INSIGHTS SPECIAL EDITION 2023

LOOKING BEYOND THE CURVE

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023 | SPECIAL EDITION

SYNERGIA

MEDIA ENABLED

TechFrontiers:

Exploring the Intersections of Diplomacy and Security

EXCLUSIVES 2023: THE YEAR THAT WAS Page - 03

INDIA’S NEIGHBOURHOOD Page - 08

AEROSPACE AND DEFENCE Page - 25

VIRTUAL HORIZONS Page - 33

A FRESH PANDEMIC ON THE HORIZON? Page - 49

INSIGHTS is a strategic affairs, foreign policy, science and technology magazine that provides nonpartisan analysis of contemporary issues based on real-time information.

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EDITORIAL Dear Reader: Greetings from the Synergia Foundation!

2023 brought to the fore new challenges and some achievements, but overall, it was a fair year for India. The highlight was the 9th Edition of Synergia Conclave, a premier thought leadership platform in Asia that corrals some of the most insightful ideas and solutions from practitioners around the globe.

The 9th Synergia Conclave discussed how governments and enterprises could navigate systemic risks due to paradigm shifts in geopolitics, disruptions in global supply chains, and adopting emerging and advanced technologies, including quantum, artificial intelligence and space technologies. Unfolding over three days, the Conclave hosted a broad spectrum of experts, including diplomats, policymakers, intelligence heads, military, technologists, scientists, academicians, media heads and industry leaders.

The Conclave provided a futuristic perspective on issues needing interdisciplinary thinking by curating purposeful dialogues and developing innovative, actionable ideas.

It also equipped stakeholders to make more informed decisions in an asymmetric and disruptive world. Diplomatic heads and top military officials from Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Burma, Maldives, Thailand, Indonesia, Japan, United Kingdoms, France, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Israel,

Singapore, China, Russia, Australia, Netherlands, Denmark and the United States were represented.

Our spotlight article in this issue is on the Indian Neighbourhood, including its extended environs. India must lead its neighbours towards a mutually beneficial strategy that turns South Asia into a resilient and integrated region. India must again expand its horizon when we talk of the ‘Indian Neighbourhood.’ We have inputs from our Indian subject matter experts and foreign experts.

Technology’s influence on the Next Generation of Warfare is based on the address of Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhary, PVSM, AVSM, VM, ADC, Chief of Air Staff, India, at the 9th Synergia Conclave.

We also got together high-ranking experts from Saudi Arabia and Israel to have a conversation on the Gaza War to find out what the future holds for the Middle East once the dust and debris of the fighting in Gaza settles down. We also look at the potential of driverless cars, how they can be assimilated into society, and the role of the Metaverse in reshaping futures. We have analysed some long-term goals for India in deep technology.

We hope our esteemed readers will continue supporting us as we strive to further evidence-based research on strategic issues with global resonance.

Sincerely yours

Maj. Gen. Ajay Sah Chief Information Officer

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FEATURED TECHNOLOGY

COVER STORY : 2023: THE YEAR THAT WAS

TECH DIPLOMACY: THE VIEW FROM BERLIN There is a growing concern in Germany about what technology, especially AI-driven Information Technology, will mean in the future.

PAGE 30

2023: THE YEAR THAT WAS

2023 brought to the fore new challenges and some achievements, but overall, it was a fair year for India.

PAGE 03 SPOTLIGHT

VIRTUAL HORIZONS

DRIVERLESS CARS A DISRUPTIVE DREAM

The role of the Metaverse in reshaping futures cannot be side-lined if the ethical use of this technology has to be ensured.

How will the potential of driverless cars be assimilated into society?

PAGE 33

PAGE 36

DEEP TECHNOLOGY AND LONG-TERM GOALS “The national policy-shaping a country’s semiconductor policy must be advised by people who know this industry well.”

PAGE 39

INDIA’S NEIGHBOURHOOD: OPPORTUNITIES

ECONOMICS

It is imperative that India leads its neighbours towards a mutually beneficial strategy that turns South Asia into a resilient and integrated region.

PAGE 06

AN EXPANDED VISION NEEDED

CHALLENGES IN BILATERAL COOPERATION

India must again expand its horizon when we talk of the ‘Indian Neighbourhood.’

PAGE 08

Bangladesh is an effective partner in India’s Look East policy

RIDING THE WAVE OF INDIA’S GROWTH

INDIA-LANKA: A CATALYST FOR SOUTH ASIA

Nepal and India’s past, present and future are connected!

Economic integration between India and Sri Lanka is the key.

PAGE 19

PAGE 17

ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT

PAGE 15

COP28: REKINDLING HOPE

The 28th edition of COP has set a clear direction for climate goals but lacks the necessary commitments for follow-through.

PAGE 45

THE EXTENDED NEIGHBOURHOOD

HEALTH CARE

Thailand - India Defence Cooperation PAGE 22 SECURITY

THE LONE RANGER Amidst heavy global headwinds, the Indian economy did well in 2023, strengthening the global prediction as a harbinger of growth and positivity.

PAGE 41

A FRESH PANDEMIC ON THE HORIZON? A sudden surge in Mycoplasma Pneumonia cases set alarm bells ringing worldwide as fears of yet another pandemic spread globally.

GEOPOLITICS

PAGE 49 ANALYSIS

GAZA - A CONVERSATION AEROSPACE AND DEFENCE

ASEAN: SETTING AN EXAMPLE

Technology’s influence on the Next Generation of Warfare

“Wars reflect geopolitical incompetence; Peace reflects geopolitical competence.”

PAGE 28

PAGE 25

What does the future hold for the Middle East once the dust and debris of the fighting in Gaza settles down?

PAGE 52

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

2023: THE YEAR THAT WAS

2023 brought to the fore new challenges and some achievements, but overall, it was a fair year for India.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION RES E A RCH

T E A M

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rom scorching weather to a devastating war, from superpower rivalries to an outburst of AI, 2023 has been an eventful year.

While we did not see the end of the Ukraine conflict or put COVID-19 to a final rest, the October 7th assault by Hamas threw a new war on our laps!

We quickly scan the major events and factors that shaped 2023 in terms of neighbourhood challenges, security shocks, technology leaps, economic considerations, climate and energy, geopolitical tensions, and healthcare.

GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS In the geopolitical domain, the U.S.-China rivalry continued to play out in different spheres as the two nations vied for global influence. This ranged from Washington further restricting trade with China to tensions in Southeast Asia between allies China, North Korea, and Russia on the one hand and nations like Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and South Korea, allied with the US on the other hand. This tension had intensified since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Russia and China tightening ties in the post-Ukraine polarised global order. The war in Gaza has given an opportunity for Russia and, to an extent, China to pressurise the U.S. and push it into a corner with its unstinted support for Israel. As a strategic partner of both the U.S. and Israel,

On a positive note, India made history with Chandrayaan 3, the first space mission to land on the Moon’s south pole. With this feat, India became the fourth country to land a spacecraft on the Moon, joining the United States, Russia, and China.

India finds itself in an uncomfortable position with domestic opinion within the country divided.

India witnessed the effects of this polarisation firsthand in its G20 presidency. Opposing agendas arising from the Ukraine issue made it challenging to achieve a consensus. On a different note, India’s unique G20 presidency was a noteworthy success, with events spanning across the country and a consensus reached in the Delhi Declaration despite differences. India could play a global mediator, particularly because it refused to take sides on Ukraine. It also brought pertinent global south considerations to the table and successfully advocated for the African Union to join the G20.

NEIGHBOURHOOD WORRIES Through 2023, India faced key challenges in its neighbourhood and, above all, the growing influence of a powerful neighbour and regional rival - China.

While several countries in the neighbourhood are leaning closer to China and away from India, the Maldives is the most notable example –the new government is

2023: THE YEAR THAT WAS

markedly pro-China and anti-India. Pressure tactics on Bhutan to resolve the border issue while keeping India away have rung alarm bells in New Delhi. At a structural level, the successful penetration of BRI and Chinese investments into India’s neighbours threatens to weaken the historical Indian influence in these countries.

At the strategic level, the race to dominate the maritime space in the Indian Ocean has become fiercer as the PLAN sends more of its platforms, including submarines and spy ships, into the Northern Indian Ocean and close to Indian waters while a growing blue water Indian Navy tries to maintain its primacy in Maritime Situational Dominance over the IOR. Diplomatically, China’s deep pockets are something our diplomats find hard to match to control the drift of our neighbours towards Beijing.

Beyond our shores, India’s cosy relationship with the West also suffered some serious setbacks. Firstly, the public accusations by the Canadian prime minister set off a storm in India, which, while giving a feel-good feeling to the jingoistic element of the domestic audience, does not bode well for India’s reputation as an internationally acknowledged nation with respect for the rule of the law. The recent accusations by the U.S. along the same lines only add to the concern. Hopefully, a mature Indian foreign policy response to these allegations will settle ruffled international feathers in 2024.

SECURITY SHOCKS As the war in Ukraine drones on, a new conflict in the Middle East puts India on a sticky wicket. Its strategic partner, Israel, was rudely and bloodily surprised on a bright and sunny Saturday morning, provoking it to launch one of the most ruthless revenge strikes in the convoluted history of the region.

While India initially criticised the cowardly terrorist strike, later, as the fighting got extended and civilians started dying in large numbers, India had to support the

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calls for a humanitarian pause and cessation of bombing by Israel. Conscious of its economic relations with the Middle East, India has maintained a studied silence on the conflict while making genuine humanitarian gestures to alleviate the sufferings of the innocents. Of course, the Indian economy remains on tenterhooks as the Gaza fighting has the potential to turn into a larger conflagration if the recent attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea are any indicator.

Meanwhile, amidst US-China tensions, the U.S., leading in the global semiconductor market, recently issued major restrictions on the sale of advanced chips and chip-making equipment to China to curtail its access to these critical technologies. According to the Biden administration, the export controls aim to prevent the Chinese military from using sophisticated American-made chips. In turn, China accuses the U.S. of using export restrictions to block its technological advancement. High-performance U.S. semiconductor chips are used to build supercomputers that power AI platforms, which can be used for military purposes like designing advanced weapons, planning smart wars, and AI-assisted decision-making in operations. These developments provide an opportunity for India.

TECHNOLOGY LEAPS On the technology front, artificial intelligence (AI) went mainstream with Chat GPT, awakening the public to the advances of AI tools as governments, companies, and individuals moved to make use of it. A slew of worries arose as these new AI tools churned out verbal content, images, music, and synthesised voices - raising questions about livelihoods and legalities for artists and other professionals.

AI-generated deep fakes entered election campaigns and war footage of Ukraine and Gaza. Being an entirely virgin frontier, India can leverage its technological advantages to make a mark in this field. Bangalore can play a role in this dream.

2023: THE YEAR THAT WAS

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opining that it marks the beginning of the end of fossil fuels. Others point out that it is full of loopholes that give credence to fossil fuels, and it does not adequately support climate adaptation for those most vulnerable to climate change and energy transition for developing countries. A loss and damage fund was set up with several nations pledging varying amounts to it, including a petro-state, the United Arab Emirates, Germany, the European Union, Britain, the United States, and Japan.

As a major developing nation with a growing economy, India played a pivotal role in shaping COP28’s discussions. While acknowledging the urgency of climate action, India emphasised the necessity for a balanced approach, considering the developmental aspirations of countries experiencing economic growth.

On a positive note, India made history with Chandrayaan 3, the first space mission to land on the Moon’s south pole. With this feat, India became the fourth country to land a spacecraft on the Moon, joining the United States, Russia, and China.

ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS India overtook China as the largest population in the world; whether this is an achievement or a liability is how we harness these millions. India’s burgeoning and younger demography could be a blessing or a curse, depending on whether it can offer its young population education and employment.

As the year drew to a close, India was the Lone Ranger in the economic arena; having secured its position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy over the past two years, India is expected to maintain this status in 2024. Projections from the International Monetary Fund (“World Economic Outlook,” IMF, October 2023) indicate that the real gross domestic product is set to witness a growth of over 6 per cent in both 2023 and 2024. This anticipated compound annual growth rate surpasses that of China (4-5 per cent), doubles the global economy’s pace (3 per cent), and quadruples the growth rate of advanced economies (1.5 per cent)

CLIMATE AND ENERGY According to scientists, 2023 has been the hottest year on record with global temperatures surpassing records. Extreme weather events across the globe have demonstrated that climate change is here and now.

These range from wildfires and heat waves to severe drought to unprecedented floods.

In an unprecedented climate deal, almost 200 countries agreed to a decision calling on nations to transition away from fossil fuels at COP 28. The summit witnessed two weeks of negotiations fraught with differences. When COP 28 President Sultan Al Jaber slammed the gavel to pass the final decision, the delegates gave an ovation, and the UN climate chief hugged him. Some hail the decision as historic, optimistically

India called for developed nations to provide increased financial and technological support to aid developing nations in transitioning to cleaner energy sources. This stance resonated with many developing countries facing the challenge of reconciling economic growth with environmental sustainability.

HEALTHCARE CONCERNS In the healthcare domain, we witnessed a surge in respiratory illnesses and a mysterious wave of pneumonia in China. Many described it as a typical winter surge in respiratory infections since people were more susceptible to infections after three years of COVID lockdowns and restrictions. This resurge of respiratory infections after lifting pandemic restrictions has been witnessed in other countries, such as a flu wave in the U.S. in November 2022, with the highest number of people hospitalised with flu in the country since 2010.

Since China had the longest and most severe COVID-19 lockdown, many maintain that people had less opportunity to develop immunity to these seasonal infections, a phenomenon referred to as “immunity debt”. However, China’s pneumonia outbreak (caused by the Mycoplasma bacterium or “walking pneumonia”) is unique, and we have yet to discover how concerned we should be about it.

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

INDIA’S NEIGHBOURHOOD: OPPORTUNITIES

It is imperative that India leads its neighbours towards a mutually beneficial strategy that turns South Asia into a resilient and integrated region Lt Gen G A V Reddy AVSM, SC, VSM (Retd) is the former Deputy Chief of Integrated Defense Staff, DG-DIA and Strategic Advisor at Synergia Foundation.

T

he combined population of South Asia (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka) is approximately 2 billion, around 25 per cent of the global population (8 billion). This gives a broad idea of the region’s potential, taking only human resources into account. But has this potential been tapped in the right measure?

The region is blessed with vast resources and domain expertise, including geo-proximity, sustained economic growth, technology prowess, including technology-savvy aspiring youth, and historical and cultural bondages backed by common values and interests. Yet, why is it that the region is often tagged by some quarters as the least integrated region in the world, lacking a common vision to shape enduring and long-term strategic convergence on mutually benefitting relations?

Do we lack a cohesive long-term vision as a group of nations in the region? Are we still struggling to forge regional bonds? Are there ways to surmount these challenges and progress?

NEIGHBOURHOOD FIRST POLICY In the historical context, India’s Neighbourhood First Policy (NFP) has evolved with time since its independence. It came to the fore for the first time in a speech made in the Indian parliament by then Prime

The region is blessed with vast resources and domain expertise, including geo-proximity, sustained economic growth, technology prowess, including technology-savvy aspiring youth, and historical and cultural bondages backed by common values and interests. Yet, why is it that the region is often tagged by some quarters as the least integrated region in the world, lacking a common vision to shape enduring and long-term strategic convergence on mutually benefitting relations?

Minister Jawaharlal Nehru on January 6th, 1950, in the context of Nepal. He is on record stating, “ ... As much as we appreciate the independence of Nepal, we cannot allow anything to go wrong in Nepal or permit that barrier to be crossed or weakened because that would be a risk to our own security.” Since then, this NFP gradually extended to the Himalayan states of Bhutan and Sikkim (then independent) and subsequently to Pakistan (including East Pakistan) and Sri Lanka.

During the Indira Gandhi government, India’s security concern grew, and the focus became the “greater challenges to New Delhi’s geostrategy in the region.’’

We saw the merging of Sikkim as a state of the Indian Union and the creation of Bangladesh. While these were

INDIA’S NEIGHBOURHOOD: OPPORTUNITIES

the first signs of a more assertive Indian foreign policy, it still did not dilute the concern that India courted for the overall well-being of the region, vindicated by the formation of SAARC in 1985.

However, the high water mark of the NFP was the Gujral Doctrine, forged by Prime Minister IK Gujral during his short-lived premiership (April 1997 to March 1998). The Gujral Doctrine tried to put the smaller neighbours at ease with its five principles: No reciprocity expected by India from neighbours for any of its gestures, no one to allow their territory to harm another in the region, no external interference in another’s domestic affairs, respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty of each other and lastly, all disagreements must be resolved through peaceful bilateral dialogue.

With the ushering in of the Modi government in 2014 with a thumping majority and an economically growing India, the NFP had a tinge of self-confidence.

The guiding principle behind the NFP was the realisation that if India wishes to grow out of the region as an extra-regional and global player, it must put in order its affairs not only in its immediate neighbourhood but also in the extended neighbourhood. India had to manage its neighbourhood policy with a clear understanding of the asymmetry with its neighbours in population, economy and military power. In the same vein, the ‘Look East’ policy (encompassing SE Asian nations) was transformed into the ‘Act East’ policy, sending a strong signal that India would be more proactive in the larger East Asian context.

Thus, we see that the NFP has renewed the impetus to strengthen relations with its neighbours. The policy aims to ensure peace, prosperity and tranquillity in the sub-region. India aims to forge sustained relations with neighbours with numerous advantages of geo-proximity and historical, cultural and religious bondages. Indian concerted efforts to shape the enduring, long-term strategic convergence on mutually benefiting relationships are highly appreciated by the neighbourhood. The recent initiatives towards strengthening bilateral ties and integrating the region are steps in the right direction in the era of interdependence.

FUTURE COURSE FOR NFP Some of the guiding rails for the NFP in the current scenario are as follows: (a) Recognise the combined strength of nations in the form of opportunities and identify impediments to corroboration and integration. (b) Craft a strategy to build strategic partnerships, integrate economies, facilitate techno-diplomacy and ensure a regional security framework. (c) With its human resources, geographical location dominating the Indian Ocean, and the crucial sea lanes to the oil-rich the Persian Gulf and the markets of SE Asia, we need to leverage the region’s ability to alter the geopolitical landscape of Asia.

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(d) We need regional solutions to regional problems. No nation ever has all the resources they need.

Hence, leveraging collective strengths, wisdom, interests and common concerns is a must, to benefit millions of the region. (e) India should be mindful of sovereign sensitivity of neighbours, bridge trust deficit and invest in enduring bilateral relationship. (f) We should strive to meet demand driven, people friendly and mutually benificial aspirations of neighbourhood.

There are many geopolitical irritants between the nations forming part of India’s immediate neighbourhood, ranging from outright hostility teetering on the edge of open conflict with Pakistan and undisguised antagonism with a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan to niggling disputes over fishing rights on coastal waters and water sharing or territorial disputes.

Assessment Attaining common goals of peace, prosperity and security in the region is only feasible by focusing on convergence and working on a process-based approach to resolving contentious issues. Of course, our smaller neighbours always expect New Delhi to take the first step forward and be more magnanimous in our bargaining. The recent cooperation that came spontaneously from India to pull Sri Lanka out of its economic abyss could well be the template for India’s NFP in the future.

Undoubtedly, India is one of the few bright spots not only in Asia but also in a larger global context, especially amid all the geopolitical churning and de-coupling & de-risking despondency that reigns over much of the globe. The region, therefore, must leverage Indian strengths, expertise and resources to build capacities in the region and not look at India as a threat or a domineering ‘Big Brother.’

Integration of region based on mutual trust, transparency and equity for all stakeholder nations serves as the foundational block. Thus, creating a conducive environment for pursuing a shared vision for the future and attaining common goals is imperative.

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

AN EXPANDED VISION NEEDED

India must again expand its horizon when we talk of the ‘Indian Neighbourhood.’

This article is based on the views expressed

by Ambassador Pankaj Saran during the 9th Synergia Conclave.

O

ur neighbourhood occupies a central position in Indian foreign and strategic policy. When we look at the history of our region, one of the things we need to recall is that till a few hundred years ago, India was effectively a genuine Eurasian or Central Asian power. India’s borders were contiguous with Iran, the Russian heartland, and Tibet. Only after the British came did we find artificial lines bound us.

We have been a victim of three lines in our security policy: the Durand Line, McMahon Line and the Radcliffe Line. These lines, without any consensus of Indian public opinion, fragmented our region, a contiguous landmass going right up to Mongolia and the Russian heartland. So, today, we have fragmentation in the form of Pakistan and Bangladesh.

While this fragmentation is only a recent chapter in the relatively long history of the Indian subcontinent, it is what we have grappled with for most of the last 75 years.

It is no accident that in the first few decades of the drawing of the Radcliffe Line, India had to fight four wars. These were all a part of the turbulence of this fragmentation that we were subject to.

The Indian neighbourhood could probably be sub-categorised into five sub-regions. The first is the western frontier, which is Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Only with a broad canvas of India’s neighbourhood etched in our minds, can the right decisions to shape the right response be taken in New Delhi.

And perhaps the most troubled in terms of the relationship. The second is the Himalayan buffers, which are Nepal and Bhutan. The third is the Bay of Bengal states, Bangladesh and Myanmar. The fourth is the Indian Ocean region littorals – including Sri Lanka, Maldives, Seychelles and Mauritius. Finally, the extended neighbourhood stretching from the Suez Canal to the South China Sea comprises interconnected regions, including West Asia/the Gulf, Central Asia, SE Asia and the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

BEYOND A CLOSED SUB-CONTINENTAL CONTEXT The trend over the years has been to shrink the strategic space and forge policies for a closed subcontinent ecosystem from a purely sovereign geographical territorial context. This mindset has to change.

Therefore, while respecting the current geopolitical realities, India’s neighbourhood outreach must not ignore what the subcontinent used to be including the historical boundaries of India.

This gives a tangible shape to India’s ‘Immediate Neighbourhood’ and the ‘Extended Neighbourhood.’

Unfortunately, for various reasons, the Indian strategic elites and policymakers have been compelled, and their attention was forced on a very, very narrow sliv-

AN EXPANDED VISION NEEDED

er of territory around the Indian landmass. India must again expand its horizon when we talk of the Indian Neighbourhood. Fortunately, a drift in that direction has occurred in the last few years, where this concept has been reviewed and, to an extent, revised. For example, the ‘Look East’ policy was put in place in 1992, driven by exogenous events- the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Indian financial collapse of 1991. A turn of events compelled us to re-establish our linkages with East Asia.

However, we continued to lag in so far as Central Asia was concerned, allowing a great deal of time to waste in not giving Central Asia the attention it merits; remember, this was another one of the immediate contiguous neighbours! Today, Indian foreign policy has tried to make the necessary corrections, and there is a much more focused thrust towards Central Asia.

Towards India’s West, the Gulf and the Arab world is another area where India is focussing fairly significantly; the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC) would be the most notable outcome of this policy once it matures, provided it survives the ongoing turmoil of the October 7th Gaza attack.

Last but not least, India sees its boundaries expand in the maritime domain, particularly the littorals of the Indian Ocean region.

Only with this broad canvas of India’s neighbourhood etched in our minds can the right decisions to shape the right response be taken in New Delhi.

LEARNING TO LIVE WITH NEIGHBOURS It’s axiomatic for any large country to rise. In this natural process, the first order of business is to ensure that it has good or healthy relations, or at least normal relations with its immediate neighbours.

Now, this is not easy, as many other large countries have discovered - whether it is the United States, China, Russia, or even a country like Iran or Israel, as we are noticing. Living with your neighbours is not easy; it requires a lot of effort, lots of skill and deep understanding.

Just because we may share language, food and culture, we may assume that we understand our neighbours; this is the surest way towards grave errors in judgement and policy. Another reality, hard to ignore, is the history of ‘highs and lows’ which makes it imperative to share this uneven relationship again. What must be studied closely is whether these highs and lows have been inevitable or were a consequence of mistakes made only by the Indian side. To understand this perspective, it is important to look at ourselves through the eyes of our neighbours.

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HOW DO INDIA’S NEIGHBOURS SEE IT? Here, the issue of identity becomes critical. The fact is that many of India’s neighbours have had to define their identity in relation to India. The historical narrative underpinning their nationalisms has often been derived from their anxiety to differentiate themselves from the Indian mega-narrative.

If India is a civilisational construct embracing unity amid vast diversity, each of its neighbours has to accentuate its particularism. If separateness is not established, what distinguishes these countries from the Indian state? These are some of the elements that also impact how India and its neighbours interact.

There is also this feature of the desire of India’s neighbours to engage in the policy of external balancing. They seek extra-regional intervention because Indian hard power far outweighs the collective power of all its regional neighbours, making external balancing an important element of policy choices made by the smaller neighbours.

Lastly, given the history and geography of this region, India is confronted with a generally fragile neighbourhood. In this sense, the fragility of the state structures in the neighbours and the neighbourhood is also a fact of life. And then dealing with such fragile states with limited capacities is a challenge for them and how India deals with such smaller neighbours.

FORGING A NEIGHBOURHOOD FIRST POLICY This brings us to the main issue: the principal characteristics of the neighbourhood policy that India has pursued. One of the more recent aspects has been the transition from regionalism (SAARC) to sub-regionalism (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India Nepal Initiative or BBIN and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation or BIMSTEC) to bilateralism.

The SAARC experiment was a new idea that Bangladesh initiated. We lived with it for many years, through its several challenges, largely on account of the tensions between India and Pakistan. But at some stage, because of various events, SAARC was put on the back burner

by India. India then decided to proceed with the principle of the ‘coalition of the willing’; those countries who were willing to participate in the integration and neighbourhood projects, India decided to go along with them. This gave birth to organisations such as the BBIN and the BIMSTEC. The fundamental building block of each Indian neighbourhood policy is the bilateral approach.

Therefore, the Indian bilateral relationships with each of the neighbours proceeded at different pace, in

AN EXPANDED VISION NEEDED

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different forms, and each has its own peculiarities. This will continue because the fact is that each of our neighbours’ commands and demands different approaches.

Nepal. We are seeing power lines coming up between India and Bangladesh, India and Bhutan, India and Nepal.

Secondly, India seems to be now emerging as an effective and credible first responder to the neighbourhood, not just in terms of Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR), in terms of natural disasters or natural calamities, but also more recently in terms of stepping in when there is an economic crisis as for example in Sri Lanka or Nepal.

And, of course, hydropower is something that we have lived with for many years in Bhutan. We are hoping that this model will begin with Nepal as well. Integration is also taking place in trade, finance, the increasing use of the rupee and, of course, in the cultural field such as Buddhism, a real common thread that runs across the subcontinent. The people-to-people relationship continues at different paces, but it is in fairly substantial numbers. The biggest example is in the case of Bangladesh.

The Indian role in the Covid pandemic and, more recently, in the last few years, how the Indian state has contributed to the evacuation of nationals of many of the neighbouring countries from conflict zones is well acknowledged not only in the neighbourhood but also in the larger global context.

FORMS OF INTEGRATION A common narrative doing the rounds in India and particularly the West is that South Asia is the least integrated; its factuality can be debated.

How do you define integration? The hub and spoke model is one way to look at how integrated India is with each of its neighbours. But if you look at how integrated, for example, Nepal is with Bhutan or Sri Lanka or how integrated Bangladesh is with Afghanistan, you get a different picture.

The question is whether the objective realities of these smaller countries allow the kind of integration we would desire. For example, how much can Bangladesh trade with Afghanistan? How much can Nepal trade with Sri Lanka? So, we have to keep these realities in mind. But in the Indian approach to integration, multiple forms of integration have been developing very rapidly.

THE CHALLENGES FOR THE FUTURE Lastly, the nature of threats. When we look at India’s relationships with neighbours, it is worth considering and analysing why a certain relationship is more successful than others. When a neighbour of India acknowledges and takes into account India’s security interests, that invariably paves the way for a much healthier overall bilateral relationship. So, sensitivity to each other’s security concerns is actually a critical aspect and an essential condition for the flowering of relationships between India and its neighbours.

The kind of threats that India has faced vis-a-vis its neighbours include, of course, terrorism. Unfortunately, the use of India’s smaller neighbours as proxies by external powers or inimical powers, export of internal instability from those countries into India, threats to India’s social fabric and all this is manifested through aspects such as insurgencies, movement of refugees, illegal migration, human and drug trafficking. And in the coming period, we will all face the threat of climate change and global warming, which will impact all of us.

This integration covers physical cross-border infrastructure at the minimum and the base level. India is taking measures to develop this physical cross-border infrastructure for trade.

But when we talk about the Indian Neighbourhood First Policy, the principal thesis is that India will do whatever it takes to improve its relations with its neighbours, number one. Number two: India believes it offers the neighbours an opportunity to ride the wave of Indian growth.

It is still a work in progress - it is highly unsatisfactory in some regions and some borders. In some, there is a move to improve infrastructure and energy, whether it is oil pipelines - we see them now in Bangladesh and

Here, it would be appropriate to take a leaf from the Chinese playbook; as the Chinese put it, in terms of their neighbourhood, when the wave comes, and the big boat is sailing, we would like the smaller boats to sail along with us. The same applies to India; when India is a stable entity growing well, it offers a natural opportunity for its neighbours to grow along with it.

AMBASSADOR PANKAJ SARAN Convenor NatStrat, Member - National Security Advisory Board & Former Deputy National Security Advisor India

AN EXPANDED VISION NEEDED

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EXPERT COMMENTS DEALING WITH A CHANGING WORLD We need to recognise the world has changed. Much of the analysis of global relations is along Cold War templates. We are not yet ready for a new order.

Everyone talks about a rules-based international order, which for each country means the rules they want to follow and little else. We see this in the breakdown of European security architecture, such as in the Ukraine war and the breakdown of relationships in West Asia – which is what the latest conflict in West Asia is about.

Are we not a part of Asia-Pacific? We talk about the Indo-Pacific because our neighbourhood has as much interest in the Indian and Pacific Oceans as the group of countries collected in San Francisco (APEC US 2023).

We need to recognise this lacuna in dealing with the global order. In addition to objective affinities and reasons for us to collaborate, we also need to recognise domestic politics that colour our relations.

About China – it’s inevitable that two big neighbours will compete for space. We need to bring maturity to this competition. Globalisation is moving towards securitisation. Assistance to us will be far more difficult as people look to assist war-torn countries. In our neighbourhood, some of us are maritime countries, some continental. India is both.

Much of our current dynamics are shaped by U.S. efforts to keep us away from China. We have to be very careful about how we navigate this in our neighbourhood. One of the dangers is the technological divide.

We will get caught in it. Whether it’s military cooperation, telecom or cyber security, a technological divide the competition between the U.S. and China will impact us, and our regional dialogue has to include this. We need to look at this far more than we do in a bilateral sense with our neighbours.

People talk about the comparative capability of China and India to project power in their respective regions. I don’t think we should be talking about projection of power as much as influence. Money power is not the sole influencer; influence has a much broader base.

AMBASSADOR P S RAGHAVAN

Chairman - National Security Advisory Board, India

EXPERT COMMENTS Our goal remains to create technology that is Indian with our IP, which is fully owned by us. we have seen this happening where when you’re looking at exporting products from India. This is a goal that this country has which is also an important arm of our policy. The biggest challenge is that there will always be restrictions from the country of origin.

The challenge is going to be how do we create Indian IP and Indian technology?

One aspect of that is also the software licensing. And I think software as a product and license is a thing that we need to really work on as a country in terms of policy because that will have an impact in terms of what we can call as our IP or patent. So, from a foreign policy standpoint, this is one aspect we need to really work.

So from a country standpoint, I think creating IP of our own is critical in defence diplomacy as a whole.

NEELESH TUNGAR Chief Operating Officer at Defence & Aerospace, Bharat Forge Limited

AN EXPANDED VISION NEEDED

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EXPERT COMMENTS TECHNOLOGICAL INTEGRATION There is a broad consensus that there is a need for close economic and connectivity cooperation in the region. This connectivity would be based on the Internet and the cyber networks, which are essential for not only our regional well-being but also for national security. As technology has matured and made communication devices readily available, the surface areas for attacks have also expanded.

India has been facing persistent attacks on its critical information infrastructure, and the experience we have gained can be shared with our neighbours. It is not that these attacks have been confined to India; other countries have been attacked, particularly Nepal and Sri Lanka, with serious consequences.

VULNERABILITIES The connectivity provided by the Internet in a globalised economy has created vulnerabilities that have been exploited for directing well-honed attacks either for criminal gains or for sheer disruption. We can only look at the kind of attacks that have taken place recently on the U.S.-based entity of the International Chinese Bank of Commerce, which disrupted the financial services completely of that bank, and on DP World in Australia, which has affected port movements and operations.

While protocols are evolving among nations to tackle cybercrime, including ransomware and cyber fraud, protecting critical information infrastructure remains an area that needs to be brought into sharp focus for regional cooperation. Currently, it is covered under a broad spectrum of cyber security through national computer emergency response teams. It is my case that specific arrangements be made to cover the critical information infrastructure.

WHY COOPERATION? Why do we need cooperation? This is because norms have yet to evolve among nations on cyber behaviour.

The anonymity the net provides makes attribution difficult, which has encouraged states and rogue elements to engage in cyber-attacks. Deterrence is yet to emerge as a restraining factor for delinquent behaviour, particularly for non-state actors. Moreover, a major attack on critical infrastructure can undermine an entire region with interconnected economies.

A breakdown of cargo handling in a port can disrupt entire

ALOK JOSHI

supply chains. Similarly, attacks on financial institutions could undermine public confidence. Shutting down control systems and power plants could adversely impact the manufacturing sector. The possible scenarios are endless at times. It is argued that cyber-attacks are bloodless, and thereby, deterrence of the magnitude required, for example, for nuclear weapons, may not be required.

However, the recent attacks on the health sector in India and the UK belies that aspect. At times, cyber security is also conflated with incident response. There is a general feeling that if all safety protocols are followed, it would secure cyberspace, particularly if there is enough capacity for an incident response. However, there is a qualitative difference in preparing for and investigating a cyber incident response from protecting a critical information infrastructure, responding to attacks on it, and then building resilience to recover from them.

The critical infrastructure demands a focused approach: sector advice in building up capacities to monitor, detect and thwart cyber threats with the capability to respond, recover and resume operations in the least possible downtime.

THE WAY AHEAD So, what needs to be done? Trust is vital for any cooperation and there is a need to build it assiduously through various measures. To begin with, exchange of situational awareness and identifying attack vectors.

Building up a library for identification is the starting point. Joint training is also required, including through academia and private industry. Setting up arrangements to exchange information in real time, working out recovery protocols and conducting joint tabletop exercises. Apart from that, more importantly, post-incident evaluation. These are the areas where cooperation is required and can be built up. Cooperation on mitigation measures, including working on artificial intelligence solutions for monitoring network behaviour and identifying threat sources well in advance, is another area where regional cooperation can complement indigenous efforts.

In conclusion, cyber security challenges demand close cooperation. No single agency or nation can work independently on this issue. We need to work out a regional approach as our vulnerabilities increase, and we seek to integrate our economies. Our dependencies should be a source of our strength in the region rather than an opportunity for malevolent elements to exploit them through cyberspace

Member, National Security Advisory Board & Former Secretary of R&AW, India

AN EXPANDED VISION NEEDED

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EXPERT COMMENTS EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES The manufacturing industry has seized the opportunity for growth and we hope to replicate the success in other sectors like the defence and space sectors. In that space, we’ve moved ahead a little faster, and the successes are visible. However, there are a few areas that we have to overcome.

First, in terms of manufacturing, there are always supply chains that go beyond borders. So sometimes, there’s a disruption of the supply chain. So, having builtin some amount of protection, we’re doing a little bit more work on that. Recently we’ve announced getting into semiconductors ourselves, along with the Tata Group and two other players.

That’s one grey area we felt needed capacity and supply augmentation. We are working on other areas, such as composites and sensor manufacturing ecosystems, which frankly do not exist in India.

When you look at composites, the entire civil aviation and space sectors depend on the growth of the composites industry.

No country is an island, so when you set about creating an industry, you have to develop supply chains within your own country and in friendly countries.

We also need to look at our own policies in certain areas. You need business continuity for any industry to flourish and R&D to grow. From a shareholder perspective, from a board perspective, there is a return on the investment to be made. If not this sector, then the next.

Everyone would like to move on to a faster-moving sector.

So, for defence and security manufacturing - military-industrial complex as it is referred to - obviously, a shorter ordering cycle of faster execution will enable the entire thing. There’s also something that we’ve all seen in the recent past: you can have extremely sophisticated technology developments taking place, only to have this being beaten either by sheer brute force, as was recently seen in West Asia.

There are also technologies taking shape in quantum computing and quantum communication. Those are firmly on our radar, as are spatial language technologies. That’s more applicable to mosaic warfare, which mostly exists in theory today. These are technologies being developed and tested. It will take some time, provided there is continuity of business.

Our strategy is to rely on appropriate technology and frugal engineering and keep the costs low without the frills and fancies. If you look at countries in the news for their weapon systems, drones, etc., and if you closely examine them, they’re all based on frugal engineering.

VIKAS KHITHA Vice President and Head Corporate L&T Defence

EXPERT COMMENTS HOW CAN INDIA HAVE ITS OWN NEXT GENERATION CYBER SECURITY PLATFORM?

menting that with several banks and so on. We can extend this technology through satellites, through optical fibres as well as wireless networks.

The idea is that quantum technology will protect India’s critical infrastructure, whether it is optical fibre networks, whether it is the Internet, we are also imple-

This will allow us to have an extended cyber security platform.

MR. SUNIL GUPTA,

CEO & Co-Founder, QNu Labs

AN EXPANDED VISION NEEDED

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EXPERT COMMENTS NON-TRADITIONAL NATIONAL SECURITY Importance of non-traditional security factors: traditional security factors are well-developed. These need more attention.

Non-traditional security factors consist of water, climate, environment, supply chain, health and family welfare, verticals creating wealth like pharmaceuticals and use of cyber security and digital technology.

India should become a thought leader in non-traditional security. It should also provide a platform for its neighbours to participate in development activities irrespective of their size.

The ocean economy is central to India. The blue economy is a new pillar of economic activity. Ministry of Earth Sciences has been doing unique work in this area.

For example – Bangladesh has a vibrant project for its blue economy. It has also established scientific collaboration with other

countries. Climate change and rising water tables are expected to impact coastal populations, putting pressure on existing agricultural capacity. Blue economy can buttress agricultural production.

We neglect it at our peril; China will exploit marine resources more than before. Therefore, India should participate in Bangladesh’s marine resources programme.

There is an overwhelming desire for closer cooperation with India in the government and private sector. Areas of potential are manifold– marine manufacturing, marine renewable energy, marine construction, blue biotechnology and pharmaceuticals.

Improving this sector will go a long way in bolstering growth and increasing contribution to the export market.

Nepal and Bhutan are two countries that can become leaders in renewable energy production. Hydropower cooperation has been an important pillar of the Indo-Bhutan partnership.

In all this, Indian MSMEs can play a crucial role by collaborating with our smaller neighbours.

P M HEBLIKAR

Member, Governing Council, Centre for National Security Studies (CNSS) Bangalore

EXPERT COMMENTS So today you have seen a lot of countries talking about AI and AI security. We built that technology ground up.

- because if we are not going to, then adversaries will exploit it.

While everybody talks about AI security, our company built that technology ground up. We went ahead and built the defensive measures.

For nations, it is paramount that they not only protect the critical infrastructure but also take advantage of AI.

And today, the product is protecting 40-plus organisations across the world in banking, health care, telecom, manufacturing, and public infrastructure.

AI-related attacks are already happening. The same person with a keyboard and monitor has now become a soldier who can take offensive and defensive measures.

We made it scalable; we made it affordable. That means anybody building an AI system can get it secured today. And our vision is: secure AI systems of the world

MANOJ PARMAR

Founder & CEO, AI Shield

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

CHALLENGES IN BILATERAL COOPERATION Bangladesh is an effective partner in India’s Look East policy This article is based on the views expressed by Lt General MA Hossain during the 9th Synergia Conclave.

B

angladesh and India share a common history, language, culture, food, music, literature, and values. 1971 saw the peak of bonding with the Indian Armed forces, shedding blood with the freedom fighters of Bangladesh.

Bilateral relations are paramount regarding political, economic, cultural and security dimensions. Cooperation is bilateral, regional and beyond the region as far as Bangladesh and India are concerned.

Regarding India’s Neighbourhood Policy, Bangladesh is an effective partner within India’s Look East policy, incorporating connectivity, security, and the development of its northeast states close to Bangladesh, formerly known as Seven Sisters.

We have tried to find answers to three questions: What are the major areas in Bangladesh and India in terms of bilateral cooperation?

What are the major challenges, and what steps can be taken to improve bilateral cooperation to chart our future in a predictable positive course?

BORDER MANAGEMENT Bangladesh and India share a 4000-plus km land border and successfully concluded the boundary agreement in 2015. It was a colossal effort, but even individual maps were exchanged. The exchange of over 160 land

Bangladesh is an effective partner within India’s Look East policy, incorporating connectivity, security, and the development of its northeast states close to Bangladesh, formerly known as Seven Sisters. enclaves was a hanging issue right from the British period going back to the legacy of playing chess between two zamindars of the North and Rampur areas. We have also settled the maritime boundary between Bangladesh and India as per the UNCLOS. The security cooperation between our two countries is spread over intelligence-sharing, combating terrorism and maritime cooperation. We intend to have a crime-free, incident-free border.

The border forces, security agencies, and law enforcement agencies have taken various confidence-building measures. The cooperation is wonderfully working at every level and improving as the days pass.

COOPERATION AND CONNECTIVITY We have real connectivity, which is on the rise in multiple areas, including rail links between different areas.

Waterways are open from West Bengal and also the Seven Sisters. Road links have increased with multiple

CHALLENGES IN BILATERAL COOPERATION

border points for transporting cargo and goods. Air is also connected. More than 100 flights are going in a week between India and Bangladesh.

Port facilities are also available for connectivity, and we aspire to take it to the regional level, including Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar, for the mutual benefit of these countries.

TRADE AND ECONOMIC COOPERATION Bangladesh is India’s biggest trade partner in South Asia, and India is the second biggest trade partner of Bangladesh in Asia. Informal trade that takes place along the border is almost double that of the formal trade that takes place.

This is a significant improvement that has occurred recently, and we encourage that. Though we import more things from India, I think our export is also on the rise.

We have to diversify and look for other means to increase it.

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ENERGY AND POWER COOPERATION Bangladesh imports about 1160 megawatts of power from India. Indian companies are working to produce 3600 megawatts in Bangladesh.

India is also providing technical assistance and training for a nuclear power plant, which has been commissioned recently.

COOPERATION DURING COVID 19 We received the first batches of COVID-19 vaccines from India, a wonderful manifestation of India’s Look East Policy.

MAJOR CHALLENGE Bangladesh and India share about 54 common rivers. We had an agreement in 2011 about water sharing, but it did not occur due to political differences between the West Bengal and Central governments.

This is affecting the livelihood of the northern region of Bangladesh, which is drying up.

LT GENERAL M A HOSSAIN,

SBP, BSP, SUP (BAR), afwc, psc, G+, PhD (Retd) Former Commandant, National Defence College, Bangladesh

EXPERT COMMENTS The security issue was a major issue, and once it was resolved, the relationship between India and Bangladesh immediately flourished.

The government of Sheikh Hasina took firm steps against them. Almost all of them were sent back to India to face due process of law.

Immediately after independence, certain dissatisfied groups of Northeast India revolted and were given shelter and support in what was then East Pakistan.

The action taken by the Bangladesh government in controlling terrorism also deserves compliments.

There is tremendous security cooperation between the two countries. The resolution of security concerns has resulted in goodwill between the two nations that is unprecedented and growing by the day.

However, even after liberation, between 1976-96 and 2001-2008, these elements continued their activities in Bangladesh. But after 2009, the scenario changed.

A B MATHUR Member, National Security Advisory Board & Former Special Secretary- R&AW, India

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

RIDING THE WAVE OF INDIA’S GROWTH

Nepal and India’s past, present and future are connected!

This article is based on the views expressed

by Minendra Rijal during the 9th Synergia Conclave.

H

ow can Nepal ride the wave of India’s growth and impress India to partner with it in helping it realise its potential in many areas – especially hydropower and tourism?

Nepal appreciates India’s Neighbourhood First policy. As its next-door neighbour, Nepal is happy to work closely with India. They share centuries-old traditions of social, cultural, religious, spiritual, and economic linkages and close people-to-people contacts.

In the sum, no other country can replace India as far as Nepal is concerned.

But at the same time, India also has to understand Nepal’s aspiration as a sovereign nation. collaboration should be further strengthened for shared progress and prosperity.

OTHER INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS

The Nepal-India Economic Cooperation Development Partnership has gained momentum in recent years, particularly in infrastructure development, cross-border connectivity, power generation and trade.

To the north of Nepal is China. Nepal has enjoyed a close and good, friendly relationship with China. It has been receiving bilateral foreign aid in various areas since 1953 from China. Nepal has identified nine projects in BRI, but only on a grant basis. The reason is that Kathmandu still has a potentially unused concessional loan window with the ADB and the World Bank, which would be cheaper than the BRI alone. Recently, China has also started providing direct assistance to non-government actors in Nepal, just like India, which has been practising this for about two decades. The practice of providing bilateral assistance to non-government actors is useful to an extent, but if a political angle starts evolving in it, then it might defeat the basic purpose of development assistance itself.

Nepal- India cooperation in air, road and railways connectivity, cross-border petroleum products pipeline, hydropower and transmission lines development, integrated check posts and human resource development help remain significant. Nepal and India’s past, present and future are connected. The friendship and

With the U.S., Nepal has enjoyed a long and friendly relationship. They have been a very important development partner in Nepal’s endeavours. The support has gained some momentum in the recent past. The Millennium Challenge Corporation Nepal Compact, a $500-million grant from the United States for electric-

A RICH HISTORY OF COLLABORATION India has also been the largest foreign aid provider for Nepal and an important development partner of Nepal. India’s assistance in the aftermath of the 2015 earthquake and the COVID-19 pandemic remains crucial for Nepal to navigate difficult times.

RIDING THE WAVE OF INDIA’S GROWTH

ity transmission and road development projects, after five years of keeping it on hold, is a substantial one to be spent on transmission line and road projects that Nepal had carefully selected.

Besides, Nepal receives foreign aid from other bilateral donors and international development partners.

This international attention is useful for Nepal to get out of the rise of India and China in global politics.

Nepal is mindful of making the right calls to benefit from both China and India. Of course, there is immense potential benefit from being neighbours to two giant nations growing as economic powers at an impressive pace.

We also need to learn lessons from them in what they have done right in making steady progress in socio-economic development. India deserves to be congratulated on its successful G20 presidency, under which the group made substantial achievements. We also appreciate the leadership role taken by the Government of India in forming the International Solar Alliance, W.H.O., Global Centre for Traditional Medicine, and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure.

VAST SCOPE WITH INDIA

FOR

COLLABORATION

Nepal can find many useful best practices from developing hydropower in Bhutan. In October, it could not sell nearly 500 megawatts of surplus electricity that went unused despite there being a demand in India and Bangladesh.

Some progress is being made on this account based on a trilateral understanding between Nepal, India and Bangladesh on the export of electricity from Nepal to Bangladesh. Nepal needs to do more on this as its power surplus will increase with an additional 2000 megawatts of electricity produced next year. There are opportunities in Indian states bordering Nepal- Uttarakhand, Bihar, UP and West Bengal- on this front.

Nepal is an attractive tourist destination that can make significant strides in fully realising its tourist potential by attracting hordes of tourists from its giant neighbours.

Buddhism is a common link connecting Nepal to many Asian countries. A new airport has come up close to the birthplace of Buddha, and it is hoped that it will at-

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tract a greater tourist rush. However, there are issues with India on landing rights, etc. There is a concern that the airport, close to the Indian border, was built with Chinese assistance. This is incorrect; it was built with the ADB’s support based on the SASEC project. And India also is a partner in this SASEC project with the ADB. But we cannot lose sight of the fact that without help from our neighbourhood, our new two international airports cannot be properly utilised.

It goes without saying that the Nepal-India relationship is unique. It goes back to the beginning of human civilisation in the region; it is extensive and deep-rooted.

There always are issues that need to be addressed and resolved. One would be the Agneepath scheme.

One of Nepal’s concerns is how these youths can be productively employed or absorbed in Nepali society after their premature retirement in just four years. Second, we are mindful that Gurkha recruitment is based on the tripartite agreement of 1947.

The other concern would be that Nepal and India have disputed areas in 71 different places in 23 districts, totalling 606 square kilometres. The main issue is over the source of Kali River and the claims over 335 square kilometres in that region.

The idea of a common border was tossed around earlier. It is possible that something that could be put to use so that nobody loses but at the same time, India’s strategic interests are not compromised. Nepal should also be able to say to the world that despite having a large and powerful neighbour, Nepal, too, got a deal to its satisfaction.

Seeking solutions through open talk, addressing each other’s concerns, and diplomatic assistance to guarantee peace, security and development in the region as a whole should be the key to resolving any outstanding issue.

Another outstanding issue is how to best use the joint EPG report (Eminent Persons Group on Nepal-India Relations). Nepal and India formed an eight-member panel of eminent persons in 2016 to review bilateral relations in their entirety and suggest the way forward.

Both countries should be flexible enough to understand each other’s genuine interests and work together towards a sustainable peace.

In the sum, no other country can replace India as far as Nepal is concerned. But at the same time, India also has to understand Nepal’s aspiration as a sovereign nation.

MINENDRA RIJAL

Former Defence Minister, Nepal

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

INDIA-LANKA:

A CATALYST FOR SOUTH ASIA

Economic integration between India and Sri Lanka is the key.

This article is based on the views expressed

by Milinda Moragoda during the 9th Synergia Conclave.

A

s Ambassador Shankar Menon put it some years ago, the best way to define Sri Lanka is as an unsinkable aircraft carrier positioned 14 miles south of India.

However, it would be better for the region to convert it from an ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier’ to a cruise ship, cargo carrier, or something like that vis a vis India.

If we can achieve that, many other strategic considerations will be over.

There are bigger geopolitical concerns in India, but it would be better to look forward rather than backward.

Firstly, India intervened in Sri Lanka with $4 billion last year and helped to stabilise the economy at a point of crisis. It was an intervention that all Sri Lankans appreciate. India also took the lead in speaking with the IMF on the debt restructuring side. India has performed a critical function to bring this current stabilisation package together.

A SHRINKING ECONOMY Sri Lanka’s economy shrank eight and a half per cent last year; it is expected to shrink around three and a half per cent this year. And if you look at the most optimistic forecast for the next ten years, it will only grow at about 3 per cent.

Sri Lanka’s economy is a very narrow one; its main source of income is remittances, which this year will be

One challenge is political stability, which is affected by economic pressure. The biggest challenge is implementation, which does not match dialogue, vision, and goodwill. Building trust is also a big challenge. Maintaining dialogue at the highest levels is the only way to resolve it. about $6 billion, from Sri Lankans working in the Middle East and elsewhere.

The second source of income is parallel exports about $5 billion this year, of which about 30 per cent of value is added domestically and about 70 per cent is imported.

Tourism would be around two and a half billion.

And that is our great hope. And interestingly, the tourism that comes in, about 25 per cent, will be from India.

That is the biggest chunk.

Tea is about one and a half to $2 billion and IT Services around $1 billion. This is the length and breadth of our economy. Unless we broaden this and push harder, we cannot go over the 3 per cent mark.

A CASE OF ECONOMIC INTEGRATION If you look at Sri Lanka’s economic size, we are an $80 billion economy. You take a parallel; for example, Kerala is a $140 billion economy. If you look at our population, it is 22 million. Kerala is around 33 million.

INDIA-LANKA: A CATALYST FOR SOUTH ASIA

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We need the Indian state to understand our scale, and we need to understand your scale. For example, if you look at our installed capacity for power in the country, it is about 4300 megawatts. If you look at NTPC, one of your larger power producers, it has an installed capacity of around 75,000 megawatts.

We are told that we have wind energy capability off the northwestern coast of Sri Lanka of nearly 30,000 megawatts. We can invest in that together or bilaterally, as we have seen with the US-India cooperation here. In that case, we can also see the surplus power being exported to India.

So, when you look at it in context, Sri Lanka is relatively small. Therefore, economic integration between India and Sri Lanka is the key for us to move forward.

Now, if you look at our exports to India, we are at around $900 million, and our imports from India are around four and a half billion dollars!

Then we have the oil pipeline idea because we have in Trincomalee port oil storage facilities. Trincomalee is a deep-water harbour also strategically important in this region. If you can develop that into an energy hub with access to India, part of it would be the oil pipeline idea mentioned in the joint statement between our president and Prime Minister Modi.

So clearly there is something to be done there. We need to look at economic integration to come out of this crisis. And there you look at different sectors. We can start with the port sector, for example. Colombo port is our largest port. Nearly 80 per cent of Colombo port business is trans-shipment business, of which around 75 per cent goes to India.

Interestingly, of the 75 per cent that goes to India, around 35 per cent goes to Adani ports. So, this integration between our ports and Indian ports will be one of the key areas where we can really move forward. And recently, for example, with the Adani investment in Colombo Port, the US Development Finance Corporation also came in with $500 million in that investment. We have a situation where India, Sri Lanka, and the U.S. cooperate to develop Colombo port. That is an interesting model.

Airports are the next. Sri Lanka potentially should become the Netherlands, if you will, of this region, in other words, a distribution centre where airports, ports, and, of course, road connections can make us the gateway into the subcontinent, into India especially.

Then comes the land connectivity between India and Sri Lanka. This is something that has been long spoken about. There has been much debate politically in Sri Lanka as well. If we can look at a highway and railway connecting the two, automatically, we take the first step because our port then can become much larger, can go faster because you will have land connectivity also and the people-to-people movement and in every facet, we would have connectivity.

Then comes the power grid. As I indicated, if you have a power grid connection between India and Sri Lanka, the installed capacity is 4300 megawatts in Sri Lanka.

Then, of course, we have mineral resources in Sri Lanka. We have phosphate, graphite/graphene, which is supposed to be of high quality, and limestone. But most of this still needs to be developed, and we need to start developing it in an environmentally friendly way. Many environmentalists have been concerned about this in the country, so there will be a debate, but our graphene quality is supposed to be of a very high standard. The phosphate is also of very high standard but needs to be exploited.

Then lastly, telecom also provides a great scope for integration. We could establish joint ventures between India and Sri Lanka if this connectivity occurs quickly.

The port model is the best model we have at the moment.

CHALLENGES Many in Sri Lanka fear that India will swallow us up. But equally, I think people realise now that the way forward for us is integration because we cannot get our economy out of the current situation without some way of catalysing growth and integrating with any other global economy will not work as fast as with India; it is a golden opportunity.

The other area we should focus on is the trilateral cooperation area between India-Sri Lanka-U.S., or India-Sri Lanka-Japan but also from the Middle East because we have the potential to become a better petroleum hub.

One challenge is political stability, which is affected by economic pressure. The biggest challenge is implementation, which does not match dialogue, vision, and goodwill. Building trust is also a big challenge. Maintaining dialogue at the highest levels is the only way to resolve it.

MILINDA MORAGODA

Former High Commissioner of Sri Lanka to India and Founder of the Pathfinder Foundation

INDIA-LANKA: A CATALYST FOR SOUTH ASIA

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EXPERT COMMENTS Like all other South Asian countries, Sri Lanka has a historic connection that goes back into the mists of time.

Like all other South Asian countries, we are conjoined at the hip, as it were, with very strong religious, cultural, and ethnic ties with Sri Lanka.

India’s current Neighbourhood First policy has laid a strong foundation for reaching out to neighbouring states, reflecting at a practical level in India-Sri Lanka relations.

The Indo-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement has resulted in an all-time high in trade volumes, amounting to 5.4 billion. India is Sri Lanka’s third largest export destination after the US and UK. Of course, Sri Lanka would like to see more of its exports reaching Indian shores, and I think there is a lot of work to be done at the state-to-state level where the entry of its goods is concerned.

FDI (foreign direct investment) is another significant area where large-scale Indian investment has been evident. Some of the key investments are the Colombo West container terminal and the wind power projects by the Adani Group. Tourism and connectivity are important areas Sri Lanka considers a must for devel-

opment. Development assistance from India has been readily forthcoming in education, health, housing, and transport, among others. We have an ongoing maritime security cooperation and defence cooperation between the two countries, and this, in the context of what’s happening in the Indian Ocean, has been most useful in our bilateral ties.

The icing on the cake of Indo-Lanka relations has been the magnanimous gesture following Sri Lanka’s economic crisis to come up with a mixed bag of assistance, with no questions being asked, to the tune of US dollars 4 billion. It was a lifeline in helping Sri Lanka cope with the tremendous strains of the crisis on its economy.

Bilateral relations obviously have to be nurtured. It cannot be left without being tended. And this is especially so in the context of the presence of extra-regional powers in the Indian Ocean.

In this area, there has been a bit of strain regarding Indo-Lanka relations. There have been Indian concerns expressed over the visit of Chinese submarines and research vessels.

AHMED A JAWAD

Director, Pathfinder, Sri Lanka

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

THE EXTENDED NEIGHBOURHOOD

Thailand - India Defence Cooperation

This article is based on the views expressed

by Air Chief Marshal Saisak K during the 9th Synergia Conclave.

T

hailand published its 20-year national strategy in 2017, which gives a comprehensive way forward for the future of Thailand. The highlight of defence cooperation is integrating security cooperation within the ASEAN region and among foreign countries, including related governments and non-government organizations.

WIDENING SPHERE OF DEFENCE COOPERATION The MOU on defence cooperation between Thailand and India was signed by the ministers of defence of both countries on 25th July 2012. According to the MOU, both armed forces have been conducting defence cooperation in some major areas.

Thailand and India have been exchanging military attaches for a long time. These attaches are points of contact. Both armed forces have been exchanging students at military academies and military institutes.

Both armed forces have had several bilateral and multilateral exercises.

Both armed forces are conducting joint and combined exercises among all services. The ‘Cobra Gold’ exercise is the largest multilateral exercise in the Asia Pacific region, co-hosted by Thailand and the U.S. and conducted in Thailand annually. More than 20 countries are participating in all parts of the exercise. Indi-

Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries tend to focus more on the problems in the region, such as land border conflict and maritime conflict in the South China Sea. Global superpowers, i.e., the U.S. and China, have been directly or indirectly involved in these conflicts. These factors have affected the development of defence cooperation between the two countries. an Armed Forces are participating in the exercise as a HADR participant.

One of the key areas of defence cooperation is in the field of maritime security. The two countries have been conducting joint naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea to enhance their capabilities to deal with piracy and other maritime threats. Thailand and India have actively participated in UN peacekeeping missions. India is one of the largest troop-contributing nations and has an international-level UN peacekeeping pre-deployment training centre.

CHALLENGES FOR DEFENCE COOPERATION The MOU on defence cooperation provides a broad range of defence cooperation. However, defence cooperation has yet to be developed at the pace it is sup-

THE EXTENDED NEIGHBOURHOOD

posed to be. The possible causes of limited cooperation are given in succeeding paras.

First, the two countries are located in different geographical locations. There is no concrete common interest for each country in surrounding areas of the other country. Each country tends to pay more attention to its neighbouring countries.

Second, even though Thailand acts as a gateway for India to ASEAN, the world superpowers have conflicts and influence in the region.

Therefore, Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries tend to focus more on the problems in the region, such as land border conflict and maritime conflict in the South China Sea. Global superpowers, i.e., the U.S. and China, have been directly or indirectly involved in these conflicts.

These factors have affected the development of defence cooperation between the two countries.

Third, frequent changes in the country’s leadership, especially in Thailand, can cause inconsistency of policy in international relations. This affects the progress of defence cooperation.

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Major areas that need to be enhanced include joint maritime patrols, maritime cooperation, regular joint exercises, counter-terrorism, peacekeeping operations, and regional cooperation.

THE WAY AHEAD First, there should be more cooperation on maritime security in the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea to counter piracy and other maritime threats.

Second, there should be an initiative of counter-insurgency cooperation. India can share experiences with Thailand to counter insurgency in southern Thailand.

Third, as a co-host of the exercise, Thailand should support India to participate more in the COBRA GOLD exercise. Fourth, cooperation on intelligence sharing between the two countries should be enhanced.

Finally, there should be more cooperation on military medical collaboration, which both countries already have capability.

AIR CHIEF MARSHAL SAISAK KANPACHAI (RETD) Royal Thai Armed Forces, Thailand

THE EXTENDED NEIGHBOURHOOD

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EXPERT COMMENTS First of all, Maldives and India have, for many decades, shared a good relationship.

going to have an impact and will have bad implications for our area.

A lot of help in military and economic development, especially in finance and others has come from India.

Indians are one of the best in the region for technology.

Smaller states like the Maldives would like to benefit from India’s products, especially from its technology.

India has responded very well and timely as a first responder. The trijunction maritime border established was an achievement.

Decolonisation is taking place though it is a slow process and I would say we are badly affected by post-colonial policies, which have been implemented during these years.

Rising powers like China or recent incidents like what is happening in Ukraine and Russia is

A major shipping highway passes through common areas – especially Sri Lanka, Maldives and India. It must be made safer for people to travel and transport goods.

I hope we can bring out something new with the new leadership in the Maldives. Regarding technological diplomacy, we started it in 2005, but it could have worked better.

So we need to understand a few things and have a common language.

BRIGADIER GENERAL AHMED NILAM (RETD) Former Head of Military Int, MDF, Maldives

EXPERT COMMENTS Security is the feeling of being physically and mentally safe and secure.

in the region to tackle information technology challenges alone – mostly being developing countries.

The growing global situation and developments have led to more complexity in traditional and non-traditional security fields - the line of distinction between them is no longer clear and differentiated.

Therefore, we need constructive cooperation for our regional countries to face the cross-border nature of information technology challenges, organized crime, and fake news.

The definition of international law of war and warfare is becoming more complex. The scope of impact of modern warfare is expanding to non-military affairs. Security challenges have an impact on economic and food security. The definition of national security has been revised and changed a lot.

We look forward to further development of security and defence cooperation between India and Myanmar.

It is necessary to maintain our tradition of cooperation and peaceful co-existence.

The development of information technology has an impact on national security. It is difficult for countries

The two countries are trading partners with a good history of economic cooperation.

MAJOR GENERAL NGWE THEIN (RETD) Vice President, Central Executive Committee, Myanmar War Veterans Organisation

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

AEROSPACE AND DEFENCE

Technology’s influence on the Next Generation of Warfare This article is based on the address of Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhary, PVSM, AVSM, VM, ADC, Chief of Air Staff, India at the 9th Synergia Conclave.

S

urvival and evolution of the human race are intrinsically related to the specie’s capability to fight. The evolution of warfare has witnessed progression through bows and arrows, spears, shields, gunpowder, artillery, guns, tanks, and so on. Now even space has not been left untouched from this progression. The most important influencer in the evolution of the character of warfare has been technology. Technology will have a major impact on how conflicts are fought and will decide the future contours of air power and aerospace power.

EVERY DAY IS A NEW DAY No segment of our daily lives today can escape the overwhelming influence of technology. The generation has seen the network transition from 1G to 5G in the last three to four decades. To highlight the progress, it took almost 45 minutes to download a normal HD movie in 3G about a decade ago; in 4G, this could be done in a minute or so and with 5G, it takes less than 7 seconds! It is not too difficult to fathom the impact of a technology that will reduce the time for activity from 45 minutes to just seven seconds and counting! The impact of such technological advancement is visible in the modern battlefield, especially when the conflict is an uneven one with one side possessing all the technological advancements. What is the kind of asymmetry it will create?

The impact of rapid technological advancement is visible in the modern battlefield, especially when the conflict is an uneven one with one side possessing all the technological advancements. What is the kind of asymmetry it will create?

The most expensive supply chain in the universe extends only 241 miles. It is a resupply network from the mission control on Earth to the International Space Station. It costs $10,000 per pound to get an object out of Earth’s gravity. A company by the name Made in Space made a 3D printer that works in space. So in 2018, when an astronaut aboard the ISS broke his finger due to some mishap there, they did not have to send a splint up through another mission into space, for which they probably would have to wait for months before the launch could take place. What they did was they flipped on the 3D printer onboard the ISS, loaded some plastic feedstock, and created a splint there in space.

Technologies like quantum computing, robotics, nanotechnology, biotechnology, material science, 3D printing, etc., will find their application in every aspect of our lives. More than individual technology, it is the convergence of these technologies that will be a game changer. We are increasingly seeing the disruptive potential of technology in general, but especially in the aerospace domain, for fighting and winning future conflicts. Conventional application of knowledge and technology will produce an incremental change, whereas innovative use of converging technology can bring about

AEROSPACE AND DEFENCE

exponential changes. The outcome of any battle would be decided by the ability of the enemy to decipher your moves.

Some years back, an aviator was more interested in how technology could make his aircraft go faster than 1.5 Mach to maybe reach a speed of 2 Mach. This incremental technology meant a lot because it increased the ability of the weapon systems on board to strike further.

Today, this ability to speed up the aircraft from 1.5 Mach to 2 Mach may yield limited benefits. What is more important today would be to use technology to make the aircraft less visible to enemy radars.

MANNED VERSUS UNMANNED PLATFORMS A manned fighter will remain the fulcrum of aerospace power around which other systems will operate, at least for the next decade. There is a school of thought that feels that AI may replace human intelligence, at least in such systems but the debate around this continues to rage.

Undoubtedly, the aircraft of tomorrow need to have enhanced survivability in a contested and well-defended environment, the capability to deliver precision munitions, flexibility to undertake mixed manned and unmanned missions, and simultaneously integrate with a host of sensors. An extremely high levek of situational awareness will be the key to winning any future conflict. The technology and applications needed to provide these capabilities would not only include stealth, self-healing structures, powerful health monitoring and diagnostic suites along with more efficient engines in the basic aircraft structure. Other requirements would include sensors with long-range detection capability.

More power generation for futuristic laser and directed energy weapons, enhanced human-system integration by use of AI and data to decision capability. Features like next-generation avionics, helmet-mounted and eye retina displays, advanced ASA radars, and advanced infrared search and track systems would be required to ensure extremely high levels of situational awareness.

Unmanned systems still have to overcome certain limitations before they can be effective in a modern, heavily defended battle space. This includes the capability to operate in contested airspace for which they will require enhanced speed, manoeuvrability and self-defence capability. Seamless connectivity through secure SATCOM is another important require-

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ment for drones to be effective in future conflicts. If you are looking at unmanned platforms, replacing additional roles that they are currently purely in the domain of manned aircraft, their flexibility and versatility as compared to manned platforms need to be improved.

AI would possibly facilitate this improvement.

In future, drones will operate in swarms. This will be an absolute must and would require AI and machine learning-infused technology. This could be coupled with a higher level of miniaturisation and automation to reduce susceptibility to counter-drone systems.

NEW AGE WEAPONS Weapons are the cutting edge of the military arsenal. Weapons that are likely to find more and more traction and utility in future conflicts would primarily be the hypersonic weapons with the capability to evade ballistic missile defences and directed energy weapons with potential applications like airborne laser, anti-personnel weapon systems and anti-satellite weapons.

The primary arsenal today of most air forces is conventional as well as precision munitions. Glide bombs with higher accuracies and higher payloads are the need of the day. The future generation glide bombs should be able to deliver over 1000 kg of explosives with an accuracy of less than 5 meters. As the war in Ukraine has shown in graphic details, loitering low-cost ammunition that can maintain station over the tactical battle area (loiter), identify the target, and control the direction of impact on the target is changing the face of modern warfare. All these will have a significant impact, particularly in well-defended air spaces and are easily available across the globe today, at affordable prices.

Imagine loitering ammunition costing a few thousand dollars and destroying a tank costing millions with pinpoint accuracy!

Air-to-ground missiles are considered an expensive proposition as they hinge on good seekers, complicated onboard navigation systems, and many other components that go on to increase their accuracy. This is an area that needs to be focussed upon to be able to develop low-cost inertial measurement units and immune GPS systems that will provide low-cost options for high-precision, long-range weapons.

The ongoing conflicts, both in Europe and the Middle East, have demonstrated the significant value addition that precision-guided munitions have provided to the air forces. Then is the cost factor. Can we really afford missiles that cost upwards of 10 to 15 crores each?

The cost needs to be reduced by focusing on technologies that can bring the overall cost down to something more affordable.

AIR CHIEF MARSHAL VR CHAUDHARY, PVSM, AVSM, VM, ADC Chief of Air Staff, India

AEROSPACE AND DEFENCE

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NETWORKED BATTLESPACE Success in contemporary and future operations will depend less on highly advanced individual platforms and more on the strengths of an integrated network of sensors, weapons, analytical tools, optimised processes and people. Fusing the information from multiple disparate sensors to create a single integrated air picture, whether using the data from an airborne fighter or space-based ISR and employing the best available effectors to defeat the threats efficiently, will be of paramount importance. A network of systems will be capable of updating the fighter’s database in flight on a microsecond basis.

Basically, the latency of information that is available to the warfighter must be reduced, in particular, to a pilot who is sitting in a single-manned fighter aircraft.

The latency of information has to be down to milliseconds to keep the decision cycle from the sensor to the shooter as low as it can be made. The network of systems will be capable of updating the fighter’s database in flight without the pilot having to worry about where this information is coming from and whether this information is filtered or not. All this has to take place through onboard systems with the copious use of AI. A word of caution, however, as we become increasingly networked, reliance on a seamless flow of information has created a false sense of security. There is a need for us to learn to operate in an environment of denial by creating flexible and adaptive structures. This translates into ‘training for operating in a network environment, but educating ourselves for operating in an era of denial.’

SPACE CONTROL Space control, that is, uninterrupted use of space for one’s own requirements, would become an important factor for the conduct of military operations in future conflicts. Some technologies required to enhance own space capabilities would include reusability and response launch options. This is the capability to launch on-demand, along with quantum communications.

Quantum communication techniques can provide secure encryption and mitigate existing vulnerabilities. AI will also find a host of applications in developing our space-based capabilities.

for use in space and aerial reconnaissance segments, and providing seamless data flow to create and maintain decision superiority will be a decisive factor in any future conflict. Information superiority and decision superiority are two key factors that will decide the superiority of any force over the other.

Some niche technologies that will find applications in future Indian Air Force systems would include nanotechnology-based sensors and displays with hyperspectral imaging. In addition to this, augmented reality and virtual reality-based training simulators, along with solutions for war gaming to facilitate realistic training, are being explored.

While India gained expertise through the development of the Tejas and the Light Combat Helicopter Prachand, our future platforms like the LCA Mark II, the AMCA, and the Light Utility Helicopter should exploit all emerging technologies to produce a best-in-class product.

We are working closely with defence PSUs and development agencies to ensure this. Similarly, the development of hypersonic weapons and directed energy weapons needs to be expedited to provide a significant boost to our capability. In the space domain, the Indian Air Force is deeply involved in projects like the Gaganyaan and real-time aircraft tracking system. The IAF is also the lead in 29 of the 75 defence space challenges and is working towards enhancing our space capabilities. It is imperative that we invest in new and disruptive technologies and identify innovative solutions for their applications in the aerospace domain.

Firstly, we understand the importance of electronic warfare systems in future conflicts. What we are looking at is our mobile and agile systems, which have a reduced form factor, basically reducing the size of the EW systems, all of them supported by AI backbone for decision support. These systems would also have the capability to plug and play with our existing inventory.

It will require a joint and consolidated effort on the part of all stakeholders, including the defence PSUs, the private industry, the MSMEs, the academia, and all others, to facilitate the process of aligning technologies that will enable our armed forces to emerge victorious in any future conflict. Almost 100 years ago, the famous air power theorist General Giulio Douhet brought out the importance of anticipating and adapting to changes.

To quote him, “Victory smiles upon those who anticipate the changes in the character of war, not upon those who wait to adapt themselves after the changes occur.”

We are also working towards exploiting 5G technology in both our service-specific cellular network, as well as the terrestrial network. Exploiting 5G technologies

Think tanks can play a vital role in charting a path for the employment of niche technologies to ensure victory.

KEY TECHNOLOGY IMPERATIVES FOR THE FUTURE

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

ASEAN: SETTING AN EXAMPLE

“Wars reflect geopolitical incompetence; Peace reflects geopolitical competence.”

This article is based on the views expressed

by Prof Kishore Mahbubani during the 9th Synergia Conclave.

I

f you focus on what the Western pandits say, they will assume that Asia will be a cauldron of war, conflicts and tensions. And yet, despite that, the century will be peaceful in Asia.

This confidence arises from the 44 years of peace that Asia has enjoyed, with no major war being fought on the continent.

GEOPOLITICAL INCOMPETENCE There are many underlying reasons, and a beginning can be made with what should become over time: a truism in geopolitics- Wars reflect geopolitical incompetence; Peace reflects geopolitical competence.

Take, for example, the war in Ukraine, which reflects many things, but it also reflects European geopolitical incompetence. Similarly, the war in the Middle East also reflects the geopolitical incompetence of the region and of the great powers involved. The long peace that Asia has enjoyed, primarily in East Asia, Southeast Asia, and, to some extent, South Asia, is a result of a very high degree of geopolitical competence.

However, this does not explain the complete story, which is complex, with many factors at play. For example, the strong United States presence in East Asia has been a stabilizing factor. During the Cold War, the very close alliance and partnership between the United States and China also helped to create bridges of understanding in this region.

Many people unfortunately ignore the most important factor: the role of ASEAN and what it has done to bring about peace in Asia. Few people know Southeast Asia is the most diverse region on Earth. Among its over 640 to 660 million people, 250 million are Muslims, 150 million Christians and 150 million Buddhists- Mahayana Buddhists, Hinayana Buddhists; there are also Taoists, Confucianists, and Hindus. Yet, ASEAN has emerged as one of the most peaceful regions in the world. Equally importantly, it has also shared its culture of peace with the rest of East Asia. So, how did ASEAN do it?

THE STABILISING ROLE OF ASEAN Many people unfortunately ignore the most important factor: the role of ASEAN and what it has done to bring about peace in Asia. Few people know Southeast Asia is the most diverse region on Earth.

Among its over 640 to 660 million people, 250 million are Muslims, 150 million Christians and 150 million Buddhists- Mahayana Buddhists, Hinayana Buddhists; there are also Taoists, Confucianists, and Hindus.

Yet, ASEAN has emerged as one of the most peaceful

ASEAN: SETTING AN EXAMPLE

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regions in the world. Equally importantly, it has also shared its culture of peace with the rest of East Asia. So, how did ASEAN do it?

ASEAN did not begin with this great reservoir of trust or goodwill. In fact, in the 1970s, there was much tension and distrust within the Bloc between countries like Malaysia and Singapore, which had just separated.

Indonesia and Malaysia were equally confrontationist.

The Philippines claimed a state in Malaysia and Sabah, which brought it face-to-face with Malaysia. Fortunately, over the last few decades, this has all changed for the better. There are three major three lessons from the ASEAN experience.

KEYS TO SUCCESS The first is inclusivity; include everybody in your neighbourhood and make them part of your destiny.

This inclusiveness has not been confined to Southeast Asia but has been extended to the neighbours of Southeast Asia. When the ASEAN Regional Forum was established, it included the U.S. and Russia, Pakistan and India, and South and North Korea, all on the assumption that all these countries, though not located in the region, would be part of the geography of the Bloc with whom ASEAN would have to work with, one way or another.

By contrast, the European Union remains a ‘Christian Club.’ And even though one Muslim country, Turkey, has been knocking on its doors for decades, it has no prospect of coming in because the EU works on the principle that to join our club, you must be like us.

ASEAN has adopted the opposite principle- because we are different, we have to come together.

Therefore, the rule of being inclusive in our world, which is becoming far more diverse, is a very critical one.

The second rule is to be open to trade. Traditional geopolitical strategies scoff at trade; they think it’s all about money. No, it is not, as trade engenders peace in the long run. The ASEAN region is so peaceful because, against all earlier protectionist instincts, it opened itself up to trade with some spectacular results.

Take, for example, the relationship between ASEAN and its two greatest great power partners, the U.S. and China. In the year 2000, U.S. trade with ASEAN was $135 billion. China’s trade with ASEAN was $40 billion, about 1/3 of of $135 billion of U.S. trade. But by 2022, while U.S. trade with ASEAN had gone up from 135 to 440 billion, an increase of three and a half times, China’s trade with ASEAN had grown from 40 billion to an

PROF KISHORE MAHBUBANI

Former Singapore Permanent rep to UN

astounding $975 billion! It’s the world’s largest trading relationship. And guess what this trade does? It creates a whole environment of trust and coming together. And even two neighbours, China and Vietnam, which have had tensions for 2,000 years, are now engaged in trade.

The third rule is that the countries continuously engage with each other in ASEAN. Yes, there are differences, and from time to time, neighbours in ASEAN have had skirmishes, misunderstandings, and disagreements, but the Bloc carries on; its meetings never stop.

When neighbours have a breakdown in their relationship, for example, when China and Japan could not meet because of a bilateral squabble, as the leaders could not find a face-saving way of meeting, guess what they do?

They come to an ASEAN plus three meeting, and then they engineer a bilateral meeting. There are 1000 meetings among the ASEAN countries annually in all areas: economics, politics, culture, health, sports, etc. The net result of all these continuous meetings is that a reservoir of mutual trust is built up.

On the face of it, these three rules appear very simple and not difficult to replicate. Yet surprisingly, in many other regions around the globe, it is almost inconceivable for countries to sit together and talk to each other. But that’s one of the oldest lessons of diplomacy.

TECHNOLOGY

TECH DIPLOMACY: THE VIEW FROM BERLIN

There is a growing concern in Germany about what technology, especially AI-driven Information Technology, will mean in the future.

This article is based on an interaction with the Germany Ambassador Dr Philipp Ackermann at the Synergia Foundation.

B

angalore has established itself as one of the top IT hubs of the world, ranging from small to big enterprises. People come to it for new solutions for problems with technology, the latest being how to manage AI so it is useful but does not go out of hand. The Science Centre in Bangalore, partly financed by Biocon, is the perfect example where science and academia come together to find solutions, and engineering comes together with humanities and other academic disciplines to seek solutions for important problems.

AN UNSTABLE GLOBE Internationally, the world is in a difficult spot– political chaos, the growing role of China, the role of Russia in Europe, etc. The war in Ukraine will have a huge effect on Europe and is unlikely to end any time soon. Few had expected to see a conventional war being waged in Europe for ‘land grab’ the old style; everyone thought that the time of imperial war was over, at least in Europe. Germany was not prepared for it, especially its defences.

One of the biggest challenges of our times is how to deal with climate change – how to adapt and find solutions. Germany does not need more energy- just different energy, which has fewer fossil fuels in it and more renewable. But India needs both- more energy

Germany- India relations are like a fat man with a small head – a lot of economic relations but not so much defence and strategic cooperation. However, changes are taking place in Germany, and the accelerated approval system in Germany for military goods expresses Germany’s determination to cooperate with India strategically; Germany is keen to push India out of Russia’s embrace. It is an acknowledgement of the Indian military as a strong player in Indo-Pacific security.

The Centre Left government in Germany is increasingly open to it. and of all types. As the most populous rising nation in the world, its hunger for energy is vast. But, with India and China not being part of the solution, attempts to mitigate climate change are useless. Germany is looking for a solution for global green energy, and one of them is in Bangalore in its partnership with the fast-expanding Bangalore’s Namma Metro. However, there are many contrasting views globally on energy, especially on fossil fuels.

Another issue that is of concern to Germany is what technology, especially AI-driven Information Technology, will mean in the future. Here in India, I find greater confidence and hope in digitisation as compared to

TECH DIPLOMACY: THE VIEW FROM BERLIN

Germany and even Europe. While the Global South may be an illusion, there is a group of emerging markets that includes China and India that can play a leading role.

Germany and India have been extensively cooperation on science and academia. The new Government in Berlin has shifted its earlier China-centric approach, giving more space to India.

The Westphalian model of sovereignty has not proved very successful in meeting the challenges of this technological age. Also, since WW II times, there has not been much fruitful role played by the UNSC; only alliances like the EU, NATO, etc, have survived. However, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has contributed to deliberating on global issues. Only alliances have saved smaller European nations from being subsumed, and this has spurred even nations like Sweden and Finland to join NATO despite their history of neutrality.

THE WORLD IN 2023 From the ongoing war in Ukraine, the one lesson for Germany that dominates all others is not to put all your eggs in one basket! Germany, with a highly globalised economy, was comprehensively dependent upon Russia for its energy. Now, with considerable difficulty, this course correction is being implemented, which has resulted in increased German interest in India. More and more crucial industries investing in India have the support of the German government, like semiconductors and microchips, receiving huge subsidies from the German government.

There is a realisation that these are too crucial an industry to rely on only one supplier-China; strategic choices in the global economy have ushered in greater caution. European countries have to be more like Canada and the U.S. and encourage greater international migration to European countries to attract skilled labour for their continued prosperity. In Germany,

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the new immigration policy is completely liberalised with a large number of Indian students in Germany.

Overcoming the energy crisis caused by the Ukraine war, Germany has very quickly found new energy sources, including a growing proportion of renewables. As a global economy, Germany was always against protectionism, but it has changed this with the new protectionist measures to support renewable energy. However, nuclear-generated power will remain a taboo in Germany, although when needed, Germany will continue to buy energy from its neighbours like France, even if the power is generated in nuclear power stations.

Germany’s economy is shrinking, growth is taking a toll due to problems like supply chain and energy crisis.

However, it is a diverse economy with a strong backbone and will ultimately recover.

The political landscape in Europe is like a pendulum that is always shifting. It is visible in Poland, where a populist government failed to win a second consecutive term, and in Hungary, a populist system so entrenched that it is difficult to change. Though not a big country, it can block things. However, compared to Europe, nationalism in India seems to be on a high-look at the dispute with Canada! India is obviously a country that does not compromise easily; the Indian foreign policy is constantly asking, what’s in it for me?

With cyber threats growing worldwide, Germany’s strategy to deal with it is of interest. Germany has been hacked incessantly by the best hackers based in Ukraine, targeting everything from industry to the government. Of course, mostly, it was criminal intent to extort money, a large amount of it at times. Germany learnt its lessons in cybercrimes the hard way, as even the Americans hacked them!

Now, capabilities have been developed to ward off cyber-attacks, with much stronger firewalls and dedicated cybercrime units. However, Germany’s sensitivity to cyber crimes is still not as high as that of the U.S.

TECH DIPLOMACY: THE VIEW FROM BERLIN

While Germany has the German Aerospace Center or DLR, the national centre for aerospace, energy and transportation research, it lags behind France. Space is an area that Germany will have to pay more attention to.

GERMANY-INDIA RELATIONS Germany- India relations are like a fat man with a small head – a lot of economic relations but not so much defence and strategic cooperation. However, changes are taking place in Germany, and the accelerated approval system in Germany for military goods expresses Germany’s determination to cooperate with India strategically; Germany is keen to push India out of Russia’s embrace. It is an acknowledgement of the Indian military as a strong player in Indo-Pacific security. The Centre Left government in Germany is increasingly open to it.

Germany was the defender of Russia in the European context. But this premise was proven to be wrong. It now needs a stronger security system because of Russia; Russia is not the partner Germany thought it was.

Nobody in Germany thought the Russian attack was going to happen; we couldn’t imagine they would do something so deterrent to their own wellbeing.

The British and Americans knew better. Now, Germany is enhancing its defence budget to at least 2 per cent of the GDP, if not

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more. Why did it go so wrong with Russia? Perhaps it was the Anglo-Saxon way of looking at things-less emotional, more rational. After World War II, Germany was determined to get along with other nations and staunchly believed in multilateral organisations to find solutions – the UN and the OECD. This tainted view now seems like wishful thinking.

In retrospect, Germany should have been more objective. However, this is in no way the end of the road with Russia. It would like to re-engage with Moscow at some point in the future, although right now, the relations are at an all-time low.

Germany has made easy money in China because the business projects in China get implemented quickly, unlike in India. What the German industry realises (after Russia) is that although it is making good money with China, it cannot get too comfortable; it can make good money elsewhere too – Vietnam, Indonesia, etc.

India, too, faces many risks, primarily that of climate change– heatwaves and scattered monsoons will be a huge problem for the population. But one thing very striking is the difference between the North and the South. For example, Tamil Nadu has the same birth rate as Germany – 1.6.

But the North gets much more weightage, especially politically, which may be a problem in the South. Another issue of concern is the highly different levels of development in different parts, especially between the North and the South.

DR PHILIPP ACKERMANN

Ambassador of Germany to India

TECHNOLOGY

VIRTUAL HORIZONS

The role of the Metaverse in reshaping futures cannot be side-lined if the ethical use of this technology has to be ensured.

Ritika Simon Senior Research Associate in Synergia Foundation and has Post Graduate Degree in Economics, Risk and Society from the London School of Economics and Political Science.

W

e are witnessing an epochal shift in reality as we know it. We are on the cusp of a significant technological upheaval that promises to extend the boundaries of our ‘real world’ beyond the traditional constraints of space and time. But are we prepared to deal with the complexities bound to arise?

Metaverse has captured global attention as it grows into a reality. Who could have imagined that this sci-filike dream would be so speedily realised so soon after its introduction by Neal Stephenson in his 1992 sci-fi novel “Snow Crash.” Stephenson envisioned Metavision as a collective virtual space where individuals can instantaneously engage with one another and digital surroundings. Today, Metavision is poised to have profound consequences for sectors such as gaming, entertainment, education, and more. In fact, it is set to alter our daily existence fundamentally.

The full realisation of the Metaverse will undoubtedly create vast amounts of data, with each participant generating individual data files, demanding substantial processing power. But beyond the initial excitement and media buzz, the pertinent question arises: what transformative effects will the Metaverse have on our day-to-day lives?

MERGING TWO WORLDS Over two years ago, when Facebook rebranded itself as Meta, it was under fire for spreading misinformation

The full realisation of the Metaverse will undoubtedly create vast amounts of data, with each participant generating individual data files, demanding substantial processing power. But beyond the initial excitement and media buzz, the pertinent question arises: what transformative effects will the Metaverse have on our day-to-day lives? and carrying news items that were highly subjective and with a hidden purpose. Therefore, critics were quick to call the brand change a marketing gimmick to throw a curtain over its sullied reputation. Mr. Zuckerberg defended the move, calling a commitment of Facebook to build “a composite universe melding online, virtual and augmented worlds that people can seamlessly traverse.” He claimed that this concept, Metaverse, would be the next “major social platform” that Facebook and several tech companies would collaborate to build in the next decade. At the time of unveiling the Metaverse to the world, Mr Zuckerberg called it the successor to the mobile internet, emphasising that mobile devices would no longer be the focal points as the building blocks for the Metaverse were already available.

Not long after, Microsoft entered the scene with Mesh for Microsoft Teams, integrating features reminiscent of the Metaverse into its widely-used video collaboration platform.

The Metaverse is poised to transform virtually every facet of our personal and professional lives within the next ten years, facilitating cooperative interactions in

VIRTUAL HORIZONS

purely virtual environments, enriched real-world spaces, and hybrids of the two. It presents a comprehensive scope for analysis and unprecedented chances to boost business prospects, innovate new experiences, and improve quality of life.

The realisation of this potential will depend on technology – including the tangible aspects like headsets, wearable devices, and applications, as well as the foundational network infrastructure and programming.

However, it’s crucial to begin viewing the Metaverse through the lens of human potential and opportunity.

TELEMEDICINE OR META-MEDICINE The Metaverse holds tremendous promise for transforming healthcare. Accelerated by the recent pandemic, there has been a surge in the advancement and adoption of advanced ‘remote’ telemedicine technologies. While Telemedicine has been around since the 1990s, faster internet connections have made video consultations now a routine aspect of medical appointments.

So how can Metaverse reshape healthcare delivery to the patient sitting comfortably at home in every corner of the globe? First, it will establish virtual consultations as the standard practice, rendering in-person doctor visits a premium service that may incur additional fees. Second, it will enhance the calibre of these virtual interactions. The Metaverse will create an immersive experience where patients feel as though they are physically present with their healthcare provider. Coupled with advances in wearable technology, this will bring a new dimension of human interaction to virtual healthcare. Perhaps the physician would remotely feel the bumps and swellings of the patient’s vi-

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tal organs virtually, a diagnostic process that today can only be done by a physical touch.

Electromyography (EMG) presents a ground-breaking enhancement that could increase the sense of realism within the Metaverse. Traditionally employed by neurologists to study irregularities in human motion, EMG captures electrical signals from muscle activity and translates them into movements within a virtual setting.

This technology could enable individuals to manipulate their digital avatars through mere thought, greatly deepening the immersion of virtual reality experiences. Meta is creating a wristband that utilises EMG, which might soon allow users to explore this technology in the comfort of their homes.

NEW FRONTIERS IN E-EDUCATION The Metaverse offers an appealing solution for academic expansion by creating virtual classrooms and seminar spaces. This will shrink physical distances that separate various educational institutions, turning the world into a global classroom at a click, allowing access to high-quality educational classes in the remotest villages.

This has the dual benefit of potentially boosting the revenue for these institutions through increased enrolments and democratising access to prestigious universities that typically have very limited seating. This scaling up of education does not have to compromise the quality of learning either. Leveraging AI, virtual instructors can simultaneously conduct personalised tutorials with multiple students, utilising “intelligence systems” that adapt based on each student’s preferences, personality, background, and academic portfolio.

VIRTUAL HORIZONS

Innovations like ChatGPT could even challenge the traditional essay, raising fundamental questions about the essence and objectives of human-centric education.

Metaverse stands to revolutionise practical education. Students in fields such as medicine or engineering could practice on virtual subjects or machinery.

Simulated training for activities like flying or driving could achieve unprecedented levels of realism in the Metaverse, offering fully immersive experiences. Taking a cue from gaming, where unique scenarios are crafted from individual player data, similar techniques could be applied to training that sharpens reflexes and decision-making in dynamic and unforeseen circumstances.

A GREAT UNKNOWN? While its proponents advance Metaverse, yet another tool being placed in the service of mankind to improve all aspects of our lives, a word of caution is advisable. Like AI, it is an emerging technology whose impact can hardly be assessed at this early stage; its potential drawbacks must be studied and not brushed under the carpet for the sake of increased profits for tech/ social media corporations.

Developers of the Metaverse are grappling with hurdles related to privacy, child safety, inequality, legal concerns, and health implications. Current debates over online data sovereignty—where personal data has become an incredibly valuable asset—are set to intensify with the Metaverse’s rise. As this new domain further obscures the boundaries between our physical and digital identities, the risks associated with data misuse could also increase.

An article published on October 1st on the website of the U.S. National Library of Medicine titled “Emergence of the Metaverse and Psychiatric Concerns in Children and Adolescents” claims that as children and adolescents spend an increasing amount of time on digital media, there are growing concerns regarding the impact of this change on their mental and physical health

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and wellbeing. The Metaverse can harm children’s mental health, such as exacerbating depression, anxiety, addiction, self-harm, suicidality, or anorexia. Cyberbullying, sexual misbehaviour, exploitation of minors online, online gambling, privacy, and security issues can also become serious social issues among teenagers. Despite these graphic warnings, firms venturing into this area appear to be minimally proactive in mitigating these adverse effects.

Determining if the advantages of the Metaverse surpass its potential hazards is challenging at such an early stage in its evolution. Nevertheless, given the expected extensive influence of this technology on various facets of life, it is prudent to begin readiness efforts without delay.

THE TIME IS…NOW? Given the burgeoning interest, the global metaverse market is expected to undergo significant growth in the near future. The Metaverse is set to radically alter customer engagement, thus positioning early adopters who can maintain trust and confidence as front-runners in this space. These trailblazers have the chance to gain a competitive edge over their more cautious and riskaverse rivals by encouraging swift adoption and nurturing customer loyalty, presenting an excellent opportunity to get ahead in the market.

As individuals join this virtual realm, each will generate a distinct data profile, necessitating robust processing infrastructure. Importantly, this data must be housed securely, particularly when it relates to the financial activities of people and businesses. Blockchain technology, known for its focus on decentralised finance and governance, is seen as the most secure method currently available. The Metaverse presents a pivotal chance for blockchain technologies to gain widespread adoption, including NFTs and cryptocurrencies. With the verification and approval power distributed among all network participants in the Metaverse, these systems are deemed more trustworthy.

TECHNOLOGY

DRIVERLESS CARS A DISRUPTIVE DREAM

How will the potential of driverless cars be assimilated into society?

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION RES E A RCH

T E A M

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he twenty- first century has been characterised by a host of novel problems - increased threat of nuclear war, regionalism amidst rapid globalisation and rampaging environmental disasters. However, none of these come close to the disruption caused by emergent advanced technologies, often artificially intelligent (AI). These have caused political economists and theorists to consider different frameworks to analyse world systems.

We live in a world where governments and central banks set standards and regimes for global security and economic paradigms. However, the digital realm is largely ungoverned and takes exception to this fact.

Technological companies are globally minded, privately funded and run, and have become nodal points of big data. Governance of these technological firms is subject to geopolitical differences - legal and economic frameworks take time to develop and take ground. Even in the U.S. and China, where the most effective governance regimes exist, there are second thoughts about Big Tech. While the former is debating whether or not to limit technology firms’ autonomy, the latter has decided on strict state regulation to guide technological growth. The Indian case, as will be exemplified, follows a middle path between these approaches.

Driverless cars are an often-cited example of emerging artificially intelligent technologies disrupting societal structures. These have generated cross-disciplinary debate - legal frameworks on liability, economic disrup-

In the realm of legal frameworks, the advent of driverless cars introduces complex challenges, notably in the domain of liability. Unlike traditional vehicles, where the driver assumes responsibility for accidents, introducing autonomous technology raises pertinent questions about accountability. Will the liability shift to the manufacturer or the software developer, blurring the lines of responsibility and triggering legal conundrums? tion on jobs and supply chains, ethical consideration of accountability in case of mishaps, and international proliferation. Cruise and Waymo are pioneering ventures that have taken U.S. cities by storm, leading to rich political debates. The point is, is the world willing to learn from the American experience?

THE FUTURE IS SELF DRIVING CARS Driverless cars, powered by a sophisticated blend of sensors, cameras, radar, and AI software, represent a pinnacle in automotive technology. These cutting-edge vehicles rely on a complex interplay of these components to navigate through the complexities of the roadways.

Sensors such as Lidar and Radar play a pivotal role in enabling driverless cars to perceive their surround-

DRIVERLESS CARS - A DISRUPTIVE DREAM

ings. Lidar, an acronym for ‘Light Detection and Ranging’, employs laser beams to construct a detailed 3D map of the environment. Lidar gauges distances accurately by calculating the time taken for laser beams to bounce off objects and return. These sensors are typically positioned on car roofs. Radar, which stands for ‘Radio Detection and Ranging’, utilises radio waves to detect nearby objects. Positioned on the car’s front and rear bumpers, radar sensors determine distances and assess the speed of surrounding objects.

Cameras are strategically mounted on the car’s front, rear, and sides. These cameras are instrumental in recognising objects, deciphering road signs, and identifying traffic lights. Their capabilities extend to discerning colours, shapes, and sizes, enhancing the vehicle’s understanding of its environment.

However, the most important component determining driverless cars’ intelligence lies in the AI software that processes the data from these sensors. This software, driven by machine learning and neural networks, emulates human perceptual and decision-making processes. By analysing the sensory input, the AI software makes crucial navigation, steering, and braking decisions. Essentially, it acts as the brain of the driverless car, enabling it to operate autonomously and safely.

The advantages of driverless cars are monumental.

Safety takes the forefront; these vehicles are engineered to significantly reduce accidents caused by human errors like distracted or impaired driving. By leveraging their sensors and AI, they can swiftly detect obstacles and respond, mitigating the risk of collisions. This technology ensures road safety and saves lives. Moreover, driverless cars foster increased mobility for individuals with physical limitations or those residing in areas lacking proper public transportation networks. These vehicles offer a newfound independence to people who cannot drive conventional cars, enhancing their quality of life.

Additionally, the implementation of driverless cars holds the promise of significantly reducing traffic congestion. In an autonomous driving ecosystem, vehicles communicate seamlessly and adhere to optimised traffic patterns, traffic flow would be notably smoother.

This streamlined movement would reduce congestion, shorter travel times, and minimised frustration for commuters. While these advantages signal a new future of more efficient, inclusive, and smart road transporta-

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tion, significant challenges are engendered as a consequence of driverless cars disrupting the societal fabric.

ROAD BUMPS AHEAD At the political level, governments worldwide grapple with developing regulations that can keep pace with this whirlwind of innovation. The concern is that if every country went its own way, we would land in a fragmented landscape with varying rules for autonomous vehicles.

This patchwork of regulations fosters confusion among manufacturers and consumers. And even more worrying is the fear of the potential loss of jobs, especially in emerging economies with large populations.

If autonomous vehicles threaten to displace millions of jobs in the transportation sector, it will necessitate government intervention to maintain social harmony and political stability. Therefore, the plight of displaced workers may catalyse political movements, advocating for policies that address the challenges posed by the automation of the transportation industry.

The economic impact of driverless cars extends beyond job creation, profoundly affecting the traditional auto industry. Car manufacturers face the imperative need to adapt their business models, emphasising software development, AI integration, and data management. This paradigm shift poses a challenge to established players, compelling them to match the pace of technological evolution. Those who fail to adapt risk becoming obsolete in the face of a rapidly transforming market.

Advocates of new technologies set aside this fear, claiming that the new technology also heralds the dawn of new economic opportunities. Software development, data analytics, and autonomous vehicle maintenance are poised to experience significant growth.

The demand for skilled professionals in these fields is skyrocketing, creating avenues for employment in cutting-edge sectors. Additionally, the rise of driverless cars paves the way for innovative business models, such as ride-sharing services that exclusively utilise autonomous vehicles. These ventures generate employment and redefine the landscape of transportation services, catering to a tech-savvy population. In the realm of legal frameworks, the advent of driverless cars introduces complex challenges, notably in the domain of liability.

Unlike traditional vehicles, where the driver assumes

DRIVERLESS CARS - A DISRUPTIVE DREAM

responsibility for accidents, introducing autonomous technology raises pertinent questions about accountability. Will the liability shift to the manufacturer or the software developer, blurring the lines of responsibility and triggering legal conundrums? Determining culpability in the event of an accident becomes a formidable task, necessitating legal systems to adapt swiftly to this evolving landscape.

Furthermore, the proliferation of driverless cars raises significant privacy concerns. These vehicles are equipped with sensors and cameras that amass vast amounts of data about their surroundings and passengers. Since this data holds immense commercial value and can be exploited by law enforcement agencies given the chance, strict privacy and data security regulations will have to cover them. The legal frameworks will invariably have to undergo an overhaul to balance the need for data for safety purposes and ensure citizens’ privacy rights.

LESSONS FROM THE U.S. Cruise and Waymo have emerged as key players in the USA, shaping the narrative around autonomous vehicles. Cruise is a subsidiary of General Motors, conducting experiments with self-driving cars in San Francisco since 2017. Waymo is a subsidiary of Alphabet, the parent company of Google. The company has pioneered the development of self-driving cars since 2009 and has been conducting experiments in competition with Cruise in San Francisco since 2018.

The California Department of Motor Vehicles has been relatively open to experiments and has provided relatively lax regulatory frameworks despite some accidents experienced by the two companies. This, of course, has been the result of lobby groups operating in the state against political pressure to limit autonomous car proliferation. The people’s response has been mixed. While some have accepted self-driving vehicles as reliable conveyance systems, others have protested their rise, citing accountability, privacy, and employment concerns.

San Francisco residents have protested in front of the Motor Vehicles Department but have been unable to outlobby the companies. Some protestors have also started placing triangular traffic cones on the hood and roof of these autonomous vehicles to disrupt their AI operative systems.

Waymo and Cruise reported 103 and 68 collisions in San Francisco since Jan. 1, 2022, respectively. Waymo recorded just two incidents in which injuries were reported. Cruise, on the other hand, had a much worse injury report. Of Cruise’s 68 collision reports, 14 involved injuries - a dismal 20 per cent rate. In fact, Cruise vehicles have collided with a firetruck, driven into wet cement, and even pinned a person underneath it. Waymo, on the other hand, boasts a much better AI response system in case of unfortunate accidents - resulting in better injury statistics. Cruise has defended its record as such, citing that the collisions have been 65 per cent less than those

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experienced with humans behind the wheel. Moreover, Cruise cars have driven 10 x more miles in the recorded period. However, according to Missy Cummings, the director of George Mason University’s Autonomy and Robotics Center, Cruise has inferior neural nets that need retraining - making their AI software relatively ineffective compared to its competitor.

These companies are expanding to other states and cities, most notably Houston and Austin in Texas and Los Angeles and Santa Monica in California. Houston and LA confront significant challenges due to aggressive driving cultures. While driverless cars have been flourishing in sparse environments like Santa Monica, these notorious big-city traffic systems will determine their efficacy in society.

THE INDIAN EXPERIENCE The market for driverless cars is just emerging in India. The innovation is being led by Bengaluru-based start-up Minus Zero, founded in 2021 by Gursimran Kalra and Gagandeep Reehal. Their ‘zPod’, a toaster-like autonomous vehicle without a steering wheel, has been grabbing attention. zPod has reached level 5 status, guaranteeing fully autonomous conveyance, but has not been inspiring confidence for city-wide transport.

It has been restricted to closed campuses- technology parks, university campuses, corporate enclosures, etc.

Minus Zero has been quite successful in acquiring funding, with its seed-stage funding amounting to 1.7 million USD from angel investors like Chiratae Ventures, Snow Leopard Ventures, and IIT Mandi. Other driverless initiatives exist in India, more for industrial or commercial purposes. Mahindra & Mahindra has released blueprints for driverless tractors, and Daimler Truck Innovation Centre has been working on self-driving trucking systems. However, progress has been slow owing to lack of public traction.

Indian ecosystems have several challenges that American ecosystems do not. Road infrastructure in India suffers from variability - while some areas are suited towards driverless transport, other roads with common routes might not be up for the task. Moreover, the urban traffic in India far exceeds those found even in the busiest American metropolitans. The increased human element causes entry barriers for autonomous vehicles. Moreover, the fear of traffic congestion pervades tech-savvy cities like Bengaluru and Gurugram, causing distrust for autonomous cars.

The regulatory environment is lacking in India, causing companies a great deal of uncertainty in testing on public roads and gathering real-world data. In fact, the transport minister Mr Nitin Gadkari, has outrightly opposed autonomous vehicles to operate within India during his tenure, citing the preservation of driver jobs in the country. He estimates an additional 25 lakh driver job opportunities in the country in the coming years, which could be disrupted by self-driving vehicles. On a broader scale, one crore jobs in transport could be negatively impacted.

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

DEEP TECHNOLOGY AND LONG-TERM GOALS

“The national policy-shaping a country’s semiconductor policy must be advised by people who know this industry well.”

This article is based on the views expressed

by Prof Arogyaswami Paulraj during the 9th Synergia Conclave.

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he semiconductor industry is the key enabler for a country’s economic well-being and national security. For larger, more powerful countries, it is an important factor in geopolitics; in some ways, it is the pervasive foundation of modern society. In fact, all over the world, a power shift is happening between countries that have this technology and those that do not have it.

A STEP IN THE PAST A brief recap of the rise of the industry would be in order. The industry started in the 1960s with Bill Shockley, who invented the transistor, being one of the original players. After spending some time building sonar systems, he landed in Silicon Valley to start Shockley Labs, the very first semiconductor company in the world. He also partnered at that time with Jim Gibbons of Stanford University, and between Jim and Bill, the early foundations of industry were laid. Some of Bill Shockley’s staff, including Bob Noyce and Gordon Moore, left Shockley and started Fairchild Semiconductor. A couple of years later, they moved on to form this iconic company called Intel, which, as we all know, became very successful. In some sense, the Silicon Valley was born with Intel’s success.

The semiconductors have gone through a lot of technologies, upgradation, and scaling. We all know

But ultimately, it is about ‘the people’ who bring value to the industry. And the country that can find those people will succeed. The national policy-shaping a country’s semiconductor policy must be advised by people who know this industry well, who have worked in it for many years, know all the barriers, and can help shape the country’s policy to enter this very critical industry. about Moore’s law, where we double the economic value of chips every three years. But that law, that empirical kind of law, is slowing down. Many innovations-lithography and transistor structure, chip architectures, and new ideas for chipsets heavily driven by AI chip requirements are propelling the industry to new heights.

The market cap of the semiconductor industry today is about $ 600 billion. And there are three segments of the industry. The first is the Fabless Design segment.

The second is the front-end Foundry segment, which is the high-tech segment. And then the backend segment, it’s called the Assembly and Test, or the OSAT segment.

The Fabless segment is about $320 million in revenue and is heavily dominated by the American companies - Nvidia, AMD, and Intel. The Taiwanese-TSMC, UMC, the Korean Samsung and Hynix, and a few companies in Israel now dominate the fab segments. The backend segment of semiconductors is relatively low-tech.

DEEP TECHNOLOGY AND LONG-TERM GOALS

Some companies have their capital backends, and some outsource it; the main centre of the outsourcing industry is in Vietnam and Taiwan.

THE NEW AGE CHIP The key levers for semiconductor advancements lie in three or four key technologies. First is lithography, the ability to print patterns on chips. Lithography has many companies participating, including Tokyo Electron, ASML, and others, but ASML Holland has a key lithography technology. So, they are the single source supplier for 3 and 5 nanometres. The other areas of advancement are transistor structures like FinFET or Gate All-Around FET. Lots of innovations in recent years have made these very complex systems. New architectures like combining computing and memory are heavily driven by the demand for the most advanced AI chips for training and inference in computer architectures around AI. The most advanced AI chips now have multiple trillion gates. Nvidia is a dominant company in the United States, but China also has significant offerings in that space.

The normal measure of semiconductor technology is called the node size. The node size today in production is three nanometres, which would have been considered unbelievable ten years ago; probably the chips in your phone today, the latest iPhone or your Samsung phone, have three nanometres, not a five-nanometre chip. These are very high-technology systems. The fabs that produce them are $15 to $20 billion. But more than fabs, they require very highly skilled people.

Semiconductors are entering all kinds of devices and dominating their value. Seventy per cent of the cost of the phone is in semiconductors; a modern commercial jet would understandably

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have an equally large number of chips! The new generation of automobiles, especially EVs, practically run on semiconductors- from navigation to engine control to entertainment. Semiconductors dominate medical instrumentation in a big way; many are implanted in our bodies. Unsurprisingly, the total R&D investment in semiconductors globally is about $300 billion.

The level of skills that the industry absorbs is incredibly intensive- all of it is at the highest level of trained people, particularly those from top universities, including MIT, Stanford, etc. Government labs in Taiwan and the U.S. have also been a source of much technology.

The total investments in new manufacturing capability will be around $2 to $3 trillion in the next ten years.

Therefore, it is an area for high investments because of the strategic importance of this industry.

NO COUNTRY AN ISLAND! This industry is highly interconnected; it turns out that no country is self-reliant. A modern fab may have up to 10,000 suppliers spread over 30 or 40 countries.

Therefore, the goal for any country is to participate in this industry and pick up some value. Of course, the technology must be paid for, but it can later be sold. To become a semiconductor player, a country must join ‘the club.’ Of course, ‘membership’ does not come cheap as the industry has very high entry barriers - skills, a vast pool of experience, and multiple layers of intellectual property. But ultimately, it is about ‘the people’ who bring value to the industry. And the country that can find those people will succeed.

The national policy-shaping a country’s semiconductor policy must be advised by people who know this industry well, who have worked in it for many years, know all the barriers, and can help shape the country’s policy to enter this very critical industry.

PROF AROGYASWAMI PAULRAJ Professor Emeritus Stanford, Marconi Winner, Faraday Medal, 2023

ECONOMICS

THE LONE RANGER

Amidst heavy global headwinds, the Indian economy did well in 2023, strengthening the global prediction as a harbinger of growth and positivity.

Suchitra Padmanabhan is the Policy Research Associate at Synergia Foundation and has Post Graduate Degree in Social Policy & Planning from the London School of Economics.

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aving secured its position as the world’s fastest-growing major economy over the past two years, India is expected to maintain this status in 2024. The acceleration of urbanisation and industrialisation propels the nation into a rapid take-off phase.

Projections from the International Monetary Fund (“World Economic Outlook,” IMF, October 2023) indicate that the real gross domestic product is set to witness a growth of over 6 per cent in both 2023 and 2024. This anticipated compound annual growth rate surpasses that of China (4-5 per cent), doubles the global economy’s pace (3 per cent), and quadruples the growth rate of advanced economies (1.5 per cent) Anticipated GDP growth is projected to fall within the 6.5 to 6.8 per cent range, primarily driven by increased festive spending in the upcoming months and heightened government expenditures preceding the national elections scheduled for mid-next year. If geopolitical uncertainties ease and the global economy rebounds with greater momentum, India is capable of exceeding 6.5 per cent next year.

Of course, navigating through geopolitical uncertainties and a global economic slowdown poses undeniable challenges, and these factors are beyond anyone’s control. Therefore, India must look to its domestic demand, particularly private consumption and investment spending, to fuel its growth. India’s advantageous position in private consumption stems from the sub-

The IDU, the World Bank’s semiannual flagship report on the Indian economy, notes that despite substantial global challenges, India achieved a remarkable growth rate of 7.2 per cent in FY22/23.

This places India as one of the fastestgrowing major economies, with its growth rate ranking second highest among G20 nations and nearly double the average for emerging market economies. stantial size of its consumer base, escalating incomes, and the aspirations of its sizable young population, which ranks as the world’s largest.

Regarding investments, India remains an appealing destination due to its significant market size, operational scale offered to global companies, abundance of skilled talent, and capabilities in technology and innovation.

DECODING GROWTH In the first quarter, India recorded a growth rate of 7.8 per cent, closely aligning with the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) projection of 8.1 per cent. Notably, a significant portion of this growth emanated from robust domestic demand, resilient even in the face of a global economic downturn that exerted pressure on exports, causing a 7.7 per cent contraction after eight consecutive quarters of double-digit expansion. While the export decline was widespread due to moderating demand, the electronics goods segment displayed resilience, with its share in total exports surging from 3.4

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INDIA: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) IN CURRENT PRICES FROM 1987 TO 2023

Source : Statista

to 7.2 per cent within a span of two years. This growth was facilitated by global digitisation trends and India’s commitment to enhancing self-sufficiency in the electronics sector.

Private sector investment exhibited a year-on-year growth of 7.8 per cent, maintaining a steady momentum over the past five quarters, propelled by the crowding-in effect of increased government capital expenditure. A noteworthy aspect was the substantial revival of private consumption, growing by 6 per cent after two-quarters of lacklustre performance. Modest consumer spending had, to some extent, restrained private investment.

The robust growth in consumption during the first quarter is encouraging for investors awaiting sustained signals of consumer demand. The completion of investment projects, as indicated by the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy’s (CMIE) capital expenditure database, witnessed a significant upswing in the first quarter, with a strong pipeline of upcoming projects.

The manufacturing and construction sectors experienced substantial growth, with 4.7 and 7.9 per cent yearon-year increases, respectively. This was attributed to heightened government capital expenditure, increased demand for new residential properties, and declining input prices, reflected in wholesale and fuel prices. The services sector, particularly financial, real estate, and business services, was pivotal in driving overall growth, expanding by 10.3 per cent year-on-year, up from 6.9 per cent in the previous quarter.

This surge aligns with the consistent rise in the export of professional services, supported by an uptick in credit growth, improved bank balance sheets, rising deposits, and innovation in the fintech space. The trade, transport, and communication sectors also performed well, registering a 9.2 per cent year-on-year growth.

Contrastingly, growth in the agriculture sector decelerated marginally to 3.5 per cent year-on-year. In

June, the delayed onset of monsoons and uneven rainfall across the country impacted agricultural output.

Cumulative rainfall has been below normal, likely tempering agriculture growth in the first half of FY2023-24.

This slowdown in agricultural output may contribute to heightened food inflation, potentially weighing on consumer spending and investment.

The IDU, the World Bank’s semiannual flagship report on the Indian economy, notes that despite substantial global challenges, India achieved a remarkable growth rate of 7.2 per cent in FY22/23. This places India as one of the fastest-growing major economies, with its growth rate ranking second highest among G20 nations and nearly double the average for emerging market economies.

The resilience of India’s economic performance was bolstered by robust domestic demand, significant public infrastructure investment, and a strengthening financial sector. In the first quarter of FY23/24, bank credit growth surged to 15.8 per cent, surpassing the 13.3 per cent recorded in the first quarter of FY22/23.

The IDU anticipates continuing and intensifying global challenges, citing high global interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and sluggish global demand as persistent headwinds. Consequently, the report predicts a slowdown in global economic growth over the medium term, influenced by these combined factors.

India has increasingly become an attractive destination for multinational corporations across diverse industries, with foreign direct investment (FDI) reaching a new record high of USD 85 billion in the fiscal year 2021-22. This underscores India’s growing appeal as a favourable location for international investment.

Other recent economic indicators for India also continue to signal expansionary economic conditions bolstered by rising private consumption, growing gross domestic fixed capital formation, rising construction

THE LONE RANGER

output, rapid growth in key segments of the service sector, demand strength, and growing industrial production.

HASING MENT

FOREIGN

DIRECT

INVEST-

Foreign direct investment (FDI) into India has experienced a substantial and rapid increase in recent years, setting a new record at USD 85 billion in the fiscal year 2021-22, surpassing the previous fiscal year’s inflow of USD 82 billion. Although FDI moderated to USD 71 billion in the 2022-23 fiscal year, it is noteworthy that this starkly contrasts the mere USD 4 billion recorded in the fiscal year 2003-04. The consistent and substantial FDI inflows over the past decade have played a crucial role in reducing India’s external account vulnerability and significantly bolstered the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

A significant driver of the robust FDI inflows has been technology-related investments, emerging as a pivotal source of investment. In the fiscal year 2021-22, the Computer Software and Hardware sector received the largest share of foreign direct investment equity inflows, accounting for approximately 25 per cent of the total. Notably, U.S. technology firms, exemplified by initiatives such as the “Google for India Digitization Fund,” have been key contributors to recent FDI inflows into India.

Infrastructure investments have also been a notable sector for FDI, with a significant deal in 2020 involving a USD 3.7 billion investment by Singapore’s GIC and Canada’s Brookfield Asset Management in acquiring Tower Infrastructure Trust, the owner of Indian telecom tower assets. In the fiscal year 2020-21, FDI from Saudi Arabia witnessed a sharp increase, reaching USD 2.8 billion. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund made significant investments, acquiring a USD 1.5 billion stake in Jio Platforms and a USD 1.3 billion stake in Reliance Retail. Reliance Retail attracted investments from

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other foreign firms in 2020, including a combined USD 1 billion from Singapore’s GIC and TPG Private Capital and a USD 1 billion investment from US private equity firm Silver Lake Partners. Examining the sources of FDI inflows, Singapore, Mauritius, and the United Arab Emirates emerged as three of the top four contributors in the fiscal year 2022-23, alongside the USA. This underscores the growing significance of India’s economic and investment relationships with global financial hubs in emerging markets, complementing strong ties with advanced economies such as the USA, Japan, the EU, and the UK. Another noteworthy aspect attracting foreign direct investment into India is the rapid growth in the number of Indian unicorns—startups achieving a valuation exceeding USD 1 billion—over the past five years. As of mid-2023, an estimated 108 Indian unicorns had emerged, with 44 achieving this status in 2021 and 21 in 2022, according to Invest India, the National Investment Promotion & Facilitation Agency.

SPOTLIGHT MSMES India’s micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) are considered pivotal for generating income, building capabilities, fostering capacities, and establishing ecosystems that contribute to widespread and diverse growth in consumption and investment across all segments of the economy. This sector is expected to be a catalyst for innovation and the emergence of cost-effective opportunities, driving job creation and entrepreneurship, particularly among women in rural India. In essence, the MSME sector is poised to leverage India’s demographic dividend and the expansion of the middle-income class, unlocking potential benefits.

Encouragingly, the last two quarters have witnessed an upswing in the MSME sector. Emerging from the shadows of the pandemic, the gradual revitalisation of this sector is likely to play a crucial role in fostering broad-based growth at the grassroots level, which is

THE LONE RANGER

essential for sustaining long-term economic activity. As of the conclusion of FY2023, estimates indicate that India is home to approximately 75 million micro, small, or medium enterprises (MSMEs). This sector has played a pivotal role, contributing around 30 per cent to the country’s GDP, accounting for 43.6% of merchandise exports, and providing nearly 123 million jobs. With a significant presence in the microsegment and a robust foothold in rural areas, the MSME sector is well-positioned to meet the demands of rural consumers and those with lower incomes. Consequently, it serves as a crucial driver in reducing regional imbalances and ensuring equitable income distribution. Additionally, for India to generate income at the grassroots level and transition labour from agriculture to manufacturing and services, the MSME sector is of significant assistance on both fronts. Notably, a substantial portion of MSMEs operates in the services sector, constituting 57 per cent of the GDP, and fostering growth in this sector is imperative for sustainable increases in income and output.

Despite its significance, the MSME sector faces several challenges, some of which are structural in nature.

These challenges include limited access to formal credit, skill and technology gaps, inadequate infrastructure, and a complex tax structure, hindering operational efficiency and scalability. Such impediments have also constrained the sector’s global competitiveness. The MSMEs have been vulnerable to various factors, including fluctuating commodity prices, global trade dynamics, challenges arising from China’s market influence, and evolving regulations and standards. The recent pandemic exacerbated these challenges, leading to liquidity shortages, labour migration, reduced demand for goods, cancelled contracts, and disruptions in logistics and supply chains.

Encouragingly, the sector is gradually recovering from the crisis, with signs pointing toward steady growth. For instance, there has been a 33 per cent increase in loan demand in the first quarter of FY2023-24, coupled with a decline in delinquencies as nonperforming assets have improved across all types of lenders and MSME borrowers.

Technology has emerged as a crucial ally for the MSME sector, aiding in overcoming various challenges.

Many enterprises embraced digital services for self-registration and government support during the pandemic.

The adoption of digital payments also saw a significant increase, with 72 per cent of transactions being conducted digitally between 2020 and 2021. Technologies such as the cloud, automation, and robotics enhance forecasting abilities, streamline operations, reduce costs, and improve sustainability. Embedded finance startups and account aggregators facilitate faster credit access for MSMEs, addressing the sector’s significant challenge.

POLICY INITIATIVES The government has played a vital role in various policy initiatives, including the emergency credit line

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guarantee (ECLG) scheme and production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes. The government’s focus on sunrise sectors, such as green energy, e-mobility, semiconductors, and defence, creates new opportunities for MSMEs. The sector’s performance has steadily improved over the years, with many MSME units evolving into midsized corporates through greater integration with larger value chains.

Given the paramount role of the MSME sector, the Indian government must prioritise its rebound by addressing structural and institutional challenges through effective policies and recommendations. Initiatives promoting formalisation, addressing infrastructural bottlenecks, encouraging exports, and promoting digitisation will enhance the sector’s contribution to employment, income, and exports.

Attention must also be given to elevating quality standards and protecting MSMEs from brand dilution caused by low-quality products. Granting exclusivity and encouraging the safeguarding of intellectual property, inventions through patents, and registered designs will foster innovation and technology adoption. Making digital public infrastructure accessible and affordable will aid MSMEs in scaling up businesses, expanding customer bases, boosting entrepreneurship, and creating job opportunities, especially among women, unlocking untapped potential.

Assessment Multiple favourable trends converge from various facets of the Indian business ecosystem—spanning demand, supply, and overarching facilitative factors. In tandem, these trends possess the potential to surpass economic cycles, withstand macro shocks, and endure policy reversals. Some of these trends are novel, while others, having attained critical mass, are poised to synergise, forming a growth flywheel that can propel sustained economic advancement.

Several key growth drivers bolster the Indian economy’s long-term prospects. A significant positive factor is a large and swiftly expanding middle class in India, contributing substantially to the impetus behind consumer spending. The burgeoning Indian domestic consumer market and a sizable industrial sector position India as an increasingly crucial investment destination for a diverse array of multinational companies across various sectors, encompassing manufacturing, infrastructure, and services.

MSMEs are increasingly considered pivotal to India’s economic transformation and play a crucial role in income generation, capacity building, and ecosystem establishment. They contribute significantly to fostering diverse growth in consumption and investment across all sectors of the economy.

ENERGY & ENVIRONMENT

COP28: REKINDLING HOPE

The 28th edition of COP has set a clear direction for climate goals but lacks the necessary commitments for follow-through.

Maj. Gen. Ajay. Sah SM, VSM (Retd), is the CIO at Synergia Foundation, with experience in conflict resolution, peacekeeping and counterterrorism.

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he annual ‘jamboree’ on climate change, the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), took place in the glitzy desert city of Dubai from November 30 to December 12, 2023. It saw the confluence of global leaders, heads of state and decision-makers from diverse sectors, such as business, youth, climate science, Indigenous Peoples, journalists, and other experts.

In an unprecedented climate deal, almost 200 countries agreed to a decision calling on nations to transition away from fossil fuels at COP 28. The summit witnessed two weeks of negotiations fraught with differences. When COP 28 President Sultan Al Jaber slammed the gavel to pass the final decision, the delegates gave an ovation, and the UN climate chief hugged him.

Some hail the decision as historic, optimistically opining that it marks the beginning of the end of fossil fuels. Others point out that it is full of loopholes that give credence to fossil fuels, and it does not adequately support climate adaptation for those most vulnerable to climate change and energy transition for developing countries.

WHAT IS COP? The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is credited with the inception of COP in 1995 in its inaugural Berlin session. Designed

The most glaring failure was the lack of a concrete agreement on phasing out fossil fuels. This issue was particularly contentious, with major oil-producing nations resisting calls for a rapid transition from fossil fuels. Ultimately, COP28 could not overcome these differences, leaving the future of fossil fuels uncertain and jeopardising global efforts to achieve net-zero emissions. to assess member countries’ advancements in mitigating climate change and evaluating the effectiveness of implemented measures, COP has progressively become a lynchpin for global climate policy and collaboration.

Critical milestones in COP’s history include the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988, laying the foundation for a comprehensive understanding of climate change, the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, which set binding emissions reduction targets for industrialised nations, and the pivotal Paris Agreement of 2015 that the Kyoto Protocol, introducing the imperative to limit global temperature increases to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

COP conferences have witnessed the expanding role of non-state actors, including businesses, cities, and civil society organisations, in climate action and policy. Evolving in complexity and inclusivity, these gatherings focus on addressing climate change impacts and fostering sustainable development. The host country responsible for organising and setting the agenda

COP28: REKINDLING HOPE

has rotated among various locations, including Berlin, Copenhagen, Paris, and Glasgow.

THE AGENDA THIS YEAR This year’s agenda aimed to tackle crucial issues pertaining to climate adaptation, finance, loss and damages. This year’s COP28 holds added importance as it coincides with the inaugural “Global Stocktake,” an UN-mandated assessment providing a comprehensive report card on global progress toward the goals of the Paris Agreement. The much-awaited Global Stocktake represents the culmination of the first-ever evaluation of countries’ progress toward their climate goals.

This assessment is expected to underscore the importance of ambitious sectoral measures, effective adaptation implementation plans, just transition policies, finance evaluations, efforts related to loss and damage, and sub-national policies.

The report’s focal points include identifying action gaps and providing a foundation for new emissions reduction plans, climate finance commitments, and renewable energy targets. Hopefully, name and shame would force the worst emitters to mend their ways and reward conscientious countries with greater green investments, especially in the developing world.

The stated focus of COP28 was to recalibrate global climate action, emphasising the acceleration of the energy transition, substantial emissions reductions by 2030 to cap global warming at 1.5°C, and a central commitment to incorporating nature, people, lives, and livelihoods into climate strategies.

The pivotal and contentious theme of COP28 revolved around the future of fossil fuels. Sultan Al Jaber, the summit President and CEO of the UAE’s state oil company, Adnoc, ignited a debate with a controversial

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statement asserting that “no science” supported the phasing out of fossil fuels. This assertion directly contradicted the established scientific consensus outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, which unequivocally emphasise the imperative of swiftly transitioning from fossil fuels to limit global warming to 1.5°C and avert catastrophic climate change.

THE ENSUING DEBATE Al Jaber’s statement elicited widespread global outrage from scientists, environmental groups, and climate activists. Critics accused him of prioritising the financial interests of the fossil fuel industry over the well-being of the planet and its inhabitants.

Despite exhortations from more than 130 countries, scientists, and civil society groups, the agreement did not explicitly commit to phasing out or phasing down fossil fuels. However, it did call on countries to contribute to world efforts to transition away from fossil fuels and accelerate action to reach net zero by 2050. This was despite efforts by Saudi Arabia to remove any reference to fossil fuels.

This is the first time that a COP agreement has called on countries to turn away from fossil fuels. However, critics and global south countries pointed out that it failed to make provisions to help the most vulnerable cope with climate change impacts like extreme weather and heat. It also contained language that condoned fossil fuel interests.

Despite the controversy, discussions on transitioning from fossil fuels permeated the summit. Several countries, including the European Union and numerous island nations, reaffirmed their commitment to phasing out coal and other fossil fuels. Additionally, these nations called for tangible actions and financial support

COP28: REKINDLING HOPE

from developed countries to facilitate a fair and equitable transition for developing nations.

The fossil fuel debate at COP28 mirrors the broader global struggle between the imperative for immediate climate action and the entrenched economic interests tied to fossil fuels. While the summit made strides in raising awareness and fostering discussions around transitioning away from fossil fuels, the absence of concrete actions leaves the fate of our planet hanging precariously in the balance.

During the Global Climate Action Through Fostering Sustainable Finance event at COP28, the UAE Banking Federation announced a groundbreaking commitment to collectively mobilise over $270 billion by 2030. This financial commitment signals a significant step towards sustainable finance, crucial for supporting climate-friendly initiatives. The UK announced the incorporation of climate-resilient debt clauses in Africa, starting with Senegal. This initiative gained traction as 73 countries issued a call to action for adopting such clauses, demonstrating a global commitment to addressing the economic impacts of climate change.

France and Japan pledged to lead in supporting the African Development Bank’s breakthrough facility leveraging Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) for climate and development. This collaboration aims to channel additional resources to the most needed regions, utilising SDRs held at the International Monetary Fund. ReNew Energy Global Plc signed a significant memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Asian Development Bank for a funding of $5.3 billion, underscoring the commitment to advancing renewable energy projects.

The Arab Energy Fund unveiled plans to invest up to $1 billion over the next five years in decarbonisation technologies, aligning with the regional energy transition towards net-zero goals.

A consortium led by the Rockefeller Foundation launched a pilot initiative leveraging carbon credits to prematurely retire a coal power plant in the Philippines.

This innovative approach aims to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels, showcasing the potential of market-driven solutions in addressing climate challenges.

Canada, Brazil, and Egypt announced new methane regulations at COP28, contributing to the Global Methane Pledge. With 155 countries already signatories, this voluntary partnership aims to collectively reduce methane emissions by 30 per cent from 2020 to 2030.

THE OUTCOMES While the COP 28 deal may not help the globe maintain the 1.5 degrees C limit (even though it reinforced

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the goal), it is still a landmark in that it calls on countries to transition away from coal, oil, and gas. Many interpret this as signalling the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel economy.

The deal also called for tripling global renewable energy and doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. While it recognised the need for major emission cuts, it remains to be seen whether this will be reflected in the countries’ targets and policies they submit in their new commitments in 2025. Some countries (including China) objected to a statement that emissions should peak by 2025, so it was dropped.

A key criticism of the deal was that its language was conducive to fossil fuel continuance. It referred to the role of “transitional fuels” which effectively translates to natural gas or methane, contributing to global heating. It also accommodated carbon capture, utilisation, and storage.

Many criticise this as enabling fossil fuel producers to continue on the pretext that carbon will be captured. Not only does it give a license to fossil fuel continuance, but it is also a distraction from policies to cut fossil fuel use. While carbon capture and storage technologies (to remove carbon pollution from the atmosphere) may play a limited role in certain industries, they remain expensive and unproven at scale.

The deal also offered little on climate adaptation and finance, though it acknowledges that it requires trillions of dollars worth of support. However, on the summit’s first day, a loss and damage fund (a result of years of negotiations) was set up to help vulnerable countries repair climate breakdown.

Each country is responsible for delivering through its domestic policies in the aftermath of the deal. On a different note, the U.S. pledged to cut methane pollution in its oil and gas industry by almost 80 per cent by 2038. Fifty leading oil and gas companies, including Exxon and Saudi Aramco, pledged to cut methane intensity by 80-90 per cent by 2030. Yet, even while the COP deal calls for transitioning and fossil fuels are being phased away, new fields are being exploited.

The agreement’s call for phasing out “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” is also a first in that it identifies the role of fossil fuel subsidies in climate change. However, “inefficient” is a loophole that legitimises using LNG (liquefied natural gas) even though it may be as bad or worse than coal due to methane leaks. Incidentally, the U.S. is looking at a massive LNG expansion.

The COP 28 decision may not immediately affect the petroleum market. However, it does send a message to global markets and could lead to incremental policy and investment decisions that result in a shift in direction over time.

COP28: REKINDLING HOPE

One of the bright spots of COP28 was the increased focus on adaptation and resilience. Developed nations recognised the urgency of supporting developing countries in adapting to the impacts of climate change and building their resilience. This resulted in the launch of several initiatives, including the Santiago Network for Loss and Damage, aimed at providing financial and technical assistance to vulnerable nations.

Another positive outcome was the continued momentum for clean energy. Several countries made ambitious commitments to invest in renewable energy and clean technologies, raising hope for a rapid transition from fossil fuels. This was further bolstered by progress in developing a global carbon market, which could incentivise investments in clean energy projects. However, despite these positive developments, COP28 also witnessed significant missed opportunities.

The most glaring failure was the lack of a concrete agreement on phasing out fossil fuels. This issue was particularly contentious, with major oil-producing nations resisting calls for a rapid transition from fossil fuels. Ultimately, COP28 could not overcome these differences, leaving the future of fossil fuels uncertain and jeopardising global efforts to achieve net-zero emissions.

The first key issue is climate adaptation finance.

This initiative is intended to be a sum of investment for climate mitigation purposes, going from developed economies to emerging ones, according to the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR). This is predicated upon the fact that developed economies have become so dependent on using fossil fuels, which emerging economies cannot exploit given the present circumstances.

WHAT NEXT? However, it is not easy to make developed economies concur with climate funding goals, a reality that was so much in evidence during last year’s Africa Climate Summit. Of the 100 billion USD promised by 2020, only 68.3 billion USD was scraped through - that too diluted through other forms of foreign aid and purchased carbon credit points. While promises at COP are a commonplace occurrence, it is the implementation that lacks resolve when it comes to climate finance.

The COVID-induced economic slowdown, the resource-eating war in Ukraine and now the Gaza conflagration make future financial commitments even more uncertain.

This year, again, a major disappointment was the failure of developed nations to fulfil their financial commitments to developing countries. While progress was made on climate finance, developed nations fell short of the expectations of developing countries, leaving a significant gap in funding for adaptation and mitigation efforts. This lack of financial support could hinder the ability of developing countries to address the climate crisis effectively.

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Furthermore, although some countries announced new emissions reduction targets, the collective ambition remained insufficient to achieve the 1.5°C warming limit set by the Paris Agreement. This lack of ambition is concerning, as it suggests that the international community is not yet fully committed to taking the necessary steps to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

In the realm of climate adaptation goals, COP28 was anticipated to address transformative actions within key sectors and systems such as energy, transport, food systems, and land use. Hopefully, its outcomes delineate follow-up processes that will translate ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) into reality by 2025.

This involves engaging in dialogues to facilitate the development of new NDCs by participating countries.

Within the financial landscape of climate adaptation and loss and damages, COP28 aims to fully operationalise the ‘Loss and Damage Fund’, a consensus reached in previous COP sessions to harbour a fund dedicated to countries most affected by climate change.

INDIA’S ROLE IN COP 28 As a major developing nation with a growing economy, India played a pivotal role in shaping COP28’s discussions. While acknowledging the urgency of climate action, India emphasised the necessity for a balanced approach, considering the developmental aspirations of countries experiencing economic growth. India called for developed nations to provide increased financial and technological support to aid developing nations in transitioning to cleaner energy sources. This stance resonated with many developing countries facing the challenge of reconciling economic growth with environmental sustainability.

Assessment The COP 28 deal is a significant milestone and a landmark climate agreement that explicitly calls on nations to move away from fossil fuels and calls out fossil fuel subsidies, albeit with loopholes.

The loss and damage fund operationalised for vulnerable countries to mitigate climate damage is also a substantial contribution. However, the lack of additional financing to help developing nations meet the sizable costs of energy transition is a gaping lacuna in this deal.

The full impact of COP28 will take some time to unfold. However, the summit has undoubtedly raised awareness about the urgency of climate change and the need for collective action. It is now up to the international community to build upon the progress made at COP28 and take decisive action to secure a sustainable future for our planet.

HEALTH CARE

A FRESH PANDEMIC ON THE HORIZON?

A sudden surge in Mycoplasma Pneumonia cases set alarm bells ringing worldwide as fears of yet another pandemic spread globally.

Diya Celine Simon Research Associate in Synergia Foundation with a Bachelor’s in Media and Communications, English Literature and Psychology.

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fter the horrifying experiences of the COVID-19 outbreak, which started in China, any news of a fresh outbreak of some infection in or around China rapidly became viral. This phenomenon saw a repeat in the first week of December when there was an unprecedented jump in pneumonia cases among children in China. With memories of the Wuhan outbreak still fresh in minds, suddenly, there was global panic amongst healthcare organisations. The fears were real and justified since this was China’s first winter without COVID restrictions since 2020.

While the complication may seem intimidating, adequate health practices are the most effective treatment for pneumonia caused by the M species.

While Mycoplasma pneumonia causes the most infections, only about 10 per cent of people infected develop pneumonia. plicated by the resistant response from the bacteria, but the infection itself is generally benign.

A MEDICAL BACKDROP

To be fair, the outbreak was not exclusive to China.

Mycoplasma Pneumonia outbreaks in the USA, Denmark, France, China and the Netherlands have caused concerns to people. Ohio in the USA also recorded a surge of pneumonia cases, particularly in children. All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) hospital in Delhi detected roughly seven cases of Mycoplasma Pneumonia between April and September.

Just like COVID-19, Mycoplasma pneumonia quickly spreads through respiratory fluids when an infected person coughs or sneezes. Prolonged exposure to the aerosols with the bacteria increases the risk of infection. An interesting fact about the species is that it reproduces by binary fission. M. pneumonia outbreaks tend to occur in crowded spaces like school residences, military training facilities, colleges, hospitals, etc. The bacterial infection is asymptomatic for one to three weeks after exposure, after which mild to severe symptoms can last several weeks. The most common symptom is a dry, persistent cough.

The health authorities confirmed the sudden spike to be a usual mix of respiratory viruses and colder months, contributing to flu season. Professionals also claim that the COVID-19 population may be the root cause of the child infection rates. Nevertheless, owing to its atypic nature, the treatment process can be com-

However, the bacteria can also trigger tracheobronchitis (chest cough), sore throats, ear infections and pneumonia (lung infection). Some symptoms in children under five years of age include sneezing, coughing, runny nose, sore throat, watery eyes, wheezing, vomiting and diarrhoea.

A FRESH PANDEMIC ON THE HORIZON?

Mycoplasma Pneumonia is a bacterial infection colloquially known as ‘walking pneumonia’ because the symptoms are less severe but more prolonged than typical pneumonia cases. A study reported a 35 per cent prevalence of Mycoplasma Pneumonia infection in India. Patients infected by M. pneumonia can have a lowgrade fever, dry cough, mild shortness of breath (especially with exertion), and fatigue.

As early as 1944, scientists thought atypical pneumonia to be a virus or fungus, hence the name ‘mycoplasma’, which translates to fungus-formed. Eventually, they learned that a bacteria with unique properties caused it. They are the smallest organisms capable of living and reproducing on their own. It also lacks a cell wall, allowing it to alter shape and suit its surrounding conditions. A PubMed Central study states that atypical bacterial microorganisms cause 7-20% of community-acquired pneumonia.

Some M. pneumonia are resistant to antibiotic treatments. The overuse of Azithromycin to treat the infection is what medical specialists believe to have caused the drug resistance, resulting in higher infection rates.

Current data suggest the overall global prevalence of macrolide resistance in M. pneumonia may be around 28 per cent. Studies have shown that 50-90 per cent of cases are estimated to be caused by medications, and M. pneumonia is the most common infectious trigger of toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN), a severe kind of Stevens-Johnson syndrome.

TEN is a rare but potentially life-threatening condition. Certain medications trigger severe reactions on the skin and mucous membranes. Similar to the biological reaction during an allergy attack, when exposed to a certain trigger, the immune system overreacts, causing T-cells to fight the skin and mucous membrane, causing blistering, inflammation and tissue death. This complicates the treatment process; hence, people diagnosed need to provide a detailed medical history to avoid bacterial reactions or resistance to the medication.

CONCOMITANT COMPLICATIONS Mycoplasma Pneumonia is commonly considered a causative agent of community-acquired pneumonia

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and occurs sporadically throughout the year. According to an NIH National Library of Medicine study on M. pneumonia, 18 per cent of cases require hospitalisation of children. Studies in the 1960s on atypical bacteria suggested that infections were uncommon in children under five years and higher between the ages of 5-15. Interestingly, in recent studies, M. pneumonia occasionally occurs epidemically and is more common in children under five years. Professionals have claimed that the COVID-19 population is the root cause of the child infection rates.

However, the differential findings in half a decade not only relate to poorer detection facilities during initial research in the mid-twentieth century but also the concomitant nature of the bacteria. Medical reports of M. Pneumonia cases have regularly found secondary infections in patients and that it has an immunosuppressant effect. It intensifies the impact of other infections in the body. Innumerable statistics support frequent extrapulmonary complications of M. Pneumonia, with Central Nervous System manifestations being more frequent in children. Skin and mucous membrane manifestations are the most common, and a direct parallel exists between Steven-Johnson Syndrome and this species. Recordings have shown that one-third of patients have skin lesions. Other complications in extrapulmonary infections are heart blocks, rhythmic irregularities, urticaria, muscle and joint pain, severe pneumonia, asthma attack, encephalitis (brain swelling), hemolytic anaemia (low RBC count), conjunctivitis and renal complications, to name a few.

EFFECT ON ASTHMA The effects of M. Pneumonia species on respiratory functioning have been established. However, clinical studies have identified that the infection often precedes the onset of asthma, causing the respiratory tract to exacerbate asthma and increase breathing difficulties. A serological pathogen study found that only M. Pneumonia infections result in hospitalisation of adults for acute exacerbation of bronchial asthma. The infection triggers twenty per cent of exacerbations in asthmatic children, and fifty per cent of children experiencing their first asthma attack were positive for M. Pneumonia.

A FRESH PANDEMIC ON THE HORIZON?

DIAGNOSIS AND TREATMENT A healthcare provider begins the diagnosis by conducting physical tests and examining the person’s medical history. This draws back to macrolide resistance exhibited by the species that can trigger unwanted intra and extrapulmonary reactions. They carry out X-ray, blood and sputum tests and read the oxygen levels in the blood regularly. M. pneumonia is also known as “white lung pneumonia” due to the lung(s) of the infected person appearing white or spotty white. The infection appears differently on an X-ray in the lungs, so only a medical professional can determine the true cause of the infection. People at higher risk are those recovering from a respiratory illness, those with a preexisting lung condition or those with a weakened immune system.

While the complication may seem intimidating, adequate health practices are the most effective treatment for pneumonia caused by the M species.

While Mycoplasma pneumonia causes the most infections, only about 10 per cent of people infected develop pneumonia. M. pneumonia can be treated without antibiotics, but oral antibiotics for a cycle of two weeks help relieve patients of some symptoms and speed up the rate of recovery. Azithromycin is the most frequently prescribed antibiotic for children for five days, while Doxycycline and Moxifloxacin can be used to treat adults. After two days of continuous medication, the patient feels relief, but the cough can take a week to subside. Nasal sprays and humidifiers are ideal for decongestions.

In addition, a simple and well-balanced diet with plenty of fluids is crucial to a speedy recovery. There are no vaccines or preventive antibiotics for this particular bacterial infection, and good hygiene practices like washing hands after coughing or sneezing and covering mouthparts ensure minimal exposure to the infection.

CONCLUSION Though infections of Mycoplasma Pneumonia are rarely fatal, vaccine development is ideal as a protec-

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tive countermeasure. A meta-analysis on the efficacy of vaccines for M. Pneumonia concluded at thirty-six per cent, disregarding the etiologies. Despite the species being the most common causation agent of community-acquired pneumonia in India and globally, there is a dire need for vaccines for high-risk and the general population.

Good hygiene practices, rest and even adequate daily sunlight are the most surefire way to decrease the chance of infection. People with a compromised immune system or other predisposed respiratory problems should be cautious around those diagnosed with infection by maintaining space to avoid prolonged exposure. The infection should not be a major cause for alarm, but if a patient is suspected to have developed pneumonia, they must seek a doctor’s consultation immediately.

There is no need for panic as Mycoplasma Pneumonia is the most common causative agent for community-acquired pneumonia and occurs sporadically throughout the year, especially during the summer and fall seasons.

To avoid contamination, practice covering your mouth and washing your hands regularly, especially after sneezing or coughing. While the infection may be benign, secondary infections may be heightened by M. Pneumonia in the pulmonary tract. If you experience symptoms like skin lesions, ear infections, chest pain, kidney dysfunction and other extrapulmonary ailments, consult a doctor immediately. M. Pneumonia infections appear differently on X-rays, and only a medical specialist can diagnose you accurately.

The macrolide resistive and support behaviour of the bacteria is a greater reason to support the development of a generalised vaccine as a protective mechanism. Higher incidences in children should be considered since the COVID-19 population has lower immunity towards the infection, and adequate care and hygiene practices can be followed best at home. Since the infection is most likely to occur or worsen in crowded spaces, home recovery is recommended after a doctor’s consultation.

ANALYSIS

GAZA - A CONVERSATION

What does the future hold for the Middle East once the dust and debris of the fighting in Gaza settles down?

Synergia Foundation was able to organise a joint session on the ongoing war in Gaza, attended

by Mr Almaimouni Ahmed Ali, Director of Research and Studies Centre, Rasanah Institute, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and Mr Doron Shalom Avital, a former Knesset Member and an Israeli strategist. Excerpts of the conversation are incorporated in this article.

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he humanitarian cost has been enormous.

The geopolitical fallout is concerning around the world. What next from the Israeli point of view? Are we looking at an extended military occupation of Gaza? What do we expect next?

DORON SHALOM AVITAL: Of course, this was a terrible attack on our civilians.

The campaign that Israel has initiated in retaliation has two objectives. One, to eliminate Hamas as the ruling government power in Gaza, and the second, of course, to bring us our hostages back. But I think the official policy of Israel is by no way to re-occupy Gaza.

What would be the future of the state of Gaza? This is an open question. We have to deal with it in consultations with our allies. And when I am talking of allies, it is not only the U.S. and Europe. We are in this relationship with Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority (PA). But the conflict has to end first, and we must ensure it does not escalate into a wider regional conflict.

ALMAIMOUNI AHMED ALI: We are sad for the lives lost on both sides, not only now but for many years. Fighting does not resolve the conflict because blood produces more blood; unfortu-

Militarily, both sides are in a kind of a standoff; whichever side takes the first step towards a cessation of hostilities domestically may look as if they have surrendered their position. Of course, some deal must be worked out for the release of Israeli and foreign hostages in Hamas custody. But will Israel allow Hamas to continue in the Gaza Strip even if all the hostages are released? Or will Israel try to destroy Hamas as a military and political force in the Gaza Strip as long as it takes, despite the international pressure? nately, it is this bloodshedding that we expect to escalate.

The Israeli government did not respond to the peace initiatives proposed two decades ago. We came up with this Saudi Peace initiative. The Arab Peace Initiative, also known as the Saudi Initiative, was endorsed by the Arab League in 2002 at the Beirut Summit and re-endorsed at the 2007 and the 2017 Arab League summits.

The initiative offers normalisation of relations by the Arab world with Israel in return for a full withdrawal by Israel from the occupied territories (including the West Bank, Gaza, the Golan Heights, and Lebanon), with the possibility of comparable and mutual agreed minor swaps of the land between Israel and Palestine, a “just settlement” of the Palestinian refugee problem based on UN Resolution 194, and the establishment of

GAZA - A CONVERSATION

a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, but the fanatics in the Israeli government did not even deal with it. And this brings us to this moment where the people of Hamas penetrate Israel and kill and hold hostages.

The response of the Israelis (to the October 7th Hamas assault) is not proportional and does not take care not to harm women, children, elders, and installations like hospitals, which is sad. Before October 7th, there was hope that some sort of resolution was possible between the two parties (Israel and Palestine) and the normalisation of relations between Israel and the Arab world; the current situation is complicating the whole process.

It is as we have now been dragged back to the start of this whole conflict, the massacres that took place in 1948 and 1976.

I think Israel has entered Gaza without an end strategy and without planning for its consequences. We can imagine what will happen next; the victims of this war and their relatives will be the next generation of Hamas fighters who will keep trying to revenge and continue to control the government in the Gaza Strip. It will not be that easy to replace Hamas with another Palestinian government or any other Arab government as Israelis will not tolerate outsiders to secure the Gaza Strip.

We are in a dilemma that no one would like to clean the mess that the Israelis will leave behind them once they depart Gaza.

Who will start the first step? Is there a recognition that there has to be some road map for the future back in Israel?

DORON SHALOM AVITAL: There must be a roadmap, but I want to mention the Biden initiative involving Saudi Arabia. The Hamas has tried to derail this process through its October 7th attack. Israel was very much a part of the Biden initiative, which was a follow-up on the Abraham Accord.

Hamas is a brutal organisation; remember what it did to the PLO politicians when it won control over the

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Gaza Strip- it killed them all in cold blood. Therefore, we have to be very pragmatic about this conflict. Israel would not have entered Gaza to eliminate Hamas before the October 7th attack; now, elimination of Hamas is in the interest of the peace process, it is in the interest of the Egyptian government, and also, even if not openly said, in the interest of Jordan and the PA who regard Hamas as their enemy.

In previous conflicts, a bloody conflict had generated in the end some good outcomes; after the Yom Kippur war, we had peace with Egypt, which was a major breakthrough by itself. Even the 1982 war with the PLO 1982 ended with the Oslo Accord ten years later. Of course, these were accompanied by terrible bloodshed, which was a tragedy that cannot be ignored. After the October 7th massacre in which 1400 Israelis, mostly civilians, were brutally killed, including young people enjoying music at a mass party, Israel had no option but to eliminate Hamas. We believe this will ultimately benefit the peace process in the Middle East. And I hope this will get the Biden and Saudi initiatives back on track.

ALMAIMOUNI AHMED ALI: Well, without hope, we cannot live. We still have hope. We still would like to save lives in the Palestinian area. Last week, there was a big Islamic conference in Riyadh, where the leaders of 57 countries in the Islamic world discussed how to deal with this situation.

The only issue raised was stopping the fighting, stopping the killing of civilians and the destruction of installations and hospitals. This has never happened on this scale in the history of the Middle East. And we ask the question that while the Israelis never forget the Holocaust, they are causing a Holocaust in Gaza without recognising the rights of the Palestinians.

How do we move forward? We were already witnessing a war in the Ukraine. Now you’ve seen this conflict erupting out here. What do we take as the geopolitical fallout? A lot of steps forward that were taken in the last couple of decades seem to have been reversed. Is this irreversible?

GAZA - A CONVERSATION

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ALMAIMOUNI AHMED ALI: Some have alluded to the idea of the U.S. mediation in this conflict. It appears that the U.S. has sided completely with Israel. The Europeans are completely siding with Israel. And unfortunately, they are saying they are democratic countries and value human lives.

So, we are looking forward to some other nation that might step in as part of mediation like India or China, someone who is acceptable to both parties and the Arab world.

I believe, and I am not a government official, but I think the Arab initiative is still on the table. We can take it as a base to move forward. We have first to calm this current situation. However, some benefit from keeping this conflict alive and would like it to continue. They will keep spoiling any peace process which is not in their interest. So, we have to continue to work even if it means some sacrifices.

The Israelis, for a long time, had rich assets that they didn’t wish to give in return for nothing because they saw that the Palestinians could not give them anything. So why do we give something?

DORON SHALOM AVITAL: First of all, I want to go back to the allusions to the Holocaust. I think in Israel, we fought our wars fair and square against an Arab world that did not want us to exist. And, of course, we had our highs and ups. I was serving with Yitzhak Rabin during the Oslo Accord, which was a great optimistic moment, till Rabin was assassinated. Gaza could have been another Singapore if the people of Gaza wanted.

I think two things should be clear. First of all, Hamas, I think, is an illegitimate actor in the conflict, and I think every member of the Palestinian Authority would say the same; the testimony is the long-lasting conflict between the two. Second, we have to mention Iran. Iran is a player that is involved in the Middle East.

It is not clear to us as to why should they involve themselves? The Hezbollah on our northern border threatens us with 150,000 missiles and is financially supporting Hamas.

India was the anchor in the proposed corridor to connect Saudi Arabia and Israel to Europe. Israel was also very close to normalising relations with Saudi Arabia. Everybody knows that we have a good underlying connection with Saudi Arabia. So, there was a great potential here, derailed by Hamas, supported financially

by Iran.

I say to my Palestinian friends, my mother herself was born in East Jerusalem and was expelled in 1948 to the other side, so I’m a refugee; she was a Palestinian, and she had a Palestinian passport, as everybody had back then. I think the Palestinians have grown pragmatic. I’m an academic and not a great supporter of Bibi. We have to go forward but be pragmatic about the

Middle East and give up some. I don’t want to say it, but some kind of tactics that doesn’t leave us anywhere, politically pragmatic going forward with the Palestinians, surely. But there is this involvement of Iran. I hope peace with Saudi Arabia and strengthening the peace with other Arab countries will make a difference.

SYNERGIA ASSESSMENT Synergia Foundation has been tracking the Middle East situation for the last few years. It’s been one of our focus areas because we understand and appreciate the importance of this region to India as a growing power.

We tracked the Abraham’s Accord and the I2U2 (India-Israel-US-UAE Initiative), which in some quarters was called the Middle East NATO. Then, the crowning moment for India came in after the G20 in September when the India-Middle East Europe corridor was announced.

While we appreciated all these activities, which generated a lot of positivity, there was a nagging feeling in our minds because an important stakeholder in this entire jigsaw puzzle was missing: the Palestinian people.

Second, there are many vested lobbies in the Middle East, both within the region and external to the region, who have a certain amount of interest. And they were not happy in the direction this peace process was moving. And we at Synergia, on our various platforms, brought out that the peace process has to consider these threats.

On the 7th of October most of the world was blindsided and was surprised by what happened. Apparently, it looked as if the peace process’s complete dynamics under the USA’s leadership were on the verge of collapse.

However, we should not consider it the end of the peace process but a challenge. For both Israel and Saudi Arabia, and for that matter for India, the stakes are too high to regress to the old confrontationist stance. Militarily, both sides are in a kind of a standoff; whichever side takes the first step towards a cessation of hostilities domestically may look as if they have surrendered their position. Of course, some deal must be worked out for the release of Israeli and foreign hostages in Hamas custody. But will Israel allow Hamas to continue in the Gaza Strip even if all the hostages are released? Or will Israel try to destroy Hamas as a military and political force in the Gaza Strip as long as it takes, despite the international pressure?

INSIGHTS is a strategic affairs, foreign policy, science and technology magazine that provides nonpartisan analysis of contemporary issues based on real-time information.

To subscribe, sambratha@synergiagroup.in ; +91 80 4197 1000 https://www.synergiafoundation.org

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