SGN NI - Forecast Capacity Statement - 2016

Forecast Network Capacity Statement for Gas Year 2016/17 (1st Oct 2016 – 30th Sep 2017)

March 2016

Contents 1

Licence obligation to publish a Forecast Network Capacity Statement ............................................ 3

2

Determining the Forecast Network Capacity Requirement for Gas Year 2016/2017 ........................ 3

3

Conclusion and Recommendation ................................................................................................. 3

2

Forecast Network Exit Capacity

1

[Public Draft]

Licence obligation to publish a Forecast Network Capacity Statement As per licence condition 2.19 of the Scotia Gas Networks Northern Ireland Limited (now SGN Natural Gas) conveyance licence, SGN Natural Gas book and hold exit capacity on the Postalised Transmission Network for all Suppliers who operate within our Licenced Area.

The licence requires SGN Natural Gas to hold capacity to meet the daily firm demand from network consumers on a 1 in 20 peak day.

To facilitate the determination of the required capacity, the licence requires SGN Natural Gas to produce and publish an annual draft statement of its best estimate of Forecast Network Capacity Requirement for the following Gas Year and to consult interested parties. To that end, a draft network capacity statement was issued in February 2016, inviting interested parties to make representations on the content.

2

Determining the Forecast Network Capacity Requirement for Gas Year 2016/2017 SGN Natural Gas was awarded a distribution conveyance licence on 11th February 2015 as part of the Gas to the West project to develop low pressure gas infrastructure to convey gas to the towns specified within the licence.

Work has commenced on the construction of the first phase of the project to take gas to Strabane, with gas expected to flow in October 2016. The remaining phases in other areas will not flow gas during the Gas Year 2016/17 and, therefore, are not relevant to this statement.

As there are currently no gas consumers and, therefore, no historical gas consumption data, the forecast 1 in 20 peak day demand for Gas Year 2016/17 is based on the current forecast number and pattern of gas connections which is a function of the development of the network and the corresponding estimate of gas use by potential consumers along the proposed pipeline route, which is subject to ongoing design and discussion with the Utility Regulator as part of the GD17 price control process.

Whilst SGN Natural Gas did not receive any responses to our draft network capacity statement, we have continued to review the capacity requirements of consumers that are expected to connect to our network during gas year 2016/17. This has allowed us to modify the capacity requirement forecast in our draft statement and our current best available forecast suggests a Forecast Network Capacity Requirement and corresponding daily firm exit capacity for Gas Year 2016/17 of 440 MWh (15013 therms).

While the Transmission System Operators’ Transportation Codes now permit exit capacity bookings for a period up to 15 years it is our intention to only book exit capacity for 1 year at this stage, until greater clarity is available regarding development of the Gas to the West network and consumer connections as part of the GD17 process and ongoing stakeholder engagement.

3

Conclusion and Recommendation The methodology used to produce this Forecast Network Capacity Statement for Gas Year 2016/17 is considered to be fit for purpose.

Therefore, SGN Natural Gas will submit a booking application for 440MWh (15013 therms) of firm daily exit capacity for Gas Year 2016/17.

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19th February 2016