is pretty much the guaranteed winner of the GOP nomination. But there is another possible outcome, which will lead the party to a brokered convention (a convention in which no candidate has a clear majority and the winner is chosen by political wheeling and dealing on the convention floor). In Ohio, John Kasich leads Trump by a small margin. In Missouri, Ted Cruz is virtually tied with him. Even in Illinois, Cruz comes a very close second in the polls. In Florida, Trump leads Rubio in the polls, but Rubio leads him by a healthy margin in early voting — and so far in this election in whichever state early voting was held, if Trump wasn’t doing well in the early voting, he did even worse on election day. So if Trump were to lose all or most of these states, his chances of reaching 1,237 delegates — the majority needed to secure the nomination — will become exceedingly slim. So this might be the night that ends the long battle — or the night that starts an entirely new one.
TUESDAY MARCH 22ND. The democrats have elections in 3 states this coming Tuesday, Arizona, Idaho and Utah. The republicans have only 2 contests, in Arizona and Utah. Even though Arizona is a winner-take-all state with 58 delegates up for grabs, there are no recent polls for that state.
124
/ T HE MONS E Y V IE W
G O P D E L E G AT E C O U N T STATE
Trump Cruz Rubio Kasich Carson* Bush*
IOWA 7 8 7 1 3 1
Huckabee* Paul*
1 1
NEW HAMPSHIRE
11 3 2 4 0 3 0 0
SOUTH CAROLINA
50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
NEVADA
14 6 7 1 2 0 0 0
ALABAMA
36 13 1 0 0
ALASKA 11 12 5
0 0
ARKANSAS
16 14 9 0 0
GEORGIA
40 18 14 0 0
MASSACHUSETTS
22 4 8 8 0
MINNESOTA
8 13 17 0 0
OKLAHOMA 13 15 12 0 TENNESSEE
0
31 15 9 0 0
TEXAS 47 102 3 0
0
VERMONT
6 0 0 6 0
VIRGINIA
17 8 16 5 3
KANSAS 9 24 6
1 0
KENTUCKY
17 15 7 7
LOUISIANA
18 18 5 0
MAINE 9 12 0
2
PUERTO RICO
0 0 23 0
HAWAII
11 7 1 0
IDAHO 12 20 0
0
MICHIGAN
25 17 0 17
MISSISSIPPI
24 13 0 0
WYOMING 1 9 1 0 WASHINGTON D.C. 0 TOTAL
0 10 9
460 370 163 63 8
4
1
1