06132016 business

MONDAY, JUNE 13, 2016

business@tribunemedia.net

‘Little faith’ on $150m GFS deficit projection

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE Opposition’s deputy leader has “very little faith” the Government will hit its projected $150 million deficit target for 20152016, following the $184 million ‘revision’ to the prior fiscal year.

K P Turnquest said Prime Minister Perry Christie had performed “a 180 degree turn” on the GFS deficit outcome for the 2014-2015 fiscal year in his recent Budget speech.

He was speaking after Tribune Business’s assessment of the last two Budget speeches exposed a major, negative revision that resulted in the 2014-2015 fiscal deficit coming in much

$184m revision ‘swing’ for 20142015 Turnquest: PM did ‘180 degree turn’ IMF predicts higher deficits than Gov’t higher than the Government’s original projections.

Mr Christie, in his May 2015 Budget communication, told Parliament: “I now turn to fiscal performance in the 2014-2015 fiscal year which, I am pleased to report, is now projected to be better than we had expected at the time of the

last Budget Communication.

“As a result, the GFS deficit this fiscal year is now estimated at a level of $197 million, down $89 million from the $286 million forecast.

“As such, the deficit is now expected to amount to 2.3 per cent of GDP, as opposed to the forecasted level of 3.2 per cent.”

Mr Christie then touted the projected 2014-2015 fiscal performance as the best for seven years, since the 2007-2008 Budget that predated the global recession.

But, fast forward to May 2016, and Mr Christie’s Budget presentation disclosed a negative $184 million ‘swing’ from the 20142015 outcome projection he See PG B8

Fund paints bleak economic picture Can only see ‘downside risks’ for nation Trapped in low growth, high joblessness

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

K P TURNQUEST

Minister in compliance, Ex-Chamber chairman: business ease ‘balance’ ‘Writing’s on the wall’

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

‘Discussing’ tax enforce changes with Finance

A CABINET minister is discussing with the Ministry of Finance how to “create a better balance” between its tax compliance crackdown and improving the ‘ease of doing business’.

Khaalis Rolle told Tribune Business he acted as an “internal lobbyist on a daily and hourly basis” within the Government for the private sector, acknowledging business concerns over proposed tax enforcement reforms.

The Minister of State for Investments confirmed that he and his Bahamas Investment Authority (BIA) team were having talks with the Ministry of Finance, amid fears that the latter’s initiatives amounted to regulatory ‘overkill’.

“We’re having discussions now with the Ministry of Finance, the investments team, to ensure we create some balance,” Mr Rolle told Tribune Business.

“We’ve heard some of the complaints, and the Chamber [of See PG B7

Rolle an ‘internal lobbyist’ in Gov’t for business BIA launches app, databse for investor interact

KHAALIS ROLLE

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE Government has “acted on less than 10 per cent” of private sector recommendations submitted to it two years ago, an exChamber chair adding: “The writing’s on the wall.”

Robert Myers told Tribune Business that the Christie administration appeared to have adopted very little of what the Coalition for Responsible Taxation (CRT) had proposed in the run-up to Value-Added Tax (VAT) implementation, apart from its suggestions on the tax itself.

Speaking before the International Monetary Fund (IMF) delivered its latest pessimistic assessment on the Bahamas last week, he said it was “essential” for this nation to boost its flagging GDP growth numbers to avoid a currency devaluation.

Mr Myers added that See PG B6

IMF: Bahamas growth potential down 50% since millennium turn

Gov’t acts ‘on less than 10%’ of proposals Greater growth ‘essential’ to avoid devalue Poor governance undermines fiscal stability

ROBERT MYERS

THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the Bahamas’ economic growth potential has fallen by 50 per cent since the turn of the century, with no sign of any immediate rebound.

The Fund painted an extremely bleak picture of the Bahamas’ medium term economic prospects in its latest assessment, finding that the only way this nation can go is likely further down - not up.

The assessment, published on Friday, suggested the Bahamas’ ‘new norm’ is a low-growth economy, plagued by “double digit” unemployment and structural impediments to improved competitiveness.

The only ‘positive’ coming from the IMF was its continued praise for the relatively successful Value-Added Tax (VAT) implementation, which it acknowledged had contributed to the Bahamian economy’s contraction.

The latest assessment, which concludes the Fund’s 2016 Article IV consultation with the Bahamas, brought its economic growth expectations into line with those given by the Department of Statistics and the Government in the recent 2016-2017 Budget.

The IMF could only identify “downside risks” facing the Bahamas, and referred to a “sizeable output gap” to emphasise how this nation continues to perform below its economic growth potential.

“Staff estimates point to potential growth between 1 and 1.5 per cent over the medium-term, down from close to 3 per cent at the start of the century,” the Fund’s executive board said.

“This outlook is subject to mainly downside risks, calling for continued fiscal consolidation to rebuild fiscal and external policy buffers and boosting investor confidence, as well as a decisive shift towards implementation of structural reforms to improve competitiveness, See PG B9

‘Limited confidence’ in Budgetary figures

By NEIL HARTNELL Tribune Business Editor nhartnell@tribunemedia.net THE Bahamas can only have “limited confidence” in the accuracy of the Government’s Budget numbers, the Chamber chairman is warning, because they remain ‘provisional’ for so long.

Gowon Bowe told Tribune Business that it typically took two to three years before any fiscal year’s performance was finalised, with the figures subject to considerable gyrations during that period.

A prime example is the 2014-2015 fiscal year, whose GFS deficit has undergone a considerable $184 million ‘negative’ revision during the space of 12 months (see other article on Page 1B).

The Government in its May 2015 Budget address, which occurred one month before fiscal year-end, that it was on track to achieve a $197 million deficit for the 12-month period - a sum equivalent to 2.3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).

But, in his 2016-2017 Budget communication, Prime Minister Perry Christie disclosed that the GFS deficit for 2014-2015 had been subject to a major upward revision.

The Government is now projecting it will come in at $381 million, equivalent to 4.4 per cent of GDP, and almost $100 million higher than the 2014-2015 target of $286 million or 3.2 per cent

Numbers remain ‘provisional’ for too long Subjected to constant changes post year-end And absence of explanations ‘worrisome’ of GDP. Such major swings threaten to undermine confidence in the accuracy See PG B9

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PAGE 2, Monday, June 13, 2016

THE TRIBUNE

Bahamas ‘can’t depend on location any longer’

By NATARIO McKENZIE

Urged to boost tourism costs, efficiency

Tribune Business Reporter

nmckenzie@tribunemedia.net THE Bahamas must work immediately to improve the cost and efficiency of its tourism product, the Opposition’s finance spokesman warning: “No longer can we depend on our location as a draw”.

K.Peter Turnquest was speaking after the US Department of Transportation approved six domestic airlines to begin flights to Cuba from Miami, Chicago, Fort Lauderdale, Minneapolis and St Paul this fall.

“I believe this will have an immediate effect on us.

In the short term, I believe we will see the fall-out in our arrival statistics, both in sea and land arrivals, as low cost and curiosity will be the order of the day,” said Mr Turnquest.

“This may be tapered by

Cuban competitive threat looming large lack of accommodations onshore, but we have to watch our cruise business.

“Ultimately, access and cost will have an affect. The two-destination concept promoted by the Minister has been tried and failed, with Orlando being the previous attempt. We have to immediately work on our product, and to improve our efficiency and cost. No longer can we depend on location as a draw.”

Back in February, the US

and Cuba yesterday signed an agreement authorising daily US commercial flights to the communist-ruled island for the first time in more than five decades.

The deal allows up to 110 daily flights to 10 destinations in Cuba, with about 20 of them to the capital, Havana.

The US-Cuba arrangement will allow Americans to travel direct to Cuba rather than transit through the Bahamas, and use airlines such as Bahamasair.

Tourism Minister, Obie Wilchcombe, told this newspaper previously that he believes there is enough tourism business to go around.

He added that the Government was working on a ‘two-destination’ travel arrangement that would see visitors to Cuba also travel to the Bahamas.

Gov’t names new Develop Bank chief THE Government has named Benjamin Rahming as the Bahamas Development Bank’s (BDB) managing director with effect from April 4.

Mr Rahming previously worked at the BDB from the mid-1980s through early 1990s.

He then served as consultant/general manager of the Bahamas Agricultural & Industrial Corporation (BAIC) for 10 years.

Prior to his BDB appointment, he held the position of corporate office general manager for the Bahamas Agriculture & Marine Science Institute (BAMSI) from July 2014.

Mr Rahming is a business management graduate of Oklahoma City University, with training in agriculture (Caribbean Development Bank); small industry and entrepreneur development (Dublin, Ireland); project evaluation (University of Pittsburgh); and procurement and contract negotiation (Caribbean Development Bank).

He is a former executive director on the Board of the Caribbean Development Bank for the Bahamas.

Mr. Rahming has also been an advisory committee member on cooperative development and small business development for the Ministry of Youth.

BENJAMIN RAHMING

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THE TRIBUNE

Monday, June 13, 2016, PAGE 3

Gov’t urged: ‘Set tone’ on renewable energy

By NATARIO McKENZIE

Tribune Business Reporter

nmckenzie@tribunemedia.net THE Government has been urged to “set the tone” for the renewable energy sector, with one provider warning the Bahamas is “way behind the eight ball” with less than 1 per cent penetration.

Guilden Gilbert, vicepresident of Alternative Power Sources (APS) Bahamas, told Tribune Business this nation lagged other countries in the Caribbean on renewable energy penetration.

“I would image that the penetration is still below 1 per cent; way below 1 per cent,” he said. “Jamaica seems to be leading the charge when it comes to renewables on the retail level,

Bahamas ‘way behind eight ball’ Less than 1% penetration for instance, home owners or commercial use.

“The Caribbean islands for the most part have embraced the technology. The Bahamas still seems to be way behind the eight ball.

We are not getting any policy decisions.”

Mr Gilbert added: “In Bermuda, for example, the government sets the tone for renewables and tells the utility how it is to operate when it comes to renewables.

“So, rather than have the

utility dictate to the government, the government is dictating to the utility, which in my view is how it should be.

“You want to encourage green technology and reduce your carbon footprint. Utilities, especially in the region, are not focused on reducing their carbon footprint. We have to start thinking about reducing our carbon footprint,” he continued.

“The Government writes and presents legislation. I agree that there should be consultation from the private sector, but if there is going to be new legislation on renewables all stakeholders should be involved in that process. It shouldn’t just be the BEC manager.

All stakeholders need to be involved including the

Bahamas targets culinary tourism THE Bahamas is looking to capitalise on culinary events to boost its tourism numbers, senior officials have revealed.

Joy Jibrilu, the Ministry of Tourism’s director-general, unveiled the strategy as she attended the Taste of the Caribbean – a culinary art contest featuring the best chefs in the region.

The event, which was held from June 6-10 in Miami, saw a strong performance from the Bahamas National Culinary Team, who left the competition with a gold medal finish.

After tasting mouth-watering delights at the Taste of the Islands event, Ms Jibrilu said she hopes to mimic this kind of competition in the Bahamas.

“It would be an amazing opportunity,” she added.

“We know that in tourism people are looking for so much more now. Culinary tourism is a major component for that. More than 700 people have paid to come to this event, and the Bahamas is very, very popular.

“So that lets us know that we have something unique.

It just makes sense to bring this kind of competition on our soil.”

The Bahamas has also hosted Taste of the Bahamas, which is a culinary festival with dishes from various islands.

Ms Jibrilu said this is an example of how the Bahamas can develop culinary tourism.

“I think competition at home is healthy and it inspires creativity. If you’ve

got a chef from Grand Bahama, then those out of San Salvador, Eleuthera and Long Island will want to create incredible dishes,” she said.

The Caribbean Tourism Organisation (CTO) recently reported that the Bahamas leads the region in food and beverage experiences such as tours.

In terms of culinary overall, the Bahamas is fourth in the Caribbean.

renewable energy companies.”

Tribune Business revealed last November how the Government had temporarily suspended the renewable energy self-generation (RESG) programme to ensure it ‘dovetailed’ with wider energy sector reforms, including PowerSecure’s takeover of Bahamas Power & Light’s (BPL) management.

PowerSecure executives earlier this year said solar energy would be integrated into its generation

solutions, with the Family Islands likely to prove especially fertile ground.

PowerSecure signed a five-year management services agreement with the Government to run BPL, the Bahamas Electricity Corporation’s (BEC) newly-created operating subsidiary, on February 9.

Then, less than three weeks’ later, PowerSecure announced that the Atlanta-based utility giant, Southern Company, would acquire it for $431 million, with PowerSecure becom-

ing a wholly-owned subsidiary.

Pam Hill, who most recently served as vice-president of retail sales support at Exelon Corporation, a Fortune 150 energy company headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, has now been appointed as BPL chief executive.

While a press conference was scheduled several weeks ago to unveil BPL’s business plan, that was ultimately postponed and the plan has not yet been made public.

PAGE 4, Monday, June 13, 2016

THE TRIBUNE

Bahamian attorney stands for International Bar post

DR PETER D MAYNARD

BAHAMIAN attorney, Dr Peter D. Maynard, is standing as a candidate for vice-president of the International Bar Association, which represents more than 80,000 lawyers and 200 Bar Associations.

Dr Maynard presently heads the Law Department at the College of the Bahamas (COB), and has been a part of the IBA for 30-plus

years.

He has served as its chair of the Working Group on poverty, empowerment and the rule of law; chair and vic-chair of the professional and public interest division; assistant secretary treasurer; chairman of the access to justice committee, and deputy secretary heneral for the Caribbean. He was also a member of the insolvency committee, arbitra-

tion committee and the litigation committee.

“My vision for the IBA,” Dr Maynard said, “is to make a quantum leap in fulfilling its potential to contribute to world peace and progress. Its greatness will be determined by the positive difference it makes in the lives of the people of the world that we serve”.

Dr Maynard is also a co-

editor of the book ‘Poverty, Justice and Rule of Law’, which was prepared in 2013 for the IBA and downloadable free of charge on the IBA’s website.

He is currently a member of the asset tracing and recovery committee of the anti-corruption committee.

Elections will be held in September 2016 in Washington DC.

Bank assists local residents SOME 175 Citigroup staff in Nassau joined their global colleagues in aiding local communities during the bank’s 11th annual Global Community Day on Saturday.l Citi Bahamas staff worked to revitalise and beautify Yellow Elder Park, painting its perimeter wall, planting trees and flowers, repairing and painting the gazebo, and

undertaking other upgrades and improvements.

Margaret Butler, Citi’s country officer for the Bahamas, said: “Citi is fully committed to community service opportunities and promoting activities, which contribute to and support the development of our neighbourhood communities, as we are doing today.”

THE TRIBUNE

Monday, June 13, 2016, PAGE 5

Arawak port lauds its top Caribbean ranking THE Nassau Container Port’s (NCP) top executive has praised the team effort that led to it being ranked as the region’s most efficient port by a Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) study.

The report, which assessed the efficiency of 12 gateway ports in the Caribbean, resulted in the Arawak Cay-based facility beating out such territories such as Port of Spain, Trinidad ,and Suriname, which placed second and third, respectively.

An aerial photo of the Nassau Container Port also appears on the front cover of the report, entitled ‘Transforming the Caribbean Port Services Industry: Towards the Efficiency Frontier’.

Mike Maura, president and chief executive of BISXlisted Arawak Port Development Company (APD), NCP’s owner/operator, said: “First of all, I wish to congratulate the Caribbean Development Bank on undertaking such an essential port efficiency study.

“Ports serve as the gateway for trade, and directly influence the economics and efficiency of supply chains.

Consequently, port operators must continually strive for the highest standards in all aspects of our operations.

“These kinds of comparative studies by an internationally-respected institution like the CDB represent an important metric in the pursuit of excellence. I’m proud that our port has emerged as leader in the CDB survey.”

He added: “This level of accomplishment is a result of the great work and commitment of the Bahamian men and women of the Nassau Container Port community.

“In addition to APD’s excellent team members, we have necessary and excellent support from our terminal operators, Bahamas Customs, stevedoring partners and truckers. Each day they all influence the performance of the port. It’s because of their shared commitment to excellence that

the Nassau Container Port has been identified as the best port in the CDB study.”

NCP has received many accolades since its establishment in 2009. In 2014, the Florida Shipowners Group, which handles about 80 per cent of commercial maritime traffic in the Caribbean, ranked the Arawak Cay facility the most productive of 24 ports in the region, a leadership position that NCP has not relinquished to date.

Mr Maura said that in addition to a high-functioning port community, a dedication to acquiring the best equipment is a significant element in the port’s growing recognition as a first-class facility.

The Caribbean Shipping Association’s 2015 productivity report noted that thesau Container Port reaches an average 24.62 berth moves per hour, a pace topping other ports in the region.

Contributing to that advantage, the Association pointed to the efficient operation of NCP’s giant Liebherr Mobile Harbour Cranes, which are dependent on the terminal operators and stevedores; PD’s shipside team; Bahamas Customs and a well-maintained vessel.

Mr Maura said: “Berth productivity is the product of a well-choreographed operations chain.”

Identifying another input to NCP’s outstanding productivity, Mr Maura added: “From early on, our port community embraced change, worked as a team and leveraged APD’s investment in technology, port infrastructure and equipment.”

In 2012, the NCP installed the Navis TOS, which leads in the marine industry as a means of maximising terminal performance with reduced risk. The XPS yard management module was added in 2015, which enhanced the Navis TOS. The XPS module provided valuable enhancements to

NASSAU CONTAINER PORT

operational efficiency, safety and accountability.

“APD’s directors and executive team thank the NCP community and look forward to continued success.

Noted especially are Abaco Shipping, Arawak Bulk Terminals, Arawak Stevedoring Limited, Bahamas Customs, Betty K, Department of Agriculture, Department of Environmental Health, MailBoat Company, MSC, Nassau Harbour Pilots, Port Department, RH Curry, RoRo Company, Tropical Shipping, United Shipping, Inchcape Ship Services, McKinney Stevedoring, Eastside Stevedoring, Dockside Services, the New Providence Trucking community and APD Limited,” Mr Maura said.

The CDB report said its regional leadership should come as no surprise, given that the NCP is led and managed by the private sector.

Described as “a prime example of a well-developed, modern island port”, the 56acre facility received high commendation in several other areas.

The CDB report found that owing to an efficient yard management, operations and terminal area, the NCP currently faces no capacity restraints. The port was also praised for using dedicated trainers for crane operators, who are trained on site with their own equipment.

In the ‘Development Vision for the ports’ section, the CDB recommended a higher degree of private sector involvement in management, which produced yet another accolade for NCP and the Suriname port.

The study highlights the value of public-private partnerships ‘PPPs’ in the transformation of key infrastructure. The PPP between BISX-listed Arawak Port Development (APD), the NCP manager, and the Government serves as the foundation upon which human resources and hard infra-

structure can be leveraged.

The CDB report said: “The Port of Nassau represents a mature island port.

The port is functioning highly efficiently. This could warrant the shift of additional responsibilities to the private sector.”

Using the ports of Paramaribo and Nassau as prime examples, the bank’s report draws a direct connection between private sector participation leading to greater investment, which then yields a higher degree of efficiency.

The report’s researchers examined the Nassau Container Port and 11 other ports on the following seven features as indicators of efficiency: Berth productivity (level of productivity with respect to unloading cargo); labour productivity (measured

by TEU per employee); the state of port infrastructure; nautical access; level of autonomy of the port operator; the quality and type of stevedoring equipment and the level of information technology (IT) development. The participating ports were then

ranked in terms of efficiency.

The Nassau Container Port led the field in berth productivity and labour per TEU; tied with Suriname on infrastructure, and with Belize, Guyana and Suriname in autonomy; and with Trinidad and St Lucia in IT. The study assigned the heaviest weighting to productivity and labour (20 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively), where the Bahamas topped the next ranked competitor by 11 points.

PAGE 6, Monday, June 13, 2016

Ex-Chamber chairman: ‘Writing’s on the wall’ From pg B1 greater economic growth had to be balanced with continuing fiscal consolidation, meaning that the Bahamas must look to the private sector - not the Government - for job-creating investments and expansion.

He warned that poor governance and mismanagement was “now threatening to collapse” the Bahamas’ fiscal stability, and frustrate a growing youth population that was being “robbed of opportunities”.

“We know why there’s no GDP growth; education and consumer and business confidence,” the former Chamber chairman told Tribune Business.

“Educational achievement is too low, and business and consumer confidence is very low because of employment and everything else.”

He added: “The writing’s on the wall; we’ve got to be

smart enough to read it.

“It’s almost two years to the date that we wrote the missive to the Prime Minister from the Coalition for Responsible Taxation, outlining what needed to be done.

“May 27 we wrote that.

Less than 10 per cent has been acted upon, although at least they listened to a lower tax rate with no concessions [exemptions].”

That resulted in the broad-based, 7.5 per cent VAT, a model which was again praised by the IMF in last week’s Bahamas assessment for “exceeding expectations” in terms of gross revenues collected.

However, the Fund warned that the Bahamian economy continued to under-perform its potential, and there are virtually zero prospects for greater growth rates in the short to medium term.

Generating greater growth is one of the four

‘pillars’ underpinning the Government’s fiscal turnaround programme, but this - along with spending restraint - has proven elusive.

Suggesting that the prevailing business climate was less than conducive to fostering business growth and investment, Mr Myers told Tribune Business: “Everyone’s just trying to keep their head above water.

“It’s essential that we get those GDP numbers up if we want to avoid the threat of devaluation. And while we get those GDP numbers up, we’ve got to do more fiscal tightening, and more transparency, and move to a more modern governance system.”

Mr Myers, a principal of the newly-formed civil society organisation, Organisation for Responsible Governance (ORG), expressed hope that a more robust US economy would translate into improved stopover tourist numbers for the Bahamas.

He also suggested that “some movement in the Baha Mar standstill”, and other foreign direct invest-

ment (FDI) projects coming on stream, would aid the Bahamas’ search for jobs and GDP growth.

However, he warned that ORG’s twin objectives of fostering greater economic growth, and improved transparency and accountability in governance, were likely to be “a long slog”.

“As long as people focus on the right things and don’t politicise it too much, and allow people to try and help, there’s some hope we can improve,” Mr Myers said.

“The youth is especially frustrated, and don’t know why they’re frustrated.

They’ve been continually let down by poor governance, poor decision-making, and don’t have a lot of opportunity because of that.

“They’ve had opportuni-

THE TRIBUNE

ties robbed from them by years of mismanagement in education and everything else, and that mismanagement is now threatening to collapse the financial stability of the country,” he added.

“Our objective as ORG is not to attack any particular group, but move the country forward. The only way that can happen is if the private sector, citizen groups and the Government can work together to change the course and culture of governance.”

Mr Myers also expressed concern that the broadbased, low-rate VAT model was under threat from the Government’s desire to introduce so-called ‘exemptions’.

The Christie administration seemed to largely escape such pressures with

the 2016-2017 Budget, which only ‘exempted’ ancillary fees linked to tuition payments from the tax.

However, Opposition leader Dr Hubert Minnis, in a populist gesture, has pledged that the FNM would remove VAT from food and baby-related items if elected to office.

“Now they’re talking about putting concessions [exemptions] in, which is detrimental” Mr Myers said of the politicians. “It’s just a bad idea.

“If you want to deal with concessions, take some of the VAT money and give it to those in need. Take it and manage the VAT money, not force businesses to do so. Making businesses manage social benefits through VAT is not a good idea.”

US to cut water monitoring because of Puerto Rico debt

offered local officials a payment plan and proposals to lower the agencies' yearly contributions, but officials have not responded. A spokesperson for the Environmental Quality Board could not be immediately reached for comment.

More than 100 other stations would remain operational, but they are limited in scope and used exclusively by Puerto Rico's power agency and its water and sewer company, Rodriguez said.

It is the second time this week that Puerto Rico's debt has affected services.

On Tuesday, the island's only active air ambulance company said it had suspended its services over a multimillion-dollar debt.

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — The U.S. Geological Survey said Friday it can no longer monitor water resources in Puerto Rico because the territory's government owes it $2 million amid a worsening economic crisis.

The agency said it expects to stop operating up to 177 hydrologic stations

by July 1. That would affect the ability to issue flood warnings and as well as the monitoring of water quality, aquifer levels and drinking water supplies.

The stations also are used for environmental research and provide data

for water use, flood planning and climate change.

"It's a serious problem," Rafael Rodriguez, director of the USGS Caribbean-Florida Water Science Center, said in a phone interview. "The water quality network is being eliminated in its entirety."

Puerto Rico's Environmental Quality Board and 12 other local agencies are required by law to pay USGS 65 percent of the cost of operating the stations. However, the agencies have accumulated $2 million in debt in the past year, Rodriguez said.

He said the USGS has

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THE TRIBUNE

Monday, June 13, 2016, PAGE 7

Minister in compliance, business ease ‘balance’ From pg B1 Commerce] have spoken to me directly on some of the matters dating back to the revisions to the Business Licence process.

“With all of the filing initiatives and sign-off requirements, we’ve had discussions and made representations to the Ministry of Finance, which has carriage of these matters,” he added.

“We want to see a balance created between Government processes and what businesses need to be efficient and effective.”

Mr Rolle declined to comment on whether he was personally concerned, emphasising that he first wanted to speak to the Ministry of Finance “to see if we can maximise the opportunity to be as efficient as we can”.

Yet his comments indicate there is some disquiet within the Government itself over the newly-proposed tax compliance measures, which the Christie administration wants to accompany the 2016-2017 Budget.

Tribune Business revealed last week how government agencies, such

as the National Insurance Board (NIB), are now enforcing a a legal change passed with the 2015-2016 Budget that requires companies to provide a Tax Compliance Certificate (TCC) in order to obtain payment for goods and services ALREADY rendered.

Companies possessing government contracts worth $10,000 or more now face having to obtain, and provide, a TCC every month in order to obtain due payment.

Meanwhile, legislation accompanying the 20162017 Budget includes measures to shorten the ValueAdded Tax (VAT) payment window by one week, cutting it from 28 days after period end to 21.

The Government is also seeking to expanding the conditions for obtaining a TCC to cover major shareholders in a company, meaning that all investors owning greater than a 20 per stake - plus all affiliate/ subsidiary companies - will also need to be fully paidup with their taxes.

While there is a general consensus that the Gov-

ernment needs to improve compliance rates hovering around 40 per cent for many non-VAT taxes, many in the private sector fear it is employing the wrong methods.

They feel the proposed measures threaten to overburden the legitimate, compliant businesses that form the bulk of the Government’s tax base, while further eroding the ‘ease of doing business’ and investor confidence.

Mr Rolle told Tribune Business there needed to be “greater harmony” in the relationship between the Government and private sector, saying that it had too often been “strained”.

The former Chamber of Commerce president, given his history and standing in the private sector, will be more sensitive than most in government to the cries of business over the latest proposals.

And the measures threaten to impact his, and the BIA’s, efforts to promote and attract greater investment from both domestic and foreign sources.

“I see both sides now, and coming from an advocacy background I understand better than most what the concerns of business are,” Mr Rolle told Tribune Business. “I provide advice from that perspective.

“I’m an internal lobbyist within the Government on a daily and hourly basis. I constantly lobby the Ministry of Finance and other agencies that impact the ease and speed of doing business.

“I provide the lobby that is necessary. We’re still challenged internally to ensure there is greater harmony between the Government and private sector. There has always been strain between the two,” he added.

“I try as best I can to move things in my control through the system as quickly as possible, and provide a sympathetic ear to the business community.

That is one of the purposes I continually serve.

“The Ministry of Finance can tell you I lobby them every day. Internally, I spend more time trying to move things through the system, things inside and outside my control.”

Mr Rolle acknowledged that the Bahamas “falls down” when it comes to facilitating the smooth conduct of commerce, as shown

by its constant slippage in the World Bank’s ‘ease of doing business’ rankings to 106th spot.

“I’m still one of those individuals who believes we don’t maximise speed and efficiency,” he revealed.

“We still have some challenges. The ‘ease of doing business’ is a category where we fall down.”

Mr Rolle said he and the BIA were now having regular, weekly meetings with all government ministries and agencies that dealt with permits/approvals for private sector investors.

Those it meets with regularly include the Ministry of Works and the Bahamas Environment, Science and Technology Commission, as it seeks to eliminate bottlenecks and hold-ups in the regulatory process.

“We’re meeting on Monday with various government agencies to look at different concerns that businesses have regarding applications that are in,” the Minister said.

Improving economic and business competitiveness is a key component of the pro-

posed National Development Plan (NDP), for which Mr Rolle has ministerial oversight.

“One of the things businesspeople look at is their interaction with Government, and the cost in terms of man hours and actual dollars and cents,” he told Tribune Business.

“Whenever opportunities to minimise that interaction arise, it results in a saving to business which can go into research and development or the bottom line, and keep people employed.

“All governments should look at reducing what businesses have to spend interacting with them.”

Mr Rolle said the BIA was doing its part, having finally completed a database and website upgrade project, together with a mobile app that will “launch very shortly”.

The BIA mobile app is available from the Google play store, and the Minister added: “All of this is taking a bit more time than I’d like, but it allows people to interact with us at minimal cost.”

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PAGE 8, Monday, June 13, 2016

‘Little faith’ on $150m GFS deficit projection From pg B1 had given 12 months earlier.

Rather than beating the forecast $286 million deficit for that year, he said the Government now believed it had missed its target by almost $100 million to create ‘red ink’ equivalent to 4.4 per cent of Bahamian GDP. “The fiscal outturn in the 2014-2015 fiscal year featured a somewhat more elevated GFS deficit than had originally been projected in the Budget communication for that year,” Mr Christie admitted this May. “ The deficit, at $381 million, was some $95 million higher than the forecast of $286 million.”

The Prime Minister, in his May 25 address, blamed this on revenue coming in some $42 million below projections. And capital spending exceeded forecasts by $41 million due to an “acceleration” in the Royal Bahamas Defence Force’s (RBDF) re-equipping.

However, the extent to which the Government has had to revise its 2014-2015 fiscal performance does little to inspire confidence it will hit its $150 million GFS deficit estimate for 20152016.

And another who be-

lieves the Christie administration is unlikely to hit its short-term fiscal targets is the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is forecasting higher deficits than the Government for both the 2015-2016 and 20162017 fiscal years.

The Fund, in its latest assessment on the Bahamas, is projecting that the GFS deficits for those years will be equivalent to 3 per cent and 2.7 per cent of GDP, respectively.

Those percentages are equivalent to roughly $240 million and $216 million, respectively. Yet the Government is forecasting that the GFS deficit for 20152016 will come in at $150 million, a sum that is less than 2 per cent of GDP And for the upcoming 2016-2017 fiscal year, the Government is projecting a GFS deficit of $100 million or 1.1 per cent of GDP - less than 50 per cent of what the IMF is forecasting.

While the Fund agrees that the Bahamas will achieve a primary surplus this fiscal year, it also suggests that the Government’s direct debt-to-GDP ratio will continue growing to hit 67 per cent.

This contrasts sharply with the Government’s own estimate, which is for

the debt-to-GDP ratio to decline to 64.1 per cent in 2016-2017, down from its 64.6 per cent peak this fiscal year.

The IMF’s estimates, though, again suggest that the Government may be too optimistic and aggressive with its fiscal consolidation targets and timelines, even though it has managed to narrow the GFS deficit and arrest the national debt’s growth rate.

“I think that falls right in line with what we’ve been saying; the numbers are out, and very smudgy,” Mr Turnquest told Tribune Business of the Government’s 2014-2015 revision, and the IMF estimates.

“The Prime Minister did a 180 degree turn on his own words.

“They have not met their deficit targets, and the projections they have been putting forward ever since they started in 2012. If you look at the numbers, they just don’t track.”

As a result, Mr Turnquest said he had “very little faith” that the Government would hit its new $150 million deficit for the current fiscal year, which ends in just under three weeks time.

He expressed scepticism that the Christie administration would “come up with the miracle” necessary to achieve that projection, especially since economic growth projections had been cut by a full percent-

age point.

“We see already, from the mid-year Budget, an increase in the GFS deficit up to March this year,” the FNM deputy leader said.

“They had not made up the deficit between the 2015 calendar year-end and March, so why do we believe they’re able to come up with a miracle over the last quarter [of the fiscal year].”

The Government’s fiscal deficit for the six months to end-December 2015 was pegged at $157 million, a sum some $16 million in excess of the $141 million GFS deficit projected for the 2015-2016 full year.

And the Central Bank’s monthly economic report for February showed that the deficit for the first eight months of the 2015-2016 fiscal had risen to near-$243 million, more than $100 million above target.

Michael Halkitis, minister of state for finance, countered by saying the Government planned to ‘make up’ the gap via major revenue inflows that traditionally come in during the fiscal year’s latter half.

Apart from the $100 million-plus in Business Licence fees that flow in during March/April, Mr Halkitis also pointed to commercial vehicle licence fees and real property taxes as revenue streams that typically peak during the period.

N O T I C E EXXONMOBIL CHINA (SICHUAN) LIMITED ___________________________________________ N O T I C E IS HEREBY GIVEN as follows: (a) EXXONMOBIL CHINA (SICHUAN) LIMITED is in dissolution under the provisions of the International Business Companies Act 2000. (b) The dissolution of the said Company commenced on the 10th day of June, 2016 when its Articles of Dissolution were submitted to and registered by the Registrar General. (c) The Liquidator of the said Company is T.J. Frink, of 22777 Springwoods Village Parkway, Spring, Texas 77389, U.S.A. Dated the 13th day of June, 2016 HARRY B. SANDS, LOBOSKY MANAGEMENT CO. LTD. Registered Agent for the above-named Company

t. 242.323.2330 | f. 242.323.2320 | www.bisxbahamas.com

BISX ALL SHARE INDEX: CLOSE 1,924.12 | CHG 17.02 | %CHG 0.89 | YTD 100.17 | YTD% 5.49 BISX LISTED & TRADED SECURITIES 52WK HI 3.30 17.43 9.09 3.50 4.70 0.18 8.34 8.25 5.80 10.60 15.50 2.57 1.60 5.80 7.55 11.00 7.30 6.90 12.25 11.00

52WK LOW 2.20 17.43 9.09 3.00 4.70 0.12 4.84 7.25 5.25 6.85 14.50 1.94 1.27 5.51 5.60 9.90 6.00 5.25 11.75 10.00

PREFERENCE SHARES 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00

1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00

1.00 105.50 100.00 100.00 100.00 105.00 100.00 10.00 1.01

1.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 10.00 1.01

SECURITY AML Foods Limited APD Limited Bahamas Property Fund Bahamas Waste Bank of Bahamas Benchmark Cable Bahamas CIBC FirstCaribbean Bank Colina Holdings Commonwealth Bank Commonwealth Brewery Consolidated Water BDRs Doctor's Hospital Famguard Fidelity Bank Finco Focol ICD Utilities J. S. Johnson Premier Real Estate Cable Bahamas Series 6 Cable Bahamas Series 8 Cable Bahamas Series 9 Cable Bahamas Series 10 Colina Holdings Class A Commonwealth Bank Class E Commonwealth Bank Class J Commonwealth Bank Class K Commonwealth Bank Class L Commonwealth Bank Class M Commonwealth Bank Class N Fidelity Bank Class A Focol Class B

CORPORATE DEBT - (percentage pricing) 52WK HI 100.00 100.00 100.00

52WK LOW 100.00 100.00 100.00

SECURITY Fidelity Bank Note 17 (Series A) + Fidelity Bank Note 18 (Series E) + Fidelity Bank Note 22 (Series B) +

SYMBOL AML APD BPF BWL BOB BBL CAB CIB CHL CBL CBB CWCB DHS FAM FBB FIN FCL ICD JSJ PRE

LAST CLOSE 3.30 15.85 9.09 3.50 5.22 0.12 6.70 8.20 5.70 10.20 14.50 2.78 1.50 5.80 7.55 9.90 7.30 6.36 11.93 10.00

CLOSE 3.30 15.85 9.09 3.50 5.22 0.12 6.70 8.20 5.70 10.60 14.50 2.70 1.50 5.80 7.55 9.90 7.30 6.36 11.93 10.00

CHANGE 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.00 -0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

CAB6 CAB8 CAB9 CAB10 CHLA CBLE CBLJ CBLK CBLL CBLM CBLN FBBA FCLB

1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 10.00 1.01

1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 10.00 1.01

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

SYMBOL FBB17 FBB18 FBB22

LAST SALE 100.00 100.00 100.00

CLOSE 100.00 100.00 100.00

CHANGE 0.00 0.00 0.00

114.19 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

113.97 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

-0.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

VOLUME

3,000 65 .

VOLUME

EPS$ 0.304 1.351 1.086 0.220 -1.134 0.000 0.185 0.551 0.508 0.541 0.528 0.094 0.166 0.510 0.612 0.960 0.628 0.703 0.756 0.000

DIV$ 0.090 1.000 0.000 0.160 0.000 0.000 0.187 0.260 0.200 0.360 0.610 0.060 0.040 0.240 0.275 0.000 0.270 0.120 0.640 0.000

P/E 10.9 11.7 8.4 15.9 N/M N/M 36.2 14.9 11.2 19.6 27.5 19.5 9.0 11.4 12.3 10.3 11.6 9.0 15.8 0.0

YIELD 2.73% 6.31% 0.00% 4.57% 0.00% 0.00% 2.79% 3.17% 3.51% 3.40% 4.21% 2.22% 2.67% 4.14% 3.64% 0.00% 3.70% 1.89% 5.36% 0.00%

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 6.25% 7.00% 6.50%

INTEREST 7.00% 6.00% Prime + 1.75%

MATURITY 19-Oct-2017 31-May-2018 19-Oct-2022

6.95% 4.00% 4.00% 4.25% 4.25% 4.50% 4.50% 6.25% 6.25% 4.00% 4.25% 4.50% 6.25%

20-Nov-2029 15-Dec-2017 30-Jul-2018 16-Dec-2019 30-Jul-2020 15-Dec-2021 30-Jul-2022 15-Dec-2044 30-Jul-2045 26-Jun-2018 26-Jun-2020 26-Jun-2022 26-Jun-2045

BAHAMAS GOVERNMENT STOCK - (percentage pricing) 114.96 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

113.70 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

Bahamas Note 6.95 (2029) BGS: 2014-12-3Y BGS: 2015-1-3Y BGS: 2014-12-5Y BGS: 2015-1-5Y BGS: 2014-12-7Y BGS: 2015-1-7Y BGS: 2014-12-30Y BGS: 2015-1-30Y BGS: 2015-6-3Y BGS: 2015-6-5Y BGS: 2015-6-7Y BGS: 2015-6-30Y

BAH29 BG0103 BG0203 BG0105 BG0205 BG0107 BG0207 BG0130 BG0230 BG0303 BG0305 BG0307 BG0330

MUTUAL FUNDS 52WK HI 1.97 3.82 1.91 160.64 138.35 1.43 1.64 1.53 1.05 6.67 8.16 5.81 10.66 10.12

52WK LOW 1.67 3.04 1.68 164.74 116.70 1.37 1.51 1.45 1.03 6.11 6.93 5.55 10.37 8.65

FUND CFAL Bond Fund CFAL Balanced Fund CFAL Money Market Fund CFAL Global Bond Fund CFAL Global Equity Fund FG Financial Preferred Income Fund FG Financial Growth Fund FG Financial Diversified Fund FG Financial Global USD Bond Fund Royal Fidelity Bahamas Opportunities Fund - Secured Balanced Fund Royal Fidelity Bahamas Opportunities Fund - Targeted Equity Fund Royal Fidelity Bahamas Opportunities Fund - Prime Income Fund Royal Fidelity Bah Int'l Investment Fund Principal Protected TIGRS, Series 5 Royal Fidelity Int'l Fund - Equities Sub Fund

NAV 1.97 3.83 1.91 164.74 133.64 1.43 1.64 1.53 1.05 6.67 8.01 5.81 10.66 8.65

YTD% 12 MTH% 1.35% 4.06% 1.43% 6.57% 0.70% 3.23% 1.67% 5.13% 0.66% -3.41% 1.23% 3.88% 0.55% 8.17% 0.86% 5.37% 1.07% 1.61% -0.14% 9.15% -1.87% 15.62% 0.83% 4.82% 70.00% 2.80% -6.29% -13.65%

NAV Date 30-Apr-2016 30-Apr-2016 29-Apr-2016 31-Mar-2015 30-Sep-2015 30-Apr-2016 30-Apr-2016 30-Apr-2016 30-Apr-2016 29-Feb-2016 29-Feb-2016 29-Feb-2016 29-Feb-2016 29-Feb-2016

MARKET TERMS BISX ALL SHARE INDEX - 19 Dec 02 = 1,000.00 52wk-Hi - Highest closing price in last 52 weeks 52wk-Low - Lowest closing price in last 52 weeks Previous Close - Previous day's weighted price for daily volume Today's Close - Current day's weighted price for daily volume Change - Change in closing price from day to day Daily Vol. - Number of total shares traded today DIV $ - Dividends per share paid in the last 12 months P/E - Closing price divided by the last 12 month earnings

The March/April period also coincides with the peak winter tourism season, a time when Bahamian economic activity is at its highest.

Mr Turnquest, though, remained unconvinced, given that the Christie administration will have to run a near-$100 million ‘surplus’ over the final four months of the 2015-2016 fiscal year to meet its deficit targets.

“I have very little faith that the numbers they are projecting are going to hold,” Mr Turnquest said.

“Nothing they’ve done has cut costs, and revenue has not jumped so significantly that they’re able to make up that shortfall.

“That is logical, because from the Prime Minister’s own statement construction activity is down, and broader economic activity is down, so revenue from imports and other taxes is also going to be down.”

Government revenues are directly tied to GDP growth levels, and forecasts regarding the latter have proven optimistic in recent years, with the result that revenues have often underperformed expectations.

Mr Turnquest suggested that, as a result, the Government frequently found itself “living beyond its means”.

Arguing that “fiscal conservatism is the order of the day”, he said the Government was continuing to invest monies in programmes such as Junkanoo Carnival that had yet to deliver returns for the taxpayer.

Pointing to the Bahamian economy’s 1.7 per cent contraction in 2015, and pro-

jected GDP growth of just 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent in 2016 and 2017, respectively, Mr Turnquest said: “That’s tied directly to what we can expect to collect.

“If you look at the last 10 years, the average rate of economic growth has been 1 per cent. Every now and then we get 1.2, 1.3 per cent, but not much more than that. That’s our reality.

“If we’re tying our expenditure to that, then obviously we’re going to continue to run deficits, so something has to be adjusted.”

He added: “The IMF and all the rating agencies have indicated we need to grow at 5 per cent just to keep up; not to grow or absorb all those job seekers coming out of school, but to keep what we have.

“If we are growing at 0.5 per cent, 1 per cent, we have a problem. It’s an indication we may be living above our means.

“The fact of the matter is that we are faced with serious realities at the moment, and I don’t see anything in this Budget or on the horizon to change that anytime soon.”

Urging the Government to restrain its spending, the Opposition’s deputy leader told Tribune Business: “Fiscal conservatism is the order of the day.

“We see the Government investing in programmes that are not generating any kind of return, such as this Carnival thing and some of these tourism ventures that don’t make sense because you cannot track the returns.”

CALL 502-2394 TO ADVERTISE TODAY! NOTICE EXXONMOBIL CHINA (SICHUAN) LIMITED ____________________________________________ Creditors having debts or claims against the abovenamed Company are required to send particulars thereof to the undersigned c/o P.O. Box N-624, Nassau, Bahamas on or before 10TH day of July, A.D., 2016. In default thereof they will be excluded from the benefit of any distribution made by the Liquidator.

Dated the 13th day of June, A.D., 2016.

MARKET REPORT FRIDAY, 10 JUNE 2016

THE TRIBUNE

YIELD - last 12 month dividends divided by closing price Bid $ - Buying price of Colina and Fidelity Ask $ - Selling price of Colina and fidelity Last Price - Last traded over-the-counter price Weekly Vol. - Trading volume of the prior week EPS $ - A company's reported earnings per share for the last 12 mths NAV - Net Asset Value N/M - Not Meaningful

TO TRADE CALL: CFAL 242-502-7010 | ROYALFIDELITY 242-356-7764 | FG CAPITAL MARKETS 242-396-4000 | COLONIAL 242-502-7525 | LENO 242-396-3225

T. J. Frink Liquidator 22777 Springwoods Village Parkway Spring, Texas 77389 U.S.A. N O T I C E EXXONMOBIL CHINA (ORDOS) LIMITED _____________________________________ N O T I C E IS HEREBY GIVEN as follows: (a) EXXONMOBIL CHINA (ORDOS) LIMITED is in dissolution under the provisions of the International Business Companies Act 2000. (b) The dissolution of the said Company commenced on the 10th day of June, 2016 when its Articles of Dissolution were submitted to and registered by the Registrar General. (c) The Liquidator of the said Company is T.J. Frink, of 22777 Springwoods Village Parkway, Spring, Texas 77389, U.S.A. Dated the 13th day of June, 2016 HARRY B. SANDS, LOBOSKY MANAGEMENT CO. LTD. Registered Agent for the above-named Company

NOTICE EXXONMOBIL CHINA (ORDOS) LIMITED ____________________________________________ Creditors having debts or claims against the abovenamed Company are required to send particulars thereof to the undersigned c/o P.O. Box N-624, Nassau, Bahamas on or before 10TH day of July, A.D., 2016. In default thereof they will be excluded from the benefit of any distribution made by the Liquidator.

Dated the 13th day of June, A.D., 2016.

T. J. Frink Liquidator 22777 Springwoods Village Parkway Spring, Texas 77389 U.S.A.

THE TRIBUNE

Monday, June 13, 2016, PAGE 9

IMF: Bahamas growth potential down 50% since millennium turn From pg B1 reduce unemployment and raise potential growth.”

The 50 per cent reduction, in percentage terms, in the Bahamas’ economic growth potential over the past 16 years shows how this country is now paying the price for its failure to implement much-needed structural reforms.

While the IMF’s message has changed little from recent assessments, its latest missive emphasises just how much work the Bahamas has to do in multiple areas to revive its economy.

“Economic growth is estimated to have stalled in 2015, as a modest increase in air tourism arrivals was not sufficient to offset a contraction in domestic demand and weak exports of goods,” the IMF said.

“Private consumption and investment were weighed down by headwinds from fiscal consolidation, as well as an end to construction and uncertainty over the opening of the Baha Mar mega resort.”

The Fund’s GDP growth estimates have now been brought into line with the Government’s own, and reflect the 1.7 per cent con-

traction in 2015, as well as the 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent estimates for modest expansion in 2016 and 2017.

The reference to “headwinds from fiscal consolidation” refers to the impact of VAT, which sucked more than half a billion dollars from consumers and the private sector in 2015 as part of a ‘wealth transfer’ to the Government to help alleviate its fiscal woes.

VAT implementation was the about the only area to draw a ‘positive response’ from the IMF, which said the $536 million in gross revenues collected for the 2015 calendar year had “exceeded expectations”.

“As a result, the 20142015 deficit is estimated to have declined to 4.4 per cent of GDP (down from revised 5.6 per cent in FY20132014),” the Fund added.

“Available data for the first seven months of 20152016 suggest a further decline in the deficit, by about 1 percentage point, compared to the same period a year ago. The central government debt-to-GDP-ratio nevertheless reached 66.5 per cent in December 2015, pointing to limited fiscal space.”

‘Limited confidence’ in Budgetary figures From pg B1 of the Government’s fiscal projections and outcomes, and suggest that fiscal consolidation progress is not happening as quickly as it would like.

“One of the elements we typically see, and one which is always concerning, is that the prior year numbers remain provisional for an extended period of time,” Mr Bowe told Tribune Business in response.

“There’s constant movement in those numbers, which limits confidence in the numbers being presented.”

Mr Bowe acknowledged that figures related to fiscal/ Budget performance were likely to remain preliminary, or provisional, for several months while they were checked, but added that the process should not take two-three years.

He constrasted the Government’s finances with those of businesses and households, who knew what their estimated budgets were and then verified them “in a short period” of time.

“We should not be in a situation where we are consistently running provisional numbers for two to three years,” Mr Bowe told Tribune Business of the Government’s finances.

He suggested this could

be tied to the Government’s inability to obtain an unqualified audit of its accounts from the AuditorGeneral, whose reports frequently complain that the financial information presented cannot be relied upon.

“From that perspective, there needs to be hard and fast numbers, like any business and investment,” the Chamber chairman said, calling on the Government to better explain changes to its fiscal numbers.

“There has to be detailed analysis of what changed, why it changed it, and the presentation of complete numbers, so that people know if there were errors or omissions, not acts of misrepresentation or fraud,” he said.

“The point you raise [with the 2014-2015 numbers] is not so much the $184 million swing, but when are we ever able to make conclusive statements on the Budget numbers?”

The Chamber chairman added that the “most worrisome” part was not knowing what had caused substantial revisions to Budget forecasts and estimates.

Mr Bowe said successive administrations had tended to “beat their chest” whenever they exceeded Budget projections, but went “quiet and coy” when the news was

Yet the revised 4.4 per cent GFS deficit for 20142015 is much higher than the Government’s own initial projections, Prime Minister Perry Christie having stated in May 2015 that this figure was equivalent to just 2.3 per cent of GDP (see other article on Page 1B).

All this indicates that fiscal consolidation is not proceeding as rapidly as the Government would like and, coupled with “low growth potential” and the uncertainty surrounding the $3.5 billion Baha Mar development, the IMF appears to be saying the Bahamas is in a jam.

While a slight uptick in air arrivals and and “moderating headwinds to private consumption and investment” set to push the Bahamas back into positive growth territory in 2016, the IMF reiterated that a Baha Mar resolution would not be a panacea to this nation’s economic problems.

“While the Baha Mar opening is expected to provide a temporary boost to growth, helping to close the still sizeable output gap, structural impediments continue to constrain potential growth,” the IMF warned.

“Going forward, the outlook remains challenging, especially with high youth unemployment and low productivity growth.

“Against this backdrop,

[IMF] directors emphasised the importance of continued fiscal consolidation to rebuild fiscal and external buffers, and structural reforms to improve competitiveness, reduce unemployment and raise potential growth. They also underscored the need to address financial sector challenges.”

The Christie administration was urged to “resist pressures to introduce exemptions” from 7.5 per cent VAT, and to maintain the ethos of a broad-based, low rate tax.

The Government largely acceded to this request in its 2016-2017 Budget presentation, announcing only that ancillary fees attached to tuition payments were now to be exempted.

Urging the Government to stay the course, and further reduce the debt-toGDP ratio, the IMF also called on it to “contain increases” in the public sector wage bill and focus on “growth-enhancing infrastructure spending”.

Significantly, it also told the Christie administration to tackle its unfunded public sector pension liability, which stands at $1.5 billion and growing.

And the Fund also urged it to go beyond the energy sector in reforming stateowned agencies, such as the Water & Sewerage Corporation and Bahamasair, which continue to bleed

more negative.

“The positive and negative numbers are not something we can rely on,” he emphasised. “The Budget is just an indication of trajectory. It’s not an elegant presentation of performance to shareholders.

“I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a Budget presented in the last 10 years where the numbers have not been changed. The previous years have always been subject to some modification.

“When you ask how much confidence I have, if anyone asked: ‘Are those numbers you can make decisions on’, you’d be a bit optimistic in that regard,” Mr Bowe continued.

“We have to be careful about making bold predictions based on Budget figures that, in a year or two’s time, might not be reality.”

The Chamber chief added that Budget communications were typically presented when there was still a month left in the current fiscal year, meaning that projections regarding performance were based on estimates and assumptions - not finalised figures.

Given the consistent revisions to the Government’s financial figures, Mr Bowe said the Bahamas needed to focus on the absolute level of national debt and deficits, rather than ratios such as debt-to-GDP. And he also warned the Government against “praying for GDP growth” to keep its fiscal ratios in

check, noting that none of the growth projections since the 2008-2009 recession had ever materialised.

Mr Bowe added that GDP growth estimates were also not a reliable predictor of Government revenues, suggesting that better determinants were an increase in the number of tax-paying businesses or new and increased taxes.

Bahamian taxpayers of a collective $50 million annually.

“To address impediments to growth, [IMF] directors called for decisive implementation of structural reforms, including in the context of the National Development Plan,” the Fund’s assessment said.

“These reforms should aim at strengthening the business environment, raising human capital, reducing skill mismatches, and lowering high labour and energy costs.

“Directors also highlighted potential gains from efficient investment in information and communications technology, transportation, public utilities, economic diversification, and enhanced resilience to natural disasters.”

The IMF did acknowledge the Bahamas’ progress in the financial sector, specifically moves to imple-

ment the Basle II and III capital requirements, and to “address gaps” in its antimoney laundering regime.

With private sector credit declining by 1 per cent yearover-year in 2015, it also called on the Bahamas to tackle its $1.2 billion pile of ‘non-performing loans’.

“International reserves, supported in part by government external borrowing, increased to $981 million at end–March 2016, equivalent to about 2.4 months of next years’ projected imports of goods and services,” the IMF said.

“The current account deficit declined significantly, to 15.3 per cent of GDP in 2015 (compared to 22 per cent a year earlier), driven primarily by lower imports owing to the decline in oil prices and halt to Baha Mar construction.

“The current account deficit declined significantly but remains sizable.”

NOTICE

NOTICE is hereby given that ADDERLEY TANIS of Penny Saving Bank Lane, New Providence, Bahamas is applying to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, for registration/ naturalization as a citizen of The Bahamas, and that any person who knows any reason why registration/naturalization should not be granted, should send a written and signed statement of the facts within twenty-eight days from the 13th day of June, 2016 to the Minister responsible for nationality and Citizenship, P.O. Box N-7147, Nassau, Bahamas.

NOTICE

NOTICE is hereby given that GINA CHRISTIAN of Carmichael Road, New Providence, Bahamas is applying to the Minister responsible for Nationality and Citizenship, for registration/ naturalization as a citizen of The Bahamas, and that any person who knows any reason why registration/naturalization should not be granted, should send a written and signed statement of the facts within twenty-eight days from the 13th day of June, 2016 to the Minister responsible for nationality and Citizenship, P.O. Box N-7147, Nassau, Bahamas.

GOVERNMENT NOTICE COMMONWEALTH SCHOLARSHIP AND FELLOWSHIP PLAN UNITED KINGDOM AWARDS 2016 Applications are invited from suitably qualified persons for scholarships tenable in the United Kingdom under the Commonwealth Scholarship and Fellowship Plan commencing, October 2016.

Candidates should hold, by October 2016 a first degree of at least upper second class honours standard, or a degree of second class and a relevant postgraduate qualification (usually a Master's degree). If you are applying for split-site (PhD) study your application must be made in the context of a departmental/institutional link with a UK university already in operation or currently under negotiation. Your proposed UK supervisor must provide a letter of invitation. The 12 month period of study in the UK supported by the scholarship can be taken at any stage during your PhD study, providing this is justified in your study plan. It can be divided into two six month periods, with no more than 12 months elapsing between each award term. If you have not started your PhD at the time of application, you will be eligible to spend a maximum of six months in the UK in your first year of study.

If you have already started your PhD study at a UK university, you are not eligible to apply for this scholarship. Applications without any supporting statements from your proposed supervisors will be considered ineligible.

VALUE OF AWARD Each scholarship provides: (a) Approved airfare to the United Kingdom and return on expiry of the scholarship (a scholar's dependents are not eligible); (b) Stipend (living allowance) at a rate of £1,068 per month, or £1,268 per month for those at universities in the London metropolitan area; (c ) approved tuition and examination fees; (d) a grant towards the expenses of preparing a thesis or dissertation where applicable; (e) Warm clothing allowance; (f) a grant for expenses for approved study travel within the UK or overseas; (g) Fieldwork grant towards the cost of fieldwork undertaken overseas (usually the cost of one economy class return airfare to your fieldwork location); (h) Paid mid-term visit (airfare) to your home country (unless you have claimed (or intend to claim) spouse and or child allowance during your scholarship, or have received a return airfare to your home country for fieldwork); (i) If your scholarship is at least 18 months long, you will receive the following family allowances:



Spouse allowance of £222 per month if you and your spouse are living together at the same address in the UK (unless your spouse is also in receipt of a scholarship)



Child allowance of £222 per month for the first child and £100 for the second and third child under the age of 16, provided they are residing with their parents;

(j) If you are widowed, divorced or a single parent, child allowance of £444 per month for the first child and £109 per month for the second and third child under the age of 16, if you are accompanied by your children and they are with you at the same address in the UK. You must make application directly to the Commonwealth Scholarship Commission using the CSC's Electronic Application System (EAS). Further details, the prospectus and the link to the Electronic Application System (EAS) are available on the website: follow the link at http://bit.ly/cscuk-schilarshipsdeveloped-cw.

The deadline for application is 6:59 p.m. (EST) on 17 June, 2016 at the latest. All documentation, including references, transcripts, unconditional offers and supporting statements must be provided by 11:00 a.m. (EST) on 27 June, 2016.

You are not required to apply via a nominating body for this scholarship.

PAGE 10, Monday, June 13, 2016

THE TRIBUNE

Air France pilots join embarrassing train, garbage strikes PARIS (AP) — About a quarter of Air France pilots are striking to demand better working conditions — the latest challenge to travel-

ers and France's image as it hosts Europe's biggest sporting event.

Weeks of strikes and demonstrations over the coun-

try's labor reforms and other industrial disputes have led to panic at the pumps, violent protests in the streets and, most recently, garbage

rotting in the gutters. It's a litany of headaches which some Parisians fear will scare away visitors.

"I'm telling you, France

has become a very ugly country," Francoise Cuip, 60, told a reporter in Paris' well-heeled 16th district.

"It's my country, but that's the way it is."

French leaders had hoped to put the disruption behind them as the country turned its attention to the European Championship soccer tournament, which is expected to draw over 2 million visitors, but unions are planning to keep up the airline and trash strikes through Tuesday.

Up to a fifth of flights are canceled Saturday, Air France said, both domestic and international. Among those affected were flights carrying spectators to cities holding matches.

French train drivers have also been on strike for days; France's SNCF rail company was disrupted in the southeast, with cancellations possible. In Paris the rail link between the capital and Charles de Gaulle Airport was disrupted, with few trains running along the usually busy route.

Meanwhile garbage was

piling up uncollected because of a continuing strike and blockages by collectors.

On the streets of the capital, there was exasperation at the drumbeat of disruption.

"When it's not the trains, when it's not the metro, it's the trash," said Catherine Jacob, 48, who was walking past an overflowing garbage bin near Paris' Trocardero.

"In terms of hygiene, it's not good for the tourists, it's not good for the residents. Tomorrow we'll have rats in the street."

Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo said on Twitter that the city was "mobilizing all means, public and private" to clear the garbage.

The strikes are occurring for different reasons, but the labor unrest is tapping into nationwide discontent as the government tries to change laws regulating working hours and layoffs.

The influential CGT union, which is driving much of the action, may meet with the government over the weekend.

House backs symbolic measures to oppose oil fee, carbon tax WASHINGTON (AP) — Reinforcing its opposition to President Barack Obama's environmental agenda, the Republican-controlled House on Friday approved symbolic measures declaring hostility to two liberal ideas on fossil fuels.

One measure disapproves of Obama's call for a $10-per-barrel fee on crude oil, while the other preemptively opposes a plan Obama has never advanced: a "carbon tax" on emissions from fossil fuels such as oil and coal.

The House approved the oil-fee measure Friday on a 253-144 vote. Lawmakers voted 237-163 to express the belief that a carbon tax would be detrimental to the U.S. economy.

Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana, the No. 3 Republican in the House, said the oil fee and carbon tax are in line with the "radical rules and regulations" Obama has imposed.

The Directors of FOCOL Holdings Limited (FOCOL) are pleased to present the unaudited results for the third quarter ended April 30th, 2016. Net income for the nine months ended April 30th, 2016 was $19.6 million compared to $14.99 million last year.

Scalise denounced the Environmental Protection Agency, the IRS and the National Labor Relations Board — "the whole alphabet soup of federal agencies that every morning wake up trying to figure out how to make it harder for our economy to get moving again."

Rep. John Larson, DConn., blasted the GOP measures as nothing more than "a messaging opportunity" for Republicans.

"This has no force of law.

All this does is say what the sensibilities of Congress are," Larson said. "What the public thinks is that we're all bluster and no solutions."

Larson, who supports a carbon tax, said the proposal was "not just about climate change. It's about the health of the air we breathe, what we're poisoning the atmosphere with. The American people are screaming out for Congress not to have a messaging opportunity, but to offer a solution."

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION (B $000)

The decrease in sales and cost of sales for fiscal 2016 is directly related to the global decrease in the cost of petroleum products since 2015. FOCOL continues to produce record profits resulting from increased retail market share and greater operational efficiencies.

Capital investments in fiscal 2016 are proceeding as planned.

We are grateful for the commitment of our employees and the support of our customers and shareholders.

Sir Franklyn Wilson, KCMG Chairman.

Copies of a full set of the audited financial statements can be obtained from Stephen Adderley (sadderley@focol.com), at the Freeport Oil Company located on Queens Highway, Freeport, Grand Bahama, Monday through Friday from 8:30 AM TO 5:00 PM.