Are famines a thing of the past

FAMINE Cormac Ó Gráda [cormac.ograda@ucd.ie]

TASC, 18ú Nollaig 2014

First, a definition: ‘Famine refers to a shortage of food or purchasing power that leads directly to excess mortality from starvation or hunger-induced diseases.’

FAMINE FOODS: Nettles, snails, cattle blood, docks, bog berries, sloes, pignuts, sycamore seeds, laurel berries, holly berries, wild carrot, dandelion, silverweed, dog-meat, cat-meat, horsemeat, sea anemone, limpets, mullet, charlock, juices of red clover and heather blossoms…

‘A three year-old sheepskin previously used as a windbreak’; ‘whatever drop of milk could be got from a donkey which had just given birth’

Horrors of famine: Hunger, disease, death Fear, end to hospitality Corruption, cruelty Criminality Enslavement Child abandonment, infanticide Cannibalism

20th Century versus Before Malthus versus Human Agency • Europe’s last: Moldova 1946/47 • Asia’s last: Cambodia, Bangladesh, North Korea[?]

• Africa: Malawi, Niger, Somalia

PURE MALTHUS In the spring of 1920, a severe drought gripped the lower part of the North China Plain‌This long drought extended into the spring of 1921. As a result several million farmers perished in what came to be known as the North China Famine of 1921.

Ralph Thaxton [2008]

PURE AGENCY Between 1958 and 1962, China descended into hell. Mao Zedong threw his country into a frenzy with the Great Leap Forward, an attempt to catch up to and overtake Britain in less than fifteen years. The experiment ended in the greatest catastrophe the country had ever known, destroying tens of millions of lives.

Frank Dikรถtter (2010)

‘Traditional’ and ‘Modern’ Famines Disease versus starvation ‘Modern’ famines include: • • • •

Dutch Hongerwinter (1944-45) Greece (1942-43) The Leningrad siege famine (1941-43) The Great Leap Forward famine [?]

Famines and Entitlement Crises • Sen (1981) argued that Bengal Famine less about FAD than loss of purchasing power of the landless • Malfunctioning markets => ratio of food prices to wages rocketed • Bengal paradigmatic • But truth about Bengal is different

31 July: War Cabinet turned deaf ear to Amery’s pleas. Decided that ‘shortage of cereals in India not due to a physical insufficiency but to hoarding’ so delivery of grain would serve no purpose.

8 Sept: Auchinleck pleaded that ‘so far as shipping is concerned, the import of food is to my mind just as if not more important than the import of munitions ’.

24 Sept: War Cabinet decided that it would be impossible to divert ships to deliver food before next Indian harvest.

I think, looking back, that the adoption of the psychology or gospel of ‘plenty’ in Bengal was a mistake.

Henry Braund, colonial administrator [1944]

War Famines • 30 Years’ War; Madrid 1811-12; World War II (Bengal, Henan, USSR, etc.)

• In Ireland: 1315-17, 1580s, 1600s, 1645-52

• Somalia: 1991, 2011-12

‘Hidden’ Famines • Moldova 1946-47 • China 1959-61(Dwight Perkins vs.

Dikotter, Yang, et al.)

• North Korea 1990s (still poorly documented; 3m to 0.3m?)

3 very recent ‘famines’: • Malawi (2002) [‘small’] • Niger (2005)

[‘small’]

• Somalia (2011)

[war]

NIGER 2005 • News broken by Hilary Andersson (BBC) and Jan Egeland (UN)

• Focus of much international attention controversy • Sultbløffen (Norwegian TV, 2008)

NIGER 2005: Finis coronat opus?

In spite of the media-driven excesses‌ the mobilization which MSF triggered in 2005 at least had the merit of bringing infant mortality to the forefront as a major public health issue.

De Sardan et al. (2007) The most spectacular results are to be found in Maradi: the prevalence of acute malnutrition recorded at the end of 2006 was lower than that in Niamey, historically the lowest in the country.

Bradol (2007)

Percentage of population with HIV/AIDS: 19902011

NGOs and Famine • Several began with famine • Disaster hype (Niger 2005) • Disasters and bureaucracies • Inadequate public response => ‘Nationalization’

‘Trads’

• • • • •

Famine Rattling Tins Lenten fasts Private Charity Independent

‘Mods’

Development Direct debit, texting On-street fundraisers Public Funding Agent of State

Dilemmas • Development ‘difficult’[bad for advocacy] • Results of ODA hard to identify [bad for advocacy] • Public ‘prefer’ emergencies

THE CRISIS OF 2007-08

• Prices rose dramatically • Much unrest • Increase in malnutrition rates

• BUT: no famine!

In the near future: ‘Small famines’ in peacetime But in the medium term: • • • •

Global Warming Wheat Prices?

Oil? Induced Response?