[ trends ]
SEEDS OF GROWTH IN PLANT-BASED FOODS The plant-based food revolution continues to break new ground, as data reveals shoppers are increasingly seeking out dairy and protein alternatives. Rising awareness of health and wellbeing, a desire to make the budget go further and easier access to plant-based foods has seen the trend becoming even more mainstream in 2022. This is the conclusion from market research experts IRI, who have been tracking how New Zealand consumer attitudes towards plantbased foods have evolved in recent years. Last year Burger King launched its plant-based Rebel Whopper burger, and KFC in the US has added Beyond Meat’s chicken-free chicken to its menu. IRI have found that as consumers prioritise their health, there is a widespread perception that ‘plantbased’ equals ‘better for you’, with losing weight, managing cholesterol and a desire to improve wellbeing key drivers for reducing meat and dairy intake. It's not about going all out vegan, or even vegetarian! 46% of shoppers see themselves as meat reducers or flexitarian, and 28% are dairy reducers, which means they’re choosing both traditional meat and dairy and alternative proteins/plant-based milks in their basket1.
Food for thought With more Kiwis choosing plant-based alternatives, how does that translate in the shopping basket? Grocery Milks hit the top 10 growing categories in grocery food and beverage for the first time in May with +24M growth vs YA (+14.3%)2, and although this category includes dairy the majority of the gains ($18.4M)2 came from Total Plant based milks. This has been driven by the on-trend Oat Milk segment, worth $26.2M with a whopping +16.7M growth on the previous year. Market share is dominated by Sanitarium (36.0%) and Vitasoy (26.3%), with a strong private label presence (16.0% share), which points to plant-based milks becoming mainstream and viewed as a commodity by consumers2. There is also a rise in barista-style milks specifically made for hot drinks, with the sub-segment worth $8.2 million and up $6.3 million on the previous year2. This ties in with the flexitarian trend, with plant-based milks increasingly being used alongside dairy, i.e. almond milk in smoothies, oat milk in coffee and dairy milk in cooking and baking. Among plant-based meat alternatives, tofu is still the largest segment, worth $13 million and up 15.4% compared to 2021, but newer variants such as vegetarian chicken (up 32.7%), vegetarian mince (up 40.2%) and bacon (up 20.9%) are becoming popular.
Life Health Foods boast four of the top five vegetarian brands, however Tonzu (tofu products) and ready meal brand Plantry are driving growth, up $1.1m and $1.0m respectively2. The trend looks to keep growing for the foreseeable future driven by an interest in health and wellbeing, the ongoing COVID environment and the resultant worsening economy. “We had a lot of interest last year in our first-tomarket Plant-Based Foods Project,” said Julie Bramley, who heads up thought leadership and research solutions at IRI. “At the time plant-based foods were growing faster than total food & beverages at +11.5% compared to +0.7% for total prepackaged grocery. We’ll no doubt be repeating this project to understand the impact that inflation has on plant-based food choices. In our most recent Cost of Living study 43% of household shoppers agree they are eating less meat to save money.”3 There is little doubt plant-based foods will increasingly be a key trend in grocery, with the pandemic only fueling growth. The COVID environment has not only led to heightened interest in health and wellbeing, it has also created a worsening economic outlook – and with alternative proteins expected to become dramatically cheaper than meat in the coming decades, it seems little will derail their popularity.
Sarah Ensor Senior Insights Analyst IRI New Zealand
1. IRI NZ Plant-Based Shopper Survey October 2021 2. IRI Market Edge Grocery, Total Key Accounts, MAT to 01/05/2022 (Excludes alcohol) 3. IRI Cost of Living Survey April 2022
PLANT BASED MILKS Dollars (000s)
Dollars (000s) Growth % YA
Total Plant Based Milk*
$98,671
22.6%
Total Almond
$32,507
2.6%
Total Soy
$27,729
2.4%
Total Oat*
$26,154
175.6%
Total Coconut*
$6,461
15.0%
Total Other Nut
$2,963
-9.0%
Total Rice
$2,858
-14.3%
* denotes value AND unit growth > +2.0% Source : IRI Market Edge Grocery MAT to 01/05/22 (Selected segments)
“THE GROWTH OF PLANT-BASED ALTERNATIVES IS EVIDENT IN BOTH SUPERMARKETS AND QUICKSERVICE RESTAURANTS. ” FMCG BUSINESS - JUNE 2022
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