GREEK OCEAN-GOING SHIPPING
imports from Russia and Ukraine; Russia & Ukraine account for 44% of total African wheat imports and 39% of the imports by the world’s least developed countries. Apart from the price increases, there is risk of food insecurity crises in some regions. With regard to the effects of the crisis in transport, it is estimated that commodity supplies from both countries will be reduced. With Russian airspace closed, this will impact global air freight capacity; if 1.5 million containers that were shipped by rail from China to Europe are added to the ocean freight demand, this will result in an 8% increase in the already congested trade route. In more simplistic terms, the ‘loaf of bread’ on our table will be compromised… How far will this go? To add more ‘salt to the wound’, China’s Shanghai is currently under strict lockdown due to the covid pandemic – a city of 25 million remains locked inside. James George Stavridis, a retired United States Navy admiral and Chair of the Board of Trustees of the Rockefeller Foundation – has the background and experience to be a leading voice on the current invasion of Ukraine. Stavridis earned a Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy in 1983 and a PhD in International Relations in 1984 from The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. Bestselling Author of books such as The History and Geopolitics of World’s Oceans and 2034: A Novel of the Next World War – Stavridis points to the tragic reality we are all aware of that history repeats itself: In Feb 1945 during the Bombing of Dresden in World War II, the cultural center of Germany and capital of the German state of Saxony - in the final hours of war, the English and Americans decided to bomb Dresden; the city was literally pulverized with bombs and incendiary devices, killing 25,000 innocent people including women and children. On 6 and 9th of August 1945, the United States detonated two nuclear weapons over the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki respectively. Here again, there was a controversial dispute whether they should bomb the cultural center of Kyoto - the ancient capital home to more than 2,000 Buddhist temples and Shinto shrines, including 17 World Heritage Sites, was at the top of the list – Nagasaki was not even on a list of target cities for the atomic bomb. Rumor has it that Kyoto was not bombed either because of bad weather conditions or the aircraft experienced possible technical damage and they went for Hiroshima instead. The two bombings killed between 129,000 and 226,000 people, most of whom were civilians and remain to date, the only use of nuclear weapons in armed conflict. In recent Kathimerini 12.4.22, Stavridis noted that he sees a 60-65% chance that the Ukraine war will end with some kind of deal that sees Russia controlling 10-15% of Ukraine and the rest of the country carrying on as a sovereign nation, with Zelensky still as President and the Ukrainians decide that for them, in this moment, neutrality makes more sense. Going back to our shipping industry, another major predicament I’d like to touch upon is the dreadful impact on crews.
Let us not forget that in the shipping chain, seafarers are the vital component in moving cargo. As we are all aware, mixed crews are very common on our vessels. Currently, on the one hand we have this tragic war – while on the other hand, the cultures which are called upon to be at war with one another, share the same space on the ship and must work in harmony to secure their own safety and the safety of the vessel - how ironic can the situation be ?! We do not have sufficient evidence nor can we be inside Putin’s mind. In my humble view, political correctness and diplomacy are needed in abundance in order for peace to prevail and regretfully there is a huge void when it comes to both of these fundamentals. Diplomacy is the only catalyst, which can literally diffuse this war, which is why I personally fear that we may have a situation in our hands that may last for years. Putin was offended when his ‘military operation’ was called a ‘war’ – his ‘twisted’ thought process is what is terrifying. In shipping, when in the past we had radio telephones, one had to be on the right wavelength in order to be tuned into the line of communication. If you were not tuned into the same wavelength, you could not communicate. With Putin, we have the case of a completely different wavelength to the rest of the world. History repeats itself as mentioned and as I’ve said on numerous occasions in the past during shipping forums, regrettably at the end of the day, ‘it’s all about money’. We cannot talk about ‘prosperity’ in shipping just because this war is not on our doorstep. No doubt when the war began, we all had the fear, what if Erdogan is ‘inspired’ by Putin and decides to put forward his plans to invade Greece? The fact that Putin has come face to face with the relentless resistance of the Ukrainians has certainly been a catalyst / deterrent for Erdogan. Indeed, Erdogan will now have to think twice about acting out on his ‘vision’. The spirit of the Ukraine soldier to protect his family and land is undeniably stronger than the spirit of the Russian invader – the Ukraine people will not give in and Russia will certainly have to find a way to ‘window dress’ their loss. I honestly have never felt more uncertainty than at the present time. I hope God is with us and that in some miraculous way, a solution can be found and put an end to this war and to the tragic loss of innocent lives.