Insights August Edition

SYNERGIA

MONTHLY EDITION

NAVIGATING GLOBAL TURBULENCE

STRATEGIC ANALYSIS ON CONFLICTS AND EMERGING THREATS

EDITOR’S NOTE

Dear Reader:

Greetings from the Synergia Foundation!

As Israel escalated the war in the Middle East by taking it to the lair of the wolf- literally striking the head of its assorted enemies while ensconced in safe sanctuaries- the region teetered on the edge of the precipice. So far, Iran has held its hand, and an uneasy peace has prevailed. But what next? Does Netanyahu have an end plan?

In our regionals scan, we look at the brewing turmoil in Bangladesh and the nuances of elections in Sri Lanka. Closure home, as terrorists run amok in the Jammu Region, we do a detailed analysis of the security situation, taking views of experts who have extensively operated in the area.

Our in-house maritime domain expert looks at policing international waters through a maritime peacekeeping force that could operate under the UN insignia.

Warfare in all its dimensions remains our focus, and in this issue, we look at Hybrid Warfare with a focus on the cyber element. Also, our aviation expert analyses the efficacy of rotary wing platforms in the evolving modern battlefield.

There is a growing sense that India may be regressing into protectionism, just like many advanced economies do. We analyse all the issues related to this subject.

We also examine how high fashion and luxury shopping are no longer fashionable, as growing disparities become so obvious that even states have started taking notice.

Being in the Ground Zero of Climate Catastrophes, India cannot afford to ignore the destruction of its ecology.

The degradations of our mountains, both in the North and the South, are grim reminders of our follies, which must be stopped. We also analyse how Lithium is going the same way as Oil.

Lastly, we have an eminent expert analyse the chances of Kamala Harris in the forthcoming U.S. Presidential elections.

We hope our esteemed readers will continue supporting us as we strive to further evidence-based research on strategic issues with global resonance.

Sincerely yours

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NEIGHBOURHOOD

BANGLADESH -

SPOTLIGHT

HEADHUNTING IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Is Israel’s mastery of targeted assassinations the ultimate solution, or is there more to consider? / P 03

GEOPOLITICS

INDIA AND CANADA IN A CHANGING WORLD

India and Canada have so many complementary attributes that make a dispute that much more surprising. / P 30

HEALTH ANALYSIS

FACE

A Global Game of Strain and Seek is being played out as Mpox resurfaces on European and Asian shores. / P 48

After her joyous Chicago, Kamala must face 72 days under fire. / P 51

HEADHUNTING IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Assassinations of proscribed enemy leaders with surgical precision remain Israel’s forte, but is that an end-all?

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

Ahallmark of Israeli security policy has been the strategic targeting of top leadership of its enemies anywhere in the world. Soon after independence, it was Nazi war criminals in the crosshairs and now the numerous militant organisations that relentlessly wage war against the Israeli state. The Israeli Security Establishment takes pride in calling the top leaders of its enemies “Dead Men Walking” — Yahya Sin — war, who has reportedly assumed command of Hamas, bears this unwelcome sobriquet now!

The subject has resurfaced in a global debate with the recent spurt in targeted attacks, most prominent being Ismail Haniyeh, a top Hamas leader blown into smithereens while safely ensconced in the high-security official guest house of the IRGC in the heart of Teheran.

Different theories have emerged about how the deed was done; the New York Times (4 Aug 24) broke a story that an explosive device planted by agents approximately two months ago was remotely detonated at the precise moment Mr Haniyeh entered his room after the presidential inauguration ceremonies where international media feted him.

Recently, one of Haniyeh’s surviving sons (in April, an Israeli missile strike killed three of his sons and four grandchildren) claimed that it was a missile that zeroed on the smartphone signal emitting from the guest room, presumably from Mr Haniyeh’s own mobile. We

Spectacular assassinations make for good copy and even better movies. However, when states go beyond the pale of internationally accepted legal norms, they run the risk of being designated rogue nations and can be sanctioned by international bodies.

may never know the truth as neither the Iranians are talking, nor the alleged perpetrator (Israel?).

Only a few hours earlier, a missile strike on a Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut killed a top Hezbollah commander. This time, Israel officially celebrated it, putting this news on the X, calling it a revenge strike for the rocket that Hezbollah fired on the Golan Heights, killing 12 children.

A WELL HEWN MODUS OPERANDI

Israel has perfected the art of ‘targeted killings’ or ‘decapitation strikes,’ applying it over the years to Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad to take out their leadership. It has made this strategy its primary counterterrorism technique.

High-priority targets are identified and tracked with the latest technology using latest ISR technology before being struck down by the proverbial bolt from the blue. The intention is to destabilise the command-and-control structure, albeit temporarily, making it less effective.

Bruce O. Riedel, Former CIA analyst who focused on counterterrorism in the Middle East.

When you have an organization that is spread out over numerous territories, going after the leadership gets to be pretty difficult.”

The roots of targeted killing can be traced back to the founding of Israel as a modern state, post the creation of the Palestine Mandate after World War I. During its genesis, the nation adopted targeted killing as its counterterrorism strategy. Nazi war criminals hiding in faroff South America and Arab militants were designated enemies of the state, and assassins despatched to find and fix them, especially during the turbulent 1950s and 1960s.

After the massacre of 11 Israeli athletes during the 1972 Munich Olympics, a secret Israeli committee chaired by Prime Minister Golda Meir and Defence Minister Moshe Dayan is said to have authorised the assassination of everyone directly or indirectly involved with Black September. This Fatah-affiliated group had orchestrated the Munich killings. The events have been graphically recorded in a hit Hollywood Movie appropriately named “Munich.”

During and after the Second Intifada, the strategy of ‘targeted killings’ was used extensively in unique and innovative ways. They primarily focused on the elimination of the leadership of the Palestinian military group.

A VICIOUS CYCLE OF VIOLENCE

More importantly, targeted killings are only shortterm tactical victories and do not contribute to strategic gains or lasting solutions. Rampant assassinations of top leaders, critics have argued, lead to uninvited consequences, further resulting in more radical figures, increased violence and regional instability. However, terror groups are not driven by personalities; after a brief consolidation period, most spring back into action. No one knows this better than the Israelis, but with few other military options, they continue to persist.

In 2004, Ahmed Yassin, the spiritual head and founder of Hamas, was followed by a drone, marking him with an invisible laser. Hellfire missiles were fired from a loitering F-16 jet, killing the leader and several others around him; while the intention was to eliminate the leader and weaken Hamas militarily and ideologically, Israel made a martyr out of the leader, giving birth to decades of violence.

Similar assassinations have been carried out outside Palestinian territories. Imad Mughniyeh, the military commander of Hezbollah, was assassinated in similar circumstances. Several Western countries, along with Israel, were victims of Mughniyeh’s brutal violence, and his death was translated into victory in Israel. However,

Hezbollah successfully reorganised itself and continued more military strikes and operations.

With the media and press revolving around high-profile assassinations, many intellectuals have questioned its legal and moral accountability on a domestic and international level. Apart from perpetuating a vicious and violent cycle, targeted killings also open Israel to a series of vulnerabilities in the future. Spectacular assassinations make for good copy and even better movies.

However, when states go beyond the pale of internationally accepted legal norms, they run the risk of being designated rogue nations and can be sanctioned by international bodies. Targeted killings violate International Law and can be viewed as extrajudicial executions. The ICJ has already issued arrest warrants for the Israeli Prime Minister and his defence minister, making them logically fugitives if they visit any of the signatory states.

The unwillingness to compromise has also put Israel in a very isolating stance. Selective targeted killing once in a while can be justified as exercising the right to self-defence. But if exploited as a national strategy, global organisations and human rights organisations will not hesitate to condemn Israel. Israel’s negative perception has grown, potentially undermining its diplomatic efforts.

In 2008 in Operation Cast Lead, IDF targeted top Hamas operatives and infrastructure. However, the high-civilian casualities, enraged the International Community and Human Rights organisations, swinging their support in favour of Palestine. Several ethical questions were also raised after the operation. Critics, both within and outside Israel, have severely criticised these methods for causing mindless collateral damage and killing civilians, exacerbating tensions and encouraging further radicalisation.

The discourse of its effectiveness is still very contested. Its advocates argue that it has been a significant deterrent in dismantling terrorist plots before they were launched. The receding large-scale attacks on Israeli soil are used as an indicator to streamline this policy further. Critics highlight the strategy’s superficial nature, emphasising its effectiveness on the symptoms rather than the root cause.

WHAT IS THE END GAME

Israel’s strategy of targeting the top guns of terror organisations reveals its multifaceted approach to its national security. It is built on the premise that eliminating key top figures will result in a power vacuum, weakening the organisation’s integrity. There is a strong element of psychological warfare that keeps the enemy in a constant state of fear and suspicion.

But sometimes it can backfire. In certain quarters, Ismail Haniyeh was considered a moderate leader and was reportedly pushing for a return of hostages to usher in an early ceasefire in Gaza. If this is true, then efforts

towards a ceasefire will definitely be adversely impacted. Many claim that his assassination was deliberately orchestrated by Prime Minister Netanyahu, who does not want a cessation of hostilities to sustain his own political survival. There are ultra-right-wing ministers in the current cabinet who would like the Hamas to be obliterated, whatever and however long it takes.

Such killings can certainly abort short-term attacks and fudge immediate plans. In the case of Hamas and Hezbollah, both organisations were left in a sudden state of shock and disarray. Additionally, eliminating hardened leaders like Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Imad Mughniyeh impairs the group’s ideological and motivational core, resulting in challenges to group cohesion.

However, the long-term effectiveness of this strategy is debatable, as the enemy will certainly get an idea of it and keep second tier of leadership trained and prepared for such contingencies. After all, amidst conventional military forces also the death of the commander no longer leads to a rout, as was the outcome in ancient warfare.

On the other hand, experts have observed a rallying effect after a targeted killing, invigorating the support for the group and improving its popularity among its base. The assassinations of Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Ismail Haniyeh have only hardened Hama’s determination and reinforced the narrative development of martyrdom and victimhood, useful to attract fresh recruits to the cause.

Assessing Israel’s end game will require one to consider the strategy of targeted killings and its alignment with the nation’s long-term goals. For long-lasting peace, purely military intervention will not be enough. An exhaustive approach with a blend of diplomatic engagements and economic outreach to bridge the gap will be necessary to complement the military efforts.

Within the context of the conflict, the continued hostilities towards Palestine seemed reasonable; however, with the hostages present in the same localities as

the Hamas operative, differentiation between hostages and terrorists might pose some challenges. The past has seen Hamas taking hostages (but not on this scale) and Israel successfully manoeuvring them back. This time, the scales are vastly different.

Nasser Kanaani, Spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran

Haniyeh’s martyrdom in Tehran will strengthen the deep and unbreakable bond between Tehran, Palestine, and the resistance.”

Synergia Takeaways

Israel seems at a loss in crafting an end game because its opponents keep changing the rules of the game. Having said that, aimless and mindless killing will only harbour more security challenges for an already insecure nation. The responses from all stakeholders highlight the potential for increased violence and destabilisation. Thankfully, Iran’s retaliation has not yet come, so peace in the region holds for the time being. But for how long?

It is paramount that Israel considers the potential for unintended ramifications, including the birth of more radical elements coupled with the exacerbation of the conflict while engineering its targeted killing policy.

Ending Hamas through brute military force is a utopian dream; violence only begets violence and will result in generational radicalisation with a rejuvenated hatred for Israel. Israel needs to have a more realistic way of ‘Ending Hamas’ even if it has to shed its decades-held belief in not surrendering land that it considers the promised one.

BANGLADESH: FROM SHORE TO SCORE

After an unbroken rule of 15 years, the pro-India Awami League is out in the wilderness. What awaits Sonar Bangla?

Lt Gen G A V Reddy AVSM, SC, VSM (Retd) is the former Deputy Chief of Integrated Defense Staff, DG-DIA and Chief Strategic Advisor, Synergia Foundation.

It would be an understatement to say that today, Bangladesh is experiencing significant political upheaval; perhaps never in its history has this teeming nation faced such a political upheaval. The tragedy is that a Prime Minister who can rightfully claim to have turned the economic cart of this poverty-struck nation around in a dramatic manner is the subject of the wrath of the people.

Under Hasina Wajed, Bangladesh emerged as a model for from a basket case to a model for Third World countries. The country also fared well in terms of human development indicators. Yet, the economic slowdown of recent months and spiralling inflation raised questions about medium- and long-term economic prospects, adding to the social and political unrest.

THE CURRENT SITUATION

A newly established interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has taken over, with its members reportedly recommended approved by the students who spearheaded the protests.

The Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman promised to stand behind the interim government. The “Chief Adviser” Yunus holds the rank of the PM, while members of the advisory council enjoy the status of ministers.

Bangladesh’s instability may provide an opportunity for China to expand its influence in the region. If a government less favourable to India were to emerge, it could shift alliances towards China, complicating India’s strategic interests. Increased Chinese investments and military influence in Bangladesh could alter the regional balance of power.

In another significant move, Khaleda Zia, a bitter rival of Sheikh Hasina, was released, and her party attended the all-party meeting (to which the Awami League was not invited).

This move is seen as a response to the protesters’ demands for a shift away from the Awami League’s longstanding dominance.

The evolving political situation in Bangladesh remains fluid, with the interim government facing the daunting task of restoring stability and addressing the populace’s demands for democratic governance and economic reform.

Yunus’s immediate challenges will be to ensure law and order after days of chaos that saw attacks on the houses of Awami League politicians, sporadic attacks on temples, and homes of minority Hindus who were considered close to the ousted Hasina.

WHAT TRIGGERED THE COLLAPSE?

As per the popular narrative, it was Hasina’s autocratic rule, economic disparities, rampant corruption and a discriminatory job quotas policy that forced the hands of the people. There may be an element of truth in this. Media reports on using state machinery to quash dissent and maintain control were a common feature for many years. Like India and other emerging economies, despite significant economic growth under Hasina’s leadership, the benefits were not evenly distributed. The widening gap between the wealthy elite and the impoverished masses possibly fuelled public anger and resentment.

In the weeks preceding Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation, Dhaka became a focal point for escalating protests. Initially driven by student-led movements against civil service job quotas, these demonstrations quickly transformed into widespread anti-government protests. The protests revealed deep-seated discontent with Hasina’s authoritarian regime and highlighted the growing demands for democratic reforms and accountability. Sadly, over 455 deaths occurred and thousands of injuries that included students, police officers, civilians and, in the latest round of bloodletting post the collapse of governance, minority Hindus and Awami League cadres.

A cursory examination of past parliamentary elections of 2014, 2018, and 2024 will give an insight into the brewing undercurrents of discontent and political angst against the Hasina government. Allegations of rigging, low voter turnout, and violence were endemic. Worse, the Opposition parties boycotted the elections, further eroding public trust in Hasina’s government.

More worrying for India, a host of conspiracy theories are doing the rounds. Analysts are pointing to the role of foreign actors, which adds a layer of complexity

to the already volatile situation. This suggests a complex web of international interests and influences affecting Bangladesh’s political landscape — highlighting the intense geopolitical manoeuvring.

ROLE OF THE ARMY

The military played a pivotal role as Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman announced the formation of an interim government, signalling the military’s involvement in the political transition.

Although the current Army Chief has shown no proclivity so far in ruling through a military junta as in the past, some analysts are calling the collapse a “silent coup.” The Bangladesh army has a long history of coups. It had taken a back seat over the past 15 years or supported the Hasina Wajed government, but the current power vacuum pulled it into the role of arbiter.

It may not be possible to impose military rule in the country now. It is highly doubtful that the people who fought against authoritarian rule by a political party will accept military dictatorship. Another reason deterring a military takeover is the expected reaction from the international community, particularly the UN. Bangladesh is among the top contributors to UN peacekeeping forces. There’s a clear indication that the country could lose that position in the case of a military takeover. It is now becoming increasingly clear that the military will back an interim government comprising technocrats. However, it remains to be seen if such an arrangement can work in a highly volatile situation.

The current situation may lead to a more pronounced military influence in political affairs, which could have lasting implications for democracy in Bangladesh. The relationship between the military, the BNP, and any interim government will be critical in shaping the future political landscape.

REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS

The immediate future of Bangladesh is fraught with challenges. The need for democratic reforms and addressing economic disparities will be crucial for the country’s future stability.

Bangladesh’s instability can potentially significantly impact regional security in South Asia. The political chaos could create a power vacuum that extremist groups might exploit. Historically, political instability has been linked to the resurgence of radical elements, which could lead to increased terrorism and insurgency not only within Bangladesh but also spilling over into neighbouring countries, particularly India. The potential for radicalisation of disenfranchised youth amid economic hardship could further exacerbate this threat.

The ongoing unrest could undermine regional cooperation frameworks, such as BIMSTEC and BBIN, crucial for economic and security collaboration among South Asian nations. A less stable Bangladesh may impede progress on joint initiatives and connectivity projects, affecting regional integration efforts.

Continued unrest may lead to a humanitarian crisis, potentially resulting in an influx of refugees into India. This could strain resources in border states and create social tensions, complicating India’s internal security landscape. The situation could mirror past refugee crises in the region, historically leading to significant challenges for India.

The Bay of Bengal, in which Bangladesh holds a strategic location, has become increasingly important in geopolitical terms. Control and influence over its maritime routes is crucial for both economic and military reasons, prompting increased naval activities by regional and extra-regional powers. Dacca can balance regional contestation in the Bay of Bengal or alter the balance.

Bangladesh’s instability may provide an opportunity for China to expand its influence in the region. If a government less favourable to India were to emerge, it

could shift alliances towards China, complicating India’s strategic interests. Increased Chinese investments and military influence in Bangladesh could alter the regional balance of power.

THE DANGER OF EXTREMISM

Jamaat-e-Islami, an organisation promoting political Islam, has been a persistent challenge. The Hasina government, before the collapse, claimed that the Jamaat-e-Islami activists were responsible for the recent spate of violence in Bangladesh. Based on its investigation, Jamaat-e-Islami was banned by her on August 1, 2024.

Influenced by Hasan Al Banna, Sayed Qutb, and Abu Ala Maududi, Jamaat-e-Islami is the equivalent of the Muslim Brotherhood in Bangladesh. The widespread view is that Jamaat-e-Islami will bring back not democracy but its Muslim Brotherhood ideology. In such a milieu, both Islamist political and religious parties, such as Hefasat-e-Islami, will grow. The real danger to Bangladesh will be the revival of Al Qaeda-aligned Harakat-ul Jihadi Islami and Islamic State-aligned Jamiatul Mujahideen Bangladesh, which was kept under check. Furthermore, the environment will create the opportunity for new threat groups, notably Allahr Dal and Jamaatul-Ansar-fil-Hindal Sharqiya (Assembly of the Helpers in the East of India, or “Jamaatul Ansar”) to re-emerge.

Pakistani intelligence service ISI has been operating in Bangladesh through Jamaat-e-Islami. Many are of the view that the Bangladesh government should have banned Jamaat-e-Islami in 2023 when it instigated Hefazat-e-Islami to promote an Islamist agenda. Although Sheikh Hasina took control of Hefazat-e-Islami from the Manhajis, the pro-Al Qaeda and Jamaat-e-Islami faction, she banned Jamaat-e-Islami belatedly. The return of Political Islam will threaten not only Bangladesh but also the countries where Bangladeshi nationals work and live.

The possibility of Jamaat-e-Islami gaining influence in the interim government may lead to increased rad-

Muhammad Yunus, Chief Advisor of the interim government of Bangladesh

If it prolongs and takes turn towards more confrontations, spillover of people across the borders will be a natural outcome…. In peaceful times… (the migrants) are tolerated, but in politically charged times, they may present themselves in diversified unacceptable roles all across the borders.”

icalisation and anti-India activities. The biggest unanswered question is whether this would impact the internal security situation in India’s Northeast, confronting India with 3.5 Fronts.

SHOULD INDIA BE CONCERNED?

Undoubtedly, Hasina Wajed’s rule saw Dhaka becoming very close to New Delhi. Her party’s association with it goes back to India’s role in the 1971 war. Hasina Wajed’s exile in India after the assassination of her father also brought her closer to the Indian leadership. However, her pro-Indian stance drew criticism from the opposition, particularly the religious parties. In her ouster, New Delhi has lost a close regional ally.

The instability may lead to heightened tensions along the India-Bangladesh border. Increased infiltration attempts by militants or criminal elements, necessitating a stronger security response from India. This could strain relations between the two countries, as India may feel compelled to enhance border security measures, potentially leading to confrontations.

The protests against Hasina and its aftermath have taken on a definitive anti-India flavour, which may affect India’s relationship with the new government.

The political instability will likely disrupt the robust trade relations that flourished under Hasina’s leadership. Bangladesh has been a crucial trade partner for India, with bilateral trade reaching approximately $13 billion in the last fiscal year. The exit of Hasina could stall ongoing discussions regarding a proposed free trade agreement (FTA), which aimed to enhance trade volumes significantly by reducing tariffs on goods exchanged between the two nations.

It would especially worry many Indian companies operating in Bangladesh. Approximately 25 per cent of textile units in Bangladesh are Indian-owned; due to the instability, investments from Indian firms pending establishing a stable government will have to be put on hold.

India has invested approximately $8 billion in various infrastructure projects in Bangladesh since 2016, including critical rail links like the Akhaura-Agartala and Khulna-Mongla Port rail lines. The current unrest poses a risk to these projects, potentially delaying con-

struction and implementation timelines, which are vital for enhancing connectivity between the two nations. Disruptions in infrastructure projects could weaken India’s influence in Bangladesh and open opportunities for other regional powers, including China, to expand their presence there.

The political flux will impact projects funded by India designed to benefit local communities significantly. Delays or cancellations could hinder economic development at the grassroots level, affecting the livelihoods of Bangladeshis and access to essential services, including health and civic amenities.

Obviously, it is a challenge to India’s foreign policy because we don’t expect regime change to take place this way. India’s wish for Bangladesh is stability, democracy, and continued development. Speaking to Moneycontrol.com, Veena Sikri, India’s Former High Commissioner to Bangladesh, put it very succinctly when she said that India’s future relations with Bangladesh will hinge on the new leadership and the country’s stability. India will need to manage this situation carefully, maintaining good relations while addressing border security and potential unrest.

Synergia Takeaways

A stable and cooperative Bangladesh is vital for India’s regional security and sustainable development goals. India needs to carve an adaptive strategy to deal with the Long-term Strategic Implications.

Shifts in Foreign Policy: India needs to recalibrate its foreign policy towards Bangladesh, balancing support for democratic processes with the need to maintain stability. The challenge will be to engage diplomatically without appearing to interfere in Bangladesh’s internal affairs, which could further alienate the populace.

Diplomatic strategy must focus on engaging with the interim government to maintain and strengthen bilateral ties. Monitoring China’s activities in Bangladesh will be critical to ensuring that India’s regional influence and security are not compromised. Fostering regional stability will be essential to address potential unrest and security concerns.

Countering Chinese Influence. India must counter Chinese influence in Bangladesh by enhancing military cooperation, investing in joint infrastructure projects and leveraging soft power – the cultural and historical ties to strengthen bilateral relations.

Regional Security Collaboration. India needs to collaborate with other regional powers - Japan and Australia to form a collective strategy to counterbalance China’s growing influence in South Asia.

PEOPLE’S LIBERATION FRONT JVP - SRI LANKA

RISING FROM THE ASHES

Can the inevitable rise of the JVP in Sri Lanka be stemmed?

HThis article is written by Dr. Punsara Amarasinghe a Senior Lecturer at the Faculty of Law, University of Colombo in Sri Lanka. He is also recognized for his expertise in international law and has served in various academic and legal capacities.

aving comprehensively defeated the LTTE, Sri Lanka now has the worrying prospect of facing a resurgent Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, better known as the JVP.

Of communist origin, the JVP came to prominence in the 1970s with its anti-American protests against the Vietnam War, earning it the nickname the “Che Guevara clique” by the Sri Lankan government and international media.

In 1971, the JVP initiated an open revolt against Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike’s government. The government was caught by surprise but, within a few weeks, brought things under control; thousands are reported to have died, and over 20,000 were arrested. The JVP was banned as a political party.

In the 1980s, as Colombo fought the LTTE, there was a shift in the ideology and goals of the JVP. It claimed to represent the oppressed of all communities. Later, it began to identify itself as a nationalist organization.

By 1991, the JVP continued to exist as a pressure group before it was relaunched and allowed to participate in electoral politics. In the most recent parliamentary elections held in April this year, JVP was a part of the United People’s Freedom Alliance.

India remains an important consideration in Sri Lanka politics. JVP’s future dealing with India would eventually decide the finality of Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s political existence.

The indomitable spirit shown by Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna since its inception, even after the total eclipse of its initial political leadership, is remarkable. Unlike many of the leftist political parties swayed and assimilated into the mainstream spectrum of party politics in Sri Lanka, JVP survived and flourished.

JVP stands as a catalyst factor in the coming presidential election of Sri Lanka. Embittered by the cascade of failures attributed to the major political parties, essentially the nepotism of the Rajapaksa regime until the ousting of Gotabaya in 2022, the people seem to have developed trust towards JVP’s charismatic leader, Mr Anura Kumara Dissanayake.

THE INDIA ANGLE

JVP’s antagonistic stances against India played a vital role in the early years of JVP’s formation. JVP’s founder, Rohana Wijeweera, advocated for boycotting Indian products.

The Indian anathema of JVP during both the insurrections that it organized was cemented on the doctrinal basis, in which Wijeweera saw India as a bullying state that tried to undermine the national interests of the island in its post-colonial state building.

Veteran journalist Victor Ivan, one of the early cadres of JVP, who later turned to be an apostate, recalls how JVP abhorred Indian cinema, music and all the cultural items related to India that highlighted the superiority of Indian culture. JVP’s antagonism to India is often imbued with its rapport with China.

Maoist ideology from China buttressed the party apparatus of JVP in its early encounter with Mrs Sirimavo Bandaranaike’s government. In the lost revolution that JVP launched in 1971, which turned out to be an unmitigated disaster, JVP leaders realized that they could not cling to power as India supported Mrs. Bandaranaike’s government to crush the guerrillas.

JVP’s anti-Indian rhetoric reached the next level in the turbulent 1980s when JR Jayewardene’s government signed the Indo-Lanka peace accords, which irked JVP to organize the masses against the Indian Peace Keeping Force.

More than 35 years after the change of the polemics against Indian expansionism, the current JVP faces the old foe in its path to secure the state’s power. The meeting between JVP leader Mr Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Indian foreign minister Dr Jaishankar is emblematic of the changing trends from both fronts. Ironically, the current Indian foreign minister, Dr S. Jaishankar, was stationed in Colombo as the political secretary at the Indian High Commission in the 1980s when JVP propagated its anti-Indian slogans, and RAW (Research and Analysis Wing) had placed a mole within JVP to set up a back channel of communication with Indian officials. The Deputy High Commissioner at the time, Nirupam Sen, had encouraged such a liaison with the JVP and other southern leftist entities.

India remains an important consideration in Sri Lanka politics. JVP’s future dealing with India would eventually decide the finality of Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s political existence.

India’s biggest worry about JVP lies in its tilt towards China in a context where the Chinese presence in the island nation has reached a point of no return. Despite the constant diatribe of JVP in the mainstream vernacular media against Chinese investments in Sri Lanka

Namal Rajapaksa, National Organizer of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna

The JVP has now reached a different view and has engaged in a tour to India, which is a good thing.’’

under the Rajapaksa administration, JVP has not genuinely been hostile towards China.

JVP’s affinity with the Chinese Communist Party has been a stringent one dating back to its revival after the brutal suppression. Its former leader, Somawansa Amarasinghe, leveraged ties with the Chinese Communist Party, increasing its financial capabilities in the early 2000s. Under the present leadership of Anura Kumara Dissanayake, JVP augmented closer links with the Chinese Communist Party regardless of its ostensible criticism of China’s BRI.

THE MILITARY CONNECTION

The current military apparatus of Sri Lanka is another considerable factor that affects JVP’s quest for power. JVP confronted the military twice in 1971 and the 1987-89 period, in which JVP saw the military as an oppressive tool of the government. It was the machinery of the Sri Lankan military that played a dominant role in the brutal suppression of JVP in both the insurrections thus saving the total collapse of governments in power.

Nearly 40 years after the end of the fiasco, today’s JVP stands at a more stable juncture as a popular choice among the people.

However, its popularity in the top leadership of the Sri Lankan military remains questionable as the top-ranking officers in the tri forces of Sri Lanka represent a different set of ethos antithetical to the politics of JVP. Military coups have gained no significant value in the political lexicon of the island except for the attempted military coup in 1962.

TERROR SOUTH OF PIR PANJAL

The beautiful ridges and vales of Pir Panjal are once again reverberating with gunfire as terror violence makes a comeback.

TMaj. Gen. Ajay. Sah SM, VSM (Retd), is the CIO at Synergia Foundation, with experience in conflict resolution, peacekeeping and counterterrorism.

he drum roll of KIAs (Killed in Action) of the Indian Security Forces has been steadily rising with every passing week, drawing attention to the rising tide of terror in J&K.

What has caught the security organs of the state by surprise is that the spike in violence is not in the Valley, the traditional stomping ground of Pakistani terrorists and their local proxies, but in the Jammu region, South of the Pir Panjal Ranges (PPR).

Terror was stamped out of the Jammu Region more than a decade ago by the Rashtriya Rifles’ established counter-terror grid with close coordination with the Special Operations Group of J&K Police

While terror strikes had commenced early last year as the Rajouri belt saw sporadic terror incidents, since June this year, the terrorists have been striking with unprecedented impunity against hard targets like Army convoys and patrols.

As per Lt Gen HS Panag (Retd) (The Print 8 August 24), approximately 90-100 terrorists, including 55-60 Pakistanis, have infiltrated through the International Border (IB) in Samba and Kathua districts—possibly also through the Pathankot district in Punjab—and the Line of Control (LoC) in Rajouri and Poonch districts. The entire swath of mountainous and forested terrain

The Valley is so well protected by the Indian security forces with an efficient intelligence network that foreign fighters would find it hard to survive for more than a few weeks in the Valley; the mountainous region of Jammu, with a much lower troop density, offers a much more advantageous battleground and a longer survivability rate.

has been activated, covering Poonch, Rajouri, Samba, Kathua, Ramban, Doda, and Kishtwar.

IT IS THE GEOGRAPHY!

The PPR is the natural barrier separating the Kashmir Valley from the Jammu region. Rajouri and Poonch are the two main districts traditionally most vulnerable to infiltration across the LoC.

However, in the current round of terror strikes, we observe that small, elusive bands of terrorists have penetrated deeper into the hinterland, with one strike being carried out on a bus of Amarnath pilgrims close to Katra, considered totally immune to such strikes.

It is not very difficult for small groups of hardy fighters to tramp deeper into the interior regions of Jammu once the LoC, with all its obstacle systems, has been successfully breached. The three-tier anti-infiltration

obstacle system (AIOS) is not without its “Achilles’s heel” thanks to the lay of the land- broken ground, nalas that cross the LoC and dark and misty conditions that make surveillance even in the daytime a dodgy affair.

Pakistan has been diligently working out tactics to outflank the AIOS by cutting tunnels under the obstacle and equipping infiltrating groups with the tools and skills to cut through electrified fences rapidly. Clearly, these efforts are paying off.

PPR is almost a no-go area in winter, but movement becomes much easier starting in June, especially for small parties. Intensively covered by thick forest crisscrossed with ridges that never seem to end, aerial surveillance is scratchy unless thermal imagers can detect the body heat of small groups of infiltrating terrorists.

The main PPR watershed is pierced by many passes through which national highways and even lesser-used foot tracks pass. If the SF pressure in the Jammu region reaches a crescendo, as is happening now, terrorists slink into South Kashmir into Kulgam and Shopian areas. This was evidently a practice that the recent terror groups have also adopted, going by the encounters that have recently taken place North of the PPR.

The demography of the region is also a factor. The demographic composition of the area South of Pir Panjal is largely similar to that of POK in terms of culture, language and ethnicity. Poonch has a 90 per cent Muslim population, while Rajouri stands at 60 per cent (CRS Reports 2019). These similarities deepen the ties between the locals here and those in POK. The cultural similarities and lifestyle habits also mean that it is easier for foreign terrorists to blend in with the local population, making the task of security forces even more difficult.

Counter-terrorism strategies are also more difficult to develop here. This region has comparatively less de-

veloped surface transport connectivity than the Kashmir Valley, and reaching incident sites is time-consuming.

THE PAKISTAN HAND

Of course, it would not be out of place to lay much of the blame on India’s Western neighbour for the mischief now being played out. The kind of military hardware that the terrorists are packing, including the much-vaunted U.S. M-24 assault rifles fitted with stateof-the-art thermal scopes and satellite radio communication devices that are immune to interception, can only be sourced from government-controlled arsenals.

At very little cost to itself, the Pakistani deep state can infiltrate a select group of highly trained operatives across the LoC to keep the pot boiling in J&K. The imminent assembly elections in J&K, if they must adhere to the September deadline stipulated by the Hon’ble Supreme Court of India, would be a lucrative period to keep Indian security forces engaged. Also, this is the period of the Amarnath Yatra, which attracts millions of pilgrims to the Kashmir Valley; Kashmiri locals would be very annoyed if the yatra were disrupted in the Valley because it would keep the economy of South Kashmir vitalised. Hence, while pilgrims head in hordes toward Sonmarg in the Valley, there is open season for the terror groups in the region South of the PPR.

More importantly, the Valley is so well protected by the Indian security forces with an efficient intelligence network that foreign fighters would find it hard to survive for more than a few weeks in the Valley; the mountainous region of Jammu, with a much lower troop density, offers a much more advantageous battleground and a longer survivability rate.

Since the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, Pakistan has not been able to interfere in any significant manner with the peace and governance of Kashmir.

This fact would be extremely galling to the Pakistani Establishment. With domestic conditions in a churn and a major TTP insurgency keeping the Pakistani Army fully engaged, it had little time for whipping up trouble in J&K. Evidently, the current crop of Pakistani military leadership is re-evaluating the situation and feels compelled to escalate the temperatures across their Eastern borders without raising the stakes for their own security. The sparsely populated Jammu region has provided an ideal platform for this low-scale but high-publicity gambit; it has definitely got the Indian security establishment up and running!

As per Lt Gen HS Panag (Retd), former GoC in C Northern Command (The Print 8 August 24), the prolonged relative stability of the Jammu region since 2007 and the confrontation in Eastern Ladakh could have led to a dilution of the counter-terrorism grid in the Jammu region.

In early 2008, additional forces of nearly two divisions that operated in this region post-Operation Parakram were gradually withdrawn. Out of 26 Rashtriya Rifles (RR) battalions, four were diverted to the Valley. In 2021, one Counter Insurgency Force HQ and RR Sector with 2/3 battalions were diverted to Eastern Ladakh. No effort was made to fill the void with CAPFs.

When high-end terror inflicted the Jammu Division between 1994 and 2009, additional army formations were inducted post haste and CIForce (Udhampur) and CI Force (Reasi) were raised as part of the RR-fication of the Indian Army’s fight against terror. Concurrently, village defence committees (VDCs) were raised, trained and armed with weapons in remote areas that the Army could not dominate 24 x 7, a measure never tried out in the Valley. That the RR succeeded immensely was evident by 2009 when most terror groups, both home-grown and imported, had been wiped out and peace reigned in the region. The force level in the Jam-

mu Region gradually decreased in consonance with the threat levels, with units and formations moving to other more critical threat areas.

Experienced CT operators will tell you that every time troops dismantle the CT grid in an area, the intelligence grid established with so much effort collapses overnight, as does the security forces’ integration with the local populace through their “Operation Sadhbhavna” efforts. It takes years to establish an effective and reliable intelligence network. From the ongoing operations being conducted in the rugged Pir Panjal region, it is evident that specific actionable intelligence is lacking.

THE WAY AHEAD

The Indian Army’s counter-terror infrastructure is vast and adaptive; corrections are taking place as we speak, and things are on the mend; results will not be too far away. The Counter-Infiltration deployment and Counter Terror grid are undergoing an overhaul. Additional Army units and formation headquarters are flowing in.

However, the terrain does not lend to flooding the area with many troops; the strategy lies in corralling the terrorist groups into well-defined areas where they can be neutralised in detail by highly trained and equally mobile special forces assisted by local guides.

Where possible, drones would be pressed into service if they could detect thermal signatures, but their efficacy would be doubtful in this terrain. However, nothing would please Pakistani planners more than the redeployment of military resources out of the Kashmir Valley into the Jammu Division. This would only open the floodgates for the revival of terror in the Kashmir Valley. Surely, Indian security planners would be sensitive to this and not shift troops from the well-established CT grid North of the PPR.

The Jammu Region, which remained free of terrorist incidents for nearly two decades, witnessed a gradual increase in terrorist incidents from 2021 onwards until it peaked in 2024, raising concerns about security establishments in the country. As long as the Deep State in Pakistan (The Military) does not fundamentally change its policy towards India in general and Kashmir in particular, cross-border terrorism as an instrument of state policy will continue to take place in Jammu and Kashmir.

Therefore, if any part of the Jammu and Kashmir Union Territory remains free of terrorist incidents, it is only temporary and can be activated when and where the Pak ISI desires. What we are witnessing in the Jammu Region is the manifestation of this.

After the standoff with the PLA in Eastern Ladakh in May 2020, the Indian Army redeployed some of its troops from the Jammu Region, creating a void in the counter-terrorist (CT) deployment. It appears that Pakistan, post the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, had devised a detailed plan to activate areas in the Jammu Region where there are apparent voids in the CT deployment. We are now seeing this plan being unfolded.

The traditional modes of infiltration by terrorists across the International Border (IB) and Line of Control (LoC) have been exploited. Alongside, the local support systems in Poonch Region, Udhampur, Reasi, Kathua, Doda and Kashmir have been activated to receive the infiltration modules and guide them towards the area of operation, deeper in the hinterland.

LIEUTENANT

PVSM,

The terrain South of Pir Panjal Ranges (PPR) is rugged, densely forested, and sparsely populated, giving a distinct advantage to the terrorists in exploiting and making counter-terrorist operations much more difficult. The terrorists take advantage of the similarities in the ethnicity of the sparse population in the remote region of the Jammu Region and merge with them, making it difficult for Security Forces (SF) to identify them.

The recent terrorist incident reveals that they are well trained, adopting advanced tactics, using sophisticated technology and lethal Chinese weapons and those left behind by Western Forces in Afghanistan. In addition, the encrypted Chinese radio sets have given them an added advantage in their coordination and avoiding contact with the SFs. They do not seem to be in a hurry to execute the action; instead, they deliberate in identifying the targets and planning and executing them successfully. All this would not be possible without local support and guidance.

Counter-terror operations can only be successful with a good network of human intelligence, the ability to keep the suspected areas under surveillance, and the ability to deny any means of secure communications to coordinate and execute terrorist actions. Isolated habitation in the hinterland and higher reaches of PPR and taking the local community on board in the effective counter-terrorist operation can only yield some tangible success. All these would involve technol ogy infusion and additional troop deployment.

GENERAL DEVRAJ ANBU

UYSM, AVSM, YSM, SM, former Vice Chief and GOC in C Northern Command, Indian Army

VIEW FROM THE GROUND LEVEL

The terrain South of the PPR lends itself to small unit actions by well-trained, highly motivated teams of guerillas living off the land and striking swiftly before fading away.

It is mountainous with dense primary forests with an average elevation of 5000 to 6000 feet. As you trek up the narrow mountain trails, you enter beautifully thick forests of sweet-smelling Deodar and Pine. However, most of the lower reaches of these ridges have been shorn of tree cover over the years due to illegal logging by locals. Nestled amidst the upper reaches are lush green meadows, the traditional summer grazing grounds of sheep from the J&K region and tended to by nomadic Gujjar tribes.

As you proceed from Doda towards the Kishtwar region, which lies under the shadow of the main PPR, the terrain gets more rugged, and hardly any road communication exists. To increase terrain friction for infantry foot columns, the mountains are interspersed with deep khuds, valleys and seasonal water courses prone to flash floods and swift currents during the monsoons and after winter melt in higher reaches.

The population centres are few, scattered, and have a low population- Doda Towan, Ramban, Bhaderwah, Kishtwar, Gundoh, Premnagar, etc. Compared to the Kashmir Valley, the road network too is limited-Doda-Ramban, Doda-Kishtwar and Doda-Bhaderwah. Most villages are, however, located away from main highways and are connected by mule tracks or barely jeepable kutcha roads.

At least this was the status in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and there must have been some improvement since then. While it may be doctrinally prudent to move cross country, practically, it is well-nigh impossible to do so for extended distances; most troop columns stick to these mule tracks and jungle trails, switching to cross country move only selectively and where tactically unavoidable.

The dense forest coverage, ruggedness of the terrain, a host of natural hideouts with difficult and restricted approaches and locals of similar ethnicity as across the LoC to provide sustenance and guidance shift the advantage in the terrorists’ favour, who hold the initiative, forcing security forces into a reactive mode.

Local support, however scanty and scattered, is an important force multiplier for the terrorists. Overground spotters maintain constant surveillance on the few motorable roads and the open lower stretches of the ridgelines from dominating higher reaches, quickly passing the warning to any group lurking in the area.

Large columns of troops heading on a mission are impossible to conceal. Our experience was that when we operated in battalion or brigade-sized columns, we hit only thin air. Only when our small teams covertly operated in the higher reaches could they track down the resident group and, if lucky, corner and liquidate them.

Those who have walked for hours along the narrow jungle-covered mountain tracks trying to outflank a small and evasive band of terrorists lurking in the higher reaches understand what it takes to sight a terrorist in these rugged areas, let alone trap and neutralise one. Unless the information is spot on and the terrorists are tracked to their lairs after duly cutting off their escape routes, most encounters result in a sharp burst of automatic fire as the sentry lets go a warning burst.

The group flees to fight another day, notching up another missed opportunity for the hard-pressed security forces. Actionable intelligence was hard to come up with due to the sparseness of the population; in small hilly hamlets, locals were petrified of the terrorists and could not be persuaded to provide any worthwhile information.

In sum, it is an ideal operating ground for small, mobile, fanatic and physically hardened teams of guerillas.

COLONEL AKHIL SAH (RETD),

Former Commanding Officer of Rashtriya Rifles battalion with extensive experience in CT operations South of Pir Panjal Ranges

THE HYDRA

A new generation of hybrid warfare is evolving with cyber as its principal weapon.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

Hybrid warfare represents a sophisticated and evolving conflict mode that combines traditional military tactics with unconventional methods. This approach has become increasingly relevant in the contemporary geopolitical landscape, where nations leverage advanced technologies to achieve strategic objectives without engaging in traditional military confrontations.

The term “hybrid warfare” gained prominence in the context of conflicts involving Russia, particularly during the annexation of Crimea in 2014. In this scenario, Russia employed a blend of military manoeuvres, propaganda, and cyber operations to achieve its strategic goals without triggering a full-scale war.

A MULTI-FACETED THREAT

Hybrid warfare is a multi-dimensional strategy that integrates various forms of warfare, including conventional military force, irregular tactics, cyber operations, and information warfare. This approach allows both state and non-state actors to exploit vulnerabilities in their adversaries while maintaining plausible deniability.

While both hybrid warfare and traditional cyber-attacks involve cyber capabilities, they differ in several key aspects hybrid warfare employs a combination of conventional military tactics, irregular warfare, cyber operations, and information warfare to achieve strategic objectives. The goal is to weaken an adversary without engaging in direct military confrontation. In contrast, traditional cyber-attacks are typically more narrowly focused on disrupting or damaging specif-

Hybrid attacks blur the lines between peace and war, as cyber-attacks and other non-kinetic actions can inflict significant damage without crossing the threshold of open conflict. This creates legal and operational dilemmas for targeted nations.

ic systems or networks, often for criminal purposes. Such cyber-attacks are more likely to be conducted by individual hackers or small groups without direct state backing. While still potentially damaging, traditional cyber-attacks are usually less complex and coordinated.

Hybrid attacks blur the lines between peace and war, as cyber-attacks and other non-kinetic actions can inflict significant damage without crossing the threshold of open conflict. This creates legal and operational dilemmas for targeted nations.

KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF HYBRID WARFARE ARE AS FOLLOWS: -

• Multi-Domain Operations: Hybrid warfare involves a broad spectrum of tactics across various domains, including land, sea, air, and cyberspace. This multi-domain approach provides flexibility in responding to adversaries and enables attacks on their most vulnerable points.

• Use of Non-State Actors: Hybrid warfare often involves the use of non-state actors, such as militias or cybercriminal groups, which complicates the process of attribution and accountability. This strategy allows state actors to distance themselves from aggressive actions while reaping benefits.

• Psychological Operations: Information warfare is a crucial element of hybrid strategies. Disinformation campaigns and propaganda are employed to manipulate public perception, sow discord, and undermine trust in institutions.

• Economic Manipulation: Economic tools, including sanctions and cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure, weaken an opponent’s economic stability and social cohesion.

• Cyber Attacks: Cyber-attacks in hybrid warfare tend to be highly sophisticated, well-coordinated, and conducted on a large scale. They are often precursors to or accompany conventional military actions.

THE HEART OF HYBRID WARFARE: CYBER

Cyber-attacks are a central component of hybrid warfare, offering a means to disrupt, damage, or manipulate an adversary’s critical systems without physical confrontation. These attacks can target a wide array of sectors, including:

• Critical Infrastructure: Cyber-attacks on power grids, water supply systems, and transportation networks can cause widespread disruption and panic. A notable example is the 2021 Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack in the United States, which underscored the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to cyber threats.

• Financial Systems: Cyber-attacks on financial institutions can destabilise economies and erode public confidence in financial systems. Cybercriminals often exploit vulnerabilities to execute ransomware attacks, demanding payment to restore access to essential systems.

• Information Systems: Cyber operations can be used to steal sensitive information, conduct espionage, and manipulate data to influence public opinion or political outcomes. For instance, using social media to spread disinformation during elections has become common in modern hybrid warfare.

A FINANCIAL ARMAGEDDON

In hybrid warfare, cyber-attacks paralyse financial systems. This is achieved through exploiting vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure, eroding trust, and

creating systemic risks that threaten global financial stability. A prime example of such disruption is attacks on payment processors or banking systems, where the ability to process payments or access funds can be severely compromised.

A recent incident involving a cyber-attack on a technology service provider demonstrated the financial system’s interconnectedness; multiple banks could not send payments, illustrating how one attack can have cascading effects across the entire sector.

The consequences of cyberattacks extend far beyond immediate operational disruptions. These attacks can severely undermine public trust in financial institutions, crucial for the stability of any financial system.

When consumers lose confidence in their banks, it can lead to bank runs, capital flight, and a broader market panic. In this context, the psychological impact of cyber warfare can be as damaging as the physical disruptions caused by the attacks themselves.

State actors may conduct cyber operations intending to weaken an adversary’s economy, disrupt trade, or undermine financial stability.

For instance, attacks on stock exchanges or financial markets can induce significant market volatility, leading to substantial financial losses and diminished investor confidence. Such attacks can have far-reaching effects on economic growth and stability, making them a potent weapon in hybrid warfare strategies.

Moreover, cyberattacks frequently involve the theft or manipulation of sensitive financial data. By compromising financial institutions, attackers can access confidential information, which can then be exploited for fraud, insider trading, or other illicit activities.

The manipulation of financial data can distort market perceptions and lead to erroneous investment decisions, further destabilising the financial systems.

The financial sector’s digital transformation, while offering numerous benefits, has also increased its vulnerability to cyber threats. As banks and financial services increasingly rely on digital platforms, the attack surface expands, providing more opportunities for cybercriminals. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this

trend, with a greater reliance on online services and remote operations, often less secure than traditional systems.

The interconnectedness of global financial markets means that a significant cyber incident in one country can trigger a chain reaction, affecting economies worldwide. The 2017 NotPetya ransomware attack, which targeted operations in Ukraine, led to substantial financial losses and operational disruptions for numerous multnational companies, highlighting the global economy’s vulnerability to cyber threats. These incidents can increase market volatility and hinder economic growth.

The long-term implications of cyberattacks in hybrid warfare include sustained economic damage, increased costs for cybersecurity measures, and shifts in investment patterns. Businesses may need to divert resources from growth and innovation to bolster cybersecurity. At the same time, countries may face prolonged economic instability, reducing their competitiveness in the global market as they recover from such incidents.

THE USUAL SUSPECTS

If one goes by the quantum of data available from Western sources, it would lead us to conclude that Russia is at the forefront of employing hybrid warfare tactics, particularly through its cyber capabilities. The Kremlin has been accused of orchestrating cyber-attacks against various nations, including the United States and several European countries, to influence elections and undermine democratic processes.

The alleged interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election is a prominent example where Russian operatives reportedly used social media to spread disinformation and create discord among voters. Recently, U.S. media reports indicated that the FBI is investigating Russian efforts to hack both the Trump and Biden-Harris campaigns.

Iran also figures prominently in the West-sponsored ‘Rogue’s Gallery’ of hybrid warfare practitioners. The 2012 cyber-attack on Saudi Aramco, which caused significant damage to the company’s infrastructure, exemplifies how cyber capabilities can be used to achieve political objectives and retaliation against much stronger adversaries.

China’s approach to hybrid warfare includes a combination of cyber espionage, economic coercion, and information manipulation. The Chinese government has been implicated in numerous cyber espionage campaigns targeting foreign governments and corporations to steal intellectual property and sensitive information.

As per the New York Times (28 Feb 2021), an outage that crippled India’s electric grid, bringing the financial hub Mumbai to its knees in October 2020 had Chinese fingerprints. A Study found that Chinese malware was flowing into the control systems that manage electric supply across India, along with a high-voltage transmission substation and a coal-fired power plant, timed to

Nancy Faeser, Federal Minister of the Interior and Community of Germany

These attacks are not just aimed at individual parties or specific politicians, but at shaking confidence in our democracy.”

send a message that if India pressed its claims in the Himalayas too hard, the lights could go out across the country.

A STRATEGIC WEAPON

Cyber-attacks’ ambiguity complicates traditional notions of warfare and deterrence, requiring nations to effectively adapt their defence strategies to counter these multifaceted threats. Nations must invest in robust cybersecurity measures to protect critical infrastructure and sensitive data from cyber-attacks. This includes developing advanced threat detection systems and fostering collaboration between the public and private sectors to share intelligence on emerging threats.

Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure supporting global supply chains, such as ports and logistics networks, can lead to severe disruptions with far-reaching economic consequences. Ransomware attacks on European ports have demonstrated how these disruptions result in delays, increased costs, and inflationary pressures.

A striking example is the Port of Los Angeles, which faces an average of 40 million cyberattacks monthly, underscoring the vulnerability of vital economic gateways. When supply chains are compromised, shortages of essential goods can occur, sparking panic and further destabilising the economy.

Synergia Takeaways

Governments must establish clear legal frameworks to address cyber warfare and hybrid tactics. This involves defining the roles and responsibilities of state and non-state actors in cyberspace and establishing norms for acceptable behaviour.

Hybrid warfare transcends national borders, making international collaboration essential in addressing shared threats. Countries must develop joint strategies for intelligence sharing, cyber defence, and countering disinformation campaigns.

Educating the public about the risks of disinformation and cyber threats is also crucial. Building societal resilience against manipulation and fostering critical thinking can help mitigate the impact of hybrid warfare tactics.

TURNING A BLIND EYE OCEAN WARDS?

The United Nations needs to shed its sea blindness.

Rear Admiral Monty Khanna AVSM, NM, (Retd), Strategic Adviser at Synergia Foundation, former Assistant Military Adviser at NSCS.

Crime at sea mirrors what happens on land in most of its manifestations. It, however, differs in one fundamental way –it takes place in the global commons, thereby making the issue of jurisdiction complex. To make matters worse, ships today are a microcosm of a truly interconnected world, being registered in one nation, flagged in a second, insured in a third, underwritten in a fourth, and with crew and cargo from multiple countries. Criminals have historically exploited these lacunae, carefully calibrating their activities to a level that has been below the threshold of compelling nations to evolve a comprehensive response.

However, with the rapidly expanding overlay of terrorism and the ability of activities such as gun-running, human trafficking, drug smuggling and robbery at sea to fund it, there is a growing consensus to curb crime at sea.

RISING ABOVE GEOPOLITICS

The fundamental issue in devising an effective response mechanism is the challenge of decoupling security at sea from geopolitics. A telling example is how the world responded to the piracy situation off the Horn of Africa. In its infancy, it was viewed as a merchant mariner’s problem with no requirement for naval intervention. However, given that the business was highly lucrative, it soon escalated, forcing a response from flagship operators. Grey hulls, therefore, arrived on the scene,

A primary reason for the inefficiency of coordinated responses to maritime security issues at sea is that while we operate in the global commons, we do not have a global police force. The force that responds to identified crises invariably emerges in the form of grey hulls, flying national flags under national command with national rules of engagement.

escorting ships that flew their nation’s flag. Soon, three groupings of effort emerged: the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) run ‘Task Force 151’, the European Union Naval Forces (EUNAVFOR) administered ‘Op Atlanta’ and a grouping under NATO Standing Forces. In addition, several nations, including India and China, continued to function as independent operators.

Realising that a coordinating mechanism was essential to optimise the deployment of the large number of assets in the area, the Bahrain-based SHared Awareness and DEconfliction (SHADE) mechanism came into being. While this dealt primarily with operational issues, on the policy side, a United Nations-sponsored organisation called the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia (CGPCS) was created.

Though a robust response emerged, it was slow to take shape. This slackness allowed private operators to fill the gap by providing a bouquet of services pertaining to vessel protection. While solving some problems,

the presence of armed guards and the consequential ‘floating armouries’ created fresh ones. Insurance companies indemnified the increased risk by drawing out a hugely expensive High-Risk Area (HRA) where exorbitant premiums were charged, the cost of which was largely borne by the littoral nations in the region.

The profitability of doing so was made apparent by the fact that even though the security situation dramatically improved a few years later, the HRA was scaled back much later, that too after a concerted effort by impacted nations.

With the re-emergence of piracy in recent times coupled with a much more dangerous threat posed to merchant shipping due to indiscriminate attacks by Houthis operating from Yemen, we are looking at a replay of events that occurred a decade ago. While standing mechanisms such as the CMF may have shortened the response time, the coordinated deployment and sustenance of assets and their rules of engagement remain a challenge.

POLICING GLOBAL COMMONS

A primary reason for the inefficiency of coordinated responses to maritime security issues at sea is that while we operate in the global commons, we do not have a global police force.

The force that responds to identified crises invariably emerges in the form of grey hulls, flying national flags under national command with national rules of engagement.

As national considerations ride high, the geopolitical baggage carried by the assets deployed raises suspicion amongst the regional actors. Thus, while on the one hand, such forces do contribute towards maritime security stability, often, on the other, they create geopolitical instability. Where, then, lies the solution? We need to depoliticise maritime security tasking and decouple it from geopolitics.

The best way to do so is by creating an apolitical neutral force that could rapidly restore good order at sea should there be a disruption. As the only institution with the capacity and capability to undertake such a

Yury Fedotov, Executive Director of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC)

These crimes pose an immediate danger to people’s lives and safety; they undermine human rights, hinder sustainable development, and as this Council has recognized, they threaten international peace and security.’’

role is the United Nations, consideration must be given to tasking it with such responsibilities.

What would be the contours of a UN-led initiative for maritime security? It would essentially require the setting up of a standing Maritime Security Headquarters with a lean multi-national staff whose task would be to garner and analyse information about maritime security in the global commons with the purpose of early identification of emergent issues.

Once a potential issue has been identified as one that merits addressing, the planning process for intervention could commence. A protocol for approval of such an activity, either from the Security Council or a subordinate U.N. body, will need to be established.

Insofar as assets for intervention are concerned, while a standing U.N. Maritime Task Force may have some advantages, given the tyranny of distance associated with the movement of ships, a better approach would be to seek attachment of ships from regional actors.

Ships seconded to the U.N.-mandated intervention force would be required to fly the blue ensign and be under the Command and Control of the United Nations, akin to how peacekeeping forces are tasked and administered.

An element from the maritime security HQ could best execute the on-site command. Nations will need to be compensated for contributing assets and personnel

as per established norms. With time, a comprehensive Standard Operating Procedure could be drawn up, allowing assets to seamlessly transition from ‘national’ to ‘U.N.’ tasking.

In all fairness, the U.N. is not new to this role. We already have a model in the United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) mission, the Maritime Task Force, which was set up in 2006 and has been functioning efficiently ever since.

The task force is ably led by a UN-appointed Task Force Commander, with ships being provided by various nations, all of which fly the U.N. flag. This model will need to be tweaked per the earlier recommendations to facilitate agile plug-and-play operations in diverse areas.

INDIA’S ROLE

India and the Indian Navy are already strong contributors in this field. Our commitment towards capacity building and capability enhancement in the region is robust.

Our efforts cover a wide swath of activities that include providing material assistance in terms of assets, support for their sustenance, meeting training requirements, providing consultancy where sought, hydrographic support, assistance in the generation of MDA, undertaking coordinated patrols and assistance in the execution of policing functions at sea, amongst others.

In addition, we have been strong supporters of collective security, as demonstrated by our contribution to relevant initiatives under the frameworks of IONS, IORA, BIMSTEC, and the Colombo Security Conclave. We would, therefore, be well placed to take the lead in advocating for the global community of seafaring nations to adopt a U.N.-led approach to seek innovative solutions to collective maritime security challenges.

CONCLUSION

Creating strong maritime security structures inside the United Nations would reverse the trend of growing

geopolitical instability at sea. It would allow maritime forces to work together, thereby building upon interoperability under a broad framework of universal trust and collective good.

Synergia Takeaways

Adopting a collective security approach of the type mentioned above would accrue the undermentioned advantages: -

• Firstly, it would facilitate effective and equitable policing of the high seas (global commons).

• Secondly, when asked for, the policing of waters under national jurisdiction (Contiguous zone/ EEZ) would become far less contentious if it were to be conducted by ships operating under the blue ensign.

• Thirdly, it would promote effective plug-andplay operations as detailed SOPs would promulgate guidelines for communication and data transfer procedures, underway replenishment, visit and board operations, cross-deck landings by helicopters, etc.

• Fourthly, responses will be calibrated with far more economy of effort as they will be devoid of geopolitical considerations that, more often than not, tend to become competitive.

• Fifthly, as the response would largely emerge from regional nations, cultural nuances and other underlying factors would be better understood.

• Lastly, it would promote optimal solutions to emergent challenges such as seawater rise, ocean acidification and overfishing as willingness to acquire and share data and implement mitigation measures would be much greater if the agency involved in doing so were to be one devoid of national biases.

DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION & IMMIGRANTS

Diversity has long been the lifeblood of American innovation, particularly in the technology sector.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

Digital transformation is reshaping industries at an unprecedented pace, bringing both remarkable opportunities and complex challenges. At the forefront of this evolution is the United States, a global leader in innovation and technology, significantly bolstered by the contributions of immigrants.

Among these immigrants, those from India have played a particularly critical role, bringing fresh perspectives, innovative ideas, and approaches that have been instrumental in maintaining the U.S.’s technological dominance. This trend, rooted in a history of immigrant-driven innovation dating back to the 1800s, continues to be a cornerstone of America’s global leadership.

The intersection of digital transformation, immigration, and technological innovation in the United States offers a profound and multi-faceted area for analysis. As the U.S. continues to assert its leadership in global technology, understanding the roles of immigrants, emerging trends, and the ethical implications of these developments is crucial for navigating the future.

TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS

One of the most significant emerging trends in technology is the rise of generative AI. Tools like GPT-4 have the potential to revolutionise industries ranging from marketing to healthcare. There is a growing recognition that while general-purpose AI tools are valu-

Immigrants have long been the lifeblood of American innovation, particularly in the technology sector. This trend is especially pronounced among immigrants from India, who have contributed disproportionately to the U.S.’s technological advancements.

able, niche applications that address specific sector needs are likely to be the most successful. For example, AI tools designed for video marketing or customer service can provide more tailored and effective solutions than broader AI platforms. While major companies will likely dominate general-purpose AI, startups have an opportunity to succeed by focusing on niche problems.

Emerging trends in AI include the development of more efficient models and edge computing, where processing is done locally rather than in large, centralised data centres. This approach reduces the environmental footprint of AI operations and addresses concerns about the energy consumption of large AI models. The ethical implications of AI are also a significant concern. AI is increasingly viewed as a tool to enhance human capabilities rather than replace them. Data privacy and ethical AI issues are becoming increasingly important as these technologies become more widespread. The debate over AI ownership and regulation is ongoing. There is a growing recognition that the U.S. and its allies should lead AI innovation rather than countries like China and Russia. This involves policy, technology, and legal considerations.

Ms. Mercedes Soria, a member of the Forbes Technology Council and voted as the most influential woman in Silicon Valley, while speaking at a Synergia Foundation Forum, stated that the U.S. is leading efforts to establish regulations for AI, like those in the pharmaceutical industry. These regulations aim to ensure that AI development is safe, ethical, and beneficial to society. Issues such as data privacy, algorithmic bias, and the potential for AI to be used in harmful ways are being closely monitored. The goal is to create a regulatory framework that encourages innovation while protecting individuals and society from potential risks.

Cybersecurity is another critical area of focus. As digital transformation accelerates, the risk of cyberattacks increases. Tools are under development to detect and respond to cyber threats, functioning like an active immune system. These tools detect breaches and help fix vulnerabilities, ensuring systems remain secure. Enterprise solutions are recommended for organisations handling sensitive data. These solutions allow AI models to be used on local servers or secure cloud environments, ensuring data is not exposed or used for unintended purposes.

The shift to enterprise solutions was prompted by incidents like the one with Samsung, where proprietary code was inadvertently exposed. As a result, companies are increasingly opting for enterprise licenses to protect their data and intellectual property. Major providers like Google and Microsoft offer these options, allowing companies to leverage AI while maintaining control over their data.

DIVERSITY AND INNOVATION

The United States’ pre-eminence in the global technology arena is deeply intertwined with its history of immigration. From the 1800s to today, immigrants have driven the country’s technological advancements, contributing to groundbreaking developments in electricity, telecommunications, and beyond.

Children of immigrant parents, who often face unique challenges, have nonetheless leveraged their diverse backgrounds to create new opportunities, ensuring that the U.S. remains at the forefront of global technological innovation.

Today, the contributions of Indian immigrants stand out as they continue to inject fresh ideas and innovative solutions that reinforce the U.S.’s position as a global technology leader. As the U.S. and India continue to strengthen their collaborative efforts, particularly in the realm of emerging technologies such as generative AI, this partnership will be crucial in maintaining a competitive edge.

IMMIGRATION: LIFEBLOOD OF INNOVATION

Immigrants have long been the lifeblood of American innovation, particularly in the technology sector. This trend is especially pronounced among immigrants from India, who have contributed disproportionately to the U.S.’s technological advancements. Leaders like Sundar Pichai, Elon Musk, and Satya Nadella exemplify immigrant innovators’ profound impact on the global stage.

Sundar Pichai’s leadership at Google has been transformative. Under his guidance, Google has expanded its technological horizons, pioneering advancements in AI, cloud computing, and search algorithms. Pichai’s ability to navigate the complex landscape of global technology while maintaining a focus on innovation and ethical considerations has been a significant factor in Google’s success. His work has enhanced Google’s market position and set new standards for the tech industry.

Elon Musk, another immigrant success story, has revolutionised multiple industries through his visionary approach to technology. Tesla’s electric vehicles and SpaceX’s advancements in space exploration have challenged the status quo and pushed

the boundaries of what is possible. Musk’s relentless pursuit of innovation and willingness to take risks has made him one of the most influential figures in technology. His work exemplifies the disruptive innovation that is only possible when diverse perspectives are brought to bear on complex challenges.

in technology are essential in ensuring that the industry benefits from the full spectrum of available talent.

Various programs and initiatives aim to support women in technology, providing mentorship, training, and networking opportunities crucial for their success. These efforts are about fairness and equality and tapping into a broader pool of talent that can drive innovation. Research has consistently shown that diverse teams are more innovative and effective at problem-solving. By increasing the representation of women in STEM, the U.S. can enhance its ability to innovate and compete on a global scale.

Satya Nadella’s impact on Microsoft has been equally profound. Since taking the helm, Nadella has revitalised the company by focusing on cloud computing, AI, and strategic acquisitions. His leadership has transformed Microsoft into a leader in digital transformation, emphasising collaboration, inclusivity, and a forward-thinking approach to technology. Nadella’s ability to steer Microsoft through a rapidly changing technological landscape while focusing on innovation and ethical considerations has been a key factor in the company’s continued success.

These leaders are not anomalies but rather part of a broader trend of immigrant-driven innovation in the U.S. Immigrants are statistically more likely to start businesses, hold patents, and contribute to significant technological advancements than their native-born counterparts. This trend is a testament to the entrepreneurial spirit of immigrants and the unique perspectives and approaches they bring to problem-solving. Their diverse backgrounds enable them to see challenges and opportunities in ways others might not, leading to innovative solutions that drive progress.

The success of immigrant leaders also highlights the importance of maintaining an inclusive and supportive environment for all innovators. The children of immigrant parents, who often face unique challenges as they navigate multiple cultural identities, have also made significant contributions to the U.S. technology sector. Their ability to overcome obstacles and leverage their diverse backgrounds to create new opportunities is a testament to the strength of diversity in driving innovation. As the U.S. continues attracting global talent, ensuring these individuals have the support and resources they need to succeed is crucial.

WOMEN IN THE TECH WORLD

Meanwhile, the increasing presence of women in STEM fields, though still an area requiring further progress, is vital to the continued advancement of the technology sector. Initiatives designed to support women in technology are gaining momentum, contributing to the diversity and dynamism necessary for sustained innovation. The rise of women in STEM is another critical dimension of the U.S.’s technological leadership.

While the gender gap in technology remains significant, efforts to close this gap are gaining traction. Women are underrepresented in STEM fields, particularly in leadership roles, but various programs are working to change this dynamic. Initiatives that provide mentorship, training, and networking opportunities for women

The role of women in technology is also essential from a societal perspective. As technology continues to shape every aspect of our lives, women must have a voice in developing and deploying new technologies. This ensures that the needs and perspectives of a broader range of people are considered, leading to more inclusive and effective solutions.

The increasing presence of women in STEM is also helping to challenge and change the tech industry’s culture. Traditionally male-dominated, the tech industry has often been criticised for lacking diversity and inclusivity.

However, as more women enter the field and rise to leadership positions, they are helping to create a more inclusive and supportive environment for all. This cultural shift is crucial for attracting and retaining diverse talent, which in turn drives innovation and competitiveness.

The emphasis on data privacy, ethical AI, and cybersecurity underscores the importance of these trends in shaping the future of the tech industry, where niche applications and robust security measures will be paramount.

U.S. is leading the establishment of AI regulations similar to those in the pharmaceutical industry to ensure AI development is safe, ethical, and beneficial, while also emphasizing the importance of cybersecurity and enterprise solutions to protect sensitive data and intellectual property.

It is increasingly being felt that innovation is no longer a closed-door activity; a collaborative effort could lead to a much speedier and more affordable result. The search for the COVID-19 vaccine is a good example.

The U.S. has shown that the most astounding examples of tech breakthroughs are often triggered in the private industry, with a greater propensity for risk-taking. India must encourage this culture.

Synergia Takeaways

IS THE COMBAT HELICOPTER PASSÉ?

The Russia- Ukraine theatre has not been a good playground for armed helicopters. What Next?

AAVM Ajay Shukla VM(G) (Retd) is the Strategic Technology Advisor, Synergia Foundation.

s soon as the war between Russia and Ukraine began to unfold, practitioners and votaries of air power in the rotary domain were suddenly faced with uncomfortable videos showing armed helicopters in the combat zone falling like nine pins. The accompanying blogs and comments were unsparing and outright embarrassing for the ‘chopper guys’. The verdict appeared to be clear—the helicopter in a high-threat zone had outlived its utility.

A REVISIT NEEDED?

In contrast, this was also the period when the Indian MoD issued a Request for Proposal (RFP) to procure 156 Light Combat Helicopters (LCH) ‘Prachand’ from HAL, budgeted at Rs 45,000 crore. These are slated to complement the existing AH-64E Apache, Mi-35s and the large fleet of ALH WSI ‘Rudra’.

Additionally, the renewed vigour with which HAL began to pursue the Indian Multi Role Helicopter (IMRH) programme also gained much traction in 2022. The six prototypes for this ambitious project for 314 helicopters (including in the armed role) itself has a budget of Rs 10,000 crore.

The latest laboratory for testing the toys of modern-day warfare—the Russia Ukraine warzone— appeared to be telling us to keep the rotorcraft shielded from the perils that lurk therein, and here we were go-

A close examination leads us to certain probable causatives for the disproportionate armed helicopter losses by the Russians in the initial phases of the conflict. These relate to over reliance on hover mode of target engagement, flying high, under-estimation of the enemy AD environment, and undertaking operations from forward bases close to enemy lines.

ing full throttle on their mega acquisition programmes. While manned armed helicopter programmes worth billions of dollars are being pursued world- wide, there were unnerving reports of shelving of helicopters programmes too, including the cancellation of the US Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft (FARA) project, and scrapping of Japan’s programme to replace its Bell AH-1 Cobra, with plans to substitute them with a combination of “attack/utility,” “miniature attack,” and “surveillance” drones. Clearly, something was amiss.

Some of the amiss pieces in this puzzle, though, appeared to be gradually falling in place as the war in Ukraine has progressed. While the last word on the lessons from this conflict is yet to be written, there are fair indicators now on what may have transpired with the armed helicopter in this warzone.

The term ‘armed helicopters’ here refers in general to all helicopters being employed in a conflict scenario possessing offensive capabilities.

ARMED HELICOPTER ROLES

Modern armed helicopters are capable of performing a variety of roles in the warzone. These include Battlefield Air Strikes (BAS), which involves air actions against enemy targets in close vicinity of own ground forces. Their ability to hover and manoeuvre at low altitudes allows them to deliver accurate firepower, including anti-armour. These time sensitive missions require joint planning and have to cater to enemy AD threat, communication jamming etc.

Armed helicopters also undertake armed reconnaissance and serve as protection escorts to other rotary wing aircraft engaged in Special Heliborne Operations (SHBO) and Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR) including casualty evacuation. Complemented by advanced sensors and communication suites, they are capable of robust real-time ISR.

HIGH NUMBER OF HELICOPTER LOSSES

So what happened to armed helicopters in the Russia Ukraine theatre? By all accounts, this has not been a good playground for them, at least in its initial phases. Russia has used the Mi-24/35 Hinds, the Ka-28 Havoc, the single seat Ka-50 Black Shark, and the twin seat Kamov Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters.

The much vaunted Ka-52 made more news than others and has reportedly suffered one-third attrition to its fleet of about 100 machines. While this was indeed alarming, it would be useful to get a sense of the quantum of attrition in other previous conflicts.

During the Vietnam War (1955-75), The U.S. lost more than 5000 helicopters, which was more than half of the fleet inducted in the theatre. During the Afghanistan War (1979-89), more than 300 Soviet helicopter losses were reported, including about 75 formidable Mi-24 Hinds. In Operation Desert Storm (1991), Coalition forces lost 23 helicopters. In the Second Gulf War (2003-11), total US helicopter losses amounted to 130, with 27 of these being the AH-64 Apaches. Not all of these losses took place due to enemy action; a signif-

icant number were destroyed on the ground, or were lost due to accidents, inclement weather, mechanical failures and friendly fire.

ARMED HELICOPTER VS AIR DEFENCE SYSTEMS

Modern armed helicopters are sophisticated platforms, very expensive to acquire, maintain, and operate, making them valuable targets for relatively inexpensive countermeasures, such as MANPADS. It becomes financially more viable for adversaries to invest in large numbers of MANPADS to counter helicopters.

Certain AD systems Ukraine has employed stand out due to their impact. Among the various Ukrainian MANPADS, the Stinger (range 4.8 km) with its portability and ease of use, and the Piorun system (range 6.5 km) with its enhanced seeker, have been the most effective.

The anti-tank laser-guided Stugna-P (range 5 km) has proven effective against hovering helicopters too. Among the Short-Range AD systems, UK’s Starstreak (range 7 km) has made a big impact. The Buk-M1 Medium-Range AD system (range 30 km) has been effective against high flying Russian helicopters. While primarily a gun-based system, the Gepard (range 4 km) too has been highly effective in countering low-flying helicopters using its radar-guided twin 35mm cannons.

PROBABLE CAUSATIVES FOR LOSSES

A close examination leads us to certain probable causatives for the disproportionate armed helicopter losses by the Russians in the initial phases of the conflict. These relate to over reliance on hover mode of target engagement, flying high, under-estimation of the enemy AD environment, and undertaking operations from forward bases close to enemy lines.

Helicopters in high threat areas fly NoE (Nap of the Earth) hugging the ground, thus denying reaction time to the enemy to take a shot. If one flies any higher, then not only the MANPAD operator, but also the small arms

bearing foot soldier would get his targeting solutions. Many videos showed Ka-52s being brought down while flying high. Similarly, while the Ka-52 are perfectly capable of firing on the move, they were seen as frequently doing so while at hover, and were shot down using even anti-tank missiles like Stugna.

Why would the Russian pilots fly in such a manner? Perhaps some answer can be found in leafing through TC 7-100.2, a US Army training circular available on open source that provides details on how the U.S. forces should expect the Russians to engage in combat. It indicates that hovering fire is a well-established practice in the Russian SOP for armed helicopter pilots to have better firing accuracies.

However, the conjoined presumption also was that while doing so they would be protected from enemy action by their own AD. This ‘vital element of some degree of favourable air situation’ in the battlefield was clearly missing owing to massive infusion of AD arsenal and missiles from the west to Ukraine, and it had become a contest between near peers.

The Hostomel and Chornobaivka operations during the early stages of the war highlight the challenges of using armed helicopters from forward operating bases. At Hostomel, Russian Ka-52s played a key role in providing fire support during the aggressive takeover of the airport, aided by Russian EW.

However, the influx of Western-supplied ATGMs and MANPADS significantly increased Russian helicopter losses, undermining their strategy. In Chornobaivka, poor basing decisions led to heavy helicopter losses due to Ukrainian artillery targeting helicopters stationed at this forward base, forcing the Russians to eventually withdraw.

Helicopters may be used, as exemplified by the U.S. in the opening hours of Operation Desert Storm to take out enemy AD radars and for EW. But that is feasible when you attrite an unequal adversary such as Iraq. Between near peers (Russia and Ukraine), the armed helicopters are not the ‘Day One” options. They can indulge in their classical roles only post adequate suppression of enemy AD. Else, there has to be a recalibration of what is achievable, and modifications are warranted. This is what transpired eventually in this war.

TECHNOLOGICAL ADAPTATIONS FOR SURVIVABILITY

There have been logical doubts therefore, on the dogmatic approach and training status of Russian helicopter pilots. Posers have been raised whether they lacked operational and tactical autonomy to deviate from doctrine even when it became clear that the doctrine was not working.

Despite these doctrinal underpinnings, it is important to realise that the problem lies in the gap between doctrine and reality, as doctrine presumes sufficient protective measures that may not always be present on the battlefield.

Technological adaptations to enhance the survivability of armed helicopters include advanced EW systems such as radar and infrared jammers, self-protection systems that detect and intercept incoming missiles with countermeasures like flares and chaff, Missile Approach & Warning Systems (MAWS) and Laser Warning Systems (LWS).

Directional Infrared Counter-Measure (DIRCM) systems use lasers to confuse the infrared seekers of incoming missiles, offering a more reliable defence against heat-seeking missiles compared to traditional flares. These systems have shown some success in this war, with reports of missiles being deflected or losing track of their targets.

Additionally, Millimetre Wave fire-control radars for targeting, early warning and situational awareness systems for real-time data sharing, data-link-enabled missiles and helmet-mounted displays allow pilots to detect threats early and manoeuvre effectively.

Armour protection and stealth measures too enhance survivability. However, the extent to which they can be incorporated in armed helicopters remains shrouded in controversy.

Improved light weight armour using modern composite materials to shield vital helicopter components, and damage-tolerant rotor blades that do not disintegrate when hit, enhance resilience against ground fire. However, unlike a tank, weight considerations severely limit how much armour protection can be incorporated

on helicopters. Stealth technology is costly and focusses on reducing radar, infrared, and acoustic signatures. Innovations include Radar-Absorbing Materials (RAM), faceted designs that deflect radar waves, quieter rotors, low-observable coatings, advanced avionics, and heat-reducing engine exhaust systems to minimize infrared visibility.

However, the usefulness of stealth in helicopters is debatable. In 2004, the U.S. had shelved its ambitious RAH-66 Comanche stealth reconnaissance and attack helicopter programme. Critics argue that stealth is less effective on helicopters operating close to the ground and at slower speeds. Additionally, networked operations and drones can reduce reliance on manned stealth platforms. Stealth features can still be useful in specific missions, such as deep-strike operations behind enemy lines, where avoiding detection is critical. Current trends suggest a hybrid approach, combining some stealth elements with other survivability features.

There has been a push to equip helicopters with longer-range stand-off munitions and more sophisticated countermeasures. Many countries, including India, have procured the Israeli Spike Non Line of Sight (NLOS) missiles, which extends the effective range of the armed helicopters to about 30 km, beyond the reach of most short-range AD systems.

However, this is not a panacea for all situations. Stand-off weapons are less effective in close support scenarios, where helicopters need to operate within range of enemy defences. Additionally, the cost of advanced munitions such as Spike and the helicopters themselves raises questions about their cost-effectiveness in face of cheaper, ground-based alternatives, such as truck-mounted missile systems.

Directional Infrared Counter-Measure (DIRCM) and other countermeasures too are not fool-proof, and may be effective against certain types of older, less sophisticated missiles only. UK’s 7 km range Starstreak missile available with the Ukrainians with its Mach 3 speed makes it difficult for enemy aircraft to evade. Its unique triple-dart warhead increases the chance of a hit, while its laser-guided system ensures precision targeting. Unlike the IR seeker heads of most other MANPADs, this is much less prone to IR jamming. Hence, tactical options too have to be found to mitigate the threats.

TACTICAL ADAPTATIONS AND ROLE MODIFICATIONS

A commonly adapted procedure observed has been ‘toss rocketry,’ a form of rocket slinging in a ballistic trajectory, aimed at doubling the 2 km range of the unguided rockets to 4 km, thus staying that much away from the enemy AD. Effectiveness of this method has been questioned, as it doubles the Circular Error Probable (CEP) and rocket dispersion.

Both sides have adapted their tactics. Russia has improved air-ground coordination, relying on artillery and

missile strikes to suppress AD before helicopters enter contested zones. They have markedly increased EW efforts to jam Ukrainian AD systems, adopting more cautious flight paths to avoid MANPADs, and are relying now more on ‘fire on move’ targeting than in hover mode, avoiding flying high in active combat zones and forsaking advanced helicopter basing locations close to enemy lines. Ukraine has continued to enhance its AD networks, and improved intelligence-sharing to anticipate enemy helicopter operations. All these have made a visible change to the helicopter attrition levels and the negative social media buzz has gradually ebbed.

However, to the discerning military watchers, it has also remained clear that the vulnerability of the helicopter in peer combatant situations will remain high. Hence, a re-evaluation of helicopter roles too became necessary.

The basic raison d’etre for these machines that made them indispensable, such as vertical envelopment and rapid response, became too risky to execute in highthreat environments. There has been a shift away from deep penetration and close air support missions to stand-off roles and indirect fire missions. Thus armed helicopters are still able to contribute without incurring heavy losses. Of course, in asymmetrical warfare and specialized missions, they hold the sway in providing rapid fire support, troop transportation, and reconnaissance missions. Clearly, their mobility and flexibility cannot be easily replaced by other platforms yet.

Reducing detectability of helicopters and improving their ability to counteract EW measures would help mitigate some of the vulnerabilities exposed in Ukraine. Additionally, integrating UAVs with helicopter operations could provide a safer and more effective way to conduct reconnaissance and strike missions without exposing manned aircraft to undue risk on the frontlines.

CONCLUSION

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war offers valuable lessons that highlight both the vulnerabilities and enduring value of helicopters in contemporary conflicts. Much like the tank that has been written off many times in the past, and yet continues to be in the reckoning, the helicopter would continue to find its place in armed conflicts.

The lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war underscore the need for adaptation, both in terms of technology and tactics. Each of these conflicts also serve as a chastening exercise, forcing the military planners and industry to sit up, take notice and fast track the required changes.

The future of helicopters lies not in obsolescence but in their ability to adapt to the demands of modern and future battlefields. These evolutionary adaptations would continue to secure a doctrinal place for the armed helicopters in battlefields and assure us that the heavy investments in them are justified.

INDIA AND CANADA IN A CHANGING WORLD

India and Canada have so many complementary attributes that make a dispute that much more surprising.

This article is based on the a Synergia Foundation Forum with Canadian diplomats led by High Commissioner Cameron Mackay.

We’re living in this tremendous era of relentlessly accelerating change. What is happening now is like the shifting of tectonic plates. Over the last decades, the United Kingdom left the European Union-Brexit finally happened; the Taliban 2.0 is in power in Kabul, and China has grown from strength to strength.

However, with all that impressive economic growth under President Xi, there is a much more aggressive posture regarding its territorial ambitions. Donald Trump, of course, has reshaped politics in the United States of America; he aspires for a second term this November. Prime Minister Modi and his BJP have just begun their third term and are reshaping India in all kinds of ways, especially from an economic point of view. India’s political and social change will also differ when he finishes the third term.

The economic consequences of COVID-19 are far from over yet. This is nowhere more apparent than in Canada, where economists are struggling to understand its impact on out-of-control prices in the housing market, pressure on interest rates, and high inflation. Consumer behaviour has changed quite dramatically.

The same is true in the U.S. and Europe but less so in India. The so-called global North is still seeing the consequences of COVID-19’s impacts on labour markets and how we live and work.

A dispassionate appraisal of the two countries would reveal how deeply complementary both are- complimentary economies, deeply intertwined populations and the history of democracy. Canada is one of the oldest democracies in the world; it has been voting since the 1700s. India is the world’s largest democracy. There are many shared values, and in the long run, the strategic interests of both are intertwined.

Human-driven climate change will change the way we live. We should also remember the unprecedented biodiversity loss. Scientists say they cannot measure a time when there has been so much human-driven loss of biodiversity and plant-animal life.

Technological change has been overtaking our preparations to confront it; smartphones are portable surveillance devices relentlessly following our footsteps everywhere.

The Internet keeps us under constant surveillance, and our privacy is arguably at risk more than ever. We are so dependent on technology that it puts us at great risk of cyber-attacks. With fully developed artificial intelligence and machine learning, quantum computing is a whole new world of risk for cybersecurity.

OLD WORLD HAS CHANGED

To navigate through these turbulent waters, nations have relied largely on the multilateral system built by what were then the great powers of the day, with the active assistance of countries like Canada.

The systems built after the Second World War included the United Nations, along with the UN Security Council and all the specialised agencies of the United Nations, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade that eventually became the World Trade Organization.

To be fair, any economist or political scientist will look back and say that despite all their failings and their weaknesses and the pressures of the Cold War, at that time, they helped to ensure decades of a largely peaceful planet.

Economic growth surged through that period, particularly because trade was opened and businesses went global. There were down sides and risks, but overall, it was very pos itive.

However, those organisations need to be more fit for the purpose; they no longer repre sent the world as it is today. The UNSC is lopsided, with big countries like India out of it. The WTO has been eviscerated and effectively no longer functions.

welcomed in Canada for over a hundred years, now making up 5 per cent of the Canadian population (2 million out of 40 million), and successful in every walk of life-from film and music and entertainment to academia, to medicine to business and politics as well as premiers of provinces and cabinet ministers.

The Canadian High Commission in Delhi processes nearly 20,000 visas a week! It shows the scale of people-to-people movement, ferried by 25 to 35 direct flights a week between two countries on opposite sides of the planet. And air travel and humanity’s movement are growing. Air Canada announced new flights in October, and Air India will soon follow suit. Over 400,000 Indian students seek higher education in Canada.

The Business-to-Business relationship is also flourishing, with more than $140 billion in bilateral commercial relationships led by $95 billion in Canadian investment in India.

This includes well-known brands like the Canadian pension plans, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Ontario Teachers, and the Quebec Pension Plan. To give a concrete example, the ring road encircling New Delhi is mainly owned by the pension plan of the province of Quebec!

We are moving into a new world of protectionism where the U.S. and others can take protectionist policies with little fear of retaliation, jacking up tariffs and banning trade or exports.

Middle powers need great powers to get along, and we need great powers to be constrained by rules. The law of the jungle does not work in international relations. This is especially an anathema for Canada, which likes to curate its foreign policy to work with its friends, including collective defence, trade, UN rules, etc.

INDIA AND CANADA

A dispassionate appraisal of the two countries would reveal how deeply complementary both arecomplimentary economies, deeply intertwined populations and the history of democracy.

Canada is one of the oldest democracies in the world; it has been voting since the 1700s. India is the world’s largest democracy. There are many shared values, and in the long run, the strategic interests of both are intertwined. People-to-People, Indians have been

The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board has invested in the largest solar farm in India. Brookfield Asset Management is perhaps the largest private-sector landlord in India; it owns commercial real estate, shopping malls, office towers, the Leland Palace hotel chain, and Fairfax Financial is the majority holder of the capital behind Bangalore’s spanking new T2 Terminal. Canada is a trusted supplier of uranium to India.

The business ties are, of course, mutually advantageous for both sides. More than 600 Canadian companies have an established presence in India, and more than 100 Indian companies employ thousands of Ca-

High Commissioner of Cannada in India

HE CAMERON MACKAY

two research stations. The science and technology and research and development collaboration go back decades with high levels of trust and mutual advantages.

Of course, there are strong irritants. There is strong support for the Khalistan Movement amongst a small group of the Sikh diaspora in Canada. The Air India Kanishaka bombing still rankles Indians who lost many innocent friends and relatives.

The Diplomatic spat between India and Canada that began last September has been widely covered in the Indian media. The case at the heart of the dispute has gone to trial in Canada, and its outcome/ revelation may cause more road bumps in the relationship between the two countries.

As per the view of the Canadian government, “And with a trial, it’s completely out of the hands of the government now, complete bifurcation of now. It’s in the hands of the judiciary—defence attorneys, prosecution, police, etc.”

THE WAY AHEAD

In diplomacy, especially in a relationship like this, it is important to be as calm, cool, and collected as possible. Responding emotionally and angrily when sensitive things happen rarely serves the long-term interest.

Of course, there will be politics on both sides- politicians need to be seen as responsive to the most vocal part of the population.

We need to be calm, think ahead, and have dialogue all the time. It can be either official dialogue or unofficial and quiet. Negotiating in the media never helps.

Technology is, in a way, the glue that binds both countries together. India’s GDP per capita today and its growth trajectory are identical to China’s 15 years ago. One only has to look at China and how much China has changed the world in the last 15 years for outsiders to understand what is happening in India today and where it is headed.

‘‘

I don’t think anybody at the time could have imagined that India would be where it is today. The importance of that here is in South India, where we have a lot of Canadian investment.

Around 650 plus companies

have invested in India and have a presence here, that presence is overwhelmingly in the country’s south. And that, I think, says a lot about India: a level of development in the central communities and talent in the South. So we will keep supporting those companies and those who have invested and will invest in other parts of India.

JENNIFER DAUBENY

Minister (Commercial), High Commission of Canada, New Delhi

CAN INDIA AFFORD PROTECTIONISM?

India’s recent efforts at Protectionism may not solve its trade concerns.

Tarini Dhar Prabhu, Research Associate in Synergia Foundation

In his seminal 2017 paper, “Protectionism: This Good Bad Word,” published by the European Scientific Journal, Gabriel Anibal Monzon, Technical Secretary of the Parliamentary Confederation of the Americas, University of Flores, Argentina, tries to trace the roots of economic Protectionism.

According to him, the controversy about the origin of economic Protectionism has been generalized since the emergence of the international trading system. Subsequently, this is with the advent of the concept of country. Also, it is closely linked to Mercantilism. As a main reference, it provoked the general and erroneous idea that the natural thing is Liberalism.

From the origin of the tribal economies, a concept of necessity and opportunity existed. Inside the tribe, the needs were solved in solidarity. When the absence of any element could be provided by another tribe, an exchange (barter) system based on Protectionism was generated. As a result, the tribes sought what they lacked and traded what was left over. That way, no one could think of putting aside what he needed to deliver for something he did not. When any ‘stranger’ wishes to appropriate something necessary for him and not surplus on the other side, disputes tend to arise. Therefore, this has not changed beyond the years and forms.

The adherents to liberal economic thought state that there must be non-intervention of the State; any protectionist measure is unnatural and will only have

While India’s recent tariff hikes aim to boost local production, they may not be the answer to trade concerns, and there may also be a fallout. India’s Protectionism could cost it the chance to participate in important global supply chains such as those for smartphones and consumer electronics.

harmful effects. As a result, they try to explain that Protectionism involves tax increases, loss of jobs, price increases, debt crisis, and transfer of income in the hands of a few.

Today, India confronts the same dilemma. While India’s recent tariff hikes aim to boost local production, they may not be the answer to trade concerns, and there may also be a fallout. India’s Protectionism could cost it the chance to participate in important global supply chains such as those for smartphones and consumer electronics.

INDIA’S TARIFF TRAJECTORY

Since its economic liberalization in the 1990s, India has increasingly integrated with the global market. India’s openness to trade (measured as a trade-GDP ratio) increased from 14 per cent in 1991-2 to 41 per cent in 2017. India had been proceeding towards lower tariffs; the average tariff rate was reduced from 125 per cent in 1990-91 to 13 per cent in 2014-15. The export

basket diversified from traditional primary and agricultural products to value-added products like engineering goods and pharmaceuticals.

Since 2014, there have been 3200 tariff increases, with the most significant increase in 2018. After 2018, India has consistently raised its tariffs. These tariff increases have reflected the government’s Aatmanirbhar Bharat or Self-reliant India approach. Between 2017-19, tariffs increased for 2319 items. The average tariff value increased from 13.5 per cent in 2017 to 17.3 per cent in 2019. This average tariff rate level is significantly higher than in other Asian countries like China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh. Today, India’s tariffs, at an average of 18 per cent, are amongst the highest in the world.

India also refused to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) among Asia-Pacific countries signed in 2020.

The mobile phone industry presents a good example. Since 2018, New Delhi has departed from 20 years of trade openness and increased duties, notably on mobile phones and components like Printed Circuit Assembly Boards (PCBs) and display units.

The smartphone manufacturing boom mostly featured assembling finished goods. Most value addition and crucial parts were built in China, South Korea, Japan, or Vietnam. Even with booming smartphone exports, India was importing more electronics. Making flexible PCBs in India is 8-10 per cent more expensive.

The government subsidy on domestic production has not been sufficient to offset the cost gap between China and Vietnam. Meanwhile, China and Vietnam import electronic inputs duty-free. For India, a 10-15 per cent tariff is the norm. Mobile phone manufacturers have criticized the high tariffs on parts like circuit boards and chargers. This discourages companies look-

ing to de-risk supply chains away from China. Countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Mexico are lowering tariffs on phone components as they vie to attract phone manufacturers.

In the recently unveiled Budget, the basic customs duty (BCD) on mobile phones, PCBs and mobile chargers has been reduced to 15 per cent from 20 per cent. This has been hailed as a positive step supporting growth and competitiveness. However, the BCD on PCBs for certain telecom equipment has increased from 10 to 15 per cent.

The Budget has also provided exemptions from import duties for a range of input items, raw materials, and capital goods. The Budget further proposes to exempt 25 critical minerals from customs duties. Critical minerals like lithium, copper, cobalt, and rare earth elements are crucial for sectors like renewable energy, space, defence, telecom, and electronics. This will help India build processing and refining capacities and secure access to strategic and important sectors.

TARIFFS ACROSS SECTORS

Tariffs have been increased across a range of industries. There has been a significant tariff hike on sewn products, footwear, and textiles, over which India has a comparative advantage. While tariffs can be justified on the grounds of protecting an infant industry, tariffs in labour-intensive sectors where India has a competitive advantage point to a protectionist policy.

Tariffs have also increased significantly for steel and transport equipment where there is a domestic production base.

Capital goods have witnessed an inverted duty structure, meaning that tariffs on imported finished goods are lower than on raw materials used to make capital goods. This makes importing capital goods into

India cheaper than buying domestic goods. The domestic cost of production has gone up as tariffs target steel and electronic imports, mainly supplied by China. These goods are essential raw materials for the production of capital goods. China can produce them cheaper due to its economy of scale.

ARE TARIFFS THE SOLUTION?

The government justifies tariffs on the basis that they promote local manufacturing. However, in the long run, they can threaten the competitive strength of industries. Proponents of tariffs argue that they allow domestic industries to improve their exports. However, a tariff regime does not necessarily help; most imported goods are used to make export products.

While India has faced disadvantages with FTAs and the trade deficit, FTAs may not be entirely responsible for skewed exports. In the years when India was a more open economy - 2004-2005 and 2009-2010, exports were growing faster than GDP. Between 1995 and 2018, export growth was witnessed at an average of 13.4 per cent annually, the third highest in the world.

True, India’s growing trade deficit with three FTA partners and China is a cause for concern. However, this is not just due to increased merchandise imports but also because India’s merchandise exports are unable to access global markets.

Moreover, the increasing tariffs did not cause overall imports to fall. Import growth rates fell in the period 2013-2016 but again grew by 24 per cent and 39 per cent in subsequent years. Further, this decade has witnessed 8 per cent export growth compared to 17.3 per cent in the previous decade.

RETALIATORY TARIFFS

While increased tariffs have good intentions - encouraging local manufacturing - they lead to retaliatory measures by major trade partners such as the U.S. and UAE.

Retaliation on tariffs usually targets products where demand is more elastic. Countries raise tariffs in sectors where they are concerned about external dependence. For India, manufacturing materials like electronic items and metals are usually targeted for tariff hikes.

However, India’s trade partners raise tariffs in sectors where they face a trade deficit. For instance, the U.S. retaliated by raising tariffs on textiles, where it has a sizable trade deficit with India. Consequently, India’s textiles and clothing sector faced difficulties due to tariffs. Export growth fell due to retaliatory tariffs.

SEIZING THE MOMENT

The ongoing shift in global supply chains provides a rare opportunity as there is a stand-off between Beijing and Washington, and the pandemic disrupted traditional supply chains. India must seize the opportunity as

Nirmala Sitharaman , Union Minister of Finance, Govt of India

Artificial protection creating inefficiencies cannot be supported and we are conscious of that. And so there are calibrations being done in this policy … We do want to give some protection for some time. It is not permanent; we are not saying we will grow, but we will take 50 years to grow. If our production is not cost-competitive, we will have to face the music.’’

businesses diversify away from China. Restricting imports will cut India off from global supply chains and factory networks that require free movement of goods. A tariff regime hinders the free movement of goods and prevents industry from functioning smoothly.

High tariff barriers don’t just hurt producers and their exports but also hurt consumers by making goods more costly and encouraging inefficient domestic players. The protectionist policy may not work in the long run, given that a sizable lower-income class can’t afford higher-cost domestic goods.

It also increases business uncertainty and discourages investment, making it challenging for smaller companies to access finance.

Chinese imports have particularly been targeted due to border clashes and strained ties. This affects domestic producers because Chinese imports account for a substantial share of input items and capital goods. It reduces the competitive edge of goods in important sectors like electronics and pharmaceuticals.

Synergia Takeaways

India’s recent Protectionism has featured tariff raises across a range of industries, including those where it has a competitive advantage. It could reduce access to global markets and supply chains, harm the competitiveness of exports, hurt consumers, discourage investment, and lead to retaliatory tariffs. It could also prevent India from harnessing the opportunity to benefit from changing global supply chains.

India should encourage an open ecosystem to allow for global practices, technological exchange, and access to global markets. This will help it modernize its industry and overcome structural obstacles to growth, such as supply limitations and low productivity.

However, the recent Budget indicated a shift, which is a good sign.

NO LONGER HAUTE COUTURE!

China’s rich are shying away from displaying luxury spending amidst the economy’s struggles.

ASuchitra Padmanabhan is the Policy Research Associate at Synergia Foundation and has Post Graduate Degree in Social Policy & Planning from the London School of Economics.

s the world’s economy experiences a rough tumble, all eyes are on the Asian economies leading the pack. Over the past few months, Chinese GDP (gross domestic product) numbers showed that Chinese economic growth has slowed to 4.75 per cent from the rapid annual economic growth rate of seven to eight per cent during the 2010s.

The concern is that unless the Chinese government introduces major structural economic reforms encouraging domestic consumer spending, China could experience a Japanese-style lost economic decade.

This could have major consequences for the world economic outlook given that China is the world’s second-largest economy and, until recently, was the world’s main engine of economic growth and a leading consumer of international commodities. The ripple effect is already visible in most segments, and none is more visible than in the Luxury market.

A recent mega-wedding in one of India’s wealthiest families became a global spectacle for its unprecedented extravagance. In stark contrast, a different trend is emerging in neighbouring China, where the wealthy are now discreet about their luxurious lifestyles due to economic challenges. China’s affluent class is avoiding flashy purchases, putting strain on the nation’s luxury market.

A June report by Bain & Company highlights the growing trend of “luxury shame” in China, affecting the elite and the middle class. While the wealthy fear appearing extravagant, the middle-class steers clear of aspirational spending.

SIGNS OF TROUBLE

The root cause of China’s present economic problems is the highly unbalanced economic model that it has pursued over the past 30 years. China excessively relied on investment in general and housing investment in particular to drive economic growth, but it also became overly dependent on exports and a steady supply of cheap labour from its agricultural sector. Its poor demographics, the troubling state of its local government’s finances, and souring trade relations with the United States cast a further dark cloud over China’s longer-run economic growth prospects.

In response to the crumbling of the real estate sector, the central government is planning two new initiatives. The first plan is to buy distressed projects from private developers, convert them into homes, and then rent or sell the homes to consumers.

The second programme will have the government build more subsidized housing rather than leave the task to private developers. However, this plan will cost about $1.4 trillion over the next five years, a problem for a country already deep in debt.

Tensions with the United States are the top external challenge for China’s economic recovery in 2024, but not the only one. Complex global supply chain disruptions pose risks to Chinese exporters already operating on thin profit margins. The Red Sea crisis has disrupted the main shipping route between Asia and Europe, causing delays and raising shipping costs, lowering the profitability of Chinese exporters. The Suez Canal is a primary route for China’s westward goods shipments, including around 60 per cent of its exports to Europe. A prolonged Red Sea shipping crisis would pile pressure on Chinese exporters and challenge the Chinese economy, which is already battered by a looming property sector crisis, weak consumer demand, a shrinking population, and sluggish global growth.

In the long run, Chinese economic growth faces the challenges of the “4 Ds”: debt, demand, demographics, and decoupling (which some prefer to call “de-risking”). The first three Ds suggest that the Chinese economy is exposed to the risk of a Japan-style stagnation: Debt is soaring while growth is slowing down, and sluggish demand cannot catch up to overextended supply and adverse demographic trends. However, these risk factors do not necessarily suggest that the decline of the Chinese economy is inevitable. An improvement in the external environment combined with domestic structural reform can still boost the growth of the Chinese economy.

In addition, structural reform takes more than fiscal and monetary stimulus; it requires political incentive alignment that is hard to obtain.

SEEK, BUT DON’T FLAUNT!

China has done a bit of a yo-yo with the obvious display of wealth. Mao Zedong once persecuted the wealthy, but his successors adopted a different approach. China’s paramount leader, Deng Xiaoping, famously advocated “let some people get rich first” as he initiated market-oriented reforms. Today, a growing number of Chinese have accumulated vast wealth. But now the pendulum has swung back, with the government targeting extravagant displays of affluence.

Online influencers have become the state’s primary focus. These mostly young individuals, who once showcased their luxury goods to millions of followers, have recently faced the suspension of their social-media accounts by China’s internet regulators. Wang Hongquanxing, often referred to as “China’s Kim Kardashian, “ known for his extravagant lifestyle, reportedly refusing to leave his home without clothing, jewellery, and accessories worth at least 10 million yuan ($1.4 million) was reportedly banned from leading social media platforms in May.

This is not the first time influencers have drawn the government’s attention. In 2021, they were also targeted as part of Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign, an initiative aimed at curbing the excesses of the ultra-rich and reducing inequality. Wealthy individuals and companies were encouraged to contribute more to society, with the high-profile case of Jack Ma, China’s most famous billionaire, serving as a cautionary tale for other plutocrats.

A June report by Bain & Company highlights the growing trend of “luxury shame” in China, affecting the elite and the middle class. While the wealthy fear appearing extravagant, the middle-class steers clear of aspirational spending.

The concept of “luxury shame” first gained prominence in the U.S. after the 2008-09 financial crisis, when even those who could afford luxury items avoided displaying them. This trend is taking root in China as its GDP growth lags, and unemployment remains a critical issue.

The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) influence also plays a role in intensifying the “luxury shame” trend. The CCP has been actively promoting the concept of “common prosperity,” discouraging displays of wealth. This year, the CCP banned several online influencers known for their lavish lifestyles from Chinese social media platforms.

China’s economic uncertainty has led to a contraction in the luxury market, with affluent consumers

shifting their spending to more discreet and less conspicuous investments. In the first quarter of fiscal 2025, Burberry’s earnings report painted a stark picture of the shifting dynamics in the luxury market. Sales in the Asia Pacific region plummeted by 23 per cent, with Mainland China seeing a 21 per cent drop.

Meanwhile, luxury brands have been lowering their prices as unsold inventory accumulates. This shift likely stems less from the crackdown on influencers and more from the broader economic downturn, with Chinese consumers becoming more cautious and spending less on luxury items such as Balenciaga bags and Gucci wallets. Brands like Marc Jacobs, which offered over 50 per cent off on Tmall Luxury Pavilion, and Bottega Veneta, which promoted interest-free loans, are examples of luxury brands’ increasingly aggressive strategies to attract Chinese consumers. Consumer behaviour is shifting, with buyers increasingly seeking value for money rather than paying premium prices for foreign goods.

The luxury market in China, which doubled in size between 2019 and 2021, is now polarized, with top-tier brands like Louis Vuitton and Hermès maintaining price control and avoiding discounts. They fear these discounts may harm brand equity and do not guarantee inventory clearance.

Many Chinese shoppers are now choosing to make luxury purchases overseas, particularly in Japan, where a weak yen has made luxury goods more affordable. This shift in spending has further impacted luxury sales within China, with brands resorting to significant discounts to clear excess inventory.

Bain estimates that by 2023, around 30 per cent of Chinese luxury spending occurred outside of Mainland China, a sharp rebound from less than 10 per cent during the pandemic. Not surprisingly, Japan is enjoying a 6 per cent increase in sales, largely fuelled by tourists from China and other Asian countries rather than local buyers.

This pattern is not unique to Burberry; luxury giants like Richemont, Swatch Group, LVMH, and Kering have all reported strong growth in Japan compared to the rest of Asia. In March, Japan welcomed 3.1 million visitors, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. The devalued yen has played a crucial role, attracting travellers from Korea, Taiwan, China, and Singapore eager to purchase luxury goods at lower prices.

FUTURE PROSPECTS

Over the past three decades, China has demonstrated extraordinary economic performance, transforming from a low-income to an upper-middle-income nation. In 2022, China’s GDP reached $18.3 trillion, equating to 73 per cent of the United States’ GDP, significantly higher than the 7 per cent in 1990. Per capita income rose to approximately $13,000, 17 per cent of the U.S. figure, a substantial increase from under 2 per cent in 1990. In the last 15 years, China has been the primary driver of global economic growth, contributing 35 per cent to

global GDP growth, compared to the United States’ 27 per cent.

China achieved this without many traditional growth drivers, such as a robust financial system, strong institutional framework, market-oriented economy, or democratic governance. Despite domestic and global turbulence, the economy remained resilient until the COVID-19 pandemic.

Critics have long predicted an imminent economic collapse, citing China’s reliance on inefficient investments, especially in real estate, and rising domestic debt. However, while potential vulnerabilities exist, including unbalanced reforms, volatility in financial and property markets, and a shrinking labour force, a financial or economic collapse is not inevitable.

China’s growth has been fuelled mainly by investment, particularly in the public sector, which intensified after the 2008 global financial crisis. The Chinese government has since sought to rebalance the economy by reducing reliance on investment-heavy growth and increasing the role of household consumption and the services sector in GDP growth. Though progress has been uneven, significant strides have been made.

Looking ahead, China’s shrinking labour force, slowing productivity growth, and challenges in implementing the “dual circulation” strategy—aimed at boosting domestic demand and technological self-sufficiency—pose significant risks. External pressures, including geopolitical tensions and the need for foreign technology, further complicate the outlook.

China’s overall debt remains a concern, especially in the corporate and real estate sectors. Still, the likelihood of a systemic financial meltdown is low due to state control over major banks and corporations. However, market-oriented reforms must be carefully managed to avoid exacerbating volatility and inefficiencies. The government’s balancing act between market freedom and intervention continues to present complex challenges that, if mishandled, could have long-term consequences.

The government now grapples with several complex policy dilemmas: reducing debt while sustaining growth, cutting energy-intensive production while remaining reliant on heavy industry, enforcing financial discipline through markets while strengthening state control, addressing wealth inequality while depending on the private sector to generate wealth, and fostering private sector innovation while curbing the power of successful private enterprises.

In reconciling these contradictory objectives under the banner of market-oriented socialism, the government will likely encounter further missteps and challenges. Although the policy goals are sound, the approach could create short-term uncertainty and volatility, potentially weakening public support for necessary reforms to enhance long-term productivity and growth.

THE NEW OIL?

Lithium demand is set to rise in the long term, while supply constraints are not going away in a hurry.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

Like the 1880s, we are witnessing a second “scramble for Africa.” Africa has some of the richest deposits of this critical mineral used extensively in military and civil industries.

As green tech becomes more prevalent, demand for lithium has shot up exponentially (although it recently dropped). Countries and companies are scrambling to secure lithium sources, whether international or domestic. Not surprisingly, the quest to grab the biggest chunk of this rare mineral has various potential international ramifications.

Meanwhile, world oil demand is slowing, according to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) (June 2024).

WHY LITHIUM?

Lithium is one of the most important elements for the energy transition. Demand for lithium batteries surged with the invention of personal electronic devices like mobile phones and laptops. Not only do lithium batteries power most portable devices, but they are increasingly used to make electric vehicles (EVs).

As electric vehicles become more prevalent and countries take measures towards their carbon goals, lithium demand has grown exponentially and is set to grow further.

Lithium is the lightest metal, and its composition is ideal for building light but powerful batteries compared to heavier alternatives like nickel-cadmium and

Much of the demand for lithium comes from the EV market, which China leads; in 2022, China’s EV sales increased by a whopping 82 per cent and accounted for almost 60 per cent of global EV sales, exceeding the U.S and Scandinavian countries that were early adopters of EVs.

lead-acid batteries. For instance, a Tesla Model S battery has around 12 kg of lithium, and the grid storage would need much more lithium.

PRICE COMPARISON

It would be illuminating to observe how international lithium prices are giving stiff competition to global oil prices. Oil prices have increased, too, but that is mainly due to a return to normal demand after the pandemic and supply chain constraints on account of geopolitical conflicts. Moreover, Saudi Arabia, a leading nation of the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is determined to support oil prices through production cuts. Output in other places, such as Africa, the U.S., and Iran, has also been lower.

Lithium, too, witnessed a disrupted supply chain, but demand has grown exponentially. In other words, rising lithium prices are due to increasing demand, while higher oil prices are mainly due to supply constraints.

One major difference between oil and lithium is that the global economy does not have many alternatives when oil prices escalate. Aircraft, trucks, ships,

Susan Zou, VP at Rystad Energy, battery materials supply chain research

The global battery supply chain may find lithium in shortfall again, approaching the end of this decade.”

cars, and fertiliser plants continue to rely on oil, so the demand does not drastically fall in response to a price hike. However, for now, lithium users have other options and can even cancel projects. This means that even while demand for lithium will only grow, it may not quite become the new oil in terms of clout in the global economy.

Similarly, those who control the lion’s share of lithium supplies are not likely to exercise as much influence on the global economy as OPEC. However, their influence will grow as more machines go green.

Like oil, possession/ control of access to lithium supplies will be a powerful geopolitical weapon; the portends are already clearly visible. Mining is concentrated in a few countries - Australia, Chile and China account for 90 per cent of lithium production.

These three countries and Argentina host most of the economically viable reserves. Other countries like Bolivia possess lithium resources in lower concentrations, which is considered less economical.

This limited geographic distribution restricts the supply and contributes to high prices even though overall quantities may be abundant.

The supply chain constraints for lithium are not going away any time soon. Experts project a lithium supply deficit by 2030, increasing pressure to expand lithium production and processing.

Lithium prices recently plummeted due to oversupply from China and lagging EV adoption rates, triggering concerns about a lithium “bust” after a boom. However, lithium producers remain bullish on the mineral’s demand in the long term.

CHINA, THE FRONT RUNNER

Typically, Beijing grasped the nuances of controlling lithium supply more than a decade earlier and worked diligently to secure its supply chains. Today, China has a major stake in lithium mines, with mining rights in Africa, Australia, and Latin America. In terms of lithium production, around 65 per cent of lithium processing capacity is in China, followed by Chile (29 per cent).

Despite being the largest producer of lithium, Australia is just beginning to establish processing capacities and has relied mainly on China for processing.

Much of the demand for lithium comes from the EV market, which China leads; in 2022, China’s EV sales increased by a whopping 82 per cent and accounted for almost 60 per cent of global EV sales, exceeding the U.S and Scandinavian countries that were early adopters of EVs.

In 2023, almost 60 per cent of new electric car registrations were in China. China has invested heavily in EVs, which has enabled its EV boom and boosted demand for lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements.

The lithium vs. oil rivalry is also playing out in the auto industry as low-cost Chinese EVs threaten traditional car makers in global markets. These Chinese EVs benefit from generous government subsidies, enabling them to undercut rivals in the EU, U.S., and India. The

“Hei ho, hei ho, to the lithium mine we go.....

EU’s recent move to increase tariffs on Chinese EVs reflects this, as does the U.S. measure, which imposed prohibitive tariffs on Chinese EVs.

NOT SO GREEN?

Yet, lithium is not as green as it seems. For starters, lithium mining requires huge amounts of water. Extracting 1 ton of lithium requires 500,000 litres of water. Mining and processing lithium has an environmental impact; it risks polluting water, soil, and the atmosphere through harmful chemicals and gases released, thereby impacting the ecosystem.

Further, a 2021 study found that extracting lithium from brine can produce around 11 tons of carbon dioxide per ton of lithium while extracting lithium from spodumene ore releases around 37 tons of carbon dioxide per ton of lithium.

However, new extraction methods like Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) could have a smaller footprint and recycle the water used. DLE stands to make lithium more profitable as fracking did for oil. Extracting lithium from brine could almost double the lithium yield and deliver better project returns, encouraging further investment.

The overall benefit of lower emissions from EVs and other electric machines cannot be ignored. Recycling lithium waste could help mitigate the environmental burden of lithium extraction and processing through emissions savings, according to a study published in Oxford Academic.

INDIA IN THE SCRAMBLE

India has prioritised developing its lithium supply to support its green transition and reduce strategic vulnerabilities. This is important, considering that the nation currently depends on Chinese imports. The government is introducing liberalised policies and incentives to strengthen the supply chain.

The Ministry of Mines released a list of “critical minerals” that are defined as essential for economic development and national security, whose lack of availability could disrupt supply chains. Lithium is categorised as a “strategic mineral” with 100 per cent import dependence, posing a challenge. Lithium battery imports amounted to $2.8 billion in 2022-23.

The government has opened the gates for private companies to mine lithium, with reserves recently discovered in Jharkhand, Rajasthan and Jammu and Kashmir.

The government is also forging international partnerships to de-risk the supply chain, particularly from China. India has struck lithium agreements with Argentina and Australia.

The Budget 2024 proposes to exempt 25 critical minerals from customs duties. Critical minerals like lithium, copper, cobalt, and rare earth elements are crucial for sectors like renewable energy, space, defence, telecom, and electronics. This will help India build processing and refining capacities and secure access to strategic and important sectors.

Synergia Takeaways

Lithium is on its way to becoming the new oil in certain respects - the growing demand, restricted distribution of supplies, and global importance as countries propel towards a green transition.

However, it is not yet as pervasive in its use as oil and does not have the clout to influence the global economy as oil prices do.

That it has a future cannot be denied or ignored; countries like India must secure reliable lithium supplies to reduce strategic vulnerability and supply chain risks.

MELTING MOUNTAINS

As picturesque mountain landscapes collapse in a mass of debris, solutions are urgently needed to arrest this degradation.

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RESEARCH TEAM

Acommon perception amongst Indians is that landslides induced mass destruction is a calamity more confined to our Himalayan tract in the North. This belief was rudely dispelled when on the night of July 30th, heavy rains lashed the picturesque Wayanad belt of Kerala. While people slept peacefully in their homes, nature unleashed its most violent incarnation. Following heavy monsoon rains, the entire hillside melted into a landslide of unprecedented scale, obliterating from the face of the earth six villages. The catastrophic event resulted in the deaths of 392 people, with 273 injured and 180 still missing. The landslides wiped out homes, roads, and farmlands, leaving thousands of residents displaced and entire communities in ruins.

Not to be left out of the news focus, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh have been regularly reporting long swathes of roads being washed away by raging torrents and crumbling mountainsides under cloudbursts. This phenomenon has become an annual event in this part of the country.

ECOLOGICAL TREASURES

The Western Ghats in the South and the lofty Himalayas in the North are two critical mountain systems in India, well known for their ecological significance. The Western Ghats, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, are one of the world’s “hottest hotspots” of biological

The importance of these mountain ranges lies not only in their biodiversity but also in their roles in influencing weather patterns, particularly the Indian monsoon. The forests of the Western Ghats and the Himalayas are critical for the survival of several river systems that provide water to millions of people in the surrounding regions.

diversity, covering approximately 160,000 square kilometres and stretching about 1,600 kilometres parallel to the western coast of India. They are renowned for their rich biodiversity and distinct ecosystems, home to many endemic species of flora and fauna. On the other hand, the Himalayas are the youngest and tallest mountain range in the world, stretching across five countries and playing a crucial role in the climate and water systems of the Indian subcontinent. The importance of these mountain ranges lies not only in their biodiversity but also in their roles in influencing weather patterns, particularly the Indian monsoon. The forests of the Western Ghats and the Himalayas are critical for the survival of several river systems that provide water to millions of people in the surrounding regions.

A DELICATE ECOSYSTEM

However, these ecologically sensitive areas face numerous threats from human activities, including deforestation, mining, and unsustainable agricultural

practices. Landslides are a common natural disaster in both the Western Ghats and the Himalayas due to their steep terrain, heavy rainfall, and geological conditions. These events are typically triggered by heavy monsoon rains that saturate the soil, causing it to lose cohesion and slide downhill. The frequency of landslides in these regions has been increasing due to both natural and anthropogenic factors.

According to various reports, the Western Ghats and the Himalayas experience numerous landslides annually, significantly impacting both the environment and local communities. For example, between 1990 and 2010, over 1,000 landslides were recorded in the Western Ghats. Similarly, the Himalayan states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand have witnessed a series of devastating landslides in recent years, exacerbated by deforestation and unplanned infrastructure development.

Studying landslides in these regions is crucial for several reasons. It helps in understanding the underlying causes, assessing the risks, and implementing effective mitigation measures. Furthermore, it plays a vital role in environmental conservation, ensuring the safety of human settlements and maintaining the ecological balance of these biodiverse hotspots. Addressing these issues is essential for sustainable development and reducing the local population’s vulnerability to natural disasters. Himachal Pradesh experienced a devastating landslide in August 2021 in the Kinnaur district. The landslide, triggered by continuous heavy rains, resulted in the deaths of 28 people and left several others injured. The disaster caused significant damage to infrastructure, including roads and bridges, which hampered rescue operations.

The Wayanad and Kinnaur landslides underscore the critical need for sustainable development and effective disaster management strategies in these ecologically vulnerable regions. Improved infrastructure planning, reforestation, and community-based disaster preparedness programmes are essential to mitigate the impact of such natural disasters in the future.

DEVELOPMENT VS CONSERVATION

Infrastructure development in the Western Ghats and the Himalayas has significantly increased over the past few decades. The construction of resorts, roads, and highways has expanded to accommodate growing tourism and urbanisation. These developments, however, have contributed to destabilising the fragile ecosystems in these regions. The Western Ghats Ecology Expert Panel Report (WGEEP), also known as the Gadgil Commission after its chairman Madhav Gadgil, was submitted to the government in 2011 and faced criticism for being “ excessively environment-friendly and not in tune with the ground realities.”

The report highlights that between 1990 and 2010, there were over 1,000 recorded landslides in the region, leading to substantial loss of life and property. For instance, the Wayanad district alone witnessed a

Strong laws are in place to ensure the conservation of nature and ecological balance. However, the reason for the crisis is that none of these laws are being followed. People should be aware of such things. People should organise against this. The situation where people are afraid to even talk about environmental protection should change. People have the right to intervene in such matters by virtue of the existing three-tier panchayat laws.’’

series of devastating landslides in recent years, exacerbated by deforestation and unplanned infrastructure development. The Gadgil Report claims that extensive construction activities lead to steep cuts on slopes and destabilisation of soil, which are primary factors contributing to landslides. For instance, creating roads and highways involves removing vegetation, which holds the soil together. When the monsoon rains arrive, the exposed soil is easily washed away, leading to landslides. This applies equally to the network of highways being cut across the Himalayas in the hill states of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

In Wayanad, the rapid increase in resorts and other tourist infrastructure has exacerbated this issue. The construction processes often involve significant alterations to the natural landscape, including levelling hills and redirecting natural water flow. Such activities disturb the soil structure and reduce its stability, making the region more susceptible to landslides. The recent Wayanad landslide can be directly linked to these infrastructure developments. Unregulated construction on steep slopes without proper soil conservation measures led to the loosening of the soil, which, combined with heavy rains, triggered the landslide.

Similarly, in the Himalayan region, particularly in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, infrastructure development has also significantly increased the risk of landslides. In Himachal Pradesh, the construction of roads and hydroelectric projects has led to the destabilisation of slopes. The 2013 Kedarnath disaster in Uttarakhand caused massive landslides and flooding, partly attributed to unregulated construction and deforestation. Expanding infrastructure without adequate environmental safeguards has led to soil erosion and increased landslide vulnerability.

These case studies underscore the need for sustainable development practices in both the Western Ghats and the Himalayas to prevent further environmental degradation and ensure the safety of local communities. Implementing proper soil conservation measures, regulating construction activities, and integrating environmental impact assessments into development projects are crucial to sustainable development in these ecologically sensitive regions.

Madhav Gadgil, Fellow of the Third World Academy of Sciences (TWAS)

COMMERCIAL EXPLOITATION

Mining activities in both the Western Ghats and the Himalayas involve the extraction of various minerals such as iron ore, bauxite, and manganese. These minerals are economically significant, contributing to local and national economies. However, mining has severe environmental impacts, including deforestation, soil erosion, and water pollution.

The Gadgil Report emphasises that mining operations destabilise slopes, increasing the likelihood of landslides. Removing vegetation for mining exposes soil, making it susceptible to erosion. Moreover, creating mining pits allows for water infiltration, which weakens the structural integrity of the slopes. Similarly, in the Himalayan regions of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, mining activities have had detrimental effects on the environment and increased the risk of landslides. In Himachal Pradesh, mining minerals such as limestone and gypsum has led to significant deforestation and soil erosion.

The Chamba district, for instance, has seen increased landslide activity due to unregulated mining practices. In Uttarakhand, illegal sand mining along riverbanks has destabilised slopes and altered natural drainage patterns, contributing to landslides and flash floods.

These facts highlight the urgent need for strict regulation and sustainable mining practices within the Western Ghats and the Himalayas. Implementing effective measures to mitigate environmental damage is crucial to prevent future disasters and protect the fragile ecosystems of these regions. By adopting sustainable mining practices and enforcing stringent regulations, it is possible to balance economic development with environmental conservation, ensuring these ecologically sensitive areas’ long-term safety and stability.

INIMICAL AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES

Traditional agricultural practices in the Western Ghats and the Himalayas were diverse and sustainable, maintaining soil structure and stability.

However, the shift to modern agricultural practices has led to monoculture plantations, such as tea, coffee, and rubber in the Western Ghats, and apple and potato farming in the Himalayan regions of Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. These plantations, while economically beneficial, have had significant environmental impacts.

The Gadgil Report highlights that monoculture plantations lead to declining soil quality and biodiversity. The constant tilling and use of chemical fertilisers and pesticides reduce soil cohesion and increase erosion. The roots of monoculture crops are often shallow and less effective in binding the soil, making the land more susceptible to landslides, particularly during heavy rains. Furthermore, the widespread use of chemical fertilisers and pesticides has degraded soil health,

reducing its natural resilience. The chemicals disrupt the soil’s natural composition, leading to further destabilisation and increased runoff during rainfall. This runoff carries away the topsoil, which is crucial for maintaining soil fertility and structure.

In Wayanad, converting diverse agricultural systems to monocultures has exacerbated the risk of landslides. The recent landslide in the region can be partly attributed to these inimical agricultural practices, which have weakened the soil structure and increased vulnerability to natural disasters.

Similarly, the shift to monoculture apple orchards and extensive potato farming in the Himalayas has led to similar issues. These monocultures have replaced traditional mixed farming systems that maintained soil stability, resulting in increased soil erosion and landslide susceptibility.

For instance, in the Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh, the expansion of apple orchards on steep slopes without adequate soil conservation measures has significantly increased the risk of landslides. The excessive use of chemical fertilisers and pesticides in these areas has further degraded soil health and stability.

The Gadgil Report underscores the need to revert to more sustainable agricultural practices to protect the fragile ecosystems of the Western Ghats and the Himalayas. Promoting diverse and sustainable farming methods can enhance soil health, reduce erosion, and mitigate the risk of landslides in these ecologically sensitive regions.

Synergia Takeaways

Sustainable development practices are essential to mitigate these impacts and prevent future landslides. Improved environmental governance and community involvement are crucial for effective conservation efforts.

Without further delay, the recommendations of the Gadgil Report must be implemented, especially in its core findings. The recent tragedy underscores the need for reverting to more sustainable agricultural practices to protect the fragile ecosystem of the Western Ghats and strict regulation of mining and construction activities in this fragile region.

While substantial external investment has flowed into this region due to its attractiveness as a tourist destination, the primary stakeholders are the villagers living there for centuries. By adopting sustainable practices and engaging local communities, we can protect the Western Ghats’ biodiversity and ensure the safety of human settlements. Preventing future landslides requires a holistic approach that balances development with ecological preservation.

A GAME CHANGER

The UK Supreme Court has delivered a landmark verdict for climate change activism.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

With the climate crisis worsening with every passing day and even advanced Western nations facing the wrath of climate catastrophes in the shape of heat waves and flooding, fossil fuel policy has become a political hot potato. The UK is no exception, suffering from climate change and its consequences, such as an unprecedented influx of migrants across the channel.

The Report of the House of Commons Committee on ‘Accelerating the Transition from Fossil Fuels and Securing Energy Supplies’ released last January was unequivocal in its assertions that the UK remains dependent on fossil energy for over three-quarters of its energy needs.

Some progress has undoubtedly been made in reducing the proportion of fossil fuels burnt to generate electricity, as renewable energy generation has increased and coal has been phased out. However, fossil gas is nevertheless still used to generate a significant share of the UK’s electricity supply: in 2021 the share was just under 40 per cent. The UK also remains dependent on gas to heat most domestic and commercial properties and on oil to fuel road transport, aviation and shipping.

The report goes on to outline in stark terms the threat climate change presents to the country. On 19th July 2022, temperatures in east Lincolnshire reached 40.3°C. This was the highest temperature ever recorded in the UK, exceeding the previous UK temperature record of 38.7°C set in 2019. The record temperatures caused transport disruption as roads, rails and runways buckled; fires broke out, and power cuts took place

The Hon’ble Court ruled that local councils and planning authorities must consider the full environmental impact of new fossil fuel projects when approving them. The verdict has been hailed as a victory for climate activism.

as network infrastructure overheated. The prolonged heatwaves during July and August caused a drought across England, depleting rivers, reservoirs, and aquifers.

Under the provisions of the 2008 Climate Change Act, the UK government is bound by law to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 100 per cent of 1990 levels (net zero) by 2050. This includes reducing emissions from the devolved administrations (Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland), which currently account for about 20 per cent of the UK’s emissions.

JUDICIAL INTERVENTION

In the latest development, the UK Supreme Court handed down a landmark judgment (on the application of Finch on behalf of the Weald Action Group) v Surrey County Council and others on 20 June 2024. The impact of this judgment on planning decisions relating to UK energy and infrastructure projects can have significant environmental consequences. The Hon’ble Court ruled that local councils and planning authorities must consider the full environmental impact of new fossil fuel projects when approving them. The verdict has been hailed as a victory for climate activism.

Before the ruling, councils and planning authorities had to consider only the emissions from operations.

Now they will have to factor in emissions produced at different points in the value chain. This would include emissions by suppliers or consumers, such as when oil is refined by suppliers or burned as fuel for consumption.

The case was triggered when the Surrey County Council granted permission to expand an oil well site. The project’s Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) accounted for greenhouse gas emissions from the well site but neglected the “downstream” emissions that would ensue when the oil was refined and consumed through combustion.

Surrey County Council contended that the “downstream” emissions were too remote to be included in the project EIA. It argued that those emissions were not the project’s direct or indirect environmental effect.

The court ruled by a 3:2 majority that the combustion emissions are linked to the project by legal causation. If the oil were not extracted, the combustion emissions would not occur. It was inevitable that the oil extracted would be consumed, releasing CO2 and contributing to global warming.

The court pointed out that the location of the combustion does not distance it from the project, even though it does not take place on the project site. It concluded that the EIA should have calculated the expected combustion emissions, i.e., the amount of CO2 produced for each tonne of oil burnt.

The pith of the judgment was the issue of whether the downstream emissions are connected to the project by causation or whether they are too remote to be included in the EIA. The Supreme Court considered three tests for causation.

1) “But for” test - would the downstream emissions not occur without the project? In other words, but for the project, the emissions would not take place.

2) Intervening act - is there an intervening act that breaks the chain of causation? In this case, the court determined that the act of refining the oil did not break the causal link between the extraction and the emissions.

Patricia Kameri-Mbote, The Director of the law division at the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). `

It is a very important ruling; it ensures that the true environmental cost of fossil fuel projects is considered.”

3) Necessary and sufficient - this means that if X event takes place, Y will necessarily follow.

The Supreme Court seemed to lean towards the first two tests, which have a lower standard of causation than the third.

However, it did not lay down a clear rule that would apply to determining causation in such cases. Developers and authorities may now face a conundrum when deciding what factors to include in the EIA. It is also uncertain whether this test will be applied to other kinds of projects and production plants or just fossil fuel projects.

HOW IS THE DECISION UNIQUE

The ruling makes it clear that the EIA for a project should not be restricted to the immediate direct emissions of the project but should also extend to downstream emissions that impact the environment.

Also known as Scope 3 emissions, these emissions are often excluded from EIAs for fossil fuel projects. Yet, they are the most significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions in the oil production process. In this case, more than 10 million tonnes of carbon emissions would be produced from oil burning, but the EIA did not consider it.

Another key takeaway is that an EIA is not geographically restricted to the project site. All likely significant effects of the project will have to be calculated, irrespective of when and where they take place. The Supreme

Court pointed out that climate change is a global problem, and its impacts are not limited to where the greenhouse gases are released.

One concern was that such a decision would open the floodgates of litigation against projects since it could be applied to the extraction of other materials.

However, the Supreme Court made a clear distinction; it pointed out that oil is different from goods like iron or steel, which have diverse uses.

Oil or fossil fuels are unique in that they are intended to be burned as fuel, unlike steel, which can be used to make car parts or for construction. The non-fuel use for oil is making materials like plastic but that accounts for just 2 per cent of extracted fossil fuel.

FALLOUT

The decision doesn’t prevent the planning authority from approving oil projects or other projects that will harm the environment. However, it stipulates that the approval should be given after accounting for the environmental cost. It means that the inevitable harmful effects of a project should be considered and not ignored.

Domestically, the decision goes beyond just planning permission for the Surrey project. It featured another case, which pertained to larger projects for exploring and extracting fossil fuels from the North Sea. Green Peace UK had challenged the EIA because it did not account for the eventual consumption of the oil. Green Peace was given leave to appeal the court’s decision by intervening in this appeal.

The decision could make it more challenging for oil and gas companies to build new wells in the UK. Under Rishi Sunak, the British government encouraged further oil and gas exploration in the North Sea.

The Labour government also promised not to revoke existing oil and gas licenses. UK courts considering high-profile oil and gas cases in the North Sea, like the Rosebank oilfields, will have to consider this decision. As more courts rule in favour of considering comprehensive emissions, oil companies will find it more difficult to stick to a narrow calculation. The ruling could significantly reduce new fossil fuel projects in the UK.

The case adds to a growing jurisprudence of climate change decisions. A Norway court recently struck down three oil projects for failing to consider future emissions. U.S. and Australian courts and regulators are also increasingly accounting for future emissions when granting oil project permissions, although this is not the norm.

Synergia Takeaways

The decision is a milestone for climate change efforts as it makes EIA account for the most polluting steps of the fossil fuel value chain.

The verdict has ramifications for climate change activists, planning authorities, companies, and developers. While it focused on EIA for fossil fuel extraction, it could be applied to other projects where the harmful effects of extraction are inevitable.

More importantly, it could also set a precedent for other nations. While it only applies to the UK, it will be considered by courts across the globe. Planning authorities are likely to face more pressure to factor in the environmental impact of a project. Developers will also have to include downstream emissions when they are scoping the project.

MPOX ON THE LOOSE

A Global Game of Strain and Seek is being played out as Mpox resurfaces on European and Asian shores.

Sambratha Shetty is the COO at Synergia Foundation and holds a Masters’ in Science from the University of Greenwich, UK.

In a significant development in the global health landscape, Sweden has reported the first case of a new strain of mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) outside the African continent. Closer home, there have been muted reports of this strain appearing in our neighbourhood in Pakistan. This marks a concerning milestone in the ongoing fight against the disease, as the virus continues demonstrating its capacity for mutation and international spread.

A NEW STRAIN

The new mpox strain detected in Sweden is believed to be distinct from the previously identified strains that have caused outbreaks globally. This discovery is alarming for several reasons. Primarily, it suggests that the virus is evolving, potentially leading to variations in transmission patterns, virulence, and vaccine efficacy. The origins of this strain are still under investigation, but it is thought to have emerged from areas in Africa where mpox is endemic.

Mpox is a viral zoonotic disease that can be transmitted from animals to humans. Historically, the virus has been confined to central and western Africa, where it primarily spreads through direct contact with infected animals or human-to-human transmission via bodily fluids, respiratory droplets, and contaminated materials.

However, the virus has made headlines in recent years due to outbreaks in non-endemic regions, primarily driven by international travel and trade.

THE CASE IN SWEDEN: A WAKE-UP

CALL

Identifying this new mpox strain in Sweden underscores the importance of vigilant surveillance and rapid response mechanisms. The patient, whose identity has not been disclosed for privacy reasons, reportedly developed symptoms shortly after returning from travel. The case was detected through routine diagnostic procedures after the individual sought medical attention for characteristic symptoms of mpox, such as fever, rash, and swollen lymph nodes. Swedish health authorities acted swiftly, isolating the patient and conducting thorough contact tracing to prevent further spread. While no additional cases have been confirmed in Sweden at the time of writing, the possibility of undetected transmission remains a concern, especially given the virus’s incubation period and the potential for asymptomatic carriers.

GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS AND PREPAREDNESS

The emergence of a new mpox strain outside Africa has significant implications for global public health. It raises questions about the effectiveness of existing vaccines and treatments, which were developed based on earlier strains of the virus. If the new strain exhibits resistance to current medical interventions, it could complicate efforts to control future outbreaks. Moreover, this case highlights the importance of international cooperation in disease surveillance and response. Coun-

Dr. Anthony Fauci, Former Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID):

Monkeypox is another reminder that viruses don’t recognize borders, and global health security must remain a priority. Continued vigilance and investment in public health infrastructure are essential to combat emerging infectious diseases.’’

tries must work together to share information, resources, and expertise to prevent the spread of mpox and other emerging infectious diseases. The World Health Organization (WHO) has already called for enhanced global monitoring and research to understand the new strain’s characteristics better and develop targeted strategies to combat it.

In a recent media briefing, Hans Kluge, the WHO’s regional director for Europe, clarified that mpox, although a significant public health issue, does not pose the same level of threat as COVID-19. Unlike the highly contagious coronavirus, mpox is less easily transmitted, and with the right measures, it can be effectively controlled. Kluge called for unified global efforts to combat mpox, stressing the need for awareness, vaccination, and rapid response to prevent further outbreaks. He reiterated that with collective action, mpox can be managed successfully, preventing it from becoming a widespread health crisis.

Two key challenges remain. First is Vaccine Efficacy; new strains may challenge the effectiveness of existing vaccines, necessitating updates or new formulations. Second, and more difficult to overcome, is Global Cooperation. As was experienced in the early phases of the COVID 19 pandemic when certain countries refused to share data, international collaboration remains crucial in sharing data, resources, and expertise to manage the spread of the virus effectively.

INDIA: GROWING CONCERNS

India, as one of the most populous countries in the world with extensive international travel, has been on high alert for mpox since the global rise in cases. In 2022, India reported its first cases of mpox, and since then, the country has strengthened its surveillance and response mechanisms. The Indian government has implemented stringent screening protocols at airports and seaports, particularly for travellers from countries with known mpox cases. In response to the evolving situation, Indian health authorities have urged state governments to remain vigilant and promptly report any suspected mpox cases. Laboratories across the country have been equipped to test for mpox, and healthcare workers have been trained to identify and manage the disease. The confirmation of a new strain in Sweden has raised concerns about the potential arrival of this variant in India. While no cases of the new strain have been detected in India so far, the possibility of its introduction cannot be ruled out. The government is closely

monitoring the situation and is prepared to update its strategies as new information becomes available.

VACCINATION AND PUBLIC AWARENESS

Vaccination remains one of the most effective tools in the fight against mpox. India has a robust vaccination program in place, but the emergence of new strains could challenge the efficacy of existing vaccines. The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) is closely collaborating with global health bodies to assess the need for updated vaccines or new formulations specifically targeting the new strain. Public awareness campaigns have also been ramped up across India, focusing on educating people about the signs and symptoms of mpox and the importance of seeking medical attention if symptoms develop. The campaigns emphasize preventive measures, such as avoiding contact with infected individuals, maintaining good hygiene, and adhering to travel advisories issued by health authorities.

THE PATH FORWARD

As the global community grapples with the implications of this new mpox strain, research will play a pivotal role in guiding the response. Scientists in India and worldwide are working to sequence the virus’s genome to understand its mutations and assess its potential impact on public health. This information will be crucial in developing targeted interventions, including updated vaccines and antiviral treatments. Furthermore, international collaboration is essential in addressing the threat posed by emerging infectious diseases. The rapid spread of mpox outside Africa serves as a reminder that diseases know no borders. Strengthening global health security through cooperation, information sharing, and resource allocation is vital in preventing future pandemics.

Synergia Takeaways

Confirming a new mpox strain in Sweden is a stark reminder of the ever-present threat of emerging infectious diseases. While the immediate risk to the public may be low, the situation demands vigilance from health authorities, researchers, and the global community. In India, the focus must remain on preparedness, swift response, and public awareness to prevent the spread of mpox and safeguard public health.

The lessons learned from past outbreaks must guide our actions as the world navigates this latest challenge. Preparedness, swift response, and public awareness will be crucial in preventing the spread of mpox and safeguarding global health.

The emergence of a new strain outside Africa underscores the need for a proactive approach to infectious disease management that prioritizes innovation, cooperation, and resilience in the face of evolving threats.

THE RETURN OF A DISFIGURING DISEASE

Monkeypox is a viral zoonosis caused by a double-stranded DNA virus (MPXV). The disease has historical relevance; it was initially identified in 1958 and was limited to Sub-Saharan Africa. However, the disease is now re-emerging on a global scale. Many small mammals can carry the monkeypox virus MPXV with overt symptoms like rashes or sometimes without any symptoms. Animals that can harbour this virus include monkeys, prairie dogs, rats, squirrels, and hedgehogs. Humans who come into contact with body fluids, excrement, and crusted scabs of an infected animal can contract the virus. Human-to-human spread is also possible through close contact, fomites, and droplets or aerosols from an infected person.

EPIDEMIOLOGY

Mpox is now a global health emergency. There are two strains of the virus Clade I Congo Basin Clade (Ia, Ib) and Clade II West African Clade (IIa, IIb). Clade II causes a less severe form of the disease compared to Clade I. In 2022 WHO recommended using Mpox for Monkeypox. Several African countries have reported cases, and a few European and Asian countries are reporting cases. A current situation report of the global spread can be viewed at https://monkeypoxreport.ecdc.europa.eu/

MONKEYPOX VS SMALLPOX

Smallpox was one of the greatest scourges eradicated by a global vaccination initiative. The smallpox virus Variola (VaV) and monkeypox virus (MPXV) belong to the same Poxviridae family and share many structural and functional similarities. Even the clinical symptoms can overlap between these two diseases. However, patients with monkeypox display regional lymph node swelling while this is usually absent in smallpox. Meanwhile, smallpox was exclusively a human disease, the major reason it could be eradicated by vaccination. However, monkeypox has animal reservoirs that can sustain the virus which can make eradication efforts challenging.

Mode of Transmission:

Animal Contact ( Zoonotic Transmission)

Person-to-Person Transmission

Aerosols/Droplet Infection

Body Fluids/ Saliva/ Dried Scabs or Crusts

Direct skin-to-skin contact

Spread through fomites

( objects used by an infected person)

Sexual Transmission

Dr. Gifty Immanuel MD, PhD, FRCP, FIDSA, is the Medical Director at Synergia Foundation.

Smallpox carried a higher mortality rate of 30% or more, while the mortality rates in monkeypox could range from 1-10%. Interestingly, the global vaccination drive for smallpox kept monkeypox under control. However, the eradication of smallpox in 1980 by WHO, and the discontinuation of the smallpox vaccination resulted in the resurgence of monkeypox. The vaccinia virus-based smallpox vaccines are also effective against monkeypox. Both smallpox virus (VaV) and monkeypox virus (MPXV) are potential bioterror pathogens. However, all the outbreaks so far have been natural occurrences.

CLINICAL HALLMARKS

The disease has an incubation period of roughly a week to a fortnight and symptoms can last up to two weeks or a month. Fever, body pain, malaise, and swollen lymph nodes are core symptoms. The hallmark manifestation is the rash that progresses in this sequence- macule-papule-vesicle-pustule.3 These lesions are distributed in a (centrifugal fashion)-meaning it is concentrated on the mouth, face, and legs and less on the other parts of the body.

The lesions heal by crusting and formation of scabs which eventually fall off. Monkeypox can scar and disfigure in some cases. Secondary bacterial infection, septicemia, organ enlargement, and neurological sequelae are some of the complications. People with a lowered immunity as in HIV/AIDS or a post-transplant state can have more severe manifestations.

CONCLUSION

The return of monkeypox is a grim reminder of the power of pandemics that punctuate human history and evolution. The eradication of smallpox was a remarkable feat and a milestone in public health. However, the emergence of monkeypox worldwide undermines the legacy of smallpox eradication. With a concerted worldwide effort, we can surmount this challenge to global health.

Treatment:

Antivirals-Tecovirimat/ Cidofovir/Brincidofovir

Monoclonals -Imatinib

Topicals – Mupirocin creams, Chlorhexidine washes

Diagnosis:

Clinical Diagnosis-by appearance, signs & symptoms

Lab Diagnosis- PCR/ Electron Microscopy/Serology

Prevention:

Prior Smallpox Vaccination- provides lasting protection (80%) against monkeypox

Current Vaccinations- MVA-BN/ LC 16/ ACAM200 (WHO recommended)

READY TO FACE FIRE?

After her joyous Chicago, Kamala must face 72 days under fire.

TWilliam John Emmott is an English journalist, author, and consultant, best known as the editor-in-chief of The Economist newspaper from 1993 to 2006.

he show that was the Democratic National Convention in Chicago was a great success, full of stars and cheers and unity and excitement. But now the much tougher task begins for Kamala Harris, as she must fight her way through the remaining 72 days of what promises to be a nasty but also nail-biting campaign to be elected as the 47th president of the United States on November 5th. And unlike this past week, the election narrative will no longer be under her control.

Even so, we should not under-rate her (and her party’s) achievement. Having emerged only on July 21st as the Democratic Party’s candidate when President Joe Biden withdrew from the race, and having suffered throughout her three-and-a-half years as his vice-president from low public approval ratings, Harris has moved within barely a month from the underdog to the frontrunner. She is ahead of Donald Trump in both national opinion polls and in the key states that will likely decide the election, namely Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

SOME MILESTONES ESTABLISHED

Yet unless new polls show a dramatic change following the Democratic National Convention, her lead is too small to invite confidence. It is smaller than the lead held at the same stage of the 2016 campaign by Hillary Clinton, who went on to lose to Donald Trump.

By their words and performances over the past month, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz have succeeded in presenting themselves as positive, optimistic and, in American terms, “normal”, all of which are key electoral attributes.

Harris’s lead has room to grow, but this still looks likely to be a tight contest.

Last week, at the convention, she and her party had to achieve three main tasks: first, they had to avoid disunity over Harris’s candidacy or, more specifically, over the Biden administration’s main foreign-policy nightmare, the war in Gaza; they had to start to define what she and the party stand for in terms of domestic and foreign policy; and, above all, they had to show that Harris, and her running-mate Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, are a credible team to occupy the White House for the next four years.

On the first task, the convention was more successful than most observers expected a month ago. There were some protests about Gaza, but not enough to fill the headlines and no signs of open divisions inside the party. Events in the Middle East are unpredictable enough that they could still cause Harris headaches in the run-up to the election, but her remarks about how the “scale of human suffering” in the conflict is “heartbreaking” set the right tone.

On the second task, voters in presidential elections rarely make up their minds based on specific policy

stances. It is all too technical, abstract and probably tendentious for most people: some won’t understand policy stances, others won’t believe them. What does probably matter is the impression such stances convey about the basic attitude of the candidates and the apparent coherence of their thinking.

Measured in that way, although many of their proposals were half-baked at best, the Harris-Walz team have probably been successful in conveying the idea that their main concern in government will be lowering the cost of living for ordinary people, curbing the excessive power of big, quasi-monopolistic corporations, and restoring basic freedoms and specifically rights over abortion.

No one will be convinced they have a magic formula, and many are likely to be sceptical that they will succeed in doing much about illegal immigration. On the issue of border security, their best hope will be to neutralise the topic, removing any advantage Trump may think he has.

Foreign affairs are notoriously just a sideshow in American elections. When I was at The Economist, we would lament every four years about how little time and attention was given to America’s huge global role. This year will be just the same in terms of specific policy stances and specific countries. But it promises to be unusual in terms of the role foreign affairs may play in defining the character of the rival candidates, and it is voters’ perceptions of character and behaviour that are likely to be decisive.

THE BROAD STRATEGY

By their words and performances over the past month, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz have succeeded in presenting themselves as positive, optimistic and, in American terms, “normal”, all of which are key electoral attributes. Their message that Donald Trump and his running-mate J.D. Vance are “weird”, “unserious”,

deeply negative and in a variety of senses dangerous has proved to be both powerful and convincing. By focusing on the threat to reproductive rights, personal liberty and democracy itself, the Democrats have successfully captured a word usually owned by Republicans, namely “freedom”.

That should provide an excellent platform on which to enter the fierce combat of the next 72 days. However, what it has not yet done is to clearly and convincingly label the Harris-Walz team as being likely to provide strong leadership and credibility in the face of the inevitable crises that will occur during any administration.

In her acceptance speech, Harris sought to address this by talking about the tough stance she would take towards China and Russia and by reminding listeners of Trump’s friendships with brutal dictators like North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. By doing so, she wasn’t trying to get into a debate about foreign affairs but rather was trying to show that she would be a strong, resolute leader when sitting behind the president’s official desk, known as “the resolute desk”, not actually because its user necessarily fits that label but because it was built in 1880 from the timbers of a British naval ship, the HMS Resolute.

Using strong, even resolute words will not, however, be enough. Harris now must show that she can be strong and resolute when under daily fire from the Trump team, when questioned by journalists, and, in particular, in the one face-to-face TV debate that the two sides have so far agreed to hold on ABC on September 10.

If I was forced now to place a bet about who will win on November 5th, I would certainly put my money on Kamala Harris and Tim Walz and on a vote for freedom, normality and positivity. But I would not want to risk too much on that outcome. The race promises to be close and tense, and there is plenty of room for new upsets and earthquakes along the way.

POWER WITHIN LEADERSHIP

LEGACY OF NARENDRA MODI

Power Within: Leadership Legacy of Narendra Modi by R. Balasubramanian delves into the leadership style and impact of one of India’s most prominent political figures, Narendra Modi. The book offers an in-depth analysis of Modi’s approach to governance, his vision for India, and the underlying principles that have shaped his political journey. Balasubramanian meticulously examines the personal experiences, challenges, and strategic decisions that have defined Modi’s leadership, presenting a narrative that explores the balance between power and purpose. “Power Within” studies Modi’s impact on contemporary India and provides a broader commentary on the nature of power, leadership, and legacy in the modern world.

Q: Throughout your work with indigenous communities, what parallels have you observed between traditional tribal leadership and the leadership qualities you describe in your book? How can these indigenous practices inform contemporary leadership models?

In reflecting on leadership, I draw heavily from traditional Indian perspectives, particularly the teachings in texts like the Bhagavad Gita, Ramayana, Mahabharata, and Arthashastra. A key quality I value is Viveka—the ability to discern between what is real and what is not, much like Adi Shankara emphasises in his work, “Viveka Chudamani.” However, discernment alone isn’t enough; it must be paired with Vairagya, or dispassion, to ensure that decisions are made without bias.

In the Mahabharata, the concept of Rajadharma is beautifully illustrated when Bhishma, on his deathbed, advises Yudhishthira on the principles of good governance. Similarly, in the Ramayana, Rama, often seen as the ideal human being, provides his brother Bharata with a detailed guide on how to govern, covering aspects like trade, counsel, and the protection of knowledge and economy. The Arthashastra by Kautilya is more direct, focusing on two key governance outcomes: Lokasangraha (societal welfare) and Yogakshema (the protection and acquisition of security). Kautilya is clear that a leader must achieve Indriya Vijaya—complete control over the senses—to govern effectively.

is why I admire Prime Minister Modi’s efforts to reclaim cultural artefacts. This act isn’t just about preserving history; it’s about reaffirming our identity and strength as a nation. Understanding these traditional values is, to me, crucial for effective leadership in today’s world.

Q: Could you expound on the difference between the exercise of leadership and the “eye of leadership”? What are the key takeaways from this distinction?

In India, the focus is on something other than being seen as doing the work but on ensuring that the work gets done. This contrasts sharply with the Western narrative, where there’s an emphasis on always being visible in working. In the West, if you’re a CEO, you’re expected to solve everyone’s problems, diminishing your leadership credibility. But in India, it’s about the results, not the show. This difference was clear to me during my involvement with Team Anna in the fight against corruption; many were more interested in appearing to fight corruption than in addressing it.

Another key aspect of leadership in India is staying focused on the work despite distractions. Like Krishna advised Arjuna, the focus must be on fulfilling one’s duty, guided by ‘Dharma’. The West struggles to distinguish between the role and the self, but Indic thinking teaches that ‘Dharma’ guides your role. Arjuna had to understand that, while he had personal ties, his duty as a warrior was to fight for justice.

Furthermore, in India, leadership isn’t about the consequences of doing or enjoying the rewards—this is the essence of ‘Karmayoga’. Unlike the Western model, which celebrates the outcomes and the rewards of actions, the Indian approach is about detachment from these results. I often reflect on this, especially when seeing how Western entrepreneurs, after making their fortunes, realise that monetary success doesn’t answer the deeper questions of life.

When I compare Indian and Western leadership models, I see a fundamental difference: Indian leadership is deeply context-based, adaptable, and rooted in self-enquiry. This approach contrasts with the more standardised, one-size-fits-all frameworks often promoted in Western leadership models. I also recognise the significance of India’s civilisational heritage, which

Finally, Indian leadership is rooted in ‘Advaitic’ thinking, where listening and problem-solving come from a sense of interconnectedness and oneness—’ Samarthwam’ and ‘Ekathwam’. Leadership, for me, is about self-awareness, understanding those around us, and recognising the actions that connect us all, a philosophy deeply embedded in the teachings of the Bhagavad Gita.

Q: Is a good leader supposed to nurture the second ring of leadership in a political or defence context? Is this approach being seriously considered and implemented in the Indian context?

When discussing leadership in India, we often focus too much on the individual successor rather than on the importance of the succession process itself. Leadership should be about the actions and principles that guide the role, not just the person who holds the position. However, for succession to be effective, the new leader must be accepted and supported. Many factors are at play—context, knowledge, and trust—all of which influence how a successor can operate. Leadership succession isn’t a one-size-fits-all process, and it’s important to recognise that these varying contexts often shape opinions and projections about the future.

Q: What common traits, if any, bring together Western or Eastern leaders?

My book is a practical toolkit for everyone, offering relatable, real-world examples of leadership in the current context. It challenges the notion of celebrating leaders like Winston Churchill, who, despite being revered, had significant flaws in his leadership. Comparing leaders across different eras and contexts can be misleading, as their success often depends on the specific circumstances they face.

In the last chapter, I compare three leaders who each shifted their country’s narrative: Abraham Lincoln, Lee Kuan Yew, and Deng Xiaoping. Lincoln stood against the norm of slavery in the U.S., facing immense challenges that ultimately led to his assassination. Lee Kuan Yew transformed Singapore into a prosperous nation through authoritative leadership, which suited the needs of his time, even though that approach wouldn’t work today. Deng Xiaoping redirected China’s trajectory, yet his leadership style might not be effective today.

I argue that leaders like these would likely fail if they operated in today’s world because leadership now requires a different kind of contextual relevance.

The book begins by addressing the widespread failure of public leadership today, where leaders either fail to solve problems or, worse, create them. I emphasise that every leadership journey starts with a vision, often born from a crucible moment in life—a significant experience that shapes one’s path.

: How does the Prime Minister identify people to

Prime Minster explains that he only looks for three qualities. One is absolute in-

tegrity. Second, he says, you should always have the spirit of ‘mai nahi hum’. It’s always we, never I. Third, he says you can’t be on my team if you are averse to technology.

Q: There is criticism, especially in the Western media control over the press and freedom of expression in India. Do you think this issue deserves more attention, and how does it compare to other countries?

Everyone wants to control the narrative. The real question is whose narrative is more powerful at a particular time. For instance, a strong narrative suggests that India will change its constitution, but no certifiable evidence supports this claim.

Despite the political damage that narrative caused, it’s baseless. Another example is the narrative around GST being a hegemony of the federal nation. GST has been in the works for 30 years, with successive governments trying to implement a unified taxation code. This government inherited the structure and fine-tuned it. The GST Council, which includes all state finance ministers, collectively decides on taxation matters, not the central government. Yet, the narrative outside suggests otherwise.

People often believe they can’t speak up regarding freedom of speech, but my experience says otherwise. In my book, “I, the Citizen,” I’ve criticised Prime Minister Modi. I even wrote an article in 2015 critiquing his first year in office. Despite this, I still work with him, and he supports my work. This shows that the fear of speaking out might be more in people’s minds than in reality. However, my book is judged by its cover, not its content. No major national newspaper has reviewed it, likely out of fear of the political climate. Journalists seem to be playing it safe, not wanting to upset the current or potential future governments. This reflects the ethicality of journalism today, where business interests often dictate the narrative.

Q: In today’s day and age, what leadership qualities should a leader have?

Three main leadership qualities are a must. First, you must be authentic. Don’t pretend to be somebody else. Just be yourself. I go back to what Vivekananda said more than 100 years ago. He said three Ps: purity, patience, and perseverance. Purity of thought, word and deed. Purity of intent. Purity of purpose. Purity of everything. Next is to pay attention to the means and the end. And finally, it’s not about yourself. It’s about the cause that you have chosen. Keep sight of it.

Author of a National Best Seller, a mentor, and Member HR of Capacity Building Commission A former Rhodes Professor at Cornell University USA. DR. R. BALASUBRAMANIAM

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