Insights September 2024 by Synergia_Insights

SHARED VALUES, SHARED CULTURES AND SHARED FUTURES

EDITORIAL

Dear Reader:

Greetings from the Synergia Foundation!

This month, Synergia Foundation ventured out of the salubrious monsoon cooled environs of Bangalore to the Magadh region, rich in history and culture, to jointly organise the Nalanda Conference along with Nalanda University. The theme was, “Shared Values, Shared Culture and Shared Futures.” The event spanned two historically significant locations: Bodh Gaya, where Gautama Buddha attained enlightenment, and Nalanda University, an ancient centre of learning and spiritual wisdom. Many of the articles featured in this issue were curated from discussions that took place at Nalanda.

Synergia was also proudly represented at a BRICS event in Russia where the issue of popularising science to the new generation was discussed.

Our focus on the cyber world looks at how social media’s evolution has introduced new complexities for both platform operators and users. The banning of X by a judgement of the Brazilian Supreme Court is a prime example how even democratic states are compelled to curb the unlimited freedom enjoyed by social media. Of course, such a move attracts a storm of reactions from both sides of the aisle, which we try to capture.

Africa is an important subject for our insights and this month, we go back to the unending bloodletting in the Great Lakes Region, where Rwanda has over the last few decades emerged as a powerful player, despite its small size and lack of resources.

Naturally, the brunt of its attention has fallen on the Democratic Republic of Congo, a state that even providence seems to have abandoned, despite its vast natural riches.

Closer home, we analyse how Türkiye’s bid for BRICS membership has further raised the profile of this gathering. The recent subdued utterances of Türkiye at the UNGA where a mention of Jammu and Kashmir was conspicuous by its absence, may have been prompted by this fresh development.

Other interesting analysis this month are on Kamala Harris’ chances at the elections scheduled for November and an objective analysis of the emergence of a new political force in our next door neighbour Sri Lanka.

We hope our esteemed readers will continue supporting us as we strive to further evidencebased research on strategic issues with global resonance.

Sincerely yours

Maj. Gen. Ajay Sah Chief Information Officer

SPOTLIGHT STORY

SHARED VALUES, SHARED CULTUREs AND SHARED FUTURES

PROMOTING THOUGHT LEADERSHIP

THE INTELLECTUAL SHIFT

THE NALANDA SPIRIT

PEACE

CULTURE

BIMSTEC:

TECHNOLOGY

GEOPOLITICS

EXPLORING

ECONOMICS

ANALYSIS

SHARED VALUES, SHARED CULTURES AND SHARED FUTURES

Synergia - Bodh Gaya - Nalanda Conference

The spotlight articles this month are structured on the discussions during the Nalanda Conference jointly held by the Synergia Foundation and Nalanda University from 12-14 September. The Event spanned in two historically significant locations: Bodh Gaya, where Gautama Buddha attained enlightenment, and Nalanda University, an ancient centre of learning and spiritual wisdom. There could be no better location than Bodh Gaya and the Nalanda University to cultivate a dialogue between regional countries that share common values and cultural ties and envision a collective future built on peaceful coexistence and mutual respect. The initiative brought together participants from various countries including, Nepal, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Taiwan as also many diplomats and policy makers from India.

India is uniquely blessed that, in many ways, it is the source of great religious thoughts that have spread in the region and beyond over the centuries. The influence of Buddhism across vast swathes of Asia can hardly be ignored. In this context, the Indian outreach to its extended neighbourhood should leverage the legacy of Bodh Gaya and Nalanda to promote global harmony and peaceful societies.

The Magadh region, rich in history and culture, is ideal for discussions centred on peace, non-violence, and democratic values. The quadrangle formed by Nalanda, Rajgir, Bodh Gaya and Gaya, along with the lesser-known Ghelor Valley-where Dashrath Manjhi, a symbol of unwavering determination, carved a path through the mountains-embodies the spirit of perse-

India enjoys huge advantage of sharing a common culture with large number of its neighbours including extended neighbourhood within Asia. It is imperative that we focus on thought leadership in our neighbourhood, being critical to strenghthening the region.

verance and resolve (“sankalpa”) that should inspire us all in our pursuit of shared goals.

To realise these goals, several key initiatives that India can undertake are as follows: -

• Embrace Principles of Peaceful Coexistence: Advocating for mutual respect, non-aggression, non-interference in internal affairs, equality, and peaceful coexistence.

• Promote Cultural Exchange Programs: Encouraging the exchange of art, music, literature, and traditions to foster understanding and appreciation of different cultures.

• Facilitate Interfaith Dialogues: Organising discussions among leaders and followers of different religions to promote mutual respect and understanding.

• Encourage Collaborative Community Projects: Implementing joint initiatives involving diverse groups to build trust and demonstrate the benefits of cooperation.

• Leverage Digital Communication Tools: Using social media and online forums to facilitate dialogue and collaboration across diverse backgrounds.

• Establish Peaceful Coexistence Initiatives: Creating programs focused on promoting peaceful coexistence in conflict-prone areas.

• Support Grassroots Movements: Empowering local organizations working towards community cohesion and mutual respect.

• Advocate Policy Changes: Encouraging governments to adopt policies promoting inclusivity and diversity.

To achieve greater cooperation with mutual benefits, we need to create conducive environment for free flow of thoughts amongst all the stakeholders in the region. The exchange of ideas, leads to greater trust building which is the most critical requirement of the

times. The regional challenges if addressed collectively, can lead to creating stable and prosperous nations benefitting millions. To pursue shared future of the region, we need to strive hard to find regional solutions and forge sustained relations. We must attempt to craft a comprehensive strategy based on common interests and common values.

The benefit of such collaboration with the Indian neighbourhood would translate to fortifying the region as a resilient, resurgent and relevant group of nations in Asia.

Synergia Takeaways

There could be no better location than Bodh Gaya and the Nalanda University to cultivate a dialogue between regional countries that share common values and cultural ties and envision a collective future, built on peaceful coexistence and mutual respect.

The Synergia initiative brought together participants from various countries including Nepal, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Taiwan as also many diplomats and policy makers from India.

India shares common interests & values, the alignment of these commonalities within the region must be the endeavour by all nations of the region.

LT GEN G A V REDDY AVSM, SC, VSM (RETD)

Former

Deputy Chief of Integrated Defense Staff, DG-DIA and Chief Strategic Advisor, Synergia Foundation.

PROMOTING THOUGHT LEADERSHIP

Synergia endeavor is to build bridges constantly to create free environment for exchange of thoughts, ideas and different perspectives benefiting all of us in the region.

Tobby Simon is the Founder and President of the Synergia Foundation and a member of the Trilateral Commission.

The world is in the midst of rapid flux and multiple transitions. The past is no longer a reliable playbook for how the future will unfold. Preparing for what next is a monumental task, particularly in the face of disruptive technologies, political and societal shifts, climate change, future biological threats, the reshaping of global supply chains, renewed Great Power competition, changing demographics, and, of course, regional wars and conflicts that reverberate globally.

The key to thought leadership is prepare for the foreseeable future and prescience rhymes with those who can hear it coming. It’s not about predicting the future but developing foresight-anticipating what might be on the horizon. This requires thinking about multiple possibilities, building scenarios, recognizing patterns, having access to real time information and factoring the outliers.

WHO CAN PROVIDE THOUGHT LEADERSHIP?

Governments and businesses are often committed to managing day-to-day affairs and are motivated to follow business plans or prescriptive agendas that are linear. Consequently, leaders may lose sight of the importance to look ahead of the curve , think long-term and be able to mitigate challenges that are beyond their arc of expertise . It would appear that even the most reputed academic or research institutions, unless

Synergia’s intent of conducting a conference on shared cultures, shared values and shared prosperity at Bodh Gaya and Nalanda was to promote better understanding in India’s neighborhood. We examine how we can build bonds of lasting comradeship and be able to spot the future from our part of the world, benefiting the millions of people in the region.

mandated, funded and staffed to conduct ‘blue skies’ thinking, would conform to a problem-solving approach to issues. But such decoding is efficacious when there are known, defined problems for which solutions can be found post factum. The uncharted problems and opportunities of the future will likely be entropic and versatile as shifts converge into perfect tempest. In this age of rapid and complex transitions, we need mind space and institutions capable of standing apart from today’s challenges, envisioning future scenarios, and preparing predictable surprises before they unfold.

Think tanks serve as a crucible , aggregating practitioners with interdisciplinary backgrounds, foresight, and a commitment to providing non-partisan insights that aid informed decision-making. Given the mandate and funding, they should be able to look beyond the present and offer insights on what’s in the offing , how to prepare for it and navigate both the known unknowns and unknown unknowns.

Richard Cockett

British historian, journalist and author. He is a regional editor of The Economist, with experience in Mexico, Central America, Africa and Singapore. `

The contrast between Vienna, 1900 or 1920 and Bangalore and other places today is that Vienna was very politically light. It was intellectually and culturally rich, but in terms of politics, the forces restricting politics were very low and light in their touch. The Austro-Hungarian Empire was governed by a very light hand; it was a remarkably free, open, and unrestricted society. Nobody had passports, and you were allowed to travel wherever you wanted. Nobody was keeping an eye on you. There was no surveillance in the society. There was barely any censorship”.

WHAT DOES IT TAKE?

The best thought leadership emerges when leaders can discuss issues freely or even engage in unstructured, agenda-less conversations. In his recent book Vienna, Richard Crockett illustrates how some of the most impactful ideas of the West emerged from unbridled discussions among scientists, artists, economists, and political thinkers of diverse backgrounds in Vienna’s coffee shops during the late 19th and early 20th centuries. These intellectual exchanges fostered a pluralistic environment for creativity and foresight.

Major institutions like the University of Vienna played a crucial role, but informal settings such as coffeehouses were equally important, serving as gathering spots where thinkers and artists exchanged ideas.

The period was marked by a commitment to “exact thinking,” a term attributed to mathematician Kurt

Bill Gates co-founder of Microsoft

As we look ahead into the next century, leaders will be those who empower others.”

Gödel, emphasising methodological rigour and the application of scientific principles across various fields. This intellectual climate fostered ground breaking work by figures such as Sigmund Freud in psychoanalysis, Gustav Klimt in art, and Ludwig Wittgenstein in philosophy

Truly equitable discussions occur when no predetermined outcome exists, and everyone can freely express their thoughts. Thought leadership is more likely to be more efficacious when creative and intellectual outliers are allowed to influence mainstream thinking rather than being marginalized. Institutions like Oxford University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology , continue to lead in many fields precisely because they foster the integration of bright minds worldwide, bringing the fringe into the centre.

PUTTING THOUGHT LEADERSHIP INTO ACTION

In conclusion , thought leadership should not end with developing scenarios—it must prepare individuals, companies, communities, and nations to be proactive, mitigate challenges and turn risk into opportunities . The idea of organizing this conference originated from a few conversations with well-meaning people from our neighbouring countries , an example of thought leadership.

THE INTELLECTUAL SHIFT

Can Nalanda University provide students, faculty, thinkers, and intellectuals a platform to contribute to a different world vision?

This article is curated by Amb Pankaj Saran at the Synergia Bodh Gaya-Nalanda Conference.

Bodh Gaya and Nalanda are the sacred lands of Lord Buddha. It has an all-pervasive sense of peace and tranquillity; it is coming closer to communion with Mother Nature. Nalanda University is a great shared heritage, a global project to revive one of the world’s greatest and most ancient learning seats. The communiqué released on its establishment reflects its international legitimacy and international foundation endorsed by all the Presidents and Prime Ministers of all the East Asian countries, including China.

All the ASEAN countries, including China, Japan, and Korea, agreed to contribute financially to Nalanda. The idea was to have International ownership of this University. Students would come from all over the world to acquire meaningful knowledge. Nalanda is a generational enterprise. It will take time, so the first and the most difficult step is the first step in a thousand-mile journey.

RELEVANCE OF NALANDA

Nalanda reminds us that before colonialism, this part of the globe and our boundaries were different; we were a rich, thriving, vibrant civilisation. We were the knowledge holders and the contributors to global innovation, like Aryabhata and many others. The shift in intellectual thinking, which went from here to Europe and America, was a major contributor to Nalanda’s decline. We should never allow ourselves to forget

history as some of the schools and departments of this University are unique; they don’t exist at any university in India.

Today, the world is engulfed in war, conflict and hatred, and nothing seems to be working. The United Nations itself seems to be in a state of complete crisis. Whether you look at Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, or Yemen, all you see is death, destruction, and hatred.

No solutions seem to be coming forth on how to stop this madness of war and conflict. Therefore, thinking about our shared values, cultures, and future is a great moment.

We need to take a step back and ask ourselves what humanity means. What is the meaning of progress? Is this the meaning of progress that we progress materially, economically, yet you cannot give up your dislike, hatred, and animosity towards each other? Lord Buddha attained enlightenment here under the Mahabodhi temple and in many other sacred and venerable places in this few hundred square kilometres of territory.

Can we provide and create the Nalanda vision for the world? I think the world desperately needs an alternative voice.

The people who are supposed to be global peace and security custodians are at war with themselves today. They don’t have time for societies like ours. We have been left to ourselves, and we need to understand this. We cannot look for solutions to others. The solutions lie within ourselves, presenting today’s intellectual and moral challenge. Are we intellectually capable? Do we have integrity, the fire inside us, desperation, and the urge to find models? To find solutions to problems.

Life is not equal; some people are fortunate, but there is a vast humanity still suffering and living the life lived a hundred years ago. Who is going to speak for them? Who is going to empower them? Governments cannot do it. We should abandon the notion that someone else will do it. There is no one else out there who’s going to do it. We have to do it ourselves, and I think Indians, as a whole, should give up this idea that government is the solution for everything. We cannot abdicate our individual and societal obligations to the state.

We have to respect the power of the individual, and the power of our community and say that the first step in the transformation of societies begins with us.

Before we criticise or blame someone else for our problems, we should leave all that baggage aside and introspect. This is the first step in the process of enlightenment: when you can introspect and go inside yourself. Am I not good enough to be the transformation that society needs? Regardless of Nalanda’s starting troubles, we should not give up.

A REGIONAL AND GLOBAL EFFORT

We share a common future with many of our regional neighbours. Some of these countries are economic marvels that have proved what economic success means to the world. Many of them are Buddhist countries that have achieved phenomenal socio-economic transformation from which India itself has to learn.

Narendra Damodardas Modi Prime Minister of India

The renaissance of Nalanda University near its ancient ruins will introduce India’s potential to the world. Nalanda is not just a renaissance of India’s past; the heritage of many countries and Asia is linked to it. In days to come, Nalanda University will once again become a major centre for our cultural exchange.”

But we can all work and move together because, in this journey that we have embarked upon, there is no big, no small.

We are living in very exciting times as far as Indians are concerned. Ten years ago, for example, this University was nothing-just paddy fields. Today, this huge structure has come up.

There are similar stories in every corner of our great land of India, from the north to the south, east to west, and there is a huge amount of restlessness and impatience to transform quicker and earlier than we did in the past. The information revolution and the technology revolution are contributing to empowerment and inclusivity.

Today, you can access the same information globally as you would get sitting at the best University, Oxford University. This is the marvel of technology. From here, we can create change agents and champions of thought.

There is no disadvantage left anymore. If there is any disadvantage, it is in our minds. I would ask us to liberate Our minds and allow our imaginations to run wild, allow ourselves to experiment, make mistakes, think out of the box in a manner that transcends traditional national boundaries and borders and rediscover the idea that humanity is one.

THE NALANDA SPIRIT

Can Nalanda University provide students, faculty, thinkers, and intellectuals a platform to contribute to a different world vision?

This article is curated by Prof Rohan Gunaratna at the Synergia Bodh Gaya-Nalanda Conference.

The genesis of Nalanda University is traceable back to the devastating Kalinga War fought between the Mauryan Empire under Ashoka and the independent state of Kalinga. According to historical accounts, 150,000 people were killed, another 150,000 were taken as prisoners, and countless others suffered from the destruction and displacement caused by the conflict.

Witnessing the bloodshed, anguish, and devastation, Ashoka experienced deep remorse and sorrow. This moral reckoning led Ashoka to renounce violence and warfare and embrace Buddhism as a path of peace, compassion, and non-violence. Ashoka dedicated the rest of his reign to the promotion of dharma (righteousness), and the welfare of his people.

Ashoka’s shift towards Buddhism and his emphasis on education and moral governance laid the intellectual and spiritual groundwork that would later inspire the creation of Nalanda, one of the greatest centres of learning in the ancient world.

Ashoka then sent his daughter and son, Mahinda and Sanghamitra, to Sri Lanka as emissaries of Buddhism. Not only did he send his son and daughter, his most precious treasures in his family, but he also sent many other emissaries around the world.

A GLIMPSE INTO THE PAST

Ancient Nalanda University had an architecture and an engineering faculty, and metallurgy was one of the

The relevance of the University of Nalanda goes far beyond being only one of Buddhist studies. Historically, Nalanda covered a wide range of faculties, including a dedicated faculty for medicine. Given this rich history, a modern Nalanda University should reflect its ancient predecessor’s spirit of diversity and inclusiveness.

topics that attracted global attention. In the first phase of Nalanda, the residents and scholars were monks.

They were monastic. But later, they transformed into scholars and laypeople. By embracing this broader mission, Nalanda could become a vibrant, globally respected institution, representing the intellectual diversity that defined its golden era.

It should encompass various academic faculties, encouraging multidisciplinary research and fostering dialogue between ancient wisdom and modern science.

Rather than being confined to Buddhist studies, it should invite engagement across various fields, such as the humanities, sciences, social sciences, and emerging technologies. This approach would honour its histori-

cal essence as a global hub for knowledge exchange and inquiry while remaining relevant to the challenges of today’s world.

Before Nalanda was created, there were at least five or six universities in this region. This was a knowledge hub like Oxford, Cambridge, and St. Andrews.

CHINA CONNECTION

Before the very creation of Nalanda, a Chinese monk named Fa Hien visited Rajgir in this region. As a devoted Buddhist, he was deeply concerned about the incomplete and inaccurate Buddhist texts in China at the time.

Motivated by a desire to obtain authentic Buddhist scriptures, especially those relating to monastic discipline (the Vinaya), he embarked on a daring pilgrimage to India, considered Buddhism’s homeland.

Fa Hien visited here before the creation of Nalanda; he collected several manuscripts from this region, which was very well known for copying manuscripts.

At that time, there was no printing press for translating manuscripts, so he collected many manuscripts and went to Sri Lanka. In Sri Lanka, he collected more manuscripts and travelled on the Porcelain Road maritime route.

While passing the coast of Sumatra, his ship was caught in a deadly storm. To lighten the load and stabilise the ship, the panicked ship captain wanted to throw the heavy manuscripts into the sea.

And at that point, Fa Hien said, “Throw me into the ocean. Don’t throw the manuscripts because they are precious treasures—knowledge and understanding.” But just then, the tornado ceased, and the manuscript survived.

The emphasis should be on academic excellence, the exchange of ideas, and a commitment to addressing the world’s pressing issues through the lens of both ancient wisdom and modern innovation. That should be the spirit of Nalanda”.

~Prof Rohan Gunaratna

These manuscripts were then taken to Xi’an, the city of the world-famous terracotta warriors. Xi’an is China’s greatest historical site, and those manuscripts are still preserved there. Numerous Chinese scholars have written about Nalanda and the other universities that existed here.

Fa Hien took a very important text, the text on discipline. The text was primarily for the monastic order because the Buddhists had a strict code of discipline, which influenced Christianity in many ways. So, when Fa Hien took the Vinaya Pitaka, a different Pitaka from the Abhidhamma Pitaka, it formed the foundation for Chinese discipline, making China a great nation until communism. Communism brought a different discipline, which may not be the discipline we all like.

It is a pity that India is now ranged against China along with the U.S. China and India were friends until the 1962 border war; they had a friendship for two to three thousand years. Nalanda itself is a witness to it. How many Chinese came here to study? How many Taoists came here to study? How many Confucius monks and laymen came here to study?

LEADING INTO THE 21ST CENTURY

Bihar, the home state of Nalanda, has a great deal of scope to develop, and Nalanda could be a huge cat-

alyst for intellectual and economic development. The subjects that were taught at Nalanda of the past were considered not only the arts but also the sciences.

Building world-class educational facilities requires investments in roads, transportation networks, housing, and utilities, which could spur broader infrastructure development in the surrounding areas.

Improved infrastructure would benefit the university and the local communities, attracting domestic and international tourists, researchers, and students. Modern amenities such as smart city initiatives and better public services could transform the region into an education and research hub.

Building Nalanda into a key centre for negotiation, dispute resolution, and arbitration is important. This can be a very important centre for the world. Nalanda University should not be a Buddhist university. If you are a Buddhist university, your reach will be limited to the Buddhist community. But if you are not a Buddhist university, you will be able to reach a wider population and influence them.

In Singapore, there is a common religious space. We look at all the great religions and take what is common from them. Here, we follow the golden rule, “Don’t do to others what you don’t want to happen to you.” This rule is followed in Buddhism, Zoroastrianism, Manichaeism, Jainism, and even the Baha’i faith. We must create a specialist capability to look at what is common to all these faiths, including Islam.

Then, we can invite to Nalanda those who are the predecessors of Bhaktia who are in Afghanistan. Invite them to come and study here. It will cause some cognitive dissonance in them. We must reach out to our friends and enemies, opponents, adversaries, and those on the fence.

Diplomacy is traditionally understood as a complex interplay of politics, economics, and defence. These pillars have long shaped the relationships between nations, with negotiations, trade agreements, and strategic alliances forming the core of international diplomacy. However, in a rapidly globalising world, where

General Anil Chauhan PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SM, VSM, ADC, Chief of Defence Staff

The world is in the most violent phase of its existence since World War II; India has its own share of security challenges. We have proxy war raged by Pakistan in Jammu and Kashmir, whose sudden escalation we are now seeing south of Pir Panjal. The prolonged border dispute with China is yet to abate. These are two major security challenges that we face. The instability in our neighbourhood is another cause of concern for us”.

cultural identity, shared values, and spiritual traditions are becoming increasingly important, the role of diplomacy is evolving. With its rich historical and cultural legacy, Nalanda University is uniquely positioned to lead this transformation and redefine the contours of modern diplomacy.

The new face of diplomacy that Nalanda can spearhead should be based on culture, religion, and common values. It should transcend the traditional focus on power, economic interests, and military strength.

Instead, it should be based on the softer, yet impactful, pillars of culture, religion, and shared values. These elements can serve as bridges that unite people across borders, fostering mutual understanding, respect, and collaboration in ways that hard diplomacy often fails to achieve.

Nalanda University can offer a new vision for diplomacy in the 21st Century that moves beyond traditional geopolitical frameworks’ limitations. By focusing on culture, religion, and common values, it can facilitate deeper connections between nations and peoples, promoting peace, cooperation, and mutual understanding in a world that desperately needs it.

This new model of diplomacy, rooted in the human spirit, could serve as a powerful tool for addressing both the challenges and opportunities of our interconnected world.

PROFESSOR ROHAN GUNARATNA

Professor

of Security Studies

the

S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore

PEACE THROUGH SHARED CULTURE

Of-that high dawn which came with victory, that far and near in homes of men there spread an unknown peace. All evil hearts grew gentle, kind hearts gentler as the balm of the divinest daybreak lightened earth.” Lord Buddha

The words expressed by Lord Buddha at the time of his enlightenment are of universal application in perpetuity.

Today, we stand at a pivotal moment in history. The Bay of Bengal region, the cradle of ancient civilizations and now a hub of modern commerce, faces complex challenges that transcend national borders - natural disasters, climatic vagaries, economic distress, want, inequalities, ethnic conflicts, and cyber threats.

The common elements of misery and anxiety intertwine us and make us concerned about our shared destinies. It is the negativity that binds us at times. Being so close and connected, the remedies of these problems shall also emerge from our shared values.

Indeed, peace, non-violence, democratic traditions, inclusive development and economic integration are the well-identified elements that can free the world from maladies. Every society, nation, and leadership desire peace in their land and dominion-no one desires unrest.

So, the question arises: how can peace be achieved? Peace cannot be imposed; it must be awakened by instilling a sense of hope, goodwill and understanding. Faith in human goodness must be revived among the general populace, not just among diplomats and political leaders. People-to-people contact and social initiatives can do wonders. For instilling hope and faith in human goodness, we need to strengthen our democratic values and our traditions. This is not strange for this part of the world; all Eastern nations know diversity, plurality, tolerance, concord, syncretic beliefs, and cultural

Inclusive development and economic integration can free the entire region from many problems that obstruct the growth and happiness of the societies.

blending which have been the age-old ways in our societies. In many cases, it is the nature of development that is affecting most nations.

So inclusive development and economic integration can free the entire region from many problems that obstruct the growth and happiness of the societies.

India has a worldview of peace, from the Vedic times when Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam was declared to the present day when we talk about Panchamrit. The emphasis has been on constructive, friendly relationships among the nations.

Dharma is our concept that is acceptable to all sects, whether orthodox or heterodox, as a guiding power to be valued. Call it duty, call it law, ethics or right conduct.

It is righteousness, and that righteousness should be obligatory to be observed by men and institutions in their different roles and deliverance of their duties. Deviation from that righteousness causes injustice, which breeds conflicts. Being traditional societies and ancient civilizations, our countries need not be shy to refer to these cultural values because the principles of diplomacy as they emerged in the West have failed to bring the type of peace experienced earlier when our traditions were the guiding force.

Times have come that the ethical righteous element of dharma, which resides in our cultural repositories, must be explored. The unity of minds, the unity of good intentions and the unity of voices have tremendous power.

PROF. ABHAY KUMAR SINGH

Vice

Chancellor, Dean of School of Historical Studies. Dean of lnternational Relations, Nalanda University.

This article is curated by Prof Abhay Kumar Singh at the Synergia Bodh Gaya-Nalanda Conference.

BIMSTEC: SHARED FUTURES

BIMSTEC Plus represents not only an economic framework but a celebration of our cultural heritage.

This article is curated by Mr. Sunil K C at the Synergia Bodh Gaya-Nalanda Conference.

The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is a regional organisation established on 06 June 1997 with the signing of the Bangkok Declaration. Initially known as BIST-EC (Bangladesh-India-Sri Lanka-Thailand Economic Cooperation), the organisation is now known as BIMSTEC and comprises seven Member States, with the admission of Myanmar on 22 December 1997 and Bhutan and Nepal in February 2004.

BIMSTEC stands as a bridge between South and Southeast Asia, representing a confluence of diverse cultures, economies and ecosystems. Member states include Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, India, Sri Lanka, and Thailand, share not only geographical proximity but also historical linkage, deep-rooted values, spiritual connections and a commitment for collaboration in today’s world. These shared cultures and values are important for sustainable and inclusive regional development through economic integration by the BIMSTEC Plus.

DECODING BIMSTEC PLUS

Culture is a catalyst for integration. At its core, BIMSTEC Plus represents not only an economic framework but a celebration of our cultural heritage. This potential was firmly identified as an arena for cooperation during the inaugural BIMSTEC summit of July 2004.

While culture forms the backbone of the cooperation, the future depends on economic integration that is both sustainable and inclusive. The challenges of the 21st century, such as climate change, technological disruption, and growing inequality, require reimagining how we work together for mutual benefit. We must focus on building economies that not only grow but also uplift all sections of society.

Civilisation within the Bay of Bengal region has been interconnected for centuries through exchanging goods, people, services, and ideas. From the Buddhist spiritual networks to the ancient maritime circles, our ancestors laid the foundation of regional connectivity long before modern trade agreements existed. These historical ties provide the cultural foundation upon which economic and political cooperation can flourish in the days to come.

Cultural values such as language, cuisine, festivals, and art present vast opportunities for regional tourism, creative industries and cross-border collaborations in media and education. By leveraging these traditions, we can foster people-to-people connections, self-power diplomacy and the development of regional identity, which strengthens economic ties.

Through BIMSTEC, South and Southeast Asia are bridging their diverse cultural, economic, and ecological landscapes, creating a dynamic and integrated regional framework. This collaborative approach reflects the shared vision of fostering peace, stability, and prosperity in the region, paving the way for a more interconnected and resilient future.

UNLOCKING THE POWER OF MUTUAL COOPERATION

The rich diversity of language, arts, crafts and traditions offer a foundation for multidimensional cooperation that transcends borders and political differences. Similarly, tourism was identified as a key area of cooperation.

By coordinating efforts to promote tourism, we can further tap into the region’s cultural assets, increasing regional mobility and boosting local economies. These initiatives deepen cultural ties and promote economic integration by stimulating sectors like tourism, hospitality, and creative economy, laying the groundwork for sustainable and inclusive regional development. Next is the vision for a sustainable and inclusive future.

Women, young people, and marginalised communities should be central to our regional development strategies. By integrating them into the economic fold, we create resilient economies that thrive on diversity and inclusivity, economic integration, pathways, and priorities under the BIMSTEC.

Economic integration in BIMSTEC offers transformative potential. The region collectively represents 1.5

billion people and a combined GDP exceeding $40 trillion. To harness this, we must prioritise infrastructure development as number one.

Infrastructure development, efficient and sustainable transport and digital infrastructure are key to unlocking intra-regional trade and investment.

Asian highways, inland waterways, and the Bangladesh, India, Bhutan, and Nepal initiatives (BBIN) can significantly enhance regional mobility and facilitate the smooth movement of goods and people in the region. These networks will boost trade and integrate supply chains across borders, enabling economic growth in the underdeveloped areas in the BIMSTEC regions.

Additionally, energy connectivity, particularly through renewable sources, should be central to the agenda, ensuring that economic growth is environmentally sustainable. Nepal supplies around 400 megawatts of power to India and will soon supply 40 megawatts of power to Bangladesh.

This is one example of developing countries starting to improve in the energy export market to India and Bangladesh. Nepal and Bangladesh have signed a 10,000-megawatt electricity purchase agreement for the next ten years.

While such deals are a testament to the bilateral partnership, it must be expanded beyond bilateral. Tomorrow, it may be possible to supply Nepal’s power to Sri Lanka through the cable link, which India is currently developing. Stimulating cross-border procedures, enhancing regional supply chains, and encouraging investment in key sectors like agriculture, technology, and manufacturing are critical for building a cohesive regional economic network.

THE DIGITAL ECONOMY LANDSCAPE

The digital economy has immense potential to transform trade, investment, and tourism. By fostering digital platforms for commerce, e-governance, and cross-border payments, we can simplify business processes, enhance regional connectivity, empower small and medium-sized enterprises.

Digital tourism portals, virtual trade fairs, regional fintech ecosystems can provide the backbone for more seamless trade, investment, and travel across the BIMSTEC nations.

Nepalese will have the chance to pay through a QR code in India in the next two or three months. Indians have already started paying through a QR code in Nepal since the first of March. This is a good example of the bilateral digital economy system.

Another very important thing that is lacking is skill development and innovation. Investing in education, skills, and innovation is crucial for creating a competitive regional workforce that can adapt to the challenges of the global economy, particularly in digital technol-

We need to build a future where no one is left behind in the development process. So BIMSTEC tech plus, drawing on our culture, values, and futures, offers us the blueprint for social progress and environmental state worship. In this endeavour, I believe we have both the will and the capacity to transfer our vision into reality”.

~KC Sunil

ogies, green energy, and healthcare systems. By promoting regional tourism, we boost local economies and foster greater cultural understanding and cohesion. To facilitate this, we need e-visas and online facilitation to harness the full potential of our cultural heritage.

CONFRONTING CLIMATE CHANGE

Sustainability must be at the core of regional development strategies. BIMSTEC nations can work together to promote sustainable practices across key sectors.

For instance, smart farming techniques and precision agriculture can optimise resource use and increase productivity while minimising environmental impact. In the energy sector, a shift towards renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and hydropower, can reduce reliance on fossil fuels and lower greenhouse gas emissions.

Addressing climate change as a shared responsibility is paramount. The Bay of Bengal is highly vulnerable to rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and ecosystem degradation. We must adopt collective strategies to mitigate these high risks as a region.

BIMSTEC nations can lead in green technologies, disaster resilience, and sustainable practices. We can strengthen cooperation in fields like climate, smart agriculture, renewable energy, and marine conservation to ensure that development does not come at the cost of our environment. National policies must be aligned with international climate agreements and set ambitious emission reduction targets.

REACHING OUT BEYOND THE REGION

The BIMSTEC plus vision looks beyond current geographical boundaries, aiming to forge partnership with other regional organisations like ASEAN, SAARC, and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA). This approach allows us to build wider economic corridors, facilitating trade with other important global economies.

Such multi-layered cooperation will help us collectively face global uncertainties while staying committed to our prosperity, sustainability, and inclusivity goals. It is essential to remember that economic integration is not merely about numbers, trades, investments, or growth statistics. It is about building a future where the aspirations of every citizen, from the remotest place to the busiest metropolitan cities, are realised.

Prosperity, sustainability, and inclusivity goals are not just aspirational; they are actionable commitments that drive the region’s development agenda.

H.E. Mr. Indra Mani PANDEY Senior Diplomat, Security General

BIMSTEC is poised to play an important role in enhancing regional cooperation in South Asia and Southeast Asia. Moreover, for the first time at the summit this year, BIMSTEC leaders will adopt a vision document. ”

Prosperity involves creating economic opportunities and improving living standards for all citizens. Sustainability ensures that development does not come at the expense of the environment or future generations. Inclusivity guarantees that the benefits of growth are shared equitably, addressing the needs of both remote communities and urban centres.

The path to growth and prosperity is dynamic. It requires a balanced approach considering all member states’ unique needs and contributions.

The journey towards a prosperous and sustainable future within the BIMSTEC region is about more than economic metrics. It is about creating a future where every citizen, from the remotest village to the bustling city, can achieve their dreams and contribute to the region’s collective success.

This vision of comprehensive and inclusive growth is essential for building a resilient and equitable society in today’s interconnected world.

MR. SUNIL K C

Founder - Asian Institute of Diplomacy and International Affairs (AIDIA), Think-Tank, Nepal.

BIMSTEC: AN ENGINE OF PROGRESS

Navigating regional crises and charting a path to integration.

This article is curated by Colonel Nalin Herath at the Synergia Bodh Gaya-Nalanda Conference.

It would be difficult to describe the state of world affairs today, with over 120 conflicts being waged all over the globe. Out of these, over 60 involve nonstate actors. South Asia is equally afflicted with this phenomenon and must try to overcome it collectively.

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

The lofty ambitions behind BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) aimed to bring about regional integration and economic growth. However, there have been major obstacles, especially after the pandemic when global growth dramatically slowed; as per IMF, in 2024, it will be just 3 per cent! Like all other areas of the globe, South Asia also suffers from serious economic affliction brought about by the pandemic and the changing nature of contemporary geopolitics.

It is for this reason that regional integration becomes important. BIMSTEC nations must coordinate, collaborate, and invest to strengthen the integration of their economies, mitigate shared risks, avoid conflicts, assist neighbours in fragile situations, and preserve common resources. ASEAN’s experience provides a broader perspective. ASEAN is a good example of how integration and common goals can work together. Multilateralism promotes mutual prosperity and peace.

Even though it’s a young organization, BIMSTEC, established in 1997, has significant potential. However,

BIMSTEC has been lackadaisical in helping its members when they have required it the most. Both Myanmar and Bangladesh have grave issues that they are currently dealing with, but India and Thailand share the blame with their neighbouring countries for their non-interventional stance. The ongoing economic hardships in Bangladesh and conflict in Myanmar call for immediate regional help and backing.

two members are in trouble right now: Myanmar and Bangladesh. Bangladesh needs help as it’s undergoing an economic crisis. Sri Lanka is just recovering from an economic crisis. Myanmar is in conflict involving a lot of non-state actors and the government.

A prime example of effective regional intervention was when India stepped in during the apex of Sri Lanka’s economic crisis in 2023. India helped stabilize the Sri Lankan economy by providing $3.9 billion in loans

and grants. Given the crisis, BIMSTEC needs to re-assess its approach to crisis management as Bangladesh is knocking at the IMF’s door to seek a $8 billion loan.

MAKING BIMSTEC WORK

As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi succinctly summarized during his visit to Ukraine, “This is not an era of wars.” We are in an era of integration, collaboration and pursuing peace and harmony. For BIMSTEC to flourish in the new era of modernity, funding the master plan is crucial. Such reforms must specifically focus on intermodal transportation issues, trade facilitation improvements, and key projects and implementations.

Moreover, the huge infrastructure investment gap needed to link South Asia and Southeast Asia physically continues to pose a formidable challenge. Overcoming these challenges will require mobilizing private financing through infrastructure bonds, public-private partnerships (PPPs), and intergovernmental cooperation.

According to Dr. Ananda Vignarajah, a renowned economist and advisor to the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), BIMSTEC is yet another failed regional organization similar to SAARC. As long as India and Pakistan aren’t on the same page, SAARC will remain ineffective. Dr. Vignaraja proposed one option: setting a one-year timeline.

Most trade pacts and trade negotiations take a long time. For example, the trade pact between Sri Lanka and Thailand took 15 years and is still not finalized. The first option is to set a timeline—maybe one year or two years—and finalize the pact. The second option is to declare a failure and start fresh free trade talks. We should approach free trade agreements (FTAs) geared for the 21st century with supply chains for like-minded countries within two years. Otherwise, we can negotiate with whomever is ready and willing to proceed.

One major area that needs to be addressed is digitalization. Digitalization continues to be a grave issue in the BIMSTEC region, especially in South Asia. While mobile phone penetration is quite high, some 100 million South Asian people do not use the internet, illustrating a critical digital divide. Unfortunately, the lack of internet access continues to hamper its value in digital trade and e-commerce. In the upcoming years, BIMS TEC should address this issue through using digitiza tion as an enabler for trade and economic expansion.

The region cannot develop without investing in 5G technology and essential digital infrastructure. Finally, since we are talking about the future, investment in dig

Shehan Semasinghe State Minister of Finance, Sri Lanka

As BIMSTEC, we should take the example of ASEAN because there is clear evidence of countries with similar economic and trading structure being able to expand trading relationships. It is significant. It would be good if BIMSTEC could also follow the same footpath, the reason being, in 2004, there had been a framework agreement for a FTA which was agreed upon by all the member states, but we have not made progress in operationalising this framework, whereas several countries within the BIMSTEC group have free trade agreements. For example, Sri Lanka recently signed an FDA agreement with Thailand, and we are negotiating with India. Likewise, we have to expand our presence”.

ital skills and building a cadre of artificial intelligence (AI) literate workforce is also essential to consider. With India and other BIMSTEC members leading the way, building tighter digital bonds and economic collaboration in the region can be an opportunity.

BIMSTEC has political support and has shown progress amid global uncertainty. However, there is a problem with BIMSTEC staffing. The BIMSTEC office in Dhaka has only 10 to 15 staff members.

However, ASEAN has 270 staff members who are fully dedicated to the betterment of the organization. Indian Prime Minister Modi plans to increase the number of BIMSTEC staff and give the organization momentum. If that plan works, it will benefit the organization significantly. BIMSTEC needs to retool itself to address today’s economic challenges.

CONCLUSION

To conclude, BIMSTEC remains a “work in progress”, and at this stage, it struggles notably with the crisis-ridden member states and its inability to respond effectively without adequate capacity. There is

COLONEL NALIN HERATH

Director General of the Institute of National Security Studies (INSS), Sri Lanka

TOWARDS GREEN FUTURES

Technologies combining economic growth and decarbonization will totally transform the future of all the world’s poor countries.

This article is curated by Prem Shankar Jha at the Synergia Bodh Gaya-Nalanda Conference.

Today, even a child knows that the world is getting warmer and that we now have no control over the process of global warming. The question staring at us is how to extract energy from fossil fuels without destroying our planet in the process.

In just the last 25 years, the Earth’s average temperature has gone up to 1.2 degrees Celsius higher than it was in 1900 AD. Now, oceans are also warming. And we have only realized one third of the warming potential of the carbon dioxide that fossil fuels have released into the atmosphere. Whatever happens, we will not be able to keep it below about 1.7 to 2 degrees Celsius before the end of this century.

At this moment, all the efforts that are being made, apart from being ineffective, are all concentrated in technologies that are available and doable only by the most advanced industrialized countries. The result is that while there is a perceptible slowing down of increase in the carbon emissions of the rich nations, and in fact, several have already reached a plateau, there is no slowing down of this kind possible in the developing countries. Clearly, there is a very sharp conflict between development and decarbonization.

Developing countries have limited amount of savings in the economy. Therefore, only limited capital can be used to move out of energy sources like coal and oil into new sources. Not surprisingly, two-thirds of the

addition of carbon dioxide into the air come from developing countries today.

AFFORDABLE ENERGY

Solar and wind energy have been extensively developed in research centers and pilot projects worldwide. But it’s only between 20 per cent and 30 per cent of the total energy consumption of any country in the world.

What do you do with the other 70 per cent? The most important part of that is heat. Intense, concentrated heat is required in four major industries-steel, cement, transport fuels, and fertilizers. Today, all the efforts in the West focus on converting electricity from the sun and the wind into intense heat. And the whole idea, therefore, is to produce green hydrogen.

Green hydrogen today costs $4.85 per kg to produce. Can we, in the developing countries, afford something to replace coal? How do we replace coal with something

that costs $4.85 at this moment and which, at the very best of estimates of increased efficiency, will still cost $1.60 in 2030? Every meeting of the Conference of Parties on the Kyoto Protocol turns into a fight. The developing countries say, you, the rich nations, have got the capital. You must transfer it to us. We cannot afford to compromise on our development.

This is a false conflict. The reality is that you can combine both growth and decarbonization. Because there is a third source, all energy is produced from just three elements- hydrogen, carbon, and oxygen.

Another source of energy is Biomass. Biomass is a combination of carbon, oxygen, and hydrogen. It takes two forms. The bulk of Biomass, about 40 per cent on average, is lignin, which is pure carbon.

The balance, 60 per cent, consists of two types of cellulose. One is hemicellulose, which is very complex and has elements of carbon in it, and pure cellulose, which is the last part, which is normally about one-fifth of the content of any biomass you have. So, if you ferment this, as in biogas plants, you can get the cellulose and much of the hemicellulose to break up, giving you methane.

But on the other hand, there is another technology that the West has studiously ignored because of the power of the fuel and transportation lobbies. This technology is biomass gasification, not fermentation, but gasification. Biomass gasification gives a fuel gas consisting of carbon monoxide and hydrogen, which you can use for generating electricity.

India has 1.4 billion tons of crop residues. The existing technologies can produce 1.5 billion tons of transport fuels out of 1.4 billion tons of Biomass. The greatest source of Biomass in India is rice straw. It has no other use as it has poor fodder quality, so people burn it or use it to thatch their huts. All the smog that engulfs the entire Northern India and Pakistan Punjab every winter is thanks to this burning of rice straw in paddy fields. The solution lies in setting up village level biomass gasifiers to process the waste straw. This will ensure guaranteed electricity for the village; we have 640,000 villages in India.

With guaranteed power, the rural economy will flourish. While we have a horticultural revolution in India, with 240 million tons of fruits and vegetables being produced, we don’t have a single village cold storage. The produce must be disposed of in the market at the earliest before it rots, at whatever price the market gives. That is the kind of stranglehold the market has on

the farmers, who remain poor. Self-controlled electricity ensures that the generated power takes over whenever the state power fails, and you can have inner cold storage. It allows every village to have cold storage and treble the income of the horticultural farmers.

The residue from biomass gasification, depending on the temperature, is between 20 per cent and 25 per cent in the form of biochar. Biochar is really a biological carbon. The biochar is, on an average, 90 per cent pure carbon, and it contains absolutely no sulphur. It is a perfect replacement for coking coal in steel plants, which is the single largest energy demand in the world today. It can also do that for cement plants.

But the most important thing about biochar is that it’s a source of transport fuels. During World War II, Nazi Germany did not possess any domestic oil wells. They made synthetic fuels from coal, of which Germany had plenty. The same technology can be used with biochar. In fact, biochar is a superior form of coal.

If the locus of future development can be moved from towns and cities to the countryside, the man-nature equilibrium will shift towards a stable state. With a minimum of 50 direct jobs per village, 11-month-a-year direct salary jobs in cold storages, in shredding and pelletizing plants, and in the biomass gasification plants per village, the rural employment problem will be largely taken care of.

Former editor of the Hindustan Times and media advisor to PM V.P. Singh. Currently visiting professor at Harvard University working on Climate change. PREM SHANKAR JHA

REGIONAL COOPERATION: PERSPECTIVE FROM MYANMAR

Myanmar, currently plagued by widespread conflict, urgently needs peace, which is the cornerstone of a stable and democratic society.

This article is curated by Mr Kyaw Lin Oo at the Synergia Bodh Gaya-Nalanda Conference.

India shares a significant land border of over 1,600 kilometres with Myanmar and has a maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal. The northeastern Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram all border Myanmar.

This geographical proximity is complemented by a rich heritage of religious, linguistic, and ethnic ties between the two nations. Myanmar is India’s sole ASEAN neighbour, making it a crucial gateway to Southeast Asia — a region India is keen to engage more deeply in through its ‘Look East’ and, subsequently, ‘Act East’ policies.

The ‘Act East’ Policy aims to enhance economic and cultural integration with Southeast Asia. However, the ongoing civil unrest has hampered progress in landbased trade, cultural, and people-to-people exchanges.

CHALLENGES AHEAD

Since the military coup in February 2021, Myanmar has plunged into chaos. The ceasefire process initiated under Aung San Suu Kyi’s government has collapsed, leading to increased violence and the formation of parallel administrations by various ethnic rebel groups.

This turmoil has further isolated Myanmar from the international community. In response to the escalating conflict and fragmentation within Myanmar, international calls for the country to return to a path of federal

By encouraging dialogue, supporting peace initiatives, and sharing its own experiences of maintaining unity amidst diversity, India can play a pivotal role in promoting a peaceful and democratic future for Myanmar.

democracy have intensified. As Myanmar grapples with internal strife, restoring peace and democratic governance remains a pressing concern, crucial not only for Myanmar’s stability but also for enhancing regional integration and cooperation with India. Promoting peace is essential because conflict must be transformed into peaceful solutions to meet the societal need for harmony.Moreover, Myanmar faces the challenge of transitioning from authoritarian rule to democracy. Democracy is critical for establishing lasting peace; without it, a nation cannot achieve stability. Peace, in turn, is critical for democratic governance and societal development.

Non-violence plays a crucial role in this transition. By adhering to non-violent methods, we can work towards transforming society and achieving democracy. Historical experience shows that resorting to violence often exacerbates authoritarian suppression, undermining efforts for peaceful change.

INDIA’S ROLE

India, as the largest federal democracy in the region, holds a unique position to leverage its democratic cre-

Anand Singh, Regional Director, EI Asia-Pacific Regional Office

The international community cannot stand by and watch the military junta continue to perpetuate serious human and labour rights violations. Over the past three years, countless lives and livelihoods have been lost. It is important for us to intensify our efforts in pressuring national governments and multinational companies to sever all ties that directly and indirectly benefit the junta and to show our solidarity with the people of Myanmar.”

dentials and influence Myanmar’s political landscape, especially during these turbulent times.

Myanmar’s pro-democracy elites and civil society have long regarded India as a model of a successful federal union, where a well-structured power-sharing arrangement between the central government and various subnational units ensures stability and inclusion.

India’s experience in balancing diverse ethnic, linguistic, and regional aspirations within a democratic framework is something that Myanmar could look toward as it seeks to overcome internal strife and fragmentation.

India’s democratic principles—rooted in non-violence, peace, and dialogue—can serve as valuable guiding forces for Myanmar, where conflict and authoritarianism have overshadowed democratic aspirations.

The spirit of non-violence, embodied by leaders like Mahatma Gandhi, has been central to India’s freedom struggle and subsequent nation-building efforts. This philosophy and India’s commitment to peaceful transitions of power and the rule of law could offer critical lessons for Myanmar.

A peaceful and democratic Myanmar can contribute to regional security, economic development, and closer integration with its neighbours, particularly under India’s ‘Act East’ policy.

India, with its deep cultural ties and shared heritage with Myanmar, can act as both a partner and a mentor, helping Myanmar transition from authoritarian rule to a peaceful federal democracy that respects the aspira-

tions of its diverse ethnic groups. By encouraging dialogue, supporting peace initiatives, and sharing its own experiences of maintaining unity amidst diversity, India can play a pivotal role in promoting a peaceful and democratic future for Myanmar.

True democracy requires more than elections; it demands a free press, tolerance among diverse political ideologies, and effective checks and balances.”

~Mr Kyaw Lin Oo

TRANSITIONING TO DEMOCRACY

Civil mobilisation is also vital in this process. Organising non-violent political actions, such as strikes, protests, and demonstrations, helps push for political change.

However, Myanmar has faced significant suppression from authorities, often leading to a shift from non-violent to violent means of resistance. The prevalence of conflict and internal strife demonstrates the complexity of transitioning from authoritarianism to democracy. Despite initial democratic progress from 2011 to 2020, the resurgence of military rule underscores the difficulties of maintaining a democratic system.

True democracy requires more than elections; it demands a free press, tolerance among diverse political ideologies, and effective checks and balances. The recent period of so-called democracy in Myanmar, marked by political suppression and limited tolerance for dissent, highlights the gap between democratic ideals and reality.

The continued struggle for democracy in Myanmar illustrates that achieving a peaceful and democratic society is an ongoing challenge that requires persistent, non-violent efforts.

The path to peace lies in steadfast non-violence and civil mobilisation, with the ultimate goal of restoring and sustaining democratic values in the face of ongoing conflict.

MR KYAW LIN OO

Program Director Center For Peace And Reconciliation, Myanmar

GEOPOLITICS & SOUTH ASIA

The geopolitical environment has been shaping the geostrategic surroundings in South Asia.

This article is curated by Maj Gen Binod Basnyat at the Synergia Bodh Gaya-Nalanda Conference.

Peace, nonviolence, and democracy often gain traction during periods of unrest or transition. Modern challenges such as geopolitical tensions, human rights abuses, and social inequalities provide a critical backdrop for promoting these values.

POWER GAMES IN SOUTH ASIA

The triangular power projections in South Asia have been very prominent. The geopolitical environment has been shaping the geostrategic surroundings in South Asia. The United States, which started pivoting to the Asia Pacific in 2011, renamed the Asia Pacific into the Indo-Pacific region in 2013. It reflects the challenges and changes in economic security behaviour and diplomatic institutions. The 2022 U.S. National Security Strategy states that China is the only competitor intending to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do it. Initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (2013) and the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (2016) have expanded China’s global reach, particularly in developing nations, strengthening its influence in the Global South. By promoting infrastructure development and investment in these regions, China aims to create a multipolar world, challenging the dominance of Western-led institutions.

India entered the global political realm in 2014 with the Modi One, also known as the Modi Doctrine, which has three pillars. First, improving relationships with

As South Asia navigates these challenges, the urgency for a comprehensive and unified strategy becomes ever more critical—one that transcends national rivalries and fosters collaboration to tackle shared concerns such as poverty, security, climate change, and economic disparity.

immediate neighbours would be a priority, as would peace and tranquillity in South Asia. Second, para-diplomacy would be introduced, allowing each state and city to forge special relationships with countries. The third is bilateral trade, which emphasises the world’s powers, particularly the P5s.

GEOPOLITICAL DISRUPTIONS AND SOUTH ASIA

The last three years have been very fluid. In three years, there have been three theatres. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Israel-Gaza crisis in 2023, and the Red Sea crisis beginning in October 2023 have all significantly disrupted global trade and supply chains, with strategic implications across key regions. The Belt and Road Initiative also plays an important part in shaping the geostrategic environment of South Asia. Meanwhile, geopolitical dynamics in South Asia are evolving rapidly. With six of the nine nations bordering China—three landlocked and three with strategic coastlines—South Asia finds itself at the crossroads of major global shifts. Myanmar is pivotal in expanding

the regional outlook, contributing to the geopolitical complexity. Between 2021 and 2024, South Asia faced profound political, economic, and social disturbances driven by internal conflicts, external pressures from China’s influence, and regional security needs. As global crises unfold, the Indo-Pacific region and South Asia emerge as critical arenas of geopolitical competition and economic realignments.

Nine countries experienced six major strategic occurrences. The United States and its allies left Afghanistan, leaving it to the Taliban. In February 2021, the Myanmar military overthrew the democratically elected government. In May 2022, Sri Lanka had an economic crisis followed by political and social instability. Pakistan’s political unrest led to the economic crisis in March 2022, the Maldives, and the April 23 elections, and the proceeding process led to “India being out.” Despite this, India is prepared to offer the Maldives emergency financial support to address its financial challenges. Thus, we can see the trends and risks of Maldives falling into another economic trap. Bangladesh’s political upheavals in August 2024 have both domestic and geopolitical connotations.

These six happenings have occurred within varied strategic environments-electoral system (Maldives, Pakistan, Bangladesh), economic system (Sri Lanka, Maldives and Pakistan), and a military system (Afghanistan and Myanmar). We see four types of political system in South Asia-constitutional monarchy, which goes hand in hand with democracy in Bhutan, rigid fundamental rule in Afghanistan, a military junta in Myanmar and a presidential system in Maldives. The rest have parliamentary democracy systems.

Great powers influence national politics. Political parties, in turn, adopt these external influences, taking up ideological policies that reflect the agendas of the powers with which they are aligned. Conflicts arise in this environment, shifting from conventional military confrontations to hybrid forms, including cyber warfare, disinformation campaigns, and economic coercion, as great powers seek to achieve their goals indirectly. Polarisation, faith, belief, democratic values, and radicalisation are occurring rapidly, and South Asia cannot be an exception. This is linked to the risks compelling countries to take sides. There are two global visions that nations must choose from. One is to bring back a better world led by the United States. The other is the global, shared future led by China.

CLIMATE CHANGE

Let us not ignore that South Asia would be one of the regions worst impacted by Climate Change. Cli-

mate change exacerbates the scarcity of essential natural resources like water, arable land, and energy. As temperatures rise, droughts intensify, and crop yields become unpredictable, competition for these dwindling resources can lead to conflict, particularly in volatile regions. This scarcity could trigger “resource wars,” where nations or groups vie for control over limited freshwater supplies, food, or energy, potentially destabilising entire regions.

THE INDIA-NEPAL DYNAMICS

Nepal and India relationship holds significant importance in the broader context of South Asia due to historical, cultural, and geopolitical linkages. As India is Nepal’s largest trade partner and a key regional power, its influence extends beyond bilateral ties, impacting regional dynamics with countries like Bhutan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.

Additionally, Nepal’s strategic location between China and India positions it as a critical player in the broader geopolitical competition between these two giants, with ripple effects on other South Asian nations, shaping political alignments, economic cooperation, and regional security concerns. The interplay of great power politics in the region further accentuates Nepal’s role in the larger South Asian framework, influencing the region’s political economy.

The societal skirmishes and enduring instability in South Asia, driven by deep-rooted political, ethnic, and economic tensions, continue to undermine regional cohesion and progress. These multifaceted conflicts, ranging from cross-border disputes to internal unrest, exacerbate divisions, destabilising the entire region and hindering collective development. As South Asia navigates these challenges, the urgency for a comprehensive and unified strategy becomes ever more critical—one that transcends national rivalries and fosters collaboration to tackle shared concerns such as poverty, security, climate change, and economic disparity. The region can hope to achieve sustainable peace and stability through coordinated efforts.

Two essential pillars for this strategy emerge: the unity of minds, which emphasises collective understanding and cooperation among diverse stakeholders, and the unity of vision, which calls for a common longterm goal of peace, stability, and prosperity across the region. These principles offer a path forward in a fragmented geopo litical landscape. They also play a role in accommodating com monalities rather than bringing out differences.

MAJ GEN BINOD BASNYAT

Strategic Analyst | Geopolitics | Sword of Honour | Graduate: Sandhurst (UK), CGSC (USA), NDC (India)

EXPLORING NEW VISTAS

Though complex and informal, India and Taiwan’s relationship has steadily evolved.

This article is curated by Mr. Chung chai Chang at the Synergia Bodh Gaya-Nalanda Conference.

Though informal and under the radar, India and Taiwan’s strategic relationship has been evolving in response to shifting geopolitical dynamics, particularly concerning China’s rise.

India and Taiwan do not have official diplomatic relations due to India’s adherence to the “One China” policy, which recognises the People’s Republic of China as the sole representative of China.

Despite this, the two countries have found common ground in their economic interests, shared democratic values, and concerns over China’s assertive policies. With China being a strategic challenge for both nations, India and Taiwan have cautiously explored areas of cooperation, especially in the domains of trade, technology, and education- a marriage of convenience in the economic and trade sense.

Beyond the economic and technological domains, the common goals for India and Taiwan revolve around freedom, prosperity, and security.

While strategic cooperation may not take the form of formal alliances, the alignment between Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy (initiated by ex-President Tsai Ing-wen in 2016) and India’s policies offers a strong foundation for future collaboration. Both nations have pursued these policies for seven to eight years, and there is significant scope for strengthening partnerships across various sectors.

Indian External Affairs Minister, Mr Jaishankar, has highlighted the significance of semiconductors and mobility as areas where both nations can collaborate. Taiwan’s expertise in semiconductor manufacturing and India’s emerging technological base present significant opportunities for joint ventures and knowledge exchange.

A NEW ERA

Though complex, India and Taiwan’s relationship has steadily evolved from formal diplomatic ties with the Republic of China (ROC) from 1947 to 1950 into a growing, unofficial partnership.

The period following India’s recognition of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1950 saw a halt in formal relations, but both sides kept the door open for future cooperation. This pragmatic approach led to the establishment of representative offices in the 1990s, signalling the start of a new phase of bilateral engagement.

In 1995 Taiwan established the Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre (TECC) in New Delhi, functioning as a de facto embassy. Simultaneously, the India-Taipei Association (ITA) was set up in Taipei to facilitate diplomatic, trade, and cultural exchanges. These unofficial means of diplomacy have been the backbone of Taiwan’s and India’s successful strategic dialogues in

various fields. Taiwan’s footprint in India has gradually grown, supporting Indian technology, education and trade. In 2012, Taiwan strengthened its presence in India by opening an office in Chennai to deepen ties with southern India. Last year, Taiwan further solidified its engagement with India by inaugurating a new office in Mumbai, the country’s commercial capital.

To further enhance the India-Taiwan relationship, updated statistics reflect the increasing people-to-people exchange between the two nations. Approximately 40,000 Indians travel to Taiwan annually for tourism, education, business, and work, highlighting the growing interest in Taiwan’s opportunities. Around 400 to 500 Taiwanese citizens reside in India and work in various sectors, including business, manufacturing, and education.

These people-to-people exchanges are pivotal in building a solid foundation for future cooperation, expanding business opportunities, and creating stronger cultural connections.

This movement of individuals also reflects the deepening trust and confidence between India and Taiwan, paving the way for more substantial partnerships. Around 6,000 Indian citizens live in Taiwan, contributing to the two nations’ economic, educational, and cultural exchange.

Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy has played a significant role in attracting talent from India, with around 1.5 per cent of Indian students who graduate from Taiwan staying on as skilled workers, a figure that, while still modest, exceeds 100 individuals. Moreover, about 3,000 Indian students are pursuing higher education in Taiwan, drawn by the country’s robust academic and research programs.

India is currently ranked as Taiwan’s 16th largest trade partner, the 12th largest export market, and the 25th largest import market. These figures underscore the expanding economic ties, with significant potential for future growth.

Looking forward, Taiwan plans to focus on trade in plastics, rubbers, and the ICT sector, which is becoming a key area of interest. Major imports from India include raw materials essential to Taiwan’s industrial base.

In a significant regulatory development last month, the Indian government passed a regulation allowing Indian organic agricultural products to be imported into Taiwan, opening new avenues for agricultural trade.

Kristy Tsun-Tzu Hsu, Director of Taiwan ASEAN Studies

Center

Chung-Hua Institution of Economic Research

There is a broad scope that Taiwana and India can work on at this very juncture, not only in terms of building up their industry and strengthening their market but also in terms of jointly cultivating talents for the future, including R&D efforts along with people-to-people exchange. We understand that semiconductor is an important base for India and other developing countries. From Taiwan’s perspective, we are very happy to see a Taiwanese company going to India to set up operations jointly with the TATA Company. By jointly cultivating talents, India and Taiwan can benefit along with the Global Markets”.

PATH TO MUTUAL GROWTH

Around 40 years ago, Taiwan’s economic ministries invited TSMC to invest. Over the next four decades, Taiwan developed its world-class chip manufacturing capabilities, making it a global semiconductor leader. A key factor in this success has been the focus on talent.

Continuous investment in skilled workers and longterm industry development has been essential. Taiwan’s approach is comprehensive, offering a “one-package solution,” which includes chip technology and well-established upstream and downstream factories that support the entire production ecosystem. This holistic approach allows for seamless integration and innovation within the semiconductor industry.

The message is that building an industry of this magnitude doesn’t happen overnight. With the right investment in talent, infrastructure, and a long-term strategy, it can transform a nation’s eco nomic landscape, just as Taiwan’s semiconductor in dustry has done.

MR. CHUNG CHAI CHANG

Counselor, Taipei Economic and Cultural Center in India

TSMC is not directly operational in India, but Taiwan’s advanced technology sector has made significant strides in engaging with India. TSMC has managers working in India, but the challenge lies in finding and empowering local Indian managers to lead operations, which is crucial for businesses looking to establish a more permanent presence.

Liu Yangwei, Foxconn’s chairman, is highly active in India, driving various initiatives to strengthen the company’s foothold in the market. Foxconn has made considerable progress in contributing to India’s manufacturing sector, and the chairman’s efforts have had a visible impact. By focusing on these strategic areas and addressing the challenges in leadership localisation, Taiwan can continue to build its presence in India, leveraging its expertise in advanced technology and forging stronger economic ties.

Taiwan currently hosts a large number of foreign workers, including 30 million Indonesian labourers. Looking ahead, Taiwan plans to welcome 10,000 Indian workers, though this will require navigating certain bureaucratic and regulatory challenges. One of the most challenging areas of collaboration is the cultural domain, primarily due to language barriers. Taiwan offers language scholarships, which can help bridge the cultural gap. Expanding this program to more universities will encourage greater participation. Food culture differences, for example, reflect broader cultural challenges. While Taiwanese people tend to adapt to diverse cuisines, Indians in Taiwan often avoid local restaurants.

Both India and Taiwan share values of faith, compassion, and charity, with religious organisations like Tzu Chi and Foguang Mountain playing a vital role in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR).

These organisations, known for mobilising quickly during disasters, provide a strong foundation for deeper religious and charitable cooperation between the two nations.

FROM EDUCATION TO SUPPLY CHAINS

Currently, individuals from India go to Taiwan for educational exchanges. However, group programs, like the one organised by TATA Corporation in partnership with PSMC, offer a model for engineering and technical training. With India’s first FAB factory set to open in Gujarat by 2026, this collaborative approach can help develop critical talent. Fostering group exchanges across industries and sectors is key to long-term success.

The most pressing issue is the economic domain, especially the supply chain. Taiwan’s security is closely tied to India’s national interests, as the stability of the South China Sea affects major trading routes across Vietnam, the Philippines, and even Singapore. Ensuring the resilience of Taiwan’s supply chain has a cascading effect on regional stability, linking economic security to broader geopolitical concerns.

Synergia Takeaways

Economic and Technological Potential: The economic relationship between India and Taiwan holds immense potential, particularly in high-tech industries such as semiconductors and electronics.

Subtle Geopolitical Realignment: While neither country openly opposes China, their increasing cooperation can be considered part of a broader strategy to balance China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.

Caution in Strategic Engagement: India maintains a cautious approach to deepening its ties with Taiwan, mindful of the broader geopolitical implications, particularly its relations with China.

POPULARISING SCIENCE

BRICS nations can cultivate a generation of scientific innovators capable of driving forward the development of innovations at par with the advanced nations.

This article expounds the views of the Synergia Foundation expressed at the BRICS International Municipal Forum, organised by the Government of Moscow in Moscow from 27th to 28th August 2024.

Science and technology play a critical role in advancing societies, especially in megacities where infrastructure challenges can be met through innovative, scientific solutions. By popularising science, we can foster a generation of thinkers, problem solvers, and innovators who will push scientific achievements forward and help commercialise developments to address urban challenges.

TAKING SCIENCE TO THE MASSES

Popularising science is essential for developing the next generation of scientists, engineers, and researchers who can drive societal progress. A well-informed public that values scientific principles is more likely to support science-driven policies and commercial ventures to improve municipal infrastructure. However, the key to fostering this interest lies in making science relatable and understandable. While important, traditional science teaching methods are often not enough to spark widespread interest. Therefore, a shift towards interactive, hands-on experiences that integrate technology and real-world applications is necessary.

In megacities, where infrastructure and urban planning issues are often complex, popularising science can help inspire young minds to engage in solving these real-life challenges. A scientific temper is critical for sus-

tainable urban living, from traffic management to energy efficiency and waste disposal. Building a scientific culture through education, community engagement, and interactive technologies can nurture the innovative thinking necessary to drive scientific achievements.

Today’s younger generation is constantly hooked online. Therefore, it makes sense to engage young minds in science through digital platforms, making learning interactive and immersive. Digital technologies such as interactive mobile apps, augmented reality (AR), and virtual reality (VR) offer new ways to present scientific information engagingly. These tools allow users to visualise complex scientific concepts and phenomena in 3D or augmented forms, making abstract ideas tangible and easier to understand. For example, an AR app that shows the internal structure of buildings or a VR tour of a scientific facility such as CERN can make science both accessible and exciting. These technologies allow students and enthusiasts to experience science firsthand, from understanding how a city’s

water filtration system works to visualising the intricate workings of a nuclear reactor. Digital tools provide a sense of adventure and discovery, which can motivate young minds to explore scientific disciplines in greater depth. Moreover, the gamification of scientific learning, through platforms that turn the learning process into a game, can make the experience more engaging. With points, levels, and rewards for mastering scientific concepts, students are motivated to compete, collaborate, and continuously improve their knowledge in a fun and immersive environment.

WHY YOUTHS ARE SHYING AWAY FROM SCIENCE

Many young people perceive science as inherently difficult or complex, leading to a lack of confidence in their ability to understand or excel in scientific disciplines. Traditional science education often fails to connect scientific concepts with everyday experiences or potential career paths, making it seem abstract and irrelevant to many students. Persistent stereotypes about who can be a scientist may discourage young people from underrepresented groups from pursuing scientific interests. In an era of instant gratification and engaging digital content, traditional science communication methods may struggle to capture and maintain young people’s attention.

Many educational institutions lack modern laboratory equipment, up-to-date textbooks, or qualified teachers, hindering effective science education. Some educational systems prioritise rote learning of scientific facts rather than fostering curiosity and problem-solving skills, making science seem boring.

The scientific process inherently involves trial and error, but many young people are discouraged by the prospect of failure, especially in high-stakes academic environments. Many students are unaware of the diverse career opportunities in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields, limiting their motivation to pursue these subjects. The fast-evolving nature of scientific knowledge can make it challenging for educators and communicators to stay current and

convey the latest developments effectively. Technical, scientific language can be intimidating and off-putting for young people, particularly those from non-English speaking backgrounds or disadvantaged socioeconomic groups. Science is often taught in isolation from other subjects, missing opportunities to connect it with art, literature, or social sciences, which could make it more appealing to a broader range of students.

In some countries, students are required to specialise early, potentially closing off scientific paths before they can fully explore their interests. Addressing these challenges requires a multi-faceted approach involving educators, policymakers, scientists, and the media.

INNOVATIVE MEASURES TO MAKE SCIENCE ATTRACTIVE

Engaging young people in science requires a blend of educational innovation, real-world exposure, and mentorship. Mentorship Programs such as pairing young students with established scientists and researchers provide them with guidance, inspiration, and insight into scientific careers. Mentorship programs allow students to see the real-world applications of scientific work and to build relationships with professionals who can nurture their passion for science.

Hands-on Maker Spaces and DIY Science Kits include creating spaces where young people can engage in hands-on scientific activities, such as building models, conducting experiments, or working on engineering projects, which fosters creativity and critical thinking. Maker spaces equipped with scientific tools and materials allow students to explore science practically and interactively. Similarly, take-home DIY science kits encourage experimentation outside the classroom, promoting lifelong learning.

Cross-Cultural Science Exchange Programs and exposure to diverse perspectives and scientific methodologies can broaden students’ understanding of science. International exchange programs focusing on collaborative research projects or joint scientific initiatives help build a global scientific community. These pro-

grams are particularly important in addressing urban challenges faced by megacities, as they promote the exchange of knowledge and innovative solutions. Popularising science requires a mix of creativity, collaboration, and leveraging modern media platforms. Several methods can be used to attract more people to science, including:

• Citizen Science Projects: These platforms encourage public participation in real scientific research. Projects like air quality monitoring in urban spaces or biodiversity tracking can involve citizens in data collection, analysis, and even hypothesis development. By empowering individuals to contribute to real-world scientific studies, the public becomes invested in the process and outcome of scientific endeavours.

• Science-Themed Escape Rooms and Adventure Games: These immersive experiences challenge participants to solve scientific puzzles to progress through the game. Escape rooms, whether physical or virtual, can be themed around scientific disciplines such as biology, physics, or environmental science, encouraging participants to apply scientific knowledge in creative and challenging scenarios. These interactive experiences make learning science fun, memorable, and highly engaging.

• Partnerships with Social Media Influencers: Leveraging the power of social media platforms and influencers can help bring science to new, broader audiences. Popular figures who can explain science in fun and relatable ways have the ability to inspire their followers to take an interest in the subject. Social media is an ideal platform for science challenges, experiments, and discussions that can reach millions of viewers.

• Pop-up Science Exhibits in Public Spaces: Setting up science exhibits in high-traffic areas like parks or shopping malls allows science to meet people where they are. Interactive displays, demonstrations, and engaging visuals can spark curiosity in passersby, particularly those who might not seek scientific content independently.

BEST CASES FROM AROUND THE WORLD

Around the world, countries have made significant efforts to popularise science, some of which have direct implications for megacities and urban infrastructure.

• India’s Vigyan Prasar is a government initiative that aims to popularise science among the masses, particularly the youth, through a combination of publications, science films, and digital media. The initiative organises workshops, exhibitions, and interactive sessions that explain scientific concepts in simple and engaging ways. The National Science Day in India, celebrated yearly, also serves as a platform for public engagement in scientific discussions.

• UK’s Science Museum in London is a world-renowned centre for science engagement. It uses exhibits, hands-on workshops, and interactive displays to educate the public on various scientific topics, from space

exploration to climate change. The museum’s use of VR and AR technology to explain complex scientific phenomena particularly draws young audiences.

• United States Citizen Science Projects like SciStarter connect everyday people with scientific research projects. Citizen scientists can participate in a wide variety of projects, including monitoring water quality in cities and tracking light pollution. This not only helps scientists gather crucial data but also engages the public in scientific work that directly impacts urban living.

• Brazil’s Science Without Borders program is an exchange initiative that sends Brazilian students abroad for training in STEM disciplines. By exposing students to international scientific research and development standards, the program aims to build a knowledge economy that can support infrastructural advancements in Brazilian megacities.

• Japan’s Miraikan (National Museum of Emerging Science and Innovation) in Tokyo offers hands-on exhibits and cutting-edge demonstrations of scientific concepts.

Synergia Takeaways

Digital Integration in Science Education: Incorporating AR, VR, and gamification into educational curriculums can make science more appealing and accessible to students in BRICS countries. These technologies allow students to explore complex concepts in engaging, immersive environments, fostering a deeper interest in scientific fields.

Citizen Science Initiatives: Encouraging public participation in scientific research through citizen science projects can help bridge the gap between professional scientists and the general public. This approach can increase awareness of how science is applied to real-world problems, especially in urban settings.

International Science Exchange Programs: Facilitating science exchange programs between BRICS countries can lead to cross-border collaborations that foster innovation. These programs should address shared urban challenges like pollution, waste management, and sustainable infrastructure, providing young scientists with the tools they need to effect change.

DEFENCE DIPLOMACY IN THE REGIONAL CONTEXT

Aside from its traditional applications, military power can also be channelled positively for a wide range of diplomatic and cooperation efforts.

This article is curated by Lt Gen P S Minhas, AVSM , Commandant OTA, Gaya.

Defence diplomacy has become an increasingly popular tool for nations to advance their national interests and foster international cooperation. Since there is no universally agreed-upon definition for the term “defence diplomacy”, there is room for countries to tailor its meaning to suit their specific security policies. As an instrument for defence cooperation, it plays a crucial role in a nation’s broader diplomatic efforts to secure its interests and promote regional and global peace and stability.

MULTIFACETED TOOL FOR COOPERATION

Nations wield various instruments of power, with military power being just one of them. While it may be a small component within the broader scope of national power, it plays a significant role. It’s important to understand that military power, aside from its traditional applications, can also be channelled positively for a wide range of diplomatic and cooperation efforts.

Through cooperative engagements like military-to-military (M-to-M) interactions, defence personnel participate in a wide spectrum of activities.

These range from individual nation-to-nation and region-to-region interactions to institutional forum engagements. At the higher end of this spectrum is defence diplomacy, conducted at the apex level, involv-

So, what does defence cooperation mean today? It means building bridges of friendship, constructing culverts of cooperation, and establishing pontoons across the waters of misunderstanding. It’s about mutual capacity-building, enhancing confidence, and strengthening ties.

ing a whole-of-government approach to foster strategic cooperation. At the individual service level – be it the army, navy, air force, or others – these engagements occur through various means: institutional forums, apex-level meetings, function-level discussions, subject matter expert exchanges, joint exercises, seminars, and capacity-building initiatives.

In India’s case, defence diplomacy encompasses a diverse set of activities, including defence dialogues, military exchanges, training, capacity building, information sharing, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR), peacekeeping, staff-level talks, and defence-industrial cooperation. We must recognise India’s growing role as a security provider, especially in South Asia, and its evolving contributions to regional security and stability.

CONTEMPORARY LANDSCAPE

So, what does defence cooperation mean today? It means building bridges of friendship, constructing cul-

verts of cooperation, and establishing pontoons across the waters of misunderstanding. It’s about mutual capacity-building, enhancing confidence, and strengthening ties.

When people from different nations meet regularly, discuss, and engage with each other, their perceptions evolve. Relationships deepen, and with recurring engagements, trust and understanding grow. Defence diplomacy and cooperation can cement ties between nations and foster a more stable, united future.

When suitably orchestrated, defence cooperation must be integrated at every level – even in small, incremental steps that can be gradually implemented. In the past, the world adopted a militaristic approach driven by insecurity. The new approach, however, is security-driven and motivated by cooperation. This is the current buzzword and reflects the global and regional orientation.

Beyond defence cooperation engagements, we also have international obligations such as humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, peacekeeping operations, safeguarding sea lanes of communication, and ensuring maritime security. Whether it’s dealing with natural disasters like cyclones, earthquakes, or pandemics such as COVID-19, these contingencies will arise repeatedly. Engaging with one another builds trust and confidence to handle such challenges and hone interoperability.

NEXT STEPS

Much has been said about the 21st century being the “Asian Century.” Poverty alleviation is crucial in this context. While many talk about preventing conflicts, achieving, maintaining, sustaining, and retaining peace

LT

We must focus our efforts on achieving and sustaining peace rather than solely avoiding conflicts. This larger, collaborative effort requires nations to engage in dialogue, learn from one another, and adapt to new challenges.”

~Lt

Gen P S Minhas, AVSM

is equally important. This proactive and positive orientation is more vital than merely focusing on conflict prevention.

While we all strive for non-violence, there are different ways to achieve it. Some believe that maintaining the capability to wield force when necessary – and for just causes – ensures non-violence. While every nation has instruments of power, we must focus our efforts on achieving and sustaining peace rather than solely avoiding conflicts. This larger, collaborative effort requires nations to engage in dialogue, learn from one another, and adapt to new challenges. Once we’ve laid out the roadmap, the real work begins the next day. The tough job is implementing what we’ve discussed and turning plans into tangible actions.

In conclusion, our region and the world stand at a pivotal moment. We can create a secure, stable, and united future by focusing on de fence cooperation, build ing bridges of trust, and striving for peace. Let us work together – lis ten, learn, and adapt –to achieve the shared vision of a peaceful and prosperous tomor row.

GEN P S MINHAS, AVSM

Commandant OTA, Gaya

ANOTHER KIND OF LOCKDOWN?

Social media’s evolution introduces new complexities for both platform operators and users.

Suchitra Padmanabhan is the Policy Research Associate at Synergia Foundation and has a Post Graduate Degree in Social Policy & Planning from the London School of Economics.

It requires a special kind of courage to challenge Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and owner of X, a social media platform often serving as his personal outlet. Alexandre de Moraes, the judge who ordered X to be blocked in Brazil on August 30th, definitely possesses this. His bold action has stirred up a veritable hornet’s nest with Musk going so far as calling him ‘Darth Vader’ and sharing an AI-generated image of the judge behind bars.

SOCIAL MEDIA UNDER ATTACK

As Facebook celebrates its 20th anniversary, social media platforms undergo significant transformations. Despite ongoing controversies, Facebook remains highly profitable, with its parent company, Meta, valued at $1.2 trillion.

However, social media is shifting away from personal interactions toward content consumption driven by algorithms, resembling a form of hyperactive television.

Social media, which occupies nearly half of mobile screen time, is becoming less focused on social connections. Inspired by TikTok, platforms now prioritize videos selected by algorithms based on user behaviour rather than posts from friends. Public discourse increasingly moves to closed platforms like WhatsApp and Telegram, where content is largely unmoderated.

Disputes over free speech have existed since the advent of print. The principle remains: societies only progress toward truth when individuals can express themselves, even if they are wrong. What is new, however, is that today, the most vocal defenders of free expression are right-wing figures like Elon Musk, while many self-identified liberals celebrate these restrictions as victories against figures like Musk. As free speech became part of the culture war, those who opposed the politics of Musk and his allies grew complacent.

While this transition reduces sensationalism in smaller, private groups and may benefit users’ mental health, it presents challenges. Open networks, which once facilitated public debate, are losing relevance as users post less frequently. Algorithms now promote content that garners the most engagement, often rewarding provocative material. Additionally, there is a decline in news consumption, with entertainment dominating user feeds, raising concerns about the public’s access to information.

Although some argue that governance improvements or changes in platform design could address these issues, these challenges are deeply rooted in the nature of human communication. As platforms shift to-

wards private groups, oversight diminishes, while open networks expose users to more extreme content. Furthermore, as users prioritize entertainment, the availability of news continues to decline.

BRAZILIAN EPISODE

The ban on X reflects Brazil’s stringent speech laws but also fits Justice Moraes’ pattern of making controversial decisions. In polarized Brazil, liberals once hailed him for standing up to former president Jair Bolsonaro, but now some fear he is overstepping his judicial powers. Moraes, a former prosecutor known for his aggressive pursuit of high-profile cases, was appointed to the Supreme Court in 2017 by conservative President Michel Temer, not by a liberal figure. He had previously dealt with a hacker attempting to extort Temer’s wife.

The block on X is Moraes’ most high-profile move, coming after Musk refused to comply with orders to remove certain accounts as part of an investigation into misinformation. Instead, Musk closed X’s local office, rendering the platform inoperable without a legal representative in Brazil, a rare stance for a reputable company.

Moraes’ reaction seems disproportionate. He threatened fines for users accessing X through virtual private networks (VPNs) and froze Starlink’s Brazilian bank accounts, supposedly to collect fines owed by X.

This severe approach is partly driven by Brazil’s interventionist speech laws, which now police “crimes against democracy” and “crimes against honour,” even in private messages. A panel of five judges recently upheld Moraes’ rulings with minor modifications.

Moraes’ most notable confrontation was with Bolsonaro, whom he opposed during the pandemic and subsequent elections when Bolsonaro spread lies about voting fraud. In 2023, an electoral tribunal led by Moraes barred Bolsonaro from running for office for eight years.

Some of Moraes’ actions have drawn criticism for being authoritarian. He initiated a contentious investigation into misinformation targeting the Supreme Court and expanded it into “digital militias.” In 2019, he controversially ordered an article taken down, reversing the decision only after public backlash. More recently, he ordered raids and account freezes over loose private discussions in WhatsApp groups.

Moraes’ bravery in the face of threats is unquestionable, but his crusade may be losing public support. By May 2023, approval ratings for the Supreme Court had dropped significantly, with criticism growing. His order to remove X from app stores was quickly reversed after public outcry, signalling rising resistance.

Some legal experts have called Moraes’ decisions extreme, such as freezing Starlink’s assets, which affects many in remote areas. His actions may inadvertently galvanize the very elements he seeks to suppress.

THE CASE OF COMMUNIST CHINA

In China, most citizens rely on social media platforms for news, and the Communist Party closely monitors this trend. Platforms like Douyin (the domestic version of TikTok), Weibo, and WeChat have replaced banned American sites such as Facebook, X, and YouTube. According to a 2022 survey, 46 per cent of Chinese obtain their news from short-video apps like Douyin, while a significant portion turn to platforms like Weibo and WeChat, which has over 1.3 billion users.

This growing dependence on social media for information presents a complex scenario for the Communist Party. Although the party has long exercised stringent control over information, it has also leveraged these platforms to disseminate its messages. Content deemed subversive is regularly scrubbed, yet officials in Beijing remain as concerned about the influence of social media as their counterparts in Washington.

Initially, social media platforms in China were viewed primarily as engines of economic growth, and their founders were celebrated as entrepreneurial pioneers. However, as these platforms grew in influence, they came under closer scrutiny. In 2020, Chinese regulators intensified oversight, asserting that tech companies had strayed from “socialist core values.” Party involvement in the industry has deepened, with state investors acquiring stakes in key subsidiaries of companies like ByteDance, Tencent, and Sina, enabling the government to appoint board members and influence decisions.

While the Biden administration in the United States focuses on tackling misinformation, China’s ruling party seeks to eliminate any content that contradicts its official narrative. The Chinese government spends an estimated $6.6 billion annually on online censorship. In one instance last year, authorities reported deleting 1.4 million social media posts and 67,000 accounts in just two months.

FOREIGN INTERFERENCE

While Western democracies are the most vocal about ‘foreign interference’ through social media, it is much less known that authoritarian states are equally under attack of influence operations.

Take the case of China. “All sides strive to spread and amplify their own propaganda while denouncing and suppressing the opposition’s by manipulating social media platforms,” noted a researcher at China’s Academy of Military Science in 2022. These concerns were likely intensified when Reuters recently reported that the CIA had launched a covert operation in 2019 to influence public opinion in China through social media, although its impact appears to have been minimal.

The Chinese government is now doubling down on its control, scrutinizing the algorithms that determine what users see online. Since 2022, companies must register their algorithms with regulators and explain their logic. These algorithms often promote content favourable to the government, with trending topics on platforms like Weibo typically featuring news about President Xi Jinping. A 2020 study by Stanford University found that 57 per cent of trending videos on Douyin were created by government or party-affiliated organizations.

However, algorithms can behave unpredictably, sometimes in ways even their creators cannot fully explain. This unpredictability is unwelcome to the Chinese Communist Party, which prefers greater control over information flow. While the party has largely co-opted social media for its own ends, it likely longs for the era when news was exclusively delivered through state-controlled television and newspapers

THE CASE FOR FREE SPEECH

Free expression has become contentious, yet those who should defend it often remain silent. In France, prosecutors have restricted the movement of Telegram’s head while investigating the platform. In Britain, social media users are being imprisoned for posts made during recent riots. Meanwhile, in the United States, efforts are to ban TikTok, a popular Chinese-owned app. As governments increase control over online speech, debates over free expression are intensifying.

In some cases, the restrictions are justifiable. France’s investigation into Telegram, a cloud-based messaging app developed by Russian entrepreneur Pavel Durova with 50 per cent more global users than X, centres on its inadequate regulation of illegal content, including material involving child exploitation and drug sales. While Telegram contests the charges, claiming compliance with European digital standards, the case targets clear illegalities.

Similarly, America’s stringent stance on TikTok is defensible. With over a billion users, TikTok has disrupted the market, but its ties to Beijing raise concerns about potential manipulation by the Chinese Communist Party, particularly as many users rely on it for news. While individuals have a right to free speech, foreign governments do not, and banning TikTok may be necessary if it cannot cut its ties to China. However, other cases seek to censor speech that should remain lawful. India, the United Arab Emirates, and others are attempting to weaken encryption, while Malaysia now

Elon Musk, businessman and investor known for his key roles in the space company SpaceX and the automotive company Tesla, Inc.

Free speech is the bedrock of democracy, and an unelected pseudo-judge in Brazil is destroying it for political purposes.”

requires religious posts to be pre-approved by the Department of Islamic Development.

Even wealthy democracies are increasingly resorting to censorship. The European Union is investigating X for spreading misinformation and racism—issues that, while concerning, do not warrant legal intervention. In Britain, while it is appropriate to jail those inciting violence, convicting individuals for merely “grossly offensive” tweets crosses into unjustifiable censorship. Even in the U.S., a country known for its strong freespeech protections, Facebook has accused the White House of pressuring it to remove satirical content about COVID-19.

This complacency is dangerous.

Synergia Takeaways

Restrictions on speech affect all users of online platforms, not just the billionaires who own them. Moreover, freedom of expression is not secure in the hands of inconsistent libertarians like Musk. Free expression is a fundamental liberal value, and true liberals must defend it before it is further eroded.

Better governance, improved coding, or new business models can address the flaws in social networks. While these solutions may help, the deeper issues stem from inherent trade-offs in human communication. As platforms shift toward private groups, oversight diminishes.

Escaping echo chambers often exposes users to more extreme content, and focusing on entertainment leads to less engagement with news. As social media evolves, operators and users should shift focus from old concerns to addressing these emerging challenges.

THE GREAT LAKES RIVALRY

DRC is caught in a cycle of protracted conflict as competing armed groups fight for the region’s mineral wealth.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

With its immense natural resources and thinly populated expanses, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has attracted the wrong kind of attention from external forces, both regional and extra-regional. Since its independence in 1960, the painful story repeats itself year after year.

India has a close connection with the country; in the 1960s, when the UN tried to enforce peace on the conflict-torn nation, Indian troops acted as the vanguard, suffering heavily in the bargain.

Even today, India is the leading troop contributor to MONUC/ MONUSCO since it was formed in 2005.

The Eastern regions of The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are once again enmeshed in chaos as the M23 Rebellion ramps up its control over the North Kivu province. The return to war has stirred up old rivalries and could send the heart of Africa into a second regional conflict. The March 23 Movement (M23) is at the heart of this crisis.

The common perception is that Rwanda is behind the M23, testing diplomatic relationships and raising the spectre of instability in the entire Great Lakes region. This crisis not only threatens to destabilize Central Africa but also rock global mineral supply chains crucial for cobalt and lithium, both scarce materials abundantly found in Eastern Congo.

The impact of the conflict spreads beyond DRC’s borders, with regional trade disrupted and investment drying up. This is certainly taking its toll, and the neighbouring countries are no exception to this, with Uganda recently revealing a 30 per cent fall in cross-border trade to DRC in 2023.

An agreement was reached to implement a ceasefire between the DRC and Rwanda in Luanda, Angola, on July 30, 2024. The truce, implemented on August 4, was meant to end violence and set a stage for talks. But, like numerous ceasefires prior, this one has mostly held just in principle.

HISTORICAL CONTEXT

DRC is caught in a cycle of protracted conflict as competing armed groups fight for the region’s mineral wealth.

The recent violence is rooted in the horrific Rwandan genocide of 1994, when about 800,000 Tutsi and moderate Hutu were butchered over a short span of 100 days. In the aftermath, about 2 million Rwandan refugees, many of them genocidaire, streamed into Eastern Zaire (now DRC), creating a conflict that would last for decades. The mass repatriation fuelled the First Congo War (1996-1997) and then its still deadlier suc-

cessor, the Second Congo War (1998-2003), which drew in nine African nations and a multitude of armed groups. The latter conflict caused an estimated 5.4 million deaths, most through disease and starvation and was the world’s deadliest conflict since World War II.

The dreaded M23 (March 23 Movement) emerged in 2012 after a mutiny within the Congolese national army. The group rapidly expanded, and by November 2012, it had conquered large swathes of land in North Kivu province, including the provincial capital city of Goma. After intense international pressure and a more robust UN peacekeeping mandate, the M23 was vanquished in 2013. Several of its fighters ran off to nearby Rwanda and Uganda. However, thanks to external help, mainly that of Rwanda, M23 was revived in 2013–21, once again becoming the dominant armed group in the region. M23’s return in the last quarter of 2021 was backed by a powerful recipe of unresolved grievances, incomplete implementation of previous peace agreements and ever-growing competition over control of lucrative mineral resources. By 2022, the M23 had achieved major territorial gains, seizing North Kivu’s key territories, such as Greater Bunagana on the Ugandan border in June. In a span of few months, the reemergence of the group displaced more than 450,000 people, according to U.N. estimates.

THE MINERAL GRAB

Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is a resource-rich region with abundant cobalt, lithium and Coltan deposits. DRC hosts more than half the world’s cobalt reserves. In 2023 alone, the DRC mined almost 130,000 tons of cobalt (supplying nearly 68 per cent of the world’s stock). Lithium mining has not yet come to the fore, but the country holds huge reserves, including at the Manono-Kitolo mine, which could become one of the world’s largest lithium producers. The discovery of Coltan (a major source of tantalum) has also been extensive, with the region providing close to 60 per

cent of the world’s tantalum. Electric vehicle batteries, smartphones, and other high-tech appliances are mostly forcing this growth in demand. With a pivot toward cleaner energy sources, this value has continued to rise, and the DRC now finds itself at the heart of global supply chains.

The war in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been linked to competition for control over the region’s vast resources. The ICJ has estimated some 5.4 million have died due to conflicts between 1998–2007. The set of actors includes rebel forces such as the M23, government troops, and international actors like Rwanda competing over these material resources through a seemingly persistent war.

GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS

The M23 rebellion has wrought economic chaos not only for some of the poorest areas in eastern DRC but also creating ripple effects in global supply chains.

The International Organization for Migration states that more than 7.3 million people have been displaced nationwide. This has hindered agricultural activity and local trade, leaving many families without essential goods and a local economy in free fall. M23 has also taken control of major supply routes, causing costs of basic goods to soar in Goma, a key economic centre and mining hub where prices for some staple goods have jumped by 50 per cent.

The conflict in eastern DRC has kept critical mineral-reliant industries on their toes. Cobalt prices fluc-

tuated by nearly 20 per cent throughout the year, causing some tech giants to be paralyzed by a scramble for supplies that led to production delays as long as three months. The DRC and its neighbours stand to lose as much as $2 billion in yearly foreign investment and another 2-3 per cent of potential GDP growth over the next five years if a lasting peace eludes the region.

MIRAGE OF PEACE

Rwanda’s backing of the M23 rebels has been a major bone of contention in the Great Lakes region. Rwanda has been consistently accused of support for M23 by both the UN and Human Rights Watch (HRW), with recent reports suggesting as many as 3,000 -4,000 Rwandan troops operating with M23 in eastern DRC as of June 2024. Rwanda has complicated motivations as well; gold exports from Rwanda increased by 46 per cent between 2014 and 2023 despite the country having no access to gold within its borders!

The tensions between DRC and Rwanda escalated in June 2022 after DRC suspended all trade agreements with Rwanda, accusing them of supporting M23. The measure not only worsened bilateral ties but it also undermined regional economic integration. The conflict has frustrated the efforts of both countries to bolster economic collaboration in the East African Community (EAC), a regional grouping of which both nations are members.

No one side is guilt-free; each has accused the other of violations, and none of the underlying issues driving their conflict have been resolved. The ceasefire failed for several reasons, namely the absence of trust between parties and the general incoherence of various armed groups in eastern DRC, but can also be linked directly to continued territorial claims by M23.

As of September 2024, the conflict shows no signs of abating. Despite the ceasefire, M23 has made territorial gains in North Kivu province. In early 2024, the group increased its attacks, shifting frontlines in Masisi territory and around Sake. The risk of a broader regional conflagration looms large, with the UN Special Envoy

to the Great Lakes warning of a potential direct confrontation between the DRC and Rwanda. The ongoing military build-up by both states, lack of constructive dialogue, and persistence of hate speech have created a powder keg situation that threatens to engulf the entire Great Lakes region.

Antony Blinken, United States Secretary of State `

Rwanda should use its influence with M23 to encourage them to withdraw and to pull back its own forces.”

Synergia Takeaways

Clearly, the international community has persistently failed to preserve peace in the region despite pumping billions of dollars (and precious lives of UN peacekeepers) into Congo’s bottomless pit of human suffering. The blame lies mostly on its own corrupt rulers and highly volatile ethnic mix as well as on its neighbours. International mining conglomerates are also not above blame, fishing for easy profits in the chaos.

Rwanda has persistently bucked international pressure but has stubbornly refused to rein in the M23. A favourite of Western powers, also colloquially called the Israel of Africa, it evidently has strong supporters in the West. This support must stop if the conflict has to be halted.

As a peace enforcer, the UN has failed in DRC despite committed nations like India sending large contingents to operate in its dark tropical jungles. Evidently, the M23 problem has a solution in political deals and not in kinetic force.

A BALANCING ACT

Türkiye’s bid to join BRICS shows it aims to strike a balance.

Tarini Dhar Prabhu, Research Associate in Synergia Foundation

Türkiye’s application to join BRICS marks the first time a NATO member has applied to join the group dominated by Russia and China. The BRICS views itself as a counter to the Western-led global order. Türkiye’s move to join BRICS signifies the balancing act it is striking in a polarized world order. It is also a step to reduce its dependence on the West.

AN ALTERNATE POLE?

Originally Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the BRICS grouping expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia. The group now represents 46 per cent of the world’s population, 29 per cent of the world’s GDP, 43 per cent of oil production and 25 per cent of global exports. Türkiye is one of almost 20 countries that have applied for membership in the bloc. The bloc’s New Development Bank, an alternative to the World Bank and IMF, has attracted a growing membership with Algeria, which was recently approved as a member after Uruguay and Bangladesh.

While the BRICS lacks formal structures and enforcement mechanisms, its role is all the more important in an increasingly polarized global order. The Ukraine war elucidated differences between the Global South and the Western-led developed world as many Global South countries and Türkiye refused to join sanctions against Russia and insisted on maintaining a neutral stance. The Gaza war has also revived criticisms of Western double standards as several Western countries displayed unwavering support for Israel despite its relentless war on Gaza. The participation of middle powers like Türkiye could increase the significance

India is likely to have a mixed response to Türkiye joining the BRICS. While India could benefit from increased cooperation with Türkiye in areas like trade and energy, it is also cautious about Türkiye’s close ties with Pakistan as it plays a key role in the Muslim world.

of BRICS. Nations like Türkiye also seek a multipolar world order rather than one dominated by superpowers. India is likely to have a mixed response to Türkiye joining the BRICS. While India could benefit from increased cooperation with Türkiye in areas like trade and energy, it is also cautious about Türkiye’s close ties with Pakistan as it plays a key role in the Muslim world. Türkiye supports Pakistan in its Kashmir dispute with India. Given the strained ties, it is not certain whether India will approve Türkiye’s membership.

TÜRKIYE’S GAMBLE?

Not surprisingly, Türkiye’s bid to join BRICS has raised concerns in Western countries. Located between Europe and Asia, Türkiye’s leaning is of vital interest given its geographic location near the Ukraine and Gaza wars. An aspiring EU member, Türkiye, is keen to retain its NATO membership and European aspirations. However, it is equally keen to diversify its alliances and refuses to be boxed into a foreign policy framed by its NATO membership.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is known for his strategy of balancing divergent alliances. However, it has not been all smooth sailing and has caused friction in ties with Western nations. Türkiye’s military ties with Western nations were sharply strained over

Hakan Fidan, Minister of Foreign Affairs Türkiye

Turkey acted on good intentions with regards to its ambitions for full EU membership. If our economic integration with the European Union had been crowned with membership, which is now (only) at the level of the Customs Union, maybe we would not be on such a search. We see that the power matrix is constantly evolving, especially in the current world where there are approximately 200 nation-state actors. No country has the chance to handle crises in the world without forming an alliance, that is, without paying a huge price.”

its purchase of the Russian S-400 defence system that was designed to bring down NATO planes. In December 2020, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Türkiye, Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), under Section 231 of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) for knowingly engaging in a significant transaction with Rosoboronexport, Russia’s main arms export entity, by procuring the S-400 surface-to-air missile system. The sanctions include a ban on all U.S. export licenses and authorizations to SSB and an asset freeze.

The U.S. also removed Türkiye from the F-35 jet programme. Joining BRICS could open new opportunities economically and diplomatically and enable Türkiye to have a foot in every camp. It could help it step into a role as a bridge between East and West that reflects its geographic location between Europe and Asia. On the other hand, it runs the risk of aggravating its tensions with the U.S. There are serious concerns in the U.S. that BRICS Plus is aspiring to create a new world order in which the U.S. dollar would no longer reign supreme.

GEOECONOMIC COMPULSIONS?

Türkiye’s bid to join BRICS is part of its effort to foster diverse trade ties and reduce its dependence on traditional ties with the West. Given Türkiye’s significant energy reliance on neighbours like Russia, which supplies almost 50 per cent of Türkiye’s natural gas, economic interests play a critical role. China’s Belt and Road Initiative aims to connect East Asia with Europe, with Türkiye as a key distribution hub. Türkiye views BRICS as a platform to expand its economic influence, gain new trade opportunities and sources of investment, and extend its participation in global supply chains.

The nation’s balancing act is as much a necessity as a choice, given its geographic location amidst multiple conflicts and its economic dependence on external sources for debt finance. Further, by positioning itself as a diplomatic bridge, Türkiye aims to make itself an indispensable power in the global arena. Türkiye has recently engaged in global diplomacy, such as its role in brokering negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The partial export of Ukrainian wheat to feed the global

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of the Republic of Türkiye

Turkey can become a strong, prosperous, prestigious, and effective country if it improves its relations with the East and the West simultaneously. Any method other than this will not benefit Turkey but will harm it.”

South last year resulted from Turkish diplomacy.

DOMESTIC POLITICAL COMPULSIONS

Erdogan has long sought to portray himself as a leader of the Muslim world. Yet, Türkiye’s inability to effect a change in Israel’s assault on Gaza has weakened Erdogan’s standing and stoked hardline Islamic sentiment in the country. Türkiye’s move to join BRICS could be a way to distract the public from this and gain more international leverage.

Given Türkiye’s consistent commitment to NATO, it is unlikely that its actions signify a move away from its Western allies. Joining BRICS is not necessarily an anti-Western move; India and Brazil have been in the organization from the start. However, it could reflect Türkiye’s dissatisfaction with its current equation with NATO, where it often feels sidelined or faces differences with other members over issues such as defence procurement, regional security, and political alignment. Moreover, despite decades of being aligned with Europe and the West, Türkiye has consistently been rejected from joining the EU. Applying to join BRICS could also be a response to this slight.

Synergia Takeaways

For some time now, especially under Erdogan, Türkiye has been slowly but steadily drifting from the Western camp, trying to develop a stronger independent foreign policy. It is the one NATO member who is most lukewarm to NATO’s support of Ukraine and has placed serious obstacles to the expansion of NATO. This move further corroborates this tendency.

Türkiye’s move to join BRICS is a way to hedge its bets and balance its divergent foreign policy ties. Türkiye is determined to maintain a multipolar foreign policy and balance its ties with the East and West in an increasingly polarised global order.

It is also a way to gain more leverage on the global stage as a diplomatic go-between. Further, its economic reliance on countries like China and Russia makes strengthening its ties with BRICS worthwhile.

NOT NECESSARILY GOOD NEWS

Confusing signals are emanating from China, not all good; there are implications for the Indian economy.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

In the mid-to-late 1990s, China faced a significant debt issue, but its entry into the World Trade Organization spurred rapid growth, allowing the debt to diminish quickly. Today, however, China confronts challenges amid the “Great Decoupling,” characterised by foreign capital withdrawals, U.S. technological restrictions, and declining export demand in the West. Deflation is expected to persist, and strong growth is unlikely to alleviate China’s debt burden. Premier Li Qiang has commended the government for avoiding “short-term growth at the cost of long-term risk.”

While indiscriminately injecting money into the economy without structural reforms would be ineffective, Xi Jinping and his economic team prioritise “highgrade growth.” The focus is on technology-driven industrial sectors led by state-owned enterprises.

Despite progress on the production side, China has neglected demand-side reforms crucial for driving a consumer-led recovery. The leadership appears more open to credit-based stimulus, though it is unlikely to deliver the desired results.

Both fiscal and monetary measures are under consideration, and with public debt at around 80 per cent of GDP, there is room for increased central government borrowing. However, this growth model exacerbates long-standing issues such as overcapacity, low investment returns, and rising debt.

China’s economic stagnation is rooted in a combination of political choices, structural issues, and policy missteps. Xi Jinping’s prioritisation of national security and technological advancement over economic growth has undermined private investor confidence.

Beijing has struggled to boost domestic demand, the key engine for sustained growth, and remains committed to “common prosperity.” Xi’s emphasis on redistribution and frugality has dampened urban middle-class consumption, making it difficult to envision consumption as a growth driver. Exports remain crucial, but global economic slowdown presents additional challenges for China.

Chinese deflation could soon become a global concern, especially for the U.S., potentially leading to a damaging race to the bottom for American corporations and workers.

PAINFUL GRIND FOR CHINA

The challenges are numerous, from the collapse of major property developers like Evergrande to declining consumer confidence, high youth unemployment, and stagnant growth. The illusion of ever-rising property values has been shattered, and the government’s options are limited. Massive stimulus would risk destabilising the currency, which the leadership is unwilling to

CHINA’S RETAIL SALES AND FACTORY OUTPUT GROWTH SLOWS IN JUNE

China’s retail sales and factory output slowed in June as sluggish domestic demand continued to weigh on the country’s patchy economic recovery.

accept. China’s economic recovery in 2024 will depend on stabilising the property market, reviving household consumption, improving external conditions, and restoring confidence in the economy. However, geopolitical tensions, global supply chain disruptions, and demographic challenges threaten long-term growth.

Despite the December Central Economic Work Conference’s call to “promote a positive narrative” about China’s economic prospects for 2024, it’s difficult to argue that the economy is doing well or that the year ahead will be smooth. Xi Jinping and the leadership are committed to transitioning to a “New Development Concept” focused on high-quality growth. This shift, already challenging, is compounded by post-pandemic issues, mounting debt, employment concerns, stock market volatility, and declining confidence in policymakers.

Those anticipating a return to robust stimulus or more pragmatic policies will likely be disappointed. While targeted stimulus efforts aim to manage debt and prevent a sharp economic downturn, large-scale measures like 2008’s are unlikely.

Optimism for policy shifts surrounding the March National People’s Congress or the rumoured Third Plenum may also be misplaced. While the recent stock market downturn has added pressure, other aspects of the economy have not worsened significantly enough to prompt a sudden change in strategy.

The hope for meaningful action to address the real estate and local government debt crises persists, but resolving these issues will be painful. China’s leadership seems prepared to endure more economic pain than many investors and citizens expect.

Despite some functional aspects of China’s vast economy, the debt problem looms large. Without significant intervention, the currency could face devaluation, leading to further unrest.

China’s future hinges on addressing the “4 Ds”— debt, demand, demographics, and decoupling. While

these factors suggest potential stagnation, the outcome is not predetermined. With external improvements and structural reforms, China may still achieve sustainable growth, though the political will to enact such reforms remains uncertain.

The government’s industrial policy, focused on increasing self-sufficiency in high-tech sectors, has neglected domestic demand, particularly household consumption, which remains weak due to high savings rates.

While boosting technological sectors, this policy approach will likely result in slower GDP growth (around 3-4% annually) and persistent deflationary pressures, exacerbating issues in China’s property market and local government debt. The government’s reluctance to deregulate services, the key to unlocking domestic demand, limits broader economic growth. Consequently, China faces slower overall growth, an expansion of its technology exports, and increased protectionism from other nations.

Despite these challenges, China’s economy has historically managed to avoid crises, but its current trajectory is constrained by high debt, shrinking labour force, and inefficient financial systems

NEIGHBOURHOOD IMPACT

As an emerging market economy, India aligns with China’s trade paradigm by exporting natural resources and resource-based products while importing manufactured goods. A decade ago, India’s trade imbalance with China was based on an import-export ratio of 3:1, which has since widened to 5:1. Since it is generally easier to find alternative sources of imports than new export markets, India would face less disruption than China

from any bilateral trade interruption. This holds for broader economic relations, as minimal foreign direct investment (FDI) or debt flows from China to India exist.

Similarly, the United States, which also has a significant trade deficit with China, would be less affected than China in the event of a bilateral trade war.

Although official data suggests China’s GDP growth remains around 6.5 per cent, many analysts believe real growth has dropped to between 4.5 per cent and 5.5 per cent. If accurate, the global economy has already absorbed the negative effects of this deceleration. Any further decline from 5.5 to 4.5 per cent would have a relatively minor impact compared to the significant drop from 10 per cent to 5.5 per cent. The direct effect on India’s economy has been negligible and will continue to be.

Assuming the official 6.5 per cent growth figure is accurate, a further slowdown to 4-4.5 per cent would primarily impact countries exporting natural resources to China. Reduced global demand for natural resources would lower prices, affecting exporters. However, India would benefit from lower energy and commodity prices, with limited impact on specific sectors like iron ore and steel. Over the medium to long term, a decline in China’s manufacturing profits and investment would restore the global supply-demand balance in tradable goods, benefiting India and the global economy.

Due to falling profits, China’s investment, driven largely by state-owned enterprises and local government entities, is increasingly financed by credit from government-controlled banks. As China’s growth slows and the credit bubble bursts, credit and investment in manufacturing will contract sharply. This reduction in excess capacity will ease price pressures on manufactured goods globally, allowing investment in manufac-

turing in developing countries and emerging market economies to recover gradually.

Since 2001, China has been the largest contributor to global growth, with India surpassing the United States to become the second-largest by 2008. Between 2008 and 2014, China accounted for 38.5 per cent of global growth, while India’s contribution was 13.3 per cent, slightly over one-third of China’s but more than double that of the U.S. The Eurozone, during the same period, had a negative contribution.

With Chinese wages rising to market levels, India’s labour costs are now competitive. This could lead to a shift of labour-intensive manufacturing from China to India, particularly as excess capacity in China is reduced. Foreign investors may find India a more attractive and less risky location for production, further boosting Indian growth.

China’s economy, which grew at its slowest rate in 24 years (7.5% in 2014), poses risks locally and regionally, affecting Asia’s overall economic growth. India’s economy, which shares 2% of its GDP with China, will be affected by a slowdown in the Chinese economy. A declining Chinese economy could impact India’s consumer spending and infrastructure growth.

China imports approximately 70 per cent of its iron ore from India. A prolonged downturn in China’s real estate market could harm these exports. In addition, reduced investment from India in China could exacerbate the slowdown, while accelerated economic reforms could position India as a new manufacturing hub.

PROGNOSIS FOR INDIA

Rupa Rage Nitsure, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda, sees China’s industrial decline as an opportunity for India to reclaim lost export markets. India’s econ-

omy often likened to an elephant—slow to start but formidable in momentum—has shown resilience amidst global economic crises. Recently, India has transitioned from a sluggish pace to a more dynamic trajectory.

This optimism for India emerges during a critical time as China, once the engine of global growth, faces significant economic challenges. With its youthful population and expanding industrial base, India is poised to emerge as a potential successor.

Eswar Prasad, a trade policy professor at Cornell University, asserts that India is well-positioned for growth due to numerous reforms and increasing interest from foreign investors. Enhanced relations with Western nations, which view China with increasing scepticism, further bolster India’s appeal as a stable investment destination.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates that the two countries will account for nearly half of global growth this year, with China contributing about 35 per cent. To surpass China as the leading contributor to global growth in the next five years, India must achieve a sustained growth rate of 8 per cent. Barclays analysts project a growth rate of 6.3 per cent for India this year, while China aims for around 5 per cent amidst its own economic hurdles.

The Modi administration is actively pursuing a $5 trillion economy by 2025, facilitating a robust business environment and attracting investments. Much like China’s earlier transformation, India is investing heavily in infrastructure, dedicating $120 billion in this year’s budget alone. Since 2014, India has expanded its national highway network by 50 per cent.

India is also leveraging its strengths in the digital sector, with significant advancements in digital public infrastructure that have transformed commerce. Programs like Aadhaar and the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) have promoted financial inclusion and streamlined transactions, benefiting millions.

To capitalise on the global re-evaluation of supply chains, India has introduced a $26 billion production-linked incentive program to attract manufacturing

in electronics and pharmaceuticals. Major companies, including Apple supplier Foxconn, are expanding operations in India as a result. Despite this progress, experts caution that India is not replicating the rapid growth experienced by China in the late 20th century. Challenges remain, such as bureaucratic hurdles and unpredictability in foreign direct investment policies, which differ from the more streamlined processes seen in China’s earlier economic liberalisation.

Niall Ferguson, Professor, Harvard University

By 2050, China’s economy will only be 40 percent larger than India’s, a significant closing of the gap, illustrating the ‘tortoise’ catching up with the ‘hare.”

Synergia Takeaways

China’s economy, which grew at its slowest rate in 24 years), presents risks not only domestically but also regionally, impacting overall economic growth in Asia. Given that India’s economy is linked to China sharing 2 per cent of its GDP with its neighbour, a slowdown in China will likely affect India’s consumer spending and infrastructure development.

Although India is making strides toward becoming a significant player in the global economy, it faces hurdles in matching China’s historical scale of investment and consumption. It would take years for India to catch up in these areas. Nonetheless, India is positioned to influence the global economic landscape, albeit not in a manner sufficient to counterbalance any significant downturn in China’s economy fully.

There is an opportunity lying out there for India to grab, provided the Indian government and its corporations have the wisdom and grit to grasp it.

ADVANTAGE, HARRIS

Kamala Harris has survived the debate; will she be able to mount a successful campaign to the end?

SWilliam John Emmott is an English journalist, author, and consultant, best known as the editor-in-chief of The Economist newspaper from 1993 to 2006.

ighs of relief were exhaled around the world after the TV debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, not just from Democratic Party headquarters but also from the governments of America’s many allies and friends. The relief was for things that did not happen: Vice-President Harris did not implode, did not show herself to be weak and inadequate, did not show herself to be a dangerous radical and did not get trampled on by the bullying Trump.

The question remains whether having thus avoided disaster, her positive achievements in the debate and positive qualities will be enough to convince American voters on November 5th. There can be no real dissent from the fact that Harris “won” the debate in that she emerged from the 90 minutes a lot stronger and more confident than Trump did. The fact that Trump went personally to speak to the media in the so-called “spin room” after the debate shows that he knew he had done badly, and the reporters present would have understood the significance of his decision.

WILL IT PULL VOTES?

What no one can know is what impact this event will have on voters. On the one hand, it will give the Harris campaign a lot of video clips to use during the 54 remaining days to try to drum the messages in. And some of Trump’s weirdest comments during the debate, including his claims about pet-eating immigrants and his confession that nine years after vowing to abolish Barack Obama’s healthcare scheme, he still doesn’t

Despite the debate reaching huge numbers of viewers [reportedly more than 50 million], America’s media is now so fragmented and politically polarised that such debates may not have the broad national impact they once did.

have a plan for what to put in its place, will persuade more Republican voters either to abstain or to vote for Harris.

On the other hand, prejudice against female politicians and America’s ingrained political polarisation could still make voters reluctant to change their minds. Moreover, despite the debate reaching huge numbers of viewers [reportedly more than 50 million], America’s media is now so fragmented and politically polarised that such debates may not have the broad national impact they once did.

For those who are watching or reading about it, Harris almost certainly did enough during this debate to remove the main doubts about her, which concerned her toughness under fire and her leadership qualities. Notwithstanding media fragmentation, my guess is that if the election were to be held tomorrow, she would win. But it isn’t tomorrow, and there is still a long way to go.

GLOBAL IMPACT

Harris’s most telling line of attack came when she said that she had found that world leaders were “laughing” at Trump in her travels as vice president. This neatly underlined her own international experience while turning against Trump one of his own favourite lines, that supposedly foreigners are laughing at America and specifically laughing at President Joe Biden.

In reality, of course, neither Harris’s nor Trump’s claims can be thought of as true. Foreign governments know that it is never in their interest to be seen to laugh at other government leaders, especially one as powerful as the president of the United States, and they wouldn’t openly laugh at a man running for re-election, either.

Yet Harris’s claim did capture something that is real and true, in two ways. The first is that although they would not be foolish enough to say it publicly, there can be no doubt that the leaders of America’s allies and friends would prefer a Harris victory for the simple reason that Trump is threatening to start a trade war against them by imposing a 10 per cent tariff on all imported goods, and frequently rubbishes the military alliances in Europe and Asia that America has relied upon since 1945.

This is why those allied and friendly leaders will have been relieved that Harris had proved herself a viable candidate and that she now stands a fair chance of winning. Most allied governments have watched in horror the rise, fall and re-emergence of Trump. This is not even personal: the horror is about what Trump’s popularity and political power tells them about America and its potential future path. If they were actually laughing, it would be laughter mixed with dread at the state of America, with its powerful economy but its politics even more dysfunctional than their own.

THE FUTURE

The second way in which Harris’s claim captures reality concerns the view held by America’s adversaries, chief among them China, Russia and Iran. Their leaders won’t actually have laughed at Trump, at least not in the presence of Vice-President Harris. But they will surely feel that their interests would be better served by a Trump victory, for such an outcome would serve to discredit American democracy as well as raise the risk of serious civil disorder. It is true that such disor-

der could follow either outcome. Still, adversaries’ expectation would likely be that disorder might be nasty but short-lived after a Harris victory. In contrast, after a Trump victory, the stakes for the future of democracy, the rule of law and basic civil rights would be so high as to incentivise a longer-drawn-out and, hence, more debilitating conflict.

Many military and foreign policy officials who served in senior posts during the first Trump administration, including John Bolton and Lieutenant General HR McMaster, who were both National Security Advisors, have stated publicly that they felt foreign adversaries such as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping saw then-President Trump as an easy man to manipulate. The fact that Trump is openly transactional in his style will add to that impression: he is a man who can be bought off.

This view of Trump may not be correct: perhaps he would be a tougher adversary than Putin and Xi think, and his unpredictability may also be a concern. But we can be sure that they would be happier if the next president of the United States is a man rejected by many of his own past advisors, by countless senior military figures and by every living former vice-president, including his own. They may not laugh if he were to win, but they would surely smile with a certain smug feeling of satisfaction.

Gavin Newsom, Governor of California

She consistently looked into the camera, addressing you, addressing me, discussing the American people, and the issues they care about, while he was fixated on dogs, crowd sizes, and his grievances, indulging in a little pity party and a victim mentality.’’

A CAUSE FOR CONCERN?

Dissanayake emerged as the front-runner in Sri Lanka’s first presidential election since the economic crisis: Should India be worried?

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

Marxist leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake has won Sri Lanka’s first presidential elections since the 2022 economic crisis. The leader of the National People’s Power coalition won the election by 1.27 million more votes. His party, the JVP, is known for stoking anti-India sentiments in Sri Lanka.

The election served as a referendum on President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s two-year rule, which had led to a fragile economic recovery filled with austerity measures.

The new presidency will be key to determining the future of reforms in the country that recently faced its worst economic crisis in decades. However, the new President’s China leaning could be a source of concern for India.

STILL NOT OUT OF THE WOODS

Sri Lanka went into sovereign default in April 2022, and its foreign exchange reserves ran out. Half of its public debt was owed to foreign creditors. Inflation soared nearly 70 per cent, and commodity shortages led to widespread unrest. Mass protests compelled President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country and resign.

China is the largest bilateral creditor, and Sri Lanka has become a leading example of China’s debt trap diplomacy. Previous governments’ economic misman-

The new President has recognised India’s support in Sri Lanka’s development. He has also assured that he will ensure that Sri Lankan land, sea, and airspace are not used in ways that threaten India and regional stability.

agement also contributed to the crisis with reckless spending, including debt-driven infrastructure spending. Other factors, like the Covid-19 pandemic, crippled the country’s tourism sector.

In 2023, the government of Interim President Wickremesinghe secured a $2.9 billion bailout from the IMF. Since then, Sri Lanka has been on a path of recovery with lower inflation and borrowing costs. India, too, extended a helping hand to prevent a total collapse.

Structural reforms aimed at curbing public spending and raising revenue, coupled with a revival of the tourism industry, led to higher-than-expected growth. Yet, the country continues to face economic challenges. Between 2019 and 2023, poverty levels more than doubled. (Chatham House, September 17, 2024)

THE FIELD OF CONTESTANTS

Amidst all the challenges, it was evident that the new President would have his plate full. However, far from discouraging eligible candidates, the Election Commission approved a total of 39 applications for the

presidential election, the highest number ever recorded for a presidential election in Sri Lanka!

Sri Lanka has a powerful presidential system of executive government with the President being the head of state, government, cabinet and the armed forces. The prime minister has a few powers, such as recommending cabinet ministers.

The main presidential candidates included the incumbent Wickremesinghe, who was unpopular due to austerity measures under the IMF bailout, despite his success in dealing with the shortage of essentials like fuel, cooking gas, and food.

Dissanayake, leading a Marxist-led coalition, was the main challenger to Wickremesinghe. He is popular because of growing disillusion with the corruption people believe led to the economic crisis and because he is not linked to the business and political elites who ran the country in the past.

After a half-century of its survival before two insurrections, the JVP stood as a catalyst factor in the presidential election of Sri Lanka. Embittered by the cascade of failures attributed to the major political parties, essentially the nepotism of the Rajapaksa regime until the ousting of Gotabaya in 2022, the people seem to have developed trust towards JVP’s charismatic leader, Mr Dissanayake.

Another contender was Sajith Premadasa, the leader of the country’s main opposition party. He planned to continue with the IMF but claimed that he would introduce changes to lessen the burden on poor people. Premadasa had secured the support of the strong Tamil political bloc.

Namal Rajapaksa, coming from a powerful political clan, was another contester. His campaign relied heavily on his father’s legacy, who is considered a hero by some

A CROWN OF THORNS

The economy will be a major issue. Under Wickremesinghe, inflation fell, and foreign reserves grew. However, high taxes were a source of complaints. While Wickremesinghe contended that the IMF agreement can’t be majorly changed, Dissanayake claims he has plans to renegotiate it to ease the burden on the public.

Due to its strategic location in the Indo-Pacific and China’s growing regional influence, the nation’s election result is geopolitically significant. China and India are watching closely since Sri Lanka features in their regional rivalry. The left-leaning Dissanayake has pledged to cancel an Indian wind power project by Adani, claiming it threatens Sri Lanka’s energy sovereignty. Like in the Maldives and other South Asian countries, governments in Sri Lanka tend to stand out for being either pro-China or pro-India. However, in reality, Sri Lanka cannot afford to sideline either China or India.

The U.S. is not sitting this out either; it has also embarked on projects to counter China’s economic influence. In 2023, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation pledged half a billion dollars to support the development of a deepwater shipping container terminal in the Port of Colombo.

Since Wickremesinghe is associated with the country’s IMF bailout, Dissanayake’s pledge to improve the terms of the debt restructuring could result in a different economic trajectory, although he will not exit the IMF bailout.

IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

Dissanayake is considered close to China, which

for presiding over the bloody end to the civil war against the Tamil Tiger rebels. However, many voters blame the Rajapaksa clan for the economic crisis.

does not bode well for New Delhi’s interests in the island. Sri Lanka has already handed over the strategic Hambantota Port to Beijing on a 99-year lease.

Dissanayake became well-known in 1987 when the JVP led an insurgency against the Indian Peacekeeping Force that went to Sri Lanka to disarm the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).

The JVP opposed the India-Sri Lanka Accord of 1987 and the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which sought to boost trade and investment between India and Sri Lanka. Dissanayake also opposed Sri Lanka’s move to hand over Katcha Theevu back to India.

India supported Sri Lanka with $4 billion in aid to help it through the economic crisis. After this, many Indian projects in the island nation were begun. There are now concerns that Dissanayake’s win could threaten Indian companies’ projects in Sri Lanka.

While he has toned down the anti-India rhetoric and pledged to maintain cordial ties with India, his opposition to Adani’s investments in Sri Lanka (such as the 450 MW wind power project) indicates that the new President could alter existing ties with India. This time around, the Indians were proactive and extended an invitation to him to visit India, which he accepted, and he travelled there this February.

Friendly ties with Colombo are important for India, not just due to strategic interests in the Indian Ocean region but also due to the Tamil question in Sri Lanka.

EXPERT COMMENTS

The transition in Sri Lanka is different from that in the Maldives, and both differ distinctly from the change in Bangladesh. In Colombo, the new President has campaigned for domestic change, not with an anti-Indian agenda as in the Maldives. In Bangladesh, the Awami League government was ousted by an unelected coalition of forces whose main grievances were domesticthough India did get dragged in due to our longstanding support to Sheikh Hasina.

In Sri Lanka, we were not specifically identified with Ranil Wickremesinghe’s leadership, though we had virtually bailed out the government during the financial crisis in 2022. Each case is different, but the lesson lies in recog-

Tamils comprise 11 per cent of Sri Lanka’s population. India has a longstanding demand to Sri Lanka to devolve powers to the country’s Tamil minority through implementing the 13th Amendment, which Dissanayake opposes.

However, the new President has recognised India’s support in Sri Lanka’s development. He has also assured that he will ensure that Sri Lankan land, sea, and airspace are not used in ways that threaten India and regional stability.

Synergia Takeaways

Wickremesinghe stood out for his role in stabilising the economy, but the austerity measures he oversaw were unpopular. JVP’s Dissanayake has emerged as the unlikely winner, representing a shift from the establishment associated with the economic crisis.

India is cautious about the rise of left-leaning, pro-China elements and would be concerned that his winning might lead to a geopolitical realignment on the island.

Sri Lanka needs India as much as India needs a friend in Colombo. Early indicators are positive, and while political utterances are sometimes necessary for winning votes, wider compulsions come into play once in power, making relations between power elites more nuanced and muted.

nising that techno-economic and cultural turbulence is driving political change everywhere, and global powers like U.S. and China will try to mould outcomes to advance their interests. We must keep in touch with all relevant parties in our neighbours’ polities while doing our best not to become a divisive issue in their domestic politics. That cannot always be avoided given the (welcome) increasing depth of our geo-economic presence.

Our credibility requires us not to shy away from supporting friends and partners. But we also need patience and diplomacy to deal with change. Then, like in the Maldives, economic and geopolitical realities can lead to course correction away from anti-Indian policies. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka (not to forget Nepal) will need India’s support in resolving looming economic dilemmas.

AMBASSADOR RANJAN MATHAI

Former Foreign Secretary of India

The JVP’s rise to power is of great significance to the region as it has the potential to drastically change the status quo of local politics and regional relations.

The Aragalaya movement that was more-or-less organised and coordinated by the JVP and its fronts, such as the IUSF (Anthare) and FSP (Peratugami) organisations, was the catalyst to this emergence of a Marxist party to the highest seat of power.

Following the economic crisis, the mood of the Sri Lankan population shifted to a general rejection of traditional power structures such as the UNP, SLFP, SLPP and SJB parties. Accusing them of bankrupting the country through mismanagement and corruption, a call for change was prevalent.

Opposed to the traditional power structures was the JVP (now NPP), a former violent organisation that led the bloody insurrection against the government in 1971 and 1987-89. After moving into mainstream politics, the JVP continually aligned and allied with the big political players for decades, including in 2005 (with Mahinda Rajapaksa), 2010 (with Sarath Fonseka) and 2015 (with Maithripala/Ranil).

However, with the economic crisis, they launched a rejectionist campaign that sought to coherently differentiate themselves from the traditional politicians. They vowed to end corruption and bring a new beginning to the nation. Although JVP did not get a majority in the elections (the second count was launched for the first time in history), this campaign of theirs was a clear success as the people democratically chose this group to lead the nation for the next five years.

In terms of implications for the people, the main concern that analysts and certain economists have is the current economic crisis. Sri Lanka is just recovering from the deep 2022 crisis that the nation faced. During their campaigns, JVP called for rejecting foreign efforts to aid recovery, especially the IMF plan that the previous leader, Ranil, negotiated. Cancelling or structurally changing the IMF program could lead to the IMF withdrawing support or negatively affecting the nation’s economy.

The immediate work plan of the JVP will be to dissolve the parliament, function with an interim cabinet, and call for general elections, which are likely to be held in November. The new President, AKD, will likely remove most heads of government institutions as well. This has already started with the appointment of a new

Secretary to the Ministry of Defence and Secretary to the Ministry of Public Security. Both appointments were given to former military/police personnel who campaigned for the JVP in the past.

The hype that the new President’s victory has created could drag towards the general election, and the JVP, who only had three seats in parliament, could emerge as a majority in the next election. This is likely to happen if general elections are conducted soon and with a sustained campaign by the group.

The fresh change in power could be a refreshing change to the political environment in Sri Lanka and the Sri Lankan people if promises are kept. However, given the nation’s current and recent economic and political changes, any structural policy changes made by the JVP government could toss the nation into instability.

In the regional geopolitical realm, the new government’s foreign policy is likely to be weak as opposed to how the immediate previous government conducted foreign affairs. During the days of the violent insurrectionist JVP (now NPP), they were radically anti-India.

However, they have largely gone out of this anti-India stance publicly. Likely, they will not go against India or China, but they will not be pro-India. Ideologically, the group is Marxist but closer to the Maoist school of thought. Hence, from an ideological perspective, they would be close to China. Still, operationally, it is not unlikely that the party would move into China’s orbit as the support they have received is largely from people who don’t identify as communist and, therefore, any radical pivot back to communist/socialist doctrines will make them suffer in public perception.

Despite this supposed change from Marxism to conventional politics, aspects such as class struggles, welfare, and pro-government institutions (anti-private sector) continue to be promoted by lower-level operational members of the JVP party. Whilst violent factions of the JVP, such as Kumar Gunaratnam’s Peratugami, are likely to try to emerge as leaders in government, this may not be promoted by the current JVP leadership and President because if any violent incidents occur, the JVP may lose their ability to win over public trust as this would defeat the re jectionist campaign that they led.

RASHAN JUDE PINTO

Researcher in Sri Lankan National Security.

BACKSTAGE CLIMATE

BY RAJAN MEHTA

“Backstage Climate: The Science and Politics Behind Climate Change” explores both the scientific and political dimensions of climate change. It explains key concepts like the greenhouse effect and highlights the role of human activities, such as fossil fuel burning, in global warming.

The book examines the severe impacts on biodiversity and vulnerable communities, particularly in developing nations, while critiquing the influence of fossil fuel industries and climate denial. Mehta emphasizes climate justice and advocates for renewable energy, sustainable practices, and a just transition for fossil fuel-dependent communities. He calls for urgent, collective action to address the climate crisis.

Q: What causes Climate Change?

Climate change is governed by two key phenomena: the orbital cycle and the carbon cycle. The orbital cycle includes Earth’s eccentricity, axis tilt, and precession, which influence the amount of sunlight the planet receives, driving cycles of warming and cooling over millennia. When the poles receive less sunlight, ice accumulates, leading to ice ages, while increased sunlight causes warming. The carbon cycle involves the movement of carbon between Earth’s spheres, with fossil fuels and industry being major contributors to greenhouse gases. Small nations like Kiribati face immediate threats from rising sea levels, highlighting the urgency of climate action.

Q: Is Nuclear Energy the way ahead?

The shift to renewable energy sources like solar and wind presents challenges due to their intermittent nature, requiring effective energy storage solutions.

Nuclear energy offers a cleaner alternative, though public perception has been shaped by incidents like Fukushima. Innovations in nuclear technology, including safer fission and potential fusion energy, are being developed, with companies like Bill Gates’ TerraPower leading advancements. Optimism is growing around breakthroughs in fusion energy, which could provide a safe and abundant energy source for the future.

Q:

Will advancements in lithium battery technology make a difference?

Companies are increasingly focused on reducing the carbon footprint of battery production, with future batteries expected to last over 100 years and be fully recyclable. Key materials like lithium and cobalt are becoming more available, though the challenge lies in improving extraction methods. Despite being abundant, lithium is found in low densities, especially in underground brines. Technological advancements are addressing these challenges, and the proportion of lithium and cobalt in batteries is decreasing. For example, cobalt content in lithium-ion batteries has dropped from 20% to 2% in just three years, signaling a move towards more sustainable battery technologies.

Q: What strategic alternatives do we have regarding climate change?

Predicting doomsday stifles inquiry and innovation. Instead, addressing issues with optimism fosters solutions, as seen in the 1950s when predictions of global food shortages led to scientific breakthroughs like the Green Revolution. Similarly, today’s climate crisis can be tackled through human ingenuity and collective action. However, progress depends on political will and individual behavior changes. While policy changes are vital, technology is essential to resolve the climate issue, as greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere will impact the climate for centuries, even if emissions stop today. The challenge requires sustained commitment and innovation.

RAJAN MEHTA

Founder, Climate Ventures Partner

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