30
20 20 15 15 10 10
0 0
Lincoln Lincoln
Rolleston Rolleston
Kaiapoi Kaiapoi
West West Melton Melton
Tai Tapu Tai Tapu
Templeton Templeton
Sumner Sumner
Prebbleton Prebbleton
Lyttelton Lyttelton
Governors Governors BayBay
Belfast Belfast
Harewood Harewood
Hornby Hornby
Halswell Halswell
Burwood Burwood
Bishopdale Bishopdale
NewNew Brighton Brighton
Burnside Burnside
Sockburn Sockburn
Middleton Middleton
Papanui Papanui
Mairehau Mairehau
Cashmere Cashmere
Waltham Waltham
Woolston Woolston
Merivale Merivale
Richmond Richmond
Avon Avon Loop Loop
Hagley Hagley Park Park
5 5
25 25
8000 8000
20 20
6000 6000
15 15
Relationship between Population Density and Distance from CBD 10 90
5 5
Lincoln Lincoln
Rolleston Rolleston
Kaiapoi Kaiapoi
West West Melton Melton
Tai Tapu Tai Tapu
Templeton Templeton
Sumner Sumner
Prebbleton Prebbleton
Lyttelton Lyttelton
Governors Governors BayBay
Belfast Belfast
Harewood Harewood
Halswell Halswell
Hornby Hornby
Burwood Burwood
Bishopdale Bishopdale
30
NewNew Brighton Brighton
Sockburn Sockburn
Burnside Burnside
Middleton Middleton
Mairehau Mairehau
Papanui Papanui
40
Cashmere Cashmere
50
Waltham Waltham
60
20 0
Woolston Woolston
Merivale Merivale
POPULATION DENSITY (PPL/HEC)
Hagley Hagley Park Park
Avon Avon Loop Loop
70
0 15
10
5
10
Lincoln
Rolleston
West Melton
Kaiapoi
Tai Tapu
Templeton
Prebbleton
Sumner
Governors Bay
Belfast
Lyttelton
Harewood
Hornby
Halswell
Burwood
New Brighton
Sockburn
Bishopdale
0 Burnside
Middleton
Papanui
Mairehau
Woolston
Cashmere
Waltham
Merivale
Richmond
Avon Loop
Hagley Park
Relationship Between Population and Distance from CBD 0 Cathedral Square
Den-City | Analysis
Distance to CBD (KM) Poly (2010 Population Density) Poly (2010 Population Density) estimateddensity 2030 Population canPoly see(Pre thatuake population peakedDensity) at Poly (Post (Pre uake Poly uakeestimated estimated2030 2030Population PopulationDensity) Density)
We the suburbs just outside the fringe of the CBD Poly (Post uake estimated 2030 Population Density) Equations fortrend Polynomial Trendlines (around 5km). The line initially declines Equations Polynomial Trendlines y 0 0109 3for 0 4981 2 5 5593 9 2802 as it moves away from the CBD, but then it rises y 0 0109 3 0 4981 2 5 5593 9 2802 y 0 0116 3 0 5126 2 5 3156 15 66 9 againyas0it0116 starts3 0to5126 move2to5 3156 the neighboring 15 66 9 y 0 0162 3 0 7504 2 9 0736 0 255 townships (around 15-20km). The earthquake y 0 0162 3 0 7504 2 9 0736 0 255 further emphasized the population trends, and the predicted shift in density of the population to move further west. From the trend line we can see that the population does not follow the typical trend for urban city predicted urban sprawl situation sprawl.Typical Christchurch’s population seems to be Typical predicted urban sprawl situation 2010 Population ( ) spread out quite evenly but with a tendency to grow 2010 Population ( ) uake estimated Population ( ) because of as youPre move away from2030 the CBD. Again Pre uake estimated 2030 Population ( ) Post u ake estimated 2030 Population ( ) trend will the earthquake; it is predicted that this Post uake estimated 2030 Population ( ) Distance to CBD (KM) be emphasized further; and that the population will Distance to CBD (KM) shift further away from the Poly (2010 Population ( )) CBD and more towards Poly Population ( ))2030 Population ( )) Poly (2010 (Pre uake estimated the suburbs. Poly Poly (Pre (Post uake uakeestimated estimated2030 2030Population Population( ( )))) Poly (Post uake estimated 2030 Population ( ))
Equations for Polynomial Trendlines
yEquations 0 5103 3for 24 Polynomial 071 2 336 Trendlines 62 1799 4 y 0 5103 3 24 071 2 336 62 1799 4 predicted urban sprawl2situation yTypical 0 7647 3 31 642 376 87 2562 8 y 0 7647 3 31 642 2 376 87 2562 8 Population y2010 1 4507 3 Density 68 308(PPL/HEC) 2 964 51 0 3806 y 1 4507 3 68 308 2 964 51 0 3806 Pre uake estimated 2030 Population Density (PPL/HEC) Post
uake estimated 2030 Population Density (PPL/HEC)
Distance to CBD (KM) Poly (2010 Population Density) Poly (Pre uake estimated 2030 Population Density) Poly (Post
20
242
ROM CBD (KM)
25
80
Cathedral Cathedral Square Square
0 0
30 10
100
DISTANCE
4000 4000
DISTANCE DISTANCEROM ROM CBDCBD (KM) (KM)
30 30
10000 10000
Richmond Richmond
POPULATION POPULATION
Relationship between Population and Distance from CBD Relationship between Population and Distance from CBD
2000 2000
Post-Quake 2030 Estimate
DISTANCE DISTANCEROM ROM CBDCBD (KM)(KM)
25 25
Relationship Between Population Density and Distance from CBD 12000 12000
Population Overlay
Relationship between Population Density and Distance from CBD Relationship between Population Density and Distance from CBD 30
Cathedral Cathedral Square Square
Post-Quake 2030 Estimate Population Density
POPULATION POPULATION DENSITY DENSITY (PPL/HEC) (PPL/HEC)
Population Density Overlay
100 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0
POPULATION DENSITY AND DISTANCE TO THE CBD These diagrams illustrate the overall urban sprawl pattern for Christchurch, as well as the underlying population trends in relation to the distance from the CBD. Comparisons of population trends and Typical predicted urban sprawl situation distance to the CBD were made to understand the Typical predicted urban sprawl situation 2010 Population nature of the urban Density fabric (PPL/HEC) of Christchurch. This was 2010 Population Density (PPL/HEC) done toPretestuake if there was2030 an underlying population estimated Population Density (PPL/HEC) Pre uake Density (PPL/HEC) trend that couldestimated explain2030 the Population sprawl pattern of Post uake estimated 2030 Population Density (PPL/HEC) Christchurch in more depth. using aDensity polynomial Post uake estimated 2030By Population (PPL/HEC) Distance to CBD (KM) equation we could identify emerging trends.
uake estimated 2030 Population Density)
Equations for Polynomial Trendlines y 0 0109 3 0 4981 2 5 5593
9 2802
y 0 0116 3 0 5126 2 5 3156
15 66 9
y 0 0162 3 0 7504 2 9 0736
0 255
These These spraw spraw we pe we pe relatio relatio sons o sons om were were m fabric fabricw This Thispo w ing ing po patter patter a tren a bytren usi by thisusi tr this tr
Relat Relat and D and D
om r t om r t densit densit fringe fringe starts starts starte starte neighb neighb CBD a CBD not ata not at urban urban only fu only fu is pred is pred furthe furthe
Relat Relat Dista Dista
om r t om r nt does does n spraw spraw spread spread grow a grow a becau becau this tr These diagrams could this tril popula sprawl pattern forand Christ popula m we perceive the underly and m
relation to the distance sons of population trend were made to understan fabric of Christchurch This was the done to tes ing population trend tha pattern of Christchurch a trend line that emerge by using a polynomial eq this trend
Relationship betwee and Distance from C
om r the trend line we c density peaked at the su fringe of the CBD (aroun starts to decline as it mo started to rise again as