PLAYER STRATEGY by
PHIL HELLMUTH JR.
Phil Hellmuth Jr. is a 13-time World Series of Poker Champion, leading all other poker players in the world. He is the author of two New York Times best sellers, and his latest book, “Deal Me In” is also widely popular. Visit PhilHellmuth.com to check out his latest blog, clothing line and exclusive poker tips and stories. This tip column is an excerpt from his Best Selling book “Phil Hellmuth’s Texas Hold’em” found on Amazon and in bookstores around the world.
“POT ODDS SAY, “CLOSE YOUR EYES AND CALL”
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POKER: Making the Correct Play Here is a familiar situation, involving Jim (the jackal) and Jerry (unknown profile). You have J-J and you have made it three bets over the top of Jim’s two bets (re-raised) before the flop. Jerry calls you from the big blind, and the flop is A♦10♠-4♦. Jerry bets out on the flop, Jim calls the bet, and you raise it, to find out what they really have. Both players call your raise, and then 6♠ comes off on the turn and they both check to you. You bet out, thinking your J-J is still the best hand, and they both call again. The last card is K♦, for a final board of A♦-10♠4♦-6♠-K♦. Jerry bets out and Jim calls. The K♦ was probably the worst possible card for your hand, other than 10♦, because now you can’t beat a flush, a straight, or a pair of kings. Jerry probably has you beaten, but how about Jim? It looks to me as if Jim has you beaten here as well. In this situation, I would put Jim on K-Q , which makes a pair of kings for him on the end. Think about it. If Jim has a flush, then he would have raised on the end. If Jim has kings and tens (another possibility, given the way the hand unfolded), then he would probably have raised on the flop himself, with his pair of tens. Whatever the case may be, it looks as if Jim has you beaten. It is true that there is already $125 ($45 + $30 + $30 + $20) in the pot, so you need to be over 92 percent sure that you are beaten before you decide to fold. But given this situation, I would have to fold, because I would be convinced that both players had me beaten. Both players expect you to call on the end, and the chances that both of them are trying to bluff you therefore seem very remote to me. Now suppose the last card is 6♣, for A♦-10♠4♦-6♠-6♣, and now Jerry bets out into you and Jim folds. This bet would seem very suspicious to me, and I would call it very quickly. I would be thinking, “Why did Jerry decide to bet right here and now? I don’t think the six helped him, so he’s either bluffing or holding an ace.” If I am facing an either-or situation and getting this kind of pot odds, I’m going to call without hesitation. Now let’s suppose again that the last card is 6♣, for A♦-10♠-4♦-6♠-6♣, and now both opponents check to you. Do you bet here or check? If you bet here, you have to be hoping that either Jerry or Jim will call you with a pair of tens or worse.
I wouldn’t be worried about Jim in this case, but Jerry would concern me a little bit. (Could Jerry have an ace with no kicker, like A-2, A-3, or A-5, which would explain why he just called on the flop?) This “value bet” that you are considering making (a bet you make believing that it will earn slightly more than it will lose, over the long run) is one that needs a little bit of reading ability as well (a little finesse). If you decide to bet, then that is fine; if you decide to check, that is fine too. I would bet it myself unless I felt strongly that Jerry had me beaten. Pot Odds Say, “Close Your Eyes and Call” Suppose you are holding K-K, and you three-bet an elephant before the flop. The flop then comes down 5♦-6♠-7♥, and now you make it four bets (a raising war on the flop). The next card off is 10♠ and he checks and then calls your bet. Now 8♠ comes off on the river, for 5♦-6♠-7♥-10♠-8♠, and the elephant bets out into you. In this case, any four or nine makes a straight, but you call the bet quickly because you can still beat a lot of hands. The pot odds are heavily in your favor for a call here- there is already $7 from the blinds that folded, $30 from before the flop, $40 on the slop, $20 from fourth street, and $10 from the elephant’s bet on the end. One $10 call to win $107! I’d call quickly as well. Even if the A♦ comes off on the river, for 5♦-6♠-7♥-10♠-A♦, and the elephant bets out into you. I’d call quickly here as well, because of the pot odds (there is a lot of money in this pot). Calling Two Bets on the River The question here is whether or not you should call on the river when calling costs you two big bets. In general, when you have to call two bets (someone bets and then someone else raises) on the river in a Hold’em pot, it is usually a good idea to fold. Usually, the only hands that you can beat on the end, when it costs you two bets just to call, are bluffs. You will rarely see an experienced player bluff raise on the river in low-limit Hold’em because it is just not a very profitable play. To return to a familiar example, assume the hand has been played out among Jim, Jerry, and you, as detailed above. When Jerry bets out into A♦-10♠-4♦-6♠-K♦ and Jim raises, it’s a good idea to exit stage left with your modest little J-J. G A M I N G A N D D E S T I N AT I O N S . C O M |
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