eMKambo Vibes – 13 February 2017
Using experimentation to balance short term agricultural gains with long term value creation Climate change and unstable agricultural markets in developing countries are forcing agricultural actors to rely on constant experimentation. Historical knowledge is no longer enough for decision-making as contexts are always shifting. The level of complexity is such that farmers, traders and financial institutions cannot fully depend on individual meticulous planning. There are so many copycats waiting on their wings to enter the market and disrupt cash flows. While planning remains very important, it is the consolidation of all individual plans that matters most. For instance, long-term national policy planning misses the point if not informed by short and medium-term plans of actors such as farmers.
The main challenge in most developing countries is that agricultural value chain actors such as farmers, processors, financiers and development partners do not share plans and targets. As long as plans are locked in silos, it is impossible to achieve national policy goals. Farmers tend to depend on short-term plans, mostly seasonal as opposed to a framework laying out three to four year plans. The majority of seasonal plans are designed to meet household needs first with the surplus going to the market. Since information about surplus is barely consolidated, markets are kept guessing and therefore unable to plan.
Dangers and drivers of short-term plans While short-term plans are good at meeting emergent needs like food security, there is no room for learning from short-term plans. It is insufficient to learn from short-term initiatives that take three to six 1