Insights January Edition 2024

LOOKING BEYOND THE CURVE

JANUARY EDITION 2024 | MONTHLY EDITION

SYNERGIA

MEDIA ENABLED

TOMORROW’S TAPESTRY: A FUTURISTIC ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY, SECURITY, AND DIPLOMACY LANDSCAPE

EXCLUSIVES GLOBAL FUTURES GLOBAL FUTURE 2035 SECURITY CHALLENGES Page - 03 Page - 07

GEOECONOMIC FUTURES 2035 Page - 19

A FUTURE - READY BANGALORE: A TECH HUB THEN AND NOW TECH WARFARE Page - 37 Page - 48

INSIGHTS is a strategic affairs, foreign policy, science and technology magazine that provides nonpartisan analysis of contemporary issues based on real-time information.

To subscribe, sambratha@synergiagroup.in ; +91 80 4197 1000 https://www.synergiafoundation.org

EDITORIAL Dear Reader: Greetings from the Synergia Foundation!

This issue is dominated by two crucial issues that hold the key to India’s future as a regional power and an economic powerhouse that will act as an engine of growth to the global economy.

Our spotlight story looks at Global Futures 2035 with special emphasis on India. It includes geopolitical contestations, economy, technological challenges and sustainable energy sources directly impacting climate change and our delicately poised environment. We have views on the subject from eminent personalities like the CDS of the Indian Armed Forces, former Ambassador PS Raghavan, Dr Andrey Kortunov, and Mr Nobuo Tanaka, among many more, both Indian and foreigners.

The second topic that has merited extensive coverage in this issue is “Aligning Technology to Future Conflicts.” We have been able to muster the opinions and insights from an array of subject matter experts from the professional military world, both from India and abroad, Indian and foreign subject matter experts and Indian tech companies.

In this segment, we also list the advantages that our home town, Bengaluru, offers to all those wishing to establish high-tech businesses in this lovely city.

Major General Chris Smith, Deputy Commanding General (Strategy and Plans, U.S. Army Pacific Command, offers an interesting perspective on the technological impact on present and future military operations.

All our issues give weightage to the geopolitics and geoeconomics of India’s immediate and extended neighbourhood, and this issue is no exception. In this issue, we have two interesting thought-provoking articles on the Indian Ocean.

Mr. Krishnan Srinivasan, Former Foreign Secretary, Government of India writes from his vast experience on the thorny subject of conflict resolution.

2024 is being hailed as The Year of Polls. With polls in Bangladesh and the Maldives having been conducted with controversial connotations, an even wider canvas of elections will unroll as the year progresses. Of course, all eyes will be on the Indian and U.S. Presidential elections. It is going to be an interesting year to watch!

We hope our esteemed readers will continue supporting us as we strive to further evidence-based research on strategic issues with global resonance.

Sincerely yours

Maj. Gen. Ajay Sah Chief Information Officer

SCAN THE QR CODE TO SUBSCRIBE

SCAN FOR FEEDBACK

FEATURED ` SPOTLIGHT STORY : GLOBAL FUTURES 2035

SECURITY

AI-ENHANCED MILITARY COMMUNICATION Successful armed forces tend to be those that better overcome the new problems created by technological advances.

PAGE 31 TECHNOLOGY

GLOBAL FUTURES 2035

The year 2035 beckons a future defined by unprecedented challenges and opportunities, urging a collective examination of the forces shaping our global landscape.

PAGE 03 SPOTLIGHT STORY

ALIGNING TECHNOLOGIES TO FUTURE CONFLICTS “Foresight is not Predicting the Future but Minimising the Surprises.”

PAGE 35

A FUTURE - READY TECH WARFARE “We should be able to see first and see the farthest, reach first and reach the farthest, and hit first and hit the hardest.”

PAGE 37

PROTECTING INDIAN CYBERSPACE Cyberspace today is a singular entity connecting all elements of comprehensive national power.

PAGE 44

GLOBAL FUTURE SECURITY CHALLENGES

“In the next 12 years, that is till 2035, we may find more geopolitical surprises packed in a 12-year period than what we have witnessed, say, in the past 120 years.,” Gen Anil Chauhan PAGE 07

GLOBAL ALTERNATE FUTURES

There is no sign of an emerging new order; the best we can do is manage conflicting trends and forces and pull back before they become open and unmanageable. PAGE 10

ENERGY SUSTAINABILITY One country cannot achieve energy security by itself. Collective security in the military sense is also true in the energy sector, as well as sustainability. PAGE 13

BANGALORE: A TECH HUB THEN AND NOW

From India’s IT capital to a globally leading technology hub, India’s Silicon Valley has evolved from an outsourcing hub to a vibrant ecosystem for tech ventures.

PAGE 48 HEALTH CARE

TECHNOLOGY FUTURES

GEOECONOMIC FUTURES 2035

Seven domains will be relevantartificial intelligence, mobile communication (6G), blockchain, quantum, metaverse, synthetic biology and aerospace.

The emergence of the global south is hugely welcome for the countries themselves, of course, but also for the world.

PAGE 19

PAGE 16 INDIA’S NEIGHBOURHOOD

SECURITY

US-CHINA AND THE FUTURE OF IOR

GLOBAL CONFLICT RESOLUTION

The San Francisco summit is seen as a lifeline thrown to China by the U.S.

“The most inconvenient truth is that from Bogota to Mindanao, the history of conflict resolution is littered with failures.”

PAGE 28

PAGE 25

A SERIOUS THREAT?

As COVID cases rise in India, questions are being asked how real is the threat?

PAGE 51 ANALYSIS

2024 - GLOBAL POLLS YEAR With the year witnessing a host of elections, the impact of these elections on geopolitics is being hotly debated worldwide.

PAGE 53

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

GLOBAL FUTURES 2035 “The old is dying, and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum, a great variety of morbid symptoms appear,” Antonio Gramsci.

This article is based on the round table curated

by Major General U Suresh on Global Futures 2035 at 9th Synergia Conclave 2023.

T

he year 2035 beckons a future defined by unprecedented challenges and opportunities, urging a collective examination of the forces shaping our global landscape. A comprehensive understanding of the prevailing dynamics and what lies beyond the horizon is paramount for policymakers, businesses and citizens alike.

However, while outlining the key elements that will mould the contours of the future, we should avoid falling into the cognitive trap of focusing too much on high-profile events.

More important is the need to concentrate on longterm trends and interdependencies. It is crucial to recognise the interconnectivity of various domains of geopolitics, security, economy, energy, environment and technology and adopt a cross-domain cum reductionist approach to scan the horizon.

In this era of rapid transformation, a multitude of factors will converge to influence the trajectory of international affairs. From geopolitical shifts to technological breakthroughs, the world is poised at a crossroads.

Increasing geopolitical polarisation, power shifts, realignments based on national interests, widening conflicts, unequal economic growth, growing centrality of digital technologies and a looming environmental crisis have been the dominant trends over the last few years.

Warfare of the future will continue to address both ends of the spectrum of conflict, as is evident from the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas confrontations. Conflicts are going to be characterised by grey zone, hybrid, information and technological warfare with an increasing focus on cyber, space and cognitive domains.

GEOPOLITICAL TRENDS Today, the world is at a stage of transition between an existing world order in decline and the emergence of a new world order. As Antonio Gramsci had averred, the said ‘morbid symptoms of the interregnum’ seem to be playing out around us today making forecasting and understanding of the future even more complex.

There has been a pronounced power shift from the Global North to the Global South and from developed economies to emerging economies. There also seems to be an emerging trend of shift in power from state entities to Big Tech Corporations.

While globalisation, in addition to being securitised, is fragmented and multilateralism is on the wane, there is also a strong global sentiment for the revival and strengthening of these two pillars. International organisations and institutions have been slow in adapting and transforming to meet the emerging global and regional

GLOBAL FUTURES 2035

challenges, leading to questions on their relevance and a shift towards alternate groupings.

Countries are prioritising national interests over values and are focussing on preserving their strategic autonomy to retain the flexibility to make policy decisions in their national interest. The resultant shifts in issue-based cooperative mechanisms driven by evolving geopolitical interests and regional dynamics are increasingly becoming the norm.

SECURITY TRENDS Warfare of the future will continue to address both ends of the spectrum of conflict, as is evident from the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas confrontations. Conflicts are going to be characterised by grey zone, hybrid, information and technological warfare with an increasing focus on cyber, space and cognitive domains.

While conflicts along traditional fault lines cannot be ruled out, the increasing competition for influence in the Indo-Pacific region makes it the potential flash point of the future. India will find itself in the centre of all such possible threat scenarios.

TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS The relentless march of technology in the domains of Artificial Intelligence (AI), quantum computing, blockchain technology, metaverse, synthetic biology and aerospace will usher in a new era. Strategic competition in the development and application of AI and quantum computing, ethical and geopolitical implications of rapid advancements in biotechnology, the politics of data governance and control impacting national sovereignty and global debates on privacy and data protection are some of the dominant narratives. In fact, the new ‘cold war’ tensions are ranged around the intensifying race between global powers to achieve technological superiority. History is witness to the fact that technological

04

supremacy is the key to economic and geopolitical global primacy. Those who become stragglers in this race can never hope to sit at the global high table.

ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION The global economy will continue to be a crucial driver, with nations closely intertwined through trade, investment, and financial systems. Economic dynamics will be characterised by a delicate balance between interdependence and nationalist impulses. Global supply chains will face disruptions, prompting a re-evaluation of resilience strategies.

With all countries prioritising economic growth as their core national interest, the economic growth differential between countries, especially between the USA, China and some of the emerging economies, will be a decisive factor in the global power shifts. The ascendancy of the digital economy will not only reshape markets but also redefine economic power structures.

ENERGY TRANSITION In view of the growing global realisation of the existential environmental threat posed by fossil fuels, the transition to renewable energy sources is a given.

This will challenge traditional energy geopolitics and nations will vie for control over strategic resources, vital for the production of renewable technologies. Nations like China that have taken the lead in battery technology will enjoy the advantages of a first responder.

Simultaneously, ensuring a smooth transition without adversely impacting the economic growth of countries will be critical for stability in the short and mid-term.

This is especially true for emerging economies like India, where an energy transformation would require an immense amount of investment far beyond its own national coffers.

GLOBAL FUTURES 2035

A FEW CONTINUITIES Some continuities in global trends are clearly established.

The first is a Demographic Shift. Population dynamics, including ageing populations in some regions and youth bulges in others, will influence economic productivity, social stability, resource availability and migration patterns, contributing to geopolitical shifts. We are already seeing this as a record number of economic migrants assail the walls of the U.S. and Europe in their desperate quest for a better life.

The second and more important is Climate Change, which is fast turning into a reality that is hard to push back. The consequences of climate change persist, with rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and resource scarcity becoming more pronounced.

These environmental challenges will amplify existing geopolitical tensions or force the world to unite to meet the existential threats.

KEY DRIVERS OF GLOBAL CHANGE The future is going to be largely driven by the global quest for power, fear of common threats and the realisation of the potential of technological innovations.

Having studied the cross-domain relationships and clubbed together the interrelated trends, the distilled key drivers of change that will shape the future in 2035 could be as under: • Diffusion of Power: There is clearly an irreversible trend of increasing diffusion of power, enabled by a combination of demographic dynamics, economic growth differential and globalisation. The future is going to be decided by how the West responds to the loss of power and how the emerging powers assume and execute global responsibility. This could establish a road map to transition from a unipolar to bipolar to a multipolar world order. If we go back to first principles, it is going to be about the tension between decentralisation of the emerging order and recentralisation of the old order and how much the global South will be incorporated as a partner in global decision making.

• Global Approach to Challenges: There is a growing realisation for a holistic global approach to address the existential threats of climate change, widening conflicts, technology disruptions, diseases and financial crises. The global consensus in addressing environmental degradation and preventing conflict escalation has been evident in the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts also, although the jury is still out on how robust and successful it has been. The future is going to see intense contestation in three critical areas: gaining influence in the Indo Pacific, leveraging resources for alternate energy and in the domain of technology.

• Tech Innovations: The relentless pace, digital interconnectedness, convergence of technological developments and increasing centrality of technology as a

05

measure of power are changing geopolitical dynamics.

Technological innovation is increasingly being seen as the panacea to most of the world’s challenges because it has the potential to transcend the space and time constraints that circumscribe the future. The global ‘will’ to harness this force-multiplier constructively and collectively rather than using it to compete against each other will, in many ways, decide our future trajectory.

FEW ALTERNATE PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS Based on the key drivers of change, the following are the possible global scenarios of the future: • The Eagle Soars Again: This scenario envisages a return to the unipolar world with the resurgence of the USA along with its democratic allies and a decline of China and Russia. This is characterised by an economic revival and explosion of technological innovations in these conducive open societies of the USA, Europe and its democratic allies.

Simultaneously, China faces overwhelming headwinds due to its economic decline post the pandemic and the resultant breach of social contract with its people, leading to social unrest and political disunity. It also leads to inconsistency and aggressiveness in its relationship with other countries. Russia is drained out by the stalemate of the Ukraine war and the consequent political instability, especially if President Putin departs from the scene.

• Technological Cold War: A scenario where the world moves towards a bipolar contestation in which a technological Cold War takes centre stage, with major powers engaging in intense competition for dominance in emerging technologies. This could lead to the fragmentation of the global technological landscape, posing challenges to cooperation and standardisation.

Simultaneously, the military jostling for power in the Indo-Pacific intensifies, sparking fears of a flashpoint.

• The Great Divide: This scenario envisages the rapid rise of China and Russia while the USA is slowed down by its internal politics and “American First” mentality. This preoccupation reduces its focus towards world affairs, facilitating the creation of an alternate economic and technological ecosystem by China through its BRI, GSI, GDI, GCI and Standards 2035 initiatives. China strengthens its hold over the Indo-Pacific region by integrating Taiwan and leveraging its economic heft. The world is segregated into two silos with impermeable ecosystems leading to a fragmented approach to addressing the common threats.

• Multipolar Equilibrium: In this scenario, power is distributed among multiple major players, including the Global South, and multilateralism takes centre stage. This could foster a more balanced and collaborative international system, albeit with its own set of challenges in managing diverse interests. It would also envision a renaissance in global governance, marked by effective international cooperation to address shared challenges.

GLOBAL FUTURES 2035

• United Response to Crisis: This depicts a world that, after having faced a grave existential environmental crisis, discards its differences and comes together to face common challenges and threats. This would need transformation to more representative global and regional institutions, a cooperative approach in leveraging technological innovations, ensuring equitable economic growth and focussing on sustainable development. It sounds Utopian, but it remains a possibility.

CONCLUSION In navigating the uncertainties of Global Futures 2035, stakeholders must remain vigilant, adaptive and cooperative. The outlined key drivers and alternate scenarios provide a framework for anticipating and responding to the multifaceted challenges that lie ahead.

By embracing a holistic approach to global dynamics, we can collectively strive for a future that is resilient, equitable, and forward-looking.

SYNERGIA RECOMMENDATIONS • India’s core strategy will address the common elements of all scenarios, its basic strategy will be aligned to the preferred scenario and its contingency strategy needs to address the other alternate scenarios.

• From amongst the array of possible futures it is quite clear that the most preferred scenario for India is ‘United Response to Crisis’. We need to look at how we can back cast this scenario and take steps towards achieving the preferred scenario, while also monitoring global shift towards any of the other alternate scenarios to facilitate agility in adopting the relevant contingency strategy.

• The world order is in the process of transition and the future, in many ways, will depend on the path

06

the world charts out for itself today. It is also quite evident that Asia and the Global South will spearhead the changes of tomorrow. It is therefore important for India to increase its focus on building relationships in Asia, improving connectivity & trust in its neighbourhood and championing the cause of the Global South.

• In this rapidly transforming world the key to our success is going to be ‘Diplomatic Agility and Internal Resilience’. In the short term we need to continue to focus on our economic development and national interests with a view to building our ‘National Power’. We need to leverage opportunities through a flexible foreign policy for which we need to preserve an optimal amount of strategic autonomy.

• India’s macroeconomic success is going to depend on its ability to change its traditional uneven growth into a high and stable one, its ability to leverage its window of demographic dividend and its ability to ensure equitable growth for its population. To have the required gravitas to be at the high table, it will need to have a sustained GDP growth rate of above 6.5% till 2035 and also have to find innovative ways to leapfrog over conventionally established models of economic growth. We also need to focus on health, education, skill development and employment generation for the population. This tailor-made approach to sustainable economic development that India follows could also provide the guardrails for the trajectory of the Global South.

• In view of the key role of technology, India needs to craft a National Technology Strategy that identifies technological gaps to be addressed indigenously and those that need foreign collaboration. It is also mandatory to synergise the efforts of academia, R& D organisations, users and manufacturers through greater integration and information sharing.

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

GLOBAL FUTURE SECURITY CHALLENGES

“In the next 12 years, that is till 2035, we may find more geopolitical surprises packed in a 12-year period than what we have witnessed, say, in the past 120 years.,” Gen Anil Chauhan This article is based on the talk delivered by Gen Anil Chauhan, Chief of the Defence Staff, India, during the 9th Synergia Conclave.

T

rying to know what the future holds has been one of the oldest obsessions of the human mind. Most of us have grown up reading H.G. Wells, Julius Verne, and Aldous Huxley. Some writings about the future, like nuclear weapons, aircraft, tanks, and submarines, have come true, while others, like the Martian invasion or time machine, have not. Clearly, predicting the future accurately is not easy.

Increased tension and rising uncertainties have forced nations to review national security strategies. The trend is evident and uniform from Europe to Asia.

The global supply chains that were to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are under strain. Food, fertiliser, energy, medical equipment, and technologies like semiconductors, rare earth and critical metals are all in shortage.

In India, Vedic astrology, to a large extent, was driven by the motivation to visualise or predict the future; the future is motivated by change. We all have to adapt to change and adopt it, lest we are subject to what another futurologist, Alvin Toffler, prophesied as Future Shocks.

Climate change is another area where issues like rise in global temperature, extreme weather, rise in sea levels, and melting of polar ice caps may induce changes in cropping patterns, leading to food and water scarcity.

Over the past few years, change has gathered exponential momentum; it is increasing in geometric proportions. It is outpacing the present and the past to prematurely bring the future to our doorsteps. Some aspects of the future are easy to forecast based on studying past data, examining existing patterns and scientific modelling.

Advances in technology and economic growth also, by and large, follow a linear progression. Both have the potential to alter existing power equations. Interstate relations are difficult to predict. They may not follow a linear progression and are influenced by unforeseen events, which we normally sometimes call as Wild Cards.

Demographics is one such area where the ageing of populations in developed countries and imbalance in population growth will lead to shifts in economic activity, migration and urbanisation. All these factors will contribute to inter and intrastate tensions in the future.

FUTURE SECURITY CHALLENGES Two things will drive future security challenges.

Firstly, the trajectory of the ongoing unprecedented change in global geopolitics. And secondly, technology

GLOBAL FUTURE SECURITY CHALLENGES

08

‘‘Don’t worry, our security system is impeccable.”

that is changing the nature and character of conflict.

Changes induced by geopolitics, geopolitical development or those ushered in by technology have two things in common. Both induce behavioural changes; geopolitics in the behaviour of nation states whereas technology affects social behaviour commencing at the individual level.

As the name suggests, world order is designed to maintain global peace. However, geopolitical competition may induce tension and conflict. Geopolitics and conflict have more than a common causal connection.

The interplay of geography, political power and strategic considerations interact to shape the behaviour of nation-states. Geopolitical events also have the potential to shape national ideologies and influence their ideological narratives. Geopolitical events also affect geoeconomics. In fact, the current flux in the global geo-economic order can be attributed directly to the volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous (VUCA) environment, ushered by what can be called a global disorder. Old rules and maxims of diplomacy are fading away. New ones are emerging. Events are unfolding at a speed and pace that exceeds decision-makers’ ability to react effectively.

To visualise Global Futures 2035, one can take help of the current trends to extrapolate the future with the hope that some of these will act as a reference point. A multipolar global order with polycentric and polyconic competition and cooperation will likely emerge. It will induce stability as the new poles can balance out each other. This may, however, encourage low-intensity conflict and proxy wars at the bottom of the pyramid.

THE FACE OF MILITARY CONFLICTS Nation-states find security and comfort in newer alliances and partnerships. They will be subjected to frequent realignments to meet the real or perceived challenges. The new redistribution of power has made the world flatter. It has increased the propensity of big

powers to take risks. And unlike the past, dominant powers do not hesitate to put their boots on the ground.

There is an increasing propensity amongst nations to enter into conflicts to protect perceived national interests. However, in most cases, most big powers have entered into conflicts without a clear end state or an exit strategy. Afghanistan, Iran, and Ukraine are examples of it.

A prolonged simmering conflict with spikes of violence is another trend; Gaza is a clear example. The U.S. cannot simultaneously meet the Indo-Pacific, Europe and Asia commitments. It accordingly has shifted its focus from what they called a global war on terror (GWOT) conducted in the Middle East and Afghanistan towards the Indo-Pacific, which they call a grey zone conflict.

This trend will continue and is irreversible. There is also a growing perception that interstate wars are a thing of the past and have been replaced by intrastate conflicts and civil wars. This has been proved wrong.

Interstate conflicts occur due to existing but latent disputes. Israel-Hamas, Armenian-Azerbaijan, and Russia-Ukraine are only examples of it. It is, hence, important to manage differences and resolve disputes. The Israel-Hamas conflict has the potential to polarise the world. It may usher in new geopolitical alignments. The Russian-Ukraine conflict is about to enter its third year.

The wars in Europe and the Middle East have fuelled fresh tensions in the globe; it has accentuated levels of uncertainty even amongst nations that are not directly affected by this conflict.

REVIEWING STRATEGIES

NATIONAL

SECURITY

Increased tension and rising uncertainties have forced nations to review national security strategies.

The trend is evident and uniform from Europe to Asia.

The global supply chains that were to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are under strain.

Food, fertiliser, energy, medical equipment, and tech-

GLOBAL FUTURE SECURITY CHALLENGES

nologies like semiconductors, rare earth and critical metals are all in shortage.

There is also a new demand for military equipment, from ordinary ammunition to high-end systems. The current defence ecosystem is not geared to meet the surge in demands and supplies. This was evident in the recently concluded meeting of the defence and foreign ministers of the European Union in Brussels. Further, the challenges to national security may not result from interstate competition or uncertainty only.

09

Advancements in technology are introducing a new revolution in military affairs. A revolution in military affairs occurs when technology is introduced in large numbers. It forces a change in tactics and concomitantly changes the organisation to support that technology and the new tactics.

The world could be on the cusp of the next RMA, called Convergence Warfare. It will convert the first RMA (Manoeuvre Warfare) and the second RMA (Network Centric Warfare) into the current one.

Pandemics, biological threats, cyber threats, transnational terrorism and nuclear threats will continue to bedevil security planners. The pace of geopolitical events is outpacing decision-making abilities. In the next 12 years, that is till 2035, we may find more geopolitical surprises packed in a 12-year period than we have witnessed in the past 120 years.

It will integrate traditional domains of warfare with emerging domains like cyber and space. New technologies will converge to make the battle space more automated and autonomous, whereas battle space and time will expand and converge simultaneously.

TECHNOLOGY DRIVES CHANGE

The Indian Armed Forces will have to operate in an environment rapidly being shaped and reshaped by the turn of geopolitical events and technological advancements. This will require flexibility in the organisational structures of the military as well as in its mindsets. India should be able to usher the third RMA along with other nations to remain ahead or at par with this transformative curve.

In this tapestry of time, technology emerges as the weaver of our shared future, intricately shaping the landscape of human existence. The seeds of technological disruption show fields of possibility, birthing new industries and transforming the very fabric of our economic reality. Unsurprisingly, technology will also play a dominant role in shaping global futures.

The nexus of communication technologies has dissolved barriers and distance, fostering a global village where ideas traverse across continents in an instant. Our technological endeavours promise a future where healthcare is personalised, education democratised, and renewable energy sources sustain our planet. Technological advancements are providing nation-states with new options to secure themselves.

At the same time, it is also ushering in new ways of combat. Hypersonic missiles, subsonic drones and higher accuracy have increased the lethality, complexity of detection, and engagement efficacy. Multi-domain sensors and communications have provided improved battlefield transparency.

The virtual domains of cyber and space uncover the lethal potential of kinetic and non-kinetic options and are causing an overarching effect on the physical domains.

Information is being weaponised through targeting of the cognitive domain. Technology is also emerging as a new currency of power. Technology denial regimes existed in the past, but now, we are witnessing a race to retain a technological edge. Technology provides the cutting-edge during combat and decides the outcome of most conflicts. Technology introduces new ways to retain military edge over adversaries during such conflicts.

THE INDIAN PERSPECTIVE

This will require changes ranging from organisational, structural, doctrinal, and conceptual to behavioural and cultural.

The organisational structures must be capable of multi-domain operations.

They must be capable of responding seamlessly in the continuum of crisis, confrontation, conflict and combat.

They must be structured for integrated rapid response through a correct balance between contact, non-contact, kinetic, and non-kinetic options. They must be flexible and adaptive enough to absorb and harness niche, emerging and disruptive technologies.

There is a term that is used in management parlance: creative destruction. It’s like an oxymoron. It means to create something new; one has to destroy the old. The destruction or discard has to be done in a manner that is creative and helps in the adoption of new processes and technologies.

This is the type of change that will take place in the near future in the Indian Armed Forces. India is also in the Amrit Kal of its nationhood, and the path it takes today will decide where it will be in 2035 and beyond.

As The Samyutta Nikaya states, “According to the seed that’s sown, So is the fruit you reap there from, Doer of good will gather good, Doer of evil, evil reaps, Down is the seed and thou shalt taste The fruit thereof.” The global events need to be viewed through this law-based on cause and effect.

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

GLOBAL ALTERNATE FUTURES

There is no sign of an emerging new order; the best we can do is manage conflicting trends and forces and pull back before they become open and unmanageable.

This article is based on the talk delivered by Amb PS Raghavan, Chairman, NSAB, India, during the 9th Synergia Conclave.

T

he term global geopolitics is a contradiction. A century ago, the geographer Sir Halford John Mackinder and naval strategist Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan drew attention to the importance of geography in how nations behave, in how nations see the world and what they do with the world.

In its broadest sense, geography actually includes not only the physical landscape but also climate, demographics and, in many ways, natural resources.

This shapes the historical experiences of countries and their cultural perspective. Therefore, it shifts their strategic ambitions and their responses to external developments.

It makes sense to talk about South Asia’s and West Asia’s geopolitics, not global geopolitics.

Global geopolitics became fashionable because much of IR theory was developed in the West and, therefore, is from a Western perspective of geopolitics. This is not a trivial quibble because it is needed today to explain the behaviour of nations to the developments around them; not recognizing this is what causes strategists, media, and sometimes even governments to misunderstand and misrepresent the behaviour of nations.

The world cannot afford a war of any kind or any catastrophic or cataclysmic event to impose a new order. But it needs eventually to move towards an order that addresses an attitude of zero-sum.

CHANGING GEOPOLITICAL PANORAMA In the post-Cold War period, globalization and technology have actually enabled countries to leapfrog stages of development and to get to a state where they believe that they have sufficient political clout, economic strength and influence in their neighbourhood, including military strength.

Countries wish to leverage this capacity to accommodate their national interests and aspirations in the international order. This is being manifested in a number of events occurring all around the globe and was visible in the responses to the war in Ukraine and now in the Middle East.

The idea is to privilege their interests over what would be expected of them from the great powers. Today, in the behaviour of nations, interests score over values.

Many countries worldwide no longer invoke the narrative of democracy versus authoritativeness. The ‘stampede’ to join BRICS is a good ex-

GLOBAL ALTERNATE FUTURES

ample; it is not only Chinese influence but more of a move to express their autonomy of action or policy making.

The so-called ‘Middle Powers’ believe they should have a greater frame and role in framing, interpreting and administering the rules of a new international order. The US National Security Strategy of November 2022 acknowledges this; it actually says that all nations supporting universal rights and freedoms should have the opportunity to participate in shaping the rules of an international order, whatever their political system. Of course, translating this principle into action in U.S. policy requires changing habits that have grown over many years of being the sole superpower.

Globalization in the current version has been securitized and fragmented. The WTO no longer oversees the rules of the road for trade; multilateralism is virtually dead. The Russia-Ukraine war has sharpened polarization along one axis, the West Asian crisis along another, and the U.S. and China standoff on yet another axis. A ‘liberal international order’ sounds hollow when most liberal democracies have now introduced illiberal elements into their functioning.

Looking at this dismal report card, the question to be asked is whether we today have a functioning international order? You have an international order created during the Cold War, which, because of developments after the Cold War, is actually dying. Today’s situation involves a still dominant U.S., a sulky Russia, a truculent China and a directionless Europe. Then, there are many middle powers jostling for influence.

THE UNITED NATIONS How can you name an organization “Unit-

11

ed” split across many axes? The United Nations Security Council is supposed to have the ultimate responsibility for peace and security in the world; it is impossible to indicate even one action that it has taken over the last ten years that has actually promoted effectively peace and security in the world.

The United Nations can work as part of an international order that most countries subscribe to. However, that climate does not exist right now. In a post-Cold War situation, no functioning international order is recognized by a sufficiently large number of countries.

Therefore, the United Nations must be reinvented; its current configuration and functionality is of little use to the world.

A NEW GLOBAL SYSTEM? The world cannot afford a war of any kind or any catastrophic or cataclysmic event to impose a new order. But it needs eventually to move towards an order that addresses an attitude of zero-sum.

We need to recognize the need for a sustainable European security architecture in the current circumstances. As the conflict in West Asia shows, we need a similar kind of security equilibrium in West Asia, which was ignored after the Cold War. The Indo-Pacific is similarly still operating on Cold War templates and has to move beyond it.

While there is no sign of an emerging new order, the best we can do is manage conflicting trends and forces and pull back before they get into open and unmanageable conflict. As regards future trends, one cannot identify anything in terms of the future from here.

EXPERT COMMENTS SETTING A CHAIN REACTION

POINT OF NO RETURN?

While plotting the trajectory to 2035, it would be appropriate to use an analogy from nuclear physics. There are two ways to extract energy from the elementary fossils. The first way would be fission, and the second is fusion. Fission implies you have heavy molecules, mostly molecules of uranium or plutonium, that you can split into smaller ones and release a lot of energy.

In doing so, you launch a chain of action, and the chain of action will release this energy.

We are currently at the stage of international relations that can be compared to fission. We see a very rapid disintegration of the old international order, and this process has already acquired the features of a chain reaction. The jury is still out as to when this transformation took place. Experts debate whether it was the global financial crisis of 2008 or the 2016 U.S. elections with Donald Trump taking power in the White House. The Russian and Ukrainian conflict is an important turning point, perhaps a point of no return.

The second way to get energy is through fusion, which means you take very light molecules like deuterium and merge them into larger combined pieces - nuclear. And these processes also release this energy, even more energy than fission.

It’s not a regional crisis; the global implications of these fission processes are clearly visible. Arms control, at least in the traditional format, is almost dead. And there’s not much going on between Moscow and Washington and not much at the multilateral level. Further-

GLOBAL ALTERNATE FUTURES

more, there is a rapid complication in relations between China and the United States. Hopefully, the recent meeting between Chairman Xi and President Biden will positively impact the stabilisation of this increasingly adversarial relationship. However, some negative trends in relations are already irreversible, which may translate to other regional crises like the South Caucasus, the Sahel region of Africa and the Middle East. And finally, there was this sudden and dramatic escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Therefore, it seems the world is helpless in stopping these chain reactions.

Even reversing the trends appears extremely difficult, if not impossible.

A LAUNDRY LIST OF OPTIONS However, that does not mean that nothing can be done to limit the damage of this disintegration, even if it takes a couple of years to alleviate the damage and to pave the way for a new stage- perhaps three or even five years.

The international community will have little choice but to undergo the pains of this traumatic and dangerous phase in the international system. We should take a bottom-up rather than a top-down approach, considering specific incremental ways to fix problems that can be fixed today.

That implies that potential agreements should be anchored upon mutual interests rather than common values. Unfortunately, common values are not attainable at this given moment, and it might be counterproductive to focus on common values, especially given the crisis of liberal political thought being witnessed today.

It would also be fair to say that we should preserve the ambiguity. Ambiguity is not always bad. Ambiguity might help us to avoid issues that cannot be resolved at this particular juncture. We should try to explore opportunities for minilateralism since multilateralism is in crisis. Many multilateral institutions turned out to be not very efficient.

Ultimately, there is no alternative to multilateralism; even in its reduced form, it is a major asset that should be preserved and nourished. The current flux in the international system will not last forever, and we will see a new

12

dawn of globalisation. The resurgence in globalisation will result from increasing common pressures on all the world’s nations- climate change, biodiversity, deficit of resources, uncontrolled migrations, and many other issues that call for common action. And these pressures will increase over time.

Second, it is important to note that technological advances will create new opportunities for cross-border cooperation. Geography is important, but geography’s relative importance is likely to decrease over time.

Finally, no nation is really interested in an uncontrolled arms race, in an uncontrolled proliferation of nuclear weapons or multiple crises. So, there will be pressure on national governments to return to the diplomatic table to restart efforts and provide multilateral solutions to common problems.

A NEW WAVE OF GLOBALISATION The new wave of globalisation might become a reality in a couple of years, maybe by the end of this decade.

The new wave of globalisation will be very different from what we witnessed during the turn of the century.

First of all, it will have different drivers. It will not just be about global finance or global business; it will also be about global civil society. It will be about social movements that acquire a transnational and transborder character.

Second, the agenda of the new wave will be different from what we saw 20 years ago. Back then, it was mostly about individual freedoms. These days, it is likely to be more about social justice. The left movements worldwide, including the East and the West, to the North and the South, are also becoming very bullish.

Finally, the main problem that has to be addressed over the new stage of globalisation is not likely to be the problem between the East and the West, nor the problem between Russia, China and the United States.

It is likely to be a much more fundamental challenge of fixing relations between the global North and the global South. That would require a major redistribution of global resources, a major development in all countries in the global South and major changes within the international ecosystem, including security and development dimensions.

We will all have to go through this very difficult period, but at the end of the day, we will be in a position to climb to a new level of global governance.

DR ANDREY KORTUNOV Director General of Russian International Affairs Council, Moscow

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

ENERGY SUSTAINABILITY

One country cannot achieve energy security by itself. Collective security in the military sense is also true in the energy sector, as well as sustainability.

This article is based on the talk delivered by Nobuo Tanaka , Former Executive Director Emeritus of IEA,, during the 9th Synergia Conclave.

A

strategic oil stockpile was a key element of energy security when the IEA was created almost five decades back during the first oil crisis. Since then, the release of strategic stockpiles has occurred five times, the last being during the recent crisis created by the war in Ukraine.

But now, it is not only oil but also gas, coal, and electricity. And we are facing the global energy crisis again after 50 years. This is the energy market structure that grows much faster than all other markets and in a very diversified way.

CHANGING NATURE OF THE ENERGY MARKET Oil was a major part of energy in 1973. Now the market has grown much faster in the emerging economies and diversified. The biggest expansion happened in electricity. It moved more than five times as AI and data centres put up enormous demand, which will only increase substantially.

The Forecast of energy security suddenly changes accordingly. Henry Kissinger, the founding father of the IEA, wanted China and India as part of the IEA to make the institution a relevant forum for future energy security, climate change and sustainability.

Women and the younger generation have a major role in addressing different challenges. Women can play a much larger role in peacebuilding than even the UN; in the pandemic, women leaders did a better job than their male counterparts.

There is a positive correlation between climate change mitigation and women’s participation.

The IEA surprised the oil market with the release of oil stocks last year. Two years ago, it surprised OPEC and oil majors with the Net Zero by 2050 Roadmap publication, saying that no new oil and gas field development would be needed in what can be termed the “IEA shock.” A couple of weeks ago, IEA surprised us again with the New World Energy Outlook 2023. Due to the slowdown of the Chinese economy in the future, their fossil fuel demand will peak sooner than expected, i.e., by 2030.

Expansion of the solar boom could reduce the gas and coal demands if Net Zero happens. Accordingly, this has seen investment in fossil fuels slowing down just as investment in clean energy grows much faster.

However, it must be accelerated much, much more to achieve Net Zero by 2050. IEA’s major concern today is that the green technology supply chain is concentrated in a very limited number of countries.

ENERGY SUSTAINABILITY

The energy security paradigm will be very different in the Net Zero 2050. The IEA’s Net Zero scenario shows that 47 per cent of the energy trade will be critical minerals and 35 per cent hydrogen by 2050.

14

could force other European countries to share the burden of transformation.

China controls a major part of the processing and production of batteries, EVs, solar cells and electrolysers.

Securing the supply of lithium, cobalt, and copper is already a major concern of G7.

Dr Fatih Birol, the current executive director of the IEA, said that the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act is the single most important energy and climate action by any country since the Paris Accord in 2015. Support for EVs, hydrogen infrastructure, carbon capture and storage are enormous. The U.S. will definitely be a winner.

Strategic stockpiles may witness the replacement of petroleum by hydrogen strategic stocks, including MCH (Methylcyclohexane (MCH), a hydrogen carrier composed of liquid made by the chemical reaction of hydrogen to toluene).

Another big oil producer, Saudi Arabia, plans to generate green and blue hydrogen to avoid stranded assetisation of its oil and natural gas. China and India will aim at a renewable superpower. How can Japan and Korea survive? Maybe hydrogen and nuclear power.

WINNERS AND LOSERS

Another winner is a group of corporations like Big Tech firms who demand that their supply chain be carbon-free by 2030. Sony may move out of Japan to stay in Apple’s supply chain; a nation state may be a loser if it does not move quickly enough. The demand-side-driven transformation has come. Hydrogen cost will determine the cost of green steel production.

Hydrogen will play a major role. Japan introduced a liquid natural gas supply chain 50 years ago. Now Japan leads, establishing a supply chain for creating green hydrogen by three transportation and storage technologies, namely liquefied hydrogen, MCH and ammonia.

The golden age of hydrogen is around the corner.

Japan and Korea are very vulnerable because of importing 100 per cent of oil and gas now and in the future. The United States achieves energy independence by fossil fuel.

Russia seems to be least prepared for this climate shock. Russia lost its status as an energy superpower by the invasion of Ukraine and faces Western sanctions on technology and self-withdrawal of investment, expanding military expenditures and increasing brain drain.

These factors may hurt its ability to adapt. Europe may well be a winner by accelerating decarbonisation and de-Russianisation. Hydrogen is a key tool together with renewable energy. EU’s Carbon border measures

NO SINGLE WINNER One country cannot achieve energy security by itself. Collective security in the military sense is also true in the energy sector, as well as sustainability.

The grid connectivity of Europe as an Energy Union is the case; it further strengthens the hydrogen pipeline system. For example, many ideas exist for connecting grid lines between India and its neighbours.

Future investment in energy-intensive industries will likely favour regions with outstanding green electricity and CCS. The U.S., in particular, has great potential in this regard. In Japan, the semiconductor companies and data centres seek to build their new plants in Kyushu,

ENERGY SUSTAINABILITY

15

where solar is abundant and in Hokkaido, where wind is abundant. And Japan’s steel industries may be forced to seek their future production sites outside Japan. Nippon Steel is interested in investing in India.

President Obama’s Libyan invasion and President Trump’s rejection of the JCPOA with Iran and handshake with Kim Jong UN convinced North Korea to develop and hold nuclear weapons.

NUCLEAR TO THE RESCUE?

President Putin is threatening the world with the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. In the Gaza war, there have been references to nuclear weapons from Israel’s side by some ministers in the government.

Many countries have been very positive about nuclear power recently for the sake of security as well as sustainability. Nuclear capacity should be doubled to achieve Net Zero by 2050, especially in developing economies.

The cost of reactor construction is an issue. Delays and cost overruns have destroyed Areva, Westinghouse and Toshiba. Building a new reactor is very expensive, but extending the life of a running reactor is competitive relative to solar and wind power for the new build.

Flexible models and small modular reactors will be the choice. It is not the size but the modularity and standardisation that reduces total cost and risk in nuclear technology.

There are four additional conditions for nuclear to be sustainable. First, the small modularity with passive safety features. Second, radioactive waste disposal plan.

Third, the proliferation of registrants and the final point - the socio-political acceptability and sustainability in the locality.

One of the models that satisfies all these conditions is an integral fast reactor of the Idaho National Laboratory of the United States.

THE DARK SIDE OF NUCLEAR Sadly, nuclear power cannot be separated from the issue of the weapon. Continuous geopolitical mistakes by political leaders have increased proliferation risk. We are in the middle of a nuclear crisis.

Japan, the USA and South Korean leaders who met recently at Camp David should work together on a sustainable and peaceful nuclear reactor system as well as the issue of the North Korean nuclear threat. These countries can also cooperate to develop nuclear propulsion submarines- a Northeast Asian version of AUKUS. Japan needs a nuclear submarine to deploy tomahawks.

While Japan is not interested in building nuclear weapons, 50 countries in the world may potentially build weapons, although only nine of them have them right now. Japan and Korea should join the nuclear weapon ban treaty to renounce the weapon; India should also join this league by giving up nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapon states monopolise the Permanent seats of the UN Security Council; non-weapon states must be given a prominent role in the United Nations.

Yuvak Noah Harari, author of The Sapiens, has called for political leaders with global identity to address the challenges of the current situation. The three challenges he mentions are nuclear war, ecological crisis and tech destruction by algorithms.

Women and the younger generation have a major role in addressing different challenges. Women can play a much larger role in peacebuilding than even the UN; in the pandemic, women leaders did a better job than their male counterparts. There is a positive correlation between climate change mitigation and women’s participation.

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

TECHNOLOGY FUTURES

Seven domains will be relevant- artificial intelligence, mobile communication (6G), blockchain, quantum, metaverse, synthetic biology and aerospace.

This article is based on the talk delivered

by Dr K Radhakrishnan , Former Chairman, ISRO, during the 9th Synergia Conclave.

A

ny attempt to foretell the technology future would be based on an aggregation of key technology drivers and plausible trajectories, even though it is a tricky matter to do currently, such projections for technology.

What is the big picture? Essentially, technology is advancing exponentially. If you look from the first industrial revolution, which was mechanization, then electrification, automation, and digitization, all these are over now - we are in the fifth Industrial Revolution since 2020. Our predecessors had a half-life of 50 years for the skills, but today, a survey of the World Economic Forum says that it is five years or even less for certain types of skills.

EMERGING TECHNOLOGICAL DOMAINS Seven domains will be relevant- artificial intelligence, mobile communication (6G), blockchain, quantum, metaverse, synthetic biology and aerospace. And all these are interconnected and each one develops along with the other, hence the rapidity of the development for the future.

In the last decade, there was a movement from Industrial Revolution 4.0 to 5.0; we might see two more in the next ten years. It’s also imperative to reinvent.

Otherwise, we will not become relevant. And, more importantly, proactively regulate for a secure world.

AI today has moved from artificial narrow intelligence to artificial general intelligence and is on its way to super intelligence- machine learning to machine intelligence to machine consciousness.

By 2040, these machines will be able to compete and compare with the best 25 per cent of humans in the world.

Recently, Amazon has been laying off a major group handling Alexa, and they will focus more on what is called generative AI. AI today has moved from artificial narrow intelligence to artificial general intelligence and is on its way to super intelligence- machine learning to machine intelligence to machine consciousness. By 2040, these machines will be able to compete and compare with the best 25 per cent of humans in the world.

AI permeates every aspect of daily life: finance, healthcare, logistics etc. Data security regulations are all important to protect users’ data, to counter the growing inequality, to strengthen software standards and to provide a fair, equitable expansion across the society.

India has made inroads into a select group called 3GPPP (The 3rd Generation Partnership Project is an umbrella term for several standards organizations that develop protocols for mobile telecommunications). It is a group that makes decisions, and India got into that group through 5Gi standards that are more relevant for developing countries like India. A similar situation

TECHNOLOGY FUTURES

will be reached with blockchains, private blockchains,, consortium blockchains, enterprise blockchains,, assetset tokenization, smart contrac,ts, etc. When we talk of neighbourhood diplomacy through technology, we should keep in mind that 6G is going to unite three worlds: the physical world, the digital world, and the human world.

We are also looking at Web 3.0 with the principles of decentralization, trustlessness, semantic web, and interoperability. And this will create a disruption in how we do e-commerce today.

IoT is known by everyone today, but it is evolving, especially if you look at healthcare for aged people.

Four years ago, I was in a guest house interacting with a doctor who was in the hospital. The monitors were elsewhere, but I was monitored for a week and certified okay. Soon, this is going to be the practice.

And when we talk about AI and IoT, we will again see edge computing and Generative AI coming into the picture. Blockchain, associated with cryptocurrency, will be the key enabler for the future digital economy.

And one thing that is going to happen is the enterprise blockchains. When in the 1980s, the Indian government supported satellite communication on a national level while the corporates already had their satellite networks.

Quantum computing is another major area that will make many changes in the next two decades. It is expected that quantum computers will complement classic computers and they will solve complex problems.

Cloud access to quantum computers and the scaling up will make fault-tolerant quantum computing commonplace.

Quantum-safe cryptography is a major area for future developments. The convergence of AI and ML is, of course, accelerating material things. But neuromorphic or brain-inspired computing is going to be important in robotics.

In space, should we send probes on long space odysseys? Can we do that with space robotics? We are

17

looking at cognitive capability, whether it can be built into the robot like this, and then if you can send a robot instead of a human being, life is far, far better.

2D materials, the graphene transistor – will be another game changer. A tectonic shift is the software 2.0 writing itself and sustainable computing. While virtual reality for training has become commonplace, augmented reality has come into the picture. Two major ideas are developing. One is in the health sector, and the other is in the industry sector.

In therapeutic activity, the interface technologies to augment social and emotional connections through ultrasonic waves and non-invasive neuro technologies are gaining traction. There is a need for this kind of technology in academic institutions. Minor surgeries have been conducted on the orbiting International Space Station based on instructions radioed from Earth by surgical specialists. Now, this can be done remotely.

Medical research is witnessing an increasing use of synthetic biology. In the designer phases viruses and spatial omics are being engineered. Spatial omics technologies rely on other approaches. They may use nonmicroscopic methods such as mass spectrometry (MS) to detect analytes, perform staining and dye removal cycles to achieve the required complexity or harness the power of high-throughput DNA sequencing and barcoding.

In aerospace, a circular economy could transform business models. The circular economy could support sustainable practices on the lunar surface, including resource utilization, waste reduction, and equipment recycling. That means servicing satellite systems or refuelling satellites in the earth-moon orbits. There are also plans for space manufacturing on the Moon or Mars, and asteroid mining is already being contemplated.

Space tourism is now emerging.

Game-changing technology is capable of global disruption, decentralization, and democratization of data.

One can expect a plethora of use cases powered by AI/ ML operations. These could be based on data flowing through fast and intelligent networks running on significant energy-efficient computation capacity with applications extending beyond Earth to space.

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

EUROPE 2035

18

PAUL REVAY

Former Director, Trilateral Commission, EU

EUROPE 2035 Three issues are relevant while addressing the future challenges for Europe-security, the future of multilateralism, and issues pertaining to institutions. However the question remains whether Europe fit, for example, on the future enlargement?

Regarding security, some diverse threats and risks are on the rise now. Obviously, these risks are particularly heightened on the European continent, with wars returning to the continent. The European Project, at its origin after World War Two, was to build a continent of peace and development with no more wars, But the continent is back to having mega-traditional wars.

War did come back during the Yugoslav wars of succession, but today, a much higher intensity is clearly visible. So, this implies, of course, that Europe needs to strengthen and defend its defensive priorities. The problem will be that with so much security in Europe still very much nationally moulded, building a common European defence is increasingly becoming urgent. This is the reason for the new European Defence Initiative.

Despite BREXIT, it is interesting to note that military and security cooperation between Britain and Europe continues very much as before, so there is clearly no ongoing Brexit outcome. However, Europe will have to maintain efforts to ensure greater European cooperation outlining clearly the shape of military relationship between European states, within the NATO members and at the transatlantic level where there are challenges. The good news is that there seems to be a common approach that is now geared to overcoming past challenges, as often exemplified by France’s somewhat difficult relationship with NATO, which is no longer the case.

The second point is on multilateralism. Europe has been one of the forebears of the multilateral system. It has been fighting on many fronts to ensure that multilateralism remains in play. But obviously, the multilateral system of today is under great strain. It obviously needs to be modernized, and the European Union will continue to work closely, especially with the UN secretary general, to ensure that in a multi-polar world, the multilateral mechanisms fit the challenges of the 21st century. Here, a good example would be how Europe

is helping out the WTO, which is also going through very difficult moments. Therefore, a European Union brings ideas and fortitude to these institutions, which are being heavily battered. A stronger Europe is needed, which, through stronger partnerships in different areas, ensures that this cooperative nature of countries continues. Globalization has fundamentally changed and is fundamentally challenged. All these challenges to globalization show that this model is now coming under strain.

We have to find a new way ahead in the globalization model, an endeavour in which India could help. France looks forward to these partnerships and discussions with India on how to define a new global architecture in one way or another. The final point is on the institutional aspect. It will be interesting to note that we have institutional problems in the European Union for those who do not come from Europe.

However, these are not new, so we should not overdo and exaggerate them. Still there is a big challenge ahead, which will be how to make enlargement right and ensure it is the Europe we want. The European Commission recently formally recommended enlargement with candidate stature to Ukraine, Moldova and Bosnia-Herzegovina, implying that ten new members should come into the European Union by 2030, although there is no final date. In this context of enlargement, increasing domestic problems have arisen, which have surfaced at the political level. European citizens are increasingly wary of these tsunamis of enlargement the European Union has fielded since the big bang of 2004. There are four strategic challenges that Europe faces in enlargement.

It’s basically how to prepare candidates for the progressively moving target of European membership how do we manage this moving target, how do we imply all this, how do we make Europe ready for absorbing and benefiting from ten new members joining the European Union? And finally, how do we manage the EU enlargement and partnerships given the challenges we face today? We need to overcome these challenges. We need to find cooperative solutions. But we are democracies, so our politicians must sell the products straight to the citizens.

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

GEOECONOMIC FUTURES 2035

The emergence of the global south is hugely welcome for the countries themselves, of course, but also for the world.

This article is based on the talk delivered by Prof Mats Karlsson , Former VP of World Bank, during the 9th Synergia Conclave.

I

n Dante’s Inferno of 1472, the inscription over the entrance to hell runs: ‘Abandon all hope ye who enter here’. Confronted with the question of what the future will be like in a dozen years, 2035, well, one can be forgiven for fearing what awaits us. Even if hell is not quite the only possibility, whoever tries to forecast surely faces a hellish task already.

THE DOMINO EFFECT A dozen years ago, the world was just about able to manage the seismic financial crisis of 2008. Still, it did not see the consequences of the austerity programmes nor the ensuing underinvestment in public services and infrastructure for which we will have to pay for years to come. We had also not foreseen the full consequences of the Iraq invasion in 2003; it was a breach of the global security order.

The surging migration fuelled the disruptive rise of far-right populism in Europe and the U.S. We had not yet seen (the now evident) economic consequences of climate change, although predicted in the 1950s and now making reinsurers and financial regulators nervous.

We had not had COVID, although pandemics would have been on any government’s top ten list of serious, unexpected risks. And we had to recommit to basic sci-

The span between realistic, good, bad and evil scenarios has widened. Faced with uncertainty and downside risks as never before, if our 2035 hope goal is prosperity, security and sustainability, these objectives can only be achieved if our sense of justice informs the social contracts underpinning economic life. ence, public health and institutions. AI was still only in its laboratory infancy, drones were toys, and fake news had not yet torn our communication asunder.

Globalisation was still a strong locomotive with rising income that would follow stronger institutions and democracy, many of us thought. We can no longer see a solid relationship. Instead, populists and autocrats of different views are gaining ground, supporting each other, whether they have common interests or not. There was a serious dialogue between the global powers with the assumption that international law and multilateralism were useful. Today, it is increasingly replaced by a sense of power rivalry, fragmentation and hyper-dangerous conflicts.

And once this genie was out of the bottle, it is now taking on a life of its own in unexpected places. Those signs were visible a dozen years ago. We did not prepare for the consequences, either geopolitical or geoeconomic. The implications of not having had foresight on each of these issues and more are dire.

GEOECONOMIC FUTURES 2035

What is the point of scenario writing if the willingness of strategic policy planners to seize the possible is not acted upon? Over the years, with every iteration, the set of scenarios has shifted in the direction of fear, even despair. Such is our planetary predicament and the nature of today’s politics in many nations and in international relations.

So how do we avoid the same mistake? How do we bring the set of narratives about the future in the direction of hope while still being a hard-headed analyst instead of only adding more weight to the accelerating deterioration? We need to focus on what we should hold on to and be aware of how to build the case for hope in this time of uncertainty. It is close to a moral duty to try to see elements, be they geopolitical or geoeconomic or indeed technological, that could make strategic policy planning for the better.

Five perspectives will determine likely scenarios on the spectrum as far ahead as 2035.

SCENARIO ONE -CHINA China’s economic challenges may not be solvable within their current model. In every economic way macro, micro, demography, green transition - China’s challenges will not go away easily or rapidly. The party-state will have to focus on these issues for a very long time and seriously. Is this societal model really adapted to the world?

China gives cause to worry about their macroeconomic situation, its housing market, and what it can trigger domestically. China’s population will start to decline. They have an age profile that is going to be difficult to maintain socially. I think that’s important. China needs to face what all ageing societies and modern societies have had to face, namely the social-based health system; China needs a welfare state.

As societies mature, certain structures have to be created that protect people. China may have exhausted what migration can give with the first stage of urbanisation. They have to create more stable perspectives

20

for the demographic profile they have for the profile of knowledge that the Chinese will have. And it would be frightful if China returned to the old ways of changing the social model. But maybe the positive would be if they find ways of reforming, while they still have time.

In 2035, profound changes can and may come to China, too, however remote the possibility might seem now. This is good news as far as it goes, but China is far from a sustainable path and what is sustainable won’t be sustained and that something must give to something else. The question is how.

SCENARIO TWO: POLITICAL STABILITY OF THE U.S. The U.S. is today in its deepest political crisis since its civil war; outsiders are complacent at their peril. The dangers that Trump unleashed are deeply unsettling.

They are existential for the U.S. as we know it. Trump’s party shows no sign of halting the self-harm it is inflicting on the country’s social fabric.

The good news is that the institutions remain intact.

And importantly, the economy is hugely resilient. On all counts - inflation, growth, employment, green investment, innovation, health, the rational policy side is winning ground. If that political path can heal the societal rifts and rebuild social cohesion internally, then and only then can the U.S. uphold its role as a leader and adapt its role as a partner in the world. No country can be stronger externally than it is strong internally, and the current internal weakness simply is why the U.S. keeps missing the opportunities to be bolder on more open and wider trade and economic relations.

SCENARIO THREE-THE RISE OF THE GLOBAL SOUTH The global South has emerged. What will its diverse nations make of it? Its emergence is hugely welcome for the countries themselves, of course, but also for the world. The global South now stands to overtake the rise of China as the most important current economic phenomenon of our time. Country after country, self-iden-

GEOECONOMIC FUTURES 2035

21

tifying with the Global South that keeps its eye on the ball and builds institutions, opens freedom for its people, respects rights and laws, is moving down the path of rising productivity and prosperity. It starts at home.

There will be many models. Developmental paths will differ. India will choose its way. The Indo-Pacific has huge potential.

climate, trade, finance and many specific sectors. The field is huge, and there is no one model. Fragmentation is a threat. But I put my money on that effectiveness and coherence will weed out what is empty politics and strengthen what is useful if rational minds prevail.

Africa’s rise is underway. Complex as it is, the world’s population growth will come to a halt at 14 billion this century, when Africa reaches 4 billion larger than India and China. The young in Africa must be brought into the mainstream. Given a chance, they will take it.

Europe, as in the European Union, will become larger and stronger for reasons inherent to itself. Europe is usually said to punch below its weight. There is a lack of joint-focused political developments in different member states, its belated focus on defence and defence industry and obviously how Europe is going to handle its multitude of socio-economic challenges are some concerns.

If the world is to be a secure place and all parts sustainable, we must, therefore, care about each other, look out for each other and be honest with each other.

Each country’s choices impact others. In the European Union, by way of a treaty, each country’s economic policy is the business of others. The rise of the global South will transform international cooperation and global economic governance. The question is whether the multitude of institutions we have and those being formed can work coherently and provide real added value through norms building, finance, and shared public goods.

A case in point is the current discussion on international tax. It is certainly a 2035 issue. It should not be an issue of which institution leads. It should be an issue of effectiveness so that global economic governance can be built credibly. Predictability and law are in the highest interests of institutions and corporations of the global South. Global and regional economic governance should support each other. Keeping the national flag waving to a minimum might seem like a wish and a dream. Still, stronger institutions in different geographic constellations and groupings can emerge to deal with

SCENARIO FOUR-A STRONGER EU

But one should recognise Europe’s lasting strength.

The EU has not backslid. The war in Ukraine has transformed the resolve for strategic integration. It took Germany less than a year to overcome its dependency on Russian energy. Some governments, such as Hungary, are spoilers but carry no clout in the EU. On the contrary, countries in the East and the Balkans who want to become members are now on an accelerated track to accession. Expect the coherent agenda contained in Ursula von Der Leyen’s recent State of the Union address to strengthen over time.

Expect Britain to work more closely with the EU again and watch the elections to the European Parliament in June next year. From a 2035 perspective, much could happen. No one could imagine Brexit a dozen years ago, and Britain regrets it today. But my money is on a stronger Europe. When you look at the international tables and graphs, beware of not seeing the whole category of the EU, not only its major members.

GEOECONOMIC FUTURES 2035

SCENARIO FIVE- RUSSIA IN DECLINE A word in this context about Russia is needed with 2035 in mind. Russia has a lot of work to do domestically. It has a decreasing aging population of 145 million and an economy just larger than Spain or Scandinavia.

And unlike every major country of the global South, it produces next to nothing of value in terms of innovation for the global market.

Its chosen war will leave an investment gap at home to be paid for over decades. Russia’s current international influence stems from its military projection, including its command over false news and is, therefore, highly overrated in economic terms.

President Putin is likely to suffer a strategic defeat sooner or later in this war on Ukraine and on international law. Russia’s European neighbours all choose the EU and democracy any day. This will not change.

In time for 2035, change in Russia is also possible, and though scars will last, new perspectives might become conceivable. Russia’s choice at that point may not be as important for Europe or the world as it is for its own people.

A SPECTRUM BETWEEN FEAR & HOPE We now have more to fear, and more is demanded to achieve what we could hope for. The span between realistic, good, bad and evil scenarios has widened.

Faced with uncertainty and downside risks as never before, if our 2035 hope goal is prosperity, security and sustainability, these objectives can only be achieved if our sense of justice informs the social contracts underpinning economic life.

Low-level equilibria exist among social contracts.

Countries carry different histories, but rights, including human and economic rights, are fundamental to sustainability, which in turn can only be found through

22

deliberate, deliberative processes in good faith. That mostly goes under the name of democracy, and the objectives can only be achieved if a willingness to comply with the law permeates economic life.

Corruption is the opposite driver. No scenario writing can be done without assumptions of degrees of corruption. We know that corruption is fiendishly adaptable also to democracies.

But the way in which economic and political elites have pursued interests at the expense of justice, law, rights and truth is perhaps the single most important obstacle to what could be possible.

The objectives are only achievable if our understanding of economic change puts productivity at the centre. Productivity, because better than many other measures, thinking productivity will lead you to the binding constraint facing economic improvement and competitiveness.

And it is also far more likely to lead to shared growth scenarios. And if we let the potential of female empowerment continue its breakthrough and inexorable rise - improving productivity, community building, early childhood development and rational societal choice to boot. And if we dare to test our best choices against false choices.

What are our blind spots? When are we fooling ourselves? When are we just repeating or, being self-servicing or denying our weaknesses? Future scenarios can indeed be analysed by likelihood, but they grow in science as what drives choice is essential, rational or irrational.

And lastly, will we stand a chance if we have the courage to put well-being at the core of our understanding of prosperity rather than the usual economic measurements? Well-being, too, can be measured scientifically and operationalised to strategy, but only if it is articulated and agreed upon. Given our track record, hope might seem elusive, but it exists.

GEOECONOMIC FUTURES 2035

23

EXPERT COMMENTS

FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGY

SUPERORGANISM

Predicting the future of technologies by understanding the drivers of their trajectory.

It is not only our intellectual abilities that make us a smart species; some animal species could actually outsmart us in cunningness and their ability to communicate. What makes us so unique is what we call our consciousness.

Future Thinking is a branch of another scientific discipline called Systems Thinking. We must understand the pattern that drives humans to develop new technologies to comprehend this.

As a species, humankind does not accept its physical constraints as a given, and for millennia, it has been trying to enlarge those capabilities. We do not accept that our feet can walk or run at a certain pace, so we are developing or inventing wheels, and we do not accept the force or the impact of our fists, and we are developing tools with which we are enhancing our abilities.

In the 20th century, we developed wings, which we do not have, using these wings to trade and wage wars!

In the 20th century, we also enhanced our cognitive abilities, remembering a lot of information and analysing information in fractions of seconds.

Now, we are at the stage in which we are trying to enhance our intelligence, what we call AI. It may take time, but ultimately, humans will ensure they have tools that mimic our intellectual abilities.

In each stage, some fears came with those abilities and capabilities developed. Surely, the fear of chariots as a warfighting tool would have been as strong as the fear of nuclear weapons.

We are on the verge of replicating our consciousness into our tools, which will change everything. It’s not AI; AI is just another step in a very long journey that we have done for millennia to enhance our physical and cognitive abilities.

The domain of consciousness is a very new scientific domain. Many people were afraid to touch that issue in the sciences until mind technologies and brain endeavours started being in the mainstream of science.

Science is looking at it more closely; how exactly is it different, and what are the stages in which our consciousness develops in our life cycle?

Kevin Kelly has written extensively on the philosophy behind how humanity is developing technologies.

In one of his books, he says that technology has already achieved a stage in which it can be defined as a living superorganism.

Everything we have been doing in our evolution comes from the driving force that we do not accept our physical existence as it is.

A superorganism can be defined as “a collection of agents which can act in concert to produce phenomena governed by the collective”, phenomena being any activity “the hive wants”, such as ants collecting food and avoiding predators or bees choosing a new nest site.

Kevin Kelly says that if you see how technology has developed for the last millennia, it fits the definition.

Now if this pattern is true (and probably there are other different patterns too that many people speak about), then we can try and extrapolate.

Some scientists say that we, as a species and collective, barely scratch the definition of a superorganism.

Others say that even one person is a superorganism if

GEOECONOMIC FUTURES 2035

all the mechanisms working together to develop and bring into action our activity, our way of thinking, etc., are considered.

Take, for example, a car that has something between 20,000 and 35,000 pieces assembled. Now, all those pieces are working in a concert so that we can drive from one place to place with a very comfortable ecosystem inside, listening to music, discussing with our family, etcetera, and all together as an entity. As per Kevin Kelly, we have been building entities that parallel the definition of superorganism.

Take, for example, a street in our cities. So many pieces of technology are working together so that we can walk, drink, eat, communicate with everybody in the world, buy whatever he or she wants, and order things to come. Altogether, all those pieces of technology are a kind of living entity.

Even if there is a catastrophic end to humanity, the streets will continue to ‘live’ till they run out of energy.

And probably, in the future, energy will continue generating itself through different autonomous things.

Kelly further states that to be a superorganism - a living one - you have to have a homeostasis- the power of scaling.

A superorganism has a hierarchy that starts with a lot of agents. In technology also, human beings are creating many sub-technologies that are agents to make the technology autonomous.

24

So perhaps technology is in the initial stage of being or achieving that level of a living superorganism.

However, after becoming autonomous, there is a need for consciousness about yourself and about what you are. What makes humanity so unique is that when we know something, we know that we know.

When we don’t know something, we know that we don’t know. When we know something, we know how valid our knowledge is.

This is the most amazing achievement of our species. It is part of a buzzword which is called consciousness.

One could say that AI is on a journey to achieve the ability to be conscious to make it truly autonomous.

There are several stages of being a superorganism. The most important stage is to be sentient, to feel our surroundings. AI is still very far from there.

By adopting the myth of technology being a superorganism, humankind can generate new ideas about what technologies we can develop.

Until now, humanity was acting on its surroundings and imposing our thoughts, understanding, and imagination on our tools.

By reversing the perspective, we can understand the next level, the next phase of our evolution as a species, because the most important thing is that we are about to start understanding our ability to be conscious and what it is exactly and where it is exactly and can we develop it further, when is it starting, can we shut it down.

PROF DAVID PASSIG Israeli futurist.

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

US-CHINA AND THE FUTURE OF IOR

The San Francisco summit is seen as a lifeline thrown to China by the U.S. This article is based on the talk delivered

by Jayadeva Ranade , Former Additional Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat & China Scholar, during the 9th Synergia Conclave.

T

he most significant power play playing out on the global stage for the last five years is the one between China and the United States of America. It impacts each and every one of us, some more than others, but it certainly impacts everyone.

It all started with Xi Jinping’s announcement in 2017 in the 19th Party Congress, a very unusual announcement for a leader to set a timetable for where his country will be by 2049, the 100th year of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. Mr Xi declared China would be a major world power with global pioneering influence - a code for China being the country that can create or influence international organizations. This goal has since been oft repeated in a different language, making it clear that China is unhappy with the existing world order and it needs to be changed and made more fair. In this, China has found a willing partner in Russia.

The U.S. understood that this was the challenge, and they reacted immediately.Any idea of the rising tension can be gauged from the deployment of the forces by the United States and others around China. China’s military build-up has been with an eye on the United States.

THE PRIZE IS THE INDO-PACIFIC The recent APEC Summit in San Francisco brought a measure of relief for everyone as it was seen as a deliberate effort to pause the rapid deterioration of relations

The Chinese have made at least three offers that have come out in the public domain to the United States, saying you look after the from the Pacific Ocean eastwards, we look after westwards, and if you’re worried, we’ll share the intelligence with you. The U.S. hasn’t accepted it.

Chinese, as the Americans know, do not believe in equal partners. They believe in a junior partner, with them being at the top of the heap. and put off what seems to be inevitable- an open confrontation between the two.

Despite the protocol on display in San Francisco, it was clear that President Xi Jinping had not backed off from his stated ambitions. He went a step further and rather brazenly invited the United States to join his initiatives, namely the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, the Global Civilization Initiative, and the Belt and Road Initiative, in case the U.S. felt left out. And the U.S., on its part, did not respond.

The fact is that China’s ambitions have not been scaled back. A few days before the summit meeting, there was a show of force by the Chinese against Japan against the Philippines off the St. Thomas shore and around Taiwan. And that has not eased off. At the summit, the Chinese, in fact, reiterated their goal of reunifying with Taiwan. Chinese diplomats have been saying

US-CHINA AND THE FUTURE OF IOR

26

that China is the only P5 country that has not achieved reunification. So, the intent is very clear. As far as the South China Sea is concerned, which is the immediate neighbourhood of China, there has been unchecked expansion of Chinese influence. While no country has blocked them, China has expanded its reach, building military facilities on various islands that they have reclaimed.

Each one of the navy captains of their ever-expanding People’s Liberation Army Navy has been familiarized with the Indian Ocean region and has gone across into the Atlantic and in the northern Bering Sea, etc.

They are now, of course, trying to enter the Arctic.

The San Francisco summit is seen as a lifeline thrown to China by the U.S. The First positive development was that the commerce ministers of both sides resumed talks, and the second was the lifting of sanctions on the Forensics Office of the Ministry of Public Security, which did two things. One, it showed that sanctions imposed by the U.S. were open to negotiation. In other words, if China plays its cards right, it can get sanctions lifted.

The second is that the U.S. was willing to compromise because Xi Jinping said he would try to see if the problem could be resolved by talking to his former companies. Now, in a communist state, particularly China, this kind of trying by the president is a very diluted kind of commitment, but apparently, it was enough.

PRESSURE IS ON BOTH SIDES The pause comes when the window for reconciliation is shrinking for both countries.

For China, Xi Jinping is seeing mounting domestic discontent and dissatisfaction against him personally.

There are accusations that he has mishandled the relationship with the United States, which has accentuated the economic difficulties not only for the Chinese people but for the Chinese state also.

The Chinese provinces are cash-strapped and unable to pay their employees. Salaries have been cut by 30 per cent, and bonuses are being withdrawn. The San Francisco Summit has slightly lifted the mood of the Chinese economy, even if all sanctions have not been lifted in the technology sector.

President Xi Jinping is unwavering in his goal for the reunification of Taiwan. He wants to go down in the history books as the first man who, if not having achieved it, at least started the process. If domestic discontent spurred by the economic situation mounts beyond a certain level, then President Xi Jinping may be tempted into some rash action.

But the window for him also is shrinking-perhaps two to three years to do something.Similarly, in the West, the 2024 Presidential elections are looming for President Biden. President Biden also has concerns for the U.S. economy. He had lined up all the heavy hon-

chos of the huge multinational corporations who paid $ 40,000 for the privilege of sitting at the same table.

For the United States also the window is shrinking. And there again, I think I would give it another two to three years.

AMERICAN INTERESTS IN ASIA American interest in Asia, a rapidly rising geo-strategic construct, is long-term; AUKUS is a good pointer in that direction. These three nations (U.S., U.K. and Australia) are getting together to try and see that they continue to profit from a rapidly rising Asia. The Chinese have made at least three offers that have come out in the public domain to the United States, saying you look after the from the Pacific Ocean eastwards, we look after westwards, and if you’re worried, we’ll share the intelligence with you. The U.S. hasn’t accepted it.

Chinese, as the Americans know, do not believe in equal partners. They believe in a junior partner, with them being at the top of the heap. And will the Americans, and more importantly, the American public, even if not the American corporates, accept being number two?

India will also be affected, no doubt. But India is not dependent on the U.S. to the extent that whereas we have had Chinese aggression or military adventures against us in Doklam, we stood firm and held them off for 73 days. Again, since April 2020, 70,000 troops are facing each other.

We have not backed off, and we don’t intend to. In this limited sense of military strength, India will hold its own. But the same cannot be said for either Japan, Vietnam, or Singapore. We could perhaps see a new coalition comprising India, Japan, Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia, and maybe Australia to stop the Chinese overlordship in this region.

SYNERGIA COMMENTS In about 18 to 24 months, we expect that the Americans would be self-sufficient in semiconductors, and then largely, their dependence on Taiwan will reduce. If so, what does it mean? Because we already see that, for some reason, the Americans have started this process of wanting to bridge the rift that was there.

US-CHINA AND THE FUTURE OF IOR

27

EXPERT COMMENTS THE BLUE DRAGON STRATEGY President Harry S. Truman said there is nothing new in the world except the history you don’t know. British Prime Minister Winston Churchill echoed his sentiments when he remarked, “The longer you can look back, the farther you can look forward.”

China is developing what can be termed a “Blue Dragon Strategy” for the Indo-Pacific. The British geographer, Mackinder came up with his heartland theory in 1919 about East Europe-Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island; who rules the World-Island commands the world.

Similarly, American naval strategist Captain Alfred Mahan said, “America’s future depends on the sea power strategy because we have two ponds on both sides, the Pacific and Atlantic.” Similarly, China is also acutely aware that whoever controls the Indian Ocean dominates Asia.

Since his entry into the political stage in China, President Xi Jinping has made it clear that he aims to bring back the Chinese rejuvenation. He started with Xi’an, the capital, following it with the Northern and Southern Silk Roads or the Belt and Road initiative.

China is looking into history to see the future. This encompasses the unification of Taiwan and reclaiming the Senkaku Islands from the Japanese. China’s linkage with the Indian Ocean dates back 2500 years to the Huang dynasty, which had sea links with King Bhuvanaikabahu in Sri Lanka in the 2nd century BC. General MacArthur called Taiwan an unsinkable aircraft carrier, and the former Indian foreign secretary Shankar Menon talked about Sri Lanka as another unsinkable aircraft carrier. So now you have two aircraft carriers-one next to China and another one next to India.

Another arm of the Chinese strategy lies in the Himalayas, where it goes through Pakistan with its China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), while another goes through Myanmar. American policy related to the Taiwan Relation Act of 1979 has an in-built ambiguity.

This has clearly encouraged China to push forward in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, ultimately

pushing the U.S. away from the Western Pacific. However, it does not stop there as China wants to go to the second land chain, the third land chain, the fourth land chain and the fifth land chain. China already has a naval base in Djibouti, its first military base in the Horn of Africa.

That leaves two ‘unsinkable aircraft carriers’ to deal with. China is following two strategies- a military strategy to reunite Taiwan and leveraging the historic connection for Sri Lanka, what can be called the ‘Buddhist Diplomacy.’

Chinese investments in projects like the Lotus Tower in Sri Lanka, the tallest tower in South Asia, align with this strategy. Naturally, this makes India very nervous.

China would like to turn the Indian Ocean into the Western Ocean. There is a reference to this nomenclature in ancient Chinese literature.

When Admiral Cheng Ho visited Sri Lanka in 2009, he put a tablet in a southern city of Sri Lanka stating that the Chinese purpose was a peaceful world built on trade.

And now Sri Lanka is the epicentre of the debt trap, saddled with numerous mega projects, including the world’s largest and emptiest airport near Hambantota. The eastern arm of the encirclement of India goes along the Brahmaputra River and Mekong to put pressure on India.

China controls Southeast Asia as it builds dams that can be used to control the flow of water downstream.

It is not only India that will be impacted but also Bangladesh.

America is finally waking up to what China is doing. Just before President Donald Trump left the White House, he declassified classified information on a U.S. strategy framework for the Indo-Pacific.

The strategy calls it a National Security threat to the United States and a continental challenge. Remember what Napoleon Bonaparte said about ChinaLet China sleep; it will shake the world when it wakes up. We are at the epicentre of what Napoleon Bonaparte had predicted.

DR. PATRICK MENDIS, Author, Former American Diplomat and Former Visiting Professor, Chengchi & Peking University

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

GLOBAL CONFLICT RESOLUTION

“The most inconvenient truth is that from Bogota to Mindanao, the history of conflict resolution is littered with failures.”

This article is based on the talk delivered

by Krishnan Srinivasan , Former Foreign Secratery of India, during the 9th Synergia Conclave.

I

n the first century of our era, St. Matthew, the evangelist, wrote, “Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called the children of God.” Six centuries before that, a Greek lawyer called Bias said, “Gain your point by persuasion, not by force. It is better to mediate between enemies than between friends, for a friend is sure to become an enemy and the enemy a friend.”

Conflicts and disputes are a part of the human condition, and conflict resolution is as old as humankind.

No one can escape conflict at home, in the family, or at the workplace. When people come from diverse backgrounds, with different capabilities and attitudes, or when conflict escalates into violent actions and leaves aggressive words behind, the process of mediation is obviously far more challenging.

PRINCIPLES OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION Conflicts can be of different kinds: between individuals, businesses, states, provinces and nations.

Conflicts exist between governments and opposition, authorities and civil society, and between warring countries or blocs. There are decades-old inherited historical conflicts and brand-new ones that are unexpected. Almost every big nation suffers from some degree of separatism, and the list and variety of conflict situations are endless.

Publicity is the enemy of conflict resolution, which is best done behind closed doors until the conclusion. This, for example, has been one of the many problems in attempts at reducing tension between India and Pakistan, where one country or the other has sought advantage by briefing to its benefit, thereby terminating the negotiations.

In 1981, an iconic book called “Getting to Yes, Negotiating an Agreement Without Giving In”, spawned a whole range of mediation literature, and it also introduced a mediation philosophy.

Harvard University now even has an entire course dedicated to this subject. It has mediation principlescheck each side’s perceptions, avoid blame, draw out the core interests, allow free expression without interruption, communicate only in a positive way, refuse to react to avoid escalation, and always express appreciation. To this, we might modestly suggest a couple of other principles. One is that mediation is not a court of law. It has no set rules, no procedures, no precedents.

And secondly, that it is always better to achieve something than to end up with nothing.

Despite these principles, the bottom line is that there is no universal template. Each situation is unique and calls for improvisation. And the most inconvenient

GLOBAL CONFLICT RESOLUTION

truth is that from Bogota to Mindanao, the history of conflict resolution is littered with failures.

THE ART OF MEDIATION If both disputing parties are ready to accept the mediator, that is a giant step forward because it confers authority on the mediator and assumes that both sides are at least ready to discuss some kind of settlement.

The disputants may not be equal in hierarchical terms, wisdom or strength, or frankly, in any other parameter.

This may, in fact, be the root cause of the problem. A basic equivalence may have to be contrived by the mediator reinforcing the weaker body. But this is a highly delicate manoeuvre because the appearance of partisanship will bring mediation to a very quick end. Negotiation, of course, is a process of give and take.

In identifying possible areas of compromise, a mediator must be clear on the red lines for each side. Every party to a conflict has a core position, which must be recognised and understood. Each side must have the opportunity to express its demands and expectations.

If this cannot be managed without acrimony in the other party’s presence, then proximity talks are an option. This involves the two parties being in some reasonable proximity but not in the same room so that the mediator can shuttle between them until both can be brought together for a successful conclusion. But frankly, this option of proximity talks is less-than-ideal, and proximity talks have usually failed.

According to Henry Kissinger, the mediator’s role is to formulate, persuade and perpetuate. The mediator must present ideas that could form the basis of a solution, identify the various steps required towards that settlement, and how that solution can be sustained in the future.

Occasionally, the services of a guarantor organisation or an individual are needed and called upon. Even this arrangement is fragile. The UN Security Council, for example, failed to prevent the collapse of the JCPOA, otherwise called the Iran nuclear deal, of 2015.

29

It has been said that there is no problem that time does not solve. And it’s true. But the mediator should never appear to be rushed. The mediator must be indifferent to time and allow rising tempers to cool. A deal struck in the spur of the moment is never a deal for long. The quicker the fix, the quicker it falls apart.

So, the ideal mediator is patient, pragmatic, neither deferential nor diffident, undeterred by setbacks, and willing to take responsibility for unpopular compromise. To save the face of the contending parties, the mediator must be ready to act as the lightning rod.

Ownership is important, and this can never be the mediator. Even if it is the mediator’s formula, the settlement must be the language of the parties concerned.

And at the end of the mediation process, both sides should feel they have achieved something. Neither should feel defeated. It is aptly said that the best settlement is when both parties end up feeling equally aggrieved.

CONFLICT RESOLUTION BETWEEN NATION STATES Publicity is the enemy of conflict resolution, which is best done behind closed doors until the conclusion.

This, for example, has been one of the many problems in attempts at reducing tension between India and Pakistan, where one country or the other has sought advantage by briefing to its benefit, thereby terminating the negotiations.

There have been calls in India for the government to mediate in Ukraine and even now in Israel-Palestine. India has a successful domestic dispute settlement record in Assam, Mizoram, Nagaland, Punjab and elsewhere.

But overseas, especially after the period of Nehru, the record is patchy- the Tamil Tigers and the Sri Lanka government, or the communists and other parties in Nepal. So perhaps local is not global. But then, on the other hand, there was the successful G20. And let us remember that China, with no previous global mediation record, proved successful in bridging the profound rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

GLOBAL CONFLICT RESOLUTION

Some governments have a reputation for mediation. As we all know, Norway was involved in the Middle East and elsewhere. In Norway, with a small population and the locus of the Nobel Peace Prize, for centuries, the search for amicable settlement has been a feature of its civil litigation. But there are gaps even in Norway’s mediation record. It failed in Sri Lanka when the Tamils refused to disarm.

The Swiss and Swiss-based International Red Cross use constitutional neutrality in this area. And there are some intergovernmental bodies like the United Nations, of course, and the Commonwealth, and some non-governmental institutions like the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue and Interpeace.

Another that we all know about is the Carter Centre, which worked with some success in North Korea in hostage situations and in Cuba. Gulf states, Oman and especially Qatar, a small, rich country with a pan-world airline, an American military base and offices of Hamas and the Taliban, have been active in mediation efforts, especially with issues concerning Iran and now lately in Gaza.

Timing is essential. Mediation can come too early or too late. Turkey was the ideal mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war, being a Black Sea neighbour with strong economic ties to Russia and providing arms to Ukraine.

It successfully facilitated a settlement in March last year, which would have saved at least 400,000 casualties. But possibly, it could be said that this settlement, this arrangement, was too soon. And it was aborted from a quarter that was not present at the negotiation.

There could always be a deus ex machina- the phrase used to describe any situation where something unexpected or implausible is brought into the storyline to resolve situations or disentangle a plot. The resolution could come from a new character, device, or event.

I was the mediator between the Papua New Guinea government and the insurgents on the island of Bougainville. The understanding was that if the rebels laid

30

down their arms, there would be a ceasefire. And talks would begin about the devolution of powers. The Port Moresby government refused to be present. So, these were proximity talks that took place near Brisbane in Australia.

The rebel groups were not united, and there was also an initial problem in addressing them because they went by various fanciful military titles, like the Bougainville Revolutionary Army General, Admiral, Commander, et cetera. After ten days of hard slog, an agreement was reached, providing for a ceasefire. But the rebel boat was fired upon on the way back by sea to Bougainville.

It is not known to this day who was responsible. But we could speculate that a party not involved with the negotiation brought that mediation effort to an abrupt conclusion.

Gandhians Nelson Mandela and Archbishop Tutu pioneered mediation and conciliation with a complete difference. The performative and dramatic aspect of the South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission was essential to its success. To quote from a contemporary account, “The commission itself is theatre, its hearings open to the public, televised, and broadcast.

The hearings are presided over by the archbishop himself in full Episcopal purple. The hearings move from town to town, the table for witnesses set so high that they never have to look up. A large banner on the wall reads ‘Reconciliation through Truth’. It could just as easily have read truth through reconciliation.”

The subject would not be complete without a mention of India’s unique contribution to conflict resolution and the search for peaceful reconciliation. In the incomparable Mahatma Gandhi, India was privileged to possess a one-man truth and reconciliation commission, a case where one individual’s aura was sufficient to bring a healing touch to even the most fraught and violent situation. Einstein called it the convincing power of his personality. Mahatma Gandhi believed in the principle of no victor, no vanquished. This surely must be the formula for every successful mediation.

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

AI-ENHANCED MILITARY COMMUNICATION Successful armed forces tend to be those that better overcome the new problems created by technological advances.

This article is based on the talk delivered

by Major General Chris Smith, Deputy Commanding General (Strategy and Plans, US Army Pacific Command, at the 9th Synergia Conclave.

T

he future is irreducibly unknowable, and war is a practical phenomenon. Cognitive actions like knowing, thinking and deciding that could be more impacted by the application of advanced computing are likely to have a more substantive influence on warfare than applications that enable better command and control.

This may run somewhat counter to the prevailing thinking. A word of caution is advised for those who think that the potential of advanced computing in warfare is greatest in the area of command and control, particularly its support to decision making on the battlefield.

Advanced computing refers to a range of technology like artificial intelligence, machine learning, quantum computing, etc.

This analysis does not touch upon cyber warfare because there are essentially only three security-related things that one can do in cyberspace- espionage, sabotage and sub-diffuse/ misinformation/disinformation.

When it comes to warfighting, those things, while they have been present in the battle space from the very beginning of time, have never actually been decisive.

Chinese strategists claim that artificial intelligence’s value for decision-making will cause future warfare to become a competition over which states can produce computers with the quickest computing capacity. They claim that wartime commanders will be armed with supercomputers that will come to surpass the decision-making capabilities of the humans directing them, what the Chinese call ‘Algorithmic Warfare.’ The same strategists predict that frontline combatants will be gradually phased out and replaced with intelligent swarms of drones that will give operational-level commanders complete control over the battlefield.

INFORMATION IGHTING

DOMINATION

&

WARF-

Returning to the 1990s, the decade of Fukuyama’s End of History. At the beginning of the decade, in the process of liberating Kuwait, the American post-Vietnam rejuvenated army and air force virtually annihilated Saddam Hussein’s army. And in the aftermath of that, there were some major claims made.

AI-ENHANCED MILITARY COMMUNICATION

To some, the American success was evidence that developments in precision munitions and information technologies had changed the very nature of war, and it seemed that the side able to take full advantage of those new information systems could succeed in battle and win wars with reduced risk to their troops. And it inspired a theory of network-centric warfare.

Network-centric warfare theorists like Vice Admiral William Owens, the Vice Chairman of the American Joint Chiefs of Staff in 1995, made some bold claims, for example, that technology could enable U.S. military forces in the future to lift the very fog of war itself.

He said battlefield-dominant awareness, the ability to see and understand everything on the battlefield, might now be possible. He observed that when you look at areas such as information warfare, intelligence, surveillance and the like, you see a system of systems coming together that will allow the U.S. to dominate battlefield awareness for years to come.

And he concluded that it suggests we will dissipate the fog of war. Now, to some extent, Admiral Owen’s prediction was true. He was probably fair to say that the United States dominated those particular fields for the next decade. And the reconnaissance strike systems that he anticipated in those words have certainly come to play a significant role in warfare.

In Ukraine, for example, the battlefield is so saturated with sensors, particularly drones, that almost nothing can occur unobserved. These sensors are linked to digital command and control systems and responsive long-range fires such that if any force congregates in any significant size, it is easily discovered and rapidly destroyed. Advanced sensors, autonomous explosive boats, and long-range anti-ship missiles have largely made Russia’s Black Sea fleet redundant. Local air superiority in that war seems to be as much a function of ground-based air defence systems as it is of a traditional function of aeroplanes. But despite all of that, or perhaps because of all of that, as the recent comments of the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief indicate, the Eastern Ukraine front is in a state of stalemate. Over the summer, the Ukrainian land forces advanced at most 17 kilometres and only in a few particular places.

32

Rather than providing a decisive advantage to one side or another, the new reconnaissance strike systems have strengthened the defence over the offence in warfare that the net result seems quite disappointing. Its features are trenches, futile attacks, stalemate indecisiveness, attrition and seemingly a long war with no clear path to victory. It is as though the net result of the information age advances is a reversion to a sort of early and mid-20th-century warfare. The scenes coming out of Eastern Ukraine resemble more than anything the Western Front of 1916 and Stalingrad of 1943 more so than we might envisage some futuristic vision of warfare.

The Ukraine War is not the only recent example of this phenomenon. The war fought to force ISIS out of Northern Iraq had very similar characteristics; even with complete air superiority and a complete overmatch in space and electromagnetic warfare capabilities, it still took months and thousands of Iraqi infantry before the Iraqis were able to force ISIS back into Syria. The recent Israeli incursion into Gaza looks very similar, too.

It may be recollected that many times, war theorists go wrong. For the air power theorists, the flawed assumptions were that the bomber would always get through and, having got through, that the bombing would have the effect of decisively demoralizing the civil population, bringing an end to war. Network-centric theorists assumed that the senses would deliver perfect knowledge and awareness of the battlefield and that having achieved perfect awareness would offer a marked advantage in decision-making, quality and speed.

The assumptions are flawed in both cases because they derive from a mechanistic sense of the battlefield and war. Clausewitz observed war is akin to a duel, a physical and dynamic thing, a function of doing rather than thinking, and something considerably more complex than an action-reaction, counter-action dynamic.

When Admiral Owens made his extraordinary claims about the effect of information technologies on warfare, he assumed that only his side would have the advantage offered by the network. And like his air power counterparts, he imagined the adversary largely as a passive thing that is reactive; he had not anticipated a

AI-ENHANCED MILITARY COMMUNICATION

future in which both sides could achieve a similar level of technological advancement and, therefore, similar levels of battlefield transparency. It is for these reasons, perhaps, that despite such extraordinary technical advances in recent decades, particularly in the areas of information sciences, warfare today, at least warfare on the land, still looks much like the wars of the middle and early 20th centuries.

EXPECTATIONS FROM ADVANCED COMPUTING A 2021 Global Trends Analysis Report from the Office of the American Director of National Intelligence states that “the future of warfare is likely to focus less on firepower and more on the power of information and the way it connects the military forces through concepts of command, control, communications, computers and the like.”

The second quote is from Dr Michael Richardson, an Australian researcher in political violence and emerging technologies at the University of New South Wales. He claims that there is “a move towards killing that is intensely predictive, and we will have the technological capacity in many instances to take human decision-making out of the killing process and to push computer predictions to the forefront.”

The People’s Liberation Army is making similar claims about the effect of advanced computing on warfare, too. Chinese strategists claim that artificial intelligence’s value for decision-making will cause future warfare to become a competition over which states can produce computers with the quickest computing capacity.

They claim that wartime commanders will be armed with supercomputers that will come to surpass the decision-making capabilities of the humans directing them, what the Chinese call ‘Algorithmic Warfare.’ The same strategists predict that frontline combatants will be gradually phased out and replaced with intelligent swarms of drones that will give operational-level commanders complete control over the battlefield. They expect over time that the tactical level of warfare will largely become a function of competition between robots and, therefore, in some ways, largely become a game.

These recent claims are very similar to the claims of Owens and the network-centric warfare theorists of the 1990s. All the Western and Chinese claims are heavily premised on the assumption that knowledge and decision-making are critical in warfare. This assumption can be challenged. Reconnaissance strike systems are having a profound effect on warfare. In one sense, they have given age-old battlefield features like fortifications, stalemate, nutrition, new leases on life, artillery and land mines are proving as important in the battles in Ukraine as anything else. But in another sense, they have caused us to ask some hard questions about warfare, including the whole function of domains in warfare.

33

For example, the range and accuracy of modern armed drones and missiles coupled with ubiquitous sensors pose profound questions about the conduct of war at sea. The challenge that the Chinese systems pose is a particular example. It is already probably possible to exercise sea denial over vast swathes of the ocean from the land with missiles and drones, a circumstance never seen before and why air power has not been as decisive as expected in Ukraine. Importantly, all these emerging changes to warfare have only a tangential relationship to the matter of knowledge and decision-making by commanders.

FLAWED ASSUMPTIONS The main expectation of advanced computing for command and control and, in particular, decision-making in warfare is that it will improve both the quality and the speed of decision-making. It promises to sift through enormous amounts of battlefield data in the blink of an eye and develop plans and solutions for attack and defence in battle. It might even predict what an enemy will do, enabling some form of pre-emption.

It promises to take all the tracks of the myriad targets on the battlefield, including ships and planes radars and headquarters, air defence systems and the like. Based on an awareness of one’s target priorities and the state of one’s systems and munitions, this computer brain will assign the best munition and the best launcher to the most appropriate target in this central grand reconnaissance strike system. And from those promises is the grander promise that these results will offer greater battlefield advantage or even a war-winning advantage to the side that takes full advantage of them.

The idea that improved decision-making, enabled by advanced commuting, will have a marked influence on warfare is based on a common fallacy to overestimate the importance of cognitive command and control functions like thinking, knowing and deciding in warfare. Knowing your enemy’s intentions and his disposition certainly has its advantages. But knowing what your enemy is doing and is about to do is not decisive.

War is about doing, not about thinking or knowing.

In his seminal book titled Intelligence in War, British historian John did a case study of the Battle of Crete in World War II. Having recently cracked the German enigma codes, the Commonwealth forces knew the German plans for the invasion in their entirety, time and place and manner of landing amphibious troops and paratroopers. Despite that knowledge and a numerical superiority by the Commonwealth defenders, General Freyberg’s defenders lost.

Would decision-making support of advanced computing have delivered a different result in Malaya and Singapore in 1942, for example? It seems unlikely. Would it have made the hard-fought battles of the Pacific Is-

AI-ENHANCED MILITARY COMMUNICATION

lands atolls any easier? Unlikely. Because the factors that led to those victories and losses were myriad, and most had little to do with battlefield decision-making.

The point is that knowing and deciding is less than half the battle. It partly explains why such a decisive technological advantage over ISIS in Iraq did not translate into a quick and easy victory. And this goes for maritime warfare, too. Investing in quicker and quicker decision loops might be pointless if sea denial can be affected by the land, for example.

Potentially, the solution will probably lie in changes to how you fight. In effect, careless investment in advanced computing to get some sort of battlefield decision-making advantage also has serious risks. One risk is that risk-averse commanders start to use advanced computing as a crutch for their decision-making and responsibilities, to, in effect, contract out the responsibility for their decisions to computer algorithms. We can all recognize this feature in human nature, particularly in a certain kind of commander. Advanced computing offers an alluring but potentially illusionary kind of due diligence. We can imagine how a commander might be reluctant to make battlefield choices inconsistent with computer-generated options and recommendations.

There is already evidence of this predisposition of commanders seeking certainty or assurance from the process and third parties for their decisions. In a paper authored by Dr Leanne Rees, Colonel Grant Chambers and Chris Smith (the author of this piece) a few years ago, it was found that the Australian Army was putting too much emphasis on quantifiable, procedural and informational aspects of the function of headquarters and staffs, even if such functions produced diminishing returns. Headquarters were not improving despite greater and greater effort and investment in C2 systems. On the flip side, it was found that effort put into broadening the battlefield experience base and the expertise of talented individuals for future command was likely to result in markedly better headquarters performance.

The commander’s role in a headquarters is fundamental and profound. Many commanders tended to become approvers of staff solutions and staff plans as

34

a function of that emphasis on procedure and information. They were keeping themselves somewhat at arm’s length from the circumstances of the battlefield and the detail of planning, acting more like staff course instructors approving their students’ solutions than acting as commanders deeply involved in the process.

On the other hand, talented and experienced commanders tend to rely on only a few pieces of information to make good battlefield experience decisions, and knowing what those pieces of information were impossible to predict.

This corroborates British defence analyst Jim Storrs’ assertion that decision-making in battle is not information-intensive but information-sensitive. In other words, there is little evidence to support the idea that lots and lots of data will lead to better battlefield decisions using AI; in battle, decisions only need to be near enough to be good enough. Regardless of the quality and speed of a recommendation by some advanced algorithm, commanders still need the courage or the nerve to act on the recommendation. They must still accept associated risks.

CONCLUSION Successful armed forces tend to be those that better overcome the new problems created by technological advances. Solutions to overcome the limits of new technologies normally relate to procedural, doctrinal and social adaptations rather than further technological advances.

Napoleon and Frederick the Great, universally considered two of the greatest geniuses in war, both pre-ordained their battlefield success with their focus on institutional factors such as rigorous training, selection of marshals, creation of staff schools, new social arrangements, taking advantage of nationalism for the levy en masse and many other similar factors. Applying advanced computing to the problem of ensuring a high quality of action is likely to get a greater return on the application of advanced computing than applying it to quicker and better decision-making.

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

ALIGNING TECHNOLOGIES TO FUTURE CONFLICTS

“Foresight is not Predicting the Future but Minimising the Surprises.”

Lt Gen G A V Reddy AVSM, SC, VSM (Retd) is the former Deputy Chief of Integrated Defense Staff, DG-DIA and Strategic Advisor at Synergia Foundation.

T

he global environment is extremely competitive, with a heightened risk of interstate conflicts. This is likely to be further aggravated in future because of advances in technology, an expanding range of actors, difficult dynamics of deterrence, and weakening of treaties and norms of acceptable international order.

The changing character of conflict with rapidly advancing technologies, including hypersonic and AI, are creating new enhanced weapons systems while offering a wider array of potential across military capabilities, including military infrastructure and cyber and computer networks. These technologies will give states a broader spectrum of coercive tools that fall below the level of traditional military conflict. The potential for cost savings and fewer highly trained expert staff to perform the same activity using advanced technologies is gaining momentum.

As a result, activities that used to be only within the reach of large governments or militaries are now accessible to smaller states and non-state actors. The increasing availability of advanced weapons systems and growing employment of hybrid and non-traditional tactics heighten the risk of miscalculation and escalation, possibly risking unintended escalation into direct inter-state conflict. Nations that lead in developing and deploying advanced technologies such as AI, directed

Technological evolutions present opportunities for nations to create constructive transparency, facilitate new norms of behaviour and balance access to resources that keep those nations endowed with significant resources from punishing those without. The better we understand the potential opportunities the emerging technologies offer the nations, along with the likely future risks and threats, the better positioned we will be to chart a desired course by aligning the technologies to future conflicts. energy, quantum and other emerging technologies will have a significant advantage in future conflicts.

Current technological trends offer numerous options ranging from being bewildering at times, with new dimensions – faster, elusive, disruptive, lethal and these may be game changers. Technological innovations will alter the character of levels of conflict in the coming years. The futuristic trend is the battlefield’s hyper-speed of information access and processing, the contest for the electromagnetic spectrum, the ability to accurately anticipate adversary moves through automated means, and the AI-based decision support systems. The nations adapting the technologies will increasingly enjoy a capability lead. They will position their forces and the weapon platforms at the place they

ALIGNING TECHNOLOGIES TO FUTURE CONFLICTS

need to be, at the time they need to be, to gain domination in conflicts.

The implicit and dire need is more pronounced presently to craft a strategy to align the emerging technologies to future conflicts and warfighting concepts and doctrines. Firstly, we must identify the salient aspects of future conflicts, how different they will be, whether it will be more non-traditional, non-linear, non-sequential, and so on. Having identified the future conflict, scenarios and salient aspects, we have to analyse the technological impact, particularly of the advanced technologies. The next major challenge is to align these emerging technologies by utilising these technologies as a force multiplier for conflict resolution. Finally, we should not forget that advanced technology, however advanced it may be, is also vulnerable to adversarial actions.

The issue interests’ numerous stakeholders because of the unprecedented and unpredictable changes happening across the globe in geopolitics, wherein the churn out is rapid and extremely dynamic. Nations must take note of this and frame the strategy for the armed forces to align/realign to meet the futuristic technological challenges and optimally leverage and further explore them for furtherance of conflict resolution.

Technological evolutions present opportunities for nations to create constructive transparency, facilitate new norms of behaviour and balance access to resources that keep those nations endowed with significant resources from punishing those without.

The better we understand the potential opportunities the emerging technologies offer the nations, along with the likely future risks and threats, the better positioned we will be to chart a desired course by aligning the technologies to future conflicts.

36

KEY TAKE AWAYS • Integrate and synchronise advanced technologies to meet the challenges of future conflicts.

• Induce compliance of adversary by coercive deterrence - with AI risk mitigation, information warfare, cyber warfare, space-based assets and multi-domain warfare.

• Indian defence industries must scale up indigenous capacity, create support infrastructure, optimise brain power and ease private partnerships.

• Build a resilient ecosystem to proactively identify, monitor and counter a large scope of disruptive technologies, including cyber.

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

A FUTURE - READY TECH WARFARE

“We should be able to see first and see the farthest, reach first and reach the farthest, and hit first and hit the hardest.”

This article is based on the talk delivered by Air Marshal Manikantan, Air Officer Commanding - in - Chief, Southern Air Command, at the 9th Synergia Conclave.

“We should be able to see first and see the farthest, reach first and reach the farthest, and hit first and hit the hardest.”

I

t is necessary to examine the salient aspects of future conflicts and how they might differ; are they going to be more non-traditional, more non-linear, more non-sequential, etc?

After reviewing the scenarios and salient aspects of future conflicts, we must review the technological impact, particularly of advanced technologies.

We will need to align these emerging technologies to utilise these technologies as a force multiplier for conflict resolution. And finally, we should not forget that advanced technologies are also vulnerable to adversarial actions. We are at the cusp of a new era, but the very nature of conflict is changing and transforming at an unprecedented pace and so much is in the realm of science fiction. All this has to be viewed in the context of the unprecedented and unpredictable changes that are happening across the globe in geopolitics.

What will be the salient aspects of future conflicts?

How would technology play an important part in these?

And which technologies can be aligned in future conflicts?

In the future, wars will continue to be fought for the same reasons as the case so far. However, if possible, powerful nations may seek to bring out outcomes without resorting to overt military means.

Inducing compliance would include four phases, which we are all familiar with: information warfare, cyber-attacks, and coercive deterrence, which would include the massing of hybrid forces, including private military companies, the establishment of no-fly zones, naval blockades, etc. Intervention in the battle space is the fourth phase, if inevitable, would involve kinetic operations to degrade the enemy’s war-fighting potential.

AKING A LEAF FROM THE PAST Technological transformation is already underway.

Increasingly, the threats will manifest themselves at even longer ranges across all domains with much higher speed, high lethality and accuracy. For instance, at the end of World War I, who would have imagined that aircraft, aircraft carriers, submarines and tanks already being used in World War I would transform themselves

A FUTURE - READY TECH WARFARE

so much and become powerful actors in World War II, which was just 20 years ahead? The lesson is, though it is difficult to forecast which technology might eventually prevail, we need to align our capabilities, thought processes, and organisational structures to meet these scenarios of technological transformation ahead.

The Manhattan Project ushered in the atomic era, and nothing has been the same. Operation Desert Storm in 1991 showcased the successful alignment of technologies, precision-guided munitions, and GPS, all integrated into the strategy, minimising collateral damage and a quick victory, primarily from the air.

The Stuxnet worm, used against Iranian nuclear facilities, was a sophisticated cyber weapon that augured cyber warfare’s emergence.

Operation Neptune Spear in 2011, which led to the death of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, best exemplified the interoperability of technologies. Stealth helicopters, night vision equipment, encrypted communication, and real-time satellite intelligence were all combined for a complex mission by night, far away from home.

The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict of 2021 highlighted the lethality of autonomous UAVs. This marked the dawn of combat UAVs, and now it has been joined by the small UAVs proliferating in Ukraine.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, we saw the crucial role of biotechnology in monitoring and responding to the spread of the disease.

Biotech played a crucial role in the rapid development of vaccines, the use of telemedicine, the development of contact tracing applications, and data analytics.

CRYSTAL GAZING In the future, wars will continue to be fought for the same reasons as the case so far. However, if possible, powerful nations may seek to bring out outcomes without resorting to overt military means.

Inducing compliance would include four phases, which we are all familiar with: information warfare, cyber-attacks, and coercive deterrence, which would include the massing of hybrid forces, including private military companies, the establishment of no-fly zones, naval blockades, etc. Intervention in the battle space is the fourth phase, if inevitable, would involve kinetic operations to degrade the enemy’s war-fighting potential.

The key to military strength will continue to depend on technological innovation, especially in aerospace power, and nations will invest in technology to ensure mastery. Before we look at how technology will play an important role in future conflicts, let us examine past scenarios to see how they have impacted.

38

Urban warfare is already a reality. By 2050, over 70 per cent of the world’s population will likely be in urban centres, and militaries will have no choice but to fight in the cities. This will require responsive, agile forces to protect civilians and infrastructure and precision munitions to minimise collateral damage. All these are technology intensive.

Multi-domain operations will be the norm. Capabilities and resources of all domains will be integrated into the planning and execution of missions to beat the adversary’s strengths and to present them with operational and tactical dilemmas.

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Aligning technologies for military superiority essentially means integrating and synchronising advanced technologies within a military framework to gain a competitive edge and ensure dominance in battle. What advantages do we expect as a military user from such an alignment?

Real-time situational awareness will allow the commander to stay inside the adversary’s OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide and Act). This level of efficient decision-making is particularly crucial because future wars, as always, will be very complex and fast-moving.

So, this will greatly help them in anticipating.

Cutting-edge communication systems will ensure command and control over dispersed units, enabling rapid response and coordination between them for interoperability for orchestrating a complex response or campaign.

Risk mitigation will be achieved through AI-powered autonomous systems, which will reduce human presence in high-risk situations.

This will enhance operational effectiveness and efficiency, reduce human casualties and maybe even make military missions safer.

Space-based assets are always advantageous since they give you global surveillance, secure communication, precise navigation and great offensive capabilities.

Demonstration of technical readiness is very important for a nation because it provides strategic deterrence. A military with advanced technology is operationally much more effective.

For example, open-source studies of training exercises have shown that fifth-generation aeroplanes such as the F-22 and the F-35 have significantly higher kill ratios than the previous generation and much better survivability.

The MUMT (Manned Unmanned Teaming) is another technology that, in the future, will be a real game changer. Aligned technology will provide better protection for troops and minimise casualties and collateral damage.

A FUTURE - READY TECH WARFARE

Adaptability is crucial because the dynamic threat landscape of the future will require us to use adaptability to meet hybrid threats and make the most of resources that will always be scarce.

OPERATIONALISATION TECHNOLOGY

CONCEPTS

FOR

A military commander would be required to get a hand on the new technology- intelligence, weapon systems, maintenance and training, and link the technologies that can be aligned to achieve it.

Concerning intelligence, sensor fusion and data integration would provide the foundation as they integrate data from multiple sources and sensors like satellites, drones, ground-based sensors, etc. Advanced algorithms, AI, and machine learning can help combine these data streams for a comprehensive and real-time understanding of the battle space.

This would be useful even in detecting a stealth aircraft in a heavy, dense EW scenario. The machine vision technologies will analyse imagery and video feed from different sensors, providing insight into an adversary’s movements, vehicle identification, and even facial recognition of high-value assets.

Predictive analytics using machine learning models can be trained to predict the adversary’s actions based on historical data, weather conditions, and real-time inputs and offer valuable inputs into potential threats.

For tamper-proof data storage and transmission, blockchain technology will be of great use for the integrity and authenticity of sensor data.

Weapon systems could be offensive and defensive and require things like directed energy weapons, which are high-energy laser microwave weapons that will provide precise near instantaneous engagement of targets.

39

Hypersonic weapons are highly lethal, very fast, and manoeuvrable. We have already seen Russia using them in Ukraine.

Aero engines to support them and electric propulsion are on the anvil and will provide the next level of capability.

Next-generation materials like composites and metamaterials would improve survivability and be used in stealth aircraft.

Multi-domain integration by linking air, land and space forces with communication and data sharing for integrated operations across domains will increase and enhance effectiveness both for offensive and defensive actions. It is important for defensive actions because it will improve our redundancy from physical and virtual attacks.

Operational logistics and maintenance are very important. Predictive maintenance monitoring can be done by implanting sensors and IoT devices on aircraft and other platforms to continuously monitor their health.

Machine learning and log algorithms can analyse and predict when maintenance will be needed, reducing downtime and extending the lifespan of equipment.

Additive manufacturing, like 3D printing, will revolutionise sustainability, a major problem today.

Warehousing can be automated with smart inventory management systems for efficient storage and retrieval of supplies and spares. IoT devices can track the location and condition of assets and equipment, enabling us to better manage them. Automation by using robots and autonomous vehicles for aircraft inspections, parts delivery and maintenance, thereby enhancing efficiency and reducing human labour and human errors.

A FUTURE - READY TECH WARFARE

For example, the G Aerospace Worm, Sensei Worm, is a small device that can crawl into interior parts of a jet engine and look for cracks, corrosion, and gas leaks, even measure the thickness of coating within, which will revolutionise maintenance of engines and avoid aero engine related accidents, incidents in future.

Concerning training, we could use LVC, which combines light training with virtual and constructive elements. You could have real aircraft, virtual simulators, and computer-generated forces all operating in tandem, making it more realistic.

Distributed mission operation systems will enable collaborative training exercises across different locations so you don’t have to move physically and save costs. Digital twin technology creates digital replicas of actual aircraft for testing, training, and maintenance simulations, thereby removing any risks of physical assets.

SOME RED SIGNALS There are limitations in this drive towards technology for the armed forces. The budget for R&D is an important issue because advanced technologies require substantial investments. Regarding India, our public R&D appears good at about 0.36 per cent of the GDP. Perhaps the private sector needs to pitch in a little more.

The proliferation of technology in this digital age is a real worry. Potential leakage into the wrong hands, particularly non-state actors, would pose serious threats.

Compatibility issues exist, as integrating diverse systems to achieve technology alignment is technically complex. It can result in communication breakdowns, reduced efficiency, and operational vulnerabilities. And while attempting to synchronise legacy systems with new technology, there can be further problems.

40

Cyber threats are real, and the interconnected nature of technologies exposes many vulnerabilities. Cyber-attacks can disrupt and cause even crippling of some of our critical capabilities.

Global supply chains are complex and susceptible, particularly for an aerospace industry. Counterfeit components, compromised software, and vulnerabilities introduced during production can all jeopardise the integrity and security of systems. Sabotage, espionage or theft in the supply chain can cause anything ranging from reduced safety to compromised national security.

It is also true that integrating emerging technologies has inherent risks. This includes a lack of maturity of the system, technology, and possible vulnerabilities that the adversaries can exploit. Its rapid development and deployment may also have outpaced certain regulatory and ethical frameworks, which could lead to unintended consequences or misuse.

There is also a major worry that technology replacing humans may cause some blurring of our focus and involvement, potentially leading to a disconnect between the operator and his immediate external environment. In other words, over-reliance on technology should not lead to complacency, which the enemy can capitalise on.

It is useful to highlight that the evolving character of warfare has placed great emphasis on multi-domain operations, which is very dependent on advanced technology.

Our endeavour should be to identify, nurse and leverage promising technologies to suit our operational requirements at an affordable cost and within a suitable time frame to deter our adversaries.

A FUTURE - READY TECH WARFARE

41

EXPERT COMMENTS ROLE OF INDIAN TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY As we look at the emerging flashpoints, which are challenging the multilateral order regarding how the world is run, there’s a huge transition happening in globalisation in the way we know it. Indian technology industry must appreciate these emerging new risks and work with governments to deal with them.

The challenge, of course, is that even though we are in the midst of the fifth industrial revolution, in the next ten years, we all will experience two additional technological revolutions, which is incredible. The timeline is just ten years for another revolution to happen. This complex collaboration between human dissection and technology intertwines weapons and non-weapons from defence or military products.

The question is, are we ready for this rapid transformation?

MANAGING TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE The Indian Government and its armed forces have created the building blocks for managing the imminent transformation.

The building blocks are there as part of the initiative that hasour armed forces and the Ministry of Defense have taken. For example, in the last two years, the IDEX (Innovation for Defence Excellence Hub) challenges have resulted in 250 project sanction orders. Last year, the Navy’s collaborative project SPRINT (Supporting Pole-Vaulting in R&D through Innovations for Defence Excellence (iDEX), NIIO and Technology Development Acceleration Cell (TDAC) was launched to induct at least 75 new indigenous technologies/ products into the Indian Navy.

lenges very well. A Bangalore-based startup that does edge computing in giving real-time language translation without the internet to the armed forces fielded a product about 18 months back.

The challenge for them was conducting rigorous trials with actual data available from the users. These 18 months were lost due to the bureaucratic challenge of sharing sensitive data with a private company to evolve the required accuracies.

Second is the aspect of procurement. The user and the industry must arrive at a common understanding of how to deal with the evolving environment and the procurement processes to engage with the industry to evolve solutions.

While collaborating with the services, clear pathways to work together have to be created; the real challenge is how both co-develop and co-produce the final product. An agile ecosystem has to be created to deal with such issues so that the industry and the user do not remain confined to individual silos, operating as two different entities.

Another major challenge is funding; for example, the IDEX programme does give large grants of up to 50 crores. A startup may have the deep technology but not the working capital to create even the trial product.

The government can fund them fully or create an Atmanirbhar bank that can give them loans at 2 per cent interest without a collateral requirement. Another angle is accepting a failure early without allowing an adequate number of iterations to improve the product.

The collaboration process cannot be just a one-time procurement but an engagement process over time.

There is a deep a deep engagement that is happening with the startup community, with the MSMEs and with the large industry in India. Multiple efforts and building blocks have been built by the government to facilitate engagement with the industry with myriads of Indian industries, the deep tech startups actually contributing to these programmes.

Indian procurement processes are often tenure-based; many projects once the dealing officer completes his/ her tenure and moves on. The challenge is that we need to specifically create technology champions within the procurement agencies. Indian Navy has tenures dedicated to creating solutions specific to the Navy. We probably need to replicate this in India’s entire technology acquisition process.

The other aspect is whether companies are investing in creating capacity and capability. While the answer is yes, there is still a need to look at scaling up.

Also, there is the aspect of integrating all of this from an intelligence perspective and, at the same time, have transparency in the system in terms of the battlefield and how we operate. Two examples illustrate the chal-

The big driver for India will be the startup ecosystem, which the defence sector will fuel in a very big way.

We will need to make a few policy changes that facilitate patents for software. So, we need an ecosystem approach and rewire our DNA for all stakeholders.

NEELESH TUNGAR Chief Operating Officer at Defence & Aerospace, Bharat Forge Limited

A FUTURE - READY TECH WARFARE

42

EXPERT COMMENTS

CYBER AS A STRATEGIC THREAT Cyber is a strategic threat. We are seeing several strategic trends in cyber security today with greater state, especially superpower, involvement in cyber. Cyber is becoming an area of conflict, an area that is complementing conflict.

There is an increase in cybercrime, even in countries with a relatively low crime level. We are seeing more and more cyber-attacks on critical infrastructures, including attacks impacting the physical world. There is large scale industrial espionage going on.

Powerful influence campaigns are being conducted in cyberspace, called CNI (computer network influence), that are trying to influence our minds, the way we think, the way we put in reality. There is also a proliferation of malware. Malware is relatively easy to use and easy to come up with.

CYBER RESILIENCE In the past few years, we have seen a few additional trends.

Number one is supply chain attacks. These attacks are targeting our supply chain rather than our organisations and have a severe impact because we cannot control the security of the supply chain.

News and social media campaigns are augmenting even relatively low-key cybersecurity attacks. An attack can be targeted against a relatively insignificant organi-

sation. Then, a huge media campaign complements this cyber-attack and augments it, so it becomes a huge issue.

Artificial general intelligence plays a larger role in cyber, considering that the ‘bad guys’ always utilise technology first and before the ‘good guys.’ There is a challenge in wrapping up our defences against cyber-attacks that utilise these new technologies.

So, the real challenges we see are maintaining business continuity, operational continuity, and national continuity, given cybersecurity.

We can disconnect connectivity, and then we will be completely cybersecure. But if we do that, we won’t be able to maintain continuity. Therefore, the issue is how to maintain continuity while ensuring cybersecurity.

Today, we are focussing more on cyber resilience rather than cybersecurity. And this means the ability to secure assets and be resilient.

Given a certain asset and a persistent enough attacker, they will manage to penetrate the asset, given enough effort and time. We need to overcome this cyber-attack and recover quickly with minimal damage.

The new paradigm is ecosystem cyber resilience; we need cyber resilience not only for our organisation or our nations but the entire supply chain, considering it an ecosystem. Artificial general intelligence can be used as a very effective tool in cybersecurity. But it is a double-edged sword. While it can allow us to detect threats

A FUTURE - READY TECH WARFARE

43

quickly, it can also allow attackers to detect vulnerabilities quickly. It allows for better automation, which is important considering this field’s skill crunch. There are not enough cybersecurity experts around them, but it can also help to introduce new vulnerabilities. AI can allow us to deploy adaptability, better known in moving target defence.

• Number two, a next generation SOC or a security operations centre to monitor the national cyberspace. A SOC that will allow us to monitor national cyberspace in a hierarchical mode effectively.

This means that our network shifts and changes its form constantly and the attackers are in a situation where they cannot make out the network that they are attacking is a very important one. So, AI can allow the good guys adaptability, but it can allow the bad guys better-advanced resistance rates.

• We need to protect our communication backbone and infrastructure. The backbone is crucial to communicate with our citizens, to be able to communicate with our ecosystem, and to be able to manage a cyber security incident.

Advanced resistance rates are adaptable rates where artificial general intelligence can help them to adapt. It can allow the good guys to use data better, but it can also allow bad guys to attack data and use AI to test their cyber-attacks better. So artificial general intelligence is a crucial building block in cybersecurity, but it is a double-edged sword.

BUILDING BLOCKS FOR CYBER RESILIENCE To achieve cyber security resilience, you need eight building blocks that act as a checklist that a nation-state should follow to achieve national cyber resilience.

• First and foremost, next-generation forensics and incident response. We need the ability to be able to analyse the attacks that happen, to recover from them and to be able to develop countermeasures.

• We need the ability to have proactive and predictive tools, especially for cyber-preventability.

• We need capacity building. We need to train everyone and increase the distance to have cyber awareness. The type of security experts should be able to train on real live setups to be able to run on the city webstores.

• We need to concentrate on infrastructure because there are a lot of them.

• We need to employ some sort of supply chain security.

• Finally, we need a framework for knowledge sharing and collaboration within and outside the country and to monitor social media because social media is the way CNI attacks happen.

ESTI PESHIN

VP, Cyber security, Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI)

SYNERGIA CONCLAVE 2023

PROTECTING INDIAN CYBERSPACE

Cyberspace today is a singular entity connecting all elements of comprehensive national power.

This article is based on the talk delivered by Lt General M U Nair, National Cyber Security Coordinator, India, at the 9th Synergia Conclave.

T

echnology is being used effectively in many ongoing conflicts, while nations with high technology thresholds also fail to detect challenges. Multiple actors are attempting to influence public opinion through technology-intensive platforms, weaving the flavour of the time.

Disturbances owing to ongoing conflicts, supply chain infections causing turbulence in global peace and harmony, impact of information operations focused on populations leading to destabilisation of adult franchises in electing future leadership of nations are some manifestations of technology in the hands of enterprising users. With technology changes moving ahead at a rapid pace, it is human ingenuity that can make the best use of it.

While there have been references to the dominance of technology in Israeli-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, the Indian experience may differ due to the terrain along our northern borders and the communication connectivity available in these remote locations.

Indian northern and western borders are unique, having multiple mountain ranges all along the international borders and necessitating heavy dependence on the electromagnetic spectrum for connectivity with terrestrial communications prone to breakdowns. The mountain ranges limit line of sight and make commu-

In today’s networked world, a nation’s entire financial or industrial or military might can be completely crippled through acts in the cyber domain.

Nations, organisations, and industrial conglomerates realise the impact of cyberspace operations only when they face the brunt of it. nications and surveillance systems prone to the vagaries of weather. This will be the scenario for many other similarly placed nations, too. The highest geographical feature in Ukraine is 2061 meters compared to India’s where features above 4000 meters are commonplace.

Cyberspace today is a singular entity connecting all elements of comprehensive national power. Decisions are made by leaders, political, military or in any field at any level based on information available.

The information available has multiplied a thousand times and is mostly based on automated means, all driven through the power of ICT networks. Being digital, the information can be manipulated or altered, which impacts decision-making. And, hence, cyber security today is an important and integral part of national security.

In a country like India, where the digital public infrastructure has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past decade and is growing rapidly, the scope

PROTECTING INDIAN CYBERSPACE

of interference in our digital infrastructure is large. The transformation approach adopted in embracing digital technology, reaching out to every citizen of our country, has paid rich dividends.

DIGITAL REACH TO THE MASSES Today, the Indian digital landscape extends to nearly 1.37 billion citizens out of the 1.40 billion population.

Benefits ranging from the financial sector to the health sector are being provided to the population in their hands or at their fingertips. Besides the citizen-focused programmes, there are a large number of measures adopted by the government where digitisation has been the pillar of good governance. These include the UPI, the Aadhaar, the income tax portals, the health mission, and the Digi Locker, all citizen-focused. The Smart City project, the Gati Shakti (All the existing and proposed economic zones have been mapped along with the multimodal connectivity infrastructure in a single platform) are efforts of digitisation covering multiple ministries and organisations.

All these efforts, combined with the rapid expansion of communication networks and applications of niche technology tools, have made the ICT ecosystem of India extremely complex.

Multiple service providers, ranging from small operators to telecom providers with a global presence and many data centres with tremendous capacities, now operate within India. The complexity is increased multi-fold when we look at a very large device ecosystem, the IoT ecosystem and applications that ride on our networks, making it a very potent cyber security threat.

The impact of information operations carried out through cyber-based platforms is a trend noticed over the past two decades. Decisions are being made, be it part of the electoral process, governance issues, or even, for that matter, military operations through what one sees and hears on social media platforms. Disruptive technologies of recent times have complicated the matter further, drawing a thin line between what is fact and what is fiction.

The impact of cyberspace to manipulate the energy and health sectors has several examples, some in the recent past. The telecom and ICT sector is yet another critical area where disruption can cripple government control structures leading to information voids, especially in a military operational scenario.

DISRUPTIVE ABILITIES OF CYBER SECURITY The art of waging war has many tenets, including the use of technology. What has changed in the recent past is the rapid proliferation of disruptive technologies coupled with miniaturisation, precision location and guidance, and enhanced surveillance over land, sea, air, space, underwater and even in cyberspace, leading to

45

situational awareness and decision-making becoming more complex. And all these are connected through the umbilical cord of the cyberspace. As a routine and part of government machinery, one does not feel the significance of cyberspace security as a crucial or critical factor warranting priority attention, investments, and monitoring.

In today’s networked world, a nation’s entire financial or industrial or military might can be completely crippled through acts in the cyber domain. Nations, organisations, and industrial conglomerates realise the impact of cyberspace operations only when they face the brunt of it. For instance, the Indian cyberspace has seen cyber incidents at an average of 2127 times during the past six months, much more than the global average of 1108. Over the past ten months, ransomware attacks have cost payments of nearly $1.54 million on average, double since 2022.

These payments are just the tip of the iceberg since several incidents go unreported. What, then, is a solution to cyberspace being used for causing trepidation, destruction and death at times?

It’s time for countries to rally together to contain and limit disruptive practices in cyberspace. There are many initiatives in this direction under the UN and regional forums where nations are looking for solutions to cyberspace, not being confined to national boundaries.

The advent of AI, generative and predictive, has resulted in uneasy manifestations that can cause turbulence in our societies. Do we change with time and adapt to these emerging technological marvels or attempt to part such ventures through legislation is something the nations are grappling with now.

For the military community, emerging technologies, especially in cyberspace, present many opportunities and challenges.

INITIATIVES TO CURTAIL DISRUPTION In the recent context of international security, a group of experts was appointed by the United Nations General Assembly to study cybersecurity issues. The report was adopted in 2021, which is an important contribution to developing international cyber security. The report provides for common understanding of the challenges and opportunities of cyber scrutiny and identifies several key steps that can be taken to address these challenges. It focuses on the increased sophistication of cyber-attacks, the growing reliance on information communication technologies, and the lack of international norms and principles for responsible state behaviour.

Some of the recommendations they have given include the development of international norms and principles for responsible state behaviour, promoting international cooperation and strengthening national cyber security capabilities. There is also an ad hoc com-

PROTECTING INDIAN CYBERSPACE

mittee to elaborate on the comprehensive international convention on countering the use of ICTs for criminal purposes.

This ad hoc committee is mandated to develop a new treaty that is more comprehensive than the existing UN convention on cybercrime and addresses the challenges of the evolving cybercrime landscape.

The new treaty is expected to cover many cybercrime offences, including cyber-attacks against critical infrastructure, cyber terrorism and cyber espionage. It’s also expected to include stronger provisions for international cooperation and information sharing.

The Counter Ransomware Initiative, or CRI, is a global initiative launched by the United States in 2021 to combat the growth of the threat of ransomware.

CRI addresses several key objectives, including disrupting ransomware actors and their networks, strengthening resilience against ransomware attacks, and improving international cooperation on ransom-

46

ware. Some initiatives are taken under the QUAD working group on cyber security under the QUAD umbrella.

Notwithstanding, a lot more needs to be done in the cyber domain through international cooperation. The tools for waging technology-induced disruptions have increased potency and ingenuity in recent years.

The concept of nationhood today is threatened by activities in cyberspace. Despite several initiatives by governments and the industry to address these concerns, a perfect solution is a remote possibility, considering the enormity of the challenge.

A fast-changing technology landscape and the ingenuity of human mankind require a common effort from multiple nations, organisations, governments, academia and industry as also the civil society to get together and identify ways ahead to plug loopholes, create policies and procedures, create legal mandates to eliminate or at least reduce the impact of cyber hostilities and influence operations which can today have an impact on not only nations but also our citizens.

EXPERT COMMENTS FROM THE INDUSTRY TECHNOLOGICAL FAULT LINES The future conflict will essentially be a dispute over the measure of technological power. It will be guided by agile, autonomous, asymmetric, anonymous and advanced AI technology. However, there is a logical fallacy in an AI system. If an attacker can identify it, he can attack it.

Geoffrey Blaney’s book ‘Causes of War’ says that the cause of war is essentially a dispute over the measure of international power.

This has been the pattern in the past. What is going to happen in the future? The future conflict will essentially be a dispute over the measure of technological power.

This is because either you trust the technology too much, you rely on technology too much, or transfer your agency towards the technology. So over trust, over the agency, over reliance is what will be the cause.

NEW TECH FAULT LINES So far in the human race, we have seen that the impact is achieved when you have the desire, intent, and action.

The only important factor in determining the impact was the intent because the intent is plus one or minus one.

It multiplies the entire impact on the positive or negative sides, and that’s what we need to understand. What is happening nowadays is that the technology is becoming the new fault lines.

Westphalian treaties have drawn many lines, and the geopolitics conflicts are based upon these fault lines.

Now, in cyberspace, technology is the new fault line.

Stephen Hawking said that success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history. Unfortunately, it might also be the last unless we learn to avoid the risk.

AI security is a critical component of national security. AI promises speed, scale, scope, sophistication and sustainability.

But the key question remains because AI is incomplete, inaccurate, incongruent, incomprehensive and unactionable. And fundamentally, this led to one single question: can I trust AI? And the answer is no. Technology will not replace but augment.

And technology is going to be a deterrence and empowerment. The winner in the conflict will be decided based upon desire-intent-action, which is human.

MANOJ PARMAR

Founder & CEO, AI Shield

PROTECTING INDIAN CYBERSPACE

47

EXPERT COMMENTS FROM THE INDUSTRY HOME-GROWN QUANTUM TECHNOLOGY The next big war will be a cyber war, and India must be ready. One of our neighbours already harvested critical encrypted data in a new attack called ‘Harvest Now Decrypt Later’, where all the critical data will be stored, and they will wait for the quantum computer to come and break the code. Since a lot of our national secrets and some of the other data have a long shelf life, which means that even if the stored and harvested data is broken in the next five years, it still will be a great threat.

So, the need for the hour is to secure our critical information infrastructure.

There is a global high impact situation in which digital identities are stolen. Current cryptography, which protects 80 per cent of the world’s encryption, is already threatened and is breaking down. In the last few years, the national power grid and the grid line became the first line of attack. The next big war will be a cyber war, and this threat is evolving very quickly. Last December, the U.S. made quantum encryption mandatory for all federal agencies. Hudson Institute, a quantum alliance institute in the U.S., did economic modelling and survey and concluded that a quantum-supported attack could cost the U.S. economy a multi-trillion-dollar impact. Therefore, indigenous quantum technology would be an essential defensive weapon in future conflicts.

QNu is a company that has started this effort. It is a seven-year-old startup incubated at IIT Madras. The Ministry of Science and Technology initially supported us and then the Ministry of Defence to build this technology.

QUANTUM RISKS A 4,000-qubit quantum computer will have enough power to break every possible encryption today in the world in a matter of minutes. This means everything that we encrypt today will not remain encrypted in future. So, there are two key worries: a long-term distilled identity, which we must protect because if identities are stolen, anybody can infiltrate our critical systems and do whatever they want. And second is future security.

Everything that we encrypt today should remain encrypted in the future.

China anticipated this a long time ago, about ten years ago. They started building their network. They have already completed a few thousand kilometres of fibre optic network with this technology. Where the fibre optic is not there, they have implemented satellite technology. They have also launched micro mini-satellites to build a secure space communication network as a backhaul. Also, they are working on taking the next step, where quantum sensing and quantum radars are built to detect stealth aircraft and stealth submarines.

QNu anticipated that India needs to have this technology. Today, it has put India on the quantum map of the world. It is among the top five companies in the world to have its indigenous technology today. This technology is built right from design development and manufacturing in Bangalore with a team of 65 people.

The company already has six patents in the U.S. and is production-ready and in the deployment phase.

The interesting part is that this technology looks at the complete cybersecurity realm, making it not only a network problem but the other end right down to the end devices. It takes care of storage, miniaturising it, making the world’s smallest customer-premise equipment that can fit in our pockets. It is wireless, can connect to a laptop and mobile and can get secure communication anywhere in the world.

A quantum key should be random and secure. We can distribute it anywhere and manage the key and key lifecycle. The quantum random number generator can be connected to the end of any optical fibre network to make it secure. Even for mobile phones, you can have Quantum Secure Messaging. We have also built a Vault Solution to store confidential data files. The beauty of this technology is that anybody who taps into the optical fibre can be detected and prevented.

The idea is to deploy the platform, giving you all the needed services. And just to give you a perspective, any mobile, any laptop has endpoint security, the quantum security now through secure VPN tunnels, you can land up to your data centre. Any application in the data centre you can securely access. So, nobody can break this quantum security either on the endpoints or in the communication network. This gives seamless end-toend access to this technology. Video conferencing also can be done with this box. The next step, of course, is how to take it to space. We are already working with the Indian Space Research Organization to build a satellite QKD. We are now trying it out with UAVs to extend it to the LEO and geostationary satellites. Ultimately, we should be able to deliver quantum-secure keys anytime, anywhere.

Startups face certain challenges. The procurement policy needs to be a little more startup-friendly. Regulatory requirements are very important because, without regulatory control, there will be a challenge to the adoption of this technology.

And, of course, it requires a lot of investment, especially satellite, QKD and integrated photonics, to miniaturise this technology into a chip.

MR. SUNIL GUPTA,

CEO & Co-Founder, QNu Labs

TECHNOLOGY

BANGALORE: A TECH HUB THEN AND NOW

From India’s IT capital to a globally leading technology hub, India’s Silicon Valley has evolved from an outsourcing hub to a vibrant ecosystem for tech ventures.

SYNERGIA FOUNDATION RE S E A RCH

T E A M

B

angalore hosts the largest number of highgrowth companies in India. It ranks fourth amongst Asian cities according to a Financial Times ranking of High Growth Companies in the Asia Pacific. Bangalore bagged $17bn worth of startup funding during 2019-21, far exceeding New Delhi’s $2bn, despite the latter’s flourishing startup scene. Karnataka has attracted the second largest share of FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) after Mumbai from October 2019 to December 2021.

Traditionally referred to as India’s Silicon Valley and startup capital, Bangalore has several factors working in its favour to make it a tech hub.

BIRTH OF A TECH HUB While India was once a largely agricultural and manufacturing hub known for cheap labour and low-cost land, its independence in 1947 marked a turning point in the country’s economic trajectory.

Bangalore was promoted as a modern industrial city and grew into a hub for public sector industries, particularly tech-intensive industries like aerospace, telecommunications, and space and defence - with substantial government investment. Giant Public Sector Units (PSUs) like Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL), the National

Bangalore now accompanies cities like London in the global list of high-growth startup hubs. In 2015, it was listed among the 20 cities in the world having the best startup ecosystems. In 2021, Bangalore nabbed more venture capital funding than Shanghai for the first time.

Aerospace Laboratories, Bharat Heavy Electronics, and Indian Telephone Industries (ITI), rooted their headquarters in Bangalore.

In 1984, the new computer and software policies ushered in the liberalization of hardware and software imports and exports. This encouraged IT (Information Technology) companies like Wipro and Infosys to shift to Bangalore and hire Indian programmers.

These IT companies laid the city’s tech foundations.

Infosys shifted its headquarters from Pune to Bangalore in the early 1980s, encouraging other IT companies to shift to Bangalore and creating thousands of jobs. Indian educational institutions were offering good courses in computer engineering, and the country was creating computer professionals on par with the rest of the world.

In 1985, Texas Instruments Inc. became the first MNC to set up a development centre in Bangalore, spearheading the city’s global foray. Following the ‘90s economic liberalization, India’s software exports rapid-

BANGALORE: A TECH HUB THEN AND NOW

49

BANGALORE

ly grew. Drawn by an English-speaking, well-educated workforce available at substantially lower wages, companies bulk-hired millions of workers. The resulting concentration of technical and scientific manpower led to the biotechnology boom in the 1990s and the city’s IT revolution in the early 2000s. Its climate, infrastructure and availability of human resources led many multinational corporations to follow suit and set up headquarters in the city. From being known as the Garden City, a pensioner’s paradise, Bangalore transformed into an IT hub. The IT and biotechnology companies set up Research and Development (R&D) centres, encouraged by the easily available R&D workforce.

From 2010 onwards, the city evolved from a back-office and outsourcing hub and moved up the value chain as global R&D moved there. The German business software company SAP, which established its centre in Bangalore in 1998, says there is a bit of Bangalore in every SAP product in the world. Multinationals like Microsoft, IBM (International Business Machines), Cisco, Oracle, and Intel have their centres here.

A GLOBAL EDGE The infrastructure and talent developed by the IT industry have now made Bangalore a hub for entrepreneurs and startups. In addition to global logistics giants like Amazon and Uber and IT companies like Accenture and Cognizant, Bangalore-based unicorns like Swiggy and Flipkart reflect its flourishing startup ecosystem.

Bangalore now accompanies cities like London in the global list of high-growth startup hubs. In 2015, it was listed among the 20 cities in the world having the best startup ecosystems. In 2021, Bangalore nabbed more venture capital funding than Shanghai for the first time.

A combination of factors has made the city a hub for tech businesses.

Education and R&D Institutions. Bangalore is home to numerous education and R&D institutions, which significantly support the tech ecosystem and the city’s

entrepreneurial and workforce talent. These institutes offer mentorship, expertise, and R&D facilities and sometimes adopt or purchase new products and services offered by tech startups. Institutes like the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Indian Institute of Management- Bangalore (IIMB), Institute of Bioinformatics and Applied Biotechnology (IBAB) and National Centre for Biological Sciences (NCBS) offer Technology Business Incubators (TBIs), especially for their students.

Government Regulations. Government support is a major factor: Karnataka was the first to have an Information Technology Policy in 1997, heralding the IT boom. With the more recent startup focus, the state launched the ‘Karnataka Startup Policy’ to stimulate the growth of technology startups and make their registering smoother and quicker.

Capable Workforce. A product of the flourishing IT sector, institutional support, and abundant MNCs, Bangalore’s skilled and highly educated workforce supplies plenty of engineers, software professionals, and “techies” compared to other metropolitan cities like Mumbai. According to a report by Nasscomm and consulting firm Zinnov, Bangalore has a quarter of India’s digital talent.

Startup Success Stories. VCs are increasingly getting attracted to inject funds into the city, encouraged by the success of its existing startups and unicorns like Ola and Flipkart. For instance, Ola, after shifting its base from Mumbai to Bangalore, scaled up to reach international markets like the UK and Australia and also received $3.8bn worth of funding from Indian and foreign investors.

The success of these unicorns buoys investor and employer confidence and encourages companies to employ and train thousands. Furthermore, former employees or founders of larger companies invest in younger startups, such as Flipkart’s co-founder, bringing a wealth of experience. This has also attracted foreign investors like Japanese multinational conglomerate SoftBank, which has invested $100bn through its Vision Fund into Indian tech startups, focusing on Bangalore.

BANGALORE: A TECH HUB THEN AND NOW

Conducive Environment. The pleasant weather is favourable to business. Bangalore is not vulnerable to natural disasters like floods (unlike Mumbai) or earthquakes. Further, the cost of living is reasonable, contributing to the city’s talent pull.

TOP TECH DOMAINS OF BANGALORE Bangalore is leading in several technology domains, ranging from aerospace, electronics, and biotechnology to emerging technology like artificial intelligence.

Information Technology. Bangalore accounts for about 40% of India’s IT exports. Whether software and app development or cloud computing, the city is known as the IT hub for good reason. Major IT companies in Bangalore include Wipro, Infosys, IBM, Oracle, Cisco, Mindtree, Capgemini, HCL (Hindustan Computers Limited), Intel, Microland, Microsoft, Intuit, Amazon, and Adobe. Bangalore has several Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and software or IT parks.

Most SEZs are built for IT and Information Technology Enabled Services (ITES) companies. The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology set up the Software Technology Parks of India (STPI), which has been a backbone for Karnataka’s software and hardware industry for the last three decades. Electronic City in Bangalore is one of India’s largest IT parks, focusing on software development, IT services, and electronics manufacturing. It boasts state-of-the-art infrastructure, research facilities, and incubation centres and hosts numerous tech companies and MNCs. Aerospace. Bangalore’s aerospace industry includes multinational giants, public sector stalwarts and innovative startups with established engineering offices and manufacturing facilities. Some of the top aerospace companies in the city include Boeing, HAL, Airbus, Collins Aerospace, Rolls Royce, and Asteria Aerospace.

Additionally, the city is home to the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), which is pursuing multidisciplinary R&D programmes for its major verticals — space transportation, space infrastructure, space applications, ground systems, and human space exploration.

Biotechnology. Bangalore is home to two major biotechnology clusters - groups of institutions that work together to offer resources like expertise, R&D facilities, advice on products and marketing, and incubation.

One is the Centre for Cellular and Molecular Platforms (C-Camp), which provides biologists mentorship and access to technology platforms for their research. Another cluster is located in Electronic City, near Biocon, a globally renowned biotech company. This sophisticated ecosystem in the city has nurtured several biotech and life sciences startups.

Electronics. Since public sector giants like ITI, Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL), and Hindustan Machine Tools (HMT) set up key manufacturing units in Bangalore decades ago, it has continued to be a nucleus for India’s electronics. For instance, BEL contributes a

50

significant portion of the semiconductors and television tubes produced in India, and its Bangalore units account for about 60 per cent of the country’s telecommunications equipment produced. Bangalore attracts leading players in the chip industry because of its established record in the electronics domain.

Texas Instruments set up a software export unit for computer-aided design and manufacture. Asea, a Swedish giant, has set up a unit manufacturing sophisticated electronic weighing machines and microprocessors. Major private manufacturers like Hewlett Packard (HP), the American computer titan, have set up a plant in Bangalore.

Scientific research institutes like IISc, the Electronics and Radar Development Establishment, and the Aeronautical Development Establishment have also contributed to the sector’s growth in the city.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Analytics. Bangalore is among the top five cities globally for AI, ranked fifth, according to a Harvard Business Review (HBR) study.

The study also found that the city has the second-largest AI talent pool in the world. Other cities topping the list were San Francisco, New York, and Boston.

The city’s rich IT ecosystem mushroomed into AI as the global multinationals that had established GCCs (global capability centres) began offering AI, analytics, and data science services.

The strong AI leadership contributed to AI startups attracting major investment from global tech titans, with founders, investors, and angel investors funding some of them. According to a 2019 study tracking funding for AI and data analytics startups in India, the highest increase in year-on-year analytics revenues for an Indian city was in Bangalore, which witnessed an increase of 37%. U.S.-Bangalore AI startups, including Automation Anywhere and Noodle.AI, bagged significant funding.

Assessment Bangalore’s skilled workforce, supporting institutions, experienced senior professionals or founders, established IT companies and conducive environment combine to make a thriving ecosystem for tech companies. This, in turn, attracts further investment in the city’s startups and supportive government measures, fuelling further innovation and successful ventures, and encouraging the cycle.

The city’s strong foundation in established technology sectors like IT, electronics, aerospace, and biotechnology has provided a ready platform for its foray into more recent technologies like AI and data analytics, making it a leading funding destination and breeding ground for these new technologies.

HEALTH CARE

A SERIOUS THREAT?

As COVID cases rise in India, questions are being asked how real is the threat?

Sambratha Shetty is the COO at Synergia Foundation and holds a Masters’ in Science from the University of Greenwich, UK.

T

he recent emergence of the JN.1 subvariant of Omicron has cast a shadow of uncertainty over the pandemic’s resurgence.

While it’s still too early to declare a new wave, JN.1 strains’ rapid rise has rightfully sparked concern. Previously nestled within the BA.2.86 lineage, JN.1 has quickly outgrown its parent, becoming the dominant descendent.

This rapid increase in prevalence, evident in its growing share of reported cases globally, has prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) to classify it as a separate “variant of interest” (VOI).

UNDERSTANDING THE JN.1 VARIANT The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) first acknowledged the JN.1 subvariant in September 2023. By the end of October, JN.1 constituted less than 0.1% of SARS-CoV-2 viruses, while the prevalence of BA.2.86 increased. However, the current scenario reveals that BA.2.86 only makes up approximately 1.6% of circulating variants in the United States. Its close relative, JN.1, has now replaced BA.2.86 and likely accounts for 15% to 29% of circulating variants in the U.S., making it the fastest-growing variant, as reported by the CDC. BA.2.86, originating from the BA.2 lineage, (subvariant of Omicron), which dominated COVID-19 cases two years ago and has since evolved into various subvariants. It boasts over 30 mutations compared to the XBB.1.5 Omicron subvariant, the dominant strain for most of 2023. The CDC notes only one change between

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) first acknowledged the JN.1 subvariant in September 2023. By the end of October, JN.1 constituted less than 0.1% of SARS-CoV-2 viruses, while the prevalence of BA.2.86 increased.

JN.1 and BA.2.86 in the spike protein. While the global case count remains relatively low compared to previous surges, the swift expansion of JN.1 raises concerns.

It has a significant impact in the United States and the United Kingdom, constituting 15-29% and 10-15% of new cases, respectively. Smaller clusters have also been reported in China and Singapore, emphasizing the need for international collaboration to monitor and address this evolving variant.

India, with its vast population and complex epidemiological dynamics, presents a unique situation. As of December 26, 2023, India has reported approximately 69 confirmed cases of JN.1, concentrated primarily in Goa and Kerala. Although seemingly small compared to the overall COVID-19 caseload, the rapid growth potential of JN.1 necessitates close monitoring. It is crucial to recognize that JN.1 emerges amidst ongoing COVID-19 activity in India, with over 4,174 active cases as of December 26, 2023, underscoring the importance of continued vigilance against the virus, including emerging variants like JN.1.

DOES THE JN.1 COVID-19 VARIANT EXHIBIT INCREASED CONTAGIOUSNESS? The public health risk associated with JN.1 and BA.2.86 variants is relatively low for severe illness compared to other variants. However, with the winter, trav-

A SERIOUS THREAT?

el, and holiday season underway, there are heightened opportunities for the virus to spread, as observed in the past couple of years. The CDC will continue monitoring the JN.1 subvariant. While reports indicate that JN.1 is more transmissible than other circulating variants, it is unlikely to reach the levels observed during the initial COVID-19 outbreak in spring 2020 or those of the other Omicron variants.

WHAT ARE THE SYMPTOMS OF JN.1 AND BA.2.86?

At this time, it is not possible to know whether JN.1 or BA.2.86 produce different symptoms than other Omicron subvariants. Generally, though, there have been similar symptoms across COVID-19 variants. The common symptoms of other COVID-19 variants and subvariants include:

Ultimately, the nature and severity of symptoms vary and depend, in part, on an individual’s immunity stemming from vaccination and previous infections.

WHAT TREATMENT OPTIONS EXIST FOR JN.1, BA.2.86, AND OTHER COVID-19 VARIANTS? The CDC, after analyzing the mutation profile of the Omicron subvariant BA.2.86, indicates that currently available COVID-19 treatments remain effective.

These treatments include the COVID-19 oral antivirals Nirmatrelvir, Molnupiravir for mild to moderate cases, and Remdesivir for severe cases, as per the CDC’s recommendations. Ongoing monitoring by the CDC will prompt updates to treatment options as more data on the impact of JN.1 and BA.2.86 becomes available.

INDIAN SCENARIO

EXPERT INSIGHTS

52

Gifty Immanuel MD, PhD, FRCP, FIDSA, CMO, Synergia

UNDER-DETECTION AND UNDER-REPORTING OF COVID-19 Two important factors play a decisive role in the accurate estimation of COVID-19 cases. First, the increase in the availability of Rapid Antigen Kits (RAT) makes it an easy home testing option.

With no requirement to report these results, the positive tests are not captured in the national registry or surveillance programs. It is reasonable to infer that the officially reported cases are the ones that have sought medical attention, were hospitalized, or have done the RT-PCR test. This is an epidemiological gray zone in the estimation of COVID-19 cases within any given population. Further, with the Omicron variants, there is amelioration in the clinical severity of the disease, a lesser need for hospitalization, and a lowering of mortality rates. Understandably, most people ignore symptoms or self-medicate, resulting in less central testing and follow-up. For these reasons, the projected COVID-19 positive rates may not be a true reflection of the actual number of cases in the population.

Ratings & Research foresee minimal disruption to economic activities. Unlike the national lockdown of the first wave or state-imposed restrictions during the second wave, the Omicron surge saw no nationwide lockdowns, suggesting a potentially similar approach if JN.1 doesn’t pose extreme risks. While the December 20th market dip was attributed to multiple factors, including rising COVID-19 cases, quick recovery indicates investor resilience.

Analysts believe the market may react with caution but avoid significant corrections if hospitalizations remain low. Investment Managers emphasize the need for continuous monitoring to assess the variant’s spread and fatality rate, which will ultimately determine market nervousness. They highlight India’s improved preparedness to tackle outbreaks compared to the past, providing some market reassurance.

Assessment

The current number of JN.1 cases in India is still small, making it difficult to draw definitive conclusions about its potential impact. Initial reports from states like Kerala haven’t indicated any significant increase in hospitalization or severe cases associated with JN.1.

The Indian government has stepped up surveillance and genomic sequencing efforts to track the spread of the variant and monitor its evolution.

If the spread intensifies, contact-intensive industries like travel, hospitality, and entertainment will likely face challenges. However, most travel and tourism businesses report ongoing bookings despite the case rise, suggesting potential consumer confidence. The economic impact of JN.1 appears uncertain, dependent on the variant’s trajectory and the government’s response.

While the rapid spread of JN.1 warrants close monitoring, avoiding unnecessary panic is important. The available data suggests that the variant might not pose a significant threat, especially considering India’s high vaccination coverage and prior exposure to Omicron subvariants. While the immediate health impact of JN.1 remains uncertain, its potential economic implications have also sparked discussions.

Most of the Companies in India demonstrate preparedness with existing hybrid work structures, safety protocols, and revamped office layouts to maintain social distancing. This adaptability bodes well for managing potential disruptions.

Experts predict various scenarios depending on the trajectory of the outbreak: If JN.1 remains a mild outbreak, economists like Devendra Kumar Pant of India

Despite the uncertainties, India’s experience managing previous waves and high vaccination coverage, access to antivirals offers a foundation for cautious optimism. However, continued vigilance and data collection are essential.

ANALYSIS

2024 - GLOBAL POLLS YEAR

With the year witnessing a host of elections, the impact of these elections on geopolitics is being hotly debated worldwide.

Diya Celine Simon Research Associate in Synergia Foundation with a Bachelor’s in Media and Communications, English Literature and Psychology.

2

024 will be remembered in history as a “Year of Elections.” The statistics are stunning- over four billion voters (more than half the global population) will be casting their votes involving over 50 per cent of the global GDP, and some of the biggest global actors will be undergoing the electoral exercise- India and the U.S. (both assessed as a ‘flawed democracies’

by Economist’s Intelligence Unit with a score of 7.0 and 7.9 respectively), EU and Russia to name a few. All in all, over 70 plus countries will be conducting elections, ranging from general and parliamentary to regional and presidential.

Naturally, this could result in a global shift, especially considering the geopolitical and economic impact within one short calendar year. The return of President Trump may create altogether different ripples in the larger global village, and if, by a far shot, Mr Putin is democratically replaced, will it mean an end to the war in Ukraine and its consequential disarray?

THE LINE UP How will the 2024 polls impact the global landscape of many continents? The least surprises are from Iran, Russia, Pakistan and other countries with no credible opposition. Expectations are that many Iranians will boycott the vote on March 1 because more than 25 per

Democratic elections for some countries with restrictions around freedom of speech will impact the fairness and sincerity of the results. For example, open democracies impose restrictions to curb threats like fake information, insurgent activity, hate speech and public disturbances. Pro-Palestinian activism noted global algorithmic influences on online protests, resulting in polarised social coverage. In the same sense, the authenticity of election campaigns in democracies across the globe is under question. cent of the opposition candidates to the existing conservative party have been eliminated.

Closer home, Bangladesh, concludes its election with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League government securing an absolute majority, securing her fifth record term as the chief executive. An Awami League government in Bangladesh is crucial to India’s push for the ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy. The U.S.’s new visa policy put India in a tricky situation as denying visas to those who obstruct the Bangladesh election process comes across as a strategic power move. It reinforces that ruling parties must seek geopolitical wins to protect their global positions through-

2024 - GLOBAL POLLS YEAR

out 2024, and the re-election of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is a win for India.

54

India’s tourist hotspot neighbour, Maldives, has recently shown inclinations towards China, which strains India to maintain a diplomatic front.

For the United States, there are speculations that former President Donald Trump could be in for a comeback in the U.S. presidential elections set for the end of the year. However, a rarely used amendment - Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, bars those who have “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” against the country from holding federal office, is at play. Trump has already been removed as an eligible candidate in Colorado and Maine.

China’s interest in the Indian Ocean Region is quite evident, and this possible new alliance could foster some unwanted strategic moves for India. An election that ran successfully on the slogan of “India Out” to bring to power an overtly pro-China and anti-India dispensation does not portend well for regional stability.

However, his lawyers persevere to maintain his name on the ballots. In the second week of January 2024, Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis were out for blood at the first one-on-one U.S. Republican Presidential Debate 2024 at Drake University, Iowa.

Pakistan is scheduled to follow next month, provided its all-powerful military allows the event to happen and not pull out the rug whose ends are firmly in its hands. In Pakistan, so far, elections are scheduled on February 8, but there have been two resolutions passed in the parliament urging the Election Commission of Pakistan to “postpone the polls to a mutually agreeable date that would ensure free and fair elections and remove existing hurdles.”

They mainly went at each other rather than proposing national alternatives. Meanwhile, Trump entertained a small-town television channel instead of the debate. It sparks intrigue as he may have a different election plan in motion to stay within the game, and the nation’s voters can only hope campaign candidates minimise fighting against each other and begin proposing plans to resurrect their country.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is running for his third consecutive term in power, but there is competition from a newly formed 28-party opposition called INDIA - Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance. Modi’s re-election will impact India’s tie-ups with the West, especially in Indo-U.S. relations, the former having India as an ally. India is positioned in a geopolitical sweet spot as tensions between the U.S. and China simmer.

Staying in Asia, the results of Taiwan’s election on January 13 were on predictable lines, even if not to Beijing’s liking. Lai Ching-te of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is Taiwan’s new president-elect, raising concerns that the victory portends greater tensions with China. In fact, Beijing has taken a shot at all the countries that have formally congratulated Lai Ching-te. It is commonly understood that Beijing was favouring the return of pro-unity Kuomintang.

Indonesia, the most populous country in Southeast Asia, will go to the polls in February. It is expected that a centre-left party is likely to win the legislative and presidential elections, and its current policies are likely to remain unchanged.

Africa is another continent with the highest number of elections set this year, 18 countries in total. Seven African leaders in the “belt of instability” between Nigeria and Sudan were toppled by their military, as noted by the International Crisis Group. The international community at large has tried to stem this tide against democracy, but so far, there has been little success. As per the Economist magazine, North Africa has the lowest score (3.3) in its Democracy Index, followed by sub-Saharan Africa (4.1). South Africa will go to the polls this year, and the ANC is expected to retain power.

The United Kingdom elections are predicted to be conducted mid-year, around May. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will face three electoral tests - when he calls for the polls, the small boat regulation to curb undocumented immigrants and pressure to improve public health service concerns. These will seal his political competence and resilience against the opposition candidates. The UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak looks to seal a comprehensive free trade agreement with India in the coming months before the polls and his return to 10 Downing Street would be welcomed by New Delhi.

The political composition after the EU’s 2024 elections set from 6-9 June is unclear, considering there are no pan-European Polls and 36 individual countries have their elections set this year. But if the EU elections occurred tomorrow, the two dominant contesting parties would be the left-centre Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Union Parliament (S&D) and the right-centre Group of the European People’s Party (EPP).

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 25-year-long position in power and predicted re-election on March 17 is as good as taken. Ukraine is also due to elect a president in 2024. Volodymyr Zelensky, the incumbent, may seek the comfort of a popular vote despite the martial law powers he constitutionally enjoys.

THE HEALTH OF GLOBAL DEMOCRACY After all, elections are the most visible symptom of the state of democracy of any country. Yet, as a January 10 article in the prestigious Times magazine states, elections are no guarantee of democracy...Even fullblown tyrants crave the legitimacy that, in the modern era, can be provided only by the ballot box—margins of victory doubling as one more tool of intimidation.

2024 - GLOBAL POLLS YEAR

55

2024: THE SUPER ELECTION YEAR

Countries where a national election is/was held in 2024

According to the U.S.-based non-profit research centre, The Freedom House, global freedom has declined for the 17th consecutive year. Survey statistics have shown overall dissatisfaction with democratic implementation in the West (Europe and the U.S.) and a common belief that the current democracy favours the rich and powerful while subserving the rest. The Indian Election Commission (IEC) has been open about its challenges in curbing election fraud, particularly with booth capturing, buying, and multiple voting.

Democratic elections for some countries with restrictions around freedom of speech will impact the fairness and sincerity of the results. For example, open democracies impose restrictions to curb threats like fake information, insurgent activity, hate speech and public disturbances.

Pro-Palestinian activism noted global algorithmic influences on online protests, resulting in polarised social coverage. In the same sense, the authenticity of election campaigns in democracies across the globe is under question.

Can we take for granted the definition of democracy cited by Abraham Lincoln: ‘of the people, by the people and for the people?’ From the restrictions and challenges faced by political parties and the voting public in terms of freedom of expression and political choices even in well-established democracies, let alone authoritarian or hybrid states, 2024 could see increasing threats to democracy.

New definitions are being attributed to democracy, especially by authoritarian states like China, who claim that the democracy being practised in the liberal West

is “hollow” and tilted in favour of the few and the privileged. Undoubtedly, changing circumstances call for a better understanding of what true democracy really stands for, of and by the people.

A case in point is India, undeniably the world’s largest democracy. India carries out elections through a distinctive biometric process, which has multiple socio-economic implications. India’s cultural, ethnic and religious diversities complicate the election process, but the technology-integrated method makes elections more competitive, promoting national growth. Yet within India, strong voices are urging that a switch to the traditional system of voting through the ballot paper should take place as many do not trust the system with an electronic voting system that can be rigged.

An increasingly important factor that is rising in all elections is the younger generation’s role. Historically, the political elites tended to ignore this segment of the electorate; now, they do so at their electoral peril. The younger voting generation seems apathetic to political strategies that neglect the one outstanding concern global warming.

Without changes in foreign policies and investments towards a greener economy, the global political landscape will continue to face resistance from voters.

It will test legitimate future-oriented governing capacity and its aptitude to maintain continuity in policy relations during systemic reforms.

THE INDIAN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE No analysis of global polls will be complete if we do not analyse the impact of the 2024 Election results on

2024 - GLOBAL POLLS YEAR

this most populous nation and a rising economic power.

The 2024 Indian Spring elections will impact domestic and foreign investments resulting from business regulations, fiscal policies, and foreign relations alterations.

While elections create volatility in the short term, the long-term effects are determined by the economic reforms and policies the ruling party implements.

In saying this, climate change will play a significant role in determining the electoral outcomes. Policy continuity, economic reforms and stability ensure the sustainability of foreign investments and control of inflationary trends, which the next government will have to bear in mind as it governs India for the next five years.

For one, the 2024 elections should not lead to changes in Indian fiscal policies, trade agreements and commerce, which could cause foreign investors to look at more steady economies with lower volatility.

Two primary nations of the GCC, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have exceptional ties with India. The Outlook points towards the attractive and digitalised $3.5 trillion economy and PM Narendra Modi’s efforts to maintain these relationships. India’s growing economy has attracted foreign investors and redirected cash flow to someone other than China.

In addition, fiscal deficits are a common trend closer to election periods as parties begin to invest in public projects and campaign promises to win their voter’s confidence. If India wants to remain strategic and steady in the game, fiscal discipline around election time will be more attractive to foreign investors. It will maintain confidence in the uniquely digitised economy and keep the risk of currency inflation at bay.

But taking into account that 2024 will be the year of innumerable changes across the global markets, the more certainty about the rules of the game, interest rates, market movement, government regulations and policies, the more supportive the election period can be for businesses, foreign investors, and existing markets.

SECURITY CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES The Israel-Hamaz war has raised exemplary political sentiments globally. The War may go on throughout 2024, and over 50 conflicts in the Red Sea propels fears of a full-blown Middle East conflict. The U.S.-Israel partnership will be a definite factor in influencing voter choices in the U.S. Similarly, military casualties from the Ukraine-Russia conflict have escalated to around half a million, making it harder for the public to differentiate humans from politics.

Taiwan’s election results will determine the US’s next step. The U.S. has welcomed the results and will be encouraged to redirect its focus on the Pacific region to push its limits with China. This will definitely make the region even more volatile.

All these have implications for the global economy, geopolitical alliance, trade, investments and public welfare. Bystanding countries deliberately abstaining from

56

taking a clear stance to protect their geopolitical tie-ups will bear the brunt by the turn of the elections. Voters all around the world are witness to war crimes through social media, making the elections more critical with much higher stakes.

Events across these conflict zones and the subsequent response from a country could significantly impact election results, meaning that timing will be critical throughout the year. However, on a humanitarian level, the global population cannot ignore the civilian casualties at the hands of politics.

The new era of advanced technologies like AI has also become a real threat to a free and fair electoral outcome. There have already been instances of DeepFake content that manipulates public opinion.

Recently, an ad campaign on the Republican National Committee’s YouTube channel depicted an AI-generated video of U.S. President Joe Biden celebrating his re-election, followed by riots and broken banks around the U.S.-Mexico border.

While the RNC’s ad campaign specified that it was a product of DeepFake, most frauds conceal this fact to further ideologies and propaganda, a lot of which is expected this year.

Protecting our digitally naive population is a humanitarian duty to ensure that even if idealistic promises are made, at least they know who is making them.

RECOMMENDATIONS • 2024 will be a trying year in democratic history, with authoritarian governments attempting to steer the direction of global governance to autocratic dictatorship despite its generally unpopular beliefs. Nations globally will have to exercise steadiness in policy and economic reforms and gain geopolitical wins to prove their competence while addressing threats ranging from climate change to AI-driven fraudulence.

• New-generation voters must push past their political apathy to drive the electoral outcomes. Shortterm volatility may extend to the coming year as predicted changes will have a global impact, and foreign investors and industries will have to be wary of tactical movements by geopolitical superpowers to protect the global economy from crashing to an all-time low.

• There is a sense of despondency in some quarters that feels that the fight for democracy is futile because of its halfhearted implementation, while autocracy fundamentally is what it is. If democracy has to survive, it must evolve from idealistic to realistic.

• Voters must realise the weaponisation of social media to alter electoral outcomes in 2024. Content credentials are a preliminary effort to verify relevant and factual information on voters to base their decisions, and fact-checking is key. Digital manipulation of perception is the biggest threat to electoral democracy.

INSIGHTS is a strategic affairs, foreign policy, science and technology magazine that provides nonpartisan analysis of contemporary issues based on real-time information.

To subscribe, sambratha@synergiagroup.in ; +91 80 4197 1000 https://www.synergiafoundation.org

Be Resilient Just like us.

UPCOMING FORUMS: ROUND TABLE ON MIDDLE EAST

SYNERGIA - RIAC ROUNDTABLE MOSCOW

SYNERGIA JANUARY 2024 | MONTHLY EDITION

TECH SEMINAR BANGALORE