INSIGHTS JULY 2023 DIGITAL

Dear Friends:

Greetings from the Synergia Foundation!

Over the years, India’s friendship with the state of Israel overcame the hesitancy inherent in the earlier post-independence decades when Yasser Arafat was a hero of socialist India. Realpolitik marks our foreign policy now, and the biggest gain has been an Indo-Israel strategic partnership that gets stronger every day.

Therefore, what has been happening in this small yet significant nation, in the heart of the Middle East, since January this year is of great concern to New Delhi.

While it is entirely a self-inflicted injury by a deeply polarised society, and India has little role in its solution, Indian judicial experts have been visiting Tel Aviv to share the Indian experience of an independent judiciary within a complex polity. We bring to our readers the insights and sentiments of some distinguished Israeli and Indian citizens.

Recently, we held a webinar with high-level Ukrainian personalities on Indo-Ukraine relations. Evidently, Kyiv is keen to leverage India’s growing economic heft into its reconstruction drive, which will commence soon, even while the destructive, senseless war continues.

We share the frank and forthright views of the Ukrainian side on various bilateral aspects and the future course of the war.

Sincerely yours

Looking at the domestic scene, there are strong expectations that soon India will have its Integrated Theatre Command, at least a few to begin this vast transformation. By all accounts, this would be an inflexion point for the Indian Armed Forces long attuned to having near independent service turfs to rule. Our insights are aimed to highlight the major issues involved in making India’s kinetic power truly a multidimensional one, ready for the challenges of the future.

We continue with our ‘Neighbourhood Series’ with the spotlight on Nepal and Myanmar this time. Going beyond our shores, we examine the consequences of electoral process giving way to autocracy in Cambodia.

On climate change, we are analysing the impact of FTAs on the environment, the unprecedented heat wave that swept across the globe this summer and India trying to deal with the challenge posed by EUs Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Another pillar of Synergia regarding human security is our panel of medical experts who, in this issue, look at India’s medical tourism with an objective eye.

We hope our esteemed readers will continue supporting us as we strive to further evidence-based research on strategic issues with global resonance.

Maj. Gen. Ajay Sah Chief Information Officer

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CBAMS: A DEAL BREAKER

Middle East’s only true democracy is in upheaval as civil society, fearing the rise of authoritarianism, fights the government’s campaign to cut the judiciary to size.

ISRAEL: A DEMOCRATIC OVERTURN? A LEGAL PERSPECTIVE

It is important to understand the root cause of the ongoing turmoil in Israel that lies in the labyrinth of its laws.

GEO - POLITICS

India has opposed the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism CBAM proposal, citing concerns about unilateral and discriminatory trade barriers.

INDIA: NAVIGATING POSTPANDEMIC REALITIES

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INDIA & UKRAINE: A SHARED VISION FOR THE FUTURE

INDIA’S NEIGHBOURHOOD

INDIA – NEPAL: A FRAGILE FRIENDSHIP

Under these stressful and disruptive times, India and Nepal can no longer take their historical relations and Hindu links for granted.

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Given their historical ties and India’s growing influence on the world stage, there is immense potential for India -Ukraine partnership to flower despite the war.

The economic fallout of the pandemic and increasing Western disenchantment with China’s stranglehold on global value chains opens a new vista for the Indian economy.

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ENVIRONMENT

CLIMATE CHANGE & FTAs - AN OBSCURE ALLIANCE

MYANMAR: GATEWAY TO INDIA’S ACT EAST POLICY

As its geographical neighbour and long-standing partner, India cannot afford the luxury of viewing Myanmar exclusively through “Democracy Lenses.”

SECURITY

THEATRE COMMANDS – FINALLY A REALITY!

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As humankind hurtles recklessly towards a climate Armageddon, can FTAs mitigate the impact of unbridled commerce on the environment?

CLIMATE CHANGES – POINT OF NO RETURN?

Are the current heat waves evidence that climate change is speeding up? And how can we turn back the green clock?

GLOBAL SCAN

By all accounts, Indian Armed Forces are at an inflexion point as the formation of their first Theatre Commands gets closer to becoming a reality.

HEALTH CARE

“GLOBAL HEALING, LOCAL AILING?”

“Private health care may be thriving, but India’s public system is in dire need. This alarming disparity is a challenge we must confront.”

PAGE PAGE

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In a widely discredited election, Cambodia has given way to dynasty politics, sparking fear and distrust.

ISRAEL: A DEMOCRATIC OVERTURN?

Middle East’s only true democracy is in upheaval as civil society, fearing the rise of authoritarianism, fights the government’s campaign to cut the judiciary to size.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

Since its establishment in 1948, Israel has remained entangled in a protracted dispute with the Palestinians and its Arab neighbours, centred around the ownership of land revered as sacred by Judaism, Christianity, and Islam adherents. It would not be an overstatement if it were said that the state of Israel has been perpetually at war with its historical enemies and now with itself. Naturally, persistent security apprehensions consistently influence the political landscape, characterized by the presence of volatile coalition governments.

With a coalition in power with an unassailable majority, for the first time in many years, it was hoped that Israel could look forward to a period of relatively stable political scenario. However, the nature of the coalition, which has a distinct right-wing orientation, has created the very instability it was expected to dispel!

The protests, ongoing since January, have been some of the largest in the country’s history drawing out people from all strata of society, including former Prime Ministers and other notable military and civil society personalities.

At the centre of the impasse lies the ruling coalition’s efforts to curb the judiciary’s powers. Moderates fear, not unjustifiably, this would open the doors to an unchecked majoritarian rule. In the absence of a constitution, written or otherwise, the independent judiciary

In the absence of a constitution, written or otherwise, the independent judiciary uses the basic laws in Israel to thwart the overbearing moves of a resurgent executive. This has been especially noteworthy in the past when the ruling elites have been found to function beyond the pale of law.

uses the basic laws in Israel to thwart the overbearing moves of a resurgent executive. This has been especially noteworthy in the past when the ruling elites have been found to function beyond the pale of law.

The current coalition in power seeks to ‘correct’ these by-passing regulations that would erode the independence of the judiciary. The proposed changes would make it easier for the government to reject the court’s decisions.

They would give lawmakers and their appointees effective power over the committee of nine individuals that appoints judges. This would essentially give the government complete control over the judiciary (by appointing suitably pliant judges) and make it easier for them to pass convenient laws.

NOT SO REASONABLE!

Israel’s judicial system is governed by a collection of “basic laws” enacted by the Knesset over time, outlining

institutions and establishing rights. During the 1990s, following over four decades of relatively restrained interpretation, the Supreme Court unexpectedly asserted the supremacy of these laws beyond ordinary legislation.

It thereby claimed the authority to override the Knesset if it deemed these laws to be violated. This form of judicial activism deviated from the initial expectations surrounding the passage of the basic laws, which often garnered only narrow majorities.

Consequently, this development has fostered a perception that the judiciary is a creation of the former left-leaning secular establishment, alienating itself from the perspectives of religious and right-wing Israelis.

The judicial reform bill aims to remove the judges’ capacity to label executive decisions as “unreasonable.” The initial component of Netanyahu’s reform plan, commonly referred to as the “reasonableness clause” bill, was approved by the Knesset, the Israeli parliament. This action has ignited an unparalleled crisis and exposed a profound societal rift.

Israel functions under a common law framework, lacking a distinctly outlined constitution. Instead, it has opted for a step-by-step approach to legislation, creating basic laws akin to constitutional articles.

However, these basic laws are notably malleable. Like many common law systems, particularly the British tradition, a significant portion of the legislative principles derive from a historical backdrop of judicial rulings.

The reasonableness doctrine emerged within this context, essentially entailing a judicial evaluation of

administrative decisions. It is important to note that reasonableness does not extend to laws themselves; the court does not invalidate laws solely on unreasonable grounds. Instead, it occasionally assesses choices made by ministers, the government, or officials.

For instance, this might involve cases where conflicts of interest arise or decisions are hastily made without considering significant consequences, leading to whimsical and capricious outcomes that could be subject to annulment in any other nation governed by the rule of law. Israel’s notion of reasonableness encompasses these aspects, having expanded notably, especially during the 1980s.

While resembling administrative review mechanisms in other countries, Israel’s interpretation holds distinctiveness and even those in opposition have shown openness to some level of reform, albeit differing from the government’s endorsed reforms.

CUTTING THE JUDICIARY TO SIZE

The upcoming bill is anticipated to introduce two significant and radical alterations. Firstly, it will profoundly curtail the Supreme Court’s authority to overturn decisions made by the Knesset, possibly enabling a mere majority within the Knesset to supersede Supreme Court rulings.

Secondly, it will grant the government a pivotal role in selecting judges, a responsibility currently vested in a panel dominated by lawyers and judges, outnumbering politicians.

This legislation stems from a coalition government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, brought into existence following the November elections, and comprising fac-

Source :The National

tions from Israel’s far-right spectrum. While Israel’s uncodified constitution already possesses imperfections, these alterations stand to exacerbate the situation, potentially granting nearly unrestrained authority to the majority.

Such a shift could potentially diminish the nation’s prosperity, deepen internal divisions, and heighten external vulnerabilities.

The Supreme Court has been a thorn in the side of the ultra-nationalist lobby who, accuse the judiciary of exhibiting a left-leaning and elitist inclination to intrude into the turf of the executive. Since many Supreme Court verdicts have favoured minorities (read Palestinians), the apex court is accused of anti-nationalism.

To correct this imbalance, among the proposed reforms, one involves granting the government the authority to appoint additional members to a committee responsible for overseeing Supreme Court appointees. This potential alteration could empower Netanyahu to populate the court with judges who share a more favourable disposition.

While officially excluded from direct engagement in the endeavour due to his ongoing trial on contested corruption allegations, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has asserted that these adjustments seek to bring equilibrium and variety to the judicial bench.

Additionally, he has levied allegations against the media, claiming they have distorted the proposal’s nature and contributed to exacerbating protests to destabilise his administration.

Advocates of the new law argue that this adjustment could enhance governance efficiency while retaining alternative benchmarks for judicial assessment, such as proportionality. Detractors contend that the absence of constitutionally grounded checks and balances could foster corruption and instances of power abuse.

WHAT ABOUT DEMOCRACY?

The approved reforms are poised to substantially undermine the nation’s democracy by eroding the potency of the judicial system, which serves as the sole mechanism to check the government’s exercise of power. Critics contend that these reforms may offer protection to Mr Netanyahu, who is presently undergoing trial for alleged corruption and could potentially facilitate unbridled legislative actions by the government.

The government’s stance is that the judiciary’s influence on legislation is excessive, with a perceived bias toward liberal causes and a perceived lack of democratic principles in the selection of judges.

One of the inherent dangers of this bill lies in its potential to erode the system of checks and balances, as

these are already relatively fragile. Unlike many other legislatures, the Knesset’s unicameral nature, coupled with the limited power of Israel’s mostly symbolic president to veto laws, underscores this risk.

Under the proposed reforms, a government operating with a narrow majority could exercise significant latitude in its actions, verging on a form of rule-driven predominantly by the majority—a trajectory that Prime Minister Netanyahu has been inclined towards for some time.

Proponents of the bill argue that it is facilitating the supremacy of “the will of the people.” However, the fabric of liberal democracies necessitates more than this simplistic concept.

Essential to such systems are institutions that counterbalance the concentration of power in any individual’s hands, ensuring safeguards against potential abuses and safeguarding the rights of both individuals and minority groups.

Critics say the changes will weaken the courts and hand unbridled power to the government, endangering rights and liberties. Critics fear Mr Netanyahu wants to leverage the judicial push to freeze or void his trial. He has denied having any such plan.

The opposition also says his nationalist allies want to weaken the Supreme Court to establish more settlements on land the Palestinians seek for a state. Ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties in the coalition want to pass a law exempting their community from service in the conscript military, which they worry may be struck down by the court if its powers are not cut back.

Analysts express concerns about the precarious state of democracy. Many are apprehensive that while Prime Minister Netanyahu maintains his innocence in an ongoing corruption trial, his hard-right administration could curtail judicial autonomy, thereby inviting significant diplomatic and economic repercussions. Surveys indicate that most Israelis, primarily preoccupied with escalating living costs and security concerns, find the proposed overhaul unappealing.

In the Israeli context, if a slight majority – for example, 61 out of 120 members, or currently 64 out of 120 members of the Knesset – were inclined to enact a bill that curtails minority or individual rights, the absence of a second house, a higher chamber, or a presidential veto becomes evident.

Only one judicial entity exists, the Supreme Court, operating as the High Court of Justice, possessing the ability to invalidate Knesset legislation.

ENDANGERING SECURITY?

For a nation surrounded by potential enemies that has undergone the trauma of three wars for its very ex-

Excerpts from the letter submitted to the PM Mr. Benjamin Netanyahu

To Prime Minister Mr. Binyamin Netanyahu,

We, IDF chiefs of staff, Israel Police commissioners, former heads of the Mossad and the Shin Bet, retired IDF generals chiefs and retired heads of divisions in the Mossad and the Shin Bet, see you as the person directly responsible for the serious damage to the IDF and Israel’s security...............................

We place full responsibility on you for harming the IDF and Israel’s security and expect you to take responsibility, to stop the legislation. We expect you to lead a process of dialog and agreed amendments that will have broad consensus among the people and in the Knesset.

We, graduates of Israel’s wars, feel like “the eve of the Yom Kippur war” and are showing a bright red ‘stop’ sign to you and your government................................................................

istence, and a long-drawn terror campaign directed at its citizens, security forms the core of its national policy.

This was underscored when Mr Netanyahu’s own Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, came out against the legal change. He was summarily sacked by the Prime Minister but forced by a storm of public protests; he was compelled to reverse his decision after 15 days.

It did not take long for the upheaval to infect the security sector. Mandatory national service for men and women is the melting pot where every citizen imbibes the nation’s strong military culture.

It began with over 1000 Israeli reservists’ pilots, who form the backbone of the Israeli Airforce, quit from their voluntary service, effectively grounding the entire force.

They were followed by army reservists and even Shin Bet and Mossad members. Reservists and military veterans have made more than 20 initiatives against what is being called a ‘regime overhaul.’ Many had decided to resign from the military, and youngsters due for national service have publicly refused to report for duty, risking a prison sentence or even worse.

The potential for destabilization within Israel looms if Arab citizens perceive their rights inadequately safeguarded by the state.

Israel’s economic prosperity hinges on fluid capital movement and a globally oriented tech workforce, responsible for 54% of goods-and-services exports in 2021.

The apprehension regarding unbridled rule by the majority could escalate tensions in the West Bank. Moreover, the notion that Israel is veering away from its liberal principles risks eroding support from its crucial security ally, the United States, as underscored by

President Joe Biden’s recent signals. It is impossible for Israel to project a sense of unity when the nation is undergoing deep social division. There are real fears that its enemies would be emboldened by the disunity triggered by the controversial reforms.

It may be recollected that after Israel’s 2000 invasion of Southern Lebanon, a battered and bruised but undefeated Hezbollah had called Israeli society “as weak as a cobweb”. Its defiant chief, Nasrallah, recently repeated these views predicting the “disappearance of the Jewish state before it can celebrate its 80th year of independence in 2028.”

ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS

During what has been termed “the coalition’s initiatives” or “the legislative initiatives,” Israel has undergone unprecedented uncertainty. Leading economists in Israel and abroad have voiced strong censure towards these initiatives, sounding alarms about their potentially detrimental effects on the country’s economy.

The proposed constraints on the judicial system’s independence could impede growth and potentially lead to a downgrade of Israel’s international credit rating.

A collective letter, known as the “economists’ letter,” was released on January 25, endorsed by hundreds of economic experts. It cautioned against potential harm to the Israeli economy if the legislative initiatives were enacted, emphasising the lasting damage to economic well-being and expansion.

Subsequently, investment banks, global organizations, credit rating agencies, heads of state, and eminent economists worldwide appealed to the Israeli government to reassess these legislative endeavours, highlighting the prospective adverse economic consequences.

On March 7, 2023, after issuing a remarkable caution against the industry proposals, the international credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded Israel’s credit rating outlook from positive to stable on April 14.

The consensus regarding the interplay between political institutions and long-term economic prosperity revolves around the concept that “good” institutions, which facilitate economic development and growth, incorporate a system of checks and balances that curtail government power.

Crucial oversight mechanisms, including constitutional boundaries, an independent judiciary, the primacy of the rule of law, and a proficient and autonomous bureaucracy, are of significant import. These attributes are intricately linked to the current legislative initiatives and constitute the focal point of the ongoing public discourse within Israel.

It is worth noting that several features of Israel’s economy evoke concerns about the potential for swift and substantial economic repercussions. Firstly, the

country’s high-tech sector is susceptible to fluctuations in the judicial and governmental landscape. This sector heavily depends on foreign direct investments, which can swiftly shift to other markets if the domestic environment becomes unfavourable.

Additionally, a persistent risk exists of a notable “brain drain,” as highly skilled professionals integral to the local high-tech industry possess significant mobility and may choose to leave due to unfavourable conditions.

Another critical concern in the Israeli context pertains to the segmented structure of its society. Existing literature underscores that institutions favouring smaller population groups with minimal restrictions can hinder long-term growth.

Such institutions prioritize sectorial interests over national economic resources, obstructing efficient resource allocation and creating an environment counterproductive to innovation.

Equally significant is the consideration of the economic damage that has already materialized in Israel over recent months. Evidently, this is reflected in disparities in share prices between Israel and other nations, the depreciation of the shekel to the US dollar, and the decrease in investment volume in the local high-tech industry, surpassing the global trend of declining high-tech investments.

GLOBAL IMPACT

The deeper worry is that the right-wing coalition in power is working according to its narrative, with its far-right components trying to put into place what they have intended for a long time but failed to get the requisite majority in the Knesset.

In the surcharged atmosphere of the Middle East, an ultra-right-wing in total control of Israel could potentially light the fuse of the powder keg with catastrophic effects for the economy and relations with Western allies, who have already voiced concern.

A judiciary no longer considered independent could also strip Israel of one of its main defences in international legal cases.

The Biden administration is caught in a complex situation. On the one hand, President Biden is notably pro-Israel, embodying a traditional Democratic stance even more supportive of Israel than the average Democrat today.

Additionally, the United States places considerable reliance on its partnership with Israel, a lyncpin for its envisioned strategy in navigating Middle East affairs.

This strategy entails a greater reliance on regional partners, particularly those with robust military capabilities, with Israel at the forefront of these vital alliances. This unease stems partially from the fact that the

partnership between Israel and the United States goes beyond mere shared interests; it rests upon the foundation of the belief that they uphold intrinsic shared values, primarily democracy.

Preserving Israel’s democratic character has consistently been a cornerstone of its partnership with the United States.

The second facet pertains to foreign policy. Recent months have witnessed a concentrated effort in Jerusalem, Riyadh, and Washington to advance Israeli-Saudi normalization, even amidst scepticism from various quarters for diverse reasons.

This endeavour takes place against the backdrop of a formal state of war between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The outcome would represent a state of peace, marking a momentous transformation in Israel’s regional positioning, with potentially far-reaching implications for the broader Middle East.

This development would surpass the significance of the Abraham Accords, as Saudi Arabia, due to its size and influence, holds greater importance than previous partners like the UAE.

Moreover, it would likely involve substantial measures by Israel concerning the Palestinian situation, which would bear relevance not only in other contexts but also in the ongoing domestic discourse.

Assessment

What is being enacted here goes beyond mere policy adjustments; what is being put into motion constitutes foundational shifts in the nation’s constitutional fabric and will deeply impact the nationhood of Israel.

Presently, the legislation per se may not be an instance of abuse, even though it does entail a modification to the constitution. Nonetheless, it can potentially create a pathway for the government to make decisions unchecked, a scenario where the absence of a Supreme Court would leave no avenue for restraint. This could lead to unchecked majoritarian influence. From this perspective, it constitutes a significant encroachment upon the foundations of democracy.

Israel is being watched closely around the globe. Observers voice apprehensions regarding the fragility of democracy due to judicial reform. The country is exposed to escalated vulnerabilities in the business environment, pessimistic market sentiment, and increasing anticipations of impending damage. While a drop in Moody’s ratings is a strong indication of market sentiment, the economic and diplomatic implications of the reform appear considerable.

‘I cannot accept Netanyahu continuing to lead the country’

- Former Mossad

This judicial crisis is unprecedented. And it is the beginning of the constitutional crisis, which will last several months. Passing these laws would ultimately raise the question of whether Israel remains a viable democracy. At the root of the problem lies the lack of a formal, unitary, written constitution.

NETANYAHU, THE LIKUD PARTY AND THE ULTRA-ORTHODOX

The ruling side won the election with a difference of 3000 votes. Those 3000 votes granted the Netanyahu-led coalition a four-member majority in the Knesset due to how the seats have been apportioned according to Israel’s electoral law. The four-member majority does not reflect the actual condition because the truth is that the nation is almost neatly split.

Israel will have to see how it addresses this situation it is in while the world looks on seeing in it a test case for what happens to a liberal democracy when its defining attributes are gradually sheared away.Constitutionally, Is rael could be diagnosed as ‘sick,’ with a ‘sick leader’ guided by a ‘sick constitution.’ The Prime Minister is doing with the economy and with Israel what he has been doing with his health!

The Minister of National Security of Israel, Mr Ben-Gvir, is involved in the murder of a former prime minister. This shows how very strange Israel is and how it has turned out to be. The Ultra-Orthodox Jewish population, which comprises about 15-20 per cent of the nation, has a reputation for not contributing to the advancement and safety of Israel. Most people who contribute to science, technology, and education and are part of the ‘startup nation’ are rebelling against the government and trying to save the country.

REVERSE EXODUS

There is a worrying brain drain panning out in Israel; over 500 doctors are currently negotiating a trans-

REGIONAL ISSUES

The inevitable instability in Israel paves the way for increased security risks from Israel’s neighbours, with whom Israel maintains shaky relationships at the best of times. Israel’s ties with Iran went downhill after the Khomeini takeover. Iran is an important country today because it is trying to develop nuclear military capabilities. This has been a subject of concern worldwide.

My personal view (which is not the view of the government of today), is that we could ultimately reach an understanding with Iran. Between Israel and Iran, there is no genuine conflict of interest. We do not have a territorial conflict, we do not share a border, and there is no genuine reason for Israel and Iran to be at odds.

Following Chinese-led discussions, Tehran and Riyadh agreed last week to resume diplomatic relations and reopen embassies within two months. The fact that China could carry off such an arrangement should be investigated further. The Chinese framework could provide a different approach to the Iranian-Israeli conflict, which Tel Aviv had not tried before.

THE AMERICAN ANGLE

U.S. President Biden put forward prominent and open messages to Benjamin Netanyahu criticizing the “revolutionary stage” Israel finds itself in and called upon the nation to mend its ways.

The U.S. is pressing very hard, especially on the economic aspect. If Israel’s economic grading carried out by international companies such as Morgan Stanley declines, it will have a sizeable effect on Israel’s economy and the daily lives of its citizens. The former governor of the ‘Bank of Israel’ had said that this could lead to “an existential threat.”

There is constant pressure from the U.S. from all possible channels, such as the White House, the Secretary of State, the Congress, and the military.

CONCLUSION

Israel is going through a crisis in stages. It has not reached the stage of no return yet. However, Israel does not have infinite time in its favour.

EFRAIM

HALEVY

Former Director of Mossad and served from 1998-2002. From 1990–1995, he served as second-in-command to Mossad Director Shabtai Shavit.

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Efraim Halevy was the Mossad Director during my tenure as India’s Ambassador to Israel (1998-2001) and listening to his analysis of the political turmoil in Israel was hugely instructive. As the Director, Halevy served three different Prime Ministers from different ends of Israel’s political spectrum; and he was highly regarded by all for exceptional professionalism.

Halevy explained that the Netanyahu government’s bid to remove the Israeli Supreme Court’s power to judge the “reasonableness” of legislation was rooted in the political requirements of the ruling coalition and posed dangers for the future. In the absence of a written Constitution, the courts are one of the only checks on the executive power of government, which is essential for democracy. That was why millions had demonstrated in the streets. A later talk by the head of the Israeli Bar Association revealed that the Supreme Court’s use of the “reasonableness” test was grounded in Israel’s legal legacy and was, in fact, quite reasonable!

It was reported in the media that the Attorney General had asked the Supreme Court to examine the validity of an amendment by the government-using its Knesset majority- to Israel’s Basic Law, which would make it possible to impeach a PM only on medical grounds and that too by special majority. The Court may face the extraordinary situation of having the Knesset seeking to be represented by its own legal advisor in addition to the Attorney-General, who usually appears for the government. This could aggravate the prolonged challenge to the institutional structures on which Israeli democracy has been built.

The crisis is usually rationalized by supporters of the government- in demographic terms, as the loud complaining of traditional elites (mostly secular Ashkenazis) who are being displaced by a new majority representing hitherto marginalized Sephardic communities, the ultra-Orthodox Jews (Haredim) and settler-nationalist groups. Even the vehement protests of military reservists, the backbone of Israel’s formidable military capability, are explained way in this fashion. This ignores the fact that the ultra-orthodox do not join compulsory military service like other Israelis and contribute little to the economy. And it is their loud complaining, along with PM Netanyahu’s determination to cling to power, which precipitated the crisis situation.

The financial subsidies the ultra-Orthodox receive -to enable them to spend their working lives engaged in religious studies- have continued for seven decades. Their de-facto exemption from military service dates back even earlier to the period after the independence of Israel in 1948.

This did not matter a great deal when the Haredim were a small community of 35,00 people. Today they are over 1.2 million- almost 15 per cent of the population and with very high birthrates, likely to be one-third of Israel in the next two generations. Clearly, the present system by which other Israelis carry the burden is unsustainable.

As far back as 1998, the Israeli Supreme Court ruled that the Haredim exemptions from military service violated the principle of equality. By then, political parties representing the growing Haredim population were well represented in the Knesset and determined to preserve their privileges. They had leverage because of Israel’s fragmented proportional representation system in which getting a Knesset majority is almost impossible without coalitions of multiple parties.

Successive governments grappled with the issue of the Haredi military exemptions till, in 2014, a law was passed ending them. In 2015 this was amended under pressure from the Haredi parties. In 2017 the amended law was again struck down in the courts as being violative of equality. This was one of the triggers for the attempt by Netanyahu’s government- now dependent as it is on Haredi parties’ support for survival- to pass a law drastically limiting the ability of the Supreme Court to review the legislation.

Earlier coalitions have broken on the issue of military service exemptions. How long the current coalition will survive remains open to question. It contains extremist elements provoking military confrontations with Palestinians, as well as Haredim, who expect the sons and daughters of secular Israelis to do the fighting for them!

What seems certain that the coalition will stagger from one crisis to another. The crisis has damaged Israel’s political image among its allies, including the U.S. It has begun to take a toll on the economy, as investors and the brilliant technological elites are disturbed by the continuing instability and uncertainty. There are gloomy predictions of loss of military capability, but that seems less likely. The Israel Defence Forces remain highly trained and alert. The youth of Israel and the reservists may have serious differences with the govern ment of the day, but when needed, they will always rally to the defence of Eretz Israel. What policymakers need to worry about is keep ing their links with the U.S. intact.

RANJAN MATHAI

Former Foreign Secretary of India, Ambassador to Israel, France and High commisioner to UK.

The Knesset is 120 representatives, and the government today has 64 members, so they control the Knesset. And this is why the only check and balance with the acts of the government is the court. The Supreme Court is authorized to give orders to the government. But the reasons/standards by which the Supreme Court will review the acts of the government were never defined by law. It was only defined by the case law of the Supreme Court. If the court is in agreement that a certain act of the government is radically unreasonable, it may prevent the government from taking it or exercising any power. Now unreasonableness sometimes interprets as acting unequally, and it was related to laws enacted retroactively.

This amendment of the judiciary allegedly prevents the judges from reviewing the acts of the government under the standard of reasonableness. We have up to 10 petitions against this new law, and as a representative of the Bar Association, this is a critical event to participate in.

One of our arguments is that the standard of reasonableness is part of the standard of honesty of the government versus the citizens. Preventing the standard of reasonableness is unconstitutional in a state where you don’t have a constitution. We are in very dynamic times.

Why do you need to be free from the standard of reasonableness unless you want to take unreasonable actions? One of our arguments is that the standard of reasonableness is part of the standard of honesty of the government with the citizens. The government is not the ruler; the people are the rulers, and the government only works for the people.

Preventing the court from applying the standard of reasonableness means that the government that controls the parliament will not be subject to judicial review. And therefore, this contradicts the basic principle of democracy, of separation of powers.

Our law is basic; it is not very specific. The Israeli tem is very shaky because we do not a constitution. When the state was founded, it was agreed that the Knesset, our parliament, would enact what we call ‘basic laws’ that will eventually become a constitution, which has not

We do not have two Houses of Parliament or a division between state and district representatives. Preventing the standard of reasonableness is unconstitutional in a state that does not have a constitution. This is quite difficult and unprecedented.

The main reason that we think that such a law was enacted is to allow the government to make unreasonable appointments. For example, Aryeh Deri, the former Minister of Internal Affairs, was convicted and went to jail 30 years ago. He was convicted again recently for tax issues and is ironically supposed to be the Minister of the Treasury of Israel.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is under a criminal trial for bribery and other corruption claims. Therefore, the attorney general is a very important figure and holds the power regarding how his trial will be conducted. So, another implication of the dismissal of the standard of reasonableness is that the government will be free to replace the Attorney General with someone of their own. This will enable a strike down of the Prime Minister’s trial.

The government, with its 64 members of parliament, have already taken all the steps necessary to change the judicial appointment committee. If that happens, they will have complete control over the judiciary and can appoint a judge to favour them.

Moreover, the retirement age for judges in Israel is 70, and the Chief Justice is turning 70 in October. She will be retiring alongside another Justice of the Supreme Court. There will not be a replacement for them as the government plans to alter the judicial appointment committee.

The government is so hell-bent on passing this law that they are proceeding with it knowing that this will endanger the relationship between Israel and the United States, risk the security of Israel and put the Israeli economy in a state of uncertainty.

In September, we will have a very dramatic and important legal hearing in the Supreme Court with a panel of 15 judges. All the judges of the Supreme Court will sit together for the first time to hear the petitions against the amendment.

We can see that our democracy is vulnerable; it is shaky. We are very worried; these are strange and quite chaotic times in Israel and our lives. But we must keep on struggling. I truly believe that eventually, the public outcry will stop the government.

NADAV WEISMAN

Partner, Meitar Israel, served for six years as a military prosecutor in the Judge Advocate General’s Corps of the Israel Defense Forces.

EXCLUSIVE CONVERSATIONS

The Netanyahu-led government felt the Supreme Court was too active, overruling decisions of the government by using its power. There is no way to underestimate the graveness of this situation.

The question now is how long the government will continue and how aggressive they are willing to get to pass this amendment.

The idea is basically to limit the Supreme Court’s power. Some people in Israel feel that the legal system took a liberal stand, overruling the decisions of the government and imposing a position of the executive branch over the government by using the Supreme Court’s power.

And it goes hand in hand with Bibi (PM Benja min Netanyahu) and his difficulties, because it also has a claim against the legal system thinking that they are pursuing him for no real ground.

So, the question is whether Bibi is a hostage in their hands or not. This is quite an open question that is unclear, but that’s part of the story. The judiciary crisis is not the only problem; the Jewish Orthodox’s drafting and contribution is now being questioned.

The liberal elite is unhappy with the amount of influence the Orthodox hold in the government, and yet, not contributing much to the nation’s economy or its defence.

The liberal elite feels this could have consequences for the future of the Israeli economy. But in terms of the economy, I think this problem can be handled as all we see is a little shift in the job market. The big issue that remains is the drafting of the orthodox.

The current situation in Israeli is akin to that of the U.S., where the liberal elites were up against the conservative supporters of Donald Trump.

Traditionally the Orthodox were considered moderate on security and policy issues, but right now, they have shifted to the right. At the same time, the protests are mainly being held by the elite of society and the army.

This break and divide in liberal democratic order is between the elites and the people. In many respects, the protest is led in the end by the elites of the society. In Israel, there are many other axes of the divide. If you look at the political map, there are 14 states divided into two groups.

There is also the historical divide between the Arab Jews and the European Jewish settlers, a perpetual tension that cannot be ignored.

Some call it a rift between Israel 1 and Israel 2. Is PM Benjamin Netanyahu going to pull Israel out of this deadlock situation? I suspect not. I do not see him creating the transformation this society needs.

The Netanyahu era would have to end somehow; I do not think he will continue for another term. Israel must look beyond Benjamin Netanyahu. But do not make the mistake of thinking that the chaos will die down once he is out; it would, in fact, only get worse.

The key players in this amendment are the Ultra-Orthodox ministers in his coalition, who seem to be leading the way. The question is whether Netanyahu is a hostage to them. He does not seem to be holding the steering wheel on this issue.

These issues could have major implications for Israel’s economy. Once the country’s commitment to liberal democratic values and the court’s supremacy starts to decline, the country’s grading by economic agencies could drop; this would affect the amount of money it can borrow.

Considering how most of the money invested in Israeli high-tech companies comes from the U.S., there could be a real problem brewing.To curb all these issues, the people must come out and stop their rights from being taken away.

The right-wing was surprised by the sheer force of the protests and the fact that all the elites, from the business world to the army, the academic and the legal, everyone was out there. The pro tests were powerful; there is no way to undermine their effect.

DR. DORON SHALOM AVITAL

Israeli politician who served as a member of the Knesset for Kadima between 2011 - 2013 and the commander of the General Staff Reconnaissance Unit , more commonly known as Sayaret Matkal. a special reconnaissance unit of Israel’s General Staff. He was a member of parliament and has a Phd in Logic and Philosophy from Columbia University . Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a member of Sayaret Matkal.

EXCLUSIVE CONVERSATIONS

THE GENERALS’ PROTEST

Senior security establishment figures and senior police officers join the fight for the independence of the Supreme Court

On August 8th, members of Israel’s security establishment, including former and current senior officials of the Mossad, the Shin Bet, the Israel Police and the IDF, submitted a request to join the petition submitted by the Movement for Quality Government in Israel as “friends of the court” against the cancellation of the reasonableness standard in Basic Law.

The application for joining the petition states, “The applicants believe that the amendment to the law seriously harms the principle of separation of powers in the State of Israel and weakens the judiciary and the ability of the Supreme Court to effectively review the decisions of the various parts of the executive branch, including the activities of the security forces.

The amendment to the law is already causing deterioration of the Israel Defence Forces and significant harm to the deterrence capacity of the State Israel in a way that constitutes a very serious security risk for the

The request to join the petition was submitted after an emergency meeting initiated by the Movement for Quality

Government in Israel, and the senior security figures decided to join the legal campaign to preserve the independent status of the Supreme Court.

Among the prominent names who signed the application to join were Tamir Pardo, former head of the Mossad, former police commissioners, Roni Elsheikh, Moshe Karadi, Shlomo Aharonishki, Yohanan Danino, Maj Gen. (Res) Dan Harel, Deputy Chief of Staff, and former Director General of the Ministry of Defence,Maj Gen. (Res) Udi Adam, Carmi Gillon, former head of the Shin Bet and Uzi Arad, and many dozens of other current and former senior officials in the intelligence and security community in the State of Israel.

Advocate Dr Eliad Shraga, Chairman of the Movement for Quality Government in Israel, welcomed the senior members of the security establishment joining the petition and the legal campaign to protect the independence of the Supreme Court. “Presenting a united front of civil society and the security establishment is essential in the fight to preserve the democratic character of the State of Israel,” he said.

Tamir Pardo, former chief of Mossad, called it a historic moment for the democratic future of the State of Israel. “We, senior members of the security establishment who gave our all for the defence of the state, are now embarking on the most important battle of our lives - the legal campaign to protect the independence of the Supreme Court. This is a mission in which we must succeed,” he announced, reflecting the views of all other signatories.

PROF. UZI ARAD

National Security Advisor to Israel’s Prime Minister and Head of the NSC from 2009 to 2011. Between 1997-1999, he was the prime minister’s Foreign Policy Advisor, and before that he served with the Mossad for more than two decades as Director Research Intelligence.

A LEGAL PERSPECTIVE

SYNERGIA

FOUNDATION

The Knesset, Israel’s parliament, approved the first part of the judicial overhaul, which limits the Supreme Court’s use of the “reasonableness” test. This test allowed the Supreme Court to strike down government decisions that it deemed to be unreasonable.

A petition has been filed before the Supreme Court by the Israel Bar Association against the amendment passed by the Knesset. The petition affirmed that the amendment is part of a plan to fundamentally change the system of government in Israel. It is feared that its implementation will cause irreversible damage to the rule of law, the separation of powers, and the independence of the judiciary. The amendment would exempt ministers from their obligation to uphold the law, grant the executive branch immunity from judicial review on a broad range of subjects, and weaken the gatekeepers in charge of maintaining the rule of law.

THE REASONABLE STANDARD

As per Israel’s judicial precedence, in the Hanegbi Case, the esteemed Justice E. Hayut emphasized that the principles governing the reasonableness standard, which have been meticulously developed in the jurisprudence of this court over several decades, have played a pivotal and crucial role in scrutinizing administrative actions. The reasonableness standard holds a distinguished position in upholding the integrity and impartiality of public administration. Moreover, it plays

The process of judicially reviewing administrative actions serves a dual purpose: safeguarding human rights and fundamental values from the potential misuse of power while also fostering a governance ethos characterized by integrity, fairness, and excellence.

an instrumental role in ensuring the preservation and defence of human rights, preventing undue harm that could arise from administrative actions exceeding the just and necessary limits.

The reasonableness standard serves as a cornerstone within the framework of judicial review, ensuring that the executive branch operates within the confines of its designated authority. As aptly articulated by Justice Baron in the Fourth Deri Case, the discretionary powers wielded by administrative bodies are subject to meticulous judicial oversight, delineated by well-defined standards of evaluation – the reasonableness standard being among them. The process of judicially reviewing administrative actions serves a dual purpose: safeguarding human rights and fundamental values from the potential misuse of power while also fostering a governance ethos characterized by integrity, fairness, and excellence.

The court assumes the role of a vigilant guardian entrusted with the responsibility of maintaining the parameters of administrative authority and verifying

the legality of its exercise. This principle aligns with the doctrine of checks and balances, a cornerstone of the separation of powers, and is a vital underpinning of democratic governance. Therefore, it is a cornerstone of preserving democracy.

WEDNESBURY PRINCIPLES

The origin of the reasonableness test can be traced back to the common law principles developed in English administrative law. One of the seminal cases that contributed to the establishment of this test is the Associated Provincial Picture Houses Ltd v. Wednesbury Corporation, often referred to as the “Wednesbury case.” This case, decided by the English Court of Appeal in 1948, introduced the notion that administrative decisions could be challenged and invalidated if they were found to be so unreasonable that no reasonable authority would have made them.

The Wednesbury principles, derived from the Wednesbury case, laid down a standard for reviewing administrative decisions. According to these principles, a decision can be considered unreasonable if it falls into one of the following categories:

• If the decision-maker took into account irrelevant factors or ignored relevant factors.

• If the decision is so unreasonable that no reasonable person could have arrived at it.

• If the decision is a manifest abuse of power.

U.S. Supreme Court Justice Benjamin Cardozo once said that “the frailty of human nature is to grab power.” He argued that the executive branch, like an unruly horse, is prone to abuse its power. To rein in the executive, Cardozo said that judges developed a leash called the “Reasonableness Test”. It finds its origin in the English Common Law.

In other words, judges act as a check on the power of the executive branch. They do this by reviewing the actions of the executive branch and striking down those actions that they deem to be unconstitutional or illegal. It is important to remember that the executive branch

is not above the law. It is subject to the same checks and balances as the other branches of government. Judges play a vital role in ensuring that the executive branch does not abuse its power. Therefore, the petition was filed by Israel Bar Association to determine the constitutional validity of the amendment.

APPLICATION OF THE REASONABLENESS TEST IN INDIA

The reasonableness test, influenced by the Wednesbury principles, has been widely adopted and applied in Indian administrative and constitutional law. In India, Article 14 of the Constitution guarantees the right to equality, which includes the principle that administrative actions must be reasonable and non-arbitrary.

Indian courts have utilized the reasonableness test to review governmental and administrative decisions. They examine whether the decision-making process was rational, whether relevant factors were considered, and whether the decision is one that a reasonable person could arrive at. The Indian judiciary has played a significant role in ensuring that administrative actions align with the principles of reasonableness, fairness, and justice.

IMPORTANCE IN PRESERVING DEMOCRACY:

The reasonableness test holds immense importance in preserving democracy and upholding the rule of law. In a democratic society, governmental authorities must exercise their powers in a manner that is fair, just, and reasonable. The test acts as a check against arbitrary exercises of power, ensuring that citizens’ rights are protected and that public authorities act in the best interests of the people.

By requiring administrative decisions to meet a standard of reasonableness, the test helps prevent abuse of power, protect individual liberties, and maintain the balance between the government and the governed. It reinforces the principle that no authority, no matter how powerful, is above the law and that all exercises of governmental authority must be subject to scrutiny to ensure they are reasonable and in accordance with the law.

Source : Cartoonstock

A SHARED VISION FOR THE FUTURE

Given their historical ties and India’s growing influence on the world stage, there is immense potential for India-Ukraine partnership to flower despite the war.

Lt Gen G A V Reddy AVSM, SC, VSM (Retd) is the former Deputy Chief of Integrated Defense Staff, DG-DIA and Strategic Advisor at Synergia Foundation.

India and Ukraine enjoy warm and friendly relations, which can be enduring. Immediately after the breakup of the Soviet Union, India recognised the Republic of Ukraine in December 1991, one of the first to do so. The Embassy of India in Kyiv was established in May 1992, and Ukraine opened its Mission in New Delhi in February 1993.

India and Ukraine have an extensive bilateral relationship that spans various areas of cooperation. Ukraine has been a source of military technology and equipment for India since its independence. Ukraine manufactures the R-27 air-to-air missiles used by IAF’s SU-30MKI fleet. India is Ukraine’s fifth largest overall export destination in the Asia-Pacific, and the major sector being pharmaceuticals. There were about 25,000 Indian students studying in Ukraine (before the war broke out), mainly in the field of medicine. Indian business professionals work in Ukraine predominantly in the fields of pharmaceuticals, IT, engineering and education.

A DISTINCTIVE APPROACH

In the past, India’s strategic partnership with Moscow never came in the way of the former’s dealings with Kyiv. In fact, it complemented Russian defence deals with India as much of the equipment of Russian

Strong channels of communication existed between New Delhi and Kyiv, which positioned India ideally to mediate between Russia and Ukraine and potentially bring an end to the Ukraine conflict.

origin was subsequently maintained in Ukrainian factories. This included the upgrading of the IAF’s 105 aircraft-strong fleet of Russian-suppled An32 transport aircraft for which a $400 million contract was reportedly signed. Ukraine is the supplier of naval gas turbines in a Rs 1000 crore deal for the four Admiral Grigorovich Project stealth frigates, two of which are to be built in Russia and two in Goa Shipyard Ltd. As per media reports, in 2021, talks were at an advanced stage with Ukraine to provide UAVs and collaboration with DRDO for the joint development of a variety of weapon systems, including swarm drones and other force multipliers.

Therefore, strong channels of communication existed between New Delhi and Kyiv, which positioned India ideally to mediate between Russia and Ukraine and potentially bring an end to the Ukraine conflict. India has been a leading voice in seeking an early cessation of hostilities and a diplomatic solution to the conflict. India’s approach has been distinctive among major democracies and strategic partners as it has been done more discreetly rather than to seek the glare of global publicity. Since both sides in the conflict are its

CRUCIAL SECTORS FOR UKRAINE’S RECOVERY & RECONSTRUCTION EFFORTS

long-term partners, India must tread with care and tact since it cannot underestimate the degree of difficulty in mediating a ceasefire, let alone seek a solution to this intractable problem. While balancing its relations with Russia and Ukraine, it is pragmatic for India to secure its critical energy and defence needs.

India’s approach has been appreciated by Ukraine, which has expressed the desire for closer ties with India. This has been amply manifested in the flurry of visits that have been taking place recently. Ms Emine Dzhaparova, Ukraine’s first deputy foreign minister, during her four-day visit in April, held wide-ranging talks with the Indian foreign ministry and other government functionaries focussing on issues of mutual interest.

While attending the Japan Summit of G7 in May, Prime Minister Modi met President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Thus, there is scope for a much higher level of bilateral cooperation between India and Ukraine, despite the overhang of India’s Russian partnership. This is due to the distinctive approach taken by New Delhi under very difficult circumstances while all the time deflecting pressure from the West and Russia. India “can play a bigger and greater role” and Ukraine would “welcome any effort that is directed at resolving the war,” Emine Dzhaparova said after her visit.

A SHIFTING BALANCE OF POWER

India has to be mindful of the realignment in global power calculus taking place with every new twist and turn in this seemingly unending conflict.

The regional impact within Europe has been most significant. The Russian aggression has pushed many countries in Eastern Europe closer to NATO and the EU, encouraging them to seek stronger alliances. Eastern European members of NATO (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria) are now open to the placement of military forces and weapons from other NATO members, enhancing Russia’s security threats.

The inclusion of Finland and Sweden as frontline states on Russian frontiers makes the regional security situation even more complex. Economic consequences are even more pronounced, as the conflict has disrupted regional economies, with Ukraine experiencing a deep recession and neighbouring countries facing economic challenges due to the disruption of trade and energy flows. As per UNHCR, there are nearly 5.1 million internally displaced people in Ukraine (as of May

2023), more than 6.2 million refugees from Ukraine have been recorded globally (as of July 2023), and nearly 18 million are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance. Allegations of war crimes have been made by both sides, with the ICC issuing a warrant against President Putin for alleged human rights violations.

The global impact is already being felt across continents in many spheres. As regards geopolitical implications, the conflict has aggravated the rivalry between major world powers, especially between the West (led by the U.S.) and Russia, with China being dragged into it with accusations of forming a Russia-China axis. Unsurprisingly, Russia’s exclusion from the global market system, especially its vast energy resources, has undermined the global economy that was just recovering from the devastations of the pandemic. Universally, low growth and high inflation is being experienced by the rich and the powerful countries.

Russia, despite its stoic front, has been the worst sufferer along with Ukraine. The Russian economy is weakened for sure, despite Moscow’s denials cutting down on its revenue as it is forced to sell its valuable energy resources at discounted prices. The conflict has made Europe more dependent on the U.S. for security, as is evident from the shift in NATO’s security doctrines. The impact has been felt across the Pacific, and American allies like Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia are renewing their already close security partnerships with Washington. Some U.S. analysts see the current military aid to Ukraine as a cheaper option to weaken Russia than fighting it directly at a future date.

It is but natural that the shadow of the Indo-Russian relationship will fall on any growing relationship between New Delhi and Kyiv. India’s relationship with Russia is shaped by history, energy, arms, and influence and is best characterised as an example of its multi-alignment strategy. As regards Ukraine’s sovereignty and integrity, India’s support has been unambiguous on this account.

However, India has tactfully avoided openly condemning the Russian ‘special military operation’, nor has it come in its favour even if there is a widespread public opinion within India that strongly feels that Russia has been compelled to go to war by the creeping NATO expansion into the Russian strategic space. India is also mindful of the decades of Moscow’s long-standing support for India’s position on Kashmir and its defence forces. It is expected that Russia also acknowledges and is mindful of India’s core interests that hinge on its seven decades-old strategic autonomy.

BILATERAL TRADE 2016-2022 (MILLION $)

UKRAINE’S EXPECTATIONS

Ukraine has listed its priority requirements (amounting to nearly $ 440 billion) to rebuild its devastated nation. It is reaching out to the global community to share in this reconstruction and sees India as a major player. While it may appear a bit premature for the reconstruction to begin, while the war rages on and missiles continue to strike Ukrainian cities, Kyiv is keen to start planning the reconstruction and start getting commitments.

Stabilising the Economy: Restarting major industries that can provide employment and generate revenue is crucial for stabilising the Ukrainian economy. This includes restoring infrastructure, education and health systems and ensuring fiscal and financial stability. The international community, including organisations like the Atlantic Council, IMF, World Bank, and USAID continues to work towards supporting Ukraine in stabilisation and rebuilding efforts. The United States, European Union, and other allies are already contributing in areas such as energy, electricity equipment, and critical infrastructure repairs.

Governance and Institutional Strengthening: Enhancing governance and strengthening institutions are important for promoting long-term growth and stability in Ukraine. This includes promoting reforms that support Ukraine’s recovery and its path toward EU accession.

A Comprehensive Approach: Rebuilding Ukraine requires a comprehensive approach that involves the mobilisation of joint resources from the Ukrainian government and international partners. Collaboration and coordination among various stakeholders are essential for effective reconstruction efforts. Major industries that are crucial for Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction are infrastructure, pharmaceutical, prosthetics, housing, transportation, logistics, technology, energy, labour, agriculture, demining, oil and gas.

SCOPE FOR INDIA-UKRAINE COLLABORATION

Ukraine has identified several areas where both the public sector and the private sector of India can participate for the mutual benefit of both sides.

The Indian Government can step in at short notice once the reconstruction of critical infrastructure begins. Investing in Ukraine can help India establish a strategic partnership with the country. This can help India expand its influence in the region and strengthen its geopolitical position. While maintaining strategic neutrality in the conflict, India has sent humanitarian aid to Kyiv. Indian and Ukrainian top leaderships have been regularly in touch on the phone, and Ukraine would like India to exert its diplomatic influence towards finding a pragmatic solution to the conflict. India will continue to provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine, especially to the internally displaced population and provide support in the form of medical supplies, food, and shelter.

Investments are being sought from Indian private investors also in Ukraine’s infrastructure, energy, transportation, logistics, and technology sectors. There are opportunities for joint ventures and partnerships with Ukrainian companies. Indian companies can play a crucial role in rebuilding Ukraine’s economy. The Ukrainian government has identified certain sectors as the ones to which initial investments will be directed. Indian businessmen can also provide expertise and knowledge transfer to Ukrainian companies.

The opportunity for Indian private investment lies in infrastructure, as the fighting has left roads, bridges, civic amenities and public transportation systems in shambles. In fact, infrastructure is in the top five industries shortlisted for immediate reconstruction by the Ukrainian government.

With Ukraine there are ample opportunities to expand renewables in Ukraine’s energy sector. Cut off from its traditional supply of gas from Russian gas fields, Ukraine has to seek alternate energy sources on priority. In this, India’s acknowledged expertise in the field of renewables can prove useful.

Ukraine is cognisant of India’s growing technological capacity and would like to partner with it, keeping in mind Ukraine’s own strength in high-tech manufacturing like aviation and gas turbine technologies. There is a ramping up of hiring in tech companies in Ukraine on the expectation that once the war ends, the country’s technology industry will emerge stronger. Venture capital firms are also raising millions of dollars to back Ukrainian tech entrepreneurs.

Ukraine has historically been the breadbasket of the USSR, and it was its vast agricultural resources that attracted the Nazis. An Indian-Ukraine partnership in agriculture could lead to a solution for the world’s food scarcity. Indian investments in the fertiliser industry, agricultural transportation infrastructure and storage facilities could be mutually beneficial. Ukraine’s transportation and logistics infrastructure has huge potential to accelerate reconstruction and deepen the country’s alignment with Europe. This includes investing in ports, railways, and highways.

INCENTIVES GALORE

The EU has established a Facility for Recovery and Reform to support Ukraine’s efforts to sustain macro-financial stability, promote recovery, and rebuild the country. The Facility provides up to €50 billion in the form of grants and loans.

The Kyiv government has established the Ukraine Investment Fund, designed to provide investors with a range of investment opportunities across various sectors of the economy. The Ukrainian government is working with private investors to create a fund that will provide concessionary capital to support reconstruction efforts. The fund will invest across various sectors of the economy, including infrastructure, energy, manufacturing, agriculture, and information technology.

Tax incentives include tax exemptions for certain types of investments and reduced tax rates for companies that invest in certain regions of the country. Free economic zones are established to attract foreign investments, offer tax incentives, simplified customs procedures and other benefits to companies that invest in Ukraine.

Foreign investment in Ukraine’s rebuilding efforts carries some risks, though, and any reconstruction of this scale will inevitably encounter geopolitical risks associated with investing in Ukraine’s rebuilding efforts. Ukraine’s investment climate has been deemed risky for sufficient foreign and domestic investment. Uncertainty around the structure and durability of a peace settlement has made investors leery about Ukraine.

Risk mitigation tools offered by traditional multilateral development banks and development finance institutions (DFIs) are limited, while private insurance is expensive. Ukraine’s economy has been affected severely, with its GDP shrinking by 30 per cent, and World Bank estimates that Ukraine’s GDP may contract further.

SILVER LINING FOR INDIAN BUSINESSES

There is a “tremendous opportunity” for private investors in Ukraine’s post-war future, according to Stefan Weiler, JPMorgan’s head of debt. The World Bank estimated in March that the cost of rebuilding the country one year from the start of the war amounted to $411 billion. This presents a significant investment opportunity for Indian businessmen.

War-Risk Insurance Framework: UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak unveiled a “war-risk insurance” framework backed by the Group of Seven countries, which will help limit potential losses faced by private investors in Ukraine. This framework will help insurers to underwrite investments in Ukraine, removing one of the biggest barriers and giving investors the confidence, they need to act.

Bilateral Agreements: India and Ukraine have signed various bilateral agreements, including the Treaty on Friendship and Cooperation and the Agreement on Cooperation in the Tourism Sphere. These agreements provide a framework for cultural and humanitarian cooperation, as well as trade and economic collaboration.

Education and Academic Exchange: Cooperation in the field of education has been a significant aspect of bilateral relations between India and Ukraine. Indian students have been studying in Ukrainian universities since 1957, and this exchange of knowledge and expertise strengthens the cultural ties between the two nations.

TEC Assistance/Other Training Programmes: India offers training programmes to Ukraine under ITEC (Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation) programme for capacity building in different centres of excellence in India. ICCR (Indian Council for Cultural Relations) offers scholarships in higher-level courses covering a wide range of subjects in eminent Indian Institutions. There is also a Kendriya Hindi Sansthan Scholarship programme, which offers scholarships to foreign students to pursue higher-level Hindi language courses.

Diplomatic Ties: India has maintained diplomatic and defence ties with Ukraine, even when it was a republic part of the Soviet Union.

These ties have contributed to the overall stronger bilateral relationship between the two countries, despite external pressures on both nations, including during the ongoing conflict.

Assessment

India has repeatedly emphasised the immediate cessation of hostilities and the need to resolve ongoing conflict through dialogue and diplomacy.

India and Ukraine’s stronger bond fosters trust, facilitates business interactions and makes investments more appealing between the two countries.

As global dynamics evolve, India and Ukraine have huge opportunities to deepen their partnership in various domains, mutually benefitting the people and economies. Both nations need to optimise the opportunities now more than ever before.

EXCLUSIVE CONVERSATIONS

The recent events have highlighted the vital role of India on the international front, specifically in the IndoPacific region. The increased interaction between Ukrainian and Indian government officials is a promising development. However, we need to focus on improving our inter-parliamentary relations. This is where we are counting on your assistance.

A potential avenue for cooperation lies in the defence sector, leveraging Ukraine’s unique and invaluable practical military experiences. We anticipate ening our relationships in this The reconstruction of postwar Ukraine represents a massive opportunity. It’s perhaps the most significant project since World War II,

EXCLUSIVE CONVERSATIONS

The relationship between India and Ukraine dates beyond Soviet times to the Russian Empire. Since the late 19th and early 20th centuries, Indian studies have gained popularity in Ukraine, with significant translations of sacred texts. In the Soviet Union era, industrial and machinery collaborations existed, with Ukrainian engineers contributing to Indian projects and vice versa. Notably, in 1975, an Indian satellite was constructed in the Ukrainian city of Yuzhnoye. Additionally, the creation of India’s first Institute of Technology (IIT) in Mumbai had significant Ukrainian involvement in its initial stages.

In independent Ukraine, cooperation between the two nations thrived in various spheres, including science, technology, space, nuclear cooperation, pharmaceuticals, machinery, energy and agriculture. However, despite this rich history, the political dialogue between the two nations remains sub-par, with rare high-level official visits and limited awareness about Ukraine in India.

Unfortunately, despite Ukraine’s current conflicts, India has not prioritised Ukraine despite latter’s intense focus on South Asia. This was evidenced when Amitabh Kant, the head of the Indian delegation to G20, stated that the war between Russia and Ukraine was not a global priority. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi has acknowledged the conflict, concrete plans for conflict

transforming a war-torn nation into a prominent part of the European economy.We’re also focused on the ambitious goal of Ukraine becoming a member of the European Union, which will bring about significant economic and societal changes. We acknowledge the hurdles that must be overcome to meet the conditions for membership, but the negotiation process itself is a crucial step.

In essence, these three pillars—inter-parliamentary relations, defence cooperation, and post-war reconstruction and integration—are the domains where we foresee a critical need for your expertise and input. Understanding the needs and interests of Indian officials and the general society can help improve our communication, ultimately strengthening the ties between our nations in these spheres.

resolution are lacking. An initiative by the French President and the Indian Prime Minister to create a unique plan for the situation is welcome, yet details and implementation strategies remain unclear. The idea of a G-20 Troika, including Indonesia, India, and Brazil, proposed by prominent Indian diplomat Ajay Bisaya, seems promising but has not been further developed. While the historical ties between India and Ukraine are strong, there’s an immediate need for more proactive and direct political and diplomatic engagement to address the ongoing conflict.

We are looking forward to the G-20 Summit in Delhi this September, despite currently being no invitation for Ukraine’s President. Recent diplomatic advancements, including a successful visit by Ukraine’s Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs to India in April 2023 and political consultations with an Indian delegation led by His Excellency, Sanjay Verma, have occurred. During these discussions, the need for better understanding and dialogue was highlighted, emphasizing the importance

VADYM HALAICHUK Member of Parliament, Ukraine.

DR. OLENA BORDILOVSKA

Associate Professor, Institute of International Relations Kyiv Taras Shevchenko National University, Ukraine.

EXCLUSIVE CONVERSATIONS

Despite many Europeans perceiving the war in Ukraine as stable or on hold, the harsh reality is that active combat and counter-offensive actions continue, with both soldiers and civilians falling victim to Russian aggression daily.

This ongoing conflict has caused over 6 million Ukrainians to flee to Europe, leading to more than 11 million internally and externally displaced people.

Restoring and rebuilding the nation will require substantial labour and careful planning, as many displaced citizens will need to be enticed back home with the promise of jobs, education and stability.

There is a robust discussion in Ukraine about how best to facilitate this process. Assistance from countries like India, one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, could prove invaluable.

Despite ongoing struggles, we remain resolute in our conviction to fight for victory and ultimately become a member of the European Union, thus opening up new markets and investor attractions.

One potential source of funding for Ukraine’s reconstruction could come from the confiscated frozen assets of Russia, estimated to be between $300 to $400 billion. Given India’s interests in various industries and existing businesses in Ukraine, there could be opportunities for further cooperation.

Moreover, India’s support during these challenging times, especially from the Indian diaspora and Indian students in Ukraine, has been significant and highly appreciated.

Before the war, approximately 35,000 Indian students, mainly studying medicine, were based in Ukraine. Currently, we are working on solutions for these students to continue their education remotely, with a plan to facilitate the practical experience required to complete their diplomas.

Discussions are also ongoing regarding military cooperation, particularly focusing on replacing Russian weaponry that can no longer be supplied.

Ukraine has a thriving military production sector and could potentially be a new source for India. Regular exchange of information and discussions are vital to facilitate these multifaceted interactions, including

those in culture, economics and diaspora communities. Monthly roundtable discussions focusing on specific topics could benefit both nations. Finally, potential partnerships in infrastructure, transport and maritime industries may also be beneficial.

With India’s burgeoning military ship construction and Ukraine’s wealth of knowledge and expertise, these collaborations could be mutually advantageous.

The main goal is to foster an ongoing exchange of information and ideas, ensuring both nations are on the same page and working towards a common objective.

On the issue of how reconstruction in Ukraine can commence when the war continues to rage and both sides are adamant about their respective stands, Ukraine cannot afford to delay reconstruction. In fact, reconstruction has already started.

As soon as an effective air defence system is in place, covering Kyiv and the area around it up to 50 km, we can ensure there will be insurance for the businesses and investments.

We are working on state insurance: Ukrainian insurance, which will cover all grain exports. We are also discussing international insurance for businesses investing in Ukraine.

Investments that come in first get the most. So, if you come after the war, the cost will increase; therefore, you may not get your big profit. We have 20 per cent occupied territories, and we are fighting for this 20 per cent.

But the rest 80 per cent is normal and functional, including the economy. People are harvesting, opening factories, running military production, reconstructing bridges, roads, railways, etc.

If Ukraine delays for more than two years, its externally displaced people will likely not come back. Ukraine may lose at least 20 per cent of its labour force.

The reconstruction has to be done concurrently, as we need an up-and-run ning economy to keep our army with food and weap ons and to feed the whole country.

YULIYA LEONIDIVNA KLYMENKO Member of Parliament, Ukraine.

EXCLUSIVE CONVERSATIONS

Drawing from the discussions with the speakers, two major Issues stand out - the critical need for societal level and parliamentarians’ level interactions.

Notably, there has been considerable interaction including telephone conversations between the Indian prime minister and the Ukrainian President.

Regarding the engagement at the parliamentary level, various factors preclude the same at this stage. Nonetheless, think tanks like Synergia aim to bridge the gap. They serve as a platform to discuss and understand your views, concerns, and proposals.

We believe these can be relayed to the government and other appropriate authorities, ensuring Indian key decision makers are aware of Ukraine’s concerns, regardless of the direct parliamentarian interactions not happening.

Moreover, at this point, India may be the only nation capable of facilitating a Ukrainian dialogue. This can be attributed to India’s warm relations with the Western nations and Russia.

The Indian Prime Minister, in his discussions with his Russian counterpart, has always been stressing the need to end conflict and resume dialogue.

Looking at potential focus areas from an Indian perspective (not as

a government spokesperson, but as a member of the Synergia think tank), the first should be humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

Since February last year, India has already begun this process, providing provisions like medicines and essentials. Second, India could assist Ukraine in rebuilding and reconstruction efforts.

The third focus should be on societal-level interactions, enhancing people-to-people contact, which is crucial for further strengthening our historical bonds.

In terms of cooperation avenues, we can initially look at non-military options, primarily economic or trade-related ones.

Eventually, defence cooperation can be considered. Indian requirements from Ukraine would be technology sharing or joint ventures, with ‘Make in India’ as a basic necessary component. Ukraine’s coverage in the Indian media may be less than desired.

Think tanks can facilitate better interaction in tech diplomacy, sharing defence production experiences, and exchanging warfighting tactics.

Also, let us not forget about the human aspect - Indian students studying in Ukraine, for whom a swift resolution to this conflict would mean a secure future. Lastly, the prospect of a new Master Plan for Ukraine’s reconstruction presents opportunities for Indian businesses.

LT GEN G A V REDDY

AVSM, SC, VSM (Retd) is the former Deputy Chief of Integrated Defense Staff , DG-DIA and Strategic Advisor at Synergia Foundation.

EXCLUSIVE CONVERSATIONS

A rich pool of educated young professionals in Ukraine proficient in English and other languages presents a potential asset for the country’s future. I have strong faith in multilateral forums for their ability to foster healthy programs for governments.

Regarding India-Ukraine relations, there is a need to strengthen the inter-parliamentary dialogue between the two nations and with Indian entities - companies, NGOs, or policy-making institutions - to participate in

Ukraine’s reconstruction and development initiatives. We also must revisit the past collaborations in sectors like Green Hydrogen and the digital field as potential collaboration areas. We must navigate third-party interests in Ukraine-India cooperation and leverage the Indian diaspo ra worldwide. Indian investors must explore the opportunities that will arise in Ukraine soon.

MRIDULA GHOSH

an expert in nuclear international relations and foreign policy based in Ukraine.

INDIA – NEPAL: A FRAGILE FRIENDSHIP

Under these stressful and disruptive times, India and Nepal can no longer take their historical relations and Hindu links for granted.

FOUNDATION

RESEARCH TEAM

Historically, India and Nepal have enjoyed good bilateral relations structured around a comprehensive, multi-dimensional, age-old narrative based on shared history and culture. As early as 17 June 1947, both countries established diplomatic relations with an unwavering commitment to the principle of coexistence.

Based on the Indian policy of Neighbourhood First, it is imperative to recalibrate India-Nepal relations, further exploring untrodden paths of opportunities.

DECIPHERING NEPAL

Nepal, a buffer state between two major powersIndia and China - has strategic implications for the region. Nepal’s proximity to the most sensitive Siliguri Corridor is a crucial security concern for India, apart from the increasing influence of China, Pakistan, and Turkey in Nepal’s internal affairs. The long pending border disputes between India and Nepal constantly irritate bilateral relations.

Nepal shares a border with five Indian states of Sikkim, West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. The rivers rising in Nepal feed perennial rivers of India, which impact, apart from ecology and agriculture, the hydropower potential of India. Many prominent Hindu and Buddhist pilgrim sites are in Nepal. Sometimes Indians make an error of judgement by

The trust deficit between the political hierarchy of both nations has been a constant for long. It is a common and recurring feature of domestic Nepalese politics to blame India for anything, and everything, that goes wrong in the country-economically or politically. This attitude makes it extremely risky for any ruling dispensation in Nepal to indulge in a meaningful political dialogue with India, lest it be accused of selling the interests of Nepal.

treating Nepal as one of ‘their states or as a younger brother.” Nothing could be further from reality because Nepal is a distinct nation that, to date, has never been colonised, a fact of which all Nepalese are justifiably proud.

The British Raj was compelled to conduct the costly Anglo-Nepalese war of 1814-16, culminating in the Treaty of Sugauli of 1816. Apart from acquiring the Nepalese territories of Kumaon and Garhwal (right down to the plains of Dehradun) and parts of Sikkim, which facilitated direct trade between British India and Tibet, Nepal continued to enjoy total sovereignty. The treaty imposed the nominal presence of a British Resident in the Royal court in Kathmandu. It allowed recruitment into the British Indian Army of the gritty Gurkha hill

warriors. This tradition continues today although the Agni path scheme may possibly put an end to it.

A GROWING DIVIDE?

The foremost concern is the long pending border disputes involving both sides’ encroachments, illegal land usage, and unresolved water-sharing agreements despite several treaties and agreements. The claiming of Kala Pani territory, an integral part of the Pithoragarh district of Uttarakhand since 1997, is a major cause celebre that the anti-India lobby in Nepal has frequently exploited.

The territorial disputes were further exacerbated in May 2015, consequent to an agreement by China and India to develop transit and trade via the disputed region. It must be recollected that the pilgrimage route to the sacred Kailash Mansarovar region in Tibet runs through the Lipulekh pass, which remains undeveloped on the Indian side. In contrast, on the Tibetan side, a modern highway comes close to the pass. Nepal responded with a flurry of diplomatic notes addressed to New Delhi and Beijing, protesting against the alleged “violation of its territorial integrity.”

The issue resurfaced in November 2019 when an official Indian political map included the disputed territories within India’s sovereign boundaries. In a move more in tune with domestic sentiments than diplomatic nicety, the then Prime Minister, Mr Oli, had amended the Nepali constitution to include these disputed areas.

The Chinese Factor remains a major bone of contention, even if India refrains from expressing its sen-

timents overtly in diplomatic forums. India’s concerns are the rapid infrastructure development by China in Nepal, including the BRI projects, north-south road/ rail connectivity, airfields/helipads near the border, the proposed industrial park at Dhamak, and the hydroelectric projects. Invariably these numerous projects have led to the permanent presence of Chinese nationals close to the Indian border, especially in the Terai region, which makes Indian security institutions justifiably nervous.

While the India-Nepal strategic relationship dates back to the landmark 1950 India-Nepal Treaty of Peace and Friendship that allowed the free movement of people and goods between the two nations and close collaboration on defence and foreign policy matters, Nepal established diplomatic relations with China only in August 1955. Since then, it has gradually drifted away from India. China considers Nepal a key partner in development, including BRI, which invested huge funds and offered lump sum aid to Nepal. In addition, of late USA is also pursuing comprehensive outreach in Nepal by investing in Millennium Challenge Cooperation [MCC].

Even more worrying from the Indian perspective is the growing military undertones of the China-Nepal relationship. PLA has been for years focussed on capacity building of Nepal Armed Forces - supply of Armoured Personnel Carriers, arms, ammunition, equipment, and training Nepal Army personnel in Chinese military training establishments. Chinese are also training Nepali youth in Mandarin, in the garb of employing them as tourist guides for visiting Chinese tourists. However, such close interaction runs the risk of indoctrination

Source : Artkrafter

Exports Imports IN NUMBERS (May figures in $ billion)

and intelligence-gathering training of Nepalese citizens during their extended residency in China, with security implications for India as Nepalese citizens enjoy unrestricted access to India and its military institutions.

As the protests over the Agni path recruitment scheme grew in Nepal, as it impacted the recruitment of Gorkhas into the Indian Army’s Gurkha regiments, there were unsubstantiated reports in the Indian media that PLA was trying to recruit Nepalese Gorkhas for fighting in high altitude terrain.

Increasing Islamic Radicalization in the Terai region adjoining the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, is a real danger for India. Indian security agencies have been monitoring the mushrooming of more than 25 Islamic organisations around the India-Nepal border in recent years, posing a security threat to the vulnerable Siliguri corridor.

Numerous Madrasas along border areas are funded by Pakistan, Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia; some are even involved in conversions to Islam. Nepalese territory is also being misused by elements inimical to India, exploiting the existing concept of Frontier without Restrictions.

NEPALESE COMPULSIONS

The domestic political landscape of Nepal has a direct bearing on shaping the triangular relationship between India-Nepal-China.

The trust deficit between the political hierarchy of both nations has been a constant for long. It is a common and recurring feature of domestic Nepalese politics to blame India for anything, and everything, that goes wrong in the country-economically or politically. This attitude makes it extremely risky for any ruling dis-

pensation in Nepal to indulge in a meaningful political dialogue with India, lest it be accused of selling the interests of Nepal.

India as an interloper in Nepalese internal affairs, and the cause of its political instability is mouthed by all parties across the political divide. Even the Nepalese Congress, historically closely aligned to India, can no longer run the risk of making any overtly friendly gestures to New Delhi.

However, on a positive note, the newly appointed Prime Minister, Mr Pushpa Kamal Dahal or ‘Prachanda’ (known to be close to Beijing), made it a point to visit New Delhi on his first overseas visit after assuming the office. Hopefully, this underlines the importance attached to the bilateral relations between India and Nepal by the dispensation in power in Kathmandu.

Modern politics are steered by economics, making India’s task of competing with China for influence over its smaller neighbours much more difficult. While economically, India is a key development partner, the largest trading partner, and a huge source of foreign direct investment in Nepal, this has not prevented Nepal from moving towards the Chinese BRI, even if such a move runs the risk of a debt trap with its serious economic consequences, as visible in Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

Though Nepal’s GDP forecast has been pegged at 4.1 per cent in the financial year 2023, it has seen a downward revision since October 2022. Nepal’s economy will likely face further turbulence due to a high inflation rate of 7.8 per cent with higher taxation rates. Kathmandu has little option but to seek financial support from China if New Delhi is not forthcoming.

The social direction of Nepal has the distinct advantage of a population of 30.8 million, with 64 per

cent youth, though unemployment is high at about 12 per cent. About eight million Nepalese citizens live and work in India, including about 60,000 soldiers in the Indian Armed Forces, and roughly 80,000 ex-soldiers of Nepal receive Indian pensions. Poor health care, lack of basic civic amenities for communities in remote areas and COVID-19 impact still being felt in rural regions are challenges the nation faces. The education standard in rural areas is lacking due to poor school infrastructure, inadequate/lack of well-trained teaching staff.

INDIA’S OPTIONS

India would do well to enhance the existing focus on multi-faceted engagements manifold with the aim - ‘Advantage Nepal and India.’

First and foremost is a resolution to the seemingly intractable border disputes. India may have to address them denovo, shedding historical baggage as it did on several issues like the Ganga delta islands with Bangladesh.

This has to be pursued through meaningful dialogues conducted away from the media spotlight to achieve convergence. India should avoid actions that are perceived in Nepal as ‘meddling in its internal affairs.” Also, cut the rhetoric, and be a generous and sensitive partner by avoiding imposition and undertaking an equal relationship.

India should undertake more proactive engagements in the economic and social domains by enhancing Development Assistance to Nepal at the grassroot level.

In the Health sector, India may construct Emergency and Trauma Centres in Province number 01 [Biratnagar], Province 02 [Janakpuri], Province 05 [Lumbini] and Province 07 [Sudurpaschimi] and provide medical specialists, particularly in the diagnosis and treatment of COPD, TB, Ischemic heart diseases and cerebro vascular diseases, the four most important ailments in Nepal. India may also provide potable water in the provinces of one to five and seven, along with basic health services provisioning.

Infrastructure Development by India should focus on enhancing connectivity by constructing roads and railways in the Terai region for the smooth movement of goods and services. Nepal is a landlocked nation (also sometimes called an India-locked nation!) and needs access to the sea for its trade, and India and Bangladesh present the best options.

Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal [BBIN] Motor Vehicle Agreement-2015 would greatly facilitate this once the protocols, including insurance, banking guarantees, and freight carrier’s size and frequency into each country, are finalised.

Developing inland waterways for cargo moves will be a great economic booster in the region. Education is another domain wherein training of trainers by Indian

Institutes will skill teachers of Nepal. The provisioning of tools/aids/software for teaching and assessment of students and sharing the best practices of the Indian education system will boost the standard of Nepal’s education system.

Community Development by India, in particular, the capacity development undertaken to enhance job opportunities for unskilled youth and women alike by Indian IITs and the private sector, facilitate seamless tourists’ movement in Buddhist and Ramayana circuits in both nations, enhance people-to-people contact, explore soft power considering the vast constituency of 80,000 Ex-servicemen of Nepal including timely redress of their grievances/ pensionary benefits will be richly rewarding.

Trade between the two nations is presently grossly sub-optimised. The two Integrated Check Posts [ICP] were constructed in 2018 in Birgunj-Raxaul and in 2020 in the Jog Bani-Biratnagar area to facilitate bilateral trade. More such ICPs will certainly boost trade between the two nations.

The FDI is approximately 30 per cent in over 150 Indian ventures. We certainly need to increase both FDI as well as startups in telecom, tourism, banking, insurance and services sector, which would help employ Nepalese youth.

We may open our services sector further to Nepal’s unskilled youth. Pegging of Nepal and Indian currencies, which has been a long pending demand, also merits consideration on priority.

Assessment

While India’s contribution to Nepal’s peaceful growth has been substantial, India need not drive home this point ad nauseam. This leads to a patronising ‘Big Brother’ attitude that Nepalese find distasteful. India’s interactions must be muted, credible and match its status as a rising economic and regional power with responsibility towards its smaller neighbours.

A chain of initiatives in the pipeline can strengthen the relationship, making it sustainable against all disruptions and mutually beneficial. Hopefully, all will reach their logical conclusions without being impacted/ deflected by narrow political spats.

While India cannot match Chinese investments dollar to dollar, even lesser grandiose plans that India can bring to fruition, like linking Nepal with its electric power grid, would have an immense long-term impact. After all, the livelihood of millions of Nepalese is linked to the Indian economy. This is a reality that both sides cannot escape.

MYANMAR: GATEWAY TO INDIA’S ACT EAST POLICY

As its geographical neighbour and long-standing partner, India cannot afford the luxury of viewing Myanmar exclusively through “Democracy Lenses.”

India and Myanmar share a long and complex history, dating back to the ancient kingdom of Magadha. The two countries have been closely linked by trade, culture, and religion for centuries. They share a long land border of 1,643 km and a maritime boundary of 593 nautical miles in the Bay of Bengal.

In recent decades, India has sought to strengthen its ties with Myanmar as part of its “Act East” policy which aims to increase India’s engagement with Southeast Asia and connect and develop India’s Northeast.

The relationship between India and Myanmar was strained during the military rule in Myanmar from 1962 to 2011.

However, in 2015, India and Myanmar signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement to boost their ties. India and Myanmar have signed a number of agreements on trade, investment, energy, security and infrastructure development.

India’s interests in Myanmar are primarily -Myanmar is a strategically located country in Southeast Asia. It shares a border with China, India’s main rival in the region.

Myanmar is a Buddhist-majority country sharing religious heritage which has helped to strengthen the

As a stable neighbour and reliable partner, Myanmar is in India’s interest. Indian support for democratization could bring long-term stability and secure the friendship of future governments. However, backlash under a continued military regime, possibly new diplomatic ice age, should be considered by India.

ties between the two countries. Myanmar has a large population, and a potential market for Indian goods and services.

HICCUPS GALORE IN BILATERAL RELATIONS

The relationship between India and Myanmar is more dominated by geo-strategic interests rather than identity, domestic politics, or economic interests. This suggests some underlying geo-political tensions are affecting the bilateral relations between the two countries.

• Political Turbulence: The military coup in Feb 2021 by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, leading to the imprisonment of Ms Aung San Sui Kyi and subsequent civil disobedience, clashes and killings of civilians by security forces along with sanctions imposed by the west, has caused a major dilemma for India. The intensified violence in Myanmar since the military took power in February 2021 poses growing risks to Indian interests.

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SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

Meanwhile, ethnic violence has flared in the Indian state of Manipur, which borders Myanmar to the west. The unrest has pitted the majority Meitei community against the minority Kuki group, which has ethnic ties to the Chin group in Myanmar.

• Porous Border: The unfenced Indo-Myanmar border is highly vulnerable, as the provisions of the Free Move Regime agreement are being blatantly misused by arms traffickers, gold smugglers and drug peddlers alike to the discomfort of India.

• Countering Terrorism and Insurgency: The presence of insurgent groups on Myanmar soil along the Indo-Myanmar border and their efforts to continuously create instability in Indian border states has persisted for decades.

• Rohingya Crisis: The relationship between India and Myanmar has been strained in recent years due to the Rohingya crisis. The international community, including India have widely condemned Myanmar’s military crackdown on the Rohingya minority. India has called for a peaceful resolution to the crisis and has provided humanitarian assistance to the Rohingya refugees. India is providing shelter to over 40 lakhs of refugees on humanitarian grounds to ameliorate the plight of the Rohingyas as well as ensure the tense relations between Bangladesh and Myanmar do not spiral out of control. But some are being exploited for anti-national and criminal activities in India.

• China’s Expanding Influence: China plays an important role in all New Delhi’s foreign policy considerations. Hence, the relations between India and Myanmar cannot escape the shadow of the giant neighbour to the North. With the Beijing-financed construction of a harbour in Kyauk Phyu, Myanmar has become part of the so-called “String of Pearls” of Chinese deepwater ports around the Indian Ocean.

This encirclement with harbour facilities in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Myanmar is viewed with much scrutiny and suspicion in India. It is feared that these ports might someday be used not only economically but also for military purposes. Of late, Chinese ships have visited the Bay of Bengal to monitor Indian activities, including satellite launches.

• Connectivity: Improving the exchange mechanism between the two nations and a better connection from India to Southeast Asia through Myanmar as a transit country – is crucial to India. The inordinate delay in Indian-sponsored projects in Myanmar, such as Kaladan multi-modal project, is largely affecting both nations’ economic integration. The tri-lateral highway of IndiaMyanmar-Thailand is far from fructification.

• Trade: The growing interdependence of the economies of China and Myanmar in the border region and the close trade relations between Myanmar and Yunnan Province serves as a hurdle in Indo-Myanmar trade. The Chinese debt trap of Myanmar is leading to erratic foreign exchange rates. Bilateral trade between the two

countries has, for long, remained only at around $2 billion. Chinese, Singaporean, Korean, Japanese, Thai and Vietnamese businesses have actively seized business opportunities in Myanmar.

PROGNOSIS

As a stable neighbour and reliable partner, Myanmar is in India’s interest. Indian support for democratization could bring long-term stability and secure the friendship of future governments. However, backlash under a continued military regime, possibly new diplomatic ice age, should be considered by India. Also, the co-existence of India and China in Myanmar is possible as long as New Delhi can avoid direct competition and a power struggle with Beijing.

The Indo-Myanmar relations have been strengthened in recent years by several high-level visits between the two countries. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi must continue to engage Myanmar’s military ruler, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, and discuss ways to strengthen cooperation through new initiatives on a range of issues, including trade, investment and security.

Trade: Economic cooperation has developed, but it still stays at a sub-optimal level. India is Myanmar’s fourth-largest trading partner and second-largest export market, and the two countries had set a target of achieving $3 billion in bilateral trade by 2022. India must liberally provide economic assistance and loans, share Indian expertise in mining, processing precious stones, and Indian businesses could invest in the power, steel, automobiles and even textile sectors in Myanmar. More border trade points (HAATS) are necessary to accelerate trade between two nations.

Security: India and Myanmar have close security cooperation. The two countries should conduct more tri-service joint military exercises, share intelligence on terrorism and other transnational threats, help enhance maritime capacity and coastal security and provide equipment and weapon platforms as Myanmar needs.

India may also increase vacancies to train Myanmar’s military and provide Myanmar military and police assistance to help it combat terrorism and insurgency. India must ensure the Myanmar military’s cooperation in preventing North-eastern militants, most notably Naga insurgents, from using Myanmar as a safe haven. India and Myanmar should further continue with scaled-up annual bilateral naval exercises in tune with the SAGAR vision of India.

Connectivity and Infrastructure Development: India has invested in a number of projects in Myanmar, including the development of the Sittwe Port and the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project. The shipping facilities between Kolkata, Visakhapatnam, Chennai and Myanmar’s ports will ease the move of men and materials and boost trade too. Air connectivity between border cities on both sides will help enhance people-to-people contact. India could invest more in Myanmar to develop

infrastructure, including roads, railways, and ports. India must provide additional assistance to Myanmar in developing its telecom and IT sectors.

Energy: India and Myanmar have signed a Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation in the field of energy to promote the development of energy infrastructure in Myanmar and provide access to Indian energy resources. India should bid more on Myanmar oil and gas blocks open to international companies. Indian Investment in Petroleum Refinery Project in Myanmar’s Yangon aims to enhance cooperation in the energy sector and reduce Myanmar’s dependence on energy infrastructure development from China.

Myanmar aims to achieve a conditional annual target of avoiding 144 million tonnes of carbon emissions by 2030. To meet its electrification goals, Myanmar is shifting towards renewables. Strengthening the India-Myanmar electricity grid connection and accessing the large Indian power market can provide Myanmar with a reliable electricity supply. India has conducted the fifth training program for Myanmar’s power sector professionals under the ITEC (Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation) Program.

These recent developments highlight the opportunities between India and Myanmar in the energy sector, including investments, renewable energy initiatives, and capacity-building programmes.

Agriculture Research: Indian agricultural sector has a lot to offer to Myanmar in securing food security by increasing their crop yield and diversification of crops, including commercial crops. The Advanced Centre for Agriculture Research and Education set up in collaboration with India’s ICAR is a fine example of pooling research efforts on pulses and oilseeds.

Health: India has provided significant humanitarian assistance to Myanmar, including covid vaccines, medical supplies, food aid and shelter. India may help Myanmar prevent mortality, HIV/AIDS and provide advanced medical facilities by establishing such facilities in Myanmar.

Capacity Building: The capacity-building initiatives by India, such as the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) and the Indian Council for Cultural Affairs (ICCR) offering scholarships and training facilities, should be scaled up to meet Myanmar’s aspirations in skilling youth. Indian help in banking, insurance and digital technology will provide ample job opportunities in Myanmar.

Soft Power: India and Myanmar share close cultural and religious ties. There is a large Indian community in Myanmar, approximately Twenty-five lakhs; many Indians visit Myanmar for Buddhist pilgrimage and vice-versa. India has provided scholarships to Myanmar students to study in India, and the two countries have signed many agreements on cultural cooperation.

India and Myanmar have signed a Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation in education and a Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation in disaster management. Considering India and Myanmar’s cultural and religious heritage, there is a “natural” familiarity China cannot offer, particularly regarding a common Buddhist tradition. Therefore, as an important link between the countries, Buddhism will foster people-to-people contacts and serve as a foundation for generally improved relations.

Assessment

The India-Myanmar relationship is complex but also a vital one. The two countries share a common interest in maintaining peace and stability in the region.

India must acknowledge Myanmar’s military primacy and engage, lest China further exploit the situation to cause security concerns for India.

India should build an economic and security relationship that prevents Myanmar from slipping completely into the orbit of China.

THEATRE COMMANDS –FINALLY A REALITY!

By all accounts, Indian Armed Forces are at an inflexion point as the formation of their first Theatre Commands gets closer to becoming a reality.

The recent passage by the Lok Sabha of the Inter-Services Organisation (Command, Control and Discipline) Bill 2023 is a clear indication that the Indian Government is serious about the integration of the Indian military. The passage of the Indian Bill is seen as a harbinger of the real deal – the creation of Integrated Theatre Commands or military structures, self-contained to the extent possible, capable of addressing a threat/adversary in a geographically defined area through the optimum utilisation of resources, centralised joint planning and de-centralised application of power.

It brings to memory America’s Goldwater-Nichols Department of Defence Reorganization Act of 1986 that, in a top-down approach, totally overhauled the organisation and the conduct of the U.S. Armed Forces itself.

This act was aimed at fixing issues of inter-services rivalry long plaguing the U.S. defence forces and cruelly exposed during the Korean and Vietnam wars.A word of caution; while the structures might be put into place, the ability to function effectively may still be a few years away due to the complexities involved.

But the silver lining is that a beginning has been made! The U.S. armed forces faced almost a decade of turmoil putting the system in place that was finally, and effectively, tested in the first Gulf War.

A word of caution; while the structures might be put into place, the ability to function effectively may still be a few years away due to the complexities involved. But the silver lining is that a beginning has been made!

A QUICK PEEK BACK

Post OPERATION VIJAY, the Kargil Review Committee headed by Mr K Subrahmanyam recommended reorganising the entire National Security Management vis a vis it’s current ad–hoc functioning.

A Group of Ministers (GOM) under Mr Arun Singh, then MoS Defence, formed to scrutinise the National Security system, recommended the creation of the post of CDS and VCDS but stopped short of proposing Integrated Theatre Commands. It was presumed that the next logical step after a CDS would be Theatre Commands.

Some baby steps towards integration were taken when two Tri-Services Commands came into existence – the Andaman & Nicobar Command (ANC) and the Strategic Forces Command (SFC).

But, while a welcome step in the right direction, there were no significant changes in the Higher Defence Organisation or widespread integration among the three Services. Reasons were obvious- fear of los-

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION

ing control over their respective turfs, perceived lack of resources and overall inertia and resistance to change that characterises all Armed Forces (and bureaucracies) the world over.

So, the Indian Armed Forces continued to essentially rely on 17 Service based commands (inclusive of their respective training commands) to cater to any threat scenario that may emerge.

Then on 15 August 2019, Prime Minister Modi announced the creation of the CDS and Department of Military Affairs (DMA) from the ramparts of the Red Fort, which was a clear mandate to the Defence Ministry to establish Joint/Theatre Commands.

SO, WHAT CHANGED?

The short answer is – nothing and everything. Noth ing because the Shekathar Committee back in 2016 had recommended the creation of integrat ed commands.

Likewise, military strate gists propounding the ‘the Two & Half Front Theory’ (India hav ing to deal with Pakistan and China plus an Internal Security threat si multaneously) have, for a long time, expressed the need for these threats to be dealt with through synergising of warfighting concepts of the three Ser vices resulting in the application of combat power jointly – in other words, integrated the atre commands.

Meanwhile, everything changed over the past few years – the global geo-political threat scenario, China’s aggression, and infrastructure development on the LAC (even before Galwan), reorganisation of the PLA into theatre commands, a proactive Govt in Delhi, own financial constraints and last but not least, the changing character of war.

This last aspect merits elaboration because it should by itself be the raison d’etre for adopting an urgent approach to inter-service cooperation and joint operations.

The character of war has changed at a breathtaking pace fuelled by the Fourth Industrial Revolution. The bottom line is that technology offers new capabilities to combatants.

While the implications of buzzwords like AI, quantum, robotics, big data etc, are still being fully understood, there is no doubt (at every level of the Armed Forces) that these technologies are game-changers in the future of warfare.

Meanwhile, the global commons like Space and Cyber are accepted as legitimate warzones to target your adversaries. Add to this mix the profound impact of

Cognitive Warfare, and every military would need to introspect deeply into its future trajectory.

Such exponential shifts demand a re-think of how all Armed Forces the world over need to wage war. India is no exception, especially with China making its intent clear on the LAC and in the Indo-Pacific.

Unfortunately, what did not change is the resistance to Integrated Theatre Commands within our three Services and the bureaucracy for all the same reasons mentioned earlier.

The net result has been a start-stop implementation with sub-optimal progress on the ground over the past four years. Fortunately, the deadlock now appears to have been broken, and a breakthrough of some sub-

At the time of going to press, there are varied versions of what has crystallised and is likely to be imple-

However, there seems to be a broad consensus that two landbased commands (Jaipur and Lucknow) and a maritime command (Karwar) will come into

The proposed Jaipur Command would address any threat from Pakistan and should logically have the resources of the Army’s existing South Western, Western and Southern Commands and elements of the Northern Command under it.

The Lucknow-based Command will be responsible for China and other neighbouring countries in the East. The existing Army’s Eastern, Northern and Central Commands should get subsumed into this organisation.

The Maritime Command would cater to the Indo-Pacific and any sea-borne threat from Pakistan, China and the neighbourhood.

This structure appears to be a more pragmatic manifestation of the earlier proposals (which included, among others, an Air Defence Command).

Allocation of air resources to these proposed Commands is trickier to predict, given the shortage of assets and IAF’s aversion to splitting them.

One aspect which would have engaged the planners is the division of the existing Northern Command, given that in its present avatar, this command has responsibilities against both Pakistan and China with concomitant operational and logistic complexities.

A Command & Control structure to satisfy the three Services, ranks of the theatre commanders and the role of the Service Chiefs post this reorganisation are some other aspects that would have made the Headquarter(s) burn the midnight oil.

It would also be reasonable to expect joint commands for Logistics, Training, Cyber, and Space emerge even further down the road.

CROSSING THE FINISH LINE

Whether USA or UK, most major reorganisations of the Military security apparatus have seen a top-down approach. In the present circumstance in India, the political establishment as a whole has been solidly behind the changes made/proposed (CDS, DMA, Integrated Commands).

A case in point is the Inter-Services Organisation (Command, Control and Discipline) Bill 2023, which was cleared by the Parliamentary Committee on Defence, (comprising 29 political parties) without any amendments.

Even though no significant progress has been made so far, the Govt has been content to nudge and push the process along without apparently being too intrusive.

The Armed Forces need to now step up to the plate and display the true spirit of jointness by rolling out the proposal of Integrated Theatre Commands on their terms before patience wears thin and changes are thrust on them. A media report claims that the three Services are 99 per cent in agreement which is comforting.

But as experience has shown, anything less than 100 per cent is in matters of National Security is worrying.

Assessment

The creation of Theatre Commands is a fast-approaching reality, with a formal announcement likely to be made at a politically expedient date and time.

The proposed structures appear to be a pragmatic compromise of earlier plans, but many of the questions regarding the allocation of resources, command & control and demarcation of boundaries remain. Though far from ideal, some of these areas of concern are likely to be addressed over time and maybe even through a process of trial and error. In other words, do not expect the perfect solution.

While both the political and military establishments have accepted the necessity of Integrated Theatre Commands in India, the gap between the creation of these structures to their realising their full capability can take anything up to a decade. The Nation, in general, and the Armed Forces, in particular, would need to be mindful that India’s competitors/adversaries do not exploit this perceived imbalance during this period.

“GLOBAL HEALING, LOCAL AILING?”

Many Indians may not fully realize the extent of the achievements and advancements within the Indian healthcare sector, primarily because they often find themselves facing challenges when seeking treatment in our crowded, overburdened, and less-than-ideal public healthcare system.

However, an alternate reality exists – one where medical standards and capabilities rival those found in the Global North, accompanied by luxurious accommodations – the private medical healthcare system. Unfortunately, this option remains beyond the means of many Indians, although it is readily accessible to middle-class citizens from North America, Europe, and the Gulf region, who increasingly travel to India for medical purposes, a phenomenon known as ‘medical tourism.’

The general public in India becomes aware of these exemplary medical facilities, often referred to as ‘islands of excellence,’ through media coverage of compelling human interest stories. These stories highlight instances of Indian medical experts successfully assisting foreign patients. If such patients happen to be from Pakistan, our neighbouring country with strained relations, the media interest is even more significant. One unforgettable case is that of 54-year-old Pakistani woman, Zaib-un-Nisa, whose life was saved on August 14, 2012 (Pakistan’s Independence Day) through a complex

The emergence of India as a hub for medical tourism and the attendant proliferation of high-quality healthcare for the affluent and foreign visitors raises serious ethical and policy questions. Despite these advancements, millions in both rural and urban India lack access to the most fundamental healthcare facilities that are standard in many developed nations.

liver transplant with arterial reconstruction performed by a team of doctors in New Delhi. The same team of doctors also generously donated their blood for the patient’s treatment. There are many such heart-warming stories.

GROWTH OF MEDICAL TOURISM IN INDIA

Medical tourism, the practice of traveling to another country for the sole purpose of seeking medical treatment, has witnessed exponential growth in recent years. As healthcare costs continue to rise in many developed nations, patients are increasingly looking beyond their borders for more affordable and accessible treatment options. In this rapidly evolving landscape, India has emerged as a formidable player in the medical tourism industry, offering high-quality healthcare services at a fraction of the cost in other countries. With a combina-

“Private health care may be thriving, but India’s public system is in dire need. This alarming disparity is a challenge we must confront.”

Sambratha Shetty is the COO at Synergia Foundation and holds a Masters’ in Science from the University of Greenwich, UK.

tion of cutting-edge medical facilities, skilled healthcare professionals, specialized treatments, and a rich cultural experience, India has become a sought-after destination for patients from around the world. Cost-effectiveness is one of the primary factors driving India’s rise as a medical tourism hub. The country offers significantly lower prices for a wide range of medical procedures and treatments compared to the United States, Europe, and other developed countries. Even after considering travel and accommodation expenses, patients can still save between 65 to 90 per cent on medical costs by choosing India for their treatments. This affordability has been a compelling reason for patients, particularly those from countries with expensive healthcare systems, to seek medical care in India.

Furthermore, India’s medical infrastructure has undergone remarkable advancements, boasting stateof-the-art technology and facilities on par with leading hospitals in developed nations. Many hospitals in India have achieved international accreditations, ensuring compliance with global standards of medical care and patient safety. This commitment to quality has garnered trust and confidence from international patients, making India an attractive destination for medical tourists seeking top-tier healthcare services.

A crucial element in India’s success as a medical tourism destination is the presence of highly skilled and specialized medical professionals. The country is home to a large number of doctors and healthcare practitioners who have received extensive training both domestically and abroad. Many of these professionals are renowned for their expertise in specialized medical fields, offering treatments that may not be readily available in the patients’ home countries. Their reputation for providing excellent care draws patients from diverse backgrounds seeking specialized treatments and proce-

dures. Besides conventional medical treatments, India’s alternative medicine practices have also gained international recognition. Treatments like Ayurveda, Yoga, Siddha, and Naturopathy have been practised in India for centuries and have become increasingly popular among medical tourists seeking holistic healthcare solutions. India’s ability to integrate traditional healing methods with modern medicine further sets it apart as a holistic medical destination.

India’s ascendancy as a leading medical tourism destination can be attributed to a confluence of attractive features. The large English-speaking healthcare workforce sets India apart from other destinations like Thailand, easing language barriers and facilitating clear communication. The country’s robust pharmaceutical industry ensures low costs for post-operative medications and biologicals, further tipping the scale in its favour.

Attractive combo treatment packages that include local tours and sightseeing add a unique appeal, while the possibility of teleconsultation due to India’s expansive IT infrastructure ensures continuity of care even after patients return home. The affordability of travel medicine, vaccinations, and globally valid insurance packages that can be reimbursed in India further contribute to the allure. The presence of Western-trained healthcare experts instils additional confidence in medical tourists, and the positive testimonies of patients who have had successful interventions or therapies in India serve as powerful endorsements. Collectively, these elements create a compelling argument for India’s position as a hotspot for medical tourism.

CUTTING OUT THE RED TAPE

The Indian government and private stakeholders

Source : Cartoonstock

have been proactive in recognizing the potential of medical tourism and have taken steps to foster its growth. Policies have been implemented to ensure transparency and quality of care, and efforts have been made to prevent malpractices and discriminatory regulations that could hinder the industry’s development. Additionally, India has streamlined visa processes, expanded medical facilities, and invested in infrastructure development to enhance the overall experience for medical tourists.

Tourism plays a vital role in India’s economy, and the combination of medical and leisure tourism has given rise to a unique concept called “medication.” Patients and their accompanying family members can combine medical travel with exploring India’s rich cultural heritage, diverse landscapes, and world-renowned tourist attractions. From exploring bustling cities like Delhi and Mumbai to basking on the serene beaches of Goa or experiencing the tranquillity of the Himalayas, India offers a myriad of experiences to complement the medical journey.

India’s success in medical tourism is reflected in the numbers. The global medical tourism market is projected to grow from $13.98 billion in 2021 to $53.51 billion in 2028 at a CAGR of 21.1 per cent, and India holds a significant share of this market. Every year, India welcomes

approximately 2 million patients from 78 countries seeking medical and wellness treatments. These visitors contribute significantly to the industry, generating an impressive $6 billion in revenue. As per projections, with the support of the government’s “Heal in India” initiative, this figure is expected to soar to $13 billion by 2026.

SPILLOVER EFFECTS

The impact of medical tourism extends beyond economic benefits. It plays a pivotal role in job creation, profit generation, and foreign exchange earnings for hospitals and healthcare institutions in India. Moreover, the reputation built as a preferred healthcare destination has bestowed upon India a valuable form of soft power, positioning the country as the Healing Centre of the world. This elevated status further strengthens India’s global presence and influence in the realm of healthcare.

Some of India’s most sought-after medical procedures encompass a wide range of specialities. Dental work, arthroplasty, cataract surgery, bariatric and cosmetic surgeries, reproductive care, tissue and organ transplants are among the most popular treatments offered. Patients from abroad find India appealing due to the low prices and minimal waiting times for these procedures.

India has also been recognised as a preferred destination for advanced medical treatments. Cardiac bypass surgery, eye surgeries, orthopaedic procedures, dental treatments, and reproductive care such as in vitro fertilization are commonly sought after by international patients. India’s healthcare institutions have successfully carried out complex procedures, attracting patients seeking advanced medical solutions.

One of the most compelling aspects of medical tourism in India is the stark con trast in costs between India and other coun tries. Medical procedures that may be financially burdensome in developed nations can be significantly more affordable in India. For instance, a heart surgery that costs around $45,955 in the United States can be performed in India for approximately $4,595. This vast difference in cost, coupled with the assurance of high-quality healthcare services, has been a driving force behind the rapid growth of India’s medical tourism industry.

TOP 5 MEDICAL TOURISM DESTINATIONS IN INDIA:

Five cities have emerged as the top destination for medical tourism.

Chennai stands out as one of India’s most favoured medical tourism destinations. Renowned for its high standard of care, nearly 40 per cent of patients choose Chennai for their medical needs, as reported by the Confederation of Indian Industries. Often referred to as the “health capital of India,” Chennai attracts foreign patients seeking a range of treatments, including hip replacements, eye surgeries, cardiac bypasses, bone marrow transplants, and alternative medical procedures.

Mumbai boasts India’s fastest-growing medical tourism industry, making it a significant player in the healthcare sector. The city houses numerous super-speciality hospitals and a Research and Diagnostic Centre for orthopaedic and weight reduction procedures. Additionally, Mumbai is well-known for its expertise in Ayurvedic therapies and cosmetic surgeries, making it a sought-after destination for traditional and modern medical treatments.

As the nation’s capital, New Delhi houses several outstanding private hospitals catering to foreign patients. These hospitals offer specialized packages for various treatments, including general surgery, eye surgery, heart care, and neurosurgery. The city’s medical facilities and services attract diverse international patients seeking top-notch medical care.

Gradually rising to prominence as a medical tourism hub, Ahmedabad has become a preferred choice for many non-resident patients seeking treatment in India. The city’s hospitals are equipped with top-notch ame-

nities, providing quality healthcare services to patients worldwide.

Bangalore, known as the “Silicon Valley of India,” has gained recognition in the medical tourism sphere due to its abundance of top-notch medical facilities and highly skilled specialists. Many medical professionals in Bangalore have received advanced Western training, offering cutting-edge treatments and expertise. With minimal waiting times and quick access to medical care, Bangalore appeals to visitors seeking high-quality treatments and personalized care.

A CONTRARIAN PERSPECTIVE

The emergence of India as a hub for medical tourism and the attendant proliferation of high-quality healthcare for the affluent and foreign visitors raises serious ethical and policy questions. Despite these advancements, millions in both rural and urban India lack access to the most fundamental healthcare facilities that are standard in many developed nations. As a nation with the largest population globally, India grapples with the considerable challenge of delivering affordable and world-class healthcare to over a billion people. A cursory examination of government-run hospitals in major cities reveals the dire conditions faced by the average citizen: long waiting times, overcrowded wards, shared beds, and an infrastructure that mirrors some of the world’s most impoverished nations. The public healthcare sector, though vital, is met with widespread distrust, leaving many Indians with limited options.

The inherent right to quality healthcare calls for significant government investment. The recent pandemic exposed the stark deficiencies within the Indian healthcare system, underscoring an urgent need for reform. According to the Economic Survey 2022-23 presented in the Indian Parliament, the combined federal and state government healthcare budget has hovered around 2% of GDP in recent years, a figure dwarfed by the nearly 18% spent by the U.S. While the onus of funding and managing the public healthcare system falls on the government, the burgeoning private sector must also assume responsibility. By allocating a portion of profits to the development of accessible and affordable healthcare services, particularly in rural areas, the private sector can play a crucial role in addressing systemic disparities.

Alarmingly, current data reveals that a mere 2% of doctors serve the rural population, a fact that stands in stark contrast to a thriving private healthcare segment targeting gross earnings of around $18 billion in the next three years. This juxtaposition illustrates the profound imbalance and inequities that persist in the Indian healthcare landscape and calls for a thoughtful re-evaluation of priorities and policies.

CBAMS: A DEAL BREAKER

India has opposed the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism( CBAM) proposal, citing concerns about unilateral and discriminatory trade barriers.

On July 14, 2021, as part of the EU’s ‘Fit for 55’ Package of policy proposals, the concept of a (CBAM) was introduced. The primary purpose of this proposed EU CBAM is to address the potential risks of “carbon leakage” arising from the strengthened Emissions Trading System (ETS) in the EU and the gradual phasing out of free allowances. However, there is a significant debate concerning the actual likelihood of carbon leakage resulting from environmental and climate policies, as well as the overall appropriateness of the proposed EU CBAM.

The main goal of the CBAM is to support the EU in achieving its climate neutrality objectives while also incentivising partner countries to decarbonise their production processes. This is achieved by establishing a balanced carbon pricing framework aligning costs between the EU and third-country producers.

TRADE VERSUS CLIMATE

The European Commission introduced CBAM proposal to complement the European Green Deal (EGD). Under this proposal, importers are required to cover the “embedded emissions” in specific carbon-intensive production sectors, including cement, electricity, fertilisers, iron and steel, and aluminium. While producers within the EU already pay for emissions through the

In plain words, any company/ country wishing to sell carbon-intensive goods to the EU will have to shell an additional levy, making its products much more costly. Since domestic manufacturers within the EU use expensive climate-friendly processes to cut down carbon emissions, their costs are naturally higher. CBAM will create a level playing field outside the 27-member trading bloc.

Emission Trading System (ETS), the CBAM’s purpose is to extend this responsibility to foreign producers when they seek access to the European market. The recently set objective is to decrease net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by a minimum of 55% by 2030, relative to the 1990 levels.

In plain words, any company/ country wishing to sell carbon-intensive goods to the EU will have to shell an additional levy, making its products much more costly. Since domestic manufacturers within the EU use expensive climate-friendly processes to cut down carbon emissions, their costs are naturally higher. CBAM will create a level playing field outside the 27-member trading bloc.

It will be mandatory for imported goods to be validated by digital certificates representing the carbon emission tonnage embedded during their manufacture.

Ritika Simon Research Associate in Synergia Foundation and has Post Graduate Degree in Economics, Risk and Society from the London School of Economics

The price of these digital certificates will reflect that of the EU’s emissions trading system. However, if the products have already been subject to a carbon levy in the countries of origin, the imports may be eligible for a cost reduction. These regulations are bound to make Indian exports to EU, one of its most lucrative export destinations, cost more and thus lose competitiveness.

To ensure a seamless transition that provides businesses with legal stability, the CBAM will be implemented in a phased manner. Initially, it will only apply to a select list of goods with high risks of carbon leakage, like cement, aluminium, electricity, fertilisers, iron, and steel.

Once importers have monitored and reported their emissions for an interim period (2023-25), the system will be fully operational by 2026. EU businesses will be expected to make an annual declaration about the quantity of goods and the amount of emissions embedded in their imports, which will determine the corresponding number of CBAM certificates that need to be purchased.

For now, the adjustment mechanism will only apply to the production of those goods that directly emit greenhouse gases. It will not cover indirect emissions like the generation of electricity to produce goods.

GEOPOLITICAL COSTS

As was to be expected, the CBAM received extensive domestic support with great traction in countries like France, Germany, Poland, and Spain. The U.S. is also working along similar lines with its own version of border tax adjustments to protect against carbon leakage and ‘unfair competition’ in international trade.

However, despite the apparent environmental benefits, the CBAM has been met with rising protests by a host of trading partners- Russia, India, South Africa, China, Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. According to them, the CBAM is a ‘disguised’ tax or tariff, which promotes a protectionist regime and violates the spirit of an international free trading system. Its impact will be disproportionately felt by companies in emerging markets that have based their competitiveness on a combination of cheap labour and low manufacturing costs. For instance, the BRICS countries criticised CBAM as discriminatory, and the Australian Minister for Trade, Dan Tehan, expressed concern that it would have adverse effects on global growth and hinder free trade on a global scale.

China, in particular, has argued that the EU’s plan tends to conflate climate issues with trade, thereby impeding the prospects for economic growth. Given that the country is one of the largest manufacturers of industrial raw materials, this criticism is no surprise.

INDIA VIEW

Implementing CBAM will impose higher economic and financial ramifications on Indian goods, posing a considerable risk to a significant portion of India’s exports to the EU. Based on the most recent data from the RBI, the current account deficit for FY 2022-23 was recorded at 2% of GDP. Considering that Indian exports to the 27-member EU amounted to $65 billion in FY 2021-22, any price increase in these exports due to CBAM implementation could impact trade volumes and potentially lead to an expansion of the current account deficit. Applying CBAM to sectors like iron and steel may pose challenges for India. As the second-largest producer of crude steel globally, India exports approx-

Value of imports from developoing countries (left axis) Imports from developing countries as a proportion of total imports (right axis)

FIGURE 1: EU IMPORTS OF CARBON-INTENSIVE PRODUCTS FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, 2019

imately 3-5 million tonnes of finished steel to Europe annually. However, the higher carbon emission intensity of Indian steel compared to the global average means that firms will need to make additional technological investments to comply with CBAM requirements.

India’s stance, where it shares the views of the developing world, cites the principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities.’ The rich countries, having reached their current level of prosperity through an unrestrained carbon-intensive industry, must bear the primary responsibility to bring down their per capita greenhouse gas emissions to the global average. Apart from vacating carbon space for developing nations, developed countries are expected to assist their poorer counterparts with financial and technological assistance to meet climate action targets.

Throughout India’s climate transition journey, Indian firms have been actively advocating for renewable energy. As they progress, these firms will discover that specific production locations offer a more favourable environment for unrestricted and cost-effective renewable electricity purchases. This could be due to either the absence of restrictions imposed by distribution companies or direct access to the Inter-State Transmission System. For instance, JSW Steel Ltd. has set a target to fulfil up to 60% of its electricity requirements from renewable sources by 2030. Similarly, Tata Steel Ltd. has also committed to sourcing 100% of its electricity needs from renewable energy. Both companies are investing in captive solar and wind power generation to achieve their renewable energy goals. The establishment of the India Hydrogen Alliance aims to promote the commercialisation of hydrogen technologies and support the proposed National Hydrogen Energy Mission.

On the international front, India should engage in bilateral negotiations with the EU, urging them to recognise India’s energy taxes as equivalent to a carbon price, allowing for tax reductions. Furthermore, India should follow the lead of countries like China and Russia and start preparing for the new system by instituting a carbon trading system.

To avoid adverse impacts in a scenario dominated by protectionist climate policies from other nations, India should either establish a carbon trading system similar to the ETS or modify existing mechanisms to align with the ETS. Investing in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology would help capture carbon emissions from manufacturing processes before they are released into the atmosphere, securely storing them underground.

THE WAY AHEAD

Businesses in emerging economies like India must take proactive measures to navigate the forthcoming changes. During the transition period, businesses will need to report the embedded emissions in imported goods every quarter, offering a detailed breakdown of direct and indirect emissions, along with any carbon price paid in the country of origin for that specific quarter of the calendar year.

The subsequent task for businesses is to evaluate the effect of CBAM on their products and make necessary adjustments to production processes and supply chains to minimise potential risks. After the transitional period concludes in 2026, additional industries will come under the purview of the CBAM regime.

This period can be viewed as an opportunity for industries to reduce carbon emissions and maintain competitiveness in the global market. For Indian exporters, there is hope, as investing in R&D to decarbonise production processes can lead to positive outcomes.

Assessment

The EU’s CBAM is an innovative policy establishing a crucial connection between climate change mitigation and global trade. While it shows potential in hastening the shift to a greener economy worldwide, it also poses challenges, especially for developing nations that heavily rely on international trade and require support for a just and equitable green transition.

A waiver clause exists for exporting countries with a relatively robust carbon pricing scheme. However, this would entail bilateral preferential trade agreements or upgrading existing accords. This should act as an incentive to upgrade to green production processes with EU benchmarks by all of EU’s trading partners.

For India, the CBAM has come at a particularly sensitive time when it was deliberating the possibility of a free trade agreement with the EU as a logical culmination of the flourishing economic relationship between the two allies. The proposed carbon border levy could throw a spanner into the works.

Steel & Iron Aluminium Cement Fertilizer

FIGURE 2: POTENTIAL CARBON TAX FOR PRODUCTS EXPORTED FROM INDIA (%)

INDIA: NAVIGATING POSTPANDEMIC REALITIES

The economic fallout of the pandemic and increasing Western disenchantment with China’s stranglehold on global value chains opens a new vista for the Indian economy.

In today’s global economy, over two-thirds of world trade operates through Global Value Chains (GVCs), a process where production involves crossing one or multiple borders before reaching the final assembly stage. The remarkable expansion of GVC-related trade has resulted in significant economic progress in numerous countries, attributed to decreased transportation and communication costs and reduced trade barriers.

This approach has proven advantageous for countries as it enables them to move away from reliance on primary products and focus on the production of manufactured goods and services.

However, this surge in global trade has also brought about distributional effects, meaning that the gains from trade have not been evenly distributed, leading to a backlash against globalisation.

GLOBAL PRODUCTION: A NEW DIRECTION

In the wake of the significant upheaval brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic on international supply chains, businesses around the globe are reconsidering and recalibrating their procurement strategies. This shift in global trade dynamics and the committed initiatives to build resilient and diverse manufacturing and

The economic turmoil instigated by the pandemic and other disturbances has exposed numerous vulnerabilities in supply chains and has, at times, questioned the benefits of globalisation. Business leaders worldwide should take this opportunity to reassess their supply networks, pinpoint weaknesses, and implement measures to strengthen resilience.

supply chains have presented emerging economies with a novel chance to transition into production hubs GVC.

In the last twenty years, global production processes have been fragmented, with GVCs evolving into a primary organisational model. In 2019, forty weather-related catastrophes occurred, each inflicting damages exceeding $1 billion, and the financial consequences of the most severe incidents have been escalating. Participation in GVCs has shown to yield numerous development advantages that countries such as India are keen to harness.

Given the amplified influence of digitalisation and the persisting pandemic, it is crucial for India to reassess its trade policies and give precedence to the creation and enhancement of its GVCs. This strategic manoeuvre will accelerate export diversification for the country.

NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR INDIA

Reshaping Supply Chain: Scope for Domestic Demand. India’s potential to evolve into a prominent manufacturing hub hinges on the amalgamation of demand and initiative.

In the current scenario, the reshaping of GVCs’ geographic configuration is garnering increased focus from business executives and policymakers due to heightened attention towards risk evaluation.

For India, this situation opens up fresh opportunities for engagement in global trade.

The pandemic triggered a re-evaluation of the geopolitical perils linked to China’s centralised supply chains, prompting numerous governments to explore alternate sourcing locales.

To ensure resilience, it is crucial for India to diversify its acquisition of electronic-grade silicon, which can help counteract risks related to dependence on a single supplier.

The Pursuit of Trade Policies: A Government-led Initiative. Expanding industry has been at the forefront of the Indian government’s agenda for many years.

Nevertheless, previous efforts to draw relevant investment have not been met, with most FDI funnelling into services and advanced technology platforms.

India’s “Make in India” campaign has taken shape through Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes. The PLI schemes have brought about a paradigm shift

in India’s exports, transitioning the export basket from traditional commodities to high-value-added goods like electronics, telecommunication products, and processed food items. However, several predicted hurdles have materialised after three years of executing PLIs.

Despite its obstacles, there have been notable advancements. India’s aggregate exports witnessed a significant increase of 12.5%, exceeding US$263 billion during the period from April to November 2022.

This spike is due to numerous countries decreasing their reliance on oil products refined in Russia. Conversely, India, which has escalated its crude imports from Russia, is refining and exporting it to multiple countries, especially Europe.

REALIGNING GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS WITHIN INDIA

Digitalisation: New pathways for export diversification. Digitalising pre-manufacturing activities has reduced cost and time for product development.

The dawn of digitalisation has paved the way for new opportunities in diversifying exports along value chains.

Companies such as Hyundai Motors India Limited and Mahindra and Mahindra, which initially specialised in manufacturing commercial and utility vehicles, expanded their capabilities to cater to the passenger car segment by adopting digital technologies.

This resulted in increased output, reduced changeover costs, quicker delivery times, and enhanced product quality.

FIGURE 1: GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN PARTICIPATION RATES, WORLD, 1995-2020 (%)

Boosting Growth Through Government-Led Infrastructure Development. The Indian government is actively promoting the country’s growth, planning to invest $1.4 trillion in infrastructure projects over the next five years through the National Infrastructure Pipeline.

This investment is aimed at enticing global businesses to India’s manufacturing sec tors.

Incentives such as tax breaks and stream lined bureaucratic pro cesses have been intro duced.

This investment, along with broader infrastructure en hancements in India, signifies the country’s growing stature in the global supply chain.

CONCLUSION

The emergence of global value chains does not fundamentally alter trade theory, but it does offer refined understanding. Free trade is the most advantageous policy for both developed and developing countries.

The economic turmoil instigated by the pandemic and other disturbances has exposed numerous vulner-

abilities in supply chains and has, at times, questioned the benefits of globalisation. Business leaders worldwide should take this opportunity to reassess their supply networks, pinpoint weaknesses, and implement measures to strengthen resilience.

A breakaway from a linear chain towards a multidimensional grid perspective provides significant opportunities for innovation.

Innovation is drastically changing every aspect of the supply chain.

With globalisation, increased product complexity, and elevated customer demands, companies leverage advanced technologies to transform their supply chains from operational hubs into centres of business innovation.

Utilising sensors and continually improving internet connectivity, forward-thinking companies can collect data at every stage, from the flow of raw material to the condition and location of finished goods.

Moreover, additive manufacturing allows for easy production of spare parts, reducing inventory, cutting costs, and creating additional revenue streams.

FIGURE 3: MAJOR EXPORT COMMODITY BASKET TRENDS (2015-20)

CLIMATE CHANGE & FTA sAN OBSCURE ALLIANCE

As humankind hurtles recklessly towards a climate Armageddon, can FTAs mitigate the impact of unbridled commerce on the environment?

Saying climate and trade in the same breath while speaking of saving the environment may sound oxymoronic, but the truth is that there is a deep linkage between the two. Therefore, there is a need to understand how to stitch together Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) to curb the redundancy of climate change clauses and make environment-protecting provisions enforceable.

TRADE AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEPREDATION

Climate change movements have always been seen as a last resort by the general population, something to be actioned upon in the distant future.

However, deep ecology affirms that our anthropocentric view of the world creates a hierarchy within the spectrum of movements: geographic, economic, racial, feminist, caste and so on. People cannot be held accountable for the subjective value they place on different struggles. More precisely, it would be insensitive to expect someone who barely makes a living to prioritise critical events like global warming, water pollution and deforestation. The real power to make a difference regarding protocols affecting climate change lies in the hands of the Global North. As per deep ecology, the

Now, well drafted FTAs look beyond pure profit to environmental concerns, thanks to the climate crisis. Today, most Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) and trade organisations stress the link between trade and the environment, giving greater importance to technologies fostering sustainable development and adherence to climate change mitigation frameworks.

power for change is centralised with the WEIRD-the Western, Educated, Industrialised, Rich and Democratic. This segment of the global population possesses the capacity, intelligence, and timeline to implement legitimate policies of change on an international scale, which is the need of the hour. And the nations that WEIRDs inhabit owe their current level of industrialisation and the accompanying prosperity from trade on a global scale.

In developing countries, the primary and secondary sectors of the economy provide the maximum employment to their unskilled labourers. These are the sectors dealing with the extraction and refining of raw materials, manufacturing goods, etc. Globalisation and international supply lines provide developing countries with larger markets and higher revenue generation, thus propelling economic growth. For countries that lack natural endowments, trade allows them to avail the

Diya Celine Simon Research Associate in Synergia Foundation with a Bachelor’s in Media and Communications, English Literature and Psychology from Christ (Deemed to be University).

resources they require in their economies. However, this comes at a cost- international trade often results in increased emissions and pollution due to higher energy consumption in factories and rising emission from road/rail/air/transportation systems ferrying trade goods between continents.

Of course, some specialised categories of industry are more polluting than others, and thanks to globalisation, this specialisation has been perfected to a fine degree. Some distinct industries are intrinsically more polluting, consume a greater quantity of natural resources and present health concerns for the workers. The leather industry is one such sector, and it is not surprising; such a specialised industry is increasingly being banished by the developed world to the South. Ecology insists that the growth rate of such specialist industries must be balanced out while sustaining the generational goals of global consumption habits and the economic viability of the workers working in such industries.

ENVIRONMENTAL PROVISIONS IN FTAS

Legal provisions form the heart FTAs making them implementable. These bindings allow the signatories the flexibility to expand their mutual trade of goods, services, invest ment, and information and ease business and raise profits through mutually agreed to tariff rates. Now, well drafted FTAs look beyond pure profit to environmental concerns, thanks to the climate crisis. Today, most Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) and trade organisations stress the link between trade and the environment, giving greater importance to technologies fostering sustainable development and adherence to climate change mitigation frameworks.

However, these provisions have a superficial level of functionality. Without detailed instructions on how the transactions will take place while observing the climate friendly provision of the FTA, most climate measures remain largely in theory. Furthermore, since the clauses on environment are written in such guarded language, it is almost impossible to make drastic changes in production, trade and investments.

MAKING A DIFFERENCE

Environmental activism remained in limbo for long as climate change as a factor in global trade had ambivalent credibility; few accepted it as an existential threat to the ecosystem. The situation dramatically changed in 21st Century as our generation experienced its catastrophic consequences in real time. With around 2030 per cent of global carbon emissions attributed to international trade (as of June 2023), it is crystal clear that conventional FTAs have been grossly inadequate in managing and mitigating the directed environmental threats. Therefore, while we should not expect miracles from the environmental clauses of FTAs, a beginning is a positive development. Current FTAs focus only on terminologies like “encourage” and “ensure” to

show that due diligence is being given to climate issues. However, the level of transparency on the mitigation measures remains, at best superficial.

It should be taken for granted that if a mutually beneficial FTA is generating economic growth and higher incomes for all parties, surely a larger proportion of these earnings can be dedicated towards environment management- better waste management, movement away from polluting industries as they naturally progress from the primary sector to an increased number of tertiary sector industries, etc. With increased access to the latest (and less polluting) technology and superior infrastructure, the entire production cycle can be made greener. More importantly, if influential trading partners in the developed world insist upon higher environmental standards from their suppliers in the developing world and assist them with the requisite technology, the environmental benefits accrued would be significant and sustainable.

FAST FASHION - A CASE IN POINT

Fast fashion is becoming popular in conversations surrounding sustainability and environmental consciousness. It refers to the rapid change of fashion largely seen in the apparel industry, where cheaply produced and priced clothing is pumped through the retail network at lightning speeds to maximise current, short-lived trends. This industry partakes in vast amounts of international trade and with more rigorous legislation over its practices, which potentially should have far fewer negative humanitarian and environmental impacts. The fashion industry is known to indulge in exceedingly wasteful energy-intensive processes based on fossil fuels in the production stage, responsible for 10 per cent of total global emissions (equal to the EU’s). Even worse is the waste involved, as 85 per cent of all textiles end up in dumps annually. Emissions from textile manufacturing alone are projected to skyrocket by 60 per cent by 2030.

Including and enhancing a labour dimension in FTAs could help combat issues on both fronts-labour clauses to protect human rights, prevent exploitation and the breaching of ethical standards in workplaces and climate clauses to keep emissions and polluting chemicals down.

But such inhibiting clauses come at a price as the industry is forced to raise work environment standards, fix globally accepted minimum wages, limit weekly working hours, lay down ergonomics standards for machine-intensive segments etc. While this may benefit the workers, the added cost must be borne ultimately by the customer. Socialists would say since the fast fashion industry caters to the wants, not the needs, of a select group of people and profits off the short-lived nature of the trends, the additional cost should be acceptable. The higher cost is also justified to curb the overconsumption with clothes no longer “trendy’ being either shipped in container loads to poor countries or dumped in overflowing landfills to poison the subsoil

and groundwater, contributing to the environmental havoc. However, a contrary view is that with cheaper inputs, the apparel industry as a whole (and not the high-brow haute couture segment) has enabled more people to buy cheap clothing manufactured in some third-world factory (or sweatshop, as social workers would call it). This has also improved the quality of life of the masses in developing countries.

THE ARAL SEA DILEMMA

We see similar patterns when it comes to resources and raw materials. Industries can source raw inputs for lower costs in countries rich in these natural reserves. An example of the overconsumption of natural resources is the drying up of the Aral Sea caused by unsustainable cotton cultivation. Once the world’s fourth largest lake, located between Kazakhstan to the north and Uzbekistan to the south, the Aral Sea shrunk to half its former size within 40 years of cotton cultivation under the Soviet Union.

In the scheme of things contrived in far-off Kremlin, Central Asia was selected to serve as the hub of Soviet cotton supply, despite a long history of grappling with water scarcity. The Soviet-era policies of output maximisation created a greater humanitarian oversight towards the needs of the communities dependent on water sources. Farmers ignored their traditional water conservation practises, leading to a vanished lake leaving behind muddy cesspools full of toxic salts that cause acid rains. So, from an otherwise agriculturally self-sufficient area, the regions on the shores of Lake Aral have now become poverty-stricken and jobless.

This mismanagement of resources, stemming from the lack of a long-term, sustainable development perspective, could have been prevented or at least curbed if industries took less short-term, profit-centric approaches to utilise these water sources and ensured the education of locals against the same. Local cotton farmers and cultivators are unlikely to have the liberty or the information to see the future impact of their

wasteful methods. The impact and potential of educating the consumer on what they consume and keeping the production houses accountable for what they manufacture have rippling positive effects on communities. Including clauses in FTAs regarding transparency of information-sharing between countries can improve sustainability and prevent mismanagement of resources. It will also enable sharing/provision of infrastructure/ equipment/ technology that might facilitate better managing waste generated from these industries. If all these measures had been adopted, the Aral Sea would still be alive today!

THE HUMAN FACE OF COMMERCE

International brands maximise their profits and minimise production costs by taking advantage of the cheap labour available globally, underlining the fact that the environmental crisis has a human face that cannot be ignored. Few people understand, or care to educate themselves on, how global economies can sustain themselves while adhering to good environmental norms in business. This ambivalence is the first cause of mistrust between the voting populace and the legislation. Lowskilled workers and educated voters are suspicious of unchecked corporate interests that drive bilateral and multilateral trade patterns.

History gives a detailed description of industrialisation and the emergence of a new class - the middle class that increased the purchasing of the general population, unlike ever before. This increased power has also increased the vulnerability of the poorer sections of societies that can neither afford most commodities traded between foreign markets nor protect themselves from being on the frontline of climate change. To bluntly put it, the bourgeois gamble with the lives of the underprivileged because they are not the ones bearing the immediate brunt of rising global temperatures, lower groundwater levels, erratic rainfalls, rising sea levels, heat waves and other environmental crises. In addition, the mimicry of Western consumption styles in Eastern global markets has only worsened the situation. When

“ I Trust the gentlemen find everything to their linking?

Source : Cartoonstock

we look at trade in the post-Covid world, East Asian economies benefited significantly through the exports of covid related products, and the Western economies had to ‘break the buck’ and sustain themselves on decreased exports. This spurred the debate about increasing self-reliance and de-globalisation of economic growth. However, the idealism of a world where each country can sustain itself is now utopic and statistically unachievable. The world has become more integrated, and separating economies would foster mistrust and malpractices. Where does this leave policymakers and the WEIRD (Westernised, Educated, Industrialised, Rich and Democratic) population as the avant-garde of civilisation and advocates of awareness, education and change?

THE WAY FORWARD

Even an organisation like the Armed Forces, which traditionally have seldom bothered to clean up the environmental mess they usually leave behind in their wake, are waking up to the reality of climate change. For example, the U.S. Army, in its Climate Strategy, is procuring a fleet of field purpose-built hybrid drive tactical vehicles to replace the current fossil fuel ones by 2035 and supply 100 per cent carbon-free electricity to all Army installations by 2030! In the same vein, all high-altitude mountaineering expeditions of the Indian Army are expected to bring back as much of the mountaineering detritus polluting the Himalayas as humanely possible. Trade industries can draw inspiration from the military to understand efficiency and effectiveness maximisation.

Environmentally efficient products must always have a sustainable circular flow, and the efficiency of the recycling industry has been no secret. Most of the zero-carbon emission vehicles require batteries made of lithium. Trading these batteries as a fundamental solution is not the true solution to the problem. Priority should be towards longer-term innovation and modernisation of the current utility. The way forward is to look at the root of the problem - not only the emissions themselves but also the energy sources generating these emissions, which are dominantly fossil fuels. Climate change tremendously impacts the energy industry, with fossil fuel combustion accounting for twothirds of global greenhouse gas emissions. The use of fossil fuels for power production is the primary cause of climate change, but energy provides a critical basis for social and economic advancement. This is where

fundamental changes must take place. We must create globally sustainable energy alternatives, trade with these resources, innovate infrastructure resilience and educate the global populace on the spectrums of efficiency without hidden political agenda. Knowledge and innovative thinking are equally required to persuade a sceptical public that free trade is a legitimate path to the post-COVID future of economic, environmental and social recovery. On the other hand, trade can be a tricky area of understanding because of its depth in layers and terminology, but one thing’s for sure; there is a big enough smoke screen that clouds the judgement of the public and policymakers.

Compatibility between environmental provisions and FTAs increases if provisions invoke systemic changes with a vision and mission rather than simply testify to market performances, as they may be manipulative. One significant aspect that the leaders of comprehensive FTA discussions must highlight is that result-producing provisions are more than geopolitical and geoeconomic promises of bilateral or multilateral activity but a roadmap for change. Industries and foreign markets must anticipate drastic changes at the foundational level of production, trade, consumption and pricing of commodities to accommodate the climate change goals to their full potential. Without these changes, trade and the environment remain slaves to conspicuous consumption, which has been playing havoc with our planet since the start of the Industrial Revolution.

Assessment

We must create globally sustainable energy alternatives, trade with these resources, innovate infrastructure resilience and educate the global populace on the spectrums of efficiency without hidden political agenda.

Knowledge and innovative thinking are equally required to persuade a sceptical public that free trade is a legitimate path to the post-COVID future of economic, environmental and social recovery.

Industries and foreign markets must anticipate drastic changes at the foundational level of production, trade, consumption and pricing of commodities to accommodate the climate change goals to their full potential.

“If sovereign states, legally bound by FTAs, took away tariffs on products traded in foreign markets but were to charge a fee for the product’s environmental impact, it would defeat the point of an FTA inclusive of environmental provisions because consumers would still be paying more and carbon footprints across various markets would still be on the rise.”

DR. V.S. SESHADRI, Senior Fellow for International Trade

CLIMATE CHANGES –POINT OF NO RETURN?

Are the current heat waves evidence that climate change is speeding up? And how can we turn back the green clock?

Unpredictable and hazardous environmental changes have brought climate change to the top of the international conferences and news agenda. A recent report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) emphasises the urgent need for nations to significantly enhance funding and implementation of measures aimed at assisting vulnerable nations and communities adapt to the escalating impacts of climate change worldwide. As climate-related challenges intensify, proactive action is essential to ensure the resilience and well-being of those most susceptible to the climate storm.

The climate agenda is backed by international agreements such as the Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty on climate change. It was adopted by 196 parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21). The primary objective is to restrict the rise in the global average temperature to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and make every effort to limit it further to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Lately, world leaders have emphasised the urgency of achieving the 1.5°C target before the close of this century.

LIFE IN THE GREENHOUSE

The summer has proven to be a record breaker with soaring temperatures, raging wildfires and rising global

Global warming raises the likelihood of various extreme events and increases the chances of these events occurring in clusters or waves. This pattern enhances the overall impact and severity of heat waves, making them more widespread and prolonged, affecting multiple regions simultaneously.

averages. Aside from the sudden peaks such as China’s Turpan Depression in Xinjiang Death Valley, and America’s Death Valley, temperatures have been dangerously high in places where hundreds of millions live. In July, in Beijing, authorities issued their second red alert for heat within a two-week period. On July 19th, Phoenix, Arizona, experienced its 19th consecutive day with temperatures exceeding 43°C. Italy and several neighbouring countries are also facing scorching conditions.

The impact of heat waves extends beyond the United States, where approximately 100 million people are under heat-advisory notices. Similar heatwaves are currently occurring in various parts of the world.

The Mediterranean region, for instance, is facing comparable challenges, with temperatures exceeding 40°C (104°F) from Madrid to Cairo, leading to power cuts in the latter. In Beijing, a 23-year-old record was surpassed with the 27th consecutive day of maximum temperatures above 35°C on July 18th. Global warming raises the likelihood of various extreme events and in-

Suchitra Padmanabhan is the Policy Research Associate at Synergia Foundation and has Post Graduate Degree in Social Policy & Planning from the London School of Economics

creases the chances of these events occurring in clusters or waves. This pattern enhances the overall impact and severity of heat waves, making them more widespread and prolonged, affecting multiple regions simultaneously.

While experiencing a series of hot days in July might not be unexpected, given the majority of the Earth’s land is in the northern hemisphere, and land warms up faster than water, making northern summers the hottest time of the year globally, the current situation stands out. Typically, the highest temperatures occur later in the season. However, this year’s early onset of extreme heat, its soaring intensity, and its prolonged duration are unparalleled and unprecedented.

The oceans have not been left untouched, either. Starting from March 13th, the sea-surface temperature in low- and mid-latitudes has consistently exceeded the levels observed on the same day in any year since 1979. While these temperatures usually peak during the southern summer due to the abundance of water in the southern hemisphere, they have reached unprecedented record levels during the southern winter. Climate scientists have suggested that this could result from the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING

Increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere lead to greater retention of solar warmth near the Earth’s surface and higher absorption rates by the oceans. Carbon dioxide, the most significant long-lasting greenhouse gas measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, reached 424 parts per million in May, the highest level in over 3 million years. Methane and nitrous oxide, two other long-lasting greenhouse gases, have also reached unprecedented levels not previously encountered by humanity. Because of human activities intensifying the greenhouse effect, the global average temperature has risen by approximately 1.2°C compared to the pre-industrial era. In addition, natural variations such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) add to the warmth.

In addition to the broader global impacts, even a slight shift to the right at the top of a bell curve can lead to significant changes in the tail values. James Hansen, a climate scientist at Columbia University, highlights that the type of summer that would have been considered a once-in-a-century event between the 1950s and 1980s now occurs approximately once every five years. As the likelihood of scorching summers increases worldwide, the probability of multiple regions being affected simultaneously also rises.

Intense heat inflicts damage through various means, including devastating crops and livestock, but its most pressing human health challenge arises in urban areas. The ‘urban heat island effect’ phenomenon intensifies city temperatures due to reduced vegetation, greater sunlight absorption by tarmac, and increased waste heat. Additionally, cities frequently suffer from poor air quality, especially in areas with the most vulnerable

populations. When extreme heat combines with polluted air, it significantly strains vulnerable lungs and hearts, pushing them beyond their limits.

Climate scientists emphasise that human activities, particularly releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere over many decades, are driving global temperature increases. Recent heatwaves in North America and China were found to be 2°C (3.6°F) and 1°C hotter, respectively, due to climate change.

Comparatively, the world has warmed by 1.1°C from the pre-industrial era, before humans started burning fossil fuels. Experts warn that reaching a 2°C temperature rise, a likely scenario if countries do not reduce emissions rapidly enough would lead to such extreme heat events occurring every two to five years.

Research has pointed to the considerable influence of El Niño, a natural climate fluctuation that began in June, leading to warmer temperatures globally as warm waters ascend to the surface in the tropical Pacific Ocean and transfer heat into the air. However, researchers concluded that while El Niño played a role, the main driving force behind the intensified heatwaves was the increased temperatures resulting from burning fossil fuels.

Recent weeks have witnessed numerous climate records being broken, including global average temperatures and sea surface temperatures, particularly in the North Atlantic. Experts regard the speed and timing of these events as “unprecedented” and caution that more records could be shattered in the weeks and months ahead.

LESSONS FROM ACROSS THE GLOBE

In a world besieged by multiple worries, heating up has quickly surfaced as a top concern. To maintain liveability, hot cities are exploring innovative methods to beat the heat.

In the past month, approximately one-third of Americans have lived in areas where the government has issued warnings about extreme heat. These hot cities are situated in the Sunbelt, the country’s southern region, spanning from Los Angeles to Miami. Despite the scorching temperatures, tourists flocked to Death Valley, California, known as the hottest place on Earth, to witness if it would surpass the previous record of 56.7°C (which it did not).

In Florida, researchers express concern over the impact of hot ocean temperatures on coral reefs, fearing bleaching and a potential worsening of the hurricane season.

This year, the North American monsoon, responsible for soaking parts of Arizona and New Mexico during the summer, arrived later than usual. The delay in the cooling rains could be linked to the arrival of El Niño, a warming ocean pattern that influences global weather. It is still too early to determine the precise impact of cli-

mate change on the severity of the heat wave. However, experts note that global warming tends to amplify all normal local weather extremes, pushing them to higher levels.

According to census data, 12 out of the 15 fastest-growing cities in the United States are located in the region most affected by climate change. A study conducted by Redfin, a property platform, reveals that the 50 counties with the highest percentage of homes exposed to extreme-heat risk experienced an average population growth of 4.7% between 2016 and 2020. Contrary to the expectation of people migrating away from climate-affected areas, Americans are instead moving towards these regions, enticed by the prospect of lower taxes and more affordable housing prices compared to expensive coastal metropolitan areas. Among all weather-related disasters, heatwaves claim more lives of Americans than any other.

TURNING BACK THE GREEN CLOCK

International agreements and climate change negotiations have set the global agenda driven by multilateral organisations covering climate commitments and sourcing funding. At the micro level, individual countries and cities have made specific attempts to manage the repercussions of the heated environment on citizens.

Cities have various strategies to mitigate heat and cool down their urban environments. Technical approaches include applying reflective coatings to asphalt surfaces, which helps repel sunlight instead of absorbing it, and using alternative building materials that retain less heat. On the other hand, environmental measures involve planting more trees strategically to provide ample shade and natural cooling. By combining these techniques, cities can work towards creating more comfortable and sustainable living spaces for their residents.

When temperatures soar, immediate actions can make a difference. Setting up cooling stations for homeless individuals, encouraging people to check on elderly neighbours and relatives (as they are particularly vulnerable to heat-related excess deaths, especially women over 80), allowing outdoor workers to operate early in the morning, and putting hospitals on high alert are vital measures to be taken. The appointment of

chief heat officers in American cities and beyond, with authority to coordinate these efforts, is a positive and encouraging trend to effectively address heat-related challenges. Making smart decisions about the built environment is equally important. Choosing the right type of pavement, designing courtyards for passive cooling, and promoting white roofs all contribute to heat reduction. Updating building codes to facilitate these choices and changing regulations to protect workers from midday heat are necessary to ensure a more heat-resilient and liveable urban environment.

Austin, anticipating a significant increase in extremely hot days by the end of the century, has taken proactive steps to address climate resilience. Their action plan, laid out in 2018 and currently being updated, focuses on strengthening emergency response and future-proofing infrastructure. The city coordinates efforts to provide cooling relief during crises, offering access to backup fans and ensuring community facilities with air conditioning are available.

A strategic urban forest canopy has been developed to create cool outdoor spaces. Austin has applied for a USDA grant to plant more trees, recognising the benefits of tree canopy coverage in adapting to rising temperatures. The city’s new resilience plan emphasizes heat mitigation, including research into innovative solutions and securing funding to address disparities between communities.

In San Antonio, a pilot project was undertaken to lower pavement temperatures by applying a reflective paint that reflects the sun’s rays.

While the full impact is yet to be determined, early analysis shows a significant temperature difference on road surfaces. New York City is promoting a “Be-aBuddy” programme to support vulnerable populations during heatwaves and increase the use of cooling centres. Their Cool Roofs program trains volunteers to coat rooftops with a reflective white coating.

Chicago uses a text and email notification system to identify public places with air conditioning for residents, particularly vulnerable populations, and has established a fund to finance commercial green roofs and increase vegetation in heat island areas. To combat urban heat islands and pollution, the city is investing in planting 75,000 trees by 2026.

There is a growing rekindling of interest in traditional Chinese architecture in areas beyond the U.S. In the times preceding air-conditioning, skywells in southern China played a vital role in keeping homes cool. Studies have revealed that temperatures inside these skywells can be significantly lower than the outside, sometimes up to 4.3°C.

Driven by government initiatives promoting low-carbon innovations in the building sector, some architects draw inspiration from skywells and other traditional Chinese architectural elements to enhance cooling in new constructions.

A skywell, known as “tian jing” (天 ) in Mandarin, is a characteristic feature of traditional homes in southern and eastern China. Unlike the spacious courtyards typical of northern Chinese homes, a skywell is smaller and less exposed to the outdoor environment. These skywells come in various sizes and designs, most rectangular and situated at the house’s core. They are either enclosed on four sides by rooms or on three sides with an additional wall. Some larger homes even feature multiple skywells.

Originally intended to cool buildings in a time when air-conditioning did not exist, skywells facilitated natural ventilation. When the wind blew above a skywell house, the breeze entered the indoor space through the opening. As outdoor air is often cooler than indoor air, the incoming breeze created airflows by replacing the warmer indoor air, which then rose and exited through the skywell’s opening. Additionally, a skywell allowed light to enter, improved ventilation, and enabled rainwater harvesting. The “chimney effect” allowed hot air inside the house to rise and escape through the skywell’s opening.

As a transitional space between indoor living and the outdoor environment, the skywell acted as an effective heat buffer, shielding residents from the scorching outside air. The cooling effect of the skywell was most pronounced when there were bodies of water within its enclosure.

Government directives are now pivotal in reintegrating skywells into contemporary buildings. Since 2013, the Chinese central government has advocated for green buildings that conserve resources and emit fewer pollutants throughout their lives. A 2019 government instruction mandated that 70% of buildings completed in 2022 should meet its “green” standard, including specific criteria for building insulation and environmentally-friendly materials. This push for sustainability has rekindled interest in incorporating traditional cooling methods like skywells into modern construction practices.

THE BUSINESS ANGLE

A significant portion of the damage contributing to climate change is attributed to big businesses, which

supply us with the essentials and luxuries of modern life. However, mounting consumer pressure is compelling these corporations to reassess their policies. While some large companies have been caught greenwashing, merely paying lip service to sustainability, many are genuinely committed to enacting change. While consumers can influence these big businesses through their spending choices, analysts believe that the most radical ideas for transformation will come from new and innovative small start-up companies.

Start-ups have the advantage of being more agile and focused on exploring and experimenting with new sustainable ideas. Unlike large public companies, they are not burdened by shareholder demands for immediate profits and can concentrate on developing groundbreaking solutions. Start-up founders often seek to be acquired by larger companies after proving their potential, enabling them to make significant profits when they sell.

As large companies actively seek sustainable solutions, they are keen to acquire start-ups capable of addressing their sustainability challenges in supply chains, waste management, and energy consumption. This has created a thriving market for start-ups in the sustainability space, enabling them to drive the sustainability agenda significantly. Ultimately, the synergy between start-ups and big businesses is poised to foster meaningful change and accelerate the adoption of sustainable practices.

Assessment

If 2023 is indicative of a significant shift towards accelerated warming, then the urgency to address the climate agenda cannot be overstated. By prioritising emissions reduction with genuine dedication, we have the potential to slow down the warming of the Earth within a few decades. If pursued with determination, it may even bring an end to this century, averting further climate crises. The need for decisive action is now more critical than ever to secure a sustainable and habitable future for generations to come.

There are sufficient global examples of attempts being made to manage this sweltering world. It is a combined effort by government regulations, civic action and business leadership, which will make a dent in our efforts to keep the environment sustainable and liveable.

Not only do governments or businesses must combat rising temperatures- but every citizen should also join in the fight. Preparing in advance is essential to tackle heat-related challenges effectively. Identifying where people are most vulnerable is crucial, and doing simple things like planting trees strategically can make a huge difference.

THE CAMBODIAN ONE-HORSE RACE

In a widely discredited election, Cambodia has given way to dynasty politics, sparking fear and distrust.

Cambodia, the infamous killing fields of the brutal Khmer Rouge, finds little mention in global media these days. This is good news because the country has, over the years, adopted democratic norms and has been successfully conducting democratic power transitions through elections.

However, the concern is whether the power elites remain the erstwhile communist cadre that brought such bloodshed to this beautiful country, now in a democratic avatar. More worrying is the regime’s authoritarian nature now taking on the tone of a dynastic rule.

A BLOOD-STREWN HISTORY

Cambodia was once the powerful kingdom of Angkor, home to Angkor Wat temples, the centre of the Khmer Empire, which lasted from 802 to 1431 CE. At its peak, it covered most of what is today Cambodia, Thailand, Laos, and South Vietnam.

The empire gradually shrank and declined until Cambodia became a small Buddhist kingdom, dependent on its neighbours’ goodwill. In 1863, the King of Cambodia, concerned about Thailand’s intentions, requested France to lend protection to the kingdom. Cambodia became a French protectorate and came under French colonial rule until it attained independence from France in 1953.

Under India’s “Act East Policy, India is again looking at friends in South East Asia to balance the Chinese influence. Cambodia would be very high on the list of countries where India must deepen its economic and cultural relations.

In the late 1960s, it was drawn into the Vietnam War and the conflict between the U.S. and communist forces. In 1975, the Communist Khmer Rouge forces overthrew the pro-US government. Under the brutal Khmer Rouge rule, about 1.5 million Cambodians died from overwork, malnutrition, and executions, resulting in lasting inter-generational trauma within families. A Vietnamese invasion ended the totalitarian rule headed by military ruler Pol Pot in 1979.

DEMOCRACY TO AUTOCRACY

A few words about Prime Minister Hun Sen, a former Khmer Rouge cadre who, at the peak of the genocide when the party was purging its own leaders, sought sanctuary in Vietnam. He returned in 1978 as the Cambodian face of the Vietnamese invasion.

He took on the post of foreign minister in 1985 before taking over as the prime minister under the UN Transitional Authority (UNTAC) in 1993. In 1997 he consolidated his position in a military coup, and since then, he has won every subsequent election. Meanwhile, the issues of poverty and corruption continue to be deeply ingrained.

RESEARCH TEAM

In the beginning, the nation’s elections fostered competition and a tolerated opposition. For almost forty years, Hun Sen, aged 70, has held sway over Cambodia. Hun Sen’s approach has grown progressively autocratic, stifling dissent, imprisoning critics, and compelling numerous individuals to seek refuge abroad.

NEITHER FREE NOR FAIR

In the recently finalised election, the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) asserted a near uncontested victory, securing 120 out of 125 seats. Internationally, the credibility of the election has been tarnished. Renowned entities like the UN, various governments, including the U.S., and human rights experts have discredited the process.

Prior to the voting process, Cambodian authorities employed a consistent pattern of intimidation and pressure against political opponents, media outlets, and civil society. The election and results seem like a farce to analysts from across Southeast Asia, said the election, who deem it a “coronation for Hun Sen and his cronies”. Approximately 8.1 million individuals participated in the unopposed election, resulting in an 84% turnout, as re ported by the election commission.

Numerous voters shared images on social media depicting their deliberately invalidated ballots as a form of protest against the election. Prime Minister Hun Sen urged these individu als to publicly admit their actions or potentially confront legal repercussions. The ongoing electoral process contradicts Cambodia’s commitments to human rights, as outlined in Article 25 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), which upholds the Cambodian people’s entitlement to “participate in the conduct of public affairs, either directly or through freely chosen representatives.”

In the approach to the upcoming general election, the government escalated its suppression of political dissent by introducing a series of legislative revisions designed to thwart an election boycott—a strategy endorsed by the principal political opposition.

Proposed changes to four election laws were swiftly ratified and put into effect during the final week of June 2023, less than a month before Election Day. One modification imposes penalties on citizens who abstain from voting, regardless of the rationale, by revoking their political eligibility to run for election if they have not voted in the two preceding elections leading up to the one they seek to contest. Essentially, this enforces a six-year ban on candidacy in commune or general elections.

Furthermore, amendments to the Law on Election of Members of the National Assembly, among the four laws, stipulate fines ranging from five to 20 million riels (approximately US$1,250 - US$5,000) for those who “incite” others not to vote. Recently, the National Election Committee (NEC) issued a statement as-

serting that advocating for the spoiling of ballots also constitutes a form of incitement, warranting fines and disqualification from candidacy. Civil society organisations also face the risk of fines ranging from 10 to 30 million riel (about US$2,500 - US$7,250) for engaging in vaguely defined activities that could potentially “disrupt” the electoral process.

Hun Sen has additionally called for Cambodians residing overseas to return to the country to vote. However, no established mechanism exists for overseas citizens to cast absentee ballots. Consequently, Cambodians currently residing abroad who cannot return and vote will also bear the unjust consequences of these amended laws.

These amendments closely mirror past instances of altering election laws to favour the ruling party. As an example, in the lead-up to the 2018 general election, hurried modifications were made to prohibit political parties from engaging with individuals convicted of criminal offenses. This manoeuvre effectively barred prominent opposition figure Sam Rainsy from participating in the electoral proceedings.

The NEC, tasked with overseeing elections in Cambodia, lacks true independence from the executive branch and is headed by a member of the CPP Central Committee.

Leading up to and following the June 2022 commune elections, the NEC endorsed an obscure electoral process marked by an unprecedented lack of transparency in the vote-counting procedures. The NEC also refrained from taking action against the CPP for its extensive and systematic breaches of electoral rules.

Not only did the NEC disregard the CPP’s habitual intimidation of impartial and opposition-affiliated election observers, but it also actively made unexplained decisions to disqualify and disenfranchise leaders and members of the Candlelight Party. Prior to the 2022 polls, the NEC unjustly removed 150 party members from candidate lists.

Following the 2022 polls, the NEC filed a defamation lawsuit against Son Chhay, the Vice-President of the Candlelight Party, after he accused it of bias and election fraud. In a case overseen by a CPP-controlled court, Chhay was found guilty [Refer to, Increased Attacks on the Political Opposition]. In May 2023, the NEC prohibited the Candlelight Party from participating in the upcoming elections.

The Candlelight Party re-emerged in early 2022 as the primary opposition party following the forced dissolution of the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) by the Supreme Court in 2017. The Candlelight Party provided a ray of hope for a competitive election ahead of the June 2022 commune elections and the July 2023 general election. Before the 2022 elections, the party succeeded in rapidly registering more than 20,000 candidates in nearly all the country’s localities

- a feat matched only by the CPP. The main opposition party was disqualified – again. In the end, 18 political parties were granted permission to participate in this year’s elections. However, as demonstrated by the prior election in 2018, which was deemed illegitimate and involved 20 competing parties, this situation fails to truly embody authentic political diversity within Cambodia.

The majority of the other participating political parties are essentially proxies of the CPP or have been assimilated by the CPP over time. These parties do not offer a substantial electoral alternative and are permitted to function primarily because they do not present a significant challenge to the dominance of the CPP.

POLITICS OF FEAR

The approach to the upcoming general election has been characterised by heightened government suppression, escalating violence, and harsh rhetoric directed at political adversaries. In January 2023, Hun Sen delivered a speech in which he warned his political rivals to brace for physical attacks, asserting his ability to mobilise CPP members for protests and confron tations. Through a Facebook post, he presented the opposition with a stark choice between legal repercussions and physical aggression, stating, “You have two options: the path of the law or that of force. Which one will you select?”

Throughout the preceding year, the gov ernment has methodically focused on the lead ership of the Candlelight Party, subjecting them to unfounded legal actions and criminal prosecutions as a blatant tactic to dissuade their participation in the imminent election. In October 2022, another Vice-President of the Candlelight Party and former CNRP legislator, Son Chhay, was found guilty of defamation due to a complaint lodged by the NEC, resulting in a fine of nine million riel (equivalent to around US$2,190). In January 2023, Kong Korm, the top advisor of the Candlelight Party, was compelled to surrender property after Hun Sen arbitrarily ordered its seizure during a public speech.

These assaults on the leadership, members, and backers of the Candlelight Party are a part of the government’s sustained campaign of harassment against its political adversaries. Between November 2020 and December 2022, numerous former CNRP leaders and supporters endured collective show trials that led to convictions. A significant number of these verdicts were founded solely on political speeches or social media posts advocating for democratic reforms and endorsing non-CPP politicians.

Notably, in March 2023, the former President of the CNRP, Kem Sokha, was found guilty on charges of “treason” driven by political motives, resulting in a 27-year prison sentence. He has been placed under house arrest pending the completion of his appeals. While confined to his residence, Sokha is prohibited from communicating with his legal representatives and

anyone else beyond his immediate family without court authorisation. The CPP’s firm control over the nation has resulted in the suppression of independent media and the erosion of freedom of expression. A notable illustration of this occurred on February 9, 2023, when both Hun Sen and his son, Hun Manet, expressed dissatisfaction with an article published by the bilingual independent news source Voice of Democracy (VOD).

In response, Hun Sen issued a directive to revoke the media operating license of the Cambodian Centre for Independent Media (CCIM), the parent organisation of VOD. This directive effectively led to the closure of VOD, which was the sole remaining daily independent news outlet in Cambodia. Hun Sen’s actions blatantly disregarded the established laws within Cambodia for addressing alleged inaccuracies in media reports.

Marking his 38th year in office, Hun Sen has outlasted other enduring strongmen, including the late Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe and the late Muammar Gaddafi of Libya, positioning him among the world’s most enduring political leaders still alive. He has cultivated personal allegiance within the country’s armed forces while witnessing the growth of wealth and influence for his family, associates, and supporters. Accompanied by strategic legislation that has silenced dissent and stifled significant political rivals, he has sustained his dominance. Consistent economic advancement has further enabled him to project himself as Cambodia’s enduring leader.

The cornerstone of Hun Sen’s authority lies in his establishment of the national security forces, meticulously synchronised with his personal and political interests.

DYNASTY POLITICS

Starting from December 2021, Hun Sen, has openly expressed his desire to pave the way for his son, General Hun Manet, to assume leadership in due course. As the Prime Minister directed his attention towards ensuring a smooth succession, an alarming increase in human rights abuses and violations related to elections thwarted the brief resurgence of a potent opposition political party last year. These developments have set the stage for an election that lacks legitimacy.

While some see the power handover from father to son as possibly heralding a new start in Cambodia, others doubt that Hun Sen is ready to give up control entirely. At 45, Hun Manet seized an opportunity for public validation through the recent election, which was anticipated to pave the way for his assumption of leadership during the five-year term. During this period, his father, Hun Sen, is set to maintain his sway as the CPP chief.

Formerly the Royal Cambodian Army commander, Hun Manet’s ascendancy to leadership has been a longstanding trajectory, aligning with a dynastic succession

plan articulated by Hun Sen over several years. Hun Manet’s incoming cabinet is poised to feature a younger cadre. Many associates who ascended with Hun Sen during the Khmer Rouge revolution and the 1970s-80s civil war have stepped down, often passing their roles to their own offspring.

Nonetheless, Hun Sen will continue to helm the ruling Cambodian People’s Party, a position that political experts assert affords him ultimate dominion. Having quashed significant opposition within Cambodia recently, Hun Manet is expected to confront minimal external challenges from beyond the ruling party. Yet, the intricate network of alliances fostered by his father with influential and affluent families presents a formidable task.

Hun Sen strategically doled out political and business advantages to potential rivals, ensuring their contentment and fostering economic growth. However, this approach also resulted in pervasive corruption and inequality in Cambodia, potentially posing future challenges for his relatively inexperienced son. In comparison to his father, there is speculation that Hun Manet, educated at the U.S. military academy West Point and the University of Bristol, could steer a less authoritarian regime and exhibit greater receptivity to Western appeals for human rights. Nevertheless, analysts emphasise a lack of evidence suggesting he will be more open. Hun Sen has also underscored his intent to wield substantial influence over the country’s governance for at least another decade.

REGIONAL GEOPOLITICS

Major world powers like the U.S. have condemned the elections as neither free nor fair. However, sanctions and condemnation have little effect on the regime, given that China continues to back it with massive economic aid and diplomatic support.

China continues to be Cambodia’s largest foreign investor. A month before the elections, Hun Sen announced another infrastructure project (another expressway) funded by China. The expressways could form a part of the larger network of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. China’s economic support offers legitimacy to the regime in the eyes of the general public, making Hun Sen highly reliant on China to deliver signs of economic progress.

However, the growing role of Chinese finance in Cambodia’s development has led to concerns that Cambodia has taken on impossibly high debt, making it beholden to Beijing. For China, Hun Sen’s victory and his unshakeable hold over the Cambodian government is welcome, given his close relations with China. Japan, another regional heavyweight, is also concerned about China’s growing influence across Southeast Asia. Tokyo is keen to counter the rapidly growing Chinese investment and political clout in Cambodia. It is looking to increase its presence in the country through grants, loans, trade, investment, and diplomatic relations. Between upholding democratic principles and maintaining eco-

nomic power in Cambodia, Japan may favour the latter, even if it means backing an authoritarian regime. Hun Sen is also known to be on good terms with Vietnam, having come to power in the 1980s with Vietnamese support. Due to the troubled history between the two countries and longstanding border disputes, relations with neighbouring Vietnam are a contentious issue in Cambodia.

The CPP’s lenient approach towards illegal Vietnamese immigrants in Cambodia has also been a source of controversy. If Hun Manet becomes prime minister and follows his father’s footsteps, Cambodia and Vietnam are likely to remain on good terms. On the other hand, the CPP may choose to distance itself from Vietnam as a part of a new strategy to garner more popular support.

THE INDIAN ANGLE

India and Cambodia ties can be traced as far back as the 12th Century when the famous Angkor Wat was constructed (All of the original religious motifs are derived from Hinduism, with the temple dedicated to the gods Shiva, Brahma, and Vishnu). Indian experts assisted in its rehabilitation. Along with the late King Norodom Sihanouk and Jawaharlal Nehru, both nations were architects of the NAM. When the genocidal Pol Pot regime was in power between 1975 and 1981, India was its bitter critic. After its fall, India became the first country to recognise Kampuchea under Heng Samrin. When the UNTAC was established in 1987, India was the leading contributor of UN peacekeepers and military deminers.

Under India’s “Act East Policy, India is again looking at friends in South East Asia to balance the Chinese influence. Cambodia would be very high on the list of countries where India must deepen its economic and cultural relations.

Assessment

The CPP’s landslide victory in Cambodia evidences the stronghold that Hun Sen has with virtually no opposition. Obviously, over the years, any traces of alternate power centres in the country have been wiped out. This does not bode well for the country’s democratic future.

As General Hun Manet is set to become the new prime minister, it remains to be seen how the change in leadership will play out. However, Hun Sen is only 70 years old and has decades ahead to play the role of the real power behind the throne!

China continues to welcome Hun Sen’s pro-China regime, while Japan is keen on countering China’s influence in Cambodia. The CPP may choose to continue its pro-Vietnam policy or change its policy to revamp its image. As regards India, Cambodia and Vietnam are ideal places to further its “Act East” policy.