INSIGHTS SEPTEMBER EDITION

LOOKING BEYOND THE CURVE

SEPTEMBER 2023 | MONTHLY EDITION SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

MEDIA ENABLED

DIPLOMACY AND DEFENSE: THE TAIWAN CONFLICT EXCLUSIVES NAVIGATING THE INVASION OF TAIWAN Page - 03

THE G20 SUMMIT: AN APPRAISAL Page - 08

AFGHANISTAN: A BITTER SURVIVOR Page - 11

INDIA -FRANCE: RAFALES & BEYOND Page - 14

GNSS: TILTS IN THE SKIES Page - 17

INSIGHTS is a strategic affairs, foreign policy, science and technology magazine that provides nonpartisan analysis of contemporary issues based on real-time information.

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EDITORIAL Dear Reader: Greetings from the Synergia Foundation!

With the ongoing fighting between Israel and Hamas, the focus shifts from Ukraine and Taiwan back to the Middle East. However, just because global attention is now riveted upon the gory spectacle of the bloodletting of innocents by both sides, it does not mean we can wish away the other ongoing confrontations, especially Taiwan.

But potential aggressors should take a leaf from the lessons of Ukraine. If Ukraine is a foretaste, then the invasion of Taiwan will not be a piece of cake!

There are consequences other than purely military for any attempt to resolve the issue of Taiwan by force, which we analyse.

The conduct of the G20 events in India, culminating with the high-profile summit in New Delhi, has been in the headlines for the better part of the year. There has been some criticism, especially outside India, but overall, no one can deny that a measure of success was achieved. The G20 final September summit was a diplomatic and strategic success for India, despite differences between members. We bring to you the insights.

For some months, trouble has been brewing in our immediate neighbourhood between two erstwhile partners, Pakistan and Afghanistan. After two years, the honeymoon is over as both sides exchanged gunfire at their mutual border, and Islamabad gears up to deport millions of Afghans.

India cannot afford to ignore Afghanistan, the arena of the Great Game, and we have Afghanistan

in our Neighbourhood Watch segment towards that aim.

The Rafale deal is more than just a defence purchase; it symbolises a long and enduring strategic partnership, as opined by our Diplomatic Expert.

In our technological segment, we have several interesting subjects- the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), especially the progress being made by China and India, dealing with AI in our daily work and home lives, and under the shadow of the Chandrayan-3 success, the viability of lunar commercial exploitation.

China’s economic outlook is not so rosy, which is alarming for the world. We examine it in detail to find out where the problem is. Two important subjects being analysed are technologically relevant but oriented towards our environment- nuclear power generation and expansion of commercial activities into the Arctic.

In our global scan, we try to put the scanner on some lesser-known nations, especially in Africa or Latin America; this time, we look at Ecuador. We also analyse the Nipa virus, again raising its ugly head. We end with a detailed analysis of the Blue Water strategy of China We hope our esteemed readers will continue supporting us as we strive to further evidence-based research on strategic issues with global resonance.

Sincerely yours

Maj. Gen. Ajay Sah Chief Information Officer

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FEATURED ECONOMICS

SPOTLIGHT STORY : NAVIGATING TAIWAN

EXPLORING MOON’S COMMERCIAL VIABILITY

NAVIGATING THE INVASION OF TAIWAN

If Ukraine is a foretaste, then the invasion of Taiwan will not be a piece of cake! And similarly, it has consequences for everyone, far and near.

PAGE 03 GEOPOLITICS

While it may appear a bit presumptuous at this juncture, Mission Chandrayaan is a baby step by India towards the ultimate commercial exploitation of spatial objects.

PAGE 28

RED ALERT! After decades of upward growth, the post-pandemic reality is that China’s economy is slowing down amidst many hurdles.

PAGE 32 HEALTH CARE

AN EMERGING ENTITY WITH A HIGH FATALITY

THE G20 SUMMIT: AN APPRAISAL

The Nipah virus is hovering on the horizon, ready to strike humankind with greater vigour.

The G20 final September summit was a diplomatic and strategic success for India, despite differences between members.

PAGE 11

PAGE 36

INDIA’S NEIGHBOURHOOD ENERGY

AFGHANISTAN: A BITTER SURVIVOR

Two years after the hasty, disorganised exit of the Americans and their allies, Afghanistan, though isolated, seems to be holding out and surviving rather well!

PAGE 14

SECURITY

INDIA -FRANCE: RAFALES AND BEYOND France has proved a reliable partner for decades, and there is increasing convergence in our world views. The momentum generated by wide-ranging agreements must not falter.

A NEW DAWN FOR NUCLEAR?

“Nuclear energy can help make the energy sector’s journey away from unabated fossil fuels faster and more secure”-International Energy Agency Report, September 2022.

PAGE 38 ENVIRONMENT

GLOBAL SCAN

PAGE 18 TECHNOLOGY

MELTING THE FROZEN STATUS QUO

A RUNOFF ELECTION

The biggest challenge confronting the sustainable development of the Arctic is its changing ecology amidst international contestations.

PAGE 42

The deepening security chaos in Ecuador after a first-round runoff is symbolic of the multiple crises affecting the country.

PAGE 47

ANALYSIS

GNSS: CONTESTATIONS IN THE SKIES

WHEN SCI-FI MEETS REALITY!

GNSSs are the expanding crux of national sovereignty; India needs a directed tactical approach to face up to the competition.

PAGE 20

AI isn’t a distant future; it’s our current reality. The momentum of the AI revolution is accelerating, unveiling a realm of fresh possibilities.

PAGE 23

THE ‘BLUE DRAGON’ STRATEGY China’s “Blue Dragon” strategy seeks to upend Washington’s containment policy and breakout of strategic bottlenecks PAGE 50

SPOTLIGHT STORY : NAVIGATING TAIWAN

NAVIGATING THE INVASION OF TAIWAN

If Ukraine is a foretaste, then the invasion of Taiwan will not be a piece of cake! And similarly, it has consequences for everyone, far and near.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION RES E A RCH

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aiwan takes the top slot in any compilation of global flash points for decades.

With a resurgent Beijing keen to make good its promises of unification before the completion of a century of Communist rule, the situation has never looked grimmer. Adding to the tension, Ukraine has made conventional conflicts by/ between big powers fashionable once again since the end of the Cold War. Just how serious the Chinese are, was amply demonstrated by the Chinese military response to the ill-advised visit to Taiwan of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi last year just before remitting office. The PLA went on an overdrive, putting on display the astounding military capacity that it has painstakingly acquired over the last two decades, essentially to cut off the island nation from its friends and mentors as a prelude to an all-out invasion from the skies and the seas. Even when tempers cooled, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) continued to dispatch naval vessels and military aircraft across the unofficial demarcation line of the Taiwan Strait, known as the Median Line, which China does not acknowledge.

This heightened military presence in the Taiwan Strait has raised the probability of encounters between the Chinese and Taiwanese militaries, as well as American carrier groups exercising their right to navigation in international waters around Taiwan. Even if all sides

In a hypothetical scenario, asserting that no geographical region would be immune to the ramifications of a conflict involving Taiwan would be a reasonable assumption. This holds true on a global scale, but it is particularly significant for Asia, considering the visual spillover effects such an event would generate. sincerely wish to avoid an all-out war, miscalculation and rapid escalation can occur when powerful maritime contingents play the ‘game of chicken’ on the high seas.

A REGIONAL RESET However, the influential Economist Group does not predict an outbreak of hostilities in the near future. To arrive at this conclusion, the Group looked at various hypothetical and intricate scenarios and economic and geopolitical indicators to gauge the vulnerability levels of concerned countries, including those beyond the immediate vicinity of the Taiwan Straits.

In a hypothetical scenario, asserting that no geographical region would be immune to the ramifications of a conflict involving Taiwan would be a reasonable assumption. This holds true on a global scale, but it is particularly significant for Asia, considering the visual spillover effects such an event would generate. Among the countries in Asia, the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea emerge as the most vulnerable. This observation

NAVIGATING THE INVASION OF TAIWAN

is unsurprising due to their proximity to the Taiwan Strait, substantial economic interdependence with China, and security alliances with the United States.

Perturbing, even Australia and New Zealand might eventually be drawn, although their levels of involvement would vary. In recent years, Australia has progressively taken on a more proactive role in the regional context. Does this imply that it is willing to play a more direct part in any potential cross-strait conflict, especially if, as expected, the U.S. gets involved? Is this what led to the signing of the AUKUS deal? In contrast, its ANZAC partner, New Zealand, has pursued a more cautious approach to diplomacy and its relationship with China in the past few years. In a conflict scenario, New Zealand might be inclined to support U.S. security efforts but would likely refrain from committing its military forces to engage in active warfare.

It must be historically remembered that the ANZAC group has willingly participated with at least a token force, if not more, in most American military adventures abroad-from Korea to Vietnam in the 1950s and 1960s and in Afghanistan and Iraq in the 2000s. Despite the distances involved, both countries consider themselves as much a component of the Atlantic military alliances as their mother country, the U.K. Regarding nations that are relatively less exposed to potential conflict, Indonesia and India stand out as slightly less vulnerable. Indonesia’s lower vulnerability is attributed to the absence of existing territorial or maritime disputes with China. This factor could play a significant role in shaping the likely response of the Indonesian government and population in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Conversely, India exhibits a slightly higher risk of being drawn into the conflict due to its territorial dispute with China and active involvement in the quadrilateral security dialogue with the U.S., Australia, and Japan. India’s growing relationship with the U.S. also contributes to this increased risk. However, it is noteworthy that India’s trade with China, compared to the rest of the region, is relatively limited, which somewhat mitigates the economic disruptions that may arise from the conflict. Going by historical data, India has never gone to war on the side of any nation if its sovereignty was not threatened. So, India’s involvement would be less of an expeditionary nature and more of a show of force along its own land and maritime periphery to tie down Chinese forces.

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Taiwan’s ability to import crucial materials necessary for maintaining production would also be at risk. This multi-faceted disruption could lead to far-reaching consequences for regional and global economies.

The destruction of ships and trade flows would trigger a significant ripple effect on the broader industrial landscape, especially considering the critical timelines and Taiwan’s pivotal role in global manufacturing.

The economies of North-East Asian countries, particularly Japan and South Korea, are generally more vulnerable than others in the region. This vulnerability is linked to their geopolitical exposure and close geographical proximity to potential conflicts. Both Hong Kong and South Korea rank high in terms of economic expansion, partly due to their proximity to the economic processes in the region.

Three major drivers contribute to the vulnerability of Japan and South Korea.

Firstly, their hosting of U.S. military bases and alignment with the U.S. could make them a party to an armed conflict. This might activate regional security alliances, exposing them to pre-emptive Chinese strikes.

Secondly, their economic entanglement with China makes them dependent on Chinese inputs, which could be weaponised during a crisis or war. South Korea heavily relies on Chinese inputs for a wide range of products, from dangerous chemical ingredients to electronic components. The implications of a conflict would extend beyond supply chain disruptions, affecting consumer goods and living costs in both countries.

Thirdly, they would be severely impacted by the shock to the global semiconductor industry, as both countries heavily rely on semiconductor supplies from Taiwan. An immediate cut-off of Taiwan’s semiconductor supplies could devastate their electronics, car manufacturing, and home appliance industries.

AN ECONOMIC HOLOCAUST

Japan faces significant risks, particularly related to the likelihood of escalating economic tensions with China. This escalation comes into play, especially after Japan’s alignment with the U.S. semiconductor restrictions against China. In response, China might retaliate by targeting Japanese firms through export control schemes and investigations of business executives, causing concerns within the Chinese business community. Additionally, China could disrupt the operations of dominant Japanese firms established in China, leading to further uncertainties.

Undoubtedly, any conflict in the region could result in severe economic devastation, considering Asia’s significant role as a trade and export hub in the global context. In such a scenario, there are bound to be substantial disruptions to industrial production and exports from Taiwan. These disruptions would not only stem from shocks to transportation and logistics networks in and around the Taiwan Strait but also affect domestic factories and manufacturing activities. Furthermore,

In the case of Japan and South Korea, businesses need to be aware of infrastructure-related risks.

Heightened regional tensions increase the likelihood of state-sponsored cyber-attacks, particularly on critical infrastructure like healthcare facilities, digital banking, and payment systems. These sectors are among the most vulnerable to threats like ransomware and DDoS attacks. Businesses relying on such infrastructure should prioritise establishing backup systems and

NAVIGATING THE INVASION OF TAIWAN

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develop contingency plans to mitigate potential disruptions.

a vital role in various products, including electronics, household appliances, and automobiles.

Another secondary impact on Japan is a potential higher tax burden. The perceived threat to regional security has prompted the Japanese government to enhance defence capabilities, revising key security documents and increasing defence budgets. The funding for the higher budget will likely involve higher taxation, potentially including taxes on digital firms and new taxes on carbon emissions. These measures would impose additional costs on companies operating in Japan.

The global chip shortage experienced in 2021 and 2022 highlighted the consequences when demand outpaces supply, even with factories operating at full capacity. However, under a conflict scenario, the disruption would intensify significantly, as a substantial portion of the supply chain would cease to exist, causing a much more severe disruption.

As for Hong Kong, the lessons from the Ukraine war and the resulting financial sanctions from the West are significant. The financial hub’s position as a global connector between China and the rest of the world was severely weakened. In a hypothetical war scenario, the imposition of international sanctions could harm Hong Kong’s financial connections and investment market. The city’s financial stability and connections may be disrupted or even eliminated if stringent sanctions and mass investor responses are triggered in response to the conflict. An open conflict could severely affect Hong Kong’s linkages to the outside world, particularly concerning major currencies like the U.S. dollar and the British pound.

In addition to Taiwan, we must also consider the shocks originating from China. These shocks would be manifold and carry significant consequences for the region, given China’s role as a major source of goods, especially intermediate goods, for the rest of the region and the world.

THE CHIP WAR

Consequently, commercial linkages of Chinese firms in various sectors, including aerospace, defence technology, and finance, would be severely affected, causing secondary shock consequences for the entire region.

The United States and China are engaged in a rivalry to assert control over the most advanced chips, which could play a pivotal role in developing the next generation of sophisticated weaponry. The semiconductor industry is reshaping around geopolitical risk, and Taiwan is at the centre of this tussle.

The potential offline status of Taiwanese chips, particularly in advanced segments where talent is a dominant factor in production, poses a substantial risk of supply collapse within the chip segment and downstream industries. This disruption would cause a major impact on the electronics supply chain, affecting economies heavily reliant on Taiwanese chips and facing sudden difficulties in accessing them. These chips play

SHOCKS EMANATING FROM CHINA

Disruptions to production and logistics in China, particularly in coastal provinces, would cause shocks.

Additionally, the likelihood of U.S. and Western sanctions imposed on Chinese entities would generate further shocks. These measures could disrupt trade flows between China, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, restricting export flows.

The international response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine provided valuable lessons on how swiftly and profoundly Russia’s economic and financial ties with the rest of the world were severed. It is crucial to acknowledge that replicating such measures in the case of China would be significantly more challenging due to China’s tightly intertwined global linkages.

Moreover, the assumption of direct U.S. intervention in the conflict (unlike Ukraine) would likely fuel a stronger impetus for forceful sanctions-led responses targeting China’s economic strong points.

NAVIGATING THE INVASION OF TAIWAN

We must also consider the possibility of China implementing its punitive economic restrictions in the event of a conflict. This could involve halting or limiting the supply of certain critical goods or materials to the U.S. and its security partners engaged in the conflict.

RISK MITIGATION The aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine served as a wake-up call to the world, highlighting the possibility of conflicts and underscoring the need for taking concerns seriously from a risk mitigation and preparation standpoint. To effectively address these risks, coordination with like-minded governments becomes essential for risk mitigation, emphasising the high costs of conflicts and promoting the collective interest in avoiding them.

Risk mitigation efforts will focus on investment and supply chain diversification for businesses. Emerging Southeast Asia, particularly ASEAN countries, has been a primary beneficiary of these flows, with China experiencing some impacts.

Despite the risks, companies are not abandoning Asia, recognising it as the fastest-growing region globally and keen on being part of its growth. Hence, discussions should prioritise risk mitigation rather than risk avoidance, as these challenges are enduring. Striking a balance between the two approaches will be crucial for navigating the rest of the 2020s. Businesses operating in or connected to Hong Kong should be prepared for potential adverse impacts on their financial operations and consider contingency measures to safeguard their interests.

The U.S. is already in the process of securing its semiconductor supply chain. Taiwan’s supremacy within the semiconductor industry is poised to encounter challenges in the medium to long term as experts project a forthcoming shift in the United States’ chip manufacturing approach. It is anticipated that the U.S. will transition production to domestic shores.

In August 2022, the U.S. enacted the Chips and Science Act, extending $39 billion in subsidies and a 25 per cent tax credit to bolster domestic manufacturing and $13 billion allocated for chip research.

Subsequently, in October 2022, it banned exporting advanced chips and chipmaking equipment to China.

These strategic initiatives to diminish dependency on Taiwan will exert significant changes on the country, whose survival largely hinges on chip production.

Japan and South Korea could potentially serve as alternatives to fill the gap left by Taiwan in the supply chain, particularly in the higher-end and cutting-edge segments of advanced chip production.

However, this transition would not be a quick or short-term solution. It would require considerable time and substantial capital investment to attract talent and company technology to materialise such endeavours.

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We have already observed the emergence of relatively sophisticated rival production capacities in ASEAN and China, catering to the mid and lower-end segments of the supply chain. Yet, for the upper end of the supply chain, companies like TSMC and Samsung, which dominate this sphere, remain hesitant to expand their production overseas. They prioritise keeping their critical intellectual property and proprietary technology within their home countries. This is mainly due to concerns about I.P. leakage, talent theft, and the lack of a similar industrial ecosystem in potential overseas production sites.

INDIA VIEW India is investing a great deal in developing a worldclass semiconductor manufacturing hub. Towards this end, Taiwan can be a productive partner. During a webinar conducted by Synergia with Taiwanese Think tank TCCS, the speakers suggested that India should leverage some experienced connections from Japan, South Korea, the U.S. and Taiwan at least for the next ten years; a full-fledged chips supply line cannot be created overnight. Many Taiwanese companies are keen to decrease their investments in China and move to SE Asia and India. This presents a great opportunity for the Indian semiconductor industry.

Assessment Lessons from Ukraine may inhibit China from going kinetic over Taiwan in the next few years. As per a CIA report leaked in the media last year, it was assessed that by 2027, the PLA would be militarily prepared to execute an invasion of Taiwan.

While an all-out invasion may not be on the cards in the short term, risks of an unintended conflict arising from accidental collisions or missile firings due to miscalculations which could escalate into a larger undesirable conflict, cannot be ruled out.

These risks can intensify over the remainder of the 2020s, particularly as Chinese Premier Xi Jinping is expected to step down by the 2030s. His desire to address the Taiwan issue before then raises some concerns. The formation and strengthening of a pro-independence sentiment within Taiwan, especially among the younger generation, significantly influences voting patterns and electoral behaviour. As these dynamics become more pronounced in the mid to late 2020s, the risk of potential conflict becomes more prevalent, prompting greater vigilance.

The economic disruptions can potentially generate far-reaching consequences, impacting regional and global economies alike. There will be no gainers from such a conflict, and the adverse impact will be far and wide. Hence, it is in everyone’s interest that the Taiwan imbroglio is resolved amicably.

NAVIGATING THE INVASION OF TAIWAN

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EXCLUSIVE CONVERSATION WITH FU-KUO LIU In my view, I see three specific areas of interest.

The first one, of course, is the IT and semiconductor relevant to geopolitical transformation which should result in an action plan.

The second area is the Indo-Pacific because India is now in a different position and obviously plays a much more significant role between China and the United States. This is not entirely unprecedented as, for long, India has served as one of the leaders of developing countries. Taiwan’s security is today the centre point of Asian security. As per American estimates based on different calculations, China may invade Taiwan by 2027.

Americans are more accurate in their prediction than us Taiwanese. Taiwan’s security should concern India as a major player in the Indo-Pacific.

The South China Sea has two fronts. The number one area is between China and individual Southeast Asian countries- the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei.

But there is another overshadowing factor- the US-China Strategic rivalry. As a result, China is trying to push the second area, which is the negotiation of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea.

Does India also share the American view?

The ASEAN bloc has not been able to conclude this COC, and there is unlikely to be much success in coming years too.

In Taiwan, this date is taken as a reference point, although we doubt whether the

Some countries like the Philippines have taken a harder line vis a vis China, especially with the current political dispensation in Manila, which is seeking to strengthen the age-old military ties with the U.S.

FU-KUO LIU

Director of the Taiwan Center for Security Studies.

EXCLUSIVE CONVERSATION WITH GENERAL RICHARD HU MARITIME SECURITY DIMENSION South China Sea has become a very important channel concerning energy security in this region and also has tremendous importance for future energy supplies.

This is especially relevant from the point of view of China’s desire to secure its energy supplies from the Middle East.

India can play a very important role in dominating the sea lanes of communications. China realises this and is planning on full-fledged strike groups, of which, in my opinion, they would need a minimum of six strike groups. The new map of the region released by China (in which vast territories of other countries are shown as Chinese) would not only raise tensions but also hurt the completion of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. Seeing what is happening in Ukraine today, my key concern is the security of Taiwan and its people- we

would try our best not to get into a similar situation. So we are looking forward to the wisdom from our friends, sharing insights concerning how to avoid Taiwan being trapped in that kind of situation.

And also, what would be in the best national interest and also the best way of national security in Taiwan?

Taiwanese people are already in a dialogue about how to boost our spirit of resistance.

Over the years, we have been exposed to such frequent violations of our territorial waters and air space by warships and fighter aircraft that we take them as a routine.

This could be, in a moment, turned into a real thing catching us by surprise. The question that always troubles us is whether, under the modern ISR of the 21st century, can China launch a surprise attack on Taiwan?

GENERAL RICHARD HU Deputy Director , Taiwan Center for Security Studies

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EXCLUSIVE CONVERSATION WITH HON-MIN YAU Why is the India-Taiwan Strategic Partnership important for Regional Stability?

which matches up with India’s Act East policy.

There have been a lot of signalling going around recently that merits attention- President Xi Jinping’s leadership at the BRICS, which saw an expansion and his absence from the G-20 summit in New Delhi, which quickly followed the former. Remember, last month, India, along with the U.S., Australia, and Japan, conducted the Malabar exercise for the first time around Sydney.

However, Taiwan, as a democracy, cannot force its businesses to choose their destination for investment. We can only work to fa-cilitate and to create a better environment in order to make them feel more comfortable for certain destinations.

The South China Sea has grown in strategic importance and is attracting the attention of many nations, from far and close, especially once China released its latest official map, which has provoked tensions and protests around the region.

Hence, I think it will be extremely important for India and Taiwan to really think about how to reduce all these barriers, not just tariff barriers, but also the non-tariff barriers, including investment, intellectual property protection to better facilitate the transmission of knowledge and information.

Taiwan’s biggest island, Taiping Island, is the largest of the naturally occurring Spratly islands in the South China Sea and has been under Taiwan’s administration for many, many years.

And given that more than 60% of international trade goes through the South China Sea, it will play a very important role in ensuring the stability of the region.

India-Taiwan strategic cooperation could cover different aspects.

The first one is about maritime security. A good measure of high security needs to be based on good intelligence. And I think enhancing the cooperation between India and Taiwan around this region will certainly contribute to this effort.

The second thing is that even though there’s no formal diplomatic cooperation or recognition between Taiwan and India, both sides should enhance their effort in terms of the intelligence exchange, which will increase the visibility of the region.

We could also think about conducting humanitarian disaster relief exercises to improve interoperability. We can’t wait until we have some kind of contingency.

For many years, the government has been promoting the New Southbound policy,

In the foreseeable future, a free trade agreement or bilateral agreement will be required to facilitate better economic cooperation. Before now, both parties have been looking for the opportunity based on each other’s comparative advantage. Now, the time has come to work towards a more complementary advantage. And I think Taiwan and India are mutually complimentary.

Speaking of roadblocks in the cooperation, to be honest, India has its own policy of strategic autonomy and the ‘One China Policy.’ This is the first challenge that we encounter.

No policy should be like a time capsule, and it should change with time. It is time for India to be more open and more flexible. There should be a willingness on the Indian side to participate in any kind of dialogue with Taiwan.

The start could be made through human exchanges or dialogues. In Taiwan, India is recognised as a big country and is well known; many Indians may confuse Taiwan with Thailand! Taiwan must be made more visible in India and gradually build an understanding of each other’s capabilities.

India has a vibrant civil society that has been promoting a dialogue with Taiwan but has not been able to influence the policymakers. Now that the Malabar exercise has shifted closer to the Pacific and the Taiwan straits, I view this as a major shift in India’s strategic posture vis a vis the South China Sea. We look forward to its positive continuation.

HON-MIN YAU

Associate Professor, National Defense University (Air Force) Taiwan

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EXCLUSIVE CONVERSATION WITH LT GEN G A V REDDY

There is huge potential between India and Taiwan to enhance bilateral cooperation. Taiwan, with its strategic role and significance in the Indo-Pacific region makes it imperative for India to give impetus to both trajectory and scale of cooperation, to broaden this relationship to a comprehensives strategic level.

unexplored. After the 2018 bilateral investment agreement, the logical next step was FTA, which has not happened. Both countries should now pursue this goal with greater vigour to facilitate trade, commercial activities and even people-to-people contacts and greater exchanges between Thinks Tanks.

Historically, there have been certain hurdles in Indo-Taiwan relations, mostly at the diplomatic level, but none are so insurmountable that they cannot be overcome. It is now the time to address these issues and move forward.

The vicious environment in South China Sea is a matter of security concern in the whole region including maritime concerns for India.

I must also mention here that India’s Act East Policy is fully aligned with Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy.

Recently, the political messaging by India to Taiwan is an indication, where in the three former chiefs of the Indian Army, Air Force and Navy were present together in a symposium at Taiwan.

The geo-political and geo-economic dynamics in the region provides ample opportunities for both in the Trade and Commerce domain to grab and benefit. Approximately 60 per cent of India’s trade goes through the South China Sea, further, a major part of that trade transits through Taiwan Strait. Thus, the potential in trade between the two countries is presently grossly

The Chinese belligerence and wilful violation of international rules and norms adversely affects huge trade potential of the entire region.Also, Taipei Economic and Cultural Center in India (TECC) should seriously consider opening another branch at Bangalore in addition to recent additions at Mumbai and Chennai. Bangalore being technological hub and ideally suited for more collaborative efforts between Indian and Taiwan technology industries, there is an urgent need to facilitate the intent by having TECC branch at Bangalore city.

India and Taiwan need to focus on broadening strategic relations in trade and security, by decoupling from China.

LT GEN G A V REDDY

AVSM, SC, VSM (Retd) is the former Deputy Chief of Integrated Defense Staff , DG-DIA and Strategic Advisor at Synergia Foundation.

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EXCLUSIVE CONVERSATION WITH SUNIL ACHARYA COOPERATION ON SEMICONDUCTORS I think one of the key aspects is that most of the interactions have been more responsive between Taiwan and India. I think it is time for us to look at long-term and futuristic relationship planning in all three areas-around security, industry, as well as from an economic growth perspective.

I come from a heavily accentuated semiconductor industry background. So, we have been looking at technology as something that will enable stronger and deeper relationships between the two countries.

Generally, the perspective from the industry is we are collaborating more on quantity. Right now, we see a lot of news from Taiwan talking about how they would like to do some diversification with the relationship with India, most of it is seated around production, looking at how to secure supply chains and production.

My opinion is - this is an old story; I think we should look at how we can build stronger relationships for the future by creating more innovations. By that, what I specifically mean is looking at specific programmes to target collaboration on research and development, a joint creation of new innovation, especially in the security space.

I think there’s a huge opportunity with India’s space progress. And also on the industrial side, I will reiterate, there’s a lot of news about production, about Foxconn.

At the ground level, a lot of trust-building needs to happen in the Indian industry. Taiwan should not be perceived as a proxy to China or Chinese companies to enter India or basically leverage India for accessing international markets.

I think from an Indian industry perspective, we are looking for more collaboration to innovate together, even on the academic front. There are about 3,000 Indian students in Taiwan right now.

We would like to see more of Taiwanese students in India to collaborate on research. So, we lay the foundation for a new supply network or supply chain, not restructuring; restructuring seems like taking

SUNIL ACHARYA Strategist, Jindal Semiconductor Ltd.

something from somewhere and putting it elsewhere. It also doesn’t sound very good, maybe for our big neighbour, but recreating new supply chains for new products and solutions that can support the world.

I think that is the direction we have to take rather than being reactive and start planning more forward-looking. I think there is a tremendous opportunity with Taiwan and India. But just like Taiwan has a policy wherein you don’t want over-dependence on any one country, the Indian government will also look at it that way.

There will be new options for semiconductor manufacturing which are being explored. As we speak, right now, there is Korea, and there is the U.S. So, although we may not get the latest technology, it is creating an alternative option.

So I think it is an opportune time. Economic collaboration and collaboration on the research and development and academic front will actually lay more trust and respect between the two industries and also an opportunity for us to grow in the long term, making it a very strong relationship.

I think the Taiwan side needs to make an effort to position India not as a partner where a lot of manufacturing and production or low-end activity is going to happen but that Taiwan is willing to make investments and collaborate on bleeding edge, high-tech. I also have been in several roundtables with the Taiwanese groups.

The general perception I get as an industry person in India is that Taiwan is looking for India to develop as an ecosystem.

But I think, yes, the times have changed; we need to look at each other as being able to collaborate on future technologies, which will help in both maritime security and general security in terms of national security or territorial security.

We have lots of American companies and European companies who are doing cutting-edge technology research here in India. It would be a missed bus in case Taiwan is not willing to step up on, you know, collaborating on bleeding edge technology and not keep worrying about IP. No, India will not wait for ten years; we will also look for alternatives.

GEOPOLITICS

THE G20 SUMMIT: AN APPRAISAL

The G20 final September summit was a diplomatic and strategic success for India, despite differences between members.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION RES E A RCH

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he finale of India’s unique yearlong G20 presidency unfolded on September 9th and 10th. With fountains, sculptures, litup monuments, vibrant G20 banners, a variety of plants, and cutouts of langurs to deter monkeys, Delhi rolled out the red carpet for the G20 summit. The government pulled out all the stops to showcase India’s global hospitality. Although the mood was somewhat dimmed by the absence of the Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Putin of Russia, enough heavy-weight leaders were present to make up for their absence.

The September summit and its concluding Leader’s Declaration marked a success for India’s G20 presidency since there was a consensus on all the outcomes. It resonated with India’s aspirations to become a leading nation in the regional and global arena and bridge developing country concerns with global decision-making.

INDIA’S AGENDA FOCUS AREAS India’s focus areas for its G20 agenda included progress on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), digital governance, climate finance, debt sustainability, and women-led development. To the host’s satisfaction, the final Declaration covered all these issues. As regards SDGs, the G20 members committed to take collective action for effective and timely implementation of the G20 2023 Action Plan to Accelerate Progress on the SDGs.

A major challenge faced by India in its G20 presidency was the opposing agendas of the West on the one hand and Russia and China on the other hand, and Russia and China objecting to other members’ proposals to refer to the Ukraine war in the G20.

The Declaration recognized the role of digital transformation as well as accessible financing to support developing countries in their domestic pursuance of SDGs. The members committed to enhancing macroeconomic and financial stability in light of the cost-of-living crisis and the high volatility prevailing in food and energy markets. Noting that tightening financial conditions could worsen debt, inflation, and geo-economic tensions, the Declaration emphasized the need for well-calibrated macroeconomic, fiscal, financial, and structural policies.

Digital governance was the centrepiece of India’s G20 agenda as India seeks to play a leading role in digital development and economy. The Declaration noted the potential of digital transformation and digital public infrastructure (DPI) comprising shared digital systems built and used by both the public and private sectors.

It welcomed India’s proposal to set up a Global Digital Public Infrastructure Repository - a virtual repository for DPI. Climate finance was a key consideration for developing countries. The G20 members welcomed the recommendations of the Sustainable Finance Working Group for mobilizing resources for climate finance to

THE G20 SUMMIT: AN APPRAISAL

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support countries in their green transition in accordance with their circumstances. However, the members did not undertake any specific action plan or commitments.

pation and ensure equal access to affordable and quality education.

Debt sustainability was a significant concern for developing nations. The Declaration emphasized the need to address debt vulnerabilities in low and middle-income countries and for a resolution of debt treatment for countries like Ghana, Zambia, Ethiopia, and Sri Lanka. However, no specific undertakings were made apart from calling for stepping up implementation of the Common Framework for Debt Treatments launched by the G20 in November 2020 to help countries restructure their debt and deal with insolvency issues.

A major challenge faced by India in its G20 presidency was the opposing agendas of the West on the one hand and Russia and China on the other hand, and Russia and China objecting to other members’ proposals to refer to the Ukraine war in the G20. This reference would also include its impact on the global economy, supply-chain disruptions, and human rights violations.

Russia and China objected to this on the basis that the Ukraine war is a geopolitical issue and the G20 is an economic forum. However, in the final summit in September, the G20 leaders agreed on a joint declaration with 100% consensus from all the countries on all 83 paragraphs in the Declaration. This marked a substantial success for the G20 and India as President. Over 200 hours of negotiations helped bring about the consensus.

Another topical issue that was covered was the need to reform global financial institutions and multilateral development banks (MDBs). The Declaration underscored the need to improve the representation of developing countries in global economic and financial decision-making and for MDBs to provide increased finance to developing countries to tackle challenges like poverty.

India was keen to create a global framework for crypto-currency. The members endorsed the recommendations of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) for regulating and monitoring crypto-assets and markets and the roadmap developed by the IMF and the FSB for a comprehensive regulatory framework. This road map would be taken forward in an October meeting between finance ministers and central bank governors.

The members recognized the need to accelerate the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction by improving countries’ capacities, financing, investment, and knowledge sharing and cooperating in making infrastructure systems more disaster and climate-resilient. Towards women-led development, the members affirmed their commitment to the Brisbane goal to reduce the gap in labour force partici-

ROADBLOCKS TO THE DECLARATION

The G20 Leaders’ Declaration acknowledged that the G20 is a forum for economic cooperation and not a platform to resolve geopolitical and security issues.

Yet, it also acknowledged that such issues significantly affect the world economy and highlighted the impacts of the Ukraine war on global food and energy security, supply chains, and macro-financial stability while confirming that there are different views and assessments of the situation.

In addition to India, several global South countries played a role in convincing Russia to agree to the language on Ukraine, which emphasized that states must “refrain from the threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition”. The language was much softer than last year’s G20, where the joint statement at Bali deplored Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, condemned the war, and called for Russia’s withdrawal. For India, the language on Ukraine marked a diplomatic success because it managed to balance the concerns of the two opposing

THE G20 SUMMIT: AN APPRAISAL

agendas and did not explicitly condemn the invasion by Russia, India’s longstanding ally. Another major concern for India was bringing forward aspirations and issues that were particularly pertinent to developing nations but also had global resonance. These included ways to revive the global economy after COVID-19 and Ukraine, starting a dialogue between Russia and Ukraine, and improving food security in the wake of the collapsed grain deal, which caused global food prices to rise.

There were also difficulties in pledging commitments towards climate change due to varying levels of commitment and resources of different members, making it difficult to reach a consensus.

ABSENCE OF CHINESE AND RUSSIAN LEADERS Xi Jinping, the leader of China, and Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, were markedly absent from the G20 September summit. Xi has attended every G20 summit since he took office in 2013. However, Chinese Premier Li Quiang attended the G20 summit in his place. Beijing did not specify a reason for Xi’s absence.

Speculated reasons include avoiding uncomfortable conversations amidst growing tensions with other governments, including the U.S., Japan, and regional neighbours.

Many countries attending the summit are not pleased with China’s recent map update, which claims several disputed regions as part of China. Beijing also faces pressure over its close relationship with Russia and its refusal to condemn the invasion of Ukraine.

There have been speculations about Xi’s alleged health issues as well as Xi’s absence being a snub at India as G20 host, in light of tensions between the two countries. His absence could also highlight his increasing disillusionment with existing institutions of global governance as Beijing sees more scope for exerting its influence in other multilateral forums such as BRICs. President Putin’s decision to skip the event likely stems from an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) against him. India is not a signatory of the ICC, which means that it would not be obliged to comply with the arrest warrant. However, it is possible that his attending the summit may have put India under diplomatic pressure.

A NEW TRADE ROUTE The biggest bonanza for India, if the project fructifies, in light of the latest state of unrest in the Middle East, was the launch of the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC). Billed at approximately $ 20 billion, it is an ambitious multi-modal network of roads, sea routes and railway networks aiming to connect the services and goods between Europe and Asia through the Middle East in a sustainable and cost-effective manner.

It is clearly an attempt to strengthen the leadership of the U.S. and EU to boost supply chain solutions as a counterweight to China’s BRI.

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Since the launch was timed with the G20 New Delhi Summit, it underscored India’s central role in this project, forecasted to be the third-largest consumer market by 2027. IMEC was launched by US President Joe Biden, along with leaders of India, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The project would include the European Union, France, Italy, and Germany. It would comprise two corridors – one linking India to the Gulf States and another linking the Gulf States to Europe.

For India and the U.S., which compete with China for geopolitical influence, it is of strategic interest.

OTHER GAINS FOR INDIA India successfully walked a tightrope between different geopolitical and economic fault lines of the world. During its presidency, India forcefully advocated for the African Union (AU) to become a Permanent Member of the G20. The AU joining the G20 allows 55 African countries to be represented on a leading platform for global financial and economic deliberations.

The G20 in turn stands to benefit from Africa’s unique experience, particularly because its resources play an integral role in the global economy. Further, it is also of strategic interest to India since it improves its diplomatic and strategic relations with African countries as major world powers jostle to strengthen their position in the African continent, particularly the U.S. and China. Stronger ties with the AU are also in India’s economic interests since they contribute to increased trade and investment. Africa is also a source of energy security for India, with its major oil and gas reserves.

Assessment The final summit of India’s G20 presidency was a significant success, given that there was 100% consensus from the members on all 83 paragraphs in the final Declaration, despite prevailing differences. Further, the language on the Ukraine war managed to balance diverging concerns and reflected a diplomatic success, particularly since Russia was persuaded to consent to its inclusion.

India brought forward focus areas particularly pertinent to the Global South for consideration and deliberation on a global platform. It also consulted Global South countries about their concerns so that they could be better represented during the G20. Moreover, Global South countries played an important role in the negotiations, particularly in persuading Russia to agree to the Declaration.

Different levels of commitment and resources prevented the members from consenting to specific undertakings in several areas. However, achieving a consensus over these diverse focus areas was itself a feat and will ensure that India’s G20 presidency continues as a legacy.

INDIA’S NEIGHBOURHOOD

AFGHANISTAN: A BITTER SURVIVOR

Two years after the hasty, disorganised exit of the Americans and their allies, Afghanistan, though isolated, seems to be holding out and surviving rather well!

Lt Gen G A V Reddy AVSM, SC, VSM (Retd) is the former Deputy Chief of Integrated Defense Staff, DG-DIA and Strategic Advisor at Synergia Foundation.

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ut off from the global village and diplomatically not formally recognised by any nation except China (13 September 2023), Kabul under the phlegmatic Taliban seems to be holding out quite well for itself if you for a moment ignore the human rights situation.

It claims to have its Afghani stronger than the Pakistani Rupee trading around Afghani 80 to a dollar (in comparison to nearly Pak Rs 280 per dollar!)

The reasons are not far to seek. As Conrad Schetter describes in a paper titled “The Bazaar Economy of Afghanistan,” published by the Centre for Development Research, over the decades of war, Afghanistan has developed an informal economy, which can be called a ‘bazaar economy.’ The general framework of the Afghan ‘bazaar economy’ is that the capitalistic free-market economy regulates all economic activities in the absence of any state regulation. Private trade constitutes the most important economic activity, while the production of real goods and the influence of a public sphere almost completely disappear.

Furthermore, the ‘bazaar economy’ on the Afghan territory is not contained by its national borders but interwoven with the world market through an informal transnational network that is linked to Pakistan, Iran and Central Asian countries through smuggling net-

There is no alternative for India to regain a semblance of strategic presence in Afghanistan other than to engage with the Taliban. Indian timely initiatives will pave the path for opening formal communication channel between the Taliban and the Indian government.

Taliban is on record stating, “None can change one’s neighbours or region; we must accept this reality and have peaceful coexistence”. works, working openly under benign and corrupt government officials. Diplomatically, Kabul is not as isolated as one would imagine.

While it may be true that only China has so far recognised the Taliban regime and its closest mentor, Pakistan is yet to recognise, the Kabul regime is conducting business of state with its three closest ‘friends ‘- China, Russia and Pakistan. In all the diplomatic missions of the previous Ghani regime have been taken over by the Taliban in 15 countries which are now functioning. India had closed its Kabul embassy in August 2021 after Taliban forces entered the capital, which was later ransacked by mobs.

One year later, the embassy was reopened, which was marked by India sending a Technical Team with humanitarian assistance to the people of Afghanistan.

AFGHANISTAN: A BITTER SURVIVOR

A STRATEGIC LOCATION As we all know from our geography lessons, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan is a landlocked country located in the heart of South-Central Asia bounded by Iran in the West, Pakistan and India in the South and East, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan in the North, also shares a short border with Xinjiang, China in the extreme Northeast. Any ambitious invader knows that once the Afghans have been crushed, the fruits of the fertile river plains of India are there for the taking.

Not surprisingly, Afghanistan has been the gateway for all land invasions of the Indian subcontinent. Only once the British Empire had spread its wings right up to the gates of Kabul did the invasions finally stop in the 18th and 19th centuries until the USSR came a calling, with tanks to boot, in 1979.

No country has fought out more invaders of all hues than the stoic Afghan- from Alexander the Great’s phalanxes to the modern marvel of the US Army. The country’s recent history has seen it ravaged by the Soviet invasion in 1979, the Civil War, the rise and fall of the Taliban, the US invasion in 2001 and the resurgence of the Taliban now.

As a result of these traumatic events, Afghanistan is now attempting to address the devastation that constant warfare has created. Afghanistan has been governed by nearly every system of government over the past century, including a monarchy, republic, theocracy and communism.

NAVIGATING THE MAZE OF AFGHANISTAN Never an easy country to govern, riven by fierce tribal fractions, today’s Afghanistan faces an uphill task as the Taliban try to get a grip over their country and make it work.

Right up there is the issue of security. While conflict has been a part of the daily life of every Afghani for centuries, the injection of modern and more lethal technology has meant that no part, however remote, can feel secure from the fighting. While there is no external player or clear adversary today, the inherently suspicious and conspiracy-prone Afghans have always looked for enemies even when none existed! One just has to look at their current state of relations with Pakistan, once their greatest supporter, to get an idea of their naive way of dealing with external diplomacy.

A loosely controlled state becomes a haven for nonstate actors- look at Somalia and even the sub-Sahara states in Africa. Afghanistan is threatening to go in the same direction. The internal situation remains delicate for Kabul, which enjoys only a tenuous hold over its remote outlying districts. Taliban, a loose conglomeration of various allied groups, during the early years of 2001 to 2005, was effective only in South and Southeast Afghanistan because of the non-presence of security forces there. However, from 2006 onwards, the Taliban ex-

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panded all over Afghanistan. The other groups include Al Qaeda, LeT, ISIS and IMU. The alliances existed with religious groups and criminal gangs, including the drug mafia, funded largely by narcotics and extortion.

The recent epoch of violence has mainly been associated with the phenomenon of the rise of Islamic militancy, whose effects have transcended Afghanistan’s borders. The ISPK, TTP and a host of other radical militant groups continue to take shelter within Afghan territory despite the promises made at the Doha Accord.

Situated at the crossroads of South, Southwest, and Central Asia, the conflict in Afghanistan has ramifications throughout the region, especially the escalation of religious extremism, which threatens peace and stability in the entire region. In fact, one could pin the rise of religious fundamentalism in Pakistan, Xinjiang in China and Uzbekistan in some ways to Afghanistan’s own conflicts. This is a real danger that every one of its neighbours fear the most. The recent spurt of violence in Baluchistan, KPK province and the Chitral region of Pakistan is an indication of things to come.

Till the late 1970s, Afghanistan was a progressive state with aspirations of joining the rest of the world in equality of genders and a liberal, secular outlook despite a deep belief in Islam as the national religion. However, the Taliban phenomenon, with its roots in the extreme form of Deobandi Islam, changed all this, driving the country back into the medieval ages. With the country fractured into various factions according to tribal affiliations, whatever state organs and institutions had taken root rapidly collapsed and were mingled with the dust of destroyed cities.

Poor governance with no accountability and no strong national institutions to act independently of political influences has long become a reality in modern. Devoid of incorporating indigenous knowledge into policymaking is an important handicap towards addressing some of Afghanistan’s challenges. To exacerbate the situation, the Taliban is failing to engage with the international community and demonstrate flexibility in improving the livelihoods of millions of Afghans.

The biggest concern of the global community, including that of Kabul’s few friends (Pakistan, China, Russia), is the sheer violation of human rights, especially those of women and children, that remains a constant plank of Taliban policy, whatever its cost. Every day, a fresh fatwa is issued imposing one restriction after another upon the women- in social behaviour, in dressing, in education and in employment. No amount of international outcry or outrage makes the slightest difference to the ruling clergy.

All the aforementioned factors collude to impact most severely on one particular aspect of governancethe economy. It is little surprise that the country grapples with an array of formidable challenges such as a tenuous security environment, overwhelming dependence on foreign largesse, deplorable economic growth, widening social and ethnic divide and most important-

AFGHANISTAN: A BITTER SURVIVOR

ly, a fundamentalist regime now at the helm of affairs.

All these challenges point toward an uphill task for Afghanistan to sustain itself as a stable and peaceful state.

No one can deny the tangible progress that Afghanistan achieved during the presence of a US-led mission in Afghanistan, yet the return of the Taliban as the de facto regime is reversing these gains. Afghanistan is back into an abysmal scenario resembling the chaos and disorder during the previous Taliban regime and the preceding civil war years.

THE GREAT GAME CONTINUES? The two-decades-long international intervention to bring stability (destabilise!!) in Afghanistan was, at best, a poorly thought out and even less efficiently carried out enterprise. There was no vision with diverse approaches, the military alliance had its own national caveats and goals with differences amongst troops, the aid delivery was ineffective, including diversion of funds; hence, there was no unity of command in peacekeeping or warfight efforts. Therefore, it is not surprising that the international interventions, conducted at a high cost of lives and treasure, failed to democratise or stabilise Afghanistan. Regional competition by Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey and CAR - all playing proxy games in Afghanistan- added to an already volatile mix.

Economically, the country is a basket case but miraculously continues to trundle along as the hardy Afghan has learnt to survive on his own with the basics of life without the aid of the state. Being naturally innovative, the Pashtun have energetically exploited the porous borders of Pakistan and Iran to run thriving smuggling rings selling goods being transited through Pakistan in the grey markets of Pakistan itself and hoarding huge reserves of dollars illegally picked up from the informal currency markets of Karachi and the frontier provinces of Pakistan. Even sugar is being smuggled in huge quantities from Pakistan into Afghanistan and beyond into CAR at enormous profits.

Afghani grey market enterprises are playing havoc with the already crippled Pakistani economy. As a result, it is commonplace in Pakistan to put all the blame for their economic woes on their Afghan guest who have long overstayed their welcome.China understands the economic potential of Afghanistan and is keen to incorporate it as a part of its CPEC project in Pakistan.

For this to fructify, it needs peace between Kabul and Islamabad and stability along the tumultuous Durand Line (not recognised by Kabul!). China’s engagement with the Taliban is to prevent it from becoming an arena of geopolitical competition, falling back into the orbit of the West and preventing the spread of terrorism, separatism, and extremism to the vulnerable Xinjiang province.

China is wielding soft power by fostering diplomatic alliances, aims to position China as a responsible global power and to counterbalance the influence of the United States in the region. Today, Pakistan finds itself in a unique position- its decades of investment in the Taliban appear to be sinking as rapidly as the Pakistani

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Rupee because Kabul has decidedly shown a very independent mind that goes contrary to Pakistani interests.

The status of TTP within Afghanistan and the immunity they seem to be enjoying is just one of the irritants bedevilling AfPak relations.

FROM THE INDIAN PERSPECTIVE The geolocation of Afghanistan is crucial for a longterm strategy of India, which implies ensuring stability in the region & preventing extremist Taliban from entering J&K. A democratic Afghanistan with sustained peace and stability is in the Indian interest. The economic interest of India includes Afghanistan forming the land bridge to CAR with its huge reserves of minerals and oil. India’s efforts at developing the Chabahar Port in Iran are based on the fact that it provides India with the most viable option for gaining access to Afghanistan, bypassing Pakistan, which has on many occasions refused to provide land transit to Indian goods bound for Afghanistan. Militarily, a stable Afghanistan acts as a counterweight to Pakistan in the region.

The fall of the Taliban regime and the subsequent establishment of interim authority in December 2001 led to the upgradation of Indian representation in Afghanistan from the liaison office to the Embassy in March 2002. Besides a mission in Kabul, India had four consulates at Mazar-e-Sharif, Herat, Kandahar and Jalalabad.

India’s role and active engagement in the Bonn Conference of 2001 was positively received.

Since then, India has followed a policy of high-level engagement with Afghanistan, ranging from humanitarian, financial and project assistance in terms of building the country’s shattered infrastructure, capacity building and participation in international efforts aimed at reconciliation and economic rebuilding of Afghanistan. Political support in terms of Panchayat Raj system in rural Afghanistan and capacity building in remote areas was the focus of Indian support.

The economic support included trade investments, projects construction such as roads, railways, Parliament building, and hospitals for the citizens of Afghanistan. The social support to Afghanistan predominantly included women empowerment and child development in the education and health sectors. India emerged as Afghanistan’s largest regional aid donor in the post-9/11 era.

Till 2021, India had spent almost $3 billion on various developmental and reconstruction projects in Afghanistan. In a bid to carve a niche in the ‘new’ Afghanistan, New Delhi employed the winning hearts and minds (WHAM) strategy and insulated itself from military matters. As a result of its civilian-centric policies, India was perceived by Afghans as a friendly neighbour committed to Afghanistan’s peace and development.

While some would call all this effort and investment as so much money down the drain, the fact is that India’s good intentions are well appreciated by the Afghan people and even the Taliban would recognise the hon-

AFGHANISTAN: A BITTER SURVIVOR

esty in India’s efforts. The fact that the current Taliban regime is interacting with New Delhi on various issues is indicative of that acceptance.

As long as the Western coalition secured Afghanistan, India apparently opted to deal only with the democratically elected government in Kabul. Not having engaged with the Taliban over the last two decades invariably meant that when the Afghan state collapsed in 2021, India faced its 1996 Afghan moment once again. In a panic, India brought the shutter down on its Kabul embassy and flew the staff home, a move that was severely criticised in India.

There is no alternative for India to regain a semblance of strategic presence in Afghanistan other than to engage with the Taliban. Indian timely initiatives will pave the path for opening formal communication channels between the Taliban and the Indian government.

Taliban is on record stating, “None can change one’s neighbours or region; we must accept this reality and have peaceful coexistence”.

Indian food aid to Afghanistan has created an opening to begin its direct engagement with the Taliban regime. Keeping with its civilian-centric strategy, India must continue liberal food aid to Afghanistan, as per MoU signed with the UN World Food Programme (WFP) to arrange food supply distribution. Afghanistan still faces an uphill task of managing the shortage of medicines and healthcare facilities; India can step in more concertedly and lay the foundation for a renewed strategic footing under the auspices of the Taliban regime. This would certainly help India to preserve the goodwill it has earned in Afghanistan over the last two decades. India now needs to move beyond these assistance-driven measures and carve herself a strategic niche in Afghanistan. Afghanistan’s deteriorating ties with Pakistan may be an apt entry point.

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India and Afghanistan’s other regional neighbours must influence the Taliban to form an inclusive government to gain diplomatic recognition. India must facilitate dialogue with SAARC and SCO so that enough leverage is exerted on the Taliban for the inclusion of representatives belonging to minority ethnic factions within its government.

Assessment Economic recovery is fundamental for a stable Afghanistan as it faces high unemployment, migration and displacement levels. There are no signs of a significant resumption of reconstruction activities and implementation of regional connectivity projects with neighbours, including Central Asia, for early economic recovery. This has to be corrected if Afghanistan has to be stabilised. However, the first move has to come from Kabul, where the Mullahs must make some concessions on their rigid policies concerning women’s rights for the world to reciprocate with financial openings.

Staying away from the Taliban is not an option for India. It is only through a pragmatic and functional relationship with the Taliban that India can capitalise on the Taliban’s disenchantment with Pakistan and thus tilt the balance in its favour.

India must work together with other like-minded nations to ensure a regional framework for engaging with the Taliban regime is worked out so that Afghanistan does not roll over into yet another phase of conflict and turmoil – creating regional instability.

SECURITY

INDIA -FRANCE: RAFALES AND BEYOND

France has proved a reliable partner for decades, and there is increasing convergence in our world views. The momentum generated by wide-ranging agreements must not falter.

This article is written by Ranjan Mathai, Former Foreign Secretary of India, Ambassador to Israel, France and High Commisioner to UK.

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he pictures of Indian armed forces’ contingents marching down the Champs Elysees on July 14 this year brought back memories of a similar occasion in 2009. As India’s Ambassador to France, I had the singular honour of seeing a Maratha Light Infantry contingent lead the parade when I accompanied the then Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, to the French National Day celebrations. Our Strategic Partnership with France was then just over ten years old but was already delivering good results for India.

REINVIGORATING THE BONDS Prime Minister Modi and French President Macron did well to commemorate the 25th anniversary this year, noting that the partnership began ‘in a world of change and uncertainty” but was “resilient in the darkest storms and bold and ambitious in riding the high tides of opportunities”! The Joint Statement issued on July 14 highlighted our “shared values…; belief in sovereignty and strategic autonomy; abiding faith in multilateralism’… and” quest for a multi-polar world”.

It was a pleasure to join Synergia’s dialogue with Maurice Gordault-Montaigne, President Chirac’s Diplomatic Advisor when I arrived in France in 2007. We concurred that both our countries acknowledge the special contribution of President Chirac in foreseeing

In 2021, the then French Defence Minister, Florence Parly, described the Rafale as an “incredible sovereign tool” that gave India an edge in the region. She noted that it” takes a lot of confidence for India to bet on France and a lot of confidence too for France to share with India, a capability close to the core of our sovereignty, and our strategic autonomythe result of investments over decades the ‘world of change’ as he led the way to a new India-France Strategic Partnership and that the subsequent leadership in both countries remained resilient and ambitious and indeed rode ‘high tides of opportunities’.

SKY IS THE LIMIT The sheer range of the “List of Outcomes” from PM Modi’s visit testifies how much has been achieved. It includes digital technologies, cutting-edge scientific research, cyber security, space applications, civil nuclear energy, including Small and Advanced Modular Reactors, civil aviation, health, and climate change, to name just some.

The much-anticipated deal for the Rafales for the Indian Navy was not announced, as it was still under negotiation. Similarly, with the joint development of

INDIA -FRANCE: RAFALES AND BEYOND

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a combat aircraft engine. When finalized, these deals, along with those announced, viz: the industrial cooperation for Indian-made helicopter engines and additional Scorpene submarines, will lift India’s capabilities to a higher level. Even today, jet engine technology is the preserve of just three or four countries, as China too has learnt. However, more than the deals, it is the French experience that India can benefit from.

In 2021, the then French Defence Minister, Florence Parly, welcoming the first IAF Rafales in Ambala, described the warplane as an “incredible sovereign tool” that gave India an edge in the region. She noted that it” takes a lot of confidence for India to bet on France and a lot of confidence too for France to share with India, a capability close to the core of our sovereignty, and our strategic autonomy- the result of investments over decades”.

A LESSON ON STRATEGIC AUTONOMY If India is to acquire true strategic autonomy, it will also need to be unwavering in making “investments over decades”, with French-style political consensus over defence. The story of how Marcel Bloch, who had founded Dassault (which makes the Rafales and Mirages the IAF uses today and also made the Ouragons which were the IAF’s first jets in 1953!) survived Nazi torture in World War ii and then rebuilt his company into a world leader in aviation technology is truly inspiring.

This came about during a period when the political and bureaucratic leadership of post-war France demonstrated resolve to preserve strategic autonomy in a world dominated by two superpowers- the US and the USSR. Irrespective of their political ideology, all French governments invested in technologically advanced defence industries, in both the public and private sector, consolidating them, when necessary, through mergers and encouraging heavy emphasis on R&D. Innovative bureaucratic measures like public funding of prototypes and even pre-production contracts to the companies by the French air force, ensured that their aerospace companies became world champions.

President De Gaulle epitomized this French drive for strategic autonomy, systematically ensuring there should be no enduring external or internal constraints on the ability to make decisions in the national interest.

Therefore, France built an independent nuclear deterrent with powerful land and air combat forces and a blue-water navy. It also became a world leader in civil nuclear and space technology. It put its money where its mouth was and regularly spent 5-6% of its GDP on defence in the early years of build-up.

But the military programs were just one part of a great economic and technological transformation, with industrial retooling and a 500% increase in R&D expenditure. Defence expenditure thus was subsumed into the rapid economic growth of the 1960s and became, if anything, a catalyst rather than a burden for the exchequer.

The new industries in defence, nuclear energy and space built up large and diverse vendor bases in electronics, computer applications, electro-optics, new materials, etc. Many emerged from the MSME sector, and there were regular two-way synergetic exchanges with the country’s top-notch technology institutes. That is how strategic self-reliance is built if we want to learn from the experience of others.

India needs self-reliance as it faces the strategic challenge of a real two-front threat scenario. It cannot rely on allies to do the heavy lifting required to achieve the capability for deterrence- and winning wars if they are imposed on us.

Our defence requirements will have to be given budgetary priority, and decision-makers must be empowered to function without fear of being targeted later as part of political vendettas. This calls for generating political consensus on defence, and the government must lead the process.

Given India’s steady ascent in the global hierarchy of power, our options are increasing as much as the challenges we face. France has proved a reliable partner for decades, and there is increasing convergence in our world views.

President Macron has even shown an interest in engaging with BRICS. We must ensure that the momentum generated by the wide-ranging agreements- on both bilateral and global issues, reached in Paris in July 2023 is not allowed to falter in the years ahead.

RANJAN MATHAI Former Foreign Secretary of India, Ambassador to Israel, France and High Commisioner to UK

TECHNOLOGY

GNSS: CONTESTATIONS IN THE SKIES

GNSSs are the expanding crux of national sovereignty; India needs a directed tactical approach to face up to the competition.

Diya Celine Simon Research Associate in Synergia Foundation with a Bachelor’s in Media and Communications, English Literature and Psychology from Christ (Deemed to be University).

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n layperson’s terms, the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) uses radio waves to track a position. It signifies a constellation of satellites launched into the Earth’s orbit.

They transmit position and timing data signals to GNSS receivers in ground stations to determine location. These constellations use radio frequencies in the L-Band and transmit their signals through a complex series of trilateration calculations between three segments (space, control and user).

Incidentally, when the USSR shocked the world with the launch of Sputnik 1 into a low orbit in 1957, GNSS was a fledgling technology applied for the first time in a practical manner in space endeavours.

A PATHBREAKING TECHNOLOGY GNSS services are a way for nations to establish soft power in geopolitics. The GNSS applications fall under five categories: location, navigation, tracking, mapping, and timing. When GNSS was conceptualised, apparently, the primary areas of use were in military navigation and target acquisition. In 1983, understanding the technology’s commercial potential, satellite positioning services were made available globally for commercial uses, and it is that legacy that we see on our smartphones

Investment in Beidou goes as far back as 1955. Today, Beijing enjoys centralised control over the location, navigation and timing details, making the military, administration and intelligence systems resilient even in times of hostility. At the geopolitical level, Beidou takes into account the system’s integration with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the relationship with Russia and the E.U., security concerns, and relative accuracy. today, guiding us around our cities. However, the GNSS for military applications is far superior to the commercial version and globally, driving advancements and connected competition.

Presently, GNSS use swings from the unique to the absurd-lost extreme adventurists rescuing themselves from near-death situations in the remote wilderness to concerned pet parents tracking their lost pet babies.

Our smartphones and smartwatches automatically determine our current time and location, while taxi operators watch wayward drivers and cars moonlighting on the sly. Every international flying today is banking upon GNSS aided by Regional Satellite-Based Augmentation Systems (SBAS) for Position, Navigation, Timing (PNT) and vertical guidance so that you land at your destination at the ETA specified on the boarding card

GNSS: CONTESTATIONS IN THE SKIES

and your anxious friends and relatives track your progress on Flight Tracker apps on their smartphones!

Four GNSS currently rule the world, functioning at full operational capacity (FOC) with global coverage, Of course, the U.S. NAVSTAR Global Positioning System (GPS) is the leader. As of June 2021, it has 31 operational satellites, including old and new satellites and on-orbit spares. It sets the gold standard for dual-use technology and is operated by the U.S. Department of Defence (DOD). It allows free commercial use, which it can blank out at the switch of a button, as India realised during the Kargil War. Russia’s Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) features a constellation of 24 satellites and is operated by Roscosmos State Corporation (a department of the Russian Aerospace Defense Forces). The Russian satellite design boasts longer design life, sturdier hardware, superior electronics and radios.

The European Commission and European Space Agency launched Galileo in 2011 and went live in 2016.

It comprises 26 satellites in orbit. Unlike the other available GNSSs, Galileo is operated by civilians and 28 partner nations. The Public Regulated Service security model legally governs and safeguards the hardware and software’s intellectual property.

BeiDou, the Chinese GNSS, was launched in 2000 and is operated by the China National Space Administration (CNSA). In 2020, the constellation reached a total of 35 satellites.

Aside from these global coverage constellations, Japan and India have GNSSs that give them regional coverage. Japan’s Quasi-Zenith Satellite System (QZSS), launched in 2010, is operated by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and covers the areas between Japan and Australia. It uses L1 bandwidth (primary GPS bandwidth), and the regional constellation has four satellites in orbit. The Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) launched in 2013, now known as NavIC, includes eight satellites in orbit and uses L5 bandwidth. The constellation covers regions to the west (Saudi Arabia), north and east (all of China), and far south (Mozambique and Western Australia).

DEMYSTIFYING GNSS GNSS performance credibility rests on four pillars-signal accuracy, integrity (or user confidence) in system operations, continuity of signal transmission, and availability of the system services.

Developing and investing in GNSS technology became increasingly invaluable for nations to maintain sovereignty. In 1954, a Chinese ballistic missile fired over the Taiwan Straits reportedly lost its way when the U.S. switched off its GPS. For example, a disruption in GPS signals (U.S. GNSS) caused the People’s Liberation Army to lose track of their ballis-

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tic missiles fired over the Taiwan Strait (First Taiwan Strait Crisis). The systemic malfunction made their government realise the vulnerability of relying on external positioning and navigation facilities. During the 1999 Kargil Conflict, Indian aircraft and ground troops relying on the commercial American GPS found that the signals had vanished, apparently switched off by the U.S. service provider on instructions of Washington.

Like China, India also recognised the need for technological autonomy in the arena of satellite-based navigation systems.

THE CHINESE BEIDOU Investment in Beidou goes as far back as 1955. Today, Beijing enjoys centralised control over the location, navigation and timing details, making the military, administration and intelligence systems resilient even in times of hostility. At the geopolitical level, Beidou takes into account the system’s integration with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the relationship with Russia and the E.U., security concerns, and relative accuracy.

On a commercial level, these characteristics make BeiDou-3 a competitor to GPS as a preferred alternative for GNSS services.

BeiDou utilises two types of services: Radio Navigation System Service (RNSS) and Radio Determination System Service (RDSS). The RNSS performs similarly to other GNSS. However, the RDSS is the factor that differentiates BeiDou from its foreign counterparts. This service comprises a ground station that uses signals from BeiDou satellites to determine the position of its users. The RDSS allow the Chinese government to monitor the user’s movement when a device uses BeiDou satellite signals from any ground station.

BeiDou-3 has a new short message service (SMS) feature that allows users within the same region to send direct messages (up to 120 Chinese characters) to the control segment and vice versa. Registered users are equipped to send free messages to high-altitude BeiDou satellites. This distinguishing feature is extremely useful in emergencies where timing is crucial to survival, retrievement or communication.

On the plus side, the BeiDou constellation increases the redundancy and the accuracy of data collection.

In Africa, BeiDou is used to maximise disaster response and emergency management. In the Middle East, its use improves border security and maritime surveillance. It helps optimise the availability of GNSS services across several countries that have implemented the service. For instance, in addition to Galileo, BeiDou is being used to improve the accuracy of timing signals for European financial markets.

It also fostered greater competition to challenge assets of existing constellations. BeiDou-3 offers its services free of charge as an open system to the world for economic and military space infrastructure. This poses a significant competitor to its U.S. alternative, propelling it to level up.

GNSS: CONTESTATIONS IN THE SKIES

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On the downside, Beidou lacks the global trust enjoyed by the US GPS- who in India will be willing to download and use Beidou today for day-to-day travel navigation?

More seriously, the RDSS could be problematic for countries politically unaligned with China, like India: When a BeiDou satellite is used, the Chinese government gets notified of activity that should/would not concern them, which becomes a national security issue.

The SMS development also comes with national security concerns for foreign countries. Malware could be sent through an SMS to attack the software and hardware. Countries without adequate technological protective mechanisms against this possibility come under serious threat.

Of course, Beidou focuses little on pure commercial potential and mainly seeks military vantage. This includes utilising the constellation as an extension of space warfare capacity and monitoring space and ballistic launches of its neighbours and potential adversaries.

It would be natural for Chinese constellations to track (and potentially disrupt/ infect) Indian aerospace platforms if found threatening. The system could also track electronic footprints to monitor foreign military movement and, if need be, intercept/ jam communications.

THE INDIAN NAVIC The IRNSS or NavIC is designed to provide positional information service in an area extending up to 1500 km from its periphery (to include the surrounding ocean areas) with an even larger Extended Service Area. Like most GNSS, it provides a Standard Positioning Service (SPS) and a Restricted Service (R.S.), which is encrypted and available only to a selected few.The Eurasian Times, in a June 2023 article, has credited the NavIC as superior to many existing GNSS on several counts, including accuracy upto 5 meters. The NavIC is supposed to be less prone to obstructions as the constellation has a higher orbit.

Civilian application has been inhibited due to the L5 and L6 bands not being compatible with mobile handsets. The preliminary concern with NavIC is the cost of implementing the design in software at this stage. Many cellphone manufacturers established the design paradigm in receivers supporting multi-GNSS chipsets for cellphones and car navigation systems used commercially today. These chipsets support GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, and BeiDou because the satellite signals transmit through a primary bandwidth frequency (L1). However, the frequency at which the NavIC system operates concerns tech companies.

The NavIC satellite signals co-locate with GPS L5 frequency, a relatively new bandwidth adoption in the U.S. GPS modernisation plan and much less common for smartphones presently in use. Smartphone manufacturers like Apple, Xiaomi, and Samsung reported the fear that enabling NavIC support in their devices would increase production costs significantly. A Reuters report noted that implementing NavIC on smartphones would be unfeasible until 2025. Reportedly, the next genera-

tion of satellites being launched with an L1 band signal would make them compatible with common mobile handsets.

For the U.S., India’s growing spotlight in the GNSS domain comes with a competition for geopolitical dominance and a transition to greater self-reliance.

THE WAY AHEAD Time is of the essence in the race for geopolitical power dominance, and we have reached an era where survival is insufficient. India may have created the technology that allows the nation to compete with other geopolitical powers.

A more tactical rather than reactionary approach is imperative for all sectors in the country to develop, not only on par with each other but also with other nations.

The government must redirect their focus to remain relevant and get ahead of the curve.

Assessment In the interim, India must collaborate and develop contracts with tech companies that speed up the integration of NavIC into chipsets and develop interoperability with GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, and QZSS services to guarantee resiliency in modern threats like SMS-inflicted malware.

India must also develop countermeasures to enhance Electronic Counter-Counter, including cyber-security encryption, advanced protocol systems and anti-hacking measures.

The NavIC does not have to take a unique approach to development but a tactical one. Indian R&D departments, intelligence bureaus and the military have called for an internally uplifting paradigm, and harnessing NavIC’s full potential would reflect a technical power move.

TECHNOLOGY

WHEN SCI-FI MEETS REALITY!

AI isn’t a distant future; it’s our current reality. The momentum of the AI revolution is accelerating, unveiling a realm of fresh possibilities.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION RES E A RCH

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n essence, AI constitutes the field of creating machines endowed with capabilities akin to humans. This represents a significant advancement, where machines capable of planning, reasoning, communicating, and learning enrich our lives while simultaneously reducing expenses and elevating efficiency and profitability.

As per the McKinsey State of AI report, 56% of those surveyed employ AI in at least one capacity. This statistic rises to 57% within emerging economies, encompassing regions like China, the Middle East, and North Africa. Furthermore, this momentum is expected to persist, as highlighted by the presence of automation and digitisation objectives in 54% of companies’ longterm corporate strategies, as indicated by PwC’s Global CEO Survey. However, concerns frequently arise about AI’s potential to induce adverse disruptions, particularly within the labour market, as it supplants routine and easy tasks.

DECODING AI The terms “AI” and “automation” are often used interchangeably, yet they are not entirely synonymous.

Both aim to assist humans by assuming repetitive, routine responsibilities. Nonetheless, automation involves programming machines to execute tasks, while AI revolves around machines autonomously learning by discerning patterns in data.

As AI becomes part and parcel of our everyday lives, regulating its operations has taken centre stage. Key tech companies, including Microsoft, Google, and OpenAI are in active discussions to formulate effective strategies pending EU’s regulation. The AI Act is presented as the world’s first comprehensive AI law to ensure smooth conditions for the operation and efficient use of this innovative Technology.

The term “AI” has evolved into a comprehensive label encapsulating advancements in computing, systems, and Technology, wherein computer programs can undertake tasks or resolve issues requiring the kind of reasoning akin to human intelligence, even assimilating knowledge from past experiences. The capacity to learn serves as a foundational aspect of AI. An algorithm is essentially a “sequence of instructions,” a formula to process data. AI elevates this concept, encompassing an assortment of algorithms that possess the ability to adapt and modify themselves in response to inputted data, thereby demonstrating a form of “intelligence.”

AI has already permeated numerous aspects of our daily lives and professional endeavours. The spectrum spans from digital personal aides to intelligent household gadgets, online retail experiences to factory automatons, all made feasible through AI integration.

WHEN SCI-FI MEETS REALITY!

A FUTURE SKETCHED BY AI AI encompasses several distinct domains, all of which wield significant influence on both our current work dynamics and the shape of our future labour landscape.

Machine Learning is a facet of AI that possesses the remarkable ability to “learn” by recognising patterns within data. Unlike traditional programming, machine learning software can analyse inputted data to predict outcomes, formulate rules, or provide recommendations. Deep learning takes this concept further, minimising human input and enabling the use of extensive data sets. This advancement has underpinned progress in speech and image recognition, as well as natural language processing. However, the effectiveness of machine learning hinges on the quality of the input data; biased data can lead to biased AI outputs.

Robotics is an advanced technique that allows organisations to employ robots to automate physical tasks either remotely or through algorithms and sensors. Beyond the familiar sight of robotic “arms” on production lines, robots find diverse applications, ranging from surgical assistance to sewer inspection. But one must not disregard the danger involved in putting the still untested Technology on first-line work.

As per a BBC article of July 2015, a study into the safety of surgical robots has linked the machines’ use to at least 144 deaths and more than 1,000 injuries over a 14-year period in the US. Natural Language Processing (NLP) employs machine learning to assist computers in comprehending, generating, and responding to human language. Its applications span translation, voice recognition, transcription, and data extraction from reports.

Evolving NLP capabilities enable chatbots to engage in more natural conversations, enhancing customer service and freeing employees to handle complex queries.

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Virtual reality and augmented reality technologies enable an internet that can be physically navigated, transforming how we collaborate, communicate, and train.

By scrutinising vast transaction volumes, AI can identify patterns indicative of fraud, automatically blocking suspicious transactions or flagging them for investigation. AI is also used in cybersecurity to detect and thwart threats.

AI AND THE WORKSPACE In essence, AI’s far-reaching influence permeates diverse sectors, altering the landscape of work and how we approach it. AI doesn’t exist in isolation. The utilisation of AI by organisations for decision-making introduces concerns related to transparency, privacy, fairness, and accountability. This is where the concept of explainable AI (XAI) enters the scene. XAI’s primary objective is to ensure that the reasoning behind algorithms is comprehensible to humans. Additionally, XAI plays a pivotal role in identifying errors within artificial intelligence systems.

However, pondering the implications of AI for the future of work has been a prevailing concern as computers and technology have progressed. Similar to historical technological advancements, the rise of artificial intelligence has sparked apprehensions about the potential obsolescence of human workers.

In reality, the outcome is likely to be less dire, albeit possibly more intricate. Over half of the companies employing AI-driven technologies have reported heightened productivity levels. There are already some clear outcomes for AI’s impact across key industries, including finance, hospitality and tourism, medical, automotive, cyber security and job search. The impact on jobs for humans is varied. Humanoid robots at Tokyo’s latest café exemplify how robots simplify life. The Dawn Avatar Robot Café, situated in Nihonbashi, Tokyo, de-

WHEN SCI-FI MEETS REALITY!

ploys robotic waiters to attend to patrons. While one might assume that human jobs could be at risk due to these automated servers, the narrative behind their implementation is touching.

These robots are controlled by actual individuals, encompassing disabled workers unable to leave their residences due to physical constraints, seniors with limited work hours, and single parents in need of athome childcare support. The primary objective of these robots is to bridge the divide between disabled individuals and society by offering them new employment avenues that allow them to engage at their preferred pace.

Operated via the internet using eye movements and gestures, these robots serve as avatars, embodying the workers who operate them.

Ongoing research is delving into the potential advantages of incorporating artificial intelligence into the field of medicine. With an abundance of data at its disposal, the medical sector is exploring the creation of predictive models to enhance healthcare outcomes. In certain diagnostic contexts, AI has exhibited superior effectiveness compared to human physicians.

For instance, the lung cancer AI system outlined has the capability to offer an early and highly accurate detection of the disease.

The use of AI in healthcare is, of course, still limited to areas where human intervention is not essential, like nursing, for example, Technology has not yet replaced the human touch!The advent of autonomous vehicles and navigation underscores the influence of AI within the automotive sector. AI’s impact is already evident, and it is set to play a substantial role in various aspects of production, particularly within the automotive industry.

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In the realm of cybersecurity, the significance of AI and machine learning is paramount for identifying and preempting threats. With its capacity to scrutinise extensive data sets and predict as well as uncover fraud, AI stands as an essential asset in the realm of financial security.

The job search process can be significantly influenced by artificial intelligence (AI). Automated applicant tracking systems can dismiss as many as 75% of resumes even before human review. In the past, recruiters dedicated substantial time to sift through resumes in search of suitable candidates. In contrast, AI-driven systems are progressively assuming the role of resume scanning.

THE FEAR OF HUMAN REDUNDANCY As AI becomes part and parcel of our everyday lives, regulating its operations has taken centre stage.

Key tech companies, including Microsoft, Google, and OpenAI are in active discussions to formulate effective strategies pending EU’s regulation. The AI Act is presented as the world’s first comprehensive AI law to en-

sure smooth conditions for the operation and efficient use of this innovative Technology.

Perhaps the most significant apprehension surrounding AI revolves around its potential to trigger job losses and, consequently, unemployment. However, estimations suggest that the introduction of automation will yield a surplus of job creation, surpassing losses and reaching up to 890 million new jobs by 2030.

Moreover, AI doesn’t entirely automate all facets of many jobs; it primarily handles routine tasks such as payroll and data extraction from documents.

WHEN SCI-FI MEETS REALITY!

The human touch remains indispensable to supervise processes and intervene if issues arise. Instead of replacing humans, AI is poised to collaborate harmoniously, enhancing our work quality and enabling us to concentrate on the more imaginative and fulfilling aspects of our roles.

For instance, while AI might aid in medical diagnoses, doctors and nurses will continue to provide patient treatment.

AI is ushering in an augmented demand for individuals with technological acumen – programmers, statisticians, data scientists, and analysts. Equally essential are those endowed with creative and emotional intelligence skills, areas where AI falls short.

Experts anticipate that the trajectory of work will encompass a symbiotic partnership between humans and AI. Envisioning this collaboration prompts questions about its potential dynamics and how companies and organisations can cultivate a productive synergy between these two entities. What could this collaborative landscape entail, and what strategies can be employed to ensure the harmonious interaction between humans and AI? The potential for substantial economic growth lies within the realm of artificial intelligence. Alongside heightened productivity, these gains are anticipated to stem from increased consumer demand as AI fosters greater accessibility and affordability across a wider array of products.

PwC’s projections indicate that by 2030, AI could contribute a staggering USD 15.7 trillion to the global economy. Noteworthy advantages of artificial intelligence encompass: Productivity: Liberation from mundane tasks can lead to remarkable leaps in productivity. PwC’s findings indicate that 44% of business leaders are actively seeking to bolster productivity through automation.

Efficiency: AI has the capability to outpace human execution in various routine tasks, ensuring a swifter and more efficient outcome. Additionally, AI-driven services remain operational around the clock, addressing fraud detection, customer inquiries, and job application scanning, thereby saving precious time and resources.

Problem Solving: Advances in machine learning have rendered AI adept at tackling intricate tasks, including medical diagnosis. This allocation of tasks to AI serves to optimise resources and amplify productivity.

Innovation: AI’s contributions extend to generating innovative ideas during brainstorming sessions, facilitating interactions in virtual spaces within the Metaverse, and leveraging AI in supply chains to discern consumer preferences, thus informing pertinent product decisions. AI plays a pivotal role in fostering innovation within organisations, thereby propelling them toward success.

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LIMITATIONS OF AI The majority of AI systems currently in use fall under what AI pioneer Daniela Rus, terms “specialised AI.” These systems are designed to address a limited scope of specific problems. They analyse extensive datasets, recognise patterns, and make predictions to inform future actions. Rus, alongside Thomas Malone from the MIT Sloan School and Robert Laubacher from the MIT Centre for Collective Intelligence, emphasises that “narrow AI solutions are available for a wide range of specific problems” and contribute significantly to enhancing efficiency and productivity in the professional realm.

Examples of such systems include IBM’s Watson, renowned for surpassing human contestants on the TV show “Jeopardy!” and its subsequent applications in healthcare, as well as Google’s AlphaGo, which excels in the game of Go. The AI systems explored within insurance and healthcare fall into the specialised AI category, encompassing diverse forms of machine learning, computer vision, natural language processing, and more.

Additionally, “classic AI” systems, rooted in formalised logic, are also in use, contributing to the multifaceted landscape of AI. It is important to note that AI is not a singular entity but a collection of distinct AIs, each with unique characteristics that do not necessarily replicate human intelligence.

Specialised AI systems, heavily reliant on human-generated data, exhibit behaviours that mimic human actions in familiar tasks. However, they can also inherit human biases. Challenges persist in terms of robustness, the capability to perform consistently amidst changing conditions or noise in the data, and trust, which relates to the confidence that a task will be executed correctly every time.

The lack of explainability compounds the issue of trust, as current specialised AI systems cannot articulate their decision-making process to humans. In addition, the accountability of such decision-making rests rather nebulously in the unknown arena when humans are not involved.

The ability to adapt to novel situations remains a substantial hurdle for AI and robotics. This is why many companies continue to rely on human workers for various tasks. Humans excel in areas such as social interaction, unpredictable physical skills, common sense, and general intelligence.

From a work standpoint, specialised AI systems typically focus on specific tasks rather than encompassing the full scope of an occupation’s activities. However, every occupation faces some level of impact. For instance, while radiologists perform a multitude of tasks, AI can aid them in reading radiographs, freeing up time for other responsibilities like physical examinations or personalised treatment plans.

In aviation, pilots have integrated automatic pilots to assist in manual control of the aircraft. Yet, the so-

WHEN SCI-FI MEETS REALITY!

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phistication of these systems can lead to pilots losing their manual flying skills, sometimes with tragic consequences.

in various business contexts. Human judgement, particularly in areas involving complex decision-making, will continue to hold value across sectors.

MAKING AI WORK FOR YOUR ORGANISATION

Numerous factors can temper unchecked AI advancement. AI often requires substantial “learning” from extensive data, raising concerns about data availability, categorisation, and issues of privacy and security. Computational and processing limitations are also relevant, as highlighted by the high energy costs associated with advanced AI models.

Embracing AI wholeheartedly is proving to be rewarding for organisations. According to PwC’s AI Business Survey, companies achieving significant ROI from AI are strategically implementing it across three areas simultaneously: business transformation, decision-making, and process modernisation.

However, the widespread adoption of AI within a company entails substantial changes in how individuals carry out their roles. How can organisations demonstrate to employees that AI is a positive force for change? How can it enhance work performance by automating mundane tasks, enabling individuals to focus on more creative endeavours that utilise their skills more effectively?

One effective approach is emphasising that AI is intended to complement, rather than replace, human workers. Equally essential is ensuring that employees possess the necessary technological skills to collaborate effectively with AI. This may involve upskilling and reskilling the workforce as needed, enabling them to harness the full potential of AI-driven opportunities.

Contrary to how artificial intelligence has been depicted in media, especially in certain sci-fi films, the emergence of this technology has triggered apprehensions that AI could eventually render human involvement in the workforce obsolete. As technology has advanced, many tasks once performed manually have become automated. This progression naturally raises concerns about the potential demise of traditional work.

However, adopting a fatalistic stance may not be warranted. A recent publication by the MIT Task Force on the Work of the Future, titled “Artificial Intelligence and The Future of Work,” offers a more optimistic perspective. Instead of forecasting the obsolescence of human labour, the paper envisions AI as a catalyst for substantial innovation that will bolster existing industries and possibly give rise to new growth sectors, consequently leading to job creation.

While AI has made notable strides in emulating human intelligence for specific tasks, it remains constrained by significant limitations.

AI systems usually possess “specialised” intelligence, enabling them to address a singular problem or execute a specific task. They may lack flexibility and adaptability to changes beyond their predefined programming.

In contrast, humans wield “generalised intelligence,” encompassing problem-solving, abstract thinking, and critical judgement, qualities that remain indispensable

A significant caveat involves potential bias in data, which can perpetuate societal inequities or the biases of the data’s creators. If input data contains bias, AI-generated outcomes are likely to be influenced accordingly.

In recognition of these and other factors, the MIT CCI paper contends that AI’s equivalence to human intelligence and its potential to completely replace human workers remain distant. Provided comprehensive investments are made across education, private sectors, and governmental organisations—focusing on workforce training and upskilling—AI has the potential to foster job creation, reshaping the discussion from “humans or computers” to “humans and computers” collaboratively driving complex systems for advancing industries and prosperity.

Assessment In anticipation of the forthcoming changes in the world of work, both individuals and organisations must give prominence to upskilling and reskilling initiatives. These efforts are essential to guarantee that everyone possesses the requisite skills and expertise to prosper in an environment heavily influenced by AI. Simultaneously, policymakers need to confront the potential repercussions of AI on employment and focus on devising comprehensive policies that facilitate equitable distribution of AI’s advantages.

In the grand scheme of things, the effective assimilation of AI into work environments hinges on the collaborative efforts and conversations among industry, academia, and government. This collective approach ensures that AI is wielded in a manner that advances the betterment of society as a whole. By maintaining awareness and taking proactive measures, we can adeptly navigate the transformations brought about by AI and shape a work future that is marked by both efficiency and fairness.

The ultimate key to thriving in the AI era is an organised strategy for integrating machine workflows, refining processes, and retraining employees. This will empower companies to expand, evolve, amplify their operations, and attain success.

ECONOMICS

EXPLORING MOON’S COMMERCIAL VIABILITY While it may appear a bit presumptuous at this juncture, Mission Chandrayaan is a baby step by India towards the ultimate commercial exploitation of spatial objects.

Suchitra Padmanabhan is the Policy Research Associate at Synergia Foundation and has Post Graduate Degree in Social Policy & Planning from the London School of Economics

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fter the heart-wrenching failure at the last moment of Chandrayan-2, watched live by the whole country, the successful landing of Vikram and the rolling out of rover Pragyan was a collective catharsis for 1.3 billion Indians.

Not surprisingly, success begets confidence, and ISRO now looks at the Chandrayan-3 as little more than a small step towards much greater exploitation of space by India using homegrown technology. It has opened the doors to a wide spectrum of opportunities that space has to offer to almost every segment of economic activity.

Space and the Deep Ocean beds, remain the only unexploited frontiers for humankind. However, with the rate at which investments are being pumped into space exploration, the time is not far when public-private partnerships will reap the dividends of their space investments in far-off planets. And in this enterprise, perhaps the beginning could be made on the Moon.

Mega national efforts like space exploration cannot be entirely purged from the ever-present influence of geopolitical contestations between nations, however noble the intentions of global agencies may be. The

Space and the Deep Ocean beds, remain the only unexploited frontiers for humankind. However, with the rate at which investments are being pumped into space exploration, the time is not far when public-private partnerships will reap the dividends of their space investments in far-off planets. And in this enterprise, perhaps the beginning could be made on the Moon fruits of successful space exploration on the Moon and beyond in the celestial space present such unprecedented opportunities that few emerging technological powers can afford to ignore them. Advanced space technologies are easily accessible, unlike the 1960s when only the U.S. and USSR had mastery over them, and developments in space propulsion and navigation technology have drastically brought down launch costs, as exemplified by ISRO. As per UN records, 90 countries now operate in space. The fallout of space research is finding its way into almost every aspect of human activity-national security, global communications and remote monitoring of our planet and its atmosphere, to name a few.

Space enterprise will, therefore, find an impetus through its influence on the economy, security, technological research and diplomatic needs. We can all hope

EXPLORING MOON’S COMMERCIAL VIABILITY

that all these endeavours will be directed towards the betterment of humankind and the peaceful use of space.

BACK TO THE MOON! An interest in lunar exploration has again been awakened. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, the EU and the Russian space agency were in serious discussions on joint lunar missions. China, too, has a robust ongoing lunar exploitation programme, having successfully landed a robotic rover in 2019 and having signed an agreement with Russia on a joint lunar research station in 2021. Of course, the U.S, continues to be the biggest investor, with its Artemis programme being the most ambitious one, aiming for a long-term human presence on the Moon in collaboration with many commercial and international partners, including India.

The U.S. undoubtedly leads the race with its wealthy private sector growing exponentially its outreach into space and is closely shadowed by China. While today’s Russia may appear lagging behind, the latter’s nearly three quarter-of- century-long space experience cannot be discounted easily, giving it the ability to switch gears at a moment’s notice, once the economy recovers from its Western exclusion.

As per the prestigious Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), both public and private enterprises are joining hands to pursue lunar missions for national pride, scientific discovery, domestic space industrial development, international partnership advancement and economic benefits that include access to minerals and metals that may be lying undiscovered under the meteor pitted lunar surface.

Over 100 lunar missions are planned over the next decade. The most encouraging aspect is that, unlike all other explorations of the past, this time around, the leading countries are collaborating- India and the United States; India and Japan; Europe, Japan, Canada, and the United States; and Japan and the United Arab Emirates. The rise of disruptors like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos,

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and Richard Branson has also sparked a global fascination with space exploration and human expansion into space, further reshaping the industry’s landscape and potential.

Of course, there will be significant fallouts from this accelerated interest in lunar exploration. For one, technology is being shaped to reduce space launch costs and sharpen accuracy through cutting-edge research in autonomy, navigation and communications. The benefits will accrue on Earth also- in civil, commercial and military space capabilities alike.

As far back as 1967, the UN had crafted an Outer Space Treaty to lay down the guard rails of space exploration, including the lunar surface. As per Article I, the exploration and use of outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, shall be carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all countries, irrespective of their degree of economic or scientific development, and shall be the province of all mankind. Outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, shall be free for exploration and use by all States without discrimination of any kind, on the basis of equality and in accordance with international law, and there shall be free access to all areas of celestial bodies. There shall be freedom of scientific investigation in outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, and States shall facilitate and encourage international cooperation in such investigation.

Having witnessed the scramble for Africa in the 18th and early 19th Centuries, the UN has tried to legislate that the same land grab will not occur in space. As per Article II of the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, Outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means.

The best example of international collaboration on space is the Artemis Accords, which has agreed on a set of principles that will regulate space exploration,

EXPLORING MOON’S COMMERCIAL VIABILITY

including transparency, data sharing, and de-conflicting activities. Till July 2023, 28 countries, including India, had signed; Russia and China have so far stayed away from the accord.

VALUE FOR MONEY A common observation on India’s space achievements, especially from the Global North, is why should a country with 228.9 million people below the poverty line (as per the UNDP 2022 report) spend millions on space research, which has a limited direct impact on poverty alleviation. Won’t this money be better spent on health care, education and social welfare programmes?

The Indian space programme is underscored by its frugality. With a budget of approximately $1.5 billion for FY 2023, ISRO’s operational efficiency is minuscule compared to NASA’s massive budget of approximately $25 billion. This disparity underscores India’s ability to achieve exceptional results while operating within tight financial constraints.

Beyond the immediate prestige, this mission promises to unlock fresh commercial opportunities within the space sector. Industries like telecommunications, remote sensing, and satellite navigation are poised to reap substantial benefits, potentially igniting job creation and fuelling economic expansion. The sense of national pride and jubilation accompanying a sucessful landing could positively influence market sentiment, conceivably giving rise to an uptick in stock prices.

Furthermore, the success of this mission is likely to spur interest in research and development, encouraging collaborative partnerships and providing a boost to small and medium-sized enterprises specializing in components, servicing, maintenance, repair, and operations.

Indian experts have emphasized that the triumph of ISRO’s Moon mission will fortify the ‘Make in India’ brand, adding impetus to the growth of domestic enterprises engaged in developing satellite systems, telecommunications, and various other sectors. An active involvement in the burgeoning space economy holds the promise of substantial downstream advantages for India’s economy. With increased private sector participation and investments, India’s space industry sets the stage for the flourishing of space startups. This surge in interest promises economic growth and innovations that will play a crucial role in shaping the nation’s future.

The rapidly growing space data-asa-service market, where specialized companies deliver high-quality data directly to customers, is another significant driver. Government agencies, private companies, and research institutions are increasingly using spacebased data for a a read-wide range of applications, such

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as satellite. Emerging technologies like edge computing and AI can potentially transform space data services.

Additionally, additive manufacturing (3D printing) is becoming integral to space-related hardware and component production, reducing costs and simplifying manufacturing processes. While it may still be sometime in the future, In-Space manufacturing can leverage the unique conditions of outer space, such as microgravity, to produce materials and structures that are challenging or impossible to create on Earth.

The world has already experienced tangible benefits stemming from past space endeavours. These include improved access to clean drinking water through water recycling on the International Space Station, nearly global internet accessibility offered by initiatives like Starlink for educational purposes, advancements in solar power generation, and innovations in health technologies.

Chandrayaan-3’s accomplishment also resonates within the financial landscape. It bolsters investor confidence and elevates India’s credibility on the global stage. Nevertheless, it remains imperative for investors and market observers to maintain a pragmatic outlook.

While short-term challenges may arise, the mission’s long-term advantages and strategic significance to India’s space aspirations will likely overshadow transient setbacks.

Understandably, space research and application demands a high quality of human resources with expertise in mathematics, sciences, engineering, etc. These are not easily available, and there is a race to grab talent globally. The Chandrayaan missions have already exemplified their potential to generate advanced job opportunities. The space sector’s expansion promises a wide spectrum of employment prospects, from research scientists and engineers to skilled technicians and administrative personnel.

The potential success of Chandrayaan-3 can establish India as a noteworthy contender in the space race, with a specific focus on establishing a permanent lunar infrastructure. This aspiration aligns with initiatives exemplified by China and Russia through their collaboration on a Moon base and the International Lunar Research Station, opening doors for India to engage in distinctive collaborative endeavours, resource utilization, and pioneering research. India’s participation in the Artemis Accords further underscores its dedication to international cooperation in the realm of space exploration, demonstrating a commitment to forging partnerships and contributing to the collective pursuit of lunar exploration objectives.

As per the latest annual report from the Space Foundation, the global space economy has surged to an impressive US $ 546 billion value during the second quarter of 2023.

This remarkable fig-

EXPLORING MOON’S COMMERCIAL VIABILITY

ure signifies a substantial 91 per cent increase in value over the course of the past decade. India has shown a strong inclination to be a leader in this enterprise and is projected to invest almost $ 13 billion by 2025 in the space economy. Space investments have a beneficial blowback on economic activities on Earth in terms of employment generation, public-private partnerships and fostering the growth of the country’s space-tech ecosystem.

As the global need for satellite imaging, positioning, and navigation data continues to surge, multiple reports underscore that the world is experiencing exponential expansion in the space economy. According to a Deloitte report, the trend is vividly illustrated by the fact that since 2013, private equity investments totalling over US $272 billion have flowed into 1,791 companies operating within this sector. Venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) firms have increasingly invested in the space sector, with more private companies entering the market to provide space-related products and services; India must not miss out on the opportunity by not grabbing a piece of this pie.

SPACE MINING Investing in mining projects on the Moon and even beyond no longer sounds crazy today.

It’s worth emphasizing that the Moon, a rich source of raw materials, is poised to become a focal point for future geopolitical interactions and collaborations. In this context, adopting a comprehensive perspective on the critical minerals that have gained significance in recent years is essential.

According to a study conducted by ISRO, a substantial volume of water is currently harboured on the Moon, particularly in the South Pole region. The exploration of this resource holds the potential for generating a substantial amount of hydro-energy.Similarly, ISRO’s research indicates the presence of various other critical

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minerals, such as plutonium and helium-3, which can be harnessed for nuclear fusion energy. Additionally, the Moon is believed to contain resources like cobalt, lithium, titanium, potassium, and more, as outlined in a report published by Popular Science Magazine titled “The Elements We Might Mine on the Moon.” Likewise, in its various reports, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has pointed to the future significance of these critical minerals as potential sources for the renewable energy sector.

Assessment The success of the Chandrayan -3 has to be taken forward to its logical conclusion in shaping the future of space exploration, even if it comes at the cost of investing in our other SDGs, as enumerated by the UN. Our space investments make sense if, apart from generating a sense of national pride, they result in employment opportunities and ground-breaking technological advancements that are never shared by any country. Ultimately, the benefits must flow down to the individual citizen.

Success is very transitory in space exploration, with a narrow dividing line between total success and total failure; the Chandrayan mission has amply demonstrated this harsh truth. Therefore, India must not take success for granted, and while we invest our precious treasure in space, we should not allow temporary setbacks to put us off.

The success of Chandrayan-3 is a good boost to Indian space exploration; however, the journey has just begun, and we have a long, hard road ahead of us.

ECONOMICS

RED ALERT!

After decades of upward growth, the post-pandemic reality is that China’s economy is slowing down amidst many hurdles.

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ith the second largest economy in the world, China has long been associated with an upward trajectory of economic growth. In fact, during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, China was the only major developed economy that avoided going into a recession.

After three years of stringent zero-COVID lockdowns, China’s economy was expected to recover this year. However, not only has it failed to pick up pace, but its growth is slowing down as it grapples with a real estate slump, local government debt, reduced consumer spending, unemployment and more.

This has global ramifications as China’s economy is one of the major engines of the world economy. Recently, global markets reacted strongly to developments in China as speculation mounted that Beijing would have to intensify its efforts to bolster weak demand. The trigger for this concern was the announcement that service sector activity in the world’s second-largest economy had dropped to its lowest level in eight months in August.

WILL GET WORSE BEFORE GETTING BETTER In a nutshell, the Chinese economy has seen better days. Consumer prices are on the decline, and the United States is reducing its exports and investments in China. Trade between China and its primary customer and rival has shrunk considerably compared to

In a nutshell, the Chinese economy has seen better days. Consumer prices are on the decline, and the United States is reducing its exports and investments in China. Trade between China and its primary customer and rival has shrunk considerably compared to the previous year. Moreover, China’s property sector, which has been a major driver of its GDP, is now unstable, with developers struggling to meet their financial obligations, holding debts amounting to about 16 per cent of the GDP. the previous year. Moreover, China’s property sector, which has been a major driver of its GDP, is now unstable, with developers struggling to meet their financial obligations, holding debts amounting to about 16 per cent of the GDP. This represents a significant departure from the past. For four decades, China’s commitment to economic growth was unwavering. In 1978, when China embarked on its reform journey, GDP per capita was a mere $2,000 at purchasing power parity, with over 70 per cent of the workforce engaged in agriculture and nearly 90 per cent living in poverty. Market-oriented reforms led to a shift from politics to business, resulting in China’s GDP per capita now exceeding $20,000, above the global average, and the eradication of extreme poverty. China’s manufacturing GDP now surpasses that of the United States and the European Union combined,

RED ALERT!

producing everything from microchips to ships and industrial sewing machines. In terms of both scale and speed, this economic transformation is unparalleled.

This transformation also involved a dramatic overhaul of China’s urban landscape. Between 2010 and 2020, the country added more than 140 million housing units to its cities and produced enough cement in three years to cover the entire land area of Britain into parking lots. Chinese residential property became one of the world’s largest asset classes, valued at over $30 trillion by the end of 2019.

This miracle seems to have run its course. The Chinese economy has reached a stage of maturity, accompanied by a diminishing workforce. The underlying demand for new urban properties in China, stemming from people’s desires for their first homes or better living conditions, has peaked.

China’s strict “zero-covid” policy wreaked havoc on its economy last year, raising hopes for a better outlook this year. China’s reopening unleashed pent-up demand for goods and services that were previously hard to access due to the risk of lockdowns stemming from a single infection. It also cleared a backlog of export orders and prompted a flurry of home purchases in China’s more expensive cities.

However, this burst of spending turned out to be shorter-lived than anticipated, and significantly, it failed to boost morale enough to sustain a broader recovery in spending. Consumer confidence has now reached a low again. Foreign direct investment nearly disappeared in the second quarter, as multinational companies repatriated their earnings rather than reinvesting them.

For some observers, prospects for improvement appear bleak. They liken China’s economy to suffering from something akin to “long covid.” Stringent and arbitrary lockdowns from 2020 to 2022 eroded people’s trust in the meddlesome policies of President Xi’s party. Consequently, private investment remains cautious, consumer durables purchases are lacklustre, and bank deposits are unusually high as individuals seek to self-insure against an uncertain future.

Confidence has also been undermined by the “regulatory storm” that unfolded after 2020, leading to the humbling of China’s online platform companies like Alibaba and Meituan and effectively quashing the edtech industry. The series of crackdowns and lockdowns created the impression that the government was willing to sacrifice economic growth for other priorities. While former Premier Zhu Rongji urged China to maintain 8 per cent growth, President Xi insists on “high-quality” growth, according to his evolving definition. Achieving this requires entrepreneurs to make an uncomfortable shift from business to politics.

Not all the news from China is dismal, however.

Observers have pointed out that despite the property bust, China rests on the power of its tech prowess. A keen focus on a range of tech areas, ranging from AI to

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robotics to less sensitive hardware such as electric vehicles and solar power, maintains resilience and revenue growth in the economy. While a “Japanification” of the economy has been in the news for a while, it is not prudent to write off the economy as yet.

GUNS VS. BUTTER China’s ongoing economic deceleration has sparked concerns among observers, with worries extending to the possibility of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) attempting to replace prosperity with nationalism as a source of legitimacy. Some even express apprehension that the party may resort to external actions to divert blame and bolster its domestic support. These concerns are rooted in reality, as recent data indicates that the CCP made a strategic decision years ago to employ force or the threat thereof to preserve its rule. From Beijing’s perspective, nationalism and military might be seen as essential tools for future prosperity, and any surprise in this regard is intentional.

In response to the economic slowdown, the CCP has allocated substantial resources to bolster its military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Beijing has sought to downplay the extent of this investment, all the while championing its commitment to a “peaceful rise.” Chinese officials have consistently presented annual defence budget figures over the past decade, suggesting that they were aligning the PLA’s budget growth with China’s overall economic expansion—essentially implying that the increase in the PLA’s budget was proportionate to broader economic gains.

Although there is a widespread belief that China’s reported GDP figures are lower than reality and that the PLA’s budget is higher, the global community has largely accepted Beijing’s narrative of a connection between the two, allowing the CCP to rationalize the most significant peacetime military build-up since the 1930s.

For example, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies characterizes Beijing’s “rising defence spending” as being “closely linked to its burgeoning gross domestic product,” with defence expenditure as a percentage of GDP purportedly hovering at or below 2 per cent since 2000. This portrayal aligns with Chinese public data but lacks common-sense logic. Regrettably, until now, every public estimate of Chinese defence spending has relied on statistics released by Beijing, occasionally with minor adjustments that include non-defence spending items from the official budget.

Investment in the PLA experienced a temporary slowdown during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China in 2020. During this time, Chinese shipyards shifted from constructing PLA Navy vessels, a traditional cost-intensive endeavour, to building commercial ships, possibly due to the stricter working conditions required for warship construction, which raised health concerns. However, spending increases seem to

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have resumed by the following year and are once again surpassing GDP growth. Chinese drydocks are abuzz with approximately 20 major warships under construction, the PLA Rocket Force is engaged in a substantial nuclear expansion, the PLA Air Force is increasing its investments in advanced aircraft procurement, and China is deploying record numbers of military satellites, even exceeding the United States.

In the midst of an economic crisis, Beijing’s decision to double down on defence spending, coupled with the CCP’s transition from a “peaceful rise” to its more aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy, constitutes a deliberate strategy. In essence, the CCP is positioning itself to coerce or, if necessary, engage in conflict to achieve wealth and power. President Xi Jinping articulates this strategy, which he terms the “dialectic of war and peace,” to domestic audiences by explaining, “Only those who are capable of fighting can deter war, and those who are ready to fight may not need to fight.”

Strengthening the PLA is, therefore, intended to enable the party to assert its interests abroad without fearing resistance.

AUTOCRACY DAMAGING THE ECONOMY? Analysts anticipate that authorities will continue to implement minor stimulus measures while making a concerted effort to communicate their intentions regarding the acceleration of the transition to new growth sectors, including higher value-added manufacturing, green energy, healthcare, artificial intelligence, supercomputing, and life sciences. This revamped growth model is a time-consuming process and involves creative destruction, particularly in the short term. Additionally, authorities will need to consider more robust debt restructuring measures, which, at the outset, may also hinder economic growth.

The authorities must also overcome their inclination toward centralization and, instead, facilitate the emergence of dynamic private sector engines of growth.

Contrary to previous expectations, it is no longer guaranteed that China will become the world’s largest economy.

A decade ago, China’s technocrats were regarded as highly skilled, having presided over an economic miracle and being credited with rescuing the global economy during the 2007-09 financial crisis through substantial stimulus measures. However, during each economic challenge, both public and private debts mounted, raising doubts about the sustainability of the housing boom and the necessity of new infrastructure projects.

Presently, policymakers find themselves in a predicament. They are wary of creating more inefficient projects or inflating the property market bubble. Furthermore, they cannot implement the desired forms of stimulus, such as increased pension spending and support for low-income households, as President Xi has disavowed “welfarism,” and the government targets an official deficit of only 3% of GDP.

As a result, the response to the economic slowdown has been lukewarm, with policymakers reluctant to significantly reduce interest rates. This tepid response to declining growth and inflation marks the latest in a series of policy missteps. China’s assertive foreign policy and its mercantilist industrial strategy have exacerbated economic conflicts with the United States.

Domestically, China has failed to address the incentives for speculation in the housing market and a system in which developers carry such substantial obligations that they become systemically important. Beginning in 2020, regulatory crackdowns on successful consumer technology firms, deemed too unruly and monopolistic, caused market disruptions.During the pandemic, officials employed lockdowns without adequately utilizing the time to vaccinate enough people for a controlled exit and were later overwhelmed by the highly contagious Omicron variant.

Analysts believe that short-term growth is no longer the primary objective of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Signs suggest that President Xi Jinping believes China must prepare for sustained economic and potential military conflicts with the United States. Consequently, he emphasizes China’s pursuit of national greatness, security, and resilience. He is willing to make sacrifices to achieve these goals, and any growth he seeks must be of “high quality.”

However, even by President Xi’s criteria, the CCP’s decisions appear flawed. The abandonment of the zero-COVID policy eroded Mr. Xi’s prestige, and the crackdown on tech firms has discouraged entrepreneurs. Persistent deflation, due to the authorities’ reluctance to boost consumption, would cause debts to increase in real value and further burden the economy.

Most significantly, without continually improving living standards, the CCP risks weakening its hold on power and limiting its ability to compete with the United States.

RED ALERT!

The accumulation of policy failures has coincided with President Xi’s centralization of power and the replacement of technocrats with loyalists in top positions.

China used to encourage debate about its economy, but it now pressures analysts to convey unwarranted optimism. Recently, it has ceased publishing unfavourable data on youth unemployment and consumer confidence.

While the government still possesses a wealth of talent in its top ranks, it is naive to expect a bureaucracy to produce rational analysis or innovative ideas when loyalty takes precedence. Decisions are increasingly influenced by an ideology that combines the suspicion of wealthy entrepreneurs with reluctance to provide support to the less fortunate.

The fact that China’s issues originate from the top suggests that they will persist and may even worsen as inept policymakers confront the mounting economic challenges. China’s population is ageing rapidly, and its relationship with the increasingly hostile United States is straining.

The more China closes the gap with the United States, the harder it becomes to further narrow the divide, given that centralized economies excel at emulation rather than innovation.

Liberal predictions about China have often been coloured by wishful thinking. In the 2000s, Western leaders mistakenly believed that trade, markets, and growth would promote democracy and individual liberties. However, China is now testing the reverse hypothesis: whether increasing autocracy harms the economy.

Mounting evidence suggests that it does.

ROUTES TO REVIVAL In the past, China’s leaders sent powerful signals, such as Deng Xiaoping’s “southern tour” of entrepreneurial cities in 1992 or Zhu Rongji’s commitment to maintaining 8% growth during the Asian financial crisis in 1998. However, today, China lacks a leader with the necessary economic credibility. Officials will need to back their words with actions, directing funds towards infrastructure, pensions, and similar initiatives. These tools should be effective if implemented.

The challenge lies in the fact that they require a level of generosity that some leaders in China find unpalatable. Additionally, they demand a dedication to growth that appears to be lacking.The objective would be to prevent a distress-induced property sell-off, boost household incomes, and replenish corporate order books.

If deployed, stimulus measures should be sufficient to stave off deflation, control unemployment, and ensure that China’s economy reaches its potential in the coming years. Low inflation, in fact, presents both a threat and an opportunity. It suggests that there is still room for medium-term expansion in the economy, even if long-term growth potential is constrained.

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However, two significant caveats must be considered.

First, fiscal actions will not eliminate the long-term challenges that cast a shadow over China’s economic future. The nation will still grapple with demographic decline and diplomatic complexities, with its workforce expected to shrink more rapidly in the 2030s. Additionally, the impact of America’s restrictions on semiconductor exports will become more pronounced as technology continues to advance.

The second caveat pertains to political dynamics. If China’s government acts urgently, it possesses the necessary tools to engineer a recovery in the latter part of this year.

The critical question is whether it will use them.

Critics fear President Xi Jinping lacks the credibility and focus of his predecessors. He now prioritizes national greatness over growth, security over efficiency, and resilience over comfort.

His focus is on fortifying the economy rather than satisfying consumers. These conflicting priorities may hinder China’s leaders from taking the necessary steps to stimulate demand. President Xi no longer pursues growth at any cost, which has resulted in a growing toll on the economy. However, the more likely scenario is continued weak growth. The primary policy question now is how quickly the government will transition from stimulus measures to a more substantial overhaul of its growth strategy.

Assessment China finds itself in a dilemma. If spending remains weak because households and entrepreneurs fear the party’s intrusive policymaking, their confidence will not recover until President Xi commits to exercising restraint - a pledge that he cannot credibly make. Even if the setbacks of the past two years have tempered his approach, he cannot prove that he will not change course again.

The party lacks the authority to constrain its own power.

Amidst an economic crisis, Beijing’s choice to significantly increase defence spending, along with the Chinese Communist Party’s shift from a “peaceful rise” approach to a more assertive “wolf warrior” diplomacy, reflects a deliberate strategic shift.

While Beijing has taken certain measures, it has not introduced major reforms as in the past, such as in the 2008 financial crisis. However, the reforms then hiked up local government debt, which the economy is still recovering. Concerned about its systemic municipal debt, China is being cautious in its reforms this time.

HEALTH CARE

AN EMERGING ENTITY WITH A HIGH FATALITY Nipah Virus Infection, an Emerging Zoonosis poses a serious threat to World Health Dr. Gifty Immanuel MD, PhD is theMedical Director at Synergia Foundation.

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ipah Virus Disease is caused by an RNA Nipah Virus (NiV) that primarily circulates in fruit-eating bats of the Pteropodidae family. The virus can be transmitted when humans or other animals (like pigs and horses) come into contact with the infected fluid from bats or foods and fruits contaminated by bats.

Direct human-to-human transmission can also happen through the exchange of body fluids from a Nipah-infected person. Nipah virus infection has a high fatality rate of up to 75 per cent, and no directly acting antivirals or vaccinations are currently available. The virus is named Nipah after the village ‘Sungai Nipah’ in Malaysia, where the first case was identified in March 1999.

After our experiences with COVID-19, Nipah virus infection is the next primary virus that presents a grave threat to global health and wellness.

SIGNS & SYMPTOMS The Nipah virus predominantly affects the nervous system, causing encephalitis and the respiratory system, causing pneumonia and distress. The infected person can lapse into a deep coma or have respiratory failure, requiring assistance. The disease has an incubation period of 14 days or even less. It starts abruptly with fever, headache, vomiting, dizziness, and progressive reduction in the level of consciousness requiring

After our experiences with COVID-19, Nipah virus infection is the next primary virus that presents a grave threat to global health and wellness. intensive care. Within 3-4 days, there can be severe neurological damage, deterioration, coma, and death. Even survivors of Nipah have long-term neurological sequelae.

GEOGRAPHY & DISTRIBUTION Malaysia, Singapore, and Bangladesh have been regional hotspots of Nipah’s emergence. Kozhikode, Kerala in India, has had outbreaks in (2018,2019,2021 and 2023) and the case fatality has been as high as 91 per cent. The environmental source remains a mystery; ongoing field investigation might reveal the source in the future.

High-Risk Factors for Nipah Transmission include the following: • Traditional practices like consuming palm sap (contaminated with bat saliva at night during collection).

• Surface contamination in hospitals and exchange of body fluids while caring for patients with Nipah Virus Disease.

• Humans and animals that consume fruits and nuts eaten or chewed by Nipah-infected bats.

•Visiting caves or haunted buildings where Nipah-infected bats roost.

• Climbing trees with a large colony of bats perching on branches and leaves.

AN EMERGING ENTITY WITH A HIGH FATALITY

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Fruit bats collection site positive for Henipavirus Henipavirus outbreaks (1997-2008) Home range of pteropus genus of fruit bats Home range of Pteropodidae family of fruit bats Countries at risk (serological evidence) Countries with reported outbreaks

Source : World Health Organization

• Exposure to Nipah infected sick animals like cows, horses, and pigs.

• Consuming meat from animals infected with Nipah.

• Having bats as exotic pets, handling bats, and ecotourism in bat-infested zones.

use due to scarcity. Preventing exposure to bats and their fluids remains the mainstay; early identification of infected cases and intensive care may improve survival.

NIPAH VIRUS EMERGENCE & PREVENTION The Nipah virus, once confined to fruit-eating bats, has spilled over to human and animal populations due to several reasons ranging from rapid deforestation and interference in the bat’s habitat to the destruction of fruit-bearing trees forcing the bats to search for alternate avenues for food, in urban areas.

HOST RANGE The Primary reservoir are Fruit bats and a few other species of bats. While secondarily pigs, horses, cows, and humans can be infected.

DIAGNOSIS Virus isolation, Nucleic Acid Testing, Immuno-Assays, and Antibody levels have to be done in specialized laboratories with biosafety. NIV Pune and HSADL Bhopal are a few labs specialized in handling Nipah virus samples in India.

Loss of natural fruit sources leads bats to forage in fruit farms that are usually integrated with pig farming.

In such large-scale animal husbandry (pig farms) units, the animals can be infected by eating fruits bitten by bats. This starts a chain of infections, resulting in foodborne transmission and infection of the animal handlers. Livestock infection can have an amplifying effect through aerosolization and coughing in pigs. Similarly, visiting bat-infested caves or abandoned buildings and consuming palm sap contaminated with bat secretions is a proven risk factor for acquiring the Nipah virus.

Avoiding the abovementioned risk factors could form a formidable strategy for protecting animal and human health.

TREATMENT

Refrences

Treatment is largely supportive of respiratory and neurological care. Antivirals like Ribavirin and Favipiravir have not been proven to be effective. Monoclonal antibody against the Nipah virus (m102.4) from Queensland Health has to be found to be effective if administered early in the course of illness. However, this therapeutic agent may not be available for large-scale

Bennett J. E. Dolin R. & Blaser M. J. (2020). Mandell douglas and bennett’s principles and practice of infectious diseases (Ninth). Elsevier. Douglas D. Richman. (n.d.). Clinical virology fourth edition. American Society of Microbiology. Epstein, J. H., Field, H. E., Luby, S., Pulliam, J. R., & Daszak, P. (2006). Nipah virus: impact, origins, and causes of emergence. Current infectious disease reports, 8(1), 59–65.

ENERGY

A NEW DAWN FOR NUCLEAR?

“Nuclear energy can help make the energy sector’s journey away from unabated fossil fuels faster and more secure”-International Energy Agency Report, September 2022.

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apan’s Fukushima nuclear plant that was devastated in a fire after the 2011 tsunami triggered a massive storm of protest, both within Japan and outside, with its decision to release the second batch of treated radioactive wastewater into the sea on October 5th. During the first release, spread over 17 days, 7800 tons of treated water was let out; the second release plans to vent similar quantity over the same period. The Tokyo Electric Power Company, the plant operator, has over 1.34 million tons of radioactive waste water awaiting disposal in 1000 tanks! Unsurprisingly, the most agitated are the influential fishing communities that harvest fish from coastal waters.

The news has once again re-started the debate on whether nuclear power is a good ‘green’ alternative. Energy in all its forms, fossil or green, is the lifeblood of our civilisation; there is a clear correlation between energy consumption and the Human Development Index (HDI), a value that is an indicator of a nation’s health, education and living standards. Therefore, fundamentally transforming energy sector is the single most important step towards achieving sustainable development goals, combatting climate change, and meeting increasing energy requirements.

While every human being acknowledges that fossil fuels are the causative factor for nearly three-quarters

Several negative factors are stalling the investment in nuclear power in advanced countries. As per the International Energy Agency Report, September 2022, this ranges from the exorbitantly high costs of new projects once all the safety features are built in to minimise the danger of an accident, long gestation periods, unfavourable electricity markets where assured returns on the investments are not forthcoming, stringent policy environment etc. of all greenhouse gas emissions that threaten the very survival of this planet, the efforts to turn the tap off fossil fuel seem half-hearted, if not outrightly, hostile. In this context, the debate of nuclear energy comes to the fore as its proponents remain firm in their conviction that it provides a credible alternative to fossil fuel and a process that has been fine-tuned over the last 80 years with many new innovations lined up. Its critics call it a ticking time bomb and are quick to point out Three Mile Island 1979, Chernobyl 1986, and Fukushima 2011, to name only the prominent ones that grabbed international attention.

The truth lies somewhere in between; yes, there is danger, a grave one, but then again, there is no energy technology that is fully without risk to people or the

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THE GLOBAL RACE FOR ADVANCED NUCLEAR

Reactor Design Types Molten Salt Reactor Fluoride Salt- cooled Hight Temperature Reactor Liquid Metal - cooled Fast Reactor High Temperature Gas Reactor Pebble Bed Reactor

Nuclear Battery Reactor Small Modular Reactor Fusion Reactor Super- Critical CO² Reactor Super- Critical Water - Cooled Reactor

environment. For example, a decommissioned turbine blade is a costly nuisance. The blades need to be cut up and transported to a centralised facility. The pieces are mechanically broken into increasingly smaller bits with a variety of machines until they reach a size that contains fibres of a desired length for the material’s next life. Despite having the lowest carbon emissions, wind energy sectors pose their own challenges to remaining green in the long run. And, the less said about the disposal of lithium batteries used to store solar/ wind generated power, the better.

NUCLEAR ENERGY: A GLOBAL PANACEA? It is not surprising that those who can afford it, and possess the technical acumen to manage its complexities, nuclear energy, warts and all, remains a preferred option. Nuclear is the world’s second-largest source of low-carbon power.

As per a 2022 International Energy Agency (IEA) report titled “Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions,” nuclear power made up about 10 per cent of global electricity generation in 2020. This share has declined from 18 per cent in the late 1990s. However, nuclear is still the second-largest source of low-emissions electricity (i.e., non-fossil-based) after hydroelectricity. In 2020, nuclear electricity exceeded the total combined contribution of wind and solar PV generation worldwide despite massive growth in those renewable sources.

At the end of 2021, 439 nuclear power reactors were in operation in 32 countries around the world, with a combined capacity of 413 GW. Around 270 GW of that capacity was in advanced economies. Thirteen countries in 2021 produced at least one-quarter of their electricity from nuclear.

France gets up to around 70 per cent of its electricity from nuclear energy, while Ukraine, Slovakia, Belgium and Hungary get about 50 per cent. Japan was used to relying on nuclear power for more than one-quarter of its electricity until Fukushima happened; it is expected to return to somewhere near that level soon.

The growing popularity of nuclear power generation in some quarters can be credited to the substantial improvement in their performance along with the multi-layered safety built into their designs. More importantly, nuclear reactors are increasingly getting more efficient; over the last 40 years, the proportion of reactors reaching high-capacity factors has increased significantly. For example, 68 per cent of reactors achieved a capacity factor higher than 80 per cent in 2021, compared to less than 30 per cent in the 1970s.

Only 6 per cent of reactors had a capacity factor lower than 50 per cent in 2021, compared to just over 20 per cent in the 1970s.

Marine propulsion is an important feature not only to power submarines and aircraft carriers but also powerful ice breakers that make sea travel in the Arctic a safe possibility. Over 160 ships, primarily submarines, are propelled by 200 nuclear reactors, and over 13,000 reactor years of experience have been gained with marine reactors. Russia also operates a fleet of large nuclear-powered icebreakers and has more under construction. It has also connected a floating nuclear power plant with two 32 MWe reactors to the grid in the remote arctic region of Pevek. The reactors are adapted from those powering icebreakers.

The market leadership in nuclear energy production is slowly but steadily shifting from advanced economies to emerging markets. While advanced economies still hold over 70 per cent of the global reactor fleet, they are ageing war horses with limited replacement plans.

In an emerging global giant like China, the average age of nuclear capacity is just five years, 15 years in India, it is 36 years in the U.S. and 38 years in Europe! Russia and China are also taking the lead in constructing new reactors, with 27 of 31 reactors that began construction in 2017 with Russian and Chinese designs.

THE INHERENT CHALLENGES Several negative factors are stalling the investment in nuclear power in advanced countries. As per the International Energy Agency Report, September 2022, this ranges from the exorbitantly high costs of new

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projects once all the safety features are built in to minimise the danger of an accident, long gestation periods, unfavourable electricity markets where assured returns on the investments are not forthcoming, stringent policy environment etc. In most countries, including India, whenever there are reports of a new nuclear power plant coming up in any part of the country, green activists are mobilised, and momentum of public outcry is built up to prevent the project from becoming a reality; no politician would put his career at risk for the sake of cheap electricity!

Public phobia against real or imagined radioactive accidents has been fuelled by the famous nuclear accidents at Three Miles Island, Chornobyl and Fukushima Daiichi, which have been made even more fearsome by several Hollywood nuclear Armageddon films. The Windscale Piles nuclear facility in the UK was one of the earliest accidents. In 1957, its reactor caught fire, and a 2007 study estimated that the consequent leak led to over 200 cancer cases in the surrounding population.

Another scary scenario being played out by security analysts in most countries running nuclear power plants is whether, in a conflict situation, the enemy could target nuclear power plants to turn them into nuclear weapons sitting on their laps. A case in point is the controversy over Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia power plant, Europe’s largest nuclear facility; remember, before the war, fossil fuel-starved Ukraine produced over 50 per cent of its electricity from nuclear power.

Now, the same facility threatened the very survival of the country. It is a sobering acceptance that no international treaty can prevent our nuclear power plants from being targeted by a desperate and frustrated enemy. Apart from Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine operates 15 more nuclear reactors, making them ‘radiological mines’ (as described by Bennet Ramberg in his 1984 book,’ Nuclear Power Plants as Weapons of the Enemy’).

Another concern is disposing of radioactive waste such as uranium mill tailings, spent (used) reactor fuel and other radioactive waste like personal protective gear worn by the workers. These materials can remain radioactive and dangerous to humans for thousands of years and, hence, are subject to costly regulations that govern their handling, transportation, storage and disposal.

Brazil’s Goiania experienced one of the worst nuclear contamination incidents ever. A teletherapy unit that still contained caesium chloride was left behind after a city radiotherapy institute moved. Two scavengers discovered the unit on September 13, 1987, hauled it away in a wheelbarrow, and then sold it to a junkyard. The owner unintentionally exposed friends and family to radiation by inviting them inside to see the glowing blue material. They all left at that point, irradiating friends and family members across the city as they went their

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separate ways. In total, 245 individuals were exposed to radiation, and four passed away.

Beyond all the scare-mongering, the real reason is the financial viability of commercial nuclear energy plants which explains the dip in building new ones, especially in advanced economies. For example, the construction of first-of-a-kind Generation III reactors has been significantly delayed with huge cost overruns. Nuclear energy also loses out in competitiveness as, in most countries, power is a market that does not remunerate for the low emissions and dispatchable attributes of nuclear power.

Nuclear weaponisation is an international concern, and subsidising fission-based power plants to weapon manufacturers is a big concern for countries. About 190 countries have signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. It comprises two categories: Non-nuclear-weapon states (NNWS) and Nuclear weapon states (NWS): the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom. Only South Sudan, India, Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea remain outside the treaty.

THE INDIAN EXPERIENCE India is outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty due to its weapons programme. It was largely excluded from trade in nuclear plant equipment and materials for 34 years until 2009. Since 2010, a fundamental incompatibility between India’s civil liability law and international conventions limits foreign technology provision. However, the Indian government is committed to growing its nuclear power capacity as part of its massive infrastructure development programme.

External pressure has compelled India to develop a largely indigenous nuclear power programme, with 22 operable nuclear reactors and a combined net capacity of 6.8 GWe. Due to earlier trade bans and a lack of indigenous uranium, India has uniquely been developing a nuclear fuel cycle to exploit its thorium reserves. In 2021, nuclear generated 3.2 per cent of the country’s electricity. At the end of July 2022, eight reactors were under construction in India, with a combined total of 6.7 GWe. In line with past practices such as the eight- Rajasthan nuclear plant, the Nuclear Power Corporation of India (NPCIL) intends to set up five further “Nuclear Energy Parks”, each with a capacity for up to eight new-generation reactors of 1,000 MWe, six reactors of 1600 MWe or simply 10,000 MWe at a single location.

By 2032, 40-45 GWe would be provided from these five.

Beyond media headlines, India has had its share of nuclear reactor accidents. A major accident in an Indian nuclear plant was due to a turbine hall fire in 1993 at Narora, which resulted in a 17-hour total station blackout. In 2022, there was an uproar when six workers in the Kalpakkam Reprocessing Plant were exposed to a severe dose of radiation due to a defective valve. As per

A NEW DAWN FOR NUCLEAR?

the Outlook Magazine of 2 Feb 22, its reporter was told by the Director of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, “This is the worst accident in radiation exposure in the history of nuclear India.”

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Number Of private fusion companies in existence by year

THE WAY AHEAD As the only proven, scalable and reliable low-carbon source of energy, nuclear power will be required to play a pivotal role if the world is to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels to address climate change and chronic air pollution. Climate science statistics show that nuclear power has saved 1.8 million lives by preventing the burning of fossil fuels. On a life-cycle basis, nuclear power emits a median value of 12g CO2 equivalent/kWh, which has been estimated for nuclear – similar to wind and lower than all types of solar.

Advocates say that as renewable energy grows, small modular reactors can better handle the variable nature of wind and solar. Solar and wind energy generate energy 10-30 per cent of the time. This becomes challenging when dealing with consistent and fluctuating energy requirements. Sources claim that today’s nuclear reactors can ramp their power up and down daily to a tune of 2-5 per cent per minute.

The uses of nuclear technology extend well beyond the provision of low-carbon energy. It helps control the spread of disease, assists doctors in diagnosing and treating patients, and powers our most ambitious missions to explore space.

Food and Agriculture: Nuclear technologies have made a big difference in detecting, controlling, and preventing transboundary animal and zoonotic diseases.

Adding nitrogen-15 stable isotope fertiliser to the soil to trace fertilizer uptake and soil health is a technique tested and proved on soybean crops in Benin. The nuclear-derived, sterile insect technique (SIT) is an environmentally friendly pest management method.

Consumer Products: One of the most common uses of radioisotopes today is in household smoke detectors. These contain a small amount of americium-241, which is a decay product of plutonium-241 originating in nuclear reactors. Clocks, watches and ‘exit’ signs in buildings, ships, hospitals, etc. use the property of radioluminescence that is perceived as a “glow” to the human eye. Non-stick pans are often treated with radiation to achieve cross-linking of the coating material (typically PTFE), ensuring adherence to the pan surface, and increasing abrasion resistance. Some photocopiers use small amounts of radioactive polonium to prevent static build-up. Gamma radiation is widely used to sterilise consumer cosmetics, such as hair products and contact lens solutions, and to remove foreign bodies, such as allergens.

Industry: Manufacturers use radioisotopes as industrial tracers to monitor fluid flow and filtration, detect leaks, and gauge engine wear and corrosion of process equipment. Radioactive materials are used to inspect metal parts and welds’ integrity across various indus-

Source : The global fusion industry

tries. The feasibility of integrated nuclear desalination plants has been proven with over 150 reactor years of experience, chiefly in Kazakhstan, India, and Japan.

Medicine: An advantage of nuclear over X-ray techniques is that both bone and soft tissue can be imaged very successfully. The radioisotope technetium-99m, with a half-life of six hours, is most widely used among isotopes that give the patient a very low radiation dose.

They are widely used to indicate tumours and to study the heart, lungs, liver, kidneys, blood circulation and volume, and bone structure. The proposition of nuclear power as a sustainable energy source is fundamentally robust due to its innate energy density and its internalization of health and environmental costs.

An analysis of nuclear energy’s characteristics within a sustainable development framework shows that the approach adopted within the nuclear energy sector is consistent with a central goal of sustainable development - passing a range of assets to future generations while minimising environmental impacts and burdens.

Assessment No energy technology is fully without risk to people or the environment. The biggest factor in favour of nuclear power is that it is the world’s second-largest source of low-carbon power, and the performance of nuclear reactors has improved substantially over time to ensure safety.

The uses of nuclear technology extend well beyond the provision of low-carbon energy. It helps control the spread of disease, assists doctors in diagnosing and treating patients, powers ambitious missions to explore space, aids the food and agriculture industry, and commercially used exit signs and smoke detectors.

The nuclear energy sector has seen much fewer human error-related accidents as opposed to past rates. Designing nuclear power plants with multiple safety features and procedures in place to prevent accidents from happening and to mitigate the consequences of any accidents that do occur. Implementing tertiary layers around safety mechanisms protects the ecosystem and energy industry.

ENVIRONMENT

MELTING THE FROZEN STATUS QUO

The biggest challenge confronting the sustainable development of the Arctic is its changing ecology amidst international contestations.

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parsely populated and generally excluded from global economics from a long-term perspective, the Arctic has been a relatively untouched ice-bank that holds together climate equilibrium. However, since the early twentieth century, economic activity has ramped up due to the discovery of massive oil and natural gas reserves.

The present Arctic circumstance is a massive web of geopolitical confrontations, resource exploration and excavation, territorial and maritime disputes, and environmental protection. All these owe their inception to a natural occurrence, albeit accelerated by human activity-the melting of the permanent ice cover. This has exponentially enhanced the potential for resource extraction and other economic and strategic possibilities.

For the survival of our species and our planet, humankind must seek a sustainable path for the development of the abundant resources of the Arctic. This would essentially rest upon the key themes of controlling rising emissions, protecting the biodiversity and indigenous communities, sustainable exploiting of its fisheries and comprehensive energy policies.

UNDERSTANDING THE ARCTIC GEOGRAPHY National geographies and conflicting claims add to

For the survival of our species and our planet, humankind must seek a sustainable path for the development of the abundant resources of the Arctic.

This would essentially rest upon the key themes of controlling rising emissions, protecting the biodiversity and indigenous communities, sustainable exploiting of its fisheries and comprehensive energy policies the conundrum. The so-called ‘Arctic States’- Canada, Denmark (via Greenland), Iceland, Norway, Russia, and the U.S.- all have claims to portions of the Arctic, which are often overlapping.

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) is empowered to mediate these claims.

Of the eight disputes originally registered, only two remain. The first is between USA and Canada in the Beaufort Sea, and the second for the Lomonosov ridge - an underwater mountain range that cuts through the North Pole - between Canada, Russia, and Denmark.

The Lomonosov Ridge is clearly the most significant one as the successful claimant stands to extend the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by a whopping 54,850 nautical miles, provided they can prove that the ridge is an extension of their continental land mass. Russia has submitted a convincing claim to the Commission

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indigenous communities. Methane emissions are deadly for global warming and are responsible for roughly 25 per cent of it, which brings it the colloquial nickname ‘sleeping giants of the carbon cycle’.

Arctic methane release is due to the thawing of permafrost. Organic matter decays, releasing methane, which creates a feedback loop - increased methane concentration increases global warming, which increases melting permafrost, which in turn increases methane release. Perma frost would occur naturally due to global warming, even without human activity over the ice cap.

Technologically, it is possible to trap the released methane in containers. on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) as of February 2023; however, the Commission awaits similar reports from Denmark and Canada before passing judgment. Even after the judgement, only diplomatic negotiations will result in a lasting resolution.

At the heart of the conflicting claims lies the massive energy bonanza that awaits exploitation. According to a 2008 United States Geological Survey (USGS) report, the Arctic is home to approximately 90 billion oil barrels, 1670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids. This comprises 13 per cent of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and 30 per cent of the world’s undiscovered natural gas reserves. The resource distribution is skewed, with most of the resources being present in the form of natural gas under Russian jurisdiction - with the biggest deposits found in the West Siberian Basin and in Arctic Alaska.

AN ECOLOGY BOMB

Alternately, stop/ slow down the melting, especially in areas where industrial activity like laying of pipelines has taken place, by artificial freezing. In places, existing villages are established over the permafrost itself, and the melting will lead to widespread displacement, which is better to avoid. Another potential solution is to engineer the ecosystem into a ‘Mammoth Steppe’ grassland, introducing large herbivores to ensure a soft green cover preventing permafrost melting.

Gas flaring is another insidious source of pollution, one which is often neglected in global calculations. Alternatives exist but are scarcely exercised due to the issue of added expense. Liquefaction storage is a possibility but significantly adds to costs. Another possibility is redirecting the gas to power nearby structures - this fails due to the necessity for transportation in the Arctic. If the transportation hurdle is overcome, this gas can be utilised in a variety of industries like cement, glass, rubber and ceramics production.

Experts have repeatedly reiterated that the Arctic is a lynchpin in our ecology survival strategy. In a 2019 report on the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum, four reasons were listed as why the Arctic Ocean is distinct from other oceans and critical to our planet’s survival. First, while this relatively small (by ocean standards) marine environment holds only one per cent of the world’s ocean volume and occupies only three per cent of the world’s ocean surface area, its impact on the global climate system is disproportionately large. Second, it absorbs over 10 per cent of the global river runoff. Third, its marine domain comprises about a third of the world’s coastlines, and lastly, it contains one-quarter of the world’s continental shelf of immense socio-ecological importance. We shall address some relevant aspects individually.

BIODIVERSITY AND INDIGENOUS COMMUNITIES

RISING EMISSIONS

Indigenous communities are also impacted - especially the Sami community in Northern Finland and the Inuit population in Greenland and Alaska. Their concerns are plenty - increased snowfall, the decline in sea ice on a yearly basis, the introduction of invasive species of birds and fish, and a decline in polar bears, seals, and Lemming (an Arctic rodent) population, which disturbs local food chains and patterns of livelihoods.

Indigenous Arctic cultures are closely intertwined with the land and environment and view external incursions for oil purposes as a colonial project.

Black carbon and methane emissions are the leading causes of global warming in the Arctic. The largest proportion of black carbon emissions are caused by gas flaring, a common practice of burning associated gas produced during excavation. It contributes to 42 per cent of surface black carbon concentrations in the Arctic, while in other parts, the average is only 3 per cent.

This contributes to warming, melting the ice cover while also harming biodiversity and the livelihoods of

Oil drilling is the biggest intruder into this pristine ecosystem. Drilling noise, disturbance in space, and fallout from explosions and gas flares cause disturbances in marine mammals’ navigation, foraging, and mating patterns. They are also at risk from potential oil spills, pipeline leaks, or shipping accidents. Emergency responses in the Arctic could take days or weeks, given the terrain difficulties and infrastructural deficiencies.

Moreover, there is a lack of incentive. Arctic interventions demand a lot of resources, and there is no guarantee of returns. Hence, Arctic damage is generally irreversible.

MELTING THE FROZEN STATUS QUO

The consensus remains that more Arctic areas need protected status. As per 2021 data, the territorial cover of protected areas stood at 21 per cent, overshooting the Aichi Biodiversity Target of 17 per cent. However, the marine protected areas undershot the Aichi Targets by five percentage points, being at 5 per cent instead of the required 10 per cent. In order to preserve Arctic ecosystems, these targets serve merely as a milestone.

Given that the Arctic is an area disproportionately affected by climate change, ecosystems are particularly vulnerable, and efforts to increase the number of habitat protections are key to achieving this goal. Although it is too late to go back to natural solutions, an active effort needs to be made to solve key conservation problems in the Arctic. These problems are here to stay and threaten the livelihoods of indigenous cultures separate from industrial involvement in the region.

COMMERCIAL FISHERIES Fisheries disputes are a highly contested in the Arctic and are likely to increase over the next few decades.

Rising sea temperatures push fish stocks to migrate towards the north. Key areas to watch are the Barents and Bering Seas and fishing in the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO). The Bering Sea is the site of renewed Russia-USA competition over access to one of the world’s largest fish stocks owing to northward migration. The Barents Sea is a similar case in which mackerel stocks have sharply risen due to the mentioned fish migration trends. The competition stands between Iceland, Denmark through the Faroe Islands, Norway, and the EU. The increase in fish stocks has inspired overfishing tendencies, especially by Icelandic fisheries. This has led to quotas being set multilaterally. Iceland has dissented from these frameworks and has existed outside of the quota scheme since 2019. Snow crab fisheries on the Svalbard continental shelf are another Barents concern. Being a Norwegian territory, the country has limited fishing licences to a select few domestic companies and kept it separate from foreign interests. Snow crab

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fisheries are amongst the most valuable for Canadian, American, and Russian fisheries, which are all eyeing inclusion in the Svalbard regime.

The CAO fisheries regime is unique in that there exists a moratorium on fishing in the region from 2021 until 2037 - the first time a ban has been upheld before any sort of fishing began. This accompanied an agreement of scientific cooperation to study the migratory dynamics of the fish. Correct management of the area might ensure a long-term stock of sustainable food production. The CAO is unique in that it can only be reached by passing through the EEZ of Arctic countries, thus enabling the monitoring of foreign fishing vessels.

This opens up the possibility of maintaining a gate-kept CAO, preventing global overfishing in the region. However, Russia and American Alaska have already begun preparations to exploit the first-mover advantage when it opens up. In the long term, such a gatekeeping of food resources is likely to inspire conflict with outer interests like China, South Korea, and Japan.

The 2021 moratorium on fishing activity in the CAO is a prime example of the precautionary principle. A careful consideration of the migration dynamics of fish stocks during the moratorium will ensure the production of sustainable fishing guidelines in the following years. Another example concerns the proper management of the ‘Donut Hole’ pollock overfishing in the 1990s between the USA and Russia in the Northern Pacific. Cooperation allowed for pollock stocks to return, allowing fishing activities to resume sustainably.

However, it is important to note that domestic political interest in expanding fisheries is rising in Arctic nations. Also, fisheries conflicts have strong precedents in regions like the South China Sea, the Indian Ocean, and off the coast of Argentina.

ENERGY GEOPOLITICS Arctic environmental concerns, which are geopolitical, centre around the military and energy policies of

MELTING THE FROZEN STATUS QUO

the Arctic states and, in some cases, non-Arctic states (particularly China). The Arctic Council mediates these interests. It accommodates several working groups on assessing and monitoring climate change, conservation of flora and fauna, emergency response, marine protection, and sustainable development.

Energy production in the Arctic has been on an upward trend since 2010. It is important to note that even though Western Arctic countries are understood to be less ecologically damaging in their actions, they, too, are expanding excavation activities. The USA produced 483,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2022 and licensed ConocoPhillips’ Willow project west of the Alaskan Prudhoe Bay earlier this year. This has agitated environmental groups domestically and internationally.

Arctic Alaska has been at the forefront of negotiations for Inuit welfare, and the licensing was a huge setback. This is especially true for the Biden regime, which was elected with a strong ecological agenda. Norway, which produced 487,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2022, plans to expand excavation and exploration projects by 92 blocks in the Barents and Norwegian Seas. This is the result of the energy shock last year due to cutting Russian dependence. In effect, the oil is still coming from the Arctic, but produced by Norway instead of Russia.

The country in focus remains Russia, though, as it produces 90 per cent of the Arctic’s share in energy production owing to its geographical dominance. It produced 10.74 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2022. Russian energy policy in the Arctic leading up to 2035 is ramping up growth in hydrocarbon production and transportation, with plans to increase excavation and liquefaction of natural gas in the Northern Arctic.

Russia seeks to increase Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) production from 9 million tons (2018) to 64 million tons by 2035. It then looks to ship it through the

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Northern Sea Route, increasing the cargo volume from 32 million tons (2018) to 90 million tons by 2035.

Moving the gas towards China, India, and broader Asian markets, Russia has sanctioned thin-hulled ships to navigate the Northern Sea Route, increasing the risk of oil spillage. There are significant technological challenges to this expansion - large volumes of pipelines in the Arctic are located within the permafrost, making them susceptible to damages due to soil expansion and recession as the permafrost melts - currently forecasted at 10-18 per cent by 2030 and up to 25 per cent by 2050.

Sea ice conditions in the Northern Sea Route pose problems, which state-owned corporation Rosatom is tackling by ramping up the production of nuclear-powered icebreaker ships. Rising sea levels add to problems of erosion and flood damage in key ports, navigability for shipping, and upkeep of key pipelines.

Such large-scale production efforts will cause significant disturbance to local ecosystems and generate a feedback loop that worsens the climate-related challenges - faster melting of permafrost cover, rising sea levels, and increased Arctic haze due to air pollution.

To make it realistic, Russian investment will have to increase proportionately - money that works opposite to interests towards green transition. Russia has built up its military in the Arctic along the development of the Northern Sea Route, opening up pathways into Asia. Security forces have prevented any foreign presence from interfering along the route.

NATO has responded in kind, with Finland being the most recent member as of April 2023. NATO has a long history of armed deterrence in the Arctic, going back to the Cold War. Fear of Russian escalation, NATO has ramped up drills in the region from 2015 onwards, with nine registered as of 2022. Russia, fearing its strategic interests along the Arctic Kola Peninsula, the site of its Northern Fleet, has also ramped up militarisation with sea drills along the Alaskan border. They have expanded military bases, radar capabilities, and additional

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airfields. There has been an arms escalation and posturing exercises on both ends. This increases the risk of an actual military encounter. Any military conflict will have a cascading effect on energy production capabilities, pollution, damage to biodiversity and indigenous cultures, sustainable management of fisheries, and peaceful cooperation within the Arctic Council.

Besides, even additional military presence in the region will have similar effects.

the remote grid problem. Another promising prospect is Russian-Chinese cooperation in hydrogen energy production in the Yamal peninsula. Any sustained largescale transition that positively impacts the divestment from fossil fuels within and outside the Arctic will need multilateral frameworks and cooperation. This will require resuming and empowering the Arctic Council.

Moreover, Russian participation in the Arctic Council has stopped, given the deteriorating relations with the West following the Ukraine war. Russian absence from the Arctic Council makes any international response to environmental concerns in the Arctic mostly obsolete, given that Russia holds the maximum territory (53 per cent) and is expanding its production capability in the Arctic.

In March last year, India released its Arctic Policy.

The policy, with a theme of ‘building a partnership for sustainable development’, looks at the Arctic from the perspective of science and research, climate change, economic resources, and connectivity for global trade.

The Arctic is of particular interest to Indian scientists given that climate change affects Indian monsoons, better informs the study of the melting of Himalayan glaciers, and forecasts rising sea levels that threaten India’s 1300 island territories. As a result, India has eight research stations and has sent 13 scientific expeditions in the region. With well-established relations with every Arctic country, India has also been an observer of the Arctic Council since 2013.

SEEKING SUSTAINABLE SOLUTIONS Resuming Arctic Council activities are key for lasting cooperation in the Arctic. Reinstating Russian presence is a hard bargain given the current polarised political and diplomatic climate; however, it is equally necessary for Arctic governance. There is precedent, however, with regard to the co-management of fisheries with Norway in the Barents Sea, which survived even the Ukraine War. According to the Norwegian Chairman of the Council, there is progress on Russian cooperation and positive signals - it remains to be seen whether implementation of environmental policies is yet on the table. Leveraging the decoupling of environmental governance from international relations might just define the progress made in Arctic governance in the upcoming decades.

There are two facets to a sustainable energy transition in the Arctic - reliance on alternative sources within the region and a decline in outer interests dictating the Arctic energy supply. Denmark, Norway, and Iceland have already established a strong decarbonisation trend and mainly rely on renewable sources. Even Norway maintains a stake in hydrocarbon production almost exclusively for export purposes. It is up to the remaining Arctic countries to follow suit - Canada, Alaska, and Russia.

The main challenge, however, is ensuring a clean energy supply to remote communities. At present, 80 per cent of communities living in remote Arctic regions rely on diesel generators. Installation of grids for remote regions is extremely expensive, and fuel burning is much more economically viable. Drilling for geothermal water is the most viable for remote regions. These are as reliable as fossil fuels, providing stable power and cause significantly less emissions. Other transitional measures exist on a broader scale in the Arctic region. For instance, solar panels are being installed in Northern Svalbard, but these are not viable for polar nights.

Wind farms are viable, for instance, in areas like the Russian Murmansk, but these disrupt indigenous communities’ migration routes and are unable to address

INDIA’S STAKE

With respect to energy, India’s ONGC has a 20 per cent in oil excavation activities in Sakhalin in the Russian Arctic and greatly benefits from Russian oil and gas exports through the Vladivostok-Chennai shipping route. This has increased since the Ukraine war as Russia diverted its European shipments towards Asia.

Therefore, any divestment from Arctic fossil fuel production will be influenced by Indian demand.

Assessment In order to divest from fossil fuel production in the Arctic, a serious reduction in demand from Western Arctic countries and Asian developing economies is required. Even if this is achieved, methane release due to melting permafrost will remain the defining Arctic ecological challenge.

Habitat protection for biodiversity and indigenous communities can only go so far; a large-scale relocation for these communities will become a reality in the upcoming decades. The inclusion of foreign interests in the CAO is a strong potential trigger for Arctic fisheries conflict. Equally strong is a motivation for sustainable management as this region is a long-term food resource, and there is unanimous consensus on the ill effects of the Arctic conflict.

While the Antarctic is unequivocally accepted as a Global Commons, much of the Arctic region falls within the recognised national jurisdiction of the ‘Arctic Five’-Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia and the U.S. None are willing to relinquish their ownership and hence the increasing danger to the Arctic. This conundrum needs resolution at the UN.

GLOBAL SCAN

A RUNOFF ELECTION

The deepening security chaos in Ecuador after a first-round runoff is symbolic of the multiple crises affecting the country.

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cuador is among the smaller nations in South America and is getting smaller; over the years, it has dwindled to just 40 per cent of its original size due to multiple instances of land loss to neighbouring countries!

Nature has blessed it with an advantageous equatorial location with abundant natural resources. Theoretically, it ticks all the boxes required for a nation poised for substantial economic, social, and political development. Unfortunately, the reality is far more stark, brought about by a deficiency in effective political governance to harness its wealth. Today, Ecuador is perceived, and not entirely wrongly, as a country marred by corruption, governance challenges, instability, and a lack of competitiveness.

Ecuador is currently undergoing an election, which could become a defining moment in its history, provided they are free and fair. Unfortunately, controversies in South America always overshadow elections and Ecuador is no exception.

This election was triggered by President Guillermo Lasso’s dissolution of the National Assembly in May, a move aimed at avoiding impeachment over allegations of his failure to address a problematic contract involving a state-owned oil transport company and a private tanker firm. But then, he is not the first president in Ecuador to hover over the fine line between legal and illegal decisions. The new president, once confirmed in October, will serve the remaining 18 months of Mr. Lasso’s term. Naturally, President Lasso opted not to

While security concerns dominate the current discourse, voters consider other factors like economic growth, corruption, and unemployment. The candidates present different economic models, with Gonzalez favouring a stronger state role in the economy and Noboa advocating for a more centrist and liberal approach. run in this special election. Along with the presidential elections, the electorate weighed in on two other ballot measures, one regarding halting oil extraction in a portion of the Amazon jungle and the other authorising the exploitation of minerals like gold, silver, and copper in the Andean Choco forests around Quito.

THE ELECTION Gonzalez, a protege of former leftist President Rafael Correa, emerged as the frontrunner among the eight contenders, although the assassination of candidate Fernando Villavicencio on August 9th in the capital, Quito, added an unpredictable dimension to the election.

The voting was peaceful, a relief to many Ecuadoreans concerned about the political violence that has plagued the country. Nevertheless, there were several shooting incidents leading up to the election.

With over 85 per cent of the votes counted, Luisa Gonzalez is in the lead with about 33 per cent of the support. Meanwhile, Daniel Noboa, who had not previously polled above fifth place, garnered a surprising 24

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per cent of the votes. These two top candidates will now advance to a runoff election scheduled for October 15.

To secure an outright win, a candidate needed to either attain 50 per cent of the vote or have at least 40 per cent with a 10-point lead over the closest competitor.

Christian Zurita was in third place with 16 per cent of the vote. Although his name was not originally on the ballot, he found himself suddenly pushed into the husting with the tragic assassination of Fernando Villavicencio.

Allegedly, during this election, authorities reported cyberattacks from various countries, including Russia, Ukraine, China, and others, targeting the country’s electronic voting system. While these attacks disrupted access to the vote, the recorded votes remained secure.

Despite the challenges, the winner of the October runoff will have limited time in office, serving only until 2025, completing the term left unfinished by outgoing President Guillermo Lasso, who called the snap election in May to avoid impeachment.

POLITICAL INTRIGUES Divisions among voters mark Ecuador’s political landscape. Former President Rafael Correa remains an influential political figure in the country despite his controversial flight to Belgium in 2020, pursued by a corruption conviction. Rafael Correa is credited with reducing poverty during his tenure. Those seeking to diminish Correa’s impact support the pro-business candidate Daniel Noboa.

Gonzalez, a lawyer and former legislator, has lost no opportunity to blow up her affiliation and admiration for her political mentor, Rafael Correa, and the strategy seems to have worked. She has promised increased public spending, social programs, and efforts to address the root causes of violence, such as poverty and inequality.

She has also called for strengthening the judiciary for improved prosecutions.

Daniel Noboa, the son of banana magnate Álvaro Noboa, leads the centrist Accion Democratica Nacional party and has pledged to create more job opportunities for young people, attract foreign investment, and implement anti-corruption measures, including penalties for tax evasion. At 35, he is the youngest among the eight candidates and could not gain significant traction in pre-election polls. He is also from a powerful political dynasty; his father having fought for the presidency five times and amassed wealth in the country’s banana industry.

THE RISE OF CRIME For long, Ecuadorians were smug in the knowledge that, unlike many of their neighbours, their country had comparative security and peace. Ecuador was one of Latin America’s least violent countries. It was the ‘island of peace between war and insurgency-torn Peru and Colombia.

Now, as per a June article of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), it has the region’s fourth highest homicide rate, higher than even Mexico! Today’s violent gang violence has wreaked havoc over the entire country, and its prison riots are the most brutal and catch global media attention.

Since 2016, South American crime cartels have been insidiously setting up their lethal infrastructure inside this peaceful and beautiful country, especially once the fratricidal half-a-century-long war in Colombia ended.

With Colombian drug production reaching record levels, the cartels needed fresh routes to push their drugs into the U.S. Ecuador was ripe for the picking, with high unemployment and no local crime groups to contest the intrusion of outsiders. Apparently, the drug money did not take long to infect the political establishment, as it has done in most of LATAM. As per CFR, “for criminal groups, Ecuador’s high-quality road network, dollarized economy and lack of visa requirements for foreign nationals also lowered the costs of doing business”.

The rise of violence was spurred when the Ministry of Justice was scrapped as a cost-saving measure, losing control over the prison system. The country’s mega-prisons, brimming with hardened criminals, soon became hubs for organised crime and the command-and-control centres for their turf wars. As per CFR, since February 2021, more than 400 inmates have been killed inside prison walls.

Corruption is seeping into every organ of the state, and cases of complicity in drug smuggling in the Armed Forces are regularly being exposed, which is a most worrying trend.

The assassination of candidate Fernando Villavicencio, which followed two other political assassinations earlier in the year, underscores the influence of crime gangs as they directly influence political choices at the highest political level in a democracy. Clearly, the state was unable to protect its politicians! Consequently, the elections were conducted in a climate of fear, with can-

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didates taking extra security precautions and a significant police and military presence during voting.

The rising violence and economic challenges have prompted many Ecuadorians to emigrate. Security concerns, in particular, are a top priority for voters, exacerbated by the assassination of candidate Fernando Villavicencio, who campaigned against organised crime’s growing influence. Ecuador’s murder rate has surged since 2018, surpassing even that of Colombia and Mexico, due to its location between the world’s two largest cocaine producers.

Crime has been a central issue in this year’s presidential race, especially following the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio, a vocal anti-corruption journalist. His murder shed light on escalating violence fuelled by a cocaine boom involving transnational criminal organisations and local gangs engaged in high-level corruption and extortion, prison takeovers, and targeted killings.

REFERENDUM FOR THE ENVIRONMENT In a combined poll with an environmental referendum, Ecuadorians voted to cease oil drilling in the Amazon, which nearly 60 per cent of voters supported.

This outcome requires the state-owned oil company to halt its operations in a section of Yasuní National Park, a critical biodiversity hotspot home to hundreds of bird, amphibian, and reptile species, as well as indigenous communities like the Tagaeri and Taromenani, who live in isolation.

The result represents a significant setback for outgoing President Guillermo Lasso, who had argued that oil revenue was essential for Ecuador’s economy.

While security concerns dominate the current discourse, voters consider other factors like economic growth, corruption, and unemployment. The candidates present different economic models, with González favouring a stronger state role in the economy and No-

49

boa advocating for a more centrist and liberal approach.

Their positions on the environment also differ, with González supporting new oil drilling in the Yasuní National Park while Noboa opposes it.

In addition to addressing security concerns, the new president will face the challenge of reviving Ecuador’s economy, which has been struggling to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The country’s Central Bank lowered its growth projection for 2023 from 3.1 per cent to 2.6 per cent, with analysts predicting even slower economic performance.

These elections are pivotal for Ecuador, given the country’s escalating violence and challenges. The outcome remains uncertain, and it is unclear whether either candidate can effectively address the pressing issues that Ecuadorians are concerned about.

Assessment Addressing the security crisis will be a paramount task for the next president, though the short time frame until the 2025 election presents a challenge.

Additionally, tackling issues like overcrowded prisons and the influence of cartels will require coordinated efforts beyond Ecuador’s borders.

The upcoming elections are significant for Ecuador in the face of growing crime and challenges.

While the outcome remains uncertain, it is uncertain if either candidate can effectively address the pressing issues that Ecuadorians are concerned about.

Ecuador is running out of time before it, too, joins the rank of failed states in Latin America. These elections allow the country to correct its trajectory before it is too late.

ANALYSIS

THE ‘BLUE DRAGON’ STRATEGY

China’s “Blue Dragon” strategy seeks to upend Washington’s containment policy and breakout of strategic bottlenecks Professor Patrick Mendis: Synergia nalyst and a former American diplomat and military professor in the NATO and Indo-Pacific Commands Professor Antonina Luszczykiewicz: Assistant professor at the Jagiellonian University in Krakow, Poland.

This article was first published in the website of the Australian Institute of International Affairs on 4 Oct 2023.

T

o compete strategically with the United States (US) and undermine Washington’s Indo-Pacific policy, China has quietly been advancing its stealthy divide and conquer foreign policy agenda on four different but connected frontiers. The core of this comprehensive plan can be described as China’s “Blue Dragon” strategy, which is primarily anchored between two “unsinkable aircraft carriers,” Sri Lanka and Taiwan. The plan targets three bodies of water in the Indo-Pacific region and the major river systems in Southeast and South Asia originating from the Himalayas. In sum, this strategy seeks to upend Washington’s containment policy and breakout of strategic bottlenecks through leveraging national defence and development across four separate geographic frontiers.

For Washington, addressing the China challenge must begin by rethinking policies no longer suitable to the challenge at hand.

China’s philosophy to win a war without fighting a battle is illustrated by a range of carefully designed tactics from Taiwan to Sri Lanka. The United States’ traditional containment methods stemming from the Cold War cannot be used in the context of an increasingly more versatile and powerful China.

Despite Washington’s public denial of “containment” of China, the U.S. has continued its “global spy operations” and increased its defensive military posture in the Indo-Pacific. The Biden administration’s recent reengagement of relations with Beijing emerges from the tense diplomatic hiatus following the Sino-Russian “no limits” pact in February 2022 and the U.S. Airforce fighter jets downing of a suspected Chinese spy balloon in February 2023.

One question remains: can a traditional containment policy prove effective in countering China’s ambitious Blue Dragon strategy?

AN EMERGING GLOBAL POWER The first frontier in China’s Blue Dragon foreign policy strategy is related to territorial disputes over Taiwan and the Senkaku Islands (as known in Japan) in the East China Sea (ECS) and the Western Pacific Ocean. While continuing its operational air and sea ac-

THE ‘BLUE DRAGON’ STRATEGY

tivities encircling Taiwan and the cross-Strait region, China has been penetrating the ECS and beyond into the Western Pacific. The increasingly militaristic China has clearly been demonstrating its show of force to Taiwan, while simultaneously sending a purpose-driven message to the United States and Japan.

Armed with two aircraft carriers—the Liaoning and the Shandong—and a fleet of modern ships and aircraft, China’s unyielding pressure on Taiwan is closely tied to President Xi Jinping’s dedication to the “reunification” of the “breakaway province.” The Chinese government has explicitly stated that the “national reunification is the only way to avoid the risk of Taiwan being invaded and occupied again by foreign countries [and] to foil the attempts of external forces [i.e., the U.S.] to contain China.”

The constant Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Navy and Airforce exercises mark an escalation of Beijing’s “grey zone warfare” in the Taiwan Strait, the Senkaku Islands, and even in the vicinity of U.S. military bases in Okinawa and Guam. China’s Blue Dragon strategy includes “normalizing” Beijing’s territorial claims.

THE MAPS, SHIPS AND ARTIFICIAL ISLANDS Beijing’s second frontier is linked to its militarised artificial islands in the South China Sea (SCS). With the release of the “new standard” map of China in August 2023, Beijing has claimed a vast swath of contested waters and reefs, reinforcing its “nine-dash line” in the SCS. China’s neighbouring countries—including India, the Philippines, and Vietnam—were infuriated by the new map.

In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled in favour of the Philippines, rebuking China’s territorial claims, stating Beijing has “no legal basis” for “expansive claim to sovereignty over the waters.” The United States, the Philippines, and the global community at the time hoped that the landmark ruling would force Beijing to reconsider its claims and honour international law.

Since the ruling, China has continued its aggressive territorial claims with the publication of new maps, construction of artificial islands, and militarisation of the SCS. China’s escalating assertiveness has compelled the U.S. to thwart Beijing’s expansion efforts.

While the U.S. has failed to ratify the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, Washington continues

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in practice to operationalise its principles, maintaining that “all States [should] enjoy the freedoms of navigation . . . [and] lawful uses of the sea,” according to UN Articles 58 and 87.

SRI LANKA: THE CROWN JEWEL OF THE “WESTERN OCEAN” China’s third Blue Dragon frontier is associated with Sri Lanka, India, and the Indian Ocean—i.e., China’s “Western Ocean.” Beijing also continues to claim Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh as Chinese territory. These claims are carefully devised to keep India perpetually restless and drain its military and financial resources rather than finding a permanent solution to the border conflict.

The northern encirclement of India is also strategically linked to China’s “Buddhist diplomacy” with Sri Lanka and its surrounding Indian Ocean. Beijing’s goal is to transform the Indian Ocean into the “Western Ocean”—the name that can be traced back to ancient Chinese literature and poetry. This tale of China’s “peaceful rise” and historical relationships is showcased in Sri Lanka, China’s other “unsinkable aircraft carrier.” Sri Lanka is the “crown jewel” of the Belt and Road Initiative, as evidenced by Beijing’s construction of the Hambantota Port, the Colombo Lotus Tower, and other massive infrastructures with loans to the island.

Sri Lanka continues to play a pivotal role between China, India, and America (CIA). When Sri Lanka was declared bankrupt upon the default of its international loans and other financial obligations in May 2022, it was India that provided the needed loan of US$3.8 billion.

Out of concern for disclosing China’s “art of war” in secret dealings, Beijing has advocated a bilateral Sino-Sri Lanka solution and declined to involve a multilateral framework aimed at achieving a sustainable debt restructuring scheme.

Instead, China has announced the sending of the Shi Yan 6 PLA Navy ship to Sri Lanka in late October 2023, causing “concerns” in both New Delhi and Washington. In August 2022, India and the United States also expressed security concerns over Yuan Wang 5 ship’s berthing at the Hambantota Port, which is widely considered the next Chinese military base. U. .S Senator Chris Van Hollen recently reiterated in Colombo that Washington is committed to protecting Sri Lanka’s sovereignty “whether it comes to a free and open Indo-Pacific or debt restructuring” by providing IMF assistance and supporting the Sri Lanka Navy to safeguard the island’s territorial waters. Thus, the “CIA” competition over Sri Lanka continues.

THE ‘BLUE DRAGON’ STRATEGY

THE HIMALAYAS: FROM MEKONG TO BRAHMAPUTRA Beijing’s fourth frontier is related to the “geopolitics of water” in the Brahmaputra River basin in India and Bangladesh and the mighty Mekong River in the Southeast Asia.

China has been using the rivers in east, south, and southeast Asia, derived from their tributaries in the Tibetan Plateau, to produce hydroelectric power through a vast network of river dams. However, the control over the sources of transboundary rivers, like Brahmaputra and Mekong, has also given Beijing significant geopolitical and geo-economic leverage against the downstream countries. With the expansion of its dam system, China has manipulated the water level of cross-border rivers, disrupting agriculture, farming methods, and transportation networks throughout Asia.

Beijing might keep using the powerful “water card” of manipulation against downstream countries, forcing them into various compromises and concessions. In other words, China possesses a “water blackmail” tool to pressure lower riparian countries and “punish” them for policies and actions which do not correspond with Beijing’s will.

WASHINGTON’S DILEMMA: TO CONTAIN OR NOT TO CONTAIN? China’s philosophy to win a war without fighting a battle is illustrated by a range of carefully designed tactics from Taiwan to Sri Lanka. The United States’ traditional containment methods stemming from the Cold War cannot be used in the context of an increasingly more versatile and powerful China. Today’s world is more closely interconnected by political and corporate lobbying as well as technology and trade than it was during the Cold War period.

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Thus, it is nearly impossible to divide the world into pro-American and pro-China camps, especially when the US-Sino trade regimes are inexplicably intertwined and expanding.

Washington needs to keep ahead of China’s scientific and technological advancements and maintain U.S. security guarantees to its allies and like-minded democratic countries in the Indo-Pacific. However, American military cooperation—in the forms of Quad and AUKUS, or bilateral defence treaties with the Philippines and Vietnam—is not a panacea. The United States should treat its “small” allies and friends as partners in both military and economic realms. The Biden White House has now begun a “charm offensive” by courting the 18-nation Pacific Islands Forum aimed at curbing Chinese inroads in the South Pacific.

With its growing centralised power and autocratic mindset, Beijing might miscalculate by overestimating its military might and economic capacities with its ambitious plans augmented by “wolf warrior” diplomats.

After all, while America’s containment policy contributed in part to the downfall of the Soviet Union, the autocratic empire in Moscow collapsed under the weight of its own miscalculations and weaknesses of the centralised system.

Unlike democratic governing systems that have naturally embedded self-correcting mechanisms—such as regular elections, multi-party platforms, and the freedom of expression—autocratic and centralised systems tend to erupt from the top, sideways, and the bottom like a volcano. In this worldview, perhaps, China might be “its own worst enemy.” The United States would be wise to sustain a highly agile containment policy through active partnerships with friends and allies while allowing Beijing to make its own mistakes and miscalculations.

To learn more, r@synergiafoundation.in ; +91 80 4197 1000 https://www.synergiafoundation.org

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