Insights May Edition 2024

Dear Reader:

Greetings from the Synergia Foundation!

The highlight of this month was the firstever Joint Conclave organised by the Synergia Foundation with the Indian Army in Bangalore. We teamed up with the Southern Command of the Indian Army to bring together the Army, Academia, and Industry on a common platform for ideation.

The valuable insights on technological advancements in the military domain and the efforts on the part of the government to narrow the technological gap by encouraging homegrown innovations gleaned from this three-day conclave form the basis of many of the articles included in this issue. We hope our voice will reach policymakers, academia, and the industry to encourage seamless integration between all the entities. Remember, no nation can consider itself a true great power till its military and economic power stands on its own innovations and technological prowess.

To put the threats into perspective, we have an article on the post-war realities India must consider. Conflicts in all their avatars have become even more pervasive globally, making the domestic defence industry a critical element of national power.

In our security section, we have insights from two security analysts probing the terror threats to peninsular India and the revival of the IS (K)

network in South Asia. Despite some years of relative peace with no major terror attacks, India and its regional allies must not be lulled into complacency. If ever a reminder was needed, then we just had the horrific attack in Moscow by rank amateur terrorist recruits who, because of their nondescript appearances, could easily evade the tight security cordon of wartime Moscow and inflict such a painful reverse on the Russians.

Synergia’s resident maritime expert explains that as the largest maritime power in the Indian Ocean, India cannot shy away from assuming the role of a ‘net security provider’ in the region. Oman, a historic friend of India, features in our study of India’s neighbourhood.

In our geopolitical scan, we analyse the implications of a likely thaw in the U.S.-China tech cold war as indicated by the recent highlevel meetings and the Geneva talks. An amicable outcome will benefit the entire globe.

Our readers will be pleased that we have resumed our Book Review series and hope to bring to their attention interesting works that are topical and relevant to our times. We hope our esteemed readers will continue supporting us as we strive to further evidence-based research on strategic issues with global resonance.

Sincerely yours

Maj. Gen. Ajay Sah Chief Information Officer

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POST-COLD WAR REALITIES & INDIA

Conflicts in all their avatars have become even more pervasive globally, making the domestic defence industry a critical element of national power.

SYNERGISING ARMY, ACADEMIA AND INDUSTRY

TERROR THREAT IN SOUTHERN INDIA

The unprecedented growth in religious fundamentalism has compounded the security challenges in Peninsular India.

TERROR RAISES ITS HEAD AGAIN

IMPACT OF INDUSTRY 5.0 ON CONTEMPORARY CONFLICTS

The call for converging our core competencies is not so much an organisational experience; it is basically a compelling moral duty for us-DDG ADB Today, there is “Space for Defence”, and yes, there is “Defence for Space”.

ECONOMY

THE ECONOMICS OF ELECTIONS

The most expensive elections in the world throw up a plethora of issues, and the economic one is topping the list.

The Islamic State Sri Lanka Branch, reportedly resurfaced after the massive crackdown post-2019 Easter serial bomb blasts.

SPACE: THE NEW FRONTIER

In the modern world, you are not going anywhere unless you integrate space.

AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS IN FUTURE BATTLEFIELD

The future of conflict will be severe once we introduce autonomous capability.

THE RISE OF MACHINES!

The loss of human control and judgment in the use of lethal force by LAWs raises serious concern from the humanitarian, legal and ethical perspectives.

TECHNOLOGY IN LAST-MILE WARFARE

The information edge in a blurred battlefield can be a war-winning factor.

UAVS: MILITARY BEASTS OF BURDEN

Militaries are seeking a solution to their logistic nightmares in the rapidly evolving domain of UAVs.

A TECH DETENTE IN THE MAKING?

The US-China talks on AI and other issues have been widely welcomed in a tense geopolitical standoff.

SECURING THE INDO-PACIFIC

Why are we shy of calling ourselves a ‘net security provider’?

OMAN: REMAINING REGIONALLY RELEVANT

Oman has managed to retain its regional relevance through an adaptive foreign policy.

HUMAN RIGHTS & THE INDIAN CONSTITUTION

The Indian Constitution sets a framework for human rights, which has been elaborated and implemented through judicial interpretation.

RABIES: A DEADLY CONSEQUENCE OF AN INFECTED DOG BITE

The prevention of rabies starts with a basic understanding of disease transmission.

FOUR BATTLEGROUNDS: POWER IN THE AGE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE.

CIVIL-MILITARY FUSION AT ITS BEST

Synergia Foundation Bangalore teamed up with the Southern Command of the Indian Army to bring together the Army, Academia and Industry on a common platform for ideation.

The Indian Army’s Pune-based HQ Southern Command, the Dakshin Bharat Area Chennai, and Synergia Foundation jointly hosted a conclave in Bangalore from 7 to 9 May 2024 to bring together senior Indian Army officers, leading academia, strategic experts, industry, and startups.

The National Security Advisory Board of the Government of India and the National Security Council Secretariat of the Government of India was represented in the Conclave. Ambassador P S Raghavan, the National Security Advisory Board Chairman, delivered the keynote address.

Key speakers at the various sessions included Prof Gopal Jagdeesh, Department of Aerospace Engineering, IISC; Padmabushan and Padmashree Award winner Dr B N Suresh; Prof Suresh Sundaram, Associate Professor of Computer Science, NTU Singapore; and Arun Ramchandani, Executive Vice President & Managing Director L& T Defence.

Synergia has always focused on issues beyond the curve, including the security domain in all forms, essentially ideating about the requisite tools to navigate future complexities. The diversity of perspectives is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the immense potential of Indian startups, MSMEs, and other defence industries in contributing to the indigenous capability building of Indian armed forces. The recent initiatives by the armed forces towards further strengthening civil-military fusion are steps in the right direction in the era of self-reliance.

AIM AND SCOPE

The Conclave aimed to ideate and facilitate effective interventions to deepen civil-military fusion by identifying the challenges and opportunities.

While such a conclave can have a vast scope, for this event, two major objectives were narrowed down to: -

• Recognise the combined strength of all stakeholders, including Startups, MSMEs, large established defence industries, academia, R&D establishments, and Government, and identify impediments to deeper corroboration/integration.

• Craft a strategy on corroborative, mutually beneficial civil-military engagement facilitating expeditious self-reliance of Indian armed forces.

CONTEXT

There is an imperative need to leverage India’s technology capacity for the armed forces, particularly in relation to emerging technologies. The civil technology ecosystem is blessed with vast domain expertise, including innovative, cost-effective solutions that cater to the current and future armed forces’ requirements. Much of this expertise and capacity is based in Bangalore. Thus, pursuing a common vision of enduring and long-term strategic convergence of civil-military engagements is imperative. India needs indigenous solutions to the unique requirements of its armed forces. To achieve self-reliance in these forces, we must leverage all stakeholders’ collective strengths, wisdom, and capabilities.

CONDUCT

07 May’24. All stakeholders were represented at the first day’s round table conference, with the GOC, Dakshin Bharat Area, setting the stage for the free-flowing thoughts. The Army Commander, Southern Command, outlined broadly the user requirements. Mr. Tobby Simon, President of Synergia, moderated the discussions to enable Technology providers and users to share their perspectives.

08 & 09 May ‘24. The next two days, with eight sessions, covered a vast canvas of user requirements, capacity/capability enumeration by technology providers, academia, R&D establishments, and facilitating policies of the Karnataka state government.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Having deliberated in detail, considering the valuable recommendations of all the panellists and other participants, the following issues emerged:

• The immense potential of Indian startups needs to be unleashed by nurturing, mentoring, and providing finances to leverage their capacities.

• The defence ministry (user) further decentralises the institutionalised support system to enable a regular interface. Integration at regional levels enables rapid scaling up of defence industries.

• Think Tanks and academia will be dovetailed with Regional Technology Nodes (RTNs) to ensure continuity of the interface between users (Army) and providers (technology industries).

POST-COLD WAR REALITIES & INDIA

Conflicts in all their avatars have become even more pervasive globally, making the domestic defence industry a critical element of national power.

This article is based on the 1st Synergia Army conclave curated by P. S. Raghavan, Chairman NSAB on Future Conflicts: Crystal Gazing at Synergia Southern Star Army Academia Industry Interface.

At present, conflicts are everywhere, and their future is bleak. There is the war in Ukraine, now in its third year, the Gaza war and the US-China tensions. Each conflict has polarised the world along different axes and created unexpected responses.

Then, there are ongoing trade wars in the guise of national security exceptions. There is a technology divide; the U.S. and China are involved in something akin to a technology Cold War. Let us also not forget the rising contestations over energy transition and climate justice, energy security, and water security, which can become a major flashpoint for conflicts in the near future.

Globalisation seems fragmented beyond recall when the secretary general of NATO tells the global industry that, today, “freedom is more important than free trade, and principles are more important than profits.” That creates boundary conditions around globalisation that nobody expected in the post-Cold War era. Therefore, in present times, there is no need for a crystal ball to predict conflicts; they are not Black Swans but are actually Grey Rhinos (a highly probable, high-impact event that is obvious and visible, yet often ignored for various reasons until it’s too late).

However, before India can become a substantial defence producer and exporter, it has to deal with various cross currents, including meaningful participation by the private sector in defence, R&D, and manufacturing. We have not progressed at the pace at which we ought to progress.

COLLAPSE OF LIBERAL WORLD ORDER

Along with the lack of international order, we should also add multilateralism; multilateralism is on its final deathbed. United Nations and its assorted organisations, including the powerful Security Council, have been literally rendered useless. It would be hard to recollect when the UNSC has taken any meaningful decision on peace and security in the world! The UNSC recently passed a resolution demanding a ceasefire in Gaza. Look at what happened- nothing! The World Trade Organisation (WTO) dispute settlement mechanism has, for all purposes, collapsed; we are witnessing the collapse of similar international institutions. All this has come about because we as a global community have failed to recognise the realities of the post-Cold War situation and have not adjusted the international order accordingly.

With the end of the Cold War, the straitjacket of the division between the two blocks was removed, allowing countries to interact freely. Globalisation technologies,

particularly the ICT revolution, eased the movement of goods, ideas, money, and technologies worldwide. This enabled small and medium countries to leapfrog development stages and acquire a certain amount of economic freedom, military strength and regional influence. It instilled in countries the belief that if there are rules in this world order, we should also participate in the rulemaking, which should meet our national interests, aspirations and ambitions. So, besides the socalled great powers, a host of middle powers are competing to promote their own ambitions.

It is an ‘atomised world’ at the moment, leading to conflicts and the inability of established international institutions to deal with these conflicts. Of course, most nations will swear allegiance to a rules-based international order. But they interpret the rules of this international order as per their whims-they abide by rules that they want to abide by and ignore those they find uncomfortable to abide by. In the bargain, history has become a malleable substance; individual nations are shaping history per their interpretations and objectives. This is clearly illustrated in the narratives that justify the war in Ukraine and Gaza by the contestations. The ‘liberal international order’ has become a hollow term; virtually every country, moving from the right to the left, has elements of liberality in their political and economic structure. And so there is no point pointing fingers at others saying that you are more or less democratic- I am more democratic than you. The whole concept of democracy versus authoritarianism is a fake dichotomy today because that is not what is driving countries. What drives countries is their national interest, aspirations, and ambitions.

IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY

Technology and warfare have an intimate connection going way back into the history of warfare. Today, the dimensions of warfare are ever-expanding; wars are not fought just on land, sea, and air but also in the cyber domain and will be increasingly fought in the space domain. Therefore, nations need to integrate their technological and military capacities in all these domains.

Technologies are rapidly evolving, especially those that pertain to the military field—autonomous weapons, quantum information technologies, which are rev-

olutionising stealth technology, etc. We need to integrate these technologies intelligently into our country.

From the policymaking domain perspective, it is critical to facilitate the integration of technologies. First and foremost, there must be a comprehensive and rigorous review of the weapons and technologies being acquired and developed by potential adversaries so that India is in a position to respond to them.

While the acquired / indigenously developed technologies must meet our battlefield requirements, a mix of indigenisation would also be imperative. Of course, there will be ‘technology gaps’ that may be plugged through imports while concurrently launching and funding cutting-edge research for technology leadership. India cannot become a great power without developing a robust defence industry, and you cannot have a robust defence industry without a robust defence export policy.

WHERE DOES INDIA FIT?

India has done very well in the post-Cold War period because it has taken advantage of globalisation, its historical experiences, geography and strategic location, demography, economy, and democracy. While there may have been some challenges, they also offered opportunities that were taken advantage of. Napoleon once said, “To understand a country’s foreign policy, you have to understand its geography.” That holds true not only for foreign policy but also for national security policy and its economics.

Geography goes beyond physical location- it also encapsulates historical and civilisational inheritances. Few Indians understand that our location and our perspective of the world shape our geopolitics. Too often, we are willing to borrow concepts and templates from the West, but these concepts and views are about how the West looks at us rather than how we view them. This is something Indians must internalise in their research, articulation and political policymaking. India has two distinct dimensions to its neighbourhood- a continental heartland and the region to our north, including Central Asia, the Caspian up to the Black Sea region. India’s confrontation with China is actually on the continental heartland.

We tend to ignore the importance of peninsular India. Its importance in policymaking has only crept up in the last couple of decades. India’s maritime neighbourhood determines its Indo-Pacific initiatives, emphasising the Indian Ocean, trade, and energy supplies. This is a very important piece of maritime real estate, providing several strategic opportunities. Therefore, India’s strategies must encompass both the continental and maritime neighbourhood, which are important for Indian policymaking.

Like other middle powers, India also leverages all these advantages to maximise its role in rulemaking and power and protect against rules that negatively impact its interests. At the same time, we need to recognise that other powers are also trying to do the same to undermine our interests through a similar matrix of levers through covert and overt sanctions. The U.S. Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) is a good example. While the U.S. House of Representatives passed a legislative amendment exempting India from economic sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) for purchasing the S-400 missile defence system from Russia in 2018, this privilege can be withdrawn anytime. Recently, the U.S. State Department has again threatened sanctions if India goes ahead with its deal to operate the Chabahar port in Iran.

The media plays an important role in putting pressure on rival nations. During the build-up to the Indian parliamentary elections, the Western media was flooded with a litany of items about the undermining of democracy in India, authoritarianism, and human rights violations. It would be pertinent to note that while India may have developed an excellent network of relationships with the Western powers, it cannot totally ward off the lingering suspicion/ fear that while they like a strong India, they may not like a very strong India-not another China to challenge them.’

Therefore, there will be multiple impulses in international relations; the countries with which you have excellent relations and those with which you are advancing your interests in certain areas would concurrently be not so friendly to you in other areas. This is a dichotomy that one lives with; there are no blacks and whites in geopolitics anymore-only, multiple shades of grey. Therefore, we cannot talk about a congruence of interests with any country. India needs to keep this

in mind when dealing with the United States, Russia, China, and other countries of the world. And this is the reality of geopolitics in the post-Cold War world.

DEVELOPING A DEFENCE INDUSTRY

However, before India can become a substantial defence producer and exporter, it has to deal with various cross currents, including meaningful participation by the private sector in defence, R&D, and manufacturing. We have not progressed at the pace at which we ought to progress. While the DRDO has majorly contributed to our defence capabilities, there is a conflict of interest in DRDO being a technology developer and a validator of technologies created. Public sector units do not allow a level playing field between the private and public sectors. Therefore, there is a need for policy intervention with a holistic approach. A national defence strategy will provide the overarching framework from which will flow a national security strategy. The resources and goals must be matched, and the gaps in technology must be suitably plugged as per the hierarchy of a national security strategy and a national defence strategy.

India has a national security strategy, but many consider it diffused and excessively under wraps. We need to articulate publicly a strategy that encompasses the entire national security establishment and the general public. In their national security strategy, it is interesting to note that Americans have developed the powerful idea of integrated deterrence, which means combining military levers, economic levers, diplomacy, foreign assistance, and intelligence. The objective is to make clear to the adversary the red lines of national security that shall not be allowed to be crossed.

The engagement between academia, the research community, technology developers, and the armed forces must be elevated and taken to the next level, sometimes called civil-military fusion. Both the U.S. and the Chinese have achieved this to a great extent. There is no reason why India should hold back.

Admittedly, there are some structural and systemic issues, but these can be overcome. Peninsular India provides a huge opportunity in this direction. This landmass is adjacent to a maritime region and holds the cream of industry, academia and research. In fact, it is a good laboratory for developing the kind of civil-military fusion that India needs.

SYNERGISING ARMY, ACADEMIA AND INDUSTRY

The call for converging our core competencies is not so much an organisational experience; it is basically a compelling moral duty for us-DDG ADB

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

The Indian Army’s template for how capability development needs to take place over time is quite simple: It needs the latest world-beating technologies. It needs them as of yesterday and is willing to pay the minimum price for them.

As one of the fulfilling initiatives to ensure that the user somewhat gets integrated with the ecosystem, the Army Design Bureau was raised in 2016. However, there is a misconception in its name as right now, the ADB does not design technologies, although hopefully, it will be at some point of time in the future be part of the facilitation process for designing the Indian Army’s future technologies, like is being done by its counterpart in the Navy.

The Army Design Bureau is part of the Deputy Chief (Capability, Development and Sustenance) vertical of the Indian Army. It is divided into two groups. The Technology and Weapons Systems group is the one that has subject matter experts who are competent and understand the user’s capability needs with regard to various domains. Apart from the fighting arms represented in it, there is also an element of logistics services where technology can play an interface. The Technology and Weapon Systems group also releases the Technology Perspective Capability Roadmap to the industry so that there’s a general understanding of which direction the Army is taking. They’re also responsible for carrying out

Thanks to the ADB, the industry can access users more easily. The audience is available locally so that the startup can understand how the user envisages future battles and, thereafter, take a cue from there and give a solution to those requirements. Hand-holding specific to the industry is being done whenever needed.

the global scan of the technologies, which could qualify for joint ventures. The group also does a global scan of likely buyers of our domestic technologies and prospective collaborators in future endeavours. In addition, it also has the charter of monitoring closely various ongoing MCC projects.

The second part is the Technology Resource Centre. In colloquial terms, it could be called the front desk of the Army Design Bureau, which means that it interfaces with all external stakeholders, such as the industry, the DRDO, the Defence PSUs, etc.

Officers of the rank of Colonels look after facets like industry, academia, field formation, etc. They take input from the field army regarding their problem areas and concerns and where technology can be interfaced to address their operational and tactical issues. In addition, it is also responsible for intimately monitoring all the routes of induction like IDEX, the Army Tech-

nology Board, the R&D routes that are available to the command to carry out their projects and various other initiatives like the no-cost-low-commitment demonstration that is carried out for technology that is offered by the industry. In addition, this is also the group that takes on the responsibility of giving suggestions for pragmatic re-evaluation of all these routes.

ACTING AS A BRIDGE

Over time, the ADB has established a database of almost 1800 industrial entities dealing with defence technologies. A website for the Army Design Bureau has been created for outreach so that more people know about its existence. The ADB also promulgates the compendium of problem definition statements to invite responses that could become projects and tangible routes for inducting new capabilities in the near future.

Through this intimate interaction with the industry and other stakeholders, the ADB is fully aware of the pain points, both for the user and the other side of that equation, which is the person who will deliver that product to the Army.

Naturally, the industry is looking at expeditious handling of its responses to their proposals. The industry’s primary concern is funding and creating an ecosystem where business cases and interests can be taken care of. Academia, on the other hand, is looking at IPRs, the publication of papers, and technologies that could be taken up for R&D, and it is expecting due recognition for the efforts they are putting in.

One important stakeholder is the DRDO. DRDO continues to seek solutions for the Indian Army, which could have long-term implications for capability development. So, how should conflict between the DRDO and the private industry be dealt with?

The ADB also interacts with service headquarters to suggest the best possible solutions for organisational

restructuring, such as changing the mandate and charter. Says Brig Ravi Yadav, DDG, ADB, “We recommend evolutionary and incremental steps that could be undertaken so that in times to come, the next generation can be better integrated, and we can come up with solutions that are more applicable to the generations that follow.”

INTERFACE WITH STARTUPS

Thanks to the ADB, the industry can access users more easily. The audience is available locally so that the startup can understand how the user envisages future battles and, thereafter, take a cue from there and give a solution to those requirements. Hand-holding specific to the industry is being done whenever needed.

Field firing ranges are being made available for internal testing and evolution. Trips are organised to the forward area where internal evolution can be done and modifications made to suit the products on offer.

In addition, numerous pieces of equipment are given to the industry for testing and for carrying out the evolution of how their technologies would be retrofitted on that equipment. However, there are many challenges and concerns regarding national security that need to be considered.

Says Brig Ravi Yadav, “The Academia has to collaborate with the manufacturing partners so that the product can be converted from a prototype into a scalable commodity that can be inducted. And finally, the Servoce we need to change ourselves. We need to change our outlook or procedures. However, we need to change our organisational setup to align ourselves with this requirement. We need to change the qualifications of the officers that we are taking in and maybe start doing a key review to ensure the future of technology induction. The call for converging our core competencies is not so much an organisational experience; it is basically a compelling moral duty for us.”

EXPERT COMMENT

The pace of technological change is asymmetric. It’s so fast that we don’t even have time to understand how fast technology is changing.

What we perhaps need is technological revolution, not technological change. But for rigid organisations like the armed forces, it is very difficult to change within your own organization.

To meet the demands of a modern battlefield, militaries must take technology and apply it to the existing doctrines of war.

They must evaluate the risks, threats and opportunities that they face and demand those technologies which you can achieve the military objectives.

What is our immediate requirement, we need to procure immediately. But then, we should not lose track of long-term plans, long-term goals wherein we should invest money in developing new technology.

There are many pillars of technology development. First is academia which brings in scientific knowledge. Then there are national labs which use existing scientific knowledge developed by academia and probably partly by national labs, to develop into technology.

This technology is then picked up by industry, which does some engineering to increase efficiency. And then there are marketing experts and suppliers. At the bottom of the pyramid are the end users who have experiential knowledge.

We expect academia to go all the way from generating knowledge to delivering a product. Similarly, we expect national labs to go down the same path. Similarly, in industry, we want them to do R&D all the way to the

product. This is not a very good as it is not leveraging, each other’s strengths. Another way is to look at assembly line model, where, academia does from trial 1 to 3, and then they hand it over to national labs, who will go from, you know, 4 to 6, and then they’ll hand it over to industry, who will take it further.

While such a model too will have its own inefficiencies, the consortium mode is perhaps that will work the best; armed forces should play a leadership role in this case.

They should, nucleate a consortium through their R&D boards like Army Design Bureau (ADB) and so on. And then, they have to bring together academia, national labs and industry on a common platform.

The data model has leadership drawn not just from the armed forces but also from academia, industries, and so on.

All four (Armed Forces, academia, labs, industry) are actively involved in the beginning. Different sets of people may take different leadership roles at different stages.

In the beginning, when knowledge generation is needed, academia may take leadership. When developing a trade or technology, maybe industry will take a leader’s shape and form.

But it has to be a participative mode of working, where everyone’s voice is heard and valued.

What happens is when an armed forces gives us a project, it is like, here is the project, here’s the definition. you deliver me this, right? It should not be a boss driving a particular project.

Cross-pollination between all the four elements is not just a necessity, but a potential source of groundbreaking innovation. Imagine scientists spending a few months in forward areas, in armed forces and in industry, and similarly embedded personnel from armed forces and industry spending some time in academia during the development of technologies.

This is where the seeds of great ideas will be sown. When smaller groups ideate and debate, they can come up with ideas that can revolutionize technology development. This would help us to understand each other’s way of thinking, ways and culture. Many times, we fail to understand each other even when we speak the same language.

There is an immense pool of talent in academia that can cater for a number of technologies needed for military and civilian applications.

There would be over 10,000 faculty if we pool in the resources of all our institutions which is a significant number. Even if 10 per cent of them get involved in defence-related technologies, that is still a pool of thousand very good faculty. Each of those ideas makes sense for a particular project, for a particular kind of project, for a particular kind of technology development. And all the time, what we are trying to do is we are trying to

come up with one process that will fit in all this. One size does not fit. We need to think of classification of the kind of projects we do, classification of the kind of technologies that we develop and for different technology development, you know, different categories of technology development.

We need to have different strategies and different processes set up. And so that it happens most efficiently and elaborated on that in the previous slides.

R&D cannot be treated as regular procurement. The government has to develop an appetite for failure in research projects. Depending upon the category, there are certain technologies that are almost all already there. And then we make a product out of it.

We can expect almost a 75%, 80% kind of success rate. Whereas, if there is a technology that we do not understand at all, the success rate is going to be lower.

PROF MURTHY HSN

Professor and Head of Aerospace Engineering, IIT Madras

SYNERGIA COMMENTS

The current system has its own set of limitations, which can’t be undone overnight. But if the armed forces, academia, and the industry work together on a big goal of what we can envision ten years from now, we can achieve something.

“We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard,” Kennedy told the crowd at Rice University in Houston. The president promised to put a man on the moon before the end of the decade, and seven years later, he delivered with the Apollo 11 moon landing in 1969.

Similarly, if all the stakeholders, the industry, academia, government, armed forces, startups, etc., put aside their constraints and pull together, some ground can be gained. One, it will force us to work together, not

for today, but for ten years down the line. And we will learn to work together, whether the mission comes alive or not, that is secondary. The power of working together as a consortium, as a collective, rather than a buyer or supplier, a vendor, or a startup will be immense. We will learn to work together better in that process. Maybe something more magical will happen.

But we need a unifying force, a unifying call to action and a unifying responder yet, which will bring us all together on something which, like Oppenheimer, or like the man-on- man-on- the moon moment, can be world-changing. But even if it is not, it will be world changing in the way we will work together.

As an ecosystem, TiE has 30 chapters and 60 chapters worldwide. We are happy to play any role in catalysing the entire startup ecosystem.

IMPACT OF INDUSTRY 5.0 ON CONTEMPORARY CONFLICTS

Today, there is “Space for Defence”, and yes, there is “Defence for Space”.

WThis article is based on the 1st Synergia Army conclave curated by Professor Gopal Jagadeesh, Snr Prof Dept of Aerospace Engineering – IISC on Future Conflicts: Crystal Gazing at Synergia Southern Star Army Academia Industry Interface.

e live in a rapidly evolving world. The only way we can handle the conflict scenario in the next 50 years is by looking at it slightly differently. The emergence of Industry 5.0 in recent years has impacted the lives of people from all walks of life the world over. Because of the shift from “mass production” to “mass customisation” during the fifth industrial revolution, there has been a perceptible tectonic shift in how things get done.

While it took 35 million years for modern humans to evolve from Amoeba, it has not taken too long for the species to lord over Mother Earth. Almost all contemporary conflicts can be attributed to mankind’s inability to live in harmony with nature.

Advances in fundamental science that have led to innovative engineering solutions have resulted in the emergence of disruptive transdisciplinary technologies. Some innovations, such as cognitive autonomous flying systems, the emergence of explainable/non-explainable AI-driven technologies, robotic systems, next-generation explosives, and hypersonic systems, are now becoming a reality purely due to the emergence of Industry 5.0. Today, there is “Space for Defence”, and yes, there is “Defence for Space”.

Today, a multidisciplinary approach is necessary to manage the complex web of issues confronting us. Different disciplines, such as electromechanical systems, communication systems, human psychology, cognitive science, and neuropathology, are all merged. We are actually looking at industrial AI, trying to revolutionise and alter everybody’s life.

NEW AGE OF TECHNOLOGY-DRIVEN CONFLICTS

We are witnessing an epoch of technology-driven conflicts. Every individual anywhere on the Earth is transfixed by the digital era and is keen to gain its benefits, whatever their location or station. Not surprisingly, this obsession with technology changes mindsets and leads to conflicts as competition between individuals and states revolves around advanced technology. The ongoing technological cold war between China and the U.S. is an example that is impacting everyone globally. This technologically driven rivalry is a phenomenon that has never been seen before.

Science has not been able to prove that life exists on any planet other than Earth, and therefore, humankind must preserve itself and its planet from conflicts. Sadly, humans are altering the natural cycle of life on Earth with their ruthless pursuit of industrialisation and plundering of its natural resources. Consequently, cli-

mate change is no longer a joke; it is gathering momentum and could be the mother of all conflicts in the years to come. Earth’s environment is literally the source of life on the planet; 90 per cent of the food humans consume, the air they breathe, and the water that quenches their thirst also strengthens their immune system to keep their bodies stable.

We saw how our technological advancements failed to protect us from COVID-19. The pandemic was yet another classic example of how nations were not fully convinced that its spread was not an act of nature but a covert/overt hostile act perpetrated by rival power(s); accusations and counter-accusations flew thick and fast, and the conspiracy theories never really died down.

It follows that we will not have a future unless we respect our nature and cul ture. In this context, we need to wor ry about how changes in knowledge and information will alter the geo political equations.

Today, a multidisciplinary ap proach is necessary to manage the complex web of issues confront ing us. Different disciplines, such as electromechanical systems, commu nication systems, human psychology, cognitive science, and neuropathology, are all merged. We are actually looking at industrial AI, trying to revolutionise and alter everybody’s life.

Future wars will be faced by robots. Gone are the days when robotics was something we did in a small laboratory or an academic institution. Today, it is becoming mainstream.

CREATING SYNERGY

Advanced systems can be built in about 2 to 3 years. An ecosystem exists, and the only things lacking are the willingness and passion to join forces and, of course, the financial heft. While investors announce that a lot of money is available for good ideas, it must be visible on the ground.

Another factor is time. Unless you make a timely decision to initiate a project, there is no use in initiating something that has become obsolescent even before it has been created. It cannot take four to five years to sanction a project; it is high time academia, research, and practice come together to cut down these inordinately long lead times.

The gap between humans and machines is disappearing at a very rapid rate. Don’t be surprised if we have plenty of implants in our bodies in another 30 years. Your intelligence will be augmented by the intelligence that machines can provide.

No doubt machines are created by humans, but at some point in time, the amount of calculation they can do will simply be mind-boggling. You will be dependent on them in the years to come. So, you will have to embrace Industry 5.0 along with all these technologies.

Automation, robotics, and communication were actually used to eliminate one nuclear scientist sitting in a remote corner in Tehran and having a cup of coffee. Mossad remotely controlled this operation. Only seven bullets were fired to neutralise the intended victim, recognising him through facial recognition technology. None of this is fiction. The only way you will get a tool or a technology like this in the hands of a soldier is by focusing on fundamental science today. Therefore, fresh minds in the scientific establishment must come together to give soldiers the best in technology.

China placed an order about six months ago to a company that can produce 2000 robots, which would be deployed for logistic operations in the Shanghai airport. Maybe 40 years from now, robotic soldiers will constitute about 40 per cent of an army’s rank and file.

Space and Defence domains are specific areas where this synergy can be achieved. Premier institutions like IITs and IISC are ready to join hands with the military and the industry so that products for the armed forces can be conceived together. Such products require tireless efforts from scientists labouring in labs. IISC is able to complete a project for the U.S. Air Force in three months and the funding is transferred for the research well in advance with no questions asked. In India, we have an ecosystem where a project, even where the technical deliverables are clearly chalked out, continues to languish for 3 to 4 years before being approved for completion.

The Indian Army should start a programme on hypersonic missile development, which is a speciality of the IISC. Academic Institutes do not want to create weapons of mass destruction, but we support our nation’s right to defend itself with the best systems at its disposal. These are the realities of the modern-day world.

The scientific community is not just academics; they also build systems. In fact, IISC has exported fully developed systems to the United States, built biomedical systems, and is doing a great deal of research on shockwaves to heal frostbites. Such a device would be of immense benefit for our soldiers deployed in high-altitude areas, especially the Siachen glacier, where cold injuries are the biggest factor in the high rate of casualties. In this context, cross-functional teams would pay rich dividends.

Reportedly, the Army surrenders a large amount of funds allocated to it for its R&D budget. If IISC was approached, we could work together to create a permanent research lab finding technological solutions for the military’s myriad needs.

TERROR THREAT IN SOUTHERN INDIA

The unprecedented growth in religious fundamentalism has compounded the security challenges in Peninsular India.

This article is based on the 1st Synergia Army conclave curated by Ashit Mohan Prasad, Former DGP - Karnataka & Prof of Law M.S. Ramaiah University on Future Conflicts: Crystal Gazing at Synergia Southern Star Army Academia Industry Interface.

Aperceptible decline in terror-related incidents has taken place across the globe and more so in India over the last decade. The major reason attributed to this phenomenon is the dismantling of ISIS-a rabid, fundamentalist and extremist organisation that made a deadly combination of territory and terrorism as a great motivational factor to encourage mass migration from across the World.

A wide range of radicalised youth moved over to Syria to join the fight against non-Islamic forces with the ultimate aim of establishing the hallowed, idealistic Caliphate. However, the elimination of the ISIS chief and the subsequent displacement of its capacity/network from Syria and Iraq caused a major setback. Those who joined as warriors for the Jihadi cause returned disgusted, disillusioned and directionless.

The challenges in Peninsular India are unique as youth, for the first time, went towards the Caliphate of Baghdad, particularly from Kerala and the coastal belt of Western India, as against Northern India. The reasons, inter alia, are contacts with Gulf states, the influence of Wahabism, and the existence of home-grown radical outfits.

Terrorism can be sustained only with a continuous flow of funds to promote ideology, pay Individual terrorists, make logistic provisions for families of terrorists, travel arrangements, training, documents, arms & ammunition, etc. Combating terror financing is one of the most effective ways to control and check terrorism.

THE TERROR SCENE IN INDIA

Terrorism in India peaked in the last decade of the previous century and the first decade of the present millennium. There was a clear geographical divide, with Northern India bearing the brunt of major incidents with widespread casualties compared to Peninsular India. Southern India had relatively fewer incidents beginning from the serial blast cases in Coimbatore (1998), Bengaluru Serial Blasts(2008), IED explosions at Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru(2010), BJP State Headquarters, Bengaluru(2013), Church Street, Bengaluru(2014), Mysore Court Complex(2016). The Car Blast in Coimbatore (October 22, 2022), the aborted cylinder blast in an Auto Rickshaw in Mangalore (November 19, 2022) and the recent terror-related incident reported in Rameshwaram Café House, Bengaluru (March 1, 2024) had fewer casualties, unlike the incidents in North India. The Investigation subsequently uncovered a wide network of conspirators inspired by

the radical, extremist ideology. Even in North India, only two civilian fatalities occurred in the year 2022the ‘Lone Wolf’ attack in Amravati (Maharashtra) and Udaipur (Rajasthan) over an alleged blasphemous remark on a TV programme.

The security challenges in Peninsular India have been compounded by the unprecedented growth in fundamentalism, especially in the coastal areas, and a large diaspora settled in the Middle East over a long period. This has led to increased remittances often used for charity /educational purposes and establishing institutions imparting religious education. Consequently, the fundamentalist organisations started mobilising and indoctrinating youth to their fold, leading to far greater polarisation, sectarian killings and, in a few cases, migration to the conflict areas, including Syria and Iraq.

The NIA conducted search operations in several training centres (31) in Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Kerala, allegedly involved in the religious indoctrination of youth. The Popular Front of India (PFI), an agglomeration of three groups, namely National Democratic Front (Kerela), Karnataka Forum for Dignity (Karnataka) and Manitha Neethi Pasarai (T.N.), was banned by the Government of India for Unlawful Activities detrimental to National Security.

Although the Organization had footprints in several states (17), it was predominantly a Kerala-based outfit with involvement in cases of Murder, Assault, etc. Following the ban, PFI

members (45) arrested belonged to Kerela (19), Tamil Nadu(11), Karnataka(9) and others from Rajasthan Andhra Pradesh.

There were reports of Muslim youth (3) from Kerela getting neutralised in Syria wherein a group comprising twenty-one persons from Karnataka(9), T.N.&Telengana(5 each), Andhra-Pradesh(2) joined Daesh(ISIS).

The Government stated in Parliament that the sympathisers/supporters of Daesh arrested(68)across the country, a majority were from the South(50). Daesh in South India had allies in Jamatul Mujahideen Bangla Desh, especially in T.N. and Telangana. The Base Movement, an affiliate of Al-Qaeda, comprised Al-Ummah(banned) activists who created havoc by resorting to several bomb blasts in court complexes in several Southern States.

Multiple new Salafi outfits emerged, including Niche of Truth (Kerala), Peace Educational Foundation(Kerala), Jamiat-ul-Muflihaat (Hyderabad), and Discover Islam Education Trust(Bangalore).

Kerala Police filed a case against ‘The Peace Education Foundation’, which runs a chain of schools, after it came to adverse notice that some persons missing from the state worked there. Following the spread of extremist ideology, the cadres of PFI, Touheed Jamaat (T.N) and Kerala Nadvathul Mujahideen registered phenomenal growth.

ISIS claimed responsibility for the bomb blast in Coimbatore/ Mangalore, surprisingly, after a gap of six months, which they otherwise did immediately after the incident. It is a deliberate ploy to demonstrate their

ASHIT MOHAN PRASAD

Prof

of Law M.S. Ramaiah University & Former DGP – Karnataka

presence in South India, capitalise on the existing sympathisers, and enlist them as active members following the ban on PFI.

The Easter Bombings (April 21, 2019) orchestrated by the National Touheed Jamaat (NTJ) in Sri Lanka had a close ideological affinity with Touheed Jamaat (T.N), a breakaway faction of Sri Lanka Touheed Jamaat. The founder of NTJ, Zeehan Hashim, came to notice (July 2018) as a preacher during frequent visits to South India and maintaining contacts with his operatives, which led to the sharing of precise operational intelligence before the blast.

THE EXTERNAL INFLUENCE

The other aspect that sustains terrorism is recruitment, which earlier was done through religious institutions like Madrassas. However, the spread of the Internet and social media in various formats made outreach easier, faster, and more personalised in the virtual World. Its mastery over social media facilitated the production and spread of doctrinal messages easily accessible over the Internet, which encouraged remote radicalisation. In recent messages, ISIS leadership urged supporters not to come to areas of conflict but to fight their enemies at home.Pan-Islamist terrorist outfits are engaged in radicalising Muslim youth in India through online Jihadi propaganda and inciting them to launch ‘Lone Wolf Attacks’, which is evident from the arrest of their sympathisers.

Peninsular India witnessed the presence of several such terrorist outfits that are not of Indian origin, including Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), Al Badr, and Harkat-ul-Jihadi-e-Islami (HUJI). These groups collaborate/ coordinate with indigenous outfits such as Indian Mujahideen, Jam Iyyathul Ansarul Muslimeen (Kerela), Al–Ummah (Tamil Nadu). Muslim Fundamentalist Organizations including Tabliq Jamaat, Jamaat-e-Islami Hind, Popular Front of India (PFI),. Ahle Hadis and SIMI cadres also contributed to the growth of fundamentalist/extremist ideology.

The arrest of Mehdi Mehroor Biswas (Bengaluru, 2014) on charges of operating a Pro-IS Twitter handle indicated the extent of the influence of IS on gullible youths in India and the challenges faced by Lone Wolf syndrome. The cities in the South have been used as a refuge by malevolent terror elements to spread the network and recruit indoctrinated youth for anti-national activities.

The Coastal belt is also vulnerable to the entry of terrorists, as was revealed during the Mumbai Terror Attack (9/11), leading to multiple casualties at several locations. Under the Coastal Security Scheme, a multi-layered security structure has been implemented, compromising Marine Police, Coast Guard and the Navy. Several Police stations, jetties, and patrolling boats, including volunteers, were incorporated to strengthen the security apparatus and the intelligence framework.

THE ECONOMY OF TERROR

Terrorism can be sustained only with a continuous flow of funds to promote ideology, pay Individual terrorists, make logistic provisions for families of terrorists, travel arrangements, training, documents, arms& ammunition, etc. Combating terror financing is one of the most effective ways to control and check terrorism.

The sources for terrorist financing are state-sponsored from across the border, arms supply, extortion, robbery, donations, fake currency, narcotics, etc. The terror financing channels are cash couriers, credit/debit cards and money transfer schemes including Cryptocurrency of late.

The other aspect that sustains terrorism is recruitment, which earlier was done through religious institutions like Madrassas.

However, the spread of the Internet and social media in various formats made outreach easier, faster, and more personalised in the virtual World.

Its mastery over social media facilitated the production and spread of doctrinal messages easily accessible over the Internet, which encouraged remote radicalisation. In recent messages, ISIS leadership exhorted supporters not to come to areas of conflict but to fight their enemies at home.

Synergia Takeaways

Since the main challenge is on the Ideological front, it is essential to develop a counter-narrative to wean away the misguided youth from adopting the path of extremism, violence and alienation. This requires framing a strategy suitable to local requirements rather than a Pan Indian. To develop the counter ideology and to promote moderation, engagement with religious, educational and Infocom partners is necessary as the threat of extremism has shifted to cyberspace.

Choking terror financing has to be a continuous ongoing effort that would include monitoring transactions carried out in virtual currencies, breaking the backbone of illicit drugs and arms trafficking, besides ensuring that hawala transactions are stringently stopped.

As the recent Moscow Crocus City Hall showed, ISIS and other terror groups of their ilk may be down but not entirely out. Given an opportunity, they retain the ability to plan, recruit and launch spectacular and bloody attacks even in a high security city like Moscow in a country which is in war and would therefore, be in a high state of alert. India, cannot afford to lower its guard.

TERROR RAISES ITS HEAD AGAIN

The Islamic State Sri Lanka Branch, reportedly resurfaced after the massive crackdown post-2019 Easter serial bomb blasts.

This article is written by Prof. Rohan Gunaratna, author of ‘Sri Lanka’s Easter Sunday Massacre’ (This is adapted from an article published by the author in Ceylon Today, 22 May 24)

The Indian government pre-empted an Islamic State attack on Indian soil, targeting both Indian and foreign nationals. The would-be perpetrators – four Sri Lankan nationals – were apprehended by the Gujarat Police Anti-Terrorism Squad.

As per the report, a video was retrieved from the mobile phone of one Mohammad Nusrath, one of the four alleged conspirators. In this video, four men are standing in front of a black flag with an inscription in Arabic, making the Baya’ah (pledge) to join the proscribed terrorist organisation Islamic State (ISIS), follow the path shown by Abu Bakr Baghdadi and teach a lesson to the attackers who commit atrocities against the Muslim Community as well as to teach a lesson to Jews, Christians and members of BJP-RSS. Clearly, the threat has spread from Jews and Christians to Hindus.

THE ISKP SOUTH ASIAN NETWORK

It is well known that the ISKP leadership is located in Afghanistan and Pakistan and has members throughout South Asia and beyond. Recently, ISKP mounted attacks in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey, Iran and Moscow. ISKP targeted an Election rally in Pakistan’s Bajaur District on 30 July 2023, killing over 60 and wounding well over 100 people. ISKP also claimed three attacks in

India has developed significant capabilities to detect threats to India and other countries. Indian investigators in Tamil Nadu were the first to inform Sri Lanka of Zahran’s Group that mounted the Easter attack. Similarly, Indian investigators in Gujarat were the first to uncover another Sri Lankan cell planning to attack in India.

February 2024 in Baluchistan province targeting political leaders, which claimed 33 lives and injured 54 others. Similarly, on 3 January 2024, the Group carried out a double suicide bombing in Iran that killed 91 people and wounded at least 102 others.

Now, it appears that the ISKP leadership in Pakistan directed the terrorist operation in India. To mount the operation, the Sri Lankan cell of the ISKP was resourced with Rs 400,000 and provided three firearms and ammunition. The ISKP network in Gujarat and India provided support to the perpetrators.

Indian investigators revealed that the Sri Lankan cell used the electronic dead letter box method to communicate securely. A self-sent email containing the GR (grid reference) mentioning the latitude and longitude of a place was also found in Proton mail used by the above-mentioned accused. Further interrogation of the suspects revealed that they are active members of

the ‘Islamic State’ (IS) and are followers of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Their handler is a person named Abu Pakistani.

In February 2024, the perpetrators had come in contact with the IS handler Abu Pakistani. Upon his indoctrination, they became members of the IS. After taking the baya’ah, they had come to Ahmedabad in Gujarat at the behest of this Pakistani Handler Abu. They were to carry out a terrorist attack somewhere in India under the guidance and instructions passed by Abu Pakistani.

Abu Pakistani had paid them Rs 4,00,000 in Sri Lankan currency and made arrangements for the weapons and ammunition to be used in terrorist attacks. Abu Pakistani, the IS handler, had informed them that he would share photos of the weapons and the Grid Reference location as well as the Photos of the place where the weapons would be hidden on Proton Drive and Proton Mail.

These photos were recovered from the arrested suspects by the police. The Group was to retrieve the weapons and await further instructions.

THE SRI LANKAN CONNECTION

Sri Lankan Muslims have lived peacefully for 1,400 years until the infiltration of its religious space by Salafi Wahhabi, Jamaat-e-Islami and other foreign ideologies.

No Sri Lankan Sufi joined the Islamic State Branch that perpetrated the Easter Sunday attack. In the case of the four Sri Lankans arrested in Gujarat, they, too, were radicalised by these foreign ideologies. Those four recruited were radicalised in the Salafi Wahhabi mosques operating in Sri Lanka.

Sri Lankan authorities did not know of the threat until the Indian authorities arrested the Sri Lankan terrorist cell. Investigations carried out by the Sri Lankan authorities revealed that the alleged conspirators were petty traders or daily labourers, and three were engaged in the drug trade also. Nusrath held a visa for Pakistan, and two other members extensively travelled to India, especially to Mumbai and Chennai.

The four Sri Lankans were reportedly radicalised in Sri Lanka and recruited by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). They were exposed to ISKP propaganda through its mouthpiece, the Voice of Khurasan, an English language Magazine. In a recent issue, it ran an article that tried to inspire its followers to emulate Zahran, the mastermind of the Easter Sunday attack.

Upon the recommendation of Justice Janak de Silva’s Presidential Commission of Inquiry into the Easter Sunday attack, the Sri Lankan government proscribed organisations that promoted exclusivist and extremist ideas and ideologies.

They included the National Tawheed Jamaat (NTJ), Jamiatul Ansari Sunnatul Mohammadia (JASM), Sri Lanka Tawheed Jamaat (SLTJ), All Ceylon Tawheed Jamaat (ACTJ), Lanka Tawheed Jamaat (CTJ), and the United Tawheed Jamaat (UTJ) in April 2021. After Muslim radicals and politicians lobbied the government, it was decided to conditionally lift the ban imposed on five of 11 Islamic organisations in July 2023. The five organisations are JASM, SLTJ, ACTJ, CTJ and UTJ.

INDIAN COUNTER-TERROR OPERATIONS

India has developed significant capabilities to detect threats to India and other countries. Indian investigators in Tamil Nadu were the first to inform Sri Lanka of Zahran’s Group that mounted the Easter attack. Similarly, Indian investigators in Gujarat were the first to uncover another Sri Lankan cell planning to attack in India.

Deputy Superintendent of Police Shri Harsh Upadhyay of Anti-Terrorist Squad (ATS) Gujarat had received information of Sri Lankan terrorist cells arriving in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, on 18 or 19 May by flight or train to carry out the terrorist attack. A team from ATS Gujarat collected and analysed the booking manifests for flights and trains coming to Ahmedabad on 18 and 19 May to corroborate the information.

While checking the flight booking details, the tickets of the four Sri Lankan nationals were booked on one single PNR.

During the investigation, ATS Gujarat learned that the four Sri Lankan citizens had booked flight tickets from Colombo to Ahmedabad via Chennai. All four suspects were picked up from Ahmedabad Airport and brought to ATS Gujarat for further interrogation.

During the search, the proton mail led to the seizure of three pistols with ammunition and one black IS flag. From their markings, the weapons and the ammunition appeared to be fabricated in erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan.

PROFESSOR ROHAN GUNARATNA

Professor of Security Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore

ACKNOWLEDGING THE THREAT

The time is right for the Muslim leaders to accept that Muslim radicalisation is a security threat and help to address it. Unfortunately, cases were filled, disrupting the rehabilitation and community engagement efforts.

To ensure the future security of Sri Lanka is not compromised, Muslim leaders and the elite need to address religious radicalisation. Sadly, the Sri Lankan Muslim leadership has not acknowledged that there is community radicalisation.

It is because those with personal and political interests have promoted the idea that the Israeli MOSSAD, Indian RAW and Sri Lankan military and intelligence were behind the Easter attack.

Rather than spread conspiracy theories, five years after Sri Lanka’s Easter Sunday massacre, the best and the brightest Muslims should come together to address Muslim radicalisation.

Instead of exploiting a catastrophic attack, they should protect the religious space by saying ‘No’ to Salafi Wahhabism, Jamaat-e-Islami and other foreign ideologies that seek to replace local and traditional Islam.

Given the latest arrests of four Sri Lankan Muslims planning and preparing attacks in India, the Sri Lankan authorities and Muslim leaders should work together to mitigate the threat by launching rehabilitation and community engagement programmes.

Otherwise, like Tamil ethnic separatism, Muslim religious extremism will spread in Sri Lanka. Unfortunately, the Church did not do its best to engage the

Muslim leaders and advise them to prevent radicalisation by community engagement and rehabilitate those already radicalised either in custody or released.

Synergia Takeaways

The threat is very real. Rather than leaving it to the military, police, and intelligence, a partnership between the state and community should be built to address it. Leaders should rise to the occasion rather than exploit the Easter massacre.

Sri Lanka should build a generation of far-reaching leaders committed to bipartisanship in national security. Based on evidence collected from numerous interviews of those involved, if the Government and Muslim leaders do not work together, Sri Lanka will suffer from terrorism. Today, the challenge for governments is not only to bring the perpetrators to justice but also to deal with the ideology and counter the fake news.

With online falsehoods and manipulations emerging as the world’s number one threat, governments should develop robust legal and policy frameworks to investigate and prosecute those who deliberately fabricate and purposely disseminate misinformation and disinformation. To counter fake news and denial of truth, governments should build far-reaching capabilities to communicate effectively to the public.

The need of the hour is to build an educated citizenry and bipartisanship on national security, not to compromise national and strategic interests for political and personal gain!

SPACE: THE NEW FRONTIER

In the modern world, you are not going anywhere unless you integrate space.

WThis article is based on the 1st Synergia Army conclave curated by Padma Bhushan

Dr. B.N. Suresh – Chancellor, IIST & Padma Shri Awardee on Space as a new Frontier at Synergia Southern Star Army Academia Industry Interface.

hile space was rightly called the New Frontier for the past couple of years, it was a frontier into which only the public sector, specifically the ISRO (the Indian Space Research Organization), dared to venture. The private sector was represented thinly, maybe by one or two vendors. But suddenly, because of the government’s change in policy since 2018 and 2019, space has become a sector to watch out for. It has become attractive for the private sector because an ecosystem has been developed.

It is widely acknowledged globally that space has tremendous potential as a fourth frontier for helping a nation defend itself. The stress now is on the private sector, especially startups; today, the Indian space industry works with nearly 700 small, medium, and big industries.

A HOME-GROWN INDUSTRY

In the modern world, you are not going anywhere unless you integrate space. Advanced countries and larger economies want to move towards a space-based system. It is projected that by 2050, a space-based weapon system, including nuclear weapons, may be deployed. Technology development happens faster now because innovation is on an exponential curve. Cyber-attacks

Much work must be done to truly integrate space and defence, as much of it is only on paper today. What is important is to give a thrust on critical areas of policy capability and user requirements. How do we do that? You need to define a mechanism that the government of India authorises, and also the three service chiefs and the heads of the three major agencies are part of. There has to be a forum that meets regularly to debate, discuss and take ideas forward.

are of great concern in space operations, making quantum encryption technologies imperative. The Indian space industry has made tremendous strides in meeting the requirements of the civilian and military domain to a great extent through an indigenous effort.

However, for the last six decades or so, there has been a firewall between civilian and military programmes.

While India is not in the space race with any other space nation, international suppliers of space equipment make no difference between the two programmes and do not hesitate to embargo both when it meets their interest. This makes an indigenous space effort that much more critical for national security.

The Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) (an informal political understanding among states that seek to limit the proliferation of missiles and missile technology formed by the powerful G7 group in 1987) is a handy tool to block the sale of critical components even for peaceful space programmes. However, in the case of India, it has been a blessing in disguise because it forced ISRO to create a home-grown technology; today, our launch vehicles are over 95 per cent locally produced. India imports only a few crucial electronic components. To achieve self-sufficiency in these electronics, India will have to change its mindset and take bold decisions, which fortunately are being taken.

India can launch space vehicles in various orbitspolar, equatorial, low orbit or higher orbit. ISRO has mastered the technology of putting a satellite in any orbit today. In fact, India has its own cryogenic technology and is commercially exploiting its launch capability to launch payloads from all over the world at very competitive rates. India has had over 40 successful earth observation launches and 46 communications launches. India has launched payloads for all major nations, including the U.S., UK, Germany, Japan etc. After the war in Ukraine war, orders are coming for dedicated launches. ISRO has also mastered the technology of launching a swarm of satellites from one vehicle, the largest number being 102, the second nation after Russia to do so.

India is proud of its interplanetary mission, Chandrayan 3, which was the first mission to land on the lunar southern pole in the first shot.

From the point of view of the defence sector, earth observation satellites are relevant. Depending on whether you want eyes over land or oceans, high resolution or otherwise, an assortment of spacecraft is needed. India started with resolutions of one kilometre, and today, we have a resolution of 30 mm. These resolutions can even be further stepped up as required. In addition, India launches all kinds of weather and communications satellites. India is entirely self-sufficient in weather forecasting, and the data given to the Indian

meteorological department is interpreted in real-time. India has the institutions, the capability and the qualified manpower to put it into practice.

THE SPACE ECOSYSTEM

A launch base is being created in Tamil Nadu near Tuticorin. It will be used not only by ISRO but also by all startups who wish to conduct trials of their products. When the space industry was thrown open for the private sector in 2019, more than 120 startups came up in India within a short time. In a span of 3 to 4 years, around 2130 startups were functioning. In fact, a Hyderabad-based company launched a suborbital flight successfully and repeatedly. This is not to be taken lightly, as the space launch business is not easy; problems crop up at the last minute; you must rectify them and take them forward.

However, there are some mismatches. Startups always do not get what they want or fail to make progress. All stakeholders need to sit down with policymakers and convince them to create a single window clearance. President Kalam used to always say that the Indian space industry is like Europe, with a host of different agencies- ISRO, DRDO, CSIR etc. all working in silos. All agencies must join forces and pool their science, academic institutions and human resources towards a common objective. Synergy has to replace turf battles. When different labs/agencies shake hands, cross-fertilisation of ideas will take place. Sadly, there has been little progress in this collaboration between the scientific community, academia, R&D, IT Industry and the like. The gap between R&D, industry and academia must be bridged. Today, capable people are present in all segments of the space industry, and academia and R&D have to be conveyed what is required by the industry to work out a solution. Many projects have reached successful conclusions thanks to such a collaboration.

India must establish its own institutes on the lines of California Institute of Technology (Caltech) and Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), which are the real NASA

programmers doing all the work for U.S. interplanetary missions. Caltech designs and fabricates the latest hightech space platforms and payloads, which are regularly launched by NASA and even carried out in interplanetary missions.

In some ways, we see the same thing happening in India. Many small satellites that ISRO launches come from academic institutions. The academic institutions are able to comprehend the requirements, put them together, conduct rigorous ground tests and then launch in ISRO vehicles for free.

Academic institutions and startups must harness youthful brains to come up with new, innovative ideas and projects for space. Together, the space ecosystem should take such promising projects forward, including making available the capital to make them a reality.

ISRO’s headquarters in Bangalore could act as a technology hub to facilitate academia and startups. Bangalore is an aerospace centre in terms of education, industry, and manufacturing, with all space industry majors located there.

INTEGRATING SPACE AND DEFENCE

The Defence Space Agency represents the interests of all three services and would also help give a thrust to defence-related space technology and create a link between space institutions and the defence industry.

Space situational awareness is a big thing today, and there is a major centre in Bangalore to monitor space. Satellites play a major role in network-centric warfare.

Much work must be done to truly integrate space and defence, as much of it is only on paper today. What is important is to give a thrust on critical areas of policy capability and user requirements. How do we do that? You need to define a mechanism that the government of India authorises, and also the three service chiefs and the heads of the three major agencies are part of. There has to be a forum that meets regularly to debate, discuss and take ideas forward. What is lacking is policy limitation.

Today, India exports arms, ammunition, and missiles. We need to take the vision forward and script a

‘‘Ok, Everybody smile. Our recon satellite is passing by.”

national space strategy. While different requirements from the military and the civil domain may exist for such a strategy, a consensus can be reached. Agriculture, rural development, and metrological departments have different demands. Most of their requirements are already being worked on with space agencies, and there is an existing partnership with these departments. The key actions required are to enthuse our industries.

The space economy is rapidly growing—from 447 billion in 2023 to over 500 billion in 2023. Today, India has a minuscule piece of this huge pie, but it can grab 20 per cent of it by 2047 if we promote the industry and help it grow.

Synergia Takeaways

As India works on its space explorations and capabilities, the large presence of a dominant neighbour, China, remains. Can India keep pace with China’s growing prowess? China has made rapid advances by doubling its space assets for intelligence gathering and surveillance over the last four years. This has allowed it to monitor, track, and target the forces of other countries worldwide.

The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has reportedly not been sitting idle and has succeeded in indigenously developing critical technologies over almost seven decades of its existence—this ability to remain independent sets Indian research apart. The commercial success of the ISRO satellite launch vehicle and the lunar and Mars missions have established India as a potential space power. Authoritative sources claim that in some segments, the research conducted by ISRO is more advanced than the Chinese.

India has also expanded its reach by signing a new Space Situational Awareness (SSA) arrangement with the U.S. at the 2+2 ministerial dialogue in April last year. This further reinforces the pivotal role international cooperation plays in the longterm sustainability and safety of the outer space environment.

AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS IN FUTURE BATTLEFIELD

The future of conflict will be severe once we introduce autonomous capability.

This article is based on the 1st Synergia Army conclave curated by Professor Suresh Sundaram, Professor, IISC Bangalore & Associate Professor School of Computer Science and Engineering, NTU Singapore on AI Revolution in Future Battlefield at Synergia Southern Star Army Academia Industry Interface.

INTRODUCTION

There is a common perception that artificial intelligence will greatly empower higher commanders in decision-making. But that is not the only thing. The overarching influence of artificial intelligence is that it covers all the dimensions—that is, consciousness, knowledge, information, resources, and the mind.

China is reportedly leading the pack in actually deploying artificial intelligence on the battlefield. Chinese strategists are on record stating that artificial intelligence’s value for decision-making will cause future warfare to become a competition over which states can produce computers with the quickest computing capacity. Wartime commanders will be armed with supercomputers that will surpass humans’ decision-making capabilities. This is what they call ‘algorithmic warfare”. The same strategists predict that frontline combatants will be gradually phased out and replaced with intelligent swarms of drones that will give operational-level commanders complete control over the battle. They expect that over time, the tactical level of warfare will become a function of competition between robots and, therefore, in some ways, largely become a game.

The future of conflict will be severe once we introduce autonomous capability. There is a difference between automation and autonomy. Automation is something like the autopilot in a modern aircraft, which can help take off, climb to a particular altitude and maintain a bearing, all under the watchful eyes of a pilot. On the other hand, an autonomous system can make its own decisions based on the context to which it belongs. So, we are looking at autonomous machines, which could be underwater, ground, or aerial vehicles.

However, those of us who were brought up on a steady diet of the Terminator series of movies need no telling what happens when artificial intelligence goes terribly wrong. This is leading to a concept called AI assurance. In simple terms, it means an AI-enabled system is trustworthy to the extent that, when used correctly, it will do what it is supposed to do. When used correctly, it will not do what it is not supposed to, and humans can dependably use it correctly and control it.

The last one considers human-machine teaming. This teaming will be one of the most crucial issues we must address in defining the enduring interdependencies, responsibilities, and roles between machines and humans over the next decade.

Evolution of Warfare...

UNDERSTANDING AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS

The innovation in autonomous systems over the last decade is changing the world, just as electricity did when it was invented. Like electricity, anything can be electrified once you add intelligence to it!

The future of conflict will be severe once we introduce autonomous capability. There is a difference between automation and autonomy. Automation is something like the autopilot in a modern aircraft, which can help take off, climb to a particular altitude and maintain a bearing, all under the watchful eyes of a pilot. On the other hand, an autonomous system can make its own decisions based on the context to which it belongs. So, we are looking at autonomous machines, which could be underwater, ground, or aerial vehicles. They have some capability to make decisions in the context in which they operate, not like what is going to transform future warfare.

Future autonomous systems will change the control, command, communication and the computing system. Take, for example, surveillance and reconnaissance missions. These systems must ensure the authenticity of the data they collect, enabling commanders to make the correct decision. Information one can collect through any network or even from our friends and allies- the requirement is correct information. The second critical requirement is establishing the ground truth based on the best available information. It could be textual, sample images or video in a multi-domain space. The crux is how to interpret and interrelate them in bringing the information in a form that we can interpret to make the decision much faster. Humans find it difficult to operate in all kinds of environments, which may have to be done autonomously by AI.

A distributed decision-making process emerges in autonomous systems that need a communication link,

which is one of the key aspects when designing such a system. Autonomous systems are built for collective behaviour, cooperation, and collaboration among themselves. We can enable them from a broader perspective of the future warfare scenario.

Then, there are autonomous sensing systems, which have information represented in different forms, from visual to thermal. Visually, you may see a texture that you may not see in thermal, and thermally, a heat source may be shown, but you cannot determine if it is being emitted from a car engine. Then there is spectral sensing and radar; if you add textual information to all of them, it represents different information about the same object present in the situation and how they are interconnected in a hyperspace.

Multi-domain representation comes from how this information exchange occurs between various systems collaborating and collating so that they intuitively take the right decision to perform a task. This is something a human does without giving the action a second thought through what is termed in scientific language as dynamic sensing.

Autonomous systems should be able to look at the response they see or the force they obtain, and based on these inputs, they organise themselves. This kind of decision capability will play an important role in the future of warfare. There are both non-combat and combat applications of such a technology.

There are some common features needed for both non-combat and combat systems. First is the physical system itself, which will be used, while humans will focus on the information that will be fed to the autonomous system to make it work. Then is predictive planning- what time to start, reach a destination, etc. This includes mechanisms to look at future decisions that enable the safety and security of the system. Data analytics will play an important role in this. What

knowledge base does the autonomous system possess that will impact its decision-making process? Since any decision-making process is invariably confronted with uncertainties, real-time data analysis is going on all the time, and it has to be excellent rather than just a highend computing decision to arrive at the right decision instantly.

In an integrated battlespace, these systems cannot exist independently. They have to be together. It could be your battle tank, a fighter jet, a foot soldier, or even a sensing mechanism. Hence, there is a need for reliable and resilient networks.

But these resources are not infinite. Therefore, there is a challenge for the decision maker to understand which one to deploy, why, and when to deploy. These decisions are based on the information space based on surveillance and shared information from other platforms or mechanisms. It could be verbal, textual, or contextual to the situation. Awareness is more important. The commander may look at a larger picture being beamed from space, but it may not be real-time. Therefore, the information being supplied must be integrated from all sources, which an autonomous system with a cognitive domain can perform.

THE HUMAN HAND IN AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS

At the end of the day, the autonomous system has the resources and information but still has to decide. Humans need help to make the correct decision because the decision has to be reactive and consider the counter-action initiated by the enemy. The environment in which the system is operating will not be static but very dynamic. So, the system has to evolve a strategy based on uncertain information like intake data, physical information, etc. Here again, the cognitive space is very important. Also, in decisions affecting human lives, psychological resources are critical. This is the reason why human-machine teaming is becoming so important. Admittedly, the machine is very good in skill, speed and accuracy- a surveillance camera can keep an eye on an area 24 x 7 without rest, food or break.

Another important aspect of military autonomous systems is what we call “explainability.” Can it explain the action it is performing in a space evolving very fast? And can it learn while on the go? This would require a reliable evaluation system.

Reward-based learning (RL) helps to minimise perception uncertainty, which is an important aspect. This is a key area where we are moving towards distributed RL because uncertainty has to be minimised.

Then comes the actual engagement of targets by autonomous systems. They need to identify the primary target, which is to be neutralised. Now, the targets will not always be neutralised by a single entity; it may be by two or even more. They may have to act simultaneously.

Sometimes, they may have to act one after another. For example, a bunker buster weapon may have to hit the bunker sequentially to create the damage. In certain cases, the systems may have to act simultaneously -how will this decision be made with limited information and no communication? These are going to be the challenges for autonomous systems in future warfare.

CONCLUSION

Resiliency and multiple perception are some scenarios where AI is helping future warfare. Another important aspect concerning these systems is how scalable they are from a large perspective—do they have consensus in cooperation when they have to go en masse to neutralise the enemy? How can they do it in real-time?

Most autonomous systems today are at the early ‘narrow intelligence’ stage. They can perform tasks that humans cannot do, but they can, under certain circumstances, understand multi-domain data representation, play games like chess, and win against humans. Or they can do a mundane task repeatedly with high speed and high accuracy. This is general intelligence.

But warfare is full of uncertain data, and the fuel for autonomous machines is data when we do not know what, how, or how much the enemy is going to deploy. Everything is uncertain and unknown in a combat environment. For this reason, human-machine teaming plays a very important role.

To reduce uncertainty, machines can be taught using a scenario-building mechanism to learn from synthetic to real. The skill lies in transforming information from the synthetic world and translating that information to the real world. You will have to train the autonomous systems in various possibilities of situations it is likely to face by creating numerous scenarios. These scenarios embed data on what will happen in an uncertain environment.

Once distributed AI comes into the picture, it can plan, solve, think, comprehend any complex decision-making task, and learn quickly in real time. Distributed AI is critical when autonomous systems operate in swarms and ensure survivability in a hostile conflict environment because, as we see in Ukraine, both sides are knocking drones from the sky as soon as they become airborne.

The final stage would be ‘superintelligence.’ A few years back, we never thought of how large a language model would impact, starting from education to what we are today. Now, we are building large, efficient models. As soon as a large vision model can interpret and other AI visual cortexes mature, which provides information in a hyperspace, things may change rapidly, even in two to three years. So, we are not far away to see some superintelligence, at least in certain scenarios.

THE RISE OF MACHINES!

The loss of human control and judgment in the use of lethal force by LAWs raises serious concern from the humanitarian, legal and ethical perspectives.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

In a 2015 International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence held in Buenos Aires, over 1000 experts (including Physicist Stephen Hawking and Elon Musk) signed a letter with a grim warning, claiming that the technology could trigger a ‘third revolution in warfare” after gunpowder and the nuclear bomb.

The experts claimed that lethal autonomous weapons (LAW) could be deployable within a few years. The open letter claimed that “autonomous weapons select and engage targets without human intervention,” and was ideal for tasks such as “assassinations, destabilising nations, subduing populations and selectively killing a particular ethnic group.” Anticipating the rise of machines, the experts warned that it was only a matter of time before “intelligence broke free of biological bonds.”

Professor Hawking is on record warning that the development of AI could mean the end of the human race. Speaking to the BBC in 2014, he said, “Once humans develop artificial intelligence, it would take off on its own and re-design itself at an ever-increasing rate […] Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn’t compete and would be superseded.”

“A huge part of the issue is not the technology itself; it’s how militaries use that technology,” says Zak

Advancements in AI and cyberspace have raised concerns about national security as a growing number of states acquire these technologies in an attempt to enhance their military capabilities. Leading military powers are researching AI applications for command and control, intelligence collection, logistics, and semiautonomous weapons platforms. The advent of AI-enabled offensive weapon systems entered the cyber domain when the U.S. entered the fifth domain of cyberspace, and NATO recognised it as an operational domain in 2016.

Kallenborn, a security analyst at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC.

THE EVOLUTION OF LAWS

A 2022 analysis revealed a lack of consensus on the definition of lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWs), with varying definitions from countries and organisations like NATO.

The definitions vary, with some claiming LAWs can understand higher-level intent. In contrast, others argue for autonomous learning and self-awareness, which

most researchers believe is far beyond what’s possible with AI today. Slaughterbots, also called ‘lethal autonomous weapons systems’ or ‘killer robots’, are weapons that use Artificial Intelligence (AI) to identify, select, and kill human targets without human intervention.

This desire to develop ever-increasing levels of autonomy in military weapons technology is by no means a modern trend but has historical roots.

Scholars and experts in the field of cybernetics and AI in the 1950s and 1960s flagged important concerns regarding increased machine autonomy in military operations.

With machine learning and computer processing power making great strides, integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) into military systems is likely to accelerate the shift toward increased and more complex forms of autonomy shortly but surely.

Most cases involve an AI systems component that evaluates sensor data and produces an indicator to the controller, then stores that data for future reference.

Ongoing U.S. Department of Defence programmes have envisioned AI playing a crucial role in the computer’s accelerated identification and tracking of targets, leaving the human with a limited set of possible courses of action for a potentially lethal decision.

As per data available in the public domain, AI focuses on designing intelligent agents that decipher their environment and take actions to improve their chances of success on the battleground.

AI automates learning, decision-making, and problem-solving activities, aiding in fields like planning, learning, natural language processing, robotics, computer vision, speech recognition, and problem-solving. Research has documented the broader current and po-

tential uses of AI within the military, which includes helping, even enabling, cyberspace operations; logistics planning; intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR); and data analysis.

AI technologies have rapidly intruded into various domains, including governance systems, buildings, transportation, and grid systems. These technologies collect large amounts of significant data, making them useful in cybersecurity.

However, the malicious use of AI is reshaping the threat landscape, implicating physical, digital, and political security threats. This could lead to the amplification of existing threats, the launch of new ones, and changes in threat characteristics, particularly in cyberspace, due to its easy, inexpensive, and secretive nature.

Cyberspace, the fifth warfare domain, uses AI for autonomous military systems, enhancing covert offensive capabilities. This AI arms race, supported by multi-billion-dollar investments, is escalating tensions between nations.

AI-ASSISTED WEAPONS

Advancements in AI and cyberspace have raised concerns about national security as a growing number of states acquire these technologies in an attempt to enhance their military capabilities.

Leading military powers are researching AI applications for command and control, intelligence collection, logistics, and semi-autonomous weapons platforms.

The advent of AI-enabled offensive weapon systems entered the cyber domain when the US entered the fifth domain of cyberspace, and NATO recognised it as an operational domain in 2016. States are integrating unmanned platforms into drone swarms, with Israel being the first to deploy a swarm in combat. Drone swarms

communicate and collaborate, forming a single weapons platform. Today, countries are developing drone swarms for various applications, including anti-submarine warfare, anti-aircraft warfare, and anti-terrorist operations.

AI weapons using machine learning process stimuli are becoming more complex, but their data dependence makes them brittle.

As autonomous weapons increase, arms control advocates fear a higher likelihood of catastrophic errors despite some states adopting robust verification programs.

However, many militaries value autonomous weapons for their speed, alleged reduced error rate, and potential for defending against drone swarms. Advocates of the cause argue that AI applications can improve aiming and reduce collateral harm, making them a moral imperative.

AI AND CYBERWARFARE

AI’s potential to enhance cyber warfare capabilities has raised concerns among policymakers and academicians. Rapid advances in AI and increasing military autonomy could amplify future cyberattacks.

Cyberattacks have recently become more common and sophisticated, targeting governments, critical infrastructure, private corporations, and non-profit organisations. Malicious actors are constantly developing new techniques and utilising AI to create more destructive forms of attack. Adapting AI capabilities to existing cyber warfare tools could enhance their effectiveness and efficiency.

As expected, this has given rise to AI-assisted cyber defence, too. AI-enabled cyber technology can be used for both offensive and defensive purposes, with future cyber-attackers likely to use it for advanced and complex threats. AI’s ability to learn and adapt will ensure highly customised, human-impersonating attacks, making future attacks more penetrative.

Therefore, analysing offensive AI in cyberspace is crucial for understanding AI-enabled cyber threats. AI-enabled cyber defence mechanisms are becoming increasingly important due to the development and employment of AI-powered weapons.

Active Cyber Defence (ACD) is gaining prominence among policymakers and practitioners as it effectively and quickly responds to cyber offences. The ethical and legal implications of autonomous weapons systems (AWS) gained prominence in 2012 when the U.S. Department of Defence published guidelines for their development and use.

Relying only on passive defence to protect cyber assets from a range of threats is inadequate. It is vital to implement agile cyber defences and responses that can keep pace with network activity, pre-empting attacks

before they are operationalised. Governments and companies have started considering the ACD method more frequently for strategic benefits.

A GLOBAL TREND

According to the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), a growing number of countries, including the U.S., the UK, China, and Russia, either develop, produce, or use military systems of varying degrees of autonomy, including lethal ones.

Reportedly, Israel is one of the front runners in the race for AI-assisted weapons. Media reports indicate that in the ongoing war in Gaza, the Israeli Defence Forces may be resorting to AI for target selection and engagements. Israel has been developing an AI-based system called Habsora (the Gospel) to select targets rapidly.

The Gospel ensures targeting recommendations are provided to researchers seeking to align the machine’s suggestions with a human-driven identification process. Aviv Kochavi, who served as the head of the IDF until January, has been cited saying that in Israel’s 11day war with Hamas in May 2021, it generated 100 targets a day. “To put that into perspective, in the past, we would produce 50 targets in Gaza per year. Now, this machine produces 100 targets daily, with 50 per cent being attacked.”

However, the systems’ implementation is still in its infancy and ranges from simple and brittle to robust and versatile. Resilient systems should be able to manage the intricacies of a battlespace with multiple dimensions.

Chinese strategists claim that artificial intelligence’s value for decision-making will cause future warfare to become a competition over which states can produce computers with the quickest computing capacity.

They claim that wartime commanders will be armed with supercomputers that will come to surpass the decision-making capabilities of the humans directing them, what the Chinese call ‘Algorithmic Warfare.’ The same strategists predict that frontline combatants will be gradually phased out and replaced with intelligent swarms of drones that will give operational-level commanders complete control over the battlefield.

They expect over time that the tactical level of warfare will largely become a function of competition between robots and, therefore, in some ways, largely become a game.

THE PERILS OF LAWS

The AI system represents and operates on the world along a logic that accepts that it cannot comprise and calculate the ‘real world’. Hence, this results in abstraction, truncating, and rendering, which involves “approximation, biases, errors, fallacies, and vulnerabilities.” With AI, “information flows are diffracted,

distorted and lost,” casting the world in statistical approximations and acting or suggesting actions upon this interpretation of the word.

The inability of Slaughterbots to distinguish between legitimate and illegitimate targets is why we do not see significant militaries using them.

This field is still in its infancy and is heavily influenced by policy decisions that must be made regarding the precise definition of a lawful military target.

Stopping research into autonomous weapons today will only stop responsible governments from developing systems that can distinguish between legitimate military targets and noncombatants and safeguard innocent lives, not stop “slaughterbots” that kill without mercy.

However, those of us who were brought up on a steady diet of Terminator Movies need no telling what happens when AI goes terribly wrong. This leads to the phrase AI Assurance-An AI-enabled system is trustworthy to the extent that, when used correctly, it will do what it is supposed to do.

Two, when used correctly, it will not do what it is not supposed to do. And three, humans can dependably use it correctly. The last one brings into consideration human-machine teaming.

This theme will be one of the most crucial things we must work through in defining those interdependencies, responsibilities, and roles between machines and humans over the next decade.

With a comparatively flat human capability development, the error rate in life-and-death decisions is constant.

However, machine accuracy has improved exponentially; experts talk of a potential to surpass human accuracy in combat-kill decisions by AI-assisted weapons.

Ethical questions of keeping humans in control to minimise civilian deaths are being raised. In the next 30 to 50 years, semi-autonomous systems will likely continue, with automated portions becoming more capable and human-machine interfaces improving, allowing human operators to increase control over multiple systems while decreasing the level of detail they have to control directly.

As per the ICRC, using autonomous weapons systems entails risks due to difficulties anticipating and limiting their effects. This loss of human control and judgment in the use of lethal force raises serious concern from the humanitarian, legal and ethical perspectives.

The more challenging and open an environment, the more complex and sophisticated an AI system might need to be employed in such an environment. The more complex and opaque a system is, the less predictable or understandable its decision-relevant actions are. This “performance-understandability trade-off poses a central paradox of AI” in weapons systems and complicates matters.

Human capability development remains stagnant, but machine accuracy is enhancing, potentially surpassing human accuracy. This leads to more complexities, which could be combated by early investment in cognitive warfare analysis, AI-powered predictive maintenance, and autonomous target recognition.

Some autonomous weapons must be bannedspecifically, those which target humans, which are highly unpredictable, or which function beyond meaningful human control. And even those that can be meaningfully controlled by humans must be regulated.

Synergia Takeaways

TECHNOLOGY IN LAST-MILE WARFARE

The information edge in a blurred battlefield can be a war-winning factor.

This article is based on the 1st Synergia Army conclave curated by Dr. Abhay Aradhya CEO, Vaydyn on Leveraging Startups for Future Battle at Synergia Southern Star Army Academia Industry Interface.

In the dynamic landscape of modern warfare, the quest for tactical superiority remains paramount, driving continual evolution in military strategies and technologies. From the ancient phalanx formations to the mechanized warfare of the 20th century, the importance of information in achieving success on the battlefield has been a consistent theme.

Today’s battlefield is characterized by its complexity and ambiguity. Frontlines are often blurred, and engagements occur in diverse environments, including urban areas where civilian populations are at risk. In this context, “last-mile warfare” has emerged, highlighting the critical nature of close-quarter engagements where split-second decisions can have life-or-death consequences.

THE INFORMATION EDGE

Information has become a decisive force multiplier in this challenging operational environment. The ability to gain real-time insights, anticipate enemy movements, and comprehend the immediate surroundings is essential for mission success and minimizing risks. Traditional intelligence-gathering methods, such as human patrols and drones, are no longer sufficient for meeting the demands of fast-paced, information-cen-

Advancements in technology have transformed the modern battlefield into a more dynamic and lethal environment while paradoxically creating the potential for reduced collateral damage through greater precision targeting.

tric conflicts. Recent advancements in technology are revolutionizing how soldiers gather information on the battlefield. Soldiers are equipped with a network of highly portable, cutting-edge tools that serve as their invisible eyes and ears, providing a cognitive advantage and enhancing situational awareness.

These tools offer real-time data on enemy positions, potential threats, and terrain features, empowering soldiers to make informed decisions and increasing the likelihood of mission success. One particularly promising area of development is nano drones, miniaturized unmanned aerial vehicles employed for tactical reconnaissance and intelligence gathering in close-quarter combat scenarios.

Nano drones hold immense potential to revolutionize the modern battlefield by providing offensive, defensive, and reconnaissance advantages to soldiers, helping them outsmart the enemy in last-mile warfare.

Building on this information advantage, nano drones transform close-quarter combat operations. Their small size and agility allow them to discreetly navigate tight spaces and cluttered environments, of-

fering a 360-degree view that would be impossible for traditional reconnaissance methods. Due to their size, these drones can approach the enemy locations undetected and help gain valuable information regarding the enemy’s capabilities, movements, and potential vulnerabilities. The nano drones can also secure convoys from potential threats and provide early warning of enemy activity. This allows soldiers to extend their field of view, helping them to spot hidden threats and avoid ambushes.

Furthermore, nano drones act as force multipliers during close combat operations. Imagine a soldier deploying nano drones before approaching a suspected enemy stronghold. These tiny drones can infiltrate the building, providing a real-time view of the interior layout, pinpointing enemy positions, and identifying potential threats. This vital information allows soldiers to formulate safer, more effective plans, minimizing casualties during close-quarter engagements.

Their unique capabilities make them ideal for various tasks critical for success in last-mile warfare. For instance, during close-quarter combat situations within buildings, their ability to squeeze through tight spaces and reach areas inaccessible to human teams makes them invaluable. With a tactical payload, these nano drones can clear rooms before entry. Equipped with non-lethal or lethal payloads, they can fly through windows or doorways; they can be used to flush out enemies or subdue them before engagement. Unlike traditional airstrikes or explosive devices, nano drones can target specific enemy combatants or fortifications with a high degree of accuracy, reducing the risk of civilian casualties and minimizing collateral damage.

HARNESSING AI

Advancements in technology have transformed the modern battlefield into a more dynamic and lethal environment while paradoxically creating the potential for reduced collateral damage through greater precision targeting.

These technologies include miniaturized drones, automated weapons, battle strategy gaming using AI, real-time personal monitoring systems, soldier health monitors, information securitization using AI, exoskeletons to enhance soldier capabilities, vision-assisting systems, and AI-assisted technology for soldier perception en-

Even in modern times, the fog of war makes the tactical battlefield a blurred landscape where

SYNERGIA COMMENTS

As per the Economic Times (17 Sep 2023), Indian defence startup IDR has developed three variants of nano drones, including a ‘Kamikaze’ UAV, which can be used in anti-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations. The drones, weighing approximately 200 grams and embedded with AI, were developed by a team of engineers from IIT Roorkee. They can last up to 30 minutes and reach speeds of 80 kmph.

Similarly, IZI, a leading consumer electronics brand and a trailblazer in drone technology, has set a new standard with the launch of the IZI MINI X drone, India’s first 4K nano drone weighing a mere 249 grams. The Mini X series introduces two versatile versions, Standalone and Fly More Combo.

Chennai-based drone startup Garuda Aerospace has launched a nano drone, Droni, for consumer photography and cinematography. Currently sold on the e-commerce site Amazon, Droni is a small foldable quadcopter weighing 250 gm. While being commercially exploited, the drone also has military applications and is being acquired by army units through their regimental funds.

Last year, in line with its vision to be a “technologically superior force” to fight future wars with indigenous solutions, the Indian Army launched its ambitious package of 49 schemes worth ₹ 7,600 crore under the fourth round of emergency procurement. Nano drones form an important component of this package.

information dominance is paramount for success, especially in last-mile engagements where time can spell the difference between life and death. Advancements in miniaturization technologies like nano drones are ushering in a new era of battlefield intelligence.

These technologies provide soldiers with unparalleled situational awareness, allowing them to see what lies beyond the next corner and anticipate enemy movements. They also provide an offensive option in close combat operations, giving them an asymmetric advantage over the enemy.

The integration of such modern technologies is fundamentally reshaping last-mile warfare.

It enhances the effectiveness of military operations while minimizing civilian casualties, enabling soldiers to navigate and dominate complex and challenging environments with greater efficiency and precision.

DR. ABHAY ARADHYA

CEO, Vaydyn

UAVS: MILITARY BEASTS OF BURDEN

Militaries are seeking a solution to their logistic nightmares in the rapidly evolving domain of UAVs.

This article is based on the 1st Synergia Army conclave curated by Ansar H. Lone, Cofounder and CEO, COMRADO Aerospace, Program Director- UAV, ARTPARK, IISc on Leveraging Startups for Future Battle at Synergia Southern Star Army Academia Industry Interface.

India has a coastline of 7500 kilometres and shares a land border of 15200 kilometres with its neighbours. The terrestrial border is unique in that it spans diverse and harsh environments- from the salt flats of Kutch to the lofty and freezing Himalayan glaciers and tops and the hot and dry Thar desert to the dense and moist forests of the Northeast.

Maintaining vigilant border surveillance under these circumstances is a challenging task that can be achieved only by putting boots on the ground, irrespective of the harsh terrain and climatic conditions. While the Indian Armed Forces can stoically face these physical hardships, they need to be logistically supported in far-flung remote locations connected by mostly poor or near-absent communication means. Continuous and uninterrupted transport of supplies is of immense importance.

Since independence, and even before that, the Indian Army has fought and lived over terrain that few can bear. For their sustenance, various logistics have been tried and tested, some successfully and others not that effectively. From human porters to camels to mules, to jeeps/ trucks/ all-terrain vehicles and snow scooters in

In a heavily contested air defence environment, as existing over the Ukrainian battlespace, movement of aerial platforms has been virtually ruled out unless they fly very high above the reach of most surface-to-air missile systems. However, the skies are constantly buzzing with drones crisscrossing the battlefield carrying surveillance payloads, small bombs, and, when needed, some critical supplies. In situations like these, UAVs, which are comparatively smaller in size, can maintain the supply chain by their reduced detectability on RADAR and satellite imagery.

glaciated terrain, no modern or ancient means of transportation has been ignored in seeking the most optimum means of keeping our soldiers supplied with the essentials. Helicopters and parachute drops from aircraft were perfected during World War II and continue to be used regularly by the Indian armed forces despite the prohibitive cost of the mode.

Helicopters have been found most suitable; in fact, in the Siachen Glacier, the bulk of the supplies are moved on helicopters as the terrain inhibits ground movement, but by small parties carrying very meagre

loads. However, it is not economical to use helicopters for small supplies. A helicopter may be utilized for multiple small deliveries, but this translates to a higher waiting time for later deliveries.

LOGISTIC UAVS ARE THE WAY AHEAD

Today, militaries are seeking a solution to their logistic nightmares in technology, especially in the rapidly evolving domain of drones or UAVs.

Many advantages are associated with a military logistic supply line based on UAVs. First and foremost is the cost, which would be substantially lower than rotary/fixed-wing aircraft drops.

In harsh areas like Siachen and the Northeast, the rugged terrain restricts the number of helicopters that can be based forward for quick resupply with shorter turnaround.

While forward detachments of helicopters are based for a few days in rough helipads with minimal maintenance support, the number of aircraft remains limited.

The detachment must be turned over once the flying hours are quickly consumed. More UAVs can be easily based on forward jump-off points, allowing for a much faster turnaround.

The platforms need no major second-line maintenance and no air crew that must return for a few weeks to their family located at a major air base in the hinterland. In situations where a UAV is lost in service due to a technical fault or enemy action, a backup UAV can always be made airborne almost imme-

A UAV, being equipment, is an expendable resource, unlike

MR. ANSAR LONE

a pilot’s life and can be launched even under the most marginal and life-threatening weather conditions. The recent successful search for the crashed helicopter of the Iranian President Riasi illustrates this capability.

The search was undertaken immediately by Turkish drones flying at night with thermal imaging sensors under the most severe conditions, which grounded all aircraft types and made even ground-based search parties slow in their search.

Within a few hours, the drone could detect the crashed aircraft’s heat signature even as the sky was thickly covered with impenetrable cloud cover.

In a heavily contested air defence environment, as existing over the Ukrainian battlespace, movement of aerial platforms has been virtually ruled out unless they fly very high above the reach of most surface-to-air missile systems.

However, the skies are constantly buzzing with drones crisscrossing the battlefield carrying surveillance payloads, small bombs, and, when needed, some critical supplies. In situations like these, UAVs, which are comparatively smaller in size, can maintain the supply chain by their reduced detectability on RADAR and satellite imagery.

Although heavy attrition can be expected as UAVs are slow-moving targets, taking them down is relatively easy if detected, but their lower cost enables larger numbers to be fielded.

However, shooting a UAV with a guided missile itself creates an asymmetry in warfare, with UAVs costing way less than a manned aircraft and, most of the time, less than a missile itself.

If used in swarms, their chances of getting through even the densest air defences become much better.

Co-founder and CEO, COMRADO Aerospace, Program Director- UAV, ARTPARK, IISc

CHALLENGES OF TERRAIN

Although all geographies have their own logistics challenges, cargo transport through UAVs is most complicated in high-altitude areas due to the terrain, low temperature, low air density, and dynamic winds.

In hilly and mountainous regions, the wind sometimes blows across the ridgeline. This creates an updraft on the windward side and a downdraft on the leeward side.

When a UAV travels from an updraft to a downdraft region, it may become vulnerable to crash due to the terrain, resulting in high-cost equipment loss.

The low temperatures in such areas adversely affect the battery-operated UAVs, reducing the usable battery energy and sometimes losing power altogether. Also, the low density means that the UAV consumes more power to lift.

This can be taken care of by increasing the size of propellers when it comes to multi-copters and increasing the wing area in fixed-wing UAVs. But doing so makes very vulnerable to wind. lers mean air is pushed at lower speeds, and large wings mean low forward velocity.

very little energy required, whether engine-driven or battery-operated.

As mentioned in the earlier paragraph, batteries’ usable energy is reduced at low temperatures. Also, batteries as a technology have very low energy content for the same weight (low energy density) compared to IC engines.

In battery-driven UAVs, the battery itself is significantly heavy, eating up the payload capacity yet yielding less range and endurance.

A small wind disturbance can cause such UAVs to lose lift very fast. Low air density also means less oxygen, which causes an airbreathing engine to suffocate and produce low power.

The terrain also complicates maintaining communication links with the UAV. However, the use of intermediate relay UAVs and SATCOM is promising. Thus, it becomes very important to design a UAV considering all these factors.

MULTI-COPTER VERSUS FIXED WING

Multi-copter UAVs do not require an established infrastructure to operate, e.g., a runway. Fixed-wing UAVs offer better efficiency, yielding to long range, endurance, and high speed, but are infrastructure-dependent.

Also, when it comes to resilience towards wind, fixed-wing UAVs are more capable than multi-copters. Another category is fixed-wing VTOL UAVs; these have the vertical take-off and landing capability of multi-copters and the efficiency of fixed-wing UAVs.

Multi-copters and fixed-wing UAVs have benefits. For example, multi-copters, mainly electric, can be deployed faster and are practical for transporting light cargo to very short distances (last-mile logistics), say up to 5 to 10 Kilograms. Fixed-wing UAVs can be used to transport larger cargo (middle-mile logistics) with

hybrid UAVs are the most tion for long-range and delivery in the last mile.

The most common configuration is VTOL powered through the battery, and an IC engine/s supports the cruise. Such vehicles have the potential to transport cargo for hundreds of kilometres.

Apart from practicality and performance, such UAVs can be designed to have inbuilt redundancies. For example, if the control surfaces fail, the VTOL rotors can assist in maintaining the attitude; if VTOL rotors or the batteries fail, the engine can still bring the UAV to a place where it can be landed conventionally; if the engine fails, the VTOL system can land it safely, if the entire powerplant fails; there could still be a chance to glide to a place where it can be landed conventionally.

These are just a few examples; the potential is immense; these UAVs are complicated to design and perfect; however, the science is there to engineer such systems.

All it takes is to relentlessly work on bringing in RELIABILITY, RESILIENCE, SAFETY, SECURITY, and PERFORMANCE.

THE FUTURE

The future of logistics in high-altitude areas is the use of UAVs. They will ensure timely delivery of food, ammunition, medical and other supplies near and beyond the enemy lines.

They will also be used to transport wounded soldiers. An autonomous swarm of such UAVs will be used to transport large cargo in a highly coordinated manner.

Moreover, in the future, to avoid detectability, narrower paths such as caves, tunnels, and gorges will be navigated by autonomous UAVs. The UAVs will have fully autonomous advanced capabilities, with better obstacle detection and avoidance features that are unheard of.

SECURING THE INDO-PACIFIC

Why are we shy of calling ourselves a ‘net security provider’?

Rear Admiral Monty Khanna AVSM, NM, (Retd) is the former Deputy NSCS in New Delhi as the Assistant Military Adviser and Strategic Advisor at Synergia Foundation.

India occupies a central and prominent position in the Indian Ocean. Our centrality has been historically recognized in that the Indian Ocean is the only ocean in the world named after a country. While in contemporary terms, we may accuse ourselves of sea blindness, the same has not always been true. There have been periods in our history where the maritime domain has occupied a predominant position, not only for trade but even for culture and geopolitics. The Cholas, for instance, made extensive use of this domain to expand their empire. Culture and religion also travelled with seafarers to distant locations such as Thailand, Indonesia and Cambodia. The lasting effects of such civilizational intermingling are clearly evident even today in these countries.

Indian dynasties, not unlike anywhere else, have followed sinusoidal trajectories. The last of these dynasties, the Mughals, commenced their geo-political descent after the death of Aurangzeb. Wracked by inept leadership, infighting and plundering chieftains from Persia such as Nader Shah, their downfall was rapid, and they steadily seeded space to colonial entities such as the East India Company. As these companies were multinational in nature, they had interests in countries well beyond the Indian subcontinent. Given India’s enormous human resources, it was not long before the gains that could be made by shifting labour from India

While India has a vast coastline and associated EEZ, the administration and policing of which is challenging, we are fortunate to have large and growing capacities to do so. With some deft planning, there are periods during which we can generate excess capacities beyond domestic requirements. These are often deployed in support of our island partners. As our contribution to the police these waters exceed our domestic requirements (demands); on a hypothetical balance sheet, we are net security positive and, therefore, a ‘Net Security Provider’.

to scantily populated resource-rich colonies became evident. Thus started the indentured labour movement to countries such as Mauritius, South Africa, Fiji and Guyana amongst others. This had the collateral impact of intermingling of cultures on an industrial scale.

More recently, many countries have looked at India’s enormous human resource pool to meet their white—and blue-collar job requirements. As a consequence, the Indian diaspora now numbers close to thirty million. It can thus be seen that trade, religion, labour shortfalls, and Indian dynamism have all played a role in the movement of Indians overseas and the

consequent intermingling of cultures. In no region is this more evident than in the island nations in our periphery, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius and Seychelles. Our cultural overlap with these countries, though varying from nation to nation, is large.

This gives us a deeper insight into their lifestyles, business environment, opportunities and challenges, and decision-making dynamics. Coupled with this insight is our geographical proximity, thereby reducing the tyranny of distance. These advantages put us in a unique place to engage these countries to our mutual advantage.

One common thread amongst all these nations is the limitation of capacity to administer and police the enormous maritime resources that each is blessed with. A simple comparison between Mauritius and India illustrates this point. With a population of 1.42 billion, India exceeds the Mauritian population of 1.26 million by more than a thousand times.

When it comes to territory, the disparity is even starker, with India being 3.2 million sq km and Mauritius 2040 sq km, i.e. more than fifteen hundred times. However, when it comes to our Exclusive Economic Zones, we are almost at par with Mauritius, each country having an EEZ of about 2.3 million sq km. When India is at times challenged to police its own EEZ, one finds it difficult to imagine the challenges faced by Mauritius. The situation is no better in the other island states. Maldives, with a population of a little over half a million, has an EEZ of nearly a million square kilometres. The situation in Seychelles is even more telling. The country has a population of just 107,660 and an EEZ of 1.37 million square kilometres!

It is, therefore, natural that these island nations will be constrained in their capacities to address their maritime security challenges, be they smuggling, drug pedalling, gun running, human trafficking, IUU fishing, HADR, maritime pollution, maritime terrorism, piracy and safe navigation amongst others. To add to this com-

plex cocktail are the growing security challenges related to climate change, many of which may acquire an existential dimension for smaller island states.

While India has a vast coastline and associated EEZ, the administration and policing of which is challenging, we are fortunate to have large and growing capacities to do so. With some deft planning, there are periods during which we can generate excess capacities beyond domestic requirements.

These are often deployed in support of our island partners. As our contribution to the police these waters exceed our domestic requirements (demands); on a hypothetical balance sheet, we are net security positive and, therefore, a ‘Net Security Provider’. The term has been mainstreamed by several nations and in no way pontificates that this is a self-mandated role. All our contributions towards capacity building and capability enhancement with these island nations are based on mutual discussions, understanding and trust. In addition, when it comes to the global commons, we have so ably demonstrated our capability to provide a global good in the surge of deployments that have recently taken place off the horn of Africa to curb the resurgence of piracy.

Insofar as the island nations are concerned, we need to recognize that internal politics will give rise to administrations with varying degrees of affinity towards India. They will also leverage geo-political fault lines to obtain the maximum possible benefit for their people. In doing so, it will be best if they remain cognizant of our security concerns as we remain of theirs. However, some things will remain unchanged.

These are our geographical proximity and our cultural overlap. These are key parameters that throw open enormous opportunities that need to be leveraged to the greatest possible extent for our mutual benefit. Our island partners must be reassured that we will be there for them whenever they need us. We will always be a trustable ‘Net Security Provider’!

THE ECONOMICS OF ELECTIONS

The most expensive elections in the world throw up a plethora of issues, and the economic one is topping the list.

TSuchitra Padmanabhan is the Policy Research Associate at Synergia Foundation and has Post Graduate Degree in Social Policy & Planning from the London School of Economics.

his year is rightly being hailed as ‘the Mega Election Year.’ Across the globe, we will witness a historic turnout of the world’s populace exercising their voting rights, with elections slated across over 60 nations. “Elections will, therefore, be an important, if not the most important, macro story in 2024,” predicts Goldman Sachs’ economist Joseph Briggs. As per the World Economic Forum, more than 2 billion voters will head to the polls in countries including the United States, India, Mexico and South Africa.

India tops the chart with almost a billion individuals eligible to vote in its general election, marking it as the largest democratic endeavour to date. But this comes with a hefty price tag- almost 1.35 trillion rupees ($16 billion), as projected by the Centre for Media Studies (CMS), an Indian non-profit organization. This expenditure would surpass twice the amount spent during the previous election in 2019 and even eclipse the funds allocated for America’s presidential election in 2020.

PUTTING A PRICE TAG

India’s upcoming election is poised to be the most expensive, but the reasons behind this go beyond just the sheer size of the electorate.

Elections in India are characterized by significant spending, a hallmark of its political process. Economic transformation has reshaped traditional Indian occupations, notably agriculture, introducing a new layer of uncertainty. Job security is no longer guaranteed, prompting workers to explore alternative career paths amid heightened aspirations. However, this pursuit often pushes individuals to operate on the edge of their financial means, leaving little room for setbacks.

One such factor is the proliferation of candidates. In Indian elections, constituencies often feature numerous contenders. For instance, in 2019, an average of 15 candidates vied for each seat, a trend likely to persist in the current election.

Such crowded fields lead to intense and costly campaigning efforts. According to estimates by the Centre for Media Studies (CMS), over half of party and candidate spending in 2019 went towards advertisements, party workers’ wages, and transport.

With India’s expanding economy, voters are targeted through increasingly sophisticated and expensive methods, including a significant rise in digital mar-

keting expenditures. Another crucial aspect is the expenditure on incentives for voters, often undisclosed. CMS approximated that around a quarter of political spending in 2019 was directed towards voters through gifts, ranging from alcohol to electronics to cash bribes. However, this lavish spending is unlawful. The Election Commission seized assets worth 47 billion rupees just before voting commenced to ensure fair competition. Although there are caps on individual candidates’ campaign spending, enforcement is lax, and parties face little or no restrictions on their expenditures on the actual election trail.

The exorbitant costs of campaigning also shape the profile of elected representatives. Successful candidates tend to be affluent, with the median wealth of winners in 2019 being 40 million rupees, significantly higher than their competitors. Moreover, due to the prevalence of illicit spending, elected officials are more likely to have criminal backgrounds.

India is not alone in suffering these maladies of the democratic process; cash-for-votes practices are common in other developing democracies. Indian authorities have long grappled with reducing the nexus between money and politics. In 2018, the government introduced an “electoral bonds” scheme to curb the flow of undeclared funds into politics, but the initiative lacked transparency and was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in February this year.

ELECTION ECONOMY

Elections in India are characterized by significant spending, a hallmark of its political process. Economic transformation has reshaped traditional Indian occupations, notably agriculture, introducing a new layer of uncertainty. Job security is no longer guaranteed, prompting workers to explore alternative career paths amid heightened aspirations. However, this pursuit often pushes individuals to operate on the edge of their financial means, leaving little room for setbacks.

In times of crisis, those at the bottom of the socio-economic pyramid look to the state for support. The blend of economic uncertainty and heightened aspirations has expanded the scope of support families seek, ranging from education expenses to medical bills. Politicians who extend such assistance, often from personal coffers, must navigate the challenge of raising funds, even resorting to illegal means. Furthermore, they must provide aid and showcase their capacity to do so, contributing to ostentatious lifestyles. These expenses are typically offset upon attaining power. The rise of numerous such politicians has reshaped the dynamics of political parties, which now strive to attract individuals capable of mobilizing sizable support bases.

In elections dominated by a central political issue, parties align themselves with winning themes to sway public opinion. This necessitates signif-

icant investment in shaping narratives across various platforms, including social media and entertainment. This gives rise to a booming business opportunity for media platforms, social media handlers and even more mundane ways of spreading the parties’ manifesto through printed posters, handouts, giant cut-outs and loudspeakers carried in rikshaws and taxis. In fact, elections create their own peculiar economy during the course of an extended campaigning period typical of the U.S. and India.

Adding complexity, parties must stash funds overseas between elections. They must master the art of fundraising, concealing assets abroad, and repatriating them during election cycles. The substantial sums often lead parties to turn a blind eye to corruption if not actively endorsed. However, the risk of exposure carries severe political repercussions, prompting innovative strategies to raise, conceal, and retrieve funds within legal boundaries.

ECONOMY AS A PLANK FOR SUCCESS

Increasingly, the economy has become a critical plank upon which competing political parties anchor their case for being voted into power. In India, too, any incumbent government has always highlighted its economic gains as proof of its efficient governance. India’s GDP reportedly surged by over 8 per cent in the last quarter, potentially bolstering the prospects of the incumbent government in the forthcoming elections. Nonetheless, certain economists caution that the GDP upticks are often transitory and mask underlying challenges.

V Anantha Nageswaran, India’s chief economic advisor, asserts that robust domestic demand and private investments will sustain growth momentum. However, other economists advocate for a more nuanced evaluation of India’s economic vitality. They highlight that the elevated GDP figures may not accurately depict comprehensive growth, pointing to a decline in agriculture, uneven patterns in private consumption, and heightened dependence on public capital expenditure.

Lekha Chakraborty, a professor and chair at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, a research institute, commented that high GDP growth “does not ensure high human development, and there is a need to investigate other human development indicators, which are crucial to fine-tuning public policy.”

Economist Arun Kumar said that the GDP figures are based on the organized sector and are used to gauge the unorganized portion of India’s economy, but the unorganized sector represents a huge chunk of the Indian labour force.

“This washes out the decline in the unorganized sector, and the economy appears to be doing well,” says Kumar. A common complaint among voters has always been that the growth projected has not translated into jobs.

ELECTION FREEBIES

In the recent state elections, parties dangled pledges such as farm loan waivers and government employment to free education, increased cooking gas subsidies, financial assistance for women, college-going students receiving laptops, and reverting to the Old Pension Scheme (OPS).

Under pressure from the opposition’s promises of goodies, the government established a committee to review the New Pension Scheme (NPS) for government employees and extended the free food grain subsidy scheme for another five years, with an estimated cost of Rs 11.8 lakh crore, as part of the Union Budget 2023-24.

Yet, the line between welfare measures and giveaways blurs, leaving the question of who ultimately bears the cost. Do the promises of freebies add to the overall cost to the country’s growth prospects once the winners have to translate their promises into action? Concerns have been raised over such generosity at the cost of the public exchequer while the central and state governments struggle for fiscal prudence. Undoubtedly, it is the tax-paying public that will ultimately have to bear the burden of higher taxes.

Experts caution that the full fiscal impact of these promises on taxpayers may only manifest 12-18 months after a government takes office, once the schemes are fully implemented. Although estimating the exact cost of these promises can be challenging, a recent SBI Ecowrap report on the Karnataka Budget’s Arithmetic suggested an annual expenditure of nearly Rs 60,000 crore to fulfil the ruling dispensation’s five pre-election commitments. The report further outlines that an estimated Rs 35,000-40,000 crore for the current fiscal year is necessary to honour these commitments. Consequently, the subsidy has risen by Rs 14,500 crore in FY24 compared to the FY23 Revised Estimate, primarily due to enhanced energy and food supply subsidies.

Furthermore, the issue has reached the courts, with several cases pending before the Supreme Court. Notably, in October of last year, the Supreme Court issued notices to the governments of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the central government, and the Election Commission in response to a plea seeking comprehensive guidelines to prevent political parties from distributing cash and other freebies at the taxpayers’ expense.

ELECTIONS & GLOBAL ECONOMIES

Goldman Sachs Research has uncovered that as election day approaches, government spending tends to rise, central banking policies relax, and economic uncertainty escalates. Economists emphasize a substantial body of academic research indicating the occurrence of predictable policy shifts known as “political business cycles.” These cycles typically yield short-term increases in output and reductions in unemployment.

In a comprehensive analysis spanning over 1,100 elections across 152 developed and emerging markets,

Goldman Sachs Research reveals that primary fiscal balances, as a percentage of GDP, typically decline by approximately 0.4 percentage points in election years. This decline reflects both heightened spending and diminished revenue. Moreover, these effects tend to persist partially into the year following the election before gradually fading over the subsequent two years. The report goes on to say that “The most direct way politicians could try to steer election outcomes is by easing fiscal policy to provide a boost to the economy in the runup to the election.”

Monetary policy also typically relaxes during election years. However, the extent of this easing largely hinges on the strength and independence of the policymaking institutions. Central banks vary in terms of their autonomy, mandate, organizational structure, and leadership appointment process. Consequently, the potential for political influence in shaping monetary policy differs significantly across countries.

Despite politicians generally minimizing policy adjustments leading up to elections, the resulting uncertainty about future policies can influence economic decision-making. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which considers factors such as media coverage, expiring fiscal policies, and discrepancies among economic forecasters, indicates a broad-based increase in policy uncertainty during U.S. presidential election years.

“Taken together, our estimates suggest that elections have a predictable but modest impact on economic growth, with a moderate easing in fiscal policy and modest easing in monetary policy being partially offset by a modest growth drag from increased policy uncertainty,” reports the Goldman Sachs Research.

2024 marks a crucial year for global democracy through elections in major countries across the globe. Research indicates that government expenditure typically increases, central banking policies tend to ease, and economic uncertainty rises before an election. For the man on the street, it translates into a higher cost of living and rising inflation.

India’s election has caught global headlines as it is poised to be the most expensive, with many candidates, wooing strategies, and money wars waged across the country. As the country primes up for speeches, manifestoes and promises, this election promises to witness spending at a level not seen before and incomparable across the globe.

But it cannot be denied that whatever the cost of conducting elections at the scale being undertaken in India, if in the end they are free, fair, and truly strengthen democracy, the price is worth bearing, even by the millions of poorer Indians.

Synergia Takeaways

OMAN: REMAINING REGIONALLY RELEVANT

Oman has managed to retain its regional relevance through an adaptive foreign policy.

Tarini Dhar Prabhu, Research Associate in Synergia Foundation

Oman is the oldest independent Arab state, located in the southeast corner of the Arabian Peninsula. From wielding an influential empire to managing modern-day regional tensions, it has navigated the polarities between its powerful neighbours by maintaining an independent foreign policy.

It borders the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, and Yemen. It flanks the Arabian Sea in the south and east and the Gulf of Oman in the northeast. Strategically located at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, it shares maritime borders with Pakistan and Iran.

POLITICAL HISTORY OF OMAN

Oman was a sultanate known as Muscat and Oman until as recently as 1970. From the 17th century onwards, the Omani sultanate empire competed with the Portuguese and British empires for influence in the Gulf region and the Indian Ocean. By the 19th century, Oman was perhaps the most influential power in the region - its empire extended across the Strait of Hormuz to Iran and Pakistan and along the East African coast to Zanzibar, which it controlled. It has strong ties with Britain, which date back to the late 19th century.

A key turning point in its modern history was when Sultan Qaboos deposed his father in 1970 and set the country on a path of modernisation, abolishing slavery, which had once formed a major part of its trade. It is

Tighter ties with the Gulf country would provide India with a gateway to the narrow Strait of Hormuz, a major transit point for global oil shipments between Oman and Iran. With limited progress on a deal with the GCC, India has shifted its focus towards deals with individual GCC states like Oman and the UAE. As per the deal, Oman will waive duties on Indian exports across sectors like agriculture, gems, automobiles, and textiles. In turn, India will reduce tariffs on certain petrochemicals, aluminium, and copper imported from Oman.

worth noting that it was not a smooth ride in terms of territorial integrity. The Dhofar Rebellion from 1965-75 featured pro-Soviet secessionist groups against government troops. Oman’s Western ally, Britain, played an important role in supporting its operations during this Cold War turmoil, and the rebellion was finally put down with the assistance of Britain, Iran, Jordan, and Pakistan.

In 2011, the nation witnessed its share of the pro-democracy Arab Spring uprisings with a rare outbreak of political protest, which Sultan Qaboos managed by suppressing demonstrations and promising more jobs. However, he established that political power encompassing both executive and legislative functions

would remain his prerogative. The present-day leader, Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, succeeded to the throne when his cousin, Sultan Qaboos, passed away in 2020.

RESOURCES AND STRENGTHS

Oman’s oil reserves were uncovered in 1964, and production began soon after. Revenues from petroleum facilitated its significant development over the last 30 years. Its economy continues to rely heavily on oil exports with a continuously expanding per capita GDP. Additionally, tourism is the fastest-growing sector of the economy. Agriculture and industry combined account for less than 1% of the country’s exports. Its main natural resources are fuel resources (petroleum and natural gas), mineral resources, and fish.

Compared to its neighbours, Oman does not have vast oil resources. Further, the country’s complex geology makes exploring and producing oil expensive. This means that it will have to adapt to a post-oil economy sooner than other Gulf country states with higher reserves, such as Qatar and the UAE.

However, as Oman grapples with inflation and volatile oil prices, the Sultanate under Sultan Haitham has prioritised Vision 2040, aiming for a diversified and resilient economy. This mainly seeks to reduce dependence on oil and gas revenue and focus on opportunities for growth, such as the significant potential of the tourism and hospitality sector.

Oman is building upon its strategic location to develop its logistics and transport sector. With its deep-water ports, extensive road network, and proximity to key trade routes, the country is well-positioned to become a regional trade centre.

For instance, the Port of Salalah is the largest port in Oman and the largest seaport in the Arabian Peninsula, strategically located on the Arabian Sea.

Another approach that the Gulf Sultanate is relying on is investment funds like the Oman-UAE Tech Fund, which aims to support technology startups and encourage innovation, and the Oman Future Fund, which will invest in key sectors like tourism, logistics, manufacturing, and technology to create new jobs and boost the country’s oil exports.

OMAN’S REGIONAL ROLE

The late sultan Qaboos diverged from the country’s hitherto isolationist approach and adopted a neutral foreign policy, opening Oman to the rest of the world and spearheading its transformation into a key regional player. He strengthened the country’s ties with other Gulf monarchies and formed the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in 1981. Oman maintained ties with Qatar and Iran even during a spat in 2016 where it came under pressure from Saudi Arabia and the UAE for its ties with these regional outliers.

Amid the long-running Saudi-Iran rivalry, Oman has sought to manage this insecure environment by maintaining cordial ties with rival factions and favouring negotiation over conflict where possible. This has enabled it to play a stabilising role in the region.

The UAE remains a crucial trading partner for Oman and has been a leading Arab destination for Oman exports and a source of Omani imports. The UAE and Saudi crown princes have formed a powerful alliance that exerts its influence across the Middle East and beyond. The Saudi-Emirati bloc and Oman differ on several foreign policy considerations, such as the war in Yemen, ties with Iran, and the blockade of Qatar, which has now come to a close. Oman abstained from joining the Saudi and Emirati-led coalition in Yemen in 2015 and instead endeavoured to mediate in the conflict. Unlike the Saudis and Emiratis, Oman maintains a working relationship with Iran, like Qatar, which also refuses to be strong-armed into aligning with Saudi and UAE foreign

policy. In fact, during the blockade of tiny Qatar, which was considered contrarian amongst its larger neighbours, Oman significantly increased its engagement and trade with Doha.

Despite their economic ties, Omani-Emirati ties face political friction, with Oman on edge regarding suspected Emirati interference in its internal affairs. In 2018, Oman arrested members of a spy ring backed by Abu Dhabi. Another bone of contention is Oman’s Musandam Peninsula. This exclave juts out into the strategic Strait of Hormuz and borders the UAE amidst a history of territorial disputes between the two neighbours.

Rather like Qatar, due to Oman’s relatively independent and neutral foreign policy, it has been able to don the role of mediator in the region, as witnessed in its major role in the Iran nuclear deal, where it offered a back-channel between Washington and Tehran. This also enables it to help actors like the U.S. and European Union engage with the Middle East. It has also played an intermediary in U.S.-Iran negotiations over captives. Additionally, Oman has been involved in Arab-Israeli negotiations. It more recently has been able to play a key role in the Gaza and Red Sea crisis due to its close ties with Iran and carefully built network with the Houthis. Oman refused to join the US-led maritime security operation against the Houthis but worked to de-escalate tensions.

INDIA AND OMAN

In fact, to counter the regional threat posed by the Houthis while distancing itself from the U.S. counteroperation, Oman has strengthened cooperation with outside powers that can still project power in the region, like India. In December 2023, Sultan Haitham bin Tariq Albusaidi visited New Delhi. This paved the way for the stronger involvement of the Indian Navy in the waters around the Arabian Peninsula.

Pursuant to the deal, Oman set aside a zone in the port of Duqm as a logistic base for Indian naval operations. This boosts India’s logistical capacities at a critical point in time - the Indian Navy recently started its

largest deployment of naval assets to the Gulf of Aden and western Arabian Sea. The objective of the operation is to prevent pirates from exploiting the Red Sea crisis while assisting commercial vessels affected by the Houthis attacks. Yet, the Indian navy is careful not to enter the Red Sea, which would associate it with the U.S.-led coalition and risk provoking the Houthis. In this way, India and Oman have something in commonthey both prefer to prioritise their independent foreign policy and avoid provoking or incurring hostility where possible.

India and Oman are set to wrap up a trade agreement as New Delhi looks to improve its ties in the Middle East, where escalating geopolitical tensions have jeopardised crucial shipping routes. The deal would help India win a strategic ally and gain access to critical trade routes in the volatile region. Annual Oman-India trade is less than $13 billion.

Tighter ties with the Gulf country would provide India with a gateway to the narrow Strait of Hormuz, a major transit point for global oil shipments between Oman and Iran. With limited progress on a deal with the GCC, India has shifted its focus towards deals with individual GCC states like Oman and the UAE. As per the deal, Oman will waive duties on Indian exports across sectors like agriculture, gems, automobiles, and textiles. In turn, India will reduce tariffs on certain petrochemicals, aluminium, and copper imported from Oman.

Synergia Takeaways

Having maintained ties across the spectrum and with a time-tested preference for mediation, Oman plays a key role in the region as tensions threaten to spark a larger regional war.

Oman-India cooperation can help the two nations navigate regional challenges. As Oman looks for outside support amidst regional polarities, India looks to strengthen its presence in the Middle East to preserve access to critical trade routes.

A TECH DETENTE IN THE MAKING?

The US-China talks on AI and other issues have been widely welcomed in a tense geopolitical standoff.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

In the last week of April, a visit that received much media attention was made by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Beijing.

That the visit was substantial can be concluded from the list of whom he met- a veritable Who’s Who in the upper echelons of China’s hierarchy- President Xi Jinping, Director of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Foreign Affairs Commission and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong, and Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Jining.

While the customary bland press statement at the end of the meeting covered a wide bucket list of items on the agenda, what made the visit especially interesting was the focus on the technological rivalry between the two tech giants. Both parties announced their intention to hold high-level talks on artificial intelligence (AI) within the “coming weeks.”

The announcement marks a potential turning point in the often-tense relationship between the two global superpowers. The talks will probably focus on the risks and safety concerns surrounding advanced AI technologies if and when they occur.

This development represents a rare moment of cooperation amidst ongoing trade tensions and national security concerns.

For almost a decade, the technological rivalry between the U.S. and China has been steadily becoming more strident and vocal, and it has done much to poison the international geopolitical environment. This is to be expected as emerging technologies will drive global primacy, as reflected in the growing significance of artificial intelligence in global affairs. Both powers recognise AI’s profound implications on national security, economic vitality, and societal norms.

THE GENEVA TALKS

Subsequently, on 16 May, top American and Chinese experts met in Geneva to discuss the road map to ensure AI technologies do not become existential threats. If all goes well, these talks will pave the way for a more comprehensive discussion between the two powers on emerging technology issues that have consequences not only for them but the whole world, even those who are not even remotely involved in the rivalry.

The U.S., which for the last few years has been stonewalling Beijing from all technological access in the West, has lost sight of what the Chinese are capable of in this intervening period when scientific interaction

was totally taboo. These talks could offer insight into how the Chinese leadership and their technocrats are visualising the fielding of AI, especially in the military domain. This is one area where Beijing has maintained watertight secrecy.

Both sides fully realise that if AI is allowed to rampage through military capabilities, very soon, a stage will be reached when it will become impossible to impose internationally acceptable limitations and regulations; the genie has to be somehow put back safely in the bottle now and a secure cap put before it is too late.

However, the biggest current and present danger is deepfakes, which could play a dangerous role in American elections and disinformation campaigns that can further vitiate an already tense global geopolitical landscape.

Paul Scharre, an AI expert at the Centre of New American Security, has been quoted as saying, “ It is vital for the U.S. and China to begin discussions on improving AI safety […] The stakes are high, and the consequences of AI-related accidents could be severe.”

SHRINKING SPACE FOR CONSENSUS

Hidden from the public glare, moves have been afoot for some time to engage in substantial talks at the appropriate levels on major technology irritants.

This was evident after the November 2023 San Francisco meeting between President Biden and General Secretary Xi Jinping. Mr Blinken’s announcement indicates that the issue is being actively pursued at the functional level to arrive at some sort of a ‘Tech Détente.’

For almost a decade, the technological rivalry between the U.S. and China has been steadily becoming more strident and vocal, and it has done much to poison the international geopolitical environment. This is to be expected as emerging technologies will drive glob-

al primacy, as reflected in the growing significance of artificial intelligence in global affairs. Both powers recognise AI’s profound implications on national security, economic vitality, and societal norms.

The talks, scheduled to commence in the coming weeks, are not just about technological exchange but are deeply rooted in the broader context of U.S.-China relations-trade tensions, military competition, and concerns over technological sovereignty and security. The dialogue aims to tackle the dual aspects of opportunity and threat presented by advanced AI technologies.

According to PwC, AI could contribute up to $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030, with $6.6 trillion likely from increased productivity and $9.1 trillion from consumption effects.

The U.S. and China are poised to be the biggest beneficiaries of this growth, emphasising the strategic importance of AI in their economic agendas.

THE CLASH OF TITANS

China produces nearly half of the world’s top AI researchers, significantly impacting the global AI landscape. This talent pool is pivotal as it underpins the country’s ambitions to lead in AI innovation. Conversely, the U.S. hosts 38 per cent of top AI researchers working domestically, with a substantial proportion originally from China. This interdependence highlights the critical nature of collaboration and competition in AI development.

AI’s integration into military systems raises significant strategic stability issues. The U.S. Department of Defence’s 2023 AI strategy emphasises developing AI for defence that is ethical, safe, and governed by law. Similarly, China’s military modernisation includes integrating AI technologies to enhance its capabilities, underscoring the need for dialogue on mutual security concerns.

From a U.S. perspective, the AI talks are a strategic component of broader national security and technology competitiveness goals under the Biden administration. Engaging with China on AI governance aligns with efforts to safeguard American technological leadership while ensuring that AI development does not compromise global security.

For China, the dialogue serves as a platform to influence global norms and assert its status as a tech superpower. Participating in these talks allows China to negotiate on data security and the ethical use of AI, aligning with its objectives to be seen as a responsible major power while promoting its interests in technological autonomy.

These talks could potentially act as a buffer against escalating tensions in other areas of U.S.-China relations, such as trade disputes and military posturing in the Asia-Pacific. By finding common ground on AI governance, both nations have the opportunity to stabilise relations and build trust. This dialogue could serve as a precedent for cooperation on other critical emerging technologies, such as quantum computing and biotechnology.

The decision to hold AI talks reflects a delicate balancing act between competition and cooperation in U.S.-China relations. While both countries remain engaged in strategic rivalry across multiple domains, they also recognise the mutual benefits of cooperation in managing AI risks and ensuring its responsible deployment. The talks offer the U.S. and China an opportunity to establish common principles and guidelines for AI governance, thereby reducing uncertainty and enhancing stability in the global AI landscape.

At the same time, the AI talks are likely to be influenced by broader geopolitical dynamics and domestic considerations. Issues such as trade tensions, intellec-

tual property rights, and human rights may impact the scope and outcome of the discussions. Moreover, both countries face pressure from domestic stakeholders, including industry groups, policymakers, and civil society organisations, which may shape their negotiating positions and priorities during the talks.

A word of caution would be appropriate at this juncture. Considering the deep-seated differences in AI governance approaches and strategic interests, a breakthrough should not be immediately expected. However, once the rival powers start talking substantially, the potential for divergent outcomes and limited progress in areas where the U.S. and China have conflicting priorities could pave the way for the future. Hopefully, it could lead to collaboration and shared successes in AI governance, research, and application at some future date!

Synergia Takeaways

These talks are pivotal for developing a cooperative framework that ensures AI advancements contribute positively to society. This involves creating standards that maximise benefits while minimising risks related to national security, privacy, and ethical concerns.

By coming to the table, both nations demonstrate a strategic understanding of AI’s role in global power structures and the willingness to address potential points of conflict and competition.

The rest of the world, caught in the middle, can only hope that whatever emerges from the talks will prevent a technological Cold War. As we saw from the last Cold War, there are no winners.

HUMAN RIGHTS & THE INDIAN CONSTITUTION

The Indian Constitution sets a framework for human rights, which has been elaborated and implemented through judicial interpretation.

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As is commonly understood, human rights are basic rights available to any human being, irrespective of nationality, religion, language, sex, or colour. The Indian Constitution lays down basic human rights, which are available to every Indian citizen. The framers of the Constitution set down the foundational provisions embodied in the Fundamental Rights and Preamble and facilitated by the Directive Principles of State Policy. Fundamental rights are the main provisions that ingrain human rights in India’s core legal text.

The Indian Protection of Human Rights Act, 1993, came into existence on 8th January 1994. The Act provides “for the constitution of a National Human Rights Commission, State Human Rights Commissions in States and Human Rights Courts for better protection of human rights and for matters connected therewith or incidental thereto.” The Act defines human rights as relating to life, liberty, equality, and dignity guaranteed by the Constitution or laid down in International Covenants and enforceable by courts in India.

THE JOURNEY OF HUMAN RIGHTS IN INDIA

Human rights in India are historically embedded in the great religions that originated from the Indian peninsula—Buddhism, Jainism, and Hinduism. They are

The Indian Constitution provides the legal foundations for human rights. Judicial interpretation has brought the Constitution to life, fleshing out the matter and scope of fundamental rights and expanding their ambit to include important rights like the right to privacy and the right to live with dignity.

mentioned in religious texts like the Gita, Vedas, Arthasastra, and Dharmashastra. Later, under the Mughals, enlightened rulers like Akbar the Great and Jahangir were known to have a keen regard for rights and justice in their rule.

With British colonisation came a mix of terrible exploitation and harsh human rights violations, as well as the creation of a legal system. As the East India Company cemented its presence in India, it indiscriminately used force to subdue the massive populace and extract revenues at the point of the bayonet. At the same time, the British imported a legal system that paved the way for modern human rights in India.

The term “human rights” is mentioned in the United Nations Charter, which covers provisions on human rights. In the post-World War II context, the horrors of Nazism and Fascism were still fresh in the minds of world leaders. The drafters of the charter were peering behind the events of the war to its causes, i.e., the dicta-

torships and authoritarian states that made it possible, which brought human rights into focus.

This led to the promulgation of the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR), a milestone document in the history of human rights, drafted by representatives from different legal and cultural backgrounds from all regions of the world. The UDHR sets fundamental human rights for the first time to be universally protected.

The UDHR is widely recognised as having inspired and paved the way for adopting more than seventy human rights treaties, which are applied today on a permanent basis at global and regional levels.

India voted to adopt the UDHR on December 10, 1948. Given its experience with British colonial rule and the prevalent human rights violations during the freedom struggle, the newly independent nation needed no lessons on what human rights meant. While international covenants like the UDHR may not be legally binding, they still contributed to the Constitution makers’ interpretation of human rights when the Constitution was framed.

The Indian Constitution almost entirely adopted the rights laid down in the UDHR through the Fundamental Rights as well as the Directive Principles of State Policy.

However, unexplainably, while the Constitution of India emphasises Fundamental Rights, it does not specifically mention the term “human rights”. It is known that the Constituent Assembly formed an advisory committee chaired by Sardar Patel, Dr BR Ambedkar, BN Rau, KT Shah, Harman Singh, and KM. Munshi to draft a list of rights. However, they failed to agree on the principles.

It must be remembered that while fundamental rights are similar to human rights, they differ in that they have legal sanctions and are enforceable in a court. Further, they are country-specific and drafted with the country’s history and culture kept in mind.

CHARACTERISTICS OF FUNDAMENTAL RIGHTS

The Indian Constitution provides and protects fundamental rights set out in Part III. These rights can be directly enforced against the state in case they are violated. Article 13(2) enshrines the core nature of these rights by prohibiting the state from making any law that violates the Fundamental Rights.

This means that if a law or a part of a law infringes the Fundamental Rights, it will be declared void. Additionally, if the void portion cannot be separated from the main Act, the entire Act is to be declared void. This is known as the doctrine of severability.

Many of the civil and political rights in the International Covenant on Political and Civil Rights (ICCPR) 1966 are also incorporated in Part III of the Constitution.

However, several of them were not included, which judicial decisions have subsequently added, widening the scope of fundamental rights - particularly through Article 21 - and making fundamental rights more active and meaningful. In the case of Maneka Gandhi v. Union of India, the court observed that the expression “personal liberty” in Article 21 is of the widest ambit and covers a range of rights.

The Parliament has the power and authority to restrict fundamental rights on reasonable grounds. These grounds for restriction are subject to judicial review to ensure they are reasonable.

Consequently, fundamental rights are not absolute. Moreover, they can be suspended in national emergencies, though the rights under Articles 20 and 21 will still apply. Fundamental rights are directly enforceable at the Supreme Court if infringed.

Invoking articles 352 and 356 of the Indian Constitution, Indira Gandhi granted herself extraordinary powers and launched a massive crackdown on civil rights and political opposition during the 1975 Emergency.

Under Article 352, the president can declare a National Emergency in India when the security of India or a part of it is threatened by war, external aggression, or armed rebellion.

A brief overview of important fundamental rights is as follows:

Article 14 - Right to Equality: This requires that all individuals be treated the same under the law.

Article 15 - Prohibition of Discrimination: This prohibits discrimination of any kind based on religion, race, place of birth, caste, or gender. It also enables the government to create special provisions for women, children, and backward classes, thereby allowing affirmative action.

Article 16 - Equal Opportunity in Public Employment requires the state to provide equal employment opportunities without discrimination. However, it can make special provisions for backward classes.

Article 19 - Right to Freedom: This guarantees six freedoms: speech and expression, assembly, formation of associations and unions, movement freely, residence, and profession.

Article 20 - Protection of Citizens in Case of Conviction for Offences This offers three kinds of protections in criminal prosecution: protection against retrospective criminal legislation, double jeopardy (being tried for the same offence twice), and self-incrimination (being compelled to provide incriminating evidence against oneself).

Article 21 - Right to Life. This prohibits the state from depriving an individual of his life and personal liberty except by lawful procedure. However, the concept of “life” and “liberty” have been interpreted to encompass a range of rights.

Article 21-A - free and compulsory education for children aged 6-14.

Article 22 - Protection against Arrest and Detention. This article protects against arbitrary arrest and detention and provides procedural safeguards in case of arrest.

Article 25 - Freedom to Profess, Practice and Propagate one’s religion.

Article 32 - Right to Constitutional Remedies. This provides certain remedies in case fundamental rights are violated, namely writs, which enable the courts to pass an order to rectify a violated fundamental right.

Extended Rights: Some major aspects of fundamental rights that judicial interpretations have extended include the right to live with human dignity, to clean air, water, and environment, freedom from noise pollution, the right to a speedy trial and free legal aid, the right to livelihood, the right to food and medical care, and the right to privacy.

SOME LANDMARK JUDICIAL DECISIONS

In the landmark case of Kesavananda Bharati v. State of Kerala (1974), the Supreme Court held that Parliament does not have the power to amend the basic structure of the Constitution. However, the Parliament can amend any part of the Constitution, including all the fundamental rights provided to it as per the ‘Doctrine of Basic Structure’ of the Constitution, which was developed in this case. The Supreme Court decided constitutional changes cannot alter the basic structure or core tenets. The specific features constituting the basic structure have been elaborated through subsequent decisions. These include features like the sovereignty of India, democracy, secularism, the fact that it is a republic, free and fair elections, and judicial review.

Indira Nehru Gandhi vs. Raj Narain. This case pertained to election disputes involving then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and the 39th Amendment to the Constitution. In its judgment, the Supreme Court added key features to the list of “basic structure” features. These included rule of law, democracy, and judicial review.

Maneka Gandhi v. Union of India. The context for this case was that Maneka Gandhi’s passport was confiscated in “public interest” and justified based on a procedure. The Supreme Court held that due “procedure” under Article 21 could not be arbitrary, unfair, oppressive, or unreasonable.

HUMAN RIGHTS PROTECTION

The Indian Constitution provides the legal foundations for human rights. Judicial interpretation has brought the Constitution to life, fleshing out the matter and scope of fundamental rights and expanding their ambit to include important rights like the right to privacy and the right to live with dignity.

Moreover, enforcement through judicial decisions and legal remedies like writs plays an important role in protecting human rights at the ground level. It gives teeth to the Constitutional provisions for human rights.

Additionally, doctrines like the basic structure doctrine and the doctrine of severability ensure the primacy of fundamental rights and the Constitution’s core tenets and character and prevent them from being overridden by judicial decisions or laws.

While constitutionally, adequate safeguards exist to secure human rights in India, due to the large size of the country and the disparate internal disturbances/ rebellions that have threatened to break the union of India, there have been regular allegations of human rights violations, both in the domestic media and internationally.

The Hindu (23 Apr 24) quotes the U.S. State Department’s 2023 Human Rights Report (HRR). This country-wise compilation of human rights practices has flagged “credible reports” of more than a dozen different kinds of human rights abuses in India, including extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, arbitrary arrest or detention, torture to coerce confessions, repeated imposition of Internet shutdowns and blocked telecommunications, surveillance of civil society activists and journalists, intimidation and Internet trolling of human rights defenders, punishment of family members for alleged offences by a relative, and “crimes involving violence or threats of violence targeting members of ethnic and caste minorities”, among others. In a section titled ‘Transnational repression’, the HRR referred to reports of the Indian government engaging in repression of “journalists, members of diaspora, civil society activists, and human rights defenders.” The Indian government trashed the report, and its official spokesperson said, “This report is deeply biased and reflects a very poor understanding of India. We attach no value to it.”

The Human Rights Watch, in its World Report 2024, has highlighted alleged incidents of human rights violations. These allegations include police abuses against low-income communities, extrajudicial killings and immunity enjoyed by security forces personnel, violations of minority rights, etc.

Synergia Takeaways

The Indian Constitution reflects international human rights jurisprudence, particularly through the fundamental rights embodying abstract human rights in a concrete and legally enforceable form.

However, they have been brought to life, safeguarded, and enforced through judicial decisions that have expanded their scope and helped ensure that restrictions imposed on them are reasonable and protected their overarching status from new laws and parliament amendments.

While India’s Constitution provides a strong foundation for protecting human rights, there are still significant challenges in ensuring these rights are upheld. Discrimination, censorship, police brutality, and gender inequality continue to be major obstacles to the full realisation of human rights for all citizens. The government and civil society must work together to address these issues and create a more just and equitable society for all. Only then can India truly live up to its promise as a democratic nation that respects and protects the rights of all its people.

RABIES: A DEADLY CONSEQUENCE OF AN INFECTED DOG BITE

The prevention of rabies starts with a basic understanding of disease transmission.

RDr. Gifty Immanuel MD, PhD, FRCP, FIDSA, is the Medical Director at Synergia Foundation.

abies is a 100% fatal disease. Rabies poses a huge share of the disease burden in India and other Asian countries.

Dogs are the major vectors of the disease; occasionally, cats, wolves, and rats could also transmit the disease.

In the past two years alone, nearly 250 people have lost their lives to rabies in India. Many of the victims were vaccinated and underwent all preventive therapies. It is still a medical mystery why these people contracted the disease and died.

A host of inappropriate steps have been cited for vaccine failure. These include delayed immunization, poor wound cleansing, and forceful suturing of the wound.

Whatever the reasons, several surveys indicate that the general awareness of the disease remains minuscule. Traditional healers, herbal therapies, occult or magical remedies, and ignorance compound the problem in rural areas. Victims approach medical centres only after rabies symptoms develop. By then, it is too late for any treatment to be effective.

There have been few rabies survivors worldwide (through experimental therapies like the Milwaukee Protocol). However, the outcomes have not been uniformly successful.

Rabies, a disease with a 100% fatality rate, continues to impose a significant health burden in India and other Asian countries. Despite advances in vaccines and preventive therapies, nearly 250 lives were lost in India in the past two years alone.

A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

Rabies has been recorded in Egyptian papyrus and many ancient Indian medicine textbooks. As a clinical entity, it has been well-recognized since antiquity. Rabies also strikes fear in the hearts of people, as most victims die of severe symptoms with throat spasms while drinking water (hydrophobia). Folktales are ridden with stories of rabid humans turning into dogs or barking like dogs while dying. This is partly due to the misinterpretation of the distressing symptoms of hydrophobia.

In 1885, Louis Pasteur, the father of germ theory, discovered the first effective vaccine against rabies. This vaccine has saved many lives from the dreaded disease. Today, we have monoclonal antibodies, immune globulins, and many types of vaccines against rabies. Yet, it remains a deadly scourge and disease control remains difficult.

In tropical countries, dog vectors are responsible for more than 90 per cent of rabies cases. In colder countries, raccoons, bears, squirrels, badgers, and even bats can carry the rabies virus. Further, domestic animals that encounter infected wild animals could

also become infected. Knowledge of rabies prevention might be the first step in the larger effort to control or eliminate the disease.

PREVENTION: THE ONLY CURE

The prevention of rabies starts with a basic understanding of disease transmission. Any rabies-prone wound should be washed with soap and water for 15 minutes (a povidone-iodine wash can be used if available). The wound should never be sutured (unless it is infiltrated with immunoglobulin or monoclonals).

The full course of the vaccine should be followed as instructed by the medical practitioner. There should be no delay in seeking medical help. Most of the deaths have been caused by delayed vaccination.

Stray dogs and unvaccinated pets are a huge problem in the Indian subcontinent. There are serious public health initiatives to vaccinate all stray dogs, but it might take time to eliminate rabies in dogs.

Rarely squirrels, cats, rats, cows, sheep, monkeys, badgers, wolves, or any warm-blooded mammal can harbour the rabies virus and transmit it through a bite. However, the decision to vaccinate and administer immunological treatments is left to the medical practitioner.

Meanwhile, cave explorers should be cautious of the possibility of acquiring rabies in the caves. For instance, some species of bats can carry the rabies virus, and while roosting, they can aerosolize the virus, which can be acquired by inhalation.

In another less recognized pathway, the rabies virus can also be transmitted by transplantation of the cornea and other organs from infected donors.

Understandably, all high-risk personnel, like veterinarians, wildlife biologists, animal handlers, eco-tourists, cave explorers, zookeepers, postmen, courier delivery agents, pet owners, and pet shop owners, need to be vaccinated pre-emptively. Further, they could take an annual booster based on their risk profile.

CONCLUSION

Rabies has been a formidable enemy, endangering human health for centuries. Nearly two centuries after Pasteur’s groundbreaking discovery, rabies is resurging at an alarming pace.

The problem is quite severe on the Indian subcontinent. In the last two years, Kerala, Karnataka, and Delhi have reported the highest number of rabies deaths.

Rabies remains a neglected tropical disease and a huge public health problem. It is one of the few viral diseases that reaches 100 per cent mortality. WHO reports indicate nearly 60,000 people lose their lives to rabies every year.

Rabies Cure research is gaining momentum, but until we have an effective drug, primary prevention through timely wound care, vaccination, biological administration, and preventive vaccination in high-risk groups remain the main arms of prevention. Arguably, disease literacy is the most important first step in addressing rabies, an existential threat.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Fooks, A. R., & Jackson, A. C. (2020). Rabies: scientific basis of the disease and its management ([4th ed.]). Academic Press.

Kimitsuki, K., Khan, S., Kaimori, R., el al (2023). Implications of the antiviral drug favipiravir on rabies immunoglobulin for post-exposure prophylaxis of rabies in mice model with category III-like exposures. Antiviral research, 209, 105489.

Smith, T. G., Jackson, F. R., et al (2020). Antiviral Ranpirnase TMR-001 Inhibits Rabies Virus Release and Cell-to-Cell Infection In Vitro. Viruses, 12(2), 177.

WHO Rabies Modelling Consortium (2020). Zero human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030: perspectives from quantitative and mathematical modelling. Gates open research, 3, 1564.

FOUR BATTLEGROUNDS: POWER IN THE AGE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE.

Paul Scharre is a former U.S. Army Ranger who served in Iraq and Afghanistan. He is the author of the award-winning study of autonomous weapons, “Army of None.” He is currently executive vice president and director of studies at the Centre for a New American Security.

In his latest book, “Four Battlegrounds,” Paul Scharre narrates the story of an emerging great power contestation centred around the primacy in the field of artificial intelligence. Paul describes the new industrial revolution in which AI impacts every aspect of life on planet Earth.

Consequently, disruptions would be a natural outcome when big Powers- the U.S., China, and Europetry to take the lead in this domain. Unsurprisingly, this has triggered an intense rivalry as the U.S. and China struggle to gain the pole position in this game-changing technology.

Both sides are keenly aware of the fruits that await the winner of this race that is being hotly contested. Sadly, the blowback of this competition is impacting global geopolitics and geoeconomics, leaving their traces on all and sundry, even those not remotely involved in the AI race.

Essentially, what the book calls the four battlegrounds are the critical components of this cutting-edge technology—computing power, data banks, talent pool, and institutional support. The most worrisome is AI’s

role in the military competition between the two powers and its spillover to other regions. AI will profoundly change the world of military conflict, human security, and the basic right of human freedom. It’s a contest whose outcome could potentially be cataclysmic for democracy as we know it.

Q: In your book, you discuss at length the inevitable collision path between the groups led by China and the one led by the USA and its allies. As we speak, you are aware of a meeting between the USA and China in Geneva. Do you think something tangible will come out of it in defining some standards to manage AI and prevent it from becoming an existential threat, or is it going to be shadowboxing? Is there a regulatory mechanism coming out of this?

In the first meeting, we are not going to see much progress because it’s just diplomacy, which is moving very slowly. In the opening phases, both sides will share their own perspectives, which may be different.

The U.S. is very concerned about AI risk. China worries about the U.S. sanctions imposed on Chinese companies through export controls. This is classic diplomacy.

They are talking about different things. I think the question is very open. Will they get past their original differences in subsequent meetings and find some common ground or areas to discuss? I hope so. I think it’s conceivable. It’s possible. It doesn’t mean it’s going to happen.

The U.S. and China have had a difficult track record of cooperation; even when the U.S. believes that there are shared interests, whether it’s on climate change or public health, they have yet to be very successful in cooperation.

Q: The IDF, the Israeli Defense Forces, has been reported to have used AI, and there seems to be an acknowledgement of it as well. With all this larger debate on the ethical use of AI and the accountability of the human element behind any decision or action taken as a result of an AI application, what is your opinion on this matter?

We don’t have many details on exactly what’s occurring. There is a very detailed report about Lavender and other related AI systems.

The Israel Defense Forces denied that report. They acknowledged that they were doing something, but they did not provide many details about what they were do-

ing. So, I think there are still some question marks. I think the allegations point to the kind of thing that can go wrong if you’re using AI in the wrong way. What was alleged in this report was the algorithm was generating targets.

Then people were having a very cursory approval process, saying, sure, it’s fine and approving it. There was, technically, a human approving them, but not a lot of real human oversight.

It’s a good case study for the kinds of things that we want to try to avoid. However, there will also be military pressures to move fast and short-change the process.

Q: In your book, you recommend that governments invest in algo-evolution and computing power independently. What should the Indian government do to attract talent into our ecosystem while competing with the private sector, whose salaries the public sector can hardly match? How is the US government dealing with this problem?

This has been a struggle for the United States as well because while the pool from the tech sector is very strong, the government cannot possibly compete in terms of money, salary, and equity offered by companies in the private sector. However, there are several advantageous things that the government could do.

Firstly, in most cases, the government contracts private companies to build technology that the government could use- cloud infrastructure, building curated data sets, or training models. The question remains: how much does the government do in-house on its own, and how much does it contract out, using that talent from the private sector?

Then, it is imperative to have contracting mechanisms that allow the government to have access to their intellectual property, preventing it from being locked into a single vendor. We need talented people in the government, and people reading and writing government contracts must be aware of these issues.

Many people in the U.S. technical system want to work in the government; the bigger challenge for them is the frustration of being in the government. They are used to being a part of the private tech world- where you can get things done. The frustration due to all the red tape in the government makes them want to leave.

A bigger solution for the government is making it easier to get things done because the government has capabilities and power that you can’t get in the private

sector, which appeals to people who want to have a big impact.

Q: You mentioned the phrase ‘curated data sets.’ Sharing military data with civil ecosystems is very sensitive. Talking of finding automated means of suitable data curation has spurred concern about compromising one’s data security. Is the auto-curation of large data sets actually possible, or do we rely on traditional methods?

Most data sets need to be manually curated in part because if you had the automation to curate the data, you would already have a trained AI solution. Data curation is a manual and labour-intensive process, so classification becomes a concern. In some cases, the U.S. Government has de-classified data to work with companies that don’t have security clearances.

However, some companies have security clearances and experience working with the military, but these companies are not always the best AI companies, which is a problem.

Q: What about the recent developments related to the compromise of personal data by the so-called, you know, surveillance capitalists and the associated litigation aspect that is coming up now? Will the order on data binding, restrictions on collection and use of such data by big tech companies be a crippling blow to the progression of AI applications? Or could this possibly be one method to rein in AI progression control over data?

In the United States, we currently do not have a federal data privacy regulation. There are some state efforts, such as those in California.

However, for the U.S. federal government, there is no regulation on data privacy. This is an unregulated environment where companies are just scooping up private data and using it for various purposes. These data breaches are where private data gets released.

I get letters probably every other week. Some companies said, sorry, your data got leaked. You might want to watch out for fraud. It happens all the time. And for whatever reason, we’ve been unable to get successful regulation. I think it would be good. And many people in Washington would like to see it, but we haven’t gotten there yet.

PAUL SCHARRE

Executive Vice President and Director of Studies at CNAS, the award-winning author of Four Battlegrounds

SOUTHERN AIR COMMAND & SYNERGIA CONCLAVE

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