banda_tasc_survey_findings_36898806dc6aa0

Opinion Poll 2014 A Barometer Report Prepared for: TASC Prepared by: Martha Fanning

November 2014 J.5968 Confidential

Introduction ●

Market research was required to measure attitudes to income distribution amongst a nationally representative sample of adults.

●

An agreed set of questions were included in the late October wave of Behaviour & Attitudes’ twice monthly face-to-face Omnibus survey, Barometer.

●

Barometer is a nationally representative survey of 1,000 adults aged 16+.

●

Quotas are set on gender, age, social class and region to ensure that the results correctly reflect the known demographics of the Republic of Ireland.

●

Interviewing is conducted by our fully trained and supervised team of interviewers at 63 locations across the country.

●

Fieldwork was conducted 27th October – 5th November, 2014.

2 Confidential

Results

Fairness of Income Distribution: Overview All Adults 16+: 1006

2008 Very fairly distributed

2009 1

3

1 11

14 Quite fairly distributed

1 16

26 39

39

Quite unfairly distributed

2014

2010

45

85%

36

87%

83%

70% 46 Very unfairly distributed

48

46

25

83% feel income in Ireland is unfairly distributed.

Q.1a

Confidential

Which of these statements best describes how you feel income in Ireland is distributed?

4

Fairness of Income Distribution x Gender/Age All Adults 16+: 1006 GENDER Base:

AGE

Total

Male

Female

U25

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

1006

483

523

152

206

277

138

2

2

1

233

14

15

16

35

39

32

Very fairly distributed

1

Quite fairly distributed

16

Quite unfairly distributed

36

Very unfairly distributed

46

2 19

34

45

1

14

22

38 32

47

43

49

45

1

2 17

41

50

40

Demographics are fairly steady: men and under 25s marginally more likely than average to think income is fairly distributed.

Q.1a

Confidential

Which of these statements best describes how you feel income in Ireland is distributed?

5

Fairness of Income Distribution x Class & Region All Adults 16+: 1006

CLASS

Base: Very fairly distributed Quite fairly distributed

REGION

Total

ABC1

C2DE

F

Dublin

1006

454

477

75*

285

1

1

2

0

16

19

14

17

Quite unfairly distributed

36

Very unfairly distributed

46

3

288

0

2

14

17

30 43

33

42

55

52 41

254

20

32 40

Leinster Munster Conn/Uls

40

44

39

179

1

14

39

46

* Caution low base

White collar workers and Dubliners are marginally more likely than average to think income is fairly distributed.

Q.1a

Confidential

Which of these statements best describes how you feel income in Ireland is distributed?

6

Incomes of Top 10% are 7.5 times greater than those on lowest incomes: Fairness of Income Distribution All Adults 16+: 1006

GENDER Base:

AGE

Total

Male

Female

U25

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

1006

483

523

152

206

277

233

138

Very fairly distributed Quite fairly distributed

1 11

Quite unfairly distributed

36

34

Very unfairly distributed

52

52

2 13

1 9

2 11

37

35

52

52

1 7

2 13

37 37

55

48

1 12

31

56

1 10

39

50

When informed that incomes of top 10% are 7.5 times greater than those on lowest incomes, the proportion who feel income is unfairly distributed rises from 83% to 88%. Demographic differences are very modest.

Q.1b

Confidential

The incomes of the top 10% in Ireland are typically seven and a half times greater than the lowest incomes in Ireland. Which of these statements best describes how you feel income in Ireland is distributed?

7

Incomes of Top 10% are 7.5 times greater than those on lowest incomes: Fairness of Income Distribution All Adults 16+: 1006

CLASS

Very fairly distributed Quite fairly distributed

Quite unfairly distributed

Very unfairly distributed

REGION

Total

ABC1

C2DE

F

Dublin

1006

454

477

75*

285

1 11

2

1 8

36

52

15

32 37

1 6

254

288

1 5

2

16

13

33 46

33

46

49

179

0 9

37 40

60

59

46

2

Leinster Munster Conn/Uls

46

55

The income information appears to have greatest impact on blue collar workers and those living in Rest of Leinster.

Q.1b

Confidential

The incomes of the top 10% in Ireland are typically seven and a half times greater than the lowest incomes in Ireland. Which of these statements best describes how you feel income in Ireland is distributed?

8

The Government should take Active Steps to Reduce Gap Between High and Low Earners All Adults 16+: 1006

Base:

2009

2010

2014

956

1010

1006

66

64

26

26

5 2 2

6 4

Strongly agree

60

Agree somewhat

25

Disagree somewhat Strongly disagree Don’t know

10 3 1

2 in 3 strongly agree, and 9 in 10 agree to some extent.

Q.2

Confidential

Do you agree or disagree that the government should take active steps to reduce the gap between high and low earners?

9

The Government should take Active Steps to Reduce Gap Between High and Low Earners X Gender & Age All Adults 16+: 1006

GENDER Total

Male

1006

483

Strongly agree

64

62

Agree somewhat

26

27

6 4

7 5

Base:

Disagree somewhat Strongly disagree

Female 523

66

25 5 4

AGE U25 152

68

25-34 206

68

26

23

3 3

7 2

35-49 277

50-64 233

65+ 138

62

62

60

26

27

31

7 5

5 6

5 4

No real differences by demographics Q.2

Confidential

Do you agree or disagree that the government should take active steps to reduce the gap between high and low earners?

10

The Government should take Active Steps to Reduce Gap Between High and Low Earners X Class & Region All Adults 16+: 1006

CLASS

Base:

Strongly agree

Agree somewhat

Disagree somewhat Strongly disagree Don’t know

REGION

Total

ABC1

C2DE

F

Dublin

1006

454

477

75*

285

60

57

64

26 6 4

60

69

27 24

8 5

5 3

32

3 5

Leinster Munster Conn/Uls 254

70

30

288

60

71

30 22

6 7

179

6 2

21 6 4

5 3

* Caution low base

Higher agreement amongst blue collar workers and those living in Rest of Leinster.

Q.2

Confidential

Do you agree or disagree that the government should take active steps to reduce the gap between high and low earners?

11

Action Government Should Take to Reduce the Gap Between High & Low Earners X Gender & Age All Adults 16+: 1006

Base: Increase the minimum wage to raise the incomes of low earners

2010

2014

1010

1006

16 38

Establish a ‘maximum wage’ to cap the amount of money earned by high earners

29 9

A combination of the two approaches (i.e., increasing the earnings of those at the bottom while capping the earnings of those at the top).

Neither of these approaches

49

46

5

7

Looking at actions the government should take to reduce this income gap, support for increasing the minimum wage has increased from 65% to 84%, while support for a maximum wage has decreased from 78% to 55%.

Q.3

Confidential

Which, if any, of the following steps do you feel the Government should take to reduce the gap between high and low earners?

12

Action Government Should Take to Reduce the Gap Between High & Low Earners X Gender & Age All Adults 16+: 1006

TOTAL

Female

U25

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

1006

483

523

152

206

277

233

138

38

35

34

31

9

11

10

13

42

45

50

50

10

10

6

5

Increase the minimum wage to raise the incomes of low earners

Establish a ‘maximum wage’ to cap the amount of money earned by high earners

AGE

Male

2014 Base:

GENDER

40

49

7

44

35

10

4 6

A combination of the two approaches (i.e., increasing the earnings of those at the bottom while capping the earnings of those at the top).

Neither of these approaches

46

7

43

11

49

4

42

3

Support for increasing the minimum wage is lowest amongst 35-49s, and highest amongst U25s. U35s least in favour of a ‘maximum wage’.

Q.3

Confidential

Which, if any, of the following steps do you feel the Government should take to reduce the gap between high and low earners?

13

Action Government Should Take to Reduce the Gap Between High & Low Earners X Class & Region All Adults 16+: 1006

TOTAL

Base:

CLASS

REGION

2014

ABC1

C2DE

F

Dublin

1006

454

477

75*

285

Increase the minimum wage to raise the incomes of low earners

38

Establish a ‘maximum wage’ to cap the amount of money earned by high earners

A combination of the two approaches (i.e., increasing the earnings of those at the bottom while capping the earnings of those at the top).

Neither of these approaches

9

46

7

37

7

46

10

38

10

41

33

Leinster Munster Conn/Uls 254

40

288

32 44 9

9 7

12

11

46 47

6

48

41

6

179

12

5

36

8

57

3

* Caution low base

Social class differences are very modest. Regional differences are greater.

Q.3

Confidential

Which, if any, of the following steps do you feel the Government should take to reduce the gap between high and low earners?

14

Willingness to Support Higher Taxation All Adults 16+: 1006

High Quality

Provide New or Additional Public Services

Public Services*

Very willing

2010

2014

2014

1010

1006

8

11

11

39

38

20

20

31

31

1006

27 Fairly willing

Fairly unwilling

Very unwilling

25

37

50% now willing to support higher taxes if guaranteed high quality public services; up from 35% in 2010. Regardless of wording or nuances the results show an even split in favour and against higher taxation.

Q.4a Q.4b

Confidential

Compared to some other European countries funding for public services in Ireland, such as health, education, social protection and pensions is low. How willing or not would you be to pay more taxes if you were guaranteed that this would result in high quality public services?

And how willing or not would you be to pay more taxes if the State guaranteed to provide new or additional public services such as pre school education and social housing?

*Slight wording changes

15

Willingness to Support Higher Taxation in Order to Achieve High Quality Public Services X Gender & Age All Adults 16+: 1006

GENDER

Base: Very willing

Fairly willing

AGE

Total

Male

Female

U25

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

1006

483

523

152

206

277

233

138

11

10

11

11

10

11

15

8

32 39

39

38

34

44

40

38

23 Fairly unwilling

20

21

19

Very unwilling

31

30

32

24

27

18

27

18

20

32

32

38

25-34s marginally more willing to support higher taxation. Over 65s least likely to support higher taxation.

Q.4a

Confidential

Compared to some other European countries funding for public services in Ireland, such as health, education, social protection and pensions is low. How willing or not would you be to pay more taxes if you were guaranteed that this would result in high quality public services?

16

Willingness to Support Higher Taxation in Order to Achieve High Quality Public Services X Class & Region All Adults 16+: 1006

CLASS

Base: Very willing

Fairly willing

Fairly unwilling

Very unwilling

REGION

Total

ABC1

C2DE

F

Dublin

1006

454

477

75*

285

254

11

12

9

10

11

13

36

30

39

20

31

20

20

12

179

5

31 48 21

19 21

20

26

288

35 39

42

Leinster Munster Conn/Uls

17 35

40 28

39

37 23

Blue collar workers reject the notion of higher taxation as do Leinster dwellers and those living in Connacht or Ulster.

Q.4a

Confidential

Compared to some other European countries funding for public services in Ireland, such as health, education, social protection and pensions is low. How willing or not would you be to pay more taxes if you were guaranteed that this would result in high quality public services?

17

Willingness to Support Higher Taxation in Order to Provide New or Additional Public Services X Gender & Age All Adults 16+: 1006

GENDER

Base: Very willing

Fairly willing

AGE

Total

Male

Female

U25

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

1006

483

523

152

206

277

233

138

11

10

11

12

10

11

38

40

36

16

35

45

38

35

6

35

19 Fairly unwilling

Very unwilling

20

31

20

29

20

24

33

25

19

22

33

32

17

27

40

Support peaks amongst 25-34s and declines gradually after that.

Q.4b

Confidential

And how willing or not would you be to pay more taxes if the State guaranteed to provide new or additional public services such as pre school education and social housing?

18

Willingness to Support Higher Taxation in Order to Provide New or Additional Public Services X Class & Region All Adults 16+: 1006

CLASS

Base: Very willing

REGION

Total

ABC1

C2DE

F

Dublin

1006

454

477

75*

285

254

12

12

11

13

9

8

Leinster Munster Conn/Uls 288

14

38

39

38

40

33

43

18 Fairly unwilling

20

21 45

Very unwilling

31

26

34

21

18

19 21

4

35

28 Fairly willing

179

27

20 41

38 23

Support weakest in Leinster, Connacht/Ulster and amongst blue collar workers.

Q.4b

Confidential

And how willing or not would you be to pay more taxes if the State guaranteed to provide new or additional public services such as pre school education and social housing?

19

Top Tax Rate of 60%, on Income in Excess of €100,000: For or Against? x Gender & Age All Adults 16+: 1006

GENDER

AGE

Total

Male

Female

U25

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

1006

483

523

152

206

277

233

138

In favour

63

63

63

Against

37

37

37

Base:

58

42

68

32

63

37

66

34

57

43

Just under 2 in 3 in favour of a top tax rate of 60%, combining income tax, USC and social insurance, peaking amongst 25-35.

Q.5 Confidential

Would you be in favour or against a top tax rate of 60%, combining income tax, USC and social insurance, on that part of income in excess of €100,000 per annum?

20

Top Tax Rate of 60%, on Income in Excess of €100,000: For or Against? x Class & Region All Adults 16+: 1006

CLASS Base:

Total

ABC1

C2DE

F

Dublin

1006

454

477

75*

285

254

288

60

63

61

40

37

39

In favour

63

Against

REGION

37

58

42

67

33

Leinster Munster Conn/Uls

72

28

179

70

30

Highest proportions in favour in Connacht/Ulster.

Q.5 Confidential

Would you be in favour or against a top tax rate of 60%, combining income tax, USC and social insurance, on that part of income in excess of €100,000 per annum?

21

Key Findings

22 Confidential

Key Findings ●

83% feel income in Ireland is unfairly distributed.

●

When informed that the incomes of the top 10% are 7.5 times greater than those on lowest incomes, 88% feel income in Ireland is unfairly distributed.

●

90% feel that the government should take active steps to reduce the gap between high and low earners.

●

84% feel the government should increase the minimum wage, up from 65% in 2010.

55% feel a maximum wage should be established (down from 78% in 2010). 46% feel both measures should be introduced. 7% feel neither measure should be introduced.

●

50% are willing to support higher taxes if guaranteed high quality public services, up from 35% in 2010. Two slightly different wordings were put to respondents, and in both cases the result is an even split between the two.

●

63% are in favour of the introduction of a 60% top rate of tax, combining income tax, USC and Social Insurance, on annual income in excess of €100,000.

23 Confidential

24 Confidential