former research associate with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“We don’t know how hurricane tracks are going to change with a changing climate,” Masters said. “Just that they will.”

Predicting where a storm will hit even days before landfall is hard enough for forecasters, so anticipating landfall patterns over a season or decade is nearly impossible, experts said.

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It’s unclear how long the Gulf streak could continue, but Masters said he isn’t convinced it signals a “new normal.” It wasn’t too long ago that Florida went a decade without a single hurricane strike, from 2006 to 2015, he said.

The Gulf may not remain a magnet. But another La Niña cycle could begin during this year’s hurricane season.

How will a warming climate affect the intensity of hurricanes?

Hurricanes are largely considered random events, but experts are confident that tropical cyclones will become more intense and wetter in a warmer world.

Climate change is already making water — the biggest killer during tropical systems — more deadly, said David Keelings, a University of Florida professor who researches climate extremes.

Storm surge is compounded by rising seas and hurricane wind speeds. Florida’s west coast is projected to see more than 1 foot of sea-level rise by 2050.

That’s a best-case scenario. And it could still put thousands more at risk of surge, including people who don’t live in evacuation zones.

During Hurricane Helene, nearly 1 in 10 properties in Pinellas County were set for serious flooding, the Times found. A future See NORMAL, 15X

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continued from 14X storm with similar surge potential — coupled with higher seas — would be even more devastating.

An increasingly warmer atmosphere traps more moisture, making hurricanes rainier.

That can lead to extensive inland flooding.

Keelings has documented an alarming trend over the last 50 years: Rainfall flooding from tropical cyclones is killing more people than wind and storm surge. In the past decade, rainfall flooding caused nearly 60% of all U.S. hurricane deaths, scientists with the National Hurricane Center similarly found.

Predicted surge levels serve as the basis for evacuation orders. But inland flash flooding can catch people off guard, inundating areas that don’t normally flood.

Recent storms provide tragic examples.

Hurricane Helene killed at least 198 people across the Carolinas and Georgia, largely from rainfall flooding. At least 20 people died in Florida, where surge crashed up and down the Gulf Coast as the storm made landfall in the Big Bend.

A wetter atmosphere also means rainfall is expected to continue to increase overall in Florida, not just during hurricanes, Keelings said. He looked at the frequency of extreme

rain events from 1950 through 2016 and found that Florida experienced an increase of about 25 more each year.

Soils that become more saturated by the end of these extreme rainy seasons could ripen conditions for dangerous flooding.

Milton’s hurricane-force winds ripped trees from already soggy soils, but its historic rain also flooded neighborhoods that had never experienced waters so high.

About 17 inches of rain drenched parts of Pinellas and Hillsborough counties in just five hours, submerging inland neighborhoods.

In Clearwater, residents were pulled from an apartment complex under 6 feet of water.

Milton’s heavy rains caused stormwater pumps to fail in some North Tampa neighborhoods, where lakes overflowed and crept inside homes.

The rain reached 1-in-1,000-year levels.

Masters, the former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientist, said expectations about how climate change will shape future hurricane seasons can be boiled down to a simple concept: “The extremes will get more extreme.”

Waters are getting hotter. Storms are getting wetter. Combined, experts say, that means hurricanes could continue to feel more routine — and also more formidable.

A version of this story was previously published in the Tampa Bay Times.

About the data TheTimesanalyzedstormpathsfromtheInternationalBestTrackArchiveforClimateStewardship, aNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministrationdatabase.Onlystormsthatreachedatleast tropicalstormstatusbetween1982andNovember2024wereincluded.

Coordinates reported in the tracks database were used to identify the sea surface temperature and ocean heat wave status for every storm. For every measured point in a storm’s track, the Times extracted the corresponding temperature and heat wave measurements.

Heat wave data was only available from1985 to November 2024. If a storm crossed paths with an area experiencing at least a “moderate” heat wave at any point during its lifetime, it was considered to have encountered a marine heat wave.

Rapidlyintensifyingstormswereidentifiedbycalculatingwindspeedchangeovera24-hourperiod.

Sunday, June 1, 2025 | Tampa Bay Times | 15X

2025 Hurricane Prep Guide Personal hurricane kit Build a bag with everything you’ll need in a backpack or two in case you have to evacuate.

• Air horns or whistles, to call for help • Assorted batteries, including for hearing aids • Backpacks, sturdy and waterproof • Can opener (manual, never electric) • Cash (no power or cell service means no credit cards or mobile payments) • Disinfecting wipes • Extra clothing and socks, including something warm in case it gets cold • First-aid kit • Hand sanitizer • Handheld lanterns • Headlamp and batteries • Identification, insurance cards, etc.

Home hurricane kit • Insect repellent • NOAA Weather Radio, battery or hand-crank • Nonprescription medication (anti-diarrheal, pain relievers, etc.)

• Pens and paper (don’t run down your phone battery by writing stuff down) • Personal wipes (antibacterial) • Phone charging cables, wall chargers • Portable power banks for smartphones and tablets • Rain jacket and pants/poncho • Rubber boots • Safety work gloves • Spare contacts and eyeglasses (also eyedrops) • Spare keys to homes, businesses and vehicles • Sturdy boots or shoes (and a backup pair)

• Sunscreen, lip balm • Sleeping bags • Toothbrushes, toothpaste, floss • Water purification tablets • Waterproof folders, for documents and photos • Waterproof matches, lighter

Ifyoulosepowerafterastorm,ifyourhome orneighborhoodgetshithardorifhelpis unabletoreachyouforawhile,thisgearwill makeyourwaitathomemoretolerable.

• Bleach (to clean up mold) •Carbonmonoxidedetector,battery-powered(forgas-poweredgenerators) • Can opener (manual, never electric) • Disinfecting wipes • Duct tape • Extra water (fill bathtubs for flushing) • Hand soap • Fan, battery-operated • Fire extinguisher

• First-aid kit • Garbage bags, plastic sheeting garbage and covering broken win • Insect repellent • Long-handle squeegees for scra mud out of a flooded home • Laser pointer, to attract help in t (Aiming one at an aircraft is a crim • Laundry detergent, bucket for w clothes • NOAA Weather Radio, battery o hand-crank • Paper cups, plates, plastic utens • Paper towels (better than spong

(Shutterstock p

Checklists for building all kinds of sto

BY CHRIS TISCH

I

Times Staff Writer

f you prepare for hurricane season by assembling a kit of supplies, chances are it was pretty picked apart after last year’s back-to-back hurricanes.

So it’s time to get it back in shape. Or, if you haven’t put together a kit before, last year might have provided a hard lesson on how difficult life can be without one.

The key is to get your kit put together early. Don’t let it be you who has to dash in a panic to the grocery store to fight over the last few gallons of water, granola bars or batteries left on the shelves as a hurricane looms off our coast.

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Nor should that be you waiting in a snaking, threehour line at the pump as the storm creeps closer so you can fill your gas cans.

A good hurricane kit has essentials that may keep you alive after a storm — such as medications, food and water — but also has items that will just make your life a little easier or more comfortable after a hurricane hits, such as a headlamp or a battery-operated fan.

Emergency officials say you should have seven days’ worth of nonperishable food and water per family member, including pets. That’s the length of time it could take for supplies to reach you after a bad hurricane. The stan-

dard rule is that each person will need at least 1 gallon of water per day. You also should keep at least 30 days’ worth of prescription medication on hand.

You don’t have to go out today and buy it all at once.

Assemble it over time, purchasing items like canned goods, water or trail mix that’s on sale and build it up.

Also plan to stow items that will make life easier or more comfortable.

If your power is out and you don’t have a generator, it will be pitch black at night. Sure, a flashlight will do for finding your way around. But if you want to be able to do complex tasks after dark, having a headlamp will

give you two free hold the flashlight And a batterytle bit of comfort scorches all of us s ing. Also, be sure keep that thing go Beyond that, h prepare, no matte The Florida Di (floridadisaster.or agement Agency (

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Vehicle hurricane kit there’s no water) • Personal wipes (antibacterial) • Portable air conditioner that can run off a generator • Portable camping stove • Portable generator (Never operate one indoors or near a door or window; beware of carbon monoxide poisoning.)

• Portable power banks for smartphones and tablets • Powerful flashlight • Rags, sponges and mops for cleanup • Safety work gloves • Spray paint (to paint address, insurance

photos)

orm kits

hands instead of one hand having to t. powered fan will give you just a litas Florida’s humid summer weather suddenly living without air conditionyou have a lot of backup batteries to oing. here are some checklists to help you er the situation. ivision of Emergency Management rg) and the Federal Emergency Man(ready.gov/kit) also offer checklists.

carrier on house) • Surge protectors or power strips • Tarps (for damaged roofs, walls and windows) • Termite bait and ant poison • Toilet paper • Tool kit • Toothbrushing pads (when water is in short supply) •Wrenchorpliers, toturnutilitieson andoff

In an emergency, your vehicle may be the safest place you can stay after a storm.

• Car shovel/pick • Cash (tow trucks and repair shops may not take electronic payment) • Disinfecting wipes • Duct tape • Emergency blankets • Fire extinguisher • First-aid kit • Fuse kit • Garbage bags, plastic sheeting (for garbage and covering broken windows) • Jumper cables

Children’s hurricane kit Children need a hurricane kit, too.

If you’re breastfeeding, experts say to keep a week’s worth of powdered formula on hand, just in case.

• Baby food • Baby wipes • Blankets, pillows • Books, games, playing cards, puzzles (Do not rely on electronic devices to entertain children.)

• Child’s insurance ID • Clean bottles • Diapers • Drawing paper, crayons, markers, pens • Dry, extra clothing and underwear • Formula • Kid-friendly canned goods

• Maps, map books, gazetteer (physical, not digital; must be up to date) • Multitool • Personal wipes (antibacterial) • Phone cables • Pocketknife • Portable air compressor • Portable jump starter • Power inverter, for charging devices • Safety work gloves • Spare tire (that actually works) • Tire jack • Tire sealant, puncture repair kit • Vehicle registration, proof of insurance • Water repellant

Pet hurricane kit •Medicalalertbracelet(ifneeded) • Nonprescription medication (anti-diarrheal, pain relievers, etc.)

• Personal wipes (antibacterial) • Sturdy shoes, rubber boots • Toothbrushes, toothpaste, floss • Toys (that can be damaged or lost)

Gettingyourpetmicrochippedwillhelpensureyou’llbereunitedwithFidoor Kittyifyou’reseparated.Keepyourmicrochipcontactinformationuptodate.

Makesureyourpetisalsowearingatagwithyourcurrentcontactinformation.Somesheltersacceptpets,butyou’llstillneedtopacktheirgear.The CDChasapetemergencykitchecklistatbit.ly/3GXFQVw. • Blanket • Pet wipes • Cat litter, newspaper, even paper • Portable food and water bowls towels • Puppy pads • Crate or sturdy carrier • Recent photos of pets (in case • Disposable litter trays for cats you’re separated) •Disposablebagsforpetcleanup • Service animal supplies • Extra collar with updated pet tag, • Treats contact information See CHECKLIST, 18X • Extra leashes • Medications (30-day supply) • Medical records • Muzzle • Pet first-aid kit • Pet food (seven-day supply) • Pet microchip (keep updated) • Pet toys

Tampa Bay Times | Sunday, June 1, 2025 | 17X

CHECKLIST

continued from 16X First-aid kit You can buy a first-aid kit or build one yourself.

• Allergy medication • Aloe • Antacid • Anti-diarrheal medication • Antihistamine cream • Antiseptic agent • Antiseptic wipes • Aspirin, pain-relievers • Burn relief spray • Cotton balls/swabs • Eyewash • First-aid manual • Hand sanitizer • Hypoallergenic adhesive tape • Instant cold compress • Latex gloves • Laxative • Moistened towelettes • Mosquito repellent • Petroleum jelly • Safety pins • Sewing needle • Scissors • Soap

18X | Tampa Bay Times | Sunday, June 1, 2025

• Splint • Sterile adhesive bandages (all sizes) • Sterile gauze pads • Sunscreen • Triangular bandages • Thermometer • Tweezers A version of this story was previously published in the Tampa Bay Times.

(Shutterstock photos)

2025 Hurricane Prep Guide

BY MAX CHESNES

T

Times Staff Writer

hirteen days brought us two storms and countless lessons.

Whether it was a clearer understanding of your home’s flood risk, a preferred hurricane snack or the importance of friends and family, Tampa Bay’s experience with Helene and Milton taught each of us something new.

Ahead of the start of the new hurricane season June 1, we asked Tampa Bay Times readers to share the most important lessons they learned last year. The responses, taken together, underscore a community that has emerged from the other side of repeated natural disasters wiser, stronger and more gracious to those around them. What lessons did you learn? Here’s what you had to say.

Fending off floods

Pay attention to surges and tides, don’t assume you are not going to flood if you are not directly on the water. — Patsy Stills, Clearwater Prepare for water in house by raising expensive furniture a minimum of 12" above floor. Seal toilets and shower drains to

Here are the lessons you learned from Tampa Bay’s historic 2024 hurricane season We asked readers for their most important lessons learned from hurricanes Helene and Milton. Here’s what they had to say. prevent septic backup into house. — Paul Hauck, Hillsborough County Keep your lithium batteries away from potential flood areas. Our e-bikes caught on fire and burned down our house. — Amber Valente, Treasure Island The big Lowe’s buckets that are $5/ piece are a cheap way to raise furniture. The big vacuum seal bags are great for storing clothes and keeping them dry.

If water got in and the walls are wet, start taking the Sheetrock out immediately two feet above the water line in order to prevent mold. — Kelly Kenson, Dunedin I elevated my A/C condenser after last year’s hurricane season. We live in a D evac-

uation zone and have never had to evacuate in 35 years. We had so much rain last year in three storms and so much standing water in the yard, the condenser was dangerously close to being flooded. — Mindy Bacon, Palm Harbor

Vulnerability to storms

We learned how incredibly easy it can be to be wiped off the grid, physically and digitally.

Between Helene and Milton there was no power, no water, no service, no gas, no places taking cards/cash only, food was scarce. — Kristen DeTroia, Riviera Bay, St. Petersburg I‘ve lived in Pinellas County 41 years, and the 2024 season reinforced that the storms are getting bigger and stronger than ever

before. Climate change is real! — Linda J. Smith, Pinellas County Wehadbeenfloodedtwicebefore,butnever expectedanythingthisserious—31inches ofbaywaterinourhome.Everythingruined.I knewclimatechangewasencroaching,but neverexpectedittobesodramaticsofast.

We are applying to Elevate Florida. We will also try to sell, but the market is bad. We are restoring, but our house would have sold for $800k (historic arts district, close to water and has a pool) before the hurricane. Now — maybe $350k? — Elizabeth Riggs, Gulfport Even though our house is outside of any flood zones, we still got two feet of water in the front yard and water almost got in the house. We’ll need to sandbag the doors in addition to putting the shutters up. — Nick Underwood, Central Oak Park, St. Pete I will not buy or rent first floor anymore. — Laynara De Oliveora, South Tampa People act like10ft elevation is a magical number even though it isn’t. I‘ve learned to live where I am I have to fully accept this as a part of life or move to higher ground. — Amanda White, St. Petersburg See LESSONS, 20X

Sunday, June 1, 2025 | Tampa Bay Times | 19X

LESSONS

Tips and tricks

Next year, all of the meat in the fridge and freezer will be removed prior to evacuation.

We lost power and all of the meat rotted, had to get a new fridge. That was the ...

WORST. The smell, oh my God. Never again. — Anonymous, Bartlett Park

continued from 19X The mental toll

The trauma and uncertainty of riding out the storm was something I never want to experience again. — Sharon Henry, Wellswood My biggest lesson was that I tried to keep working throughout. Afterwards, I realized that the stress of the storms had really impacted me. I realized later that I should have taken off some time to recover, but I tried to keep working and my work suffered because of the stress.

The storms took their toll and next time I will try to take time off to recover mentally. — Alexandra Furnari, Wesley Chapel

Ensuring my 3 weeks+ of my dog‘s refills are taken care of! ... It was very hard to fill it because clinics were understandably inundated with big-time emergencies ... It’s one of those things you really don’t think about when you’re evacuating despite your best efforts. — Lauren Fielder, Seminole Heights

I didn’t know that you can lose everything within a few hours and you can’t do anything about it. That’s what I learned from Helene and Milton. — Phil, St. Petersburg

Generators

The one thing that I think we need is to purchase a generator. Since we are in the highest area in Pinellas County, we didn’t flood. But we did lose power for a few days. — Gary Sirmons, St. Petersburg

A low-lying community in Clearwater, 2690 Apartments, was inundated by more than 6 feet of flooding from Hurricane Milton. (MAX CHESNES | Times)

If you are out looking for a new generator, consider a generator that takes propane instead of gasoline. Propane tanks are easier to store than liquid gasoline, making the fire danger less. — Luis Santana, Tampa Bay Times photojournalist

More gas reserves. We keep15 gallons of gas backup for our generator. We’re not in a flood zone and stay in place.15 gallons gives us 3 days and after that we need to replenish.

This year we have five 5-gallon containers and will have more in reserves. — Vaun Perez, Kenneth City

I will have a generator and will keep several extra cans of gas. — Bri Margolis, Southeast Seminole Heights

Have a dual or tri-fuel generator for when the gasoline runs out. And Xanax. — Bonnie Agan, St. Petersburg

Document what is in each room with a video. Send copies of all your insurance info, driver’s license, etc. to an outof-state contact or put in the cloud. — Lauri Ingham, Largo Do not trust store websites two days out from the storm making landfall. They are lying to you about having battery-powered lamps and flashlights. There are no battery-powered lamps or flashlights anywhere. — Shauna Muckle, Tampa Bay Times reporter We had cell service from Consumer Cellular, which use the AT&T network, which failed during the 4 days. My sister was visiting during the outage and has Verizon service, which never went down. — Larry Binder, Ruskin We chose to invest in tree-trimming and removal instead of storm shutters after what we saw last year. For homes that didn’t flood, it seems like trees were the overwhelming cause of damage. — Jay Preble, Safety Harbor 1. Take a weekend at the end of June to restock/purchase what you need for a hurricane so you’re not scrambling at the same time as everyone else.

2. Don’t let yourself eat all the non-perishables from No.1 as a snack before any actual storm hits. — Ana Underwood, Central Oak Park, St. Petersburg

Sticking together

I learned that my husband and I have an extremely solid relationship (that was never in doubt but those few weeks/ months just proved we could survive a zombie apocalypse!).

Friends and family were our true heroes — Jennifer Lumm, Dunedin I learned the value of people over things: that friends, family, and total strangers will help you move when you put a call for help on Facebook. People will choose to be kind, to help, to make a horrific situation that no one should have to go through less traumatic. — Deborah Kelley, Town ‘N Country The best way to survive a hurricane is to band together.

— Rufus del Valle, Terrace Park Contact Max Chesnes at mchesnes@tampabay.com.

Follow @MaxChesnes.

20X | Tampa Bay Times | Sunday, June 1, 2025

Sunday, June 1, 2025 | Tampa Bay Times | 21X

2025 Hurricane Prep Guide

Want to know what areas are flooding?

BY MICHAELA MULLIGAN

T

Times Staff Writer

he prospect of water pushing into homes and businesses is a heavy weight on the minds of Tampa Bay residents ahead of storms.

Despite last year’s devastating hurricane season, Tampa Bay has still not had a direct hit from a hurricane in over a century. Yet, 14 people drowned in the Tampa Bay area during Hurricane Helene from dangerous storm surge, and thousands of homes were damaged from coastal water or flooding rains.

While guidance from the National Hurricane Center and emergency managers is king ahead of storms, it’s helpful to have a few extra tools in the belt. One of those is watching real-time and future water levels.

A website from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration provides data on tide gauges across portions of coastal Tampa Bay. And another resource from the National Water Prediction Service shows where river flooding is possible.

The information, while far from the only piece in the larger puzzle that is hurricane preparation, gives residents another way to evaluate the risk to their homes and lives.

Here’s where to look Here’s how to access real-time flooding data.

To be clear: These tools are a supplement to personal decision-making (like planning to move your car to higher ground, or if you should start packing your car ahead of evacuations), but if officials tell you to evacuate, you need to leave.

We’ve gathered what to know about rising water and how to access a sampling of the data surrounding it.

What to know about tides

Let’s break down the basics.

Tides are influenced by the sun and moon.

When the tallest part of a wave reaches an area, that’s high tide. The opposite, the lowest, is low tide.

The difference in these heights is called a tidal range.

22X | Tampa Bay Times | Sunday, June 1, 2025

Weather patterns can also influence tides.

Strong wind and rain can lead to higher-than-expected tides, Virginia Dentler, an oceanographer for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, previously told the Tampa Bay Times.

Tampa Bay tends to see its highest tides of the year around late summer and early fall — coincidentally around peak hurricane season. Around this time, water levels grow by about 8 or 9 inches from what is typically recorded in winter and spring.

“When you have warmer waters, ocean water expands, and so it increases in elevation along the coast,” Gregory Dusek, a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, previously told the Times.

This is also around when “king tides,” a colloquial term that refers to higher-than-normal tides, can occur.

The flooding these high tides can cause has a few other names, like nuisance flooding or sunny-day flooding.

A king tide occurs when two ingredients come together — when the moon is closest to the Earth, combined with a new or full moon.

In Tampa Bay, there are just a few feet of difference between low and high tides, which is less than in other coastal parts of the country. That means whatever weather occurs that day will play a more important role in determining if a high tide will cause flooding here.

Flooding can also occur without a weather system, though it’s less common.

A king tide occurred while Hurricane Idalia was skirting the coast of Tampa Bay in 2023. Idalia scraped near the area just hours before a king tide. Had it arrived about six hours later, Idalia’s storm surge likely would have been about 2 feet higher.

Where to find tide data

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has a plethora of tidal stations across the country. In Tampa Bay, a See FLOODING, 24X

Sunday, June 1, 2025 | Tampa Bay Times | 23X

FLOODING

continued from 22X number of those sites are concentrated along the coastal waters of Pinellas and Hillsborough counties.

Because Tampa Bay has a port system, there are more tidal gauges in the surrounding waters, Dentler said. However, more-northern areas of Tampa Bay, like Pasco County and beyond, are without these gauges.

Dentler said tide stations are typically added onto preexisting structures, like Pier 60 on Clearwater Beach.

The administration’s Tides & Currents website links to its tide stations, which include information like water levels, wind speeds and observed barometric pressure.

When a storm is incoming, Dentler Houses are seen near the Alafia River as water creeps onto property. suggests looking to the administration’s Water levels along rivers and lakes often lag weeks or months behind Coastal Inundation Dashboard. coastal areas after storms due to natural hydrological processes.

“It’s our real-time product,” Dentler said.

(LUIS SANTANA | Times, 2019) Pinpoints on a map show where tide stations are located. Once a user clicks on their desired locaAccording to the U.S. Geological Survey, river forecasts tion, that station’s observed water levels pop up. are made by the National Water Prediction Service, which is Stations give real-time water level data and will show under the National Weather Service. when minor flooding (in yellow), moderate flooding (in red) The tool found at water.noaa.gov can show gauges for and major flooding (in pink) are possible. these sites. If you zoom in on Florida, you’ll find little dots The lines on the graph depict three possible water levels: lighting up the entire state.

Predicted water levels, observed water levels and forecasted A caveat: There are lots of buttons and drop-downs to water levels. play with on this site; water levels are one aspect.

The dark blue line shows water level predictions that On one of its most basic levels, clicking on the dots disoceanographers made a year in advance. The red line shows played on the site will show a water body’s current informawhere water levels currently are. The light blue line shows tion and a forecast, if available. the forecast guidance, which inputs external weather forces A dot corresponds with an observation, while a square such as high winds. corresponds with a forecast.

The forecast guidance line is the best bet in knowing how Each colored dot or square corresponds with a water high water levels may reach during a storm, Dentler said. gauge. For example: green (no flooding), yellow (action), All stations have different heights at which flooding can orange (minor flooding), red (moderate flooding) and puroccur. In St. Petersburg, for example, minor flooding can ple (major flooding). happen at a little less than 3 feet.

A newer version of the map was released last year that Most of the highest water levels recorded in the station’s has more bells and whistles, like a “flood inundation” sechistory occurred during hurricanes. tion. A user can also display this section under the original Of the top five highest water levels, three have occurred map, but it will warn that the information is experimental. since 2020.

In April 2024, a graphic found on the National Water Helene took the crown last year, dethroning a record Prediction Service product showed the Suwanee River at set 39 years before. During Helene, observed water levels Manatee Springs was in a minor flooding stage, and it was reached more than 2 feet higher than the record set during expected to fall to an action level in the following days.

Hurricane Elena in 1985.

The blue line showed observed water levels, while the dotted purple line showed the water level forecast.

Where to find river water levels Should the National Weather Service place an area under Just like coastal areas, inland residents of Florida are no a flood warning, the location will be highlighted in green. strangers to flooding.

Clicking on the area will display the full advisory.

When Hurricane Milton made landfall on Florida’s west coast last year, it was the third storm to do so in a few A recap of websites months. The waterlogged ground and Tampa Bay’s infra- • For information on tides: Tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov structure were unable to handle the record rainfall.

• To find the Coastal Inundation Dashboard: Rivers are a particular kind of beast. Water levels along Tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb. rivers and lakes often lag weeks or months behind coastal • For information on rivers: Water.noaa.gov. areas after storms due to natural hydrological processes.

Milton set records across Tampa Bay. The Hillsborough A version of this story was previously published in the Tampa Bay River rose above 38 feet, shattering a 2017 record. The Times.

Withlacoochee River crested at nearly 20 feet, the highest in Contact Michaela Mulligan at mmulligan@tampabay.com. nearly a century, nine days after the storm passed.

Follow @Michaela_Mull.

24X | Tampa Bay Times | Sunday, June 1, 2025

2025 Hurricane Prep Guide

BY MICHAELA MULLIGAN

I

Times Staff Writer

t’s once again hurricane season, when TV screens light up with colorful graphics of cones and swirly storms.

From year to year, the National Hurricane Center makes small tweaks to official forecasts and graphics. This year, for instance, the size of the cone will shrink by about 3% to 5%.

But last year, forecasters unveiled a big change: an experimental cone, which will stick around this season.

“It better highlighted the risk of coastal and inland impacts — so not just focused on watches and warnings along the coast but also what could occur inland,” said Robbie Berg, the warning coordination meteorologist for the hurricane center, during a webinar in April.

The experimental cone acts as a supplement, not a replacement, to the forecast cone we’re used to seeing, and is intended to help residents understand their risk of dangerous winds during storms.

We’ve gathered together changes coming to hurricane graphics this year and some friendly reminders ahead of what may be another busy season of tropical activity.

or higher — are possible within a specific Hurricane forecasts popping up again? mph area. They are issued generally within two days

Here’s how to read them Sorry, but it’s time for a refresher.

A refresher on watches and warnings

Ahead of a storm, the hurricane center issues watches and warnings to areas that could feel its force. These advisories act as a guide to allow residents to understand their risk.

But keeping them all straight, especially in times of emergency, is daunting.

Forecasters break down watches and warnings into three categories: Risk of storm surge, tropical storm-force winds and hurricane-force winds.

Storm surge is the biggest threat to people and property along coasts. In Pinellas County, 12 people drowned in Hurricane Helene‘s storm surge last year.

The hurricane center places an area under a storm surge watch when dangerous, life-threatening water inundation is possible. They are issued generally two days before rising waters could arrive.

A storm surge warning is issued about 36 hours before forecasters expect a life-threatening surge will occur.

Storm surge watches and warnings are not shown on a track forecast. Instead, they receive their own graphic.

While surge warnings showcase the threat of water, tropical storm and hurricane warnings display wind threats.

Forecasters issue a hurricane watch when hurricane conditions — wind speeds of 74

before tropical-storm-force winds could arrive.

When your home is under a watch, that’s when officials say you should begin storm preparations and review evacuation plans.

A hurricane warning is issued when hurricane conditions are expected within 36 hours or less, and it means it’s time to finish preparations and hunker down — or be ready to evacuate should local officials advise you to do so.

A tropical storm watch is issued when winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible in an area. A warning is issued when tropical-storm-force winds are expected. These watches and warnings follow the same timelines as hurricane watches and warnings.

Last year, the hurricane center gained more flexibility for issuing watches and warnings, and now forecasters can issue the warnings during any advisory — something that will continue this year.

Additionally, forecasters can issue “potential tropical cyclone” advisories up to three days in advance this season, instead of the previous two days in advance.

See READ, 26X

Sunday, June 1, 2025 | Tampa Bay Times | 25X

A National Hurricane Center graphic shows peak storm surge levels for Florida during Tropical Storm Helene as of 5 a.m. on Sept. 25. (National Hurricane Center)

Debris left over from Hurricane Helene is pictured on the side of a road near Bahia Beach in the aftermath of Hurricane Milton on Oct. 10 in Ruskin. (LUIS SANTANA | Times, 2024)

READ

The hurricane center has showcased what the graphic looks like by using the example of Hurricane Helene from Sept. 25, 2024. Much of the Tampa Bay area is in pink with blue slashes, indicating the area was under a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning.

continued from 25X A potential tropical cyclone is a disturbance that hasn’t become a tropical storm or hurricane yet, but could bring those conditions to land.

Last season, forecasters issued these advisories for nine systems.

“The key thing here to note is that it’s not tied solely to watches and warnings,” Berg said.

There could be a case when forecasters expect storm conditions within 72 hours and they issue a potential tropical cyclone advisory. However, watches and warnings won’t be issued until the 36-to-48-hour timeframe, Berg said.

The experimental cone is sticking around The main purpose of the cone is to have watches and warnings take precedence over the size and location of the storm cone.

Under the experimental cone, areas in a hurricane watch are denoted in pink, while a tropical storm watch area is in yellow. Communities swathed in red are under a hurricane warning, and a tropical storm warning area is in blue.

Based on feedback from last year, the hurricane center will add a symbol to its legend showcasing areas where hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings overlap. It will be represented by a pink area with blue slashes.

26X | Tampa Bay Times | Sunday, June 1, 2025

Why the ‘cone of uncertainty’ isn’t perfect The hurricane center is continuing to release its current hurricane cone graphic alongside the experimental one.

The center’s track forecast cone is vital in understanding the direction a storm is moving. But what’s important to remember is what the cone is not showing you.

The cone itself does not depict the size or

strength of a storm. Instead, it shows where the storm’s center is likely to be. Even that comes with caveats.

The cone is based on an average of the product’s last five years of errors. Forecasters expect a storm will remain within the cone roughly 60% to 70% of the time. That means the cone is far from foolproof.

“As we’ve preached time and time again, the cone is not a risk product,” Berg said. “It tells you nothing about the wind associated with the storm.

“You really have to focus on those watches and warnings.”

Contact Michaela Mulligan at mmulligan@tampabay.com.

Follow @Michaela_Mull.

2025 Hurricane Prep Guide

BY JACK PRATOR

M

Times Staff Writer

uch of Mark Fulkerson’s work starts after a catastrophic storm has passed and its rain has ceased.

As a chief engineer for the Southwest Florida Water Management District, he spends the weeks following a hurricane documenting high-water marks and measuring how closely the agency’s flood maps match up against real flooding.

When Milton made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane last October, it dropped near-record rainfall on the Tampa Bay area and swamped homes along the region’s many rivers and lakes.

Fulkerson found that many of the squiggles darting across flood maps his agency has spent decades developing lined up quite accurately with floodwaters reported during and after Milton’s deluge.

Still, the storm season of the century took many Tampa Bay residents by surprise.

“I hope it’s the flood event of my career,” Fulkerson said. “I hope we don’t have another one like it.”

He said the agency’s job is to manage water, but Swiftmud can’t entirely control flooding.

What to know about

river flooding Hurricane Milton pushed the region’s rivers to their limits.

Here’s how you can keep tabs on water levels this season.

“We can’t stop it from happening. But there are things we can do to help manage flood risk — by doing the modeling we do — to alert people, by trying to work with the cities and counties on projects where they make sense,” Fulkerson said. “You get rain like Milton, there’s no way you’re going to stop that water.”

The onus is on homeowners and other residents to know the boundaries of nearby flood zones and stay up to date on local warnings, he added.

Here are some tips that water managers, researchers and forecasters say could help everyone prepare for future river floods:

Why was Milton’s rain so catastrophic?

Even days after Milton made landfall, many rivers and creeks around the region still hadn’t crested. The delayed flooding surprised residents who thought they had been spared from devastating floodwaters, only to have the rain catch up to them later.

Water levels along rivers and lakes often lag weeks or months behind other coastal and inland areas after powerful storms due to natural hydrological processes. Geography, like the elevation around a home and the depth and shape of a river, dictates how and when a water body will flood following extreme rain.

Milton set records for river heights in the Tampa Bay area. At its peak, the Hillsborough River rose above 38 feet and shattered a 2017 record by nearly 4 feet, according to a water gauge at Morris Bridge.

The Withlacoochee River crested at 19.7 feet nine days after Milton made landfall, according to a water gauge near its headwaters. It was the highest water level recorded there in 90 years.

The heaviest of Milton’s rain fell in the Green Swamp — vast wetlands stretching across Polk, Lake, Sumter, Hernando and Pasco counties that serve as the headwaters for four major waterways: the Withlacoochee, Hillsborough, Ocklawaha and Peace rivers.

The upstream deluge carried floodwaters down the rivers and flooded communities.

Cypress Creek, a major tributary of the Hillsborough River, crested at a record high of 15 feet four days after landfall. Water levels stayed high for weeks, shocking longtime Pasco residents.

The Cypress Creek wetland basin, which serves as the drain-off for the surrounding developments, was overwhelmed See RIVERS, 28X

Sunday, June 1, 2025 | Tampa Bay Times | 27X

RIVERS

continued from 27X by excessive rainwater from Milton, Fulkerson said. Saturated wetlands in Big Cypress Swamp caused flooding in Land O’ Lakes and Wesley Chapel.

About 25% of the water management district’s jurisdiction is made up of wetlands, Fulkerson said. They absorb and store rainwater. Levels often fluctuate during Florida‘s wet and dry seasons. When those wetlands fill up, run-off has to find an alternate path.

Water has three places to go. It can soak into the ground, filling the aquifer — which serves as Florida‘s main drinking water supply — and raising the water table. Runoff might drain to rivers that rise and cause flooding along its banks. Or water flows across the land and collects into a low-lying area called a closed basin.

“It’s got nowhere to drain after that,” Fulkerson said.

After three months of above-average rain last summer, the region’s ground was saturated with water. Milton’s deluge pushed watersheds to their brink.

Where to check river levels

The National Water Prediction Service provides a tool that identifies water levels in rivers across the country. If you zoom in on Florida, you’ll find little dots lighting up the entire state.

Each dot color represents the river’s flood stage: Green (no flooding), yellow (action), orange (minor flooding), red (moderate flooding) and purple (major flooding).

Like tidal gauges that measure coastal water levels, each river has different heights at which flooding can occur.

The tool also provides a forecast for future river heights: A blue line shows observed water levels, while a dotted purple line shows the water level forecast.

But river flooding is difficult to predict, according to researchers.

“Trying to predict how high a river will get, there are different aspects that kind of can complicate some of those predictions,” said Katherine Serafin, a coastal geographer and assistant professor at the University of Florida.

Where exactly the rain will fall, its timing, how many bands of rain a tropical system will bring and how fast the rain will move over land are estimated in order to forecast flood risks.

The river’s depth is often an overlooked factor, Serafin said. Submerged debris from past storms may fill up a riverbed, causing it to rise quicker than expected.

The river gauge site also displays current flood warnings imposed by the National Weather Service — shown on a tab under

28X | Tampa Bay Times | Sunday, June 1, 2025

the specific river gauge — laying out hazards and further flooding details.

How to know your flood risk

Original floodplain maps used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency to set flood insurance rates were first developed in the 1980s, Fulkerson said. Development in Florida has boomed in the decades since, making many of those calculations outdated.

One of Swiftmud’s longest-running projects has been to update them: Over the past 25 years, the agency has made new renderings of flood maps for more than 130 watersheds, making up 75% of the district.

“The hope is that residents are aware when they buy property, they know what they’re getting,” Fulkerson said.

The flood maps take into account factors like elevation, soil type and land use.

Driven by gravity, water drains to the lowest point it can reach and pools there. Sandy soils drain more quickly than dense clay.

Knowing what the ground beneath and the topography around your home are like can help evaluate flood risk.

Fulkerson said previous flooding is another big indicator of risk.

“A lot of areas that we saw flooded this past year, they flooded in the past,” he said. “Whether we lived here or not, it’s happened.”

An influx of new Floridians moving to the area has also contributed to a lack of flood awareness.

“One thing that I heard from a lot of the residents is just not having any clue it could happen,” he said. “You lose a lot of that historical knowledge, too, when people sell or people pass on.”

How high are lakes and rivers now?

Driving around the region, even six months after Milton, Fulkerson still sees pockets of standing water in places where it normally wouldn’t pool.

“Anytime you have a big flood one year, depending on how much rain you get between then and the next rainy season, we could be starting a lot higher and have less room to breathe before the next hurricane season,” he said.

But below-average rainfall at the start of the year has balanced out the region’s saturation.

Tampa Bay’s rivers have long flushed out Milton’s rain to open seas. Some lakes remain slightly elevated. Aquifer levels are high, but steadily dropping back to normal.

And Fulkerson said there’s still time for water stores to deplete before hurricane season again brings the threat of flooding.

“For the most part, we seem to be recovering,” Fulkerson said.

Contact Jack Prator at jprator@tampabay.com.

2025 Hurricane Prep Guide

Resources for seniors, others needing

hurricane evacuation help

BY EMILY L. MAHONEY

A

Times Staff Writer

mong the Tampa Bay locals who were killed during last year’s historic hurricane season, many shared a tragic trait in common: They were over 60 years old. Most lived in mandatory evacuation zones but didn’t leave. Some also had mobility issues, such as needing walkers to get around.

Jeff Johnson, the state director for AARP Florida, which advocates for people over the age of 50, said that in addition to physical hurdles, older adults also may have a harder time, emotionally, leaving their homes and not knowing what it’ll look like when they come back. After living somewhere for decades, possibly filled with items that represent friends and family who have passed away, the process can be difficult.

But it’s important to heed mandatory evacuation calls.

Johnson noted that even if residents think they’re safe from storm surge on an upper floor of a condo high-rise, they need to consider what it would be like to live there without any power or water for days, including if the elevators go out in tall buildings. Some people of all ages might need help evacuating, too, because they lack transportation or the financial means to book a hotel room.

For people who need help evacuating ahead of a hurricane, there are resources available.

Residents who rely on medication, oxygen or power can add their names to the state’s special needs registry before a hurricane looms. That registry, run by the Florida Department of Health in coordination with county governments, is at snr.flhealthresponse.com.

Pinellas County

County officials encourage residents with medical needs, who lack transportation, or need help walking or getting out of bed to register for the county’s special needs program. Residents can ask their home health care provider about registering or maydo so online at pinellas. gov/special-needs. You can also request a form by calling Pinellas County Emergency Management at 727-464-3800.

Hillsborough County

Special needs residents should register at the state health department website above, according to county officials. The Hillsborough County Hurricane Evacuation Assessment Tool at hcfl. gov/residents/stay-safe includes real-time shelter locations, evacuation zones and HART bus evacuation routes. For assistance, the county’s main information line is 813-272-5900. Residents can also call the storm information line when emergency staff are activated: 833-427-8676.

Pasco County

Residents with special needs can find information on registering, plus a short video on how to register, at pascocountyfl.net/services/emergency_management/special_needs.php.

Kevin Guthrie, the director of Florida’s Division of Emergency Management, said residents can also call 800-729-3413 with questions on evacuation orders or for assistance getting out.

Times staff writer Justin Garcia and Times/Herald staff writer Romy Ellenbogen contributed to this report.

Contact Emily L. Mahoney at emahoney@tampabay.com. Follow @mahoneysthename.

Sunday, June 1, 2025 | Tampa Bay Times | 29X

2025 Hurricane Prep Guide

How to handle

The end result could be dislodging not only the branch, causing it to fall, but also creating a new set of problems for the structure it landed on.

“You can further damage something that might have been superficial, but now there’s a hole,” Heredia said. “There’s absolutely ways to realize further damage by trying to clean something up.”

fires, tree limbs and other hazards after a hurricane

S

By Times Staff Writers

ome of the most dangerous hurricane hazards occur after a storm has passed.

Standing water, fires and downed power lines are just a few of the perils Tampa Bay residents need to be aware of as they emerge from or return to their homes.

Here are some tips to protect yourself.

Avoiding fires/electrical issues

Water and electricity do not mix, Tampa Electric spokesperson Mary Lou Carn previously told the Tampa Bay Times. Here are a few tips to avoid electrical fires.

VEHICLE FIRES: Over a three-day period as Helene passed Florida in September, at least 93 vehicles caught fire in Pinellas County. In Tampa, a fire broke out at the Tesla dealership on Florida Avenue, according to a Hillsborough County spokesperson. The fire occurred in a battery pack removed from the vehicle, and the vehicle had been subjected to floodwaters.

“Lithium-ion batteries, such as those in electric vehicles, including golf carts and electric bikes, pose a fire risk after being exposed to saltwater,” Pinellas spokesperson Kelsey Grentzer wrote in a statement last year.

Residents with electric vehicles, e-bikes or golf carts are asked to park them in areas where they will not be exposed to saltwater, and people should avoid driving through standing water.

Any lithium-ion battery that has been exposed to water should not be thrown away in normal trash. Battery manufacturers have specific disposal instructions.

Electric vehicles exposed to saltwater should be moved at least 50 feet away from homes, as they run the risk of causing fires in the days following the initial exposure.

The vehicles may need to be towed to a dealership after the storm.

DOWNED POWER LINES: Downed power lines can carry electric currents strong enough to cause death. Driving over or touching a downed power line — or things that touch a downed power line — could lead to serious injury or death.

You should assume that all downed lines are live.

BREAKERS/ELECTROCUTION: Carn told the Times last year that residents evacuating — particularly those in flood zones — should turn off their main breaker. Carn also said it’s essential to make sure hands are dry and not to be standing in any water when touching any electrical item. Florida Power

30X | Tampa Bay Times | Sunday, June 1, 2025

A Tesla that caught fire is shown on Pass-a-Grille Way at 23rd Avenue in St. Pete Beach after Hurricane Helene.

(DIRK SHADD | Times, 2024)

and Light Company recommends turning off breaker switches one by one and turning them back on one by one after power is restored. FPL also warns against touching the electric meter.

Dealing with home damage

TREE LIMBS: If tree limbs land on your

house or vehicle during a storm, certified arborist Jacob Heredia of Lumber Jake’s Tree Service advises against the urge to try to remove them yourself.

Instead, he told the Times last year, people should take pictures of the destruction from the ground and then call someone who regularly deals with tree removals.

It could prevent both injuries and additional damages.

“Branches will often crack, and there’s lots and lots of pressure we can’t see,” Heredia said. “If you disrupt the pressure ... you can have that piece roll or disconnect from the tree.”

Gas leaks and generators

GAS LEAKS: Tampa Electric’s Carn said if you smell rotten eggs or a sulfur-like smell, it can signal a gas leak.

Carn urges residents to call both 911 and the electric company.

The Florida Division of Emergency Management recommends that if one smells something like a gas leak, avoid using “any sources of ignition, such as cell phones, cigarettes, matches, flashlights, electronic devices, motorized vehicles, light switches or landlines.”

GENERATORS: Generators should be operated in well-ventilated areas, not inside homes or garages. Carn said portable generators should be kept away from doors, windows and air conditioning intakes. Generators should also stay dry. Florida’s Poison Control Center recommends keeping generators at least 20 feet away and installing battery-operated carbon monoxide detectors near all sleeping areas.

A version of this story was previously published in the Tampa Bay Times.

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32X | Tampa Bay Times | Sunday, June 1, 2025