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Planes, Trains and Automobiles Governments around the world regularly weigh the pros and cons of infrastructure investments and recent research shows that the air travel market share can shift dramatically, particularly when high-speed rail is a viable option. by Katie Sehl | Illustration Francisco Andriani TOO FAST TO FLY

3 HRS.

“Rail market share quickly decreases when travel time is below 1 hour (when road transport is much more attractive to passengers) and over 3 hours (since it would imply a distance that could be covered faster by a plane).” CAMPOS, ET AL, “THE COST OF BUILDING AND OPERATING A HIGH SPEED RAIL LINE” (2007)

RACE AGAINST TIME [HSR | AIR]

MADRID—SEVILLE [530 km]

These proposed high-speed rail routes promise a higher rail market share by shortening journey time. Predicted market share was calculated based on an equation created by Peter Jorritsma from the Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis.

MARKET SHARE BEFORE 2002

CURRENT TIME: 4h 32’

HSR TIME: 2h 10’

67% | 33%

80% | 20%

AUTO

MONTREAL—TORONTO (542 km)

%

40%

35

AI

R

While commercial aircraft can achieve faster travel speeds, check-in, baggage handling, security, boarding and transportation to the destination’s downtown hub often increase total journey time.

NEW YORK—WASHINGTON (362 km)

25% TRAIN

CURRENT TIME: 2h 45’

HSR TIME: 1h 36’

77% | 23%

88% | 12%

MARKET SHARE AFTER 2002 (HSR)

8%

BOSTON—NEW YORK (306 km)

27%

AIR

AU

T

O

CURRENT TIME: 3h 30’

HSR TIME: 1h 24’

54% | 46%

89% | 11%

LISBON—PORTO (292 km) HSR TIME: 1h 15’

67% | 33%

91% | 9%

65

CURRENT TIME: 3h 25’

%

24

october - november 2014

HI

GH

SPEE

D RAIL

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