On the Wrong Road A Massive Program of Highway Widening Will Increase Driving in Northern Virginia Faster Than Population Growth April 2022 Executive Summary The Northern Virginia Transportation Authority (NVTA) will be making multi-billion dollar decisions this year on the region’s transportation future, making updates to both its TransAction long-range plan and six-year funding program. However, most of its planned projects will fuel huge levels of additional driving, on top of the driving anticipated from population growth. While the NVTA also funds many transit, pedestrian and bicycle projects, the effectiveness of these investments would be undermined by the 1,200 lane-miles of new asphalt in the agency’s adopted TransAction 2040 plan. Analysis by the Coalition for Smarter Growth of NVTA’s proposed projects using the Rocky Mountain Institute’s State Highway Induced Frequency of Travel calculator, developed based on decades of traffic research, shows that: •
NVTA’s massive road building program would grow Northern Virginia’s arterial highway network faster than its population, adding 32% more lane miles compared to forecast regional population growth of 23% by 2040. Loudoun County would expand its arterial highways at a rate over 1.5 times its population growth, and Prince William at a rate three times faster than its population growth. Fairfax and Manassas would also build highway miles faster than their population growth.
Existing and Proposed Lanes of Principal Arterial Highway Miles
Source: NVTA 2017 TransAction plan and CSG analysis; existing lane miles from RMI SHIFT calculator, 2019 FHWA data; population growth 2019 to 2040 from U.S. Census Bureau 2019 estimates and MWCOG Draft Round 9.2 Cooperative Forecast.
1