Insights June Edition 2024 by Synergia_Insights

Dear Reader:

Greetings from the Synergia Foundation!

This month’s spotlight is on digital media’s allpervasive influence over our business, personal and political lives. We take a deep dive into how social media impacts political thoughts and, in turn, elections. The recent elections in India and Pakistan saw the most influential campaign battles being waged on social media platforms. Video platforms like TikTok have been embroiled in geopolitical confrontations between nation-states, leading to intense scrutiny and, in some cases, an outright ban in some states, such as India. This just goes to show the fear and panic that social media can incite amongst policymakers, both in authoritarian and democratic systems.

Located in the heart of India’s thriving startup ecosystem, the Synergia Foundation has been a vocal advocate for the involvement of numerous startups in the defence technology sector. While our previous issue extensively covered this topic, this issue shifts the focus to the crucial role of the Indian military in nurturing these startups. By providing support, the military can tap into the

innovative potential of these startups, creating a viable alternative to the traditional Defence PSUs.

Our neighbourhood scan this time is on the Islamic Republic of Iran, a power that has the verve to challenge the entire Western world! Other global issues covered in this Insight are the coming together of China and Russia, out of compulsions peculiar to each other, and the Japanese economy, which seems to have finally broken the invisible shackles holding back its economy for the last three decades.

This month, we platform a very interesting book- Richard Cockett’s “Vienna: How the City of Ideas Created the Modern World” which explores Vienna’s unparalleled influence on Western thought, tracing the city’s intellectual and cultural legacy from the turn of the 20th century through the interwar period.

We hope our esteemed readers will continue supporting us as we strive to further evidence-based research on strategic issues with global resonance.

Sincerely yours

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Maj. Gen. Ajay Sah Chief Information Officer

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SOCIAL MEDIA: A PARADOX

Has social media turned out to be a paradoxical tool reflecting the problems it was meant to address?

SEEKING NEW HORIZONS

Globalisation has played a key role in making the world economy more knowledge-based.

ELECTIONEERING IN THE CYBERSPACE

Politicians are learning the hard way how social media can queer their electoral pitch.

SOCIAL MEDIA: GEOPOLITICAL MEANDERINGS

Growing global pressure on TikTok reflects the security concerns on foreign-based platforms.

THE NEW DIGITAL PANOPTICON?

Surveillance Societies are a growing concern amongst those who refuse to be charmed by the glitter of the digital world.

LEVERAGING STARTUPS FOR FUTURE BATTLE

A lot of Indian companies not only make for India but also the rest of the world; their strength must be leveraged for national security.

TECHNOLOGY

AI EMBEDDED BIO-TECH: FUTURISTIC WEAPONS

Increasing evidence points to a military congruence of AI & Biotech, raising fears of whole-scale casualties in future conflicts.

NEIGHBOURHOOD

A FORMIDABLE OUTLIER?

Iran, once the fulcrum of Eurasia, is now a powerful outlier that regional players tread carefully around.

GEOPOLITICS

AN AXIS IN THE MAKING?

Russia and China: Strategic Partnership or Mariage de Convenance?

RESCUING FROM THE DEPTHS

Can India leverage its rapidly growing deep sea rescue capacity as an Instrument of Diplomacy in the Bay of Bengal?

SURVIVING GEOPOLITICS

Despite unforeseen geopolitical shocks, the global economy has exhibited surprising resilience, but will it sustain indefinitely?

BOUNCING BACK

The stagnant Japanese economy seems to be finally getting buoyant after decades of inert prices, wages, and interest rates.

GEOECONOMICS HEALTH

“SNEEZIN’ SEASON”

Allergic Rhinitis on the Rise: Navigating Diagnosis and Treatment Options

AUTHOR’S COLUMN

VIENNA: HOW THE CITY OF IDEAS CREATED THE MODERN WORLD

SOCIAL MEDIA: A PARADOX

Has social media turned out to be a paradoxical tool reflecting the problems it was meant to address?

MRitika Simon is a Strategic Policy Adviser in Synergia Foundation. She has Masters degree from LSE in Economics & Risk and Society.

illennials are currently the most prominent consumer group. Known for their dynamic lifestyle, they are a challenging target for marketers of all shades. Although their interests are diverse and extravagant, they are cautious about marketing communications directed at them.

Unlike previous generations, millennials regularly use digital platforms to search for, evaluate, and decide on products and services. Consequently, new techniques like storytelling have emerged to attract them to these platforms.

The Internet, arguably one of humanity’s greatest inventions since sliced bread, has created a virtual world that stands as a significant achievement. Social media has undergone a profound transformation since its inception.

Originally designed as entertainment and social interaction platforms, these digital spaces have evolved into powerful tools for gathering and disseminating intelligence and information. This evolution has been driven by advancements in technology, changes in user behaviour, and the increasing role of social media in daily life.

Echo chambers and filter bubbles are powerful metaphors that capture the widespread public concern

The widespread adoption of social media has had a profound influence on multiple facets of society. It has transformed how information is shared and consumed, with user-generated content allowing individuals to create and distribute news and viewpoints in real time. This democratisation of information has empowered people, amplified the voices of marginalised communities and facilitated social change and activism. The transformation of social media from entertainment platforms to hubs of digital intelligence has profound implications for society.

about social media use. The specific worry is that social media algorithms and the tendency to interact with like-minded individuals limit users’ exposure to diverse viewpoints and promote the adoption of more extreme ideological positions. However, empirical evidence on how social media influences information consumption remains inconclusive.

THE RISE OF GIANTS

Social media platforms began as simple tools for connecting people and facilitating communication.

‘‘Grandma, where did people get all their fake news before social media?’’

Over time, they have developed into sophisticated ecosystems that shape how we interact, consume information, and conduct business.

Social media are defined as “a group of internet-based applications that build on the ideological and technological foundations of Web 2.0, allowing the creation and exchange of user-generated content.”

They can be categorised into collaborative projects (e.g., Wikipedia), microblogs/blogs (e.g., Twitter), content communities (e.g., YouTube), social networks (e.g., Facebook), virtual game worlds (e.g., World of Warcraft), and virtual social worlds (e.g., Second Life). Undoubtedly, social media have begun to play a significant role across various sectors, from business to education and public administration to politics.

Facebook, launched in 2004, revolutionised social networking with its user-friendly interface and diverse features, rapidly becoming the dominant platform.

It evolved from a basic networking site into a comprehensive hub for content sharing, media consumption, and advertising. Similarly, YouTube, founded in 2005, transformed video sharing and consumption, becoming the world’s second-largest search engine.

Contrary to popular belief, Facebook did not pioneer social networking sites. That distinction belongs to LinkedIn, founded in 2002 as a primary platform for job seekers and employers.

Today, LinkedIn boasts nearly 700 million active monthly users worldwide and continues to serve as a vital networking site for professionals and corporate businesses.

As social media continued to evolve, new platforms emerged, each offering distinct features and functional-

ities. Twitter pioneered real-time microblogging, Instagram leveraged visual content, and LinkedIn solidified its position as the premier professional networking site.

The subsequent emergence of platforms like Snapchat and TikTok further expanded the social media landscape, with Snapchat focusing on ephemeral content and TikTok specialising in short-form videos.

This diversification has enriched the social media ecosystem, providing users a broader range of options to suit their diverse needs and preferences.

CHANGING TONES & TENORS

About a decade ago, social media was believed to empower citizens, particularly consumers. Information could be quickly disseminated on platforms like Twitter, Facebook, and others.

These platforms offered a more direct and participatory experience of democracy. For instance, during the Arab Spring—a series of anti-government protests, uprisings, and armed rebellions against oppressive regimes across North Africa and the Middle East in late 2010—social media was crucial in facilitating communication and interaction among protest participants.

However, in just ten years, social media—now enhanced by artificial intelligence and big data—transitioned from being a facilitator of democracy to posing a significant threat to it, as highlighted by the Cambridge Analytica scandal involving Facebook.

The scandal revealed the potential of these tools to undermine democratic processes. Cambridge Analytica, a political consultancy, used data from millions of Facebook users to allegedly influence and manipulate public opinion in significant events such as the 2016 U.S. presidential election and the 2018 Brexit referendum.

This incident sparked widespread outrage and a public debate about ethical standards for social media companies, data protection, and the right to privacy.

Social media is increasingly being used to disseminate targeted misinformation, or so-called fake news, to manipulate entire groups of people. Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence and the digital sphere in general are expected to amplify this trend.

In the future, misinformation will not be limited to text alone. Everyone will be able to create videos where they can insert their own words into someone else’s speech, making it appear as if the latter said things they never actually did.

Such deepfakes already exist, akin to Photoshop for audio and video content. Virtually anyone could create videos where people seem to say things they never actually uttered.

WEB INTELLIGENCE

This democratisation of information has empowered people, amplified the voices of marginalised communities and facilitated social change and activism.

The transformation of social media from entertainment platforms to hubs of digital intelligence has profound implications for society.

Web-source intelligence (WEBINT) or OpenSource Intelligence (OSINT) are two terms that are increasingly being used by individuals and state and nonstate entities to gather intelligence.

This is done by using ‘Web Crawlers’ and indexing systems to harvest any piece of information stored on publicly available servers in any language. In fact, expert hackers can also access information from the best-secured servers!

The information can be utilised in varied ways. An attacker can profile the potential target to narrow the search area for possible vulnerabilities or use the intelligence procured to build threat models and develop attack plans without actively engaging the target.

We know very well that targeted cyber-attacks, like conventional kinetic attacks, have military and strategic value and begin with reconnaissance, i.e., passively collecting intelligence without alerting the target. Gathering OSINT about its vulnerabilities from public domains would help strategise its own defences.

CHALLENGES AND HURDLES

While the evolution of social media has exponential-

ly enhanced access to information and democratised content creation, it also presents several challenges.

• Misinformation and Fake News: The ease with which misinformation can spread on these platforms, often at the speed of light, has led to concerns about the accuracy and reliability of the information being shared. This has significant implications for individuals seeking to make informed decisions, as they often face a sea of conflicting information and must rely on their critical thinking skills to discern truth from falsehood.

Social media algorithms play a significant role in the spread of misinformation. These algorithms prioritise content most likely to engage users, often based on their past behaviour and preferences.

This can lead to the amplification of misinformation, as algorithms may prioritise sensational or provocative content, even if it is inaccurate or misleading.

• Filter Bubbles and Echo Chambers: These concepts refer to how algorithms and personalisation techniques can create a self-reinforcing cycle of information exposure, where users are consistently presented with content that aligns with their existing beliefs and perspectives.

This phenomenon has profound implications for how we perceive the world and interact with diverse viewpoints, potentially limiting our exposure to opposing ideas and fostering a lack of understanding and empathy.

• Privacy Concerns: As we share on social media, an increasing amount of data is gathered about us. Privacy issues emerge as our personal information is harvested for tailored advertising and potentially for political influence.

Data breaches have highlighted the susceptibility of our personal data on these platforms, prompting ethical considerations regarding data management practices.

• Threatening Democracy: In just a few years, the initial promise of the Internet and the social media revolution to create a more transparent, democratic, and informed world has deteriorated into an online environment where distinguishing truth from falsehood is challenging.

The alleged Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election is the most cited example. Apparently, Russia manipulated voter outcomes through fake news and misinformation on social media in several other elections, including those in Austria, Belarus, Bul garia, France, Germany, and Italy.

Regarding Brexit, data scientists from the universities of Berkeley and Swansea found that over 156,000 Russian Twitter ac counts were used to dis rupt the vote.

In the last two days of the referendum alone, more than 45,000 tweets from these accounts were posted.

CONCLUSION

Social media’s metamorphosis from simple entertainment platforms to hubs of digital intelligence is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon. To navigate the challenges posed by this evolution, we must adopt a comprehensive approach that involves technological innovation, regulatory frameworks, and ethical considerations.

As information systems extend beyond organisational boundaries to integrate into the broader societal context, it becomes crucial for strategic information systems research to explore the competitive environment of dynamic social systems.

Research on these communities should expand to investigate the interaction between extrinsic and intrinsic rewards, particularly regarding their capacity to nurture and sustain users’ intrinsic motivations.

From an organisational standpoint, research on social media should move beyond the traditional dyadic perspective of the relationship between an online community and a firm and instead focus on reimagining online users as an interconnected ecosystem of stakeholders.

The future of social media intelligence promises deeper insights, real-time analytics, enhanced personalisation, and predictive capabilities. However, it will also require careful consideration of ethical and privacy issues.

As businesses, governments, and organisations continue to harness the power of social media intelligence

with leading-edge technology, it will play a crucial role in shaping strategies, improving customer experiences, and making informed decisions.

Synergia Takeaways

Promotion of Media Literacy and Critical Thinking: To combat the spread of misinformation and the effects of echo chambers, there should be a concerted effort to promote media literacy and critical thinking skills among social media users. Educational initiatives can empower individuals to discern credible information from falsehoods and engage more constructively with diverse viewpoints.

Development of Advanced AI Solutions for Content Moderation: Leveraging AI for content moderation can help manage the vast amount of information on social media platforms. AI systems should be designed to identify and mitigate the spread of harmful content while ensuring transparency and accountability in their operations. Continuous advancements in AI technology can enhance the effectiveness of these systems and contribute to a safer digital environment.

Implementation of Robust Regulatory Frameworks: Comprehensive regulatory frameworks that govern the use of social media platforms are urgently needed. These frameworks should address data privacy, misinformation, and ethical standards for AI applications. Policymakers must collaborate with technology companies and stakeholders to create regulations that protect users without stifling innovation.

SEEKING NEW HORIZONS

Globalisation has played a key role in making the world economy more knowledge-based.

Maj. Gen. Ajay. Sah SM, VSM (Retd), is the CIO at Synergia Foundation, with experience in conflict resolution, peacekeeping and counterterrorism.

Knowledge Economy, the latest buzzword, is in the limelight with the allure of changing some of the most deeply embedded regularities of economic life and dramatically increasing productivity and growth.

The advanced technologies that define the knowledge economy, like AI and robotics, sadly remain exclusive to some economies only, even if the rest of the global community has started grasping its value and the dramatic changes it can foster in our economic and social lives.

A 2014 Asian Development Bank report predicted that India, blessed with its youth bulge and flourishing information and communication technology (ICT) industry, had the potential to become a “leading knowledge-driven economy.” However, its Vice President for Knowledge Management, Bindu N Lohani drew a caveat, “Making this a reality will require many steps like putting in place supportive laws, improving infrastructure, dismantling barriers to trade and investment, upskilling the labour force, boosting research and development spending, and providing innovative financing options for small businesses and entrepreneurs.”

OPENING A NEW VISTA

The management guru Peter Drucker and the economist Fritz Machlup originally invented and analysed

The knowledge economy of the 21st Century is witnessing the lightningfast expansion of knowledge facilitated largely by computerisation, big data analytics, automation, etc. Imagine what will happen when quantum computers become mainstream! The Global North relies on intellectual capital and skills to maintain its economic edge rather than production processes.

the knowledge economy. In the 1950s, they defined the new economy as moving from labour-intensive, heavy-industrial economies to the knowledge economy.

Drucker defined it as “the systematic and purposeful acquisition of information and its systematic application. When the intellectual says knowledge, he usually thinks of something new.

But what matters in the knowledge economy is whether knowledge, old or new, is applicable, e.g. Newtonian physics to the space program. What is relevant is the imagination and skill of whoever applies it, rather than the sophistication or newness of the information”.

Oxford references further define it as using knowledge as the primary tool to produce new economic benefits or maximise existing ones. Unlike industrial economies, knowledge economies focus on intangibles such as information over raw materials and are, therefore,

motivated by the economics of abundance rather than scarcity. Knowledge industries (computing, media, medicine, etc.) demand people of high intellectual calibre; knowledge workers are educated to a level where they can be autonomous and flexible decision-makers and experts in their specialist fields.

The essence of the Knowledge Economy is that production and consumption are based on intellectual capital (the value of a company’s employee knowledge, skills, business training, or any proprietary information that may provide the company with a competitive advantage).

In this technology-driven age, the ability to harness scientific innovations and applied search would be critical in driving the knowledge economy. The knowledge economy lies at the intersection of private entrepreneurship, academia, and government-sponsored research.

The World Bank defines knowledge economies according to four pillars:

• Institutional structures that provide incentives for entrepreneurship and the use of knowledge.

• Availability of skilled labour and a good education system.

• Access to information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructures.

• A vibrant innovation landscape that includes academia, the private sector, and civil society.

While Developing economies are charac terised by their obsession with agricul ture and manufacturing, highly devel oped countries have a larger share of service-related and knowl edge-based economic activi ties like research, technical support and consultation.

The knowledge econ omy of the 21st Century is witnessing the light ning-fast expansion of knowledge facilitated largely by computerisation, big data analytics, automation, etc.

Imagine what will happen when quantum comput ers become mainstream! The Global North relies on intellectual capital and skills to maintain its economic edge rather than production processes.

Knowledge is the base of any “strategy”, which is the base of the economy of any country.

- Tetsuzo Matsumoto Chairman and CEO, SAUFAL Inc.

solutions to manage crops and livestock and expensive technical institutions conducting lucrative courses to students all over the world for a hefty fee.

Human capital, which addresses education and knowledge, becomes a productive asset or a business product to be sold and exported for profit. This economy relies greatly on intellectual capabilities instead of natural resources or physical contributions.

In the knowledge economy, products and services based on intellectual expertise advance technical and scientific fields, encouraging innovation in the economy as a whole.

The complete nature of the working force has changed with the advent of the Knowledge Economy. Unlike the conventional manufacturing sector, where the semiskilled labour force was good enough to do the repetitive assembly line work, now a much higher percentage of highly skilled employees with special knowledge or skills are essential with the capacity to think and analyse data.

GLOBAL KNOWLEDGE LANDSCAPE

In most developed economies, the knowledge economy makes up a large share of all activity. A significant component of its value comprises intangible assets such as the value of its workers’ knowledge, skills, and intellectual property that empowers its in-

In fact, the 1980 Bayh-Dole Act that the U.S. enacted allowed universities, the home of many innovations, to retain the title to their inventions made with federal R&D and to negotiate exclusive licenses to monetise their IPR. This turned knowledge into a credible industry. Globalisation has played a key role in making the world economy more knowledge-based, with each country contributing its

Academic institutions and private corporations are churning out new software and search engines for data and passing on the results of their research to workers in more traditional spheres- health workers using digital data to cure patients with robot-assisted surgeries, farmers employing software applications and digital

These knowledge-based factors create a web of interconnected economic connections where human expertise and trade secrets reign supreme; knowledge becomes the key to economic success! The knowledge economy has turned into a marketplace for the sale of scientific and engineering discoveries, with patents and IPRs being put on sale.

Consequently, research labs and innovators become active economic players, and as funds flow in, their abil-

ity to produce even greater cutting-edge technology expands exponentially.

Experts find it hard to answer how big the knowledge economy is; unlike manufacturing, it is hard to put a price tag on it. Some quarters have made an effort to arrive at a rough estimate by gauging some major components; for example, we know that the U.S. IPR market is worth $ 6.6 trillion (US Chamber of Commerce data).

In fact, IP-intensive high-tech industries account for almost a third of the American GDP. American higher education institutions themselves are worth a mammoth $ 568 billion.

No wonder striking students and faculty all over the U.S. campuses are demanding the turning off of the investment faucet controlled by the incredibly rich higher education sector in order to starve the Israeli war machine from waging war in Gaza.

In Asia, predicted to drive global growth in the 21st Century, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan are some success stories that have successfully transitioned from manufacturing to knowledge-based industries. While China and India have built a few pockets of excellence where knowledge-based growth takes place, they cannot be termed true knowledge economies as yet.

Another interesting characteristic of the knowledge economy is that one type of ‘product’ gets clustered in a particular geographic area—advanced automotive in Germany, ICT in Silicon Valley, semiconductors in Taiwan, and electronics in South Korea. Will we see AI-driven devices, robotics, and quantum computers in China?

The United Nations Development Program’s Global Knowledge Index is a good guide for measuring the front runners in the knowledge economy. In the Global Knowledge Index 2023, India was ranked a low 95, even below Bhutan! The ranking is based on five metric scores -pre-university education, technical and vocational education and training, higher education, R&D and innovation, ICT, economy and the enabling environment.

Evidently, India has to cover a great deal of distance before it can become a real Knowledge Economy. The top ten countries are Switzerland 69.1%, Finland 68.1%, Sweden 68%, Netherlands 67.3%, United States 66.9 %, Denmark 66.7 %, Luxembourg 66.0 %, United Kingdom 65.7 %, Austria 65.3 % and Norway 65.1%.

THE ROAD TO KNOWLEDGE-ECONOMY

In a knowledge economy, value is created through knowledge-intensive activities, relying more on intellectual capital than physical inputs or natural resources.

The key to this transformation is skilled human resources that create the core of a knowledge economy—research, innovation, scientific progress, and tech evolution. For example, South Korea took 15 years to

Democracy, Freedom of Speech, Level of Education, Respect for the Scientist, Rational and Strategic Thinking to deal with all areas of the problems..

- Tetsuzo Matsumoto Chairman and CEO, SAUFAL Inc.

transform into a knowledge economy. The transition from an industrial economy is not easy. For one, the entire workforce would need to be given the requisite skill sets to be optimally productive in a knowledge economy. Therefore, companies must implement extensive and expensive on-the-job training programmes, hire high-value experts from all over the globe to train their core workforce, and even send selected workers to expensive schools overseas.

Local universities must keep pace to provide the facility to train students in the particular skills that the marketplace requires.

While we may be justifiably proud of India’s achievements in science and technology, as the Global Knowledge Index shows, we have miles to go.

We have many challenges: equitable and affordable access to high-quality education, sealing the urban-rural gap and the consequent digital divide, nurturing a culture of innovation and risk-taking, and sustaining the rule of law to protect patents and IPRs. More importantly, academia, industry, and policymakers must abandon their ivory towers and collaborate.

Synergia Takeaways

If India is to make headway into the knowledge economy, it must remember that this economy is fuelled by innovation, research, and high-quality human resources. A competitive advantage in the marketplace depends on the ability to quickly adapt to an ever-changing world through continual innovation in processes and business systems.

If India has to pull millions of its citizens out of the poverty line, development policy should be empowered to use knowledge more effectively to raise the productivity of agriculture, industry, and services and reduce poverty.

India already has the essential attributes to transform into a knowledge-based economy: skilled human capital, a resourceful private sector, macroeconomic stability, English-speaking skills, an established institution of the free market, and global niches in IT. It has to only boldly venture out to grab opportunities and leverage its existing strengths in a planned, calculated manner.

ELECTIONEERING IN THE CYBERSPACE

Politicians are learning the hard way how social media can queer their electoral pitch.

Suchitra Padmanabhan is the Policy Research Associate at Synergia Foundation and has Post Graduate Degree in Social Policy & Planning from the London School of Economics.

Historically, new media has always influenced politics, from Franklin D. Roosevelt’s use of radio to John F. Kennedy’s mastery of television. Today, political candidates invest heavily in social media campaigns.

A DIGITAL ELECTORAL BLITZ

The mostly youthful (and social media savvy) supporters of jailed former prime minister of Pakistan, Mr Imran Khan, sent a resounding message to the military establishment of Pakistan on February 8, giving an unexpected largesse of seats to Imran Khan’s PTI.

This was remarkable considering the host of curbs imposed-jailing all prominent leaders commonly considered ‘electable’, banning public gatherings and, worst, taking away the familiar election symbol of a cricket bat from the party.

Imagine if the Congress Party in India was denied its familiar hand symbol or the BJP its lotus! Beating all odds, PTI emerged as the largest block in the parliament, winning 93 seats out of 264. Of course, their supporters claim that the win would have been a landslide one if the establishment had not coerced the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to change the results in a midnight swoop where Form 47 were changed to catapult clearly losing candidates from the PML and

The rapid dissemination of information and opinions has made social media a potent tool for political mobilisation and activism. Grassroots movements like the Arab Spring, Occupy Wall Street, and Black Lives Matter have harnessed social media to organise protests, share information, and raise awareness about their causes. Often, social media has been crucial in highlighting issues that might have otherwise remained unnoticed.

PPP to victory. Amidst this dramatic turnaround, there is an undivided opinion that the strong performance of PTI-affiliated candidates could not have been possible without PTI’s pervasive use of technology, much of it not cutting-edge, to overcome the obstructionist role of the military-dominated interim government and the compliant ECP.

An analysis of this surprising result carried out by the Atlantic Council (February 14) gives credit firstly to the cultivation of a culture of bottom-up innovation, “in which volunteers and supporters feel empowered to take initiative and contribute ideas. This grassroots movement was fuelled by digital platforms that allowed for the dissemination of information at an unprecedented scale. When the party’s leaders could not find space on mainstream television, they used Twitter Spaces; when physical rallies were not permitted,

they organised virtual ‘jalsas’; and when experts with a leaning toward PTI found no space on mainstream talk shows, they took to YouTube.” Since the jailed Imran Khan had no opportunity to address the millions of his supporters personally, AI was used strategically to generate his voice and image to present a visual image to the people.

Even more innovative was harnessing the nearly 130 million mobile broadband subscriber base to create a web of interconnected supporters. This network was cleverly used to ensure voters in every constituency were educated about the electoral symbol of the PTI candidate. It must be noted that every PTI candidate was forced to fight on an individual symbol, which illiterate voters would find very hard to remember. This personal-to-personal network bypassed traditional media gatekeepers and engaged with the voters directly.

A key enabler was WhatsApp, which was used extensively to disseminate campaign materials, voting instructions, and key messages from Imran Khan. “By mastering the art of social media, PTI consistently generated newsworthy content, ensuring that the party and its leaders remained at the forefront of the news cycle, even when the party and its leaders could not get direct coverage. In addition, PTI got stories into international media, including a piece Khan wrote for the Economist ahead of the elections. In doing so, PTI forced the governing status quo to respond to what the party and its leaders were claiming internationally,” claims the Atlantic Council piece.

DISPLACING MAINSTREAM MEDIA

Social media has transformed how politicians, parties, and interest groups interact with the public. These figures and organisations now frequently use social media platforms to share their messages, engage with supporters, and debate opponents. This direct communication creates a more immediate and personalised connection between politicians and their constituents, bypassing traditional media gatekeepers. During the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the British political consulting firm Cambridge Analytica collected and sold

social media user data to influence voters with targeted ads. The firm gathered extensive demographic information from social media platforms. Then, it used largescale modelling to analyse election trends and predict which advertisements would most effectively appeal to different groups.

As per the New York Times (11 Feb 24), increasingly, technology has been replacing print and electronic media to connect with the voters. In the 2022 South Korean presidential elections, the People Power Party created an AI avatar of its candidate, Mr Yoon Suk Yeol, to interact virtually with voters, using slang and quips to appeal to the younger demography. This trend has also been witnessed in U.S., Canada and New Zealand elections. The Indian Bhojpuri film star turned politician, Manoj Tiwari, used AI deepfake to show himself speaking the Haryanvi language (spoken by a significant segment of his constituency) in the 2020 Delhi assembly elections, which he won. The NYT article quotes Saifuddin Ahmed, a professor at the Nanyang Tech University, Singapore, “The integration of AI, particularly deepfakes, into political campaigning is not a passing trend but a trend that will continue to evolve over time.”

THE DARK SIDE

The influence of social media on public opinion and political discourse is complex and multifaceted, presenting both opportunities and challenges for democratic societies. While social media has opened new avenues for political engagement and expression, it also brings significant challenges and risks. One of the most pressing issues is the spread of misinformation and fake news. The rapid dissemination and vast reach of social

media make it an ideal platform for false information, which can severely impact public opinion and political decision-making.

Social media platforms often use algorithms that prioritise content based on user preferences and engagement, creating echo chambers reinforcing existing beliefs and biases. This can lead to the polarisation of political views and hinder constructive dialogue and debate.

Additionally, social media can foster online harassment and hate speech, negatively affecting political discourse. Politicians, activists, and regular users may face threats, intimidation, and abuse, discouraging them from participating in political discussions and debates.

Social media platforms have also become hotbeds for disinformation and the weaponisation of infor mation against political oppo nents. These platforms’ broad reach makes them perfect for those seeking to manipulate public opinion through false or misleading information.

Disinformation campaigns can take various forms, including fabricated news articles, doc tored images, conspiracy theories, and deepfake videos. These tactics can be used by individuals, political parties, or foreign governments aiming to influence another country’s political landscape. The ease with which disinformation spreads on social media has eroded trust in traditional news sources, making it increasingly difficult for the public to distinguish fact from fiction. When Jordan Peele, an American actor and comedian, made global headlines by transferring his own facial movements to former president Obama’s facial characteristics using deep fake technology, he drove home a powerful message.

These echo chambers contribute to the bandwagon effect. Social media amplifies and reinforces mass media messages without context or fact-checking, influencing public perceptions of candidates and their platforms. This environment allows misinformation to spread rapidly and easily. When all the messages on a person’s social media align with their existing beliefs, and no one in their social circle challenges those messages, misinformation proliferates unchecked.

Unfortunately, antagonistic state actors have exploited social media to influence public opinion in U.S. presidential elections. During the 2016 election, Russia employed tactics such as propaganda, troll farms, and bots to spread false news stories and create disorder.

SABOTAGING DEMOCRACY?

Despite the critical role social media played in Obama’s election, he has since labelled it the biggest threat to U.S. democracy. These comments were made a month before the January 6 Capitol attacks, which were fuelled by disinformation claiming the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump. This falsehood spread widely on social media platforms, deceiving voters and undermining their ability to make informed decisions, thus compromising election outcomes. Researchers have accused Facebook and Twitter of exacerbating political sectarianism and extreme polarisation among the U.S. electorate due to their inadequate response to disinformation.

The weaponisation of information involves using personal or private details against political opponents to discredit or undermine their positions. This can include leaking private conversations, sharing embarrassing photos, or orchestrating targeted harassment campaigns. Social media facilitates these tactics, as the rapid spread of information and online anonymity can lead to swift and devastating consequences for the targeted individual.

MISINFORMATION, ECHO CHAMBERS, AND THE BANDWAGON EFFECT

An echo chamber is an environment that reinforces existing beliefs rather than challenging them. Research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in 2021 indicates that social media’s content curation fosters political echo chambers. Political echo chambers result from social media’s impersonal algorithms, which analyse user engagement and recommend similar content. For example, a platform will likely show a left-leaning user more left-leaning content.

As more people turn to Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp, and other platforms for news and opinions, social media has become a new public arena for discussing—and often bitterly arguing about—political and social issues. Many analysts believe social media is a major factor in the declining health of democracy worldwide. This perception has substantial cross-national differences, and the United States is a clear outlie. As per the Pew Research Centre (06 Dec 2022), only 34% of U.S. adults think social media has been good for democracy, while 64% believe it has had a negative impact. Even in countries where social media’s impact is viewed positively, most people acknowledge its pernicious effects, particularly in terms of manipulation and division.

In addition to being the most negative about social media’s influence on democracy, Americans are consistently among the most critical in their assessments of specific ways social media has affected politics and society. For instance, 79% in the U.S. believe Internet and social media access has divided people more politically.

THE INDIAN POLITICAL SCENE

Existing scholarship on the potential impact of the Internet on party campaign strategy in India is divided into two main schools of thought. The first, the innovation hypothesis, adopts an optimistic view, suggesting that the Internet can potentially reform politics. This theory posits that as internet usage becomes more widespread, party campaigns on social media will eventually

replace traditional, in-person campaigning. Proponents of this hypothesis anticipate that digital technologies will fundamentally transform campaign politics, rendering physical campaigning obsolete. Based on the logic of technological determinism, this prediction implies that a party could run a successful campaign entirely online with minimal ground presence.

On the other hand, the normalisation hypothesis argues that, despite increasing Internet use, a party’s online campaigns will complement rather than replace traditional, in-person campaign activities. According to this logic, in-person campaigning will remain central to party strategy, resulting in “politics as usual” even in the digital age. This theory suggests that in the future, parties may simply live-stream their in-person campaign events on social media platforms.

However, evidence from recent election campaigns in India does not neatly align with either of these hypotheses. Online party campaigns have not replaced in-person party campaigns; traditional, in-person party campaigns are not merely replicated on social media platforms.

In modern Indian political campaigns, parties strategically leverage content complementarity—a two-way relationship between online and in-person campaigning. Social media creates a perpetual demand for parties to produce online content. In-person campaign activities, especially campaign rallies, are valuable content sources. Scholars have found that rallies serve various purposes, such as resolving asymmetric information within a party and facilitating clientelistic exchanges between parties and voters.

Additionally, rallies provide parties with material for online content. This dual purpose enhances the significance of rallies today. Moreover, the demand for online content also influences how parties conduct mass campaign rallies.

With India’s smartphone-based internet penetration estimated at a whopping 74.97 per cent (Statista 2024) of the entire population base, it is of little surprise that social media and messaging have gained significant influence in Indian electoral politics. Yet, they do not overshadow the importance of in-person campaigning. Despite the cost savings involved, major Indian political parties still organise mass in-person campaign rallies during election seasons.

The continued prevalence of mass campaign rallies in the digital age raises a broader question about modern campaigning in India. Why do in-person mass campaign rallies—expensive, labour-intensive, and time-consuming—persist when cheaper methods for conducting more targeted outreach online are available? Specifically, how do internet-based communication technologies, including social media, shape party campaigns in India today? An analysis of parties’ self-reported campaign expenditures during the 2014 and 2019 parliamentary elections reveals that both the BJP and the Congress Party allocated between one-quarter and

one-third of their total campaign expenditure to in-person campaigning, with a significant portion devoted to rallies. Several powerful social media influencers have risen whose role in the recent Indian elections has been hotly contested. One such player is Dhruv Rathee, who is active in the entire repertoire of the social media landscape.

As per Al Jazeera (24 May 24), WhatsApp has over 400 million Indian subscribers and 460 million on YouTube, making India YouTube’s biggest market. Al Jazeera further claims, “Studies show that more Indians trust news they get on YouTube and WhatsApp than what they source from mainstream news channels, Rathee has emerged as a formidable digital force. Polls suggest that Modi’s popularity remains high. But they also reveal that inflation and joblessness, issues of the kind that Rathee hammers on about in his shows, worry Indians the most[..]. On YouTube, Rathee has more than 20 million subscribers, nearly four times the BJP channel’s count. The Congress, the principal opposition party, has a little more than 5 million YouTube subscribers, while its biggest leader, Rahul Gandhi, has 6 million.” Mr Modi has over 23 million YouTube subscribers.

Elvish Yadav, another popular YouTuber and social media influencer, challenges the credibility of Dhruv Rathee, calling him “a political party member (AAP) waging anti-India propaganda” at the behest of “anti-India NGOs and foreign entities.”

Individuals, governments, and platform providers must confront potential risks and strive for a more wholesome and inclusive online space for political dialogue. Initiatives promoting digital literacy, fostering civil discourse, and combating misinformation can leverage social media to enrich democratic participation and cultivate a more knowledgeable and dynamic public sphere.

Both disinformation and the weaponisation of information present substantial threats to the democratic process, undermining public trust in institutions and fostering a toxic atmosphere for political discourse. To address these risks, social media platforms must assume accountability for the content they host, while users must maintain vigilance and scepticism towards the information they encounter online.

Policymakers must account for social media’s impact and implement measures to counter influencers’ dissemination of misinformation. Potential strategies could involve collaborating with social media platforms and employing artificial intelligence tools to authenticate content and flag misleading posts. But all stakeholders must somehow ensure that this does not impinge upon a citizen’s most basic right to freedom of expression.

Synergia Takeaways

SOCIAL MEDIA: GEOPOLITICAL MEANDERINGS

Growing global pressure on TikTok reflects the security concerns on foreign-based platforms.

Tiktok! Love it, hate it, distrust it, or addicted to it; as of 2023, TikTok now has over 113.2 million users in the U.S. alone, opens a new window. You could say it’s popular,” wrote blogger Sarahg on the portal of Harris County Public Library, Texas, USA (12 November 23). The dilemma that engulfs most governments who have to deal with its popularity is amply reflected by this blog!

As per the Skyquest website, Online Video Platforms market size was valued at USD 7.21 billion in 2019 and is poised to grow from USD 8.46 billion in 2023 to USD 30.05 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 17.19% in the forecast period (2024-2031).

Online video sites are free or paid, and users can host, stream live, and broadcast their videos. Needless to say, with the universal penetration of low-cost smartphones globally, a conducive environment for the market to flourish has been created.

The rapid growth of the commercial video platform has led to its bifurcation into various segments. For example, purely based on applications, the market is divided into video sharing, commercial video platforms, and others.

If we take end users, the market can be segmented into content creators, brands enterprises and individuals. Going by type, it is divided into video hosting, mobile videos, live streaming, video analytics and video content management.

The actions against TikTok also have broader implications for the competitive landscape of social media. Restrictions on TikTok could create opportunities for rival platforms like Instagram, Snapchat, and YouTube to capture its market share. Additionally, the regulatory scrutiny faced by TikTok may set a precedent for how other social media platforms are treated, particularly those with ties to non-Western countries.

THE RISE OF ONLINE PLATFORMS

The explosive burst of the digital population across the globe has kick-started the craze for social media, and the number of subscribers each social media giant has on its site indicates their popularity, profitability and, more importantly, influence. As per Statista, over 70 per cent of adults in Nigeria, Thailand, Malaysia and South Africa, to name just a few, are dependent upon social media to access news. Therefore, not surprisingly, as per Statista, on an average, subscribers devoted 151 minutes per day on social media.

The biggest name in the industry is Meta Platforms Inc., which runs its ‘Family of Apps’ comprising Facebook, Instagram, Messenger and WhatsApp. In 2022, this company earned over $116 billion in revenue, with Facebook alone hitting over three billion monthly active users in 2023.

“My grandkids told me I should watch Tik Tok.”

TikTok was launched in 2017 and soon became a major player in the mainstream social media scene. By 2023, it had over one billion monthly active users with mostly a youthful profile with a proclivity to recording lip-syncing videos and recording dances. The other players are WeChat (1,3 billion), Telegram (900 million), Snapchat (800 million), Twitter (600 million) and Pinterest (498 million).

However, TikTok, owned by Chinese tech company ByteDance, has been under intense scrutiny for some time now in many countries, with some even banning it.

The platform, known for its vast user base and viral content, is at the centre of a geopolitical tug-of-war, reflecting broader concerns about data security, privacy, and the influence of Chinese technology.

Special hostility is reserved for TikTok in the U.S., where its detractors accuse it of being a “potential vector for foreign influence.” In authoritarian China, it is easy for the CCP to exert pressure on the parent company.

Since 2016, social media has become an important factor in America’s daily life, and its politics have been heavily influenced by it. It is widely claimed that ‘past elections have been won and lost on YouTube or Facebook. Considering the simmering cold war between the U.S. and China, the platform is apparently caught in the eye of a gathering geopolitical storm, reflecting broader concerns about data security, privacy, and the influence of Chinese technology.

A GLOBAL CAMPAIGN

The opposition to TikTok is surprisingly shared by a host of Western countries and those that feel threatened by the growing power of Beijing.

As mentioned above, the United States has been at the forefront of efforts to limit TikTok’s influence. The

U.S. government has raised significant concerns about the app’s potential to share user data with the Chinese government, posing a national security risk. This led to former President Donald Trump issuing an executive order to ban the app unless it was sold to an American company.

Although this order was later rescinded by President Joe Biden, the U.S. Congress has continued to push for measures that would force ByteDance to divest its ownership of TikTok. Recently, legislation was passed that requires ByteDance to sell the platform within nine months or face a nationwide ban.

The E.U. has taken a somewhat different approach, focusing on regulatory frameworks to address the issues posed by TikTok and similar platforms.

The European Commission has implemented the Digital Services Act (DSA), which sets stringent rules for online platforms regarding content moderation, data protection, and user safety.

As part of these efforts, the E.U. recently forced TikTok to suspend a feature in its TikTok Lite app that rewarded users for engagement, citing concerns about its potential to encourage addictive behaviour among children.

Additionally, several E.U. institutions, including the European Parliament, the European Commission, and the E.U. Council, have banned TikTok on staff devices due to cybersecurity concerns.

The U.K. has also acted to mitigate the risks associated with TikTok. The government banned the app on official devices, citing potential security threats highlighted by the National Cyber Security Centre.

This move is part of a broader trend in the U.K. to scrutinise Chinese technology, including previous actions against Huawei.

Australia, Belgium, Canada, and New Zealand have banned TikTok from federal government-owned devices due to security and privacy risks. Norway, normally a very liberal and open state, joined the ban on work devices following security warnings from the Justice Ministry. France has gone a step forward and banned all “recreational” apps, including TikTok, on the work phones of civil servants.

The Indian case is particularly interesting. TikTok took just a few years to gather a gigantic base of faithful users in India of over 200 million. It was especially attractive to Indians as its algorithm was much more localised to Indian content than the formulas used by the American giants.

But the bloody hand-to-hand fighting in the high Himalayas between Indian and Chinese soldiers, leading to scores of deaths, spurred the Indian Government to ban TikTok and 58 other Chinese apps. The measure was described as a matter of “data security and safeguarding the privacy” of Indian citizens from “elements hostile to national security and defence of India.”

Indian tech companies made a vain attempt to fill the vacuum but failed. As per the New York Times (22 March 24), American tech giants, “with their deeper pockets and expanding global audiences, came to dominate India.

The country is now the biggest market for both YouTube (almost 500 million monthly users) and Instagram (362 million), with roughly twice as many users as either has in the United States, though they earn far less revenue per consumer.”

As per the NYT article, the possibility that Chinese consumer technology might pose a risk to India’s sovereignty had been circulating in the Indian national security circles for some time, even before the Galwan incident occurred. Indian officials had expressed concern that Chinese-owned apps could provide Beijing with a potent messaging tool within India’s raucous media environment.

EUROPE’S STRATEGY

Social media is a reality and a fact of daily life that no government can ignore. The European Union’s approach to regulating social media differs significantly from the more drastic measures seen in the United States and India.

Rather than pursuing an outright ban, the E.U. has opted to leverage regulatory mechanisms to address specific issues related to the platform. This strategy is exemplified by implementing the Digital Services Act (DSA), which imposes comprehensive obligations on platforms like TikTok to ensure user safety and data protection.

The DSA is a landmark regulatory framework aimed at creating a safer and more accountable online environment within the E.U. Key provisions of the DSA include:

• Content Moderation: Platforms must implement measures to prevent disseminating illegal content and misinformation.

• Transparency Requirements: Platforms are required to disclose their algorithms and data management practices.

• User Protection: Enhanced safeguards for vulnerable users, including minors, against harmful content and addictive design features.

Under the DSA, the European Commission has the authority to take action against platforms that fail to comply with these regulations. The suspension of TikTok Lite’s reward feature is a notable example of the E.U.’s proactive stance in enforcing these rules.

While the DSA addresses a broad range of online safety concerns, national security and data privacy remain critical issues.

European countries have expressed fears that the Chinese government could use TikTok as a tool for espionage. This concern is rooted in the Chinese National Intelligence Law, which requires Chinese companies to assist in intelligence gathering if requested by the government.

In response, several E.U. member states have taken unilateral actions to limit TikTok’s presence on government devices. These measures reflect a growing consensus within the E.U. about protecting sensitive data from potential foreign surveillance.

IN ITS DEFENCE

To stay alive in this highly competitive and lucrative market, other tech companies are looking at the strategy fielded by beleaguered TikTok. The way the wind is blowing, even Western online video platforms may find themselves in governments’ crosshairs.

As its initial response, TikTok has consistently denied allegations that it shares user data with the Chinese government, asserting that it stores user data in the United States and Singapore.

When faced with a hostile Congress panel in March this year, TikTok put forward its moderate CEO, Shou Zi Chew, a citizen of Singapore who repeatedly emphasised his citizenship and his military service in the island nation, a close Western ally.

Under intense grilling lasting over five hours, Chew denied that the app leaked data with the CCP. He claimed the company was building a firewall to ‘seal off protected U.S. user data from unauthorised foreign access.’ “The bottom line is this: American data stored on

American soil, by an American company, overseen by American personnel,” Chew said as quoted by Reuters. American lawmakers did not appear convinced.

The company emphasises its robust security measures to protect user privacy, aiming to reassure both users and regulators about the integrity of its data management practices.

TikTok has increased transparency regarding its algorithms to address concerns about potential manipulation of user behaviour.

This includes disclosing how its algorithms work and managing data, particularly as part of its compliance with the Digital Services Act (DSA). TikTok aims to build trust and demonstrate its commitment to fair and ethical practices by providing more insight into its internal processes.

In addition, TikTok has implemented data localisation measures to enhance data security and privacy. By moving some of its data storage to the United States and Singapore, the platform aims to mitigate fears about the safety of user data and prevent unauthorised access.

These steps are part of a broader strategy to align with international data protection standards and reassure users that their information is secure.

ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company, has explored restructuring its ownership to appease regulatory authorities. This includes potential divestment of TikTok or implementing stringent data localisation measures. Such actions address regulatory concerns and ensure that TikTok’s operations comply with local and international laws.

Engagement with regulatory bodies has also been a critical aspect of TikTok’s response. The company has actively communicated with entities like the European Commission to address concerns and ensure compliance with regulatory frameworks such as the DSA.

This proactive approach aims to demonstrate TikTok’s willingness to cooperate with authorities and adapt its practices to meet regulatory expectations.

In response to specific regulatory concerns, TikTok has also suspended certain features. For example, the platform halted the reward system in TikTok Lite after regulators raised issues about its potential to encourage addictive behaviour among children.

This suspension reflects TikTok’s commitment to addressing regulatory feedback and making necessary adjustments to its platform to protect user well-being.

IMPACT ON THE SOCIAL MEDIA MARKET

Hopefully, the TikTok controversy should be a lesson to other giants in the genre. Bans can be infectious and could ruin the entire industry in the blink of an eye. With billions sunk in hardware, software, global mar-

keting and operations, none of the big tech companies can afford such a situation.

Another critical issue is the transparency of TikTok’s algorithms. The platform’s powerful recommendation engine, which drives user engagement by serving personalised content, has come under scrutiny for its potential to manipulate user behaviour.

There are fears that the algorithm could be used to spread misinformation or promote content that aligns with specific political agendas.

The DSA’s requirement for platforms to disclose their algorithms aims to address these concerns. By increasing transparency, regulators hope to hold platforms accountable for their content curation practices and mitigate the risks of algorithmic manipulation.

The cybersecurity risks associated with TikTok extend beyond data privacy. Security experts warn that the app could be exploited for espionage or cyberattacks. For example, the app’s access to device information and its ability to collect extensive user data could provide a potential vector for cyber intrusions.

Synergia Takeaways

The global actions against TikTok (while ignoring Western platforms) reflect a complex interplay of security concerns, geopolitical dynamics, and regulatory challenges.

The E.U. approach appears more prudent as it opts for stringent measures, including potential bans on regulatory bias, leveraging frameworks like the Digital Services Act to address specific issues related to social media platforms. The DSA would be applicable across the social media industry without exceptions.

Critical questions about data privacy, algorithmic transparency, and cybersecurity are at the heart of the debate, which continues to shape the discourse around social media and its role in the global digital landscape. As TikTok navigates these challenges, its ability to address regulatory concerns and demonstrate a commitment to user safety and data protection will be crucial in determining the future of this mode of media.

THE NEW DIGITAL PANOPTICON?

Surveillance Societies are a growing concern amongst those who refuse to be charmed by the glitter of the digital world.

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RESEARCH TEAM

Our online and offline worlds have bled into each other to blur the boundaries. AI surveillance technology is rapidly gaining popularity in over 75 of 176 countries worldwide, including face recognition systems, smart policing, and smart city platforms. Online social networks and media platforms are adopted for user profiling and behaviour prediction.

The “Panopticon” metaphor best illustrates unilateral and vertical monitoring. Internet platforms and applications enable multilevel and latent surveillance, creating new power dynamics and asymmetries that endanger individual rights. Users participating in social networking activities are subject to ongoing, multilateral surveillance, much like fish in a vast, transparent ocean where every move is visible and analysed.

As Shoshana Zuboff, American author, professor, social psychologist, philosopher, and scholar, aptly states, “Surveillance capitalism unilaterally claims human experience as free raw material for translation into behavioural data.”

This pervasive monitoring reshapes societal norms and erodes personal privacy, underscoring the urgent need for robust safeguards.

Both “traditional” and social panopticism result from the deliberate or negligent voluntary disclosure of private information to an unidentified audience.

Corporations are significantly impacting privacy by quietly learning about our habits and preferences. Websites and email services are already recording our clicks, and the retail industry is incorporating radiofrequency identification tags into products to improve shipping, stocking, and shelving. These tags could offer new conveniences, such as washing machines recognising clothing types and refrigerator warnings. Retail stores could also profile customers based on clothing purchases, adjusting advertising and pricing policies.

THE PANOPTICON

Jeremy Bentham, an English philosopher, jurist, and social reformer regarded as the founder of modern utilitarianism, designed the Panopticon in 1785, a circular prison with a single guard watching inmates from a tower. The tower’s brilliant light prevents captives from seeing it, causing them to regulate their behaviour.

Paul-Michel Foucault, a French historian of ideas and philosopher, called Panopticon “a powerful tool of social control because it operates through self-regulation. Individuals who are aware that they might

be under surveillance are more likely to regulate their behaviour to conform to societal norms, even without explicit enforcement.” Foucault used the term for contemporary surveillance. In Foucault’s opinion, the Panopticon was like being on a stage with an ever-present audience. Every action, gesture, and word is scrutinised, pushing individuals to conform to societal expectations, much like the prisoners in Bentham’s Panopticon, who adjust their behaviour under the relentless, invisible watch of the guard.

Due to people’s inability to discern whether they are under surveillance, the Panopticon design ensures that people actively police themselves for fear of punishment, leading to positive behaviour. This results in a persistent fear of being discovered. According to a 2023 survey, 85 per cent of people report altering their online behaviour due to concerns about being monitored. Indeed, there is a growing consensus that new surveillance models should take their place and that Foucault, and the Panopticon have had their day. As Prof David Lyon, a Scottish sociologist who directed the Surveillance Studies Centre at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ontario, observes, “The metaphor of the Panopticon may no longer serve us well in an era of distributed and networked forms of surveillance, where the watchers are also being watched.”

This evolving landscape demands fresh perspectives to address the complex dynamics of modern surveillance.

CORPORATE SURVEILLANCE

While it is well acknowledged that police states like the Nazis, and to an extent the Soviet system, have a propensity for mass surveillance to secure their regimes under the garb of national security, modern corporations are taking a leaf out of their playbook too.

This is akin to living in a smart house that knows your routines and preferences better than you do, constantly collecting data to anticipate your needs and subtly influencing your choices and behaviours. This invasion of privacy by corporations underscores the need for individual awareness and action to protect personal data.

SAFETY OF 24 X 7 SURVEILLANCE

Kevin Kelly, co-founder of Wired magazine, once said, “We are moving from a world where the big eat the small to a world where the fast eat the slow.” As tech-

nology advances, less and less will escape the attention of sophisticated machines, and they may also protect cities from cataclysm. However, we are not there yet.

Huge funds are being expended to convert cities into smart cities, and many Indian cities proudly display this epitaph. Cities leverage AI and machine learning to analyse surveillance data to predict crime and improve security. This technology helps law enforcement agencies identify patterns, correlations, and trends in crime and terrorism. The ultimate goal is to create agile security systems that detect crime networks and suspicious activity, contributing to the justice system’s effectiveness. AI is also used for urban tolling, emission zones, and health crisis prevention, such as monitoring the metro system for face masks.

At an aquatic centre in Ancenis, France, an 18-yearold swimmer named Jean-François LeRoy nearly drowned in a pool. Nine months earlier, the centre had installed a state-of-the-art electronic surveillance system called Poseidon, which can detect distressed swimming and alert lifeguards. Poseidon can detect blurry reflections, shadows, and real swimmers, identifying potential problems. Thanks to Poseidon’s alert, lifeguards immediately rescued LeRoy, who was released with no permanent damage. The French mathematicians who developed Poseidon saved LeRoy’s life.

As technology advances, machines like Poseidon will redefine our lives, recognising faces and fingerprints and monitoring various aspects of our lives. They could also monitor our calorie intake, energy output, air quality, and even our bloodstream molecules. This scenario is akin to living with an omnipresent guardian angel who is always vigilant, watching over us and ensuring our safety in countless ways.

Surveillance systems aim to detect serious threats while minimising false positives. One creative challenge is integrating surveillance tools into infrastructure, such as cranes, highway exits, helicopters, and pilot boats. Citizen smart cards are being introduced in Europe and Asia, acting as official national IDs and storing personal medical history, social security information, and other essentials. These cards could connect consumer communication and citizen surveillance, merging consumer and government surveillance. The U.S. Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network uses artificial intelligence algorithms to search the internet and confidential crime databases. At the same time, COPLINK, a suite of commercial software tools, helps law enforcement agencies connect all the dots in complex investigations.

AN ORWELLIAN REALITY?

State surveillance is not inherently unlawful, as it serves legitimate purposes like preventing terrorism and resolving problematic cases. However, technology has transformed the nature of surveillance, with the internet increasing the amount of transactional data available about individuals, such as email and location identification. Behind the web of cams promising the

citizen safety from crime, there is a darker intent in many cases.

Smart, small, cheap, and communicative machines mark the new digital age. It’s like living in a city where every lamppost is a detective, every traffic light is a health inspector, and every garbage can is a crime analyst—keeping us safe while keeping an eye on us.

AI adoption for security has surged, enhancing police services and community trust. Smart solutions like biometrics, facial recognition, cameras, and video surveillance systems are being used. A study found that AI could reduce crime by 30-40% and emergency response times by 20-35 per cent. Cities invest in real-time crime mapping, crowd management, and gunshot detection— however, only 8 per cent use data-driven policing. We are, without question, headed into a world in which— mostly by our choice—the minute details of our bodies, lives and homes will be routinely tracked and shared.

As we enter this world, we will routinely track and share our details, potentially leading to increased safety and potential abuse. This increased exposure will require a nuanced definition of privacy and new tools to navigate its components. It’s vital for us, as stakeholders, to be vigilant and proactive in addressing these privacy concerns, ensuring that the benefits of these technologies are not outweighed by their potential risks. Technologists are increasingly aiming to penetrate physical realms and gain access to previously unexamined information. So, while it’s great that your refrigerator might remind you to buy milk, it’s also unnerving if it suggests you lay off the cookies. We have the power to shape the future of AI surveillance, and we must use it responsibly.

Cities are using AI for surveillance and predictive policing despite concerns about privacy and human rights. The ethics of AI use and its impact on communities and cities are being debated, with concerns about privacy, job growth, and the future of work. These discussions are intertwined with societal, ethical, and geo-

political dimensions. Electronic surveillance is increasing, with ID checks, surveillance cameras, body scans, fingerprint databases, email sifters, and mobile phone interceptors being used to monitor our surroundings. Domestic gadgets like nanny cams and E-ZPass contribute to this ever-examined landscape of total surveillance. Whether the watcher is the US National Security Agency, the phone company or the teenager next door, our increased exposure will also require new and broader vigilance.

Over four million CCTV cameras are deployed across the UK, one for every 15 people. The average visitor to London is captured 300 times in a single day. The effectiveness of these cameras is unclear, but the public seems to approve of them. The British government is now moving ahead with an ambitious vehicle surveillance system designed to reduce serious and volume crime by denying criminals the use of the roads. Public video systems are prevalent in various cities, including Melbourne, Sydney, Vienna, Berlin, Brussels, Dublin, Baltimore, Palm Springs, and Monaco. Privacy advocates are concerned about the lack of protest or genuine public debate about the pros and cons of these cameras, as they are now present in public spaces without any real debate.

The USA and Britain are moving towards increased surveillance, as demonstrated at the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, Utah. Agents from various agencies ran an unprecedented security operation, including the FBI, Federal Aviation Authority, U.S. Secret Service, State Department, and Utah National Guard.

The operation involved a digital video system that processed input from multiple cameras, archived everything for future review, and distributed customised portions of the video stream to authorised computers. The surveillance aimed to deter potential terrorists, but most of the watching was invisible. The U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft declared this would set a new standard. Similar attitudes towards heightened surveillance are evident in Virginia Beach, VA, where

police have installed facial-recognition systems; Washington, DC, where the National Park Service is installing surveillance cameras around federal monuments; and Woodrow Wilson High School in Woodrow Wilson, VA, replacing morning roll calls with electronic ID-recognition systems.

Singapore uses AI in police, border security, and homeland security applications to enhance security, while the Immigration & Checkpoints Authority uses iris scanning. The government plans to use wearable technology for information gathering. Singapore aims to be a leader in AI solutions by 2030.

Japan’s police force has implemented AI-enabled predictive policing for the Tokyo Olympics. The system flourishes with a deep learning algorithm to foresee criminal actions based on crime data. It also has access to police force statistics and other crime details. The Kanagawa police are studying the feasibility of this system, collaborating with the private sector and a panel to advise on its use.

Brazil implemented measures to predict crime and reduce crime rates. In 2016, the Igarapé Institute and Via Science developed the CrimeRadar app, a crime prediction platform that assesses crime frequency across the metropolitan region. The app has helped reduce crime by 30-40%, making crime data more accessible and transparent.

Ahmedabad has become the first Indian city to implement an AI-linked surveillance system, utilising live drone footage and camera feeds from traffic signals and buses. The system offers a six-camera view of the city, allowing real-time monitoring and addressing issues such as traffic violations and unidentified activities. The AI-enabled command and control centre in Paldi oversees 460 square kilometres of Ahmedabad and its surroundings. The system has been instrumental in identifying and resolving issues such as illegal parking, stalls, and garbage accumulation. The AI control room has also helped manage stray animals and promptly responded to incidents.

AUGMENTED REALITY AND SURVEILLANCE

Augmented reality (AR) has become a crucial technology in surveillance, adding to the user’s perception of their environment. AR systems use Simultaneous Localisation and Mapping (SLAM) techniques to track user movements, harvesting observational data from cameras, sonar, lidar, structured light, and time-offlight sensors. This data updates a continuously evolving model of the user’s spatial environment, making AR more advanced than current technologies. AR glasses are set to transform users into data-gathering minions for Facebook, mapping the world and its people, pets and possessions. This intensive surveillance raises questions about who will be watching and why. It’s essential to consider whether we welcome this pervasive monitoring, trust AR providers, and how they can earn our trust. It’s within our power to decide when to allow such surveillance.

LEGAL SCRUTINY

Surveillance can significantly impact an individual’s right to privacy and freedom of association and expression. Three principles must be considered to assess the lawfulness of a surveillance action: whether domestic law allows surveillance, whether the action meets the “necessity and proportionality” international legal standard, and whether the interests justifying the action are legitimate.

The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) warns that such restrictions may unjustifiably or arbitrarily restrict citizens’ rights to freedom of opinion and expression.

The legal standards required to carry out surveillance legitimately are high, and governments often need help to meet them. AI surveillance exacerbates these conditions, making it more likely that democratic and authoritarian governments may carry out surveillance that contravenes international human rights standards. Technological advancements have reduced the costs of technology and data storage, allowing for simultaneous, invasive, targeted, and broad-scale surveillance.

There have been several cases in the UK where activists have approached the court against Live Facial Recognition (LFR) used by police as it infringes the privacy rights of people walking in the streets where the technology is in use. More importantly, there were specific cases of racial bias in the system.

Synergia Takeaways

Due to their complexity, ethical AI systems for surveillance and predictive policing are challenging to design. Cities must consider using technology for convenience but not at the expense of the basic rights of their citizens.

Governments and several corporations’ deliberate concealment of monitoring capabilities poses a barrier to data collection efforts. Because of this, it is challenging to pinpoint the degree to which states use algorithms to further their surveillance goals or to ascertain whether the employment of AI is more hypothetical than actual.

Mass surveillance infringes on human rights, undermines our way of life, and may not prevent other threats like military, paramilitary, or terrorist attacks. The potential loss of privacy and liberty is a price to be borne for excessive surveillance. Are citizens prepared for such a sacrifice?

LEVERAGING STARTUPS FOR FUTURE BATTLE

A lot of Indian companies not only make for India but also the rest of the world; their strength must be leveraged for national security.

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RESEARCH TEAM

The military has always been the early adopter of technology. The birth of the internet, the computing environment, and even Silicon Valley, to a large extent, is thanks to the immense power of the defence needs of big powers like the U.S.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict and even the preceding Armenia-Azerbaijan conflicts have shown the asymmetric advantages of what drones could offer to the defence forces.

It’s a paradigm shift in which drone technology or aerial systems have become more affordable and nimbler and have produced different capabilities than what the traditional defence forces and systems that are present have acquired over the last several decades.

Four main pillars are crucial for defence capabilities for those nations that aspire for great power status, a world in which India also wants to be one.

First is the increasing range at which combat engagements will take place. Second, there is a need to grant greater autonomy at all levels of command- tactical, operational, and strategic.

Third, real-time information will be crucial to making quick and correct decisions. Lastly, high precision will be needed to make every strike count with little or no collateral damage.

Startups taking up financially risky ventures in the defence sector face many challenges. A major plea is that when startups develop niche technology products, the end user should have a better understanding of his own requirements, including some trade-offs so that the startups can progress forward to build the right product. In most cases, due to confused signals from the user and changing demands, the product’s development cycle goes awry and drifts into costly time delays. In this process, less robust startups wither away, and their innovations are lost and picked up by bigger companies at a pittance.

A COLLABORATIVE STRATEGY

As per Professor Murthy HSN, Professor and Head of Aerospace Engineering, IIT Madras, the pace of technological change is asymmetric. However, it is very difficult for rigid organisations like the armed forces to change within its own organisation. To meet the demands of a modern battlefield, militaries must take technology and apply it to the existing doctrines of war. They must evaluate the risks, threats and opportunities

they face and demand technologies that can achieve the military objectives. There are many pillars of technology development. First is academia, which brings in scientific knowledge.

Then, there are national labs that use existing scientific knowledge developed by academia and probably partly by national labs to develop technology. This technology is then picked up by industry, which does some engineering to increase efficiency. And then there are marketing experts and suppliers. At the bottom of the pyramid are the end users who have experiential knowledge. In all this, the flourishing startup ecosystem in India can play a vital role.

Mr Parithi Govindaraju, Founder and CEO of Okulo Aerospace and producers of tactical drones, claims that in such a disruptive battlespace, there is a paradigm shift in which drone technology or aerial systems have become nimbler and affordable with different capabilities than what the traditional defence forces and systems that are present have acquired over the last several decades.

“As a company, we develop solutions that enable decision-makers in the defence forces to get the right information at the right time,” Govindaraju claims. His company is developing long-endurance drone systems that can persistently obtain information about areas of interest and relate them to the appropriate decision maker for any sort of decision-making.

“We have raised the bar in terms of what current drone solutions can do. We develop solutions that fly for extended periods, often 3 to 4 times better than existing drone solutions. Because of that, we are enabling what’s called persistent monitoring. With drones, you get situational awareness, maybe for a short period. Maybe for a particular small area of interest, but with

these new capabilities, decision-makers in the defence forces can have eyes and ears on the ground always at all points in time,” he says.

Satellites can also perform this task, provided there is a constellation or satellites in a geospatial orbit. However, space-based systems are expensive. Homegrown technology is, therefore, required to bridge this gap and develop solutions that offer high-resolution data capture, be it imagery or sensor data.

CHALLENGES

In most cases, due to confused signals from the user and changing demands, the product’s development cycle goes awry and drifts into costly time delays. In this process, less robust startups wither away, and their innovations are lost and picked up by bigger companies at a pittance.

The user requirements or GSQR (General Staff Qualitative Requirement), termed in military parlance, tend to drift with every new technology the user reads about in Western tech glossy magazines or Jane’s Weekly.

The innovator is expected to replicate these solutions in his product, leading to conflicting technical requirements. Neither side is willing to agree to a tradeoff, and in the ensuing standoff, the operational efficacy is the only victim. Says Govindaraju, “I would request

a faster feedback cycle. A startup life cycle is a very short-1 or 2 years. Often with the defence, the feedback for product development is several months, and the procurement cycle is even longer.”

On its part, the Defence Forces have initiated many corrective actions, including the Defence India Startup Challenges aimed at supporting Startups/MSMEs/ Innovators to create prototypes and/or commercialise products/solutions in the area of National Defence and Security.

Documents like the Technology Capability Roadmap, released every few years, will also help guide startups on the projects that need to be developed.

Capital is another major roadblock. While the IDEX grants may partly assist in developing technology demonstrators, serial production is quite another thing. Defence orders must cater for adequate funds to see through the technology demonstration phase and the limited series production with some confirmed orders to keep the flow of capital ongoing as the startup accelerates the development/ production phase. This would see the startup through only the next few years. The real challenge lies in the series production, which would require substantial financial capital raised through sources other than the military, including healthy export orders.

Aabhay Aradhya, CEO of Vaydyn Technologies that, designs and manufactures all the electronic components that go into autonomous systems, all the way from drones to all kinds of autonomy, says, “The Regional Technology Nodes established by the Army have been critical to give us the time and feedback that has been necessary to mature our products. But although it’s been a very warm handshake, as startups, we want

more of a bear hug from the armed forces, where we require more caressing, more time, and more honest feedback to mature our products faster. “

Startups have access to certain limited spaces, but their technologies need to be implemented in the frontiers of war. Testing and validating their technology in the relevant spaces not only assures the startups that the technology is being matured in the right direction but also gives the armed forces the confidence that certain technologies can be helpful in the given environment.

The armed forces, used as they are to public financing and the maze of bureaucracy, need to re-learn the financial side of the startup ecosystem. Mr Naganand Doraswamy, Founder IdeaSpring Capital, a venture capitalist, says, “A startup ecosystem has three Cscompetence, capital and the customer.

There is a symbiotic relationship between all three of these. You know one cannot get ahead of the others. All these three Cs must be in lockstep with each other for anything to succeed.” The military must try to understand the mechanics and dynamics that drive startups’ profitability and, hence its existence.

In its life cycle, a startup goes through the incubation, proceeds to the seed capital stage, and then only starts the growth stage. Interaction at the seed stage is most crucial because the VCs will bring on the capital.

The VC always looks closely at the venture, and if a startup is selling to a large customer like a nation’s armed forces, the response of VCs will be much more positive.

Conversely, VCs will tend to give it a pass if the startup is catering only to the defence sector and that too in a niche product with limited volumes.

CYBER DIPLOMACY

Cyber diplomacy is a new term. In today’s world, cyberspace knows no borders. Much technology transfer is taking place, with coding being outsourced internationally. How much cyber risk and threats do we consider when doing such kinds of projects? Around 80 per cent of cybercrime today has an international component to it.

When a cybercrime is reported, law enforcement agencies step in. If the crime committed is within the nation’s sovereign territory, law enforcement agencies could use technology for forensics and hunt out cybercriminals in the territory within the Indian jurisdiction.

But when it comes to international crime, like, for example, by a cyber-criminal sitting in Nigeria, Interpol would come into play. Interpol is nothing more than a liaisoning body. They, in turn, would seek the collaboration of the Nigerian police and their National Central Bureau (NCB) to solve this particular case.

However, Interpol usually would not like to take it up for small sums lost by individuals since international investigations cost a lot. So, how can such small individual cases be helped? This is an area in which the Cyber Diplomat is working through international collaboration with certain agencies. Since these crimes have a national security angle, we want to work with the armed forces to find solutions.

The U.S. government recognises around 16 critical infrastructure sectors, and there are around seven that the National Critical Information Infrastructure Protection Centre (NCIIPC) recognises. These critical infrastructure sectors include the health, finance, defence, and government sectors, directly connected to the Indian economy. These sectors are getting highly digitised today. There are a lot of technology transfers happening. The cyber diplomacy part of it is something that is overlooked.

For example, if you go to a company to do a product threat assessment, the company will just take into consideration the technical controls and will give you a report on what are the gap areas and where they need to be bridged; they will not take into consideration the national security aspect of it.

They will not consider where the company is based and how the flows are happening in terms of policies as well. The international relations aspect or the locational advantage aspect is not taken into consideration when such threat assessments are done. It’s not taken into consideration whether there are some Chinese links or certain ma licious links as well to a company.

Therefore, it is important to bridge this particular gap by bringing in the aspect of cyber diplomacy.

MS SANJANA RATHI

CEO & Founder, Cyber Diplomat

AI EMBEDDED BIO-TECH: FUTURISTIC WEAPONS

Increasing evidence points to a military congruence of AI & Biotech, raising fears of whole-scale casualties in future conflicts.

TDiya Celine Simon Research Associate in Synergia Foundation with a Bachelor’s in Media and Communications, English Literature and Psychology.

he coming together of AI and biotechnology opens a Pandora’s box of possibilities. While biotech has been the harbinger of most of humankind’s healing miracles, its weaponisation has the potential for unprecedented forms of warfighting vectors with results that few can predict with any measure of accuracy. The United Nations Secretary-General, António Guterres, aptly worded the concern when he said, “We need a coordinated global approach to govern these technologies, ensuring they are used for the benefit of humanity, not its destruction.”

The dual-use nature of these technologies necessitates vigilant and coordinated global governance to prevent their misuse as tools of war.

THE MARRIAGE OF AI & BIOTECH

At its most basic, Biotech uses cellular and biomolecular processes to create products that harness natural microbial biological processes. Biotechnology spans various fields, including genetics, biochemistry, and molecular biology. Some common applications are in healthcare, medicine, agriculture, industrial processes, environmental science, etc. Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming increasingly integral to biotechnology, enhancing research capabilities, efficiency, and innovation across various domains. AI algorithms can predict how different chemicals will interact with biological

As artificial intelligence advances biological engineering capabilities, there’s a heightened risk that malicious actors could misuse these technologies. Groups with harmful intentions, similar to the Japanese cult ‘Aum Shinrikyo’ in 1990, could potentially exploit these tools to execute bioterrorist acts, significantly increasing the risks associated with biotechnology.

systems, speeding up drug development and reducing the need for costly and time-consuming laboratory experiments. As a renowned AI Expert, Eric Topol aptly states, “AI has the potential to revolutionise medicine by transforming how we understand and treat diseases.”

In the pharma industry, AI has solved the longstanding protein folding problem. AI algorithms can predict how different chemicals will interact with biological systems, speeding up drug development and reducing the need for costly and time-consuming laboratory experiments. It helps identify potential drug candidates, predict their efficacy, and optimise their molecular structures. These tools analyse vast genetic data to uncover disease patterns and associations, which includes identifying genetic mutations that could lead to diseases and predicting how genetic diseases might respond to treatments. AI also leverages individual genet-

ic, environmental, and lifestyle data to tailor medical treatments to individual patients. This customisation increases the effectiveness of treatments and reduces adverse effects. Models like DeepMind’s AlphaFold can accurately predict protein structures based on their amino acid sequences.

This is crucial for understanding disease mechanisms and developing targeted therapies. For instance, determining protein structures traditionally requires time-consuming and costly experimental methods like X-ray crystallography or cryo-electron microscopy. AlphaFold can provide these structures in a fraction of the time, potentially speeding up the pace of scientific discovery.

Patients may now access over 250 biotechnology-based medical goods and vaccinations, many for previously incurable diseases.

AI enhances the capabilities of diagnostic tools, from interpreting complex medical imaging to develop ing diagnostic tests that can predict disease presence or risk with high accuracy. These applications improve the efficiency and effectiveness of biotechnological pro cesses and open new avenues for exploration and inno vation in the field. Insulin for diabetes treatment is now commonly produced using recombinant DNA technology.

Agricultural biotechnology is used by more than 13.3 million farmers worldwide to boost yields, minimise environ mental harm from pests and insects, and im prove crop productivity. Crop data collected by drones and sensors are analysed to manage farm practices, predict crop yields, optimise resource use, and monitor the health of crops and soil.

AI can enhance medical care on the battlefield by providing diagnostic support, remote monitoring of soldiers’ health, and personalised treatment plans based on real-time data. The most crucial step involves accurate assessment and initial diagnosis, which guide the decision to provide first aid. Drawing on its experiences from the global war on terror, the U.S. Army is developing the Algorithms for Care and Treatment (iACT) program. This initiative will incorporate artificial intelligence algorithms to provide soldiers and medics with indications, warnings, and suggestions. The goal is to enhance their capabilities in monitoring, diagnosing, triaging, and treating their fellow service members.

AI-driven systems can also manage and analyse health data in challenging environments, ensuring timely medical interventions. AI aids genetic research focusing on understanding how genes influence military personnel performance, health, and resilience. Such research could lead to the development of genetic enhancements aimed at improving endurance, stress resistance, or recovery rates.

In military logistics, AI embedded Biotech can accelerate the design and creation of genetically engineered organisms or biological systems that can produce materials useful for the military, such as biofuels, novel materials, or substances that can degrade environmental contaminants. The home-grown technology developed by CSIR-IIP Dehradun for producing bio-jet fuel has received formal approval for use in military aircraft of the Indian Air Force (IAF). In biotechnological supplies and medical logistics, AI can optimise the storage, distribution, and management of biological materials and medical supplies across various environments.

AI models predict microbial interactions and optimise the production of biofuels, pharmaceuticals, and other valuable chemicals in fermentation processes. Techniques like CRISPR (Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) and gene therapy can correct genetic defects and treat diseases like cystic fibrosis and sickle cell disease.

Furthermore, more than fifty biorefineries are being constructed in North America to test and improve processes for turning renewable biomass into chemicals and biofuels that can lower greenhouse gas emissions.

AI AND BIOTECHBIOTECH JOIN BATTLE.

Research has indicated that approximately 86 per cent of deaths on the battlefield happen within the first thirty minutes following an injury.

Evacuating injured soldiers from an active combat zone expeditiously has been a principal focus of most modern armies since the Crimean War (1854-1856), which showed how even minor wounds could quickly get infected and turn gangrenous and lead to loss of limbs and, worse, lives.

Scientists want to create the ultimate super soldier for the futuristic battlefield, tinkering with human capacities. AI is integrated into neurotechnology to develop interfaces that enhance cognitive abilities, such as improved reaction times, memory, or decision-making under stress. Neuralink, founded by Elon Musk, is at the forefront of developing brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) to merge human cognition with artificial intelligence. However, its primary use cases, such as Parkinson’s disease, epilepsy, and spinal cord injuries by restoring motor functions or mitigating undesirable symptoms. Its definitive use in the military is still in manifestation. This includes research into brain-computer interfaces that could enable direct communication between humans and machines.

AI-driven simulations and virtual environments are used for training, providing realistic and adaptive scenarios that help soldiers prepare for biological threats or medical emergencies.

THE DARK SIDE

Since ancient times, ruthless military commanders have had little compunction in resorting to the unethical use of bioagents to achieve military objectives; history is replete with such ugly examples. One of the

recorded use of biowarfare goes as far back as 1347 when Mongol hordes routinely hurled plague-infested corpses into besieged walled cities along the Black Sea coast in the Crimean Peninsula.

The British fighting the American Indians in 1763 knowingly allowed smallpox-infected blankets to circulate amongst the tribes that, debilitated their ranks. The German army was the first to use weapons of mass destruction, both biological and chemical, during the First World War, although their attacks with biological weapons were on a rather small scale and were not particularly successful: covert operations using both anthrax and glanders attempted to infect animals directly or to contaminate animal feed in several of their enemy countries.

Japan’s bioweapon programme during the Second World War was spearheaded by its Unit 731 in the remote environs of the Japanese Kwantung Army, brutally enforcing its writ in occupied Manchuria. At its height, more than 5,000 people were involved in killing as many as 600 prisoners a year in human experiments in just one of its 26 centres. The Japanese tested at least 25 different disease-causing agents on prisoners and unsuspecting civilians.

During the war, the Japanese army poisoned more than 1,000 water wells in Chinese villages to study cholera and typhus outbreaks. Japanese planes dropped plague-infested fleas over Chinese cities or distributed them through saboteurs in rice fields and along roads. Certain biological agents might cause genetic mutations, leading to congenital disabilities and genetic disorders in future generations.

Some of the epidemics they caused persisted for years and continued to kill more than 30,000 people in 1947, long after the Japanese had surrendered. In modern times, while the direct militarised use of AI in biotechnology to cause harm or violence remains shroud-

ed from public view, there is enough technical evidence that dual use can give rise to serious mass casualties.

In the case of weaponised biotechnology and AI-enabled misuse by state and non-state actors, there is one example of university students using OpenAI’s Chat GPT to gather information on replicating pandemic-potential pathogens at home.

Even the militarised use of BCI technology raises significant ethical questions, including concerns about privacy (e.g., unauthorised access to one’s thoughts), consent, and the long-term impacts on human identity and societal norms.

The use of AI in designing or modifying biological systems could be misused to create harmful biological agents. The ease and speed at which AI can generate novel organisms or compounds might outpace the ability of regulatory bodies to oversee and control such activities. Developing specialised AI biological design tools, like AlphaFold2 and RFdiffusion, is advancing our capabilities in creating complex biological entities, such as therapeutic antibodies and novel proteins.

These tools are designed to tackle significant biological challenges and are trained on extensive biological data, including genetic sequences. While they hold promise for medical breakthroughs, they also raise concerns about the potential misuse to create biological agents with enhanced harmful properties, possibly circumventing natural evolutionary trade-offs between transmissibility and lethality.

Biological warfare involves using bacteria, viruses, or other pathogens as biological weapons against humans, animals, or plants to hinder or incapacitate or destroy. It can also include the use of toxins produced by organisms.

The use of biological agents is highly regulated under international law, specifically the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), which prohibits the development, production, and stockpiling of biological and toxin weapons. Now the convention will have to take into its embrace the role of AI also.

Two international treaties outlawed biological weapons in 1925 and 1972, but they have largely failed to stop countries from conducting offensive weapons research and large-scale production of biological weapons. Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC) in 1972, an improvement on the 1925 Geneva Protocol. Although the latter disallowed only the use of chemical or biological weapons, the BTWC also prohibits research on biological weapons.

BIO-SECURITY MEASURES

Biosecurity involves measures to prevent, respond to, and recover from biological threats and incidents, whether naturally, accidentally, or deliberately. The 2022 U.S. National Biodefence Strategy and Implementation Plan provides a suitable template for other countries to emulate. It highlights biosecurity as essential for American national security, economic innovation, and scientific empowerment. Over the past two decades, American leaders have made significant investments across the political spectrum to enhance biosecurity measures and the pandemic only accelerated this effort.

AI can positively promote biosecurity through its extra-human capacities. For instance, BlueDot’s AI-driven platform leverages AI to monitor global infectious diseases, providing outbreak alerts, risk assessments, and forecasting models. Its proven track record includes early alerts for significant outbreaks like Ebola and COVID-19.

India’s approach to biosecurity involves various measures to manage and prevent biological threats that affect agriculture, health, and the environment. The country’s biosecurity framework includes legislation such as the Destructive Insects and Pests (DIP) Act, initially established in 1914 and continually updated to address new challenges. This act is pivotal in regulating the import of plants and other materials to prevent the entry of invasive species and pests.

However, India faces significant challenges in enforcing these regulations effectively. Issues include inadequate surveillance systems for forest pests, which hinder early detection and rapid response to invasive alien species. Moreover, the 2013 Agricultural Biosecurity Bill, which proposed the creation of an Agricultural Biosecurity Authority to integrate and strengthen biosecurity across various sectors, has yet to be enacted. This bill aims to provide a more unified and compre-

WHAT ARE THE SUBSETS OF AI IN BIOTECHNOLOGY?

hensive approach to handling biosecurity threats but is still pending approval .

The challenges are compounded by the lack of a cohesive national biosecurity policy, which leads to fragmented efforts across different government bodies. This fragmentation is evident in the division of responsibilities among agencies like the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), and the Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO), which manage biosecurity issues related to health, agriculture, and national security respectively.

Synergia Takeaways

In this era, technological progress outpaces the development of necessary protective measures. AI technologies used in drug discovery can be misused to design lethal or incapacitating biotechnological weapons. Strengthening biosecurity measures is essential to protect the nation’s agriculture, biodiversity, and public health from natural and artificial biological threats.

AI can positively contribute to biosecurity through real-time epidemic detection, trend forecasting, and developing countermeasures and countermeasures.

AI-enabled biosecurity risks increase with globalisation. For India, the need for a robust biosecurity system is urgent due to the increased risks from global trade, climate change, and the potential for bioterrorism.

A FORMIDABLE OUTLIER?

Iran, once the fulcrum of Eurasia, is now a powerful outlier that regional players tread carefully around.

Tarini Dhar Prabhu, Research Associate in Synergia Foundation

It may be a pariah for the U.S. lead Western coalition and its supporters, but Iran’s resilience, growing power and influence never ceases to surprise its detractors and enthuse its small circle of friends.

As the unfolding events in Gaza since October 7th last year illustrate, no other nation has played a more central role in the ongoing turmoil. Its army of nonstate actors, financed, armed and in some cases trained by its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has proved to be a worthy opponent of the much-vaunted Israeli Defence Forces on the urban battlefields, despite the huge asymmetry in military power.

More than decades of economic sanctions and isolation from global markets have not been successful in rendering Iran into an economic basket case.

It has quietly and surreptitiously nursed its oil resources, and harnessing its vast human resources created an aura of invulnerability that keeps its hostile neighbours on edge. The unprecedented drone and missile barrage on the Israeli mainland, although not designed to be destructive, sent an unambiguous message to Israel and its allies of its coiled potential to wreak havoc in the region.

Clearly, the Islamic Republic of Iran has succeeded in standing tall amidst the Islamic umma in the ongoing struggle in Gaza.

Iran has capitalized on its outsider position by operating outside the norms dictated by its regional rivals, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). For instance, when Qatar, also a bit of a nonconformist, was boycotted and regionally isolated by its fellow Gulf countries, it strengthened economic ties with Iran and relied on Iranian airspace to reach the rest of the world. Additionally, Iran seeks out disempowered Shiite populations in the region, offering to train and arm them, which is understandably a source of concern for autocratic regimes in West Asia.

A PROUD HISTORY

Iran has played a significant role in the region since antiquity, historically as the centre of the Persian empire and more recently for its unique brand of Islamic Republic.

Iran, traditionally Persia, was not always Islamic; it was ruled by diverse conquerors such as the Greek Seleucids, the Parthians, and later the Sasanid dynasty before the Muslim Arab conquest in the 7th century CE.

The latter has left the most lasting influence. However, a medley of ethnic influences continued to weave their way through the country’s trajectory as Persian Islamic dynasties subsequently arose, and the region witnessed a series of Persian, Turkish, and Mongol conquerors until the Safavids, one of the largest and longest empires that ruled from 1501 to 1736.

A state-sanctioned, Persian-infused Shia clergy authority pervaded the country over the following centuries. The Qajar line arose in 1796, flavoured by increasing European intervention in the country’s internal matters coupled with the Shia clergy’s rising social and political authority.

The Pahlavi line, which rose to power in 1925, found that its poorly planned modernization efforts led to rampant public unrest, leading to the dynasty’s overthrow in the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

An arid mountainous region with a rich cultural history, Iran’s political development has undergone path-turning changes in the past century. Through the inception of constitutional rule in 1906, through absolutist rule and quiet attempts to modernize under two monarchs, a brief parliamentary democracy, and the famous Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iranian society transformed until the Islamic nation found that it posed a challenge to powerful Middle Eastern nations.

This revolution brought about a unique form of Islamic government that combined a modern parliamentary democracy with an Islamic theocracy controlled by clergy.

While the city, blessed with historic architecture and lush gardens, fell into neglect in the decades after the Iranian Revolution of 1978-79, visitors find it spotlessly spruced up and orderly despite the economic sanctions. Other important urban centres are Eshfahan and Shīrāz, converging modern architecture with historic landmarks, are vibrant educational, cultural, and commercial centres.

Iran’s main natural resources include oil, natural gas, arable land, agriculture, and minerals like zinc and iron ore. Iran has a significant land area that can support crop production, but this land is not well utilized; World Bank data estimates that only 29 per cent of the country’s total land area was used to produce crops in 2021. Prevalent crops are wheat, rice, and pistachios. Saffron, fruits, and dry fruits are important cash crops that bring in much-needed foreign currency.

Iran’s substantial crude oil reserves comprise a notable share of the total reserves of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In the course of developing and realizing its oil reserves, the Iranian government struck agreements with oil companies from multiple nations, such as the United Kingdom, Russia, the Netherlands and Spain. Pipelines mostly transport the oil.

Iran’s vast reserves of natural gas are estimated to be amongst the largest in the world. These increased sizably after the discovery of Caspian Sea gas reserves in 2011.

The world’s only Shia state, Iran suddenly found itself plunged in a long-running war with its neighbour Iraq that drained its economic and social resources. Additionally, the Islamic Republic’s alleged role in spawning international Islamic extremism and terrorism made it a global pariah.

Over the last decade of the 20th century, reformist elements opposed the conservative clergy and Iran’s persistent political and economic isolation. However, the conservative leadership and the increasingly influential Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stemmed these currents as their political and social authority grew.

The IRGC is a powerful branch of the Iranian armed forces, established after the 1979 revolution. The IRGC wields political and military influence within Iran and outside of it. Certain countries like Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, and the United States have designated it as a terrorist organization.

BLESSED BY GEOGRAPHY

Geographically, Iran is mostly a desert plateau surrounded by mountain ranges. The capital, Tehran, is perched on the southern foot of the Elburz Mountains.

The government plans to expand annual natural gas production and exploitation by investing in improving the industry, particularly since global demand for natural gas will likely increase. Key markets for Iranian natural gas include China and India.

Iran faces exacerbating climate challenges, most notably a water crisis. It suffers from recurring droughts that are impacting agricultural production. As global food prices rise, food insecurity is an issue for a country that has hitherto benefitted from abundant domestic food production.

ECONOMIC SURVIVAL

Iran’s economy’s main facets are the hydrocarbon, agricultural, and service sectors and a notable public manufacturing sector. Given that its natural gas and crude oil reserves are among the world’s largest, it is not surprising that economic activity and state revenues remain heavily oil-reliant. This leaves it vulnerable to volatility ensuing from international conditions.

According to the World Bank, external shocks like sanctions and volatile commodity prices plunged the country into a decade-long stagnation that finally ended in 2019/2020. However, when its oil exports fell drastically, state finances faced pressure, and inflation rose to over 40 per cent for four consecutive years, taking a toll on household purchasing power.

Yet, Iran’s economy has recently revived, bolstered by a recovery of its services industry after the pandemic and increased oil sector activity. The sanctions imposed on Russian energy came as a boon to Iran’s oil and gas industry as higher global oil prices hiked oil revenue. Sadly, this came at a stiff cost due to escalating food and commodities.

Iran’s resilient economy has adjusted to sanctions and their effects; for instance, the depreciated exchange rate helped Iranian goods compete on international markets.

Further, falling oil exports spurred the industry to expand its processing of crude oil and hydrocarbons and export them as petrochemicals. Sanctions also led Iran to lean closer to supportive neighbours and China, increasingly relying on indirect payment modes to settle international transactions. Pakistan remains an important trading partner and the recent visit of the Iranian President to Islamabad envisages enhancing the bilateral trade to over $ 10 billion.

EYE OF THE SHIA CRESCENT

For years, Iran has been an outsider in West Asia. For starters, it’s a largely Persian-speaking country in a region where Arabic is the lingua franca; more importantly, it is an island of Shiites amidst a sea of Sunnis.

Despite the isolation and sanctions, Teheran has displayed a surprising ability to project military power and religious influence across the region. It has successfully posed a credible challenge to the region’s traditional cultural leaders and kingpins like Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Iran has capitalized on its outsider position by operating outside the norms dictated by its regional rivals, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

For instance, when Qatar, also a bit of a non-conformist, was boycotted and regionally isolated by its fellow Gulf countries, it strengthened economic ties with Iran and relied on Iranian airspace to reach the rest of the world. Additionally, Iran seeks out disempowered Shiite populations in the region, offering to train and arm them, which is understandably a source of concern for autocratic regimes in West Asia.

FIGHTING THROUGH PROXIES

Its proxies are the most powerful weapon in Iran’s military and political arsenal. Iran-sponsored Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, nurtured by Iran for the last five decades, have emerged as powerful players in the complex geopolitics of the region.

These Iranian proxies not only confront Israel and act as a vanguard against Western manoeuvring but have also become quasi-states within states. Militarily, they have sprung many surprises- Hezbollah in the 2006 Israeli invasion of South Lebanon, Houthis in stemming the united military efforts of powerful Sau-

di Arabia and the UAE in Yemen, and now interdicting maritime traffic in the Red Sea. Of course, Hamas takes the prize in pulling off the October 7th surprise that shocked the Western world.

Operations like the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea go beyond their proclaimed aims - to pressure Israel to stop its war on Gaza - but are also a way to gain leverage with global powers. For instance, Saudi Arabia offered more concessions in its negotiations with the Houthis over the Yemen conflict.

As these actors grow into a serious risk to contend with, Iran gains clout as a power. For instance, several Arab nations have abstained from joining the US-led counter-operation against the Houthis in the Red Sea to avoid provoking Iran and worsening regional tensions.

India has also followed this strategy and concentrated its naval force in the Northern Arabian Sea against less politically hot Somali pirates.

Iran-linked groups and other militant outfits in countries like Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq have benefitted from increasingly accessible military technology, particularly since Tehran decided to liberalize ballistic missile technology, drones and other weapons of asymmetric warfare.

No doubt, Iran’s strategy of maintaining buffer groups across the region has created a challenge for regional players and the U.S.

Synergia Takeaways

Iran has adapted its regional and global isolation to its geopolitical compulsions. Despite sanctions, it continues to capitalize on its energy reserves to remain engaged with the global economy. However, its biggest challenge lies in diversifying its energy-based economy to foster job creation, promote its services sector and seek security from global volatility. However, there seems to be little evidence that such a roadmap is on the anvil

Undeniably, Iran has emerged as a power to reckon with in the Middle East through its network of armed, highly motivated non-state actors. The Gaza war has turned out to be the perfect stage to showcase this capability as its non-state actors collaborated in an admirable manner to contest the IDF. At the same time, much larger and powerful Arab nations watched helplessly from the sidelines.

As the security paradigms of the highly volatile Middle East hang at a balance due to the rising power of Iran, the Western powers led by the U.S. would be concerned. However, they are unlikely to cede ground without a fight, and there may be a few surprises awaiting Teheran once the dust settles on the rubble of Gaza.

RESCUING FROM THE DEPTHS

Can India leverage its rapidly growing deep sea rescue capacity as an Instrument of Diplomacy in the Bay of Bengal?

Rear Admiral Monty Khanna AVSM, NM, (Retd) is the former Deputy NSCS in New Delhi as the Assistant Military Adviser and Strategic Advisor at Synergia Foundation.

The Bay of Bengal has an area of roughly 2.17 million square kilometres. It has five littoral countries: Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand and Indonesia. Its physical characteristics are unique. Large river systems from the Himalayas, primarily the Ganges and the Brahmaputra, discharge into the northern part of the Bay through the Sundarbans delta. As these waters are rich in nutrients, they provide a good ecosystem for fisheries. The Andaman and Nicobar group of islands and the Cocos Islands to their immediate north are key features of the Bay.

The Bay has a rich history going back several millennia. Through these waters, seafarers from the Chola empire travelled to different parts of Southeast Asia, intermingling religion and culture in Cambodia, Thailand and Indonesia. The Europeans subsequently used it to establish their colonies on the Indian subcontinent. Consequent to all the nations of the region having gained their independence by the middle of the last century, the political geography of the Bay has been stable, with the exception of the liberation of East Pakistan and the subsequent formation of Bangladesh in 1971.

MARITIME STABILITY

Maritime boundaries between all the nations have been delimited and mutually recognised by countries through formal agreements. Where disputes have risen

The sustained availability of such a capability on the East Coast of India minimises time-late for a rescue attempt to materialise for a submarine disaster in the Bay of Bengal. This capability thus has the potential to be a ‘collective good’ for all submarine operators in the area. While undoubtedly, in the event of an accident, our capacities will be mobilised and brought to bear, a certain amount of prior preparation will make this entire process smoother.

regarding overlapping Exclusive Economic Zones, these have been taken up for arbitration through established UNCLOS mechanisms: an Arbitral Tribunal in the case of India and Bangladesh and the International Tribunal on Laws of the Sea (ITLOS) in the case of Bangladesh and Myanmar. Rulings given by these bodies have been responsibly complied with, thereby setting an example for other regions of the world to emulate.

While some differences and disputes between nations do persist, the Rohingya issue between Bangladesh and Myanmar is one such example; deft diplomacy and mature handling of the situation have ensured that these have not evolved into full-fledged conflicts. While geopolitically, the region remains relatively stable, from a maritime security point of view, numerous challeng-

es persist. Some of the reasons for this stem from the political instability within Myanmar, challenges related to governance due to the nature of the terrain in the Indo-Gangetic delta and outlying islands, inadequate capacities of maritime security forces, as well as economic hardships faced by the coastal populace, amongst others. This has resulted in a propensity to resort to illegal practices ranging from unregulated fishing to human trafficking and gun running.

While raising capacities to improve governance, attempts have also been made to leverage collective security using bilateral, mini-lateral and multilateral constructs. These include organisations such as the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS), the Indian Ocean Regional Association (IORA), the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), and the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC).

EXPANDING SUBMARINE FORCES

Regionally, nations have substantially increased investment in their respective navies. While the accretion of assets has been across multiple types of vessels, the most notable has been the spurt in submarine acquisitions. Except for Sri Lanka, all the Bay of Bengal countries have acquired submarines in the last five years or are in the process of doing so.

India is currently evaluating two different classes of conventional submarines from vendors that responded to the RFP under the Project 75 (I) programme. Bangladesh commissioned two refurbished Ming Class submarines acquired from China in March 2017. Myanmar commissioned one Kilo Class submarine acquired from India in December 2020 and another refurbished Ming Class submarine from China in December 2021.

Thailand’s acquisition of a brand-new Yuan Class submarine from China had been under the clouds due to issues with export clearances of the German MTU 396 diesel engines that China has been manufacturing under license. As per the latest reports, the Royal Thai Navy has recently agreed to purchase this asset with the

Chinese-designed and built CHD 620 engine. While the submarine may be initially based at Sattahip Naval Base in the Gulf of Thailand, given the area’s shallow waters, it is likely that the vessel may subsequently be relocated to a suitable location in the Andaman Sea.

On 28th March 2024, Indonesia concluded a contract with Naval Group, France, to manufacture two Scorpene Evolved full Lithium-ion Battery (LiB) submarines. These vessels will be built by the PT-PAL shipyard in Indonesia under a Transfer of Technology (ToT) agreement.

Thus, the Bay of Bengal is set to have a discernible spurt in the number of submarine operators and, consequently, in the number of submarines operating in its fold.

RISKS OF SUBMARINE OPERATIONS

Due to the stealthy nature of their operations and ability to inflict asymmetric damage, submarines tend to have a disproportionate impact on the prevailing balance of power. Their induction could, therefore, lead to heightened maritime security concerns and erosion of trust. This could be detrimental to the relatively benign geo-political character of the Bay of Bengal. One of the means to counter this effect is to find avenues for coordination and cooperation in ensuring the safe operations of these platforms.

While submarines have become much safer to operate over the years, the possibility of an accident cannot be ruled out. Fatal accidents such as the loss of the Argentinian submarine ARA San Juan on 15th November 2017 and the Indonesian submarine KRI Nanggala on 21st April 2021 are testimony to the inherent dangers associated with submarine operations.

Accidents on board a submarine typically result in the ingress of a substantial amount of water, causing it to lose its positive buoyancy and sink. If the water’s depth in the incident area is less than the crushing depth of its hull, the vessel could come to rest relatively intact on the sea bottom. Insofar as the rescue of survivors is concerned, it now becomes a race against time as the carbon dioxide percentage gradually begins to climb. There could also be a buildup of other harmful gases associated with electrolyte spillage from the large lead acid battery bank. A slow but persistent drop in oxygen levels accompanies all this. Time-late, i.e., the time between the occurrence of the accident and the attempt for rescue, now becomes a critical determinant of the effort’s success.

Several factors come into play in the determination of time-late. The first is the time that elapses between the occurrence of the accident and the shore authorities becoming aware of it. This will primarily depend on whether the submarine has been able to transmit a distress message at the time of occurrence. In the event of an accident having occurred when submerged, thereby precluding the transmission of a distress signal, submarines are equipped with distress buoys, which

are released either manually or automatically and are programmed to transmit once they reach the surface, alerting authorities ashore. This, too, is not foolproof, as there are occasions when release is thwarted due to possible structural damage or other obstructions. In such an event, the first indication of an accident is normally when a submarine fails to make a scheduled transmission, indicating that it is continuing with safe operations. This puts considerable strain on the rescue effort as the position of the submarine is now uncertain, and localisation is time-consuming.

The rescue effort usually comes in the form of a Deep-Sea Rescue Vessel (DSRV) configured to mate with the rescue hatch of the submarine and evacuate personnel from within. It is accompanied by one or more unmanned Remotely Operated Vessels (ROVs) for communication, visual inspection, etc.

The heavy package requires a support ship to ferry it to the site and its continued operations. While it may also be transportable by air, given the size and weight of the equipment, it would need several sorties by heavylift, wide-bodied transport aircraft to do so. Further, once airlifted to an airport in the vicinity of the accident site, the equipment has to be moved on trucks to a suitable harbour and subsequently installed on an available Craft-Of-Opportunity (COOP) that has sufficient deck space to accommodate the A-Frame, containers, DSRV, ROVs and associated equipment – no mean feat!

The alternative is using a pre-designated vessel at the permanent location of the rescue kit, which can be rapidly tasked to embark the equipment and sail to the designated area. While this may be logistically easier, the time penalty associated with the vessel’s passage to the accident site will need to be considered.

The point being made by these lengthy explanations is that when it comes to submarine rescue, there is no escaping the tyranny of geography.

INDIAN SUBMARINE RESCUE CAPABILITY

India’s submarine rescue capabilities received a tremendous boost with the acquisition of two state-of-theart DSRVs built by James Fisher, U.K. The first of these was inducted in 2018, and the second in 2019. They can conduct rescue operations up to a depth of 650m, which is more than the crushing depth of most conventional submarines. Mother ships for these systems have also been identified and are kept ready on each coast for immediate deployment.

associated arrangements to ensure a high probability of successful mating of the DSRV with the submarine in distress. Such certification may have to be repeated periodically to ensure that the requisite upkeep standards are met.

THE WAY FORWARD

No capability can be deemed fully operational without a full-fledged exercise involving physically transferring personnel between a bottomed submarine and the DSRV. To facilitate this, a multilateral submarine rescue arrangement is proposed for all the submarine operators amongst the littoral nations of the Bay of Bengal. This could be formalised by the collaborative drafting and acceptance of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which spells out the broad parameters of cooperation, including the periodic certification of mating arrangements, training, and the conduct of exercises.

A multilateral submarine rescue exercise would involve the participation of submarines from one or more countries in the region. The submarine will be required to bottom on the seabed and act as a disabled vessel. The DSRV mothership would then enter the area, establish communication, and deploy an unmanned ROV to examine the submarine and record parameters to brief the DSRV crew. The DSRV will be launched and piloted to the submarine to mate with its rescue hatch. Once a watertight seal has been established, the hatch is opened, and personnel from the submarine are physically transferred to the DSRV. On completion, the hatch is shut, and the DSRV detaches to return to the mother ship.

Given limitations on the availability of submarines and other operational constraints, it may be difficult for all the operators in the Bay of Bengal to participate in the exercise along with a submarine. They could, however, send key personnel from the submarine community to be observers. Such exercises will go a long way in increasing the morale of the submarine crew, who are confident that should an untoward incident occur that causes the boat to sink, the probability of a successful rescue attempt would be high.

CONCLUSION

Formalising a submarine rescue arrangement between the Bay of Bengal submarine operators would mitigate the trust deficit associated with the rapidly growing induction of these stealthy platforms. Further, intermingling the submarine crew and supervisory staff through the conduct of exercises will assist in building a sense of bonhomie and camaraderie amongst the crew. Submarine rescue diplomacy thus has the potential to play a signifi cant role in ensuring the tranquillity that has been traditionally associat ed with the Bay of Bengal per sists.

AN AXIS IN THE MAKING?

Russia and China: Strategic Partnership or Mariage de Convenance?

Lt Gen G A V Reddy AVSM, SC, VSM (Retd) is the former Deputy Chief of Integrated Defense Staff, DG-DIA and Chief Strategic Advisor, Synergia Foundation.

Making a surprise appearance at the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia and China of attempting to undermine the upcoming global peace summit in Switzerland.

Beijing has been repeatedly accused by Ukraine and its supporters in the West of propping up the Russian economy through its purchase of vast quantities of Russian gas and oil. More importantly, China has been accused of covertly maintaining a pipeline supplying weaponry to Moscow that has enabled an offensive momentum for over two years despite debilitating losses in men and material.

The accusations are nothing new. Despite the pressure from the U.S. and Europe, China has proved that it is no longer a second-rate power that can buckle down under such pressure.

SEEPED IN HISTORY

Russia and China have a long history of complex relations marked by periods of both cooperation and conflict. In the 19th century, the Russian Empire took advantage of a weaker China, forcing it to cede territory through unequal treaties like the Treaties of Aigun and Peking. To date, this legacy of Russian imperialism has remained a source of suspicion in China. In the mid20th century, tensions between the USSR and Mao’s

The complex relationship is driven more by their common rivalry with the U.S. than by any natural affinity. The enhanced cooperation between Russia and China encompasses a broad spectrum of strategic, economic and military collaborations.

China devolved into the Sino-Soviet Split, which lasted well into the 1980s.

Border disputes were a central flashpoint, nearly resulting in large-scale conflict in 1969. Moscow also pressed Beijing on other fronts, criticising Chinese repression in Tibet and indirectly calling for its independence.

Following the normalisation of relations in 1989, China and Russia officially resolved their border disputes.

However, enduring structural factors like geography continue to generate friction. China’s growing presence in the Russian Far East has stirred anger among some Russians who complain about Chinese workers stealing jobs and exploiting resources.

Despite strengthening ties in recent years, considerable strategic mistrust exists between the two countries. Russia fears an increasingly powerful China may infringe on its interests, while China remains wary of Russia’s reliability as a partner given their history.

MULTIDIMENSIONAL RELATIONSHIP

Strategic Partnership: Russia’s and China’s partnership extends beyond economic and military realms. Both countries have emphasised political mutual trust, comprehensive strategic coordination, and cooperation in international and multilateral forums. They have forged a new paradigm of relations based on non-alliance, non-confrontation, and mutual benefit, aiming to maintain global strategic stability and promote cooperation among emerging major countries.

Economic Cooperation: The economic ties between Russia and China have significantly strengthened over the years, with bilateral trade reaching record levels. China has become Russia’s largest trading partner, with trade volumes exceeding exponentially in 2023. The two countries have been working on large-scale energy projects, increasing cooperation in the energy sector and enhancing trade relations in various industries.

The economic cooperation between Russia and China has evolved significantly over time, reflecting a complex relationship that has seen both growth and challenges. The total trade between Russia and China has shown substantial growth, increasing to $ 240 billion in 2023, more than 64% since 2021.

China’s exports to Russia surged from $3.5 billion in 2002 to $ 110.94 billion in 2023, while Russia’s exports to China changed from $8.4 billion to nearly $ 101 billion in 2022. Russia has become more dependent on China economically, with China being Russia’s largest trading partner. While China has become crucial for

Russia, Russia only accounted for a small percentage of China’s total trade. This asymmetry has been raising concerns about the depth of their economic relationship in Moscow.

The economic ties between Russia and China are heavily concentrated in natural resources, with energy playing a significant role; most of Russia’s exports to China are energy-related. China’s enormous energy needs align with Russia’s abundance of oil and natural gas, creating complementary economies.

Despite the deepening economic ties, challenges remain in the economic relationship between Russia and China. The partnership faces structural constraints, with Russia’s junior status potentially becoming more of a liability as the economic connections strengthen. Russia is considering reducing the risk of greater reliance on China as the partnership evolves.

Military Collaboration: Russia and China have expanded their military cooperation, conducted joint military exercises and boosted defence ties. They have worked on developing missile warning systems, enhancing collaboration in space, and engaging in joint bomber patrols over the Pacific and East China Sea.

Despite historical tensions over arms exports, the two countries have increased military exchanges and exercises, signalling a deepening military partnership.

In January 2024, China’s new Defense Minister Dong Jun and his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu affirmed their commitment to elevate military cooperation to unprecedented levels. Russia and China have increasingly utilised joint military exercises to assert their presence and capabilities. In September 2022, Russia hosted the Vostok-2022 military exercise, with China participating. In July 2019 and December 2020, Russia and China flew joint bomber patrols over the Pacific.

While China now produces most of its weapons, it still imports certain military products from Russia, such as jet engines. The two countries have also been working on developing missile warning systems and enhancing collaboration in space. Following the implementation of international sanctions, China provided economic relief to Russia. In April 2023, Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu made his first overseas visit to Russia, stating that the ties between China and Russia “surpass military-political alliances of the Cold War era”. In May 2023, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak visited Beijing and met with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

These developments highlight the deepening military cooperation between Russia and China, driven by their shared interests and desire to counter Western influence. However, the relationship remains complex, with both countries cautious about preserving their individual sovereignty and strategic autonomy.

The recent military cooperation between Russia and China has significant implications.

• Deepening Strategic Partnership: The two countries have elevated their military cooperation to unprecedented levels, with their defence ministers affirming a commitment to strengthen ties. This marks a notable advancement in the strategic partnership between Russia and China.

• Potential Threat to NATO: If China’s military cooperation with Russia provides evidence of a de facto military alliance, it could lead NATO and its member states to perceive both Russia and China as threats to their security, resulting in far-reaching consequences across diplomatic, financial, trade, economic and military relations. A Russian-Chinese military alliance would have significant political and military-operation-

al impacts on NATO’s deterrence and defence capabilities. Russia’s calculus would be encouraged to take on higher risks if China contributed proactively with substantial forces and capabilities.

• Challenges in Crisis Management: A military alliance between Russia and China may make it more difficult to achieve a common view among actors involved in crisis management and stabilisation efforts in Europe and on Europe’s periphery. Russia has already expanded its influence in several crises.

• Intensified Military Exercises and Patrols: China and Russia have increasingly utilised joint military exercises to assert their presence and capabilities. They have conducted joint naval exercises and patrols in the Sea of Japan, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea.

• Mutual Support and Assistance: China has supported Russia on the Ukrainian issue despite Western pressure. Shipments of dual-use equipment and industrial products from China have measurably contributed to Russia’s war effort.

• Implications for Taiwan: China’s intensified military cooperation with Russia may have significant implications for President Xi’s ambition of bringing Taiwan back into the Middle Kingdom’s fold, either peacefully or otherwise.

THE U.S. PERSPECTIVE

Recent military cooperation between Russia and China is a concern, and the U.S. has adopted strategic recalibration, prompting a reassessment of its defence and foreign policy strategies.

The U.S. has criticised Russian and Chinese military cooperation, particularly joint military exercises

and the deepening strategic alignment between the two countries. The U.S. views this cooperation as challenging its global hegemony and a potential threat to international security dynamics. Efforts have been made to impose sanctions and diplomatic pressure to counter the activities perceived as undermining global stability and security. The U.S. has also engaged in discussions with China on issues related to Russia-North Korea military cooperation.

The U.S. has expressed concerns, particularly regarding regional stability and the balance of power. This has led to increased vigilance, preparations, and potential adjustments in U.S. defence planning to address the changing security landscape influenced by the Sino-Russian partnership.

INDIAN POSITION

As Russia’s long-term strategic partner and sharing a troubled relationship with its next-door neighbour, China, India predictably looks at the growing axis with concern. To protect its national interests, India must navigate its relationship with Russia with a delicate balance of diplomatic and strategic considerations.

With more than 40 per cent of its defence supplies coming from Russia, despite major efforts at indigenisation and diversion, dependency is critical. The extended military stand-off with China, with thousands of troops and armour in an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation, makes this dependency even more critical. India’s strategic calculations vis-a-vis Russia could go awry if China successfully exerts unbearable pressure on its junior partner, Russia.

This has necessitated a careful balancing of diplomatic and military strategies. India faces a dilemma between its “comprehensive global strategic partnership” with the U.S. and its “special and privileged partnership” with Russia. The strengthening of the Sino-Russian partnership could lead India to perceive both countries as threats to its security, with far-reaching consequences across diplomatic, financial, trade, economic, and military relations.

The growing China-Russia alliance casts a shadow over regional stability, with implications for India’s strategic positioning amidst increasing tensions. China and Russia’s intensified military exercises and patrols in the region are direct responses to Western military activities. India is concerned about the potential consequences of China’s growing economic influence in Central Asia. China may use its economic power to strengthen its influence and even politically pressure competitors in the region.

INDIAN STRATEGY TO COUNTER THE AXIS

India must adopt a suitably nuanced approach to maintain its interests amidst regional tensions. Indian strategists could align India’s strategic interests with global powers like the U.S., Japan, and European na-

tions to counterbalance the influence of the China-Russia partnership. By fostering closer ties with key allies and participating actively in multilateral forums, India can assert its position and protect its national security interests in the face of evolving regional dynamics.

To achieve this, India should engage in proactive diplomatic efforts to strengthen relationships with key global players, including the U.S., European nations, and other regional powers. Building strategic alliances and partnerships can provide India with additional leverage in managing the implications of the China-Russia alliance and safeguarding its national interests.

The strategy aimed at effectively managing the implications of the enhanced strategic partnership between China and Russia must ensure India’s interests are safeguarded, and its position in the region remains strong amidst shifting global dynamics. The broad contours of such a strategy should have the following attributes: -

• Focus on Regional Stability and Geopolitical Dynamics: Indian strategists must address the implications of the China-Russia partnership on regional stability and geopolitical dynamics. Understanding the evolving security architecture in the Indo-Pacific region and the impact of the Russia-China alliance on global power dynamics is crucial for India to navigate the changing geopolitical landscape effectively.

• Focus on Regional Alliances: Strengthening regional alliances and partnerships, particularly with countries in the Indo-Pacific region, can enhance India’s strategic positioning and counterbalance the influence of the China-Russia alliance. Collaborating with like-minded nations on security, economic, and diplomatic fronts can help India effectively navigate the changing geopolitical dynamics.

• Balanced Engagement with Russia and China: Indian strategists need to carefully balance engagements with Russia and China, maintaining strategic autonomy while navigating the complexities of the evolving partnership between the two countries. India should leverage its historical ties with Russia while engaging constructively with China to safeguard its interests and promote Indo-Pacific stability.

• Diversification of Defence Supplies: India should prioritise diversifying defence procurement to reduce dependency on Russia, especially as the Russia-China partnership deepens. Exploring alternative defence partners and enhancing Indigenous defence production capabilities will help mitigate risks associated with overreliance on a single source.

• Defence Collaboration and Modernisation: Enhancing defence collaborations and exploring joint military production can bolster India’s defence capabilities and modernise its armed forces. The focus on leveraging advanced technology transfers and enhancing joint military ventures to strengthen India’s defence preparedness has to be prioritised.

SURVIVING GEOPOLITICS

Despite unforeseen geopolitical shocks, the global economy has exhibited surprising resilience, but will it sustain indefinitely?

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

For the last two years, the geopolitical landscape has been anything but encouraging-a savage battle of attrition in the European heartland, consuming thousands of lives and draining the treasures of the West and Russia. Gaza is a lunar wasteland, and even if the fighting ceases, it will cost billions to rebuild the territory. And even more threateningly, the U.S. and China glower at each other over the existence of a defiant tiny island state.

Many countries, especially in South Asia, were faced with the daunting predicament of an economic collapse, largely blamed on the two-year-long pandemic. The congruence of economic downturn and geopolitical upheavals has brought the world to a dangerous inflexion point.

Yet, there seems to be a silver lining that gives rise to hope and optimism. On the face of it, the global economy seems to have successfully weathered the storm, at least for the present. American economy, the lifeblood of global markets, has boomed even as its trade war with China intensified. Europe, a wealthy and generous customer and especially its star performer, Germany, has successfully cut the energy umbilical cord with Russia and deflected that economic winter predicted by many doom-sayers. Gaza conflict and exchange of missiles between Iran and Israel did not materialise into an all-out regional conflict, keeping the world markets safe from the dreaded oil shock. Even the pesky Houthi reb-

The global financial system is being refashioned. Recurrent crises and the West’s inability to contain their effects have pushed middle-income countries to strengthen their domestic capital markets, fortify institutions, and shield themselves from international capital flow volatility. American-led financial warfare has created parallel systems beyond U.S. control, resulting in a more distributed model where countries have alternatives to relying on America. Additionally, America’s growing economic conflict with China might eventually force countries to choose sides, threatening to fracture the entire system.

els, with their inexhaustible supply of drones and missiles, could not stem the global flow of goods through the Red Sea, even if shipping and insurance costs went up. The international outlook has turned positive, with the share of trade in global GDP bouncing back from the lows it hit during the two-year-long pandemic lockdowns, and it is projected to grow healthily this year.

However, if looked deeper, the fragility is clearly visible. For years, the Bretton Woods system of monetary management order established in the closing days of

World War II had been steadily eroded and is threatened by an imminent collapse.

As the world stepped into the 21st century, an increasing number of global hot spots and myriad conflicts could set off a descent into political anarchy and economic waste; these friction points have yet to be resolved and are only being managed to bring about a façade of uneasy peace-the Middle East, India-Pakistan, India-China, the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan and the list goes on. Needless to say, once the guns start blazing, economic ruin is the norm, and it could be fast and brutal!

MULTILATERALISM ON THE BACKFOOT

The disintegration of the old order is visible everywhere. Sanctions are used four times as much as they were during the 1990s; America has recently imposed “secondary” penalties on entities that support Russia’s war-waging capacity.

A subsidy war is underway as countries seek to copy China’s and America’s vast state backing for green manufacturing. Although the dollar remains dominant and emerging economies are more resilient, global capital flows are starting to fragment.

The institutions that safeguarded the old system are either already defunct or fast losing credibility. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) turns 30 next year but will have spent more than five years in stasis owing to American neglect. An identity crisis grips the International Monetary Fund (IMF), caught between a green agenda and ensuring financial stability. The UN Security Council appears paralysed as the P5 quarrel amongst themselves.

The system’s decline threatens to slow that progress or even throw it into reverse. Once broken, it is unlikely to be replaced by new rules. Instead, world affairs will descend into their natural state of anarchy that favours banditry and violence.

Without trust and an institutional cooperation framework, it will become harder for countries to deal with the 21st century’s challenges, from containing an arms race in artificial intelligence to collaborating in space. Clubs of like-minded countries will tackle problems. That can work but more often involves coercion and resentment, as with Europe’s carbon border tariffs or China’s feud with the IMF.

RESHAPING OF GLOBAL MARKETS

control, resulting in a more distributed model where countries have alternatives to relying on America. Additionally, America’s growing economic conflict with China might eventually force countries to choose sides, threatening to fracture the entire system.

Countries hit hardest by the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis have pursued self-sufficiency to avoid the uncertainties of global capital. Middle-income countries globally have also strengthened their financial systems, stockpiling foreign exchange reserves to defend against speculative attacks and crises.

Many central banks have adopted independent inflation-targeting mandates. During the recent global inflationary surge, countries like Brazil, Chile, and South Korea raised interest rates ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, successfully controlling rising prices.

These developments have eroded the West’s dominance in the financial system. Stronger national institutions have enhanced stability and enabled domestic markets to mature without cutting off international finance.

Southeast Asia’s capital controls have reduced volatility, providing stable capital for growing firms, evidenced by multinational banks’ continued presence in Singapore.

However, America and its allies’ increasing use of economic warfare is a less benign force reshaping the financial system. The weaponisation of finance, facilitated by trackable electronic payments and the dollar’s dominance, has given the U.S. unprecedented influence, enabling it to exclude banks or entire jurisdictions from the financial system. This has led many to seek alternatives to U.S.-controlled financial levers.

America tightened its control over foreign finance after the 9/11 attacks, utilising SWIFT’s data to track transactions and enforce sanctions. The Patriot Act further empowered the Treasury to drive non-compliant banks out of business.

The tense economic rivalry between America and China is another force reshaping the global financial system. China, like Russia, has developed its own payment networks to mitigate potential sanctions. This Sino-American tension impacts global capital flows, as seen in America’s new approach to outbound investment.

SPREADING THE WEALTH

The consequences of this shift in balance in global financial markets will be enormous. A system long dominated by America, with both its benefits and drawbacks, has diversified to the point where significant portions could potentially break away and operate independently.

Financial centres in Asian financial centres like Singapore, Hong Kong, and Tokyo, along with emerging hubs such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Dubai, are rapidly catching up with New York and London.

There is much to celebrate about this. In the old hub-and-spoke era of global finance, America’s monetary policy, unpredictable investors, and general mismanagement of banks often triggered global crises, with some European assistance.

In contrast, the current, more decentralised financial system appears to offer greater stability. Countries have become more resilient to the system’s recurrent volatility and crashes.

Poor countries are also starting to build crucial financial infrastructure, with new national payment systems coming online. Due to the competitive threat these systems pose, established players are upgrading outdated digital architecture and racing to lower costs.

However, dangers loom as well. Rising geopolitical tensions or full-blown wars could pull the system apart entirely. In a world where countries, investors, and businesses are forced to choose a bloc and never step outside, it would be poorer, more volatile, and possibly more prone to conflict. Financial sanctions, protectionism, and a geopolitical realignment of capital flows all contribute to this fractured world.

Currently, the system’s shape is unstable. The growth of non-Western financial centres, combined with shifting geopolitical distances between them, makes them prone to sudden changes with unpredictable consequences.

ADVANTAGE INDIA?

As one of the few major economies displaying robustness in these difficult times, there is much speculation that India could act as a driver of the global economy.

As global markets experience a diverse mix of fragmentation, competition and indecisiveness, the limelight is turned on other regional centres. Several key factors drive India’s attractiveness as a business destination.

Its robust domestic consumption and favourable demographics create a thriving market for various products and services. With a burgeoning middle class and increasing disposable income, Indian consumers drive demand and offer significant market potential.

India’s flourishing tech ecosystem has also gained international recognition. The country has seen a surge in tech startups and innovative ventures, especially in fintech, e-commerce, and software-as-a-service (SaaS).

This technological prowess enhances India’s appeal as companies see opportunities for collaboration and growth within this dynamic landscape.

Foreign direct investments (FDIs) have solidified India’s position as a key investment destination. In the fiscal year 2023, India attracted nearly $71 billion in FDIs. The substantial FDIs highlight India’s immense potential and stability as a market.

Companies recognise the long-term prospects and favourable returns on investment that India can provide, reinforcing its appeal as a destination for global firms and consulting giants seeking expansion and growth opportunities.

Hundreds of companies, including Maersk, Samsung, and Wells Fargo, have offices in white-collar hubs in cities like Bangalore, Chennai, Pune, and Hyderabad.

THE TECH PIVOT

In the 1990s, global firms such as General Electric began outsourcing tedious tasks to Indian workers, including filling out forms and patching mainframe software. Over time, Indian companies like Infosys, TCS, and Wipro took on much of this work.

Now, foreign firms are expanding the scope of white-collar jobs outsourced to India’s well-educated, cost-effective workforce.

They have established “global capability centres” (GCCs) to handle tasks from data analysis to research and development (R&D), fuelling a new wave of services-led growth in India.

Offshoring white-collar work to India has always been easier than blue-collar work. Spreadsheets and emails don’t need to navigate the country’s congested roads or rely on its inadequate infrastructure.

GCCs generally have reliable internet connections, which is a luxury that is not always available in India. Additionally, labour laws regarding redundancies and working hours are less restrictive for white-collar workers, making operations smoother for global firms.

Recent advancements in cloud computing and video conferencing have made accessing India’s vast pool of talented workers easier. Having adapted to remote supervision during the COVID-19 pandemic, many managers now actively consider outsourcing many job specifications to distant locations like India.

According to NASSCOM, this shift explains why the number of Global Capability Centres (GCCs) in India has surged from 700 in 2010 to 1,580 last year. A new centre opens roughly every week, with two-fifths in and around Bangalore.

NASSCOM estimates that India’s GCCs generated $46 billion in revenues last year. At the same time, Pune-based consultancy Wizmatic suggests this figure could be as high as $120 billion, approximately 3.5 per cent of the country’s GDP.

According to Wizmatic, these centres employ about 3.2 million workers. Many Indian graduates eagerly seek these opportunities, as starting salaries at outsourcing giants are often less than $10,000 annually, whereas GCC positions can triple that income.

The activities of GCCs are increasingly diverse. For example, Lululemon’s workers in India analyse sales data to advise stores in Dubai to stock more bright colours and those in New York to stock more neutrals.

Although design remains in Canada, the Indian GCC handles tasks from pricing to supply chain management. Wells Fargo’s teams in Bangalore, Chennai, and Hyderabad support the bank’s lending and investment portfolio management operations.

This surge has significantly boosted India’s services exports, which reached $338 billion last year, nearly 10 per cent of GDP, up from $53 billion in 2005, according to Goldman Sachs. India now represents 4.6 per cent of global services exports, up from around 2 per cent in 2005. In contrast, the country’s goods exports make up just 1.8 per cent of the global total, an increase from 1 per cent in 2005.

TIER 2 BOOM

IT companies are now expanding into smaller cities to tap into local talent and capitalise on lower land costs, rents, and wages. Before the pandemic, workers typically moved from smaller cities to major IT hubs for jobs.

However, firms like Cognizant, Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, HCLTech, and Wipro are now setting up operations in these areas due to cost efficiency, government incentives, and the availability of skilled workers.

This shift helps companies reduce attrition and cut costs amidst weak sales growth in the $254 billion Indian IT sector.

According to Deloitte and Nasscom, employee salaries in these smaller cities are 25%-30% lower, and real estate rentals are about 50% cheaper than in major tech hubs.

Tech Mahindra’s “Nxt.Towns” initiative and Wipro’s “Project Lavender” encourage employees to relocate to smaller cities.

Additionally, state governments offer incentives like stamp duty concessions, land benefits, and subsidised power. As jobs move to these Tier 2 cities, so will consumption, potentially replicating the economic multiplier effects seen in Tier 1 cities.

Synergia Takeaways

The global financial system is undergoing a distinct transformation. A decline in the dominance of the West, led by the American dollar, has given rise to alternate centres of economic power in Southeast Asia and a larger, more decentralised financial system. For the time being, this change seems sustainable.

India’s robust economy, diverse market, and favourable investment climate make it a key player on the global business stage, attracting global firms and consulting giants seeking expansion and growth opportunities. Growing geopolitical tension with the West has dented Chinese attractiveness, which India should be able to capitalise upon, provided it has the right processes, regulations and incentives in place. Otherwise, it stands to lose out to other emerging markets in SE Asia and Latin America.

The geo-economic system is crying out for fundamental reforms. Merely tinkering with it cannot get us out of the interregnum. A new avatar of the Bretton Woods deal is urgently needed to revive the international economic architecture and prepare it for the challenges of the 21st century.

BOUNCING BACK

The stagnant Japanese economy seems to be finally getting buoyant after decades of inert prices, wages, and interest rates.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

Japan’s economy has long stood apart from other developed economies. Most notably, since the late 1990s, it went through years of stagnation and deflation, an economic crisis referred to as Japan’s “Lost Decade.” For years, Japan had the dubious distinction of being the only advanced economy with near-zero inflation, interest rates, and wage growth.

Finally, it appears that the Japanese economy is emerging from this period of market troughs as prices and wages rise, raising hopes for growth. Japan’s central bank raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, marking a significant pivot from its long-running aggressive, easy monetary policy.

Is Japan at a turning point, on the verge of transitioning to a more “normal” economy?

AN ECONOMIC TRAJECTORY TO ENVY

It is common knowledge that as of August 1945, Japan and Germany had no economy or industry to speak of. The might of the American firepower had literally sent them back to the Stone Age as starving millions dug through the ruins of their once-great cities seeking sustenance.

In the decades following World War II, Japan’s economy grew rapidly, mainly due to a peak in industrial production and aggressive exports. Japan’s export-oriented economy flourished on global markets by keeping exports cheap, particularly by depreciating the currency. The thriving post-war economy of the U.S. and the reconstruction wave in Europe acted as ideal

In the late 1980s, a loose monetary policy resulted in increased speculation and high stock and real estate valuations. The asset bubble burst at the start of the 1990s, setting off an economic downturn - the Lost Decade. Even though the country remained wealthy, it fell into deflation and growth rates crawled at a snail’s pace until the global financial crisis in 2008 and continued till the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Japan’s chronic deflationary pressure and its near-zero or negative interest rates and wage growth further set it apart from other major economies.

markets to absorb Japanese products. Before World War II, products made in Japan were considered shoddy and cheap rip-offs of those made in the West. After eliminating militarism from the Japanese political and social scene in the 1950s, Japan focused on achieving quality.

As a Japanese engineer said, “Not by an inspection system that takes out defective items on an assembly line but a concerted effort to get it right the first time, and every time!”

In this, they were helped by the work done by W Edwards Deming and Joseph Juran, the acknowledged pioneers in quality management in the industry. Deming is better known for his 14 points for management and Juran for the ‘trilogy of quality planning, control

QUARTERLY

and improvement.” In the 1970s, the Japanese tried to implement all the thumb rules these experts propagated sincerely.

Some efforts to adopt western quality control methods had been in practice in Japan since the 1920s, the most notable being ‘Taylorism.’ This system of scientific management emphasised ‘time discipline’ as advanced by Frederick Winslow Taylor. Today, the world stands in awe of Japan’s strict adherence to this management mantra.

The country developed a diversified manufacturing and services economy and became one of the leading producers of motor vehicles, steel, and high-tech goods - notably consumer electronics. The growth curve peaked in the 1980s with the world’s highest per capita gross national product. The standard of living rose to a level comparable with that of developed countries.

Japan’s incredible growth since the 1960s seemed so unusual to Nobel Laureate economist Simon Kuznets that he categorised it as a unique kind of economy distinct from under-developed or developing economies; he broadly grouped economies into under-developed, developed, Argentina, and Japan.

Even though the country remained wealthy, it fell into deflation and growth rates crawled at a snail’s pace until the global financial crisis in 2008 and continued till the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

Japan’s chronic deflationary pressure and its near-zero or negative interest rates and wage growth further set it apart from other major economies.

The Japanese government persisted with a highly easy monetary policy, aiming to stimulate the economy by making borrowing and spending cheaper for consumers and businesses, injecting funds into the economy and providing tax breaks.

A TRANSITION TO “NORMAL”?

Prices began to rise in early 2022 after the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In 2023, the world’s third-largest economy seemed to stir from its decades-long slumber, witnessing its fastest price rise in over 30 years after stagnant wages since the 1990s. Annual inflation remained above the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ’s) two per cent target for 18 consecutive months. In February 2024, Japan’s core inflation (excluding volatile food prices) was up by 2.8 per cent year-on-year.

Global supply shocks like the Ukraine war sparked the sudden trend of rising prices and wages. The turmoil caused escalated import prices and pushed Japanese companies to raise prices, encouraging the practice of price-setting in an economy long accustomed to keeping prices low. Wages and markets have responded: the country’s biggest employers agreed this year to raise wages by an average of 5.3 per cent, which would be the biggest pay rise since 1991. In February, the Nikkei stock index exceeded its last peak 34 years ago. Witnessing two years of mild inflation and an emerging cycle of rising wages and prices, the central bank raised interest rates.

The BOJ’s hitherto ultra-easy monetary policy has been controversial and criticised for majorly contributing to the yen’s rapid depreciation against the dollar. While the weak yen made exports more competitive, household purchasing power took a toll.

Tourists visiting this pristine island paradise came back shocked at the cost of even basic items. This monetary policy has set it apart from most central banks, which have hiked interest rates in recent years to combat inflation sparked by the pandemic, the Ukraine war, and supply chain pressures. Japan was not immune from this global trend: inflation in Japan hit its highest in more than 40 years in 2023. Still, it was substantially below inflation levels that afflicted countries across the globe in recent years and upped living costs. The policy pivot makes the BOJ the last central bank to end negative interest rates, possibly marking the end of an era where governments and central banks sought to propel growth through easy lending.

Experts opine that Japan is slowly transitioning towards a “normal” direction and that the central bank may eventually be able to implement a regular monetary policy. Japanese central bankers and government officials second this expectation of renewed economic growth. Investors like Morgan Stanley reckon Japan is finally emerging from its economic stagnation.

PREMATURE CELEBRATIONS?

The “cycle” of rising wages and prices is yet to manifest tangibly. This would be indicated by real wage rises (actual purchasing power of wages based on price levels), the resilience of households to wider price rises, and new consumption, saving, and investment patterns. Only then could we ascertain if the Japanese economy is really pivoting towards sustained growth rather than just a passing phenomenon. Japan’s other long-running structural issues like demographics (an ageing and diminishing population) and high public debt persist, particularly due to increased social spending that an ageing population necessitates.

Additionally, an expanded defence budget in response to looming regional geopolitical risks stands to burden state funds further. The defence budget 2023 ($52 billion) saw an unprecedented hike of 26 per cent from 2022, the largest year-on-year nominal increase in planned military spending since at least 1952, per the respected SIPRI. There are indications that Tokyo is committed to nearly doubling its defence spending by 2027, a marked departure from its long-established practice of limiting its defence budget to about one per cent of the GDP.

These inherent challenges prompt many to question the feasibility of a series of interest rate hikes, as witnessed in Europe and the U.S.

Critics contend that the economy isn’t ready for major changes yet. Consumption remains weak, while the yen has depreciated to the lowest in 34 years. It is uncertain whether the wage hikes by major companies will percolate down to small and medium enterprises, which employ the majority of the workforce and have less capacity to invest in improving productivity and human resources or raise wages.

More importantly, wages remain behind inflation, and consumption will not increase until people feel more secure financially. Some consider the BOJ’s decision premature, arguing that Japan’s business cycle is still stagnant, citing falling numbers for public works, machinery orders, and new construction. Inflation could face resistance in a society that is not accustomed to continuously rising prices, a norm that populations in most countries take for granted.

Moreover, foreign investors’ increased interest in Japan is not just anticipation of its new growth but also to do with its relative stability in a volatile geopolitical climate. Japan is reaping the benefits as investors increasingly consider China a less reliable investment destination.

SHIFTING SOCIAL TIDES

On a more positive note, a shrinking workforce has pressured employers to raise pay in recent years to attract and retain workers. It has also made room for more women to enter the workforce.

Gradual generational and cultural changes are taking place in Japan’s workplaces. Economists posit that behavioural shifts in Japanese company culture evidence a potential pivot to “normality” and growth. Companies are more willing to hike the prices of products and services. It is a momentous shift in a nation that has long sworn by low prices and cheap currency as the winning formula - even if it meant low wages and purchasing power. Labour shortages are propelling employees to become more confident and slowly changing employer-employee relationships. These socio-structural changes have the potential to translate into more long-term change across a span of five or ten years.

Prime Minister Kishida Fumio’s proposed “new form” of capitalism promises to encourage growth while incentivising companies to distribute their profits better as wages. This initiative may be a way to set himself apart from his predecessor, Shinzo Abe’s long-running Abenomics, which was criticised as being economics for the wealthy.

The programme will focus on re-skilling and improving labour mobility to enable individuals to move into high-growth sectors. In light of Japan’s workforce crunch, investing in human resources has become key.

Synergia Takeaways

It is yet too early to say with any degree of certainty that Japan’s new cycle of rising prices and wages is here to stay and that it will transition into normal economic growth and result in material benefits. As global markets continue to yo-yo between crests and troughs, we must wait and watch how this Asian economic powerhouse navigates through its challenges.

Shifting company mindsets (like price-setting) and employment dynamics contribute to improved wages, encouraged by a scarce labour supply. However, whether management measures can sustain the growth without ground-breaking fiscal and financial measures remains to be seen.

Globalisation and market equilibrium are hinged on the geopolitical situation of an export-dependent economy. Sadly, this is one factor that remains extremely fragile at this moment as the Gaza war refuses to come to any conclusion, and Russia and the West seem determined to wage a war of attrition that will drain both sides. The tension across the Taiwan Straits may put paid to all efforts of Japanese economists to bring back the good old days.

“SNEEZIN’

SEASON”

Allergic Rhinitis on the Rise: Navigating Diagnosis and Treatment Options

ISambratha Shetty is the COO at Synergia Foundation and holds a Masters’ in Science from the University of Greenwich, UK.

n an article dated 24 Feb 23, the prestigious Times of India fell just short of naming Bangalore the “Allergy Capital of India,” as many long-suffering netizens have christened it in their Twitter/ X posts.

The venerable Times said, “Bengaluru’s salubrious climate may have helped the city score high on the liveability index, drawing migrants in droves, but it does have a downside—seasonal allergies.”

In 2021, the FICCI Research and Analysis Centre (FRAC) conducted a study that found that Bangalore households had a higher percentage of cockroaches and other allergens with particle sizes between 2-20 μm compared to New Delhi, Mumbai, and Hyderabad.

So, while long-suffering residents of Bangalore continue to blame allergies and the notorious traffic for most of their woes, the fact remains that Allergic Rhinitis (AR) is increasingly becoming a public health concern all over India, with a growing number of individuals across various age groups affected by this condition.

Characterised by sneezing, nasal congestion, runny nose, and itching, AR impacts the quality of life for millions of Indians. AR affects approximately 2%-25% of children and 10%-40% of adults in India. The prevalence rates can vary significantly based on geographic location, climate, and urbanisation levels.

Multiple factors, including environmental changes, urbanisation, and genetic predisposition, contribute to the rising prevalence of AR in India. Understanding these factors and the distribution of AR in the Indian

population is essential for effective management and treatment strategies.

Allergic Rhinitis (AR), commonly known as hay fever, affects the nasal mucosa due to the inhalation of allergens like pollens, house dust mites, animal dander, and moulds.

Unlike the common cold, AR is non-contagious and can significantly impair daily activities, varying from mild discomfort to severe impairment. The increase in AR cases globally necessitates better awareness of its symptoms, diagnosis, and treatment options.

UNDERSTANDING ALLERGIC RHINITIS

Allergic Rhinitis manifests with symptoms similar to a common cold, including sneezing, runny nose, nasal obstruction, and itching.

However, while common cold symptoms typically last a few days to a week, AR can persist for much longer, spanning weeks, months, or even becoming a chronic condition.

This condition can significantly affect the quality of life, causing physical discomfort and impacting daily activities and productivity.Understanding common allergens prevalent in India is crucial for managing AR. @

SOME OF THE PROMINENT ALLERGENS INCLUDE:

• Pollens: From trees like Prosopis juliflora (common in arid regions) and grasses like Bermuda.

• House Dust Mites: Predominantly found in bedding and upholstery.

• Moulds: Flourish in humid conditions, particularly during the monsoon season.

• Animal Dander: Pet ownership is on the rise, contributing to increased exposure to animal dander.

It is a risk factor for asthma, with the severity of asthma correlating with the severity of AR. Understanding these triggers can help manage and avoid situations that may worsen the condition.

EXACERBATING FACTORS

A Seasonal Thing: Commonly, AR symptoms peak during specific seasons. First is the Spring (MarchApril), when trees and plants flower and inject higher pollen levels into the atmosphere. Next in severity are the much-awaited Monsoons (August to October), when high humidity provides an ideal ecosystem for moulds and dust mites to proliferate. In cities where the seasonal variations are not so dramatic or marked, then there will be a tendency for the affliction to prolong and get extended. This, perhaps, could cause the prolonged suffering of many Bangaloreans.

Nature’s Payback: Yes, climate change is one of the causes, as rising temperatures and unseasonal heat/

Dr.

Gifty Immanuel MD, PhD, FRCP, FIDSA Medical Director, Synergia Foundation

Allergens (or antigens) are ubiquitous, triggering our immune system to overreact. These allergens could range from environmental antigens to household particles. Repeated exposure to allergens or antigens can prime the immune system, resulting in hypersensitivity. Allergic rhinitis is one such entity. The sensitization of immune cells (mast cells) results in the release of histamine and other inflammatory chemicals on repeated encounters with antigens. Histamine is responsible for the majority of the symptoms associated with allergic rhinitis. Some people with a genetic susceptibility to allergic rhinitis have elevated levels of IgE antibodies. Allergic rhinitis could be a lifelong scourge; avoidance of allergens and mast cell stabilization are some of the strategies to counter it. Further, the hygiene hypothesis proposes early-life exposure to microbes (commensals and pathogens). Evidence is emerging that it may help modulate overt immune reactions, resulting in a lesser incidence of allergic rhinitis.

Dr. Sandra Y. Lin is is the Chair of the Division of Otolaryngology-Head & Neck Surgery at the University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and is also affiliated with Johns Hopkins University, USA

Identifying and understanding the specific triggers of allergic rhinitis in patients helps in tailoring personalized treatment plans that can significantly improve their quality of life.

Specialty: An otolaryngologist with significant contributions to the understanding and management of allergic rhinitis and chronic sinusitis.

cold/ rains with unpredictable weather patterns put the natural cycle of pollen production and mould growth out of synch, further influencing AR prevalence. Pollution in all its forms-vehicular, industrial, construction, etc- does not make life any easier for suffering city dwellers who have no option but to breathe in the poor-quality air with a very high AQI factor. India’s rapid urbanisation and industrialisation extracts its price from the citizens’ health.

MANAGING AR

Due to the overlap in symptoms, AR is often underdiagnosed or misdiagnosed as a common cold in India. Increased public awareness and education about AR can help bridge this gap. Diagnostic procedures such as skin prick tests and IgE blood tests are available, though their accessibility may vary across urban and rural areas.

Treating AR involves multiple approaches ranging from medications to lifestyle changes and home remedies:

Medications: Antihistamines are most commonly used to reduce sneezing, itching, and runny nose by blocking histamine, a substance the immune system releases during an allergic reaction.

Nasal Corticosteroids have proved effective in reducing inflammation and helping with nasal congestion. Examples include fluticasone and budesonide. Decongestants act as short-term measures to relieve nasal congestion. Doctors advise that Oxymetazoline nasal spray, for example, should be used cautiously for up to a week to avoid rebound congestion. Leukotriene Receptor Antagonists help in some cases by blocking the chemicals called leukotrienes, which are part of the immune response to allergens. Immunotherapy involves gradual exposure to increasing amounts of the allergen to build tolerance. This can be administered via allergy shots (subcutaneous) or sublingual tablets.

Home Remedies and Lifestyle Changes: Nasal hygiene is most often recommended. Saline Nasal Irrigation can be used in which the nasal passages are rinsed

“Phil’s made an effortless transition from cold and flu to allergy season.”

with saline solution to remove allergens and reduce inflammation. Devices like neti pots or saline nasal sprays can flush out irritants and relieve congestion. Isotonic Saline Solutions can be used daily to alleviate sustained nasal irritation, thick discharge, and blockage, enhancing overall nasal comfort and facilitating clearer breathing.

Environmental Control: Modern technology enables patients to monitor pollen counts on their smartphones to better plan outdoor activities. Most weather websites and apps provide daily pollen forecasts. Room Air purifiers have become affordable. Fitted with high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters, they can maintain low humidity. Exposure to dust mites can be minimised by using allergen-proof bedding. The most important and doable thing is to regularly clean living spaces to reduce the accumulation of dust and moulds.

Avoiding Triggers: Masks, especially when your weather app warns of high pollen levels, could help. If the household has pets, especially ones that shed a lot of hair, then regular grooming and bathing can reduce pet-induced allergens like animal dander.

Alternative Treatments: While some people consider alternative therapies, such as acupuncture or herbal remedies, it’s essential to consult with healthcare providers before starting any new treatment to ensure it’s safe and effective.

LIVING WITH AR

In the long run, AR patients must learn to live with AR, albeit with a proactive approach to managing its symptoms and thus improving their quality of life. To achieve this level of ‘nirvana,’ one must understand the condition and its triggers. Since the condition can become severe, regular medical consultations are a prerequisite. Healthcare providers play a crucial role in managing AR in India through education, treatment plans, and regular monitoring.The government, for its part, conducts comprehensive public health campaigns

to raise awareness, invests in research and data collection to better understand the epidemiology of AR in India, develops localised treatment protocols, and implements policies to control air pollution and improve overall air quality.

CONCLUSION

Allergic Rhinitis, though a bothersome condition, is manageable through a combination of medical treatments, lifestyle adjustments, and preventive measures. By understanding its triggers and adopting appropriate strategies, individuals can effectively minimise symptoms and their impact on daily life.

The rise in Allergic Rhinitis cases in India highlights the need for a multifaceted approach involving awareness, diagnosis, treatment, and preventive measures. With the right strategies, individuals can manage their symptoms effectively and improve their quality of life. Proactive measures, public health initiatives, and advancements in medical research will be pivotal in addressing the growing burden of Allergic Rhinitis in India.

Dr. Stephen R. Durham is Head of Section for Allergy and Clinical Immunology at NHLI, Imperial College and Professor of Allergy and Respiratory Medicine at Royal Brompton Hospital London.

Identifying and targeting the underlying mechanisms of allergic diseases is crucial for developing effective and long-lasting treatments.

Specialty: Allergy and immunology. Dr. Durham has an extensive research background focused on immune tolerance in allergy, mechanisms, and treatment of allergic rhinitis and severe asthma

VIENNA

HOW THE CITY OF IDEAS CREATED THE MODERN WORLD

Richard Cockett’s “Vienna: How the City of Ideas Created the Modern World” explores Vienna’s unparalleled influence on Western thought, tracing the city’s intellectual and cultural legacy from the turn of the 20th century through the interwar period.

Building on Carl E. Schorske’s foundational work, Cockett expands the historical scope to demonstrate how the ideas born in Vienna have shaped numerous facets of modern life, from philosophy and science to politics and marketing.

Cockett’s narrative un folds in three distinct acts, each meticulously detailing a different phase of Vienna’s in tellectual and cultural evolution. The first act focuses on the early 20th century, highlighting Vien na’s status as an educational and intellectual activity hub.

Major institutions like the University of Vienna played a crucial role, but informal settings such as coffeehouses were equally important, serving as gathering spots where thinkers and artists exchanged ideas.

and neoliberal thought. Cockett skilfully introduces a diverse ensemble of individuals, each instrumental in shaping Vienna’s intellectual landscape and ensuring its enduring impact in various contexts.

Cockett’s compelling storytelling and meticulous research illuminate the profound impact of Viennese thought on the development of the modern world. This book is a must-read for those seeking to understand the history of ideas and the cultural currents that have

This period was marked by a commitment to “exact thinking,” a term attributed to mathematician Kurt Gödel, emphasising methodological rigour and the application of scientific principles across various fields.

This intellectual climate fostered ground-breaking work by figures such as Sigmund Freud in psychoanalysis, Gustav Klimt in art, and Ludwig Wittgenstein in philosophy.

The second act delves into the transformative period of Red Vienna from 1918 to 1934 when socialist governance ushered in social and political reforms. The city became a laboratory for progressive policies, particularly in social housing and public welfare, reflecting the era’s intellectual and political drive for exact thinking to achieve societal advancements.

In the third act, the narrative shifts to the scattering of Viennese intellectuals in the wake of Austria’s annexation by Nazi Germany in 1938.

Many sought refuge in the United States and the United Kingdom, carrying Vienna’s intellectual legacy into new territories. Notable figures like Friedrich Hayek found new platforms to influence economics

Has Vienna’s influence on contemporary Western thought received enough credit in literature and public discourse? What inspired you to write this book?

I was born in 1961 and grew up in the 1970s and 1980s- the heyday of Thatcherism, Ronald Reagan, and free-market economics. Washington consensus was beginning to sweep the world. In India, the ‘Control/ Licence Raj’ bonfire had been lit in the 1990s, slightly belatedly but partly caused by Thatcherism and Reaganism of the West.

As a young academic, I wrote a book called Thinking the Unthinkable, which traced the origin of Thatcherism, Reaganism, and all those new ideas of the times.

In my research, I came across several Austrian Viennese economists whom I had vaguely heard of—people like Friedrich Hajek, Ludwig von Mises, Fritz Matlock, and a couple of others. They have been enormously influential on Mrs Thatcher, Ronald Reagan, and their governments.

Ideas can change how people think and act as a catalyst to change the world of ideas- change mindsets, views, practices and governments. These ideas were growing up in Vienna in the 1900s, 1920s, and 30s. Who invented shopping malls? The mall has changed urban geography throughout the world. Well, that was invented by a Viennese, Victor Gruen, who’d grown up in Vienna in the 1920s and then emigrated to America.

How did the first computer come about? Well, that was largely due to the mathematician Kurt Girdle, a Viennese again, brought up in the 1920s, and a member of the Mathematics Colloquium in Vienna and an Austro-Hungarian called John von Neumann. They

were responsible for the birth of the computer and the modern digital age. Where did child psychology come from? Anna Freud was the daughter of Freud, and Melanie Klein was also Viennese. Where did modern advertising come from? Modern marketing and advertising, now worth billions of dollars, was largely invented by two Austrians- Ernest Dichter and Lars Feld.

What makes this book unique is its collective approach to these Viennese thinkers. While some of these individuals have been studied in detail individually, no one has ever considered how they were intimately connected and how they came up with these extraordinary, life-changing, world-changing ideas in one city in a very short amount of time.

This is the essence of my book, and it’s what makes it a fascinating journey of discovery. Viennese contribution to Western civilisation has been clouded for two reasons, an impression that the book aims to rectify.

First, being German-speaking, Austrians are lumped with Germans regarding intellectual studies and influences in the West. There is a lot of literature on the impact of the German diaspora that fled Nazi prosecution after 1933.

But all were not Germans; many were Viennese. The Viennese contribution was distinct as this city had a distinct intellectual history and culture. But this was not recorded adequately.

Another reason why they’ve always been understudied and underappreciated is that many of them fled to the West as refugees or immigrants, and many of them changed their names, especially in America. They did as much as they could to sort of disguise their roots.

This was a standard sort of assimilation at the time. The founder of the modern advertising and market research business, Ernst Dicta, was born Ernst Dichter, which sounds German.

When he came to America, he changed his name to Earnest Dichter and took elocution lessons so he could speak American. So, Ernst Dichter, with his bow tie, then sort of faded into a general sort of Americanism of the 1950s and 1960s.

Some Austrians and Viennese who fled persecution from Vienna retained bad memories of Vienna and did not want to be associated with Vienna or Austria again. Yet my book argues that they were associated with Vienna all their lives. They carried Vienna with them, the same mindset and modus operandi. That’s why I think it’s been underappreciated.

The golden age of Hollywood was made up largely of Viennese immigrants. The great director of Golden Age Hollywood in the 40s, 50s, and 60s was probably Billy Wilder, who, again, was born in Austro-Hungarian. Arnold Schwarzenegger, above all, is probably the most famous import to America. Other famous Viennese were Fred Zimmermann, Fritz Lang and Erich Korngold.

Lise Meitner, the ‘mother of the atom bomb’, was also a Viennese who wrote the first theoretical explanation of how nuclear fission could work. The founders of art therapy were all Viennese women.

Viennese covered every aspect of human endeavour, from food to kitchen design to architecture and films to economics and politics. Most importantly, they invented and defined the knowledge economy, which I presume is a phrase well-known in India.

This is exactly what Prime Minister Modi wants to aspire to. Knowledge economy was originally invented and analysed by two Viennese, the management guru Peter Drucker and the economist Fritz Matlock, who grew up in Vienna in the 1900s and 1920s and emigrated to America, where they had an enormous impact.

Freud, the great intellectual, invented psychoanalysis in Vienna in the early 19th century, which gave rise to the whole industry of psychoanalysis, psychology, psychotherapy, etc. Another Viennese, Eddie Bernays, applied Freud’s ideas of the unconscious to market research to discover what drove consumers to buy things.

Q: What were your most surprising discoveries in researching this book?

The nice thing about the book is that you instinctively know this is an important subject. The Viennese were very important in architecture, and Californian modernism was largely Viennese. So everywhere I looked, my instincts were confirmed, and I found more and more Viennese in all the different fields when I had no idea they had actually contributed.

Q: In what ways does Vienna’s intellectual milieu differ from that of other major centres of the same era, such as Berlin or Paris? What special qualities do you believe make Vienna stand out?

From the early 1900s to about 1934, Vienna was at its peak intellectually and culturally. Of course, there were other big European cities like Paris, London, Berlin and Moscow; London and Paris were great cosmopolitan centres of empires.

What made Vienna unique is that it was a city of immigrants, the capital of the vast, rambling Austro-Hungarian Empire, presided over by a dynasty called the Habsburgs that stretched from Western Austria, bordering Switzerland all the way East to Ukraine. This was not an empire of conquest but one of dynastic marriages.

The bright young people of the empire came to Vienna for education, a heterodox collection of people of many races and religions.

Vienna was where they connected, which accounted for the ferment of ideas of different disciplines and cultures, all coming together, bouncing off each other and bringing forth change, evolution, and new ideas. The visitors ultimately adopted a very specific identity,

that of a Viennese. Unsurprisingly, many enlightened, humane and progressive ideas came out of Vienna.

The Austrians organised their intellectual groupings into what were called circles. These were informal discussion groups where ten or twelve people met to discuss ideas. It was a safe space for people to meet and debate ideas in a nonpartisan and nonpolitical way.

The whole idea was to discuss ideas in good faith, the important thing being they could disagree with each other, and the world moved on through this safe disagreement. The most famous one was for philosophy, the Vienna Circle. These were the foundations of modern think tank sets.

Vienna was also the birthplace of the biggest reaction against such a liberal, progressive regime. It’s also the birthplace of National Socialism, some of the politics of organised antisemitism, protest, fascism, and National socialism.

This is where Adolf Hitler learned his antisemitism and his fascism, and the political leaders whom he acknowledged and raved about enormously in Mein Kampf were Viennese. Hitler came to Vienna at an early age and stayed there as a destitute artist in the years before the First World War.

Vienna was also a place of huge diversity of views, and again, all reacting against each other and interacting with each other. That’s what made Vienna unique at the time.

Q: Could you say something about the sort of thought leadership that is important in building Bangalore as a thought leadership place?

The contrast between Vienna, 1900 or 1920 and Bangalore and other such places today is that Vienna was very politically light. It was intellectually and culturally rich, but in terms of politics, the forces restricting politics were actually very low and light in their touch.

The Austro-Hungarian Empire was governed by a very light hand; it was a remarkably free, open, and unrestricted society. Nobody had passports, and you were allowed to travel wherever you wanted.

Nobody was keeping an eye on you. There was no surveillance in the society. There was barely any censorship.

The lack of a formal political society meant that this was a cultural and intellectual society that could flourish in retrospect. It would have been much better if there had been formal political structures to keep Vienna from collapsing and to keep the forces that were against liberal, progressive Vienna from destroying it, to keep Nazism and fascism in check.

In India and Britain, the problem is usually that there is too much politics, especially formal politics. This means that forums like the Synergia Foundation have become more important; they are carving out nonpolitical spaces for people to talk in and, most importantly, to disagree in modern politics often.

This is very true and increasingly true of India, which tends to forge heterogeneous cultures, i.e., cultures that have a large mainstream, which is always trying to expand, squeezing alternative ideas and alternative cultures out.

The obvious lesson of Vienna is that if you truly want to be intellectually or culturally creative, you want as many people as possible to participate; it is all about the margins coming to the centre.

In Vienna, most of these processes happened because people had bright ideas and the freedom to apply ideas to processes and aspects of real life, which otherwise would have been entirely neglected.

Some of these ideas would have been dangerous at the time. For example, a lot of people hated psychoanalysis, thought it was cranky and unscientific and would prefer not to have had anything to do with it. The Nazis dismissed it as ‘Jewish Science’ and banned psychology, psychoanalysis, etc., from Germany and Central Europe.

And that’s why all the psychoanalysts, most of them Jewish, had to flee Austria and Germany. America and Britain reaped the dividends by allowing them into their countries.

They transformed all these industries in America, invented shopping malls, the advertising industry, the focus group quantitative sociology, invented market research, etc. Decades later, it all came back across the Atlantic to Europe. But the people who reaped the monetary value of all this were the Americans. It is about the free flow of immigrants who brought their ideas with them and had the freedom to apply them to American business, culture, and way of life. That’s the lesson for our own time.

RICHARD COCKETT

British historian, journalist and author. He is a regional editor of The Economist, with experience in Mexico, Central America, Africa and Singapore.

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